China
Annex I country levels, whether on an annu- trends, continuously increasing emissions can
be expected in the future with business as usual
al (5.4tCO2e/cap) or cumulative (95 tCO2e/ economic growth.
cap over 1850-2009) basis. Given these recent
Figure 1. Decomposition of GHG and Energy CO2 Emissions
1a. GHG emissions, by source (2005) 1b. Energy-related CO2 emissions by fuel and sectors (2010)
6000 MtCO2
MtCO2 eq 5757 Energy-related 5000
emissions
7468 Electricity
768 Processes 4000 (Allocation
- 421 by End Use Sector)
820 Agriculture 3000
111 Waste 2000 Total MtCO2
13 Fugitive
1000 Natural Gas 195
Petroleum Products 1018
0 Coal 6035
Electricity Generation Transportation Other
54
LULUCF Industry Buildings
(Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry)
2927 2999 634 633 7247
Figure 2. Decomposition of historical energy-related CO2 Emissions, 1990 to 2010
2a. Energy-related CO2 emissions drivers 2b. Energy-related CO2 emissions by sectors
100% Five-year variation rate of the drivers 8000 MtCO2
7000
80% 6000 7247 Other
5000 Buildings
60% 4000
Transportation
40% GDP per capita
5060
20% Population
0% Energy per GDP Industry
-20% 3000 2997
2000
-40% Energy Related 1000 2357
-60%
-80% CO2 Emissions Electricity Generation
per Energy
-100% 0 n.c.
1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1990 1995 2000 2005
Source: Second National Communication on Climate Change (2005)
85 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
China
2 National deep decarbonization pathways
2
2.1 Illustrative deep an increase of primary and final energy of 78%
decarbonization pathway (from 93.7 EJ in 2010 to 166.9 EJ in 2050) and 71%
(from 66.9 EJ in 2010 to 114.4 EJ in 2050) respec-
2.1.1 High-level characterization tively (Figure 3). This increase is mainly triggered
by the industrial sector (+28%), buildings sector
The illustrative deep decarbonization pathway (+141%), and transportation sector (+204%),
combines an acceleration of the evolution of along with changes in economic structure, an
economic structure, reductions in energy inten- increase in urbanization rate, and the completion
sity and the promotion of non-fossil fuel energy of the industrialization process. In particular, the
to control emissions in a context of continued share of coal in primary energy consumption falls
economic growth. GDP per capita is assumed to to 20% in 2050, while the use of natural gas and
increase by more than 6 times from 2010 to 2050 non-fossil fuels increase, contributing 17% and
to satisfy development needs, but energy trends 43% respectively.
are significantly decoupled from this growth with
Figure 3. Energy Pathways, by source
3a. Primary EJ 3b. Final Energy
Energy + 78 % 175 166.9 EJ
150 2050 150
125 + 71% 125 114.4
100 2050
0.7 93.7 100 21.3 Nuclear
7.5 51.1 Renewables & Biomass
4.0 75 8.0 Natural Gas w CCS 2.8 66.9 75 6.0 Heat
20.5 Natural Gas 36.5 Electricity
16.7 50 32.2 Oil 14.2 50 35.4 Liquids
11.2 Coal w CCS 16.8 17.3 Gas
64.8 25 22.6 Coal 3.2 25 19.2 Coal
0
29.9 0
2010
2010
Figure 4. Energy-related CO2 Emissions Drivers, 2010 to 2050 4b. The pillars of decarbonization
Pillar 1.
4a. Energy-related CO2 emissions drivers Energy ef ciency Energy Intensity of GDP
15.8 MJ/$
100% Ten-year variation rate of the drivers 2010
80% 2050 4.4 - 72 %
60%
40% GDP per capita Pillar 2. Electricity Emissions Intensity
20% Decarbonization of electricity 743 gCO2/kWh
Population 2010
0% Energy per GDP - 96 %
-20% 2050 32
-40%
-60% Energy-related CO2 Emissions Pillar 3. Share of electricity in total nal energy
-80% per Energy Electri cation of end-uses 21 + 24 pt
2010
2020 2030 2040 2050 2050 32 %
2010 2020 2030 2040
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 86
China
In the illustrative deep decarbonization pathway, Table 1. The development indicators and energy service demand drivers in China
energy-related CO2 emissions decrease by 34%,
from 7.25 GtCO2 in 2010 to 4.77 GtCO2 in 2050, Population [Millions] 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
essentially due to a decrease of both the primary GDP per capita [$/capita, 2010 price] 1360 1433 1453 1435 1385
energy per unit of GDP by 73% and of energy-related 4455 8708 14666 20945 27789
CO2 emissions per unit of energy by 61% (Figure 4a).
The former is largely explained by structural change Figure 5. Energy-related CO2 Emissions Pathway,
with a large decrease of the share of energy-inten- by Sector, 2010 to 2050
sive sectors of the economy and improvement of
economy-wide energy efficiency. The latter mainly 8000 MtCO2
comes from decarbonizing the power sector and
the electrification of end-uses (from 21% in 2010 7000 7247 54 - 34%
to 32% 2050) while increasing living standards and 633 4766
modernizing energy use patterns (Figure 4b). The
application of CCS technologies in power generation 6000 634
and the industrial sector is also a crucial feature of
this illustrative pathway, contributing 1.3 GtCO2 and 5000 2999
0.8 GtCO2 respectively. 4000
At the sectoral level, the industry sector emissions
remain the largest, but buildings and transporta- 3000 2927 66 Other
tion increase in share, from 17% in 2010 to 49% 2000 2010 2050 752 Buildings
of 2050 emissions (Figure 5). 1000 1601 Transportation
2018 Industry
2.1.2 Sectoral characterization 0 329 Electricity Generation
Power sector Figure 6. Energy Supply Pathway for Electricity Generation, by Source
Electrification is an important indicator of economic
and social development, and electricity consumption gCO2/kWh 600 Carbon intensity
in the illustrative deep decarbonization scenario is 400
projected to reach 10,143 TWh in 2050, or 7,300 kWh 743
per capita (around 2.5 times the 2010 level).
Since thermal power, especially from coal, is an
important source of local pollutants and GHGs, 200
the decarbonization of power sector is of signifi- 32
cance for the achievement of low-carbon devel-
opment. The carbon emission intensity of power 12500 TWh 0
generation in 2050 will decrease from 743 gCO2/
kwh in 2010 to 32 gCO2/kwh in 2050 (Figure 6a). 10000 Other renewables
This is permitted by the large-scale use of nuclear 7500 Biomass
(which reaches 25% of electricity production in Solar
2050), intermittent renewables (installed capac-
ity of wind and solar respectively equal 900 GW Wind
and 1,000 GW in 2050, contributing 18% and 17%
5000 Hydro
2500 Nuclear
Natural Gas w CCS
Natural Gas
0 Coal w CCS
Coal
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
87 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
China
of electricity generation respectively), and hydro CO2 emissions in the industry sector, particularly
(which accounts for an additional 18%). Fossil-fu- due to the contribution of CCS technology. If CCS
el power generation units still represent 24% of is deployed appropriately on a commercialized
electricity generation in 2050 (notably because scale after 2030 in key industry sectors, it is ex-
natural gas power generation technologies act as pected to sequester 28% of total CO2 emissions
an important back-up technology for intermittent in the industry sector in 2050 (Figure 7a).
generation technologies). Fossil-based emissions
are reduced by a large percentage due to the de- Buildings
ployment of efficient technology options (notably, Total floor area will continue to grow (from
all new coal power plants after 2020 will be super- 45.2 billion m2 in 2010 to 80.3 billion m2 in 2050),
critical, ultra- supercritical, or IGCC power gener- and the urban and rural residential building floor
ation technologies) and CCS facilities on 90% of areas per capita will increase (reaching around
coal power plants and 80% of natural gas power 36 m2 and 47 m2 respectively) in parallel with the
plants. This diffusion supposes that CCS technolo- process of urbanization. This pushes total energy
gy will become commercialized after 2030. consumption up by 140% (from 11 EJ to 27 EJ) in
line with a 33% increase of energy consumption
Industry per capita. Energy efficiency measures play an im-
Energy efficiency could be improved by a large de- portant role in limiting this rise of energy demand,
gree through technological innovation in industrial where performance improves by 25%, 22% and
sectors1. This would permit a reduction of energy 10% from 2010 to 2050 for commercial, urban
consumption per value added of the industry sector residential and rural residential units respectively
by 74% from 2010 to 2050, limiting the rise of and appliance energy efficiency increases (e.g. 66%
final energy consumption to 28% (from 46 EJ in and 75% for regular and central air conditioners).
2010 to 58 EJ in 2050). By promoting the trans- The proportion of coal in energy use decreases
formation of coal-fired boilers to gas-fired boilers gradually (from 39% in 2010 to 5% in 2050),
and enhancing the use of electricity, the illustrative as electricity and gas rise (reaching 50.5% and
pathway reduces the share of coal from 56% in 33.2% in 2050 respectively). This triggers a de-
2010 to 30% in 2050, while increasing that of gas crease of the average carbon emission intensity
and electricity in final energy use. Since it’s hard from 119.8 gCO2/MJ in 2010 to 32.7 gCO2/MJ in
to change feed composition in some industries, it 2050. That ensures a 34% lower emissions level
is not expected that further significant changes in in 2050 compared to 2010 (Figure 7b).
energy structure are possible.
In addition, structural changes in industry could be Transport
achieved through developing strategic industries, Pushed by rising mobility demand along with wealth
controlling overcapacity of main industry outputs, increase (a ten-fold increase of kilometers per capita
and eliminating backward production capacity. Nota- to reach 20,000 km/cap in 2050), energy consump-
bly, many high-energy-intensive industry sectors will tion in transport will almost triple, from 9.3 EJ in
experience a slower growth, and the output of some 2010 to 28.1 EJ in 2050, representing a rising share of
high-energy-intensive industry products (notably, ce- total energy consumption, from 14% in 2010 to 24%
ment and crude steel) are anticipated peak by 2020. in 2050. A partial decoupling will allow the carbon
These different options lead a 57% decrease of emissions to rise by only 149% (from 652 MtCO2 in
1 E.g., replacing converter with electric furnace or using waste heat of low temperature flue gas in sintering and pel-
letizing in iron and steel industry and replacing vertical shaft kilns with new dry production process and enforcing
low-temperature cogeneration in cement industry.
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 88
China
2010 to 1,621 MtCO2 in 2050) due to transport mode For the 0n-road transportation, improvement of
shifts, an increase of vehicle fuel economy, and the transportation management is an important option
promotion of electricity and biofuel use (Figure 7c). to control the rapid growth of demand. An increase
The primary mode shift encompasses a transition in fuel economy is also crucial, with a 70% im-
from on-road to off-road modes of transport, provement of light duty vehicles’ energy intensity
where rail and water transport grow over time. In and the deployment of high efficiency diesel vehi-
freight transportation, road transportation is limit- cles in freight transportation. And, even more im-
ed to 32% in 2050, water transportation maintains portantly, the share of gasoline and diesel vehicles
the highest share (about 42% in 2050) and railway sold significantly decreases by 2050 because of the
grows to 24%. Within the passenger transporta- adoption of alternative fuel vehicles. In intra-city
tion, road transportation will be kept at 35% in transportation low-carbon vehicles gradually play a
2050 and railway transportation will remain the more dominant role with the adoption of pure elec-
main transportation mode (45% of total passenger tric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV),
mobility in 2050) notably due to the development biofuels and fuel-cell vehicles (FCV). A reduction
of high-speed railway and rail-based transit sys- in gasoline and diesel use also occurs because of
tems in cities (attaining 50,000 km by 2050, 36 railway electrification, which will play a dominant
times higher than in 2010). role in the railway energy mix by 2050.
Figure 7. Energy Use Pathways for Each Sector, by Fuel, 2010 – 2050 Carbon intensity
gCO2/MJ 120 gCO2/MJ 120 gCO2/MJ 100
100 119.8 100
80 80 80
112.6
37.7 60 60 60
40 70.6 40
80 EJ 40 20 20
70 32.7 57.8
60 0
50 20 0
40 0
Heat
Grid 40 EJ 40 EJ
electricity
30 Liquid fuels 30 Heat 30 Grid
20 20 20 electricity
Pipeline gas Grid
w CCS electricity Biofuels
Pipeline gas
10 Coal w CCS 10 Solid biomass 10 Petroleum
Liquid fuels products
0 Coal 0 Pipeline gas 0 Pipeline gas
Coal
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
7a. Industry 7b. Buildings 7c. Transportation
Note: Carbon intensity shown in Figure 7 for each sector includes both direct end-use emissions and indirect emissions related to electricity production.
Figure 7b only includes energy use for commercial buildings. Non-commercial low-carbon energy options (e.g. biomass and biogas used in rural buildings and residential solar
water heating) that reduce use of fossil fuels and electricity in the buildings sector are included in the scenario analysis but not shown in the Figure 7b.
89 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
China
2.2 Assumptions the major contributor to the reduction in the car-
bon intensity of electricity generation. Hydro pow-
Emphasizing technology development and innovation er production of 500 GW approaches its potential
is vital for the achievement of the Illustrative Deep by 2050; wind power reaches 1,000 GW in 2050
Decarbonization Pathway. Sufficient input on technol- (70% off-shore); solar energy power generation
ogy R&D and incentives for technology deployment experiences a fast development, where solar PV
are necessary. In order to achieve the decarbonization and solar thermal reach approximately 1,000GW
pathway, significant technological and economic effort and 150GW respectively in 2050; biomass-fired
needs to be made in different sectors, and low-carbon power generation and other renewables will be
technologies must be distributed across the country. limited due to resource constraints and high rel-
The most important low-carbon options, especially ative cost; nuclear power generation technologies
energy saving technologies in end use sectors, in the will be developed (due to learning from foreign
illustrative pathway are discussed below: advanced technologies and domestic research and
yyTransport: high-efficiency diesel vehicle or demonstration) and exceed 300GW by 2050.
yyCCS technologies will be another important tech-
gasoline cars, electricity vehicles, plug-in hy- nology and will be deployed in both the power and
brid vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles in passenger industry sectors at scale in 2050. It is expected
transport; a 30% improvement of fuel economy that CCS is developed and demonstrated from
for conventional high duty vehicles; fully elec- 2020 and deployed at a commercialized scale
trified rail-based transit for both long-distance from 2030. Both CO2 utilization and geologic
and short-distance by 2050. storage have great potential compared to the
yyBuildings: increasing energy efficiency for both amount of CO2 captured in the illustrative path-
existing and new buildings through innovative way (0.1 to 1 billion ton per year for the former,
technologies (like advanced, low-carbon buildings, more than 1 billion ton annually for the latter).
which will increase their share in urban regions
from 2% in 2012 to 50% in 2020 and help to 2.3 Alternative pathways and pathway
reduce the heating and cooling demand); to sub- robustness
stitute for coal boilers, the application of advanced
heating facilities, such as ground source heat In order to achieve the illustrative decarbonization
pumps and decentralized solar heating systems as pathway, there are key measures that must deviate
well as natural gas boilers and CHP for centralized significantly from current trends. This includes a
heating; development of high-energy-efficiency low-carbon transition in electricity generation even
cooling systems, lighting system and appliances; as electricity demand increases faster than gains in
the large-scale use of renewable energy, such as end-use energy efficiency. The former dimension
solar water heaters in residential buildings. depends on the development and deployment of
yyIndustry: high-efficiency waste heat recycling non-fossil fuel power generation; the improvement
technologies, high efficiency boilers and motors in energy efficiency concerns key industrial sec-
across all sectors; energy saving technologies in tors, vehicles, urban buildings, and residential ap-
high-energy-intensive industries permitting a pliances. There are still uncertainties with some key
fall from 2010 to 2050 of the energy consump- measures and technologies that might affect the
tion per unit of product output of crude steel, achievement of this pathway, such as the integra-
cement, ammonia and ethylene by 48%, 32%, tion of intermittent renewable power into the pow-
26%, and 26%, respectively. er system, application of CCS facilities, supply of
yyElectricity generation: an increased reliance on natural gases, and penetration of electric vehicles.
non-fossil fuel power generation technologies is
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 90
China
In case the magnitude of the measures discussed rate, and increase the share of consumption in its
above is less than assumed, some alternative ap- GDP. To maintain the growth rate at a relative-
proaches could be envisioned, leading to different ly high level while reducing the investment rate,
emissions scenarios. For example, the proportion China needs to increase the productivity of its
of non-fossil fuel electricity is 41% in 2050 in the investment. Deep decarbonization strategies can
illustrative deep decarbonization pathway, of which contribute to this gain in productivity through: 1)
nuclear power represents a share of 31%. However, shifting the structure of the economy towards less
if the nuclear development is hindered in the future, capital intensive sectors (e.g. from industrial sec-
coal power (with CCS) or renewable power might tors to service sectors); 2) improving the efficiency
grow in its place. Increase reliance on wind and so- of capital investment to produce output, especially
lar energy in the power sector is possible, though through energy saving; and 3) increase the produc-
it largely depends on the possibility of developing tivity of other factors, especially labor and energy.
new energy storage solutions or enough natural gas
power units to manage the resource intermittency. 2.5 Challenges, opportunities, and
enabling conditions
2.4 Additional measures and deeper
pathways China’s future development is the source of much
uncertainty when examining potential emission
Dematerialization reduction pathways.
