Encyclopedia of sociology by Edgar F. Borgatta, Rhonda J. V. Montgomery (z-lib.org)

DEMOGRAPHIC METHODS

Complete Life Table* for the United States, 1996

Exact Age x 1qx x 1dx 1Lx Tx ex

0 .00732 100,000 732 99,370 7,611,825 76.1
53 99,240 7,512,455 75.7
1 .00054 99,268 40 99,193 7,413,215 74.7
31 99,158 7,314,022 73.7
2 .00040 99,215 26 99,130 7,214,864 72.8
23 99,106 7,115,734 71.8
3 .00031 99,175 21 99,084 7,016,628 70.8
19 99,064 6,917,544 69.8
4 .00026 99,144 18 99,046 6,818,480 68.8
15 99,029 6,719,434 67.8
5 .00023 99,118 14 99,014 6,620,405 66.9
.
6 .00021 99,095 . . . .
. . . .
7 .00020 99,074 . . .
2,940
8 .00018 99,055 3,043 47,668 411,547 8.4
3,139 44,676 363,879 7.9
9 .00016 99,037 3,225 41,586 319,203 7.4
3,300 38,403 277,617 6.9
10 .00014 99,022 33,629 35,141 239,214 6.5
204,073 204,073 6.1
.. .

.. .

.. .

80 .05967 49,276

81 .06566 46,336

82 .07250 43,293

83 .08033 40,154

84 .08936 36,929

85 (1.00000) 33,629

Table 2

NOTE: *This is technically an ‘‘interpolated life table’’ and not a complete life table based on single-year data.
SOURCE: This life table is available on the web at http://www.cdc.gov/nchswww/datawh/statab/unpubd/mortabs/lewk2.htm

describe the experience of an actual birth co- treats a population at a given point in time as a
hort—that is, a group of individuals who are born synthetic or hypothetical cohort. The major drawback
within a (narrowly) specified interval of time. If we of the period life table is that it refers to no
wished to portray the mortality history of the birth particular cohort of individuals. In an era of mor-
cohort of 2000, for example, we would have to wait tality rates declining at all ages, such a life table will
until the last individual of that cohort has died, or underestimate true life expectancy for any cohort.
beyond the year 2110, before we would be able to
calculate all of the values that comprise the life The most fundamental data that underlie the
table. In such a life table, called a generation or formation of a period life table are the number of
cohort life table, we can explicitly obtain the proba- deaths attributed to each age group in the popula-
bility of individuals surviving to a given age. As is tion for a particular calendar year (nDx), where x
intuitively clear, however, a generation life table is refers to the exact age at the beginning of the age
suitable primarily for historical analyses of cohorts interval and n is the width of that interval, and the
now extinct. Any generation life table that we number of individuals living at the midpoint of
could calculate would be very much out of date that year for each of those same age groups (nPx).
and would in no way approximate the present
mortality experience of a population. Thus, we To begin the life table’s construction, we take
realize the need for the period life table, which the ratio of these two sets of input data—nDx and
nPx—to form a series of age-specific death rates, or
nMx:

614

DEMOGRAPHIC METHODS

Abridged Life Table for the United States, 1996

Exact Age x nDx nPx nqx x ndx nLx Tx ex
(in 1,000s)
0 28,487 .00732 100,000 732 99,370 7,611,825 76.1
1 5,948 3,769 .00151 99,268 150 396,721 7,512,455 75.7
5 3,780 16,516 .00097 99,118 96 495,329 7,115,734 71.8
10 4,550 19,441 .00118 99,022 117 494,883 6,620,405 66.9
15 14,663 18,981 .00390 98,905 386 493,650 6,125,522 61.9
20 17,780 18,662 .00506 98,519 499 491,372 5,631,872 57.2
25 20,730 17,560 .00544 98,020 533 488,766 5,140,500 52.4
30 30,417 19,007 .00710 97,487 692 485,746 4,651,734 47.7
35 42,499 21,361 .00944 96,795 914 481,820 4,165,988 43.0
40 53,534 22,577 .01283 95,881 1,230 476,549 3,684,168 38.4
45 67,032 20,816 .01801 94,651 1,705 469,305 3,207,619 33.9
50 77,297 18,436 .02733 92,946 2,540 458,779 2,738,314 29.5
55 96,726 13,934 .04177 90,406 3,776 443,132 2,279,535 25.2
60 136,999 11,362 .06649 86,630 5,760 419,530 1,836,403 21.2
65 200,045 9,999 .09663 80,870 7,814 385,659 1,416,873 17.5
70 273,849 9,892 .14556 73,056 10,634 339,620 1,031,214 14.1
75 321,223 8,778 .21060 62,422 13,146 280,047 691,594 11.1
80 342,067 6,873 .31754 49,276 15,647 207,474 411,547 8.4
85 576,541 4,557 1.00000 33,629 33,629 204,073 204,073 6.1
3,762

Table 3

SOURCE: nDx and nPx values are obtained from Peters, Kochanek, and Murphy 1998, and from the web site, http://www.cdc.gov/
nchswww/datawh/statab/unpubd/mortabs/pop6096.htm, respectively.

nMx = nDx (3) table, lo, which is otherwise known as the radix, to
nPx some value—most often, 100,000. We generate all
subsequent lx values by the following equation:

For each death rate, we compute the correspond- x+n = x. [1– nqx ] (5)
ing probability of dying within that age interval,
given that one has survived to the beginning of the ndx equals the number of deaths experienced
interval. This value, denoted by nqx, is computed by the life table cohort within the age interval x to
using the following equation: x+n. It is the product of the number of individuals
alive at exact age x and the conditional probability
nqx = n . nMx (4) of dying within the age interval:
1 + (n–nax) .nMx

where nax is the average number of years lived by ndx = . nqx (6)
those who die within the age interval x to x+n.
(Except for the first year of life, it is typically x
assumed that deaths are uniformly distributed
within an age interval, implying that nax=n/2.) The concept of ‘‘person-years’’ is critical to
Given the values of q and a, we are able to generate understanding life table construction. Each indi-
the entire life table. vidual who survives from one birthday to the next
contributes one additional person-year to those
The life table may be thought of as a tracking tallied by the cohort to which that person belongs.
device, by which a cohort of individuals is followed In the year in which the individual dies, the dece-
from the moment of their birth until the last dent contributes some fraction of a person-year to
surviving individual dies. Under this interpreta- the overall number for that cohort.
tion, the various remaining columns are defined in
the following manner: lx equals the number of nLx equals the total number of person-years
individuals in the life table surviving to exact age x. experienced by a cohort in the age interval, x to
We arbitrarily set the number ‘‘born into’’ the life x+n. It is the sum of person-years contributed by
those who have survived to the end of the interval

615

DEMOGRAPHIC METHODS

and those contributed by individuals who die with- POPULATION PROJECTION
in that interval:
The life table, in addition, is often used to project
nLx = [n. x+n] + [nax .ndx] (7) either total population size or the size of specific
age groups. In so doing, we must invoke a different
Tx equals the number of person-years lived interpretation of the nLx’s and the Tx’s in the life
beyond exact age x: table. We treat them as representing the age distri-
bution of a stationary population—that is, a popula-
∞ (8) tion having long been subject to zero growth.
Thus, 5L20, for example, represents the number of
Tx = ∑ nLa = Tx+n + nLx twenty- to twenty-four-year-olds in the life table
‘‘population,’’ into which l0, or 100,000, individu-
a=x,n als are born each year. (One will note by summing
the ndx column that 100,000 die every year, thus
ex equals the expected number of years of life giving rise to stationarity of the life table population.)
remaining for an individual who has already sur-
vived to exact age x. It is the total number of If we were to assume that the United States is a
person-years experienced by the cohort above that closed population—that is, a population whose net
age divided by the number of individuals starting migration is zero—and, furthermore, that the mor-
out at that age: tality levels obtaining in 1996 were to remain
constant for the following ten years, then we would
ex = Tx (9) be able to project the size of any U.S. cohort up to
ten years into the future. Thus, if we wished to
x know the number of fifty- to fifty-four-year-olds in
2006, we would take advantage of the following
The nLx and Tx columns are generated from relation that is assumed to hold approximately:
the oldest age to the youngest. If the last age
category is, for example, eighty-five and above (it is nPx+τt+t ≈ nLx+τt+t (11)
typically ‘‘open-ended’’ in this way), we must have nPxτ nLxτ
an initial value for T85 in order to begin the proc-
ess. This value is derived in the following fashion: where is the base year of the projection (e.g.,
Since for this oldest age group, l85=∞d85 (due to the
fact that the number of individuals in a cohort who
will die at age eighty-five or beyond is simply
the number surviving to age eighty-five) and
T85=∞L85, we have:

e85 = T85 = 1= 1996) and t is the number of years one is projecting
85 / T85
85 the population forward. This equation implies

(10) that the fifty- to fifty-four-year-olds in 2006, P ,2006

5 50

1 ≈1 is simply the number of forty-to forty-four-year-

∞d85 / ∞L85 ∞M85 olds ten years earlier, P ,1996 multiplied by the

5 40

proportion of forty- to forty-four-year-olds in the

From the life table, we can obtain mortality life table surviving ten years, 5L50/5L40.
information in a variety of ways. In table 2, we see,
for example, that the expectation of life at birth, e0, In practice, it is appropriate to use the above
is 76.1 years. If an individual in this population relation in population projection only if the width
survives to age eighty, then he or she might expect of the age interval under consideration, n, is suffi-
to live 8.4 years longer. We might also note that the ciently narrow. If the age interval is very broad—
probability of surviving from birth to one’s tenth for example, in the extreme case in which we are
birthday is l10/l0, or 0.99022. Given that one has attempting to project the number of people aged
already lived eighty years, the probability that one ten and above in 2006 from the number zero and
survives five additional years is l85/l80, or 33,629/ above (i.e, the entire population) in 1996—we
49,276=0.68246. cannot be assured that the life table age distribu-
tion within that interval resembles closely enough
the age distribution of the actual population. In
other words, if the actual population’s age distri-
bution within a broad age interval is significantly

616

DEMOGRAPHIC METHODS

different from that within the corresponding in- of covariates shifts the hazard by the same propor-
terval of the life table population, then implicitly tional amount at all durations. Thus, for an indi-
by using this projection device we are improperly vidual i at duration d, with an observed set of
weighing the component parts of the broad inter- characteristics represented by a vector of covariates,
val with respect to survival probabilities. Zi, the hazard function, µi(d), is given by:

Parenthetically, if we desired to determine the µi(d) = exp [ λ (d) ] exp [Zi β] (12)
size of any component of the population under t
years old—in this particular example, ten years where ß is a vector of parameters and λ(d) is the
old—we would have to draw upon fertility as well underlying duration pattern of risk. In this model,
as mortality information, because at time τ these then, the underlying risk of dissolution for an
individuals had not yet been born. individual i with characteristics Zi is multiplied by a
factor equal to exp[Ziß].
HAZARDS MODELS
We may also implement a more general set of
Suppose we were to examine the correlates of models to test for departures from some of the
marital dissolution. In a life table analysis, the restrictive assumptions built into the proportional
break-up of the marriage (as measured, e.g., by hazards framework. More specifically, we allow for
separation or divorce) would serve as the analogue time-varying covariates (for instance, in this exam-
to death, which is the means of exit in the standard ple, the occurrence of a first marital birth) as well
life table analysis. as allow for the effects of individual characteristics
to vary with duration of first marriage. This model
In the study of many duration-dependent phe- may be written as:
nomena, it is clear that several factors may affect
whether an individual exits from a life table. Cer- µi(d) = exp [ λ (d) ] exp [Zi (d) β (d) ] (13)
tainly, it is well-established that a large number of
socioeconomic variables simultaneously impinge where λ(d) is defined as in the proportional haz-
on the marital dissolution process. In many popu- ards model, Zi(d) is the vector of covariates, some
lations, whether one has given birth premaritally, of which may be time-varying, and ß(d) represents
cohabited premaritally, married at a young age, or a vector of parameters, some of which may give
had little in the way of formal education, among a rise to nonproportional effects. The model pa-
whole host of other factors, have been found to be rameters can be estimated using the method of
strongly associated with marital instability. In such maximum likelihood. The estimation procedure
studies, in which one attempts to disentangle the assumes that the hazard, µi(d), is constant within
intricately related influences of several variables duration intervals. The interval width chosen by
on survivorship in a given state, we invoke a haz- the analyst, of course, should be supported on
ards model approach. Such an approach may be both substantive and statistical grounds.
thought of as a multivariate statistical extension of
the simple life table analysis presented above (for INDIRECT DEMOGRAPHIC ESTIMATION
theoretical underpinnings, see, e.g., Cox and Oakes
1984 and Allison 1984; for applications to marital Unfortunately, many countries around the world
stability, see, e.g., Menken, Trussell, Stempel, and have poor or nonexistent data pertaining to a wide
Babakol 1981 and Bennett, Blanc, and Bloom 1988). array of demographic variables. In the industrial-
ized nations, we typically have access to data from
In the marital dissolution example, we would rigorous registration systems that collect data on
assume that there is a hazard, or risk, of dissolu- mortality, marriage, fertility, and other demograph-
tion at each marital duration, d, and we allow this ic processes. However, when analyzing the demo-
duration-specific risk to depend on individual char- graphic situation of less developed nations, we are
acteristics (such as age at marriage, education, often confronted with a paucity of available data
etc.). In the proportional hazards model, a set of on these fundamental processes. When such data
individual characteristics represented by a vector are in fact collected, they are often sufficiently

617

DEMOGRAPHIC METHODS

inadequate to be significantly misleading. For ex- are inadequate, indirect methods allow us—by
ample, in some countries we have learned that as drawing upon the known structure implied by
few as half of all actual deaths are recorded. If we stability—to piece together sometimes inaccurate
mistakenly assume the value of the actual number information and ultimately derive sensible esti-
to be the registered number, then we will substan- mates of the population parameters. The essential
tially overestimate life expectancy in these popula- strategy in indirect demographic estimation is to
tions. In essence, we will incorrectly infer that infer a value or set of values for a variable whose
people are dying at a slower rate than is truly elements are either unobserved or inaccurate from
the case. the relationship among the remaining variables in
the above equation (or an equation deriving from
The Stable Population Model. Much demo- the one above). We find that these techniques are
graphic estimation has relied on the notion of robust with respect to moderate departures from
stability. A stable population is defined as one that is stability, as in the case of quasi-stable populations,
established by a long history of unchanging fertili- in which only fertility has been constant and mor-
ty and mortality patterns. This criterion gives rise tality has been gradually changing.
to a fixed proportionate age distribution, constant
birth and death rates, and a constant rate of popu- The Nonstable Population Model. Through-
lation growth (see, e.g., Coale 1972). The basic out much of the time span during which indirect
stable population equation is: estimation has evolved, there have been many
countries where populations approximated sta-
c(a) = be-rap(a) (14) bility. In recent decades, however, many countries
have experienced rapidly declining mortality or
where c(a) is the proportion of the population declining or fluctuating fertility and, thus, have
exact age a, b is the crude birth rate, r is the rate of undergone a radical departure from stability. Con-
population growth, and p(a) is the proportion of sequently, previously successful indirect methods,
the population surviving to exact age a. Various grounded in stable population theory, are, with
mathematical relationships have been shown to greater frequency, ill-suited to the task for which
obtain among the demographic variables in a sta- they were devised. As is often the case, necessity is
ble population. This becomes clear when we multi- the mother of invention and so demographers
ply both sides of the equation by the total popula- have sought to adapt their methodology to the
tion size. Thus, we have: changing world.

N(a) = Be-rap(a) (15) In the early 1980s, a methodology was devel-
oped that can be applied to populations that are
where N(a) is the number of individuals in the far from stable (see, e.g., Bennett and Horiuchi
population exact age a and B is the current annual 1981; and Preston and Coale 1982). Indeed, it is
number of births. We can see that the number of no longer necessary to invoke the assumption of
people aged a this year is simply the product of the stability, if we rely upon the following equation:
number of births entering the population a years
ago—namely, the current number of births times c(a) = b . exp [ a r (x) dx] . p (a) (16)
a growth rate factor, which discounts the births
according to the constant population growth rate, -∫
r (which also applies to the growth of the number 0
of births over time)—and the proportion of a birth
cohort that survives to be aged a today. Note that where r(x) is the growth rate of the population at
the constancy over time of the mortality schedule, exact age x. This equation holds true for any closed
p(a), and the growth rate, r, are crucial to the population, and, indeed, can be modified to ac-
validity of this interpretation. commodate populations open to migration.

When we assume a population is stable, we are The implied relationships among the age dis-
imposing structure upon the demographic rela- tribution of living persons and deaths, and rates of
tionships existing therein. In a country where data growth of different age groups, provide the basis
for a wide range of indirect demographic methods
that allow us to infer accurate estimates of basic

618

DEMOGRAPHIC METHODS

demographic parameters that ultimately can be principle of parsimony—that is, we want to be as
used to better inform policy on a variety of issues. efficient as possible with regard to the detail, and
Two examples are as follows. therefore the number of parameters, in a model.

First, suppose we have the age distribution for Mortality schedules from around the world
a country at each of two points in time, in addition reveal that death rates follow a common pattern of
to the age distribution of deaths occurring during relatively high rates of infant mortality, rates that
the intervening years. We may then estimate the decline through early childhood until they bottom
completeness of death registration in that popula- out in the age range of five to fifteen or so, then
tion using the following equation (Bennett and rates that increase slowly through the young and
Horiuchi 1981): middle adult years, and finally rising more rapidly
during the older adult ages beyond the forties or
N~ (a) = ∞x (17) fifties. Various mortality models exploit this regu-
lar pattern in the data. Countries differ with re-
∫ D (x) exp [ ∫ r (u) du] dx spect to the overall level of mortality, as reflected
aa in the expectation of life at birth, and the precise
relationship that exists among the different age
where (a) is the estimated number of people at components of the mortality curve.
exact age a, D(x) is the number of deaths at exact
age x and r(u) is the rate of the growth of the Coale and Demeny (1983) examined 192 mor-
number of persons at exact age u between the two tality schedules from different times and regions
time points. By taking the ratio of the estimated of the world and found that they could be catego-
number of persons with the enumerated popula- rized into four ‘‘families’’ of life tables. Although
tion, we have an estimate of the completeness of overall mortality levels might differ, within each
death registration in the population relative to the family the relationships among the various age
completeness of the enumerated population. This components of mortality were shown to be similar.
relative completeness (in contrast to an ‘‘absolute’’ For each family, Coale and Demeny constructed a
estimate of completeness) is all that is needed to ‘‘model life table’’ for females that was associated
determine the true, unobserved age-specific death with each of twenty-five expectations of life at birth
rates, which in turn allows one to construct an from twenty through eighty. A comparable set of
unbiased life table. tables was developed for males. In essence, a re-
searcher can match bits of information that are
A second example of the utility of the nonstable known to be accurate in a population with the
population framework is shown by the use of the corresponding values in the model life tables, and
following equation: ultimately derive a detailed life table for the popu-
lation under study. In less developed countries,
N (x) x model life tables are often used to estimate basic
N (a) mortality parameters, such as e0 or the crude death
= x-apa exp [∫ r (u) du] (18) rate, from other mortality indicators that may be
a more easily observable.

where N(x) and N(a) are the number of people Other mortality models have been developed,
exact ages x and a, respectively, and px−a a is the the most notable being that by Brass (1971). Brass
probability of surviving from age a to age x accord- noted that one mortality schedule could be related
ing to period mortality rates. By using variants of to another by means of a linear transformation of
this equation, we can generate reliable population the logits of their respective survivorship proba-
age distributions (e.g., in situations in which cen- bilities (i.e., the vector of lx values, given a radix of
suses are of poor quality) from a trustworthy life one). Thus, one may generate a life table by apply-
table (Bennett and Garson 1983). ing the logit system to a ‘‘standard’’ or ‘‘reference’’
life table, given an appropriate pair of parameters
MORTALITY MODELING that reflect (l) the overall level of mortality in the
population under study, and (2) the relationship
The field of demography has a long tradition of between child and adult mortality.
developing models that are based upon empirical
regularities. Typically in demographic modeling,
as in all kinds of modeling, we try to adhere to the

619

DEMOGRAPHIC METHODS

MARRIAGE, FERTILITY, AND the first birth experience of cohorts (see, e.g.,
MIGRATION MODELS Bloom 1982).

Coale (1971) observed that age distributions of Coale and Trussell (1974), recognizing the
first marriages are structurally similar in different empirical regularities that exist among age profiles
populations. These distributions tend to be smooth, of fertility across time and space and extending the
unimodal, and skewed to the right, and to have a work of Louis Henry, developed a set of model
density close to zero below age fifteen and above fertility schedules. Their model is based in part on
age fifty. He also noted that the differences in age- a reference distribution of age-specific marital
at-marriage distributions across female popula- fertility rates that describes the pattern of fertility
tions are largely accounted for by differences in in a natural fertility population—that is, one that
their means, standard deviations, and cumulative exhibits no sign of controlling the extent of child-
values at the older ages, for example, at age fifty. bearing activity. When fitted to an observed age
As a basis for the application of these observations, pattern of fertility, the model’s two parameters
Coale constructed a standard schedule of age at describe the overall level of fertility in the popula-
first marriage using data from Sweden, covering tion and the degree to which their fertility within
the period 1865 through 1869. The model that is marriage is controlled by some means of contra-
applied to marriage data is represented by the ception. Perhaps the greatest use of this model has
following equation: been devoted to comparative analyses, which is
facilitated by the two-parameter summary of any
E{g (a) = –1.145 ( a–µ + age pattern of fertility in question.
σ 1.2813 exp σ
Although the application of indirect demo-
(20) graphic estimation methods to migration analysis
is not as mature as that to other demographic
}0.805) ( a–µ processes, strategies similar to those invoked by
– exp[ –1.896 σ +0.805)] fertility and mortality researchers have been ap-
plied to the development of model migration sched-
where g(a) is the proportion marrying at age a in ules. Rogers and Castro (1981) found that similar
the observed population and µ, σ, and E are, age patterns of migration obtained among many
respectively, the mean and the standard deviation different populations. They have summarized these
of age at first marriage (for those who ever marry), regularities in a basic eleven-parameter model,
and the proportion ever marrying. and, using Brass and Coale logic, explore ways in
which their model can be applied satisfactorily to
The model can be extended to allow for data of imperfect quality.
covariate effects by stipulating a functional rela-
tionship between the parameters of the model The methods described above comprise only a
distribution and a set of covariates. This may be small component of the methodological tools avail-
specified as follows: able to demographers and to social scientists, in
general. Some of these methods are more readily
µi = Xi′ α ′ (20) applicable than others to fields outside of demog-
σi = Yi′ β ′ raphy. It is clear, for example, how we may take
Εi = Zi′ Y ′ advantage of the concept of standardization in a
variety of disciplines. So, too, may we apply life
where Xi, Yi, and Zi are the vector values of charac- table analysis and nonstable population analysis to
teristics of an individual that determine, respec- problems outside the demographic domain. Any
tively, µi, σi, and Ei, and α, ß, and Y are the analogue to birth and death processes can be
associated parameter vectors to be estimated. investigated productively using these central meth-
ods. Even the fundamental concept underlying the
Because the model is parametric, it can be above mortality, fertility, marriage, and migration
applied to data referring to cohorts who have yet models—that is, exploiting the power to be found
to complete their marriage experience. In this in empirical regularities—can be applied fruitfully
fashion, the model can be used for purposes of to other research endeavors.
projection (see, e.g., Bloom and Bennett 1990).
The model has also been found to replicate well

620

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

REFERENCES Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis.
Allison, Paul D. 1984 Event History Analysis. Beverly
Hills, Calif.: Sage Publications. NEIL G. BENNETT

Bennett, Neil G., Ann K. Blanc, and David E. Bloom DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
1988 ‘‘Commitment and the Modern Union: Assess-
ing the Link between Premarital Cohabitation and The human population has maintained relatively
Subsequent Marital Stability.’’ American Sociological gradual growth throughout most of history by
Review 53:127–138. high, and nearly equal, rates of deaths and births.
Since about 1800, however, this situation has
Bennett, Neil G., and Lea Keil Garson 1983 ‘‘The Cente- changed dramatically, as most societies have un-
narian Question and Old-Age Mortality in the Soviet dergone major declines in mortality, setting off
Union, 1959–1970.’’ Demography 20:587–606. high growth rates due to the imbalance between
deaths and births. Some societies have eventually
Bennett, Neil G., and Shiro Horiuchi 1981 ‘‘Estimating had fertility declines and emerged with a very
the Completeness of Death Registration in a Closed gradual rate of growth as low levels of births
Population.’’ Population Index 47:207–221. matched low levels of mortality.

