NewsHawks 1 July 2022

NewsHawks Reframing Issues Page 47

Issue 87, 1 July 2022 Africa has entrepreneurs,
just not the right kind
To transition Africa’s army
of ‘necessity entrepreneurs’
into ‘opportunity entrepre-
neurs’, inventiveness and
ingenuity — not business
as usual — need to be the
order of the day

ADAM MOLAI A woman displays her clothing wares in Harare. posed to the current fixation with
foreign direct investment. African
WHY does Africa, which is so beset at 52. SA was ranked 57th and Na- Bezos),  but we are hard-pressed to entrepreneurial paradigms and countries must also focus on pro-
by challenges, have so few success- mibia 61st. The Entrepreneurship name many Africans apart from models we can replicate to provide viding quality education — partic-
ful entrepreneurs who have brought Index 2021, compiled by CEO Elon Musk (though he is a product African entrepreneurs with the ularly maths, science and reading,
a concept to market, added to na- World magazine, also ranks the US of the US), Aliko Dangote, Strive necessary security they require; we as Chile does — as this will go a
tional income, provided new goods as the most entrepreneurial coun- Masiyiwa, Patrice Motsepe, Johann should look instead to countries long way towards transitioning
and services, and created jobs? This try, followed by Germany and the Rupert or Christo Wiese. like Chile, which is ranked 9th on “necessity entrepreneurs” to “op-
is a question I have asked myself of- UK. SA is the highest ranked-Afri- the Approved Index (with about portunity entrepreneurs”. In fact, I
ten over the years. can country on the list at 48, fol- And of those African industri- 11% of its population choosing believe we should go even further
lowed by Kenya in 63rd position. alists or entrepreneurs we can list, entrepreneurship) and 19th on the than Chile and actually introduce
Entrepreneurship is about iden- who among them can be consid- GEI 2018 list. entrepreneurship education from a
tifying challenges that need to be What is interesting to note how- ered a “necessity entrepreneur”? primary school level across the con-
solved and coming up with solu- ever, is that the US does not boast Not one! Most come from fairly Like most of Africa, Chile re- tinent.
tions for solving them and bring- the most entrepreneurs in the world; privileged backgrounds with dis- mains beset by obdurate inequali-
ing them to market in the form of when it comes to number of entre- tinct advantages, including access ty, but it has managed to inculcate We also need to figure out how
new goods or services. What is the preneurs it comes in 41st, with en- to savings and security to tide them a culture of entrepreneurialism to better fund entrepreneurs in Af-
reason, then, that a continent as trepreneurs making up only 4.3% over while they were building their that is the envy of the developing rica. While you don’t always require
largely under-developed as Africa is of its adult population, according businesses. world. Start-up funding, education, capital to start a business — I am
failing to come up with solutions to to UK-based business-networking innovation and an entrepreneurial a firm believer that money follows
the myriad problems, and monetis- group Approved Index.  The coun- So what is to be done? First, we environment all are considered to good ideas — “necessity entrepre-
ing them? try with the most entrepreneurs, need to acknowledge that while Af- contribute to Chile’s culture of en- neurs” need to draw “salaries” from
according to this index, is Uganda. rica has many “necessity entrepre- trepreneurship. their enterprises from the outset to
Is it bureaucracy? Lack of Imagi- Cameroon, Angola and Botswana neurs” and lots of entrepreneurial look after their families. This is not
nation? Ineptitude? Access to capi- also make the top 10.  activity, it is not the right kind of Government’s prioritisation of good business practice, so we need
tal? Bureaucracy and access to cap- activity that will bring a concept supporting entrepreneurs through to consider carefully how we can
ital are factors, but they are not the What this clearly indicates is that to market, add to national income, deregulation and cutting bureau- financially support entrepreneurs
main problem. The primary reason quantity does not equal “quality”. provide new goods and services cracy to make it easy to set up a while they bring their concept to
entrepreneurship is not driving Af- This is why we have no difficulty and create jobs. This acknowledge- business is one that African govern- market.
rican development is because Africa naming a US company or idea that ment will allow us to change how ments should endeavour to copy. In
is not breeding the right kind of en- pioneered a new service or product we tackle entrepreneurship in Afri- addition to cutting red tape, gov- Proper incubators are necessary
trepreneurs. (Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Ora- ca. As they say, accepting there is ernments should look at giving lo- to assist entrepreneurs to effectively
cle, Uber, Tesla, Google are just a a problem is the first step towards cal companies the same tax breaks structure and develop their product
Africa is rife with “necessity en- few that spring to mind) or a US solving it. and concessions that they do to and service and also lead them in
trepreneurs”, rather than “oppor- entrepreneur considered to be “vi- foreign investors. This encourages the right way to raise capital. How-
tunity entrepreneurs”. “Necessity sionary” (Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Jeff It is that we should not be look- domestic direct investment as op- ever, this capital-raising provision
entrepreneurs” are defined by Eu- ing at the developed world for needs to be made for the basic “ne-
ropean economist André van Stel cessity cover” to facilitate entrepre-
(who analysed the effect of entre- neurs to also survive while building
preneurship on economic growth the business. Or providing incen-
and found that the former’s influ- tives — in the form of tax breaks
ence on the latter depends on the or the conversion of loans to grants
level of income) as those with low upon successfully achieving certain
incomes who are “forced to em- milestones, and grants for every
brace entrepreneurship out of ne- sustainable job you create - so that
cessity or survival”. success is rewarded.

Cue the many Africans who This is admittedly not an easy
have spaza shops, hairdressers, bar- challenge to solve, but it is one Af-
bers or nail salons. Or who engage rican governments need to look at
in arbitrage. Most have started a solving urgently for “opportunity”
business not because it is a calling entrepreneurship to thrive.
or a passion, but out of necessity.
They are not looking to bring new Finally, we need to get serious
products or services to market; they about mentoring. Several studies of
are focused — completely under- start-ups in Africa have shown that
standably — on putting food on they fail in the first one to three
the table, their children through years because of lack of mentor-
school and looking after the ex- ing (as well as access to capital). As
tended family. Conversely, says Van indicated, I believe money follows
Stel, “opportunity entrepreneurs” good ideas, so mentoring in every-
are people who primarily engage thing from crafting a business plan
in business as a result of a delib- to understanding pricing and how
erate personal choice to pursue a to determine their unique selling
perceived business opportunity, be proposition is critical. And mento-
in control of one’s life, achieve a ring needs to be provided not for
feeling of self-esteem or have more just a matter of months, but for
independence. years.

They are often from high-in- Necessity, as they say, is the
come countries, which is why it is mother of invention. To transition
not surprising that, despite most Africa’s army of “necessity entrepre-
Africans being engaged in the “in- neurs” into “opportunity entrepre-
formal sector”, the Global Entre- neurs”, inventiveness and ingenuity
preneurship Index 2018 lists the - not business as usual - need to be
US as the most entrepreneurial the order of the day.
country of all, followed by Switzer-
land and Canada. — Business Day.

This ranking is based on the *About the writer: Adam Molai,
ability of an entrepreneur to “bring an African industrialist, is found-
a concept to market, adding to er of TRT Investments, which has
national income, providing new operations in Nigeria, SA, Zimba-
goods and services, and creating bwe, Zambia, Mozambique and
jobs”.  Botswana was the highest Botswana.
ranked African country on this list

