Market Update
August 2019
Mortgage Rate Projections
Quarter Freddie Fannie MBA NAR Average
Mac Mae of All Four
2019 3Q 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.92%
2019 4Q 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.95%
2020 1Q 4.1 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.97%
2020 2Q 4.1 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.0%
7/2019
The Probability of Home Prices Being Lower in 2 Years
07/2019 Housing & Mortgage Market Review
Increase in Home Values 2005-2018
Realtor.org
4.1 PROJECTED
Mean Percentage Appreciation
3.4
2.8 3.0
2.5
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
2019 Q2 Home Price Expectation Survey
27.7% Cumulative House
Appreciation
by 2023
16.8%
6.7%
Bulls All Projections Bears
2019 Q2 Home Price Expectation Survey
Case Shiller
6.5%
6.2%
6.0% Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES
20 City Composite
5.7%
5.5%
5.3% 5.2%
4.1% 3.7%
3.5% 3.5%
3.0%
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2019 Feb Mar April
07/2019 S&P Case Shiller
Actual Year-Over-Year % Change in Price
7/2019 CoreLogic
Income Brackets for 25-44 Year Olds
12% 13%
$75k-99,999 $0-24,999
16% 8%
$60k-74,999 $25k-34,999
17% 14%
$45k-59,999 $35k-44,999
YTD (8/12/2019)
Single Family, Kootenai County
% of Market Share
$0-149,999 $150-199,999
14 Units 55 units
1% 3%
$250-299,999 $200-249,999
558 units 345 Units
28% 17%
YTD (8/12/2019)
Condo, Kootenai County
% of Market Share
$200-249,999 $250-299,999 $0-149,999
17 Units 9 units 18 Units
15% 8% 16%
$150-199,999
27 units
24%
Residential Sales Comparison Year over Year
All MLS
722
691
583 653 590
535 617 585
586
461 462 530
388
461 459
319311 307
324
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2014 Sold 2015 Sold 2016 Sold 2017 Sold 2018 Sold 2019 Sold
*Data provided by CDA MLS
Residential Snap Shot
January 1st , 2019-July 31st , 2019 Residential
Area 01 CdA Area Snap Shot 02 Post Falls Area 03 Hayden
Active Listings November 1st, 2018 – January 31, 2019 702
Homes Sold/Closed YTD 1332 Active Listings 1370 Active Listings 384
Avg Days on Market 86
Median Sales Price 772 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 779 Homes Sold/Closed YTD $353,000
Avg Sales Price $416,000
SP/OLP 83 Avg Days on Market 97 Avg Days on Market 98%
$315,000 Median Sales Price $283,000 Median Sales Price
$358,000 Avg Sales Price $311,000 Avg Sales Price
98% SP/OLP 99% SP/OLP
Area 04 Rathdrum/Twin Lakes Area 04a Hauser Lake Area 05 Athol/Spirit Lake NW Kootenai Co
Active Listings 517 Active Listings 36 Active Listings 179
Homes Sold/Closed YTD 280 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 21 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 100
Avg Days on Market 105 Avg Days on Market 74 Avg Days on Market 91
Median Sales Price $287,000 Median Sales Price $484,000 Median Sales Price $285,000
Avg Sales Price $326,000 Avg Sales Price $467,000 Avg Sales Price $313,000
SP/OLP 99% SP/OLP 98% SP/OLP 98%
Area Athol/Bayview 06 NE Kootenai Co Area 12 Silver Valley Area All Kootenai Co
Active Listings 94 Active Listings 341 Active Listings 4700
Homes Sold/Closed YTD 38 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 179 Homes Sold/Closed YTD 2505
Avg Days on Market 91 Avg Days on Market 109 Avg Days on Market
Median Sales Price $392,000 Median Sales Price $132,000 Median Sales Price 94
Avg Sales Price $400,000 Avg Sales Price $151,000 Avg Sales Price $308,000
SP/OLP 97% SP/OLP 95% SP/OLP $363,000
96%
*Data provided by Cda MLS
Year over Year by Zip code
Average Sold Prices
83801 334,000 417,000 +25%
83869
83858 328,000 352,000 +7%
83854
83835 341,000 364,000 +7%
83815
83814 318,000 323,000 +2%
423,000 471,000 +11%
325,000 346,000 +6.5%
497,000
-12%
566,000
Jul-19 Jul-18
Year over Year by Area
Average Sold Prices
Bonner/Boundary 369,000 +14%
Benewah 324,000
Cda Rural West 160,000 +3%
Chain Lakes/Harrison 155,000
517,000 826,000
+60%
394,000 468,000 +19%
CdA Rural East 890,090801,000 +10%
NW Kootenai 303,000 -8%
329,000
NE Kootenai 265,030905,000 +8%
Jul-19 Jul-18
Months of Inventory Analysis
Kootenai Site Built < 2 Acres
May 1st ,2019 through July 31st, 2019
350
300 290
250 201
147
200
151
150
100 95 84
87
75
53 48
50 42
15 18 1 1 2 2 3 23 2625 18 15 10 8 4 19 426 754 21 21
7 0 16 3 11 76 11 31 200 32
5
1 2 5
0
Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory Analysis
Kootenai Site Built > 2 Acres
May 1st ,2019 through July 31st , 2019
35
30
30
25
21 21
20 19
1818
16 15
15
15 14 14
13
11 10 10 10 10
10 8 6
3
4 8 8 6
3 7 2 5
6 66
5 3 44 333 3 5 33 3
2 22 3
44
2
1 11
00
0
Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory
Talking Points….
• Average DOM in Kootenai County In July were 78
• Median sold price in Kootenai county is up 10% from
this time last year, All residential
• Single family Kootenai County is also up 10%
• Single family on acreage is up 9%
• Waterfront residential Kootenai County is up 9% YTD
year over year
• Multi Family Kootenai County is up 22% YTD
• Condos are up 22% as well YTD
Months of Inventory Analysis
Residential Waterfront
May 1st ,2019 through July 31st, 2019
25
21 21
20
15
11
10
8 77 7 77 77 8
7 66 6
55 5 5 55 2
5 4 00
44 4 4 4
3 2
3 33 3 3
2 2
22 2
1 11 1
00 0 0
0
Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory
*Data provided by Cda MLS
Months of Inventory Analysis
Post Falls Site Built < 2 Acres
May 1st, 2019 through July 31st , 2019
140
120 117
100
83
80
67
60
51 50
47 45
40
26
20 15 13
5 3 8 7 232 113 122 200 200
0 5 21
1 2 2 000 000
0
Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory Analysis
Rathdrum Site Built < 2 Acres
May 1st, 2019 through July 31st, 2019
35
32
30
25
20
18
15
15
11
10 9
8
6
55
5 44
3 23 3
22
1 0 1 1
0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0
0
Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory Analysis
Hayden Site Built < 2 Acres
May 1st, 2019 through July 31st , 2019
40 21
38
35
30
30
27
25
20
20
15 14
13
11 11
10 9 9 9
88 8
7 7 6
6
5 44
3 33 3 3 333
2 2
121 1
11
00 0 0
0
0
Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory
*Data provided by Cda MLS
Months of Inventory Analysis
CDA Site Built < 2 Acres
May 1st , 2019 through July 31st, 2019
100
92
90
80
70 68
60 52
50 48
40
33
30 26
24
20 20 21 21
20 17
15
13 1212
10 8 98 645
3
4 1 1 2 3 223 443 5 010 2 2 2
22 2 1 00 0
1 1 000 0
0
Active Listings Sold During Time Period Months of Inventory
*Data provided by Cda MLS