The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-32 3.2. The study of the impact on public transport from the COVID-19 outbreak and how to proceed after the epidemic is over. (TOR 3.1.4) 3.2.1 Effects of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on public transport Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged first time in Wuhan city (China) before becoming a global pandemic due to its contagiousness, fatality rates, and lack of effective vaccines or treatments. Due to the intense and severe widespread of the COVID-19, almost countries around the world have announced special measures in order to control the situation and prevent the spread of the virus. In Thailand, Thai government has asked for cooperation from all companies and agencies to work from home for social distancing. Several businesses and shops have to temporarily close. Schools and universities have switched to online-teaching and online-studying. Moreover, travel across province and countries have been restricted. The COVID-19 outbreak impacts all aspects including disruption of economy and industry, increasing of unemployment rate, work overload of medical unit, and especially transportation under strict travel restrictions. 3.2.1.1 General impacts on public transport Transportation is a part of people’s daily life as we have to go out for school, work, business deal, or travel. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, public transport is severely affected. According to a study from the United States of America, public transit ridership dropped by nearly 80% in April 2020 (same period as the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak) and remained more than 60% below 2019 levels through the rest of the year as shown in Figure 3.2.1-1. Source: APTA Ridership Trends Dashboard powered by Transit, January 2021, https://transitapp.com/APTA Figure 3.2.1-1 Public transit ridership losses and projections in the United States of America
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-33 The drastically drop of public transit ridership correlated with the rising of unemployment in the same period as shown in Figure 3.2.1-2. It is anticipated that ridership will remain at this level through the third quarter of 2021 and slowly grow as the vaccine roll out continues. Nevertheless, ridership in 2022 and 2023 is expected to remain lower than 2019 levels due to continued unemployment and increased remote work. Most forecasts suggest the economy will not reach pre-pandemic employment levels again until 2025. Other than revenue losses from ridership decline, transport agencies also have to increase costs of facility and vehicle cleaning and disinfection, and provide essential service for their workers. ( American Public Transit Association. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on public transit funding needs in the US Published online 2020) Effects of the COVID-19 on public transport in the other countries showed similar trend as in the United States of America such as a case study from Tampere, Finland. (Tiikkaja, H., & Viri, R. (2021). The effects of COVID-19 epidemic on public transport ridership and frequencies. A case study from Tampere, Finland. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 10, 100348) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, “Current Population Survey,” January 2021; Congressional Budget Office, “10-Year Economic Projections,” July 2020. Figure 3.2.1-2 Unemployment rate and projections in the United States of America However, another study in the United States of America demonstrated importance of public transport under the COVID-19 situation. The results showed that even though public transport ridership was decreased, it reduced in only specific groups which are young people under 18 and between 25 to 44 years old and also people with non-physical occupations. Meanwhile people between 45 to 64 years old, people with physical occupations, and groups of people who cannot work from home (production, installation, maintenance and repair, food preparation, and service) are most likely to still using transit to commute to work. (Liu, L., Miller, H. J., & Scheff, J. (2020). The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States. Plos one, 15(11), e0242476)
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-34 The situation in Thailand is not different from other countries. Public transport in Thailand have to follow special measures for the COVID-19 pandemic such as shortening and reducing transport services, limiting number of passengers, and closing some types of transport. The COVID-19 severely reduced number of ridership in every type of public transport (land, water, and air transport) since March 2020 which was the early phase after special measure announcement from the government as shown in Figure 3.2.1-3. In April 2020, domestic flight decreased by 98% which correlated with 67% reduction in transportation between provinces. (https://www.nrct.go.th/news/การเดินทางของคนไทยช่วงสถานการณ์โควิด-19-ลดลง-ช่วยลดการแพร่ระบาดของโรค) Source: National Research Office (NRCT), April 2020 Figure 3.2.1-3 Public transport ridership in Thailand after COVID-19 outbreak Among all public transportation, airline business might be the most affected business from the COVID-19. Nationwide lockdown and closure of several airline businesses in both domestic and international flights negatively impact airline businesses and other associated businesses including aircraft and engine manufacturer, aircraft maintenance organization, airport, airline alliance, and insurance in airline business. Data collection from 6 international airports in Thailand showed reduction more than 50% in airline ridership, number of flights, and amount of air freights in 2020 compared with 2018 and 2019 as shown in Figure 3.2.1-4. (รัชตะ จันทร์พาณิชย์. (2021). สถานการณ์โควิด-19: ผลกระทบและการปรับตัวของธุรกิจการบิน. วารสารวิชาการมหาวิทยาลัยราชภัฏ บุรีรัมย์มนุษยศาสตร์และสังคมศาสตร์, 13(1), 1-20.)