Page 48 NewsHawks

Issue 87, 1 July 2022

It’s time for the G7 to deliver on Africa

THIS year’s  G7 leaders’ summit, President Uhuru Kenyatta (far right) makes an address to 2017 G7 Summit. to use their presidency of the G7 to
which began on Sunday in Schloss foster a “sustainable planet, healthy
Elmau in the Bavarian Alps and be closed to facilitate the AU’s effort But this revolution comes at a time able industrial development, research lives, investment in a better future
concluded on Tuesday took place at at an African renaissance with its 15 when climate impacts demand a dif- and development, employment cre- and a world that is stronger together.” 
a time of great global upheaval and Flagship projects. The G7 has a pres- ferent path for economic develop- ation and sustainable livelihoods and
uncertainty. ent and historical duty to assist by ment.  value addition to commodities in the But to date, the G7, as a collective,
drawing on their  financing commit- case of African minerals and divest- has failed to take the action needed.
Every year, the country holding the ments for Africa. As a result, climate change is no ment from fossil fuels and investment For example, the G7 failed to assist
G7 presidency invites partner coun- longer a buzzword;  COP26  was in renewable energy. meaningfully with vaccine access and
tries to attend parts of the summit. A reminder that Africa contribut- about what the world must do to other measures to  mitigate the eco-
This year, Germany invited Senegal, ed just 3% of global emissions but is avert, reverse, and mitigate the cli- German investment in Afri- nomic impact  of the pandemic on
which holds the rotating chair of the already dealing with the unaffordable mate crisis and how it will fund such ca stood at 1% of its total external in- Africa and its effects on its people.
African Union (AU),  Argentina, In- impacts of a changing climate on in- efforts. With Africa broadly lagging vestment in 2018. Last year, the G7,
dia, Indonesia and South Africa.  frastructure, communities and liveli- far behind industrially and with a sig- hosted by the UK, pledged to invest G7 leaders can  listen to the sci-
hoods, driving further inequality. nificant infrastructure gap, unending US$80 billion in Africa. ence  and should affirm their com-
The war in Ukraine erupted just illicit financial outflows, and mini- mitment to an inclusive finance,
as the global economy was begin- Some can argue that the G7s first mal access to advanced technologies, There is potential for mutual ben- preparation and prevention approach
ning to recover from the devastation three fossil-fuel-powered industrial some still expect a  just transition  to efit for Germany and Africa in Ger- to global health challenges. To avoid
of the Covid-19 pandemic. From an revolutions coupled with colonialism be accepted by all and move smoothly man foreign direct investment , as repeating the current unequal and
African perspective, the G7  Leaders’ have enabled them to grow exponen- with successful outcomes.  with G7 FDIs in Africa. This case has unjust response that keeps life-saving
Summit must focus on the immedi- tially in technological, social, military been made by African, broader mar- medicines, technologies and recipes
ate and urgent need to end the war and general economic prowess but Very little has been forthcoming by gins and developed economies leaders to produce them out of reach to Afri-
in Ukraine, but the G7 must also also at the expense of the environ- way of genuine development partner- many times over. The recent tour of can countries. 
address the unfolding multiple crises ment and the climate. Post-colonial ships on the part of the G7. By this, I Africa by German Chancellor Olaf
from Cape Town to Cairo. Africa has effectively been a net pro- am referring to a departure from aid Scholz, six months into his term of In addition, the G7 and the G20
vider of the materials required for this politics and relations to something office, attests to the importance both committed to reallocating US$100bn
While the G7 heads of state repre- advancement with little sustainable more innovative and revolutionary parties attach to this relationship. of  Special Drawing Rights  out of
sent only 10% of the global popula- development of any of its economies. as the fourth industrial revolution it- One continuing from  former Chan- US$650bn to help International
tion but almost 40% of global GDP, The net result is structural global in- self. I am referring to investment and cellor Angela Merkel  in 2018, just Monetary Fund member countries
their decisions can have a lasting equality and poverty  and a climate partnerships that would trigger has- before the pandemic, is evidence of a facing economic crises. 
impact on the fight against global crisis that hugely impacts global eco- tened sustainable industrial growth positive trend over the last four years. 
inequality and hunger, investment in nomic stability. and development in Africa that the However, to date, African countries
energy transition and climate action, AU in its  Agenda 2063  is pushing But the plight of Africa for covid received roughly US$33bn. For com-
advancing gender equality and end- The question is whether the G7, for, as well as industrialisation more vaccines,  vaccine nationalism, and parison, the US received US$113bn
ing gender-based violence.  under Germany’s leadership, will turn broadly to realise the  UN’s Agenda slow and ultimately muted  resolu- and the US$100bn, which African
years of talk into meaningful, just and 2030  to avoid, reverse, or mitigate tions on the TRIPS waiver propos- countries desperately need, has yet to
With South Africa and Senegal as sustainable action.  the poly pandemic.  als  have made things difficult for be reallocated. 
AU chair attending the G7, it is im- Africans. The slow and minimal as-
portant to reflect on the history and The  fourth industrial revolu- Germany has a role to play if it sistance in developing local pharma- The G7 has promised much to Af-
purpose of the G7, especially consid- tion,  defined by technological ad- wants to. Many argue that  Foreign ceutical manufacturing capacity on rica through endless so-called aid of-
ering the economic challenges faced vancements that characterise human Direct Investment in Africa is key to the continent has not added as much ferings. For decades, G7 leaders have
by the global economy. Any  African endeavours of the current and future, sustainable recovery and growth. In- enthusiasm and hope as a genuine pledged to allocate 0.7% of their re-
perspective  of the G7 Summit must is here. Some may even argue for a deed, fresh funds imply the erection development partnership could have.  spective countries (GNI) to interna-
consider the colonial and neocolo- fifth industrial revolution with the of factories, stimulation of sustain- tional aid to support Africa and other
nial history between the G7 member pace of technological evolutions. According to Germany, they want continents in need. 
states and Africa, especially that of the
summit host Germany and Africa. However,  Global Citizen  reports
that by 2021, G7 countries did not
The  foundational  purpose of the even reach half of that and collective-
G7 forum —  the US, UK, Canada, ly provided 0.32%. More concerning
France, Germany, Italy, and Japan is that even if this “aid” arrives often,
— was an intervention in global fi- it is counteracted by African coun-
nancial and economic governance. tries’ trade deficits and illicit finan-
The forum first met in 1975 to dis- cial flows. Africa needs development
cuss and take pertinent resolutions partners who care about its citizens’
on the worldwide economy and the environment, climate and economic
global financial architecture, such as and social wellbeing.
responses to the oil crisis in the early
1970s and the exchange rate changes Any development support that ig-
resulting from the US departure from nores Africa’s post-colonial challenges
the gold standard in 1971.  relating to trade, food sovereignty and
energy sovereignty will merely deepen
Similar to today, these decisions Africa’s economic challenges. The G7
were of great significance and had a can be genuine partners to Africa. 
lasting impact on the other 188 coun-
tries in the global economy, most of To do this, the G7 must invest in
which were, at the time, newly in- a global financial and trade architec-
dependent, some affected by armed ture that enables African countries to
conflict, and had little to no indus- produce their own food and energy to
trial capacity, poor economically but meet their domestic needs, facilitate
rich in raw materials.  technological transfer to enable sus-
tainable essential manufacturing and
There has never been any doubt industrial activity and invest in pub-
that these countries, many of which lic education, research, and develop-
are in  Africa, want to develop  and ment. This will support real, sustain-
move from net receivers of so-called able, productive jobs and livelihoods
aid to self-reliant net providers of in- on the continent. 
novations and solutions to the chal-
lenges and problems confronting The G7 summit will come and go,
them and the world. Colonialism, as many have done. But this summit
underdevelopment, inequalities, pov- presided by a presidency that has pro-
erty have been and continue to be a fessed a genuine interest and intent
major  global crisis that has dragged for development partnership stands
on for ages, compounded in Afri- a chance to leave something more
ca by exclusion from  global value memorable. 
chains  and, sustained  illicit finan-
cial outflows,  and worsening threats What can it leave behind? For
from pandemics and climate change, starters, a positive resolution on spe-
among other challenges.  cial drawing rights assistance for Af-
rica, interventions on illicit financial
Africa has warned that it has a sig- flows and encouragement of invest-
nificant infrastructure gap that must ments through effective, sustainable
development partnerships.

— Mail & Guardian.

NewsHawks Page 49

Issue 87, 1 July 2022

How Kenya’s degree requirement for
top political posts turned into a fiasco

MAINA WA MUTONYA

THE rush for academic credentials is nor and presidential aspirants. dentials is misplaced. The level of ed- who use dubious means to secure Kenyan Parliament.
nothing new ahead of a Kenyan elec- More than 10 years after it was ucation of the political class is not the academic papers they did not work
tion. Candidates are challenged about key to progress. Leadership has never for must face the law. And academ- of legislators  is mostly based on the
the existence or validity of their uni- enacted, it is questionable whether been defined by academic excellence. ic and regulatory institutions must contributions of parliamentarians
versity degrees, and  controversy  is the requirement achieved what was If this were the case, the 12th Ken- face up to their responsibilities, show on the floor of the House. But the
common. intended. In early June, the Indepen- yan parliament (2017-2022) – which their independence and not be used accomplishment of a development
dent Electoral and Boundaries Com- boasted  15 PhD holders and more as doormats and ladders by the politi- agenda in their respective constituen-
This is because, under Kenya’s elec- mission had to revoke the presidential than 130 MPs with master’s degrees – cal class. Two, the justice system must cies should be factored in too when
tions act, contestants for president, nomination papers of a candidate it would have been the best the country deal with forgery unambiguously. determining the quality of leadership.
senator and, governor seats must had previously cleared. It turned out had witnessed. But that was not the As the  Penal Code  states, forging a
show proof of a degree from a univer- he had not met the academic require- case. document or electronic record is an Whereas integrity, in terms of pre-
sity recognised in Kenya. Members ments. offence punishable by three years in senting academic credentials should
of parliament  resisted attempts  to The 12th parliament largely kow- prison. be overemphasised, Kenyans should
extend this requirement to them, That this had escaped the commis- towed to the political expedien- be more worried about a political
and the Kenyan High Court ruled in sion’s scrutiny is in itself worrying. cy of the executive and it was one Many cases, including those of culture whose consequence is fake
their favour. The importance of a reliable electoral where  political partisanship reigned politicians’  questionable academic leadership that overpromises and
commission is demonstrated by the supreme. For example, the parlia- qualifications, have not been dealt under-delivers. What should matter
It’s not just politicians that are fact that the 2017 presidential elec- ment failed to enact gender laws, with conclusively. most is the capability of the politician
under pressure to produce qualifi- tions were annulled by the Supreme which led to the  chief justice rec- Fake leadership to offer quality leadership and not ac-
cations.  Many public servants  have Court largely because of the  elec- ommending to the president that he The relationship between degrees ademic excellence.
used fake degrees in pursuit of job toral commission’s bungling of key dissolves parliament for failing to im- and  quality leadership  is one Ken-
opportunities or promotions. One processes. There are several points to plement its constitutional mandate of yans should debate as they head to *About the writer: Dr Maina wa
case involved a man who posed as a remember ahead of the elections in gender parity. the elections in August. The ranking Mutonya is a researcher in African
high-ranking police officer for over August 2022. and African diaspora studies at the
10 years. He hired and fired officers, Having said this, political actors National School of Anthropology
attended top security meetings and, One, the fixation on academic cre- and History in Mexico.
at least once, flew in a police helicop-
ter to a crime scene.

