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The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-167 conducted to analyze the changing conditions. This will lead to assessment and forecasting of urban expansion, which the details, consultants have already shown in Section 2.1, Study toward direction of urban expansion. 2.4.2 Transportation network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region The consultant has collected information related to the transportation system, official statistical traffic-related data, bus routes, public passenger boat routes and road networks in Bangkok and its vicinity, both current and future action plans in order to improve the network model to be current and the network for the future. Which is divided into topics and details for collecting information as follows: 2.4.2.1 Data Collection The consultant has collected various information related to the transportation network in the study area, both the current network and the project to be built in the future by coordinating with relevant agencies, information from the government's open database system and stored as a Geographic Information System (GIS) database for analyzing and improving network models to be current and future networks. The information collected is as follows: 1) Bus routes include bus, affiliated bus, passenger van, and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) with current and future plans, road public transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region under the supervision of the Department of Land Transport, including: Bus, The Bangkok Mass Transit Authority (BMTA) supervises the Bus, which provides bus services to passengers living and working in Bangkok and five adjacent provinces, including Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Samut Prakan, Samut Sakhon and Nakhon Pathom. Organized service buses on 396 routes, totaling 8,914 vehicles (as of November 2020), divided into BMTA, 1,520 ordinary buses, 1,368 air-conditioned buses, 117 PBC (rental) buses. And there are private company that run the service with the BMTA, 444 ordinary buses, 162 air-conditioned buses, 457 minibuses, 1,936 minibuses in the alley, 2,836 air-conditioned passenger vans and CNG vans that connecting to Suvarnabhumi Airport 74 cars. Source: The Bangkok Mass Transit Authority, (http://www.bmta.co.th/th/services) Table 2.4.2-1 Vehicle Categories and Service Rate

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-168 Figure 2.4.2-1 Bus in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Bangkok BRT, The Sathorn-Ratchapruek line or the Chong Nonsi-Ratchapruek line is the only service route now available. It is a bus rapid transit system (BRT) that began service in 2010 and covers a total distance of 15.9 kilometers with 12 passenger stops, the route map is shown in Figure 2.4.2-2. Most of the traffic patterns have arranged separate lanes from the normal lanes on the same road in the same direction. Except on the bridge over the junction and the Rama 3 Bridge that operates in the mass transit lane (high-occupancy vehicle / HOV lane) with a car with 3 passengers or more, the fare rate is 15 baht throughout the line. Source: Mass Transit System Public Company Limited Figure 2.4.2-2 Route map of the expressway bus or BRT

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-169 ▪ Reforming bus routes in Bangkok Metropolitan Region by the Department of Land Transport Reforming bus routes in Bangkok Metropolitan Region by the Department of Land Transport, that it is a study to reform Thai buses. Enhance service efficiency and convenient and safe travel planning under the master plan for bus system development in Bangkok and its vicinities. There are 269 continuous routes in accordance with the Cabinet Resolution on September 27, 2016, which agreed to cancel the Cabinet Resolution on January 11, 1983 regarding the policy of operating buses in Bangkok. as proposed by the Ministry of Transport which, in addition to reforms in the field of governance that has specified the criteria for applying for permission to operate fixed route transport in one route, there can only be one operator and must act according to the notification of the Central Registrar in all aspects will reform the structure of the operation of the license to improve the condition of the vehicle The mechanism supports carriers and reforms the service route, including changing the line number. In order to determine the new car line number format to meet the needs of the people and there is a system for organizing the numberof car lines to be suitable for all dimensions. According to the original cabinet resolution in 1983, which stated that the BMTA was the only bus operator and the affiliated bus had to have a contract to join the bus service with the BMTA, but the cabinet resolution in September 2016 gave Department of Land Transport (DLT) is the Regulator, including defining a new route network, allocating bus routes according to the new network, set conditions for obtaining a license, selection of quality entrepreneurs, Requirements for drivers of public buses and the issuance of new transport operating permits by private affiliated bus, must apply for a license from the DLT, which has prepared a plan to reform the buses in Bangkok Metropolitan Region by which the plan is to clearly separate the regulator and operator (Operator) from each other, making the BMTA only one operator. According to reforming bus routes in Bangkok Metropolitan Region and provinces with continuous routes by defining 269 reformed routes. The Department of Land Transport has grouped the routes according to the information in the issuance of fixed route transport licenses with vehicles used to transport passengers in route category 1 in Bangkok and provinces with continuous routes. The Department of Land Transport has grouped the routes according to the information in the issuance of fixed route transport licenses with vehicles used to transport passengers in route category 1 in Bangkok and provinces with continuous routes divided into groups of bus operators. In the original route, 208 routes were compared with the reformed route 269, in which the 269 bus reform routes consisted of unchanged routes and the route that has changed the route of the bus or route number which in the future will gradually operate on the reform route to all routes in order to raise the quality of service and promote safety in all dimensions by emphasizing on facilitating bus users in Bangkok and provinces with continuous routes in all aspects, for example, the quality of the car with modern technology increases convenience and safety. By installing CCTV cameras, installing a GPS system for tracking vehicles and driving behavior 24 hours a day, the E-Ticket system is used to collect fares. Support for welfare cards. The car structure is designed in a manner that supports the elderly society, Universal Design, supports being an Intelligent System, can check the traffic through an application on a smartphone and extends the

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-170 development of intelligent bus stops. reduce route overlap and reduce travel time. covering thoroughly with urban development can connect with all modes of travel, including rail, water and air, able to support the expansion of the city and its population in the future. This will reduce traffic and pollution problems. Reduce the use of personal cars and change to use bus services more. ▪ Bangkok Mass Transit Authority (BMTA) Business Rehabilitation Plan (Revised Edition) Bangkok Mass Transit Authority (BMTA) Business Rehabilitation Plan (Revised Edition), that it is a rehabilitation plan of the BMTA due to insufficient funding from the government. Therefore, a review of the Cabinet resolution on April 9, 2013, which approved the BMTA purchases 3,183 natural gas (NGV) buses. cars to replace the old buses that Use diesel as fuel within the amount of 13,162.200 million baht, with the Ministry of Finance as a guarantor for the loan or providing a loan for the BMTA to borrow and let the BMTA be responsible for the repayment expenses, the loan principal, interest and other fees. In the loan, the Ministry of Transport shall take it to study the suitability and worthiness in case if there is any modification or addition to the purchase of a regular bus to be an air-conditioned vehicle. Including the arrangement of the route system Fare Adjustment Changing alternative energy technologies for buses taking into account the benefits that will occur to the service improving the quality of life for low-income passengers Incentives to use more public buses energy saving including reducing traffic problems and environmental pollution. Subsequently, the Cabinet resolution on 25 June 2019 approved the principles of the BMTA rehabilitation plan for the implementation of various strategies and guidelines. Under the rehabilitation plan of the said organization, the Ministry of Transport (MOT) and the BMTA will expedite the preparation of details and correct actions with the relevant laws, regulations and cabinet resolutions strictly and let MOT, BMTA and related agencies receive the opinions of the Ministry of Finance, Bureau of the Budget and the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council to proceed in the relevant section by procuring new buses as follows: 1) Purchased 489 NGV air-conditioned buses (all buses received on March 12, 2019) 2) Improve the condition of 323 NGV (original) vehicles 3) Purchase of 35 electric buses 4) Rent buses (7 years) amount 700 cars 5) Purchased 1,453 diesel-hybrid buses BMTA has revised the revised BMTA Business Rehabilitation Plan in accordance with the opinions of the Secretariat of the Cabinet and related agencies. by requesting to change the purchase of 35 electric buses (Electric Vehicle: EV), the purchase of 1,453 hybrid buses, the rental of 400 hybrid buses, and the leasing of natural gas (NGV) buses. 300 cars and the improvement of the condition of NGV buses (originally) 323