Bloom, David E. 1982 ‘‘What’s Happening to the Age at There are many versions of demographic tran-
First Birth in the United States? A Study of Recent sition theory (Mason 1997), but there is some
Cohorts.’’ Demography 19:351–370. consensus that each society has the potential to
proceed sequentially through four general stages
———, and Neil G. Bennett 1990 ‘‘Modeling American of variation in death and birth rates and popula-
Marriage Patterns.’’ Journal of the American Statistical tion growth. Most societies in the world have
Association 85 (December):1009–1017. passed through the first two stages, at different
dates and speeds, and the contemporary world is
Coale, Ansley J. 1972 The Growth and Structure of Human primarily characterized by societies in the last two
Populations. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton Universi- stages, although a few are still in the second stage.
ty Press.
Stage 1, presumably characterizing most of
——— 1971 ‘‘Age Patterns of Marriage.’’ Population human history, involves high and relatively
Studies 25:193–214. equal birth and death rates and little
resulting population growth.
———, and Paul Demeny 1983 Regional Model Life
Tables and Stable Populations, 2nd ed. New York: Stage 2 is characterized by a declining death
Academic Press. rate, especially concentrated in the years of
infancy and childhood. The fertility rate
Coale, Ansley J., and James Trussell 1974 ‘‘Model Fertili- remains high, leading to at least moderate
ty Schedules: Variations in the Age Structure of population growth.
Childbearing in Human Populations.’’ Population In-
dex 40:185–206. Stage 3 involves further declines in mortali-
ty, usually to low levels, and initial sustained
Cox, D. R., and D. Oakes 1984 Analysis of Survival Data. declines in fertility. Population growth may
London: Chapman and Hall. become quite high, as levels of fertility and
mortality increasingly diverge.
Menken, Jane, James Trussell, Debra Stempel, and Ozer
Babakol 1981 ‘‘Proportional Hazards Life Table Mod- Stage 4 is characterized by the achievement
els: An Illustrative Analysis of Sociodemographic of low mortality and the rapid emergence of
Influences on Marriage Dissolution in the United low fertility levels, usually near those of
States.’’ Demography 18:181–200. mortality. Population growth again becomes
quite low or negligible.
Peters, Kimberley D., Kenneth D. Kochanek, and Sherry
L. Murphy 1998 ‘‘Deaths: Final Data for 1996.’’
National Vital Statistics Reports, vol. 47, no. 9. Hyattsville,
Md.: National Center for Health Statistics.

Preston, Samuel H., and Ansley J. Coale 1982 ‘‘Age
Structure, Growth, Attrition, and Accession: A New
Synthesis.’’ Population Index 48:217–259.

Rogers, Andrei, and Luis J. Castro 1981 ‘‘Model Migra-
tion Schedules.’’ (Research Report 81–30) Laxenburg,

621

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

While demographers argue about the details model example of the nineteenth century Europe-
of demographic change in the past 200 years, an demographic transition, peaked at an annual
clearcut declines in birth and death rates appeared rate of natural increase of 1.2 percent. In contrast,
on the European continent and in areas of over- many developing countries have attained growth
seas European settlement in the nineteenth centu- rates of over 3.0 percent. The world population
ry, especially in the last three decades. By 1900, life grew at a rate of about 2 percent in the early 1970s
expectancies in ‘‘developed’’ societies such as the but has now declined to about 1.4 percent, as
United States were probably in the mid-forties, fertility rates have become equal to the generally
having increased by a few years in the century low mortality rates.
(Preston and Haines 1991). By the end of the
twentieth century, even more dramatic gains in CAUSES OF MORTALITY TRANSITIONS
mortality were evident, with life expectancies reach-
ing into the mid- and high-seventies. The European mortality transition was gradual,
associated with modernization and raised stan-
The European fertility transition of the late dards of living. While some dispute exists among
1800s to the twentieth century involved a relatively demographers, historians, and others concerning
continuous movement from average fertility levels the relative contribution of various causes (McKeown
of five or six children per couple to bare levels of 1976; Razzell 1974), the key factors probably in-
replacement by the end of the 1930s. Fertility cluded increased agricultural productivity and im-
levels rose again after World War II, but then provements in transportation infrastructure which
began another decline about 1960. Some coun- enabled more efficient food distribution and, there-
tries now have levels of fertility that are well below fore, greater nutrition to ward off disease. The
long-term replacement levels. European mortality transition was also probably
influenced by improvements in medical knowl-
With a few exceptions such as Japan, most edge, especially in the twentieth century, and by
other parts of the developing world did not experi- improvements in sanitation and personal hygiene.
ence striking declines in mortality and fertility Infectious and environmental diseases especially
until the midpoint of the twentieth century. Gains have declined in importance relative to cancers
in life expectancy became quite common and very and cardiovascular problems. Children and in-
rapid in the post-World War II period throughout fants, most susceptible to infectious and environ-
the developing world (often taking less than twen- mental diseases, have showed the greatest gains in
ty years), although the amount of change was quite life expectancy.
variable. Suddenly in the 1960s, fertility transi-
tions emerged in a small number of societies, The more recent and rapid mortality transi-
especially in the Caribbean and Southeast Asia, to tions in the rest of the world have mirrored the
be followed in the last part of the twentieth centu- European change with a movement from infec-
ry by many other countries. tious/environmental causes to cancers and cardio-
vascular problems. In addition, the greatest bene-
Clear variations in mortality characterize many ficiaries have been children and infants. These
parts of the world at the end of the twentieth transitions result from many of the same factors as
century. Nevertheless, life expectancies in coun- the European case, generally associated with eco-
tries throughout the world are generally greater nomic development, but as Preston (1975) out-
than those found in the most developed societies lines, they have also been influenced by recent
in 1900. A much greater range in fertility than advances in medical technology and public health
mortality characterizes much of the world, but measures that have been imported from the high-
fertility declines seem to be spreading, including ly-developed societies. For instance, relatively in-
in ‘‘laggard’’ regions such as sub-Saharan Africa. expensive vaccines are now available throughout
the world for immunization against many infec-
The speed with which the mortality transition tious diseases. In addition, airborne sprays have
was achieved among contemporary lesser-devel- been distributed at low cost to combat widespread
oped countries has had a profound effect on the
magnitude of the population growth that has oc-
curred during the past few decades. Sweden, a

622

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

diseases such as malaria. Even relatively weak na- levels of life expectancy by historical standards for
tional governments have instituted major improve- most countries in both years. Not surprisingly,
ments in health conditions, although often only there is a strong tendency for life expectancy
with the help of international agencies. values to be correlated over time. A regression
straight line, indicating average life expectancy in
Nevertheless, mortality levels are still higher 1998 as a function of life expectancy in 1986
than those in many rich societies due to such describes this relationship. As suggested above,
factors as inadequate diets and living conditions, the levels of life expectancy in 1998 tend to be
and inadequate development of health facilities slightly higher than the life expectancy in 1986.
such as hospitals and clinics. Preston (1976) ob- Since geography is highly associated with econom-
serves that among non-Western lesser-developed ic development, the points on the graph generally
countries, mortality from diarrheal diseases (e.g., form a continuum from low to high life expectan-
cholera) has persisted despite control over other cy. African countries tend to have the lowest life
forms of infectious disease due to the close rela- expectancies, followed by Asia, Oceania, and the
tionship between diarrheal diseases, poverty, and Americas. Europe has the highest life expectancies.
ignorance—and therefore a nation’s level of so-
cioeconomic development. The African countries comprise virtually all
the countries with declining life expectancies, prob-
Scholars (Caldwell 1986; Palloni 1981) have ably a consequence of their struggles with ac-
warned that prospects for future success against quired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), mal-
high mortality may be tightly tied to aspects of nutrition, and civil disorder. Many of them have
social organization that are independent of simple lost several years of life expectancy in a very short
measures of economic well-being: Governments period of time. However, a number of the African
may be more or less responsive to popular need countries also have sizeable increases in life
for improved health; school system development expectancies.
may be important for educating citizens on how to
care for themselves and their families; the equita- Asian and American countries dominate the
ble treatment of women may enhance life expect- mid-levels of life expectancy, with the Asian coun-
ancy for the total population. tries showing a strong tendency to increase their
life expectancies, consistent with high rates of
Recent worldwide mortality trends may be economic development.
charted with the help of data on life expectancy at
age zero that have been gathered, sometimes on Unfortunately, Figure 1 does not include the
the basis of estimates, by the Population Reference republics of the former Soviet Union, since exactly
Bureau (PRB), a highly respected chronicler of comparable data are not available for both time
world vital rates. For 165 countries with relatively points. Nevertheless, there is some consensus
stable borders over time, it is possible to relate among experts that life expectancy has deteriorat-
estimated life expectancy in 1986 with the same ed in countries such as Russia that have made the
figure for 1998. Of these countries, only 13.3 transition from communism to economically-un-
percent showed a decline in life expectancy during stable capitalism.
the time period. Some 80.0 percent had overall
increasing life expectancy, but the gains were high- WHAT DRIVES FERTILITY RATES?
ly variable. Of all the countries, 29.7 percent actu-
ally had gains of at least five years or more, a The analysis of fertility decline is somewhat more
sizable change given historical patterns of mortality. complicated analytically than mortality decline.
One may presume that societies will try, if given
An indication of the nature of change may be resources and a choice, to minimize mortality
discerned by looking at Figure 1, which shows a levels, but it seems less necessarily so that societies
graph of the life expectancy values for the 165 have an inherent orientation toward low fertility,
countries with stable borders. Each point repre- or, for that matter, any specific fertility level. In
sents a country and shows the level of life expect- addition, fertility rates may vary quite widely across
ancy in 1986 and in 1998. Note the relatively high

623

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

Life Expectancy Patterns
90

80

70

Life Expecenty in Years, 1998 60
50

40

30
30 40 50 60 70 80
Life Expecenty in Years, 1986

Figure 1

societies due to factors (Bongaarts 1975) that have 2. Reduced fertility must be viewed as so-
little relationship to conscious desires such as cially or economically advantageous to
prolonged breastfeeding which supresses repro- couples.
ductive ovulation in women, the effectiveness of
birth control methods, and the amount of involun- 3. Effective techniques of birth control must
tary foetal abortion. As a result of these analytic be available. Sexual partners must know
ambiguities, scholars seem to have less consensus these techniques and have a sustained will
on the social factors that might produce fertility to use the them.
than mortality decline (Hirschman 1994; Ma-
son 1997). Beyond Coale’s conditions, little consensus
has emerged on the causes of fertility decline.
Coale (1973), in an attempt to reconcile the There are, however, a number of major ideas
diversity of circumstances under which fertility about what causes fertility transitions that may be
declines have been observed to occur, identified summarized in a few major hypotheses.
three major conditions for a major fall in fertility:
A major factor in causing fertility change may
1. Fertility must be within the calculus of be the mortality transition itself. High-mortality
conscious choice. Parents must consider it societies depend on high fertility to ensure their
an acceptable mode of thought and form survival. In such circumstances, individual couples
of behavior to balance the advantages and will maximize their fertility to guarantee that at
disadvantages of having another child. least a few of their children survive to adulthood,
to perpetuate the family lineage and to care for

624

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

them in old age. The decline in mortality may also employment outside their homes, and increasing-
have other consequences for fertility rates. As ly assert their social and political rights to partici-
mortality declines, couples may perceive that they pate equally with men in the larger society. Be-
can control the survival of family members by cause of socialization, men are generally unwilling
changing health and living practices such as clean- to assume substantial child-raising responsibilities,
liness and diet. This sense of control may extend leaving partners with little incentive to participate
itself to the realm of fertility decisions, so that in sustained childbearing through their young
couples decide to calculate consciously the num- adult lives.
ber of children they would prefer and then take
steps to achieve that goal. No consensus exists on how to order these
theories in relative importance. Indeed, each theo-
Another major factor may be the costs and ry may have more explanatory power in some
benefits of children. High-mortality societies are circumstances than others, and their relative im-
often characterized by low technology in produc- portance may vary over time. For instance, de-
ing goods; in such a situation (as exemplified by clines in mortality may be crucial in starting fertili-
many agricultural and mining societies), children ty transitions, but significant alterations in the
may be economically useful to perform low-skilled roles of children may be key for completing them.
work tasks. Parents have an incentive to bear Even though it is difficult to pick the ‘‘best’’ theory,
children, or, at the minimum, they have little every country that has had a sustained mortality
incentive not to bear children. However, high- decline of at least thirty years has also had some
technology societies place a greater premium on evidence of a fertility decline. Many countries
highly-skilled labor and often require extended seem to have the fertility decline precondition of
periods of education. Children will have few eco- high life expectancy, but fewer have achieved the
nomic benefits and may become quite costly as possible preconditions of high proportions of the
they are educated and fed for long periods of time. population achieving a secondary education.

Another major factor that may foster fertility EUROPEAN FERTILITY TRANSITION
decline is the transfer of functions from the family
unit to the state. In low-technology societies, the Much of what is known about the process of
family or kin group is often the fundamental unit, fertility transition is based upon research at Prince-
providing support for its members in times of ton University (known as the European Fertility
economic distress and unemployment and for Project) on the European fertility transition that
older members who can no longer contribute to took place primarily during the seventy-year peri-
the group through work activities. Children may od between 1870 and 1940. Researchers used
be viewed as potential contributors to the unit, aggregate government-collected data for the nu-
either in their youth or adulthood. In high-tech- merous ‘‘provinces’’ or districts of countries, typi-
nology societies, some of the family functions are cally comparing birth rates across time and provinces.
transferred to the state through unemployment
insurance, welfare programs, and old age retire- In that almost all births in nineteenth-century
ment systems. The family functions much more as Europe occurred within marriage, the European
a social or emotional unit where the economic model of fertility transition was defined to take
benefits of membership are less tangible, thus place at the point marital fertility was observed to
decreasing the incentive to bear children. fall by more than 10 percent (Coale and Treadway
1986). Just as important, the Project scholars iden-
Other major factors (Hirschman 1994; Mason tified the existence of varying levels of natural
1997) in fertility declines may include urbaniza- fertility (birth rates when no deliberate fertility
tion and gender roles. Housing space is usually control is practiced) across Europe and through-
costly in cities, and the large family becomes un- out European history (Knodel 1977). Comparative
tenable. In many high-technology societies, wom- use of natural fertility models and measures de-
en develop alternatives to childbearing through rived from these models have been of enormous
use to demographers in identifying the initiation
and progress of fertility transitions in more con-
temporary contexts.

625

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

Most scholars have concluded that European fertility declines on the basis of areal religious
countries seemed to start fertility transitions from composition (Lesthaeghe 1977) and that, in other
very different levels of natural fertility but moved countries such as Italy, areal variations in the
at quite similar speeds to similar levels of con- nature of fertility decline were related to political
trolled fertility on the eve of World War II (Coale factors such as the Socialist vote, probably reflect-
and Treadway 1986). As the transition progressed, ing anticlericalism (Livi-Bacci 1977). Others
areal differences in fertility within and across coun- (Lesthaeghe 1983) have also argued for ‘‘cultural’’
tries declined, while the remaining differences causes of fertility transitions.
were heavily between countries (Watkins 1991).
While the social causes of the European fertili-
Although some consensus has emerged on ty transition may be more complex than originally
descriptive aspects of the fertility transition, much thought, it may still be possible to rescue some of
less agreement exists on the social and economic the traditional ideas. For instance, mortality data
factors that caused the long-term declines. Early in Europe at the time of the fertility transition
theorists of fertility transitions (Notestein 1953) were often quite incomplete or unreliable, and
had posited a simple model driven by urban-indus- most of the studies focused on infant (first year of
trial social structure, but this perspective clearly life) mortality as possible causes of fertility decline.
proved inadequate. For instance, the earliest de- Matthiessen and McCann (1978) show that mor-
clines did not occur in England, the most urban- tality data problems make some of the conclusions
industrial country of the time, but were in France, suspect and that infant mortality may sometimes
which maintained a strong rural culture. The simi- be a weak indicator of child survivorship to adult-
larity of the decline across provinces and countries hood. They argue that European countries with
of quite different social structures also seemed the earliest fertility declines may have been charac-
puzzling within the context of previous theorizing. terized by more impressive declines in post-infant
Certainly, no one has demonstrated that varia- (but childhood) mortality than infant mortality.
tions in the fertility decline across countries, either
in the timing or the speed, were related clearly to Conclusions about the effects of children’s
variations in crude levels of infant mortality, litera- roles on fertility decline have often been based on
cy rates, urbanization, and industrialization. Oth- rates of simple literacy as an indicator of educa-
er findings from recent analysis of the European tional system development. However, basic litera-
experience include the observation that in some cy was achieved in many European societies well
instances, reductions in fertility preceded reduc- before the major fertility transitions, and the ma-
tions in mortality (Cleland and Wilson 1987), a jor costs of children would occur when secondary
finding that is inconsistent with the four-stage education was implemented on a large scale basis,
theory of demographic transition. which did not happen until near the end of the
nineteenth century (Van de Walle 1980). In a time-
The findings of the European Fertility Project series analysis of the United States fertility decline
have led some demographers (Knodel and van de from 1870 to the early 1900s, Guest and Tolnay
Walle 1979) to reformulate ideas about why fertili- (1983) find a nearly perfect tendency for the fertili-
ty declined. They suggest that European couples ty rate to fall as the educational system expanded
were interested in a small family well before the in terms of student enrollments and length of the
actual transition occurred. The transition itself school year. Related research also shows that edu-
was especially facilitated by the development of cational system development often occurred some-
effective and cheap birth control devices such as what independently of urbanization and industri-
the condom and diaphragm. Information about alization in parts of the United States (Guest 1981).
birth control rapidly and widely diffused through
European society, producing transitions that seemed An important methodological issue in the study
to occur independently of social structural factors of the European transition (as in other transitions)
such as mortality, urbanization, and educational is how one models the relationship between social
attainment. In addition, these scholars argue that structure and fertility. Many of the research re-
‘‘cultural’’ factors were also important in the de- ports from the European Fertility Project seem to
cline. This is based on the finding that provinces of assume that social structure and fertility had to be
some countries such as Belgium differed in their

626

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

closely related at all time points to support various (Coale 1983). The clear leaders among Asian na-
theories about the causal importance of such fac- tions, such as South Korea and Taiwan, generally
tors as mortality and children’s roles, but certain had experienced substantial economic growth, rap-
lags and superficial inconsistencies do not seem to id mortality decline, rising educational levels, and
prove fundamentally that fertility failed to respond exposure to Western cultural influences (Freed-
as some of the above theories would suggest. The man 1998). By 1998, South Korea and Taiwan had
more basic question may be whether fertility even- fertility rates that were below long-term replace-
tually responded to changes in social structure ment levels. China also experienced rapidly declin-
such as mortality. ing fertility, which cannot be said to have causes in
either Westernization or more than moderate eco-
Even after admitting some problems with pre- nomic development, with a life expectancy esti-
vious traditional interpretations of the European mated at seventy-one years and a rate of natural
fertility transition, one cannot ignore the fact that increase of 1.0 percent (PRB 1998).
the great decline in fertility occurred at almost the
same time as the great decline in mortality and was Major Latin American nations that achieved
associated (even if loosely) with a massive process substantial drops in fertility (exceeding 20 per-
of urbanization, industrialization, and the expan- cent) in recent decades with life expectancies sur-
sion of educational systems. passing sixty years include Argentina, Brazil, Chile,
Columbia, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Mexi-
FERTILITY TRANSITIONS IN THE co, and Venezuela. All of these have also experi-
DEVELOPING WORLD enced substantial changes in mortality, education,
or both, and economic development.
The great majority of countries in the developing
world have undergone some fertility declines in Unlike the European historical experience,
the second half of the twentieth century. While the fertility declines in the post-1960 period have not
spectacularly rapid declines (Taiwan, South Ko- always sustained themselves until they reached
rea) receive the most attention, a number are also near replacement levels. A number of countries
very gradual (e.g. Guatemala, Haiti, Iraq, Cambo- have started declines but then leveled off with
dia), and a number are so incipient (especially in three or four children per reproductive age wom-
Africa) that their nature is difficult to discern. an. For instance, Malaysia was considered a ‘‘mira-
cle’’ case of fertility decline, along with South
The late twentieth century round of fertility Korea and Taiwan, but in recent years its fertility
transitions has occurred in a very different social level has stabilized somewhat above the replace-
context than the historical European pattern. In ment level.
the past few decades, mortality has declined very
rapidly. National governments have become very Using the PRB data for 1986 and 1998, we can
attuned to checking their unprecedented national trace recent changes for 166 countries in estimat-
growth rates through fertility control. Birth con- ed fertility as measured by the Total Fertility Rate
trol technology has changed greatly through the (TFR), an indicator of the number of children
development of inexpensive methods such as the typically born to a woman during her lifetime.
intrauterine device (IUD). The world has become Some 80.1 percent of the countries showed de-
more economically and socially integrated through clines in fertility. Of all the countries, 37.3 percent
the expansion of transportation and developments had a decline of at least one child per woman, and
in electronic communications, and ‘‘Western’’ prod- 9.0 percent had a decline of at least two children
ucts and cultural ideas have rapidly diffused per woman.
throughout the world. Clearly, societies are not
autonomous units that respond demographically The region that encompasses countries hav-
as isolated social structures. ing the highest rates of population growth is sub-
Saharan Africa. Growth rates generally exceed 2
Leaders among developing countries in the percent, with several countries having rates that
process of demographic transition were found in clearly exceed 3 percent. This part of the world has
East Asia and Latin America, and the Carribbean been one of the latest to initiate fertility declines,
but in the 1986–1998 period, Botswana, Kenya,