Even the vice-chancellor of a pub-
lic university has been questioned
over the validity of his PhD and the
awarding university.

As the 2022 elections approach,
Kenyans have  witnessed a circus of
politicians  waving certificates from
nondescript institutions or obtained
through dubious means. Institutions
may produce quality degrees but the
problem arises when politicians false-
ly claim to have earned them legiti-
mately.

The doubt around academic cre-
dentials of politicians who seek
leadership positions undermines the
integrity clause in Kenya’s 2010 con-
stitution. What counts in a politician
is not necessarily their level of educa-
tion but their morals and ethics.
What we can learn from the circus
The degree requirement was intended
to  enhance debate in the house  and
to have leaders who would balance
the roles of oversight, legislation and
representation.

The high court decided that mem-
bers of parliament need not have a
degree, but it’s mandatory for gover-

Page 50 Africa News NewsHawks

Issue 87, 1 July 2022

ULF ENGEL African Union’s Panel of the
Wise: An unfulfilled promise
IN the first years after its launch
in November 2007, the African The African Union building in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Union’s Panel of the Wise was an
important pillar of the African er, the panel was only installed  in headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethi- it isn’t the mediation arm of the tion more of an honorary one.
Peace and Security Architecture. November 2007. opia, or when travelling. They don’t continental body. Members of the Three, the emphasis on “respect-
get a salary. panel have been involved behind
The other pillars are the Peace The panel’s role is tosupport the What the panel has achieved the scenes in various situations, and ed African personalities” has led to
and Security Council, the Con- efforts of the Peace and Security In my view, the panel has had three supported official mediation teams. a situation where appointees tend
tinental Early Warning System, Council and those of the of the major achievements. to be quite old when they join the
the African Standby Force and the Commission, particularly in the This has mainly been done panel. The average age of the cur-
Peace Fund. area of conflict prevention. The first is agenda setting. The through “fact-finding, conciliation rent four members of the panel (a
first two panels (2007–2010 and and the facilitation of communica- member for the Southern Africa
The panel is an interesting but It is also required to advise the 2010–2013) framed important tion”, as noted in one of the few re- region still has to be nominated) at
small institution. Its neither a me- council and the chairperson of the themes for the African Union. This ports done on the panel. the time of appointment was nearly
diation organ nor a think tank, African Union Commission “on all included election-related disputes Hurdles 76 years.
but something in between and, in issues pertaining to the promotion and political violence (2010), wom- The Panel of the Wise faces three
principle, has lots of leeway. In the and maintenance of peace, security en and children in violent con- major challenges. The panel’s future
past, the panel has brought many and stability in Africa”. flict (2011), strengthening political Turning the Panel of the Wise into
important and complex conflict-re- governance in view of the 2011 The first relates to its positioning a proactive pillar of the African
lated topics to the agenda of the The panel can act at the request popular uprisings in North Africa within the African Union and the Union’s peace and security architec-
African Union. These include pro- of the council, chairperson or “at its and beyond (2011), and addressing way its financing works. The panel’s ture requires at least three steps.
posing measures to prevent political own initiative”. It can pronounce the nexus between transitional jus- secretariat is housed in the Political
violence and fight impunity. itself on any issue “relating to the tice and peace (2013). Affairs, Peace and Security Depart- First, provide it with indepen-
promotion and maintenance of ment (previously called Peace and dent funding.
The terms of office of the five peace, security and stability in Af- The second achievement has Security). This has affected its in-
members of the panel expired in rica”. been in institutionalisation and dependent status. Members of the Second, beef up the secretariat’s
mid-2020. It was inactive until Feb- networking. An example is the Net- panel depend on the goodwill of the human resources so that it can pro-
ruary 2022 when a fifth panel was It reports to the African Union work of African Women in Conflict Peace and Security Commissioner vide services beyond simple travel
appointed during the 35th African Assembly through the Peace and Prevention and Mediation, or Fem- to do their work. logistics.
Union Assembly of Heads of State Security Council. Wise-Africa, which was  set up in
and Government. July 2017. Addiitonally, the panel doesn’t Third, the panel needs to develop
Members of the panel are: Five have a budget, which means it has a strategic agenda with a focus on
This relaunch, with an inaugural highly respected African personal- The network has attracted fund- to ask for assistance each time it framing important challenges and
meeting on 29 March 2022, raised ities from various segments of so- ing from the donor community, but wants to engage with a situation on possible policy responses to Afri-
expectations that the panel could ciety who have made outstanding the COVID-19 pandemic set back its own terms. In the past, funding ca’s peace and security landscape. It
again become a proactive force of contribution to the cause of peace, its progress. It has, however,  re- for specific missions was sometimes must not get lost in ad hoc activ-
the African Peace and Security Ar- security and development on the sumed trainings to bolster women’s simply denied. As a result, the third ities without visibility or strategic
chitecture. continent". participation in diplomacy and me- and fourth panels (2014–2017 and aim. The panel’s inaugural meeting
diation efforts. There are 500 mem- 2017–2020) were more or less side- bodes well in this respect.
Having worked, between 2006 They are nominated by the five bers waiting to be deployed in medi- lined and achieved very little.
and 2019, as an advisor to the African regions — West, North, ation efforts. The third achievement — The Conversation.
union’s peace and security depart- East, Central and Southern Africa has been in enhancing the union’s Two, some appointees dropped
ment on early warning, conflict — and appointed by the assembly mediation capacities, even though out as active members of the panel *About the writer: Ulf Engel is
prevention and preventative diplo- to serve for a period of three years, because they considered the posi- professor at the Institute of Afri-
macy, I consider reinvigorating the renewable once. can Studies, University of Leipzig,
panel an important indicator for Germany.
the African Union’s future in meet- Members receive an allowance
ing the challenge  of silencing the when meeting at the African Union
guns in Africa by 2030. This is a key
union initiative that aims to end all
wars, conflicts and gender-based vi-
olence, and prevent genocide for a
peaceful continent.

The question is whether the
union has the strategic vision and
political will to revive an important
institution and make best use of it.
Origins
Efforts to promote peace across the
continent go back to the earliest
days of the African Union’s prede-
cessor, the Organisation of African
Unity. In 1964, the organisation in-
stalled a Commission of Mediation,
Conciliation and Arbitration.

However, it was never institution-
alised. Rather, a variety of informal
ad hoc peacemaking practices were
developed to be executed by Afri-
can heads of state and government.
These were never operationalised.

In 1991, in rethinking how it ad-
dresses violent conflict, the organi-
sation suggested creating an Africa’s
Elders Council for Peace. This was
based on traditional conflict resolu-
tion practices in many African soci-
eties – or at least their idealisation.

Regional economic commu-
nities, for instance the Econom-
ic Community of West African
States,  followed suit. It made the
Council of Elders part of its peace
and security architecture.