A large portion of China’s emissions are linked to First, the level of economic growth is largely uncer-
the process of urbanization since large quantities of tain. The average Chinese growth rate has been a
construction materials will be required to build and little more than 10% in the past twenty years. The
maintain urban infrastructure, especially cement 18th CPC National Congress has projected that the
and steel. Measures to decrease the demolition GDP growth rate will be around 7.2% in the next
of buildings and transportation infrastructures will decade. This reduction of 3 to 4 percentage points
contribute to further deeper decarbonization by is more than the typical growth rate of developed
combining a reduction of material consumption in- countries. China’s economy will continue to devel-
tensity and reuse of waste construction materials. op at a relatively high speed, varying from 5% to
10%. This expected variation will have a significant
Technology innovation impact on the actual level of energy demand.
The early deployment of key mitigation technolo-
gies can help China follow a deeper decarbonization The second aspect is future adjustments to industrial
pathway that will also contribute to the growth of structure and changes in the mode of development.
China’s economy in other ways. Notably, the large China’s energy consumption per unit of GDP is twice
scale of the Chinese market, production economies the average level of the world, which means there
of scale, and learning-by-doing can help accelerate is a significant opportunity for reductions in energy
cost reductions and diffusion of low-carbon energy intensity. However, the decline cannot depend on
options, in line with China’s development strategy incremental technology change, because China’s
to grow “strategic emerging industries.” power plants are newly-built with efficient super-
critical and ultra-supercritical units, and for ener-
Structural change gy-intensive industries the efficiency gap compared
China’s growth has been characterized by a high to developed countries is low (10%-20%).Therefore,
saving and investment rate in the past three dec- the focal point in China is to adjust the industrial
ades. In the future, China will maintain its growth structure and change the mode of development
rate around 7%, reduce its saving and investment towards less heavy and chemical industry as well
91 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
China
as less production of energy-consuming products moted, including the reform of the price system
like steel and cement. Nevertheless, the issues of and fiscal taxation system. Although China’s energy
how to adjust and how to identify the degree and price remains high in developing countries, the price
intensity of the adjustment have great uncertainties. structure and pricing system is very reasonable, es-
The third aspect is urbanization, triggered by the pecially that of coal and electricity. The current price
demand of social development. The demand for of coal and electricity does not include the environ-
steel and cement is very large in the process of mental cost, and so the exploitation of resources
urbanization. According to estimates, there may does great damage to the environment. The reform
be an increase of 1 percentage point in the urban- of resource taxes and the proposal of a carbon tax
ization rate each year. must be considered in energy policy, along with the
Finally, exports are an important factor in the econ- price system and fiscal and financial field.
omy, production of which significantly contributes
to total emissions. Currently, 25% of energy is used Pricing Carbon
for the production of export products in China, and China has established 7 pilot emissions trading
given that adjustments of the structure of exports is schemes (ETSs) at provincial and city levels with a
not an easy task, manufacturing exports (and asso- view to establish a national ETS around 2020. The
ciated emissions) are expected to remain important future development of China’s ETS should build
in the long run. This area of potential emission re- upon the experience gained in regional pilots and
ductions would benefit from further investigation. resemble the approach taken in the EU ETS and the
Australian and Californian schemes. A careful design
2.6 Near-term priorities is key for the success of China’s ETS, especially in the
electricity sector, as is practical and reliable compa-
The reduction of CO2 emissions is not only a re- ny-level measurements, reporting, and verification
sponse to climate change, but it also addresses the of emissions. An early stage of harmonization with
urgent demand of developing the national econo- design of other international ETSs will facilitate the
my. If the coordination works well, the strategy of linkage with these ETSs in the future.
climate change mitigation and sustainable devel-
opment will lead to a win-win situation. Reduce coal consumption
Methods for reducing the use of coal have many
Change the concept of development synergistic effects. The main way to improve the
The guiding ideology and the concept of devel- domestic environment is to reduce coal mining.
opment must be changed among all cadres. The Substantial coal mining not only consumes a large
central government should understand the trade- amount of water, but it also leads to slag pen-
off between GDP growth highly dependent on etration and deposition, resulting in the serious
resource industry and the cost paid for resources pollution of groundwater resources. In addition,
losses. The central and western regions need to coal mining causes the collapse of areas that have
be redesigned and readjusted so as to draw more been mined. The area of subsidence in China has
attention to climate change. At the same time, the reached 10,000 km2. Furthermore, conventional
evaluation mechanism of officials must be revised. pollutants, such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen ox-
The promotion of a position should not only rely ides, and dust (including the thick fog and haze
on the growth rate of GDP but should also look at weather in Beijing and Tianjin) are partly caused
a comprehensive analysis of gain and loss. by burning coal. Therefore, the reduction of coal
consumption is essential for China to improve
Deepen the energy reform domestic environmental quality.
The reform of the energy sector needs to be pro-
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 92
France
France
Sandrine Mathy, 1 Country profile
Université Grenoble Alpes, 1
CNRS, PACTE-EDDEN 1.1 The national context for deep decarbonization
and sustainable development
Patrick Criqui,
Université Grenoble Alpes, France has a low endowment of domestic fossil resources (domestic
production represents less than 2% of primary consumption) and
CNRS, PACTE-EDDEN energy imports, mostly oil and gas, are a substantial source of total
external trade deficit (these imports represent around 110 billion
Jean-Charles Hourcade, US$ (2012), a deficit close to the total external trade deficit in
Centre International de Recherche sur 2012). Faced with this situation, France has developed a specific
l’Environnement et le Développement energy security strategy resorting notably to the launching of an
important nuclear energy program in the 1970s. Today, France is
(CIRED) in particular equipped with 63 GWe of installed nuclear capacity,
which supplies 77% of the electricity produced and 24% of total
final energy. As a result, France is today already a relatively low
energy consumption country (2.6 toe/cap) and has GHG emission
intensities at the lowest end of OECD countries (5.7 tCO2/cap).
In the French policy debate, decarbonization was first introduced
in 2005 with the adoption of a Factor 4 emission reduction target
for 2050, compared with 1990. More recently the discussion on
carbon taxation has given rise to several commissions and reports
(Quinet 2009, Quinet 2013; Rocard 2009). The experts who drafted
the Quinet report in 2009 recommended a carbon tax set at a rate
of €32 per ton of CO2 in 2010, rising to €200 (150-350) in 2050
as the implicit value of the constraints for reducing CO2 emissions
entailed by the targets for 2020 and 2050. In 2009, France was
therefore on the verge of adopting a carbon tax for diffuse emissions
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 93
France France
(transport and building) that, combined with the threshold defining fuel poverty (expenditures
ETS for large industries and electricity, would have on fuel and heating represent more than 10%
provided a comprehensive system of economic of income); in particular, low-income house-
incentives through carbon prices in all sectors. holds living mostly in rural areas or in small
However, the constitutional council dismissed the towns spend on average 15% of their income
law on the eve of its enforcement, while it had on energy, for housing and transport.
already been voted upon by the parliament. More 3. a long term effort in directing land and urban
recently, decarbonization has been an important planning towards more sustainable patterns
component of the Energy Transition, which has through ambitious infrastructure deployment.
been set as a priority by President François Hol- This is in particular crucial to control mobility
lande. To investigate this issue, the National De- needs in a relatively low-density country.
bate on Energy Transition took place in 2013 as 4. the highly controversial issue of nuclear energy
a deliberative process between different groups beyond 2025. France’s nuclear power plants are,
of stakeholders (NGOs, Trade Unions, Business, on average, nearly 30-year old and an intense
MPs, Mayors) aiming at identifying and assessing debate concerns the choice between upgrading
the consequences of different scenarios. them with new nuclear plants, extending their
Three policy commitments structure the decar- service life in some cases, or replacing them al-
bonization scenarios (or “energy transition trajec- together with other technologies.
tories”) for France:
yyEuropean targets to be translated into domestic 1.2 GHG emissions: current levels,
drivers, and past trends
objectives: EU 3x20 for 2020 targets (20% re-
duction in EU GHG from 1990 levels; raising the GHG emissions in France amounted to
share of EU energy consumption produced from 549 MtCO2eq and 392 MtCO2 in 1990 (ex-
renewable resources to 20%; 20% improvement cluding LULUCF). In 2010 they were down to
in the EU’s energy efficiency) 501 MtCO2eq and 366 MtCO2, respectively a 9%
yyFactor 4 reduction of emissions in 2050 com- and 7% decrease. LULUCF induce negative emis-
pared to 1990 (-75%) sions (-24 MtCO2eq in 1990 and -37 MtCO2eq in
yyThe reduction of the share of nuclear in power 2010). Between 70% and 75% of the GHG emis-
generation, down to 50% by 2025, target set in sions are CO2 emissions (Figure 1 and Figure 2).
2012 by President François Hollande
Key challenges for the French economy and so- Transport
ciety that are directly or indirectly related to the The main sector for GHG emissions is the transport
purpose of decarbonization include: sector with 138MtCOe representing 27% of GHG
1. the rebuild of industrial competitiveness to emissions and 38% of CO2 emissions (excluding
counterbalance the de-industrialization ob- LULUCF). The 17% increase since 1990 has been
served over the last 40 years (industry’s share mostly triggered by road transport, which repre-
in the economy has been steadily falling dur- sents almost all the emissions from this sector.
ing the last 30 years from 25% in the 1980s The main sector for GHG emissions is the transport
to 19% in the 2010s), and the 2.6 million fall sector with 138MtCOe representing 27% of GHG
of employment in industry. emissions and 38% of CO2 emissions (excluding
2. the reduction of energy poverty, which has LULUCF). The 17% increase since 1990 has been
become a crucial issue as, in 2010, more than mostly triggered by road transport, which represents
6% of the French population is below the almost all the emissions from this sector.
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 94
France
In the passenger transport sector, the rise of mobil- (+57%), at an even faster rate than GDP, and the
ity, notably driven by a rise of the distance per cap- partial decoupling observed since the 2008 eco-
ita, has been the main source of sectoral emissions nomic crisis has only moderated this rise without
increases, notably because modal breakdown has reversing it. The evolution of the modal breakdown
remained stable at an 80% share for individual cars. has also played an important role in the increase
Energy efficiency improvements have also been sig- of carbon emissions, with a continuous decline of
nificant, particularly in the last decade, but not suf- rail share (from 27% in 1984 to 8% in 2010) and
ficient to compensate for the rise of activity levels. the domination of road (84% of freight transport
In the freight transport sector, the rise of emissions in 2010) that were only partially compensated by
has been driven by a continuous rise of activity energy efficiency. According to the government’s
levels; indeed, demand for freight transport has targets, rail and water transport modal share has
increased very fast over the 1990-2008 period to reach 25% in 2022 compared to 14% in 2007.
Figure 1. Decomposition of GHG and Energy CO2 Emissions in 2010
1a. GHG emissions, by source 1b. Energy-related CO2 emissions by fuel and sectors
150 MtCO2
MtCO2 eq 371 Energy-related 125
emissions
506 Electricity
21 Processes 100 (Allocation
-37 by End Use Sector)
93 Agriculture 75
14 Waste 50 Total MtCO2
6 Fugitive 25 Natural Gas 100
Petroleum Products 224
0 Coal 43
Electricity Generation Transportation Other
10
LULUCF Industry Buildings
(Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry)
34 90 138 94 366
Figure 2. Decomposition of historical energy-related CO2 Emissions, 1990 to 2010
2a. Energy-related CO2 emissions drivers 2b. Energy-related CO2 emissions by sectors
400 MtCO2 392 389 405 414
15% Five-year variation rate of the drivers 300 366 Other
Buildings
10% 200
Transportation
5% GDP per capita 100
0% Population Industry
0 Electricity Generation
-5% Energy per GDP 1990 1995 2000 2005
2010
-10% Energy Related
1995 2000 2005 2010 CO2 Emissions
1990 1995 2000 2005 per Energy
95 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
France
Buildings steel and cement production respectively), and
The residential and tertiary sector represents 19% technical progress has permitted significant re-
of GHG emissions, and its increase has been driv- ductions of the CO2 content of production (e.g.
en by demographic trends and a steady increase the diffusion of electric arc furnace for steel pro-
in the per capita surface. Important decarboniza- duction driving the emission rate from 1.78tCO2/t
tion of the energy consumption happened in the steel in 1990 to 1.32tCO2/t steel in 2010).
1980s because of the electrification associated
with the nuclear program, and nowadays electric- Agriculture
ity is one of the main carriers used for heating, Agriculture represents 18% of total GHG emis-
which is a French peculiarity. Energy efficiency sions, N2O, and methane being major contribu-
improvements developed during the 1980s and tors (51% and 41% respectively) while CO2 from
have been reinforced between 2000 and 2010 energy consumption represents only 8%. Major
notably thanks to the implementation of succes- sources of emissions include land fertilization
sive thermal regulations for new buildings and to (46%) and enteric fermentation (27%). Between
the introduction of fiscal incentives for thermal 1990 and 2010 GHG emissions have decreased
retrofitting. by 8%, particularly because of the decrease in
mineral fertilizing uses, in milk production inten-
Industry sification and in the size of cow livestock.
Industry represented 18% of GHG emissions in
2010, a 42% fall since 1990, half of it being due Power
to the drop of industrial production over the last France is characterized by low emissions in the
three years. The main drivers for the significant power sector because of the contribution of nu-
decrease in emissions between 1990 and 2010 clear (77%) and hydro (11%) energies. On average,
are the overall decarbonization of the energy used current emissions in the power sector amount to
in industry and further improvements in energy 62 gCO2/kWh; this is to be compared with the
efficiency, notably triggered by the European European average 347 gCO2/kWh. However, due
Emission Trading Scheme. In particular, structural to the weight of nuclear, renewable electricity
evolutions have gone towards a decrease of en- (excluding hydro) currently represents only 2%
ergy-intensive industries (e.g. -17% and -27% for of electricity production.
2 National deep decarbonization pathways
2
2.1 Illustrative deep Decarbonization Pathway combines an overall
decarbonization pathway ambitious energy efficiency improvement pro-
gram and a diversification of low-carbon energy
2.1.1 High-level characterization carriers mobilizing electricity penetration, bio-
energy and renewables, or waste heat.
