tast

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-84 between the radial lines. And having a greater number of docking stations will reduce congestion of interchange travel within the station and enhance travel within the inner-city area to be more convenient. In addition, it maintains the concept of having two transportation hubs, namely the Phaholyothin Center in the north and Makkasan Center in the east as a connection point between the mass transit system and other mass transit systems. 4) Existing Network It is an important factor indicating the network that is currently being developed in order to know the status of each mass transit project in progress. to lead to further network planning. 2.3.2.2 Types of Mass Transit Systems There are many types of mass transit systems, especially rail systems in use today. which can be categorized by definitions and formats according to various characteristics such as field characteristics, technology, and operating patterns, etc. Each type has different strengths, weaknesses, and suitability for use. The main factors affecting the consideration of the suitability of various types of mass transit systems are the number of passengers, the condition of the area along the route, construction cost, environmental impact, etc. Each type has characteristics in terms of capacity, investment cost and operating as shown in Table 2.3.2-1 Table 2.3.2-1 Characteristics of each mass transit system Type Capacity (person/hr/ direction) Construction Cost (million baht /km.) Operating costs* (baht/person-km.) Example 1. Underground MRT (6 cars) 40,000 - 50,000 3,500 - 4,500 1.5 - 2.5 2. Elevated MRT (6 cars) 40,000 - 50,000 1,800 - 2,500 1.0 - 1.5 3. Elevated LRT (6 cars) 15,000 - 30,000 1,300 - 2,000 1.5 – 2.0

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-85 Type Capacity (person/hr/ direction) Construction Cost (million baht /km.) Operating costs* (baht/person-km.) Example 4. Monorail (6 cars) 15,000 - 48,000 1,200 - 1,600 1.5 - 2.0 5. At grade LRT (4 cars) 10,000 - 15,000 800 - 1,500 1.5 - 2.0 6. Elevated BRT 5,000 - 15,000 600 - 800 1.5 - 2.0 7. At grade BRT 3,000 - 8,000 200 - 300 1.0 - 1.5 8. Bus Depending on traffic - 1.0 - 1.5 * Preliminary estimate of operating costs at 70% capacity Source: M-MAP, OTP. 2010 2.3.2.3 Network and Route lines It is a project that follows from the government's idea of developing a mass transit system to help solve or alleviate traffic congestion, that construction of 12 mass transit lines (in the accelerating plan according to the Cabinet resolution, 10 lines), with a total distance of approximately 509 km, 312 stations in Bangkok and its vicinities. It is expected that people will be able to travel easily, reduce travel time It has a positive effect on the economy and the environment. The construction is based on the concept. "Master Plan for Rail Mass Transportation" that has been proposed as a model "Radial and Circumferential Pattern" which is suitable for the two development guidelines of Bangkok which is a large city that looks like a single center (Monocentric) and the distribution of suburban communities occurs around. The 12 mass transit lines according to the master plan as shown in Figure 2.3.2-2, that the main network with 8 routes and the secondary network 4 routes.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-86 Source: Adapt form Bangkok Metropolitan Rapid Transit Figure 2.3.2-2 Mass transit project by 2029 as planned (M-Map) The main network consists of a network two suburban trains (Commuter Train, CT) together with one route of the Airport Link Line, totaling approximately 190 km., and Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) 5 routes with a total distance of 217 km. The secondary network is a secondary mass transit system with 4 routes with a total distance of 102 km. As for the plans for the development of the network according to the master plan for the rail mass transit system in Bangkok Metropolitan Region to the M-MAP 2010 plan, it can be divided into different groups according to the order of development, namely: The current network is in service, the network is under construction, the network according to the acceleration plan according to the 2006 Cabinet resolution, the additional network within the year 2019 and the additional network within the year 2029. The network that has not yet begun construction at that time will be used to form a mass transit network plan. The plan can be divided into 3 phases as follows:

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-87 - Phase 1, the accelerating network plan according to the 2006 Cabinet Resolutions Source: M-MAP, OTP. 2010 Figure 2.3.2-3 the accelerating network plan according to the 2006 Cabinet Resolutions - Phase 2, additional network plans within the year 2019 Source: M-MAP, OTP. 2010 Figure 2.3.2-4 Additional network plans within the year 2019

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-88 - Phase 3, Additional network plans within the year 2029 Source: M-MAP, OTP. 2010 Figure 2.3.2-5 Additional network plans within the year 2029 2.3.2.4 Forecasting the number of passengers 1) Traffic and Transport Model For the project of the Master Plan M-MAP 2010, the extended Bangkok Urban Model (eBUM) was used in the project. This is a model developed using CUBE Voyager program by the Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning (OTP) under the project of improvement and maintenance of the information database system and the transport and traffic model. (TDMC 5) Year 2007. The model is a continuation of the Bangkok Extended City Model (BECM). The study was therefore planned using concepts and analysis similar to the eBUM model and to ensure that the model used was accurate and suitable for use in the project. Therefore, the model has been modified to have a current database system. The travel behavior, origin and destination were further surveyed. and validation of the eBUM model, which has been validated by the OTP since the initial model development. In addition, both traffic and passenger traffic were inspected. To verify the correctness of the passenger volume an examination of the mass rapid transit systems in service at that time, namely the Green Line (BTS) and the Blue Line (MRT), found a difference of 1.95%. Able to simulate the current situation. Therefore, such a model is suitable for use in forecasting traffic and passenger traffic in future years.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-89 2) Forecasting the travel demand in the future After reviewing and improving the current year's model to be appropriate and reliable. The model will be applied to forecast passenger traffic in future years. The information used in the forecast consists of socioeconomic changes and plans for transportation projects in the future. The forecast number of passengers in the future can be divided into 2 cases, namely the base case, where the predicted passenger volume is shown in Table 2.3.2-2 and in case there is a project according to the master plan in which the predicted passenger traffic is shown in Table 2.3.2-3. Table 2.3.2-2 Passenger traffic forecast results, Base case Source: M-MAP, OTP. 2010

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-90 Table 2.3.2-3 Passenger traffic forecast results according to the master plan by 2029 Source: M-MAP, OTP. 2010

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-91 2.3.2.5 Investment projections According to the M-MAP project in 2010, the project price of the mass rapid transit system in each line and the alternative routes has been assessed as shown in Table 2.3.2-4 by the price of the Blue Line, Green, Purple and Orange section with detailed designs will use the price from the MRTA and the price of the Red Line is using the price from the SRT. The mass transit lines that have been studied and designed, the price according to the study report will be used and adjusted to the 2009 price. The mass rapid transit lines under the Cabinet's resolution will use the prices as approved by the Cabinet's resolutions, while other mass transit lines are estimated from the central unit price. The projected investment cost of all the mass rapid transit lines contained in the master plan, where the state invests in all construction costs and allow the private sector to invest in electrical and mechanical systems. Except for the red line that is invested by the state, all will require a total investment of 830,470 million baht (665,250 million baht for the state and 165,220 million baht for the private sector), which is an investment for the accelerating network plan according to the cabinet resolution 319,750 million baht (state investment 265,580 million baht and private investment 54,170 million baht) as investment for additional network plans within the year 2019 327,990 million baht (state investment 266,200 million baht and private investment 61,790 million baht) and Investment for additional network plans within the year 2029 182,730 million baht (state investment 133,470 million baht and private investment 49,260 million baht).

