16 DEC 2023 E Book

www.businessworld.in RNI NO. 39847/81 I 16 DECEMBER 2023 Rs 200 MANAGEMENT EDUCATION IN THE AGE OF AI Directors of India’s top B-schools on how disruptive technologies are reshaping the essence of management education B-SCHOOL SPECIAL Clockwise, from top left: Debashis Chatterjee, Director, IIM Kozhikode; Vinita Sahay, Director, IIM Bodh Gaya; Himanshu Rai, Director, IIM Indore; Bharat Bhaskar, Director, IIM Ahmedabad; Rishikesha T. Krishnan, Director, IIM Bangalore; Vishal Talwar, Director, IMT Ghaziabad EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW: GUJARAT CM BHUPENDRA PATEL SPECIAL DOUBLE EDITION

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FINEST PLACEMENTS LAST 5 YEARS PGDM 100% MBA Excellence in Management Education Since 1992 New Delhi Institute of Management Approved by AICTE since 1996 Accredited by National Board of Accreditation (NBA) Declared equivalent to MBA by AIU & AICTE Among “Illustrious Brands Making India Proud”- Mail Today Among “The Fastest Growing Business Schools of Asia”- process reviewer - KPMG-India Among “The World’s Greatest Brands in India in Education”-process reviewer - PwC Internationally Accredited by ASIC, U.K. Since 2014 as a Premier B-School 400 hours of Corporate & Soft Skills Grooming 12 month one to one Mentoring by 354 corporate mentors | | | | | | | | 50 (B&C) Tughlakabad Institutional Area, MB Road, New Delhi - 110062 Email: [email protected] [email protected] Ph.: 011-40111000, Toll Free: 1800-419-0606, www.ndimdelhi.org Awarded BEST Industry Linked B-School of India by AICTE 3 years in row Only Institute with a ‘Japan Centre’ and ‘Korea Centre’ preparing for Jobs with Japanese and Korean Companies Interactions with Hon’ble Shri Jageep Dhankhar, Vice President of India; Shri Pranab Mukherjee- Former President of India; Dr Manmohan Singh-Former Prime Minister of India; Mr M. Venkaiah Naidu-Former Vice President of India; Mr Suresh Prabhu-Ex-Union Minister Commerce, Industry & Civil Aviation; Mr Sunil Mittal-Chairman Bharti Airtel; Mr Subhash Chandra-Chairman Essel (Zee) Group; Mr Rajinder Gupta-Chairman Trident Group; Mr Suresh Narayanan-Chairman & MD Nestle; Mr Mahesh Gupta-Chairman Kent RO; Mr Harshavardhan Neotia-Chairman Ambuja Neotia Group; Mr SK Arya-Chairman JBM Group; Mr Kanwaljeet Jawa-MD & CEO Daikin; Mr N.Chandrasekaran-Chairman Tatasons & Air India; Mr Analjit Singh-Chairman Max Group; Mr Deepak Bagla-MD & CEO Invest India; Mr Binny Bansal-Co-Founder Flipkart; Mr Deepak Kapoor-Chairman PwC; Dr Arvind Lal-Chairman Dr Lal Path Labs; Mr R. C. Bhargava-Chairman, Maruti Suzuki; Dr Pawan Goenka-Chairperson, INSPACe & CEO MD Mahindra and Mahindra; Mr Alok ShriramCEO & Senior MD, DCM Shriram Industries; Mr CP Gurnani-CEO & MD, Tech Mahindra; Dr RS Sodhi-MD, Amul; Ms Pia Singh-Non Executive Director, DLF; Mr Nirmal K. Minda-Chairman & MD, UNO Minda; Ms Rama Kirloskar-MD, Kirloskar Ebara Pumps Ltd; Dr. Niranjan Hiranandani-Co-founder & MD, Hiranandani Group. 74 full time Faculty Associated with 33 Global Organizations & 310 Corporate Houses Industry Led, Tech Enabled 8 Dual Specializations Dynamic and Highly Proactive full time placement team DECLARED BEST INDUSTRY LINKED B-SCHOOL OF INDIA BY BUSINESS CHAMBERS HAVING BEEN DECLARED BEST IN INDIA FOR INDUSTRY LINKAGES & EMPLOYMENT RELATED PARAMETERS BY AICTE AND BUSINESS CHAMBERS Excellence in Providing Preferred Environment for Placements NDIM HAS NOT PARTICIPATED IN THESE B-SCHOOL RANKINGS OF “BUSINESS WORLD ” *Declared Best for Placements/Best in North India for 6 years

6 | BW BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 AT THE END OF EACH YEAR, dictionaries come up with the word of the year. This year, while Cambridge Dictionary announced ‘hallucinate’ as the word of the year, Collins Dictionary chose the more apt – ‘AI’. Artificial intelligence has created more buzz this year than any other development. Seminars and reams of newsprint for columns and articles have been devoted to it. Apart from AI two other terms are defining the world of work and business – VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) and BANI (Brittle, Anxious, Non-Linear and Incomprehensible). As a management institute honcho we interviewed for this special B-School edition says, “The biggest risk for corporates, including Fortune 500 CEOs, is uncertainty, as business cycles are constantly changing. Thus, the biggest challenge for B-Schools is preparing talent to navigate uncertainty and volatility, and to be resilient.” This is the theme that has influenced BW Businessworld’s rankings of B-Schools in 2023. The top order of rankings remains largely unchanged, comprising mostly firstgeneration IIMs and top-notch private B-Schools. Several new-generation IIMs and private institutes agile enough to mould and remould their curriculum to industry requirements are, however, also knocking at the doors of the elite club. New-age programmes, mentoring by industry experts, faculty projects and executive management programmes whose learnings are ploughed back into the flagship MBA programmes, and longer internships are some of the new measures that B-Schools have introduced to stay relevant. As one chief human resources officer (CHRO) says, “Unfortunately, many colleges remain resistant to prolonged associations (for internships). Surprisingly, tier -1 or tier -2 colleges aren’t leading in this aspect. It’s the lesser-known institutions eager to enhance their standing that allow longer associations, reaping significant benefits.” A pertinent question is how are B-Schools meeting the changing expectations of industry and aspirations of GenZ in times of disruptive technologies as the world prepares for Industry 5.0? This was a question we posed to all the B-School directors and deans, as well as CHROs. We also asked academia and HR fraternity how B-schools are inculcating the right understanding of diversity and sustainability on the campus, and grooming students for leadership roles in a world where ESG (environment, social and corporate governance) is taking centre stage, while VUCA and BANI are the buzzwords. The views that we bring to you in this issue could be a blueprint for what management education should ideally be. Of course, we also bring to you all our regular columns and features that you look forward to. Happy reading! ANNURAG BATRA [email protected] MANAGEMENT EDUCATION IN A VUCA WORLD EDITOR-IN-CHIEF’S NOTE

8 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 BW Businessworld does not accept responsibility for returning unsolicited manuscripts and photographs. All unsolicited material should be accompanied by self-addressed envelopes and sufficient postage. Published and printed by Annurag Batra for and on behalf of the owners, BW Businessworld Media Private Limited. Published at 74-75, Scindia House, Connaught Place, New Delhi-110001, and printed at Thompson Press India Limited. Editor : Annurag Batra. © Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission of the publisher is prohibited. All rights reserved. R.N.I.No. 39847/81 BW Businessworld Media Private Limited EDITORIAL OFFICES BW Businessworld Media Pvt. Ltd. 74-75, Scindia House, Connaught Place, New Delhi-110001 Phone: 9818063325 ADVERTISEMENT / CIRCULATION / SUBSCRIPTION ENQUIRIES BW Businessworld Media Pvt. 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10 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 MAILBOX YOUR COMMENTS TALK BACK www.businessworld.in RNI NO. 39847/81 I 18 NOVEMBER 2023 THE BULL RUN ISN’T DEAD, BUT... THE BOND MARKETS HAVE A BEARISH MESSAGE FOR STOCKS EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEWS UNION CIVIL AVIATION MINISTER JYOTIRADITYA SCINDIA NCRTC MD VINAY KUMAR SINGH Rs 200 CASE STUDY FOR INDIA This refers to the editorial (“China’s Realty Check,” BW, November 18). China’s real estate sector is facing a crisis. Major real estate firm, Evergrande, is unable to make its payments and Country Garden Holdings, the country’s largest developer, is struggling with unpaid debts and undelivered apartments. Sales have greatly decreased and the company has warned about future payment issues. To support the sector, the government is offering financial incentives and extending repayment deadlines. There are concerns about the impact of this crisis on the overall economy. The Chinese government must support the economy and avoid a financial crisis, while also being cautious not to cause another housing bubble. Let’s see if the government can handle this challenge successfully. ATHARVA VERMA, EMAIL BLIPP THIS PAGE TO GIVE US YOUR FEEDBACK INSTANTLY Submissions to BW |Businessworld should include the writer’s name and address and be sent by email to the editor at [email protected] or by mail to 74-75, Scindia House, Connaught Place, New Delhi-110001 PRO IPO MARKET? This refers to the editorial (“Navigating The IPO Season - What’s Ahead?,” BW, November 18). IPOs are important indicators of market liquidity and investor confidence. While they do not solely reflect a nation’s economic health, factors such as market conditions, sector dynamics and investor interest can affect IPO performance. Key economic indicators like GDP growth, unemployment, inflation and fiscal policies provide a more direct assessment of a country’s economic well-being. In India, high interest rates can impact equity markets by increasing borrowing costs, potentially slowing economic growth. Global economic conditions also influence India’s equity market. Investor sentiment, influenced by events and interest rate changes, plays a significant role. IPOs can be affected by market volatility during uncertain times, where geopolitical events and political uncertainty contribute to the overall situation. Elections also introduce market uncertainties, influencing IPO activity based on perceptions of policy continuity or change. AMAN KUMAR, EMAIL