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-35 Source: รัชตะ จันทร์พาณิชย์. (2021). สถานการณ์โควิด-19: ผลกระทบและการปรับตัวของธุรกิจการบิน. วารสารวิชาการมหาวิทยาลัยราชภัฏบุรีรัมย์มนุษยศาสตร์ และสังคมศาสตร์, 13(1), 1-20. Figure 3.2.1-4 Airline ridership, number of flights, and amount of air freights of 6 international airports in Thailand during 2018 - 2020 This crisis forces airline businesses to adjust and apply extraordinary methods for maintaining their businesses. Many airlines are temporarily converting their passenger aircraft to move cargo such as Lufthansa, Korean Air, Emirates Finnair, Austrian Airlines, Swiss Air, and Air Canada. Moreover, different services are created such as no-destination flights, airplane food for sale, and airline souvenirs. 3.2.1.2 Impacts on rail mass transit system Because rail mass transit system is a part of public transport, effects from the COVID-19 pandemic then showed similar trend. Amount of rail mass transit system ridership in Boston drastically dropped after the COVID-19 outbreak as shown in Figure 3.2.1-5. (Basu, R., & Ferreira, J. (2021). Sustainable mobility in auto-dominated Metro Boston: Challenges and opportunities post-COVID-19. Transport Policy, 103, 197-210.) Source: Basu, R., & Ferreira, J. (2021). Sustainable mobility in auto-dominated Metro Boston: Challenges and opportunities post-COVID-19. Transport Policy, 103, 197-210.) Figure 3.2.1-5 Decreasing mass transit ridership among MBTA services
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-36 As the same as in Thailand, decreasing in ridership was reported in all types of rail mass transit system including State Railway of Thailand (SRT), Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand (MRT), Airport Rail Link (ARL), and Bangkok Mass Transit System Skytrain (BTS)1 In early 20202 , passenger who used BTS green line was dropped by 80% after special measure announcement as shown in Figure 3.2.1-6. Although, amount of ridership seemed to increase bit by bit after that, it still could not reach the same level as before the pandemic 3 Source: Siridhara, S. (2021). Sustainable urban transport index for Bangkok and impacts of COVID-19 on mobility Figure 3.2.1-6 The COVID-19 impact on BTS green line ridership Low ridership continues to affect the business performance. Not only does the revenue go down, several measures against the disease also incur costs. More security guards are required. Shield and blockage have been installed. Alcohol gel and temperature check must be provided at the gates. These measures increase operating costs to the operators, while the fare box revenues are still not recovered. However, some entrepreneurs believe that rail transport will have distinct advantages over other transport modes. Because of the composition of passengers’ wagons, the transformation of the layout regarding passengers’ seats will be fast and efficient. Rail system will be able to provide safe, independent compartments in which a small number of passengers will be able to travel and apply social distance measures. Installation of thermal cameras at the entrance gates is another health measure able to make passenger feel safe. In addition, entrepreneurs assume that rail mass transit system is necessary in the long run. The COVID-19 situation might be end in the future, but not with climate change problem. Because rail mass transit system is a huge system with large capacity, therefore it is more environmentally friendly than private car that becomes popular again once the pandemic started. Nonetheless, rail transport should step up the efforts and improve features to bring back passengers, for example, discount ticket price to support people with low income. Furthermore, by tracking passengers within the different compartments, rail will be able to provide data to detect which passengers could 1 Source: (https://www.thairath.co.th/business/economics/2156568) 2 Source: Siridhara, S. (2021). Sustainable urban transport index for Bangkok and impacts of COVID-19 on mobility 3 Source: (https://www.thansettakij.com/property/478339)
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-37 have been exposed to the virus during their journey. European Rail Research Network of Excellence suggested the concept of 5 “R” as the necessary steps the rail sector needs to undertake to play a significant role in tomorrow’s mobility. These steps are (Tardivo, A., Martín, C. S., & Zanuy, A. C. (2020). Covid-19 impact in Transport, an essay from the Railways’ system research perspective. Pract. Pipeline.) ▪ Resilience: require the development of new abilities for rail transport systems as plasticity and learning to adapt as quick as possible. The rail transport needs the immediate term to address cash management challenges. ▪ Return: need to create a detailed plan to return the business back to scale quickly, as the virus evolves and knock-on effects become clearer. Indicators or indexes have to be developed in order to control the evolution of the instability recovery due to such a crisis. ▪ Reimagination: have to re-imagine the “new normal”, to adapt the rail sector to the aftermath of the crisis, provide service and maintain competitiveness. ▪ Reform: change some main purposes of the system in order to adapt with crisis. ▪ Research: pay more attention to research for improve and develop innovative solutions in rail technologies. 3.2.1.3 Travel behavior of Thai people during the COVID-19 crisis Although public transport ridership will be decreased because of social distancing, work from home and closure of some business, one another important reason is alteration in travel behavior after the COVID-1 9 pandemic. Majority of people feel secure to use their private cars in order to avoid risk of infection. A survey in 2021 found that4 2021 found that almost 60% of Thai citizen still want to buy new car by considering about security, health, and convenience. Another 40% of people cancel the buying plan because worry about their income and need not to travel during the COVID-19 situation. Not only short-distance travel for work or meeting, travel behavior for vacation of Thai people is also affected. The COVID-19 critically influenced tourism industry in Thailand since there is no foreign tourist who are major source of revenue. Therefore, most travel trip during this period are all depend on Thai people. A study about travel behavior of Thai people during the COVID-1 9 crisis reported that 4 Source: (https://www.prachachat.net/motoring/news-704470)