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-92 Table 2.3.2-4 Estimating the price of the mass transit project (fixed price in 2009) Source: M-MAP, OTP. 2010

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-93 2.3.2.6 Implementation of the master plan In implementing the M-MAP master plan must be implemented in an integrated manner so that people can use quality services and promoting the use of mass transit systems instead of traveling with personal vehicles concretely at that time, there were agencies that were working on mass transit projects. It consists of 3 units that oversee the mass transit system, namely the Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand (MRTA), Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) and the State Railway of Thailand (SRT) and agencies that provide mass transit services by buses, namely the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority (BMTA), which although the mass transit system will operate under the policies and plans by Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning (OTP), but lack of coordination between each other, resulting in a lack of connection of various systems, both physically and administratively such as the connection of the route Connecting the passenger transfer point and connection of the fare collection system There is also an incomparable quality of service. Therefore, the management of the mass transit system should integrate work methods and organizational structures in order to solve problems that arise. For the implementation of the rail mass transit system in Bangkok and its vicinity according to the M-MAP plan consists of the establishment of the Rail Mass Transit Commission of Thailand (MRTC) and the rail mass transit project implementation plan in Bangkok Metropolitan Region, which has a period of 20 years of the plan (2009-2029), which will set the project implementation process in detail at the master plan level, including the process of studying the suitability of the project, the process of designing details , Environmental Impact Assessment Procedure, Construction Approval Process from the Cabinet, Procedure for Finding Funding, Procedure for Tendering and Hiring Contractors, Construction Process and system testing procedures. The planning will review the current status of each project and consider its compliance with the group of plans that have been set up, namely the accelerating plan according to the 2006 Cabinet Resolutions, the additional network plan by 2019, and additional networks within the year 2029, will be divided into groups of responsible agencies, namely the State Railway of Thailand (SRT), the Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand (MRTA) and Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA). The details of the project implementation plan are shown in Table 2.3.2-5, which are divided by responsible departments. It consists of the following steps: 1) Feasibility Study 2) Detail Design 3) Environmental Impact Assessment, EIA 4) Cabinet 5) Funding 6) Bidding 7) Construction 8) Test Run

Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-94 Table 2.3.2-5 20-year M-MSource: M-MAP, OTP. 2010

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) MAP Master Plan (2010 - 2029)

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-95 However, the implementation of the M-MAP master plan could not be carried out as planned due to the following obstacles as following. Table 2.3.2-6 Obstacles Routes Sections Obstacles Red Line (North - South) Bang Sue - Hua Lamphong The Hua Lamphong - Wongwian Yai section is being revised to be an underground route and a new environmental impact assessment report is being prepared. Hua Lamphong - Mahachai The Hua Lamphong - Wongwian Yai section is being revised to be an underground route and a new environmental impact assessment report is being prepared. Red Line (East-West) Bang Sue - Hua Mak Waiting for clarity on the operation as the route overlaps with the High Speed train connecting three airports. Light Blue line Din Daeng - Sathorn The project is not being pushed. Grey Line WatcharaphonThonglor There was a delay due to the EIA approval process, which was completed in 2022. Phra Khanong-Tha Phra Waiting for the implementation of the Watcharapol - Thonglor section, which is a pilot project. At this time, BRT is already operating. Blue Line Lak SongPhutthamonthon Sai 4 It is not yeald enough benefit for investment. Green Line (Silom) National Stadium - Yotse Waiting for the operation of the Red Line electric train from Bang Sue - Hua Lamphong section. Green Line (Sukhumvit) Samut Prakan - Bang Pu It is not yeald enough benefit for investment. Lam Luk Ka - Outer Ring Road It is not yeald enough benefit for investment. Purple LIne Bangyai – Rat Burana The problem of expropriation of land in the southern part of Tao Poon - Rat Burana Orange Line Bang Khun Non - Min Buri The problem of expropriation of land and Bidding process. It was found that there are 3 cases of problems and there are solutions as follows. • Benefit for investment In this respect, the methods for forecasting ridership should be improved to have more accurate. This corresponds to the work in this project that has developed a rail demand model that specifically focuses on forecasting rail system demnd. • Land readiness issues. Due to current Bangkok and surrounding areas have more urban development. It makes land expropriation more difficult. Therefore, the development of the MMAP2 master plan focuses on developing

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-96 guidelines that minimize land expropriation as physical conditions have been developed as one of the conditions for screening routes. • Private sector selection issues The current private selection will open bidding envelopes for each project that causing delays. In addition, there are only a few rail operators in Thailand. Therefore, bidding should be carried out at the same time in all routes according to the master plan. This may be a form of discussion and allocation among the government sectors and the private sector for fairness. 2.3.3 The rail mass transit system according to the M-MAP2 Blueprint plan OTP, in collaboration with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), has conducted a preliminary study on the M-MAP2 Blueprint to review, modify and suggest additional routes. as well as to find ways to increase the efficiency of joint services of public transport in Bangkok and its vicinities in various forms to increase the proportion of using public transport and reduce the use of personal cars. In the study, M-MAP2 Blueprint is divided into 3 main parts as follows: ▪ Part 1: A review of economic, social conditions and the expansion of Bangkok and its vicinities. To find ways to improve/advise on the rail mass transit route in addition to the projects set forth in the M-MAP. ▪ Part 2: Improving the Travel Demand Forecasting Model, focusing on the latest traffic model improvements developed from the Travel Demand Study Project ( Travel Demand Survey) and improve the movement of goods database. For planning the country's transportation system by OTP in 2015 in order to make the model more suitable for use in forecasting travel demand by rail mass transit systems. ▪ Part 3: Guidelines for further implementation of the results of the M-MAP2 Blueprint and the push to implement the results. For the study of the mass transit network in Phase 2 (M-MAP2Blueprint) studied in 2018, it will focus on the development of secondary routes to support the expansion of the city and feed passengers to the main routes. The seven routes of Bangkok are the Dark Green Line, Light Green Line, Blue Line, Purple Line, Dark Red Line, Light Red Lineand the Airport Rail Link. action and/or still under study and/or is a plan outside the master plan and/or canceled from the original master plan of 4 routes to be packaged as pilot routes Including the Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand is also preparing to offer 8 more train lines to be included in the master plan. Thus, there are 11 routes in the initial plan as follows: ▪ Gray Line, Watcharaphon - Rama 9 section ▪ Gold Line Between Krung Thon Buri Station - Prachadhipok ▪ Bang Na –Suvarnabhumi light rail, Thep Ratana Section (Bang Na) -Suvarnabhumi Airport ▪ Yellow Line Ladprao - Prachachuen extension ▪ Yellow Line Samrong - Ratburana extension