When the African Union came
into being in 2002, those designing
the revamped continental body had
these experiences in mind. Howev-

NewsHawks World News Page 51

Issue 87, 1 July 2022

VLADISLAV ZUBOK Can Putin survive? neurs hollowed out the state’s eco-
nomic assets and exported valuable
ON MAY 9 2022, a column of tanks The lessons of the Soviet collapse resources for dollars while paying tax-
and artillery thundered down Mos- es in rubles. They siphoned revenues
cow’s Red Square. Soviet collapse, managing to avoid hope for such a quick, decisive vic- Russian President Vladimir Putin. to offshore sites, paving the way for
the financial chaos that doomed the tory. They will have to deal with an est in coveted foreign goods, travel, oligarchic kleptocracy. Commercial
Over 10 000 soldiers marched Soviet state despite intense sanctions. authoritarian Russia, however weak- and Western popular culture. And banks quickly learned ingenious ways
through the city’s streets. It was Rus- Russia today features a very different ened, for the foreseeable future. the Soviet imperial project certainly to milk the Soviet state, leading the
sia’s 27th annual Victory Day parade, combination of resilience and vulner- Creative destruction faced discontent and disdain from in- central bank to print more and more
in which the country commemorates ability than the one that characterized In the United States and Europe, ternal ethnic minorities. rubles to cover the commercial banks’
the Soviet Union’s triumph over Nazi the late-era Soviet Union. This histo- many experts assume that the collapse financial obligations as the govern-
Germany in World War II. Russian ry matters because in thinking about of the Soviet Union was preordained. Yet these were not new problems, ment deficit expanded. In 1986 and
President Vladimir Putin, presiding the war in Ukraine and its aftermath, In this narrative, the Soviet Union and by themselves, they were not 1987, as vodka sales and oil prices fell
over the ceremonies, gave a speech the West should avoid projecting its had long been fossilized economically enough to rapidly force the Com- and the country reeled in the wake of
praising his country’s military and misconceptions about the Soviet col- and ideologically, its military overex- munist Party out of power at the end the  Chernobyl  nuclear disaster, the
fortitude. “The defense of our moth- lapse onto present-day Russia. tended. It took time for the economic of the 1980s. In China, communist Ministry of Finance printed only 3.9
erland when its destiny was at stake flaws and internal contradictions to leaders faced a similar set of crises at billion and 5.9 billion rubles, respec-
has always been sacred,” he said. “We The Soviet Union did not collapse tear the state apart, but as the West roughly the same time, but they re- tively. But in 1988 and 1989, when
will never give up.” Putin was speak- for the reasons Westerners like to increased pressure on the Kremlin sponded to rising discontent by lib- Gorbachev’s reforms were enacted,
ing about the past but also about the point to. through military buildups, the coun- eralizing the Chinese economy while the injections of ruble liquidity in-
present, with a clear message to the try began to buckle. And as national using force to put down mass protests. creased to 11.7 billion and then to
rest of the world: Russia is deter- But that does not mean the West self-determination movements in the This combination — capitalism with- 18.3 billion.
mined to continue prosecuting its is helpless in shaping Russia’s future. constituent republics gained steam, it out democracy — worked, and the
war against Ukraine. Putin’s regime is more stable than began to break. Gorbachev’s attempts leaders of the Chinese Communist It took decades for tens of millions
Gorbachev’s was, but if the West can at liberalization, well intentioned as Party now rule cynically and profit of former Soviet citizens to develop
The war looks very different in Pu- stay unified, it may still be able to they were, could not save a dying sys- from state capitalism while posing postimperial identities.
tin’s telling than it does to the West. It slowly undermine the Russian pres- tem. under portraits of Karl Marx, Vladi-
is just and courageous. It is successful. ident’s power. Putin grossly  miscal- mir Lenin, and Mao Zedong. Other Gorbachev and other reformers
“Our warriors of different ethnicities culated by invading Ukraine, and in There is some truth to this story. communist regimes, such as the one plowed ahead anyway. The Soviet
are fighting together, shielding each doing so he has exposed the regime’s The Soviet Union could never suc- in Vietnam, made similar transitions. leader delegated more political and
other from bullets and shrapnel like vulnerabilities — an economy that cessfully compete militarily or tech- economic authority to the 15 repub-
brothers,” Putin said. Russia’s ene- is much more interdependent with nologically with the United States In reality, the Soviet Union was de- lics that constituted the union. He
mies had tried to use “international Western economies than its Soviet and its allies. Soviet leaders performed stroyed not so much by its structural removed the Communist Party from
terrorist gangs” against the country, predecessor ever was and a highly Sisyphean labor to catch up with faults as by the Gorbachev-era re- governance and authorized elections
but they had “failed completely.” In concentrated political system that the West, but their country always forms themselves. As the economists in each of the republics for councils
reality, of course, Russian troops have lacks the tools for political and mil- lagged behind. On the battlefield of Michael Bernstam, Michael Ellman, vested with legislative and constitu-
been met by fierce local resistance itary mobilization possessed by the ideas and images, Western freedom and Vladimir Kontorovich have all tional authority. Gorbachev’s design
rather than outpourings of support, Communist Party. If the war grinds and prosperity did help accelerate argued, perestroika unleashed entre- was well meaning, yet it magnified
and they were  unable  to seize Kyiv on, Russia will become a less power- the demise of communist ideology, preneurial energy but not in a way economic chaos and financial de-
and depose Ukraine’s government. ful international actor. A prolonged as younger Soviet elites lost faith in that created a new market economy stabilization. Russia and the other
But for Putin, victory may be the invasion may even lead to the kind of communism and gained a keen inter- and filled shelves for Soviet consum- republics withheld two-thirds of the
only publicly acceptable result. No chaos that brought down the Soviet ers. revenues that were supposed to go to
alternate outcomes are openly dis- Union. But Western leaders cannot the federal budget, forcing the Soviet
cussed in Russia. Instead, the energy turned out to finance ministry to print 28.4 billion
be destructive. Soviet-style entrepre- rubles in 1990. The Soviet ruling
They are, however, discussed in class, meanwhile, decomposed into
the West, which has been near jubi- ethnic clans: the communist elites
lant about Ukraine’s success. Russia’s in the various republics — Kazakhs,
military setbacks have reinvigorated Lithuanians, Ukrainians, and others
the transatlantic alliance and, for a — began to identify more with their
moment, made Moscow look like a “nations” than with the imperial cen-
kleptocratic third-rate power. Many ter. Nationalist separatism rose like a
policymakers and analysts are now flood.
dreaming that the conflict could ul-
timately end not just in a Ukrainian The change of heart was particular-
victory; they are hoping Putin’s re- ly striking in the case of the Russians.
gime will suffer the same fate as the During World War II, the Russians
Soviet Union: collapse. This hope had done most of the fighting on be-
is evident in the many articles and half of the Soviet Union, and many in
speeches drawing comparisons be- the West saw the communist empire
tween the Soviet Union’s disastrous as a mere extension of Russia. But in
war in Afghanistan and Russia’s in- 1990–91, it was primarily tens of mil-
vasion of Ukraine. It appears to be a lions of Russians, led by Boris Yeltsin,
latent motivation for the harsh sanc- who tore down the Soviet state. They
tions imposed on Russia, and it un- were an eclectic group, including
derlines all the recent talk of the dem- liberal-minded intellectuals from
ocratic world’s new unity. The war, Moscow, provincial Russian appa-
the logic goes, will sap public support ratchiks, and even KGB and military
for the Kremlin as losses mount and officers. What united them was their
sanctions destroy the Russian econo- rejection of Gorbachev and his failing
my. Cut off from access to Western governance. The Soviet leader’s per-
goods, markets, and culture, both ceived weakness, in turn, prompted
elites and ordinary Russians will grow an attempted coup in August 1991.
increasingly fed up with Putin, per- The organizers put Gorbachev un-
haps taking to the streets to demand der house arrest and sent tanks into
a better future. Eventually, Putin and Moscow in hopes of shocking people
his regime may be shunted aside in into submission, but they failed on
either a coup or a wave of mass pro- both fronts. Instead, they hesitated
tests. to use brutal force and inspired mass
protests against the Kremlin’s con-
This thinking is based on a faulty trol. What followed was the self-de-
reading of history. The Soviet Union struction of the Soviet Union’s power
did not collapse for the reasons West- structures. Yeltsin pushed Gorbachev
erners like to point to: a humiliating aside, banned the Communist Party,
defeat in  Afghanistan, military pres- and acted as a sovereign ruler. On De-
sure from the United States and Eu- cember 8, 1991, Yeltsin and the lead-
rope, nationalistic tensions in its con- ers of Belarus and Ukraine declared
stituent republics, and the siren song that the Soviet Union had “ceased to
of democracy. In reality, it was mis- exist as a subject of international law
guided Soviet economic policies and and geopolitical reality.”
a series of political missteps by Soviet
leader Mikhail Gorbachev that caused But without Yeltsin’s declaration,
the country to self-destruct. And Pu- the Soviet Union might have sol-
tin has learned a great deal from the diered on. Even after it ceased to

Page 52 World News NewsHawks

Issue 87, 1 July 2022

formally exist, the empire continued
to live for years as a common ruble
zone with no borders and customs.
Post-Soviet states lacked financial in-
dependence. Even after national inde-
pendence referendums, followed by
celebrations of newfound freedom, it
took decades for tens of millions of
former Soviet citizens outside Russia
to develop postimperial identities, to
think and act like citizens of Belarus,
Ukraine, and the other new states. In
this sense, the Soviet Union proved to
be more resilient than brittle. It was
no different from other empires in
that it took decades, not months, to
disintegrate.

