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Published by mike, 2020-05-13 14:22:07

May_2020 (1)

May_2020 (1)

Market Update May 2020

Major financial institutions are
calling for a 2nd half recovery

2020 GDP

0%

--44..88*%*

*Q1 GDP Advance Goldman Sachs
Estimate BEA.gov JP Morgan
Morgan Stanley
Quarter 1 Wells Fargo

Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

“Although the uncertainty of the crisis
means forecasts of economic activity are

more unclear than usual, we expect that
most of the economic damage from the
virus will be contained to the first half of
the year. Going forward, we should see a

recovery starting in the 2nd half of 2020.”

Sam Khater

Chief Economist at Freddie Mac

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Weekly Unemployment Filings

in millions

6.9 6.6

5.2
3.3 4.4 3.8 3.2

March 21 March 28 April 4 April 11 April 18 April 25 May 2

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Impact of COVID-19 to Real Estate Showings in North America

1/12 1/19 1/26 2/2 2/9 2/16 2/23 3/1 3/8 3/15 3/22 3/29 4/5 4/12 4/19 4/26 5/3 5/7

Weekly showings normalized to the first calendar
week of January, 7-day moving average.

ShowingTime

of all homes in
58.7% America have at

least 60% equity

Americans are sitting on tremendous equity

42.1% $177,000

of all homes are owned the average equity of the
‘free and clear’ mortgaged homes

John Burns Consulting CoreLogic

Mortgage Rate Projections

Quarter Freddie Fannie MBA NAR Average
Mac Mae of All Four

2020 2Q 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.47%

2020 3Q 3.2 3.1 3.6 3.8 3.42%

2020 4Q 3.2 3.0 3.5 3.9 3.40%

2021 1Q 3.1 3.0 3.5 4.0 3.40%

Residential Snap Shot

January 1st , 2020- April 30th , 2020 Residential

Area 01 CdA Area Snap Shot 02 Post Falls Area 03 Hayden

Active Listings November 1st, 2018 – January 31, 2019 303
Homes Sold/Closed YTD 649 Active Listings 652 Active Listings 139
Avg Days on Market
Median Sales Price 336 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 382 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 99
Avg Sales Price $359,000
SP/OLP 89 Avg Days on Market 107 Avg Days on Market $394,000

$340,000 Median Sales Price $315,000 Median Sales Price 98%

$372,000 Avg Sales Price $336,000 Avg Sales Price

98% SP/OLP 99% SP/OLP

Area 04 Rathdrum/Twin Lakes Area 04a Hauser Lake Area 05 Athol/Spirit Lake NW Kootenai Co

Active Listings 353 Active Listings 23 Active Listings 42
Homes Sold/Closed YTD 153 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 9 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 45
Avg Days on Market 122 Avg Days on Market 84 Avg Days on Market 77
Median Sales Price $305,000 Median Sales Price $502,000 Median Sales Price $355,000
Avg Sales Price $356,000 Avg Sales Price $464,000 Avg Sales Price $348,000
SP/OLP 98% SP/OLP 96% SP/OLP 99%

Area Athol/Bayview 06 NE Kootenai Co Area 12 Silver Valley Area All Kootenai Co

Active Listings 85 Active Listings 199 Active Listings 2441
Homes Sold/Closed YTD 30 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 87 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 1149
Avg Days on Market 119 Avg Days on Market 98 Avg Days on Market
Median Sales Price $358,000 Median Sales Price Median Sales Price 103
Avg Sales Price $358,000 Avg Sales Price $153,000 Avg Sales Price $329,000
SP/OLP 95% SP/OLP $176,000 SP/OLP $377,000

94% 98%

*Data provided by Cda MLS

Months of Inventory Analysis
Kootenai Site Built < 2 Acres
February 1st, 2020 through April 30th , 2020

200

186

180

160
148

140
126

120

100 46 37 86 72 63 43 27 15 12 14 855 582 6
1 2 2 55 34 17 9 8 8 00
80 15 5 5
1 3 4 2 5
60

40

20
6

11
0

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory Analysis
Kootenai Site Built > 2 Acres
February 1st, 2020 through April 30th , 2020

20

18
18

16 15 14
13 13
14
11 12 12 12
12
10
10 9

8 8 8 8
6 5
6
5
4
3 3 3 4 3 3 5 4 4
11 11 11 3 0 1
22 2 2 3
2 2 2

0 2

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory

Residential Sales Comparison Year over Year
All MLS

722

691

585
590

617

439 586

461 448 509
396
462

319 310

311
324

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2015 Sold 2016 Sold 2017 Sold 2018 Sold 2019 Sold 2020 Sold

*Data provided by CDA MLS

Residential Single Family
YTD May 2019 vs YTD May 2020

Area Avg Sales $ % # Sold LP/SP DOM
Coeur d’Alene 98% (+1%) -8 (95)
Post Falls +4% ($411,000) -10% 99% (N/C) +3(111)
Hayden 99% (N/C) +16(120)
Rathdrum +10% ($344,000) +12% 99% (N/C) +13(121)

+2% -28%
($429,000) +10%

+19%
($388,000)

*Data provided by Trendgraphix

Multi Family
YTD May 2019 vs YTD May 2020

Area Avg Sales $ % +/- # Sold LP/SP DOM
01-Cd’A +20(91)
02-Post Falls -4% ($337,000) -61 % 99% +21(6)
03-Hayden
04-Rathdrum/TL +4% ($285,000) -50% 97% +434 (230)
-14 (61)
+659% +100% 94%
($2.5Mill) N/C (3) 97%

-34%
($337,000)



Housing supply remains at historically low levels, so house
price growth is likely to slow, but it’s not likely to go
negative.”

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American

Two forces prevent a collapse in house prices. First, as we indicated in our
earlier research report, U.S. housing markets face a large supply deficit. Second,
population growth and pent up household formations provide a tailwind to
housing demand.”

Freddie Mac

Locally we are seeing a small uptick in showings and activity. The consumer is ready
to re-engage In the market.
However one of our biggest obstacles currently will be lending, practices and weekly
changes to the norm.

Months of Inventory Analysis
Rathdrum Site Built < 2 Acres
February 1st, through April 30th , 2020

30

25 24
20

15 13 6 3 3 6
12 4 11 00
4 2
10 1 2 1

5 1
2 00

0

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory Analysis
Post Falls Site Built < 2 Acres
February 1st, 2020 through April 30th , 2020

100

90 87

80

70 68

60

50 43
40
40
32
30
25
20
16 14
10 10 11 12
3
5 8 2 3 21
11 102223 5 0 0
0
2

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory Analysis
Hayden Site Built < 2 Acres
February 1st, 2020 through April 30th , 2020

25

21
20

18

15
13 13

12

11 9 99
10

66

54 44 4 4 44 4 4

3 333

22 2 22 1
1 0
1
1
00
0

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory

*Data provided by Cda MLS

Months of Inventory Analysis
CDA Site Built < 2 Acres

February 1st, 2020 through April 30th , 2020

50

46
45 44 44

40

35

30
27

25

20 18 18 9 6 5 9 3
17 00 2
15 16 4 3 3
1 2 1
10 15
14
54
00 12
10
0
66
5

4
11112

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory

*Data provided by Cda MLS

Months of Inventory Analysis
Residential Waterfront

February 1st, 2020 through April 30th , 2020

25

21 21
20

15

12 12

11
10

7
6 66

5 5 44 4
4

3 33 3 333 3

2 2 22 2 2 22

11 1 1 1 1 1 11 11

00 00 00 00 0 0
0

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory

*Data provided by Cda MLS


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