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-97 ▪ Brown Line, Khae Rai - Lam Sali Section ▪ Golden Line, Pak Kret - Kanchanaphisek section ▪ Pink Line Minburi - Suvarnabhumi extension ▪ Silver Line, Taling Chan - Chaiyapruek section ▪ Ring Road Line, Bang Yai - Rama 2 section ▪ Purple Line Bang Yai - Bang Kruai extension Subsequently, OTP has revealed details of the draft Mass Transit System Master Plan Phase 2, which has been agreed with JICA, stipulating that there will be 5 new electric train routes, 131 kilometers, both extending from the original route and drafting a new route. new It aims to connect the main routes that lack a mass transit system (Missing Link) to support the expansion of neighboring cities and provinces. and ready to connect to the three major mass transit stations of Bangkok, whether Bang Sue Central Station elevated to the new central train station of Bangkok, Makkasan Station The elevated gateway is connected to the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) and the river station. to develop and upgrade as an important connection point of the mass transit system in Thailand which each route is as follows: ▪ Maenam - Thep Ratana - Suvarnabhumi Line, a distance of 33 kilometers, is a modified route from the route of the light blue line. to connect to the suburban train, the light red line, at the Maenam Station Originally, Bangkok studied at the destination station at the Sanphawut intersection. In front of Phra Khanong Provincial Court and canceled plans to expand the separate route to Wat Sri Waree Noi Let the route turn to end at Suvarnabhumi Airport. The purpose is to reduce the congestion of the Suvarnabhumi Airport Rail Link that will be converted to a high-speed train. to support the expansion of the city in Bang Phli District Samut Prakan Province and increase the potential of the Maenam station. ▪ Thong Lor - Ram Inthra - Lam Luk Ka Line, a distance of 30 kilometers, comprising the former study route of the canceled Gray Line, namely the Thong Lor - Watcharaphon section, a distance of 16 kilometers, and the additional study route, the Watcharaphon - Lam Luk Ka section, 14 kilometers, by studying the extension of the shore line. Watcharaphon to the end and connected to the BTS Skytrain Sukhumvit line at Lam Luk Ka area the purpose is to support the expansion of the city in Lam Luk Ka District. Pathum Thani Province. ▪ Rangsit - Thanyaburi Line, a distance of 12 kilometers, is a new study route to connect the Dark Red Line suburban train to Rangsit and Thanyaburi areas Pathum Thani Province which is home to 4 universities, namely Thammasat University Rajamangala University of Technology Thanyaburi Bangkok University and Rangsit University. ▪ Borommaratchachonnani - Lak Si Line, 30 kilometers long, is a new study route to connect the mass transit network to the main route that lacks mass transit systems.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-98 ▪ Bang Wa - Nonthaburi - Bang Kapi Line, a distance of 42 kilometers, is a continuation route from the Bang Wa - Taling Chan Extension Study Plan of the Light Green Line. and the study path of the Brown Line to become a ring road to connect two provinces, Bangkok and Nonthaburi and connect to areas that do not have a public transport system to access Originally, the aforementioned route was the study route of the Yellow Line, which will be the Outer Ring Road of Bangkok. Source: Adapt from OTP. Figure 2.3.3-1 M-MAP2 Blueprint 2.3.3.1 Directions of Mass Transit Development in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region The Directions of Mass Transit Development in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region ( Bangkok Metropolitan Region: BMR) defined in the M-MAP2Blueprint studyhas taken into account the vision of the future, including the current situation and opportunities of the urban transport sector, which the overall policy direction for the development of mass transit systems in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region Divided into 5 important policy directions as follows: 1) To alleviate traffic congestion in the city center: The most serious transport issue in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region is the serious traffic congestion in the city center. Therefore, the highest priority for urban railway development is increasing the capacities of mass transit in the city center to make the Bangkok Metropolitan Region a competitive and attractive city. This policy direction is elaborated in four key measures.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-99 2) To strengthen the overall railway network in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region: In order to strengthen the Bangkok Metropolitan Region as a metropolis, it is important to develop a mass rapid transit network to connect the various areas in the region, specifically to integrate all types of urban development patterns existing in the region. 3) To enhance accessibility to the stations: An easier access to the railway can enhance its use more effectively. Accessibility can be a critical factor to change the existing mindset which prefers cars to public transport. 4) To provide value-added mass transit services to promote public transport: In order to promote a modal shift, it is important to make public transport attractive for car users. There are a variety of measures to provide comfortable and attractive services in mass rapid transport operations. 5) To enhance accessibility to global gateways: The last, but not least, policy direction is to provide users with a secure, punctual, and convenient access to international/ regional gateways. Since the Bangkok Metropolitan Region attracts more than 21.5 million visitors, it is critical to provide such access from/to the international airports and to/from city centers. 2.3.3.2 Global Competitiveness of Bangkok as an International City Based on the 2017 Global Power City Index (GCPI) of the Institute for Urban Strategies of the Mori Memorial Foundation, Bangkok ranks 33rd out of 44 of the world's leading cities in the comprehensive ranking, which evaluates major cities on their comprehensive power to attract creative people and business enterprises from around the world. In particular, Bangkok gained a lot in the “cultural interaction sector" in 2017, owing to the increasing number of international conferences held in the city, the number of museums, and the number of visitors from abroad. In addition, Bangkok topped the 2017 Global Destination Cities Index of cities popular with tourists. The city attracts about 21.47 million visitors a year, followed by London which has 19.88 million and Paris with 18.03 million. These rankings clearly show that Bangkok is one of the leading cities in the world to be visited by both business people and tourists. Based on the GCPI, Bangkok ranks 20th in the transportation and accessibility sector, which is based on the number of international transportation networks and international flights with direct connections to Bangkok, inner-city transportation services, and traffic convenience. On the other hand, Bangkok is the worst in evening road congestion in the world, based on the Global Traffic Scorecard survey, which analyzes and ranks the impact of traffic congestion in 1,360 cities in 38 countries across five continents. Bangkok drivers spent an average 64.1 hours a year in traffic jams. Accordingly, Bangkok has faced serious air pollution.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-100 2.3.3.3 Goal of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region Plan: Sustainable Metropolis Leading the AEC Considering the international positioning of Bangkok and the socio-economic role of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region, the goal of the latter is to become a sustainable metropolis leading the ASEAN economic community (AEC). The Thai government plans to achieve this through the following five roles: 1) Economic and technological hub in AEC: Bangkok Metropolitan Region is expected to continue to be as a center of industrial hub of AEC as it has been for several decades. At the same time, it aims to promote more high-value-added industries with advanced technology. 2) Livable and joyful metropolis with a comprehensive transport network: A transport network is particularly important to ensure good mobility of visitors and residents. 3) Attractive metropolis with national and cultural identities: As the most attractive tourist city in the world, it is inevitable for the metropolis to keep its uniqueness by preserving its natural and cultural resources. 4) Healthy metropolis with a natural environment: As Thailand has become a more developed country, people have become more concerned with environmental issues, including climate change. It is important to ensure a high quality of life by promoting people's health and comfort and improving its green spaces and air quality. 5) Center for national administration, international and social organizations: As a regional center of Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Bangkok Metropolitan Region is expected to host offices of international and regional organizations. 2.3.3.4 Issues on Mass Transit Development 1) Congestion inside Train Car and at Station The extensions of the mass transit line from the city center to suburbs added commuter ridership to the network. With the limited transport capacity provided by three to four cars per set, most of the trains are now full during peak hours. Transport capacity has not increased much over the years as few new trains were put in service. Not only inside the trains, but also the station platforms at the inbound direction during morning peak hours and at the outbound direction during evening peak hours are heavily crowded with people. Most passengers must queue for 10 minutes and skip 2–3 trains before they are able to board. At the interchange stations, such as Siam, Asok, and Sukhumvit, passengers suffer with crowded platforms beyond the designed capacity. They are forced to wait at the concourse and stairs before getting to the platforms. This is expected to worsen when the lines are gradually extended to cover suburban areas. Bangkok Mass Transit System Public Company Limited (BTSC) decided to invest on platform screen doors (PSD) at busy stations at their own cost in the initially opened sections to secure the safety and security of the passengers, while PSDs for the extended sections are provided as part of the extension projects.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-101 Note: Numbers 1 is survey date and time, 2 is head between trains (in minutes), 3 is number of trains the passengers miss due to congestion, and 4 is congestion ratio. Source: M-MAP2Blueprint, JICA 2019 Figure 2.3.3-2 Congestion inside Train and at Station Congestion ratio is used to express the state of peak-hour congestion by the ratio of the number of passengers to the train capacity. According to the Japanese standard, the ratio typically indicates that: ▪ 100% means about 3 passengers stand on 1 m2 of floor space; ▪ 200% means about 7 passengers stand on 1 m2 of floor space; and ▪ 250% means about 9 passengers stand on 1 m2 of floor space. A terrible peak-hour train congestion in Tokyo is represented by a congestion ratio of 200% at major commuter lines. The government has set the benchmark of 180% as the immediate target and 150% as the future provision. When it comes to Bangkok, the ratio in the 10-km radius from city center already shows over 180% in large areas, which obviously prove the need for increasing transport capacity. Considering the network extensions to the suburbs that will carry more commuters from adjoining provinces, strengthening transit network in the city center is also the key to reduce excessive congestions and address unsafe conditions of the existing service. 2) Station transfer time in the peak hours Station transfer time is another element of inconvenience for mass transit passengers. During peak hours, the 11- to 13-minute walk from BTS Saladaeng Station to MRT Silom Station and vice versa is the longest interchange time between mass transit lines. The transfer between MRT Petchaburi and ARL Makkasan Stations is another example of a long walk-as long as 10 minutes-through inconvenient locations. Even the best transfer opportunity at BTS Siam Station, which typically takes 2 minutes with a change in platform level, becomes unappealing to passengers during peak hours due to over-congestion. This is largely because of lack in coordination between the systems, especially when built by different authorities, e.g., connection between BTS and ARL Phaya Thai Station. Transit operators recognized the