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-171 cars were rented 2,511 electric air-conditioned (EV) buses and hired a private sector to operate on the route of a private sector. (Electric buses (EV) or NGV buses) in the amount of 1,500 vehicles) Source: Rehabilitation Plan of Bangkok Mass Transit Authority (BMTA) (revised version), Office of Planning, Bangkok Mass Transit Authority (23 April 2020) Figure 2.4.2-3 The Bus purchasing schedule according to the BMTA rehabilitation plan BMTA has received a license to operate fixed-route transport with buses in category 1 routes in Bangkok and provinces with continuous routes, comprising 40 main routes, 15 secondary routes, 29 circular routes and 24 express routes shown below. Table 2.4.2-2 Routes according to the rehabilitation plan 108 routes Zone Route Number of cars main secondary circular express Total Average km. Minimum Maximum 1 6 0 2 8 16 26 408 489 2 13 1 1 1 16 23.3 309 370 3 3 0 1 7 11 27 259 310 4 3 4 4 1 12 18 244 293 5 3 2 4 4 13 26 347 416 6 6 1 5 1 13 26.7 325 392 7 5 3 4 2 14 22.6 320 384 8 1 4 8 0 13 12.8 288 346 Total 40 15 29 24 108 22.8 2,500 3,000 Source: Rehabilitation Plan of Bangkok Mass Transit Authority (BMTA) (revised version), Office of Planning, Bangkok Mass Transit Authority (23 April 2020) Currently, BMTA is reviewing the revised BMTA rehabilitation plan according to the opinions of the Cabinet Secretariat and related agencies for submission to the Cabinet for approval.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-172 2) Public passenger boat routes in Bangkok Metropolitan Region include passenger boats in the canal, Chao Phraya express boat, and ferry boats with current and future plans. The water public transport system in Bangkok Metropolitan Region, consisting of passenger boats in canals, passenger boats on the Chao Phraya River, passenger ships and ferries which currently has the following services: Khlong Saen Saep boat service, it is an express boat service in Khlong Saen Saep and Khlong Maha Nak there is a path between Wat Si Bun Rueang Pier in Bang Kapi District to Phan Fa Lilat Bridge Pier in Pom Prap Sattru Phai District. There are shipbuilding points at Pratunam Pier, a total of 28 ports, opened for the first time on October 1, 1990. The maritime route is approximately 18 kilometers long, the fare is 10-20 baht and the route map is shown in Figure 2.4.2-4. At present, Khlong Saen Saep canal boats can connect to other mass transit systems, such as the Blue Line at Asoke Pier and the Dark Green Line at Saphan Hua Chang Pier In the future, it can also connect to other electric trains, such as the Orange Line, yellow line train brown line train light red line and the Purple Line. Source: www.wikitravel.org Figure 2.4.2-4 Khlong Saen Saep Express Boat map Electric boat service in the Khlong Saen Saep, It is a public transportation system with electric power technology. Bangkok, together with the Harbor Department, has launched an electric passenger boat service in Khlong Saen Saep, an extension with 12 boats, can accommodate 40 passengers per boat, serving from the Wat Si Bun Rueang Pier - Min Buri District Office Pier, with a distance of 10.50 kilometers. The service is available on weekdays, 40 trips per day, from 5:30 AM to 8:30 PM, frequency every 15 minutes during rush hour and 30 minutes during other times for on public holidays will run around the frequency every 30 minutes (the frequency may be adjusted as appropriate) with a fare of 15 baht throughout the line.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-173 Khlong Phasi Charoen boat service, it is an express boat service in Khlong Phasi Charoen there is a path between Wat Pak Nam Phasi Charoen to Petchkasem Pier 69, a total distance of 11.5 kilometers, comprising 15 ports to reduce traffic congestion. Opened for the first time on April 1, 2016, operated by Krungthep Thanakom Company Limited, the fare rate is 15 baht throughout the line. The service for Monday through Friday, from 6:00 AM to 9:00 AM in the morning and 4:00 PM to 7:30 PM in the evening, (excluding holidays) every 15 minutes, every 30 minutes on Saturdays, Sundays, and holidays. Khlong Phadung Krung Kasem boat service, it is about 5 kilometers long, with 11 piers roaming through the inner Bangkok area on the Phra Nakhon side. Khlong Phadung Krung Kasem is connected to all public transport systems, including car-rail-boat, such as the MRT Blue Line at Hua Lamphong Station. Khlong Saen Saep boats converge around Bobae Market. Chao Phraya express boat and ferry crossing at Thewet Pier and buses along the route such as lines 171 (AC.), Line 49, Line 505 (AC.), Line 511 (AC.) and 53, etc. On Monday - Friday, there will be 14 trips a day (boats leave every 30 minutes) in the morning from Time 06:00 a.m. - 09:00 a.m. Evening round from 03:30 - 07:00 pm. On Holidays on Saturdays, Sundays and public holidays, there will be 12 trips a day (boats leave every 30 minutes). Morning round from 08:00 a.m. - 10:00 a.m., noon round from 12:00 p.m. - 1:00 p.m. Afternoon session from 3:00 p.m. - 4:30 p.m. Evening round from 06:00 p.m. - 07:00 p.m. Currently, the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) has plans to operate two additional boat lines, namely the Bangkok Yai Canal. and Bangkok Noi Canal and there is a plan to propose additional maritime routes in 7 potential canals with a total distance of more than 100 kilometers, namely (1) Khlong Om Non, a distance of 17.6 km; (2) Khlong Maha Sawat, a distance of 28 km; Distance 50.8 km. (4) Khlong Lat Phrao, distance 29.3 km. (5) Khlong Rangsit Prayoonsak, distance 56 km. (6) Khlong Prawet Burirom, distance 22.7 km. (7) Khlong Bang Lamphu, distance 1.5 km. Motorboats crossing the Chao Phraya River, it is a passenger ship in the area of Bangkok Metropolitan Region, there are 32 routes in service and the fare rate is 3-4 baht, and 5-10 baht in case of after 10:00 p.m. - 12:00 a.m. Figure 2.4.2-5 Motorboats crossing the Chao Phraya River

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-174 Chao Phraya Express Boat, it is a passenger boat on the Chao Phraya River. Service on the route Pak Kret District - Nonthaburi Pier - Sathorn - Wat Ratchasingkhon - Rat Burana by Chao Phraya Express Boat Company Limited, express boat service on the Chao Phraya River. Currently in service, the service routes are divided into 5 types, namely: (1) Fixed-day express boats (without flags) serving the Nonthaburi Pier - Ratchasingkhon Temple by stopping at every port of 34 ports, the fare rate is 9-13 baht. (2) Orange flag express boats. Serving the Nonthaburi-Sathorn-Ratburana pier by stopping at 21 piers, the fare is 15 baht. (3) Green flag express boats. Serving the route Pak Kret Pier - Nonthaburi Pier - Sathorn by stopping at 14 piers, the fare rate is 13-32 baht. (4) Yellow flag express boats. Serving the route Pak Kret Pier - Nonthaburi Pier - Sathorn by stopping for 10 piers, the fare is 20 baht, and (5) red flag air-conditioned express boats. Serving the Nonthaburi-Sathorn Pier route by focusing on pick-up and drop-off at 10 ports connected to the BTS SkyTrain, the fare rate is 30 baht. 3) Air Transport Network Suvarnabhumi Airport, as the main airport of Thailand, Suvarnabhumi Airport serves 102 airlines operating regular flights, 10 aircraft carriers and 1 charter airline. Domestic charter airlines fly to the airport. Koh Mai Si has 1 airline, a total of 114 airlines, capable of handling 76 flights per hour and 45 million passengers per year, and can handle 3 million tons of cargo per year. In addition to commuting by private car to Suvarnabhumi Airport. You can also take public transportation. The public buses will stop at the Bus Terminal, which will be used to collect passengers and transport them to the airport by shuttle buses. Figure 2.4.2-6 Suvarnabhumi Airport Don Mueang Airport, it is an airport that receives domestic and international flights (China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Cambodia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia, India, Maldives, Hong Kong, Philippines, Macau, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Australia, etc.).

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-175 Figure 2.4.2-7 Don Mueang Airport Suvarnabhumi Airport serves as a connecting point for travel. The Airport Rail Link (ARL) can be used to get into the heart of Bangkok. Phaya Thai Station is the last endpoint. There is also a plan to connect to Bang Sue Central Station in the future. This will be a crucial junction in the country's rail infrastructure. In the future, Suvarnabhumi Airport and Don Mueang Airport may be connected by a high-speed train to U-Tapao Airport. 4) Road network includes the current road system and future road system development plans. Expressway, It is a toll road. There is a control over the entrance and exit of the car. Under the responsibility of the Expressway Authority of Thailand. Currently, open for service, total distance 224.6 km. and in the future, the Bangkok Metropolitan Region will have more expressway networks, the details of which are shown in Table 2.4.2-3. Table 2.4.2-3 Current expressway project information and future development plans Project Distance (km) status Expressway project Chalerm Maha Nakhon Expressway (Expressway system 1st stage). 27.1 Already opened Si Rat Expressway (Expressway system 1st stage). 38.4 Already opened Chalong Rat Expressway (Including Ramintra - Outer Ring Road). 28.2 Already opened Burapha Withi Expressway (Bangna - Chonburi Expressway). 55.0 Already opened Udon Ratthaya Expressway (Bang Pa In - Pak Kret Expressway). 32.0 Already opened Expressway System Project, Stage 3, Southern Route, Section S1 (Bang Na - At Narong). 4.7 Already opened Bang Phli-Suksawat Expressway project. 22.5 Already opened Si Rat - Outer Ring Road Expressway. 16.7 Already opened Rama 3 - Dao Khanong - Western Bangkok Outer Ring Road Expressway Project. 18.7 pending tender Expressway System Project Stage 3, Northern Line, Section N2, connecting to the Eastern Bangkok Outer Ring Road and Substitute Section N1. 17.57 In the process of requesting approval for the project Chalong Rat Expressway - Nakhon Nayok - Saraburi Expressway project. 104.7 pending EIA consideration Expressway Elevated Level 2 (Double Deck) project. 24.2 In the master plan (2023 – 2027) Udon Ratthaya - Pathum Thani Expressway project. 20.5 In the master plan (2023 – 2027) Western Bangkok Outer Ring Road - Udon Ratthaya Expressway project. 13.8 In the master plan (2023 – 2027)

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-176 Project Distance (km) status Western Bangkok Outer Ring Road - Petchkasem Road Expressway project. 18.7 In the master plan (2028 – 2032) Rama 2 - Borommaratchachonnani Road Expressway project. 12.1 In the master plan (2028 – 2032) Borommaratchachonnani Road - Udon Ratthaya Expressway project. 41.5 In the master plan (2033 – 2037) Udon Ratthaya - Chalong Rat Expressway project. 28.3 In the master plan (2033 – 2037) Expressway Connecting Project Si Rat Expressway - Outer Ring Road connected motorway project to the Si Rat Expressway in the North (heading towards Chaengwattana). 0.37 Already opened Uttaraphimuk and the Si Rat Expressway Bangkok Outer Ring Road (Missing Link) Expressway Connecting Project. 2.2 EIA approved the Bangkok Port and the Bang Na - At Narong Expressway (S1) connecting project. 2 In the process of studying the suitability The project connecting the Burapha Withi Expressway and the Chonburi Bypass Road. 3.5 In the process of studying the suitability Bang Phli Expressway - Suk Sawat - Phra Samut Chedi Expressway Project. 0.58 In the master plan (2023 – 2027) Source: Expressway Authority of Thailand, 2021 Intercity Motorway, In which the construction has been completed and is open for service both in the part that the Department of Highways is responsible for the operation and maintenance itself and in the part that the private sector is responsible for the operation and maintenance under the supervision of the Department of Highways with a total distance of 281 km, under construction, a total distance of 317 km, and the details are shown in Table 2.4.2-4. Table 2.4.2-4 Current intercity motorway project information and future development plans Project Distance (km) Status Motorway No.7 Bangkok - Ban Chang. 181 Already opened Motorway No.9 Bangkok Outer Ring Road (Kanchanaphisek Road), Bang Pa-in - Bang Phli section and Phra Pradaeng - Bang Khae section, Phra Pradaeng section - Bang Khun Thian section. 79 Already opened Uttaraphimuk Elevated Tollway (Don Mueang Tollway Public Company Limited is a concessionaire until 2034). 21 Already opened Motorway No. 6, Bang Pa-In - Nakhon Ratchasima. 196 under construction Motorway No. 81, Bang Yai – Kanchanaburi. 96 under construction Motorway No. 82, Bang Khun Thian - Ban Phaeo. 25 under construction Motorway No. 9, Kanchanaphisek Ring Road. West side, Bang Khun Thian - Bang Bua Thong section. 38 in the 10-year plan Motorway No. 7, Elevated Tollway Srinakarin - Suvarnabhumi Airport. 18 in the 10-year plan Motorway No. 5, Uttaraphimuk Tollway Extension, Rangsit-Bang Pa-in Section. 22 in the 10-year plan Motorway No. 91, Third Outer Ring Road. 254 in the 20-year plan Motorway No. 62 Kanchanaphisek Road (East side) – Saraburi. 78 in the 20-year plan Motorway No. 71 Kanchanaphisek Road (East side) - Sa Kaeo (Aranyaprathet checkpoint). 204 in the 20-year plan Source: Department of Highways, 2021