12 | BW BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 Cover design by DINESH S. BANDUNI Getting Ready For Industry 5.0 An extensive look at the IIMs and how they have been jolted by the lurking spectre of Industry 5.0 that makes new demands on placement requirements 58 16 Jottings Ensnared in the GST labyrinth; Aboard the success express; The $4 trillion poser, and more 20Columns Minhaz Merchant (p. 20); Kiran Karnik (p. 22); Vikas Singh (p. 26); Amit Kapoor & Hari Menon (p. 30); Amit Tiwari (p. 34); Prakash Iyer (p. 36);Krishan Kalra (p. 38); Srinath Sridharan (p.228) 44 Funding Woes Indian tech startups have been hobbled by a sharp decline in funding this year. But the funding winter has been particularly severe on deeptech startups. What is the way out? 50 In Conversation Gujarat Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel on the Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit 2024, why the state has an edge over other Indian states and much more 64 Honouring A Legacy A walk through the third Dr Pritam Singh Memorial Conference 2023 and what the B-school fraternity and corporate world had to say about the man by way of homage 70 Degree Factories? Srinath Sridharan on how a majority of B-schools today are nothing more than degree-factories churning out graduates with certificates but lacking in skills 74Time For A Rethink Corporate sector veteran and management thinker Shiv Shivakumar on why the MBA course needs to include creativity, a trait that is mostly missing in the current crop of MBAs INDIA’S TOP B-SCHOOLS CONTENTS VOLUME 43, ISSUE 03 & 04 16 DECEMBER 2023 Photograph by Lemono

14 | BW BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 The pages in BW Businessworld that are labelled BWi or Promotions contain sponsored content. They are entirely generated by an advertiser or the marketing department of BW Businessworld. Also, the inserts being distributed along with some copies of the magazine are advertorials /advertisements. These pages should not be confused with BW Businessworld’s editorial content. TOTAL NO. OF PAGES INCLUDING COVER 246 162 ICFAI Business School, Hyderbad 164 MICA THE ALUMNI CORNER 166 Harsha Bhogle 168 Mallika Sarabhai 170 Prashant Tandon 172 Runam Mehta 184 Methodology 186 Rankings 230 Bookmark A review of Foreign Aid as Constraint On Decision Making – A Study of American Aid to Egypt and Israel by Jyoti Kumar 120 Matters Of The Art Passion investments are on the rise despite the global political and economic turmoil. But should you put your hard-earned money in things like art? Get the answer from our story 154 International Management Institute 156 Chitkara University 158 Great Lakes Institute of Management, Gurgaon 160 FORE School of Management 40 POWERING AHEAD How robust fundamentals, ample forex reserves and inflation control measures have together helped to put the Indian economy on a path of sustained growth 243 Last Word Suresh Narayanan, CMD, Nestlé India, on increasing digitalisation in management education and much more CONTENTS VOLUME 43, ISSUE 03 & 04 16 DECEMBER 2023 Photograph by Fotoevent Stock B-SCHOOL DIRECTOR SPEAK 76 IIM Ahmedabad 80 IIM Bangalore 84 IIM Indore 88 IIM Kozhikode 92 MDI Gurgaon 96 IMT Ghaziabad 100 SP Jain Institute of Management & Research 104 Xavier Institute of Management, Bhubaneswar 108 NMIMS University, Bengaluru 110 Jamnalal Bajaj Institute of Management Studies 112 K.J.Somaiya Institute of Management 116 BIMTECH 120 T.A. Pai Management Institute 124 IIM Nagpur 128 IIM Udaipur 132 IIM Tiruchirappalli 136 IIM Amritsar 140 IIM Jammu 144 IIM Raipur 148 IIM Bodh Gaya 152 Woxsen University

16 | BW BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 JOTTINGS Photograph by IrinaDrozd Photograph by Bivash Banerjee Ensnared in the GST Labyrinth T HE GOODS & SERVICES TA X (GST ) Council has issued over 20,000 notices to companies since 2022, impairing the merger and acquisition plans of these businesses. Many deals were postponed or halted as companies sought assistance of tax experts to figure out the GST implications of these transactions. Some companies also approached high courts to challenge the constitutional validity of these GST notices. The gaming industry has, for instance, been asked to pay a tax of about Rs 1.5 lakh crore. The insurance industry is disputing a demand of over Rs 5,500 crore. The real estate sector is facing a demand of over Rs 2,000 crore. Similarly, Swiggy and Zomato have received notices from the Directorate General of GST Intelligence (DGGI) demanding around Rs 1,000 crore. The authority decided to send the tax notices to the food delivery giants, as ‘delivery’ is deemed a ‘service’. Experts have been flagging concerns about uncertainties in the law, particularly tax credits and liability. Media reports have highlighted the problem of tax liability in relation to the assignment or transfer of foreign workers, for which the GST authorities have raised demands of thousands of crores. Recently, Empower India, a think tank, raised concerns about the reconciliation of revenue reported in GST returns with audited financial statements. It explained that differences between the two often arise owing to the nature and framework of GST provisions, such as interbranch stock transfers, transactions with related parties without consideration, and deferred revenues that accrue in different years for financial and income tax purposes. Ironically, the GST is a tax structure designed to simplify tariff collection from enterprises – who now find themselves in ensnared in a web! — Nitesh Kumar IT ALL BEGAN with an image that indicated that India’s GDP had crossed the $4 trillion-mark going viral on social media. Predictably, several high-profile luminaries from the spheres of politics and industry jumped into the fray to praise the achievement. Among the exultant were billionaire Gautam Adani, two ministers in the Narendra Modi-led Union Cabinet and Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. The cloud around this happy tiding is that economists and statisticians on the roles of the Union government have not come out to confirm this leap in India’s gross domestic product (GDP). Some economists do say though, that achieving the magic number is not too far away. The Union Budget 2023-24 estimated that India’s nominal GDP would reach Rs 301.75 lakh crore, reporting a growth rate of 10.5 per cent from a projected Rs 272.41 lakh crore in the 2022- 23 fiscal. India has demonstrated its resilience since a pandemic swept over the world in 2020. But new challenges have emanated since then. The Israel-Hamas conflict will only further disrupt supply chains for food and energy across the world, already hampered because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Even so, the optimistic see India breaching that $4 trillion mark in its GDP, enroute to the $5 trillion target set by the Prime Minister. — Abhishek Sharma The $4 Trillion Poser

