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Published by mike, 2020-08-12 15:42:56

aug2020

aug2020

Market Update
August 2020


Showings in North America

1/12 1/21 2/4 2/18 3/3 3/17 3/31 4/14 4/28 5/5 5/19 6/2 6/9 6/16 6/23 6/30 7/7 7/14 7/21 7/28

Weekly showings normalized to the first calendar
week of January, 7-day moving average.

ShowingTime


Purchase Applications

Year-Over-Year Difference

40%

30%

20%

10%

11 straight weeks of Y-O-Y increases

0%

-10%

-20%

seasonally adjusted

-30%

-40%
3/11 3/18 3/25 4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 5/13 5/20 5/27 6/3 6/10 6/17 6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15 7/22 7/29

MBA


Mortgage Rates - Actual
- Projected
Freddie Mac

30-Year Fixed Rate

2019
2018

2017

2020

2016 2021

2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
ate 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2

Freddie Mac


Large Range of Projections on Future Home Prices

4.4% 4.3% 4% Some project for the current year (*)
Others over the next 12 months (**)

3% 3%
2.3%

???

Fannie Mae* NAR* MBA* Zelman** Reuters' Poll** Freddie Mac* Zillow* CoreLogic Haus**

Zillow 7/17: “Home prices to fall just 0.5% from their -1% -1.1%
June peak to August, followed by a rapid recovery.”


The Housing Market Recovery Index

110 106.5 103.7

February 1st Baseline = 100

100

90 83.1

Combines 4 components:
1. Demand
80 2. Supply
3. Price
4. Time on the market

70

2/1 2/8 2/15 2/22 2/29 3/7 3/14 3/21 3/28 4/4 4/11 4/18 4/25 5/2 5/9 5/16 5/23 5/30 6/6 6/13 6/20 6/27 7/4 7/11 7/18 7/25

realtor.com


New Home Sales NATIONAL
% of sales by price range CdA MLS
41%
20%
26%
25%

19%

11% 11%
8%

1% 1% 5% $200-299K $300- $400- $500- 4%
1% $399K $499K $749K
Under 1%
$150K $150-
$199K Over
$750K
Census


Kootenai County Single Family Resale

*Data supplied by TrendGraphix


Single Family Re-Sale By Area
Year over Year Average Sales price Increase

25% 20%
22% 18%
19%
16%
11%
8%

01-Cda/Dalton PF Hayden 04-Rathdrum/Twin Lakes 05-NW Kootenai County 06-NE Kootenai County Silver Valley Bonner/Boundary Benewah

*Data provided by TrendGraphix -11%
As of 8/10/2020


Single Family New Construction By Area
Year over Year Average Sales price Increase

14%
12%

10% 10%

3%

-3%

01-Cda/Dalton PF Hayden -8% -10% 06-NE Kootenai County Silver Valley Bonner/Boundary

*Data provided by TrendGraphix 04-Rathdrum/Twin Lakes 05-NW Kootenai County
As of 8/10/2020


Residential Snap Shot

January 1st, 2020- July 31st, 2020 Residential

Area 01 CdA Area Snap Shot 02 Post Falls Area 03 Hayden

Active Listings November 1st, 2018 – January 31, 2019 548
Homes Sold/Closed YTD 1,153 Active Listings 1,110 Active Listings 339
Avg Days on Market 95
Median Sales Price 740 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 770 Homes Sold/Closed YTD $360,000
Avg Sales Price $424,000
SP/OLP 82 Avg Days on Market 105 Avg Days on Market 98%

$355,000 Median Sales Price $325,000 Median Sales Price

$385,000 Avg Sales Price $362,000 Avg Sales Price

98% SP/OLP 98% SP/OLP

Area 04 Rathdrum/Twin Lakes Area 04a Hauser Lake Area 05 Athol/Spirit Lake NW Kootenai Co