Learning from the past expanding Russia’s military and ar- by Russian companies and other ex- Russians — from Facebook to Netflix ed punishments, such as hefty fines.
Putin is deeply familiar with this his- mament industry, and paying off the porters (including revenue made in to Zoom — are suddenly unavail- And the Russian state is aggressively
tory. The Russian president once de- head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, dollars) had to be sold to the central able. Russians cannot upgrade their pushing to control its people’s minds.
clared that “the demise of the Soviet and his paramilitary — another pillar bank. MacBooks or iPhones. It has become In the first days after the invasion,
Union was the greatest geopolitical of the Kremlin’s dictatorship. extremely hard for them to get visas Russia’s legislature passed laws crim-
catastrophe” of the twentieth century, It banned Russian citizens from to enter the United Kingdom or the inalizing open discussion and the
and he has structured his regime to Putin energetically worked to fig- wiring more than US$10 000 abroad European Union, and even if they dissemination of information about
avoid the same fate. He recognized ure out how Russia could thrive un- per month, quashing the panicky succeed, there are no direct flights or the war. The government forced the
that Marx and Lenin were wrong der global capitalism. rush to convert rubles to dollars, trains that can take them there. They country’s independent news outlets
about economics, and he energetical- and the Russian currency eventually can no longer use their credit cards to shut down.
ly worked to figure out how Russia When Putin decided to  invade bounced all the way back to pre-in- abroad or pay for foreign goods and
could survive and thrive under glob- Ukraine earlier this year, he believed vasion levels. Had Gorbachev been services. For the country’s cosmopol- But these are just the most visible
al capitalism. He brought in capable Russia’s large reserves would allow the assisted by such expertise, the Soviet itans, Russia’s invasion has made life tools of Putin’s system of control.
economists and made macro-eco- country to ride out whatever sanc- Union might have survived. quite difficult. Like many other authoritarians, the
nomic stability and having a balanced tions resulted. But the West’s finan- Russian president has also learned to
budget among his top priorities. cial response was far harsher than he Russia’s entrepreneurs, meanwhile, At first glance, this might seem to exploit economic inequality to estab-
During the first decade of his rule, expected — even ardent anti-Russian are learning how to adapt to their bode ill for Putin. During the Sovi- lish a firm base of support, leaning
soaring oil prices filled Russia’s cof- hawks in the West were surprised. new reality. Many of the front doors et political crisis of 1990–91, mem- into the differences between what the
fers, and Putin quickly finished pay- The West and its allies cut off a num- to the international economy have bers of the middle and upper classes Russian scholar Natalya Zubarevich
ing back the US$130 billion in debt ber of major Russian banks from shut, but Russia’s businesspeople — played a huge role in bringing about calls “the four Russias.” The first Rus-
Russia owed to Western banks. He SWIFT, the international payment including those who run its arms the collapse of the state. Hundreds of sia consists of urbanites in large cities,
kept future debts to a minimum, and clearing network, and froze US$400 industry — know how to use back- thousands of educated Soviets rallied many of whom work in the postin-
his government began to accumulate billion in Russian international re- doors to find what they need. Russian in the main squares of Moscow and dustrial economy and are culturally
reserves in foreign currency and gold. serves that were physically stored in businesses also still enjoy legal access St. Petersburg, demanding change. A connected to the West.
Those precautions paid off during the G-7 countries. Washington and its to multiple major economies, includ- new Russian elite, one that embraced
global financial crisis of 2008, when allies also blocked a host of manufac- ing those of China and India, both of nationalism and cast itself in opposi- They are the source of most oppo-
Russia was able to comfortably bail turing companies from working with which remain willing to do business tion to the Soviet old guard, gained sition to Putin, and they have staged
out corporations vital to its economy the Russian government or Russian with Russia. There is little economic power after elections held in 1990. protests against the president before.
(all of which were run by Putin’s as- businesses. Over 700 Western man- reason for them not to: the strength The country’s knowledge workers But they constitute just one-fifth of
sociates). ufacturing and retail corporations of the ruble makes it profitable to buy and intelligentsia teamed up with this the population, by Zubarevich’s esti-
walked out of Russia on their own, Russian energy and other materials at new elite to help bring the empire mate. The other three Russias are the
After Putin annexed  Crimea  in shamed by public opinion in their a discount. The Russian government down. residents of poorer industrial cities,
2014, the United States imposed home countries. Large internation- can then tax these profits and enforce who are nostalgic for the Soviet past;
sanctions on Russian oil and other in- al transportation and financial firms their conversion to rubles, further But Gorbachev tolerated, and people who live in declining rural
dustries, and oil prices plummeted as and intermediaries stopped working maintaining the country’s solvency. arguably encouraged, such political towns; and multiethnic non-Russians
much as they did under Gorbachev. with companies linked to Moscow. In the short term, then, it is unlikely activism. Putin does not. Unlike Gor- in the North Caucasus (including
But the Russian government reacted The decoupling is unlike anything that the West’s harsh sanctions will bachev, who allowed opponents to Chechnya) and southern Siberia. The
skillfully. Under the leadership of the world has seen since the block- kill the ruble and force the Kremlin contest elections, Putin has worked to inhabitants of those three Russias
Central Bank Chair Elvira Nabiulli- ades of Germany and Japan during to yield. prevent any Russians from emerging overwhelmingly support Putin be-
na and Finance Minister Anton Si- World War II. Divide and conquer as credible threats — most recently, cause they depend on subsidies from
luanov, the government allowed the Western penalties may not be shifting by poisoning the opposition leader the state and because they adhere to
ruble to devalue, restoring macroeco- In the West, these actions were met Moscow’s thinking. But they are un- Alexei Navalny in August 2020 and traditional values when it comes to
nomic stability. After a brief dip, the with euphoria. Pundits declared that mistakably hurting parts of Russia’s then arresting him a year later. There hierarchy, religion, and worldview —
Russian economy rebounded. Even Russia’s currency would collapse and population: namely, the country’s have been no demonstrations against the kinds of cultural positions that
during the Covid-19 pandemic, the that there would be broad protests. elites and the urban middle class. the war on the scale that Gorbachev Putin has championed in the Krem-
country maintained strict fiscal dis- Some even speculated that Putin Governments, universities, and other allowed, thanks in no small part to lin’s imperialist and nationalist propa-
cipline. While Western states printed could be toppled. But none of those institutions around the world have the ruthless efficiency of Russia’s se- ganda, which has gone into overdrive
trillions of dollars to subsidize their scenarios came to pass. The ruble did canceled thousands of scientific and curity services. The enforcers of Pu- since the invasion of Ukraine began.
economies, Russia increased its bud- initially tank, but Nabiullina and Si- scholarly projects with Russian re- tin’s police state have the power and
get surplus.  The government’s econ- luanov acted quickly to save it. The searchers. Services that were woven the skills needed to suppress any Putin, then, doesn’t need to engage
omists “are holier than the Pope in Russian state suspended the curren- into the lives of many white-collar street protests, including through in- in mass repression to keep himself in
applying” the approach advocated cy’s free convertibility and decreed timidation, arrests, and other assort- command. Indeed, recognizing the
by the International Monetary Fund, that 80% of the oil revenue made seeming futility of opposing the state,
said Dmitry Nekrasov, a former Rus-
sian state economist. “During the last
ten years there has been no country in
the world that would have conducted
such a consistent, conservative, and
hard-principled policy drawn on [a]
liberal model of macroeconomics.”
By 2022, Putin’s state had accumu-
lated more than US$600 billion in
financial reserves, one of the largest
stashes in the world.

But for Putin, the primary purpose
of this sound financial policymaking
was not to earn international plau-
dits or even to help ordinary Rus-
sians keep their savings. The point
was to bolster his power. Putin used
the accumulated reserves to restore
the sinews of the authoritarian state
by building up the security services,