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-38 1) Thai travelers tend to travel more inside the country which showed in Figure 3.2.1-7, even though it still cannot reach the same level before the outbreak. Source: ศิริรัตน์ โรจนปณิธิกุล, & ศุภศักดิ์ เงาประเสริฐวงศ์. (2021). พฤติกรรมการท่องเที่ยวของ นักท่องเที่ยวชาวไทยระหว่างสถานการณ์การแพร่ระบาดของโรคติด เชื้อไวรัสโคโรนา 2019 (โควิด-19). รายงานการประชุมวิชาการเสนอผลงานวิจัยระดับชาติและนานาชาติ, 1(12), 559. Figure 3.2.1-7 Numbers of tourist in Thailand in 2020 (million) 2) Most people prefer destination nearby their home than the far one. The place can be reached by car for no longer than 3 hours, so they can drive to the destination by themselves. In September 2020, statistical data showed list of popular provinces from Thai tourists which are Kanchanaburi, Chon Buri, Nakhon Ratchasima, Phetchaburi, and Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya. These provinces are all not far from Bangkok. Comparing with other provinces far away, numbers of Thai tourists seemed to be lowered such as Phuket, Ko Samui, Krabi, and Chiang Mai. Another survey showed similar result as 48% of Thai people plant to travel by private car. Furthermore, there were 33% who feel secure to travel in the end of 2022, while 27% look forward to travel in the end of 2023. (https://thestandard.co/thai-traveler-behavior-survey/) 3) Thai travelers will mainly consider for security during the trip. They tend to choose destination with no record of infected patient, uncrowded place, and clean and disinfection place. 4) Thai travelers will choose to travel more in unseen places, meanwhile avoiding popular places with crowded tourists, for example, shopping place. People during this period pay more attention to place with natural scenery. These factors show people’s anxiety on the COVID-19 pandemic and their effort to avoid infection. The alteration of travel behavior reminds entrepreneurs and business agencies to find new strategy in order to maintain their business during this harsh period. 3.2.2 Society and business pattern in post-COVID-19 The COVID-19 harms not only health and death of patients, it also widely impacts economy and lifestyle of people. Worldwide lockdown leads to hiatus of economy, several businesses directly get effects such as food business, trading sector, and tourism industry. A lot of companies and shops have to close down one by one. These problems continue to increasing of unemployment and economic disparity which will harm the country by loss of competitive and economic developmental ability.
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-39 The COVID-19's impact has left few sectors unaffected; effects of the COVID-19 create new normal in all sectors including economy, society, politics, and lifestyle of people all over the world. Even though the COVID-19 situation will end one day in the future, some attitudes or behaviors of people that have already changed cannot completely reverse back as before. We can assume that the COVID-19 is a catalyst for change that alter both society and people’s life by leaps and bounds. 3.2.2.1 “New Normal” in the post-COVID-19 Era New normal is a previously unfamiliar or a typical situation that has become standard, usual, or expected. New normal that is just created lately caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19, which suddenly occurred and unexpectedly maintain for long period, makes people have to change their life and behavior under new situation before getting used to it and continue these behaviors in the future. These are examples of the new normal caused by the COVID-19: (Wongmonthar, O. (2021). New Normal: วัฒนธรรมการดําเนินชีวิตวิถี ใหม่ร่วมกับโควิด-19. RUSAMILAE JOURNAL, 42(1), 47-62.) ▪ People inThailand has increased healthy behaviors and hygiene measures. We always wear face masks when going out, carry alcohol hand-sanitizing gels and wash hands for protection against spread of the virus. In addition, many people begin to exercise more for their better health. ▪ Work from home, online teaching, online learning, and online meeting will be adopted more because they are convenient methods and practical for social distancing system. ▪ Technology and digital system will drive the post-COVID-19 world. We can use technology with every little thing in life from healthcare to education, to citizen services, working, banking, shopping and manufacturing, every sector and industry transformed with technology at the core. Technology can also serve entertainment to people life including movie streaming, online music, and games. ▪ Shopping behavior of customers will change by choosing and purchase via online channel instead of going out to pick products at shopping mall. Therefore, delivery system needs more improvement in order to keep up with customer’s demand. ▪ Electronic transaction will be a new normal as more people tend to shopping online and purchase online. Moreover, people avoid using cash to reduce risk of infection, and use mobile phone’s application instead. ▪ People pay more attention to their finance. During the COVID-19 pandemic, abundant businesses collapsed and more people had to face with financial crisis. Therefore, people these days focus on finance topics such as money allocation, money saving, playing stock market, and buying insurance. ▪ Self-education via online platform will be in trend. Because of the COVID-19, several online channels have been created and opened for people all over the world to learn. Online platform provides various topics which are easy to access and friendly for new users to learn. Furthermore,