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-102 need for their early involvement in the planning and designs of interchange facilities, incorporating their knowledge and experience to provide more convenient transfers. Source: M-MAP2Blueprint, JICA 2019 Figure 2.3.3-3 Station Transfer Time in the Peak Hours 3) Results of People's Perception Survey The purpose of the study is to understand how locals and foreigners find the services of mass transit systems and what services they expect. The highlights of this preliminary survey results are: ▪ Majority of rail users spend less than 20 minutes aboard in a single journey. ▪ A third of rail users spend less than 10 minutes for access to the nearest station, another third spends 10–20 minutes, and the remaining one-third spend over 20 minutes. ▪ Seventy percent of users spend less than 10 minutes for egress from the station to the destination. ▪ Top three reasons of user's dissatisfaction are insufficient coverage, charged twice for fare when travelling across the lines, and congestions inside trains and at stations. Similarly, reasons of non-rail users' un-use of service are coverage, fare and congestions. ▪ Top three actions that people think are important are to strengthen mass transit network in the city center, to extend the network to sub-center and to ensure good intermodal transfer. From the peoples' perception surveys, it was understood that the direction should include: ▪ Developing mass-transit to run in the area where people live or will live. ▪ Establishing mass-transit to link with sub-centers. ▪ Strengthening transport capacities in central area.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-103 Source: M-MAP2Blueprint, JICA 2019 Figure 2.3.3-4 Result of Peoples' Perception Survey Assessment of Railway Users on Current Railway Services Reasons of Non-Rail Users why Not Using Railway Important actions for future mass transitdevelopment