ABOARD THE SUCCESS EXPRESS IN AN UPBEAT RHYTHM of progress, the Indian Railways (IRs) have truly been on a roll! In the April to October period of 2023, the Railways have not just hit, but soared past milestones, with a freight loading of 887.25 million tonnes (MT), up 31.61 MT from last year’s 855.64 MT. And you know what’s music to their ears? The sweet sound of Rs 95,929.30 crore jingling in their pockets, a cheerful upgrade from the Rs 92,345.27 crore for the same period, a year ago. And the star of the show is none other than coal, stealing the spotlight with a loading of 64.82 million tonnes in October 2023. But that’s not all – the freight fiesta doesn’t stop there. October witnessed an exuberant 8.47 per cent rise in total originating freight loading, to reach 129.03 MT compared to the same month last year. And the cash registers are singing too! October’s freight revenue danced its way to Rs 14,231 crore, a snazzy 6.6 per cent boost from the previous year’s Rs 13,354 crore. Coal might be the headliner, but the supporting acts are nothing short of spectacular. Iron ore, pig iron, finished steel, cement, clinker, foodgrain, fertilisers, mineral oil – you name it, they loaded it! Championing the mantra ‘Hungry For Cargo’, IR is not just moving goods; they’re setting a rhythm of efficiency and competitiveness across the nation. These recent numbers are more than statistics; they’re a testament to the railway’s unwavering commitment to fueling India’s transportation dreams! All aboard the success express! —Ashish Sinha Over the ages, the methods of imparting education have evolved to adapt to the ever-changing needs of society. In this context, the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 in India has emerged as a transformative measure that is reshaping the landscape of education. The NEP 2020 aims to revive the traditional Indian education system, the Gurukul, which emphasises a close teacher-student relationship and holistic learning. This approach is instrumental in fostering a deeper understanding of subjects and encouragchanges, one of which is flexible education. With this adaptable method, students can study at their own speed based on their unique needs and interests. This flexibility has been shown by the choice-based credit system (CBCS), which allows students to customise their educational experience to fit their individual learning preferences and styles. It encourages a deeper comprehension of difficult concepts and ideas. Sir Padampat Singhania University too has incorporated the transformative mechanism into its educational offerings. changes, one of which is flexible education. With this adaptable method, students can study at their own speed based on their unique needs and interests. a number of significant Revolutionising Education Through the National Education Policy The NEP 2020 aims to revive the traditional Indian education system, the Gurukul, which emphasises a close teacher-student relationship and holistic learning, writes Prof. (Dr.) M.K. Vajpayee, President and Vice Chancellor, Sir Padampat Singhania University, Udaipur ing critical thinking and creative abilities among students. The emphasis on guru-shishya parampara helps to create a nurturing and supportive learning environment.The NEP 2020 has introduced a number of significant Photograph by Tribhuwan Sharma nted with an ment due to: regime in the tment (FDI). orld Trade forcing its gIndia) to ve and nons. e cumulative ments is a he economic stry operates, option but to my from 1951 ie s by the rs and the law r SMEs in the was accorded or small-scale ll the nation zation and nt of small omy unemployment. One of the chief thrusts of SMEs is to regulate and provide a platform to the vulnerable groups of the society as the main drivers and empower the women and the youth to start their enterprises. Small enterprise promotion has continued to remain an important and integral part of Indian development strategy well before the First FiveYear Plan. However, the sec tors faces unforeseen challenges. Some of the most persisting constraints facing the sector, dominated by smaller units in the informal sectorincludepoorornon-availabilityofloaneconomy as they have already taken over as key contributors to country's GDP. The new shout out is the Make in India Campaign. Owing to the launch of �agship Make In India Campaign, Prime Minister Narender Modi has given way to a new national program designed to facilitate investment, cultivate innovation , augment pro�ciency in skill development, protect intellectual property and build Best-in-Class manufacturing infrastructure, there has never been a better time to make in India. India's small and medium-sized industries can play a big role in making the country take the next big leapinmanufacturingIndiashouldbemore

20 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 HE VISION INDIA @2047 DOCUMENT, to be released by Niti Aayog early next year, will outline a blueprint of structural reforms necessary for India to become a $30 trillion economy by 2047, the centenary of Indian independence. Niti Aayog CEO B. V. R. Subrahmanyam’s early estimates show that to achieve this target India’s annual GDP will have to grow at a significantly higher rate than the current 6.5 per cent. Is that possible over an extended time period? Ratings agency S&P recently forecast that India’s GDP will rise to $7.30 trillion by 2030. This assumes India’s economy will double in 2030 from $3.70 trillion in 2023. That factors in an annual nominal GDP growth rate of around 10 per cent. Nominal GDP includes inflation which is based on the wholesale price index (WPI). Unusually, the WPI in India is currently negative. The finance ministry expects WPI to rise above zero in the second half of this fiscal. But for the entire year, WPI will be no more than three per cent even as the consumer price index (CPI), which is not used as an inflation deflator for measuring GDP, is likely to stay at around five per cent. S&P has clearly taken the average nominal GDP growth rate between 2023 and 2030 at 10 per cent by assuming average real GDP growth at seven per cent plus an inflation deflator (WPI) of three per cent. Average nominal growth of 10 per cent over seven years automatically doubles GDP, assuming no further rupee depreciation against the US dollar. Apart from that optimistic assumption, S&P’s estimates are actually fairly cautious. Even a nominal growth rate of 10 per cent (seven per cent plus a three per cent inflation deflator) after 2030 will not be enough to make India a $30 trillion economy by 2030. Going from S&P’s 2030 GDP benchmark of $7.3 trillion to $30 trillion in 2047 requires quadrupling the economy in 17 years. Let’s do the math backwards. To achieve the $30 trillion target by 2047, India’s GDP will have to double twice between 2030 and 2047. That is roughly every nine years. This translates into an annual average nominal GDP growth rate of eight per cent. Now add the inflation deflator of three per cent. The Indian rupee has historically depreciated against the US dollar by three per cent a year. Assuming that holds in the future, it will cancel out the inflation deflator, leaving nominal GDP growth at eight per cent a year for each nine-year period. Thus between 2030 and 2039, Indian GDP should double from S&P’s $7.30 trillion estimate (2030) to around $15 trillion (2039). In the following period between 2039 and 2047, at a broadly similar growth rate, the $15 trillion economy, now on a fast track, could further double to $30 trillion in 2047. Note that rupee depreciation of three per cent a year has been factored in by adjusting the inflation deflator against the historical depreciation rate of three per cent. A $30 Trillion Economy? T Minhaz Merchant COLUMN MINHAZ MERCHANT The writer is the biographer of Rajiv Gandhi and Aditya Birla and author of The New Clash of Civilizations (Rupa 2014). He is founder of Sterling Newspapers Pvt Ltd., which was acquired by the Indian Express Group

16 December 2023 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 21 Meanwhile, Niti Aayog is preparing to consult business leaders in November on its Vision India @2047 blueprint. Several industrialists are to be consulted, including Reliance Industries Chairman Mukesh Ambani, Tata Sons Chairman N. Chandrashekaran, Aditya Birla group Chairman Kumar Mangalam Birla and Infosys Chairman Nandan Nilekani. Structural Reforms Global companies are de-risking their operations in China by moving to India. The reason isn’t only China’s slowing economy or draconian laws against foreign companies sharing data but India’s standalone merits: young demographics, a large consumer market, and world-class software and engineering talent. Frank Debets, managing partner (customs and trade practice) at PWC Asia Pacific, regards India as a mandatory part of most global companies’ plans. “What I have seen certainly in the past 5-10 years,” Debet says, “is that India is more often coming up as a place of counter-opportunity and being China Plus One in its own right. Many more international companies would say, ‘we can have an India base also to supply other regions, be it the Middle East, be it East Asia. Faceless customs has made an enormous difference in India.” None of this of course should be taken for granted. India needs deep structural reforms. Workforce productivity remains low. Skillsets vary: of the roughly six lakh engineers India produces a year, only the top 20 per cent – around 1.20 lakh – are world-class. Upskilling is crucial. So is setting a higher budget for research and development (R&D). Private sector companies in particular must enhance their R&D spends. A $30 trillion economy by 2047, as Niti Aayog’s blueprint envisages, would finally fulfil the tryst with destiny that India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, promised India in 1947. China and US Where will the Chinese and United States economies be in 2047? Hard to say but with China’s long-term economic growth slowing down to three per cent a year and inflation at near zero, its economy could stutter. In 2023, China’s GDP is estimated at just over $17 trillion. By 2047, at a three per cent average annual growth rate, it will barely double in 24 years to $34 trillion. India, at $30 trillion will be visible in its tail lights, a fact Chinese political leaders are keenly aware of. Hence Beijing’s bellicosity against a rival it mistakenly thought it had left far behind. China’s rapidly ageing, homogenous Han ethnic workforce will be a millstone around its neck. The US has fewer worries. Its hetrogenous population, flexible immigration policies and high fertility rates will ensure a relatively young, dynamic workforce. Even with average annual nominal GDP growth at three per cent and with the dollar as global reserve currency, America’s 2023 GDP of $23 trillion will double in 24 years to $46 trillion, maintaining its lead over China. India needs deep structural reforms. Workforce productivity remains low. Skillsets vary: of the roughly six lakh engineers India produces a year, only the top 20 per cent – around 1.20 lakh – are world-class Photograph by Yogendras31

