15 1Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Cassava Yield & Harvested Area RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 %Change in cassava yield %Change in cassava harvested area Cassava yield will be declined in the lower section, while its yield in the northern region will be increased Harvested area of cassava will be decreased in almost all regions (except for some provinces in the northeastern region) Province %change_yield_rcp85_vs_baseline 0.01 - 10.00 no cassava planting -4.99 - 0.00 -9.99 - -5.00 -12.20 - -10.00 Province cassava$.%change_land_rcp85_vs_baseline 0.01 - 20.00 no cassava planting -19.99 - 0.00 -39.99 - -20.00 -59.99 - -40.00 -79.99 - -60.00 -100.00 - -80.00 -2.57% -6.22% -12.49% -16.05% % changes of yield & harvested area in 2046-2055 under scenarios from the baseline 1992-2016 151
15 2Baseline production (MT) % change of production with RCP 4.5 % change of production with RCP 8.5 Province production_baseline(MT) 5000000.01 - 10000000.00 1000000.01 - 5000000.00 500000.01 - 1000000.00 100000.01 - 500000.00 50000.01 - 100000.00 0.01 - 50000.00 no sugarcane planting %change_production_rcp85_vs_baseline no sugarcane planting -19.99 - 0.00 -39.99 - -20.00 -59.99 - -40.00 -79.99 - -60.00 -100.00 - -80.00 Province cassava$.%change_pr0.01 - 20.00 no cassava planting -19.99 - 0.00 -39.99 - -20.00 -59.99 - -40.00 -79.99 - -60.00 -100.00 - -80.00 production_baseline(MT) 1000000.01 - 5000000.00 500000.01 - 1000000.00 100000.01 - 500000.00 50000.01 - 100000.00 10000.01 - 50000.00 0.01 - 10000.00 no cassava planting Baseline production (MT) % change of production with RCP 4.5 % change of production with RCP 8.5 Source: Pipitpukdee and Attavanich (2020a) Sugarcane Cassava Source: Pipitpukdee and Attavanich (2020b) % changes of total production in 2046-2055 under scenarios from the baseline 1992-2016 Production of sugarcane and cassava will be adversely affected by climate change Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Production of Sugarcane & Cassava -24.94% -34.93% -14.74% -21.26% 152
15 3Conclusion Crops type In-season rice in the irrigated area In-season rice in the nonirrigated area Off-season rice Total rice Sugarcane Cassava Yield baseline (kg/HA) 3,376 2,281 4,193 2,798 61,360 18,400 %Changes under RCP4.5 -2.72 -23.72 -6.14 -10.34 -23.95 -2.57 %Changes under RCP8.5 -2.51 -34.04 -8.07 -14.42 -33.26 -6.22 Harvested area baseline (1,000 HA) 2,212 6,485 1,484 10,183 1,078 1,212 %Changes under RCP4.5 29.22 -10.84 5.05 0.18 -1.29 -12.49 %Changes under RCP8.5 37.82 -12.47 6.84 1.27 -2.49 -16.05 Production baseline (1,000 MT) 7.47 14.80 6.22 28.49 66.17 22.32 %Changes under RCP4.5 25.71 -31.99 -1.40 -10.18 -24.94 -14.74 %Changes under RCP8.5 34.36 -42.26 -1.78 -13.33 -34.93 -21.26 • Total supply of world exports for rice, sugarcane and manioc starch will be reduced by 7, 3 and 13%, respectively • Given the thin global market and the role of Thailand as a global exporter of these crops, the projected declines in the production could subsequently cause a spike in crop prices creating the concern for global food security 153
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ขอบพระค ุ ณคร ั บ ข้อมูลการติดต่อ รศ.ดร.วิษณุ อรรถวานิช ภาควิชาเศรษฐศาสตร์ คณะเศรษฐศาสตร์ มหาวิทยาลัยเกษตรศาสตร์ [email protected] https://sites.google.com/site/attavanichw/ 155