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-177 Source: Department of Highways, (http://www.doh-motorway.com/master-plan/highway-network/) Figure 2.4.2-8 The intercity motorway network, 2017 - 2036 National Highway Network, Department of Highways: The road network development plans that are under the responsibility of the Department of Highways related to this study. The details are shown in Table 2.4.2-5.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-178 Table 2.4.2-5 The National Highway Network Development Plan of the Department of Highways Project Type Distance (km.) Status Renovation of Highway No.35 at Bang Khun Thian - Ekachai Interchange, Part 1. Increase traffic lane 3.5 under construction Renovation of Highway No.3 at Bang Pu - Amphoe Bang Pakong, part 1, part 2 and part 3. Increase traffic lane 17.15 under construction Construction of a frontage road of Bangkok Outer Ring Road (West side) Highway No.3901 on the left side, part 1. Construction of a frontage road 11.50 under construction Construction of a frontage road of Bangkok Outer Ring Road (West side) Highway No.3902 on the right side, part 1. Construction of a frontage road 11.50 under construction Construction of a service road outside of Motorway No. 9 (West side) Highway No.3901 on the left side, part 1 and part 2. Construction of a frontage road 11.312 under construction Construction of a service road outside of Motorway No. 9 (West side) Highway No.3902 on the right side, part 1 and part 2. Construction of a frontage road 11.312 under construction Renovation of the Interchange of Highway No.305 intersects with Highway No.352. Interchange - under construction Renovation of Highway No.3 Ban Bangpoo Mai – Ban Bangpoo. Increase traffic lane 6.94 under construction U-turn overpass on Highway No.34 at Bang Bo (inbound and outbound). U-turn overpass - under construction Construction of a frontage road Highway No.340 Bang Bua Thong Intersection - Khlong Chek. Construction of a frontage road 6.80 under construction Construction of the Interchange of Highway No.35 Ban Phaeo. Interchange - under construction Renovation of the Interchange of Highway No. 1 and Highway No. 31 (Lad Phrao Interchange). Interchange - Currently in the preparation phase for construction. Construction of a U-turn overpass, Highway No. 34, inbound and outbound (Khlong Hom Sin). U-turn overpass - Currently in the preparation phase for construction. Intersection Highway No. 9 (Ban Bang Toei) – confluence Highway No. 3214 (Ban Prao). New Route of Highway 9.36 10-year plan The junction of the Interchange of Highway No. 34 and Rural Road No. Sor Por 2001 (Wat Si Waree Noi Intersection). Interchange - 10-year plan Overpass of Highway No. 3 and Highway No. 3256 (Tamru intersection). Interchange - 10-year plan The Chao Phraya River Bridge on the left on the outside service of Highway No. 9, Bangkok Outer Ring Road (West side) Highway No. 3901. The Chao Phraya River Bridge - 10-year plan The Chao Phraya River Bridge on the right on the outside service of Highway No. 9, Bangkok Outer Ring Road (West side) Highway No. 3902. The Chao Phraya River Bridge - 10-year plan

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-179 Project Type Distance (km.) Status Renovation of the frontage road of Highway No. 34 Khlong Hom Sin. Increase traffic lane 2 10-year plan The Interchange of the Highway No. 3268, intersects with SorPor.1006 (Mueang Mai Bang Phli Housing Intersection). Interchange - 10-year plan U-turn overpass on Highway No. 35 in the area of Ban Na Khok. U-turn overpass - 10-year plan Construction of the frontage road, Highway No. 345, Bang Bua Thong Intersection - Bang Khu Wat Intersection. Construction of a frontage road 10.2 10-year plan Improvement of Highway No. 3312, Lam Luk Ka -Khlong 16. Increase traffic lane 15.709 10-year plan Renovation of the interchange at the intersection of Highway No. 34 and Sor Por.1006. Interchange - 10-year plan Construction of a frontage road, Highway No. 34, Bang Chalong - Bang Pakong. Construction of a frontage road 24.81 10-year plan Pathum Thani - Western Ring Road (Pathum Thani Bridge 3). New Route of Highway 20 10-year plan New highway, connecting the intersection of the Eastern Ring Road – Highway No.352. New Route of Highway 15 10-year plan Construction of a frontage road, Highway No.35, Rama 2 Road, section Wang Nam Won - Ban Na Khok. Construction of a frontage road 14.57 20-year plan Improve the junction at the intersection of Highway No.3312 and Highway No.3592 (Lam Luk Ka Rd. Intersection, Nimitmai Rd.). Interchange - 20-year plan Renovation of Highway No.3117 Khlong Dan - Bang Bo. Increase traffic lane 7.822 20-year plan Source: Department of Highways, 2023 Rural Roads Network, The road network development plans that are under the responsibility of the Department of Rural Roads (DRR) related to this study. The details are shown in Table 2.4.2-6. Table 2.4.2-6 The Rural Road Network Development Plan Project Distance (km) Pathum Thani No.3004 Rural Road, Intersection Highway No.305 – Ban Lam Luk Ka , Thanyaburi District, Lam Luk Ka, Pathum Thani. 10.41 Rural Road No ข1 Samut Prakan City Plan, Samut Prakan. 1.92 Samut Prakan No.4002 Rural Road, Intersection Highway No.3344 – Bang Phli Yai , Samut Prakan. 8.19 Intersection Highway No.34 (km. 26) Connecting to the Chachoengsao No.3001 Rural Road (Part 2), Samut Prakan. 4.86 The connecting road connects Ruam Phatthana Road – Highway No. 34, Samut Prakan . 19.36 Samut Prakan No.1006 Rural Road, Intersection Highway No.3 - Bang Phli Housing, Bang Bo District - Bang Sao Thong District, Samut Prakan. 9.26 The road connecting the Mahajesada Bodintranusorn Bridge, Nonthaburi Province. 4.40 The connecting road connects Nakhon In Road – Salaya (Nonthaburi-Nakhon Pathom). 11.00 The Chao Phraya River Bridge, Samut Prakan Bridge, Phra Samut Chedi District, Samut Prakan. 57 The Chao Phraya River Bridge, Sanambin Nam Bridge, Pak Kret District, Nonthaburi. - Connecting Road, Kanlapaphruek Road - Phutthasakorn Road, Samut Sakhon Province. 13.24

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-180 Project Distance (km) Connecting Road, Kanchanaphisek Road - Phutthamonthon Sai 3 Road, Nonthaburi - Nakhon Pathom. 9 Connecting Road, King Kaew Road - Rattanakosin 200 Years Road, Samut Prakan. 16.62 Connecting Road, Highway No.3268 (Thepharak Road) – Highway No.34 (Bang Na - Trad Road), Bang Phli District, Samut Prakan. 4 Thepparat road - Theparat (A9), Bang Phli District, Samut Prakan. 16.53 The road connecting IMS (S) - Wat Sri Waree Noi Road, Bang Phli District, Samut Prakan. 8.14 Major road networks of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, the road network development plans that are under the responsibility of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) related to this study. The details are shown in Table 2.4.2-7. Table 2.4.2-7 The Major road networks development plans of BMA Project Status Construction of a road along Khlong Bang Khen Road connecting Vibhavadi Rangsit Road and Phahon Yothin Road. Already opened Construction and improvement road on Thoet Rachan Road Sta.2+935 to Chert Wutthakat Road. Under construction Construction of an overpass the intersection at Ranong. Already opened The underpass construction project on Charansanitwong Road and Prannok Road. Already opened Arun Amarin Bridge Expansion Project with up-down and elevated roads across Siriraj Intersection. Already opened Connecting Kanchanaphisek Road - Phutthamonthon Sai 2 Road Project. Under construction Construction project to expand the traffic surface of Sutthawat Road and the bridge over Charansanitwong Road. Already opened Underpass construction project Ratchada – Ratchapruek. Under construction Construction and improvement project on Sala Thammasop Road, from Phutthamonthon Sai 2 Road to Thawi Watthana Road. Already opened Samae Dam Road Improvement Project, from Rama II Road to Khlong Sanam Chai. Already opened Elevated Road Construction Project on On Nut - Lat Krabang Road. Under construction Local highway project connecting Vibhavadi Rangsit Road and Phaholyothin Road, Phase 1 from Vibhavadi Rangsit Road to the bridge over Lat Phrao Canal. Under construction Local highway project connecting Vibhavadi Rangsit Road and Phaholyothin Road, Phase 2 from the bridge over Lat Phrao Canal to Phaholyothin Road. Under construction Construction and improvement project on Maitri Chit Road, from Soi Maitri Chit 38 to Khlong Kao Road. In the process of preparing the tender / preparing for construction Project connecting Phutthamonthon Sai 2 Road - Phutthamonthon Sai 3 Road. Under construction Road construction project connecting the Government Complex Commemorating His Majesty the King’s 80th Birthday Anniversary, 5th December, B.E. 2550 with Prachachuen Road (Road No. 10). Under construction Construction and improvement of Ramkhamhaeng 24 Road and Hua Mak Road. Under construction

