The Impact of Climate Change on the Hydro-Climate of Malaysia Based on IPCC Fifth Assesment Report.

a) CCSM4 MIROC5
MRICGCM3 GFDLESM2M
IPSLCM5ALR
Observed

79

b)

DEM (m)

Figure 5.5 - Simulated 10-year average annual rainfall (mm) over (a) Peninsular Malaysia and
(b) Sabah-Sarawak during 1980 – 1990, by downscaling the control run data from five global
climate models, against observations.

80

a) CCSM4 MIROC5

MRICGCM3 GFDLESM2M

IPSLCM5ALR Observed

81

b)

DEM (m)

Figure 5.6 - Simulated 10-year average annual rainfall (mm) over (a) Peninsular Malaysia and
(b) Sabah-Sarawak during 1990 – 2000, by downscaling the control run data from five global
climate models, against observations.

82

a) CCSM4 MIROC5
MRI-CGCM3 GFDL-ESM2M

IPSL-CM5A-LR DEM

83

b) MIROC5
CCSM4 GFDL-ESM2M

MRI-CGCM3

IPSL-CM5A-MR DEM

DEM (m)

Figure 5.7 - Simulated 10-year average air temperature (oC) over (a) Peninsular Malaysia and
(b) Sabah-Sarawak during 1970 – 1980 by downscaling the control run data from five global
climate models.

84

a) CCSM4 MIROC5
MRI-CGCM3 GFDL-ESM2M

IPSL-CM5A-LR DEM

85

b) MIROC5
CCSM4 GFDL-ESM2M

MRI-CGCM3

IPSL-CM5A-MR DEM

DEM (m)

Figure 5.8 - Simulated 10-year average air temperature (oC) over (a) Peninsular Malaysia and
(b) Sabah-Sarawak during 1980 – 1990 by downscaling the control run data from five global
climate models.

86

a) CCSM4 MIROC5
MRI-CGCM3 GFDL-ESM2M

IPSL-CM5A-LR DEM

87

b) MIROC5
CCSM4 GFDL-ESM2M

MRI-CGCM3

IPSL-CM5A-MR DEM

DEM (m)

Figure 5.9 - Simulated 10-year average air temperature (oC) over (a) Peninsular Malaysia and
(b) Sabah-Sarawak during 1990 – 2000 by downscaling the control run data from five global
climate models.

88

2500 Pusat Pertanian Lundang (40664)
2000
Precipitation (mm/mon) 1500 CCSM4
1000 MIROC5
1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
500 GFDLES
0 IPSLCM
Observed
1/31/1970
2500 1/31/2000
2000
1500 Pusat Kesihatan Bkt. Bendera (41533)
1000
Precipitation (mm/mon) CCSM4
500 MIROC5
0 1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
GFDLES
1/31/1970 IPSLCM
2500 Observed
2000
1500 1/31/2000
1000
Hospital Kulim (41540)
500
Precipitation (mm/mon) 0 CCSM4
MIROC5
1/31/1970 1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
2500 GFDLES
2000 IPSLCM
1500 Observed
1000
1/31/2000
500
0 Hospital Sungai Petani (41543)

Precipitation (mm/mon) 1/31/1970 CCSM4
MIROC5
1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
GFDLES
IPSLCM
Observed

1/31/2000

89

2500 P.P. Batu Seketol (41549)
2000
Precipitation (mm/mon) 1500 CCSM4
1000 MIROC5
1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
500 GFDLES
0 IPSLCM
Observed
1/31/1970
2500 1/31/2000
2000
1500 Ampangan Pedu (41619)
1000
Precipitation (mm/mon) CCSM4
500 MIROC5
0 1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
GFDLES
1/31/1970 IPSLCM
2500 Observed
2000
1500 1/31/2000
1000
Ampangan Muda (41638)
500
Precipitation (mm/mon) 0 CCSM4
MIROC5
1/31/1970 1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
2500 GFDLES
2000 IPSLCM
1500 Observed
1000
1/31/2000
500
0 P.P.Tanaman Kampong Awah (42360)

Precipitation (mm/mon) 1/31/1970 CCSM4
MIROC5
1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
GFDLES
IPSLCM
Observed