627

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

and Zimbabwe all sustained fertility declines of at level fertility. The primary implication was that
least two children per woman, and some neighbor- family planning programs would not be effective
ing societies were also engaged in fertility transi- without social structures that encouraged the small
tion. At the same time, many sub-Saharan coun- family. A recent consensus on the value of family
tries are pre-transitional or only in the very early planning programs relative to social structural
stages of a transition. Of the twenty-five countries change seems to have emerged. Namely, family
that showed fertility increases in the PRB data, planning programs may be quite useful for achiev-
thirteen of them were sub-Saharan nations with ing low fertility where the social structure is consis-
TFRs of at least 5.0. tent with a small family ideal (Mauldin and
Berelson 1978).
In general, countries of the Middle East and
regions of Northern Africa populated by Moslems While the outlook for further fertility declines
have also been slow to embark on the process of in the world is good, it is difficult to say whether
fertility transition. Some (Caldwell 1976) found and when replacement-level fertility will be achieved.
this surprising since a number had experienced Many, many major social changes have occurred in
substantial economic advances and invited the societies throughout the world in the past half-
benefits of Western medical technology in terms century. These changes have generally been
of mortality reduction. Their resistance to fertility unprecented in world history, and thus we have
transitions had been attributed partly to an alleged little historical experience from which to judge
Moslem emphasis on the subordinate role of wom- their impact on fertility, both levels and speed of
en to men, leading them to have limited alterna- change (Mason 1997).
tives to a homemaker role. However, the PRB data
for 1986–1998 indicate that some of these coun- Some caution should be excercised about fu-
tries (Algeria, Bangladesh, Jordan, Kuwait, Moroc- ture fertility declines in some of the societies that
co, Syria, Turkey) are among the small number have been viewed as leaders in the developing
that achieved reduction of at least two children world. For instance, in a number of Asian socie-
per woman. ties, a strong preference toward sons still exists,
and couples are concerned as much about having
The importance of the mortality transition in an adequate number of sons survive to adulthood
influencing the fertility transition is suggested by as they are about total sons and daughters. Since
Figure 2. Each dot is a country, positioned in terms pre-birth gender control is still difficult, many
of graphical relationship in the PRB data between couples have a number of girl babies before they
life expectancy in 1986 and the TFR in 1998. The are successful in bearing a son. If effective gender
relationship is quite striking. No country with a life control is achieved, some of these societies will
expectancy less than fifty has a TFR below 3.0. almost certainly attain replacement-level fertility.
Remember that before the twentieth century, vir-
tually all countries had life expectancies below fifty In other parts of the world such as sub-Saharan
years. In addition, the figure shows a very strong Africa, the future of still-fragile fertility transitions
tendency for countries with life expectancies above may well depend on unknown changes in the
seventy to have TFRs below 2.0. organization of families. Caldwell (1976), in a widely
respected theory of demographic transition that
For a number of years, experts on population incorporates elements of both cultural innovation
policy were divided on the potential role of contra- and recognition of the role of children in tradi-
ceptive programs in facilitating fertility declines tional societies in maintaining net flows of wealth
(Davis 1967). Since contraceptive technology has to parents, has speculated that the traditional ex-
become increasingly cheap and effective, some tended kinship family model now predominant in
(Enke 1967) argue that modest international ex- the region facilitates high fertility. Families often
penditures on these programs in high-fertility coun- form economic units where children are impor-
tries could have significant rapid impacts on re- tant work resources. The extended structure of
production rates. Others (Davis 1967) point out, the household makes the cost of any additional
however, that family planning programs would member low relative to a nuclear family structure.
only permit couples to achieve their desires, which Further declines in fertility will depend on the
may not be compatible with societal replacement

628

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

Mortality and Fertility
8

7

6

5

4

Total Fertility Rate, 1998 3

2 50 60 70 80

1
30 40
Life Expecenty in Years, 1986

Figure 2

degree to which populations adopt the ‘‘Western’’ it will be a transitory (albeit spectacular) episode in
nuclear family, either through cultural diffusion human population history.
or through autonomous changes in local social
structure. REFERENCES

Taking the long view, the outlook for a com- Bongaarts, John 1975 ‘‘Why High Birth Rates are So
pleted state of demographic transition for the Low.’’ Population and Development Review 1:289–296.
world population as a whole generally appears
positive if not inevitable, although demographers Caldwell, John 1976 ‘‘Toward a Restatement of Demo-
are deeply divided on estimates of the size of world graphic Transition Theory.’’Population and Develop-
population at equilibrium, the timing of complet- ment Review 2:321–366.
ed transition, the principal mechanisms at work,
and the long-term ecological consequences. Cer- ——— 1986 ‘‘Routes to Low Mortality in Poor Coun-
tainly, the world population will continue to grow tries.’’ Population and Development Review 12:171–220.
for some period of time, if only as a consequence
of the previous momentum of high fertility rela- Cleland, John, and Christopher Wilson 1987 ‘‘Demand
tive to mortality. Most if not all demographers, Theories of the Fertility Transition: An Iconoclastic
however, subscribe to the view expressed by Coale View.’’ Population Studies 41:5–30.
(1974, p. 51) that the entire process of global
demographic transition and the phase of phe- Coale, Ansley 1973 ‘‘The Demographic Transition.’’
nomenal population growth that has accompanied International Population Conference, IUSSP. Liege,
Belgium.

——— 1974 ‘‘The History of Human Population.’’ Sci-
entific American 23:41–51.

629

DEMOGRAPHY

——— 1983 ‘‘Recent Trends in Fertility in Less Devel- Palloni, Alberto 1981 ‘‘Mortality in Latin America: Emerg-
oped Countries.’’ Science 221:828–832. ing Patterns.’’ Population and Development Review
7:623–649.
———, and Roy Treadway 1986 ‘‘A Summary of the
Changing Distribution of Overall Fertility, Marital Population Reference Bureau 1986 World Population
Fertility, and the Proportion Married in the Prov- Data Sheet. Washington, D.C.
inces of Europe.’’ In Ansley Coale and Susan Watkins,
eds., The Decline of Fertility in Europe. Princeton: ——— 1998 World Population Data Sheet. Washing-
Princeton University Press. ton, D.C.

Davis, Kingsley 1967 ‘‘Population Policy: Will Current Preston, Samuel 1975 ‘‘The Changing Relationship Be-
Programs Succeed?’’ Science 158:730–739. tween Mortality and Level of Economic Develop-
ment.’’ Population Studies 29:231–248.
Enke, Stephen 1967 ‘‘The Economic Case for Birth
Control.’’ Challenge/Magazine of Economic Affairs ——— 1976 Mortality Patterns in National Populations.
15:30–31. New York: Academic Press.

Freedman, Ronald 1998 ‘‘Observing Taiwan’s Demo- ———, and Michael Haines 1991 Fatal Years: Child
graphic Transition: A Memoir.’’ Research Report Mortality in Late Nineteenth-Century America. Prince-
98–426. Ann Arbor: Population Studies Center, Uni- ton: Princeton University Press.
versity of Michigan.
Razzell, P.E. 1974 ‘‘An Interpretation of the Modern
Guest, Avery 1981 ‘‘Social Structure and U.S. Inter-State Rise of Population in Europe - a Critique.’’ Population
Fertility Differentials in 1900.’’ Demography 18:453–486. Studies 28:5–17.

——— and Stewart Tolnay 1983 ‘‘Children’s Roles and van de Walle, Francine 1980 ‘‘Education and the Demo-
Fertility: Late Nineteenth Century United States,’’ graphic Transition in Switzerland.’’ Population and
Social Science History 7:355–380. Development Review 6:463–472.

Hirschman, Charles 1994 ‘‘Why Fertility Changes.’’ An- Watkins, Susan 1991 From Provinces into Nations: Demo-
nual Review of Sociology 20:203–233. graphic Integration in Western Europe, 1870–1960.
Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Knodel, John 1977 ‘‘Family Limitation and the Fertility
Transition: Evidence from the Age Patterns of Fertili- AVERY M. GUEST
ty in Europe and Asia.’’ Population Studies 32:481–510. GUNNAR ALMGREN

———, and Etienne van de Walle 1979 ‘‘Lessons from DEMOGRAPHY
the Past: Policy Implications of Historical Fertility
Studies.’’ Population and Development Review 5:217–245. Demography is the study of human populations. It
is an important part of sociology and the other
Lesthaeghe, Ron 1983 ‘‘A Century of Demographic social sciences because all persisting social aggre-
Change in Western Europe: An Exploration of Un- gates—societies, states, communities, racial or eth-
derlying Dimensions.’’ Population and Development nic groups, professions, formal organizations, kin-
Review 9:411–436. ship groups, and so on—are also populations. The
size of the population, its growth or decline, the
Mason, Karen Oppenheim 1997 ‘‘Explaining Fertility location and spatial movement of its people, and
Transitions.’’ Demography 34:443–454. their changing characteristics are important fea-
tures of an aggregate whether one sees it as a
Matthiessen, Paul C., and James C. McCann 1978 ‘‘The culture, an economy, a polity, or a society. As a
Role of Mortality in the European Fertility Transi- result some anthropologists, economists, histori-
tion: Aggregate-level Relations.’’ In Samuel H. Pres- ans, political scientists, and sociologists are also
ton, ed., The Effects of Infant and Child Mortality on demographers, and most demographers are mem-
Fertility. New York: Academic Press. bers of one of the traditional social science disciplines.

Mauldin, W. Parker, and Bernard Berelson 1978 ‘‘Con- A central question for each of the social sci-
ditions of Fertility Decline in Developing Countries.’’ ences is: How does the community, society, or
Studies in Family Planning 9:89–148. whatever, seen as a culture, an economy, a polity,
or whatever, produce and renew itself over the
McKeown, Thomas 1976 The Modern Rise of Population.
New York: Academic Press.

Notestein, Frank 1953 ‘‘Economic Problems of Popula-
tion Change.’’ Proceedings of the Eighth International
Conference of Agricultural Economics, 13–31. London:
Oxford University Press.

630

DEMOGRAPHY

years? Formal demography answers this question As a cohort of women age through their fertile
for aggregates seen as populations. This formal period, they die and have children in successive
part of demography is fairly independent of the years according to the age-specific rates appropri-
traditional social sciences and has a lengthy history ate to those years. Thus, the children of a single
in mathematics and statistics (Smith and Keyfitz birth cohort of women are spread over a sequence
1977; Stone 1997; Desrosières 1998). It depends of succeeding birth cohorts.
on a definition of age and on the relationship of
age to fertility and mortality. Those relationships The number of girls ever born to a birth
certainly are socially conditioned, but their major cohort, taken as a ratio to the initial size of the
outlines are constrained by biology. cohort, is implicit in the age-specific fertility and
mortality rates. This ratio, called the net reproduc-
Beyond pursuing formal demography, the task tion rate, describes the growth rate over a genera-
of most social scientist-demographers is detailing tion that is implicit in the age-specific rates. The
the relationships between demographic change length of this generation is also implicit in the age-
and other aspects of social change. Working with specific rates as the average age of mothers at the
concepts, methods, and questions arising from the birth of the second-generation daughters. With a
traditions of each of the social science disciplines rate of increase over a generation and a length of
as well as those of demography per se, schol- the generation, it is clear that an annual rate of
ars have investigated the relationship between increase is intrinsic to the age-specific rates.
demographic changes and such social changes
as those in the nature of families (Davis 1985; The distribution of the children of a birth
Sweet and Bumpass 1987; Bumpass 1990; Waite cohort over a series of succeeding cohorts has an
1995), levels of economic growth (Johnson and important effect. If an unusually small or large
Lee 1987; Nerlove and Raut 1997), the develop- birth cohort is created, the effects of its largeness
ment of colonialism (McNeill 1990), changes in or smallness will be distributed among a number
kinship structures (Dyke and Morrill 1980), na- of succeeding cohorts. In each of those succeeding
tionalism and interethnic strife (Tietelbaum and cohorts, the effect of the unusual cohort is aver-
Winter 1998), and the development of the nation- aged with that of other birth cohorts to create the
state (Watkins 1991). new cohort’s size. Those new cohorts’ ‘‘inherited’’
smallness or largeness, now diminished by averag-
FORMAL DEMOGRAPHY ing, will also be spread over succeeding cohorts. In
a few generations the smallness or largeness will
At the heart of demography is a body of strong and have averaged out and no reflection of the initial
useful mathematical theory about how popula- disturbance will be apparent.
tions renew themselves (Keyfitz 1968, 1985; Coale
1972; Bourgeois-Pichat 1994). The theory envi- Thus, without regard to peculiarities in the
sions a succession of female birth cohorts living initial age distribution, the eventual age distribu-
out their lives subject to a schedule of age-specific tion of a population experiencing fixed age-specif-
mortality chances and age-specific chances of hav- ic fertility and mortality will become proportion-
ing a female baby. In the simplest form of the ately constant. As this happens, the population will
model the age-specific rates are presumed con- take on a fixed aggregate birth and death rate and,
stant from year to year. consequently, a fixed rate of increase. The popula-
tion so created is called a stable population and its
Each new annual birth cohort is created be- rates, called intrinsic rates, are those implicit in the
cause the age-specific fertility rates affect women net reproduction rate and the length of a genera-
in earlier birth cohorts who have come to a specific tion. Such rates, as well as the net reproduction
age in the year in question. Thus, the mothers of a rates, are frequently calculated for the age-specific
new cohort of babies are spread among previous fertility and mortality rates occurring for a single
cohorts. The size of the new cohort is a weighted year as a kind of descriptive, ‘‘what if’’ summary.
average of the age-specific fertility rates. The sizes
of preceding cohorts, survived to the year in ques- This theory is elaborated in a number of ways.
tion, are the weights. In one variant, age-specific rates are not constant
but change in a fixed way (Lopez 1961). In another

631

DEMOGRAPHY

elaboration the population is divided into a num- two data collection systems—vital statistics and
ber of states with fixed age-specific migration or census—are remarkably different in their charac-
mobility among the states (Land and Rogers 1982; ter. To be effective, a vital statistics system must be
Schoen 1988). States may be geographic regions, ever alert to see that an event is recorded promptly
marital circumstances, educational levels, or whatever. and accurately. A census is more of an emergency.
Most countries conduct a census every ten years,
In part, the value of this theory is in the light it trying to enumerate all of the population in a
sheds on how populations work. For example, it brief time.
explains how a population can outlive all of its
contemporary members and yet retain its median If a vital registration system had existed for a
age, percent in each race, and its regional distribution. long time, were very accurate, and there were no
uncounted migrations, one could use past births
The fruit of the theory lies in its utility for and deaths to tally up the current population by
estimation and forecasting. Using aspects of the age. To the degree that such a tallying up does not
theory, demographers are able to elaborate rather match a census, one or more of the data collec-
modest bits and pieces of information about a tions systems is faulty.
population to a fairly full description of its trajec-
tory (Coale and Demeny 1983). Combined with SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHY
this mathematical theory is a body of practical
forecasting techniques, statistical estimation pro- One of the standard definitions of demography is
cedures, and data-collection wisdom that makes that given by Hauser and Duncan: ‘‘Demography
up a core area in demography that is sometimes is the study of the size, territorial distribution and
called formal demography (United Nations 1983; composition of populations, changes therein, and
Shryock and Siegel 1976; Pollard, Yusuf, and Pollard the components of such change, which may be
1990; Namboodiri 1991; Hinde 1998). identified as natality, mortality, territorial move-
ment (migration) and social mobility (change of
DEMOGRAPHIC DATA status)’’ (1959, p. 2). Each of these parts—size,
territorial distribution, and composition—is a ma-
Generating the various rates and probabilities used jor arena in which the relationships between demo-
in formal demography requires two different kinds graphic change and social change are investigated
of data. On the one hand are data that count the by social scientist-demographers. Each part has a
number of events occurring in the population in a somewhat separate literature, tradition, method,
given period of time. How many births, deaths, and body of substantive theory.
marriages, divorces, and so on have occurred in
the past year? These kinds of data are usually Population Size. The issue of population size
collected through a vital registration system (Na- and change in size is dominated by the shadow of
tional Research Council 1981; United Nations 1985, Malthus (Malthus 1959), who held that while food
1991). On the other hand are data that count the production can grow only arithmetically because
number of persons in a given circumstance at a of diminishing returns to investment in land and
given time. How many never-married women age other resources, population can grow geometrical-
twenty to twenty-four were there on July 1? These ly and will do so, given the chance. Writing in a
kinds of data are usually collected through a popu- time of limited information about birth control
lation census or large-scale demographic survey and considerable disapproval of its use, and hold-
(United Nations 1992; Anderson 1988; Anderson ing little hope that many people would abstain
and Fienberg 1999). From a vital registration sys- from sexual relations, Malthus believed that popu-
tem one gets, for example, the number of births to lations would naturally grow to the point at which
black women age twenty. From a census one col- starvation and other deprivations would curtail
lects the number of black women at age twenty. future expansion. At that point, the average level
The division of the number of events by the popu- of living would be barely above the starvation level.
lation exposed to the risk of having the event occur Transitory improvements in the supply of food
to them yields the demographic rate, that is, the would only lead to increased births and subse-
fertility rate for black women age twenty. These quent deaths as the population returned to its

632

DEMOGRAPHY

equilibrium size. Any permanent improvement in thought likely to happen elsewhere (Coale and
food supplies due to technological advances would, Watkins 1986). A second branch was the World
in Malthus’s theory, simply lead to a larger popula- Fertility Survey, perhaps the largest international
tion surviving at the previous level of misery. social science research project ever undertaken.
This project conducted carefully designed, compa-
Although there is good evidence that Malthus rable surveys with 341,300 women in seventy-one
understood his contemporary world quite well countries to investigate the circumstances of con-
(Lee 1980; Wrigley 1983), he missed the begin- temporary fertility decline (Cleland and Hobcraft
nings of the birth control movement, which were 1985). In 1983, a continuation of this project was
contemporaneous (McLaren 1978). The ability to undertaken under the name Demographic and
limit births, albeit at some cost, without limiting Health Surveys. To date, this project has provided
sexual activity requires important modifications to technical assistance for more than 100 surveys in
the Malthusian model. Africa, Asia, the Near East, Latin America, and the
Caribbean. For more complete information about
Questions of the relationship among popula- current activities see their web site at http://
tion growth, economic growth, and resources per- www.macroint.com/dhs/.
sist into the contemporary period. The bulk of the
literature is in economics. A good summary of that Scholars analyzing these projects come to a
literature can be found in T. P. Schultz (1981), in fairly similar assessment of the roots of historical
Rosensweig and Stark (1997), and in a National and contemporary fertility decline as centering in
Research Council report on population policy an increased secular rationality and growing norms
(1985). A more polemical treatment, but one that of individual responsibility.
may be more accessible to the noneconomist, is
offered by the World Bank (1985). Detailed investigation of the mortality side of
the European demographic transition has primari-
Sharing the study of population size and its ly been conducted by historians. A particularly
change with Malthusian issues is a body of substan- useful collection of papers is available in Schofield,
tive and empirical work on the demographic revolu- Reher, and Bideau (1991). For the United States, a
tion or transition (Notestein 1945). The model for particularly useful book on child and infant mor-
this transition is the course of fertility and mortali- tality at the turn of the twentieth century is by
ty in Europe during the Industrial Revolution. The Haines and Preston (1991).
transition is thought to occur concurrently with
‘‘modernization’’ in many countries (Coale and The utility of the idea of a demographic transi-
Watkins 1986) and to be still in process in many tion to understand population change in the devel-
less developed parts of the world (United Nations oping world has, of course, been a matter of
1990). This transition is a change from (1) a condi- considerable debate. A good summary of this lit-
tion of high and stable birthrates combined with erature is found in Jones et al. (1997).
high and fluctuating death rates, through (2) a
period of initially lowering death rates and subse- Territorial Distribution. Research on the terri-
quently lowering birthrates, to (3) a period of low torial distribution of populations is conducted in
and fairly constant death rates combined with low sociology, geography, and economics. The history
and fluctuating birthrates. In the course of part (2) of population distribution appears to be one of
of this transition, the population grows very con- population dispersion at the macroscopic level of
siderably because the rate of increase, absent mi- continents, nations, or regions, and one of popula-
gration, is the difference between the birthrate tion concentration at the more microscopic level
and the death rate. of larger towns and cities.