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-104 2.3.3.5 Implementation of The Additional Survey 1) Survey on an Access to Major Transport Hub To understand the situation of the movement to/from outside study area, a traffic count survey and O-D interview survey at the major transport hub such as Don Mueang Airport, Suvarnabhumi Airport, and Bang Sue Station need to be conducted. As a result, the estimation of O-D table can utilize this database for higher accuracy. 2) Stated Preference (SP) Survey SP Survey can be considered as a major requirement for the restructure of the modal split model and the railway (public transit) route assignment model. In SP survey, the main goal is to determine the value of time (VOT). However, not a general VOT, but the VOT of each trip component, such as waiting time, transfer time, as well as willingness to pay for comfortability need to be considered. To distinguish the characteristics of the people's behavior, analysis could be done separately between the captive and the selective group, so the survey should also take this into consideration. Also, the design of questionnaire should be considered so that the respondent can easily understand the question and answer with ease. 2.3.3.6 Revision of Demand Forecasting Pre-conditions 1) Traffic Analysis Zone Revision The traffic analysis zone at present does not reflect travel characteristics of some area. The large number of zones will take long time to calculate the demand. Therefore, it is required to revise zoning. Zoning can be based on the following considerations ▪ Area of zone should be determined based on similarity of the socio-economic characteristics. ▪ Since zoning should be able to describe the competition among railway lines and stations, one zone should have at most one station. In other words, a zone with more than two stations should be divided into one zone-one station. ▪ Calculation time can be main consideration to determine the number of zones. Modal Classification Since modal share of some modes are very low, classification of the transport mode should be reconsidered based on the following criteria - Similarity in level of service (LOS) - Modal Share (the modes with very low modal should be grouped as “others")

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-105 Transport Network Road network: should be set based on several considerations such as competition between modes and routes, and access link to the station. Future roads should be also considered as additional links at the different time frame. Bus Network: The current information on the bus network is still unclear. Further confirmation is needed and, if necessary, the bus network in the demand forecast should be revised based on the actual network. Level of service (LOS) Setting Road: In order to evaluate a variety of transport policies, the demand analysis models should be able to incorporate costs such as travel (fuel) cost, toll cost and parking cost in LOS calculation. Furthermore, the model should be able to incorporate a vehicle cost (cost paid to buy a vehicle) as one of the vehicle user cost if it is necessary, considering the model structure. Bus and Paratransit: The current information on the bus network is still unclear. Further confirmation is needed and, if necessary, the bus and paratransit LOS for demand forecast should be further revised. Railway: In order to evaluate a variety of fare policies, zonal fare system and additional charge at the designated section should be calculated. 2.3.3.7 Recommendations for improvement toward Railway-Focused Model During the course of the Demand Forecast Sub-WG, the overall framework and detail modeling structure of existing e-BUM2 and its result of demand analysis were reviewed carefully. After that, current issues of the existing e-BUM2 were identified, based on which a long list of improvement of the e-BUM2 was proposed as shown in Table 2.3.3-1. The long list of improvement has been categorized into three types, namely (i) immediate improvement, (ii) improvement necessary for M-MAP2, and (iii) future improvement. First, “(i) immediate improvement” has been completed as the updated e-BUM2 in late 2018, which has been summarized in the Final Report. Second, “(ii) improvement necessary for M-MAP2” includes revisions with high priority and is expected to be revised in the railway focused model by DRT so that M-MAP2 can be formulated based on this model. The proposed scope of works for the revision is proposed in Table 4.1. Regarding the third, “(iii) future improvement”, it would involve higher technical challenges that require longer time for discussion and cooperation.

Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-106 Table 2.3.3-1 Recommendations for improvNo. Topic Issue Reason 1 Zoning Study Area Study area • Study area in the model and Planned/Targeted area in the master plan are not matched •Both present and future trip characteristics should be considered. ••2 Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) Zoning size •TAZ does not reflect the travel characteristics of some areas. • If the number of zones is high, it will take a lot of time to calculate the demand •••

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) vement toward Railway-Focused Model Latest Discussion Remark • Study area will be decided that the majority of the trips must have their origin and destination inside the defined study area. • Trip from external zone to study area could be simplified by creating a special zone as a hub for intercity trip (such as regional bus terminals, or Bangsue Station, as long as it is not a personal car). Then the trip counted in this study can be considered as an access/egress trip. Improvement is necessary for M-MAP2 • Socio-economic characteristics should also be considered in segmenting TAZ so the zoning must be compatible with other administrative divisions • Accessibility to train station should be considered too. One zone per one station is suggested. • Hierarchical Zoning System: aggregate zoning for trip generation and distribution, finer zoning for mode choice and route assignment. Improvement is necessary for M-MAP2

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) No. Topic Issue Reason 3 Survey Household Travel Survey Low number of samples • Small sample size poses high variation and results in low accuracy of survey results. •••4 Sampling bias • Samples had been distributed according to the number of households in each area without considering socio-economic characteristics ••5 Household travel survey gathered only 1-day travel data •The travel pattern is different each day, especially weekdays and weekend days. ••6 Survey Data Trip rates may be unreliable • Sample size is much lower than acceptable standard. ••7 Accuracy and precision of travel time and speed are required •Travel time is answered by interviewee and the perception time may be answered. It plays a significant role in model calibrations and validations. •

Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-107 Latest Discussion Remark • For 1 million population or more, it's recommended that the sample size should be 5% or at least 3%. • Therefore, a larger sample size should be collected in the future. but the survey expense will increase. • To reduce the cost, the study to utilize other sources of relevant data, such as GPS, and cellular data should be also examined. Improvement is necessary for M-MAP2 • Sampling distribution should take into account each class of the socio-economic characteristics. • To considering the socio-economic characteristics of the sample, household information is necessary. However, this also creates another issue regarding the method to acquire household information. Future Improvement • Travel data should be collected for each day of week (2 or more). But the survey cost will be increased. • Efficient survey methodology also should be considered such as mobile application survey Future Improvement • Same with issue of low number of samples. • In addition, the persons conducting household interviews must be appropriately trained and survey questionnaires should bemade as simple as possible. Improvement is necessary for M-MAP2 • Travel time should be verified by surveying the travel time of eachsegment of the main roads (Moving observer method might beused) Future Improvement

Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-108 No. Topic Issue Reason 8 Population Population data Estimated Population data should be rechecked • After distributing forecasted population data to TAZ, population density in some areas decreased.Relying on land use data is not sufficient for this estimation. ••9 Household Income data Aggregated future household income target from NESDB had been used •The household income target from NESDB is aggregated data, but actually, the income trend projection of each province should be different. •10 Employments Data Employments data had been distributed to TAZ by using land-use data of each zone. •Relying on land use data is not sufficient. •11 land-use model There is no transport and land use interaction •There is a strong relationship between transport and land use. ••

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Latest Discussion Remark • More disaggregated data should also be considered. • Main data: from National CensusSupplementary data:electric consumption data or GIS data Improvement is necessary for M-MAP2 • Forecasted growth rate by each province should be based on the current trend. Immediate Improvement (Improved in Blueprint) • More disaggregated data should also be considered. Data from other sources such as the business registered and social security data registration should be used. Improvement is necessary for M-MAP2 • Land use model needs to be calibrated and the combination system between transport demand forecast model and Land use model needs to be built. • The content of land use model was not decided yet Future Improvement

