Community Driven Resilience (CDR) – Community Based Disaster Risk Management and Early Warning Systems - Participants Hand Book ToT

Activity 4c: Household Economy Analysis (HEA) Baselines
Time: 40 minutes

Household Economy Analysis: A Household Economy Analysis (HEA) is a
baseline assessment with three components: Livelihood zoning, Wealth
breakdown and an Analysis of livelihood strategies for each of the
identified wealth groups.
In your small groups Brainstorm on the HEA sections noted below for this specific
community. Write your answers on a flip chart. See the sample from the fictional
country of Atlas as a guide to what an HEA may
include in Figure 16. These are the standard reference for a region and
include a comprehensive overview of pastoral and agro-pastoral
livelihoods throughout specific districts or locations.
Figure 16: Sample HEA from Fictional Country of Atlas
NOTE: See full Atlas/Treeville Profile document for details

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Livelihood population
• 69.1% of people in Atlas live in poverty, and almost 80 percent of the country’s popu-

lation is under the age of 30 with an unemployment rate of 15.1% by 2020. The adult
literacy rate of Atlas stands at 41%, one of the lowest in the world.
Livelihood activities = Agriculture, Pastoralism, Fisheries, Light-scale
manufacturing
• Significant food deficits exist in all pastoral livelihoods due to
consecutive failed rainy seasons and high staple food prices.
• Youth livelihood interventions are contributing to improved food
security in 2 urban areas.

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Wealth group characteristics
• High economic gender inequality exists as women have fewer
employment opportunities, accounting for only 39.8 percent of the labor
force. There have been various microfinance schemes set up to encourage
women’s participation, however they often lack the collateral needed to
obtain credit. This leaves many women employed in vulnerable and
insecure informal sectors.

Food and income sources
• Agriculture
• Fisheries - coastal and riverine
• Light-scale manufacturing - boat-building, granary production, local

cooking stoves, water reservoirs

Seasonality
• Atlas is affected by seasonal variations in income sources,
• expenditures, and short term migration.

Vulnerabilities, risks, and responses
• Prices in the capital city of Hill View remain high and impact rural
prices as most of the food commodities come from the city. The current
basic expenditure basket for poor households remains 48% above the
five-year average.
• Most common causes of infant mortality are Diarrhea and Acute
Respiratory Infections (ARIs).
• Due to a lack of gender-related data, there are few national statistical

indicators related to needs of women, men, girls, and boys. This is
despite the establishment of the Ministry of Gender.
• Global acute malnutrition (GAM) is estimated 15% country wide
compared to 20% in the last severe drought of 2020. The Integrated Food
Security Phase Classification (IPC) threshold for Phase 5 (Famine) is 30%5.0

Indicators to monitor:
• Food expenditure basket
• GAM
• Youth unemployment

49HEA (n.d.). Baseline assessment. https://www.heacod.org/en-gb/Pages/BSSAssessments.aspx
50IPC (2021). IPC Technical Manual https://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/manual/IPC_Technical_Manual_3_Final.pdf

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Activity 4d: Scenario Building

Time: 30 minutes

.
Background Reading
“Scenarios are stories about how the future might develop, aimed to stimulate
exploration, understanding, and discussion. Based on a coherent set of assumptions
about key deterministic relationships and driving forces, scenarios describe plausible
futures that are intended to be scrutinised and debated. In the context of risk,
scenarios provide a tool to cope with uncertainty, especially in the case of risks that
are not well understood or cannot be quantified or even identified. They provide a
systematic method for exploring how a complex and diverse array of risks may impact
a society; or in other words, how resilient these systems are to potential disruptions.
Scenarios question whether organisations or communities can adapt to, and even
capitalise on, future changes, and stress their existing capabilities to respond. This
understanding can be applied to support and rationalize decision making about the
future, and inform preparedness for, management, and mitigation of risks. Scenarios
are valued for supporting creative thinking about plausible futures, rather than.”

Guidance:
In your group you will use your chosen community to build scenarios for
the list of 3 prioritized hazards.