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-181 Project Status The Chao Phraya River Bridge at Kiakkai Intersection, Phase 2, construction of a bridge across the Chao Phraya River including the up-down. Under construction The Chao Phraya River Bridge at Kiakkai Intersection, Phase 3, construction of elevated highways and roads on the Phra Nakhon side, from the Chao Phraya River to the Saphan Daeng Intersection. Under construction Construction and improvement of the overpass at Bang Kapi Intersection (Lad Phrao -Serithai Bridge). Under construction Construction of the overpass at the intersection of Petchkasem Road and Phutthamonthon Sai 2 Road. Request for budget year 2022 (Not allocated budget) Construction of the overpass at the intersection of Petchkasem Road and Phutthamonthon Sai 3 Road. Construction of an elevated road connecting Mitmaitri Road - Vibhavadi Rangsit Road. Road construction project connecting Rattanakosin Sompoch Road - Nimitmai Road, phase 1 from Theparak Road to the Eastern Outer Ring Road. Project connecting Phutthamonthon Sai 3 Road - Phutthamonthon Sai 4 Road. Construction of a bridge across the Phasi Charoen Canal, Soi Petchkasem 81 - Bang Bon 5 Road. Construction and improvement Surao Khlong Nueng road project from Phraya Suren Road to Hathai Rat Road. Connecting Mitmaitri 2 Road and Pracha Songkhro Road project. Ramkhamhaeng Road Construction Project, phase 1, construction of an elevated road from Lam Sali Intersection to Khlong Ban Ma. Ramkhamhaeng Road Construction Project, phase 2, construction and improvement of Ramkhamhaeng Road from Khlong Ban Ma to Khlong Bang Chan. Ramkhamhaeng Road Construction Project, phase 3, construction of an interchange at Rat Phatthana Road. Construction of a bridge across the Khlong Phasi Charoen and expand Petchkasem Road 69 - Bang Bon 3 Road. The Chao Phraya River Bridge at Kiakkai Intersection, phase 1, construction of elevated highways and roads on Thonburi side. Road construction project connecting Rattanakosin Sompoch Road - Nimitmai Road, phase 2 from the Eastern Outer Ring Road to Nimitmai Road. Request for budget year 2022 (Not allocated budget) The Chao Phraya River Bridge at Kiakkai Intersection, phase 4, construction of elevated highways and roads from Saphan Daeng Intersection to Kamphaeng Phet Intersection. The Chao Phraya River Bridge at Kiakkai Intersection, phase 5, construction of elevated highways and roads on the Phra Nakhon side, from Kamphaeng Phet Road to Phahon Yothin Road. Construction of a bridge over the Khlong Saen Saep connecting Soi Serithai 24 and Soi Ramkhamhaeng 131. Construction of a bridge over the Khlong Saen Saep connecting Soi Sukhumvit 31 and Soi Meesuk. Road expansion project connecting Prachachuen Road with Klong Prem Prachakon Road (City plan ข26 Road). Project connecting Vibhavadi Rangsit Road - Phaholyothin Road - Kamphaeng Phet 4. Si Ayutthaya Road - Rama VI Road Underpass Construction Project. 5-year plan Project for the construction of a Thanon Liap Khlong Prapa phase 1. Construction of Soi Weluwanaram 36 Road Project. The Chao Phraya River Bridge at Ratchawong Road - Tha Din Daeng Road. Project connecting Vibhavadi Rangsit Road with Kanchanakom Road.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-182 Project Status Road construction project connecting Lat Pla Khao Road with Soi Mailap to Pradit Manutham Road. Construction of the overpass at the intersection of Petchkasem Road - Bang Khae Road (Sukhaphiban 1 Road). Construction of the overpass at the intersection of Thawi Watthana Road and Soi Petchkasem 69 - Petchkasem Road. Construction of the overpass at the intersection of Petchkasem Road - Ma Charoen Road (Soi Petchkasem 81). Project for the construction of a Thanon Liap Khlong Prapa east side, phase 2. Project connecting Pracha Songkhro Road with Ratchadaphisek Road. Road construction project along the city plan, ข.33 route, connecting Soi Ramkhamphaeng 118 with Srinakarin-Romklao Road. Road project around Bangkok City Hall 2 Din Daeng. Construction of the overpass at Wongsakorn Market Intersection , Chalermpong Road Intersection and the intersection of Soi Sai Mai 39. Construction project to improve Sakuldee Road from Prachasamran Road to Phadungphan Road Khlong Sip Si area. Pedestrian bridge, bike path Crossing the Chao Phraya River at Tha Phrachan - Tha Siriraj. 20-year plan U-turn road construction project under the bridge over the Khlong Saen Saep, Suwinthawong Road. Road construction project according to city plan ค.1 connecting Ramintra Road to Phahonyothin - Rattanakosin Sompoch Road. Project connecting Ramkhamhaeng Road - Rat Uthit Road. Project connecting Romklao Road - Nimitmai Road. Road construction project according to city plan ค.3 connecting Ramintra Road to Bangna-Trad Road. Road construction project according to city plan ช.3, from Kaset - Nawamin Road to Bangna - Bang Pakong Road. 20-year plan Project connecting Pracha Songkhro Road with Makkasan Through the road of Bangkok City Air Terminal (BCAT) into Soi Nana. The project connects the bridge over the Din Daeng Intersection, north-south line, from Vibhavadi Rangsit Road through the road along the under expressway with Soi Petchburi 31 (Chidlom). Asoke Montri Road Expansion Project. Elevated highway Project on Ratchadaphisek Road - Asoke Din Daeng Road - Asoke Montri Road. Road construction project connecting Nimit Mai Road - Khu Klong Sip Road. Road construction project connecting Liab Waree Road, Suwinthawong Road and Khum Klao Road. Construction of the overpass at intersection of Chao Khun Thahan Road - Khum Klao Road. Road construction project connecting Lat Krabang Road - Khum Klao Road. Road construction project connecting Chao Khun Thahan Road - Chumthong - Lam Toi Ting Road. Road construction project connecting Chao Khun Thahan Road - Luang Phaeng Road. Road construction project connecting Sariputra Road - Luang Phaeng Road. Road construction project connecting Luang Phaeng Road - Thap Yao Road. Road construction project connecting Khum Klao Road - Liap Khlong Mon Road Local highway construction project connecting Petchkasem Road - Nong Yai Road -Kanlapaphruek Road.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 2-183 Project Status Pracha Songkhro Road Improvement and Expansion Project. The Chao Phraya River Bridge, Lat Ya - Maha Phruttharam. The Chao Phraya River Bridge, Chan Road - Charoen Nakhon Road. Road construction project connecting Suksawat Road - Rama 2 Road - Petchkasem Road - Southern Outer Ring Road. Road construction project connecting Chaloem Phrakiat Rama 9 Road and Bangkok-Chonburi Road (Motorway) and Krungthep Kreetha Road. Project to connect Prannok Road - Phutthamonthon Sai 6 Road with Rama 8 Bridge. Samsen Road and Pracharat Sai 1 Road Expansion Project from Nakhon Chaisi Road to Wong Sawang Road. frontage road construction project on Samsen Road from Amnuay Songkhram Road to Pracharat Sai 2 Road. Road construction project connecting Prachachuen Road and Rama VI Road Construction of the overpass at intersection of Ratchadapisek - Thiam Ruammit Road. Construction of the overpass at intersection of Pradit Manutham Road. Construction of the overpass at intersection of Kanchanaphisek frontage Road - Pracha Uthit Road. Construction of the Interchange at Charansanitwong Road - Kanchanaphisek Road and Ratchaphruek Road. Elevated Road Construction Project on Phutthamonthon Sai 3 Road connecting Nonthaburi Province. Construction of a bridge across the Khlong Phasi Charoen on Bang Bon 4 Road. The Chao Phraya River Bridge, Rama 2 Road. Source: Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, 2023 The Chao Phraya River Bridge, Currently, Bangkok and Metropolitan Region have 23 bridges across the Chao Phraya River and 11 additional projects are proposed according to the Chao Phraya River Bridge Master Plan. Details are shown in Table 2.4.2-8 Table 2.4.2-8 Chao Phraya River Bridge Master Plan Project Responsible agency Status Kiakkai Bridge BMA Under construction Ratchawong - Tha Din Daeng Bridge BMA Preparing for construction Lat Ya - Maha Phruttharam Bridge BMA In Master Plan Chan - Charoen Nakhon Bridge BMA In Master Plan Sanambin Nam Bridge DRR Currently in the process of submitting the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) to the relevant authorities. Samut Prakan Bridge DRR In Master Plan Sam Khok Bridge DOH In Master Plan Tha Nam Non Bridge Additional In Master Plan Pathum Thani 3 Bridge DOH In Master Plan Rama 2 Bridge Additional In Master Plan Bang Kachao Bridge Additional In Master Plan *Note: BMA = Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, DOH = Department of Highways, DRR = Department of Rural Roads Source: Consultant, 2023

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 2-184 2.4.2.2 Data analysis After gathering data, the consultant conducted an analysis of the route of serviceand the dimensions of urban planning (Urban conditions) by considering the service route and the trend of urban area expansion. To analyze the conformity of transportation and land use, and suggest further development of the network. The action plan can be shown in Figure 2.4.2-9. Figure 2.4.2-9 Plan to conduct an analysis of urban planning studies

Study and collect data of Transport and Traffic Models and Impact of the COID-19 Epidemic 03

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-1 Study and collect data of Transport and Traffic Models (TOR 3.1) and Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic. 3.1. Study, Review and Comparison of Transport and Traffic Models (TOR 3.1.3) 3.1.1 Traffic and transport model in Thailand 3.1.1.1 The extended Bangkok Urban Model (eBUM) by Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning Developments in the transportation and traffic sectors of organizations or agencies necessitate the improvement and maintenance of models in order to reflect their appropriate and efficient application in the evaluation of transportation policies and projects, as well as provide a model that follows the standard. The consultant has studied and reviewed the Strategic Model developed by OTP as a Base Model, namely: The national model of transport and traffic (NAM) and Extended Bangkok Urban Model (eBUM) The NAM and eBUM models are instruments for analyzing and forecasting transportation and traffic situations in the studied area when the transportation network changes. Alternatively, it can be used to evaluate traffic management measures based on suggestions from the relevant agencies. The NAM model is made up of basic data from the eBUM model with varied resolutions in terms of highway and public transportation networks, socio-economic data, traffic zones, traffic volume data, and etc. The implementation of the model requires a clear understanding of what level of space it will be used for. What level of resolution of results is required? And another important thing is to keep the baseline of the model up to date. This requires further survey and gathering of information. To use the collected data to calibrate and validate the model. The type of data to be surveyed depends on the nature of the work to be applied to make the model results more accurate. The eBUM review summarized and compiled details from the Improvement Study Report. Maintain database system information and models to integrate the development of transport and traffic Multimodal Transport and Logistics (TDL, 2015) of the OTP, which are detailed in the following sections. Improvement and maintenance work on eBUM to create a database system has been ongoing from the project TDL Phase 1 (2011) , in which the latest improvement and maintenance of the model has been developed. The model was expanded to include the other two bordering provinces, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya and Chachoengsao, for a total of 8 provinces that needed to divide the traffic zone from 1,657 to 1,771 sub-areas. Improving the model, in addition to subsections and expanding the scope of the model, transport and traffic data from 2012-2013 were surveyed to improve travel data and used in the 2012 and 2013 base year model calibration process. By surveying traffic volume and average number of passengers on each type of vehicle along the Screen Line, 2 lines in the north-south line and east-west lines. Additional Home Interview Survey (HIS) and data surveys to improve model parameters such as the PCU Factor of different vehicle types, Speed Flow Curve

