tast

Department of Rail Transport Final Report 1-23 Status Progress ndaries? sity. and the network in the metropolitan area, the number of passengers obtained from the model can be used to determine the model of the rail mass transit system in which form it should be. Planning Data used for forecast the number of passengers, the expansion of the city, population density in the future, to use in planning the implementation of the electric train project. ouncil ticularly having sultants ectively should ransport s in the ment in in each agencies Done - The advisory group was undertaken by the advisory group to use the data obtained from the model development. policy analysis economic and financial value analysis and the physical characteristics of each route Used to prioritize each route. ouncil ging the ( Value benefits Question Answered - Win For Tax has a draft Act on obtaining benefits from area development. Basic public utilities in transportation, which FPO is the organizer of. The advisory group has presented on the use of revenue to support rail transport. - Value Capture Tax due to the Land and Building Tax Act which the local government organization has the power to collect The advisory group proposed to amend the Act by allowing local government organizations to Part of the proceeds will be allocated to the Ministry of Finance for

TDepartment of Rail Transport Final Report 1-24 No. comment 3.44 Representative of the Public Debt Management Office Ask about the factors used in considering the prioritization of the proterms of factors related to the readiness of the project Because the conhas proposed that the Red Line Project using the project status durpreparation of PPP , which is currently not a PPP joint venture, but wloans to invest in infrastructure instead How will the advisory group detthe factors? 3.45 Representative of Bangkok Mass Transit System Public Company Limited When new roads are added, there will be no secondary mass transit sFeeder ). supported by when cutting a new road Within 5 years, realdevelopment will follow, resulting in travel . If there is no public traPeople therefore choose to use personal cars. If during the cutting roads, public transportation or Feeder systems are provided to supportreduce the use of private cars. By adding public transport can be implem

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Status Progress the maintenance and development of the mass transit system. - It is presented in a broad way. Which if proposing to amend all local administrative organizations may not be relevant because local administrative organizations both in urban and non-urban areas do not use the same mass transit system Therefore, there is a guideline for the Ministry of Finance to allocate the budget once again. oject. In nsultant ring the will use termine Question Answered - The displayed status of the project's readiness of the red line indicates that PPP, according to the representative of the PMO, has informed that it is now using a loan form to invest in infrastructure, with the M-MAP 2 project providing the operation. The aforementioned model has the same level of readiness as the project in the process of PPP preparation, where the level of score will be more or less depending on the readiness to proceed with the construction. ystem ( l estate ansport of new t, it will mented Acknowledged The consultant took it into consideration.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) No. comment by adding new lines. Or adjust the route of existing lines to accommpassengers in the area. 3.46 Representative of Bangkok Mass Transit System Public Company Limited of the Viabus application should be promoted. To access the public trsystem that serves the Soi to believe in the Feeder system to access the train system. Instead of using a motorcycle taxi service that has a highthan public transportation in the alley and should be considered There that requires a Feeder system within the newly constructed housing estaa radius from a BTS station within a distance of 5 kilometers serving reTo reduce the burden of providing the government's Feeder system, whthat the people in the village will be able to manage the Feeder bus scof each village very well. 3.47 Representative of Bangkok Mass Transit System Public Company Limited If the government or company Airports of Thailand Co., Ltd. has subudget. It should promote the connection of the APM electric train syconnect to the Sai Yud BTS station in order to increase convenienprovide alternative travel options for passengers. 3.48 Director of Strategy and Planning Division, DRT. the M-MAP review , the M-MAP 2 Blueprint and the proposed routes oauthorities. Consultants should use the results from the model to anaorder to propose new routes in addition to the networks that havreviewed and proposed based on the suitability of passenger traffic or consultants consider that the networks which has been studied or prop

Department of Rail Transport Final Report 1-25 Status Progress modate ansport electric her fare is a law ate. with esidents ich sees chedule Acknowledged The consultant took it into consideration. ufficient stem to nce and Acknowledged The consultant took it into consideration. of local alyze in ve been let the posed If Done Consultant acknowledged and take action

TDepartment of Rail Transport Final Report 1-26 No. comment the results of the model indicate whether it is appropriate or not woinvestment. Let the consultant consider cutting off the said network. 3.49 Director of Strategy and Planning Division, DRT. In the project implementation plan, there should be a share of the inveburden in the plan, for example, what proportion should the publicinvest? Which investment proportion should be privately owned? 3.50 Director of Strategy and Planning Division, DRT. Service Area Coverage When the project plan is completed and the prioeach route have been set. How much will the service area be covered acto the project implementation phase? 3.51 Representative of the Department of Land Transport The contents of the book outline an initial environmental impact study.IEE study of recommended routes in the field of transport. The inforused by the consultant is the information of the year 2019, which hchanged, that is, buses will be taken care of by the Department oTransport, which is currently the BMK is only one operator. And in details may not match the current information. Consultants can coorequesting new information with the Department of Land Transport. 3.52 BMTA representative - Feeder BMTA has prepared in the form of a normal route that has through the rail mass transit system, such as various electric train linhave been planned. Including the electric train routes that will open fservices. which is already a licensed vehicle However, if there is a Feederthat violates regulations when developing a full electric train network There will be a route that is a Feeder service for electric trains, pr

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Status Progress orth the estment c sector Done Consultant acknowledged and take action orities of ccording Done Consultant acknowledged and take action . It is an rmation as now of Land various ordinate Acknowledged In the part of the IEE , information on traffic networks and intersections of the project route and roads are used in detail. Implemented in the EIA stage. a route nes that for new r system system oviding Done In implementing the Go Together policy with the Feeder system , discussions must be made with the DLT, the BMTA , and the shared vehicle operators. To jointly lay out the route and to obtain permission from the Land Transport Board. Consider the next route.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) No. comment services between stations because the government gives priority to system as the main system. 3.53 Representative of the Department of Land Transport DLT will take care of all bus routes in the event that a new route is sethe consultant has asked. Please note that it has to be considered on aby-route basis due to many factors such as route overlap and manyfactors. therefore unable to answer questions from consultants mconsidered on a route-by-way basis. 4 Part 4: In-House Technical Arms Operations 5 Part 5: Public relations, Participation, and Preliminary Environmental Impact S5.1 The consultant is prohibited from offering further suggested routes. If the matter gof hand. Because it may mislead the public. 5.2 About public relations, if it is a media that is a television station, a communicationwhole country, but the public transport system only in Bangkok and its vicinpublicize all over the country may not be the answer. Moreover, most of the users are young. It is important to choose a media that can communicate with thaudience. Paper pamphlets are reduced. Most of them provide a digital focus. OFacebook platform, only hundreds have gotten. We perhaps have to find a neHowever, once the network information is done, there may be more interest. Bdon't just spread out new routes, as it may cause people to misunderstand or suff5.3 According to the opinion of the working group, it was noted that the number of visthe Facebook Fan page of the M-MAP 2 project was quite low. Asked the consuincrease public relations through digital and online media by focusing on the targetwhich are students, students and working age according to the chairman of the wgroup commented.

Department of Rail Transport Final Report 1-27 Status Progress the rail et up as a routey other must be Done If during rush hour, the system provided as Feeder may not accept passengers on the way, such as running from the outskirts of the city. to the train station Maybe in measures similar to the Mao Mao project of the Red Line is to pay the fare on a monthly basis which can be exceeded both in the transportation system, rail and bus collisions in order not to let the public cost duplicate Studies gets out Acknowledged The consultant acknowledged and take action n for the nity. To service e target On the ew way. But now fer. Acknowledged The consultant acknowledged and take action sitors to ltant to t groups working Done The consultants have organized various activities to increase the number of visitors through the project's Facebook Fan page. Details are shown in Section 7.1.1.