The assessment of the Illustrative Deep Decar- Between 2010 and 2050, economic projections
bonization Pathway for France is based on the for France anticipate an average annual growth
results obtained with the IMACLIM-France mod-
el, developed at CIRED.1 This Illustrative Deep
1 For more information on the IMACLIM modelling platform, see http://www.imaclim.centre-cired.fr/?lang=en
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 96
France
of 1.8%, population is expected to increase by creasing by 20% in absolute terms, sees its share
11%, and the structure of the economy is sup- increasing from 24% to 39% in 2050.
posed to be stabilized during the next decades. The decrease of the carbon intensity of fu-
The deep efficiency measures would reduce final els in end-use sectors is allowed by a division
energy consumption by nearly 50 percent in 2050 by three of coal consumption and, even more
compared to 2010, and electricity, although de- crucial for the transport sector, by a massive
Table1. The development indicators and energy service demand drivers in France
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
72
Population [Millions] 65 66 69 71
GDP per capita [$/capita] 33400 39400 45400 52500 61500
Figure 3. Energy Pathways, by source 3b. Final Energy
3a. Primary Energy
4.40 EJ EJ
4.0 - 50 % 3.74 4.0 - 49 %
0.84
0.60 3.0 0.87 3.0
0.96 2.22
0.35
2.0 0.21 Nuclear 2.0 1.90 0.74 Electricity
1.42 Renewables & Biomass 0.68 Biomass
1.74 1.0 0.39 Natural Gas 1.57 0.17 Liquids
0.18 Oil 1.0 0.28 Gas
0.02 Coal 0.02 Coal
0.26 0 0.82 0
2010 2050 2050
0.13
2010
Figure 4. Energy-related CO2 Emissions Drivers, 2010 to 2050 4b. The pillars of decarbonization
4a. Energy-related CO2 emissions drivers
100% Ten-year variation rate of the drivers Pillar 1. Energy Intensity of GDP
Energy ef ciency 3.6 MJ/$
80% 2010
60%
40% 2050 0.85 - 76 %
20% GDP per capita Pillar 2. Electricity Emissions Intensity
0% Population Decarbonization of electricity 62 gCO2/kWh
2010
-20% Energy per GDP
-40%
2050 30 - 52 %
-60% Energy-related CO2 Emissions
-80% Pillar 3. Share of electricity in total nal energy
per Energy Electri cation of end-uses 24 + 15 pt
2010
-100%
2020 2030 2040 2050 2050 39 %
2010 2020 2030 2040
97 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
France
Figure 5. Energy-related CO2 Emissions Pathway, 2.1.2 Sectoral characterization
by Sector, 2010 to 2050
Energy supply
500 MtCO2 Despite the deep electrification of energy con-
450 sumption, electricity demand slightly decreases
over 2010-2050 as a result of strong efficiency
400 gains in the energy system and a convergence
366 of net exports (30 TWh in 2010) to zero by
2050. Power-generation technologies are deeply
350 10 - 81 % modified over the period towards a diversifi-
300 94 cation of energy carriers with, in particular, a
significant long-term decrease in nuclear share
250 in the mix, a significant increase of renewable
energy: in 2050, nuclear represents 25% of
200 production, while wind, photovoltaic, and other
non-hydro renewables produce 140TWh, 70TWh
150 138 and 14TWh respectively. Due to environmental
constraints, and in spite of an important techni-
100 3 Other cal potential, hydro production is considered to
68 15 Buildings remain stable around 60TWh. Combined-cycle
50 90 21 Transportation gas turbines are needed to ensure both the
transition between the decrease of nuclear and
0 34 19 Industry the full deployment of renewables and the bal-
9 Electricity Generation ancing of the network with high intermittent
sources in the long term.
2010 2050 Other energy carriers are also deeply decar-
bonized thanks to the diffusion of bioenergy:
substitution of oil by gaseous fuels and biomass. in 2050, second generation biofuels and biogas
On the supply side, the decrease of the share represent, respectively, 22% of liquid fuels and
of nuclear (from 77% in 2010 to 50% in 2025 53% of gas.
and 25% in 2050) does not create a rise of
carbon emissions because it is accompanied by Transportation
deep diffusion of renewable electricity—mostly In the transport sector, total passenger mobility
hydro, wind and PV—which increases from 17% is stabilized over the period notably thanks to a
in 2010 to 71% in 2050. limitation of urban sprawling, combined with the
Under this pathway, buildings and electricity development of new services for the reduction of
emissions are deeply decarbonized and the core mobility (remote working) and the deployment
of emissions remaining in 2050 comes from the of a functionality economy (car sharing systems),
transport and industry sectors. As for transport, which decrease the global demand for mobility
very important reductions are obtained over the particularly at local level. In parallel, a 30% in-
2010-2050 period, but given the high initial crease of the modal share of collective transport
emission level transport still represents 30% and soft modes alternatives (bicycles) is permitted
of 2050 CO2 emissions. Industry becomes the by i) organizational measures and infrastructure
second major emission contributor in 2050 deployment for urban and local mobility and ii)
(26%); this is notably because of the assumption
of constant structure of the economy which
assumes in particular a constant share of en-
ergy-intensive industries.
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 98
France
new investments in rail infrastructures and the Rail transport reaches 25% of freight transporta-
retrofitting of existing rail infrastructures. On tion in 2050 and water transport is developed.
the technology side, motorization types are di- Concerning trucks, major evolutions are energy
versified to adjust to specific mobility segments efficiency improvements (reaching 30% in 2050)
(hybrid electric and full electric vehicles) and of- and the switch to natural gas.
fer more flexibility in uses (range extender and
plug-in hybrid electric vehicles). Significant energy Buildings
efficiency improvements are assumed: +50% for More than two thirds of the dwellings that will
cars (2,5l/100km on average), +20% for buses, exist in 2050 are already built so that efficiency
+40% for planes. improvement through the thermal retrofitting of
A decoupling of freight volumes and economic existing buildings is a crucial component of the
activity driving a stabilization of freight demand decarbonization strategy. A proactive strategy is
in the medium and long term is obtained through necessary to address nearly all existing building
better logistics and the development of eco-con- (600,000 retrofitting per year after 2020 in the
ception or new technologies such as 3D printing. residential sector and 21 Mm2 in the commercial
Figure 6. Energy Supply Pathways, by Resource
Carbon intensity gCO2/MJ 80
62.1 gCO2/kWh 60 60.2 60
50 40
34.8
40 1.0 EJ 20
22.6 30 0.5 Biogas
20 0 Natural gas
600 TWh 10 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0 6b. Pipeline Gas
500
400 Other 72.0 gCO2/MJ 80
300 Other renewables
200 Biomass 60
100 Solar
2.0 EJ 40
0 Wind
2010 58.0
Hydro
1.5 20
Nuclear
Natural Gas 1.0 0
Coal
2020 2030 2040 0.5
6a. Electricity 2050
Biofuel
0 Oil
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
6c. Liquid Fuels
99 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
France
sector) and ambitious improvements per unit are production, industry remaining at a constant
considered (-55% in the commercial sector and 20% share in GDP, neither on final industrial
-65% in the residential). Additionally and con- energy mix, the decrease of the carbon inten-
sistently with the measures from the “Grenelle de sity being essentially due to the development
l’Environnement,” standards impose new buildings of biogas and of renewable energy. The major
to consume less than 50 kWh/m2 in 2020 and to breakthrough specific to the industrial sector is
reach zero energy consumption after 2020. In par- a significant reduction of energy consumption,
allel, the share of multi-dwelling buildings should which is obtained by the diffusion of optimized
increase, inducing only a small increase in the per industrial processes (circular economy and in-
capita surface. Electricity and off-grid renewables dustrial ecology principles), combined with 30%
become dominant heating fuels and specific elec- energy efficiency gains.
tricity consumption is controlled by a 30% perfor-
mance improvement for all appliances, correspond- 2.2 Assumptions
ing to a pervasive penetration of the most energy
efficient appliances currently available. While low or zero energy solutions may be rel-
atively easily implemented in new buildings, the
Industry retrofitting of existing buildings will have to be
The Illustrative Decarbonization Pathway con- implemented at a very large scale, in the range of
siders no major change on the structure of 600,000 units per year. This will require a com-
Figure 7. Energy Use Pathways for Each Sector, by Fuel, 2010 – 2050
Carbon intensity gCO2/MJ 70
69.0 60
gCO2/MJ 60 gCO2/MJ 60
50 50 50
58.8 40 33.1 40 40
30
30 30
20
10 20 20
EJ
21.4 1.5 10 25.3 10
0 0 0
10.3
1.5 EJ 1.5 EJ
1.0 1.0 1.0
0.5 Grid 0.5 Grid 0.5 Grid
0 electricity 0 electricity 0 electricity
Liquid fuels
Solid biomass Solid biomass
Pipeline Gas
Liquid fuels Liquid fuels
Pipeline Gas Pipeline Gas
Coal Coal
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
7a. Industry 7b. Buildings 7c. Transportation
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 100
France
bination of technical advancements (incremental dividing lines: the level of demand and the energy
innovations in the building practices and radical mix (between a priority to nuclear, to renewables,
innovations in materials and control instruments), or to a diversified set of energy carriers).
capacity building in the industry, and specific policy All these trajectories describe a plausible deep
measures to overcome legal and regulatory barriers. decarbonization pathway, since they all reach the
The transport pathway is supported by a combi- Factor 4 emission reduction target (SOB and EFF
nation of land and urban planning, organizational even reach more ambitious reductions of carbon
innovations, and behavioral changes. Technolog- to leave more flexibility on other GHG gases) and
ical innovation is also decisive to promote smart the Illustrative Deep Decarbonization Pathway be-
logistics and support the diffusion of alternative longs to the EFF family.
motorization types (hybrid electric, plug-in hy- The common features among these four pathways
brid electric, full electric, and natural gas vehi- are numerous, although each supposes different
cles). In particular, the development of natural ambition levels for sector by sector developments,
gas vehicles in France could be facilitated by its and define a set of minimum requirements to
development in neighboring countries, which are reach the Factor 4 overall target. This concerns
already adopting this technology, and by the pro- in particular:
gressive deployment of biogas combined with the yyIn the building sector: a deep retrofit of build-
decrease in gas consumption for heating.
In industry, technological breakthroughs are not ings with important efficiency improvements
central to the Illustrative Decarbonization Path- (at least 300,000 units in the residential and
way; the optimization of industrial practices (cir- 15Mm2 of commercial surface with an aver-
cular economy and industrial ecology principles) age energy efficiency gains of 45%), a phase
is the key option to decouple energy use and out of oil product uses for heating and sys-
carbon emissions from production. tematic improvements of appliances’ energy
Finally, energy production is highly decarbon- efficiency
ized essentially thanks to power-generation re- yyIn the transport sector, a switch from indi-
newables, biogas and biofuels, the development vidual cars and trucks to rail and collective
of all these sources being in line with available transport and important efficiency gains in
assessments of their potentials for 2030 (Tanguy vehicles (at least 50%)
& Vidalenc, 2012). yyIn industry, energy efficiency improvements
(at least 20%) and optimization of industrial
2.3 Alternative pathways and pathway processes
robustness These common features provide a robust identifi-
cation of the key dimensions of the decarboniza-
After consideration of 16 pre-existing energy tion strategies for France. However, the intensity
scenarios (from NGOs, or academic research, or of some actions driving the pace and ultimate
public agencies), the National Debate on Energy potentials of energy demand reduction and of
Transition in 2013 identified four families of possi- energy decarbonization in the Illustrative Path-
ble pathways: SOB for sobriety, EFF for efficiency, way may be questioned. This concerns particularly
DIV for diversity, and DEC for decarbonization the retrofit of the whole building stock by 2050
(Ardity et al., 2012). Each describes contrasted implying 600,000 annual retrofits, the role of
but consistent alternatives for the deep decar- biogas as an important combustion fuel, the mix
bonization of the French energy system along two of new technologies, including biofuels, replac-
ing the conventional car (electric vehicles, hybrid
101 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
France
vehicles, and NGV) and the rapid scaling-up as tion), hydrogen (from renewable electricity),
well as high final level for renewable electricity. heat and a catalyzer can be used as storage
Should these targets prove to be too difficult to capacity in gas network and as a non-carbon
attain, then the decarbonization strategy should energy for transportation.
integrate the constraints and be adjusted in due yyCarbon capture and storage: significant stor-
time. To compensate for weaker reduction in final age capacity in the North of France could store
energy consumption, a higher level of decarbon- 40 MtCO2/year from 2040 mainly for industry.
ization could be sought with more nuclear and yyNuclear cogeneration, although a sensitive is-
more of other decarbonized sources, particularly sue, can be used to supply heat for buildings
biomass and waste heat, and finally the introduc- and industry.
tion of carbon capture and storage, particularly in
industry. A DIV – i.e. diversified mix – trajectory 2.5 Challenges, opportunities, and
would provide such an alternative pathway resort- enabling conditions
ing to less ambitious assumptions on efficiency
but still reaching deep emission reductions thanks Bio-energy supply
to more low-carbon supply in due time. It is worth A crucial challenge for the Illustrative Pathway is
noting that a DIV-type trajectory can be consid- associated with the capacity of the agricultural
ered as a “second-best” pathway, in the sense that sector to develop an important bio-energy supply
it is not the most robust given its dependence with second generation biofuels and biogas for
upon the availability of a vast set of not cur- energy substitution.
rently commercially available technological op-
tions (notably CCS); such pathway then offers a Implementation of a carbon tax
solution if it appears that the implementation of One of the most important instruments to trigger
an EFF-type trajectory does not allow to reach the necessary changes in technologies and behav-
the deep decarbonization trajectory because of iors for the energy transition is the implementa-
unexpected barriers and difficulties in mobilizing tion of a price signal through carbon taxation,
energy efficiency potentials. which could be used to lower taxation on labor,
The Illustrative Deep Decarbonization Pathway to finance energy efficiency and renewable energy
relies on the assumption of an economic com- development, or be transferred as a lump sum to
petitive nuclear in the future. If this assump- households, particularly the more vulnerable ones.
tion proves to be optimistic for future nuclear
development, more renewable energies can be Financing the energy transition
mobilized for electricity production reorienting Whatever the energy pathway, the energy tran-
the scenario in a SOB-type trajectory. sition would require very large investments
amounting to around 2,000 bn€ over the period
2.4 Additional measures and deeper (the building retrofitting program only would re-
pathways quire between 20 bn€ and 30 bn€ each year). Even
if the energy transition will more than compensate
Some technical options are not considered in the extra investment by decreases in the energy
the Illustrative Pathway, but play a central role bills of households and industries, one of the main
in alternative scenarios presented above, notably: barriers to finance the energy transition is the
yyMethanation: synthetic methane from a recom- lack of short-term profitability of energy transi-
bination of carbon dioxide (from fuel combus-
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 102
France
tion investments for private agents: the difference authorities are already in charge of transportation,
between private discount rates (typically 10-15% land planning, economic development and train-
p.a. or more) and social discount rates (2-6% p.a.) ing. Participatory processes are also an element
has since a long time been identified everywhere of acceptability of energy transition. Further, by
as the major cause of the “efficiency gap.” Several empowering local governance systems, national
proposals for triggering the financing capabilities policies could leverage existing local experiments,
exist: orienting household savings, such as saving accelerate policy responses, foster resource mobi-
accounts (1,300 bn€), in low-carbon investments, lization, and engage local stakeholders.
creating a public bank such as the KfW in Germany
for the thermal retrofitting of buildings, creating Stability in climate policy orientations
an entity for the financing of the energy transi- The long term Factor 4 objective that became
tion (focusing on the retrofitting program, and on a legal target in 2005 is an important catalyst
the development of renewable energies) with a for climate policies by stabilizing expectations
guarantee from the State.. of consumers and economic agents in their
low-carbon investment decisions; a medium to
Professional transitions and formation long-term stability of climate policies is need-
Employment has become a very central issue of ed. Although this target has been unopposed
the energy transition debate. Quantitative stud- by any stakeholder group since its very first
ies of the energy transition in France conclude to introduction by the Mission Interministérielle
a positive assessment with massive job creation pour l’Effet de Serre in 2003, some govern-
potentials in renewable energy, construction, infra- mental decisions apparently contradictory to
structures, and collective transports. New skills will official objectives have been observed notably
have to be developed (for thermal retrofitting for for wind and photovoltaic policies: administra-
instance) at a very large scale and as rapidly as pos- tive decisions impose new constraints on wind
sible. On the other hand, occupational retraining development and, since 2011, the feed-in tariffs
programs will be needed for jobs in activities such for photovoltaic are revised every 3 months.
as road freight transport, car industry, or in nucle- As a result, wind and PV development have
ar energy. With around 10% of active population significantly slowed down and the 20% target
currently unemployed, the acceptability of energy for renewable energy development in 2020 may
transition is conditioned upon credible answers for become unattainable. The implementation a
professional transitions in these sectors. pre-established increasing carbon price would
be central for a full environmental and economic
Local authorities, governance, and social efficiency of public policies.
feasibility
Concrete examples of energy transition actions Ambitious EU and international climate ener-
such as building retrofitting, optimizing local re- gy objectives
newable resources in function of specific uses, Ambitious EU and international climate energy
developing networks for heat or for gas, show objectives are also of paramount importance for
that concrete actions already happen at local numerous reasons: leverage effect of EU objec-
level. Energy issues are indeed directly linked to tives and induced directives on national policies,
many other local policies: urban planning, local credibility and acceptability of national policies,
transports, wastes, housing , and also social pol- industrial strategies for low carbon technologies
icies at the urban or municipality levels. Regional and economic competitiveness issues.
103 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
France
2.6 Near-term priorities can increase the social and political desirability
of these measures.
Near-term sectoral priorities should focus on In addition, specific financing mechanisms must
renewable energy development and the im- be conceived to support in particular the massive
plementation of the building retrofitting plan. retrofitting program and a carbon price has to
These two actions are crucial for any deep de- be rapidly implemented, even at a low level
carbonization pathway in France, but face strong during the first years, but with a pre-established
inertias (both because they are associated to increasing rate (in the range of 4-5% p.a., the
long-lived infrastructure and require the devel- level of the social discount rate), in order to
opment of specific skills that are not current- reach a level near to the 100 €/tCO2 in 2030
ly available), which make early development that has been already identified as consistent
crucial. In addition, these actions have strong with the policy targets.
potential positive effects on employment that
France References
zzArdity, M., et al., 2012. Quelle la mission présidée par Émile
trajectoire pour atteindre le mix Quinet, Commissariat Général à
énergétique en 2025 ? Quels la Stratégie et à la prospective,
types de scénarios possibles à Rapports et documents, 354 p.
horizons 2030 et 2050, dans le zzRocard, M., 2009. Rapport de la
respect des engagements clima- conférence des experts et de la
tiques de la France ? Rapport du table ronde sur la contribution
groupe de travail n°2 du conseil Climat et Energie, La docu-
national sur la transition énergé- mentation Française, Rapports
tique. 72p. publics, 84 p.
zzTanguy H., E. Vidalenc, 2012. Re-
zzQuinet, A., 2009. La valeur newable Electricity Potentials in
tutélaire du carbone, Rapport France: A Long Term Perspective,
de la commission présidée par Energy Procedia, Volume 20,
Alain Quinet, Centre d’Analyse 2012, Pages 247-257.
Stratégique, Rapports et docu-
ments N°16, 424 p.
zzQuinet, E., 2013. L’évaluation
socio-économique des inves-
tissements publics, Rapport de
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 104
Germany
Germany
1 Country Profile
1
1.1 The National Context for Deep Decarbonization
and Sustainable Development
Piet Sellke, Dialogik In 2010, Germany, one of the largest economies in the world, decided
Ortwinn Rehn, Dialogik to deeply transform its energy system across all sectors of the econ-
omy with the goal of making the system highly efficient, renewable,
and safe. This energy transformation, known as the ‘Energiewende,’
translates notably into the ambitious objective of reducing CO2-emis-
sions in 2050 by at least 80% compared to 1990 levels (a more
1 ambitious reduction target of 95% being also envisaged), in parallel
with a complete phasing out of nuclear energy by 2022 (from its 22%
share of 2010 electricity generation).
This transformation of electricity generation sources is therefore a sig-
nificant challenge, with its substantial diffusion of renewable energy in
parallel with the replacement of nuclear energy. Eight nuclear power
plants in Germany were shut down in 2011, equaling 8.4 GW and
the remaining nuclear power plants still represent 16% of production
in 2012. In parallel, installed capacity of renewable energy reached
75.6 GW at the end of 2012, representing 23% of electricity produc-
tion (where the largest contribution came from wind energy at 8% of
total production). Coal-fired power plants still play a dominant role
(producing 45% of total generation), and gas power plants produce
12% of total generation.
Beyond these technological changes, the challenge is further com-
plicated by two additional objectives: energy security and energy
affordability (especially for the private consumer), which together
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 105
Germany Germany
with climate (and environmental) protection are The monitoring of the federal government, sup-
referred to as the ”energy policy triangle of objec- ported by the inquiries of the commission on the
tives.” A crucial aspect of this transformation is the Energiewende, continuously measure the imple-
deep diffusion of renewable energy sources, given mentation of the energy policies and objectives
the objective that they provide 60% of end-use in these areas.
energy consumption and 80% of electricity gener-
ation in 2050. Several studies report that Germany 1.2 GHG Emissions: Current Levels,
does in fact have the potential to reach these goals Drivers and Past Trends
with renewable energy by relying on a diverse mix
of energy sources such as wind power, biomass, The level of GHG-emissions in 2010 was
and photovoltaic as well as a strong emphasis on 947 MtCO2e, with energy-related emissions consti-
energy efficiency. After an initial phase of doubt, tuting the largest source, followed by industrial and
the innovative potential of the energy transition is agricultural processes (Figure 1a). Energy-related
currently accepted by German industry. CO2 emissions, reaching a high of 9.7 tCO2/capita
Beyond technological innovation and diffusion, in 2010, were dominated by the coal-intensive
current activities associated with the Energiewende electricity generation system while the three end-
focus on implementation of the required new gov- use sectors – industry, transportation and buildings
ernance structure for this transition, with a con- – contribute nearly equal levels of CO2 emissions,
certed effort to integrate a diversity of views on although the structure of fossil fuels is very differ-
the energy transformation pathways. Specifically, ent among them. Overall, coal is responsible for
because of Germany’s federal system, it was neces- the largest share of CO2 emissions, followed by
sary to launch several coordinating bodies to bring petroleum products and natural gas (Figure 1b).
together actors from different levels of government. Since 1990, energy-related CO2 emissions have
To monitor the transformation, the federal govern- decreased despite economic growth due to the
ment initiated a new process called ‘energy of the combination of the transformation of the East
future’ to constantly assess the implementation of German economy after 1990, a transition away
each step towards the final objectives. The second from coal and significant efficiency improvements
monitoring report was recently published, and it (Figure 2a). Notably there was a continuous de-
relies on indicators that synthetize the statistical crease in coal combustion while natural gas in-
data from various energy sources that were devel- creased until the early 2000s and then decreased
oped to measure the progress and success of the to the present. These decreases have been pos-
objectives. The primary indicators include: sible primarily because of increased reliance on
yyEnergy supply: primary energy consumption by electricity generation from renewable energy re-
sources. However, because of the intermittency of
source; end-use (of ‘final’) energy consumption renewable resources such as wind and solar-pho-
by source; gross-power consumption tovoltaics, fossil power plants are still necessary
yyEnergy efficiency: primary- and end-energy pro- to provide reliable service.
ductivity of the economic system The largest emissions reductions have occured in
yyRenewable energy: share of the renewa- the industrial and buildings have been the sectors,
ble energies on the gross-end-energy- and primarily from fuel switching and efficiency gains.
gross-end-power-consumption Electricity emissions have decreased moderately,
yyPower plants: share of heat-power-systems on even as load has grown, due to the decarboniza-
the net-power production tion of generation (Figure 2b). Although energy
yyGrid: investments in networks
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 106
Germany
prices for individual households did increase, it is the same time as they are replacing old less effi-
uncertain whether this led to a behavioral change cient products (the “rebound effect”). In industry,
in energy consumption. Instead, the use of more on the contrary, economic savings are a major fac-
efficient products is most likely the primary cause tor for increasing energy efficiency and decreasing
of reduced energy use, given that consumers have consumption patterns; industry is also the largest
continued to purchase additional appliances at consumer of electricity with a share of 43.5%.
Figure 1. Decomposition of GHG and Energy CO2 Emissions in 2010
1a. GHG emissions, by source 1b. Energy-related CO2 emissions by fuel and sectors
40 MtCO2
MtCO2 eq 792 Energy-related 35
emissions 30
946 25 Electricity
72 Processes 20 (Allocation
15 by End Use Sector)
10
68 Agriculture
15 Waste Total MtCO2
Natural Gas 273
Petroleum Products 206
0 Coal 301
Electricity Generation Transportation Other
Industry Buildings
309 159 149 163 0 780
Source:
BMU(2011): “Long-term scenarios and strategies for the deployment of renewable energiesin Germany in view of European and global developments”, global report available at:
http://www.dlr.de/tt/en/Portaldata/41/Resources/dokumente/institut/system/publications/leitstudie2011_kurz_en_bf.pdf
Based on IEA(2012): IEA, « Energy balances of OECD countries- 2012 edition »
Figure 2. Decomposition of historical energy-related CO2 Emissions, 1990 to 2010
2a. Energy-related CO2 emissions drivers 2b. Energy-related CO2 emissions by sectors
20% Five-year variation rate of the drivers 1200 MtCO2
15% 1000 990
10% GDP per capita 800 878 835 810 779 Other
600 Buildings
5% Population
Transportation
0%
400
-5% Energy per GDP
Industry
-10% Energy Related
-15% 200
-20% CO2 Emissions
per Energy 0 Electricity Generation
1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1990 1995 2000 2005
Source: Based on OECD database (http://stats.oecd.org/)
107 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
Germany
2 National Pathways to Deep Decarbonization
2
2.1 Illustrative Deep to 2% in 2050) in parallel with a rapid and strong
Decarbonization Pathway diffusion of renewables and biomass satisfying
more than half of total energy needs in 2050
2.1.1 High-level characterization (Figure 3a). In parallel, a significant decrease of
final energy consumption is experienced, from
Forecasts based on demographic trends predict 9.1 EJ in 2010 to 5.2 EJ in 2050, corresponding
a notable decrease of population between 2010 to a decrease in all end-use sectors (47% in
and 2050, from 81 to 69 million. On the other residential, 33% in commercial and 40% in
hand, GDP is expected to see a significant in- transportation). These trends are accompanied
crease, as shown by a doubling of GDP per capita by a rising importance of electricity, heat, and
over this time period (Table 1). biomass in end-use energy (Figure 3b).
For the illustrative deep decarbonization path- The share of different sectors in energy consumption
way, energy-related CO2 emissions decrease to will largely stay the same until 2050, where (com-
154 MtCO2 in 2050 (2.3 tCO2/cap), which is mercial and heavy) industry, private households, and
attributed to significant change in the structure transportation are responsible for 48%, 25%, and
of energy used with a significant reduction of 27% of final energy consumption, respectively.
coal (from 25% of total primary energy in 2010
Table 1. The development indicators and energy service demand drivers in Germany
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population (Million) 81 79 77 73 69
GDP per capita (US $/capita, 2010 value) 27,309 31,949 35,026 43,110 52,217
Figure 3. Energy Pathways, by source
3a. Primary Energy
EJ - 48 % 3b. Final Energy
14.0 15.0 7.3
EJ
1.5 12.5
1.3 9.1 10.0 - 43%
7.5
10.0
3.1 2.7 5.0 5.2
0.5
7.5 3.4 2.5
2.1
4.7 5.0 Nuclear 0.4 0 3.0 Electricity and Heat
3.8 Renewables & Biomass 0.6 Biomass
3.5 2.5 1.5 Natural Gas 2010 2050 0.8 Liquids
2010 0 1.7 Oil 0.8 Gas
0.2 Coal 0.1 Coal
2050
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 108
Germany
Figure 4a shows that the decarbonization of conducted in such a manner that they give pos-
fuels and energy efficiency are two drivers of itive impulses for the economic development.
equal importance in the overall decrease of Emission reductions are particularly important
CO2 emissions, as measured by the 68% de- in electricity generation and industry; beyond
crease of the energy intensity of GDP and the technological aspects, a key aspect in industry
62% decrease of the CO2 emissions intensity is structural change through a shift away from
of energy by 2050. energy-intensive production.
The former effect is triggered by significant im-
provements in all economic activities, whereas Figure 5. Energy-related CO2 Emissions Pathway,
the latter is permitted by the combination of by Sector, 2010 to 2050
three factors: an end-use fuel switch away from
fossil energy sources (see discussion above); a 800 MtCO2 779 - 80%
decarbonization of electricity, which sees its
carbon intensity dropping to 37 gCO2/kWh 700 2
due primarily to increased reliance on renew- 163
able energy; and the rise in electrification to
displace the combustion of fossil fuels (electri- 600
fication of end-uses increases to 27% in 2050)
(Figure 4b). These two effects are sufficient to 500 172
ensure a steady decrease of emissions despite
continuous economic growth. 400
All sectors experience a deep reduction of their 158
emissions between 2010 and 2050 (Figure 5),
which is achieved without a decrease in indi- 300
vidual comfort or economic development and
200 154 Other
100 284
42 Buildings
0 55 Transportation
2010 36 Industry
21 Electricity Generation
2050
Figure 4. Energy-related CO2 Emissions Drivers, 2010 to 2050
4a. Energy-related CO2 emissions drivers 4b. The pillars of decarbonization
60% Ten-year variation rate of the drivers Pillar 1. Energy Intensity of GDP
Energy ef ciency 6.4 MJ/$
40% 2010
20% GDP per capita 2050 2.0 - 68 %
0% Population
Pillar 2. Electricity Emissions Intensity
-20% Energy per GDP Decarbonization of electricity 457 gCO2/kWh
-40% 2010
-60% - 92 %
Energy-related CO2 Emissions 2050 37
per Energy
Pillar 3.
-80% Electri cation of end-uses Share of electricity in total nal energy
2010 21 + 6 pt
2020 2030 2040 2050 2050 27 %
2010 2020 2030 2040
109 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
Germany
2.1.2 Sectoral trajectories and measures to the electricity generation mix, playing an impor-
tant role in the near-term by providing 25 percent
Power of generation in 2020.
In the power sector, the transformation envisaged Note that this is a national-scale vision, and re-
in the illustrative deep decarbonization pathway in- source availability is not uniform across the coun-
cludes the rapid phasing out of nuclear power (just try. In particular, in the south of Germany there
after 2020) and the long-term closing of almost all is insufficient wind and solar resource to support
coal-fired power stations by 2050. As there is only a the load, so upgrades to the grid will be needed
moderate decrease in electricity demand during this to support such a high level of penetration.
time period, a substantial amount of new renewable
energy is required to serve the load. A majority of Industry
the growth comes from onshore and offshore wind, As part of this decarbonization pathway, the in-
while a smaller but still substantial contribution is dustrial sector experiences the most significant
made by solar photovoltaics (Figure 6). Convention- reduction of all end-use sectors (a 77 percent re-
al power plants fueled by natural gas (at 16% of duction between 2010 and 2050). This is possible
generation in 2050) are still required to support grid due to a substantial decrease in energy demand
stability due to the intermittent nature of the wind (a 33 percent reduction between 2010 and 2050)
and solar resources. In addition, combined heat and resulting from efficiency gains and a restructuring
power systems fueled by natural gas will contribute of industrial processes towards low-energy activi-
ties. Additionally, changes in the fuel mix lead to a
Figure 6. Energy Supply Pathway for Electricity Generation, halving of the carbon intensity of industrial energy,
by Source due to a nearly complete phase-out of coal and oil
as well as a substitution of electricity for natural
453 gCO2/kWh 500 gas in activities where it is possible (Figure 7a).