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-40 learners can study at any time they need and learn at their own pace without stress. This platform also helps people save more money when there is no need to travel for joining study courses. Apart from online-learning, some attraction places open for online-travel such as virtual museum, virtual exhibition, and virtual gallery. ▪ People focus more on their work-life balance. Since arrival of the pandemic, people are forced to stay at home whole day. Large numbers of people are working longer and harder during this period leading to motivation in life balancing. A survey revealed opinion of citizen in the United States of America, 50% of respondents said that they had more time to review their life. There were 28% got new hobbies, and 48% focused on their health for their good quality of life. 3.2.2.2 Work pattern after the COVID-19 pandemic The pandemic has changed working patterns of people around the world. The COVID-19 forced many companies to send employees home, and use technology to work remotely from home. Most office workers do not need to spend five days a week in the workplace any more. Data from ‘Google Trends’ revealed that search results about equipment and software for work from home greatly increased during the COVID-1 9 pandemic as shown in Figure 3.2.2-1. Source: Bick, A., Blandin, A., & Mertens, K. (2020). Work from home after the COVID-19 Outbreak. Figure 3.2.2-1 Google searches for work from home equipment and software In the past few years, digital transformation has been among the most discussed topics of business leaders and management gurus. Many organizations have been slow on apply technology on smaller projects and waiting for a more suitable time to make radical change. With the outbreak of the COVID-19, work from home, until then practiced sporadically by companies and organizations, became mandatory. Work from home was looked on as a potential solution to maintain business in this period. (Savić, D. (2020). COVID-19 and work from home: Digital transformation of the workforce. Grey Journal (TGJ), 16(2), 101-104.) With this unavoidable situation, several companies and organizations noticed benefits of work from home e.g. saving in extra expense, more flexibility, and more convenient from using technology. Some companies
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-41 may not need to spend money for renting office as they can change their system to be work from home completely. Not only work pattern that have changed, many meetings or seminars or conferences have also organized online as it is a great choice to reduce expense for both host and participant sides. In the post-COVID-19 era, work pattern of abundant people may switch back as normal mode, especially some kinds of work that cannot use technology to work efficiently. Meanwhile, some occupations consider to adapt telework with their workers such as switching between commute to work and work from home. It is too early to know precisely how much more pervasive work from home will be in the future as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. To have some indication nonetheless, a survey results on American households' expectations for work from home in the future (2022) showed that ratio of work from home was lower than during the COVID-19 situation, but it was still higher than the period before the pandemic. At the same time, percentage of work from home someday (with commuting) was higher than both before and after the COVID-19 as shown in Figure 3.2.2-2. Source: Bick, A., Blandin, A., & Mertens, K. (2020). Work from home after the COVID-19 Outbreak. Figure 3.2.2-2 U.S. Opinion Poll on Future Work Styles Similarly, a survey from bank’s officers in Thailand found that 83.8% of the officers agree to adopt telework system as a normal work system.5 In accordance with another study, one of interviewee say the company add 4:1WFH program into employee benefit permanently meaning that everyone can work from home one day per week. Another company asks sales team not to come to office unless there is an important meeting. Hence, teleworking become new permanent way of working in many businesses. (Sukanya, C. (2020). A prediction of operation and supply chain management in post covid 19 era: in the case manufacturers in Thailand.) 5 Source: ปาริฉัตร, & โชติภูมิเวทย์. (2021). การบริหารจัดการกระบวนการทำงานที่บ้าน (WFH) เพื่อคุณภาพชีวิตของ พนักงานต่อประสิทธิภาพการทำงานในภาวะ วิกฤตโควิด-19 ของกลุ่มธนาคาร (Doctoral dissertation, มหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-42 3.2.2.3 Significant disruption from the COVID-19 The meaning of disruption is synonymous with “interruption”. The term “disruption” is a term often used in business when companies are introduced to new technologies, business models, or service that seems unnecessary at first, but later becomes essential. In this case, the outbreak of COVID-19 is a significant factor accelerates disruption of various businesses and sectors. ▪ Shopping malls and retail outlets: They are business groups that got severe impact during the pandemic. From the tremendous growth in consumers’ use of e-commerce to the rise of personalized mobile shopping apps and elaborate in-store shopping experiences, shopping malls and retail with physical outlets are struggling in state of conventional disruption and vital transformation. With this crisis, leaders of these businesses need to plan new strategy to meet consumer needs and maintain their businesses. ▪ Workplace and office: With the social distancing measure due to the COVID-19, technology and digital platforms were introduced to workers in order to work remotely with efficiency. When people get used to this new system, business owner or CEO have noticed advantages of teleworking as workers are still productive even if they work at their home. Several companies have positive tendency to reduce area of office and consider to permanently add remote work system to the companies’ structure. ▪ Airline business and aircraft manufacturers: In the post-COVID-19 era, airline business may be recovered because restoration of tourism industry. However, traveling with the purpose of work or business dealing may obviously decrease as people nowadays can easily communicate and make contract via online channel without wasting expense. This change will also affect hotel business where is often rented for conference meeting ▪ Clinical research: The unprecedented situation we are facing has strongly disrupted the clinical research rules. Normally, each clinical research must go through complex rules and long period of experiment as it is all about life and death. The COVID-19 has pointed out that sometimes, high level of bureaucracy in research rules place unnecessary burdens on patients and clinicians and it suggests that it is time to alleviate bureaucracy and introduce some practical changes into research organization that will possibly promote patient access to trials and reduce the costs of the clinical research. Furthermore, new clinical procedure was introduced including telemedicine and remote monitoring visits. (Lorusso, D., Ray-Coquard, I., Oaknin, A., & Banerjee, S. (2020). Clinical research disruption in the post-COVID-19 era: will the pandemic lead to change?. ESMO open, 5(5).) ▪ Travel system and transport: Apart from disruption of public transport, green energy which is environmentally friendly will be back on trend. The unprecedented shutdown in industrial activity and the associated reduction in transport emissions resulted in notable improvements