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-2 based on the physical characteristics of different road types. For the Mode Choice Model and the improvement of the Value of Time (VOT) and Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) etc., together with economic-social information The Socio-Economic Planning Data for which the model was imported was used the 2010 census and housing data compiled by the National Statistical Office as a database to improve the model that reflects the population, number of households and real income, this will result in closer accurate model calibration results and can be used to forecast future transportation and traffic conditions. 1) Basic information (1) Study area of eBUM This project's eBUM model is a model that has been developed continuously starting from a study of the Traffic Modeling and Database System (UTDM) Development Project in 1995, which has been subdivided into 520 sub-areas and the study of various projects on the maintenance of database systems and traffic and transport models of the OTP (TDMC 1-6, TDML 1-2) until the TDL project in 2010-2011 with the study sub-area was divided into 1,657 sub-areas as shown in Figure 3.1.1-1. Figure 3.1.1-1 sub-areas of eBUM According to Figure 3.1.1-1, it covers the area of Bangkok and 5 provinces, namely Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Samut Prakan, Samut Sakhon and Nakhon Pathom. Subsequently, the TDL project has determined that the study area of the model will be improved to cover Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya (some area) and Chachoengsao (some area) provinces as well as improving the number of sub-areas to be suitable for the communication network. Therefore, additional subdivisions were made to cover Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya and Chachoengsao provinces, causing the eBUM model to increase the number of sub-areas to 1,771 as shown in Figure 3.1.1-2. The number of sub-areas in each province is shown in Table 3.1.1-1

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-3 Figure 3.1.1-2 Sub-area for Bangkok Metropolitan Region and two additional provinces Table 3.1.1-1 Number of sub-areas in each province in the eBUM model Province Sub-areas Bangkok 727 Nakhon Pathom 321 Nonthaburi 155 Pathum Thani 168 Samut Sakhon 115 Samut Prakan 148 Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya 40 Chachoengsao 74 outside area 23 Total 1771 (2) Census and Home Interview Survey (HIS) ▪ Census The National Statistical Office (NSO) conducted a survey and published the results of the 2010 Census. The Bangkok Metropolitan Region had a total population and households of approximately 14.6 million and 5.1 million households, respectively, which was more than the population and households of the eBUM model in the 2011 revised TDL project were approximately 3.8 million and 1.5 million households. respectively, as shown for comparison in Table 3.1.1-2. Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya Chachoengsao

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-4 Table 3.1.1-2 Population and household numbers in the eBUM model compared to the 2010 Census According tothe Table 3.1.1-2, the population and household numbers in the eBUM model database were 3.8 million and 1.5 million less than the population and household numbers from the same year census figures by 3 . 8 million and 1 . 5 million households of such databases. It has important implications for predicting traffic volumes in the traffic model at every step, especially in the earliest stages. This is the Trip Generation Model that is used to predict the total number of trips within the area (Internal Trips) of the population living in the study area. For that reason, therefore, it is imperative to update the planning data in the model to be accurate and consistent with reality. ▪ Home Interview Survey data (HIS) HIS data is critical in the process of developing, preparing and improving traffic and transport models at every stage of the model. It is like a travel census of people in the area. Projecting an overview of past travel behaviors and behavior modifications If analyzed against HIS data stored in the past. As this is important information, a process for both collection planning, sampling, and analysis of samples is required to be validated according to the standards from the Home Interview Survey (HIS) data collection review related to improvement work. and maintenance of transport and traffic models of the OTP. In the past, it was found that HIS data collection was carried out through various study projects as follows: - HIS in 1995 through the UTDM project - HIS in 2003 through the TDMC II project - HIS in 2009 through the TDML II project - HIS in 2013 through the TDL project Number of storage samples and HIS sampling rate to store past data. The summary is shown in Table 3.1.1-3, it can be seen from the table that the total number of households of HIS 2009 used as the base for the sample collection was more than double the number of households estimated from the Census data. Populations Households Populations Households Populations Households Bangkok 8,305 2,882 6,915 2,272 -1,390 -610 Nonthaburi 1,334 474 910 313 -424 -161 Samut Prakan 1,829 646 1,075 393 -754 -253 Pathum Thani 1,327 519 717 243 -610 -276 Samut Sakhon 887 328 430 146 -457 -182 Nakhon Pathom 944 286 790 244 -154 -42 Total 14,626 5,135 10,837 3,611 -3,789 -1,524 Province Census ('000) eBUM of TDL ('000) Difference ('000)

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-5 Table 3.1.1-3 HIS sampling rate 2) Travel demand forecasting model (1) Trip Generation Model It is the most important model for forecasting traffic and transportation. The results of the model will give the total traffic volume in the study zone in each traffic analysis zone, and the results obtained from the model will be used as inputs in the model in the following sequence. continually Therefore, if the Trip Generation Model is inaccurate or gives inaccurate results, it is reasonable. It will continue to have a significant impact as a chain in forecasting traffic or passengers in the transportation system in the study area. This will result in discrepancies in the analysis or preparation of different levels of transport traffic plans. The Trip Generation Model uses the same structure of the UTDM model that still appears in the eBUM model. The submodels consist of: ▪ Household Size Distribution Model: HHSD It is a sub-model for dividing the household market segment based on the average household size in each sub-area for forecasting the proportion of household size distribution (HH size) for use as input in the Trip Production Model. Comparative results from the 2010 Census data showed that the model gave the household distribution at the neighboring province level. This corresponds to the distribution of households in each province from the Census data. ▪ Household Vehicle Distribution Model: HHVD It is a sub-model that is used to divide the market segment of households by considering the average household income in each sub-area. The model provides a proportion of household vehicle occupancy rate distribution in each sub-area for use as input to the Trip Production Model. Comparative results from the 2000 Census data show that the model provides the distribution value. Household vehicle occupancy rate at the provincial level, nearby, consistent with the data Household vehicle possession distribution derived from Census data. Sample Households ('000) sampling rate (%) Sample Households ('000) sampling rate (%) Sample Households ('000) Households Census ('000) sampling rate (%) Sample Households ('000) sampling rate (%) Bangkok 3,971 2,037 0.19% 12,205 1,734 0.70% 1,085 584 2,768 0.19% 1,691 2,882 0.06% Nonthaburi 1,022 163 0.63% 1,629 232 0.70% 388 337 450 0.12% 252 474 0.05% Samut Prakan 1,459 242 0.60% 2,241 320 0.70% 386 364 614 0.11% 294 646 0.05% Pathum Thani 723 147 0.49% 1,382 197 0.70% 386 619 487 0.06% 240 519 0.05% Samut Sakhon 479 95 0.50% 960 137 0.70% 387 226 309 0.17% 118 328 0.04% Nakhon Pathom 225 172 0.13% 1,482 210 0.71% 386 165 279 0.23% 189 286 0.07% Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya - - - - - - - - - - 866 308 0.28% Chachoengsao - - - - - - - - - - 964 200 0.48% Total 7,879 2,856 0.28% 19,899 2,830 0.70% 3,018 2,295 4,907 0.06% 4,614 5,643 0.08% HIS 2013 (TDL) Province HIS 1995 (UTDM) HIS 2003 (TDMC II) HIS 2009 (TDML II)

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-6 ▪ Trip Production Model It is a sub-model that calculates the amount of travel incidence of each sub-area. Classified according to the main purpose of the trip as follows: - Homebased Work (HBW) – Traveling between residence and work place - Homebased Education (HBE) – Traveling between residence and school - Homebased Other (HBO) -Traveling between residence and other locations such as shopping malls, restaurants, etc. - Nonhome based (NHB) – Travel that does not involve residence The structure of the model is in the form of a Cross Classification model, which shows the trip rate relative to the variables about the purpose of the trip, the size of the household. The model scales HBO and NHB travel rate data with underreporting factors in order to provide the most reasonable proportion of overall objective travel. With this information is often recorded in lesser inquiries compared to routine HBW and HBE. Analysis results It was found that the population in Bangkok and its vicinities had an increase in the rate of travel that does not include traveling by foot (Mechanized Trip Rate) in 2011. Although not very high compared to the rate of increase in travel in the past, this may be due in part to the change in travel behavior according to changes and advances in communication technology today. Comparison of the trip generation rate after improvement with the trip generation rate of the UTDM project at the provincial level and the overall level, it can be seen that the rate of travel per person increased in almost all provinces, while the rate of travel per household decreased. This is consistent with the reality that the current household size in Bangkok and its vicinity has decreased compared to the household size in 1995. Table 3.1.1-4 Trip Rate for HBW purposes Household size no vehicle 1 car 2 cars more than 2 cars Motorcycle 1 0.97 1.36 1.40 1.40 1.37 2 1.60 1.96 2.30 2.30 2.12 3 1.79 2.09 2.80 2.80 2.34 4 2.04 2.34 3.10 3.10 2.54 5 2.60 2.84 3.46 3.46 3.47 6+ 2.60 2.84 4.24 4.24 3.47 Source: TDL Project Year 2015

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-7 Table 3.1.1-5 Trip Rate for HBE purposes Household size no vehicle 1 car 2 cars more than 2 cars Motorcycle 1 0.36 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.18 2 0.36 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.18 3 1.21 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.11 4 1.21 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.11 5 2.04 2.02 2.02 2.02 1.81 6+ 2.04 2.02 2.02 2.02 1.81 Source: TDL Project Year 2015 Table 3.1.1-6 Trip Rate for HBO purposes Household size no vehicle 1 car 2 cars more than 2 cars Motorcycle 1 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.69 0.45 2 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.69 0.45 3 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.76 0.45 4 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.76 0.45 5 0.63 0.79 0.83 0.83 0.46 6+ 0.63 0.79 0.83 0.83 0.46 Source: TDL Project Year 2015 Table 3.1.1-7 Trip Rate for HBE purposes Household size no vehicle 1 car 2 cars more than 2 cars Motorcycle 1 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.08 2 0.09 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.11 3 0.09 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.24 4 0.13 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.31 5 0.22 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.34 6+ 0.28 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.70 Source: TDL Project Year 2015 Table 3.1.1-8 Trip Rate in Bangkok Metropolitan Region of each project Project Trip rate (trip/person) BTS 1.15 UTDM 1.39 URMAP 1.49 TDL 1.52 Source: BTS: Bangkok Transportation Study, 1972 UTDM: Urban Transport Database and Model Development project, 1998 URMAP: Urban Rai Transportation Master Plan, 2000

