2019 Week 13 Huntingten Homies Fantasy Newsletter

Power
Rankings

1. Chip
2. Andre
3. Ridge
4. Andy
5. Grant
6. Nick
7. Hedgehogs
8. Stephen
9. Thad
10. Jeffrey
11.Urchins
12. Connor

Intro

Last week had so much weight going in and it was one of the less exciting matchups atleast it did
not provide any close matchups. We also saw the four most predictable teams go into the playoffs
which might be a good thing since they seemed like the four best teams this season. As you can see on
the cover, the four teams that finished at the top on ESPN also finished top four in my power rankings
formula. There is still a lot to play for. Each of us are involved in bowl games that were outlined in the
Week 1 newsletter. Almost all of them are still up for grabs. Don’t you want to be recognized after the
season at the ceremony Ridge is putting together?

There are 8 teams that are playing big games this week and next. There are of course Andy,
Andre, Chip, and Ridge battling to hoist the trophy and be immortalized in Huntingten Homies history.
Then there are the four of Thad, Grant, Connor, and Alec. Funnily all of these teams are in the East. The
loser of the bottom four will be immortalized in their own way as they pose partially nude for a 12
month calendar. That means there is a lot to play for including the unnamed bonus tournament. Keep in
mind that if one of the bottom four wins that tourney then they will not have to do the calendar.

I can’t recall the seeding from every year before this, but in my memory, the 1 seed has never
won the trophy. I can’t remember the Connor years especially. But usually when we have a really good
team like Chip, someone rises up to beat them. Could we see a Chip vs Andy rematch for the third time?
We definitely could. We could also see Andre reach his first championship game after a 9 win season,
and we could see Ridge return to the championship for the first time since 2016 when he was beaten by
Stephen.

Strength of Schedule

This will be the last time you see this chart this year. So the season ends with Ridge facing the
hardest schedule and Chip facing the easiest schedule. Both teams made the playoffs, so how much
does it matter?

Alternate Schedules

Team Urchins Andre Andy Chip Connor Grant Jeffrey HedgehogsNick Ridge Stephen Thad

Urchins 5 57 6 53 6 77 6 4 6
8
Andre 89 8 11 7 7 8 8 10 6 7 9
7
Andy 9 10 7 9 10 6 7 68 7 5 4
8
Chip 10 11 11 12 12 10 9 9 11 7 10 7
7
Connor 5 5 3 63 21 34 1 5 5
7
Grant 9 6 9 8 95 7 67 5 3 6

Jeffrey 4 5 8 6 6 26 57 4 3

Hedgehogs 4 6 8 6 7 5 7 6 55 5

Nick 7 85 8 86 6 56 36

Ridge 8 7 8 10 10 7 9 8 87 7

Stephen 4 75 8 76 6 5 4 56

Thad 5 75 7 53 4 6 6 5 56

After 13 weeks you can see how many games you could have won if you’d had someone else’s schedule.
A highlighted cell means the number is at least 2 different from your actual number of wins. Chip could
have finished with 5 fewer wins, and Ridge and Connor could have had 3 more wins on certain
schedules.

Luckiness

Here is the final glance of how lucky or unlucky you were this season. Hedgehogs and Nick both finished
with pretty accurate records of 6-7. Grant was very unfortunate as you could see he was ranked number
5 in the formulated power rankings but instead finished 5-8. The numbers suggest he should have been
7-6. Chip was lucky, but it wasn’t enough to change his playoff appearance. The same goes for Andre.

Urchins 5 5.636364 The first column shows team name, the second column
Andre
Andy 9 8 shows how many wins you had, and the third column
Chip 7 7.818182
Connor 12 9.727273 shows how many wins you SHOULD have had.
Grant
Jeffrey 3 3.545455
Hedgehogs
Nick 57
Ridge
Stephen 6 5.181818
Thad
6 5.909091

6 6.090909

7 8.090909

6 5.727273

6 5.272727

Obviously you all would like some comparisons, and that’s something I can provide for you next
week, but this week I will try and fill that void with some interesting new stats.

Team under 100 record under 100 The first stat is how many times teams
scored under 100 points and what their
Urchins 4 1-3 record was in those games. I was a little
surprised more people did not have wins
Andre 2 0-2 when scoring sub 100. Overall we had 78
games played this year, 156 when you
Andy 3 0-3 account for 2 teams per matchup with 39
of those 156 scoring below 100. That
Chip 0 means about 25% of teams scored below
100 each week. Only 3 of those 39 sub 100
Connor 4 0-4 scores equaled a victory though. That’s just
shy of 8%, meaning you just had an 8
Grant 4 0-4 percent chance to win if you were below
100. Hedgehogs reaped the rewards of
Jeffrey 5 0-5 below 100 scoring the most as he went 2-2
when going sub 100. Props to Chip for
Hedgehogs 4 2-2 never scoring below 100 points. Thad
scored below 100 the most losing all 6 of
Nick 3 0-3 those matches. This also means I went 6-1
when above 100.
Ridge 2 0-2

Stephen 2 0-2

Thad 6 0-6

Team Games Decided by <10.6 points Record in close games This next chart shows how many

Urchins 2 1-1 games you played in that were

Andre 2 1-1 decided by less than 10.6 points. I

Andy 2 0-2 chose this number as 10.5 can

Chip 3 3-0 round down to 10 in my mind. So

Connor 5 1-4 out of 78 matchups, 20 of them

Grant 4 1-3 were decided by 10.5 points or

Jeffrey 2 2-0 less. That is about 26% which I

Hedgehogs 4 2-2 thought was pretty high. I

Nick 2 1-1 expected for Connor to have the

Ridge 7 4-3 highest number of close games,

Stephen 4 3-1 but it was easily Ridge. In fact

Thad 3 1-2 over half of Ridge’s games were

decided by 10.5 points or less. That’s insane and stressful. Chip proved to be the King of close games

while Connor was clearly the jester. The closest game was Thad’s victory over Nick by .5 points. Despite

only having 2 close games, Nick’s average margin of victory was the closest to 0. On average he lost by

less than 1 point. That doesn’t mean much but it’s pretty cool.