22 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 OST ELSEWHERE will not understand why we in Delhi/ NCR now celebrate on days when the air quality is certified as “Very Poor”. Like much else in life, joy is based on comparisons: the Air Quality Index (AQI) at this level is better than “Severe” and “Very Severe”, two even worse categories which have been frequent enough to cause widespread alarm. Yet, every breath you take is poison: data shows that the carbon monoxide level is 70 times higher than the safe limit (Gurgaon, November 8; CPCB data). Doctors and hospitals report big increases in cases related to respiratory problems. Not only are millions personally affected, but industry suffers losses due to health-related absenteeism and healthcare costs. In keeping with the yearly routine, Delhi is witnessing all the usual responses: expressions of dismay, promises of strong action, bans on various activities, and buckpassing supplemented by political blame games. Schools are being closed; another yearly routine that may as well be built into the future academic calendar as a “pollution break”, rather than positioning it as a winter break. A whole host of other measures are also EVERY BREATH YOU TAKE M COLUMN now standard procedures: water spraying and sweeping of streets, threats of strict enforcement followed by challans for violators of restrictions and bans, encouraging work-from-home, greater frequency of metro trains, etc. What impact these have is a matter of continuing dispute, as is the relative importance of each source of pollution. For example, the contribution of stubble burning to NCR’s pollution levels is a matter of on-going contention, driven more by political considerations rather than convincing research or hard data. Rigorous research on the benefits of the “odd-even rule” for cars seems scarce, as are studies on the contribution of two-wheelers. BANS AND BANALITIES Meanwhile, everyone – from courts, to governments in the states and Centre, to pollution control agencies and green tribunals – is in the fray, making rules and enforcing bans. Knee-jerk and hare-brained schemes are suggested, like the proposal (as per media reports) to ban taxies from entering Delhi. In fact, they are minimum polluters, since existing laws require them to run on clean fuel (CNG) or batteries. Banning them means their replacement by private cars running on petrol or diesel, resulting in increased pollution. The ban on construction certainly abates dust pollution, but also causes collateral damage: daily-wage labourers lose their only source of income, forcing them – mostly migrants – to go back home. Re-mobilising these workers when the ban is lifted is a challenge for contractors, causing a further setback to construction schedules. Pollution due to stubble burning is sought to be controlled by strict enforcement and fines. However, the root cause remains: the perverse incentive to grow paddy (a crop unsuitable to Punjab, the main source of farm fires) by providing free water and electricity, and the lure of large (and assured) profits through a high minimum support price. Since this well-known systemic error defies correction, an alternative By Kiran Karnik n KIRAN’S KONTRARIAN KORNER n

24 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 Kiran Karnik loves to think in tongue-in-cheek ways, with no maliciousness or offence intended. At other times, he is a public policy analyst and author. His latest book is Decisive Decade: India 2030 Gazelle or Hippo (Rupa, 2021) is an attractive MSP for stubble. This may change farmer behaviour and end pollution from farm fires. Within the NCR cities, walking and cycling are actively – if unintentionally – discouraged as is evident from the terrible state of pavements and non-existent cycle lanes. In the rare cases where these exist and are in good shape, they are used by motorcycles and autorickshaws (sometimes, even cars), endangering pedestrians and cyclists. Surely, the authorities are aware of this? The attitude, however, is best exemplified by the fate of the bus rapid transit (BRT) system in Delhi. Instead of improving services and solving problems to popularise this ideal form of public transport, the lanes reserved for this were dismantled under pressure from the automobile lobby. The result: slower and inefficient bus services (already suffering from neglect and low investment) and an incentive to automobiles. The priority to automobiles is evident from proud announcements of long “signal-free stretches”, involving huge expenditure on flyovers and under-passes. However, there is neither interest nor funding for pedestrian skywalks, crossings, or wellmaintained footpaths. DUST TO DUST ... Simultaneously, trees (major carbon sinks) are being mercilessly cut down: legally, for everwider roads (another perverse incentive, which promotes the use of cars); and – often illegally – for farm-houses and villas. States like Haryana – despite a choking Gurgaon – are fighting court cases to throw open forest land for more construction! Between apparent voter apathy on this issue and the absence of a political party which espouses the cause of the environment, the leaders do not seem to bother. Where is India’s version of the German Green Party? Sadly, big industry too – which should have shown some degree of enlightenment – is complicit. In states where they ride roughshod over local opposition and environmental concerns, some NGOs do stand up. Unfortunately, these are branded “anti-development” and are themselves under attack. Yet, as we bemoan and suffer the pollution problem, one might note a few advantages. Smokers can now save on buying cigarettes, since research shows that our pollution levels are equivalent to smoking 34 cigarettes a day. Pollutionlinked health issues are providing a big boost each year to the pharma industry, chemists, doctors, and hospitals. Those resisting the trend of “at least three days in office” can now continue to wear shorts and work from home, even as they save on petrol. Environmentalists become stars on TV, which itself gets a boost in TRPs by sensational pollution news, now that daily Gazan fatality figures have become as routine as “daring Israeli raids”. There is also the added advantage of using last year’s footage. School children are happy with the additional holidays. All in all, pollution has its pluses! Meanwhile, it looks like “Poor” will for long seem like an A grade in the region’s pollution report card! Yet, as we bemoan and suffer the pollution problem, one might note a few advantages. Smokers can now save on buying cigarettes, since research shows that our pollution levels are equivalent to smoking 34 cigarettes a day. Pollution-linked health issues are providing a big boost each year to the pharma industry, chemists, doctors, and hospitals Photograph by MaxGoth COLUMN n KIRAN’S KONTRARIAN KORNER n

SUSTAINABILITY Special DECEMBER 30, 2023 India’s Net Zero Journey Strides In-depths On Major Outcomes From COP28 Regular Features & Columns Opinion Articles From Industry Leaders Issue Highlights Block your pages... Ensure Your Brand’s Presence in this Special Issue!!! Aparna Sengupta, [email protected], +91 9958000128 Anjeet Trivedi, [email protected], +91 9818122217 Ravi Khatri, [email protected], +91 9891315715 CS Rajaraman, [email protected], +91 9342262859 Somyajit Sengupta, [email protected], +91 9818247444 Kiran Dedhia, [email protected], +91 9833399009 Sajjad Mohmmad, [email protected], +91 9911855935 Shruti Arora, [email protected], +91 7982628913 Deepak Bhatt, [email protected], +91 9429423232 Faizuz Ahamed, +91 9820668333, [email protected] Santosh B Singh, +91 9820129879, [email protected] fifffflffiflfflffifflffffl flflff  For Editorial: Noor Fathima Warsia, [email protected]

26 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 I N INDIA’S COMPLEX and intricate economic landscape, economically underprivileged borrowers often find themselves on the fringe, unnoticed and ignored. Defaulting on loans has dire consequences for the middle income and the likes. They are banished from the formal financial system. Social & Economic Cost of Exclusion – High and Generational: Two-thirds of the Indian economy is consumption-led and thrives on its extensive network of middle-income consumers. Most borrow to ‘move up’ the socio-economic pyramid. They make significant contributions to the consumption ecosystem. They face punitive measures when they default, irrevocably altering their lives. A Crux study highlights that every fourth borrower is denied a loan owing to poor credit ratings; only one in ten can avail of unsecured and collateralfree loans. Exclusion from the financial system perpetuates poverty, reverses the path to social mobility, and makes it exceedingly challenging to break free from the vicious cycle of destitution. The consequences of this exclusion ripple through the broader economy. A robust economy requires all its components to function harmoniously. It is crucial to elucidate how these loans can be instruBy Vikas Singh The author is an economist and columnist mental in recovering from financial setbacks. A Crux study underscores that excluding a substantial portion of borrowers sets off a domino effect that ultimately affects the nation’s overall financial well-being. Advanced tools and data analytics are empowering: Lending institutions today have the remarkable opportunity, and responsibility to leverage advanced mechanisms, state-of-theart tools, and data analytics to evaluate risk with unprecedented accuracy. This empowers them to move away from the outdated practice of categorically excluding individuals who have experienced past defaults. Lenders should move beyond income and credit history to make informed decisions. Analysing various parameters, intertwining contextual and relevant aspects pivoted on income and credit history can bring in many ‘denied’ individuals into the financial fold. Financial institutions can delve deeply into borrowers’ financial histories, meticulously evaluate their repayment capabilities, and provide tailor-made solutions. Credit score may hide more than it reveals: While the Credit Information Bureau of India Limited (CIBIL) score has played a pivotal role in assessing creditworthiness, it may not be the universal remedy for India’s diverse landscape. The CIBIL and its ilk often overlook contextual factors that can significantly affect repayment capacity, including employment history, family background, and other socio-economic indicators. The lenders must embrace and adopt a multifaceted approach A Crux study underscores that excluding a substantial portion of borrowers sets off a domino effect that affects the nation’s overall financial well-being SECOND CHANCES: UNLEASHING ECONOMIC POTENTIAL, FOSTERING INCLUSION COLUMN