There are five areas for which groups should provide information.
You should be as detailed as possible.

It is essential that groups concentrate on the ‘worst case’ scenario that
could be possible. Scenario building should reflect analysis of current sea-
sonal conditions and what might happen in the coming rain season.

Scenario building covers a range of activities including risk analysis and
forecasting. Scenario building should reflect analysis of current seasonal
conditions and what might happen in the coming rain season.
You will use the same groups as previously and each group will use their
chosen community to build scenarios for the list of 3 prioritized hazards.
There are five areas for which each of your groups should provide
information and you should be as detailed as possible. We will go through
the 5 areas step by step as we continue.

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Activity 4e Early Warning Signs:
Time: 30 minutes
In your groups take 10 mins and brainstorm on indicators that a disaster might be
coming. These indicators that a disaster might be coming, are usually based on:
• Seasonal performance, quantity, and quality of rain
• Bulletins
• Reports, observations, rumors
• Radio, television
• Elders
Be sure to include Indigenous Early Warning Signals. For example, in Ethiopia for flood
hazards communities noted EW signals as:
• Cloud cover: very dense and dark upstream
• The direction of the stars
• The moon bound by ring-type fog
• Noises produced by livestock and wild animals: hyenas
• Behavior of insects concentrated in large groups producing continuous sounds:

beetles, wasps, crickets, etc.
• Smell of soil predicts the intensity of the floods
Now in your groups brainstorm on these indicators and share your answers on a flip
chart paper.

Community Level Activity for Low-literacy Settings:
This activity can be conducted at community level.

55

Activity 4f Triggers for Response:
Time: 20 minutes
Table 8 Triggers for Response

Hazard Name

Early Warning Trigger Level 1 Trigger Level 2 Trigger Level 3
Sign 1

Season or environmentally Indicators are triggered that Incrementally increasee Level three triggers indicate
predictive indicators of require the early warning severity of trigger 1 that partners should scale up
increased threat of hazard committee to take pre-emptive indicators that propel the and prepare for a shock that
EWS to take more exceeds the ability of the
actions to mitigate the shock comprehensive actions to community to cope a disaster
increasing in its magnitude. manage the shock.

Early Action Action Level 1 Action Level 2 Action Level 3

Zero cost actions that are Action Level 1 activities are Level 2 actions leverage Level 3 actions include
focused around focused on mitigation of low greater community resources external support for high
information sharing, levels of hazard and to cope with the current level of copping activities
communicating and preventative activities to shock and prepare for level and address a disaster
preparedness planning protect the rest of the 3 actions. scenario of that hazard
community.

RESPONSIBILITY: Which actors are responsible
for the actions above?

Budget Itemize a simple budget
Duration: required for each level of
actions

Consider the number of days,
weeks, months that the
hazard might occur. Identify
the seasonality of the hazard.
(when could this occur, which
season and months?)

Affected Population Identify number of vulnerable
households, location (villages/
District/Zone), livelihood
group (pastoralist, agro -
pastoralist, other), weath
group (poor, middle, better-
off), gender, age.

Objective of What is the response trying
Response to achieve? Saving lives or
protecting livelihoods? For
whom?

56

Triggers are the point when observation/monitoring tells us it is time to
activate the contingency plan and respond, either to everything or to
particular scenarios included in the plan. Triggers can be related to early
warning indicators, for example:
Figure 17: Example of a Trigger

Let’s look at 3 standard levels of Triggers and see some examples.
Trigger Level 1: Indicators are triggered that require the early warning
committee to take pre-emptive actions to mitigate the shock increasing
in its magnitude.
Trigger Level 2: Incrementally increased severity of trigger 1 indicators that
propel the EWC to take more trigger 1 indicators that propel the EWC to
take more comprehensive actions to manage the shock
Trigger Level 3: Level three triggers indicate that partners should scale up
and prepare for a shock that exceeds the ability of the community to cope
(a disaster).
Take a look at the Early Warning Signs that you have just captured and
now work in your small group to brainstorm Triggers for Response. Write
your answers on a flip chart capturing the information in the Table 8
(Appendix 19: Triggers for Response)

Community Level Activity for Low-literacy Settings:
This activity can be conducted at community level.