TDepartment of Rail Transport Final Report 1-28 No. comment 5.4 Ask to plan a project seminar meeting. and project sub-group meetings in early 20to the election period 5.5 Seminar due to the close of the election Prepare a plan for organizing a seminathere is an election. 6 Comments, Suggestions, and Others 6.1 From the summary of comparing segments table, It was found that some of threported by the consultant was in progress. Asked the consultant to compleprocess and accept the opinions of the working group to take action and reportnext progress report. 6.2 The consultant shall correct the station name and route name of the sky train pro6.3 For data surveys, the consultant must adjust the number of questionnaires in accowith the opinion of the working group. The consultant shall conduct a surveyquestionnaire to the amount specified in the consultant employment contract andclarify to the meeting. 6.4 In surveying the area, the consultant's original schedule was September 1, 202consultant had explored the Activity Base Model , which had previously been suthat department of rail transport (DRT) and the Japan International Cooperation(JICA) should be involved and observe the survey. The consultant shall prepareand send it to Department of rail transport (DRT) for for further proceedings.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Status Progress 023 due Acknowledged The consultant acknowledged and take action ar when Acknowledged The consultant acknowledged and take action he work ete the t in the Done In the the summary of comparing segments table, the consultant collect all the comments from every meeting and clarify them in every round of submission of the report. oject. Done The consultant has checked the name of the line and the name of the station in every point of the report. ordance y of the d further Done The consultant has completed the survey and the number of survey results is not less than indicated by the consultant's employment contract. 22. The ggested Agency e a plan Done The survey has been carried out and The consultant has completed the field visit to observe the survey.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 1-29 1.7 Problems and Obstacles during project implementation and solutions 1.7.1 Problems and Obstacles Due to the epidemic situation of COVID-19 in Thailand, the number of infected people and deaths has continued to increase. The government has declared a state of emergency throughout the kingdom. This includes measures to reduce the risk of the spread of COVID-19, such as refraining from unnecessary travel and distance, asking for cooperation from both government and private agencies to work from home, conducting online learning for students, etc., which affects travel behavior in the study area. This includes affecting the study plan of the project that has been set to conduct a travel survey. This is the data needed to develop a rail travel demand forecasting model. And in the survey, it is necessary to go to the survey area to interview the traveler. To comply with measures to reduce the risk of the COVID-19 epidemic, the schedule for survey data from November 2021 to December 2021 has been postponed until the situation of the epidemic improves and because of the study in this project It is a sequence of work in which the impact of the absence of travel surveys affects other part of work that rely on data from the survey results, such as work on the development of rail travel demand forecasting models, etc., as well as the part of network development planning that requires Based on the results obtained from the model, it is affected accordingly. As a result, it is unable to proceed as planned, resulting in insufficient amount of work to be done with the amount of work that needs to be done at the time of submission of the progress report 2, which was originally scheduled to be sent within 6th month of operation (January 2022) and the Interim report, which was originally scheduled to be sent within 9th month of operation (April 2022), have been postponed and it was delivered in August 2022. Because of the postponement of the Interim report submission deadline, it has continued to affect the submission of all remaining reports. As a result, the progress report No.3 originally scheduled to be submitted in July 2022 has been postponed. 1.7.2 Solution According to the problems and obstacles that arise and to allow the project can continue. The consultant then proceeded to perform the work that can be performed first without the need for data from survey results and model results. For example, the improvement of the transport network in the model, analysis and preparation Socio-Economic data, procurement of Software (User Licenses), work in the part of recommending measures including draft laws, regulations, and other relevant regulations, etc. So that the amount of work is sufficient for the work that has been planned. As a result, the progress report 2 can be submitted in March 2022, and the Interim report can be submitted in August 2022. Subsequently, a travel survey was conducted in September 2022 – November 2022, this makes the amount of progress in the work enough to meet the plan for the submitting of the Progress Report No.3. As a result, the Progress Report No.3 can be submitted in December 2022.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 1-30 1.8 Summary of the progress of the project implementation 1.8.1 Summary of the overall progress of the project implementation. Overview of the consultants' operations according to the Final Report. The consultants have completed. Figure 1.8.1-1 Plan – Operation Result (S-Curve) of Final Report

Data Collection and Data Review 02

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-1 CHAPTER 2 Data Collection and Data Review (TOR 3.1) 2.1 Study toward direction of urban expansion (TOR 3.1.2) Aims of this section are to suggest the development guideline in the study area. The consultant team had collected several data that relate toward future land use changes and trip pattern that may changes in the study area. The content of data in this section consists of 1) Land use development guideline: (Draft) Bangkok Metropolitan area and its Vicinities B.E 2580, (Draft) Central Regional Plan, and (Draft) Eastern Regional Plan; 2) Urban comprehensive plan: provincial comprehensive plan, urban comprehensive plan, and community comprehensive plan which either on-going in planning process or implementing in present; 3) Existing land use; and 4) The large-scale proposed development projects. Urban data analysis had done in this section to estimate the direction of urban expansion in Bangkok Metropolitan Area and its Vicinities. The details can be described as follows 2.1.1 Reviewing towards Land Use Policies 1) (Draft) Bangkok Metropolitan area and its Vicinities B.E 2580 Department of Town and Country Planning (DPT) had established the development guideline called Bangkok Metropolitan and Vicinities Regional Plan B.E 2580 which started the plan establishment in B.E 2550 This regional plan is intended to implement in Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) consisting of the six provinces are Bangkok, Nonthaburi, Pathumthani, Samutprakarn, Samut Sakhon and Nakhon Pathom. Aims of this proposed land use policies are to create the regional development guideline in BMR potential and raise an opportunity of spatial development in systematic and strategic approach Later in 2017, the Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning was improved the Bangkok Metropolitan area and its Vicinities B.E. 2600 to develop this area into an international business center, international medical and health education center, as well as being the transportation hub of the ASEAN region linking the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) development project. Figure 2.1.1-1 shown the (Draft) Bangkok Metropolitan area and its Vicinities B.E 2580 which this project is regarded as the main land use policy plan to guides the direction of urban and infrastructure development in the study area. ( Draft) Bangkok Metropolitan area and its Vicinities B.E 2580 defined the roles and development guidelines as follows: - Center of Bangkok and its vicinities was designed to be the inner and middle Bangkok areas which had the 1 st Ring Road or Ratchadaphisek Road as the boundary. The main commercial center (CBD) area located in Silom, Sathorn, Pathumwan, Asoke and Rama 9. It has been designated a new commercial area around the rail mass transit center, namely Bang Sue center, Makkasan center. and Taksin center and focusing on the area development around the rail mass transit station according to the concept of Transit Oriented Development (TOD).

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecastingthe demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-2 - The main transportation axis of the Bangkok Metropolitan area and its vicinities was designed to be the economic corridor in the North-South corridor, the Southern corridor, and the Southern Coastal corridor that connecting the inner and middle Bangkok areas to surrounding satellite cities by straight to the north along Phaholyothin Road, the south along Rama II Road, the east along Rangsit-Nakhon Nayok Road and Highway No. 7, and the west along Rattanathibet Road. - There was determined 3 levels of satellite cities: 1) sub-center cities to be a source of employment and residence in the suburbs of Bangkok, namely Salaya, Bang Yai, RangsitKhlong Luang, Suvarnabhumi - Lat Krabang, Samut Prakan, and Bang Khun Thian, 2 ) commercial and production center in vicinities, namely Mueang Nakhon Pathom, Mueang Samut Sakhon, Mueang Bang Bo, and Mueang Nong Suea, and 3) small satellite cities to serving a commercial services in agricultural areas, namely Mueang Kamphaeng Saen, Sai Noi, Krathum Baen, Phra Pradaeng, Bang Phli. Nong Chok and Thanyaburi. - Using the route of the 1 st Ring Road (Ratchadaphisek Road) , the 2nd Ring Road (Kanchanaphisek Road) and the 3rd Ring Road as the dividing line of concentration in the development of the area by settled 1) the area in the 1st Ring Road will be a high dense development area, which is a high-density of commercial and residential area, 2) the area between the 1st and 2nd Ring Roads will be an important supporting area of commercial and residential development in the future, and 3) the area between the 2nd and 3rd Ring Roads is preserved as an agricultural and environmental preservation area except the area that has been developed into an urban area.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-3 Source: Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning (2019) Figure 2.1.1-1 (Draft) Bangkok Metropolitan area and its Vicinities B.E 2580 2) (Draft) Central Regional Plan Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning began to renovate the central regional plan in 2018 to renovate the central regional plan B.E. 2600 to be in line with the changing policy and development context of the country. The central reginal plan covers 12 provinces in the central region including Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya province which is the study area of the project. The operation is currently under study in the process of organizing the 3rd workshop and small group meeting at the provincial level to brainstorm opinions on the preparation of draft policy for the central regional plan. Figure 2.1.1-2 shown (draft) policy map on the central regional plan that used in the 3rd workshop, which defined the roles and guidelines for development of Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya as follows:

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecastingthe demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-4 Source: Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning (2021) Figure 2.1.1-2 (Draft) Policy Map for Central Regional Development - Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya Province is defined to be the center of government administration in the upper central region - The Ayutthaya high-speed train station and double-track railway has been designated to develop the surrounding area of the public transport station according to the concept of Transit Oriented Development (TOD) to increase the development density and mixed land use. - Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya Municipality is organized as the center of the country/region for the development of smart cities and commercial center cities.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-5 - Prasat Thong Subdistrict Municipality, Bang Pa-in district is classified as an industrial center at the district level which must prepare the infrastructure and transportation system to support the production. - Bang Pa-In Subdistrict Municipality is classified as a city center for agriculture at the district level which must prepare the area to support the processed agricultural products and agricultural transport. - In the district areas of Uthai, Bang Pa-In, and Wang Noi, it is designated as the First S-Curve industrial promotion area, focusing on the modern automotive industry, intelligent electronics industry, and agricultural and biotechnology industry. - Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya historical park area is classified as an area for conservation, protection and maintenance of cultural heritage sites which must control the development of buildings and structures in the surrounding area. 3) (Draft) Eastern Regional Plan Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning began to renovate the eastern regional plan in 2018 to renovate the eastern regional plan B.E. 2600 to be in line with the changing policy and development context of the country. The eastern reginal plan covers 8 provinces in the eastern region including Chachoengsao province which is the study area of the project. The operation is currently under study in the process of organizing the 3rd workshop and small group meeting at the provincial level to brainstorm opinions on the preparation of draft policy for the eastern regional plan. Figure 2.1.1-3 shown (draft) policy map on the eastern regional plan that used in the 3rd workshop and small group meeting, which defined the roles and guidelines for development of Chachoengsao as follows: - Chachoengsao province is designed to be a residential city that supporting the expansion of activities from the metropolitan region and Suvarnabhumi airport. - Muang Chachoengsao Municipality is defined to be a provincial commercial center, it will have a high-speed railway project route and new double-track railway project. Therefore, it is designated as a multimodal transportation hub, industrial center, distribution center, tourism center, and livable smart city. - In the district areas of Bang Nam Priao and Bang Khla, it is a potential development area to be a green community (Safe agricultural community, organic agriculture model and/or environmentally friendly industrial community).

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecastingthe demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-6 Source: Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning (2021) Figure 2.1.1-3 (Draft) Policy Map for Eastern Regional Development

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-7 2.1.2 Urban Land Use Comprehensive Plan 1) Bangkok Metropolitan Comprehensive Plan The consultant team had reviewed several urban comprehensive plan which may affect towards the direction of urban expansion. According to the information of Bangkok Metropolitan Comprehensive Plan B.E.2560 (3rd Revision) has been implemented since 16 th May B.E.2556 and still active. Another comprehensive plan: ( Draft) Bangkok Metropolitan Comprehensive Plan ( 4th Revision) which propose to implement in year B.E. 2567 are reviewed in this section for estimating the development direction of Bangkok in the future. The summarization of the two reviewed comprehensive plan are described as follow ▪ Bangkok Metropolitan Comprehensive Plan B.E. 2556 Bangkok Metropolitan Comprehensive Plan (B.E. 2556) which depicted in Figure 2.1.2-1 are cover the entire area of Bangkok Metropolitan Area (1,568 Sq. Km or 980,460 Rai). According to Bangkok Metropolitan Comprehensive Plan (B.E. 2556) , this land use comprehensive plan had classified three types of permissible activities within land use control as follows Permissible activity – refers to the set of preferable or relates activities to allow in accordance to the potential for each particular land use district. (E.G., Low-Density Residential Area are allowed to build detached house, row house as a permissible use, while shops, schools, medical service are allowed to build as related activities) Compromising activity – refers to the activities that might be affects to surroundings which relating to environmental issue or infrastructure services. Thus, some limitation or control are necessaries to state in the land use policy. For example, high-rise buildings or large department store are required to construct nearby the major road or artery, or construct within the 500 meter of service radius of rail transit system. Prohibit activities – refers to the set of activity that directly affect toward surrounding or living safety such as polluted industry, fuel depot or livestock are prohibit to do in urban area.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecastingthe demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-8 Source: Ministry of Interior (2013) Figure 2.1.2-1 The Ministerial Regulation on The Bangkok Comprehensive Plan 2013 (B.E.2556) ▪ (Draft) Bangkok Metropolitan Comprehensive Plan (4 th Revision) The under construction of (Draft) Bangkok Metropolitan Comprehensive Plan (4th Revision) is expected to be enact in year 2024 with different requirements from the previous the Bangkok Comprehensive Plan especially in the dimension of urban development. It is intended to be used as a guideline for the development and maintenance of Bangkok with the use of the property, transportation, public utilities, public service, and a good standard and effective environment to make Bangkok as a livable city and to become economic and scientific center of the country and Southeast Asia including as the administrative center of the country with having a national cultural identity as well as being a model city in terms of preserving the natural environment and reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the impacts of climate change. For the (Draft) Bangkok Metropolitan Comprehensive Plan (4th Revision) as shown in Figure 2.1.2-2. Land use of the ( Draft) Bangkok Metropolitan Comprehensive Plan ( 4 th Revision) is different from the 2013 Bangkok Comprehensive Plan, it has a change from the type of conservation for cultural promotion area to the type of commercial area to promote cultural tourism, high- density residential area, and governments, facilities, utilities, and government instructional area.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-9 The land use zoning plan determines the expansion of land use in Central Business District ( CBD) area from Silom and Sathorn districts to the sub- CBD from the Rama III Road up along Ratchadaphisek Road to Rama 9 Road in intermodal area which are Makkasan and Phaholyothin Transportation Center as well as the suburban community center area (Sub Center) which is Minburi sub center. Source: BMA City Planning Department (2021) Figure 2.1.2-2 (Draft) Bangkok Metropolitan Comprehensive Plan (4th Revision) 2) Provincial/Urban/Community comprehensive plan in the study area The study of urban development direction in various study area provinces considered from the provincial comprehensive plan and specific plan for Nonthaburi, Samut Prakan, Pathum Thani, Nakhon Pathom, Samut Sakhon, and Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya in both which have been announced and are in the process of preparation. For Chachoengsao, it considered to the Announcement of the Policy Committee of the Eastern Special Development Zone on the map of land use and diagram of the development of infrastructure and utility systems Eastern Special Development Zone B.E.2562.For the land use requirements of provincial comprehensive plan in the study area as show in Figure 2.1.2-3

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecastingthe demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-10 Source: Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning Figure 2.1.2-3 Land use requirements of provincial comprehensive plan in the study area In the study area, there were only Bangkok, Nonthaburi and Samut Prakan that had an urban/ community comprehensive plan covering the entire province. For other provinces, there had an urban/community comprehensive plan covering only the municipality or urban area. The land use control and urban development in the outside areas of urban/community comprehensive plan must be comply with the requirements in the provincial comprehensive plan except Chachoengsao province which must be comply with the announcement of the Policy Committee of the Eastern Special Development Zone on the map of land use and diagram of the development of infrastructure and utility systems Eastern Special Development Zone B.E. 2562, which the land use requirements according to the provincial comprehensive plan, there were 3 main land use areas that can develop the area and it will be a need for transportation: 1) Pink area was defined as community land use for residential, commercial, government institutes, public utilities, and amenities. This area was therefore an area that can be developed into a city which will have a densely populated population living and working in the area. Therefore, the transportation system should be developed to meet the needs of people traveling, such as the rail mass transit system and buses. 2) Purple area was defined as industrial and warehouse land use for industrial purposes or related to industries, warehouses, government institutes, public utilities, and amenities. Therefore, the transportation system should be developed to support industrial activities such as roads and expressways. 3) Green area was defined as rural and agricultural land use for agriculture or related to agriculture, residences, government institutes, public utilities, and amenities. Therefore, the transportation system should be developed to support agricultural activities and agricultural product processing.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-11 2.1.3 Existing land use For the current land use situation in the study area, it used data from the Land Development Department that had conducted land use data collection during the years, so it can be summarized as follows: 1) Bangkok Metropolis Land Development Department had collected data on characteristics of land use in Bangkok into 5 main characteristics, namely community and buildings areas, agricultural areas, forest areas, water source areas, and miscellaneous areas. The data collection of changes in the type of land use from 2001-2019 as shown in Table 2.1.3-1, it was found that the most land use in the Bangkok area in 2019 as shown in Figure 2.1.3-1 were community and buildings areas approximately 659,114 rai (67.36% of the total area) , followed by agricultural areas 231,441 rai (23.67%) and miscellaneous areas 57,305 rai (5.89%), respectively. Table 2.1.3-1 Land use in Bangkok during 2001 - 2019 Type of land use Year 2001 2007 2009 2011 2016 2019 Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Community and buildings areas 583,405 59.63 560,861 57.33 620,652 63.46 624,017 63.82 652,663 66.69 659,114 67.36 Agricultural areas 87,962 8.99 322,004 32.92 262,819 26.84 256,171 26.17 240,381 24.59 231,441 23.67 Forest areas - - 542 0.06 1,674 0.17 1,659 0.17 1,593 0.16 1,582 0.16 Water source areas 6,398 0.66 67,906 6.94 67,936 6.96 29,448 3.00 29,061 2.98 28,821 2.96 Miscellaneous areas 62,450 6.39 26,950 2.75 25,182 2.57 66,968 6.84 54,565 5.58 57,305 5.85 Total 978,263 100.00 978,263 100.00 978,263 100.00 978,263 100.00 978,263 100.00 978,263 100.00 Source: Policy and Land Use Planning Division, Land Development Department (2021) Source: Policy and Land Use Planning Division, Land Development Department (2021) Figure 2.1.3-1 Land use in Bangkok area in 2019