1/31/2000

90

2500 Mardi Cameron Highlands (42421)
2000
Precipitation (mm/mon) 1500 CCSM4
1000 MIROC5
1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
500 GFDLES
0 Sultan Yusof Jor (42460) IPSLCM
Observed
Precipitation (mm/mon) 1/31/1970
2500 1/31/2000
2000 1/31/1980 1/31/1990
1500 CCSM4
1000 Mardi Sungai Baging (42464) MIROC5
MRICGC
Precipitation (mm/mon) 500 GFDLES
0 IPSLCM
1/31/1980 1/31/1990 Observed
1/31/1970
2500 Hospital Teluk Intan (43402) 1/31/2000
2000
Precipitation (mm/mon) 1500 CCSM4
1000 MIROC5
1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
500 GFDLES
0 IPSLCM
Observed
1/31/1970
1/31/2000
2500
2000 CCSM4
1500 MIROC5
1000 MRICGC
GFDLES
500 IPSLCM
0 Observed

1/31/1970 1/31/2000

91

2500 Hospital Kampar (43414)
2000
Precipitation (mm/mon) 1500 CCSM4
1000 MIROC5
1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
500 GFDLES
0 Hospital Batu Gajah (43417) IPSLCM
Observed
Precipitation (mm/mon) 1/31/1970
2500 1/31/2000
2000 1/31/1980 1/31/1990
1500 CCSM4
1000 Hospital Bahagia Ulu Kinta (43419) MIROC5
MRICGC
Precipitation (mm/mon) 500 GFDLES
0 IPSLCM
1/31/1980 1/31/1990 Observed
1/31/1970
2500 Hospital Kuala Kangsar (43447) 1/31/2000
2000
Precipitation (mm/mon) 1500 CCSM4
1000 MIROC5
1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
500 GFDLES
0 IPSLCM
Observed
1/31/1970
2500 1/31/2000
2000
1500 CCSM4
1000 MIROC5
MRICGC
500 GFDLES
0 IPSLCM
Observed
1/31/1970
1/31/2000

92

2500 JKR Bagan Serai (43503)
2000
Precipitation (mm/mon) 1500 CCSM4
1000 MIROC5
1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
500 GFDLES
0 IPSLCM
Observed
1/31/1970
2500 1/31/2000
2000
1500 Hospital Lenggong (43505)
1000
Precipitation (mm/mon) CCSM4
500 MIROC5
0 1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
GFDLES
1/31/1970 IPSLCM
2500 Observed
2000
1500 1/31/2000
1000
Hospital Parit Buntar (43520)
500
Precipitation (mm/mon) 0 CCSM4
MIROC5
1/31/1970 MRICGC
2500 GFDLES
2000 IPSLCM
1500 Observed
1000
1/31/1980 1/31/1990 1/31/2000
500
0 Banting Oil Palm Research Stn. (44256)

Precipitation (mm/mon) 1/31/1970 CCSM4
MIROC5
1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
GFDLES
IPSLCM
Observed

1/31/2000

93

2500 Rumah Api One Fathom Bank (44258)
2000
Precipitation (mm/mon) 1500 CCSM4
1000 MIROC5
1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
500 GFDLES
0 IPSLCM
Observed
1/31/1970
2500 1/31/2000
2000
1500 Hospital Pontian (47115)
1000
Precipitation (mm/mon) CCSM4
500 MIROC5
0 1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
GFDLES
1/31/1970 IPSLCM
2500 Observed
2000
1500 1/31/2000
1000
Hospital Tangkak (47206)
500
Precipitation (mm/mon) 0 CCSM4
MIROC5
1/31/1970 1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
2500 GFDLES
2000 IPSLCM
1500 Observed
1000
1/31/2000
500
0 Mardi Jerangau (49482)

Precipitation (mm/mon) 1/31/1970 CCSM4
MIROC5
1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
GFDLES
IPSLCM
Observed

1/31/2000

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

Figure 5.10 – Monthly mean of observed and simulated rainfall during 1970-2000 period
at the selected gauge locations in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah-Sarawak. Simulations
correspond to the dynamically-downscaled five GCM control run simulations

114

Temperature (oC) 30 Prai (41529) CCSM4
20 MIROC5
Temperature (oC) 10 1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
1/31/1980 GFDLES
Temperature (oC) 0 1/31/1980 Pulau Langkawi (48600) IPSLCM
1/31/1970 1/31/1980 Observed
Temperature (oC) 1/31/1980 1/31/1990 1/31/2000
30 1/31/1980
Temperature (oC) 20 1/31/1980 Alor Setar (48603) CCSM4
10 MIROC5
Temperature (oC) 1/31/1990 MRICGC
0 GFDLES
Temperature (oC) 1/31/1970 Chuping (48604) IPSLCM
Observed
30 1/31/1990 1/31/2000
20
10 Kuala Krai (48616) CCSM4
MIROC5
0 1/31/1990 MRICGC
1/31/1970 GFDLES
Kuala Terengganu Airport (48618) IPSLCM
30 Observed
20 1/31/1990 1/31/2000
10
Sitiawan (48620) CCSM4
0 MIROC5
1/31/1970 1/31/1990 MRICGC
GFDLES
30 IPSLCM
20 Observed
10 1/31/2000