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Activity 4g Estimated Duration of the Hazard and Affected Population

Time: 20 minutes

In your small groups decide on the Estimated Duration of the Hazard for
the specific community by considering the following:

• Number of days, weeks, months
• Seasonality (when could this occur, which season and months?)

In your small groups -decide on the Estimated Population Affected by the
Hazard or the specific community by considering the following:
• Number of households, Location (Development Centre), Livelihood

group (pastoralist, agro-pastoralist, other), Wealth group (poor, middle,
better-off), Gender, Age

Write your answers on a flip chart.

51Chan, E.Y.Y. (2018). Building bottom-up health and disaster risk reduction Programmes
https://books.google.co.ug/books?id=ofpADwAAQBAJ&l

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Activity 4h Early Action Responses:
Time: 20 minutes
Table 9: Estimated Duration and Affected Population

Creating an early action based on the Early Warning signs and Triggers for
Response, your team will now discuss what response. Begin by thinking of
what is the Objective of the Response.
Complete Table 9 with the information you have written on your flip chart
SMART Objectives are always: Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic
and Time bound. To learn more see Chan (2018).51
.

59

In your small groups decide on the Estimated Duration of the Hazard for
the specific community by considering the following:
• Number of days, weeks, months
• Seasonality (when could this occur, which season and months?)
In your small groups -decide on the Estimated Population Affected by the
Hazard or the specific community by considering the following:
• Number of households, Location (Development Centre), Livelihood

group (pastoralist, agro-pastoralist, other), Wealth group (poor, middle,
better-off), Gender, Age
Write your answers on a flip chart.

My Notes:

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Some Level 1 Early Actions may include5:2
Cash / in-kind unconditional grants
Conditional transfers
Increase scale of Seasonal public works
Increase value of Vouchers on a case-by-case basis
Consider two School meals for school children
Accelerate public health actions
Decrease tax or charges related to receiving remittances
Action Level 2 actions leverage greater community resources to cope with
the current shock and prepare for level three actions
Some Level 2 Early Actions may include5:3
External fund for increased number of beneficiaries for cash, food and
conditional
Number of employed for seasonal public works increased
Extend number of Vouchers
School lunches for all school children
Increase support for families, institutions caring for orphans, displaced, etc
Increase support for sending remittances
Action Level 3 actions include external support for high level of coping
activities and address a disaster scenario of that hazard

(Optional)
You may complete this exercise to capture more Detail:
Use the following exercise from the Climate Centre to capture the lead time of early
actions given days, weeks, months or years to prepare and place the answers in
Table 10.54

Table 10

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Step 1. Discuss the following: What actions would you take to reduce the impact of
flooding (or other hazards) given days, weeks, months or years to prepare?
Step 2. List those actions come to mind each on a separate piece of card or sticky
note.
• “If you knew a flood was certain (100% probability), would they do everything

possible to implement these actions? (They’re likely to answer: YES!)”
• “If you knew a flood was impossible (0% probability), would they do everything

possible to implement these actions? (They’re likely to answer: NO!)”
• Now, “What if the chance of heavy rains might lead to a flood was 30%, 25%,

55%, 60%, 45%? Ensure that participants understand the concept of percentages.
• What would you do? What actions would you take?”
• Forecasts are not certain but probabilistic, so we define triggers for action,
attached to particular levels of warning.
Step 3. Share your cards
Step 4. Think about the kind of external support that communities would need to
work with.

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Take a look at the Early Warning Signs and Triggers that you have just
captured and now work in your small group to brainstorm Early Actions for
these triggers ensuring that you discuss Zero Cost Actions as well as Action
Levels, 1-3. Write your answers on a flip chart capturing the information
in the Table 11 (Appendix 20: Early Action Table).
Table 11 Early Action Table

Now in your groups fill out the complete table in order to complete a full
Contingency Plan for the community you have chosen. Leave out the
budget and we will complete in a separate session.