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecastingthe demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-12 2) Nonthaburi Land Development Department had collected data on characteristics of land use in Nonthaburi province into 5 main characteristics, namely community and buildings areas, agricultural areas, forest areas, water source areas, and miscellaneous areas. The data collection of changes in the type of land use from 2001 - 2019 as shown in Table 2.1.3-2, it was found that the most land use in the Nonthaburi area in 2019 as shown in Figure 2.1.3-2 were community and buildings areas approximately 182,219 rai (46.85% of the total area) , followed by agricultural areas 171,097 rai (43.99%) and miscellaneous areas 20,547 rai (5.28%), respectively. Table 2.1.3-2 Land use in Nonthaburi province during 2001 - 2019 Type of land use Year 2001 2007 2009 2012 2016 2019 Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Community and buildings areas 104,024 26.75 110,372 28.38 127,620 32.81 150,593 38.75 173,646 9.15 182,219 46.85 Agricultural areas 272,717 70.11 255,393 65.67 238,191 61.25 215,905 55.51 182,318 46.87 171,097 43.99 Forest areas - - - - - - - - - - - - Water source areas 4,521 1.16 10,919 2.80 11,075 2.85 11,255 2.90 14,670 3.78 15,076 3.88 Miscellaneous areas 7,677 1.98 12,255 3.15 12,053 3.09 10,781 2.76 18,305 4.71 20,547 5.28 Total 388,939 100.00 388,939 100.00 388,939 100.00 388,939 100.00 388,939 100.00 388,939 100.00 Source: Policy and Land Use Planning Division, Land Development Department (2021) Source: Policy and Land Use Planning Division, Land Development Department (2021) Figure 2.1.3-2 Land use in Nonthaburi province in 2019

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-13 3) Pathum Thani Land Development Department had collected data on characteristics of land use in Pathum Thani province into 5 main characteristics, namely community and buildings areas, agricultural areas, forest areas, water source areas, and miscellaneous areas. The data collection of changes in the type of land use from 2007- 2019 as shown in Table 2.1.3-3, it was found that the most land use in the Pathum Thani area in 2019 as shown in Figure 2.1.3-3 were agricultural areas approximately 518,027 rai (54.28% of the total area) , followed by community and buildings areas 290,243 rai (30.45%) and miscellaneous areas 105,620 rai (11.08%), respectively. Table 2.1.3-3 Land use in Pathum Thani province during 2007 – 2019 Type of land use Year 2007 2009 2012 2015 2017 2019 Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Community and buildings areas 205,045 21.51 225,908 23.69 251,892 26.43 274,419 28.77 280,185 29.37 290,243 30.45 Agricultural areas 592,135 62.00 600,721 63.00 562,054 58.88 528,599 55.45 526,927 55.24 518,027 54.28 Forest areas - - - - - - - - - - - - Water source areas 35,446 3.75 38,898 3.65 34,217 3.59 34,554 3.60 38,443 4.04 39,770 4.19 Miscellaneous areas 121,034 12.74 92,133 9.66 105,497 11.10 116,088 12.18 108,105 11.35 105,620 11.08 Total 953,660 100.00 953,660 100.00 953,660 100.00 953,660 100.00 953,660 100.00 953,660 100.00 Source: Policy and Land Use Planning Division, Land Development Department (2021) Source: Policy and Land Use Planning Division, Land Development Department (2021) Figure 2.1.3-3 Land use in Pathum Thani province in 2019

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecastingthe demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-14 4) Samut Prakan Land Development Department had collected data on characteristics of land use in Samut Prakan province into 5 main characteristics, namely community and buildings areas, agricultural areas, forest areas, water source areas, and miscellaneous areas. The data collection of changes in the type of land use from 2007 - 2019 as shown in Table 2.1.3-4, it was found that the most land use in the Samut Prakan area in 2019 as shown in Figure 2.1.3-4 were agricultural areas approximately 271,609 rai (43.27% of the total area), followed by community and buildings areas 262,955 rai (41.91%) and miscellaneous areas 42,517 rai (6.77%), respectively. Table 2.1.3-4 Land use in Samut Prakan province during 2007 – 2019 Type of land use Year 2007 2009 2011 2015 2017 2019 Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Community and buildings areas 191,920 30.58 207,544 33.08 229,227 36.53 255,232 40.68 259,884 41.41 262,955 41.91 Agricultural areas 341,775 54.46 332,775 53.02 303,458 48.37 273,884 43.64 274,167 43.68 271,609 43.27 Forest areas 12,384 1.97 12,616 2.01 13,494 2.15 13,889 2.21 141,36 2.26 13,902 2.22 Water source areas 35,629 5.68 36,268 5.77 40,348 6.42 41,756 6.66 36,574 5.82 36,574 5.83 Miscellaneous areas 45,850 7.31 38,355 6.12 41,030 6.53 42,797 6.81 42,796 6.83 42,517 6.77 Total 627,558 100.00 627,558 100.00 627,558 100.00 627,558 100.00 627,557 100.00 627,557 100.00 Source: Policy and Land Use Planning Division, Land Development Department (2021) Source: Policy and Land Use Planning Division, Land Development Department (2021) Figure 2.1.3-4 Land use in Samut Prakan province in 2019

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-15 5) Nakhon Pathom Land Development Department had collected data on characteristics of land use in Nakhon Pathom province into 5 main characteristics, namely community and buildings areas, agricultural areas, forest areas, water source areas, and miscellaneous areas. The data collection of changes in the type of land use from 2007 - 2019 as shown in Table 2.1.3-5, it was found that the most land use in the Nakhon Pathom area in 2019 as shown in Figure 2.1.3-5 were agricultural areas approximately 908,659 rai (67.02% of the total area), followed by community and buildings areas 297,280 rai (21.95%) and miscellaneous areas 98,372 rai (7.72%), respectively. Table 2.1.3-5 Land use in Nakhon Pathom province during 2007 – 2019 Type of land use Year 2007 2009 2011 2015 2017 2019 Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Community and buildings areas 207,262 15.29 213,169 15.74 267,440 19.76 286,621 21.16 292,198 21.58 297,280 21.95 Agricultural areas 1,016,499 75.01 1,015,461 74.93 952,224 70.25 915,667 67.54 912,528 67.30 908,659 67.02 Forest areas - - - - - - - - - - - - Water source areas 63,926 4.71 54,686 4.04 55,218 4.07 49,369 3.65 50,735 3.75 50,899 3.76 Miscellaneous areas 67,517 4.99 71,888 5.29 80,322 5.92 103,553 7.65 99,749 7.37 98,372 7.27 Total 1,355,204 100.00 1,355,204 100.00 1,355,204 100.00 1,355,210 100.00 1,355,210 100.00 1,355,210 100.45 Source: Policy and Land Use Planning Division, Land Development Department (2021) Source: Policy and Land Use Planning Division, Land Development Department (2021) Figure 2.1.3-5 Land use in Nakhon Pathom province in 2019

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecastingthe demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-16 6) Samut Sakhon Land Development Department had collected data on characteristics of land use in Samut Sakhon province into 5 main characteristics, namely community and buildings areas, agricultural areas, forest areas, water source areas, and miscellaneous areas. The data collection of changes in the type of land use from 2007 - 2019 as shown in Table 2.1.3-6, it was found that the most land use in the Samut Sakhon area in 2019 as shown in Figure 2.1.3-6 were agricultural areas approximately 304,357 rai (55.81% of the total area), followed by community and buildings areas 148,186 rai (27.19%) and miscellaneous areas 51,122 rai (9.38%), respectively. Table 2.1.3-6 Land use in Samut Sakhon province during 2007 – 2019 Type of land use Year 2007 2009 2012 2015 2017 2019 Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Community and buildings areas 91,406 16.76 93,506 17.16 113,255 20.78 119,857 21.99 138,906 25.47 148,186 27.19 Agricultural areas 347,557 63.74 338,031 61.99 323,457 59.31 312,875 57.38 306,729 56.26 304,357 55.81 Forest areas 28,689 5.26 21,876 4.02 23,061 4.23 23,250 4.26 20,666 3.79 19,063 3.50 Water source areas 16,540 3.04 20,433 3.74 22,427 4.12 22,005 4.04 22,159 4.07 22,489 4.12 Miscellaneous areas 61,025 11.20 71,371 13.09 63,017 11.56 67,230 12.33 56,757 10.41 51,122 9.38 Total 545,217 100.00 545,217 100.00 545,217 100.00 545,217 100.00 545,217 100.00 545,217 100.00 Source: Policy and Land Use Planning Division, Land Development Department (2021) Source: Policy and Land Use Planning Division, Land Development Department (2021) Figure 2.1.3-6 Land use in Samut Sakhon province in 2019