Active Listings 544 Active Listings 34 Active Listings 252
Homes Sold/Closed YTD 327 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 17 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 115
Avg Days on Market 114 Avg Days on Market 84 Avg Days on Market
Median Sales Price $319,000 Median Sales Price $502,000 Median Sales Price 85
Avg Sales Price $363,000 Avg Sales Price $437,000 Avg Sales Price $345,000
SP/OLP 99% SP/OLP 97% SP/OLP $375,000

98%

Area Athol/Bayview 06 NE Kootenai Co Area 12 Silver Valley Area All Kootenai Co

Active Listings 124 Active Listings 324 Active Listings 4,130
Homes Sold/Closed YTD 63 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 158 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 2,515
Avg Days on Market Avg Days on Market Avg Days on Market
Median Sales Price 105 Median Sales Price 94 Median Sales Price 98
Avg Sales Price $365,000 Avg Sales Price $161,000 Avg Sales Price $345,000
SP/OLP $397,000 SP/OLP $176,000 SP/OLP $411,000

97% 95% 98%

*Data provided by Cda MLS


Talking Points

• The buyer counseling interview is critically
important in this current market. Educate your
buyers in an optimistic way what the reality is,
let them absorb that reality in their timeframe.

• Since June, 65 properties have sold over $1mill
in our MLS, 18 of those have been over $2mill.


Months of Inventory Analysis
CDA Site Built < 2 Acres

May 1st, 2020 through July 31st, 2020

70
66
63 64

60

50
50

40
33

30

21

20 19 18 17 16

13 14 14

11

10 8

2 10 1 1 1 1 2 2 6 4 5 3 3 12
00 1 2 3 11 1

2

00

0

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory

*Data provided by Cda MLS


Months of Inventory Analysis
Residential Waterfront

May 1st, 2020 through July 31st, 2020

25

21 21
20

15

10 9

7

66

55 5 5 55 5
5
4 44 44 4 4 4

33 3 3 3 3 3
11 1 22 2 22
2 2 2 22 2 2 22 2 2 22 2
1 1 1 22 1 1 11

00
0

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory

*Data provided by Cda MLS


Months of Inventory Analysis
Kootenai Site Built < 2 Acres
May 1st, 2020 through July 31st, 2020

300

250 239
231

200
172

150
120

100

73
58 60

50 41 43 42 40 36
33
151 5 0 1 1
0 22 16 17
21
1 1 1 9 13 582 864 15 5 52 6
2 8 51 87 0 1

2

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory


Months of Inventory Analysis
Kootenai Site Built > 2 Acres
May 1st, 2020 through July 31st, 2020

25

21

20

17
16

15
13 13

12
11

10
10 9 9 9

66

55 55 5 5 5 5
5
44 4

3 33 33

2 2 2 2 22 2 2 22
2 11
11
1

00
0

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory


Months of Inventory Analysis
Post Falls Site Built < 2 Acres
May 1st, 2020 through July 31st, 2020

100

91
90

81
80

70
63

60

50

40
40

30
25

23

20

20 16

13 11

10 99
10
6 5
4 2
0 1 1 1 1 3 2 12 10 11
1

0

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory


Months of Inventory Analysis
Rathdrum Site Built < 2 Acres
May 1st, through July 31st, 2020

45

40 39

35
32

30

25

20

15
13

10 4 8 6 44
8 0 00 3
4
5 2 2 2 22
10 0 00
1
0 0

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory


Months of Inventory Analysis
Hayden Site Built < 2 Acres
May 1st, 2020 through July 31st, 2020

45

40 39

35 34 32
30

25

20

15
15

12 12

10 9 9 9

5 55

54 44 44

23 33 2 22
0
11 0 1 1 1 1 10 1 0 1 1
0 0

0

Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory

*Data provided by Cda MLS


Residential Sales Comparison Year over Year
All MLS

782

722

628 691 585
590
420 617

439 448 586

461 462 509
396
319 310

311
324

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2015 Sold 2016 Sold 2017 Sold 2018 Sold 2019 Sold 2020 Sold

*Data provided by CDA MLS


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