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-43 in local air quality in towns and cities worldwide and a glimpse of a greener future. The outbreak of COVID-19 makes people avoid to use public transport and choose other alternative transports. People who have enough purchasing power prefer to use private cars. In Europe, more citizens decide to walk or use EVs, electric bikes and e-scooters. A survey in May 2020 by the UK independent transport group Transport Focus revealed that 4 in every 10 people surveyed said they will not use public transport again until they feel it is safe to do so. Public transport agencies must plan impacted strategy to increase trustworthiness of passengers, for instance, seat or structure modification to have enough space, installation of automatic doors in order to avoid contact, and regular disinfection and cleaning the vehicle. Moreover, proposing a new concept of responsible transport which is eco-friendly may be a great strategy to attract ridership who want to support environmental conservation in the post-COVID-19 world. (Budd, L., & Ison, S. (2020). Responsible Transport: A post-COVID agenda for transport policy and practice. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 6, 100151.) Another powerful way to attract passengers is to improve and develop transport system with technology. People love convenience, complete information of transport system should be provided for ridership such as time delays, cargo cancellations, traffic jam, or alternative suggested routes. In the future, if people still concern to keep distance with others, real-time application can be excellent choice by notification for passenger to avoid crowed cargos and choose other routes. In addition, transport agency can consider to add public bicycles in different transport junction as an option for passengers. (Sudan, T., & Taggar, R. (2021). Recovering Supply Chain Disruptions in Post-COVID-19 Pandemic Through Transport Intelligence and Logistics Systems: India’s Experiences and Policy Options. Frontiers in Future Transportation, 2, 7.) Improvement of public transport with technology can be used in not only the post-COVID-1 9 situation, but also aging society that is coming up in near future. According to the Foundation of Thai Gerontology Research and Development Institute, Thailand is entering aging society referring to the larger number of elderly people and decreasing childhood and labor age as shown in Figure 3.2.2-3. Thus, the provision of facilities or welfare for aging people especially fundamental infrastructure like transport system is very important. The study results concluded the common characteristics of aging mobility that travel frequency is less than once a week, travel time is the morning, and most of activities is shopping. The transportation should be improved for the convenience. In addition, motorcycle and bike lanes should be developed for serving aging people due to their less income. Furthermore, public transportation should be also enhanced to accommodate their travel activities such as going to the hospital and shopping. ( Champahom, T., Jomnonkwao, S., Nambulee, W., Klungboonkrong, P., Karoonsoontawong, A., & Ratanavaraha, V. (2020). Analyzing transport mode choice for aging society in Thailand. Engineering and Applied Science Research, 47(4), 383-392.) Development of transport system to support both post-COVID-19 era and aging society can be the best long-time solution of public transport.
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-44 Source: Champahom, T., Jomnonkwao, S., Nambulee, W., Klungboonkrong, P., Karoonsoontawong, A., & Ratanavaraha, V. (2020). Analyzing transport mode choice for aging society in Thailand. Engineering and Applied Science Research, 47(4), 383-392. Figure 3.2.2-3 Population of children, working-age and elderly population in Thailand 3.2.2.4 Alteration of society and business in 5G era The COVID-19 is a catalyst for change and development by leaps and bounds. Normally, new technologies and digital transformation have been slow to adapt by all people in society. However, the pandemic significantly accelerated the adoption of digital products and services as we were forced to learn and use them. Therefore, we can totally say that technology is completely a part of our lives from now on Telework: Society in the future tends to have less travel and transport as people can work, study, hold a meeting, and even travel via online platforms. This change can also apply in medical sector. In the near future, patients may not need to go to hospital or can go for only necessary treatment. Medical sector, nowadays, has new system called “Telemedicine” which is the provision of remote clinical services, via real-time two-way communication between the patient and the healthcare provider, using electronic audio and visual means. Telemedicine at the present might be only asking about symptom, symptom monitoring, and providing advice about treatment, but there will be new development in the medical sector soon. An article from a medical magazine recommended how to apply technology with the telemedicine: 1) Mobile and wearable devices can be used to track a number of physiological (e.g., heart rate) and physical activities (e.g., steps) of the patients. Such patient-generated health data can be used together with disease diagnosis, or used to develop digital phenotypes using machine algorithms for generating clinically meaningful insights (e.g., predicting fall risk for an older patient). These technologies assist the doctor in making clinical decision at the point-of-care. 2) Using artificial intelligence to look after the patients. More recently, with voice-based personal devices gaining popularity, there is considerable interest in virtual agents for delivering structured, evidence-based behavioral counseling, and wellness interventions. Similar to seeking care from a therapist, these virtual services can provide ongoing support for the patients. (Kannampallil, T., & Ma, J. (2020). Digital translucence: adapting telemedicine delivery postCOVID-19. Telemedicine and e-Health, 26(9), 1120-1122.) These systems will be benefits for people who live in rural areas far from the hospital.