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) No. Topic Issue Reason 12 Trip generation SEEDING Furness method was used to distributed household size and vehicle ownership. • Furness method is not represented the realistic result as it is based only on the constraints in each category to reconcile the data. •13 Cross - Classification model This method requires a large sampling size in order to obtain an adequate sample for each category. •The cross-classification model should be improved with more detail data thus the sampling method should be improved. •14 Trip rates adjustment Area types were classified by only land use data; CBD, URBAN, SUBURBAN. •The area types should be considered the development of the existing and future mass transit lines, which is not reflected in current CBD, URBAN, and SUBURBAN at the moment. •15 Mode Split Model Survey form Stated Preference (SP) questionnaire should be revised • Stated Preference (SP) questionnaire was too complex and consisted of too many questions •16 Model The scale parameter of Nested Logit Model •The scale parameter of Nested Logit Model is equal to 1, which implies that there is no nested correlation. •17 Parking policy can be evaluated by the model •The model does not consider the parking fee, so parking policy cannot be evaluated. •••18 Hourly demand forecast Off-peak commuting policy and dynamic pricing policy cannot be evaluated •The model does not evaluate hourly demand •

Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-109 Latest Discussion Remark • Correlation between household size and vehicle ownership should be modeled using regression analysis. Improvement is necessary for M-MAP2 • Minimum sampling requirement should be met for each category. Improvement is necessary for M-MAP2 • Area types should be classified by considering the public transportation system e.g. metro. Immediate Improvement (Improved in Blueprint) • The SP experiment should be constructed for different valuation:value of time, value of waiting time, value of transfer, value of comfortability. There can be different experiments for each withsufficient sample size. Improvement is necessary for M-MAP2 • It is better to revise the nested structure and new VOT from other studies will be used for model revision Immediate Improvement (Improved in Blueprint) • Model calibration will be done including parking cost as carcost. • Parking space should be also considered. • Parking behavior should be surveyed and incorporated into themodel. Improvement is necessary for M-MAP2 • It is necessary to improve the demand forecast model to evaluated hourly demand. For this analysis, an interview survey with enterprise and commuter is also required to understand which fare and duration they are going to choose and model should be calibrated based on the result. Improvement is necessary for M-MAP2

Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-110 No. Topic Issue Reason 19 Others Competition among modes •The model is not able to express the competition of the modes partly ••20 Persistent private vehicle user •The model structure cannot handle the private vehicle user who does not shift to public transit accurately even if the fare is very low. •21 Introduction of Activity-Based Model (ABM) •The 4-step model cannot evaluate several policies in M-MAP2, such as working time shift policy or park&ride / kiss&ride policy ••Source: M-MAP2Blueprint, JICA 2019

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Latest Discussion Remark • Model structure should be discussed more to enhanceaccuracy. • Railway demand forecast model should be separately developed from highway model Improvement is necessary for M-MAP2 • How much percentage of these people, and what is the trend of this percentage in the future, should be determined first. Then themodel structure should be discussed more. Future Improvement • Since ABM has never been introduced in a large-scale model, it is suggested that ABM should be developed as a pilot study in parallel with a conventional 4-step model. • Data from additional surveys, such as mobile application survey, is required to support ABM. Future Improvement

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-111 2.3.3.8 Comparison of Proposed Demand Forecast Models A comparison of three demand forecast models is shown from different aspects. To avoid the confusion, three demand forecast models are categorized based on theoretical perspective as shown in Table 2.3.3-2 Table 2.3.3-2 Categorization of the demand forecast model Trip-Based Model Activity-Based Model (ABM) Comprehensive Model New e-BUM (OTP) (3-step model w/o railway route assignment) - Railway-Focused Model Railway-Focused Model (DRT) (4-step model, railway focused) ABM-Railway-Focused Model (DRT) (activity-based, railway focused) * OTP = Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning DRT = Department of Rail Transport Source: M-MAP2Blueprint, JICA 2019 ▪ The new e-BUM: This model will be developed for OTP as a comprehensive urban transport model. Due to the limitation in model structure in this model, the new e-BUM should not be used for demand forecasting and policy evaluation in M-MAP2. ▪ The Railway-Focused Model: Similar to e-BUM, this model will be developed based on tripbased approach. However, this model will be restructured specifically for railway demand forecast purpose. The restructuring process has to be conducted from the beginning, i.e., zoning, railway network, station access, etc. JICA Study Team suggests that the railway-focused model, developed by DRT will be utilized for M-MAP2 as the main model. ▪ The ABM-Railway-Focused Model: Due to some technical limitations in trip-based model structure, ABM is also suggested as a pilot study in M-MAP2 project. Depends on the necessity of the policy evaluation items which can be evaluated only by ABM, the ABM railway-focused model is suggested for M-MAP2 as an auxiliary model.

TDepartment of Rail Transport Final Report 2-112 1) General Comparison Three demand forecast models can be compared from 5 general perspTable 2.3.3-3 General comparison oTable of comparison Trip-Based Model New e-BUM RailwaModel overview • OTP model •Based on the updated e-BUM in late2018 (no railway route assignment) • DRT model • Improved by nesurvey, includin• Mode choice me-BUM •Railway route ass(1) Policy evaluation • Transportation Demand Management (TDM) • Kiss&Ride, Park&Ride • Pricing policy • Population aging • Shift from private automobiles to publictransportation • In-train congestion • Transfer during peak hours • Station accessibility etc. • A train route assignment model which includes future railway network, fare rates and level of service (e.g. frequency), is not included. Because of this, railway related policy discussions cannot be made. •Based on the model structureevaluations. •Policy which calisted and preseyear. The revisiotime. (2) Role of demand forecast in master plan formulation • High accuracy • In this model, railway route assignment model is not adopted. • As railway network expanded, multiple route choices can occur Without railway • Japan has expefor policy evalu• In Japan, the reutilized for seve

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) pectives as follows. of the demand forecast model ABM-Railway-Focused Model ay-Focused Model ew input data from the new ng HIS (OTP procurement) model will be improved from signment model will be added • DRT model •Share the same network and based data as Railway-Focused Model •Trip structure will be modeled based on ABM • Mobile Application Survey is suggested to acquire a better Spatiotemporal (space-time) and trip behavior data choice of parameters, this e can support several policy an be evaluated have been ented during the meeting last on of the list is provided this •Since there is no practical application of ABM in the field of railway planning, more practical achievement is needed to discuss the ability of ABM to evaluate railway-related policy. erience utilizing 4-step model uation in railway master plan. esult of demand forecast is eral decisions, such as railway •The introduction has been considered in various countries • Introduction in individual projectshave been started recently