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-8 Table 3.1.1-9 Trip Rate between UTDM and TDL project for each province According to Table 3.1.1-9, shows the comparison of the trip rate in the eBUM model of the TDL project with the trip rate in the UTDM project at the provincial and overall level. It can be seen that the rate of travel per person has increased in almost every province. while the rate of travel per household has decreased. This is consistent with the reality that households in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region have decreased in size today compared to the household size in 1995. ▪ Trip Attraction Model Trip Attraction Model is a sub-model used to calculate travel volumes into each subarea. The Trip Attraction Model uses the structure and correlation equations developed in the UTDM project and also appear in the eBUM model. 2011 TDL, due to lack of data to be used to improve such as the number and type of employment in each sub-area travel destination. The Trip Attraction Model is in the form of Linear Regression as follows: Aj = a1 + b1 x1 + b2 x2 + … + bn Xn Where; Aj = Trip Attraction of zone j X1-n = Variable such as Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Student, etc. a1, b1-n = Constants and Coefficients of Variables Table 3.1.1-10 Coefficient in the case of HBW purpose Variable HBW no vehicle motorcycle 1 car > 1 car Primary Employment 0.407 0.197 0.173 0.222 Secondary Employment 0.536 0.273 0.092 0.099 Tertiary Employment 0.323 0.178 0.282 0.217 Source: UTDM, 1995 Trip Rate per person (trip/person) Trip Rate per Household (trip/household) Trip Rate per person (trip/person) Trip Rate per Household (trip/household) Bangkok 1.54 5.98 1.65 4.72 Samut Prakan 1.35 4.34 1.42 3.97 Nonthaburi 1.45 5.88 1.42 3.97 Pathum Thani 1.34 5.15 1.38 3.48 Nakhon Pathom 0.75 6.05 1.12 3.66 Samut Sakhon 0.88 6.15 1.38 3.71 Total 1.39 5.60 1.52 4.30 Province UTDM TDL

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-9 Table 3.1.1-11 Coefficient in the case of HBE, HBO, NHB purpose Variable HBE HBO NHB Tertiary Employment - 1.261 0.791 School Places 1.936 - - Constant - 3620.0 960.2 Correlation 0.974 0.550 0.540 Source: UTDM, 1995 However, when compared to the Trip Production Model, the Trip Attraction Model may be less important to emphasize data integrity than the Trip Production Model, as data accuracy is more limited than the trip origin data obtained from the Trip Production Model. The Home Interview Survey (HIS) directly and ultimately Trip traffic in terms of Trip Attraction is adjusted to be equal to the total trip volume obtained from the Trip Production Model while maintaining the same travel volume distribution as calculated from the above equation. (2) Trip Distribution Model It is a model for distributing the total travel volumes in each sub-area calculated in the Trip Generation Model procedure. It is used in the analysis to distribute the travel traffic into each relative subarea pair. The model format is the Gravity Model according to the 2011 eBUM as follows: i j i i ij ij ij j ij ij i a * b * P * A * f(C ) * K T = A * f (C ) * K Where; Tij = The amount of travel between Zone i and j Pi = Travel volume generated by Zone i from the Trip Generation model. Aj = Travel volume generated by Zone j from the Trip Generation model. ai , bj = Row / Column Balancing Factors f (Cij) = Cost Deterrence Function (Friction Factor) of travel between Zone i and j kij = Adjustment Factor The important variable of the model is Friction Factor, where ai, and bj are variables in the process of adjusting the Balance Trip End (Production and Attraction) to equal or close to the Trip End value obtained from the Trip Generation Model, which will be adjusted in each cycle of the computation (Iteration) of the model. (3) Modal Split Model Currently, Bangkok and its vicinities have a large number of public transport development projects. whether high-speed train BTS and MRT extension Including some types of public transport that are currently available. With the rapid expansion of service routes and increasing numbers, such as passenger vans

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-10 and motorcycle taxis, etc., there is also an expansion of the rail service route from Bangkok to the perimeter according to plans for the development of rail transportation in the future. As a result, the structure of the transportation system of Bangkok and its vicinity has greatly changed from the past. As a result, people's travel behaviors have changed and become more complex. The travel style selection structure was used Multinomial Logit to examine the travel style selection behavior of the target group. The survey points were set to cover both Bangkok and suburban areas, totaling 16 points in order to obtain complete samples according to the desired travel patterns for each group as shown in Figure 3.1.1-3 Figure 3.1.1-3 Survey point area for travel mode selection data Information that influences the choice of travel style of the sample from the survey, such as the purpose of the trip, the length of the trip, income, the number of personal cars in possession, expenses travel, waiting time for service, time spent on board the vehicle, etc., will be used to analyze the choice of travel mode by type of vehicle occupancy classified by purpose of travel and take the results of the analysis, that have been used in the travel mode selection model. As an example of the analysis results shown in Table 3.1.1-12 and Table 3.1.1-13. Then, the results of the analysis were used to improve the travel pattern selection model as shown in Table 3.1.1-14. In defining the transport system in the model public transportation means traveling by public transport that has a fixed route has a point of origin – destination and has a clear distance/service schedule. While personal travel refers to a journey that has a fixed route, the origin and destination points of each journey are uncertain and the distance / time of travel varies according to the needs of each trip. In the improved/developed eBUM model in this project public transportation Covering various types of vehicles, including public buses (ordinary, air-conditioned and BMTA), vans BMTA, suburban

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-11 trains, mass transit (BTS, MRT, ARL), passenger boats. While Personal travel covers different types of vehicles, including private cars, motorcycle, taxi, etc. Table 3.1.1-12 Example of choosing a travel mode for those who do not have a vehicle - HBW

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-12 Table 3.1.1-13 Example of choosing a travel style for people who own > 1 vehicle (HBE) Table 3.1.1-14 Proportion of choosing different transportation systems

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-13 (4) Traffic Assignment Model The outcome of the choice of mode of travel will be in the form of itineraries of the main types of travel, categorized by household type and purpose of travel. These tables will be added together. In order to distribute daily commute on private vehicle and public transport networks. Vehicle travel distribution and daily travel distribution the procedure for voyage distribution is Multi Class Assignment, which consists of 5 types of travel patterns as follows: ▪ Motorcycle ▪ General cars ▪ Taxi ▪ Non-route buses (School bus or staff shuttle) ▪ truck In addition, the number of buses can be estimated from the public transport network file by which the number of buses will be preloaded onto the network. Before enumerating trips for other types of vehicles, the voyage distribution is based on the Equilibrium Assignment method. The results of the voyage distribution are shown in the Passenger Car Unit (PCU). Developing and improving the latest transport and traffic models under the Travel Demand Survey (TDS) in 2015, traffic analysis zone (TAZ) was divided into 1,885 sub-areas, covering Bangkok and its vicinities, including Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya and Chachoengsao with the red line train network to reach the details are shown in Table 3.1.1-15. Table 3.1.1-15 Sub-area designation details (TAZ) in the TDS project Province Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) TDL II 2013 TDS 2017 Bangkok 727 946 Nakhon Pathom 321 244 Nonthaburi 155 189 Pathum Thani 168 184 Samut Sakhon 115 70 Samut Prakan 148 147 Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya 40 49 Chachoengsao 74 38 outside area 23 18 Total 1771 1885

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-14 3.1.1.2 The model for forecasting the traffic volume of the Department of Rural Roads Forecasting traffic volumes in the future, in some projects of the Department of Rural Roads, A development model was developed according to the 4-Step model approach to be applied to the study area. Based on the platform (Platform) of the Cube program (Voyager) consists of various tasks, namely the application of travel modeling (Trip Generation) and the analysis of travel time between pairs of zones (Interzonal Travel Time Skim) for use in the trip distribution model (Doubly Constraint Gravity Model) and the application of the trip assignment model (Trip Assignment Model), details of the traffic forecast approach are as follows: (Department of Rural Roads, 2017) Project to study the feasibility of rural road networks to support cities It is a project with a model application. with the process of using a 4-step model, where the traffic and transportation conditions on the road network around the project area in the current year are studied to be used for predictive analysis of traffic volumes on project roads and nearby networks the results of the study can be used for the following benefits: ▪ To design physical characteristics and the selection of the route of the project road. ▪ To assess the traffic benefits from road construction projects. ▪ To assess the impact of traffic on the environment of the project roads. By the process of study, it consists of steps which start from collecting secondary data such as traffic data statistics and road network data, various traffic and transport surveys, analysis of current year traffic and transport conditions. Development of traffic and transport models and information on transportation projects (Road and highway projects) of government agencies initially that will be implemented in the future. The guidelines for the study of traffic and transportation for the project are shown Figure 3.1.1-4. Source: Adapted from Department of Rural Roads, 2017 Figure 3.1.1-4 Traffic and Transport model Guidelines

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-15 1) Data Collection and Analysis The study of traffic and transport consists of steps that begin with collecting secondary data, including traffic statistics and road network data. Survey of various traffic and transport data, analysis of traffic and transport conditions in the current year. Traffic and Transport Model Development and information on transportation projects (Road and highway projects) of government agencies initially that will be implemented in the future. 2) Traffic and transport surveys In addition to reviewing and collecting secondary data Additional traffic and transport data should be surveyed in the form of primary data to examine traffic conditions in the study area. and used as data for analysis and forecasting of traffic in the future. The traffic model will be applied in the project analysis. For the traffic data survey. Initially, the survey will be conducted as follows: - Mid-Block Classified Traffic Count; MB - Turning Movement Count; TMC - Travel Time Survey; TT - Origin – Destination Survey - Network Survey ▪ Mid-Block Classified Traffic Count It is a survey of the traffic volume on the road. by vehicle type and direction of travel. The objective of the survey of traffic volumes on the road block is to use it as information in calibration the current traffic and transport model. For the survey of traffic volume on the road, the survey will be captured by video camera and then extracted in the laboratory. The survey will be conducted between 6:00 AM and 6:00 PM for a total of 12 hours, and the traffic volume will be counted every 15 minutes. The route of the project to be studied This should be a point where the vehicle can be clearly seen. It is safe to explore the number of survey points depends on the survey budget and resources. ▪ Turning Movement Count Intersection traffic volume surveys will provide an idea of the proportion of travel in different directions occurring at that junction. This information can be used to analyze the direction of vehicles. to move Used to analyze the capacity of the junction. and used for the design of traffic lights. or for the junction to be developed into a lifting junction in the survey will count the amount of traffic by separating the direction of cars passing in each direction (Approach) during rush hour Outside of rush hour, 3hours per period by surveying on the same day as the Mid-Block Classified Counts different directions as it appears in real space conditions. ▪ Travel Time Survey The survey will be conducted in two time periods: the morning rush (07:00 AM to 10:00 AM) and the evening rush hour (3 PM to 6:00 PM). This survey is to provide information for adjusting the Speed