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-45 E-commerce platform: Parts of the online economy have boomed since the COVID-19 began, the e-commerce sector saw a dramatic rise in its share of all retail sales. The statistics showed reduction ratio of overall shopping in Thailand, but the online transactions showed significant growth as shown in Figure 3.2.2-4. Business sectors have to reform their model from offline to online. These include all types of business e.g. retail, food, plant, furniture, farmer’s product, and others. The COVID-19 is crucial factor that change customer’s behavior from present to new normal in the future. Transport systems and delivery agencies must adjust their plan for better service. Source: National Research Council of Thailand (2020) Figure 3.2.2-4 Statistics on shopping and online transaction in Thailand Automation and AI: The COVID-19 driven advances in automation and artificial intelligence (AI). Various business sectors invest more with this system as it can reduce physical contact among people. Nowadays, automation system plays important roles in people’s daily life i.e. driverless trucks, cars, AGVs, and robotics in factories, warehouses, and highways. The pharmaceutical manufacturing industries use AI to design products or medicine, given that technology can be used to predict and decide in each step of manufacturing. Workers can control manufacturing system remotely. Head of worker can monitor on-site workers via CCTV in order to control social distancing rule. For medical sector, they use robots for symptom diagnosis, and even for some types of operation which can reduce risk of infection. Furthermore, digital technology also takes part in agriculture such as sensors, drones, satellites, and climate-smart agriculture. However, development of automation and AI system need quite long period to efficiently apply in real situation. Given that these new technologies need high expense, only large industries can afford these systems in the earliest stage. But the automation and AI generation will definitely arrive in near future. 3.2.2.5 Conclusion of society and business pattern in the post-COVID-19 In conclusion, emerging of the COVID-19 and worldwide lockdown situation play significant role in changing pattern of society, business, and people lifestyle. These changes can be divided into 8 sectors including: 1) Work ▪ Rise of unemployment ▪ Remote working (Work from home) 2) Shopping and consumption
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-46 ▪ Surge in e-commerce ▪ Decline in spending ▪ Larger basket, reduce shopping frequency 3) Learning ▪ Online-learning ▪ Self-learning 4) Lifestyle ▪ Nesting at home, learning new hobbies, work-life balance ▪ Living life at home e.g. working, studying, resting via online platforms 5) Communications and information ▪ In-person sampling decline ▪ Shift in media consumption 6) Play and entertainment ▪ Preference for digital entertainment ▪ Entertainment channel shift (e.g. cinema to streaming) ▪ Additional play time 7) Travel and mobility ▪ Reduction in travel and transport ▪ Reduction in tourist spend and travel retail ▪ Increase in domestic tourism 8) Health and wellbeing ▪ Focus on health and hygiene ▪ Acceleration of organic, natural, fresh ▪ E-pharmacy & e-doctor at scale The COVID-19 is transforming people lives. Many of the trends are accelerated, we have covered a decade in days when it comes to adoption of digital. Rate of unemployment will increase as various occupations can be replaced by technology. Meanwhile, people with knowledge and ability in technology are in high demand. To follow fast upcoming trend, companies and business sectors need to adapt fast.
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-47 Additional References จณิตตา จารุวัฒนานนท์. (2021). ผลกระทบของการแพร่ระบาดของโรค COVID-19 ต่อพฤติกรรมการเดินทางของ ผู้โดยสารรถไฟฟ้าขนส่งมวลชนในกรุงเทพมหานครและปริมณฑล. การประชุมวิชาการวิศวกรรมโยธาแห่งชาติครั้งที่ 26, 26. ชนิสรา กุลสันติวงศ์. ปัจจัยที่มีอิทธิพลต่อการตัดสินใจเดินทาง ท่องเที่ยวของนักท่องเที่ยวชาวไทย Generation Y หลังโรคระบาดโควิด-19. ศรุตานนท์ ชอบประดิษฐ์. (2020). วิกฤตโควิด19 ส่งผลกระทบต่อการเปลี่ยนแปลงทางสังคมอย่างไร. วารสาร ชัยภูมิ ปริทรรศน์, 3(2), 1-14. Anderson, J., Rainie, L., & Vogels, E. A. (2021). Experts say the ‘new normal’in 2025 will be far more tech-driven, presenting more big challenges. Retrieved from PEW: https://www. pewresearch. org/internet/2021/02/18/experts-say-the-new-normal-in-2025-will-be-far-more-tech-driven-presenting-more-bigchallenges. Kohli, S., Timelin, B., Fabius, V., & Veranen, S. M. (2020). How COVID-19 is changing consumer behavior–now and forever. Mosnaim, G. S., Stempel, H., Van Sickle, D., & Stempel, D. A. (2020). The adoption and implementation of digital health care in the post–COVID-19 era. The Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology: In Practice, 8(8), 2484-2486. Quayson, M., Bai, C., & Osei, V. (2020). Digital inclusion for resilient post-COVID-19 supply chains: smallholder farmer perspectives. IEEE Engineering Management Review, 48(3), 104-110. Wuest, T., Kusiak, A., Dai, T., & Tayur, S. R. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 on manufacturing and supply networks—The case for AI-inspired digital transformation. Available at SSRN 3593540. Wuest, T., Romero, D., Cavuoto, L. A., & Megahed, F. M. (2020). Empowering the workforce in Post– COVID-19 smart manufacturing systems. Smart Sustain. Manuf. Syst, 4(5).
