SomReP Seasonal Assessment and BMZ Evaluation Report ⎯ Oct 2022 51 2021 with members 110; 63 male and 47 female. The other is review and updating of 21 CAAPs involving 504; 252 male and 252 female participants in 2021 in the project areas. The table below shows results on under the result area. It is interesting to note that the critical activity of training community structures on inclusive leadership and governance was not yet conducted as at the time of data collection yet the outcome indicator captured a strong positive result. While this outcome may be contingent upon related activities on capacity building such as the exchange learning visit on EWS that was conducted as well as the 7 Coordination meetings facilitated by local government to coordinate multi-sector, multiactor humanitarian and development actions within the framework of the Community Action and Adaptation Plans and District Development plans it may also be a factor of “opportunity for voice and accountability””. Transparency and accountability in governance by itself is a powerful instrument for results achievement just as “light dispels darkness”. When visibility is introduced into decision making the leaders become more sensitive to results delivery than when opaqueness is the norm. Table 32: Outcome #4 Output Scores Output Planne d Achieved@ Midterm Level Technical capacity of community structures and government institutions strengthened 6 3 50.0% Capacity for inclusive leadership and governance, conflict management and accountability improved 11 0 0.0% Linkages and synergies between actors strengthened 18 7 38.9%.0% Result 5: Programming, policy actions and decisions on resilience in Somalia informed on evidence based resilience research, learning and innovation Table 33: Outcome #5 Indicator Scores Indicator Baseline ARM20 Change Measure MidtermEval22 Change % Point Degree % of the targeted government staff who are able to lead CAAPs monitoring and evaluation processes at community level (PMERL) 42.9% 25.0% 67.9% 25.0% 100% The outcome area has a second outcome indicator whose assessment has not been required for this midterm evaluation, “'5.2.Extent to which SomReP resilience programmes and innovations influence government policies, planning and resource allocation toward resilience (measured on scale of 1 to 10)”. As at midterm the outcome area registers a 100% change which is very positive. A key desire of the BMZ funded project in South West State has been to enable communities and government at both levels (Federal and State) work together on CAAPs development, implementation through Participatory Monitoring, Evaluation, Reflection & Learning (PMERL) in villages (systems development). Midterm evaluation results on A.1.1.2.1. CAAPs are revised and updated and A.1.1.3.1. Periodic community and local government review and adaptation of CAAPs in villages show that the project has a 100% delivery on this output. This 100% delivery under outcome 1 has rubbed off to impact the outcome indicator on % of the targeted government staff who are able to lead CAAPs monitoring and evaluation processes at community level (PMERL) under outcome #5. There has been full cooperation between government and communities on these activities and outputs to deliver a green light score on the outcome. The PMERL process on CAAPS development and review has introduced a Community Driven Resilience approach to programming and seeks to ensure that these learnings translate into knowledge sharing at community level. It is hoped that by participating together on PMERL activities at
SomReP Seasonal Assessment and BMZ Evaluation Report ⎯ Oct 2022 52 community level community level structures as well as government institutions will translate research into practice and shape its programme design and investments to remain relevant. As at the time of midterm evaluation there was no data yet to determine effectiveness of stakeholder use of the CAAPs to inform planning at Federal Government level coordination mechanisms, such as the Recovery and Resilience Framework (RRF). Table 34: Outcome #5 Traffic Light Score Indicator Score Light % of the targeted government staff who are able to lead CAAPs monitoring and evaluation processes at community level (PMERL) 100% The outputs under this outcome area were informed by a number of activities. These are discussed under the outcome #5 outputs table below. Key activities already conducted and have contributed to the result in outcome #5 include fully developing the BMZ funded project M&E system and functions, conducting 1 PMERL session and conducting 1 out planned 3 Annual Resilience Measurement capacity building sessions. To boost outcomes, the project has also conducted all the three periodic stakeholders learning meetings and shared experiences on SomReP progress. Table 35: Outcome #5 output indicator Score Output Planned Achieved @ Midterm Extent Score Quality assurance, monitoring and evaluation systems are strengthened 8 3 37.7% New knowledge generated, disseminated &innovative solutions identified & scaled up to support programming 8 6 75.0% The overall summary result on effectiveness is an answer to the evaluation question, “To what extent has the conduct of activities delivered expected results (outputs and outcomes) and contributed to the achievement of the overall objective?” The measures on effectiveness were designed as follows, “To a great extent “is given a score of 5, “To a large extent 4”, “Somewhat 3”,“Little 2” and “To no extent” 0. The scores are scaled to a performance score of 100% for full progress towards results and 0% for expected but not achieved. The rest are in between. In the opinion of the evaluators, the BMZ project has registered an effective score of 4 out of 5 which is “to a large extent”. Being able register five green outcomes out of nine with only three red and one orange is commendable and must be recognized under these extreme circumstances of managing severe shock exposures. The challenge to address is how to translate outputs into outcomes for results which are behaviour change related; resilience capacities. The project has delivered on effectiveness to a great Extent. 5.2.3 Sustainability The BMZ funded project required that sustainability be assessed and discussed around four key thoughts. First, project Contribution to Local capacity for Sustainability. The question being “To what extent has the project contributed to local capacity to sustain the gains?”. The Second thought is on Capacity of Local Structures for Sustainability. In this thought the question was “To what extent are local structures capable to sustain the benefits of the project?”. The third thought is on the sustainability of project Effects on Capacity Building. The question here is, “To what extent are the project effects towards building capacity sustainable?”. The final thought under this terms of reference is on project benefits to different stakeholder groups. The question here is, “To what extent does the project benefit different stakeholder groups, especially women and men? Any difference?”. The evaluation findings are shown below.
SomReP Seasonal Assessment and BMZ Evaluation Report ⎯ Oct 2022 53 Contribution to Local capacity for Sustainability From the findings on effectiveness it is clear that the BMZ funded project has contributed to a large extent to the local capacity to sustain the gains. First, the overall SomRep strategy emphasises sustainability as focal issue. The SomRep Phase 2 strategy highlights areas of sustainability that resilience programming such as with the BMZ funded project will focus on. These include Sustainable Water Provision, Inclusive Market Systems Development, Sustainable Ecosystem Management and Governance and Policy11. Secondly, the BMZ funded program as part of the SomRep strategy for resilience building has invested heavily in capacity building on governance, social and financial capital mobilisation, enterprise and employment skills training and personal development for the community level structures as well as state government in South West State. The BMZ funded annual report records effective delivery of capacity development activities which have been captured quite well under the effectiveness section above. Moreover, the project has linked its beneficiaries to existing programs such as the IDPs who have been linked to the Durable Solutions program in Baidoa. This ensures continuity with a more long lasting opportunity for participatory development in that durable solutions program is a longer cycle than the BMNZ funded project. A more significant action towards sustainability is the participatory planning and development through PMERL and CAAPS at community level in which the project has coordinated community level groups and community structures to work with partner government departments to develop, share, revise and monitor the implementation of the CAAPs. Finally, the project has invested in ideas testing and learning for improving delivery of its services. This is seen through Somali Response Innovation Lab (SomRIL) and Resilience Nexus Learning Action Network (RNLAN). It is of note that the project has invested resources and efforts in developing a formal training manual and curriculum to guide capacity development for the VSLA Graduation Pathway Approach. The project is translating the curriculum into Somalia language to make the skills development more accessible to the communities. The training manual covers core elements of the Behavior Change Communication strategy of the savings group approach: (i) business development services; (ii) life-skills training; (iii) public speaking & negotiation; (iv) hygiene and sanitation; and (v) HH nutrition training and (vi) