Market Update May 2020
Major financial institutions are
calling for a 2nd half recovery
2020 GDP
0%
--44..88*%*
*Q1 GDP Advance Goldman Sachs
Estimate BEA.gov JP Morgan
Morgan Stanley
Quarter 1 Wells Fargo
Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
“Although the uncertainty of the crisis
means forecasts of economic activity are
more unclear than usual, we expect that
most of the economic damage from the
virus will be contained to the first half of
the year. Going forward, we should see a
recovery starting in the 2nd half of 2020.”
Sam Khater
Chief Economist at Freddie Mac
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Weekly Unemployment Filings
in millions
6.9 6.6
5.2
3.3 4.4 3.8 3.2
March 21 March 28 April 4 April 11 April 18 April 25 May 2
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Impact of COVID-19 to Real Estate Showings in North America
1/12 1/19 1/26 2/2 2/9 2/16 2/23 3/1 3/8 3/15 3/22 3/29 4/5 4/12 4/19 4/26 5/3 5/7
Weekly showings normalized to the first calendar
week of January, 7-day moving average.
ShowingTime
of all homes in
58.7% America have at
least 60% equity
Americans are sitting on tremendous equity
42.1% $177,000
of all homes are owned the average equity of the
‘free and clear’ mortgaged homes
John Burns Consulting CoreLogic
Mortgage Rate Projections
Quarter Freddie Fannie MBA NAR Average
Mac Mae of All Four
2020 2Q 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.47%
2020 3Q 3.2 3.1 3.6 3.8 3.42%
2020 4Q 3.2 3.0 3.5 3.9 3.40%
2021 1Q 3.1 3.0 3.5 4.0 3.40%
Residential Snap Shot
January 1st , 2020- April 30th , 2020 Residential
Area 01 CdA Area Snap Shot 02 Post Falls Area 03 Hayden
Active Listings November 1st, 2018 – January 31, 2019 303
Homes Sold/Closed YTD 649 Active Listings 652 Active Listings 139
Avg Days on Market
Median Sales Price 336 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 382 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 99
Avg Sales Price $359,000
SP/OLP 89 Avg Days on Market 107 Avg Days on Market $394,000
$340,000 Median Sales Price $315,000 Median Sales Price 98%
$372,000 Avg Sales Price $336,000 Avg Sales Price
98% SP/OLP 99% SP/OLP
Area 04 Rathdrum/Twin Lakes Area 04a Hauser Lake Area 05 Athol/Spirit Lake NW Kootenai Co
Active Listings 353 Active Listings 23 Active Listings 42
Homes Sold/Closed YTD 153 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 9 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 45
Avg Days on Market 122 Avg Days on Market 84 Avg Days on Market 77
Median Sales Price $305,000 Median Sales Price $502,000 Median Sales Price $355,000
Avg Sales Price $356,000 Avg Sales Price $464,000 Avg Sales Price $348,000
SP/OLP 98% SP/OLP 96% SP/OLP 99%
Area Athol/Bayview 06 NE Kootenai Co Area 12 Silver Valley Area All Kootenai Co
Active Listings 85 Active Listings 199 Active Listings 2441
Homes Sold/Closed YTD 30 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 87 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 1149
Avg Days on Market 119 Avg Days on Market 98 Avg Days on Market
Median Sales Price $358,000 Median Sales Price Median Sales Price 103
Avg Sales Price $358,000 Avg Sales Price $153,000 Avg Sales Price $329,000
SP/OLP 95% SP/OLP $176,000 SP/OLP $377,000
94% 98%
*Data provided by Cda MLS
Months of Inventory Analysis
Kootenai Site Built < 2 Acres
February 1st, 2020 through April 30th , 2020
200
186
180
160
148
140
126
120
100 46 37 86 72 63 43 27 15 12 14 855 582 6
1 2 2 55 34 17 9 8 8 00
80 15 5 5
1 3 4 2 5
60
40
20
6
11
0
Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory Analysis
Kootenai Site Built > 2 Acres
February 1st, 2020 through April 30th , 2020
20
18
18
16 15 14
13 13
14
11 12 12 12
12
10
10 9
8 8 8 8
6 5
6
5
4
3 3 3 4 3 3 5 4 4
11 11 11 3 0 1
22 2 2 3
2 2 2
0 2
Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory
Residential Sales Comparison Year over Year
All MLS
722
691
585
590
617
439 586
461 448 509
396
462
319 310
311
324
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2015 Sold 2016 Sold 2017 Sold 2018 Sold 2019 Sold 2020 Sold
*Data provided by CDA MLS
Residential Single Family
YTD May 2019 vs YTD May 2020
Area Avg Sales $ % # Sold LP/SP DOM
Coeur d’Alene 98% (+1%) -8 (95)
Post Falls +4% ($411,000) -10% 99% (N/C) +3(111)
Hayden 99% (N/C) +16(120)
Rathdrum +10% ($344,000) +12% 99% (N/C) +13(121)
+2% -28%
($429,000) +10%
+19%
($388,000)
*Data provided by Trendgraphix
Multi Family
YTD May 2019 vs YTD May 2020
Area Avg Sales $ % +/- # Sold LP/SP DOM
01-Cd’A +20(91)
02-Post Falls -4% ($337,000) -61 % 99% +21(6)
03-Hayden
04-Rathdrum/TL +4% ($285,000) -50% 97% +434 (230)
-14 (61)
+659% +100% 94%
($2.5Mill) N/C (3) 97%
-34%
($337,000)
Housing supply remains at historically low levels, so house
price growth is likely to slow, but it’s not likely to go
negative.”
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American
Two forces prevent a collapse in house prices. First, as we indicated in our
earlier research report, U.S. housing markets face a large supply deficit. Second,
population growth and pent up household formations provide a tailwind to
housing demand.”
Freddie Mac
Locally we are seeing a small uptick in showings and activity. The consumer is ready
to re-engage In the market.
However one of our biggest obstacles currently will be lending, practices and weekly
changes to the norm.
Months of Inventory Analysis
Rathdrum Site Built < 2 Acres
February 1st, through April 30th , 2020
30
25 24
20
15 13 6 3 3 6
12 4 11 00
4 2
10 1 2 1
5 1
2 00
0
Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory Analysis
Post Falls Site Built < 2 Acres
February 1st, 2020 through April 30th , 2020
100
90 87
80
70 68
60
50 43
40
40
32
30
25
20
16 14
10 10 11 12
3
5 8 2 3 21
11 102223 5 0 0
0
2
Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory Analysis
Hayden Site Built < 2 Acres
February 1st, 2020 through April 30th , 2020
25
21
20
18
15
13 13
12
11 9 99
10
66
54 44 4 4 44 4 4
3 333
22 2 22 1
1 0
1
1
00
0
Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory
*Data provided by Cda MLS
Months of Inventory Analysis
CDA Site Built < 2 Acres
February 1st, 2020 through April 30th , 2020
50
46
45 44 44
40
35
30
27
25
20 18 18 9 6 5 9 3
17 00 2
15 16 4 3 3
1 2 1
10 15
14
54
00 12
10
0
66
5
4
11112
Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory
*Data provided by Cda MLS
Months of Inventory Analysis
Residential Waterfront
February 1st, 2020 through April 30th , 2020
25
21 21
20
15
12 12
11
10
7
6 66
5 5 44 4
4
3 33 3 333 3
2 2 22 2 2 22
11 1 1 1 1 1 11 11
00 00 00 00 0 0
0
Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory
*Data provided by Cda MLS