In large measure because of anxiety that fer- The diffusion of the human population over
tility might not fall rapidly enough in developing the globe, begun perhaps as the ice shields retreat-
countries, a good deal of research has focused on ed in the late Pleistocene, continues to the present
the fertility part of the transition. One branch of (Barraclough 1978; Bairoch 1988). More newly
this research has been a detailed historical investi- inhabited continents fill up and less habitable land
gation of what actually happened in Europe, since becomes occupied as technological and social
that is the base for the analogy about what is change makes it possible to live in previously

633

DEMOGRAPHY

remote areas. Transportation lines, whether cara- ceremony having occurred. Generally these un-
van, rail, or superhighway, extend across remote ions are not initially for the purposes of procrea-
areas to connect distant population centers. Stops tion, although children are sometimes born into
along the way become villages and towns specializ- them. Sometimes they appear to be trial marriages
ing in servicing the travelers and the goods in and are succeeded by legal marriages. A small but
transit. These places are no longer ‘‘remote.’’ Ex- increasing fraction of women in the more devel-
ploitation of resources proximate to these places oped countries seem to feel that a husband is not a
may now become viable because of the access to necessary ornament to motherhood. Because of
transportation as well as services newly available in these changes, older models of how marriage comes
the stopover towns. about and how marriage relates to fertility (Coale
and McNeil 1972; Coale and Trussell 1974) are in
As the increasing efficiency of agriculture has need of review as demographers work toward a
released larger and larger fractions of the popula- new demography of the family (Bongaarts 1983;
tion from the need to till the soil, it has become Keyfitz 1987).
possible to sustain increasing numbers of urban
people. There is a kind of urban transition more or Those characteristics that indicate member-
less concomitant with the demographic transition ship in one or another of the major social group-
during which a population’s distribution by city ings within a population vary from place to place.
size shifts to larger and larger sizes (Kelley and Since such social groupings are the basis of ine-
Williamson 1984; Wrigley 1987). Of course, the quality, political division, or cultural separation,
continuing urban transition presents continuing their demography becomes of interest to social
problems for the developing world (United Na- scientists and to policy makers (Harrison and
tions 1998). Bennett 1995). To the degree that endogamy holds,
it is often useful to analyze a social group as a
Population Composition. The characteristics in- separate population, as is done for the black popu-
cluded as compositional ones in demographic work lation in the United States (Farley 1970). Fertility
are not predefined theoretically, with the excep- and mortality rates, as well as marital and family
tion, perhaps, of age and sex. In general, composi- arrangements, for blacks in the United States are
tional characteristics are those characteristics in- different from those of the majority population.
quired about on censuses, demographic surveys, The relationship between these facts, their impli-
and vital registration forms. Such items vary over cations, and the socioeconomic discrimination and
time as social, economic, and political concerns residential segregation experienced by this popu-
change. Nonetheless, it is possible to classify most lation is a matter of historic and continuing schol-
compositional items into one of three classes. First arly work (Farley and Allen 1987; Lieberson 1980;
are those items that are close to the reproductive Farley 1996, ch. 6).
core of a society. They include age, sex, family
relationships, and household living arrangements. For other groups, such as religious or ethnic
The second group of items are those characteris- groups in the United States, the issue of endogamy
tics that identify the major, usually fairly endoga- becomes central in determining the continuing
mous, social groups in the population. They in- importance of the characteristic for the social life
clude race, ethnicity, religion, and language. Finally of the larger population (Johnson 1980; Kalmijn
there is a set of socioeconomic characteristics such 1991). Unlike the black population, ethnic and
as education, occupation, industry, earnings, and religious groups seem to be of decreasing appro-
labor force participation. priateness to analyze as separate populations with-
in the United States, since membership may be a
Within the first category of characteristics, matter of changeable opinion.
contemporary research interest has focused on
families and households because the period since The socioeconomic characteristics of a popu-
1970 has seen such dramatic changes in developed lation are analyzed widely by sociologists, econo-
countries (Van de Kaa 1987; Davis 1985; Farley mists, and policy-oriented researchers. Other than
1996, ch. 2). Divorce, previously uncommon, has being involved in the data production for much of
become a common event. Many couples now live this research, the uniquely demographic contribu-
together without record of a civil or religious tions come in two ways. First is the consideration

634

DEMOGRAPHY

of the relationship between demographic change countries. For example, should a country insist on
and change in these characteristics. The relation- family-planning efforts in a developing country
ship between female labor force participation and prior to providing economic aid? A selection of
changing fertility patterns has been a main topic of opinions and some recommendations for policy in
the ‘‘new home economics’’ within economic de- the United States are provided in Menken (1986)
mography (Becker 1960; T. W. Schultz 1974; T. P. and in the National Research Council (1985).
Schultz 1981; Bergstrom 1997). The relationship
between cohort size and earnings is a topic treated IMPORTANT CURRENT RESEARCH AREAS
by both economists and sociologists (Winsborough
1975; Welch 1979). A system of relationships be- Three areas of demographic research are of espe-
tween cohort size, economic well-being, and fertili- cially current interest. Each is, in a sense, a sequela
ty has been proposed by Easterlin (1980) in an of the demographic transition. They are:
effort to explain both fertility cycles and long
swings in the business cycle. 1. Institutional arrangements for the produc-
tion of children,
A second uniquely demographic contribution
to the study of socioeconomic characteristics ap- 2. Immigration, emigration, ethnicity, and
pears to be the notion of a cohort moving through nationalism,
its socioeconomic life course (Duncan and Hodge
1963; Hauser and Featherman 1977; Mare 1980). 3. Population aging, morbidity, and
The process of leaving school, getting a first job, mortality.
then subsequent jobs, each of which yields in-
come, was initially modeled as a sequence of recur- Institutional arrangements for the produc-
sive equations and subsequently in more detailed tion of children. The posttransition developed
ways. Early in the history of this project it was world has seen dramatic changes in the institution-
pointed out that the process could be modeled as a al arrangements for the production of children.
multistate population (Matras 1967), but early da- Tracking these changes has become a major preoc-
ta collected in the project did not lend itself to cupation of contemporary demography. Modern
such modeling and the idea was not pursued. contraception has broken the biological link be-
tween sexual intercourse and pregnancy. Deci-
POPULATION POLICY sions about sexual relations can be made with less
concern about pregnancy. The decision to have a
The consideration and analysis of various popula- child is less colored by the need for sexual gratifi-
tion policies is often seen as a part of demography. cation. People no longer must choose between the
Population policy has two important parts. First is celibate single life or the succession of pregnancies
policy related to the population of one’s own and children of a married one. Women are em-
nation. The United Nations routinely conducts ployed before, during, and after marriage. Their
inquiries about the population policies of member earning power makes marriage more an option
nations (United Nations 1995). Most responding and a context for child raising than an alternative
governments claim to have official positions about employment. Women marry later, are older when
a number of demographic issues, and many have they have children, and are having fewer children
policies to deal with them. It is interesting to note than in the past. Divorce has moved from an
that the odds a developed country that states its uncommon event to a common one. Cohabitation
fertility is too low has a policy to raise the rate is is a new, and somewhat inchoate, lifestyle that
about seven to one, while the odds that a less influences the circumstances for childbearing and
developed country that states that its fertility is too child rearing. Although only a modest number of
high has a policy to lower the rate is about 4.6 to children are currently born to cohabiting couples,
one. The prospect of declining population in the most children will spend some time living with a
United States has already begun to generate policy parent in such a relationship before they are adults
proposals (Teitelbaum and Winter 1985). (Bumpass and Lu 1999). Changes such as these
have occurred in most of Europe and North Ameri-
The second part of population policy is the ca and appear to be increasing in those parts of
policy a nation has about the population of other Asia where the demographic transitions occurred
first. The changes have, of course, been met with

635

DEMOGRAPHY

considerable resistance in many places. Will they population growth is the aging of the population
continue to occur in other countries as the demo- (Treas and Torrecilha 1995). Much of the devel-
graphic transitions proceed around the world? oped world is experiencing this aging and its
How serious will the resistance be in countries concomitants. Countries that made a rapid demo-
more patriarchal than those of Europe? These graphic transition have especially dramatic imbal-
issues await future demographic research. ances in their age distribution. Concerns about
retirement, health, and other programs for the
Immigration, emigration, ethnicity, and na- elderly generate interest in demographic research
tionalism. The difference between immigration in these areas. Will increasing life expectancy add
and emigration is, of course, net migration as a years to the working life so that retirement can
component of population growth. In general, the begin later? Or will the added years all be spent in
direct impact of net migration on growth has been nursing homes? These questions are currently of
modest. Certainly emigration provided some out- great policy interest and pose interesting and diffi-
let for population growth in Europe during the cult problems for demographic research (Manton
transition (Curtin 1989) and played a role in the and Singer 1994). Traditional demographic mod-
population of the Americas, Australia, and New eling has assumed that frailty, the likelihood of
Zealand. Most of the effect of immigration to the death, varies according to measurable traits such
New World was indirect, however. It was the child- as age, sex, race, education, wealth, and so on, but
ren of immigrants who peopled the continents are constant within joint values of these variables.
rather than the immigrants themselves. Contem- But what happens if frailty is a random variable? In
porary interest in international migration has three survival models, randomness in frailty is not help-
sources. First is an abiding concern for refugees ful, or at least benign, as it is in so many other
and displaced persons. Second is interest in a statistical circumstances. Rather, it can have quite
highly mobile international labor force in the con- dramatic effects (Vaupel and Yashin 1985). How
struction industry. Third, and perhaps most im- one models frailty appears to make a considerable
portant, is the migration of workers from less amount of difference in the answers one gets to
developed countries to developed ones in order to important policy questions surrounding popula-
satisfy the demand for labor in a population in real tion aging.
or incipient decline (Teitelbaum and Winter 1998).
In France, Germany, and England immigrants DEMOGRAPHY AS A PROFESSION
who come and stay change the ethnic mix of the
population. In the United States, legal and illegal Most demographers in the United States are trained
immigration from Mexico has received consider- in sociology. Many others have their highest de-
able attention (Chiswick and Sullivan 1995). The gree in economics, history, or public health. A few
immigration of skilled Asians raises issues of an- are anthropologists, statisticians, or political scien-
other kind. In all of these countries, the perma- tists. Graduate training of demographers in the
nent settlement of new immigrants arouses power- United States and in much of the rest of the world
ful nationalistic concerns. The situation provides now occurs primarily in centers. Demography cen-
ample opportunity for the investigation of the ters are often quasi-departmental organizations
development of ethnicity and the place of endoga- that serve the research and training needs of schol-
my in its maintenance. As with changes for child ars in several departments. In the United States
rearing, these changes seem consequences of the there are about twenty such centers, twelve of
demographic transition. Below-replacement fer- which have National Institutes of Health grants.
tility seems to generate the need for imported The Ford Foundation has supported similar de-
workers and their consequent inclusion in the mography centers at universities in the less devel-
society. If this speculation is true, how will coun- oped parts of the world.
tries more recently passing through the transition
react to this opportunity and challenge? This is Today, then, most new demographers, with-
another arena for future demographic investigation. out regard for their disciplinary leanings, are trained
at a relatively few universities. Most will work as
Population aging, morbidity, and mortality. faculty or researchers within universities or at
Accompanying the reduction of fertility and of

636

DEMOGRAPHY

demography centers. Another main source of em- Bourgeois-Pichat, Jean 1994 La Dynamique Des Popula-
ployment for demographers is government agen- tions: Populations Stables, Semi-stable, Quasi-stables. Par-
cies. Census bureaus and vital statistics agencies is: Presses Universitaires de France.
both provide much of the raw material for demo-
graphic work and employ many demographers Bumpass, Larry L. 1990 ‘‘What’s Happening to the
around the world. There is a small but rapidly Family? Interactions Between Demographic and In-
growing demand for demographers in the private stitutional Change.’’ Demography 27:483–498.
sector in marketing and strategic planning.
———, and H-H Lu 1999 ‘‘Trends in Cohabitation and
Support for research and training in demogra- Implications for Children’s Family Contexts in the
phy began in the United States in the 1920s with U.S.’’ Forthcoming in Population Studies.
the interest of the Rockefeller Foundation in is-
sues related to population problems. Its support Chiswick, Barry, and Teresa Sullivan 1995 ‘‘The New
led to the first demography center, the Office of Immigrants.’’ In Reynolds Farley, ed., State of the
Population Research at Princeton University. The Union: America in the 1990s, V2, Social Trends. New
Population Council in New York was established York: Russell Sage Foundation.
as a separate foundation by the Rockefeller broth-
ers in the 1930s. Substantial additional foundation Cleland, John, and John Hobcraft 1985 Reproductive
support for the field has come from the Ford Change in Developing Countries: Insights from the World
Foundation, the Scripps Foundation, and, more Fertility Survey. London: Oxford University Press.
recently, the Hewlett Foundation. Demography
was the first of the social sciences to be supported Coale, Ansley 1972 The Growth and Structure of Human
by the newly founded National Science Founda- Populations: A Mathematical Investigation. Princeton,
tion in the immediate post-World War II era. In N.J.: Princeton University Press.
the mid-1960s the National Institute of Child Health
and Human Development undertook support of ———, and Paul Demeny 1983 Regional Model Life
demographic research. Tables and Stable Populations. New York: Academ-
ic Press.
(SEE ALSO: Birth and Death Rates; Census; Demographic
Methods; Demographic Transition; Life Expectancy; Population) Coale, Ansley, and D. R. McNeil 1972 ‘‘Distribution by
Age of Frequency of First Marriage in a Female
REFERENCES Cohort.’’ Journal of the American Statistical Association
67:743–749.
Anderson, Margo 1988 The American Census: A Social
History. New Haven: Yale University Press. ———, and James Trussell 1974 ‘‘Model Fertility Sched-
ules: Measurement and Use in Fertility Models.’’
———, and Stephen Fienberg 1999 Who Counts: The Population Index 40:182–258.
Politics of Census-Taking in Contemporary America. New
York: Russell Sage Foundation. Coale, Ansley, and Susan C. Watkins (eds.) 1986 The
Decline of Fertility in Europe. Princeton, N.J.: Prince-
Barraclough, Geoffrey (ed.) 1978 The Times Atlas of ton University Press.
World History. London: Times Books.
Curtin, Philip 1989 Death by Migration: Europe’s Encoun-
Becker, G. S. 1960 ‘‘An Economic Analysis of Fertility.’’ ter with the Tropical World in the Nineteenth Century.
In Becker, ed., Demographic and Economic Change in Cambridge, Mass.: Cambridge University Press.
Developed Countries. Princeton, N.J.: National Bureau
of Economic Research. Davis, Kingsley (ed.) 1985 Contemporary Marriage. New
York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Bergstrom, Theodore 1997 ‘‘A Survey of Theories of the
Family.’’ In Mark Rosenzweig and Oded Stark, eds., Desrosières, Alain 1998 The Politics of Large Numbers: A
Handbook of Family and Population Economics. Amster- History of Statistical Reasoning. Translated by Camille
dam: North-Holland. Naish. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.

Bongaarts, John 1983 ‘‘The Formal Demography of Duncan, O. D., and William Hodge 1963 ‘‘Education
Families and Households: An Overview.’’ IUSSP News- and Occupational Mobility.’’ American Journal of Soci-
letter 17:27–42. ology 68:629–644.

Dyke, Bennett, and Warren Morrill (eds.) 1980 Genea-
logical Demography. New York: Academic Press.

Easterlin, Richard 1980 Birth and Fortune: The Impact of
Numbers on Personal Welfare. New York: Basic Books.

Farley, Reynolds 1970 Growth of the Black Population: A
Study of Demographic Trends. Chicago: Markham.

637

DEMOGRAPHY

——— (ed.) 1995 State of the Union: America in the 1990’s. Case of Preindustrial England.’’ In Richard Easterlin,
Vol. 1, Economic Trends. Vol. 2, Social Trends. New ed., Population and Economic Change in Developing
York: Russell Sage Foundation. Countries. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

——— 1996 The New American Reality: Who We Are, How Lieberson, Stanley 1980 A Piece of the Pie: Black and White
We Got There, Where We Are Going. New York: Russell Immigrants Since 1880. Berkeley: University of Cali-
Sage Foundation. fornia Press.

———, and Walter R. Allen 1987 The Color Line and the Lopez, A. 1961 Some Problems in Stable Population Theory.
Quality of Life in America. New York: Russell Sage Princeton, N.J.: Office of Population Research.
Foundation.
Malthus, Thomas R. 1959 Population: The First Essay.
Haines, M., and S. Preston 1991 The Fatal Years: Child Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Mortality in Late Nineteenth-Century America. Prince-
ton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. Mare, Robert D. 1985 ‘‘Social Background and School
Continuation Decisions.’’ Journal of the American Sta-
Harrison, Roderick, and Claudette Bennett 1995 ‘‘Ra- tistical Association 75:295–305.
cial and Ethnic Diversity.’’ In Farley, ed., State of the
Union: America in the 1990s, V2, Social Trends New Matras, Judah 1967 ‘‘Social Mobility and Social Struc-
York: Russell Sage Foundation. ture: Some Insights from the Linear Model.’’ Ameri-
can Sociological Review 33:608–614.
Hauser, Philip M., and Otis Dudley Duncan 1959 The
Study of Population: An Inventory and Appraisal. Chica- McLaren, Angus 1978 Birth Control in Nineteenth-Century
go: University of Chicago Press. England. New York: Holmes & Meier.

Hauser, Robert M., and David L. Featherman 1977 The McNeill, William H. 1990 Population and Politics Since
Process of Stratification: Trends and Analyses. New York: 1750. Charlottesville: University of Virginia Press.
Academic Press.
Menken, Jane (ed.) 1986 World Population and U.S.
Hinde, Andrew 1998 Demographic Methods. London: Arnold. Policy: The Choices Ahead. New York: W. W. Norton.

Johnson, D. Gale, and Ronald D. Lee (eds.) 1987 Popula- Namboodiri, Krishnan 1991 Demographic Analysis: A
tion Growth and Economic Development: Issues and Evi- Stochastic Approach. San Diego: Academic Press.
dence. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press.
National Research Council 1981 Collecting Data for Esti-
Johnson, Robert A. 1980 Religious Assortative Marriage in mation of Fertility and Mortality. Report no. 6, Com-
the United States. New York: Academic Press. mittee on Population and Demography, Assembly of
Behavioral and Social Sciences, National Research
Jones, Gavin et al. (eds.) 1997 The Continuing Demograph- Council. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.
ic Transition. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
——— Working Group on Population Growth and
Kalmijn, Matthijs 1991 ‘‘Shifting Boundaries: Trends in Economic Development, Committee on Population,
Religious and Educational Homogamy.’’ American Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and
Sociological Review 56:786–800. Education 1985 Population Growth and Economic De-
velopment: Policy Questions. Washington, D.C.: Na-
Kelley, Allen, and Jeffrey Williamson 1984 ‘‘Modeling tional Academy Press.
the Urban Transition.’’ Population and Development
Review 10:419–442. Nerlove, Marc, and Lakshmi Raut 1997 ‘‘Growth Mod-
els with Endogenous Population: A General Frame-
Keyfitz, Nathan 1968 Introduction to the Mathematics of work.’’ In Mark Rosenzweig and Oded Stark, eds.,
Populations. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley. Handbook of Family and Population Economics Amster-
dam: North-Holland.
——— 1985 Applied Mathematical Demography. New York:
Springer-Verlag. Notestein, Frank W. 1945 ‘‘Population—The Long View.’’
In Theodore W. Schultz, ed., Food for the World.
——— 1987 ‘‘Form and Substance in Family Demogra- Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
phy.’’ In J. Bongaarts, T. Burch, and K. Wachter, eds.,
Family Demography. New York: Oxford Universi- Pollard, A. H., Farhat Yusuf, and G. N. Pollard 1990
ty Press. Demographic Techniques. Sydney: Pergamon Press.

Land, Kenneth C., and Andrei Rogers (eds.) 1982 Multi- Rosenzweig, Mark, and Oded Stark (eds.) 1997 Hand-
dimensional Mathematical Demography. New York: Aca- book of Population and Family Economics. Amsterdam:
demic Press. Elsevier.

Lee, Ronald 1980 ‘‘An Historical Perspective on Eco- Schoen, Robert 1988 Modeling Multigroup Populations.
nomic Aspects of the Population Explosion: The New York: Plenum Press.

638

DEPENDENCY THEORY

Schofield, R., D. Reher, and A. Bideau (eds.) The Decline on Population Dynamics.’’ American Statistician
of Mortality in Europe. Oxford: Clarendon Press. 39:176–185.

Schultz, T. Paul 1981 Economics of Population. Reading, Waite, Linda 1995 ‘‘Does Marriage Matter?’’ Demogra-
Mass.: Addison-Wesley. phy 32:483–507.

Schultz, T. W. (ed.) 1974 Economics of the Family. Chica- Watkins, Susan C. 1991 From Provinces into Nations:
go: University of Chicago Press. Demographic Integration in Western Europe, 1870–1960.
Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Shryock, Henry S., and Jacob S. Siegel 1976 The Methods
and Materials of Demography. New York: Academ- Welch, F. 1979 ‘‘Effect of Cohort Size on Earnings: The
ic Press. Baby Boom Babies’ Financial Bust.’’ Journal of Politi-
cal Economy 2:565–598.
Singer, B., and K. Manton 1994 ‘‘What’s the Fuss About
the Compression Morbidity?’’ Chance. Fall 1994. Winsborough, H. 1975 ‘‘Age, Period, Cohort, and Edu-
cation Effects of Earnings by Race—An Experiment
Smith, David P., and Nathan Keyfitz (eds.) 1977 Mathe- with a Sequence of Cross-Sectional Surveys.’’ In Ken-
matical Demography: Selected Essays. Berlin and New neth Land and Seymour Spilerman, eds., Social Indi-
York: Springer-Verlag. cator Models. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.

Stone, Richard 1997 Some British Empiricists in the Social World Bank 1985 Population Change and Economic Devel-
Sciences: 1650–1900. Cambridge, Mass.: Cambridge opment. New York: Oxford University Press.
University Press.
Wrigley, E. A. 1987 People, Cities and Wealth: The Trans-
Sweet, James A., and Larry L. Bumpass 1987 American formation of Traditional Society. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.
Families and Households. New York: Russell Sage
Foundation. HALLIMAN H. WINSBOROUGH

Teitelbaum M., and J. Winter 1985 The Fear of Population DEPENDENCY THEORY
Decline. Orlando, Fla.: Academic Press.
Conceived in the 1960s by analysts native to de-
——— 1998 A Question of Numbers: High Migration, Low veloping countries, dependency theory is an
Fertility, and the Politics of National Identity. New York: alternative to Eurocentric accounts of modernization
Wang and Hill. as universalistic, unilinear evolution (Addo 1996).
Instead, contemporary underdevelopment is seen
Treas, Judith, and Ramon Torrecilha 1995 ‘‘The Older as an outgrowth of asymmetrical contacts with
Population.’’ In Reynolds Farley, ed., State of the capitalism. The thesis is straightforward: Follow-
Union: The 1990 Census Research Project. New York: ing the first wave of modernization, less-de-
Russell Sage Foundation. veloped countries are transformed by their
interconnectedness with other nations, and the
United Nations, Department of International Economic nature of their contacts, economies, and ideolo-
and Social Affairs 1983 Manual X: Indirect Techniques gies (Keith 1997). Interaction between social or-
for Demographic Estimation. Population Studies, no. ders is never merely a benign manifestation of
81, ST/ESA/SER.A/81. economic or cultural diffusion. Rather, both the
direction and pace of change leads to internal
——— 1985 Handbook of Vital Statistics Systems and Meth- restructuring designed to bolster the interests of
ods, Volume II: Review of National Practices. ST/STAT/ the more powerful exchange partner without al-
SER.F/35 V2. tering the worldwide distribution of affluence.

——— 1991 Handbook of Vital Statistics Systems and Meth- Widely utilized as both a heuristic and empiri-
ods, Volume I: Legal, Organizational and Technical As- cal template, dependency theory emerged from
pects. ST/STAT/SER.F/35V.1. neo-Marxist critiques of the failure of significant
capital infusion, through the United Nations Eco-
——— 1992 Handbook of Population and Housing Census- nomic Commission for Latin America, to improve
es. ST/STAT/SER.F/54 V.1,2. overall quality of life or provide significant returns

——— 1995 Results of the Seventh United Nations Popula-
tion Inquiry Among Governments. ST/ESA/SER.R/140.

——— 1998 World Urbanization Prospects: The 1996 Revi-
sion. ST/ESA/SER.A/170.

Van de Kaa, Dirk 1987 ‘‘Europe’s Second Demographic
Transition.’’ Population Bulletin 42:1.