400
Buildings
The buildings sector (in which private households
300 make up almost 60% of the consumption) expe-
riences a 73% decrease of carbon emissions from
200 2010 to 2050. To reach this level of decarbonization
in a sector with slow stock turnover, existing build-
700 TWh 37 100 ings will be aggressively renovated to new efficien-
cy standards and new buildings will be built with
0 ambitious low-carbon standards. Additionally, fossil
fuels are progressively replaced by low-carbon ener-
600 gy sources for heating needs, leading to a significant
decrease in the carbon intensity of building energy.
500 Other renewables
400 Biomass Transportation
Passenger transport represented 71% of total ener-
Solar gy consumption from transportation in 2010, and
this subsector experiences the most drastic drop
300 in energy needs (a reduction of 55% between 2010
Wind
200
100 Hydro
Nuclear
Natural Gas
0 Coal
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 110
Germany
and 2050) due to a transformation in personal mo- 2.2 Technical Options
bility. The personal vehicle fleet will see large effi- and Assumptions for National
ciency gains across all vehicle types, an increase in Deep Decarbonization
the use electric and hydrogen-fueled vehicles and
a partial modal shift. The increased use of electric The transformation of the energy sector in Ger-
vehicles, biofuels, and hydrogen also leads to a many is ongoing and many fundamental decisions
significant decrease in carbon intensity of fuels. have already been made in the recent years. A core
For freight transport, energy demand is expected policy decision, which helps to define the nature
to increase slightly between 2010 and 2030 be- of the decarbonization pathway, is the phasing
fore decreasing to 2010 levels by 2050. Given that out of nuclear power by 2022. As a result, bar-
GDP almost doubles over this period, this repre- ring the use of carbon capture and sequestration
sents a significant decoupling of freight transport (CCS), this decision places an emphasis on energy
and economic activity, which is possible though efficiency and a reliance on renewable resources.
improved truck efficiency and a reorganization The long-term plan to substantially develop re-
of the production and distribution processes. In newable energy resources is on track given that
addition, hydrogen-fueled trucks enter the mar- renewables were the second largest source of en-
ket and electricity-fueled trains increase in use, ergy in Germany in 2012 (at 12.4% of total final
all of which contribute to the decarbonization of energy consumption) and represent 23.6% of elec-
freight transport. tricity generation. However, the decarbonization
Also note that biofuels become important for pathway requires a significantly greater reliance
(passenger and freight) air transport, meeting on renewable resources given the expected tri-
35% of energy demand for this mode in 2050. pling of installed wind capacity (from 27 GW in
2010 to 82 GW in 2050) and the quadrupling of
Figure 7. Energy Use Pathways for Each Sector, by Fuel, 2010 – 2050 Carbon intensity
45.1 gCO2/MJ 50 gCO2/MJ 50 gCO2/MJ 60
48.0 40 50
30 67.6
40 40
23.1 30
30
4.0 EJ 20 4.0 EJ 20 4.0 EJ 36.3 20
23.0 10 3.5 10
10 0
3.5 0 3.5 0
3.0 3.0 3.0
2.5 2.5 2.5
2.0 2.0 2.0
1.5 Grid electricity 1.5 Grid electricity 1.5 Hydrogen
1.0 and heat 1.0 and heat 1.0
0.5 0.5 0.5 Grid
Solid biomass Solid biomass electricity
0 0 Liquid fuels 0
Liquid fuels Pipeline gas Biofuels
Pipeline gas Petroleum
Products
Coal Coal
2010 Pipeline gas
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
7a. Industry 7b. Buildings 7c. Transportation
111 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
Germany
solar photovoltaic capacity (from 17 GW in 2010 to be an increase in the use of public transport
to 67 GW in 2050). This in turn would require instead of cars, especially for commuters, which
substantial investments (around 3.5 billion euros requires development at the city level (notably
per year on average from 2010 to 2050) when in terms of urban infrastructure).
assuming a significant decrease in costs (44% and
71% decrease in the cost per kWh produced for 2.3 Alternative Pathways
wind and solar photovoltaic respectively). Given and Pathway Robustness
such decreased costs, there will be substantial
incentives for innovation and investment. Finally, The robustness of the pathway could be called into
biomass is expected to play a large role in the plan, question given the fairly high share of intermittent
reaching approximately 60,000 GWh per year in renewables in the electricity mix. In principle, if
2050, requiring significant investments. nuclear power plants were to continue producing
Substantial investments are also needed in the electricity beyond 2022, the proposed pathway
transmission and distribution electricity grid, in- could accept more modest deployment of wind
cluding storage facilities to complement gas-fired and solar. However, given the strong political and
power stations needed to help manage the inter- societal commitment to nuclear phase-out this is
mittency of renewables and increase the flexibility a highly unlikely. Another – more acceptable – al-
of the energy system. To achieve these objectives, ternative option would be the deployment of CCS,
it will be important that the federal government which is not included in the pathway but could
takes on a coordinating role. Additionally, in order allow for decarbonization with continued use of
to achieve the long-term objective of a nation- coal or gas-fired power plants. Other sources of
al-scale deployment of renewables, the decar- non-intermittent renewables, such as geothermal,
bonization strategy needs to invest significantly could also be investigated, but further analysis of
in new transmission lines to link the load to the the technical potentials is needed.
generation, since the highest potential for wind The robustness of the pathway may also be ques-
generation is located in the northern part of Ger- tioned by the deep changes in the energy mix in end-
many and significant load is located in the south. use sectors. This is notable in the industrial sector,
In the buildings sector, the rate for energy-related ren- where technical constraints on the processes may
ovations will need to double in order to achieve the limit the magnitude of overall energy efficiency and
objectives, from 1% annual efficiency improvements of the substitution of fossil fuel by low-carbon ener-
at its current rate to 2% per year as needed under gies at the pace supposed in the Illustrative Pathway
deep decarbonization. Although there is no common- (fossil energies drop from 62% in 2010 to 33% in
ly agreed upon definition for the specific required ren- 2050 of total end-use). CCS could be a solution
ovations, it is acknowledged that the buildings sector employed in the industrial sector, to decrease the
is one of the most important to achieve the overall magnitude of these effects without additional net
objectives and that new standards are needed. CO2 emissions.
The electrification of passenger transportation is Finally, commuters to cities can be steered away
also crucial, and current progress must be signifi- from individual car transport towards shared public
cantly expanded. The deployment of electric cars transport, reducing the need for long-range electric
depends not only upon national strategies but vehicles. Innovations are urgently needed in urban
requires international cooperation, in particular at development for novel transportation solutions.
the European level, to ensure a development of
an industry that can undergo fast diffusion in the 2.4 Additional Measures and Deeper
short-term to realize annual sales of one million Pathways
electric cars in 2020. Furthermore, there needs
The deployment of CCS in addition to the tech-
nologies proposed in the Illustrative Pathway
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 112
Germany
could further decrease emissions from the indus- when necessary. A crucial example is the Renew-
trial sector and drive CO2 emissions close to zero ables Energies Act (EEG) guaranteeing the price
by mitigating emissions from the natural gas-fired for power from renewables for the producer hence
power stations. These emissions equal 21 MtCO2, leading to a massive investment into renewables;
13% of the total, in 2050, which could therefore reforms of the EEG can be tailored to future needs
be largely abated through sequestration. in the renewables sector in particular to give room
Behavioral changes towards lower-carbon lifestyles for a new holistic design of the electricity mar-
have not been included extensively in the energy ket in the medium-term. Another example can
transformation discourse (and therefore in the Il- be found in the question of storage facilities, for
lustrative Pathway) although they can significantly which the coordinating role of the federal gov-
change overall energy consumption and provide ernment is necessary to articulate technical and
options for reducing energy needs and carbon institutional aspects. Finally, it must be noted
emissions (e.g., the use of more efficient prod- that the European policy making process should
ucts, changes in traffic behavior with switching to be integrated with the national strategy. This is
public transport or heat and electricity efficiency notably the case for industry where European
in private households). Opportunities for behav- trade certificates are expected to have signifi-
ioral changes need to be investigated, and their cant impacts.
implementation would require policy measures On the societal side, several issues need to be
to encourage change. An increased focus on be- discussed and identified as challenges. First of all,
havior would also require social science research the social consequences of the planned energy
to complement natural and engineering sciences transformation need to be taken into account,
research as technical solutions need public support without playing social policy against energy, en-
for successful implementation. vironmental, and climate policy. It is important to
consider the effects of new costs on households
2.5 Challenges and Enabling and how those costs are distributed across the
Conditions entire society.
Further challenges are the social acceptance of
On a structural level, a clear framework is urgently the planned energy transformation. Although its
needed for all involved actors. Deep decarboni- general concept and, notably, the phasing out of
zation will be implemented by multiple gener- nuclear power still receive support by the citizens,
ations, with the groundwork laid out now. Un- debate continues surrounding the best approach
ambiguous incentives and objectives need to be to developing an energy system consistent with
communicated to foster trust in the development the different objectives of the transformation. For
of sustainable energy markets. That also implies example, wind power creates problems in many
stable rules and regulations of investments that communities, with citizen initiatives forming
are not changed constantly but consistent for the against the construction of wind farms in their
medium-term. neighborhood due to aesthetic and health con-
The role of the state is important as long as energy cerns. Similarly, the development of a new elec-
prices do not reflect the true costs (economical tricity transmission system from the north to the
and ecological). The current and past system was south of Germany faces opposition as all planned
designed for centralized energy production and routes face citizen’ initiatives that seek to prevent
predisposes decision makers to believe that de- construction. Some technical options like CCS are
centralized, intermittent renewable technologies currently not considered because of a lack of so-
will not make business sense. Thus, the state has cial acceptance even though there has been no
set some specific incentives to overcome market articulation discourse on technology trade-offs.
failures, which must be pursued and adjusted
113 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
Germany
Thus, a challenge is to have citizens participate final energy intensity per unit of GDP has not
in the energy transition in an appropriate way. met expectations for the years 2008 through
The energy transformation cannot be achieved 2012, where an annual increase of 2.1% was
without including citizens – a lesson nuclear power needed but only 1.1% was achieved. Different
proponents did not learn. This calls for conducting instruments must be set in place, including
a wide public debate taking into account all tech- increasing renovation work, regulations, and
nological options and the interactions between monetary incentives.
these choices. yyIncrease of renewable energy: flexibility of the
In the end, a successful implementation of the en- energy market plays a pivotal role in the inter-
ergy transformation does also mean that it must play of different generation sources. Continued
be independent of normative worldviews and efforts in research and development and incen-
become an objective for societal development, tives for investing in these energies must be
and for this it must become more self-evident enforced.
for consumers to be part of it. For example, if yyOptimization of the electric generation system:
consumers of energy become “prosumers,” i.e. the system needs to be more flexible in order to
consumers and producers at the same time (for balance intermittent energy sources. Therefore,
example through solar photovoltaic), and if the a capacity management mechanism and energy
energy generation of prosumers is fed into the storage facilities must been developed in the
system in a transparent way, this might increase near-term to facilitate the use of intermittent
the willingness to participate. Current research resources.
investigates neighborhood storage facilities that yyIncrease of grid construction: several laws and
function like a bank, where prosumers pay in regulations have been issued to increase the
and withdraw the electricity they produce/need. speed of constructing power grids, which must
However, even ignoring the fact that behavioral be a high priority for the next decades. Two cru-
changes are often hard to implement through cial objectives are to adopt technical solutions
goodwill alone, rebound effects can counteract permitting the transport of renewable energy
good intentions. Rebound can occur in many ways, from the north to the south, and to reach pub-
for example, energy saving household goods are lic agreement, through dialogue, on the best
often used in parallel with older household goods possible routing.
which they are supposed to replace - thus increas- yyBuildings: the implementation of higher energy
ing energy consumption. These questions need to saving standards for new buildings and buildings
be addressed by social science research in order to under major renovation are necessary. To a large
change consumption styles and to foster energy degree, action plans rely on a combination of
efficient behavior. financial instruments, e.g. subsidies, and regula-
tion to foster the retrofitting of privately owned
2.6 Near-Term Priorities buildings and the implementation of high effi-
ciency standards. The implementation of several
All of the following conditions are necessary for EU relevant guidelines is part of the program
the effective transition of the energy system and to increase efficiency, and research in the field
call for short-term action: of energy efficiency is specifically subsidized.
yyEnergy efficiency: a crucial near – term priority
of the planned energy transition is an increase in
energy efficiency, which has to be accelerated a
great deal to meet the 2022 objectives. Indeed,
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 114
India
India1
1 Country profile
1
Ritu Mathur, TERI University 1.1 The National Context for Deep Decarbonization
Leena Srivastava, TERI University and Sustainable Development
Atul Kumar, TERI Development continues to remain the key consideration for India as a
Aayushi Awasthy, TERI large section of its population still lacks access to basic infrastructure
(roads, housing, education, and health care facilities) and clean and relia-
Ilika Mohan, TERI ble energy forms. A significant proportion of households continue to use
traditional fuels like firewood, dung, and crop residue for cooking, and
1 This study does not reflect the views of about 400 million people do not have adequate access to electricity2.
the Indian Government or Indian industry Further, while there has been significant progress on electrification of
villages, it does not imply that all the houses in these villages actually
2 http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ have access to electricity. Furthermore, even those that do have access
EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS often have intermittent and unreliable power supply. Significant efforts
need to be made towards providing farmers and businesses with better
connectivity to markets, providing improved education, housing, ade-
quate health care services, and social security across all segments of
society. Given that large unmet demands continue to exist, it is clear
that India faces a huge challenge of providing its people with higher
and better level of services, infrastructure, and basic energy needs, while
attempting to contain the associated environmental implications.
India achieved a GDP growth rate of around 4.9%, 6% and 7.8% during
1981-1991, 1991-2001 and 2001-2011 respectively. While the last 3-4
years have seen a downturn in the GDP growth rate, the aspiration
continues to be that of achieving a high growth rate over the next
few decades in order to increase the overall level of per capita income
and reduce poverty through inclusive growth that increases equity in
income distribution.
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 115
India India
India is listed as the world’s aggregatively third and 50 BCM respectively during the last 4-5 years,
largest emitter of greenhouse gases based current the country’s dependence on energy imports has
annual emissions, but it is also the world’s second increased. Oil imports accounted for 8% of current
largest country in terms of population and the third account deficit and approximately 30% of imports
largest economy in purchasing power parity terms. in 2010. In light of volatile and increasing fossil fuel
India has the lowest current per-capita emis- prices, and trends of rising energy import depend-
sions among G20 countries, as well as the lowest ency, concerns regarding energy security have in-
per-capita historical responsibility reckoned from creased. Continued fossil fuel use faces challenges in
1850 to 2011, among the same group. Further, terms of long-term domestic availability and energy
the GHG intensity of India’s economy is virtually security considerations, as well as associated local
at the median level among G20 countries, being and global environmental implications.
well below that of many developed economies, On the other hand, India is relatively well endowed
including the United States, Australia, and Can- with renewable energy resources. The estimated
ada. With one-third of the world’s poor in India wind potential at 80 m hub height is around
and a Human Development Index (HDI) rank of 500 GW while over 58% of the land receives global
135, India would be faced with an excruciatingly insolation of over 5 kWh/m2/day. Large hydro is es-
difficult challenge in trying to follow the Illustra- timated to have a potential of 148 GW while small
tive Deep Decarbonization Path (DDP) identified in hydro has around 15 GW potential. Biomass to
this report. However, the exploration of the purely power has a potential of around 25 GW. The exact
technical potential of doing so may help prioritize potential of other resources like geothermal, tidal,
national and international interventions that may and offshore wind is uncertain, since not many
facilitate the adoption of a mitigation trajectory. reliable studies exist at present. While renewable
In terms of the availability of energy resources, In- energy resources have a relatively large potential in
dia’s fossil fuel reserves are limited, with crude oil India, the share of renewables in total energy use
and natural gas reserves estimated at around 760 is still small, due to several factors including the
MT and around 1330 BCM respectively in 2012/13. relatively high costs compared to fossil fuel op-
Around half of the country’s oil reserves and two- tions at present, uncertainty regarding on-ground
thirds of the natural gas reserves are offshore.3 efficiencies of some of the new technologies, sto-
Moreover, much of India’s proven coal reserves chasticity of supply, suitability across regions and
(estimated at 118 BT4) are not only of low quality applications, socio-economic considerations, and
but also inaccessible due of technological, geolog- issues related to confidence in adoption of com-
ical, or economic factors.5 According to recent es- mercially less established technological options.
timates, India’s extractable reserves are estimated In planning ahead for future energy and infrastruc-
to last for only about 30 years at current rates of ture requirements, it is therefore in the country’s
production. At present India is largely dependent on interest to tap opportunities wherein it could tran-
fossil fuels, with coal accounting for around 54% of sition to a reliance on energy sources and technol-
commercial energy use. With production of coking ogies that can provide a secure and sustainable
and non-coking coal remaining around 50 MT and development path for the future. In so doing, India
500 MT respectively and domestic production of can avoid locking itself into inefficient infrastruc-
crude oil and natural gas hovering around 40 MT ture and fuel choices that are import-intensive.