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-48 3.3. Solutions for railways sector during and in aftermath of COVID-19 pandemic The Covid-19 pandemic is substantially affecting passenger rail traffic, in a short-term perspective with large decrease in traffic. However, it will also have long-term effects. Once the pandemic is over, we can expect changes in travel behaviors, but also new routines and technology that will continue to be used. Design of both trains and services will look different. A research article mentioned guidance for the rail sector to better continue providing services throughout future crises. ▪ Resilience: address cash management challenges, learning to accordingly adapt their mobility missions as quickly as possible. ▪ Return: create a detailed plan to return the business to scale quickly. Indicators or indexes might be developed to control the evolution of the instability recovery, to determine the short-term, medium-term, and long-term prevention, recovery, and containment actions, to assess their impacts, and to redefine them if necessary. ▪ Reimagination: re-imagine the ‘‘new normal,’’ to adapt the rail sector to the aftermath of the pandemic, provide service, and maintain competitiveness. ▪ Reform: reform of the mobility policies in light of the pandemic, and its consequences for the public transport sector and for the environment, might be necessary to provide the adoption of best practices in the new context of financial instability and green recovery. ▪ Research: to provide innovative solutions in rail technologies. Research efforts are necessary on the digitalization and automation, studies on reducing operational costs via new transport policies and legal actions, valuable lessons from errors in the COVID-19 pandemic management, and many others. (Source: Tardivo, A. , Carrillo Zanuy, A. , & Sánchez Martín, C. (2021). COVID-19 impact on transport: A paper from the railways’ systems research perspective. Transportation Research Record, 2675(5), 367-378.) Following impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic would be long-lasting for railways and will have to be considered within both strategic documents and applied solutions and technologies: 1) Flexible design ▪ If passenger traffic takes time to recover to pre-pandemic volumes, containers that fits on a passenger seat can be used to transport goods or packages. ▪ Modular seats that can be rotated during a pandemic or the annual flu season. ▪ Materials in train interiors of the future will probably have to be resistant to strong disinfectants or UV light washing. 2) Digitalizing railways ▪ Cashless society with e-ticket ▪ Automated traffic management systems and estimated time of arrival
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-49 ▪ Automation of train driving, hybrid trains ▪ Predictive maintenance ▪ Energy recuperation and resource reuse (Source: White Paper. Rail and the Effects of the COVID19 Pandemic) (Source: Jain, S. R. (2020). Covid-19 and its impact on railway sector in Asia and the Pacific: transport and trade connectivity in the age of pandemics.) 3.3.1 Measures during the spread of COVID-19 in each country In order to increase traveler confidence in rail, operators must be active in the fight against the spread of the COVID-19 disease. The International Union of Railway (2020) recommended measures that railways should manage during COVID-19 pandemic: ▪ Temperature check for passengers ▪ Questionnaire to passengers on their health condition ▪ Masks and other facial covering ▪ Sanitation gel at stations ▪ Social distancing (limit number of people in station, adjust layout of waiting area, adjust boarding process on platform) ▪ On train: limit the capacity of the train with a smart reservation system, mark on the floor to tell appropriate distance, manage passenger flow, manage luggage placement, reorganize the restaurant coach and in train servicing ▪ Maintenance on air circulation system and cleaning more regularly the filters ▪ Increase cleaning and disinfection ▪ Promoting electronic ticket sales, e-ticket, and contactless tickets ▪ Manage waste disposal Source: Yin, Y., Li, D., Zhang, S., & Wu, L. (2021). How does railway respond to the spread of COVID-19? Countermeasure analysis and evaluation around the world. Urban Rail Transit, 7(1), 29-57. Figure 3.3.1-1 Countermeasures during the COVID-19 epidemic
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-50 These are railways transport measures of some countries during COVID-19 are as follows: 1) Europe Equipment and supplies ▪ Provide sufficient equipment to facilitate hand hygiene ▪ Provide protective barriers and/or screens for staffs ▪ Ensure that face masks are available for purchase and provide face masks for staff ▪ Reduce over-crowding by implement dedicated lanes or move items that may increase over-crowding (benches, tables) ▪ Prepare open or “no-touch” bins ▪ Provide information and recommendation for customer including specific measures and health information Maintenance routines ▪ Increase frequency of environmental cleaning schedules appropriate for COVID-19 ▪ Ensure that hand sanitizers are stocked and functional ▪ Maintenance of heating-, ventilation-, and air-conditioning