Vaupel, James W., and Anatoli I.Yashin. 1985 ‘‘Hetero-
geneity’s Ruses: Some Surprising Effects of Selection

639

DEPENDENCY THEORY

to countries in the region. Dependency theory Dos Santos (1971) extended Frank’s attention
quickly became an instrument for political com- to metropolis–satellite relationships. He maintained
mentary as well as an explanatory framework as it that whatever economic or social change that does
couched its arguments in terms of the conse- take place occurs primarily for the benefit of the
quences of substituting cash crops for subsistence dominant core. This is not to say that the outlying
farming and replacing local consumer goods with areas are merely plundered or picked clean; to
export commodities destined for developed mar- ensure their long-run usefulness, peripheral re-
kets. Frank (1967, 1969), an early proponent, es- gions are allowed, indeed encouraged, to develop.
tablished the premise for dependency theory; con- Urbanization, industrialization, commercialization
temporary underdevelopment is a result of an of agriculture, and more expedient social, legal,
international division of labor exploited by capital- and political structures are induced. In this way
ist interests. the core not only guarantees a stable supply of raw
materials, but a market for finished goods. With
Frank’s innovation was to incorporate the the bulk of economic surplus exported to the core,
vantagepoint of underdeveloped countries experi- the less-developed region is powerless to dissemi-
encing capital infusion into the discussion of the nate change or innovation across multiple realms.
dynamics of economic, social, and political change. Dos Santos distinguished colonial, financial-indus-
In so doing he discounted Western and European trial, and technological-industrial forms of depend-
models of modernization as self-serving, ethno- encies. Under colonialism there is outright control
centric, and apolitical. He asserted that explana- and expropriation of valued resources by absentee
tions of modernization have been disassociated decision makers. The financial-industrial dimen-
from the colonialism that fueled industrial and sion is marked by a locally productive economic
economic developments characteristic of the mod- sector characterized by widespread specialization
ern era. However, much of the first wave of mod- and focus ministering primarily to the export sec-
ernization might have been driven by intrinsic, tor that coexists alongside an essential subsistence
internal factors; more recent development has sector. The latter furnishes labor and resources
taken place in light of change external to individu- but accrues little from economic gains made in the
al countries. Central to Frank’s contention was a export sector. In effect, two separate economies
differentiation of undeveloped from underdevel- exist side by side.
oped countries. In the latter, a state of dependency
exists as an outgrowth of a locality’s colonial rela- In the third form of dependency, technologi-
tionship with ‘‘advanced’’ areas. Frank referred to cal-industrial change takes place in developing
the ‘‘development of underdevelopment’’ and the regions but is customarily channeled and mandat-
domination of development efforts by advanced ed by external interests. As the core extends its
countries, using a ‘‘metropolis–satellite’’ analogy catchment area, it maximizes its ascendancy by
to denote the powerful center out of which innova- promoting a dispersed, regionalized division of
tions emerge and a dependent hinterland is held labor to maximize its returns. International mar-
in its sway. He spoke of a chain of exploitation—or ket considerations affect the types of activities
the flow and appropriation of capital through local export sectors are permitted to engage in by
successive metropolis–satellite relationships, each restricting the infusion of capital for specified
participating in a perpetuation of relative inequali- purposes only. So, for example, the World Bank
ties even while experiencing some enrichment. makes loans for certain forms of productive activi-
Galtung (1972) characterized this same relation- ty while eschewing others, and, as a result, highly
ship in terms of ‘‘core and periphery,’’ each with segmented labor markets occur as internal inequi-
something to offer the other, thereby fostering a ties proliferate. The international division of la-
symbiotic but lopsided relationship. The effect is a bor is reflected in local implementation of capi-
sharp intersocietal precedence wherein the domi- tal-intensive technology, improvements in the
nant core grows and becomes more complex, infrastructure—transportation, public facilities,
while the satellite is subordinated through the communications—and, ultimately, even social pro-
transfer of economic surpluses to the core in spite gramming occurring principally in central enclaves
of any absolute economic changes that may occur or along supply corridors that service export trade
(Hechter 1975). (Hoogvelt 1977; Jaffee 1985; So 1990). Dos Santos

640

DEPENDENCY THEORY

maintained that the balance of payments is ma- (1988) put it, even per capita income figures may
nipulated, ex parte, not only to bring about de- be insufficient as they represent averages while
sired forms of change, but to ensure the outflow GDP may be suspect in light of differences be-
of capital accumulation to such a degree that tween economic growth and distributive develop-
decapitalization of the periphery is inescapable. ment. Finally, although local economies may mani-
Or, at the very least, that capitalist-based economic fest substantial growth, profits are exported along
development leaves local economies entirely de- with products so that capital accumulation is not at
pendent on the vagaries of markets well beyond the point of production in the periphery but at the
their control. International interests establish the core. In its various guises, and despite substantial
price of local export products and also set pur- criticisms, dependency theory provides global-ori-
chase prices of those technological-industrial prod- enting principles for analyses of international capi-
ucts essential to maintaining the infrastructure of talism, interlocking monetary policies, and their
development. There may be a partial diffusion of role in domestic policy in developing countries.
technology, since growth in the periphery also
enhances profits for the core, but it also creates Baran’s (1957) analysis of the relationship be-
unequal pockets of surplus labor in secondary tween India and Great Britain is frequently cited as
labor markets, thereby impeding growth of inter- an early effort to examine the aftermath of coloni-
nal markets as well as deteriorating the quality of alism. The imperialism of Great Britain was said to
life for the general populace (Portes 1976; Jaffee 1985). exploit India, fostering a one-sided extraction of
raw materials and the imposition of impediments
Because international capital is able to stipu- to industrialization, except insofar as they were
late the terms of the exchange, external forces beneficial to Great Britain. Precolonial India was
shape local political processes if only through thought to be a locus of other-worldly philoso-
disincentives for capitalization of activities not phies and self-sustaining subsistence production.
contributing to export trade (Cardoso and Faletto Postcolonial India came to be little more than a
1979). As Amin (1976) pointed out, nearly all production satellite in which local elites relished
development efforts are geared to enhancing pro- their relative advantages as facilitators of British
ductivity and value in the export sector, even as capitalism. In Baran’s view, Indian politics, educa-
relative disadvantages accrue in other sectors and tion, finance, and other institutional arrangements
result in domestic policies aimed at ensuring sta- were restructured to secure maximal gain to Brit-
bility in the export sector above all else. Internal ish enterprise. With independence, sweeping changes
inequalities are thereby exacerbated as those fac- were undertaken, including many exclusionary
ets of the economy in contact with international practices, as countermeasures to the yoke of colo-
concerns become more capital intensive and in- nial rule.
creasingly affluent while other sectors languish as
they shoulder the transaction costs for the entire Latin American concerns gave rise to the de-
process. One consequence of the social relations pendency model, and many of the dependistas, as
of the new production arrangements standing side they were originally known, have concentrated on
by side with traditional forms is a highly visible regional case studies to outline the nature of con-
appearance of obsolescence as status in conferred tact with international capitalism. For the most
by and derived from a ‘‘narrow primary produc- part they focused less on colonialism per se and
tion structure’’ (Hoogvelt 1977, p.96). DeJanvry more on Dos Santos’s (1971) second and third
(1981) spoke of the social disarticulation that re- types of dependency. Despite substantial resourc-
sults as legitimization and primacy are granted to es, countries in the region found themselves bur-
those deemed necessary to maintain externally dened with inordinate trade deficits and interna-
valued economic activities. Although overall eco- tional debt loads which had the potential to
nomic growth may occur as measured by the value inundate them (Sweezy and Magdoff 1984). As a
of exports relative to Gross Domestic Product consequence, one debt restructuring followed an-
(GDP), debt loads remain high and internal dis- other to ensure the preservation of gains already
parities bleak as few opportunities for redistribution made, to maintain some modicum of political
occur even if local decision makers were so in- stability, and to ensure that interest payments
clined in the face of crushing debt-service. As Ake continued or, in worst-case scenarios, bad debts

641

DEPENDENCY THEORY

could be written down and tax obligations re- but able, as well, to absorb incoming consumer
duced. In many instances the World Bank and the goods. In the process, internal inequalities are
International Monetary Fund (IMF) exercised con- heightened in the face of wide-ranging economic
trol and supervision, one consequence of this dualities as the physical quality of life for those
action being promotion of political regimes un- segments of the population not immediately nec-
likely to challenge the principle of the loans (So essary to export and production suffer as a
1990). Chile proved an exception, but one with consequence.
disastrous and disruptive consequences. In all cases,
to default would be to undermine those emolu- In his analysis of Brazil, Cardoso also broad-
ments and privileges accorded local elites likely to ened the discussion to political consequences of
seek further rather than fewer contacts with exter- dependency spurred by capital penetration. His
nal capital. intent was not to imply that only a finite range of
consequences may occur, but to suggest that local
Dos Santos’s third form of dependency has patterns of interaction, entitlements, domination,
also been widely explored. Landsberg (1979) looked conflict, and so on have a reciprocal impact on the
to Asia to find empirical support. Through an conditions of dependency. By looking at changes
analysis of manufacturing relationships in Hong occurring under military rule in Brazil, Cardoso
Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea with succeeded in demonstrating that foreign capital
the industrial West, he concluded that despite predominated in essential manufacturing and com-
improvement in local circumstances, relative con- mercial arenas (foreign ownership of industries in
ditions remained little affected due to the domina- Brazil’s state of Rio Grande do Sul were so exten-
tion of manufacturing and industrial production sive that Brazilian ownership was notable for being
by multinational corporations. These corporations an exception). At the same time, internal dispari-
moved production ‘‘off-shore,’’ to Asia or other ties were amplified as interests supportive of for-
less-developed regions, in order to limit capitaliza- eign capital gained advantage at the expense of
tion and labor costs while selling ‘‘on-shore,’’ there- any opposition. In the process, wages and other
by maximizing profits. Landsberg asserted that labor-related expenses tended not to keep pace
because external capital shapes the industrializa- with an expanding economy, thereby resulting in
tion of developing nations, the latter becomes so ever-larger profit margins. As the military and the
specialized as to have little recourse when interna- bourgeoisie served at the behest of multinational
tional monopolistic practices become unbearable. corporations, they defined the interests of Brazil
to be consonant with their own.
Few more eloquent defenders of the broad
dependency perspective have emerged than Bra- By the early 1980s the Brazilian economy had
zil’s Cardoso (1973, 1977). He labeled his render- stagnated, and as the country entered the new
ing a historical-structural model to connote the man- millennium it appeared headed for recursive hard
ner in which local traditions, preexisting social times. Evans (1983) examined how what he termed
patterns, and the time frame of contact serve to the ‘‘triple alliance’’—the state, private, and inter-
color the way in which generalized patterns of national capital interests—combined to alter the
dependency play out. He also coined the phrase Brazilian economic picture pretty drastically while
associated-dependent development to describe the nur- managing to preserve their own interests. In an
turing of circumscribed internal prosperity in or- effort to continue an uninterrupted export of
der to enhance profit realization on investments profits, international capitalists permitted some
(Cardoso 1973). He recognized that outright ex- accumulation among a carefully circumscribed
ploitation may generate immediate profit but can local elite, so that each shared in the largess of
only lead to stagnation over the long run. Indeed, favorable political decisions and state-sponsored
the fact that many former colonies remain eco- ventures. Still, incongruities abounded; per capita
nomic losers seems to suggest that global develop- wages fell as GDP increased and consumer goods
ment has not been ubiquitous (Bertocchi and flourished as necessities became unattainable. At
Conova 1996). Instead, foreign capital functions the same time, infant and female mortality re-
as a means to development, underwriting dynamic mained high and few overall gains in life expectan-
progress in those sectors likely to further exports cy were experienced. An exacerbation of local

642

DEPENDENCY THEORY

inequalities may have contributed to the down- Nearly all advocates of dependency models
swing but so too did international financial shifts contend that many facets of less-developed coun-
which eventually dictated that the majority of new tries, from structure of the labor force to mortali-
loans were earmarked for servicing old debts. ty, public health, forms and types of services pro-
vided, and the role of the state in public welfare
In the face of these shifts, foreign capital programs, are products of the penetration of ex-
gained concessions, subsidies, and favored-nation ternal capital and the particulars of activities in the
accommodations. The contradictions proliferat- export sector. As capital-intensive production ex-
ed. Unable to follow through on promises to local pands, surplus labor is relegated back to agrarian
capital, the Brazilian government had little choice pursuits or to other tertiary and informal labor. It
but to rescind previous agreements, at the same also fosters a personal-services industry in which
time incurring the unintended consequence of marginal employees provide service to local elites
reducing regional market-absorption capabilities. but whose own well-being is dependent on the
Without new orders and in the face of loan pay- economic well-being of the elites. Distributional
ments, local capital grew disillusioned and moder- distortions, as embodied in state-sponsored social
ated its support for state initiatives despite a coer- policies, are also thought to reflect the presence of
cive bureaucracy that sent Brazil to the verge of external capitalism (Kohli et al. 1984; Clark and
economic failure. The value of Evans’s work is that Phillipson 1991). Evans is unmistakable: the rela-
it highlights the entanglements imposed on local tionship of dependency and internal inequality
politics, policies, and capitalists by a dependent- ‘‘. . . is one of the most robust, quantitative, aggre-
development agenda lacking significant national gate findings available’’ (1979, p.532).
autonomy. What became apparent was that gov-
ernments legitimate themselves more in terms of Not everyone is convinced. As investigations
multinational interests than in terms of local capi- of dependency theory proliferated, many investi-
tal—and certainly more than in terms of local less- gators failed to find significant effects that could
privileged groups seeking to influence govern- be predicted by the model (Dolan and Tomlin
ment expenditures. In an examination of forty-five 1980). In fact, Gereffi’s (1979) review of quantita-
less-developed countries, Semyonov and Lewin- tive studies of ‘‘third world’’ development led him
Epstein (1996) discovered that though external to maintain that there was little to support the
influences shape the growth of productive servic- belief that investment of foreign capital had any
es, internal processes frequently remain capable discernable effect on long-term economic gain. In
of moderating the effect these changes have on fact, it is commonly claimed that most investiga-
other sectors. tions rely on gross measures of the value of exports
relative to GDP, thus treating all exports as con-
In an analysis of Peru, Becker (1983) contend- tributing equally to economic growth (Talbot 1998).
ed that internal alignments created close allegiances But when a surplus of primary commodities, ‘‘raw’’
based on mutual interests and that hegemonic extraction or agricultural products, is exported,
control of alliances in local decision making leads prices become unstable, with the consequences
to the devaluing and disenfranchising of those being felt most explicitly in producing regions.
who challenge business as usual or represent old When manufactured goods are exported, prices
arrangements. Bornschier (1981) asserted that in- remain more stable, and local economies are less
ternal inequalities increase and the rate of eco- affected. Relying on covariant analysis of vertical
nomic growth decreases in inverse proportion to trade (export of raw materials, import of manufac-
the degree of dependency and in light of narrow tured goods), commodity concentration, and ex-
sectoral targeting of foreign capital’s development port processing, Jaffee (1985) maintained that when
dollars. A recurrent theme running through their exports grow so too does overall economic viabili-
findings and those of other researchers is that ty. Yet he did note that consideration of economic
internal economic disparities grow unchecked as vulnerabilities and export enclaves does yield ‘‘con-
tertiary-sector employment eventually becomes the ditional effects’’ whereby economic growth is sig-
predominant form (Bornschier 1981; Semyonov nificantly reduced or even takes a negative turn.
and Lewin-Epstein 1986; Delacroix and Ragin 1978;
Chase-Dunn 1981; Boyce 1992). In their research on what is sometimes termed
the ‘‘resource curse’’ in resource-rich countries,

643

DEPENDENCY THEORY

Auty (1993) and Khalil and Mansour (1993) sug- 1977; Bertocchi and Canova 1996). In their investi-
gest that competition between export sectors such gation of former colonies in Africa, Bertocchi and
as minerals, oil, and agriculture often impedes Canova (1996) concluded that colonial status is
prosperity of the other two or one another. In central to explaining relatively poor economic
countries where that occurs, governments tend to performance in ensuing years.
adopt lax economic policies that, for example,
increase agricultural dependencies in favor of oil Proponents have also turned to sophisticated
exports. Internal conflicts then become self-per- statistical procedures to elucidate their claims. For
petuating and play out in the physical and eco- example, Bertocchi and Canova (1996) ran regres-
nomic well-being of the populace. Some investiga- sion models on forty-six former colonies and de-
tors also point out that the internal dynamics of pendencies in Africa to test their contention that
different types of export commodities will have colonialization makes a difference in subsequent
differential impacts on the economy as a whole societal and economic well-being. In a separate
and on state bureaucracies as differing degrees of examination of state size and debt size among
infrastructure are implicated (Talbot 1998). African nations, Bradshaw and Tshandu (1990)
concluded that international capital penetration
A number of critics have asserted that depend- in the face of a mounting debt crisis may precipi-
ency theory is flawed, fuzzy, and unable to with- tate antagonism and austerity measures as the IMF
stand empirical scrutiny (Peckenham 1992; Ake and foreign capital debt claims are pitted against
1988; Becker 1983). Even Marxist theorists find local claimants such as governmental subsidies
fault with dependency theory for overemphasizing and wages. In discussing capital penetration and
external, exploitative factors at the expense of the debt crises facing many developing nations,
attention to the role of local elite (Shannon 1996). Bradshaw and Huang (1991) attributed incidences
Other critics have focused on the evidence mus- of political turmoil to austerity measures imposed
tered and suggested that only about one-third of on domestic welfare programs by IMF conditions
the variance in inequality among nations is ac- and transnational financial institutions. They went
counted for by penetration of multinational cor- on to assert that dependency theorists must take
porations or other forms of foreign investment into consideration international recessions and
(Kohli et al. 1984; Bornschier, Chase-Dunn, and global monetary crises if they are to understand
Rubinson 1978). Interestingly, still others have structural accommodations and shifts in the quali-
concluded that economic development of the type ty of life in developing nations. In light of inter-
being discussed here is a significant facilitator for locking monetary policies, a single country teeter-
political democracy (Bollen 1983). ing on the brink of economic adversity portends
consequences for not only its trading partners but
Defenders react by challenging measures of many other countries as well.
operationalization, the way variables are defined,
and whether the complex of concepts embraced Several dependency analysts have utilized ad-
by the multidimensionality of the notion of de- vanced analytic techniques to examine whether
pendency can be assessed in customary ways or in income inequality within countries is related to
the absence of a comparative framework juxtapos- status in the world economy (Rubinson 1976; Lon-
ing developing nations with their industrial coun- don and Robinson 1989; Boyce 1993). Both Rubinson
terparts (Ragin 1983; Robinson and Holtzman (1976) and London and Robinson (1989) looked
1982; Boyce 1993). Efforts to isolate commodity at interlocking world economies and their affect
concentration and multinational corporate invest- on governmental bureaucracies and internal struc-
ments have not proven to be reliable indicators tural differentiation. London and Robinson (1989)
and, as noted, even per capita GDP has its detrac- noted that the extent of multinational corporate
tors. While important questions on heterogeneity, penetration, and indirectly, its affect on income
dispersion, or heteroskedasticity can be addressed inequality, is associated with political malaise.
by slope differences and recognized estimation Walton and Ragin (1990) concurred, maintaining
techniques (Delacroix and Ragin 1978), propo- that the involvement of international economic
nents of the model are adamant that contextual- interests in domestic political-economic policy com-
ized historical analysis is not only appropriate but bine with ‘‘overurbanization’’ and associated de-
mandated by the logic of dependency itself (Bach pendency to help pave the way to political protest.

644

DEPENDENCY THEORY

Boswell and Dixon (1990) carried the analysis a corporations themselves. Yet state participation is
step further. Using regression and path analysis, undoubtedly necessary as a kind of subsidization
they examined both economic and military de- of multinational corporate interests and as a means
pendency, concluding that both forms contribute for providing local management that, in addition
to political instability through their effects on to facilitating political compliance and other func-
domestic class and state structures. They asserted tions, promotes capital concentration for more
that corporate penetration impedes real growth efficient marketing and the maintenance of de-
while exacerbating inequalities and the type of mand for existing goods and services. Thus pro-
class polarization that leads to political violence. In duction, consumption, and political ideologies are
his analysis of the economic shambles created in transplanted globally, legitimated, and yield a thor-
the Philippines under Ferdinand Marcos, Boyce oughgoing stratification that, while it cuts across
(1993) concluded that the development strategies national boundaries, always creates precedence at
adopted during the Marcos era were economically the local level.
disastrous for the bulk of the populace as ‘‘imper-
fections’’ in world markets precluded even modest Dependency theory and collateral notions have
capital accumulation for all but a privileged few. become dispositional concepts utilized by numer-
Though not speaking strictly in terms of depend- ous investigations of the effect of dependent de-
ency theory, Milner and Keohane (1996) point out velopment on diverse dimensions of inequality.
that domestic policies are inevitably affected by Using a liberal interpretation of the model, many
global economic currents insofar as new policy investigators have sought to understand how po-
preferences and coalitions are created as a result, litical economy affects values, types of rationality,
by triggering domestic political and economic cri- definitions of efficiency and so on, as well as
ses or by the undermining of governmental au- evaluations of those who do not share those val-
tonomy and thereby control over local economic ues, views, or competencies. The social organiza-
policy. Dependency theorists customarily incorpo- tion of the marketplace is thus thought to exert
rate attention to all three in addressing the role suzerainty over many types of social relationships
international markets play in local economic policy. and will continue to drive analysis of internal
disparities in underdeveloped regions (Zeitlin 1972;
Alternative interpretations of underdevelopment Hechter 1975; Ward 1990; Shen and Williamson
began to gain strength in the early 1970s. The next 1997). It remains to be seen how the absence of
step was a world systems perspective, which saw Soviet influence, often underemphasized during
global unity accompanied by an international divi- the formative period of dependency theory, will
sion of labor with corresponding political align- play out in analyses of international economic
ments. Wallerstein (1974), Chirot and Hall (1982), development in the twenty-first century (Pai 1991).
and others shifted the focus from spatial defini-
tions of nation-states as the unit of analysis to Substituting a figurative, symbolic relation-
corporate actors as the most significant players ship for spatial criteria, a generalized dependency
able to shape activities—including the export of model alloyed ideas of internal colonialism and
capital—according to their own interests. Wallerstein has been widely employed as an explanatory frame-
suggested that the most powerful countries of the work wherein social and psychological distance
world constitute a de facto collective core that from the center of power is seen as a factor in
disperses productive activities so that dependent shaping well-being and other aspects of quality of
industrialization is an extension of what had previ- life such as school enrollment, labor force partici-
ously been geographically localized divisions of pation, social insurance programs, longevity and
labor. World systems analysts see multinational so on. Likely as not, the political economics of
corporations rather than nation-states as the means development will continue to inform analysis of
by which articulation of global economic arrange- ancillary spheres for some time to come.
ments is maintained. So powerful have multinationals
become that even the costs of corporate organiza- Gamson’s (1968) concept of ‘‘stable
tion are borne by those countries in which the unrepresentation’’ helped emphasize how the poli-
corporations do business, with costs calculated tics of inequality are perpetuated by real or em-
according to terms dictated by the multinational blematic core complexes. Internal colonialism and