3 http://petroleum.nic.in/petstat.pdf
4 http://www.coal.nic.in/welcome.html
5 Batra and Chand 2011, India’s coal reserves are vastly over stated, is anyone listening ?, TERI
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 116
India
1.2 GHG Emissions: Current Levels, tion in the industry sector, for example, increased
Drivers and Past Trends at an annual average growth rate of only about
6% per year, although industrial production grew
As indicated in Table 1 and depicted in Figure 1, at about 9% per year, as a result of several energy
energy and industrial process6 related emissions efficiency measures that have been implemented
together account for a majority of the total emis- across industry sub-sectors, as well as other shifts
sions, and the share of these has been increasing such as the pronounced increase in the use of fly
over time. Accordingly, in this study, we focus only ash instead of limestone in cement manufacturing.
on energy and industrial process-related emissions.
As illustrated in Figure 2a and Figure 2b, India’s Table 1. Distribution of GHG emissions by sector
CO2 emissions have increased in total magnitude
across all sectors, not only as a result of growth 1994 2000 2007
in economic activity and the consequent increase
in overall energy requirements, but also the grad- Agriculture 29% 23% 19%
ual move from traditional biomass fuels towards Waste 2% 4% 3%
modern commercial fuels. Electricity generation7 Energy
is the largest contributor to the total emissions Industrial process 62% 67% 71%
followed by industry and transport. However, In- 7% 6% 7%
dia’s primary energy requirement per unit of GDP
has been continuously decreasing due to efficiency Source: India: Second national communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,
improvements across sectors as well as structural pg 82, Ministry of Environment and Forest, Government of India, 2012
changes in the economy. This can also be seen
through the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, which Figure 1. Decomposition of GHG in 2007 1340 Energy-related
have been increasing, relative to 1990 but at a de- emissions
creasing rate in relation to GDP growth. Therefore, MtCO2 eq
even though the total emissions are increasing, the - 177 142 Processes
economy has continuously been decarbonizing and
becoming less energy intensive. Energy consump- 1947 373 Agriculture
LULUCF 58 Waste
(Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry) 34 Fugitive
Source: India:
Second National Communication to the UNFCCC, MOEF, 2012
Figure 2. Decomposition of historical energy-related CO2 Emissions, 1990 to 2010
2a. Energy-related CO2 emissions drivers 2b. Energy-related CO2 emissions by sectors
80% Five-year variation rate of the drivers 1400 MtCO2
1200
60% Energy-related 1000 1378 Buildings and Other
40% CO2 Emissions
20% per Energy 800 1218
600
0% GDP per capita 1025 Transportation
-20%
-40% 779 Industry
1995 2000 2005 2010 Population 400
1990 1995 2000 2005
Energy per GDP 200 Electricity Generation
0 n.c.
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
6 Post 2000, emissions from the iron and steel sector are not reported under process emissions
7 India’s emission inventory includes captive power plants within the electricity sector, while this study includes captive generation within the industry sector
117 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
India
2 National Pathways to Deep Decarbonization
2
2.1 Technological Options and ing any adverse implications for the country’s GDP
Assumptions considered in the DDP growth or income distribution across social classes.
for India Although India is likely to face several barriers re-
lated to the actual capacity to absorb and deploy
Using a set of largely common assumptions for all technologies rapidly and at large scales due to var-
15 participating project partners in the different ious limitations affecting its ability to undertake
countries, and some others, specific to the Indian upfront investments, operational and maintenance
study, the DDP results for India represent a set of costs, human and institutional capacities, and the
possible outcomes in terms of a “what-if” analysis. wherewithal for build-up of associated infrastruc-
The common assumptions relate to the time frames ture, at this stage the DDP assumes that the al-
in which specific clean energy technologies would ternative options can be scaled up quickly across
reach commercial viability, becoming competitive sectors, without including any socio-economic,
due to certain carbon prices and without consider- infrastructural or financial barriers/constraints.
Table 2. Technology assumptions for the India DDP
Sector Technology Starting date of global deployment at scale –
suggested assumptions for DDPP Country Research Partners [a]
Deployment date assumed for India DDP
Comments
Power Advanced energy storage 2030 – 2035 2035 Uptake by 2035. Solar achieves 20% of total capacity by 2050
(CSP with 15 hour storage)
Nuclear Fast Breeder [b] 2035 We assume that India would progress with its 3 phased nuclear program.
reactors Thorium-based Fast Breeder Reactors (FBR) would be available at a commercial
scale by 2035. By 2050 nuclear is 16% of total power generation capacity
Wind offshore [b] 2030 Offshore wind technology, which currently is in RD&D phase, is assumed
to be commercially available post-2030
Wind onshore and solar [b] Capacity Solar thermal with storage technology (15 hours storage) is assumed to
already be commercially available from 2035. Onshore wind technology at hub
exists height of 80 m is assumed to be deployed post 2030
Grid Technology Available Available We assume the centralized grid becomes more reliable and uninterrupted
now now power supply can be ensured such that industry could switch from captive
power plants to grid based supply. Apart from strengthening and extension
of the grid, we assume development and integration of smart grids and
management of power systems to ensure balance of power and support the
integration of renewables, at no additional cost, and without any barriers
at this stage.
Transport Global availability of 2020 – 2025 2035 Uptake from 2035 to 2040
long range EVs across all
vehicle types
Third generation biofuels 2020 – 2025 2035
Industry Solar thermal based [b] 2035 Heavy industries are able to continue reducing their energy intensity further,
boilers though at lower rates, although many of these are already at world-best levels.
Notes: [a] See Chapter 5 of the full report for more details. [b] Starting date of global deployment at scale not specified in recommendations for DDPP Country Research Partners
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 118
India
The global technology assumptions considered 2.2 Illustrative Deep Decarbonization
across the study and the specific assumptions Pathway
for India as considered in the DPP are listed
in Table 2. 2.2.1 High-level characterization
Additional assumptions that are included the
DDP analysis are provided below: In terms of socio-economic framing, the illustrative
1. Domestic natural gas production is assumed to DDP envisaged for India in this exercise respects
the need for increased energy supply to enable the
reach 50 BCM by 2035 with commercialization country to achieve rapid economic growth leading
of new discoveries. to higher per capita incomes over time. This cou-
2. Adequate infrastructure and compressed nat- pled with an increase in percentage share of indus-
ural gas (CNG) supply network is assumed to try in GDP, thus ensuring increasing employment,
be available across the country to support in- would make the growth trajectory more inclusive.
creased CNG use in the transport sector. In the past the value added from agriculture has
3. Hybrid and electric vehicles achieve significant been declining, but the proportion of people de-
penetration in servicing surface passenger de- pendent on agriculture has either stayed constant
mands post 2030, based on the assumption or has only marginally decreased. Population, tech-
that electric vehicle technology would progress nological change, and GDP are the main drivers of
such that family size cars become cheaper and growth. Population is assumed to increase at an
preferred options by 2030. annual average rate of 1%, resulting in a population
4. Heavy industries are able to continue reducing of 1751 million by 2050 (with urban population
their energy intensity further, though at lower having a share of 39% by 2050). GDP is envisaged
rates, although many of these are already at to grow at an annual average rate of about 7% with
world-best levels. the share of industry in GDP assumed to increase
5. People prefer more efficient appliances (such from 19% in 2010 to 34% by 2050.
as efficient fans, air-conditioners, and LEDs), Improved access to modern energy forms, espe-
more efficient personalized vehicles and more cially to the poorer sections of society has been
efficient transport systems (use of public buses, included by assuming 100% electrification of
metro, and non-motorized transport modes) households by 2020; however, the lowest income
enabling higher switch to these options. category households are still assumed to be able
6. Biodiesel plays a major role in the transport to fulfill only their most basic energy needs and
sector post 2030 with availability of third gen- not achieve levels of appliance ownership or elec-
eration biofuels by then. tricity consumption which India’s middle class is
7. On the demand side, we assume significant able to afford today. The DDP also envisages that
improvements in appliance efficiencies, shifts the share of traditional biomass use decreases as
towards green buildings, improvements in ef- access to modern energy forms such as LPG for
ficiencies of existing industrial processes, apart cooking increases.
from including shifts towards alternative tech- On the supply side, the illustrative DDP scenario is
nologies and processes, and assuming a signif- not a result of an optimization modeling exercise
icant switch-over to more efficient transpor- based on cost minimization, but rather a visuali-
tation modes in both freight and passenger zation of the maximum levels to which alternative
movement. These are envisaged at levels that supply options could be harnessed if these options
are significantly beyond what the existing pol- were globally available at commercially viable costs
icies and measures can achieve. and at large scales of deployment. It is assumed
119 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
India
that the share of electricity based energy increas- increase nearly 4-fold between 2010 and 2050
es across sectors, with most of this increase being as indicated in Figure 3. Figure 4a illustrates the
based on grid-connected renewables and nuclear. overall picture of the Indian economy relative to
Moreover, several options that are also of interest 2010 levels. An analysis of the DDP indicates that
from an energy security point of view in India have India’s per capita income would increase decade
been included to their maximum limits based on on decade (relative to 2010 levels), at a decreasing
expert-based judgment of the technically feasible rate. The primary energy per unit GDP is decreasing,
potentials. Similarly, efficient technological options implying reduction in energy intensity of GDP over
that could enhance India’s energy security and bring time, due to energy efficiency improvements as well
in higher environmental sustainability are also as structural changes in the economy. Growth in
pushed to their limits across the demand sectors. fossil energy based CO2 emissions per units of ener-
Although, energy efficiency is envisaged to play a gy decreases over time, indicating that final energy
major role across sectors, and this dampens sharp is becoming cleaner and dependence on fossil fuels
increases in final energy requirements across sec- is decreasing. This DDP therefore assumes that not
tors, both primary and final energy demands still only is the GDP growth achieved more efficiently
Table 3. Development Indicators and Energy Service Demand Drivers
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population [Millions] 1,201 1,370 1,523 1,651 1,751
9997 17890
GDP per capita [B$/capita] 1092 2364 5119 100% 100%
8%
Electrification rate 73% 100% 100% 26% 6%
66% 34%
Sectoral Agriculture 16% 13% 10% 60%
share in GDP
Industry 19% 20% 20%
Services 65% 68% 70%
Note: Numbers are actually for 2011-2051 but represented in this document as 2010-2050
to ensure consistency with other country chapters and analysis
Figure 3. Energy Pathways, by source
3a. Primary Energy 109.8 3b. Final Energy
EJ
120 EJ
+ 256% 80
+ 267 % 100
60
80 81.8
2.8 40 2050
60 8.1
6.1 23.0 20
0.3 29.9 40 21.3 Nuclear 1.2 21.5 Electricity
51.1 Renewables & Biomass 4.8 0 4.5 Renewables & Biomass
8.9 20 20.5 Natural Gas 27.9 Liquids
2.4 32.2 Oil 2010 5.6 Gas
6.5 25.8 Coal 22.4 Coal
11.7 0
2010 2050
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 120
India
(with lesser energy), but the energy portfolio also the country’s final energy requirements by 2050
shifts towards cleaner fuels. In absolute terms despite the aspirations of better lifestyles and
(Figure 4b) total emissions decline after 2040 based improved access to basic amenities, energy and
on the DDP envisaged in this chapter, indicating infrastructure. With the efficiency improvements
that if the country were able to make massive and envisaged in the DDP, energy intensity reduces by
rapid enough strides to bring in zero carbon fuel 78% from 27MJ per $ of GDP in 2010 to 6 MJ
options into the energy mix and undertake large per $ of GDP in 2050.
efficiency improvements across the energy chain, As indicated in Figure 4 and Figure 5, with the
emissions could peak and possibly bend downwards introduction of renewables and nuclear based
Three of the key areas that lend themselves to
significant decarbonization in case of India as in- Figure 5. Energy-related CO2 Emissions Pathway,
dicated by the DDP envisaged in this exercise are by Sector, 2010 to 2050
energy efficiency, decarbonization of the electrici-
ty sector, and fuel-switching in the transportation 4500 MtCO2 4295
sector. The DDP visualized for India results in an 4000 + 156% 2050
emission level of 1.44 tons CO2 per capita in 2010,
and 2.48 tons CO2 per capita in 2050. 3500
Energy efficiency as envisaged in the DDP plays
a key role in the Indian economy and cuts across 3000
sectors. It is important to note that the energy
demand curves in the end-use consuming sectors 2500
may not reflect a stabilization or a downturn by
2050 due to India’s development needs; how- 2000 1679 238 Buildings and Other
ever, energy efficiency is included at extremely 1500 54 292 Transportation
ambitious levels across all the sectors, playing a 1000 236 3193 Industry
crucial role in containing the rapid increase in 698 571 Electricity Generation
500
0 691
2010
Figure 4. Energy-related CO2 Emissions Drivers, 2010 to 2050 4b. The pillars of decarbonization Energy Intensity of GDP
4a. Energy-related CO2 emissions drivers Pillar 1. 27.4 MJ/$
Energy ef ciency
160% Ten-year variation rate of the drivers
2010
120%
80% 2050 6.1 - 78 %
40% GDP per capita Pillar 2. Electricity Emissions Intensity
0% Decarbonization of electricity 676 gCO2/kWh
Population 2010 - 88 %
-40% Energy per GDP
-80% 2050 84
-120%
Energy-related CO2 Emissions Pillar 3.
per Energy Electri cation of end-uses
2010 Share of electricity in total nal energy
12 + 14 pt
2020 2030 2040 2050 2050 26 %
2010 2020 2030 2040
121 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
India
generation at the assumed levels the electrici- 2.2.2 Sectoral characterization
ty generation sector makes major contributions
to the DDP. Different sectors and options vary in terms of the
In terms of electrification of the economy, the mitigation and the degree of flexibility they offer
share of electricity in total final energy increases in the short and longer terms.
from 12% to 26% during 2010-2050, on account For example, the industry sector illustrates lim-
of the shift towards centralized electricity from ited flexibility in the shorter term with emissions
captive generation (reducing captive generation increasing by around 70%, while the last ten
from 14% at present to just about 5% by 2050 years of the analysis period visualizes prospects
contingent on greater reliability as assumed for for much larger transformations of processes and
the grid) in the industry sector, significant shifts fuel switching abilities, leading to only 20% in-
towards electric motorized vehicles and electric crease in emission. Similarly, the electricity gen-
rail based movement, and significant increase in eration sector has limited degrees of freedom in
the penetration and use of electrical appliances in the next decade and therefore results in an 85%
the residential and commercial sectors. increase in emissions during this period, compared
to a 55% decline in emissions during 2040-2050
Figure 6. Energy Supply Pathway for Electricity Generation, if the levels of zero carbon options could actually
by Source be commercially available and deployed at large
scales as envisaged in the DDP. The gestation time
676 gCO2/kWh 800 associated with planning and implementing much
600 of the energy and infrastructure requirements for
400 the country’s development path is an important di-
mension that would affect the actual uptake of the
options. However, for this exercise, at this stage
we assume that the country is not limited by such
barriers and do not analyze these limits in detail.