16 December 2023 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 27 communities. The Crux study highlights that financial education, communitybased lending, and self-help groups (SHGs) have empowered women and marginalised communities, offering individuals an agency to help them meet their economic destinies. Equitable and sustainable development: The Crux study emphasises the need for regulatory bodies to strike a judicious balance between consumer protection and the promotion of financial inclusion. Supporting the underprivileged and fostering financial inclusion can contribute to the broader agenda of equitable and sustainable development, the study concludes. The government’s role in promoting financial literacy and incentivising financial institutions to adopt a more comprehensive approach to lending cannot be underscored enough. The time has come for the policymakers, particularly the regulators, to nudge, goad, and steer the lending institutions to recalibrate their strategies. India’s economic landscape stands on the threshold of a transformation that recognises the significance of offering second chances to individuals who have faltered in loan repayment. While the credit scores have marked a significant stride forward, it is imperative to explore alternative mechanisms that consider a broader spectrum of factors when assessing creditworthiness. This will ease the path for every individual, particularly those who have stumbled on their financial journey, to afford and exploit an equitable opportunity for economic success. Policymakers must recognise and appreciate that offering these individuals a second chance is not merely an act of compassion, but a pragmatic approach that can invigorate our economy. This will also ensure that the Indian economic tapestry encompasses everyone, and in doing so, paves the way for a more equitable and prosperous India. that transcends conventional credit scoring that can cultivate an ecosystem that not only empowers individuals but also fortifies their economic future. A potential, even a pragmatic solution, may be to permit family members to join the defaulter as a co-borrower. This approach takes into account the collective creditworthiness of the family, potentially enabling a defaulter to secure a loan by involving financially responsible family members. This not only offers a second chance but also nurtures financial responsibility within families. To enhance lending inclusivity, the regulator can play a pivotal role. It should incentivise financial institutions to embrace a more comprehensive approach to credit assessment, including factors like employment history, stability, and other socioeconomic indicators as crucial determinants of repayment capacity. Technology, regulatory framework and mindset change key to inclusion: Initiatives such as Jan Dhan Yojana, Mudra Yojana, and Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana have been instrumental in extending access to banking services, credit, and housing for the underprivileged. Similarly, the emergence of ‘Small Finance Banks’ and ‘Payment Banks’ has expanded the horizon to the underserved and unserved and precisely those who have historically faced barriers to accessing credit. Advancements in technology, particularly the ascendancy of digital payments and mobile banking, have made financial services more accessible to remote and underserved areas. Lenders must embrace technology to further bridge the accessibility and serve the underprivileged. Microfinance institutions (MFIs) have emerged as formidable actors in reaching out to impoverished and marginalised sections of society. The MFIs have generated numerous success stories, illustrating how microloans have empowered individuals to establish small businesses, generate income, and free themselves from the clutches of poverty. These institutions must be encouraged, equally incentivised to expand. Financial literacy programmes and credit counselling are vital for informed financial decision-making, debt management, and bolstering creditworthiness. Successful programmes have positively impacted Photographs by Movinglines Studio

28 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 I n our modern, hyperconnected world, data has become the lifeblood of businesses, guiding decisions, and shaping strategies. The continual digitisation of our society has given birth to an unprecedented surge of data, generated every fraction of a second. A Critical Tool Every digital action, be it a click, a purchase, or even a simple “like”— adds to this ever-growing reservoir. As of 2022, 2.5 quintillion bytes of data is generated every day. This equates to roughly 28,935 terabytes of data every second! Amidst this vast expanse of information, data analytics has emerged as a critical tool, completely redefining the business landscape. In traditional business, decisions often rested on periodical reviews and yearly audits. However, businesses today demand real-time decision-making. The rapid pace of market changes and consumer preferences makes it necessary for a business model that is not only responsive but also multi-billion dollar companies like Spotify and Airbnb. Spotify uses data analytics to dissect song components, identifying musical attributes like tempo, key, and valence, which then allows them to craft the eerily accurate “Discover Weekly” playlists that you may be familiar with; this feature introduces users to new songs that feel uncannily familiar. Airbnb on the other hand, uses data analytics to adjust property prices in real-time, considering factors like local events, historical booking rates, and competitor prices, ensuring hosts maximise their revenue while maintaining competitive rates for their guests. Though these examples sound impressive, they merely scratch the surface of the seismic shift data analytics is causing across the business spectrum. The true depth of its influence remains largely untapped. A Revolution Data analytics is not just a business tool; it’s a revolution. A revolution that’s redefining business paradigms, strategies, and operations. As more businesses weave data into their foundational processes, they unlock new pinnacles of efficiency, innovation, and customer delight. In this brave new world of business, data isn’t just valuable; it’s invaluable. Indeed, if the business world were an alchemist’s den, data would be its philosopher’s stone. predictive. Data analytics has emerged as an absolute game-changer in this domain. It sifts through vast datasets, extracting actionable insights that allow businesses to tweak their strategies in tune with real-time market pulse. A Crystal Ball No longer is data just a reflection of the present; it’s a crystal ball, offering glimpses of future trajectories. In healthcare, it aids in predicting outbreaks and personalising patient care. In finance, it assists in detecting fraudulent activities and optimising investment strategies. Retailers use it to understand buying habits and optimise inventory, the transportation sector harnesses it to improve route efficiency and reduce costs and in the education sector it enhances personalised learning, optimises resource planning, and drives informed decisionmaking for improved student outcomes. Creative Applications Some creative applications of data analytics are also evident in leading key out he gn, to ate ent ect ass ver a's y a big ore for out to ure d a as of nd ese ies in ent an nd Data Analytics: Transforming Business Every digital action, be it a click, a purchase, or even a simple “like”— adds to the ever-growing reservoir of data. As of 2022, 2.5 quintillion bytes of data is generated every day. This equates to roughly 28,935 terabytes of data every second! By Nakul Basani, Executive Director (Operations), Acharya Bangalore B-School Mr. Nakul Basani, Executive Director (Operations), Acharya Bangalore B-School

30 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 Sustainable Agriculture for the Future: Insights from India’s G20 NDIA’S CONCERTED EFFORTS towards achieving zero hunger and prioritising food security through the social protection system have only enhanced since the Covid -19 pandemic. Working towards ensuring that all people, at all times, have access to basic food that is nutritious and essential for an active and healthy life, India, through its food security systems, has made efforts to address the multidimensional aspects of hunger. This is particularly evident through schemes like public distribution systems, mid-day meal schemes, maternity entitlements, active efforts towards mainstreaming fortified foods, and national nutrition policy that target the issue of hunger and malnutrition, along with all other deprivations that intensify the problem at hand. India had actively engaged for 2023 to be declared as the International Year of Millets (IYOM) in the pursuit of promoting millets in diets as a source of nutrition. Even before India took over the G20 Presidency, the country volunteered to take forward the dialogue and processes in connection with the UN Food Systems Summit (2021), dealing with advancing equitable livelihoods for the UN Food System Summit 2021. During the G20 presidency, India, in ARTHSASTRA by Amit Kapoor & Hari Menon I its agriculture working group, pursued priorities aligned with its goal of achieving zero hunger. The four priorities were: u food security and nutrition, v sustainable agriculture with climatesmart approach, w inclusive agri value chains and food systems and x digitalisation for agriculture transformation. The four priorities were seen as pillars that together foster means to achieving food security through climate-sustainable and resilient approaches, especially within the agri-sector. The G20 New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration called for Eliminating Hunger as a top priority; the leaders committed to accelerating innoAmit Kapoor Hari Menon