Community Level Activity for Low-literacy Settings:
This activity can be conducted at community level. Brainstorm, each team
must come up with as many early actions as they can. The teams will then
select the 8 most important early actions from the list they have
brainstormed. They write each action onto one piece of paper
(thus creating eight pieces of paper with one action each). Note – in low
literacy settings, the transfer to the early action cards may be done using
simple icons/drawings everybody acknowledges; allow some extra time for
this compared to when writing. The groups can use stones with the groups
to prioritize actions. Adapted from the Ready game.

52SomReP Crisis Modifier V2 Dollow
53IBID
54Climate Centre (n.d.). Module 2c: Early warning, early action exercises https://www.climatecentre.org/downloads/modules/training_downloads/2b%20Exer-

cise%20using%20climate%20information.pdf

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See Table 12 (Appendix 21) for the full Final Output Sample <Village Name>
Contingency Plan.

Hazard Name

Early Warning Trigger Level 1 Trigger Level 2 Trigger Level 3
Sign 1

Season or environmentally Indicators are triggered that Incrementally increasee Level three triggers indicate
predictive indicators of require the early warning severity of trigger 1 that partners should scale up
increased threat of hazard committee to take pre-emptive indicators that propel the and prepare for a shock that
EWS to take more exceeds the ability of the
actions to mitigate the shock comprehensive actions to community to cope a disaster
increasing in its magnitude. manage the shock.

Early Action Action Level 1 Action Level 2 Action Level 3

Zero cost actions that are Action Level 1 activities are Level 2 actions leverage Level 3 actions include
focused around focused on mitigation of low greater community resources external support for high
information sharing, levels of hazard and to cope with the current level of copping activities
communicating and preventative activities to shock and prepare for level and address a disaster
preparedness planning protect the rest of the 3 actions. scenario of that hazard
community.

RESPONSIBILITY: Which actors are responsible
Budget for the actions above?
Duration:
Itemize a simple budget
required for each level of
actions

Consider the number of days,
weeks, months that the
hazard might occur. Identify
the seasonality of the hazard.
(when could this occur, which
season and months?)

Affected Population Identify number of vulnerable
households, location (villages/
District/Zone), livelihood
group (pastoralist, agro -
pastoralist, other), weath
group (poor, middle, better-
off), gender, age.

Objective of What is the response trying
Response to achieve? Saving lives or
protecting livelihoods? For
whom?

64

Community Level Activity for Low-literacy Settings:
This activity can be conducted at community level.

More Resources:
Video: What is Anticipatory Action56
https://www.fao.org/emergencies/resources/videos/video-detail/en/c/1302206/
Somalia Case Study - Understanding the role of anticipatory action in Somalia

Activity 4i Budgeting 57
Time: 90 minutes
Table 13 Indicative Budget (Appendix 22)

55Climate Centre (n.d.). Ready! https://climatecentre.org/downloads/modules/games/Ready!.pdf
56FAO (2020). What is anticipatory action. https://www.fao.org/emergencies/resources/videos/video-detail/en/c/1302206/
57Levine, S., Humphrey, A., & Weingärtner, L. with Abdi, M. (2021). Understanding the role of anticipatory action in Somalia https://www

anticipation-hub.org/Documents/Policy_Papers/Understanding_the_role_of_anticipatory_action_in_Somalia.pdf

65

In this activity your group’s objective is to draft representative cost
estimates for each response in the contingency plan. Use the same groups
as previously, unless the hazard groups need to be further divided
according to more specific scenarios. If making new groups, continue to be
strategic in how the participants are distributed across the groups.

After filling Table 13 for every Early Warning Action, add up all the costs
to get the total cost for every scenario and add to the Contingency Plan
table to complete the contingency planning process for the community
you chose.