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-16 Flow Curve in the Traffic Assignment model to be appropriate for the behavior of motorists. physical characteristics of the road and the specifics of traffic conditions in the project area including as a supplementary information in the amendment. The speed survey will be conducted by using Floating Car Technique speed test vehicle or driving at the average speed of the traffic flow. ▪ Origin – Destination Survey The survey will interview commuters with a Road Side Interview or a parking area questionnaire. or gas station according to the appropriateness of the area the survey will be conducted in two time periods: the morning rush hour between 7:00 AM and 10:00 AM and the evening rush hour between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM. ▪ Network Survey This survey is to verify the accuracy of the current road network information gathered from various sources. The data in the network survey consists of number of lanes, width of the road surface, direction of the car, etc. 3) Analysis and forecasting of future traffic volumes (1) Forecasting future traffic volumes Forecasting future traffic volumes using traffic and transportation models, every 5 to 20 years after opening, the analysis takes into account historical traffic increases, population increase, travel is linked to the attraction of travel, network connection and the results of the survey of current traffic conditions. This is to improve the model database in both economic and social aspects. Traffic and transportation including various plans relevant to be up-to-date and appropriate. (2) The model used in the study A model used to analyze traffic and transportation forecasts. In the project to study the suitability of rural road networks to support border towns Developed according to the 4-Step model approach on the platform (Platform) of the Cube program (Voyager) as the modeling steps are shown in Figure 3.1.1-5. Trip Generation, Interzonal Travel Time Skim for use in the Doubly Constraint Gravity Model Trip Distribution Model and the Trip Assignment Model. Shown in the flow diagram in Figure 3.1.1-6.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-17 Figure 3.1.1-5 Development of transport and traffic models by Cube (Voyager) Source: Department of Rural Roads, 2017 Figure 3.1.1-6 Steps in Project Model (Cube Flow Diagram) various departments Development of transport and traffic models by Cube (Voyager) Gather information on the results of studies and the implementation of related projects. Model Data survey Field Traffic volume Data calibration Network Travel Time Origin – Destination Estimated travel demand /analyze traffic conditions (Study area)

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-18 (3) Model validation The model validation in the study verifies the values obtained from the model against those obtained from a field survey by calibrating the current year model. by distributing the amount of travel on the current year network and compare the traffic volume on the network with the traffic surveyed in the field or the amount of traffic collected from other units They must be similar at the same reference point to ensure reliable future traffic forecasts. By the tolerance Acceptable to calibrate the model is shown in Table 3.1.1-16. Table 3.1.1-16 discrepancy accepted for model calibration Road type % Discrepancy acceptable Expressway +/- 10 Major Arterial +/- 15 Minor Arterial +/- 25 Traffic volume (PCU/day) % Discrepancy acceptable 0 - 5,000 +/- 36 5,000 - 10,000 +/- 29 10,000 - 25,000 +/- 25 25,000 - 50,000 +/- 22 >50,000 +/- 21 Source: Travel Model Improvement Program, Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (1997) (4) Travel/Traffic demand Estimation Future traffic forecasting is an analysis of traffic conditions on future road networks, consisting of current road networks and approved agency projects using traffic and transport modeling to forecast volumes traffic will know the amount of traffic on the project highway network and will serve as the basis for evaluating the efficiency of the highway network. Due to the construction of the project roads according to different years, the forecast of future traffic conditions will be divided into 2 parts as follows: ▪ Future travel demand. The traffic and transport model will be used to estimate the overall demand for inter-area travel within the study area. including travel to and from and through the study area in future years ▪ Future traffic conditions. Traffic and transport models are used to predict future traffic conditions on the road network. The results of forecasting traffic conditions will consist of: - Traffic volume on the highway of the project and other highways in the project area - Travel speed on project highways and highways - Ratio of traffic volume to road capacity (v/c Ratio) on different highways - Traffic volume - kilometers (Vehicle-Kilometer) on various highway networks - Traffic volume-hours (Vehicle-Hours) on various highway networks

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-19 Traffic analysis zone (TAZ) was divided into 1,885 sub-areas, covering Bangkok and its vicinities, including Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya and Chachoengsao with the red line train network to reach the details are shown in Table 3.1.1-17. Table 3.1.1-17 Sub-area designation details (TAZ) in the TDS project Province Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) TDL II 2013 TDS 2017 Bangkok 727 946 Nakhon Pathom 321 244 Nonthaburi 155 189 Pathum Thani 168 184 Samut Sakhon 115 70 Samut Prakan 148 147 Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya 40 49 Chachoengsao 74 38 outside area 23 18 Total 1,771 1,885 3.1.1.3 The model for forecasting the traffic volume of the Department of Highways. Traffic and Transport Model Development to describe traffic and transportation conditions and applied the model for analysis. Forecasting traffic and transport in future years based on various forecasts of economic and social growth. related development plans as well as plans for the construction of road network improvements in the study area. The model and the results obtained will be compared and validated with the results of the previous study. Overview of approaches to the development of project traffic and transportation models as shown in Figure 3.1.1-7.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-20 Source: Adapted from Hat Yai Bypass Construction Project, Department of Highways Figure 3.1.1-7 Guidelines for developing and applying traffic modeling การรวบรวมข้อมูล ระบบโครงข่ายคมนาคม ขนส่งในพื้นที่ศึกษา การรวบข้อมูลด้าน เศรษฐกิจและสังคม และการจัดแบ่งพื้นที่ย่อย การส ารวจและรวบรวมข้อมูล ด้านการจราจรและ การเดินทางในปัจจุบัน แบบจ าลองด้านการจราจร เบื้องต้น ระบบโครงข่ายคมนาคม ขนส่งในปี ปัจจุบัน ตรวจสอบผลการพยากรณ์ จากแบบจ าลอง ระบบโครงข่ายคมนาคม ขนส่งในปี อนาคต แบบจ าลองด้านการจราจร ของโครงการ ข้อมูลด้านเศรษฐกิจ และสังคมในอนาคต สภาพจราจรบนระบบโครงข่าย คมนาคมขนส่งในปี อนาคต Current year Future year การวิเคราะห์ความต้อง การเดินทางในปัจจุบัน การรวบรวมข้อมูล ระบบโครงข่ายคมนาคม ขนส่งในพื้นที่ศึกษา การรวบข้อมูลด้าน เศรษฐกิจและสังคม และการจัดแบ่งพื้นที่ย่อย การส ารวจและรวบรวมข้อมูล ด้านการจราจรและ การเดินทางในปัจจุบัน แบบจ าลองด้านการจราจร เบื้องต้น ระบบโครงข่ายคมนาคม ขนส่งในปี ปัจจุบัน ตรวจสอบผลการพยากรณ์ จากแบบจ าลอง ระบบโครงข่ายคมนาคม ขนส่งในปี อนาคต แบบจ าลองด้านการจราจร ของโครงการ ข้อมูลด้านเศรษฐกิจ และสังคมในอนาคต สภาพจราจรบนระบบโครงข่าย คมนาคมขนส่งในปี อนาคต การวิเคราะห์ความต้อง การเดินทางในปัจจุบัน Collection of transport network information in the study area Socio-economic data collection and subdivision Traffic and travel surveys and data collection in the current year Preliminary modeling of traffic The current transport network system Check the forecast results from the model. Transportation network system in the future The traffic model of the project. Socio-economic data in future Traffic conditions on the transportation network in the future Unacceptable Travel demand analysis in current year Acceptable

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-21 3.1.2 Modeling of traffic and transportation abroad. 3.1.2.1 The Japan travels demand forecasting model Traffic forecast model used by Road Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. It is currently divided into two main parts, National Travel Demand Forecast for Passenger Transport and National Travel Demand Forecast for Freight Transport (Demand Forecasting for Road Transportation in Japan, Mori et al., 2011), as shown in Figure 3.1.2-1 and Figure 3.1.2-2 respectively. Source: Demand Forecasting for Road Transportation in Japan, Mori et al., 2011 Figure 3.1.2-1 National Travel Demand Forecast for Passenger Transport model in Japan

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-22 Source: Demand Forecasting for Road Transportation in Japan, Mori et al., 2011 Figure 3.1.2-2 National Travel Demand Forecast for Freight Transport model in Japan As for the Passenger Transport model, as shown in Figure 3.1.2-1, it can be seen that it starts with the Population and Vehicle Ownership data for each TAZs. This assumes one Prefecture means one zone to be used as input into the Trip Generation and Modal Split models. These two parts of the model are split into Zone Trips (Intra-prefecture Trips) and Inter-Zone Trips (Inter-prefecture Trips). The result of the Trip Generation and Modal Split models is the total travel demand, divided into trips for each mode of travel. The travel demand for a private car is then calculated as the number of trips for a private car (Vehicle-trips for Passenger Cars) and finally calculated as Vehicle-kilometers for Passenger Cars. As for the Freight Transport model, the main import data for the model is Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the quantity of each type of goods imported and produced within the country. The Freight Modal Split model is then used to estimate the weight of the goods being transported using different modes of transport. After that, the quantity of goods transported by road will be estimated as the quantity of goods transported by each type of truck and the number of trips, the demand for freight (Vehicle Trips for Freight Vehicles) and Vehicle-kilometers estimates for Freight Vehicles.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-23 3.1.2.2 The United States travel demand forecasting model According to data collected by consultants, the primary model used to forecast traffic volumes by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and the Department of Transport (DOTs) in each state today remains a four-step continuous model (4- step sequential demand models) The Guidebook on Statewide Travel Forecasting by FHWA (1999) and the Statewide Travel Forecasting Models Guide by the Transport Research Board (TRB) and FHWA (2006) propose guidelines. Development of a traffic forecast model as shown in Figure 3.1.2-3. Source: Guidebook on Statewide Travel Forecasting, FHWA (1999) Figure 3.1.2-3 A continuous 4-step model for predicting traffic volumes. For the four-step continuous model, the first step is to forecast trip generation, a model used to predict how demand will be transported to and from an area. After the amount of travel in and out of each zone is known, the amount of travel in and out of each zone is used as input for the trip distribution model to predict the amount of travel. between the different zones in what manner? Once the demand for travel between different areas is obtained, a modal split model is used to estimate the proportion of travel modes, e.g., by road, rail or bus, between the starting pairs. and various destination points in the final step It will forecast the route used for each mode of transportation. By using the travel distribution model (Traffic Assignment), in the implementation of such a model in practice may require additional steps, including: ▪ Calculation of travel time on each road. ▪ Calculation of utility loss (Disutility) from using a mode of transportation other than roads. ▪ Anticipating the occurrence of different types of activities. ▪ Travel origination model. ▪ Travel distribution model. ▪ Estimating the number of passengers in the vehicle. ▪ Daily forecast of travel time and direction of travel. ▪ Traffic Assignment model on the road network. ▪ Traffic Assignment model for non-road travel patterns. ▪ Average traffic volume