84 200
Electricity Generation
8000 TWh 0 While India has a high technical potential for re-
newables and the government has been encour-
7000 aging generation based on renewables by offering
various incentives, costs of these technologies are
6000 Other renewables still not competitive, and in some cases technol-
ogies also need to mature and improve further
5000 Biomass to instill higher confidence and ensure uptake
Solar at larger scales. Coal based power generation re-
mains the most economical option for India, and
4000 Wind because of this the current and planned genera-
tion capacity continues to be coal based.
Hydro For the DDP we assume a significant investments
would be made in RD&D in renewable energy tech-
3000 nologies globally to create a rapid improvement in
technology. As a result we envision the scaling up
2000 Nuclear
1000 Natural Gas
0 Coal
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 122
India
of renewable based capacity more than ten-times yyWe assume that MSME units would be able to
the current levels by 2050, thus increasing the decrease their energy intensity about 1% per
share of renewable generation from 5% to 39%. year, although this is a very optimistic decline
Further, we also assume large scale deployment of and contingent on several factors like availability
fast breeder reactors (FBR) based on thorium after of finance for these enterprises, and handhold-
2030 such that the contribution of nuclear power ing them to understand the new technologies
increases from 3% to 33% from 2010 to 2050. or processes (as MSMEs are small, unorganized,
Although India continues to face large demand-sup- and disaggregated).
ply gaps as a result of which any power generated
(even if inefficiently) is important for the country, yyThe DDP also envisages that industry will reduce
in the DDP we assume fossil-based plants would the use of captive power plants from about 14%
shut down after the end of their current economic in 2010 to 5% in 2050.
life. We also assume that the country would have
a much more strengthened, integrated, and relia- Accordingly, based on the assumption that energy
ble grid that makes it possible for industry to rely intensity reductions would continue across indus-
solely on centralized electricity rather than captive try sub-sectors albeit at varying rates, industrial
power. With the changes envisaged, the carbon energy use in the DDP scenario increases at only
intensity of electricity generation falls dramatically 2% while industrial production grows at around
from 676 gCO2 per kWh in 2010 to 84 gCO2 per 9% between 2040 and 2050.
kWh in 2050 as shown in Figure 6. As Figure 7 illustrates, the carbon intensity of fuel
for the industry sector decreases and stabilizes post
Industry Sector 2030 – as much of the potential that was relatively
The DDP incorporates several assumptions specific easy to tap in terms of efficiency improvements
to the industry sector, which are detailed below: in the large sectors and units has already moved
yyAs much as 30% of the steel production in towards higher efficiencies, and because rapid and
massive scale-ups across MSMEs is difficult to en-
2040 can be produced with electricity using visage in the near-term. Further, as big industries
scrap steel. like iron and steel electrify, the decarbonization
yyShare of blended cement can increase from 76% potential gets captured in the electricity generation
in 2010 to 93% in 2050. sector as opposed to industry sector. The carbon
yyAll new cement production capacity would be intensity curve however, by no means reflects a soft
based on state-of-the-art technology. path for the country, because given the massive
yyEfficiency of the fertilizer sector is assumed to development and infrastructural growth require-
improve further by 2% although it is already near ments, industrial production needs to increase
the highest achievable efficiency levels per unit. massively as well, and cannot be compromised.
The few old and inefficient units that exist are
assumed to retire by 2030, and use of naphtha Agriculture sector
as a feedstock is also discontinued beyond 2020. The pressure to enhance agricultural productivity in
yyPaper industry moves towards the efficient RCF India emanates from the fact that net cropped area
process based on waste and 40% of the total has saturated while the country needs to provide
paper production in 2050 is from waste based higher and better quality of nutrition to a growing
process. population. Apart from the concerns of food se-
curity, about 51%8 of India’s population depends
8 National Sample Survey Organization, the 66th round
123 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
India
directly or indirectly on agriculture. Bringing in a yyAlmost all 2-wheelers could become electric
larger share of the agricultural land under irrigation by 2050.
and mechanization is therefore important while
making efforts to decarbonize the sector. yyElectric cars could comprise 50% of the total
The DDP considers the following options to de- passenger car stock in 2050.
carbonize this sector:
yyThe efficiency of the stock of tractors improves yyDecline in share of railways in both passenger
and freight movement is assumed to be arrested
significantly, coming close to the most efficient such that by 2050 railways retain a share of 17%.
tractors today.
yyInefficient power tillers get phased out by 2015 yyIncreased electrification of railways (60% of
and all new capacity is efficient. passenger movement and 80% in freight by
yyDiesel pump-sets start are phased out after 2050).
2020, and are completely phased out by 2040
being replaced by electric pump sets. Accordingly, the DDP indicates that by 2050,
the carbon intensity of passenger transport and
Transport Sector freight movement decrease by 75% and 86% of
With the envisaged growth in socio-economic in- the 2010 levels respectively. The carbon intensi-
dicators, India’s mobility needs are projected to ty of the transport sector as a whole decreases
increase 4.5 times for passenger movement, and from 68.4 to 13.0 gCO2/MJ as shown in 7b. This
13 times for freight movement between 2010 and reduction is attributable to the introduction of
2050. Past trends show a rapid increase in the use electric vehicles and biofuels after 2030, along
of personalized vehicles and a decreasing share of with continual improvement in fleet efficiencies,
rail based movement in both passenger and freight modal shifts towards rail, and electrification of
transport, as well as of public transport in cities. railways.
However, in the DDP we visualize the possibility of
being able to put in place adequate state-of-the- Residential Sector
art infrastructure, and enable a higher penetration In the residential sector we assume higher pen-
of public transportation, and rail based movement, etration of clean and efficient fuels and tech-
apart from including continuous improvements in nologies that on the one hand provide access to
vehicle efficiencies. Moreover, we also optimisti- modern forms of energy, and on the other try to
cally assume that mobility needs can be reduced contain the energy consumption levels and emis-
to a small extent by moving to compact cities that sions from usage of such fuels. In 2010, about
would be set up during the process of urbanization 12% and 65% of the rural and urban households
and development in the coming decades. respectively were using LPG, which is assumed to
Apart from more efficient transportation modes, increase to 35% and 88% of the rural and urban
several fuel switching options are also included households respectively by 2050. While a sig-
in the DDP. These include: nificant population is still envisaged to continue
yySubstitution from petroleum products towards using traditional fuels, the DDP envisages that
they would be able to transition towards efficient
CNG, electricity and biofuels. cookstoves by 2050. Many lower income house-
yyIncrease in the blend of biodiesel through up- holds that are electrified begin using a variety of
electrical appliances, but not all of the population
take of third generation biofuels.9 is expected to be able to afford all types of ap-
pliances and move to the most efficient options.
9 Assuming a land availability of 30,000 km2 for algal based biofuels
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 124
India
The DDP includes the following: Commercial Sector
yyIncreased penetration of efficient (labeled) ap- Growth in energy requirements in the commercial
sector is inevitable as the country develops, and
pliances for all income classes. there is growth in the hospitality sector, commer-
yy100% penetration of efficient appliances, 50% cial buildings, shops, public services like lighting,
sewage, etc. Growth in the commercial sector
penetration of clean cook stoves, and 90% is also of importance at the structural level as
penetration of LED lighting in both rural and
urban areas.
Figure 7. Energy Use Pathways for Each Sector, by Fuel, 2010 – 2050
Carbon intensity
gCO2/MJ 100 gCO2/MJ 80
80
60
74.5 84.0 60
40 68.4 40
40 EJ 20 20
35 0
30 0
25 Non-grid electricity 13.0
20 Grid electricity
15 Liquid fuels 25 EJ Grid electricity
10 Pipeline gas 20
5 15 Biofuels
0 Coal 10
Petroleum products
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 5 2020 2030 2040 Pipeline gas
7a. Industry 0 7b. Transportation 2050
2010
gCO2/MJ 20 gCO2/MJ 20
4.9 10 10
18.0 14.8 0
0
15 EJ
15 EJ 8.4
10 Non-grid electricity
10 Non-grid electricity Grid electricity
5 Grid electricity 5 Solid biomass
Solid biomass Liquid fuels
0 Liquid fuels 0 Pipeline gas
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Coal
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Pipeline gas
7d. Buildings: Commercial
7c. Buildings: Residential
125 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
India
growth in services helps strengthen the econo- ers, socio-economic preference structures, and
my, and is generally associated with lower energy affordability considerations, etc.
intensity than the manufacturing sector. It is however important to note that progress
The DDP includes the following: along any of the envisaged trajectories would be
yyA 5% reduction in the energy performance index contingent on several factors including the costs,
timing, and scale at which alternative options ma-
every five years for air conditioned buildings. ture and get deployed at large scales globally.
yyPenetration of energy efficient, green rating for Accordingly, while envisaging alternative DDPs
can be meaningful to visualize the choices and
Integrated Habitat Assessment (GRIHA) certi- their broad implications, these cannot be seen
fied buildings in new built area increases sharply as robust pathways that countries can be pres-
from 2010 levels of 1% to 50% penetration in surize into following, especially if there are pos-
2050. sible conflicts with development priorities, GDP
yyAdditionally, penetration of efficient appliances growth, and capacities or capabilities of individual
such as air conditioners, lighting systems, etc. countries.
increases rapidly in the commercial sector.
The emissions intensity of the sector as a result 2.4 Challenges and Enabling
of these assumptions in the DDP falls from 18.0 Conditions
to 14.8 gCO2/MJ.
India’s challenges in making a transition towards
2.3 Alternative Pathways and the DDP envisaged are several and significant.
Additional Measures 1. The first and foremost consideration for India
In this phase of this exercise we have delineated is that the country’s development should not
the implications of one particular deep decarbon- be compromised and people should be better
ization pathway. However, alternative pathways off in terms of per capita incomes, employment
could internalize other technological options were opportunities, access to basic services and in-
these to be economically attractive and desirable frastructure. Since India’s basic development
for deployment in the time period under considera- needs themselves require significant invest-
tion. Further, alternative socio-economic trajectories ment, accelerated development is envisaged
could also be envisaged. A faster growth path with to need even faster growth and significantly
inclusive development and transformational infra- larger levels of investment.
structural growth in a shorter time period provid- 2. Even though the DDP scenario for India assumes
ing society with improved living standards, better declining global costs for technologies, there
quality and levels of housing, education, healthcare, would be massive infrastructural related costs
and public transportation, could, for example, si- to enable to technologies to be absorbed. It is
multaneously envisage higher capabilities to absorb therefore important to ensure adequate flow of
new technologies and processes, and adopt more finance to developing countries to support up-
innovative options for mitigation as well. take of higher cost alternatives in the near term.
However, given that this stage of this study in- 3. The challenge with regard to technologies
volved a purely technical analysis, it is important is multi-faceted. Several technologies exist
to revisit the timings and levels of introduction globally but are not economically competitive
of various alternative options based on an explicit yet and/or are associated with uncertainties
assessment of the economic costs and their im- surrounding their actual performance and ef-
plications for GDP growth, infrastructural barri-
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 126
India
ficiencies on the ground. Moreover, some tech- 5. Capacity related challenges are also significant
nologies assumed in India’s DDP are still in the for India. The diversity in economic profiles and
R&D phase (e.g. 3rd generation biofuels) and industrial units makes it important to identi-
not implemented at commercial scales. There fy alternative options for all user groups. For
are likely to be challenges in scaling up new example, India has several MSMEs that use a
options such as solar thermal technology where wide mix of fuels and processes and for which
the issue of intermittency related with renew- standardized technologies used in larger scale
ables needs to be addressed. With the levels manufacturing units may not be applicable or
of future electricity transmission requirements viable. The MSME sector plays an important
and a greater share of power being generated role in the economy as it contributes 8% of
by renewables, there is a strong need to not GDP and employs close to 70 million people.10
only develop adequate transmission and distri- There are about 40 million MSMEs units op-
bution capacity in the grid, but also to further erating on a small scale, accounting for be-
manage and strengthen the grid to be able to tween 30% and 40% of the industry energy
handle the additional loads. Moving towards consumption. Accordingly, the challenge is to
smart grids that can handle renewables based improve the efficiencies in these units without
generation, and balance the loads in the sys- threatening their competitiveness. Identifying
tem is also necessary. Further, there is need the best technological solutions for the diverse
for in-depth mapping of resource potentials, user groups and hand-holding smaller enterpris-
and assessment of the actual usable potentials es to make the transition towards efficient and
based on availability of land, water, etc. for clean operations through awareness programs,
energy generation and supply. developing adequate skill sets, helping small
4. It will be a great challenge to diffuse ex- units to undertake higher upfront investments
isting clean and efficient technologies at large (through grants/soft loans and other interna-
scales to bring down their costs rapidly and tional mechanisms), and demonstrating a suite
demonstrate their performance efficiencies to of possible transition options across industrial
build investor/user confidence in all regions and clusters would be required. Similarly, given that
countries. There needs to be a global collabo- clean energy access and affordability is key in
rative R&D effort on technology, with sharing India’s DDP, options that can be envisaged to
of benefits across all countries, including by work among the relatively better-off urban user
way of sharing of intellectual property rights groups may not be a possibility among the low-
and/or other means of concessional technology est income classes. While we must recognize
transfer, not only for technologies that are not that removing poverty and enabling greater
yet in the commercial domain (e.g. third gen- equity in incomes is one of the greatest ena-
eration biofuels), but also for technologies that blers to making clean energy transitions, other
are already implemented to further enhance than attempting to work towards a rapid, high,
confidence in their application and efficiencies, and inclusive economic growth path for the
and reduce their costs. Much greater interna- country, there is a need to simultaneously push
tional and regional co-operation is required clean technology solutions in the interim to the
towards this end. poor sections of society as well. For example,
10 Annual report of the Ministry of MSME, http://msme.gov.in/WriteReadData/DocumentFile/
ANNUALREPORT-MSME-2012-13P.pdf
127 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
India
in case of cooking, efficient and improved bio- to demand centers could create efficiencies in
mass cook stoves should be promoted for rural freight transportation.
households that have access to biomass and are Energy saving opportunities exist in the indus-
unable to afford modern energy fuels. Another try sector and could be tapped by establishing
important aspect in terms of capacity devel- and further strengthening the existing ener-
opment relates to the gearing up of education gy performance standards for various equip-
and training programs towards development ment/appliances like pumps, compressors, fans,
of skill sets and knowledge base that would be air-conditioning, etc.
required for future technologies and systems Given that fossil based power generation would
likely to be part of a DDP. need to continue to play a significant role at
6. Further, issues of resource scarcity and least in the next two decades, establishing the
prioritization of competing uses is important. commercial viability of ultra-super critical boilers
For example, while India seems to have abun- under Indian conditions and focusing on advanced
dant renewable resources, issues with regard to gas based generation technologies can help con-
availability of land for energy generation pur- tribute towards improving the efficiency of the
poses as compared to other competing uses electricity generation sector.
are a potential challenge. Rational energy pricing that promotes competi-
tion and reduces distortions such that consumers
2.5 Near-Term Priorities are provided the correct price signals for making
efficient energy choices needs to be adopted.