645

DEPENDENCY THEORY

political economic variants have been widely adopt- high partly because child labor provides an inte-
ed in examinations of many types of social prob- gral component of household income.
lems. Blauner’s (1970) analysis of American racial
problems is illustrative of one such application. So Variation in the life experiences of
too is Marshall’s (1985) investigation of patterns of subpopulations is one of the enduring themes of
industrialization, investment debt, and export de- sociology. Despite wide disparities, a central focus
pendency on the status of women in sixty less- has been the interconnections of societal arrange-
developed countries. While she was unable to ments and political, economic, and individual cir-
draw firm conclusions relative to dependency per cumstances. It is through them that norms of
se, Marshall did assert that with thoughtful specifi- reciprocity and distributive justice are fostered
cation, gender patterns in employment and educa- and shared. As contexts change, so too will norms
tion may be found to be associated with dependen- of what is appropriate. The linkage between politi-
cy-based economic change. In a manner similar to cal and moral economies is nowhere more appar-
Blauner, Townsend (1981) spoke of ‘‘the struc- ent than in dependency theory as it facilitates our
tured dependency of the elderly’’ as a consequence understanding of the dynamic relationship be-
of economic utility in advanced industrial socie- tween individuals and structural arrangements.
ties. Many analysts have advocated the use of
dependency-driven approaches to examine vari- REFERENCES
ous consequences of dependency and develop-
ment such as fertility, mortality, differential life Addo, Herb 1996 ‘‘Developmentalism: A Eurocentric
expectancy, health patterns, and education (Hen- Hoax, Delusion, and Chicanery.’’ In Sing C. Chew
dricks 1982, 1995; Neysmith and Edwardth 1984; and Robert A. Denemark, eds., The Underdevelopment
London 1988; Ward 1990; Lena and London 1993; of Development. Thousand Oaks, Calif.: Sage.
Shen and Williamson 1997). Such a perspective
casts the situation of the elderly as a consequence Ake, Claude 1988 ‘‘The Political Economy of Develop-
of shifts in economic relationships and state poli- ment: Does it Have a Future?’’International Social
cies designed to provide for their needs. For exam- Science Journal 40:485–497.
ple, Neysmith (1991) maintained that as debts are
refinanced to retain foreign capital, domestic poli- Amin, Samir 1976 Unequal Development: An Essay on the
cies are rewritten in such a way as to disenfranchise Social Formation of Peripheral Capitalism. New York:
vulnerable populations within those countries in Monthly Review Press.
favor of debt service. To support her point,
Neysmith cites a United Nations finding that hu- Auty, Richard M. 1993 ‘‘Sustainable Development in
man development programs tend to benefit males, Mineral Exporting Economies.’’Resources-Policy 19:14–
households in urban areas, and middle- or higher- 29 (cited in Talbot).
income people, while relatively fewer are targeted
at women, rural residents, or low-income persons Bach, Robert 1977 ‘‘Methods of Analysis in the Study of
(United Nations Department of International Eco- the World Economy: A Comment on Rubinson.’’
nomic and Social Affairs 1988). Interestingly, ac- American Sociological Review 42:811–814.
cording to a United Nations report issued two
decades ago, women account for approximately Baran, Paul 1957 The Political Economy of Growth. New
half the world’s adult population, one-third of the York: Monthly Review Press.
formal labor force, and two-thirds of all the record-
ed work hours, yet receive one-tenth of the earned Becker, David G. 1983 The New Bourgeoisie and the Limits
income (cited in Tiano 1988; Ward 1990). In an of Dependency: Mining, Class, and Power in ‘‘Revolution-
examination of capital penetration in eighty-six ary’’ Peru. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
countries, Shen and Williamson (1997) suggest
that as penetration increases and sectorial ine- Bertocchi, Graziella, and Fabio Canova 1996 ‘‘Did Colo-
qualities are exacerbated between tertiary and nization Matter for Growth? An Empirical Explo-
informal labor markets vis-à-vis other sectors, there ration into the Historical Causes of Africa’s
is a degradation of women’s status in all economic Underdevelopment.’’ Discussion Paper No. 1444,
activities. At the same time, fertility rates remain Center for Economic Policy Research, London.

Blauner, Robert 1970 ‘‘Internal Colonialism and Ghetto
Revolt.’’ In J. H. Skolnick and E. Curries, eds., Crisis
in American Institutions. Boston: Little, Brown.

Bollen, Kenneth 1983 ‘‘World System Position, De-
pendency, and Democracy: The Cross-National Evi-
dence.’’ American Sociological Review 48:468–479.

646

DEPENDENCY THEORY

Bornschier, Volker 1981 ‘‘Dependent Industrialization in Developing Countries.’’ International Organization
in the World Economy.’’ Journal of Conflict Resolution 34:41–63.
25:371–400.
Dos Santos, Theotonio 1971 ‘‘The Structure of Depend-
———, C. Chase-Dunn, and R. Rubinson 1978 ‘‘Cross- ence.’’ In K. T. Kan and Donald C. Hodges, eds.,
National Evidence of the Effects of Foreign Invest- Readings in U.S. Imperialism. Boston: Expanding
ment: A Study of Findings and Analysis.’’ American Horizons.
Journal of Sociology84:651–683.
Evans, Peter 1979 Dependent Development: The Alliance of
Boswell, Terry, and William J. Dixon 1990 ‘‘Dependency Multinational State and Local Capital in Brazil. Prince-
and Rebellion: A Cross-National Analysis.’’ American ton: Princeton University Press.
Sociological Review 55:540–559.
Frank, Andre Gunder 1967 Capitalism and Underdevelopment
Boyce, James K. 1993 The Philippines: The Political Econo- in Latin America. New York: Monthly Review Press.
my of Growth and Impoverishment in the Marcos Era.
Honolulu: University Of Hawaii Press. ——— 1969 Latin America: Underdevelopment or Revolu-
tion. New York: Monthly Review Press.
Bradshaw, York W., and Zwelakhe Tshandu 1990 ‘‘For-
eign Capital Penetration, State Intervention, and Galtung, Johan 1972 ‘‘A Structural Theory of Imperial-
Development in Sub-Saharan Africa.’’ International ism.’’ African Review 1:93–138.
Studies Quarterly 34:229–251.
Gamson, William A. 1968 ‘‘Stable Unrepresentation in
———, and Jie Huang 1991 ‘‘Intensifying Global De- American Society.’’ American Behavioral Scientist
pendency: Foreign Debt, Structural Adjustment, and 12:15–21.
Third World Underdevelopment.’’ Sociological Quar-
terly 32:321–342. Gereffi, Gary 1979 ‘‘A Critical Evaluation of Quantita-
tive, Cross-National Studies of Dependency.’’ Paper
Cardoso, Fernando H. 1973 ‘‘Associated-Dependent presented to International Studies Association An-
Development: Theoretical and Practical Implications.’’ nual Meeting. Toronto, March 1979.
In Alfred Stephen, ed., Authoritarian Brazil. New
Haven: Yale University Press. Hechter, Michael 1975 Internal Colonialism: The Celtic
Fringe in British National Development, 1536–1966.
——— 1977 ‘‘The Consumption of Dependency Theo- Berkeley: University of California Press.
ry in the United States.’’ Latin American Research
Review 12:7–24. Hendricks, Jon 1982 ‘‘The Elderly in Society: Beyond
Modernization.’’ Social Science History 6:321–345.
———, and Enzo Faletto 1979 Dependency and Develop-
ment In Latin America. Berkeley, Calif.: University of ——— 1995 ‘‘The Contributions of Older Women to
California Press. Social and Economic Development.’’Ageing Interna-
tional (July): 4–9.
Chase-Dunn, Christopher 1981 ‘‘Instate System and
Capitalist World-Economy: One Logic or Two?’’ In- Hoogvelt, A. M. M. 1977 The Sociology of Developing
ternational Studies Quarterly 25:19–42. Societies. Atlantic Heights, N.J.: Humanities Press.

Chirot, Daniel, and Thomas D. Hall 1982 ‘‘World Sys- Jaffee, David 1985 ‘‘Export Dependence and Economic
tem Theory.’’ Annual Review of Sociology 8:81–106. Growth: A Reformulation and Respecification.’’ So-
cial Forces 64:102–118.
Clark, Roger, and Rachel Filinson 1991 ‘‘Multinational
Corporate Penetration, Industrialism, Region, and Keith, Nelson W. 1997 Reframing International Develop-
Social Security Expenditures: A Cross-National Analy- ment: Globalism, Postmodernity and Difference. Thou-
sis.’’ International Journal of Aging and Human Develop- sand Oaks, Calif.: Sage.
ment 32:143–159.
Khalil, Mohammad, and Ali H. Mansour 1993 ‘‘Devel-
DeJanvry, Alain 1981 The Agrarian Question and Reform- opment Patterns of Oil Exporting Countries.’’ Jour-
ism in Latin America. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins nal of Economics and Finance 17:43–49.
University Press.
Kohli, Atul, M. F. Altfeld, S. Lotfian, and R. Mardon
Delacroix, Jacques, and Charles Ragin 1978 ‘‘Moderniz- 1984 ‘‘Inequality in The Third World.’’Comparative
ing Institutions, Mobilization, and Third World De- Political Studies 17:283–318.
velopment.’’ American Journal of Sociology 84:123–149.
Landsberg, Martin 1979 ‘‘Export-Led Industrialization
Dolan, M., and B. W. Tomlin 1980 ‘‘First World–Third in the Third World: Manufacturing Imperialism.’’
World Linkages: The Effects of External Relations Review of Radical Political Economics 11:50–63.
upon Economic Growth, Imbalance, and Inequality
Lena, Hugh F., and Bruce London 1993 ‘‘The Political
and Economic Determinants of Health Outcomes: A

647

DEPRESSION

Cross-National Analysis.’’ International Journal of Health Shannon, Thomas R. 1996 An Introduction to the World-
Services 23:585–602. System Perspective. Boulder, Colo.: Westview.

London, Bruce 1988 ‘‘Dependence, Distorted Develop- Shen, Ce, and John B. Williamson 1997 ‘‘Child Mortali-
ment, and Fertility Trends in Noncore Nations: A ty, Women’s Status, Economic Dependency, and
Structural Analysis of Cross-National Data.’’ Ameri- State Strength: A Cross-National Study of Less Devel-
can Sociological Review53:606–618. oped Countries.’’ Social Forces 76:667–687.

———, and Thomas D. Robinson 1989 ‘‘The Effects of So, Alvin Y. 1990 Social Change and Development: Mod-
International Dependence on Income Inequality and ernization, Dependency, and World-System Theories.
Political Violence.’’ American Sociological Review Newbury Park, Calif.: Sage.
54:305–308.
Sweezy, Paul, and Harry Magdoff 1984 ‘‘The Two Faces
Marshall, Susan E. 1985 ‘‘Development, Dependence, of Third World Debt: A Fragile Financial Environ-
and Gender Inequality in the Third World.’’ Interna- ment and Debt Enslavement.’’ Monthly Review 35:1–10.
tional Studies Quarterly 29:217–240.
Talbot, John M. 1998 ‘‘Export Sectors and Economic
Milner, Helen V., and Robert O. Keohane 1996 Development: Do Sectors Shape the Development
‘‘Internationalization and Domestic Policies: A Con- Prospects of States?’’ Paper presented to the annual
clusion.’’ In Robert O. Keohand and Helen V. Milner, meeting of the American Sociological Association.
eds., Internationalization and Domestic Politics. Cam- San Francisco, August 21–25, 1998.
bridge, Eng.: Cambridge University Press.
Tiano, Susan 1988 ‘‘Women’s Work in the Public and
Neysmith, Sheila M. 1991 ‘‘Dependency Among Third Private Spheres: A Critique and Reformulation.’’ In
World Elderly: A Need for New Direction in the M. Francis Abraham and P. Subhadra Abraham, eds.,
Nineties.’’ In M. Minkler and C. L. Estes, eds., Critical Women, Development and Change: The Third World
Perspectives on Aging: The Political and Moral Economy Experience. Bristol, Ind.: Wyndham Hall Press.
of Growing Old. Amityville, N.Y.: Baywood Publishing.
Townsend, Peter 1981 ‘‘The Structured Dependency of
———, and Joey Edwardth 1984 ‘‘Economic Dependen- the Elderly.’’ Ageing and Society 1:5–28.
cy in the 1980s: Its Impact on Third World Elderly.’’
Ageing and Society 5:21–44. United Nations Department of International Economic
and Social Affairs 1988 Human Resources Develop-
O’Donnell, Guillermo 1988 Bureaucratic Authoritarian- ment: A Neglected Dimension of Development Strategy.
ism: Argentina, 1966–1973, in Comparative Perspective. New York: United Nations.
Berkeley: University of California Press.
Wallerstein, Immanuel 1974 ‘‘The Rise and Future De-
Packenham, Robert A. The Dependency Movement: Schol- mise of the World Capitalist System: Concepts for
arship and Politics in Development Studies. Cambridge, Comparative Analysis.’’ Comparative Studies in Society
Mass.: Harvard University Press. and History 16:387–415.

Pai, Sudha 1991 ‘‘Problems in the Comparative Analysis Walton, John, and Charles Ragin 1990 ‘‘Global and
of Third World Societies.’’ Indian Journal of Social National Sources of Political Protest: Third World
Science 4:591–603. Responses to the Debt Crisis.’’ American Sociological
Review 55:876–890.
Portes, Alejandro 1976 ‘‘On the Sociology of National
Development: Theories and Issues.’’American Journal Ward, Kathryn B. (ed.) 1990 Women Workers and Global
of Sociology 29:339–357. Restructuring. Cornell, N.Y.: ILR Press.

Ragin, Charles 1983 ‘‘Theory and Method in the Study Zeitlin, I. M. 1972 Capitalism and Imperialism. Chicago:
of Dependency and International Inequality.’’ Inter- Markham.
national Journal of Comparative Sociology 24:121–136.
JON HENDRICKS
Rubinson, Richard 1976 ‘‘The World-Economy and the
Distribution of Income within States: A Cross-Na- DEPRESSION
tional Study.’’ American Sociological Review 41:638–659.
INTRODUCTION
———, and Deborah Holtzman 1982 ‘‘Comparative
Dependence and Economic Development.’’Interna- The term ‘‘depression’’ covers a wide range of
tional Journal of Comparative Sociology 22:86–101. thoughts, behaviors, and feelings. It is also one of
the most commonly used terms to describe a wide
Semyonov, Moshe, and Noah Lewin-Epstein 1986 ‘‘Eco- range of negative moods. In fact there are many
nomic Development, Investment Dependence, and
the Rise of Services in Less Developed Nations.’’
Social Forces 64:582–598.

648

DEPRESSION

types of depression, each of which vary in the kinds of stressful events like losing a job; being
number of symptoms, their severity, and persist- rejected by a lover; being unable to pay the rent or
ence. The prevalence of depression is surprisingly having high debts; or losing everything in a fire,
high. Between 5 and 12 percent of men and 10 to earthquake, or flood; may also bring on feelings of
20 percent of women in the United States will depression. Most of these feelings based on tem-
suffer from a major depressive episode at some porary situations are perfectly normal and tend to
time in their lives. Approximately half of these fade away.
individuals will become depressed more than once,
and up to 10 percent will experience manic phases A more severe type of depression than dysphoric
where they are elated and excited, in addition to mood, dysthymia (from the Greek word for defec-
depressive ones; an illness known as ‘‘manic-de- tive or diseased mood), involves long-term, chron-
pressive’’ or bipolar disorder. Depression can in- ic symptoms that do not disable, but keep those
volve the body, mood, thoughts, and many aspects individuals from functioning at their best or from
of life. It affects the way people eat and sleep, the feeling good. People with dysthymia tend to be
way they feel about themselves, and the way they depressed most of the day, more days than not,
think about things. Without treatment, symptoms based on their own description or the description
can last for weeks, months, or years. Appropriate of others. Dysthymics have a least two of the
treatment, however, can help most people who following symptoms: eating problems, sleeping
suffer from depression. problems, tiredness and concentration problems,
low opinions of themselves, and feelings of hope-
TYPES OF DEPRESSION lessness. Unlike major depression, dysthymics can
be of any age. Often people with dysthymia also
Depression can be experienced for either a short experience major depressive episodes.
period of time or can extend for years. It can range
from causing only minor discomfort, to complete- If ‘‘the blues’’ persist, it is more indicative of
ly mentally and physically crippling the individual. major depression, also referred to as clinical depres-
The former case of short-term, mild depression is sion or a depressive disorder. Major depression is
what is most commonly referred to as ‘‘the blues’’ manifested by a combination of symptoms that
or when people report ‘‘feeling low.’’ It is techni- interfere with the ability to work, sleep, eat, and
cally referred to as dysphoric mood. Feelings of enjoy once-pleasurable activities. These disabling
depression tend to occur in almost all individuals episodes of depression can occur once, twice, or
at some point in their lives, and dsyphoric mood several times in a lifetime. Clinical practitioners
has been associated with many key life events (both clinical psychologists and psychiatrists) make
varying from minor to major life transitions (e.g., use of a multiple-component classification system
graduation, pregnancy, the death of a loved one). designed to summarize the diverse information
The feelings of separation and loss associated with relevant to an individual case rather than to just
leaving a town one has grown up in, moving to a provide a single label. Using a specified set of
new city for a job or school, or even leaving a work criteria in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of
environment that one has grown accustomed to, Mental Disorders (referred to as DSM-IV, American
can cause bouts of depression signaled by a loss of Psychiatric Association 1994), a diagnosis of de-
motivation and energy, and sadness. Other com- pressive disorder includes symptoms such as dis-
mon features of dysphoric mood, include sighing, satisfaction and anxiety; changes in appetite, sleep,
an empty feeling in the stomach, and muscular and psychological and motor functions; loss of
weakness, are also associated with changes such as interest and energy; feelings of guilt; thoughts of
the breakup of a dating relationship, divorce, or death; and diminished concentration. It is impor-
separation. In the case of bereavement, most survi- tant to keep in mind that many of these symptoms
vors experience a dysphoric mood that is usually are also reported by individuals who are not diag-
called grief (although some studies have shown nosed with clinical depression. Only having many
that these feelings may be distinct from depression). of these symptoms at any one time qualifies as
depression. An individual is said to be experienc-
Many of these feelings are seen as represent- ing a ‘‘major depressive episode’’ if he or she
ing the body’s short-term response to stress. Other experiences a depressed mood or a loss of interest

649

DEPRESSION

or pleasure in almost all activities and exhibits at cognitive in nature, although there are also
least four other symptoms from the following list: psychodynamic and behavioral explanations which
marked weight loss or gain when not dieting, are discussed below.
constant sleeping problems, agitated or greatly
slowed-down behavior, fatigue, inability to think Psychodynamic Theories of Depression. The
clearly, feelings of worthlessness, and frequent psychological study of depression was essentially
thoughts about death or suicide. Anyone experi- begun by Sigmund Freud and Karl Abraham, a
encing these symptoms for a prolonged period of German physician. Both described depression as a
time should see a doctor or psychiatrist immediately. complex reaction to the loss of a loved person or
thing. This loss could be real or imagined, through
Another type of depression is bipolar disorder, death, separation, or rejection. For Abraham (1911/
formerly called manic-depressive illness. Not near- 1968), individuals who are vulnerable to depres-
ly as prevalent as other forms of depressive disor- sion experience a marked ambivalence toward
ders, bipolar disorder involves interspersed peri- people, with positive and negative feelings alter-
ods of depression and elation or mania. Sometimes nating and blocking the expression of the other.
the mood switches are dramatic and rapid, but These feelings were seen to be the result of early
most often they are gradual. When in the de- and repeated disappointments. Depression, or mel-
pressed cycle, individuals have any or all of the ancholy, as Freud called it, was grief out of control
symptoms of a depressive disorder. When in the (Freud 1917/1957). Unlike those in mourning,
manic cycle, individuals tend to show inappropri- however, depressed persons appeared to be more
ate elation, social behavior, and irritability; have self-denigrating and lacking self-esteem. Freud theo-
disconnected and racing thoughts; experience se- rized that the anger and disappointment that had
vere insomnia and increased sexual appetite; talk previously been directed toward the lost person or
uncontrollably; have grandiose notions; and dem- thing was internalized, leading to a loss of self-
onstrate a marked increase in energy. Mania often esteem and a tendency to engage in self-criticism.
affects thinking, judgment, and social behavior in Theorists who used a similar approach and modi-
ways that cause serious problems and embarrass- fied Freud’s theories for depression were Sandot
ment. For example, unwise business or financial Rado and Melanie Klein, and most recently John
decisions may be made when an individual is in a Bowlby (1988).
manic phase. Bipolar disorder is often a chronic
condition. For more details on types of depres- Behavioral Theories of Depression. In con-
sion, including symptoms, see either a good text- trast to a focus on early-childhood experiences and
book on abnormal psychology (e.g., Sarason and internal psychological processes, behavioral theo-
Sarason 1999), DSM-IV (American Psychiatric As- ries attempt to explain depression in terms of
sociation 1994) or use the search term ‘‘depres- responses to stimuli and the overgeneralization of
sion’’ on the web site for the National Institute of these responses. For example, loss of interest to a
Health (http://search.info.nih.gov/). wide range of activities (food, sex, etc.) in response
to a specific situation (e.g., loss of a job). The basic
THEORIES OF DEPRESSION idea is that if a behavior is followed or accompa-
nied by something good (a reward), the behavior
Most theorists agree that depression can be best will increase and persist. If the reward is taken
studied using what health psychologists refer to as away, lessened, or worse still, if the behavior is
a biopsychosocial approach. This holds that depres- punished, the behavior will lessen or disappear. B.
sion has a biological component (including genet- F. Skinner, a key figure in the behaviorist move-
ic links and biochemical imbalances), a psycho- ment, postulated that depression was the result of
logical component (including how people think, a weakening of behavior due to the interruption of
feel, and behave), and a social component (includ- an established sequence of behavior that had been
ing family and societal pressures and cultural fac- positively reinforced by the social environment.
tors). Individual theories have tended to empha- For example, the loss of a job would stop a lot of
size one or the other of these components. The the activities that having a salary provides (e.g.,
main theories of depression are biological and dining out often, entertainment). Most behavioral
theories extended this idea, focusing on specific

650

DEPRESSION

others as the sources of reinforcement (e.g., spous- a minor negative exchange within an entire con-
es, friends). versation and interpret this as a sign of complete
rejection. These types of thought patterns, also
Cognitive Theories of Depression. Although referred to as ‘‘automatic thoughts’’ when responses
it is probably indisputable that the final common based on insufficient information are made, are
pathways to clinical depression and even dysphoric persistent and act as negative filters for all of life’s
mood involve biological changes in the brain, the experiences. Excellent descriptions of the way these
most influential theories of depression today focus thoughts operate can be found in books by the
on the thoughts of the depressed individual. This psychologist Norman Endler (Holiday of Darkness,
cognitive perspective also recognizes that behav- 1990) and the writer William Styron (Darkness
ior and biochemistry are important components Visible: A Memoir of Madness, 1982).
of depression, but it is more concerned with the
quality, nature, and patterns of thought processes. Together with the idea that depressed indi-
Cognitive therapists believe that when depressive viduals mentally distort reality and engage in faulty
cognitions are changed, behavior and underlying processing of information, the most important
biological responses change as well. Cognitive theo- part of Beck’s cognitive model of depression is the
ries of depression differ from behavioral theories notion of a ‘‘negative self-schema.’’ A schema is a
in two major ways (see Gotlieb and Hammen 1992 stored body of knowledge that affects how infor-
for a more detailed description). First, whereas mation is collected, processed, and used, and serves
behavioral theories focus on observable behaviors, the function of efficiency and speed. In the con-
cognitive theories emphasize the importance of text of depression, schemas are mental processes
intangible factors such as attitudes, self-statements, that represent a stable characteristic of the person,
images, memories, and beliefs. Second, cognitive influencing him or her to evaluate and select
approaches to depression consider maladaptive, information from the environment in a negative
irrational, and in some cases, distorted thoughts to and pessimistic direction. Similar to psychoana-
be the cause of the disorder and of its exacerbation lytical theories, negative self-schemas are theo-
and maintenance. Depressive behaviors, negative rized to develop from negative experiences in
moods, lack of motivation, and physical symptoms childhood. These schemas remain with the indi-
that are seen to accompany depression are all seen vidual throughout life, functioning as a vulnera-
as stemming from faulty thought patterns. There bility factor for depression. Cognitive treatments
are three main cognitive theories of depression: of depression necessarily work to change these
Beck’s cognitive-distortion model, Seligman’s learned negative schemas and associated negative-auto-
helplessness model, and the hopelessness theory of matic thought patterns.
depression.
Seligman’s learned helplessness model. Based on
Beck’s cognitive-distortion model. The most influ- work on animals (later replicated in humans),
ential of these theories is Aaron Beck’s cognitive- Martin Seligman’s (1975) theory of learned help-
distortion model of depression (1967). Beck be- lessness and his model of depression holds that
lieves that depression is composed of three fac- when individuals are exposed to uncontrollable
tors: negative thoughts about oneself, the situa- stress they fail to respond to stimulation and show
tion, and the future. A depressed person misinterprets marked decrements in the ability to learn new
facts in a negative way, focuses on negative aspects behaviors. Because this theory did not sufficiently
of a situation, and has no hope for the future. Thus account for the self-esteem problems faced by
any problem or misfortune experienced, like the depressed individuals, it was reformulated by
loss of a job, is completely assumed to be one’s Abramson who hypothesized that together with
own fault. The depressed individual blames these uncontrollable stress, people must also expect that
events on his or her own personal defects. Aware- future outcomes are uncontrollable. When they
ness of these presumed defects becomes so in- believe that these negative uncontrollable out-
tense that it overwhelms any positive aspects of the comes are their own doing (internal versus exter-
self and even ambiguous information is inter- nal), will be stable across time and will apply to
preted as evidence of the defect in lieu of positive everything they do (global), they feel helpless and
explanations. A depressed person might focus on depressed.