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-17 7) Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya Land Development Department had collected data on characteristics of land use in Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya province into 5 main characteristics, namely community and buildings areas, agricultural areas, forest areas, water source areas, and miscellaneous areas. The data collection of changes in the type of land use from 2009 - 2019 as shown in Table 2.1.3-7, it was found that the most land use in the Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya area in 2019 as shown in Figure 2.1.3-7 were agricultural areas approximately 1,124,039 rai (70.35% of the total area), followed by community and buildings areas 306,665 rai (19.18%) and miscellaneous areas 89,844 rai (5.63%), respectively. Table 2.1.3-7 Land use in Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya province during 2009 – 2019 Type of land use Year 2009 2011 2015 2017 2019 Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Community and buildings areas 135,411 8.48 260,754 16.32 285,297 17.85 297,684 18.63 306,665 19.18 Agricultural areas 1,364,146 85.37 1,228,292 76.85 1,201,585 75.18 1,137,727 71.19 1,124,039 70.35 Forest areas 0.00 0.00 731 0.05 404 0.03 374 0.02 374 0.02 Water source areas 55,802 3.50 59,871 3.76 61,122 3.83 72,840 4.56 76,978 4.82 Miscellaneous areas 42,541 2.65 48,252 3.02 49,492 3.11 89,275 5.60 89,844 5.63 Total 1,597,900 100.00 1,597,900 100.00 1,597,900 100.00 1,597,900 100.00 1,597,900 100.00 Source: Policy and Land Use Planning Division, Land Development Department (2021) Source: Policy and Land Use Planning Division, Land Development Department (2021) Figure 2.1.3-7 Land use in Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya province in 2019

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecastingthe demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-18 8) Chachoengsao Land Development Department had collected data on characteristics of land use in Chachoengsao province into 5 main characteristics, namely community and buildings areas, agricultural areas, forest areas, water source areas, and miscellaneous areas. The data collection of changes in the type of land use from 2008 - 2018 as shown in Table 2.1.3-8, it was found that the most land use in the Chachoengsao area in 2018 as shown in Figure 2.1.3-8 were agricultural areas approximately 2,368,815 rai (70.85% of the total area), followed by forest areas 541,284 rai (16.18%) and community and buildings areas 232,342 rai (6.95%) , respectively. Table 2.1.3-8 Land use in Chachoengsao province during 2008 – 2018 Type of land use Year 2008 2010 2013 2016 2018 Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Rai % Community and buildings areas 193,948 5.79 194,972 5.83 206,690 6.20 225,360 6.75 232,342 6.95 Agricultural areas 2,452,638 73.34 2,368,858 70.84 2,371,440 70.88 2,367,596 70.78 2,368,815 70.85 Forest areas 547,127 16.35 551,640 16.49 549,317 16.42 543,972 16.27 541,284 16.18 Water source areas 76,701 2.31 88,892 2.67 97,124 2.91 98,243 2.94 98,831 2.95 Miscellaneous areas 73,961 2.21 140,013 4.17 119,804 3.59 109,204 3.26 103,103 3.07 Total 3,344,375 100.00 3,344,375 100.00 3,344,375 100.00 3,344,375 100.00 3,344,375 100.00 Source: Policy and Land Use Planning Division, Land Development Department (2021) Source: Policy and Land Use Planning Division, Land Development Department (2021) Figure 2.1.3-8 Land use in Chachoengsao province in 2018

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-19 2.1.4 The large-scale proposed development projects The large-scale proposed development projects of the private sector in the study area that cause changes in land use and affecting the increase in travel demand, consisting of 17 projects as follows: Table 2.1.4-1 The large-scale proposed development projects No Project Size Location Type Expected to be Completed (Year) 1 Queen Sirikit National Convention Center 280,000 sq.m Ratchadaphisek Rd., Khlong Toei District, Bangkok convention and exhibition center 2022 2 Dusit Central Park 400,000 sq.m Rama IV Rd., Bang Rak District, Bangkok Residences/Offices /Commercial buildings In 2023 for the hotel and in 2025 for the whole project 3 The One Bangkok 1,277,277 sq.m Lumpini Subdistrict, Pathumwan District, Bangkok (Suan Lum Night Bazaar) Residential/ Condominiums/Offices/ Commercial/shopping Centers/hotels First phase in 2024 and in 2027 for the whole project 4 EEC Gateway Makkasan 2,000,000 sq.m Ratchadaphisek Rd., Intersection of the Eastern Railway Residential/Offices/ Commercial/shopping Centers/hotels 2037 5 Emsphere 193,000 sq.m Khlong Tan Subdistrict, Khlong Toei District, Bangkok (adjacent to Benchasiri Park) Commercial/ shopping center and theater 2024 6 The Forestias 178,752.88 sq.m Bang Phli, Samut Prakan (Bangna-Trad Rd. km.7) Residences/Offices/ Commercial/Shopping Centers/hotels/ hospitals 2024 7 The Bangkok Mall Project at Bang Na 873,000 sq.m Bang Na Subdistrict, Bang Na District, Bangkok Residential/ Condominiums/Offices /Shopping Centers 2026 8 Mega Rangsit Klong 5 1,440,000 sq.m Khlong 5, Rangsit-Nakhon Nayok Rd. intersect with the eastern ring Rd. Commercial/ Shopping Center Expected 2037 (After the renovation of urban comprehensive plan of Lam Luk Ka – Bueng Yitho) 9 Central Rangsit 482,500 sq.m Rangsit, Pathum Thani (Thai weaving factory, former melon, Phaholyothin Rd.) Commercial/ Shopping Center 2037 10 The Grand Rama 9 392,000 sq.m Huai Khwang District, Bangkok Shopping Centers/ Residences/Offices/ Super Tower and Arcade currently open for service, except for the Super Tower and Arcade buildings, expected 2037 11 Ministry of interior (New Office) 220,400 sq.m Charoennakorn Road, Bang Lamphu Lang Subdistrict, Khlong San District, Bangkok Government Office 2026 12 Mochit Complex 168,799 sq.m Phaholyothin Road, Chomphon Subdistrict, Chatuchak District, Bangkok Office/Commercial/Education/ Restaurant/Car Park 2024

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecastingthe demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-20 No Project Size Location Type Expected to be Completed (Year) 13 Megacity Bang Na 577,500 sq.m The intersection between Kanchanapisek Road and Debaratana Road. The 8th kilometer range in the area of Bang Kaew Sub-district, Bang Phli District, Samut Prakan Province. Large-scale shopping centers/schools/offices/hotels /indoor theme parks/parks/residential buildings 2023 14 Central Village Suvarnabhumi 40,000 sq.m Near Suvarnabhumi Airport (Suvarnabhumi 3 Road, Bang Chalong Subdistrict, Bang Phli District, Samut Prakan Province) Shopping Center 2019 15 Terminal Rama III 139,970 sq.m Rama 3 Road, Bang Khlo Subdistrict, Bang Kho Laem District, Bangkok Commercial/Theatre/Restaura nt/Office 2022 16 Central Siam Square 134,200 sq.m Rama 1 Road, Pathum Wan Subdistrict, Pathum Wan District, Bangkok Shopping Center/Office/Hotel first phase Shopping mall 2026 all done 2028 17 ICS 70,000 sq.m Charoennakorn Road, Khlong Ton Sai, Khlong San District, Bangkok Shopping Center/Office/Hotel 2023 Source: Consultant, 2023 2.1.5 Urban Planning Analysis From the information of urban planning in topics 2.1.1 – 2.1.4 and the population information, it can be able to analyze urban planning data, consisting of 1) urban hierarchy analysis 2) urban development policy and regulation and 3) land use, as the following: 1) Urban hierarchy analysis An analysis of urban hierarchy to classify the rank of city groups in the study area, identify the major attraction or activity node in the area, and define development centers at the city and district levels, the results of the analysis are detailed as follows: Ministry of Interior1 had collected data on the registered population, this study used population data for the past 10 years (2011-2020) due to population numbers in the municipality is one of the conditions for determining the nature of basic services according to the Municipalities Act, B.E. 2496 (1953), the mission of the municipality was divided into three levels2 as follows: (1) Subdistrict municipalityis a locality which has been announced by the Ministry of Interior as a subdistrict municipality that must specify the name and boundary of the municipality. 1 Statistics (dopa.go.th) 2 Municipalities Act, B.E. 2499 Section 8-10