0 CCSM4
1/31/1970 MIROC5
MRICGC
30 GFDLES
20 IPSLCM
10 Observed
1/31/2000
0
1/31/1970 CCSM4
MIROC5
30 MRICGC
20 GFDLES
10 IPSLCM
Observed
0 1/31/2000
1/31/1970
CCSM4
MIROC5
MRICGC
GFDLES
IPSLCM
Observed
1/31/2000

115

Temperature (oC) 30 Ipoh (48625) CCSM4
20 MIROC5
Temperature (oC) 10 1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
1/31/1980 GFDLES
Temperature (oC) 0 1/31/1980 Batu Embun (48642) IPSLCM
1/31/1970 1/31/1980 Observed
Temperature (oC) 1/31/1980 1/31/1990 1/31/2000
30 1/31/1980
Temperature (oC) 20 1/31/1980 Subang (48647) CCSM4
10 MIROC5
Temperature (oC) 1/31/1990 MRICGC
0 GFDLES
Temperature (oC) 1/31/1970 Muadzam Shah (48649) IPSLCM
Observed
30 1/31/1990 1/31/2000
20
10 Cameron Highlands (48632) CCSM4
MIROC5
0 1/31/1990 MRICGC
1/31/1970 GFDLES
Temerloh (48653) IPSLCM
30 Observed
20 1/31/1990 1/31/2000
10
Kuantan (48657) CCSM4
0 MIROC5
1/31/1970 1/31/1990 MRICGC
116 GFDLES
30 IPSLCM
20 Observed
10 1/31/2000

0 CCSM4
1/31/1970 MIROC5
MRICGC
30 GFDLES
20 IPSLCM
10 Observed
1/31/2000
0
1/31/1970 CCSM4
MIROC5
30 MRICGC
20 GFDLES
10 IPSLCM
Observed
0 1/31/2000
1/31/1970
CCSM4
MIROC5
MRICGC
GFDLES
IPSLCM
Observed
1/31/2000

Malacca (48665) CCSM4
MIROC5
Temperature (oC) 30 MRICGC
GFDLES
20 1/31/1980 1/31/1990 IPSLCM
Observed
10 Kluang (48672) 1/31/2000

Temperature (oC) 0 CCSM4
1/31/1970 MIROC5
1/31/1980 1/31/1990 MRICGC
30 GFDLES
Mersing (48674) IPSLCM
20 Observed
Temperature (oC) 1/31/2000
10
1/31/1980 1/31/1990 CCSM4
0 MIROC5
1/31/1970 Senai (48679) MRICGC
GFDLES
Temperature (oC) 30 IPSLCM
Observed
20 1/31/1980 1/31/1990 1/31/2000
Kuching
10 CCSM4
MIROC5
0 MRICGC
1/31/1970 GFDLES
IPSLCM
30 Observed
1/31/2000
20
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
10 Observation GFDL MIROC
CCSM4 IPSL Kuching
0
1/31/1970 Sri Aman

30 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
25 Observation GFDL MIROC
20
15
10

5
0
1970

35
30
25
20
15
10

5
0
1970

CCSM4 IPSL Kuching

117

Sibu

30 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
25
20 Observation CCSM4 GFDL IPSL MIROC MRI
15
10 Miri

5 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
0 Observation GFDL MIROC
1970 CCSM4 IPSL MRI

30 Bintulu
25
20 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
15 Observation GFDL MIROC
10 CCSM4 IPSL MRI

5 Labuan
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Observation GFDL MIROC
30 CCSM4 IPSL MRI
25
20 Kota Kinabalu
15
10 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

5
0
1970

30
25
20
15
10

5
0
1970

30
25
20
15
10

5
0
1970

Observation CCSM4 GFDL IPSL MIROC MRI

118

Kudat

30 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
25
20
15
10

5
0
1970

Observation CCSM4 GFDL IPSL MIROC MRI

Tawau

30 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
25
20
15
10

5
0
1970

Observation CCSM4 GFDL IPSL MIROC MRI

Sandakan

30 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
25
20
15
10

5
0
1970

Observation CCSM4 GFDL IPSL MIROC MRI

Figure 5.11 - Monthly mean of observed and simulated surface air temperature during
1970-2000 period at selected gauge locations in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah-Sarawak.
Simulations correspond to the dynamically-downscaled five GCM control run
simulations.