NewsHawks World News Page 53

Issue 87, 1 July 2022

many members of the first Russia foreign-made parts. The Russian mil- regime. will be implemented and internalized likely to happen in Eastern Siberia
who are truly fed up with Putin are itary-industrial complex may contin- But the West appears prepared to by other actors in the global econo- and the mid-Volga, oil-producing
simply fleeing the country — a devel- ue to go on unimpeded for now, but my. States and companies outside regions that could find themselves
opment that Putin openly supports. it, too, will eventually face shortages. keep going. One day before Putin the West will grow more concerned forced to give ever-larger shares of
He has declared their departure to In the past, Western companies con- celebrated Victory Day, the G-7 lead- about secondary sanctions. Some of shrinking profits to the Kremlin.
be “a natural and necessary self-puri- tinued to supply Russian arms man- ers issued a declaration in support of the businesses may even worry about
fication of (Russian) society” from a ufacturers, even after Russia annexed Ukraine in which they recognized the their reputations. The Chinese tele- Still, even a much weaker Rus-
pro-Western “fifth column.”  Crimea. Now, if for ethical reasons country as an ally of the West and communications giant Huawei has sia is not destined to suffer a Soviet
alone, they won’t. pledged financial support, a steady already suspended new contracts Union–style breakup. National sep-
And so far, the invasion has done supply of arms, access to Nato in- with Russia. Indian firms that indi- aratism is not nearly as much of a
little to erode his support among the The Russian energy sector has telligence, and, critically, continued cated a readiness to buy Russian oil at threat to present-day Russia, where
other three Russias. Most members largely escaped the penalties, and as economic pressure on Russia. The a 30 percent discount are now under roughly 80 percent of the country’s
of those groups do not feel connect- prices soar, it is making more money key of the declaration was, indeed, intense pressure to back off. Only a citizens consider themselves to be
ed to the global economy, and they on exports than it did before the war. an announcement that they would hardcore determinist can believe that ethnic Russians, as it was to the Sovi-
are therefore relatively unbothered work toward “Russia’s isolation across in 1991, there were no alternatives to et Union. Moscow’s strong repressive
by Russia’s excommunication by But eventually, energy output will all sectors of its economy.” It echoes the Soviet collapse. institutions could also ensure that
the West via sanctions and bans. To also deteriorate, and the energy sec- what Ursula von der Leyen, the head Russia does not experience regime
maintain these groups’ support, Pu- tor, too, will need spare parts and of the European Commission, de- If the sanctions regime does drag change, or at least not the same kind
tin can continue to subsidize some technological upgrades that only the scribed as the EU’s goals: to stop Rus- on and becomes institutionalized, the of regime change that took place in
regions and pour billions into infra- West can properly offer. sian banks “from operating world- West may yet succeed in undermin- 1991. And Russians, even if they turn
structure and construction projects in wide,” to “effectively block Russian ing Putin’s system. Moscow’s talented against the war, would probably not
others. The Russian authorities have ad- exports and imports,” and to “make it economists will eventually become go on another rampage to destroy
mitted that the country’s oil output impossible for the [Russian] Central unable to shield the country from their own state.
He can also appeal to their con- declined by 7.5% in March and may Bank to liquidate its assets.” devastating macroeconomic impacts.
servative and nostalgic sentiments go down to levels not seen since Even with trillions of dollars in in- The West should nonetheless stay
— something Gorbachev could never 2003. Selling energy is likely to be- It won’t be easy to maintain this vestment in infrastructure projects or the course. The sanctions will gradu-
do. Russia’s turbulent history has led come a problem as well, especially if level of unity, nor will it be easy to other stimulus measures, the Russian ally drain Russia’s war chest and, with
most of its people to want a strong the European Union can wean itself expand the pressure to more of Rus- state will be unable to overcome the it, the country’s capacity to fight.
leader and consolidation of the coun- from Russian oil and gas. sia’s sectors—such as by instituting an effects of exclusion as the costs of Facing mounting battlefield setbacks,
try — not democracy, civil rights, EU embargo on Russian oil and gas. these projects, especially with the ac- the Kremlin may agree to an uneasy
and national self-determination. Putin denies that this will happen. Several countries, including Hun- companying corruption, balloon. armistice.
Gorbachev, however, was no strong- At a meeting with the heads of the gary (whose prime minister, Viktor
man. The Soviet leader was driven energy corporations, he referred to Orban, remains one of Putin’s few Without foreign know-how, the ef- But the West must also stay real-
by an extraordinarily idealistic vision Western sanctions as “chaotic” and friends in Europe) as well as Germa- ficiency of producing Russian goods istic. Only a hardcore determinist
and refused to use force to maintain asserted that they would hurt West- ny and Italy, are aware that an energy and their quality will return to where can believe that in 1991, there were
his empire. ern economies and consumers more embargo would deal a huge blow to they were in the early 1990s. The no alternatives to the Soviet collapse.
than Russians because of inflation. their economies. And even if Europe three Russias dependent on the state In fact, a much more logical path for
He mobilized the most progressive He even spoke about Europe’s “eco- does institute an energy ban, it will for their livelihoods will then acutely the Soviet state would have been con-
groups of Russian society, above all nomic suicide” and promised to stay not lead to an immediate crisis in feel their country’s growing weakness tinued authoritarianism combined
the intelligentsia and urban profes- ahead of the West’s anti-Russian ac- Russia. and isolation in a way that, for now, with radical market liberalization
sionals, to help him yank the Soviet tions. He has also convinced himself they do not. and prosperity for select groups —
Union out of its isolation, stagnation, that the West no longer calls the shots The Soviet Union, after all, expe- not unlike the road China has taken.
and conservative moorings. But in in the global economy, given the rienced a drastic drop in oil revenues People may even struggle to put Similarly, it would be deterministic
doing so, he lost the support of the world’s increasing multipolarity. in the late 1980s, but that is not what food on the table. This would all se- for the West to expect that a weak-
rest of Russia and was forced out of bankrupted the country. It was, in- riously undermine Putin’s story: that ened Russia would fall. There will at
office, leaving behind a legacy of eco- He is not alone; even Russian stead, Gorbachev’s loss of control he is the essential leader of a “sover- least be a period in which Ukraine
nomic crisis, statelessness, chaos, and economists who oppose Putin are over the central bank, the ruble, and eign and great Russia,” which has “ris- and the West have to coexist with a
secession. convinced that as long as the coun- the country’s fiscal mechanisms.  en from its knees” under his tenure. weakened and humiliated but still
try’s finances are in good shape, the autocratic Russian state. Western
The life expectancy of Russians rest of the world — including some As long as Putin retains power over In the long term, it is possible to policymakers must prepare for this
dropped from 69 years in 1990 to Western companies, traders, and in- these assets and follows professional imagine this seriously weakening the eventuality rather than dreaming of
64.5 years in 1994; for males, the termediaries — will risk violating the advice, a fall in energy profits will Russian state. collapse in Moscow.
plunge was from 64 years down to 58 sanctions to do business with Russia. not undermine the resilience of his
years. Russia’s population declined, As the global economy sags under the regime. Separatism could rise or return to — Foreign Affairs.
and the country faced food shortages. weight of the war and as internation- some regions, such as Chechnya, if
It is no wonder that so many Russians al shock over the invasion fades, they But if the West is serious about the Kremlin stops paying their resi- *About the writer: Vladislav
wanted a strongman like Putin, who believe that Russia’s relationship with stopping Putin, it will have to try dents’ bills. Tensions will generally Zubov is professor of international
promised to protect them from a hos- the world will return to normal, just to keep up the pressure anyway. grow between Moscow — where history at the London School of Eco-
tile world and to restore the Russian as it did after 2014. The longer the sanctions go on and money is amassed — and the indus- nomics and the author of Collapse:
empire. In the weeks after the inva- the harsher they grow, the more the trial cities and regions that depend The Fall of the Soviet Union.
sion of Ukraine, the Russian people’s A fall in energy profits will not West’s anti-Russian economic regime on imports and exports. This is most
knee-jerk reaction was to rally around undermine the resilience of Putin’s
the tsar, not to accuse him of unpro-
voked aggression.
Under pressure
None of this bodes well for Western-
ers who want Putin’s system to fall
— or for the Ukrainians fighting to
defeat the Russian military machine.
But even though the Soviet Union’s
collapse may not offer a preview of
Russia’s trajectory, that doesn’t mean
the West’s actions will have no im-
pact on the country’s future. There
is a consensus among both Western
and savvy Russian economists that
in the long term, the sanctions will
cause Russia’s economy to shrink as
supply chain disruptions mount. The
country’s transportation and com-
munications industries are especially
vulnerable.

Russia’s passenger aircraft, fastest
trains, and most of its automobiles
are made in the West, and they are
now cut off from the companies
that know how to service and main-
tain them. Even official government
statistics indicate that the assembly
of new cars in Russia has fallen pre-
cipitously — at least partly because
Russian factories are cut off from

Porsche just got angrier Being a Fashion Model

&Life Style

STYLE TRAVEL BOOKS ARTS MOTORING

Page 54 Issue 87, 1 July 2022

No more nostalgia as ‘real’ radio returns

JONATHAN MBIRIYAMVEKA

THE more mature Zimbabwean radio Otis Fraser. And from 3pm to 6pm Comfort ‘Mbofs’ world with our streaming numbers show- “As you know, Capitalk 100.4FM is
listeners are often overcome with nostalgia nostalgia as how listeners used to enjoy Mbofana takes over. We are introducing ing countries like UAE, Australia and even great on intelligent talk during the week,
when they talk about the years gone by. radio with less talk,” she said.  “Legends Otis the Flow on our 9 to 12 slot. Otis Brazil. We aim to improve our offering ev- but we turn up on Fridays,” she said.
Sunday is going to play host to legend- will take you down memory lane but will ery time.”
“When radio was still radio, and real” ary DJs from 9am to 6pm. We received bring new-school adult contemporary. He “We are very excited about the part-
is a common statement among older folk massive support from 12midday to 3pm will host DJs in the United States and in According to Makombe, the idea is to nership with Flowtyme radio. Otis doesn’t
who were raised on the repertoires of some with Kelvin ‘Soul Supreme’ Sifelani who the region. We have Hararians all over the give the audiences a radio experience, with talk much, but he lets his music do the
of the finest DJs this country has ever pro- hosts his show from the United Kingdom. feel-good music and top-shelf deejaying. most.”
duced.