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-24 ▪ Road trip delay estimates. ▪ Looping data back to the beginning of the model. However, it is up to the Department of Highways to develop a model to forecast traffic or travel traffic in each state, so models to forecast traffic in each state may differ in some detail. Ohio's traffic volumes are shown in Figure 3.1.2-4, with additional simulation elements including the Land Development Model, Air Quality and Accident Model, and the Sub-area Traffic Simulation Model, among others. Figure 3.1.2-5 shows the California Statewide Long model. -distance Model, which has some elements that are different from the 4-step continuous model, namely the Accessibility Logsums Model. Source: Statewide Travel Forecasting Models by TRB and FHWA (2006) Figure 3.1.2-4 Ohio traffic forecast model

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-25 Source: Foundational Knowledge to Support a Long-Distance Passenger Travel Demand Modeling Framework, FHWA (2015) Figure 3.1.2-5 California Statewide Long-distance Model 3.1.2.3 The United Kingdom travel demand forecasting model Based on the data gathered by the consultants, the current primary model used to forecast UK travel traffic by the UK Department of Transport is the National Transport Model (NTM) (UK Department of Transport, 2018). The NTM model can be show in Figure 3.1.2-6. The NTM model is structured with elements built on the principle of the 4-step continuous model described above. Source: National Transport Model - Working Paper 1, UK Department of Transport (2018) Figure 3.1.2-6 National Transport Model (NTM) model structure

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-26 According to Figure 3.1.2-6, shows that the NTM model starts with the Trip-end Model and Car Ownership Model with two inputs: Demographic Data and Land Use Data, and Results. Outputs from the model in this section are: The total number of travel needs (trips), then the total number of travels demand and government policies that cause changes in the timing Travel costs from the Spend Impact Database, National Rail Model, and Forge Highway Capacity and Costs models are used as inputs for the Demand Model. Number of travels demands for each mode of travel the main modes of transportation are road and rail. The demand for road travel is brought into a distribution model, which makes it possible to know the travel demand between the point of origin and the destination in order to Enter the Highway Network Assignment Model and the result is the number of cars on the road project eventually. Figure 3.1.2-7 and Figure 3.1.2-8 show Traffic Analysis Zones and road networks in the UK National Transport Model. Source: NTMv2R: Demand Model Implementation, UK Department for Transport, 2018 Figure 3.1.2-7 Traffic Analysis Zones in the UK National Transport Model

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-27 Source: NTMv2R: Demand Model Implementation, UK Department for Transport, 2018 Figure 3.1.2-8 Road network in the UK National Transport Model

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-28 3.1.3 Rail Demand Forecasting Models in Foreign Countries 3.1.3.1 Rail Demand Forecasting Models in Japan Rail Demand Forecasting Models in Tokyo has been developed in 2016 and been used to evaluate the Tokyo Urban Rail Development Master Plan 2016 – 2030. The model covered the area of Tokyo and its vicinity for the radius of 50 kilometers with the number of populations around 34 million and transport demand around 80 million person trips/day. The model especially focused on 5 issues largely impact the planning of Tokyo Urban Rail Development Master Plan 2016 – 2030 as follows. ▪ The model explicitly considers the age of travelers as an important factor affecting their travel behaviors and choice of transport modes and routes. ▪ Act on Special Measures Concerning Urban Regeneration enacted in 2002 largely change the land use pattern in Tokyo and hugely impact the people’s travelling patterns. ▪ The model included the transport demand from two main airports around Tokyo, namely, Haneda and Narita and high-speed railway station around Tokyo. ▪ In the model, there was the consideration of in-vehicle rail crowding during peak periods which could affect the rail route choice behaviors. ▪ Finally, the rail demand model also considered access-egress from railway station which could affect the choices of railway station and routes. 3.1.3.2 Rail Demand Forecasting Models in the UK UK Department for Transport (DfT) and Transport for London’s (TfL’s) referred to The Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) as the guideline for conducting the rail demand forecast. PDFH was initially developed by British Rail then later transfer to Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC) after the privatization. The details of PDFH can be described as follows. ▪ PDFH included the exogenous factors and endogenous factors affecting the rail demand. The exogenous factors are the factors which cannot be controlled by rail operators, for example, GPD, number of populations, land use, fuel cost. In reverse, the endogenous factors can be controlled by the rail operators such as fair, service frequency, reliability of the services. ▪ PDFH used the historical data to build the relationship between these factors both exogenous and endogenous and rail demand in terms of elasticity.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-29 3.1.3.3 Rail Demand Forecasting Models in China The China Academy of Rails (CARs) under the Ministry of Rail (MOR), China has developed a Modal Demand (MD) Model to use to forecast passenger numbers for high speed railway (HSR) systems. The details of the Modal Demand Model can be described as follows: ▪ Modal Demand Model, it is a model used to find the travel demand between any two areas (latent demand). The latent demand becomes the actual demand when the travel utility traveling between the two areas is greater than the level of sacrifice (travel expenses and time) used for traveling between the two areas. ▪ Transportation users choose the mode and route of travel to achieve the lowest level of sacrifice. ▪ Travel utility between any two areas will differ depending on the type of travel. ▪ To predict the number of passengers in a high-speed rail system using the Modal Demand model, three functions are created: latent demand function, utility distribution function and time value function. All three functions are created using current travel information. ▪ Actualization factors are created using a combination of future transportation network, future utility, and future level of sacrifice data. ▪ Future latent demand can be estimated from the latent demand function. ▪ When future latent demand and actualization factors are evaluated together, it is possible to estimate the travel demand of each OD pair and each transport mode. ▪ In the passenger forecast for the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed train, the total area is divided into 30 areas, 14 of which are along the high-speed rail line and 14 areas are the areas surrounding the origin and destination points. The modes of travel used for comparison are airports, highways, expressways, buses, and conventional railways (conventional rail, 160 km./hr) and high-speed rail. 3.1.4 Summary of the implementation of the rail system development model in foreign countries for use in Thailand. According to the collection of information and modeling guidelines abroad and the preparation of overseas rail system development plans. It can be summarized as a guideline for use in the development of rail systems in Thailand as follows: ▪ The Modeling Guidelines and Plans for Rail System Development of Tokyo, Japan are approaches that are similar in nature and environment to model developments and plans of rail systems of Bangkok Metropolitan Regionand can be used as an example in action as well.

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network Department of Rail Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Final Report 3-30 ▪ In the development of models and plans of rail systems in Bangkok Metropolitan Region. Consideration should be given to approaches to connecting to Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports, as well as Bang Sue and Makkasan high-speed train stations. There are specific models to analyze the number of passengers from these locations. ▪ The transport and traffic model developed by the Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning (OTP) is a commonly used model. It does not focus on forecasting rail passengers in particular. Therefore, in the development of models to forecast rail passengers of DRT, a particular focus should be placed on the rail system. This can be done in many parts. For example, the model for choosing the mode of travel of the OTP has a large number of travel modes. However, the number of modes of transportation may be reduced. by choosing only to directly affect rail passengers. At present, the rail route choice model has not yet been developed, which should be further developed. ▪ Factors affecting the number of rail passengers in the future that have not yet been considered in the OTP model include age range of travelers, changing work patterns that reduce the demand to travel as often as before. The form of entering and leaving the station, etc. From the rail system development models in foreign countries to be applied to Thailand. The differences between the extended Bangkok Urban Model (eBUM) and the Railway Demand Forecasting Model can be summarized as follows: 1) Travel behavior predicted by the model. ▪ eBUM - is an overview travel forecasting model for Bangkok Metropolitan Region. used to forecast travel behavior by 14 modes: Personal Car Personal Motorcycle Railway (MRT BTS ARL) BRT Air-conditioned buses Public Passenger Vans Regular Buses Minibus, small 4-wheeler Passenger Boat Train Taxi, Grab Car

The Study for the Development of a Macro Simulation Model for forecasting the demand for rail travel and the development of a rail mass transit network in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Phase 2 (M-MAP2) Department of Rail Transport Final Report 3-31 Motor tricycle Motorcycle Taxi Walk ▪ Railway Demand Model - The Railway Demand Forecasting Model is used to forecast travel demand by a single rail system. This gives the railway Demand Forecasting Model a higher demand forecasting accuracy than the eBUM model. 2) Details of the rail system in the model. ▪ The eBUM - Rail Station in the model is just a 1 travel Node, with no internal station details and connections to various modes of transport around the station. ▪ Railway Demand Model - Rail Station in the model is with details of connections to other modes of transport around the station such as the entrance-exit of each station for both horizontally and vertically, Ticket sales area, etc. 3) Model calibration and Validation and Forecasting Accuracy. ▪ eBUM - Calibrate the overall rail demand at the route level of each train line. ▪ Railway Demand Model – Calibrate rail demand at the station-to-station level. using real travel information from the ticketing system which is calibrated at the highest level of resolution. The benefits from the Rail Demand Forecasting Model are as follows: 1) Investing in the rail system is a high-cost investment in billions of baht per kilometer. This makes the planning of the rail system need to be careful and meets the travel needs of the people the most in order to maximize the utilization of government investments. 2) TheRail Demand Forecasting Model is a specific model for forecasting the demand for rail travel in Bangkok and its vicinity. It is designed to be accurate in forecasting high rail travel demands. This makes it possible for infrastructure planning such as route lines, station layouts/locations/sizes and in terms of services such as the number of passenger carriages, Service frequency in each period, fare price that can truly respond to the needs of the people who use the service.