Activity 4j PLENARY Revisions of the Contingency Plan

Time: 30 minutes

This part is conducted at community level to ensure that the frequency and
rationale of contingency plans are agreed across stakeholders.
.
This discussions will focus on contingency planning and to agree on the fol-
lowing:
• How regularly should the contingency plan be revised/ updated? Should it

be after the results of each biannual assessment are released?
• Which stakeholders should participate in future revisions (that is, using the

current group as a reference, are there others that should have been
invited? Some whose participation proved unnecessary?
• In terms of community representatives, should they have been consulted in

separate discussions/fieldwork before coming to the workshop?

More generally, there is the question of finalizing the current version of the
contingency plan, once the report is drafted and all necessary assessments are
completed. A one-day workshop with community officials might be sufficient
for this purpose.

Community Level Activity for Low-literacy Settings:
This activity can be conducted at community level. This activity is to be
conducted at community level once all groups have come up with the
contingency plans and budgets to build consensus.

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Session 5: Creating a Social Affairs
Committee

Objectives of the Session:
By the end of this session 5 you will be able to support communities to set up a Social
Affairs Committee for the sustainable community-led disaster resilience activities.

Approach:
Small Group Activities Discussion/QA

Tools for Trainers at Community Level:
Marker pens, Flip charts, Terminologies

Time: 60 minutes

Key Terminologies:
Accountability: Accountability is related to providing a description and justification for
your actions to others. It involves being responsible to someone, or some organization
for what you do.

Community involvement: engaging all categories of the community in the
developmental activities of the community58

Social Affairs Committee: This is an executive body of the village and oversees all
development initiatives of their respective villages.

Transparency: This is operating in such a way that it is easy for others to see what
actions are performed. Transparency implies openness, communication, and
accountability.

Creating a budget for early warning activities is a key step for an EWC, but
the committee will also need to mobilize funds for the activities. In order
for a community to find needed funds, a community should establish or
revive the social affairs committee.

Let us start by learning more about the operations of the social affairs
committee (SAC). The SAC serves as a mechanism for managing the
community contributions to contingency funds that have been established
and operationalised. The SAC also is helpful to link with co-financing
mechanisms for the community social funds, and additionally serve to
manage co-financing from the diaspora to the Community Action and
Adaption Planning (CAAPs).

58Checkland, K. M Marshall1, M., Harrison, S. Re-thinking accountability: trust versus confidence in medical practice BMJ Quality & Safety
2004;13:130-135. https://qualitysafety.bmj.com/content/13/2/130

67

Figure 18

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Figure 18 illustrates how the SAC fits with the other sub committees of the
community. Every village may need to have a SAC that oversees all development
initiatives of their respective villages.
In many cases the Village Development Committee (VDC) or Village Council (VC) will
have oversight over the SAC. Each SAC should be governed by the rules and
regulations that will be developed, agreed and ratified by the village general assembly
or another relevant authority in the area. The relevant authority should guide on the
actual number of members on the committee, however the core members on the SAC
committee are:
(a) One Chairperson and one Vice-chairperson elected by the people of the concerned
village
(b) Secretary and Deputy Secretary
(c) Treasurer
(d) Two/four members of the committee
The SAC is at the center and a key development mentor as well as mediator of all
relevant development efforts at village level. The philosophy is based on the
expectation that the SACs would be mobilized and capacitated through active
participation and implementation process and would act as community institution
even after phasing out of the respective program.

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Functions/Roles of the SAC:

• To raise various village development projects;
• To mobilize community development;
• To mobilize villagers to attend all prescribed meetings;
• To supervise implementation of village laws and other local government laws in
general;
• Fundraising and community mobilization for own in-kind contributions;
• To prepare proper village revenue collection and expenditure;
• Identification of vulnerable members of village and provide/mobilize for
appropriate support;
• To ensure proper supervision of village finances; and
• To ensure proper village legal trade activities are conducted in the village.