16 December 2023 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 31 vations and investments in increasing agricultural productivity along with reducing food loss and waste in order to build more sustainable and climate-resilient agriculture and food systems. Further, strengthening research and development on climate-sustainable and nutritiously diverse grains like millets was acknowledged as critical, given the adverse impacts of climate change. Apart from this, the G20 Deccan High-Level Principles on Food Security and Nutrition and the Millets and other Ancient Grains International Research Initiative (MAHARISHI) were also adopted as part of the 118 documents that were adopted and annexed with the Declaration. As per FAO, the agri-sector remains a high-emission sector, with agri-food systems accounting for nearly 31 per cent of emissions in 2020. Agriculture contributes to climate change and must be an integral part of the global response to global warming. Therefore, adaptation and adaptation-led mitigation practices in this sector are necessary for reducing the adverse effects of climate change and ensuring food security. As pushed by India during its agriculture negotiations, climate-smart approaches address tradeoffs across economic and environmental goals, thereby minimising emissions per unit of output. Climate-smart agriculture aims to enhance food security and incomes and foster resilience sustainably. Sustainable agriculture also includes making agri-value chains sustainable and resilient. These would include developing insurance programmes and embedding agricultural risk management tools, establishing early warning and market information systems, developing agricultural programmes and promoting crop diversification, promoting and incentivising agricultural productions for the local market and building food systems at local levels. Not only does this investment serve as a linchpin for stimulating economic growth, but it also stands as a potent weapon in the fight against global poverty. Pursuing sustainable agriculture and food systems and mainstreaming it through multilateral forums like G20 has helped India achieve what stands to benefit consumers and producers. In the light of the need to raise productivity while moving towards food systems that are sustainable environmentally, economically and socially and that support quality and diverse diets, the G20 has achieved a consensus on increasing responsible investment in food systems, enhancing social safety nets and incentives for farmers to shift to sustainable agriculture practices and increasing productivity sustainably to ensure unimpeded food supply. In particular, the presidency has motivated a dialogue on climate-smart approaches for sustainable agriculture. Developing crop varieties that are more resistant to pests, diseases, drought, water logging, and salinity is also connected to agriculture conservation. The agriculture sector, comprising various plant and animal species, is prone to imbalances in the over-arching one-earth one-health. It has also been highlighted that the existing climate-smart practices and emerging agroecological and environment-friendly approaches could be scaled up with significant investments in building the knowledge base, developing technology and implementing non-degrading and resource-conserving production systems. Additionally, it is equally important to ensure that demand-side factors that emanate from consumers are viable long-term and support green agriculture. Changing lifestyles lead to demands for customised diets, many of which adversely impact agri-systems. Keeping this in mind, emphasis should be on two aspects – introducing diverse sources of nutrition through local and traditional crops that often remain underutilised, like millets, and ensuring that the crops don’t lay undue disadvantage on food systems. Millets are nutrient-rich crops exceptionally well suited to dry climatic conditions. In this regard, the presidency brought consensus on broader dissemination of research related to millets. These efforts have successfully translated India’s domestic importance to the agri sector into substantive gains at a multilateral level through its call for urgent and imminent action for sustainable agriculture. Millets are nutrient-rich crops exceptionally well suited to dry climatic conditions. In this regard the presidency brought consensus on broader dissemination of research related to millets Amit Kapoor is Chair, Institute for Competitiveness, India and Lecturer, USATMC, Stanford University (X: @kautiliya) Hari Menon is director, India Country Office, BMGF Photograph by Bhati Gajendra

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34 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 ECENT SURVEYS INDICATE that marketing has increased its use of predictive analytics since businesses have realised its significance. To remain competitive in a dynamic environment, organisations employ data analysis to forecast forthcoming changes. Notwithstanding its widespread usage, there exists a potential for it to impose an undue burden on users. According to a report by Markets and Markets, with a CAGR of approximately 21 per cent, the global market for predictive analytics will reach nearly $23.9 billion by 2027. Predictive analytics in marketing entails the implementation of machine learning, predictive modelling, and predictive targeting concepts in order to forecast campaign outcomes, user behaviour, and market trends. Organisations implement predictive analytics in order to identify potential hazards, optimise processes, and reveal latent prospects that may result in expansion and achievement. Predictive analytics forecasts future shifts by utilising location data, contextual data, first-party data, weather data, real-time data, and historical data. How accurate is predictive analysis? Companies have access to vast amounts of data that can be used for predictive modelling, so questioning the reliability of these models beR fore fully understanding how they operate is illogical. Predictive analytics decisions start and end with data. Therefore, the only way to guarantee the precision of predictive analysis is to investigate the data collection processes, data quality, and whether or not cleaned data is being used in the modelling. Before marketers and CEOs can put their faith in the recommendations made by systems associated with predictive analytics, CDOs and CIOs must ensure that the data has been thoroughly cleaned. Another important factor in the accuracy of predictive analytics is that it is based on the assumption that future outcomes will be similar to those in the past. The passage of time is the primary culprit in the fallacy of assumptions. If the model was developed too far in the past, its predictions will be off. Also, if an essential variable is missing from the model and has undergone significant change over time, the assumption might not be valid. Alongside the correct data and statistical model, the accuracy of assumptions is a critical component of a predictive model; therefore, neither the organisation nor the analysts can afford to disregard them. Challenges in Predictive Analytics Accurate data acquisition Adding useful information to these models improves their performance. Predictive Analysis – A Must to Have in Every Martech Stack MARKETING AND ADVERTISING AmitScope Photograph by Phonlamai

16 December 2023 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 35 The author is Global Head, Marketing Demand Centre, TCS An organisation’s likelihood of achieving the desired outcome is diminished if incomplete or erroneous data is captured or transmitted. To avoid this issue, it is recommended to set up robust processes around quality assurance and data collection. Developing an effective strategic approach The majority of organisations lack knowledge of predictive analytics and attempt to implement it without well-defined business objectives and goals. To effectively utilise this technology, they must first identify the problems they hope to solve. Pilot research and discussions with predictive analytics vendors are necessary to ensure that the organisations are selecting the most suitable software to support their initiatives. Incorporating automation Before moving from Level A to Level B in most data analytics programmes, businesses need to follow a series of steps, including initial planning, data cleaning, and full model deployment. Due to the potentially farreaching consequences of even a single execution error, this procedure is inherently time-consuming and error-prone. In order to mitigate this concern, it is preferable for the organisation to implement a system that automates a portion of these processes, thereby decreasing the overall number of manual steps required. Predictive Analysis is Beneficial When Used Correctly In comparison to alternative approaches, predictive analytics is data-centric. It enables businesses to concentrate more on new opportunities to maintain longterm relationships with customers and enhance their products in response to their needs. With the help of predictive analytics solutions, businesses will be able to monitor customer click-through behaviour, product preferences, and purchase histories in real time. Moreover, when combined with ML, it can offer the most relevant outcomes and recommendations to ecommerce and retail users. However, not all customers will act in the same way when shopping online; their actions will vary depending on their individual preferences and online habits. Through the use of this technology, shoppers will be able to have more tailored shopping experiences based on their preferences and responses to a variety of variables. No matter how superior machines become, they will never be able to react to illogical commands. In addition, machines will not be able to comprehend the motivations behind people’s desires for certain services, a crucial component of any advertising strategy. Even though machines will be able to improve the efficiency, speed, and accuracy of marketing automation and predictive analytics in the future, they will still require human input from people who can think clearly and respond appropriately. Photograph by Ellasot919 Predictive analytics is becoming a prominent issue in the analytics environment as marketers increasingly recognise that it allows them to decrease risks, make informed decisions, and offer distinct consumer experiences. When correctly implemented, the business benefits can be significant. However, there are several strategic risks to consider

36 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 ICHARD BRANSON tells the story of something that happened when he was four years old. He and his mom were on their way to his grandma’s home. They were still about three miles away, and he was restless, throwing a tantrum and getting angry for no good reason. His mom told him to get off the car – and find his way to her home. Branson the inspirational, trail-blazing CEO of Virgin, attributes his adventurous spirit and his fearless risk-taking to the early influence of his mother. “My mother wanted me to stand on my own two feet, and not be mollycoddled!” he recalls. And that made all the difference. We live in a world where leaders and organisations are constantly grappling with the challenge of growing leaders. Maybe we can all take a leaf out of Mrs Branson’s book. Here then are three lessons: u Call out bad behaviour, early. Great organisations spell out the values they hold dear. And any violation is dealt with swiftly. Branson’s mom didn’t want her son to be a petulant, spoilt brat. So, when he misbehaved in the backseat of the car, the reprimand was swift. She pushed him out and asked him to find his own way. Young managers in their formative years need to get that rap on the knuckles if they do something that’s not right. If the organisation turns a blind eye, and tolerates it, they will think it’s okay to do the wrong thing. That can come back to bite them later. And as the years roll by, changing behaviour becomes hard. Very hard. v Push them out of their comfort zone. Don’t hesitate to throw young leaders into the deep end. Struggling to survive, not knowing what to do, and even the occasional failure will make them stronger leaders. Help them overcome their fear of failure. The earlier they learn that it is okay to fail, the better they will be at handling the failures they are bound to encounter in their careers. Resist the temptation to spoon feed your future leaders. Throw a problem at them and let them figure a way out. As a four-year-old, Richard overcame the fear of getting lost and found his way. No surprise then that the grown-up Branson is never shy of taking risks, foraying into new businesses and even planning inter-galactic ventures. As his mom might tell you, don’t mollycoddle your leaders. w Let them know you believe in them. As a kid, Richard Branson had dyslexia, and didn’t get great grades in school. But his mom always believed her little fellow was special. That he would do something big. So, she pushed him and challenged him, all the time believing in his ability to figure things out, persevere, and come out winning. And that’s so powerful. Most of us owe whatever little we may have achieved in our lives to people who believed in us – even when we ourselves didn’t. Having a mother-figure who’s got your back, and willing you to take that leap can be just the tonic young leaders need to grow to their full potential. In truly great companies, leaders across the organisation take on the responsibility of playing the role that Branson’s mom did. Next time you see a young leader doing the wrong thing, think of Branson’s mother. Tell him to go take a walk. A Mom’s Recipe for Leadership R PI TALKIES Prakash Iyer is an author, speaker and leadership coach and former MD of Kimberly Clark Lever