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Table of comparison Trip-Based Model New e-BUM Railwa• High interpretability ( can be easily explained) • Developed based on accumulated experience • Can evaluate various policies • Latest model can be introduced • Etc. route assignment model, competition among multiple routes cannot be reflected in the demand forecast model. Based on the result of this model, the master plan could be developed in different direction. investment planand the corporacompanies. • Due to this, aroperiod of high ethere was a demand strong forecast results•The data, preprocess were rdetailed to the •The demand foas the Sendai Shave been brouwas essential tbased ona prov(3) Interpretability •The model can be separated into 4 steps, from trip generatioassignment. At each step the results can be checked, analyzebe easy to explain to the public and stakeholders. (4) Practical application •The current e-BUM does not have the railway route assignment component. However, the current e-BUM is developed based on the concept of 4- step model so railway route assignment component can be added based on the current model. • In case if disaggless sample is restimation. • In Japan, there 4-step model sforecast model cases, such as n

Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-113 ABM-Railway-Focused Model ay-Focused Model n for the central government ate business plan for railway ound the year 2000 when a economic growth had ended, mand for social responsibility criticism against demand . erequisites, and calculation required to be explained in public and stakeholders. orecast results of cases such Subway and Shizuoka Airport ught to court. As a result, it to formulate a master plan ven demand forecast model. on to railway route ed, and evaluated, thus will • Model structure (destination assignment model, time axis, etc.)requires thorough explanation and understanding, and it is also necessary to examine the method of explanation gregate model is applied, required for parameter is a long history of railway ince 1985.This demand has been utilized in many national and local railway •There are many variations of the proposed model structure in ABM.Without development experiences, it is difficult to decide the best model to suit M-MAP2. • Moreover, additional samples and data are required for model development. • With more data, more calculation resource is required.

TDepartment of Rail Transport Final Report 2-114 Table of comparison Trip-Based Model New e-BUM Railwa• Many examples of practical applications in other countries. master plan, raicorporate plann•1-2 years are rerevision processroute assignme(5) Theoretical point of view •The result in each step of 4-step model can be separately ch• Comparing to ABM, the detail of trip behavior such as time, prelationship between each trip is more difficult to be reflecte•Effective when modeling routine activity such as commuting trailway masterplan in Japan, in-train congestion during peak hissues. By comparing the demand forecast result of the pre- apossible to evaluate the effectiveness of the new railway inveof congestion relief. Source: M-MAP2Blueprint, JICA 2019

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) ABM-Railway-Focused Model ay-Focused Model ilway licensing, and ning in a railway company. equired for the model s (especially for railway nt component). •To develop ABM model for railway planning purposes, there is no commercial software for the analysis. •Practically, it is suggested that ABM should be developed as a pilot study first. The model should be continuously developed to the desired level before the practical usage. • At least 5 years are expected for ABM development process. Thus, the required data should be prepared prior to the model development process. hecked place, trip purpose and the ed in 4-step model trips. In the case of the hours is one of the main and post-service, it is estment from the viewpoint • O-D estimation depends on the setting activity pattern. So, based on the assumption of the activity pattern setting, there is a possibility that some trips are not included in the assumption. •Trip behavior in each day is deliberately modeled in detailed. For instance, to estimate the railway demand in automotive city, availability of the parking facility for park and ride/kiss and ride can be effectively reflected in ABM. • In case of multiple trips during the short time span, the trip decision is depending on the condition of the connecting trips (trips before and after). In this case, ABM can efficiently model the relationship between the connecting trips.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-115 2) Comparison by Proposed M-MAP2 Policies Depending on the model structure and the main purpose of the model itself, different demand forecast model has different capabilities for policy evaluation. Since the new e-BUM will be developed as a comprehensive model, policy evaluation specific to railway would be difficult to be evaluated by the new e-BUM. The railway focused model will be developed for railway-related purposes, so most of the M-MAP2 policy can be handled by this model. However, due to the limitation in model structure, some complex policies such as the effect of TOD and dynamic pricing would be difficult to be evaluated by the railway focused model. For these policy evaluations, ABM with the component tailored for these evaluations is required. Based on the proposed policy directions in the M-MAP2 Blueprint, the ability to evaluate MMAP2 policies by three demand forecast models is summarized as shown in Table 2.3.3-4 The evaluation is categorized into four groups as follows: ✓ Can be evaluated with a further model revision ? Can be evaluated, but the model is not directly developed to support this evaluation ☓ Cannot be evaluated — not applicable for evaluation

TDepartment of Rail Transport Final Report 2-116 Table 2.3.3-4 Comparison of the demPolicy measurements proposed in M-MAP2 Blueprint New e-BUM Railway-Focused Alleviation of in-train congestion in the city center area ☓ ✓ Strengthening of an overall railway network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region ? ✓ Enhancement of accessibility to the station ? ✓ Providing value-added mass transit service to promote public transport ( ITS, universal design) － － Fare policy Distance-based ? ✓ Zone-based ? ✓ Flat fare ? ✓ Additional charge at designate section ? ✓ Discount for transfer between lines ? ✓

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) mand forecast model by M-MAP2 policy ABM-RailwayFocused Comment ✓ Since the congestion ratio is not included in the current model as a variable, the alleviation of train car congestion is not evaluated directly. However, by assuming the peak rate, the congestion ratio can be calculated by dividing the number of passengers into the capacity. Using this in with case and without case, alleviation of congestion can be analyzed. ✓ If the level of service of the new route is set, the new route demand can be evaluated. ✓ If the access time is set and included in the model as a variable, this can be evaluated. － This is not subject to demand forecast ✓ Fare is included in the model as variable, so this can be evaluated if the fare is set. ✓ Can be evaluated if the transit line is recorded in the way that it allows the zonal price setting. ✓ If the fare table is set, this can be evaluated. ✓ Can be evaluated if the transit line is recorded in the way that it allows the zonal price setting. ✓ If the transfer rules are set, then it could be evaluated.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Policy measurements proposed in M-MAP2 Blueprint New e-BUM Railway-Focused Train operation Business-class train car ☓ ✓ Express train ☓ ✓ Increase the number of frequencies ☓ ✓ Modal shift Measure Promotion measure as Initial action Providing a smart image of public transportation － － Off-peak commuting promotion ☓ ☓ Promotion measures for mid-to-long-term Promotion as an Eco-Friendly transport mode Ex. certificate of eco-friendly office － － Educational program at school － － Providing commuting allowance to use public transport for commuting ✓ ✓ Dynamic pricing with IC card Ex. higher fare for a reserved seat during peak hour, lower price ☓ ☓

Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-117 ABM-RailwayFocused Comment ✓ There is a possibility to conduct the SP survey in order to evaluate the effect, but there are several technical issues to evaluate it accurately. ✓ Existing demand forecast system can evaluate if the express train is set ✓ Waiting time is included in the model as a variable so this can be evaluated if the number of frequencies is set. － This is not subject to demand forecast ✓ The structure of the demand forecasting model needs to be changed to evaluated hourly demand. Furthermore, an interview survey for enterprise and commuter is also required to understand their willingness to shift the commuting time. － This is not subject to demand forecast － This is not subject to demand forecast ✓ Fare is included in the model as a variable, this can be evaluated if the fare is set. ✓ The structure of the demand forecasting model needs to be changed to evaluated hourly demand. Furthermore, an

TDepartment of Rail Transport Final Report 2-118 Policy measurements proposed in M-MAP2 Blueprint New e-BUM Railway-Focused for non-congested time or weekend, different fare setting by direction (outbound-inbound difference)) Promotion as a secured transport mode Ex. kids watch-over services － － Restrict Measure for long term Road Pricing ? (time-dynamic pricing is not supported) ? (time-dynamic pricing is not supported) Car-free area ✓ ✓ Car-free time/day ☓ ☓ Tax on car ownership ☓ ☓ Tollway charge ? (time-dynamic pricing is not supported) ? (time-dynamic pricing is not supported) Parking control (Charge) ? (time-dynamic pricing is not supported) ? (time-dynamic pricing is not supported) Source: M-MAP2Blueprint, JICA 2019

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) ABM-RailwayFocused Comment interview survey for enterprise and commuter is alsorequired to understand which fare and duration they are going to choose and model will be calibrated based on the result. － This is not subject to demand forecast ✓ Fare is included in the model as a variable, this can be evaluated if the fare is set. ✓ Setting the route as a car-free area, this can be evaluated. ✓ To evaluate Car Free, hourly demand forecast mode is required. To evaluate the restriction of specific types of car, model restructures might be needed to reflect the type of restriction. ☓ The model does not consider the tax on car ownership, so this cannot be evaluated. The model needs to be restructured.ง ✓ Fare is included in the model as a variable, this can be evaluated if the fare is set. ✓ The model does not consider the parking fee, so this cannot be evaluated. The model needs to be restructured so that the parking sub model or the parking cost can be incorporated in the Generalized Cost function.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-119 2.3.3.9 Traffic Survey Related Demand Forecast of M-MAP2Blueprint The survey conducted in the M-MAP2Blueprint project is divided into three sections: (1) destination travel survey; (Destination-based Survey), (2) Mobile Application Survey and (3) Screen Line Survey, details as follows. 1) Destination-based Survey Purpose of the Survey In order to relieve the traffic congestion and encourage modal shift from automobile to mass transit, the development of mass transit network in Bangkok was developed as M- MAP in 2010. However, there is an issue that people do not shift from car to railway in Bangkok Metropolitan Region. Apparently, there is no data which can analyze this factor. Therefore, Interview survey at destination was designed to obtain not only the daily trip mode and route information, but also alternative trip mode and route to verify the modal shift behavior of commuters in Bangkok. Survey Method To make an interview with worker in CBD (Central Business District) efficiently, the survey was conducted in front of the office or inside the office located in CBD, by giving answers to travel surveys. The targeted sample groups are both private car users and mass transit users. 2,760 samples were collected and survey location and number of samples distributed at each survey location are shown in Figure 2.3.3-5 and Table 2.3.3-5 Source: M-MAP2Blueprint, JICA 2019 Figure 2.3.3-5 Survey Location for Roadside Interview

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-120 Table 2.3.3-5 Number of Samples distributed by Survey Location No Survey locations at Office buildings near stations Sample No. D01 BTS Asok/ MRT Sukhumvit 150 D02 BTS Nana 150 D03 BTS Phloen Chit 150 D04 BTS Chitlom 150 D05 BTS Siam 150 D06 BTS Phaya Thai / ARL Phaya Thai 150 D07 BTS Ari 150 D08 BTS Phorm Phong 150 D09 MRT Phetchaburi / ARL Makkasan 150 D10 MRT Rama IX 150 D11 MRT Thailand Cultural Center 150 D12 MRT Lumpini 150 D13 MRT Silom / BTS Saladaeng 150 D14 MRT Sam Yan 150 D15 BTS Chong Nonsi 150 No Survey locations at Government Institution Sample No. 1 SRT (State railway of Thailand) 70 2 BMA (Bangkok Metropolitan Administration) 70 3 MOT (Ministry of Transportation) 70 4 MRTA (Mass Rapid Transit Authority) 70 5 SRTET (SRT Electrified Train) 70 6 DPT (Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning) 70 7 DLT (Department of Land Transport) 70 8 BTSC (Bangkok Mass Transit System PCL) 20 Source: M-MAP2Blueprint, JICA 2019 Survey Items ▪ Attribution such as Gender, Age, Occupation, Education level, Number of household members, Household member, Home and office address, Type of accommodation, Personal and household income,Vehicle ownership, Availability of private vehicle etc. ▪ Daily commuting trip such as Travel mode, Transfer point, Trip purpose, Travel time, Travel distance, Travel cost, Departure time and etc. ▪ Alternative mode such as Number of alternative trips, Trip information, what kind of improvement should be Willingness of shift to alternative and etc.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-121 Source: M-MAP2Blueprint, JICA 2019 Figure 2.3.3-6 Survey Form of Destination-based Survey 2) Mobile Application Survey Purpose of The Survey The mobile application survey has been proposed by JICA study team as an alternative method to HIS (Household Interview Survey). Furthermore, application survey aims provide the data of trip characteristics during weekdays and weekends which is still lagging in HIS. Survey Method Survey process for surveys using the mobile application There are three important processes as follows: ▪ Participant recruitment and attribute information collection ▪ It is the process of recruiting people to join as users of the application to collect data for the survey. including collecting information about the user's properties by people who work and live in Bangkok Metropolitan Region, including name-surname, place of residence, work address, vehicle possession, income, etc., for user data for analysis. ▪ Staff and respondents training ▪ To enhance and maintain the survey result accuracy standard, training is required for both administrators and respondents. ▪ Monitoring during the survey