651

DEPRESSION

Hopelessness theory of depression. The most re- and respond to, stress (e.g., adrenocorticotropic
cent reformulation of the learned helplessness hormone or ACTH). Depressed patients have re-
theory, referred to as the ‘‘hopelessness theory’’ of peatedly been demonstrated to show abnormal
depression (Abramson, Seligman, and Alloy 1989) functioning of these hormones (see Nemerof 1998
holds that depression is a result of expectations for a detailed review). Another difference is seen
that highly undesired outcomes will occur and that in one of the major systems of the body that affects
one is powerless to change these outcomes. The how we respond to stress; the hypothalamic-pitui-
hopelessness theory of depression is receiving a tary-adrenal (HPA) axis. From the late 1960s and
large amount of attention as it has been found to early 1970s, researchers have found increased ac-
be particularly useful in predicting the likelihood tivity in the HPA axis in unmedicated depressed
of suicide among depressed people. patients as evidenced by increased levels of stress
markers in bodily fluids. Now a large volume of
Biological Theories of Depression. The most studies confirm that substantial numbers of de-
compelling of the recent theories of depression pressed patients display overactivity of the HPA
rely heavily on the biological bases of behavior. axis. According to Charles Nemeroff (1998) and
Biological theories assume the cause of depression his colleagues, and based on studies on animals, all
lies in some physiological problem, either in the these biological factors including genetic inherit-
genes themselves or in the way neurotransmitters ance of depression, neurotransmitter and hormo-
(the chemicals that carry signals between nerve nal levels, and HPA axis and related activity, could
cells in our brains and around our bodies) are relate to early childhood abuse or neglect, al-
produced, released, transported, or recognized though this theory has yet to be fully substantiated.
(see Honig and van Praag 1997 for a detailed The antecedents and consequences notwithstand-
review of biological theories of depression). Most ing, it is well accepted that one of the major causes
of the work focuses on neurotransmitters, espe- of depression is based in our biology.
cially a category of chemicals in our bodies called
the monoamines, the main examples of which are RISK FACTORS
norepinephrine (also called noradrenalin), dopamine,
and serotonin. These chemicals first attracted at- Depression can have many different causes as
tention in the 1950s when physicians discovered indicated by the different theories that have been
that severe depression arose in a subset of people formulated to explain it. Accordingly, there are
who were treated for hypertension with a drug different factors that indicate a risk for depres-
(reserpine) that depleted monoamines. Simulta- sion. Some of the main risk factors for long-term
neously, researchers found that a drug that in- depression include heredity, age, gender, and lack
creased the monoamines, this time given to medi- of social support.
cate tuberculosis, elevated mood in users who
were depressed. Together these results suggested Studies of twins and of families clearly suggest
that low levels of monoamines in the brain cause a strong genetic component to clinical depression,
depression. The most important monoamine seems which increases with genetic closeness. There is a
to be norepinephrine although it is now acknowl- much greater risk of developing a major depres-
edged that changes in levels of this neurochemical sion if one’s identical twin has had it than if one’s
do not influence moods in everyone. Neverthe- parent, brother, or sister developed it. Chances
less, this biochemical theory has received much are even less if no close relatives have ever had it.
experimental support. Furthermore, the younger people are when they
experience depression, the higher the chances
Apart from the neurochemicals, there are also that one of their relatives will also get severely
other physiological differences between depressed depressed. Relatives of people who were over forty
and nondepressed individuals. Hormones are when they first had a major depression have little
chemical substances that circulate in the blood more than the normal risk for depression.
and enable communication between different sys-
tems of the body. Some hormones control the One of the most clear risk factors is gender.
release of other hormones which then stimulate Women are at least twice as likely to experience
growth and help prepare the body to deal with,

652

DEPRESSION

all types of depressed states than are men and especially important in the context of short-term
this seems to occur from an early age. There are depression that can result from events like conflictual
no gender differences in depression rates in work or personal interactions, unemployment, the
prepubescent children, but after the age of fifteen, loss of a job, a relationship break-up, or the loss of
girls and women are about twice as likely to be a loved one.
depressed as boys and men. Many models have
been advanced for how gender differences in de- MEASUREMENT OF DEPRESSION
pression might develop in early adolescence. For
example, one model suggests that the causes of Most of the commonly used techniques to assess
depression can be assumed to be the same for girls for depression come from clinical psychology and
and boys, but these causes become more prevalent are heavily influenced by the cognitive theories of
in girls than in boys in early adolescence. Accord- depression. For example, the work of Beck and
ing to another model, there are different causes of other cognitive theorists has led to the develop-
depression in girls and boys, and the causes of ment of many ways to measure the thoughts that
girls’ depression become more prevalent than the depressed individuals may have. Most of these
causes of boys’ depression in early adolescence. measures are completed by the individuals them-
The model that has received the most support selves, while some are administered in an inter-
suggests that girls are more likely than boys to view format where the therapist asks a series of
carry risk factors for depression even before early questions. Some interviews are delivered by trained
adolescence, but these risk factors lead to depres- clinical administrators (e.g., the Structured Clini-
sion only in the face of challenges that increase in cal Interview for DSM-IV), while others are highly
early adolescence (Nolen-Hoeksema and Girgus structured, can be computer scored to achieve
1994). For a review of the epidemiology of gender diagnoses based on the DSM-IV, and can be ad-
differences in depression including prominent theo- ministered by lay interviewers with minimal train-
ries for why women are more vulnerable to de- ing (e.g., the Diagnostic Interview Schedule). Sepa-
pression, cross-cultural studies of gender differ- rate measures have also been designed for adults
ences in depression, biological explanations for and children to compensate for differences in
the gender difference in depression (including level of comprehension and sophistication, al-
postpartum depression, premenstrual depression, though measures of symptoms and diagnoses in
pubescent depression), personality theories (rela- children and adolescents are less-extensively stud-
tionship with others, assertiveness), and social fac- ied. The methods used work well for children
tors for the gender difference (increases in sexual provided that information from both parent and
abuse in adolescent females) see Susan Nolen- child sources are included in the final decisions.
Hoeksema (1995).
There are different types of self-report meas-
Age by itself is a major risk factor for depres- ures for depression. It can be assessed by having
sion, although as described this varies for each the patient fill out a questionnaire. Because our
gender. For women, the risk for a first episode of thought processes may operate at varying levels of
depression is highest between the ages of twenty consciousness, we may not always be able to access
and twenty-nine. For men, the risk for a first what they are to report on them. For this reason
episode is highest for those aged forty to forty- different cognitive measures of depression were
nine. A related risk concerns when a person was designed to operate at various levels of conscious-
born. People born in recent decades have been ness. For example, the most direct measures ask
found to have an increased risk for depression as about the frequency with which negative automat-
compared to those born in earlier cohorts. ic thoughts have ‘‘popped’’ into a person’s head in
the past week (e.g., ‘‘no one understands me’’).
Another significant risk factor for depression Another type of measure attempts to get at the
is the availability and perception of social support. cognitive and social cognitive mechanisms by which
People who lack close supportive relationships are people formulate their beliefs and expectations.
at added risk for depression. Additionally, the Because many negative thoughts take the form of
presence of supportive others may prevent depres- comparing the self with others, these types of
sion in the face of severe life stressors. Support is

653

DEPRESSION

scales try to understand the negative comparisons. effort. Other self-report measures include the Min-
An example of this type of measure is one where nesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory Depres-
individuals are asked about the circumstances (in- sion Scale (MMPI-D), the Zung Self-Rating Depres-
teractions with people, idle thoughts, etc.), the sion Scale (SDS), and the Depression Adjective
dimensions (social skills, intelligence), the gender, Check List (DACL). Complete descriptions of these
and the type of relationship with the comparison scales can be found in Constance Hammen (1997).
target, and the individual’s mood before and after
the interaction. To get at the least-accessible level TREATMENT
of thoughts, those that are believed to store, or-
ganize, and direct the processing of personally As can be expected, the type of treatment depends
relevant information, researchers have used meas- on the type of depression and to some extent the
ures like the Stroop color-word task. Individuals favored theory of the health-care provider (physi-
are asked to name the color of the ink in which a cian, psychologist, or therapist) one goes to for
word is printed but to ignore the meaning of the treatment.
word itself. Slower response rates are thought to
indicate greater effort to suppress words that are Biologically based treatments. The most com-
highly descriptive of the self. For example, de- mon treatment for depression that is thought to
pressed individuals take longer to name the color have a physiological basis is antidepressant medi-
in which words like ‘‘sad’’ and ‘‘useless’’ are print- cation. Based on biological theories suggesting
ed compared to the color for positive words. that depression results from low levels of the
monoamines serotonin, norepinephrine, and
In health, clinical, and counseling research dopamine, antidepressant medications act to in-
and evaluation settings, the two most common crease the levels of these chemicals in the blood-
measures of depression are the Beck Depression stream. These drugs work by either preventing the
Inventory (BDI) and the Center for Epidemiological monoamines from being broken down and de-
Studies Depression Scale (CESD). The BDI was stroyed (referred to as monoamine oxidase (MOA)
designed to measure ‘‘symptom-attitude catego- inhibitors and tricyclics) or by preventing them
ries’’ associated with depression (Beck 1967). These from being removed from where they work (re-
include, among others, mood, pessimism, and ferred to as selective serotonin inhibitors [SSRIs]).
sense of failure as well as somatic preoccupation. Elavil, Norpramin, and Tofranil are the trade names
Many of the items reflect Beck’s belief in the of some MAO inhibitors. Prozac, Paxil, Zoloft, and
relevance of negative cognitions or self-evalua- Luvox are examples of SSRIs.
tions in depression. Each item includes a group of
statements that reflect increasing levels of one of Although these medications have been prov-
these symptom-attitude categories. The test taker en to be effective in reducing depression, they also
is asked to choose the statement within each item have a variety of side effects and need to be taken
that reflects the way he or she has been feeling in only under medical supervision. For example,
the past week. The items are scored on a scale from tricyclics also cause dry mouth, constipation, dizzi-
0–3, and reflect increasing levels of negativity. A ness, irregular heartbeat, blurred vision, ringing in
sample item includes 0 = ‘‘I do not feel like a the ears, retention of urine, and excessive sweat-
failure,’’ to 3 = ‘‘I feel I am a complete failure as a ing. Some of the SSRIs were developed with an eye
person.’’ The CESD is a twenty-item scale, is a toward reducing side effects and are correspond-
widely used measure of depressive symptomatology, ingly more often prescribed. Unfortunately, they
and has been shown to be valid and reliable in are most commonly associated with prescription
many samples. Participants are asked to best de- drug overdoses resulting in many thousands of
scribe how often they felt or behaved during the deaths a year.
previous week, in a variety of ways reflective of
symptoms of depression, using a scale ranging Several medicinal herbs have antidepressant
from 0 (Rarely or none of the time[less than 1 day]) to 3 effects. The most powerful is St. John’s wort, a
(Most or all of the time [5–7 days]). For example, natural MAO inhibitor. In addition, ginkgo and
participants are asked how often their sleep was caffeine may also help. Although much more re-
restless or they felt that everything they did was an search remains to be done, studies to date support

654

DEPRESSION

the effectiveness of such alternative medicine. For Which are more effective treatments: cogni-
example, a group of researchers in Texas, in col- tive or biological? A large National Institute of
laboration with German scientists, surveyed stud- Mental Health study suggests that there is little
ies including a total of 1,757 outpatients with difference in the effectiveness of the two therapies
mainly mild or moderately severe depressive dis- although the two treatments seem to produce
orders, and found that extracts of St. John’s wort different effects over time. Patients who received
were more effective than placebos (i.e., inactive cognitive therapy were less likely to have a return
pills) and as effective as standard antidepressant of depression over time as compared to patients
medication in the treatment of depression. They with biological therapy, although the small sample
also had fewer side effects than standard antide- size used in this study precludes a definite answer
pressant drugs (Linde et al. 1996). to this question. Both therapies have been found
to be effective, and it is likely that one is better with
In extreme cases of depression when drugs some forms of depression than the other, depend-
have been tried and found to not have an effect, ing on how long the person has been depressed
and when the patient does not have the time to and the exact nature of his or her symptoms. In
wait for drugs to take an effect (sometimes up to general both treatments, whether cognitive or bio-
two or three weeks), electroconvulsive therapy logical, are recommended to be continued for a
(ECT) is recommended. ECT involves passing a short time after the depressed episode has ended
current of between 70 and 130 volts through the in order to prevent relapse.
patient’s head after the administration of an anes-
thetic and muscle relaxant (to prevent injury from CONCOMITANTS
the convulsion caused by the charge). ECT is
effective in treating severe depression although A wide body of research has documented the links
the exact mechanisms by which it works have not between depression and a wide variety of other
been determined. factors. It is both a component of many other
psychological disorders as well as something that
Cognitive treatments. Cognitive therapists fo- follows many other disorders. In fact, some studies
cus on the thoughts of the depressed person and have shown that out of all the people at a given
attempt to break the cycle of negative automatic time with depression, only 44 percent of them
thoughts and negative self-views. Therapy sessions display what can be called ‘‘pure’’ depression,
are well structured and begin with a discussion of whereas the others have depression and at least
an agenda for the session, where a list of items is one other disorder or problem. The most com-
drawn up and then discussed one by one. The mon of these associated problems are anxiety,
therapist then tries to identify, understand, and substance abuse, alcoholism, and eating disorders
clarify the misinterpretations and unrealistic ex- (see Hammen 1997 for more details). Given the
pectations held by the client. Therapists use sever- symptoms of depression, individuals with the dis-
al techniques to identify these thoughts including order also experience associated social problems
asking direct questions, asking the client to use including strained relationships with spouses, fami-
imagery to evoke the thoughts, or role-playing. ly, and friends, and in the workplace. Most alarm-
Identifying these thoughts is a critical part of ing perhaps is that the children of depressed par-
cognitive therapy and clients are also asked to ents (especially mothers) are especially at risk for
keep daily diaries to list automatic thoughts when developing problems of their own.
they occur as they are often unnoticed by de-
pressed individuals. The client is then asked to Depression has also been linked to positive
provide a written summary of the major conclu- factors although not always with good results. For
sions from the session to solidify what has been example, there is some evidence that depression is
achieved and finally, the therapist prescribes a linked to creativity. Artists tend to suffer more
‘‘homework assignment’’ designed to help the cli- than their share of depression according to psy-
ent practice skills and behaviors worked on during chiatrists at Harvard medical school, who charted
the session. Behavioral therapy is closely related to the psychological histories of fifteen mid-twenti-
cognitive therapy and involves training the client eth-century artists. They found that at least half of
to have better social skills and behaviors that en-
able them to develop better relationships with others.

655

DEPRESSION

them, including artists like Jackson Pollock and seven domains (e.g., parenting, relationships, and
Mark Rothko, suffered from varying degrees of financial matters) than individuals of high-socioe-
depression (Schildkraut and Aurora 1996). Many conomic status, which could account for higher
of these artists eventually committed suicide, which levels of depression.
is perhaps one of the most significant and danger-
ous results of depression. At least 15 percent of The influence of culture is one factor that has
people with depression complete the act of sui- not been sufficiently studied in the context of
cide, but an even higher proportion will attempt it. depression. To date, most clinical-disorder classifi-
Consequently, individuals with severe cases of de- cation systems do not sufficiently acknowledge the
pression may experience many suicide-related role played by cultural factors in mental disorders.
thoughts and sometimes need constant surveillance. The experience of depression has very different
meanings and forms of expression in different
Depression is often seen in patients with chronic societies. Most cases of depression worldwide are
or terminal illnesses and in patients who are close experienced and expressed in bodily terms of
to dying. For example, depression is a common aching backs, headaches, fatigue, and a wide as-
experience of AIDS patients, and is related to a sortment of symptoms that lead patients to regard
range of factors such as physical symptomatology, this condition as a physical problem (Sarason and
number of days spent in bed, and in the perceived Sarason 1999). Only in contemporary Western
sufficiency of social support. Depression has also societies is depression seen principally as an inter-
been linked to factors that influence mortality and nal psychological experience. For example, many
morbidity. Higher depressed mood has been sig- cultures tend to view their mental health problems
nificantly associated with immune parameters per- in terms of physical bodily problems. That is, they
tinent to HIV activity and progression: lower levels tend to manifest their worries, guilt feelings, and
of CD4 T cells, immune activation, and a lower strong negative emotions (such as depression) as
proliferative response to PHA (a natural biological physical complaints. This could be because bodily
reaction that is essential to good health). Depres- complaints do not carry the stigma or negative
sion is also a critical variable with respect to com- social consequences that psychological problems
pliance with treatment, especially in HIV-positive do, and are correspondingly easier to talk about.
women of low-socioeconomic status.
Although not an essential part of aging, many
Depression is strongly related to the number people over age sixty-five develop clinical depres-
and duration of stressors experienced, or chronic sion. Surveys suggest that only about 5 percent of
burden. Chronic burden, defined by Leonard healthy elderly people living independently suffer
Pearlin and Carmi Schooler (1978) as ongoing depression at any given moment, but more than
difficulties in major social roles, including difficul- 15 percent experience depression at some point
ties in employment, marriage, finances, parenting, during their elderly years, and the condition tends
ethnic relations, and being single/separated/di- to be more chronic than in younger people. In
vorced contributes to depression and increases addition, some 25 percent of elderly individuals
vulnerability to health problems by reducing the experience periods of persistent sadness that last
ability of the body to respond to a physiological two weeks or longer, and more than 20 percent
challenge, such as mounting an immune response report persistent thoughts of death and dying. The
to a virus. Related to chronic burden, many as- likelihood of depression varies with the situation
pects of depression are concomitants of low-so- the person is in, and is more likely when the elderly
cioeconomic status, traditionally measured by edu- person is away from his or her family in a novel
cation, income, and occupation. Research showing setting. For example, some 20 percent of nursing
clear social-class differences in depression also home residents are depressed. Depression is also
suggest the contribution of the stress of poverty, antagonized by serious medical conditions that
exposure to crime, and other chronic stressors elderly men and women may have. Correspond-
that vary with social class. Jay Turner, Blair Whea- ingly, depression is commonly associated with ill-
ton, and David Lloyd (1995) found that individuals nesses like cancer, heart attack, and stroke. De-
of low-socioeconomic status were exposed to more pression often goes undiagnosed and untreated in
chronic strain in the form of life difficulties in the elderly and is something that caregivers (spouse,

656

DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

children, family, and friends) should be especially Freud, S. 1957 ‘‘Mourning and Melancholia’’ (1917). In
watchful for given the relationship between de- J. Strachey, ed., The Standard Edition of the Complete
pression and suicide. Psychological Works of Sigmund Freud, vol 14. London:
Hogarth.
CONCLUSIONS
Gotlib, Ian H., and Constance L. Hammen 1992 Psycho-
Many people still carry the misperception that logical Aspects of Depression: Toward a Cognitive-Inter-
depression is either a character flaw, a problem personal Integration. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
that happens because of personal weaknesses, or is
completely ‘‘in the head.’’ As described above, Hammen, Constance 1997 Depression. Hove, East Sus-
there are psychological, physiological, and societal sex, Eng.: Psychology Press.
components to depression. Most importantly, it is
something that can and should be treated. There Honig, A., and H. M. van Praag (eds.) 1997 Depression:
are too few people who see a doctor when they Neurobiological, Psychopathological, and Therapeutic Ad-
recognize symptoms of depression or think of vances. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
getting medical treatment for it. Depression is so
prevalent that it is often seen as a natural compo- Linde K., G. Ramirez, C. D. Mulrow, A. Pauls, W.
nent of life events like pregnancy and old age, and Weidenhammer, and D. Melchart 1996 ‘‘St. John’s
depressed mothers and elderly men and women Wort for Depression: A Meta-Analysis of Random-
often do not get the attention they need. Today, ized Clinical Trials.’’ British Medical Journal, 313, 253.
much more is known about the causes and treat-
ment of this mental-health problem, with the best Nemeroff, Charles B. 1998 ‘‘The Neurobiology of De-
form of treatment being a combination of medica- pression.’’ Scientific American 278:42–49.
tion and psychotherapy. Depression need not be
‘‘the end.’’ Nolen-Hoeksema, Susan 1995 ‘‘Epidemiology and Theo-
ries of Gender Differences in Unipolar Depression.’’
REFERENCES In M. V. Seeman, ed., Gender and Psychopathology, 63–
87. Washington, D.C.: American Psychiatric Press.
Abraham, Karl 1968 ‘‘Notes on the Psychoanalytic In-
vestigation and Treatment of Manic-Depressive In- ———, and J. S. Girgus 1994 ‘‘The Emergence of Gen-
sanity and Allied Conditions’’ (1911). In K. Abra- der Differences in Depression During Adolescence.’’
ham, ed., Selected Papers of Karl Abraham. New York: Psychological Bulletin 115:424–443.
Basic Books.
Pearlin, L. I., and C. Schooler 1978 ‘‘The Structure of
Abramson, Lauren, Y., G. I. Metalsky, and L. B. Alloy Coping.’’ Journal of Health and Social Behavior 19:2–21.
1989 ‘‘Hopelessness Depression: A Theory-Based
Subtype of Depression.’’ Psychological Review 96:358–372. Sarason, Irwin G., and Barbara R. Sarason 1999 Abnor-
mal Psychology: The Problem of Maladaptive Behavior,
American Psychiatric Association 1994 Diagnostic and 9th ed. Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice-Hall.
Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders: DSM-IV, 4th ed.
Washington, D.C. : American Psychiatric Association. Schildkraut, J. J., and A. Otero (eds.) 1996 Depression and
the Spiritual in Modern Art: Homage to Miro, 112–130.
Beck, Aaron T. 1967 Depression: Clinical, Experimental New York: John Wiley and Sons.
and Theoretical Aspects. New York: Harper and Row.
Seligman, Martin E. P. 1975 Helplessness: On Depression,
Beckham, E. E., and W. R. Leber (eds.) 1995 Handbook of Development and Death. San Francisco: Freeman.
Depression: An Updated Review and Integration, 2nd ed.
New York: Guilford. Styron, William 1990 Darkness Visible: A Memoir of Mad-
ness. New York: Random House.
Bowlby, John 1988 A Secure Base: Parent-Child Attachment
and Healthy Human Development. New York: Ba- Turner, R. J., B. Wheaton, and D. A. Lloyd 1995 ‘‘The
sic Books. Epidemiology of Social Stress.’’ American Sociological
Review 60:104–125.
Brown, G. W., and T. O. Harris 1978 Social Origins of
Depression. London: Free Press. REGAN A. R. GURUNG, PH. D.