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38 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 N ENGINEER turned IT specialist, Shugan Jain had a successful professional career. At 60, with children settled overseas, he had an inner calling to become self-reliant and also empower others. He gave up all economic activities; started learning about the true meaning of self-reliance; went back to school for MA and PHD degrees to study the Thought Process of Indians – particularly Jains – and started using ‘education’ as a vehicle to achieve his mission. In 2005, he started the International School for Jain Studies –ISJS, (www.isjs. in ) to promote values of equality, equanimity, non-violence, pluralism and giving/sharing – pillars to be self-reliant and helping others minimise their conflicts and sufferings. The idea behind ISJS was to train researchers and faculty from American universities so that they could promote these further. He invited them to India for residential and experiential summer schools and trained over 1,000 scholars till 2022. Jain philosophy is now being taught by ISJS alumni in over 50 universities of America, Europe, Asia and Africa. Current enrollment to these programmes is about 1,000 annually with growing movements like plant-based food and waste minimisation for environment protection with emphasis on education for an attitudinal change to study and work rather than seek charity, co-existence for sustainable peace and development. In 2012, he developed a programme ‘Teachers for Peace’ (TFP) for K-12 schools in the USA with the objective to prepare a cadre of teachers who could learn these values – equanimity, non-violence, pluralism, giving/sharing – and use them to enhance learning, discipline and conflict resolution amongst schools in the USA. Altogether 220 teachers have been trained under this programme. Simultaneously, he adopted four heritage schools in Old Delhi, catering to over 2,000 students, including his own alma mater. Over time these schools started decaying and by 2000, almost 100 per cent of the students (boys and girls) were coming from families at the bottom of the social pyramid. As a ‘change agent’ Shugan took several steps like: l (a) scientific assessment of the schools through a professional consultancy l (b) intensive teachers’ training based on TFP l (c) effective O&M l (d) attitudinal changes of the management towards EWS students by inducting educationists on the school boards l(e) based on the impact of ‘Unto the Last’ by Ruskin and Antyodaya concept in Jainism, he initiated activities to develop a feeling of pride and self confidence amongst students and teachers to inculcate thinking for ‘making a difference in the life of the weakest students’ l (f) enhanced interaction with the government to resolve outstanding issues of teachers and l (g) aroused a ‘sense of belonging’ amongst the rich alumni to contribute financially. As a result of his painstaking efforts, there was significant upgradation of the classrooms, computer labs, library and laboratories as well as extracurricular activities, health checkups and career-oriented sessions. Staff rooms were made pleasant and friendly places. He also developed a Value Education Programme, which is now being taught in many other schools all over India. The results are amazing as seen in better attendance, academic and cultural attainments of students, willingness of teachers to give more at the two main schools with 1,600 students. Being Aided Schools, both are running under strict government rules. Today these schools have become perhaps the finest in their areas and students are winning national and international awards and many are pursuing higher education in colleges in Delhi. A Inclusivity By Krishan Kalra Column Education is a major contributor leading to lack of inclusivity. Thankfully there are many unsung heroes doing valuable work for narrowing the gap – Shugan Jain (83) is an eminent example The author is member, Managing Committee, Indian Cancer Society Delhi and former member Governing Council, Rajiv Gandhi Cancer Institute & Research Centre. He is past president of the All India Management Association An Agent of Change

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40 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 Buoyed by robust fundamentals, ample forex reserves and inflation control measures, India’s economy is in for sustained growth despite rural demand staying low By Ashish Sinha IN DEPTH MANUFACTURING NDIA’S ECONOMY continues to be an oasis of growth in a troubled world. Save for the occasional bump, all the economic engines are powering ahead smoothly along the growth path. A reaffirmation of the robustness of the economic activity in the country this time has come in the form of two reports that see manufacturing growth and investments picking up further after the Diwali festivities. The writing on the wall is already there. A recent survey of 380 manufacturers that together account for about Rs 4.8 lakh crore in sales showed a roGALORE I GLAD TIDINGS

16 December 2023 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 41 Piyush Goyal, Minister of Commerce & Industry bust 74 per cent capacity utilisation and improved future investment outlook during the second quarter that ended on September 30. The survey findings have led experts and economists to anticipate similar capacity utilisation during the remaining two quarters. They expect demand growth across sectors. Moody’s Investor Services in its report has maintained India’s economic growth at a stellar 6.7 per cent for 2023. This steadfast projection is a testament to the nation’s extraordinary resilience in the face of a global slowdown, powered by robust domestic demand. Simultaneously, a report by Morgan to ample reserves, robust domestic growth and well-contained inflationary pressures. A robust domestic demand along with manufacturing and services activity aided growth during the quarter. “High-frequency indicators show that the economy’s strong Q2 momentum carried into Q3. Robust goods and services tax collections, surging auto sales, rising consumer optimism and doubledigit credit growth suggest urban consumption demand will likely remain resilient amid the ongoing festive season,” the Moody’s report said. As per the latest data on automotive sales released by the Federation of Automobiles Dealers Association, on a month-on-month basis auto retail flourished, achieving a 13 per cent increase, with contributions from all categories. Two-wheelers, three-wheelers, passenger vehicles, tractors, and commercial vehicles expanded by 15 per cent, 2 per cent, 7 per cent, 15 per cent, and 10 per cent, respectively, underscoring the sector’s robust growth momentum. Looking back at the growth parameters over the past two months, D.K. Srivastava, Chief Policy Advisor, EY India says, “Reflecting a sustained expansion in manufacturing and a strong increase in services, the composite PMI Stanley Research has added to the optimism by its assertion that it expects India’s economy to grow at 6.5 per cent in FY 2024 and 2025. The report attributes this positive outlook to India’s formidable domestic fundamentals. The Moody’s report further highlights the commendable manoeuvrability of the central bank (RBI) in calibrating monetary policy, thanks Photograph by PIB Photograph by Zhuzhu

42 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 Output Index increased from 60.9 in August 2023 to 61 in September 2023. The September 2023 level was among the strongest rates of expansion in just under 13 years.” Driven largely by domestic demand, India would easily confirm its position as a global growth leader, with its growth outpacing that of other large economies as these continue to combat inflation through higher interest rates, he adds. Push for Local Manufacture In August, Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal called upon the domestic industry to accelerate production activities and contribute substantively to the establishment of India as a preeminent global manufacturing hub. Goyal emphasised the imperative for the industry to proactively enhance production capabilities, stating, “The industry must expedite production activities and actively contribute to positioning India as a global manufacturing hub.” Subsequently, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry conducted a comprehensive quarterly survey of manufacturers, elucidating the sector’s positive outlook. It disclosed that the manufacturing domain foresees a sustained surge in economic activity and heightened investments throughout the remaining two quarters of the ongoing financial year. In a recent development earlier this month, semiconductor giant Intel announced its strategic collaboration with eight local companies to expedite the localisation of manufacturing processes in India. This aligns with the broader industry trend of fostering indigenous manufacturing capabilities. Furthermore, Fitch Ratings, in its latest report, has projected a noteworthy surge of approximately 7 per cent in India’s power demand for the fiscal year concluding in March 2024 (FY24), propelled by the robust momentum in industrial activities. Reports circulating suggest a significant policy initiative on the horizon, with the central government contemplating the provision of substantial incentives totalling approximately Rs 18,000 crore. This initiative aims to galvanise local manufacturing across six pivotal sectors, forming an integral part of the ambitious productionlinked incentive scheme. Sources within the government say that a formal announcement detailing these incentives is imminent. The strategic allocation of these incentives underscores the government’s commitment to fortify the manufacturing landscape and stimulate economic growth, aligning with broader objectives of self-reliance and global competitiveness. The forthcoming formal announcement is anticipated to provide comprehensive details on the scope, eligibility criteria, and disbursement mechanisms of these incentives, signaling a proactive governmental stance in bolstering the manufacturing sector’s pivotal role in India’s economic trajectory. Concern Over Rural Demand Interestingly, while demand in urban areas has shown growth, rural demand has been tepid due to the uneven monsoons and slow recovery after the pandemic. However, this is expected to improve in the coming quarters. Experts say the global trade has slowed down due to persistent inflation and tighter monetary policy stance adopted by major global economies. Conflicts in Ukraine and Israel have sent oil prices higher, not only increasing inflation but also resulting in higher import bills, leading to higher fiscal deficit and balance of trade challenges. “Consumption growth post pandemic has been mixed, with slow recovery in rural demand,” Morgan Stanley’s report stated. “In our view, this reflects a shift in consumption towards services, while the share of goods in wallet share has moderated, and low income segments / rural households’ balance sheets are in the process of healing,” it added. India’s domestic demand, especially in the rural regions, has also remained weak largely on the back of uneven monsoons, even the FICCI survey of manufacturers showed. In fact, over 40 per cent respondents highlighted the tepid demand as a significant constraint to manufacturing. “Whether it is domestic demand or exports, this remains a major limiting factor,” the survey said, adding, “Some other constraints, though not major ones, are high raw material prices, increased cost of finance, logistics, and other supply chain disruptions are some of the major constraints which are affecting expansion plans of the respondents.” It will be interesting to observe how demand, supply and consumption drive the state of affairs in the next two quarters. But a lot hinges upon the success of the manufacturing sector. [email protected] IN DEPTH MANUFACTURING D.K. Srivastava, Chief Policy Advisor, EY India