In the short term, energy efficiency can play a key This can be achieved by designing effective and
role in India. Several “win-win” options exist, that transparent subsidies, delivered at end of supply
could be tapped immediately. chain to facilitate energy access by the genuinely
In residential and commercial buildings, there ex- needy, while ensuring efficient use of resources.
ists significant scope to reduce energy use, in case Finally, while this study assumes that alternative
of both existing as well as new construction. CFLs technologies would mature and be deployed at
(compact fluorescent lamps) and LED (light-emit- economically attractive costs globally so as to
ting diodes) based lighting can bring in significant- be able to make significant future inroads into
ly higher efficiency levels than conventional light the country’s energy mix, much higher levels of
bulbs. Similarly, energy-efficient appliances (such investment are required even in the immediate
as refrigerators and air conditioners) have a large short term, focused on R&D and deployment at
potential to save energy. Updating of appliance the global level, if rapid and large scale progress
energy norms and building energy codes, energy on these technological fronts is desired.
labelling, and rationalising energy pricing could
help encourage a move towards higher levels of
efficiency in these sectors.
Enhanced and improved public transportation in
both large and medium cities and towns could
contribute significantly to increased energy ef-
ficiencies in passenger movement. Similarly,
diverting a larger share of freight movement to
rail from road by developing dedicated freight
corridors and improving rail based connectivity
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 128
Indonesia
Indonesia
Ucok W.R. Siagian, 1 Country profile
Center for Research on Energy Policy- 1
Bandung Institute of Technology 1.1 The national context for deep
(CREP-ITB) decarbonization and sustainable development
Retno Gumilang Dewi, Indonesia is the largest archipelago in the world. Located
Center for Research on Energy Policy- between the Pacific and the Indian Oceans, it bridges two
continents: Asia and Oceania. It consists of approximately
Bandung Institute of Technology 17,000 islands with a population of 234 million. The major-
(CREP-ITB) ity (almost 80%) of Indonesians live in the Western part of
Indonesia on the islands of Jawa and Sumatera (see Figure 1).
Iwan Hendrawan, Fossil fuels have historically been the major source of energy in
Center for Research on Energy Policy- Indonesia. Out of the 189 Mtoe of primary energy supply in 2011,
oil accounts for almost half at 46.3%. The remainder is provid-
Bandung Institute of Technology ed by coal (26.1%), natural gas (20.4%), commercial biomass
(CREP-ITB) (3.4%), hydro (2.4%), and geothermal (1.3%). In addition to this
commercial energy, traditional biomass is still used for cooking in
Rizaldi Boer, rural areas. The major energy consumers in Indonesia are industry
Centre for Climate Risk and (46.1%) and transport (35.6%). The remaining 18.3% is shared by
Opportunity Management-Bogor residential (11%), commercial (4.2%), and agriculture, mining and
Agriculture University (CCROM-IPB) construction (3.2%). The majority of final energy consumption is
in the form of fuels (oil, coal, gas, and biomass comprise 88%),
Gito Emannuel Gintings, and the remaining 12% of final energy is provided as electricity.
Centre for Climate Risk and Indonesia’s electrification rate (the percent of the population with
Opportunity Management-Bogor access to electricity) is around 78%, with a low per capita annual
Agriculture University (CCROM-IPB) consumption of 660 kWh/capita. Given that the country is an
archipelago with many islands and remote rural communities, a
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 129
Indonesia Indonesia
Figure 1. Map of Indonesia with basic statistics 1.9 milliom km2 land area economy in the future. Despite continuous eco-
7.9 million km2 maritime area nomic growth, many Indonesians are still poor,
Kalimantan Sulawesi 54,700 km coast line with approximately 11% of the population living
5.8% 7.1% 33 provinces below the poverty line. In the next three decades,
497 cities/regencies the Indonesian population is expected to grow at
approximately 1% each year, and employment for
this additional population is critical. To lift the
population out of poverty, the government plans
to promote economic growth that averages at
Jakarta least 5% per year and has set a goal of reducing
the poverty rate to below 4% by 2025.
Maluku Historically, energy has not been used efficiently
in Indonesia because prices were kept artificially
21% 58% 1.6% 3.8% 1.5% Major cities low through government subsidies. These subsi-
Sumatera Jawa Bali Nusa Tenggara Papua Percent of population % dies have helped fuel an increase in energy use;
average annual growth of energy consumption
large number of Indonesians do not have access to has been larger than average annual GDP growth.
electricity. Fossil fuels are the dominant source of Through efficiency measures, the government
energy for electricity generation; coal, natural gas, hopes to reverse this trend by 2025. It is also
and oil respectively represent 42%, 32%, and 12% expected that remote, rural communities will be
of the generation mix. The remaining 13% is pro- electrified using local renewable resources such
vided by hydropower (8%) and geothermal (5%). as microhydro power and solar photovoltaic (PV)
Indonesia developed with this dependency on fossil technology. The government has set a goal that
fuels in part because of the country’s energy resource all households will have access to electricity by
endowment, which includes 120 billion tons of coal, 2025, and plans for energy efficiency and the in-
8 billion barrels of oil, and 150 Trillion Standard Cu- creased use of renewable energy resources have
bic Feet (TSCF) of natural gas. In addition to fossil put Indonesia on a deep decarbonization pathway.
energy, Indonesia is also endowed with renewable
energy resources, including 75 GW of hydro,1 29 GW 1.2 GHG emissions: current levels,
of geothermal, 50 GW of biomass, and solar energy drivers, and past trends
potential of 4.5 kWh/m2/day.
Indonesia is a developing nation with a GDP of According to the Indonesian Second Nation-
847 billion US$ (2012). The per capita GDP in al Communication (which reports the latest
2012 was 3,592 US$. Over the past 5 years, the official figures concerning the country’s emis-
country’s annual economic growth fluctuated be- sions), Indonesian GHG emissions were around
tween 4.3% and 5.9%. The Indonesian economy 1,800 MtCO2e in 2005 (see Figure 1). This rep-
has shifted from one that was highly dependent resents an increase of 400 MtCO2e compared to
on agriculture to one that is more industry and 2000. Most emissions (63%) come from land use
service-based. In 2012, the composition of the change and peat fire, and combustion of fossil
economy was: 47% industry, 38% service, and
15% agriculture. It is expected that the Indonesian
economy will move further toward a service-based
1 This is a resource potential, based on preliminary resource surveys. Assuming this could be converted into technical
potentials and with capacity factor of 40%, then this resource will generate 263 TWh per year. As comparison, in
2010 the generation of hydropower was 16 TWh. Many of the hydro resources are located in Eastern Indonesia, far
from electric demand center in the West. Transmission from East to West requires construction of undersea cables.
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 130
Indonesia
fuels contributes around 19% of the emissions. power generation come from the building (60%)
In the fuel combustion category, coal is the major and industry (40%) sectors.
emission source (see Figure 2). The second major As shown in Figure 3, the main driver of GHG
source is oil combustion. Coal is the main fuel in emissions over the past decade has been eco-
power generation as well as a major energy source nomic activity, which increased at a rate of 5%
for industrial activities. Oil is used in the transport to 6% per year. Increasing energy use per unit of
and building sectors. In the end-use sector, one- GDP also contributed to the increase in emissions,
half of the direct combustion emissions are from showing that the economy simultaneously grew
fuel burning in industrial activities. Emissions from more energy-intensive.
Figure 2. Decomposition of GHG and Energy CO2 Emissions in 2005
2a. GHG emissions, by source 2b. Energy-related CO2 emissions by fuel and sectors
MtCO2 eq 344 Energy-related 200 MtCO2
emissions 175
49 Processes 150 Electricity
1792 80 Agriculture 125 (Allocation
167 Waste by End Use Sector)
100
26 Fugitive 75 Total MtCO2
451 Peat Fire
50 Natural Gas 54
675 25 Petroleum Products 180
LULUCF 0 Coal 108
(Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry) Electricity Generation Transportation Other
Industry Buildings
Source: Second National Communication Indonesia 129 107 80 26 342
Figure 3. Decomposition of historical energy-related CO2 Emissions, 1990 to 2010
3a. Energy-related CO2 emissions drivers 3b. Energy-related CO2 emissions by sectors
100% Five-year variation rate of the drivers 500 MtCO2
400
75% Energy Related 300 428 Buildings
50% CO2 Emissions 200 370 Transportation
25% per Energy 100 281 Industry
0% n.c. GDP per capita Electricity Generation
-25% Population
-50% Energy
per GDP
-75%
-100% 0 n.c. n.c.
1995 2000 2005 2010
1990 1995 2000 2005 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
131 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
Indonesia
2 National deep decarbonization pathways
2
2.1 Illustrative deep decrease use of coal, increase the share of natu-
decarbonization pathway ral gas, significantly reduce oil consumption, and
significantly increase share of electricity.
2.1.1 High-level characterization The drastic change of the primary as well as the
final energy mix is the result of many measures. As
As a developing nation, the Indonesian economy shown in Figure 5, the illustrative Indonesian de-
and population are projected to grow significantly carbonization pathway is a combination of energy
in the next four decades. The projections for these efficiency, low- and zero-carbon emitting tech-
energy service demand drivers and other relevant nologies, and structural changes in the economy.
development indicators are shown in Table 1. The key elements of the pathway are as follows:
To achieve significant decarbonization, Indonesia yyEnergy efficiency improvements would be de-
has to drastically change its energy supply and
demand mix (see Figure 4). The following are the ployed in all sectors.
important features of decarbonization in primary yyThe deployment of lower-carbon emitting ener-
energy: reduce oil consumption, reduce coal share
and equip most of the remaining coal plants with gy sources would be realized in part through fuel
CCS, increase the share of natural gas and equip a switching from coal to gas, oil to gas, and a switch
significant fraction of gas plants with CCS, signifi- from onsite fuel combustion to use of electricity.
cantly increase the share of renewables, and begin The remaining large energy systems that burn fos-
to use nuclear power. The important features of sil fuels would be equipped with CCS technology.
decarbonization in final energy are: significantly yyFurther fuel switching to renewable resources
is a critical component of the scenario in all
Table 1. Development Indicators and Energy Service Demand Drivers
Population [Millions] 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GDP per capita [$/capita] 234 252 271 289 307
Access to Electricity
Poverty indicator 2,306 3,655 5,823 9,319 14,974
70% 85% 99% 99% 99%
12% 2%
8% 3% 3%
Figure 4. Energy Pathways, by source
4a. Primary EJ 14.09 4b. Final Energy
Energy 14 0.40
12 + 131 % EJ 10.97
+ 138 % 10 3.76 10 3.85
8 Nuclear
5.92 6 2.02 Renewables & Biomass 8
0.23 4 Natural Gas w CCS
1.39 2 3.51 Natural Gas 6 0.74 Electricity
2.72 Oil 4.75 2.68 Biomass
1.59 0 1.58 Coal w CCS 0.57 4 Liquids
2.13 Coal 0.09 Gas
2010 0.69 2.52 2 3.21 Coal
2050 0.86 0 0.49
0.71 2010 2050
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 132
Indonesia
sectors: solar, hydro, and geothermal for power in emissions can be accomplished through six strat-
generation, biofuels in transport, and biomass, egies: (i) the acceleration of establishment of a
biofuels, and biogas in industry. forest management unit (FMU) in all forest areas to
yyStructural changes in the economy (i.e. de- ensure the improvement of forest management, (ii)
creased role of industry in the formation of the introduction of mandatory forest certification
national GDP through service sector substitu- systems to reduce illegal logging and increase the
tion) are expected to contribute to the decar- application of sustainable management practices,
bonization of the energy sector. (iii) a reduced dependency on natural forests in
By implementing these strategies, the energy-relat- meeting wood demands by increasing the use of
ed Indonesian CO2 emissions will change in a sus- low-carbon stock lands or degraded lands for the
tainable manner by realizing deep decarbonization development of timber plantation and enhance-
by 2050. As shown in Figure 6, industry and power ment of carbon sequestration by increasing forest
generation remain the major sources of emissions in regeneration and land rehabilitation, (iv) the reduc-
2050. Significant decarbonization will occur in the tion of forest conversion in meeting land demand
power sector, from 130 MtCO2 in 2010 to 68 MtCO2
in 2050. Despite decarbonization efforts, emissions Figure 6. Energy-related CO2 Emissions Pathway,
from industrial sector will continue to increase, from by Sector, 2010 to 2050
155 MtCO2 in 2010 to 221 MtCO2 in 2050.
As shown in Figure 2, land use change and forest- 500 MtCO2 428 -9%
ry are the main sources of GHG emissions, and 23 391
they will continue to be so without new strate- 400 28
gies in these areas. Therefore these sources have 74
been targeted for reduction as part of the national 300 120
emissions reduction commitment. The emissions 221
from this sector mainly come from deforestation, 200 Other
forest degradation, and peat emissions. A decrease 100 155 68 Buildings
2050 Transportation
250 Industry
0 130 Electricity Generation
2010
Figure 5. Energy-related CO2 Emissions Drivers, 2010 to 2050 5b. The pillars of decarbonization
5a. Energy-related CO2 emissions drivers
100% Ten-year variation rate of the drivers Pillar 1. Energy Intensity of GDP
Energy ef ciency 8.8 MJ/$
80% 2010
60%
40% 2050 2.4 - 73 %
20% GDP per capita Pillar 2. Electricity Emissions Intensity
0% Population Decarbonization of electricity 825 gCO2/kWh
Energy per GDP 2010
-20% - 92 %
-40% Energy-related CO2 Emissions 2050 63
-60% per Energy
-80% Pillar 3.
Electri cation of end-uses Share of electricity in total nal energy
-100% + 23 pt
2010 12
2020 2030 2040 2050 2050 35 %
2010 2020 2030 2040
133 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report
Indonesia
for agriculture by increasing the productivity of the and gas together account for 93% of the energy
existing agricultural land and planting intensity as supply, and the remaining 7% comes from re-
well as optimizing the cultivation of unproductive newable energy resources (biomass, hydropower,
lands, (v) a restriction on the use of peat land for and geothermal). The end users of the energy are
agricultural development and the implementation the industrial sector (50%), transport (34%), and
of low-emission technologies in peat land, and building (16%). The breakdown of types of energy
(vi) the issuance of financing/incentive policies and on the end user side is as follows: liquids (54%),
the development of a financing system to support gas (18%), coal (15%), and electricity (11%). To
the implementation of the first five strategies. achieve decarbonization, a major transformation
The implementation of the above strategies could will take place in the energy system, including the
significantly reduce GHG emissions in these sectors electrification of transport and industry and de-
from about 3.42tCO2e/capita (about 800 MtCO2e) ployment of renewables and application of CCS.
in 2010 to about -1.08tCO2e/cap (about -330 MT- Another important element of the decarbon-
CO2e) in 2050. These sources could become a net- ization pathway is a significant increase in the
sink of CO2 emissions by 2030 at a rate of about share of biofuels in transportation, industry, and
-0.29tCO2e/cap (about 80 MtCO2e).2 power generation. To ensure sustainability, the
feedstock of biofuels would be planted in unused
2.1.2 Sectoral characterization land (without disturbing forest stock), and as time
progresses and new technology is developed, the
As mentioned above, Indonesia’s primary energy feedstock will come from waste biomass.
mix is currently dominated by fossil fuels. Oil, coal
Figure 7. Energy Supply Pathways, by Resource
825 gCO2/kWh 800
600 Carbon intensity
400
63 200 71.0 gCO2/MJ 80
0
1200 TWh 60
40
1000 Other renewables 3.5 EJ 44.0 20
800 Biomass
600 Solar 3.0 0
400 Wind
200 Hydro 2.5
0 Nuclear
2010 2.0 Biofuel
Natural Gas w CCS
Natural Gas 1.5
Oil
Coal with CCS 1.0 Oil
Coal
0.5
2050
0
2020 2030 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
7a.Electricity
7b. Liquid Fuels
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2014 report 134
The words you are searching are inside this book. To get more targeted content, please make full-text search by clicking here.
Ciencia del cambio climático
Discover the best professional documents and content resources in AnyFlip Document Base.
Search