Sept2019

Market Update
September 2019

Kootenai County Single Family

Average Sold Price Interest rate took
a jump … PANIC
Interest rate
dips to all
time low

Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring

2013 Avg Sold Price 2019

Kootenai County Single Family

Units Sold

High

High High

High High

High High

LOW LOW LOW
LOW LOW
LOW

Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring

2013 Units sold 2019

Kootenai County
Sold Vs. New listings

Single Family

Kootenai County
Vacant Land

Sold Vs New listings

2Single Family Kootenai County

Why does it feel like “everyone” is a Realtor



Lawrence Yun says…..

https://youtu.be/09-tNYbVQoA?t=1247
https://youtu.be/09-tNYbVQoA?t=1247

What the expert economists say….

• “As we look ahead to the next recession, it’s important
to recognize how unusual the conditions were that
caused the last one, and what’s different about the
housing market today. Rather than abundant homes,
we have a shortage of new home supply. Rather than
risky borrowers taking on adjustable-rate mortgages,
we have buyers with sterling credit scores taking out
predictable 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. The housing
market is simply much less risky than it was 15 years
ago.”

• Zillow Economist, Jeff Tucker

Top 3 Triggers for next Recession
Trade Policy

Stock Market Correction

Geopolitical Crisis
Coming in at #9 …
Housing Slowdown

https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations

When Will Next U.S. Recession Begin?

46%

21% 24%
10%
2019
2020 2021 After 2021

Pulsenomics, Duke, NABE and WSJ



4.1 PROJECTED

Mean Percentage Appreciation

3.4

2.8 3.0
2.5

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Home Price Expectation Survey 2019 2Q

Mortgage Rate Projections

Quarter Freddie Fannie MBA NAR Average
Mac Mae of All Four

2019 3Q 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.82%

2019 4Q 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.82%

2020 1Q 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.85%

2020 2Q 3.9 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.87%



Residential Snap Shot

January 1st , 2019-August 31st , 2019

Area Residential Snap Shot 03 Hayden
01 CdA Area 02 Post Falls Area
Active Listings 776
Homes Sold/Closed YTD November 1st, 2018 – January 31, 2019 450
Avg Days on Market 1526 Active Listings 1558 Active Listings 86
Median Sales Price $358,000
Avg Sales Price 933 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 917 Homes Sold/Closed YTD $422,000
SP/OLP 97%
82 Avg Days on Market 97 Avg Days on Market

$320,000 Median Sales Price $284,000 Median Sales Price

$360,000 Avg Sales Price $314,000 Avg Sales Price

98% SP/OLP 99% SP/OLP

Area 04 Rathdrum/Twin Lakes Area 04a Hauser Lake Area 05 Athol/Spirit Lake NW Kootenai Co

Active Listings 569 Active Listings 41 Active Listings 207
Homes Sold/Closed YTD 336 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 22 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 129
Avg Days on Market 103 Avg Days on Market 73 Avg Days on Market 88
Median Sales Price $287,000 Median Sales Price $496,000 Median Sales Price $300,000
Avg Sales Price $328,000 Avg Sales Price $472,000 Avg Sales Price $324,000
SP/OLP 99% SP/OLP 98% SP/OLP 98%

Area Athol/Bayview 06 NE Kootenai Co Area 12 Silver Valley Area All Kootenai Co

Active Listings 105 Active Listings 383 Active Listings 5300
Homes Sold/Closed YTD 48 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 210 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 2994
Avg Days on Market 90 Avg Days on Market 104 Avg Days on Market
Median Sales Price Median Sales Price $137,000 Median Sales Price 93
Avg Sales Price $392,000 Avg Sales Price $154,000 Avg Sales Price $313,000
SP/OLP $410,000 SP/OLP 95% SP/OLP $367,000

97% 96%

*Data provided by Cda MLS

Residential Sales Comparison Year over Year
All MLS

722 676

691

583 653 590
585
535 617

586

461 462 530
388
461 459

319311 307

324

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2014 Sold 2015 Sold 2016 Sold 2017 Sold 2018 Sold 2019 Sold

*Data provided by CDA MLS

Months of Inventory Analysis
Kootenai Site Built < 2 Acres
June 1st ,2019 through August 31st, 2019

350

300 288

250

201
200

149 148
150

109
98
100 90

77

59
51

50 40

32
26
122 333 19 15 1 1 2 2 4 1823 2 1715 21 12 18 21 754 21
61 0 2 3 97 66 11 53 61

5

0

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory

Talking Points….

• Historically Fall is when the relationship between New listings and
Sales is an advantage to a seller. New inventory coming onto the
market is slowing to match the number of sales in the market.

• Currently new construction sales YTD are approximately 22% of all
the closed sales MLS wide.

• The premier buyer (above $500k) is up 2.8% from this time last year
to make up approximately 14% of the market. (12.5% of those
buyers are between $500-1 mill)

Months of Inventory Analysis
CDA Site Built < 2 Acres

June 1st , 2019 through August 31st, 2019

100
95

90

80 77

70

60
60

50 36

41
40

30 26 27

25

21 22 21 21
20 20

14
12

10 6 7 99 5 443 452 5
23 32 00
21 1 1 1 1 2 3 010 3 2 000 10
11 0

0

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory

*Data provided by Cda MLS

Months of Inventory Analysis
Residential Waterfront

June 1st ,2019 through August 31st, 2019

40

36 36

35

30

25 21 21

21
20

15 15 18
15
15 15
13 12 12 14

10 9 9 9
8
5 8
5 66
6 55
5

33

11 2 22 122
0 1 111

00 00 00 0 00 00

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory

*Data provided by Cda MLS

Months of Inventory Analysis
Kootenai Site Built > 2 Acres
June 1st ,2019 through August 31st , 2019

350

300 288

250

201
200

149 148
150

110
98
100 90
77

58
51

50 40

32
26
122 333 19 15 1 1 2 2 4 1823 2 1715 21 12 18 21 754 21
61 0 2 3 97 66 11 53 61

5

0

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory Analysis
Post Falls Site Built < 2 Acres
June 1st, 2019 through August 31st , 2019

140
127

120

100

80 77
72

60 40 48 52 30 19 7 434 113 12 100 100
1 2 47 24 14 10 4
40
3 2 4 1
20
5
0

0

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory Analysis
Rathdrum Site Built < 2 Acres
June 1st, 2019 through August 31st, 2019

35

32

30

25

20 18

15 5
15 1

10 11
9
5 3 44 8 6 3
0 2 3 5 0
1 2
0 2 1

0

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory Analysis
Hayden Site Built < 2 Acres
June 1st, 2019 through August 31st , 2019

35

30
30

26
25 24

20
18

17

15

10 12 11 10 10 10 9
10 22 3 8
4 3
6 8 1 8 6 4 6 1
1 6
5 4 4 4 2 44
5 2 22 1 3

1 1 00
0

0

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory

*Data provided by Cda MLS