systems in trains Operational measures ▪ Reduce staff-passenger interactions ▪ Reduce over-crowding e.g. automatic openings of doors, queue organizing ▪ Training employees to ensure they have a safe command of the regulations and can therefore inform and advise passengers appropriately ▪ Consult with the manufacturers of the ventilation system for every train (Source: European Union Agency for Railways. COVID-19 Rail Protocol) 2) India, South Korea and China ▪ Use heat cameras in metros and train stations ▪ In china, travelers can use the GPS app AutoNavi to see how crowded each metro station ▪ New disinfection routines for trains, stations and staff ▪ Robots are used for disinfecting the metro trains and stations (Source: White Paper. Rail and the Effects of the COVID19 Pandemic) 3) Japan ▪ Hand sanitizer and soap are provided ad major station ▪ Masks are worn by all station employees
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-51 ▪ Plastic dividers have been installed ▪ The JR East app provide congestion information for train car and some stations ▪ Offering more train options to reduce congestion ▪ When selling reserved seat, employees ensure there is enough space for passengers ▪ The floor is marked adequate social distancing when lining up at ticket machines and sale windows ▪ Cashless boarding and payment via smartphone or IC card ▪ Remind passengers to wear a mask, maintain social distancing, avoid rush hours, work remotely ▪ Disinfection works, cleaning, and ventilation system in train cars Source: East Japan Railway Company. Measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19. https://www. jreast.co. jp/e/customer_support/coronainfo/index.html Figure 3.3.1-2 Measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 for railway system in Japan 4) United State of America ▪ They provide open-air car with only 2 people on each bench seat ▪ All stuffs and guests over 4 years old are required to wear face covering ▪ The stuffs will prepare ticket in touchless manner ▪ Social distancing of six feet or more ▪ Preparation of hand sanitizing at each platform ▪ Encouraging personal hygiene and social distancing via signage and announcement ▪ Only touchless transaction at gift shop ▪ Frequency cleaning and disinfecting high-touch surface ▪ Disinfecting each train car prior to each ride
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-52 (Source: New hope valley railway, 2020, COVID-19 Safety Measures. https://www.triangletrain.com/covid-19-safety-measures/) Figure 3.3.1-3 Measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 for railway system in USA 5) Canada ▪ Prior to boarding the train, passenger will be required to undergo a health check may be administered by an employee at the check-in counter, boarding gate, or passenger car door (asking some questions and looking for visible symptoms) ▪ Denial of boarding if passenger has COVID-19 symptom, except the passenger provide a medical certificate indicating other diseases ▪ Passenger should wear a mask or face covering when physical distancing is not possible (Source: Transport Canada. 2020. COVID-19: Health check guidance for passenger railway companies managing travelers during the on-boarding procedure. https: / /tc.canada.ca/en/rail- transportation/covid-19-health-check-guidance- passenger- railway-companies-managingtravellers-during-boarding-procedure) 6) International freight trains network ▪ Railways-related processes to be carried out remotely in electronic system ▪ Undertaking freight transport without human contact and all freight trains are disinfected both before and after the trip ▪ Developed a software for processing and providing preliminary electronic information to customs authorities for goods transported by rail ▪ Electronic exchange of information between railways (Source: Jain, S. R. (2020). Covid-19 and its impact on railway sector in Asia and the Pacific: transport and trade connectivity in the age of pandemics.) 7) Thailand ▪ Remind passengers to wear a mask, maintain social distancing, no conversation in the train, no face-face position, and always use alcohol gel ▪ Reduce over-crowding (group release) ▪ Seat assignment on train
The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-53 ▪ Exhibit screening point and temperature check at the gate of the station ▪ Increase frequency in cleaning the station and train ▪ Physical distancing markers used at platform level ▪ Check and screen employees’ health before work Figure 3.3.1-4 Measures to control the number of rail passenger during the COVID-19 in Thailand Source: (Bangkok Expressway and Metro. 2021. MRT เน้นย้ำการปฏิบัติตนเมื่อเดินทางในระบบรถไฟฟ้าเพื่อความปลอดภัยและควบคุมการแพร่ระบาดของเชื้อ ไวรัสโควิด-19. https://metro.bemplc.co.th/Metro-News-Detail?id=30419) (Thailand Plus. 2021. รถไฟฟ้า MRT ยังคงคุมเข้มมาตรการป้องกันการแพร่ระบาดของเชื้อไวรัสโควิด–19 จำกัดผู้โดยสารไม่เกินร้อยละ 75 หลังรัฐบาล คลายล็อกดาวน์. https://www.thailandplus.tv/archives/367909) (Siewwuttanagul, S., Kamkliang, S., & Prapaporn, W. (2020). Investigation on Physical Distancing Measures for COVID-19 Mitigation of Rail Operation in Bangkok, Thailand. International Journal of Building, Urban, Interior and Landscape Technology (BUILT), 15, 93-102.)