119

6. ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE
HYDROCLIMATE OF PENINSULAR MALAYSIA IN THE 21ST CENTURY

Once the WRF-PM and WRF-SS were validated, they were then used for downscaling 16
future climate projections from five global coupled atmospheric-oceanic general circulation
models under 4 RCPs emission scenarios.

The downscaled hydro-climate data of 16 future climate projections for the future 2010-
2100 period were then ensemble averaged, and the ensemble averages were compared
against the corresponding historical hydro-climate simulation data for the 1970-2000
period in order to assess the impact of climate change on the hydro-climate of Peninsular
Malaysia as well as Sabah-Sarawak, in terms of rainfall, air temperature,
evapotranspiration, relative humidity, downward shortwave radiation, and wind speed by
graphical and statistical methods. In the assessment of future hydro-climate conditions,
the results are also presented by ensemble mean of the historical (1970-2000), the early 21st
century (2011-2040), the middle 21st century (2041-2070), and the late 21st century (2071-
2100) over the 13 watersheds and 12 coastal regions in Peninsular Malaysia, and 39
subregions of Sabah and Sarawak states.

Sabah and Sarawak states of Malaysia are separated into 39 hydro-climatic subregions. It is
noted that although Brunei had to be delineated in the process of the delineation of the
subregions of Sabah and Sarawak, it is not studied further.
The discussions within the following sub-chapters for each hydro-climate parameter will be
divided according to each region respectively – Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah-Sarawak.

6.1. Rainfall

6.1.1. Peninsular Malaysia
Time series plots of annual accumulated rainfall during the historical (1970-2000) and the
projected future (2010-2100) conditions for 13 watersheds (Batu Pahat, Johor, Muda, Kelang,
Kelantan, Linggi, Muar, Pahang, Perak, Selangor, Dungun, Kemaman, and Kuantan) and 12
coastal regions in Peninsular Malaysia are presented in Figures 6.1 and 6.2, respectively.
Future conditions are presented in terms of individual projections (for RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5)

120

and the ensemble average of the projections. In general, the ensemble average of the annual
rainfall gradually increases during the 21st century although the annual rainfall in each of the
16 projections has large fluctuations.

Figure 6.3 and Tables 6.1-6.2 show the long-term mean of the annual rainfall (mm) during the
historical period (1970-2000), the early 21st century (2011-2040), the middle 21st century
(2041-2070), and the late 21st century (2071-2100), as well as the change in the long-term
mean of the annual rainfall from the historical period, to the early, middle, and late 21st
century for each of 13 watersheds and 12 coastal regions in Peninsular Malaysia.

In comparison to the historical period, the change in the long-term mean annual rainfall over
the 13 watersheds in Peninsular Malaysia varies from 3.4 percent in Batu Pahat to 12.0 percent
in Muda in the early 21st century, from 7.0 percent in Batu Pahat to 18.3 percent in Muda in
the middle 21st century, and 8.3 percent in Pahang to 22.0 percent in Muda in the late 21st
century. In comparison to the historical period, the change in the long-term mean annual
rainfall over the 12 coastal regions in Peninsular Malaysia varies from 1.7 percent in Coastal
Region 6 to 10.1 percent in Coastal Region 2 in the early 21st century, from 5.8 percent in
Coastal Region 7 to 15.4 percent in Coastal Region 2 in the middle 21st century, and 9.0
percent in Coastal Region 7 to 23.6 percent in Coastal Region 12 in the late 21st century.

The long-term mean annual rainfall values for 13 watersheds and 12 coastal regions in
Peninsular Malaysia are always higher in the early, middle, and late 21st century when
compared to those in the historical period.

Batu Pahat

121

Johor
Muda
Kelang

122

Kelantan
Linggi
Muar

123

Pahang
Perak
Selangor

124

Dungun

Kemaman

Kuantan

Figure 6.1 - Time series plots of the annual accumulated rainfall during the historical (1970-
2000) and the projected future (2010-2100) conditions for 13 watersheds in Peninsular
Malaysia. Future conditions are in terms of individual projections and the ensemble average
of the projections.

125

Coastal Region 1
Coastal Region 2
Coastal Region 3

126

Coastal Region 4
Coastal Region 5
Coastal Region 6

127

Coastal Region 7
Coastal Region 8
Coastal Region 9

128