Classic selections, excellent presenta-
tions and endless music – this is how this
generation used to know their radio!

Things have long changed.
Nowadays, radio stations mute music
while chasing hot topics on socials.
It appears radio is now all about (cheap)
talk?
Ask the older generation, they will
agree with this view.
Well, there is however some good news
for such folk.
Capitalk 100.4FM, in collaboration
with Floytymeradio.com, are premiering
this Sunday what should be the most an-
ticipated radio show between 9am and
noon. Some of the biggest names in Zim-
babwean radio will feature in what prom-
ises to be a massive project.
This is a colossal collaboration of
groundbreaking proportions between the
best in talk, Capitalk 100.4FM, the pulse
of the city and the best in mix Flowty-
meradio.com.
“Feel The Flow is happening begin-
ning this Sunday July the 3rd from 9am
- 12noon, the show entitled The Sunday
Flowtyme Radio Takeover, will feature the
Legendary Lion King of DJ's, Otis The
Flow,  Debonair Dressing DJ, Donald
The Main Attraction broadcasting from
the Flowtyme Radio studios in New Jersey
USA and a different FlowJ every week,”
said Donald, one of the DJs on the billing.
“This show will be quite like no oth-
er 'cause it's mainly focused on bringing
back real radio to the music lovers of Ha-
rare and beyond, with listenership num-
bers on a decline because of radio being
so mundane, this is the pick-me-up that
Capitalk wanted to bring to its valued lis-
teners. FlowtymeRadio.com  will resusci-
tate Sunday mornings to deliver a world-
class show full of personality, legendary
mixes from the genres of but not limited
to Afrobeats, house, dancehall, soul, hip
hop/R'n'B, mid-tempo and Amapiano.
Now being the world's first 24/7 mixtape
radio station, everything will be in the
mix, so get ready to be mesmerised, your
Sunday mornings will get a major musi-
cal upgrade to your listening experience,
tell your friends that Capitalk 100.4 the
heartbeat of Harare and Flowtymeradio.
com,  Feel The Flow are bringing real Ra-
dio back.”
Nyaradzo Makombe, the Capitalk
100.4FM station manager, said it was
time to bring back the iconic era of radio
in Zimbabwe.
“Legends Sunday was born out of

NewsHawks Poetry Corner Page 55

Issue 87, 1 July 2022

Title: How She Felt At That Moment as the drums keep blowing For in pursuing its demands and gratifying
Poet: Ndaba Sibanda To give a people hope, it; My soul was on the losing end -
& strength to master their fears, Carry me to where my putrefying corpse
As poetry became her cozy pal, muster their collective energies, lies!
she sat on a reed mat and read to unravel the waters from the pit that holds it, ************************************************
poetry that taught her to navigate and allow the same to burst its banks- Title: A Drought In The Making.
the mysteries of memory and verses, 2023 a year to flood the plains! Poet: WekwaChiyangwa
she embarked on a journey of action, The Tonga drums bugles blow to rejuvenate a
motivation, meditation and reflection, nation, A glaring mid-afternoon sun
she caressed its coils, curves and cries, a trend setter in a polarized lake! Lonely in the clear blue of bored mid-Octo-
and learned to shriek with a smiling face, ber sky
the expedition was indeed an inspiration, ZAMBEZI VALLEY ENCLAVE (a collection of Where no speck nor flimsy wisp of wander-
it was more than idealistic, it was spiritual, protest pieces) ing cloud lingers
it was as titillating, thrilling as a thorny trance. ***************************************************** No daring bird flies aft of sky's naked blue
As poetry became her cozy, lazy pal, belly
she sat on a reed mat and read poetry Title: Untitled A shimmering sky-blue of substantial noth-
that sought to give her power and peace, Poet: Jurgen Namupira ingness floating above receptive earth
titled A Mate On The Mat, the read really Who cowers submissively beneath sharp
romanced her, got her raving and riveted, In the making of days, prodding beams of unparalleled ferocity
those pieces of poetry perfectly pickled, pulled, History is written. glowering at her acute vulnerability
pushed, patted, prodded and played with her, With every second, Writhing and fretting at the rays spearing
she plunged into the magnetism of poetry, Memories are created. down on her exposed nudity
and tapped into its metaphors and melodies Take my pen, Intense heat!
that taught her to touch the lives of others, Hold it firmly A monumental tragedy in the making
to touch them with a magnitude of repair, I leave you with this task. Tormented earth sheds tears plain and
not despair, to help them embark on a trip Daughter of the land, tears bloody
to a healing heading, hope and happiness, Africa sits within you - As gaunt trees whose once gallant boughs
it was as titillating, thrilling as a thorny trance. Take the pen, are now bent double mourn their imminent
She sat on a reed mat and read poetry Find your paper demise
that cuddled, cared ,consoled crying souls, To write the story of home. Hoping that one day soon sky will allow
poetry that professed love and liveliness, Tell them - Those to come after us, cloud to blot these angry rays of unshielded
that replaced hurt ,hopelessness with hope, Of the glory of home sun; And block her intensity from suckling
despair ,damage with poise and progress, Africa! Compose a song, the ground dry of the little moisture that
yet she claimed she could never say With lyrics so artistic - sits tentatively and nervously on the dull
enough about how she felt at that moment. To speak loud in their silence. greyness of dying leaves and aging brown
She sat on a reed mat and read and read When your book is written, grass early every morning
vivacious verses on the splendor of pebbles Hand it over to your offspring. Assured of their fate in the cauldron of heat
that played no victim , but victors of settings, Encourage them to read, that assails them from the onset of sunrise
her vision converted into a lovely innovation, This is your story, The fruit-laden trees are also worried about
her meditation transformed into inventions You are Africa relentless heat
of love, and she claimed she could never say And Africa is home, They shiver and wither and shrink and
enough about how she felt at that moment. To you, And so shall it be for them. shrivel at the stare of each blistering beam
***************************************************** ***************************************************** of offensive sun
Title: Buntibe Criss-crossing the depleted spine of dis-
Poet: Temba Munsaka Title: Unorthodox Pleasure gruntled earth are yawning strips of forlorn
Poet: Justice Mfiri rivers dry and coughing
The echoes reverberate across the great ex- Sick looking streams whose beds are dry
panse, the Tonga drums incessant, Carry me to where my putrefying corpse lies: caked and hugely cracked
whirr and pound in tandem, For dead I became when I chose this servitude Ugly festering wounds that only a generous
flukes and horns crescendo pitch, Enlisted to the lustful desires of human flesh flow of consistently unhindered and liberat-
Harbinger, they are! They bugle in unison, Carry me to where my corpse lies ed rainfall can heal
to chart new course-to redirect the flow! That I may experience the displeasure Dry veins holding on to slippery life with
They blow none-stop, a rallying call to action Of looking death in the eyes their last ounces of strength
To awaken the lands from the slumber. Where it follows shameful secrets of the night Precarious sights of random meander drip-
Time for parley is past, they won’t stop- Carry me there that I may curse my cravings ping pitiful saliva at the remnants of river
no expostulation in sight! And take a screenshot of heaven's displeasure life that litter their pathetic beds
Recapitulation not an option, Of man's craving for unconventional pleasure A catastrophic drought is in the making
as masses are reoriented, Carry me now! In an ancient village whose other wounds
to decipher the sound of the drums! I choose to dig my own grave today are far from mending
The trestles that hold water across the lake Bury this old self and never see it again
shake, the core uprooted,

Page 56 People & Places NewsHawks

Issue 87, 1 July 2022

Zimbabweans attending US July 4 Independence
celebrations at the country's embassy in Harare