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-21 (2) Town municipality is the locality where the town hall is located or a local community with a population of 10,000 people or more, and earning enough income to perform the duties that required by the Act, and there is a Ministerial Regulation Announcement of Ministry of Interior to be as a municipality as well as specifying the name and boundary of the municipality. (3) City municipality is a local community with a population of 50,000 people or more, and earning enough income to perform the duties that required by the Act, and there is a Ministerial Regulation Announcement of Ministry of Interior to be as a municipality as well as specifying the name and boundary of the municipality. The study area except Bangkok were 3,128,631 people in the municipality areas in 2020. The province with the largest population in the municipality was Nonthaburi with a registered population in the municipality of 778,653 people, accounting for 60.99% of total registered population in the province, followed by Pathum Thani that was a registered population in the municipality of 660,797 people, accounting for 56.17% of the total registered population in the province, and Samut Prakan that was a registered population in the municipality of 657,072 people, accounting for 48.62% of the total registered population in the province. The province with the least population in the municipality was Chachoengsao with a registered population in the municipality of 157,381 people, accounting for 21.84% of total registered population in the province as shown in Table 2.1.5-1. Table 2.1.5-1 Number of registered populations in the municipality Province Population in 2020 In the municipality Outside the municipality % of population in the municipality Subdistrict municipality Town municipality City municipality Total Nonthaburi 1,276,745 137,580 200,589 440,484 778,653 498,092 60.99 Pathum Thani 1,176,412 154,536 421,993 84,268 660,797 515,615 56.17 Samut Prakan 1,351,479 419,433 188,035 49,604 657,072 694,407 48.62 Nakhon Pathom 920,729 139,185 78,808 72,753 290,746 629,983 31.58 Samut Sakhon 586,199 174,333 27,556 65,409 267,298 318,901 45.60 Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya 819,088 212,731 54,745 49,208 316,684 502,404 38.66 Chachoengsao 720,718 119,197 38,184 - 157,381 563,337 21.84 Total 6,851,370 1,356,995 1,009,910 761,726 3,128,631 3,722,739 45.66 Source: From the analysis by the consultant The determination of urban hierarchy from the Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning, it defines the "Quality City"3 as a good city that meets the standards according to the objectives of urban planning and suitable for living and daily life of the people in that city. There were dividing cities (excluding 3 Standard Development Bureau, Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning ( 2008) . The prioritization guildelines for urban development project, searching for quality cities with urban planning standards, search at 3_0005.pdf (dpt.go.th)

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecastingthe demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-22 Bangkok) into 5 levels: 1) very large city with a population of 65,001 people or more, 2) large city with a population of 40,001 - 65,001 people, 3) medium-sized city with a population of 20,001 - 40,000 people 4) small city with a population of 8,001 - 20,000 people and 5) very small towns with a population of not more than 8,000 people. The municipality hierarchy in the study area from city groups analysis with such conditions, it found that there were 139 municipalities in the study area, most were a subdistrict municipality (population less than 10,000 people) of 96 places, followed by town municipality (population between 10,000 – 50,000 people) of 35 places and city municipality (population over 50,000 people) of 8 places as shown in Table 2.1.5-2 and Figure 2.1.5-1. For the urban hierarchy in the study area, it found that most of city groups were medium-sized cities (population between 20,000 – 40,000 people) and there were 12 places of very large cities (population over 65,001 people) as shown in Table 2.1.5-2 and Figure 2.1.5-2. The connecting of city groups especially in very large and large cities with the transportation system to meet the travel needs of people is therefore necessary in the future. In consideration of the future electric train network in Figure 2.1.5-2 found that there were very large cities (population over 65,001 people) that had not been directly linked to the rail network, namely Tha Khong Municipality, Lam Sam Kaew Municipality, and Lat Sawai Municipality in Pathum Thani Province and Nonthaburi Municipality in Nonthaburi Province. Therefore, a secondary rail mass transit system (feeder system) should be arranged to link these cities with the nearby rail mass transit station. Table 2.1.5-2 The analysis results of municipality ranking and the classification of city groups Province municipality ranking Type of city group Subdistrict municipality Town municipality City municipality Very small Small Medium Large Very large Nonthaburi 7 5 2 2 2 4 4 2 Pathum Thani 9 9 1 3 5 4 3 4 Samut Prakan 12 4 1 2 4 5 2 4 Nakhon Pathom 16 3 1 7 9 3 0 1 Samut Sakhon 7 1 1 3 0 3 2 1 Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya 29 4 1 20 11 2 1 0 Chachoengsao 25 1 0 21 4 1 0 0 Total 105 27 7 22 35 58 12 12 Source: From the analysis by the consultant

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-23 Source: From the analysis by the consultant Figure 2.1.5-1 Municipality hierarchy in the study area Source: From the analysis by the consultant Figure 2.1.5-2 Urban hierarchy in the study area

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecastingthe demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-24 2) Urban development policy and regulation Policies and requirements for urban development that guide the direction of urban development in the study area were regional plan, provincial comprehensive plan, and urban/community comprehensive plan. The regional plan in the study area consisted of (Draft) Bangkok Metropolitan area and its Vicinities B.E 2580, (Draft) Central Regional Plan especially in Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, and (Draft) Eastern Regional Plan especially in Chachoengsao as shown in Figure 2.1.5-3. The main center city in the regional plan were Bangkok, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, and Chachoengsao which found that the main axis of urban development in the study area was L-shaped or right-angled with a right angle or development center in the CBD in the heart of Bangkok, an axis of urban development straight to the north to Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya municipality which was designated as the center of the country/region of the upper central region, an axis of urban development straight the east to Chachoengsao municipality which was designated as a provincial commercial center of Chachoengsao province and to be a residential city that supporting the expansion of activities from the metropolitan region and Suvarnabhumi airport. The connection of Bangkok area with the center city in the north and east with an efficient transport system will help spread prosperity from Bangkok (primate city) to other cities in the region. However, the urban development must be controlled in a compact way to prevent urban sprawl that causing the existing land use and traffic problems. Source: Adjusted from Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning Figure 2.1.5-3 The axis of urban development according to the regional plan in the study area

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-25 Source: Adjusted from Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning Figure 2.1.5-4 The axis of urban development according to the regional plan in the study area (Draft) Bangkok Metropolitan area and its Vicinities B.E 2580 defined 3 levels of satellite cities: subcenter city, commercial and production center city in the vicinities region, and small satellite town to provide commercial services in agricultural areas and to control the development of the city not to be a scattered urban development. The comparation of the existing rail mass transit system network and will be constructed in the future with the location of all satellite cities can be shown as in Source: Adjusted from Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning Figure 2.1.5-4, it found that there were satellite cities that were not directly linked to the rail mass transit system network, namely Bang Bo city and Nong Suea city which was designated as a center city of commercial and production in the vicinities area, and Nong Chok city and Thanyaburi city which were a small satellite towns to provide commercial services in agricultural areas. Therefore, the mass transit system should be extended to the satellite cities or arranged for a secondary mass transit system (feeder system) to link these cities with nearby rail transit stations. Figure 2.1.5-5 shown the land use requirements according to urban/community comprehensive plan in the study area which aims to control the land use and urban development in municipalities or urban areas. The areas where intensive development is permitted were the red area (commercial use) and brown area (high density residential use) that as the main hubs in the heart of Bangkok. It will be densely populated and working in the area. Therefore, the transportation system should be developed to meet the needs of people traveling, such as the rail mass transit system and buses. For the orange area (medium-density residential use) and yellow area (low-density residential use), it was designed as the primary living areas for urban working population. Therefore, there is a need for a transportation system for commuting to work in the main center area, if there is not enough public transport will cause the traffic jams for inbound traffic in the morning and outbound traffic in the evening.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecastingthe demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-26 However, the urban/community comprehensive plan has defined red areas (commercial use) to distributed along the community centers outside Bangkok to create an activity node which will be a source of work in the area and reduce travel volume to the city center. Therefore, the transportation system should be developed to connect travel between the activity centers in the suburbs and the surrounding residential areas, as well as linking the activity centers in the suburbs to the city center with the rail mass transit system. In comparation of the existing rail mass transit system network and will be constructed in the future with the location of the red area (commercial use) as shown in Figure 2.1.5-6, it found that there were activity centers in the suburbs that were not directly linked to the rail mass transit system, namely Nong Chok district in Bangkok, Bang Bo district in Samut Prakan, Sai Noi district in Nonthaburi, and Om Noi district in Samut Sakhon. Therefore, the mass transit system should be extended to activity center point in the suburbs or arranged a secondary mass transit system (feeder system) to link these areas with the nearby rail mass transit station. Source: Adjusted from Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning Figure 2.1.5-5 Land use requirements of urban/community comprehensive plan in the study area Source: Adjusted from Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning Figure 2.1.5-6 Land use requirements of urban/community comprehensive plan in the study area and rail mass transit system network