Endler, Norman S. 1990 Holiday of Darkness: A Psycholo- DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
gist’s Personal Journey Out of His Depression. New York:
John Wiley and Sons. Descriptive statistics include data distribution and
the summary information of the data. Researchers
use descriptive statistics to organize and describe
the data of a sample or population. The character-
istics of the sample are statistics while those of the

657

DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

population are parameters. Descriptive statistics compare various samples or populations, the re-
are usually used to describe the characteristics of a porting percent or relative frequency of each cate-
sample. The procedure and methods to infer the gory is important. The third column shows the
statistics to parameters are the statistical infer- percent of sample in each interval or category. For
ence. Descriptive statistics do not include statisti- example, 30 percent of the sample falls into the
cal inference. range of twenty-one to twenty-five years old. The
fourth column shows the proportion of observa-
Though descriptive statistics are usually used tion for each interval or category. The proportion
to examine the distribution of single variables, was called relative frequency. The cumulative fre-
they may also be used to measure the relationship quency, the cumulative percent, and the cumula-
of two or more variables. That is, descriptive statis- tive relative frequency are other common ele-
tics may refer to either univariate or bivariate ments in frequency tabulation. They are the sum
relationship. Also, the level of the measurement of of counts, percents, or proportions below or equal
a variable, that is, nominal, ordinal, interval, and to the corresponding category or interval. For
ratio level, can influence the method chosen. instance, the cumulative frequency of age thirty
shows 101 persons or 84.2 percent of the sample
DATA DISTRIBUTION age thirty or younger.

To describe a set of data effectively, one should The frequency distribution displays one vari-
order the data and examine the distribution. An able at a time. To study the joint distribution of two
eyeball examination of the array of small data is or more variables, we cross-tabulate them first. For
often sufficient. For a set of large data, the aids of example, the joint distribution of age and sex in
tables and graphs are necessary. the imaginary sample can be expressed in Table 2.

Tabulation. The table is expressed in counts This table is a two-dimensional table: age is the
or rates. The frequency table can display the distri- column variable and sex is the row variable. We
bution of one variable. It lists attributes, catego- call this table a ‘‘two-by-five’’ table: two categories
ries, or intervals with the number of observations for sex and five categories for age. The marginal
reported. Data expressed in the frequency distri- frequency can be seen as the frequency distribu-
bution are grouped data. To examine the central tion of the corresponding variables. For example,
tendency and dispersion of large data, using there are fifty seven men in this sample. The
grouped data is easier than using ungrouped data. marginal frequency for age is called column frequen-
Data usually are categorized into intervals that are cy and the marginal frequency for sex is called row
mutually exclusive. One case or data point falls frequency. The joint frequency of age and sex is cell
into one category only. Displaying frequency dis- frequency. For example, there are seventeen wom-
tribution of quantitative or continuous variables en twenty-one to twenty-five years old in this sam-
by intervals is especially efficient. For example, the ple. The second number in each cell is column
frequency distribution of age in an imaginary sam- percentage; that is, the cell frequency divided by the
ple can be seen in Table 1. column frequency and times 100 percent. For
example, 47 percent in the group of twenty-one to
Here, age has been categorized into five intervals, twenty-five year olds are women. The third num-
i.e., 15 and below, 16–20, 21–25, 26–30, and 31– ber in each cell is row percentage; that is, the cell
35, and they are mutually exclusive. Any age falls frequency divided by the row frequency. For ex-
into one category only. This display is very effi- ample, 27 percent of women are twenty-one to
cient for understanding the age distribution in our twenty-five years old. The marginal frequency can be
imaginary sample. The distribution shows that seen as the frequency distribution of the corre-
twenty cases are aged fifteen or younger, twenty- sponding variables. The row and column percent-
five cases are sixteen to twenty years old, thirty-six ages are useful in examining the distribution of on
cases are twenty-one to twenty-five years old, twen- variable conditioning on the other variable.
ty cases are twenty-six to thirty years old, and
nineteen cases are thirty-one to thirty-five years Charts and Graphs. Charts and graphs are
old. To compare categories or intervals and to efficient ways to show data distribution. Popular

658

DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

Age Distribution of an Imaginary Sample

Codes Frequency Percent Relative Cumulative Cumulative
Frequency Frequency Percent
15 and below 20 16.7 16.7
16–20 25 20.8 .17 20 37.5
21–25 36 30.0 .21 45 67.5
26–30 20 16.7 .30 81 84.2
31–35 19 15.8 .17 101 100
Total 120 100 .16 120
1.0
Table 1

graphs for single variables are bar graphs, histo- goes to the right or y-axis goes up, the value
grams, and stem-and-leaf plots. The bar graph shows ascends; when the x-axis goes to the left or y-axis
the relative frequency distribution of discrete vari- goes down, the value descends. The data points,
ables. A bar is drawn over each category with determinated by the joint attributes of the vari-
height of the bar representing the relative frequen- ables, are scattered in four areas or along the axises.
cy of observations in that category. The histogram
can be seen as a bar graph for the continuous SUMMARY STATISTICS
variable. By connecting the midpoints of tops of all
bars, a histogram becomes the frequency polygon. We may use measures of central tendency and
Histograms effectively show the shape of the dispersion to summarize the data. To measure the
distribution. central tendency of a distribution is to measure its
center or typicality. To measure the dispersion of a
Stem-and-leaf plots represent each observa- distribution is to measure its variation, heteroge-
tion by its higher digit(s) and its lowest digit. The neity, or deviation.
value of higher digits is the stem while the value of
the final digit of each observation is the leaf. The Central Tendency. Three popular measures
stem-and-leaf plot conveys the same information of the central tendency are mean, median, and
as the bar graph or histogram. Additionally, it tells mode. The arithmetic mean or average is computed
the exact value of each observation. Despite pro- by taking the sum of the values and dividing by the
viding more information than bar graphs and number of the values. It is the balanced point of
histograms, stem-and-leaf plots are used mostly for the sample or population weighted by values. Mean
small data. is an appropriate measure for continuous (ratio or
interval) variables. However, the information might
Other frequently used graphs include line be misleading because the arithmetic mean is sen-
graphs, ogives, and scatter plots. Line graphs and sitive to the extreme value or outliers in a distribu-
ogives show the relationship between time and the tion. For example, the ages of five students are 21,
variable. The line graph usually shows trends. The 19, 20, 18, and 20. The ages of another five stu-
ogive is a form of a line graph for cumulative dents are 53, 9, 12, 13, and 11. Though their
relative frequency or percentage. It is commonly distributions are very different, the mean age for
used for survival data. The scatter plot shows the both groups is 19.6.
relationship between variables. In a two-dimen-
sional scatter plot, x and y axises label values of the Median is the value or attribute of the central
data. Conventionally, we use the horizontal axis (x- case in an ordered distribution. If the number of
axis) for the explanatory variable and use the cases is even, the median is the arithmetic average
vertical axis (y-axis) for the outcome variable. The of the central two cases. In an ordered age distribu-
plain is naturally divided into four areas by two tion of thirty-five persons, the median is the age of
axises. For continuous variables, the value at the the eighteenth person, while, in a distribution of
joint point of two axises is zero. When the x-axis thirty-six persons, the median is the average age of

659

DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

Sex 15 and below 16–20 Age 26–30 31-25 Total
Male 57
9 12 21-25 9 8
Female 45.0% 48.0% 45.0% 42.1% 47.5%
15.8% 21.1% 19 15.8% 14.0%
Total 52.8% 63
11 13 33.3% 11 11 52.5%
Table 2 55.0% 52.0% 55.0% 57.9%
17.5% 20.6% 17 17.5% 17.5% 120
47.2% 100%
20 25 27.0% 20 19
16.7% 20.8% 16.7% 15.8%
36
30.0%

the seventeenth and eighteenth persons. The me- distribution. The most popular measures of dis-
dian, like mean, can only tell the value of the persion are range, standard deviation, and variance.
physical center in an array of numbers, but cannot Range is the crude measure of a distribution from
tell the dispersion. For example, the median of 21, the highest value to the lowest value or the differ-
30, 45, and 100 is 27.5 and the median of 0, 27, 28, ence between the highest and the lowest values.
and 29 is also 27.5, but the two distributions are For example, the range for a set of values of 1, 2, 3,
different. The mode is the most common value, 4, and 5 is one to five. The range is sensitive to the
category, or attribute in a distribution. Like the extreme value and may not provide sufficient in-
median, the mode has its limitations. For a set of formation about the distribution. Alternatively,
values of 0, 2, 2, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, and 10, the mode is the dispersion can be measured by the distance
four. For a set of values of 0, 0, 1, 4, 4, 4, 5, and 6, between the mean and each value. The standard
the mode is also four. One cannot tell one distribu- deviation is defined as the square root of the
tion from the other simply by examining the mode arithmetic mean of the squared deviation from the
or median alone. The mode and median can be mean. For example, the standard deviation for a
used to describe the central tendency of both set of values of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 is 1.44. We take the
continuous and discrete variables, and values of square root of the squared deviation from the
mode and median are less affected by the extreme mean because the sum of the deviation from the
value or the outlier than the mean. mean is always zero. The variance is the square of
the standard deviation. The variance is two in the
One may also use upper and lower quartiles previous array of numbers. The standard devia-
and percentiles to measure the central tendency. tion is used as a standardized unit in statistical
The n percentile is a number such that n percent of inference. Comparing with standard deviation,
the distribution falls below it and (100−n) percent the unit of the variance is not substantively mean-
falls above it. The lower quartile is the twenty-fifth ingful. It is, however, valuable to explain the rela-
percentile, the upper quartile is the seventy-fifth tionship between variables. Mathematically, the
percentile, and the median is the fiftieth percen- variance defines the area of the normal curve
tile. For example, the lower quartile or the twenty- while the standard deviation defines the average
fifth percentile is two and the upper quartile or the distance between the mean and each data point.
seventy-fifth percentile is seven for a set of values Since they are derived from the distance from the
of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8. Apparently, the upper mean, standard deviation and variance are sensi-
and lower quartiles and the percentiles can pro- tive to the extreme values.
vide more information about a distribution than
the other measures of the central tendency. The interquartile range (IQR) and mean absolute
deviation (MAD) are also commonly used to meas-
Dispersion. The central tendency per se does ure the dispersion. The IQR is defined as the
not provide much information on the distribu- difference between the first and third quartiles. It
tion. Yet the combination of measures of central is more stable than the range. MAD is the average
tendency and dispersion becomes useful to study a

660

DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

absolute values of the deviation of the observa- dividing the box shows the median. The plot can
tions from the mean. As standard deviation, MAD be placed vertically or horizontally. The box plot
can avoid the problem that the sum of the devia- became popular because it can express the center
tion from the mean is zero, but it is not as useful in and spread of the data simultaneously. Several
statistical inference as variance and standard boxes may be placed next to one another for
deviation. comparison.

Bivariate Relationship. One may use the co- The order of mode, median, and mean is
variance and correlation coefficients to measure the related to the shape of the distribution of a con-
direction and size of a relationship between two tinuous variable. If mean, median, and mode are
variables. The covariance is defined as the average equal to each other, the shape of the histogram
product of the deviation from the mean between approximates a bell curve. However, a uniform
two variables. It also reports the extent to which distribution, in which all cases are equally distrib-
the variables may vary together. On average, while uted among all values and three measures of the
one variable deviates one unit from the mean, the central tendency are equal to each other, has a
covariance tells the extent to which the corre- square shape with the width as the range and the
sponding value of the other variable may deviate height as the counts or relative frequency. In a
from its own mean. A positive covariance suggests bimodal distribution, two modes are placed in two
that, while the value of one variable increases, that ends of the distribution equally distanced from the
of the other variable tends to increase. A negative center where the median and the mean are placed.
covariance suggests that, while the value of one We seldom see the true bell-curved, uniform, and
variable increases, that of the other variable tends bimodal distributions. Most of the distributions
to decrease. The correlation coefficient is defined are more or less skewed to the left or to the right. If
as the ratio of the covariance to the product of the the mean is greater than median and the median is
standard deviations of two variables. It can also be greater than mode, the shape is skewed to the
seen as a covariance rescaled by the standard right. If the mean is smaller than the median, and
deviation of both variables. The value of the corre- the median is smaller than the mode, the shape is
lation coefficient ranges from −1 to 1, where zero skewed to the left. The outliers mainly lead the
means no correlation, −1 means perfectly nega- direction.
tively related, and 1 means perfectly positively
related. The covariance and correlation are meas- The shape and direction of the scatter plot can
ures of the bivariate relationship between continu- diagnose the relationship of two variables. When
ous variables. Many measures of association be- the distribution directs from the upper-right side
tween categorical variables are calculated using to the lower-left side, the correlation coefficient is
cell frequencies or percentages in the cross-tabula- positive; when it directs from the upper-left side to
tion, for example, Yule’s Q, phi, Goodman’s tau, the lower-right side, the correlation coefficient is
Goodman’s gamma, and Somer’s d. Though meas- negative. The correlation of a loosely scattered
ures of association alone show the direction and plot is weaker than that of a tightly scattered plot.
size of a bivariate relationship, it is statistical infer- A three-dimensional scatter plot can be used to
ence to test the existence of such a relationship. show a bivariate relationship and its frequency
distribution or a relationship of three variables.
RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GRAPHS AND The former is commonly seen as a graph to exam-
SUMMARY STATISTICS ine a joint distribution.

The box plot is a useful tool to summarize the Descriptive statistics is the first step in study-
statistics and distribution. The box plot is consist- ing the data distribution. In omitting this step, one
ed of a rectangular divided box and two extended might misuse the advanced methods and thus be
lines attached to the ends of the box. The ends of led to wrong estimates and conclusions. Some
the box define the upper and lower quartiles. The summary statistics such as standard deviation, vari-
range of the distribution on each side is shown by ance, mean, correlation, and covariance, are also
an extended line attached to each quartile. A line essential elements in statistical inference and ad-
vanced statistical methods.

661

DEVIANCE THEORIES

REFERENCES by sociological theories, government agencies or
programs focused on problems like crime or vio-
Agresti, Alan, and Barbara Finlay 1997 Statistical Meth- lence are more likely to yield meaningful reduc-
ods for the Social Sciences, 3rd ed. New York: Simon & tions in criminal or violent behavior.
Schuster.
Despite their importance, deviance theories
Blalock, Jr., Hubert M. 1979 Social Statistics, rev. 2nd ed. disagree about the precise causes of deviant acts.
New York: McGraw-Hill. Some look to the structure of society and groups
or geographic areas within society, explaining de-
Johnson, Allan G. 1988 Statistics. New York: Harcourt viance in terms of broad social conditions in which
Brace Jovanovich. deviance is most likely to flourish. Others explain
deviant behavior using the characteristics of indi-
Wonnacott, Thomas H., and Ronald J. Wonnacott 1990 viduals, focusing on those characteristics that are
Introductory Statistics. 5th ed. New York: John Wiley & most highly associated with learning deviant acts.
Sons, Inc. Other theories view deviance as a social status
conferred by one group or person on others, a
DAPHNE KUO status that is imposed by persons or groups in
power in order to protect their positions of power.
DEVIANCE These theories explain deviance in terms of differ-
entials in power between individuals or groups.
See Alienation; Anomie; Criminalization of
Deviance; Deviance Theories; Legislation of This chapter reviews the major sociological
Morality. theories of deviance. It offers an overview of each
major theory, summarizing its explanation of devi-
DEVIANCE THEORIES ant behavior. Before reviewing the theories, how-
ever, it may prove useful to describe two different
Since its inception as a discipline, sociology has dimensions of theory that will structure our discus-
studied the causes of deviant behavior, examining sion. The first of these, the level of explanation,
why some persons conform to social rules and refers to the scope of the theory and whether it
expectations and why others do not. Typically, focuses on the behavior and characteristics of
sociological theories of deviance reason that as- individuals or on the characteristics of social ag-
pects of individuals’ social relationships and the gregates such as neighborhoods, cities, or other
social areas in which they live and work assist in social areas. Micro-level theories stress the individu-
explaining the commission of deviant acts. This al, typically explaining deviant acts in terms of
emphasis on social experiences, and how they personal characteristics of individuals or the im-
contribute to deviant behavior, contrasts with the mediate social context in which deviant acts occur.
focus on the internal states of individuals taken by In contrast, macro-level theories focus on social
disciplines such as psychology and psychiatry. aggregates or groups, looking to the structural
characteristics of areas in explaining the origins of
Sociological theories are important in under- deviance, particularly rates of deviance among
standing the roots of social problems such as those groups.
crime, violence, and mental illness and in explain-
ing how these problems may be remedied. By Theories of deviance also vary in relation to a
specifying the causes of deviance, the theories second dimension, causal focus. This dimension
reveal how aspects of the social environment influ- divides theories into two groups, those that ex-
ence the behavior of individuals and groups. Fur- plain the social origins of norm violations and
ther, the theories suggest how changes in these those explaining societal reactions to deviance.
influences may yield changes in levels of deviant Social origin theories focus on the causes of norm
behaviors. If a theory specifies that a particular set violations. Typically, these theories identify as-
of factors cause deviant behavior, then it also pects of the social environment that trigger norm
implies that eliminating or altering those factors in violations; social conditions in which the violations
the environment will change levels of deviance. By are most likely to occur. In contrast, social reaction
developing policies or measures that are informed theories argue that deviance is often a matter of

662

DEVIANCE THEORIES

social construction, a status imposed by one per- Finally, macro-level reaction theories emphasize
son or group on others and a status that ultimately broad structural conditions in society that are
may influence the subsequent behavior of the associated with the designation of entire groups or
designated deviant. Social reaction theories argue segments of the society as deviant. These theories
that some individuals and groups may be designat- tend to stress the importance of structural charac-
ed or labeled as deviant and that the process of teristics of populations, groups, or geographic
labeling may trap or engulf those individuals or areas, such as degrees of economic inequality or
groups in a deviant social role. concentration of political power within communi-
ties or the larger society. According to macro-level
These two dimensions offer a four-fold scheme reaction theories, powerful groups impose the
for classifying types of deviance theories. The first, status of deviant as a mechanism for controlling
macro-level origin theories, focus on the causes of those groups that represent the greatest political,
norm violations associated with broad structural economic, or social threat to their position of
conditions in the society. These theories typically power. The theories also imply that society can
examine the influences of such structural charac- only achieve reduced levels of deviance by reduc-
teristics of populations or communities like the ing the levels of economic and political inequality
concentration of poverty, levels of community in society.
integration, or the density and age distribution of
the population on areal rates of deviance. The The rest of this article is divided into sections
theories have clear implications for public policies corresponding to each of these four ‘‘types’’ of
to reduce levels of deviance. Most often, the theo- deviance theory. The article concludes with a dis-
ries highlight the need for altering structural char- cussion of new directions for theory—the develop-
acteristics of society, such as levels of poverty, that ment of explanations that cut across and integrate
foster deviant behavior. different theory types and the elaboration of exist-
ing theories through greater specification of the
The second, micro-level origin theories focus on conditions under which those theories apply.
the characteristics of the deviant and his or her
immediate social environment. These theories typi- MACRO-LEVEL ORIGINS OF DEVIANCE
cally examine the relationship between a person’s
involvement in deviance and such characteristics Theories of the macro-level origins of deviance
as the influence of peers and significant others, look to the broad, structural characteristics of
persons’ emotional stakes in conformity, their be- society, and groups within society, to explain devi-
liefs about the propriety of deviance and con- ant behavior. Typically, these theories examine
formity, and their perceptions of the threat of one of three aspects of social structure. The first is
punishments for deviant acts. In terms of their the pervasiveness and consequences of poverty in
implications for public policy, micro-level origin modern American society. Robert Merton’s (1938)
theories emphasize the importance of assisting writing on American social structure and Richard
individuals in resisting negative peer influences Cloward and Lloyd Ohlin’s (1960) subsequent
while also increasing their attachment to conforming work on urban gangs laid the theoretical founda-
lifestyles and activities. tion for this perspective. Reasoning that pervasive
materialism in American culture creates unattain-
A third type of theories may be termed micro- able aspirations for many segments of the popula-
level reaction theories. These accord importance to tion, Merton (1964) and others argue that there
those aspects of interpersonal reactions that may exists an environmental state of ‘‘strain’’ among
seriously stigmatize or label the deviant and there- the poor. The limited availability of legitimate
by reinforce her or his deviant social status. Ac- opportunities for attaining material wealth forces
cording to these theories, reactions to deviance the poor to adapt through deviance, either by
may have the unintended effect of increasing the achieving wealth through illegitimate means or by
likelihood of subsequent deviant behavior. Be- rejecting materialistic aspirations and withdraw-
cause labeling may increase levels of deviance, ing from society altogether.
micro-level reaction theories argue that agencies
of social control (e.g. police, courts, correctional According to this reasoning, deviance is a
systems) should adopt policies of ‘‘nonintervention.’’ byproduct of poverty and a mechanism through

663