2022 Year End Market Update Report 2023 Market Forecast
Quick Facts Kootenai County median household income $68,000 Married couple $86,000 19% of Kootenai Co population is 65 years or older (US is 16%) 8.2% of our population moved from another state in 2021 74% Homeownership rate (US is 69%) Kootenai County Population 180,000 (2021) Ponderay is Idaho's 5 th fastest growing city Rathdrum is Idaho's 7 th fastest growing city (10,223) Post Falls is Idaho's 8 th fastest growing city (42,610) Shoshone County 13,000 Bonner County 47,000 Boundary County 12,000 Benewah County 9,500
Homeowner Equity Growth Still Surging
Homeowner Equity Growth Still Surging “At 43.6%, the average U.S. loan-to-value (LTV) is still significantly lower than the 71.3% LTV seen moving into the Great Recession in the first quarter of 2010. Therefore, today’s homeowners are in a much better position to weather the current housing slowdown and a potential recession than they were 12 years ago.
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2022 Average Sales Price All MLS $530,000 $798,000 $1,990,000 $610,245 $880,000 $1,904,000 Res <2 Ac Res >2 Ac Res H2O *Data provided by Coeur d’Alene MLS +15% +10% -5% Compares 2021 to 2022
2022 Average Sales Price All MLS 290,000 426,000 593,000 331,000 585,000 736,000 Vacant Land Condo Multi-Family *Data provided by Coeur D’Alene MLS +14% +37% +24% Compares 2021 to 2022
% Increase in Median Sold Values Kootenai County all Residential 290,000 320,000 375,000 501,000 575,000 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 10% 17% 34% 15%
Median Sales Price Increase by County All Residential 22.4% 15.3% 14.8% 14.4% Benewah Shoshone Kootenai Boundary $575,000 $282,000 $347,000 $440,000
New Construction
New Construction New Construction as a % of Market share Rathdrum / Twin Lakes 27.5% Post Falls 27.5% NW Kootenai Co 17% Kootenai County 19% Bonner County 7% Boundary 3%
New Construction New Construction Supply Costs Lumber/Plywood -27% Flat glass +8% Insulation materials +16% Concrete +13% Builders still noted 17 of the 25 main building products needed are experiencing shortages still. Appliances, windows and doors, and Transformers being at the top. HVAC Eq. & Cement have increased shortages over this time last year even.
*Data Supplied by CRR 1,122 SG Permits issued in 2022 564 Residential Remodel/Addition $713 Million in value
2022 New Construction vs. Re-sale Residential Single Family All MLS (lots and Acreage) 3208 Re-Sale Units 807 New Construction Units New Construction was 20% of Single Family Sales in 2022 1% higher than last year. Single Family homes all MLS (on Lots and Acres) Avg. Sales Price $699,000 +30% Avg. Sales Price $647,000 +9% *Data provided by Coeur d’Alene MLS
Forecasting into 2023
Yun said… “After a big boom over the past two years, there will essentially be no change nationally” in home prices in 2023 Dave Stevens, former Assistant Secretary of Housing said… "So be advised, this may be the one and only window for the next few years to get into a buyers’ market. And remember, as Federal Reserve data shows, home prices only go up and always recover from recessions no matter how mild or severe. Long-term homeowners should view this market right now as a unique buying opportunity.” Buy Now? Sell Now?
The one thing that is true right now about forecast for home prices is none of the experts agree. They go anywhere from depreciation of 5% to appreciation of 5%. We don’t see any of these reputable forecasters calling for a free fall in prices in the housing market.
Top Take-Aways Today, Residential median sold values are about level with where they were in Oct of ‘21, 15 months ago. Single family is still about 4% higher. Months of Inventory has increased to about 4% Average Days on Market are also increasing, currently around 100 If 2023 continues to see a slow down in price appreciation, and interest rates stay stable, we should see a nice surge in activity come spring and summer. Be prepared! DON’T FORGET ….. your sphere is your biggest asset.
#WeAreWindermere
Mike’s Local Real Estate Forecast for 2023 • Let’s talk about mortgage rates first. Look for mortgage rates to continue to slowly go slowly down as the year 2023 progresses. • The inventory of homes for sale in our local Coeur d’Alene area will continue to rise modestly, but we will still have lower than normal inventory. • Home prices have already come down about 13% since mid summer of 2022 in our local market. This trend has already started to moderate and I look for local home prices to bottom out this summer. • Some Sellers will be more anxious to sell and negotiate with the Buyers. • Buyers will have more homes to look at, less urgency to get their offer in, and more room to negotiate. Buyers will also be able to refinance going forward when the interest rates come back down. Wishing all of you a great 2023. Don’t hesitate to contact me with any questions at cell 208-660-6320 or [email protected]