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-27 1) Existing land use The analysis of existing land use was summarized the land use types by province from Land Development Department, which the land use data for Bangkok, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Samut Prakan, Samut Sakhon, Nakhon Pathom, and Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya were in year 2019 while Chachoengsao data was in year 2018.Figure 2.1.5-7 shown the existing land use of the study area and the expansion direction of community and buildings area (Red area) found that the community and buildings area (Red area) was concentrated in the Bangkok area and expanded into suburban and vicinities along the main road causing community and buildings areas in Bangkok and surrounding provinces were connected until it seems like the same city. The characteristics of urban expansion along the main road called "Ribbon development", there had buildings along the road that extended from the city which was clearly visible in the outside of the study area. When the area was fully developed on the main road, it had developed into the area along the alley or various sub-roads but there had public transport services such as buses, electric trains only on the main roads, people who live away from the main roads had to rely on personal vehicles to travel. In addition, the most community and buildings area in the suburbs were a location of housing estates, people who living in this area must travel by personel car due to it was a low population density area, so the development of public transportation was not enough then results in traffic congestion from commuting to work in the morning and returning in the evening. If there is a lack of consistent development plan between area and transportation and allow urban sprawl to be developed along the main roads in all directions around Bangkok as it is today, finally the traffic congestion problems will remain in the study area. In comparation of the existing rail mass transit system network and will be constructed in the future with the location of the community and building area (Red area) as shown in Figure 2.1.5-8, it found that there were many areas with rail mass transit routes serving on the main roads and large community and building areas were between the rail mass transit system or flanked by the rail mass transit system or contiguous with the terminal of the rail mass transit system. Therefore, the provision of a secondary mass transit system (feeder system) that can take passengers from their residence to the rail transit station will help facilitate passengers and able to increase the number of passengers and reduce cost of using personal cars.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecastingthe demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-28 Source: Adjusted from Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning Figure 2.1.5-7 Existing land use in the study area (2019 and 2018) Source: Adjusted from Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning Figure 2.1.5-8 Existing land use and rail mass transit system network

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-29 2.1.6 Urban development direction From the study of existing land use in the study area and the expansion direction of community and buildings areas (Red area) , it found that the community and buildings area is expanding from the center of Bangkok out into the suburbs and vicinities along the main road in all directions around Bangkok. Thus, the urban sprawl has resulted in traffic congestion in Bangkok and its vicinities. Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning has prepared a land use development for Bangkok Metropolitan area and its vicinities and provincial and urban/community comprehensive plans for vicinities. In addition, BMA City Planning Department has prepared the Bangkok Metropolitan comprehensive plan to guide and control the development of the city, also to develop the study area to be a livable city as well as promoting the convenience, speed and safety in the traveling and create a balance of housing and work sources to reduce travel volume. Therefore, the development of transportation system and land use or urban development should be consistent. The land use and urban transport are interrelated, the transportation provides access to different areas which an access affects changes in land use in that area and the change in land use affects the pattern of taking place activities in the area then the pattern of activities that affect the travel demand, this can be seen from the traffic volume in the transport network (Giulianao, G. , 2004). Thus, the changes in land use affect transportation and transportation affect land use change as shown in Figure 2.1.6-1. The transportation system development should be consistent with the land use and occurring activities in that area. Each activity that takes place in the city requires a different way of transportation. Activities involving people in the city, such as residential areas, commercial district, and job sites in the city are required to use the transportation services in types of electric railway and buses, while activities involving cargo, such as industrial plants and warehouses are required the high-capacity road networks, such as highways and expressways (Rodrigue, J., 2009). The relationship between urban activity and transport is shown in Figure 2.1.6-2. Source: Adjusted from Giulianao, G. (2004) Figure 2.1.6-1 The relationship of land use and urban transportation Source: Adjusted from Rodrigue, J. (2009) Figure 2.1.6-2 The relationship of urban activities and transportation The urban development in the study area should change the direction of urban development especially the development of residential areas, commercial areas, and work sources from traditional urban development which is a scattered development by roads and vehicles leading the direction of urban

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecastingthe demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-30 development ( Automobile cities) becoming an urban development with a public transportation network as a guide for urban development (Transit cities) as shown in Figure 2.1.6-3 to encourage people to travel by mass transit systems, reduce the use of personal vehicles, helps reduce traffic problems which affects environmental problems and help reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the impacts of climate change. The development of mass transit systems should be consistent with the land use policy and conditions which is specified in the regional plan and comprehensive plan. The rail mass transit system network should be linked to satellite cities and a gathering point for activities in Bangkok and its vicinities and should not only develop routes and public transit stations but should develop the station's surrounding area at the same time by using the concept of transit-oriented development or TOD that was introduced by Calthorpe (1993) to create livable communities through mixed land use of residential, commercial, work source and leisure areas around mass transit stations due to the development of the mass transit system and TOD are mutually reinforcing. The mass transit systems facilitate the large number of people that living or working in high-density areas and the development of station's surrounding area to be a residential and work source with high density also helps make public transport more economically viable (Salat & Ollivier, 2017). Source: Adjusted from Newman & Kenworthy (1996) Figure 2.1.6-3 Comparison of automobile cities and mass transit cities

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-31 2.2 Study and Forecast Trends of Socio-Economic Conditions (TOR 3.2.1) Socio-economic data is necessary for the development of the model. The consultants have gathered information from relevant agencies. To consider the use of data as input data for the development of the model. The details are as follows. 2.2.1 Analyzed and allocated dataset into microscopic data (TAZ) 2.2.1.1 Data Types and Levels According to the available data from various governmental agencies, different datasets are collected based on their objectives. Most of them are macroscopic data from changwad (province), amphoe (district), and tambon (sub-district) levels. However, to meet the purpose of this study, these macroscopic datasets need to be analyzed and allocated into microscopic data level into traffic analysis zones (TAZs) to be used in transportation model. Therefore, the 4 spatial levels of datasets are classified, which are chagnwad (province), amphoe (district), tambon (sub-district), and Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) as shown in Table 2.2.1-1 and are collected from different governmental agencies as shown in Table 2.2.1-2. Table 2.2.1-1 : 4 Spacial Levels and Characteristics of Data Changwad (Province) Amphoe (District) Tambon (Sub-district) Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) Spatial characteristics Provincial level - 8 Provinces - Macroscopic level Amphoe (District) level - 91 Districts - Macroscopic level Tambon (Sub-district) Level - 656 Sub-districts - Macroscopic level Traffic Analysis Zone: TAZ - 1952 Zones Microscopic level Source: Consultant, 2023 TAZs in the study area in 8 provinces are not in the same size. They are designated based on eBUM data. Bangkok has the smallest TAZ size, consists of 1,004 TAZs, the largest number of TAZs in the study area, seconded by Nonthaburi (203 TAZs), Prathum Thani (188 TAZs), and Samuth Prakarn (172 TAZs) consecutively. While Chacheongsao has the smallest numbers of TAZs of only 39, and Phra Nakorn Sri Ayuthaya 69 because only some parts of the province are in the study area. The details of study area and its administrative boundaries and TAZs are shown in Figure 2.2.1-1.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecastingthe demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-32 Table 2.2.1-2 Analytical dataset Dataset Data Source Levels Province Amphoe Tambon TAZ Population data Number of registered populations • Department of Public Administration (DOPA) • National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDC) X X X Number of nonregistered populations • National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDC) X Number of population (100 m.x100 m. Gridded Population) • www.worldpop.org X Population projection data • National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) X Household data Number of households • Department of Public Administration (DOPA) X X X Population census • National Statistic Office X Education data Number of students • Ministry of Education X X X X Number of univsesity students • Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation (MHESI) X Employment data Employment data by Sector • National Statistic Office X Employment in industrial sector • Department of Industrial Works (DIW) X X Land use areas in 3 employment sectors • Land Development Department (LDD) X Employment projection data • Bangkok Metropolitan Region Plan (BMR Plan) by Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning (DPT) X Household income data Average household income (Year 2019) • National Statistic Office X Source: Consultant, 2023 Source: Consultant, 2023 Figure 2.2.1-1 TAZs in the study area