NewsHawks Sport Page 57
impressed at school level.
Issue 87, 1 July 2022 Zimbabwe ‘confident’
at Rugby World Cup Dawson’s squad selection for the
ZIMBABWE go into the upcoming qualifiers in France Rugby Africa Cup is a mixture of
Rugby Africa Cup seeking a spot at home-based and foreign-based players,
next year’s World Cup with their best Sables star Tapiwa Mafura won the Currie Cup with Pumas in South Africa last weekend. some who feature for small clubs, but
days more than 30 years behind them. one major blow was the withdrawal of
tem.” ed flanker Dawson, prop Adrian Gar- ing allegiance, most notably Tendai Brandon Mudzekenyedzi, who plays
There have been seven failed cam- With South Africa excluded because vey and centre Richard Tsimba, the first "The Beast" Mtawarira and Tonderai for Waikato in New Zealand.
paigns since their last appearance at the black national team player, who died in Chavhanga, who both switched to
tournament in 1991, with Namibia of apartheid, Zimbabwe made appear- 2000. South Africa, and David Pocock, who Takudzwa Musingwini and Bren-
denying the Sables repeatedly, and the ances at the first two editions of the played for Australia. don Marume, two players who helped
emergence of other teams on the conti- World Cup in 1987 and 1991 as Afri- However, the bigger picture is a de- Zimbabwe qualify for the World Rug-
nent such as Kenya has made qualifying ca’s sole representatives. cline in the quality of the team over the The South African system has also by Under-20 Trophy, are in the squad
all the more difficult. years, with some top players chang- taken some Zimbabweans who have while full-back Tapiwa Mafura of
Stand-out players back then includ- South African side Pumas will be an-
Yet Zimbabwe had a huge confi- other key player in a side captained by
dence-booster with a 30-7 win away to Hilton Mudariki.
the Netherlands on Saturday in their
final warm-up game – their first Test Zimbabwe came agonisingly close
match in Europe in 31 years and their to qualifying for the 2015 World
first win ever in Europe. Cup, needing a bonus-point victory
over Kenya in their last game at the
The result saw the Sables move up round-robin tournament in Madagas-
seven places in the world rankings to car.
27th, above the Netherlands and three
places behind Namibia, who they could The Sables won, but the 28-10 score-
meet in the semi-finals of the Rugby line was not enough for a bonus point,
Africa Cup in France. and Namibia once again took Africa’s
qualifying spot.
Needing to reach the final to have a
chance of qualifying for the World Cup Dawson was also the coach back
finals, coach Brendan Dawson feels then, in an earlier spell in charge, with
his team is ready for Friday’s last-eight Cyprian Mandenge his assistant.
clash against Ivory Coast in Marseille
(this match has been played as you read “We just needed another try to qual-
this). ify, and it still hurts up to now,” Man-
denge told BBC Sport Africa.
“We’re confident and exceptional-
ly happy going into the Ivory Coast “But I think we will go to the World
game,” said Dawson. Cup this time. Many times we’ve been
affected by poor preparations, but these
“We won’t get beyond ourselves. are the best preparations that I can re-
We weren’t too clinical in certain areas member in my long time in rugby, and
like the breakdown against the Nether- I think we’ve got a good chance.”
lands, but we go into the qualifiers as
prepared as any team can be.” While Zimbabwe can fancy their
chances of beating Ivory Coast in the
The main part of the Sables’ prepa- quarter-finals, Namibia are likely to
rations was participation in South Af- stand in their way again in the last four
rica’s Currie Cup, where they played as - and history is very much against them.
a guest team in the second tier of the
domestic competition. Only the winners of the Rugby Afri-
ca Cup are guaranteed a spot at France
Despite finishing ninth of the 10 2023, and will enter Pool A alongside
teams, with three wins, Dawson felt New Zealand, hosts France, Italy and
that it was a useful exercise. Uruguay.

“We came into this tournament The runners-up, meanwhile, will
understanding that we were going to feature in a four-nation intercontinen-
use it as a building process and that we tal qualifying event later this year.
weren’t going to be results-driven,” said
Dawson, himself a former international A lot has changed since the Sables’
with World Cup experience. last World Cup appearance 31 years
ago, but this is one of their best chances
“It was all about getting the right to end their long exile from the global
squad for the Africa Cup and winning stage. – Agencies.
three games there boosted the morale
and made the guys understand the sys-

AGE-CHEATING is certainly a dar- Age-cheating in Zimbabwe football:
ing demon that somehow refuses to Shameful act that refuses to go away
be exorcised from our local game.
reeling from one crisis to the next, tures of the alleged culprits, some of A little over a year ago, the Zim- These are some of the reasons why
Just this past week, Zimbabwe in- surely last week's turn of events, which whom are well into their mid-20s. babwe national Under-17 team was corporates are shunning the local
ternational and Aston Villa midfielder culminated in Dynamos' junior team How shameful. embarrassingly booted out of the game; it is totally understandable that
Marvelous Nakamba dug deep into being booted out of Nakamba’s tour- Whether it was hunger for success, Cosafa Tourney over the same silly they do not want to be associated with
his pockets to sponsor a junior foot- nament over allegations of using over- or pure greed on the part of the Dy- allegations. such foolishness.
ball tournament in Bulawayo. aged players, is deflating. namos camp, we can never know. But Surely, in this age, we do not have
the shameless act of age-cheating For starters, players from their
Embarrassingly, headlines were cre- In years gone-by, there has been is killing our football. formative ages need to be taught the
ated over administrative issues, rather literally no investment towards de- It is not like Dynamos are the ethos of the modern game, embracing
than footballing reasons. velopment of the junior league from only culprits of age cheating, it is the use of technology. Age-cheating
the Zimbabwe Football Association certainly a huge cancer that has HawkZone should certainly be a thing of the past.
Through the Marvelous Nakamba (Zifa). This speaks more to the crisis
Foundation, the football extravaganza that our football finds ourselves in been allowed to eat into our game We have players who stayed true
was supposed to provide a platform right now. Alwynfor years now. to their biological ages and made it to
for success for the next big names in It would be unsurprising right the top.
our game. Why Dynamos coaches and of- Mabehlanow if we are to hear that some
ficials alike embarrassingly chose to Falsifying age does not improve
One or two stars perhaps could send over-aged players to that tourna- players in the local Premiership ability on the football pitch.
have risen out of the Under-17 tour- ment is anyone's guess. tampered with their identification
nament, and in the near future and, documents. Our game deserves honest indi-
like the Villa midfielder, fly the coun- They certainly did no one a favour. This problem needs thorough viduals who are driven by hunger for
try's tattered football flag in one of Actually, they might have robbed a de- investigations from the perpetrators to rely on age-cheats to score tourna- success on the pitch than shameless
Europe’s top leagues. serving individual of his path to star- who are issuing these players new ment success for us to fill ourselves age-cheats.
dom, as the star of that tournament identification documents, to the with false bravado that we are getting
Nakamba himself traces his foot- could have come from their camp. coaches who embrace these cheats. somewhere. *Guest columnist Alwyn Mabehla
ball journey in the trenches of proper is a former Daily News sub-editor
junior football management at Bantu Social media was awash with pic- and football writer.
Rovers.

Having earned a move to minor
European leagues in his teens, Na-
kamba's meteoric rise to the upper
echelons of the English Premier
League is nothing but remarkable.

At a time when the local game is

Sports Zim evade
‘grudge match’
with De Villiers

Real Madrid’s

golden era

sustained by

myth, epic and
Thursday 1 October 20c20old intelligence

Friday 1 July 2022 @NewsHawksLive TheNewsHawks www.thenewshawks.com

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Darikwa challenges Wigan$60 Covid
tariff for
visitors &
Community
radio
regulations

under review

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teammates ahead of seasontourists
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Chamisa reac
out to Khupe

Unofficial president calls for emerge

Tendayi Darikwa.

ZIMBABWE defender Tendayi Darikwa, who Darikwa expressed the importance of the squad time for any footballer. As a group, we need to the Championship in the same way that we did
captained Wigan Athletic to promotion into the demanding the best from each other to make keep demanding from each other and keep en- in League One.
second tier of English football at the end of last the most out of their time in Spain. couraging each other (through the sessions). "The Championship is a step up for us, and
season, was quick to express his delight about “It’s been really good, and it’s great to be “We’ve still got a long way to go, but so far a lot of lads have been there before. There are
the standards and effort levels of his teammates back,” he smiled. so good!” some really good teams and players that we will
during their warm-weather training camp in “It’s massive (to gaodiofnferterniAptsLtrlSiakiOneitnhIgNise)Sn. vIBiDreoiEnng- sFidinIetawisniljcluesmt Maokneientmihseotinyr trhwetaiuwprnaeystouontuthilteR$Ci3chh.a2amrdBpsiioollnni’os- n dabneedpfasoctirnsoignt,gosoarsswwfeuennceadendsbteo. makZe ismure'swlae taeresatslafitnd c
Spain. able to get away to
ment in the heat, and focus solely on football ship, and Darikwa revealed that he’s hungrier “We want to keep growing as a group and
Leam Richardson’s side are currently four is great. than ever to build on last season’s achievements. keep improving, and hopefully we can do that.”
days deep into their five-day stay at the Cam- “We’re working hard, and the sessions are “I’m hungrier than ever,” he said. Last month, London-born Darikwa took to
poamor training complex, with the squad be- tough. It’s important we keep demanding each “Last season has gone now - of course, we Twitter to dismiss reports that he had quit the
ing put through their paces to be ready for the other to be the best we can be. will reflect on it and have a look at what made Zimbabwe national team in frustration over the
start of the 2022-23 Sky Bet Championship “The lads have been class. Everyone is work- us so good as a team last season - but now we manner the game was administered in the coun-
campaign. Speaking after the first of their three ing to the maximum and pre-season is a tough want to continue moving forward and impact try. – WIGAN FC/STAFF WRITER
planned sessions on Thursday, Latics captain

ALSO INSIDE Zim ‘confident’ at Rugby World Cup qualifiers