Weekly Scoring

Team Average St. Dev 95% lower 95% upper This is pretty much the last fun
Urchins stat I will leave with you all today.
Andre 109.34 28.16 53.0 165.7 Here you can see the average
number of points you scored
127.54 29.76 68.0 187.0

Andy 125.06 27.91 69.2 180.9 each week as well as the

Chip 136.82 19.65 97.5 176.1 standard deviation in the points
Connor 106.06 27.95 50.2 162.0 that you scored. To give you a
Grant 117.37 23.53 70.3 164.4 brief lesson in statistics, the
standard deviation provides us

Jeffrey 110.19 19.58 71.0 149.4 some predictive numbers based

Hedgehogs 109.43 23.31 62.8 156.1 on the past. It is the 68%, 95%,
Nick 115.77 18.62 78.5 153.0 99.7% rule. If you take your
Ridge 121.39 20.45 80.5 162.3 average points and add/ subtract
the standard deviation once,

Stephen 111.30 15.23 80.8 141.8 then 68% of your scoring will be

Thad 105.95 24.97 56.0 155.9 contained in those two numbers.

When you add/subtract the standard

deviation twice then that accounts for 95% and adding/subtracting three times accounts for 99.7% of

your scoring. We don’t have enough data for 99.7% so above I listed the boundaries for the 95% rule. A

lower standard deviation means a more consistent team, which is not inherently a good thing. You want

to have a high lower bound and a high upper bound. Stephen’s team is the most predictable with the

smallest St. Dev. Chip however only has a 2.5% chance of scoring below 97.5 which is by far the highest

floor of any team. Connor’s team is the least safe. Stephen funnily has the lowest ceiling of any team,

while Andre has the highest ceiling.

Predictions

I can’t match the beauty Chip puts into these predictions, and I won’t even try. There also isn’t much to
predict since its all opinion. But I will try to break down each matchups importance and history if there is
any.

RICHARD SHERMAN vs MEBOURNE SEA URCHINS

One of Connor’s three wins came against the Urchins in week 1. The loser of this matchup is going to
have to be STRESSED for two more weeks on if they have to do a calendar shoot. Connor has said that
he is mentally prepared to get last and already has some poses in mind. Despite being 3-10, Connor has
1 of the 4 positive outliers this season when he scored 176 points. Urchins is already off to a fast start
thanks to 3 TDs from Cooper and Robinson. I don’t know how to pick Connor here and feel confident,
but these are the two worst teams so anything can happen.

My Pick: Melbourne Sea Urchins

DALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS vs MASTER KI-THADI-MUNDI

Grant beat my butt in our previous meeting this year. Last year we split our regular season meetings and
I beat him in the playoffs. I do consider this a rivalry, and it should only be enhanced by the fact the loser
is sent to the last place game. Grant is guaranteed a feature regardless. This should be an ugly matchup
since we have scored below 100 points a combined 10 times. Grant is fifth in the power rankings
however and Grant is the most unlucky team in the league. I look for Grant’s luck to take a turn.

My Pick: Dalvin and the Chipmunks

TANKING FOR TUA vs HUNTINGTON HEDGEHOGS

These teams have no stress of shooting a half nude calendar although both of them would look great
doing it. Jeffrey has arguably the best keepers in the league which is a great thing to lean on in the
playoffs. The winner of this game can make a push to finish fifth which I view as a moral victory. They
can also finish with a winning record if either of them win out. Jeffrey lost the only matchup he has ever
had against Hedgehogs. Both of these gentlemen can still make pushes to win the Beverly Hills Bowl as
well.

My Pick: Tanking for Tua

NUKTOWN OBJYNs vs TEAM NOLAN

The Coal Bowl is at stake here. Stephen lost to Nick in the regular season. That means their historic
series record sits at 1-1. This irrelevant game can launch the winner to a winning record and the fifth
place spot, which is once again a moral victory. I think Stephen wants this more, which is why I think
Nick will win it.

My Pick: Team Nolan

DAVANTE’S INFERNO vs DADDY’S DARLINGS

Andy won the only matchup between these teams this year. Andre has never beaten Andy in the
documented history of the league. Granted that is only two years. This is by far their biggest matchup
ever. Andre has the 2019 record for most points in a week with 186.3. This was early in the season, and
Andre often leans on the Pats defense which is a risky think to do in general. It is also hard to forget
about Andre’s historical meltdown last year that kept him out of the playoffs. For a couple weeks it
seemed like it was going to happen again. Andy has been here before and has the better top end talent.

My Pick: Davante’s Inferno

RUFFLES HAVE RIDGES vs ALVIN AND THE NOSE RINGS

Unsurprisingly, 12-1 Chip won his only 2019 matchup against Ridge. Chip is averaging 9 more points than
the next closest person. He is averaging 15 more points than Ridge each week. Chip is 2-1 vs Ridge all
time. There is a little bit of a rivalry here as last year a bizarre tiebreaker led to Chip getting the 2 seed
over Ridge. Ridge then got bumped first round and Chip went on to win. Ridge would have won it all if
he had been the 2 seed. When you take luckiness into account Chip’s team is only about 1.5 wins better
than Ridge’s. This could be a good two week matchup. I for one do not want to see Chip vs Andy again.

My Pick: Alvin and the Nose Rings