In order to formulate effective SAC committees, the following steps should
be followed as outlined by Gladys Peace Akello, Economic Empowerment
Technical Specialist, SomReP:

Step 1. Seek Commitment of Community Leaders
This will help ensure that the SAC and planning process be given a high priority within
the village. It is important to know who are the local leaders and community officials
that are ‘gatekeepers’ to your communities? Good to identify and know them and
seek their support otherwise it will not succeed. Include local government officials, but
ensure it is a community led process and no individual benefit is expected.

Step 2. Raise community awareness of SAC
A community/village meeting should be held to introduce the key concepts of SAC.
The meeting should be open to all interested parties, but village leaders and village
elders should be specifically invited (they may not necessarily be in the SAC). Brief the
community on the process to form a SAC, their roles in community development and
management and relationships with other community key structures. The aim is to
provide a group that fairly represents the range of people that exist in the community
and an institution that does not duplicate what others do. Emphasize this to create
understanding and harmony at the very outset of formation.

Step 3. Seek nominations/Election for the SAC
At the end of the meeting, seek election/nominations to participate in the SAC. These
can either be nominations by individuals themselves present, or nominations of people
not present. If nominations are made of people not present at the meeting, the
nominated individual should be approached to determine their interest in
participating in the SAC. It is also important to consider the involvement of
community members that are already pro-active in other committees/projects. Also,
it is important that marginalized people (e.g., elderly, disabled, women (particularly
women headed households), orphans, minority groups, and the very poor) are
included in SAC. Keeping in mind that the key drivers for the implementation of the
SAC activities will come from the consultation group, other forums/committees. Also
ensure it is a community led process and no individual benefit is expected.

70

Step 4. Arrange Timing for SAC Process
Guidance:
Plan to train the SAC in 3 days or 3 days equivalent of time spread over
one week on their roles and responsibilities.
Lead the small groups in a discussion on the major training areas for the
SAC committee; the discussion should focus on:
• Resource mobilization;
• Community participation/inclusion, accountability, and transparency;
• Financial tracking; and
• Contingency Fund, Community Social Funds, CAAP Fund.
Introduce a simple to use and understand financial tracking and recording
tool for the SAC if one is not already in use. Below is an example of such
a tool in Table 14.

Table 14: SAC Incomes and Expenditure Financial Tracking and Recording Tool

Community Level Activity for Low-literacy Settings:
This activity can be conducted at community level.

71

Session 6: Workshop Planning and
Preparation

Objectives of the Session:
By the end of this session, you will be able to support communities to plan and carry
out a CBDRM Awareness and EW/EA workshop.
Approach:
Small Group Activities Discussion/QA
Tools for Trainers at Community Level:
Marker pens, Flip charts
Time: 90 minutes
Key Terminologies:
Activity 6a: Community Profile

As noted at the beginning of this module, you will create a Community
Profile for one of the communities that you work with. Collect all of the
materials that you have created and/or collected and share with other
participants in your small groups for feedback. Use the Community Profile
Checklist (Appendix 2) to help you check that you have all that is needed.

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Activity 6b Create Workshop Agenda
Time: 60 minutes
In this session you will practice some skills that you will use in supporting
communities to carry a CBDRM awareness and/or EW/EA workshop. During the
workshop you will need to work with leaders to ensure that ground rules are
established, that participants know each other and that you have helped the
community carry out the necessary preparations for the workshop.
In small groups, you will work to create a workshop agenda that you would use at
community level to carry CBDRM/ EW awareness. Ensure that you capture the
activities that you would use from this training and any needed modifications to the
tools and methodologies keeping in mind literacy issues. Then at the end you will
share in plenary for feedback.
As discussed throughout this module, as part of the CBDRM process, an awareness
raising workshop is held with local community members. The Workshop Objectives
may generally include:
• To introduce CBDRM key terminologies;
• To create awareness about the CBDRM approach and discuss how it can be used

to build community resilience;
• To introduce CBDRM tools (early warning, contingency planning, contingency

fund); and
• To introduce Early Warning and seek nominations for Early Warning Committees.

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