44 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 N EARLY NOVEMBER, NASSCOM PRESIDENT Debjani Ghosh kicked off her keynote at an event with a video featuring Tesla’s Optimus Robots, walking and carrying out menial tasks against the possible backdrop of a Gigafactory. The subtext of this video in the keynote was clear: India harbours ambitions to rival the very best of deeptech endeavours. However, realising these aspirations demands robust support from stakeholders, including investors, policymakers, entrepreneurs and tech enthusiasts. Unfortunately, the current level of support is inadequate, leaving innovators to navigate the choppy waters of lacklustre funding and suboptimal policies – sometimes for years and even shut shop eventually. Deeptech Funding In India Consider Tamil Nadu-based startup Adiuvo Diagnostics, a company that is crafting a technology that excels in early disease detection. Boasting eight patents, both international and national, Adiuvo has pioneered Autofluorescence Imaging, a breakthrough method crucial for preventing amputations by detecting infections in wounds. The significance of this innovation becomes apparent in India, particularly in smaller towns and cities as even in the advanced stages of limb amputation, patients are often prescribed basic antibiotics like azithromycin without precise knowledge of the infection type. In the normal course of diagnosis, a doctor would collect a wound sample, send it to a microbiology lab, and await results, a process which takes 3-7 days to yield definitive outcomes, which often means lesser time for treatment in advanced stages of amputation. During the Nasscom event, Adiuvo Diagnostics Founder and MD Geethanjali Radhakrishnan noted that these results are only 53 per cent accurate and often identify commonly available bacteria. In contrast, Adiuvo’s handheld device swiftly captures approximately 15 multispectral images in under four seconds, using AI to predict the bacteria type in real time—all done noninvasively. Despite this scalable solution, Adiuvo has secured a mere $1 million I THE CONUNDRUM Indian tech startups have been hobbled by a sharp decline in funding this year. But particularly worrisome is the massive decline in deeptech funding. What is the way out? The Indian startup ecosystem boasts around 28,000 technology-focused startups and deeptech commands a noteworthy slice, constituting approximately 10-11 per cent IN DEPTH TECHNOLOGY By Rohit Chintapali

16 December 2023 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 45 in its eight years of existence. Radhakrishnan revealed a striking comparison, highlighting that a US-based company with similar technology garnered a staggering $100 million in grant funding alone. Similar is the case of Hyderabadbased deeptech startup Centella AI, which is looking to bring about 60 per cent reduction in drug discovery costs through its innovations. But it, too, has been able to raise just Rs 30 lakh in funding so far and the startup’s team has itself invested Rs 1 crore to build its product and IP. “The next task for us is to raise around $2 million, which we would utilise to strengthen our technology and asset pipeline in terms of targets and diseases we address,” says Riyaz Syed, Founder and Chief Scientist, Centella AI. Groundbreaking research-based technologies (deeptech) need a unique breed of funding imperative, referred to as “patient capital.” This type of investment is characterised by its willingness to wait for returns on investment (RoI) over an extended period, typically spanning 3-8 years. The rationale behind DEBJANI GHOSH, President, Nasscom "Indian deep tech entrepreneurship has absolutely nothing lacking when it comes to ambition and capabilities. Indian entrepreneurs, today, are ready to compete globally if they get the support that is needed" Deep Nishar, Managing Director, General Catalyst speaks with serial entrepreneur Mukesh Bansal at Nasscom Future Forge 2023 Photograph by Ritesh Sharma

46 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 this extended timeframe lies in the nature of such technologies, which necessarily take time to mature, identify viable business use cases, gain global adoption and generate revenue gradually. But venture capitalists show limited enthusiasm for investing in deeptech startups due to the extended RoI horizons associated with deeptech ventures. Government And Public Grants However, this is precisely where government and public grants play a pivotal role and they have had a significant impact on economies like the US. Centella AI, as previously mentioned, stands as a notable beneficiary of government support in India. However, the challenge lies in the scarcity of government and public grants, particularly when confronted with the needs of more than 3,100 deeptech startups in the country, all vying for support. “There is a problem there, in the sense that we don’t have enough grant money in India to go around. And even if there is, the quantum is much smaller,” said Ramkumar Narayanan, Chair at Nasscom deeptech council and VP Technology & Managing Director, VMware India. Nasscom, the non-profit technology industry association, according to Narayanan, is working with the 1901 1371 497 389513 397 340 1178 632 158 142 141 100 43 618 638 294 214 326 221 247 105 100 44 33 46 26 50 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 Seed - Stage Early- Stage Late- Stage Deeptech funding in the first 9 months of 2023 is down 66% as compared to the same period of 2022 AI-led startups in BFSI and enterprisetech raised more than 60% of the funding Total funding raised byvdeeptech startups for Q3 CY 2023 ( In $ million) Source: Nasscom 12% 32% 21% Q-o-Q increase in early-stage funding received by deetech startups Total funding received by enterprisetech startups, as compared to 6% in 2023 Total funding received by BFSI startups, as compared to 10% in 2023 Q3 2023 Deeptech funding highlights KRISHNAKUMAR NATARAJAN, Managing Partner at Mela Ventures “[..] what I keep telling my team is the Indian IT industry became $300 billion industry over 30 years. And I think, there's a real opportunity for DeepTech-based startups to create another $300 billion industry in the next 10 years” IN DEPTH TECHNOLOGY

48 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 another $300 billion industry in the next 10 years,” said Natarajan. Despite the substantial yearon-year (YoY) decline in deeptech funding in 2023, AI-led startups in BFSI and enterprisetech secured over 60 per cent of the funding in this category, underscoring the escalating interest among investors in AI. However, during another panel discussion at the Nasscom event, Deep Nishar, Managing Director at General Catalyst, pointed out that a significant number of Indian startups are not sufficiently delving into generative AI—an area currently drawing considerable attention from venture capitalists. BW Businessworld conducted a brief survey involving 10 venture capitalists and the unanimous consensus among them is that startups specialising in AI and generative AI within the deeptech domain are poised to attract funding. They opined that the trend will persist despite the challenging funding climate in the near-term, mainly because these startups would offer quicker return on investments. [email protected] government to formulate ways to channel disparate pools of money available in the Indian ecosystem to benefit the deeptech ecosystem. Narayanan told BW Businessworld that Nasscom wants to help 10,000 deeptech startups by 2030. During one of the panel discussions at Nasscom’s deeptech-focused November event, Krishnakumar Natarajan, Managing Partner at Mela Ventures, expressed a perspective divergent from the US approach of grants, aligning more with Israel’s model. “I’m more aligned to the approach of what Israel followed. Israel really gave a grant to anybody who has a great idea. You experiment with a grant and if it doesn’t work then you can go back to your job. I think innovation will happen when you support people in navigating through risks. I think the government needs to play a role like that,” he said. Natarajan further opined that in a resource-constrained economy like India, private capital will also play a pivotal role. He suggested encouraging private capital to establish numerous incubators, each focusing on specific, narrow niches—a strategy he believes would contribute significantly to nurturing innovation. The Dreaded ‘Winter’ The Indian startup ecosystem boasts around 28,000 technologyfocused startups and deeptech commands a noteworthy slice, constituting approximately 10-11 per cent. However, in the midst of the funding winter, the latest data exposes a troubling decline in funding for tech startups in India. The third quarter of 2023 saw a substantial drop in funding to $1.2 billion—a 20 per cent decrease from the preceding quarter and a remarkable 50 per cent plunge compared to the same period last year. Of particular alarm is the pronounced decline in deeptech funding during the first nine months of 2023, plummeting 66 per cent compared to funding levels observed in the corresponding period of 2022. But investors like Natarajan stay optimistic. “[..] what I keep telling my team is the Indian IT industry became $300 billion industry over 30 years. And I think, there’s a real opportunity for deeptech-based startups to create RAMKUMAR NARAYANAN,Chair at Nasscom deeptech council and VPTechnology & MD, VMware India “There is a problem there, in the sense that we don't have enough grant money in India to go around. And even if there is, the quantum is much smaller”

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50 | B W BUSINESSWORLD | 16 December 2023 By Team BW ‘Gujarat set to contribute more to national economy’ INTERVIEW In the run-up to the Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit 2024 Gujarat Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel talks to BW Businessworld. He opines that the state’s strong industrial infrastructure gives Gujarat an edge over other Indian states