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-33 Datasets from NESDC, considered reliable to be used for planning purposes in Thailand, are used as a control total, mostly at provincial level. Other datasets are, then, analyzed and allocated accordingly into spatial dataset to be used as planning data for further transportation model analyses. Three main aspects of planning data analyses related to transportation model analyses include (1) population, (2) employment, and (3) students as shown in Figure 2.2.1-2. Source: Consultant, 2022 Figure 2.2.1-2 Conceptual of analysis Objectives of planning data analysis are to 1) collect the required data available for planning analyses especially population, employment in 3 sectors, and students from several governmental agencies and other acceptable open sources and 2) allocate the data into spatial feature (GIS) into Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs), designated based on eBUM data. In general, the base years used to analyze growth trends for planning analyses should be collected at least 3 5-years periods starting from present year. However due to the unrealistic planning data during Covid-19 (2020-2022), the present year used in this study is 2019, the year before the pandemic. Therefore, in general the base years for this study will be 2010, 2015, and 2019. In case that the required datasets for such years are not vailable, the base years will be adjusted or the data for those missing years will be estimated. And for 20-years forecast trends in this study, the results will be shown every 5 years, therefore the future years will be 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040. The details of all related planning analyses are explained as follows. 2.2.1.2 Population 1) Analysis and Estimation of Base-year Population The important data used for population analyses are from various sources both governmental and other sources. The governmental sources include overall population (both registered and non-registered) from National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), available at provincial level, and registered population from Department of Public Administration (DOPA), available at district and sub-district levels. The other source is world population from worldpop.org. It is an open and high-resolution geospatial data on population distributions collected for each 100 m.x100m. grid square across the globe, which are used worldwide

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecastingthe demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-34 for monitoring changes and for planning interventions. Therefore, it is available at Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ). The available population data used in this study is shown in Table 2.2.1-3. Table 2.2.1-3 Available Population Data Used in this study Available Data Data Level Data Source Registered and Non-registered Population Province National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) Registered Population District, Sub-district Department of Public Administration (DOPA) Gridded Population (100 m.x100 m.) TAZ www.worldpop.org Source: Consultant, 2023 (1) Methodology to estimate base-year population in TAZs Due to the limitation of data available in TAZs, estimation framework to allocate statistic data at macroscopic levels (from province to district and to sub-district) to microscopic level is necessary as shown in Figure 2.2.1-3. • Use total population for each province from National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), which includes both registered and non-registered population as control total for each province • Use ratio of registered population from Department of Public Administration (DOPA) available at district and sub-district levels to distribute NESDC population of each province to districts and sub-districts • Use ratio of population in each TAZ from Worldpop, to distribute NESDC population of each sub-district to TAZs Source: Consultant, 2023 Figure 2.2.1-3 Estimation Framework for Base-year Population

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-35 (2) Results of Base-Year Population Estimation According to National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), the study area has a gradual increase of total population (both registered and non-registed) from 14,452,013 in 2010 to 15,589,811 in 2015 and to 16,329,992 in 2019, with the average annual growth rate of 1.53 between 2010-2015 and 1.17 between 2015-2019. In 2010 Bangkok has population accounted for 53.22 % of total population but gradually decreses its proportion to 52.00% in 2015 and to only 50.94% in 2019. While the surrounding provinces have slightly increased in their proportions, with higher annual growth rate than Bangkok, especially Samuth Prakarn, Nonthaburi, Prathumthani, and Samuth Sakorn. This pattern shows the trend of population distribution dispersing to suburban area and the vicinities. The details of base-year population are as shown in Table 2.2.1-4 and Figure 2.2.1-4. Table 2.2.1-4 Base-year Population in the study area 2010-2019 Study Area NESDC Population (People) Population Ratio Population Density Annual Growth Rate (%) 2010 2015 2019 2010 2015 2019 2010 2015 2019 2010-2015 2015-2019 Bangkok 7,691,376 8,107,418 8,318,381 53.22% 52.00% 50.94% 4,896 5,160 5,295 1.06% 0.64% Samuth Prakarn 1,736,914 1,918,361 2,075,369 12.02% 12.31% 12.71% 1,830 2,021 2,187 2.01% 1.99% Nonthaburi 1,304,042 1,463,953 1,583,587 9.02% 9.39% 9.70% 2,045 2,296 2,483 2.34% 1.98% Prathumthani 1,244,635 1,423,739 1,545,064 8.61% 9.13% 9.46% 820 938 1,018 2.73% 2.07% Pra Nakorn Sri Ayuthaya (in study area) 541,240 560,121 574,968 3.75% 3.59% 3.52% 368 381 391 0.69% 0.66% Chacheongsao (in study area) 382,302 414,088 434,256 2.65% 2.66% 2.66% 282 306 320 1.61% 1.20% Nakorn Prathom 904,219 975,820 1,028,113 6.26% 6.26% 6.30% 426 459 484 1.54% 1.31% Samuth Sakorn 647,285 726,312 770,253 4.48% 4.66% 4.72% 760 853 904 2.33% 1.48% TOTAL 14,452,013 15,589,811 16,329,992 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,379 1,488 1,559 1.53% 1.17% Source: National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), complied by consultant in 2023 Source: National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), complied by consultant in 2023 Figure 2.2.1-4 Base-year population by province in the study area, 2010-2019

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecastingthe demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-36 These control totals of population by province are then distributed according to the above estimation framework. The results of population distribution and density by TAZ are shown in Figure 2.2.1-5 and Figure 2.2.1-6 respectively. The results show that the average number of populations by TAZ has increased from 7,404 in 2010 to 7,987 in 2015 and to 8,366 persons in 2019. Based on the distribution of population by TAZ (Figure 2.2.1-5), in general, most of TAZs with population greater 30,000 are large TAZs in size covering several subdistricts, located in the surrounding provinces. While the smaller TAZs, mostly located in Bangkok and the center area of vicinities such as Nonthaburi, Prathum Thani, and Nokorn Prathom, has population fewer than 5,000. Due to different TAZ sizes, it is not obvious to see the concentration of population from the distribution of population by TAZ. However, it is clear to see that from the population density by TAZ (Figure 2.2.1-6) as it shows number of populations within the same 1 square kilometer. The results show that the average population density by TAZ in the study area has gruadually increased from 1,379 in 2010 to 1,488 in 2015, and to 1,559 in 2019. Similarly, each province also has higher average of population density from 2010 to 2019. Bangkok, for example, has the average population density of 4,896 persons/sq.km.in 2010 and of 5,295 persons/sq.km. in 2019. This is also true for Nonthaburi, with population density of 2,045 persons/sq.km. in 2010 and of 2,483 persons/sq.km. in 2019. For all 3-year periods, the areas with higest population density are concentrated around the central area of Bangkok along the arterials and main roads. When combined with the areas with population density higher than 4,000 persons/sq.km., the areas are continuingly spreaded out in all direction towards the north to Nonthaburi and Prathum Thani, towards the south to Sumuth Prakarn, and towards the west to Samuth Sakorn, which creates the vastly continuous urban area. While the areas with population density higher than 4,000 persons/sq.km. of Nakorn Prathom, Phra Nakorn Sri Ayuthaya, and Chacheongsao are concentrated in smaller areas and are quite separated from this hugh urban area. In addition, in general, it is more obvious to see that there are more areas with population density between 3,000-5,000 persons/ sq.km. from 2010 to 2015 than from 2015 to 2019. When considered the results in more details, there are 396 TAZs with population density of higher than 10,000 persons/sq.km. in 2010, and increase to 426 in 2015, and to 443 in 2019. All of them are located in Bangkok. The result also shows that TAZ 155 and TAZ 156, located in Pomparb sub-district, Pomparb Satupai district, the center area of Bangkok have the highest population density in all 3 periods with population density of higher than 32,000 persons/sq.km. In 2010 there are 215 TAZs with population density lower than 500 persons/sq.km. and the number has redued to 195 in 2015, and to 184 in 2019. TAZs with population density lower than 100 persons/sq.km. are 1121, 1122, and 1913, located in Samuth Prakarn and Samuth Sakorn. They are whre fish and shrimp farm areas are concentrated. There are 401 TAZs with population density of between 500-2000 persons/sq.km. And the number has reduced to 372 in 2015, and to 344 in 2019. Other details of the results are shown in Figures 2.2.1-5 and Figure 2.2.1-6.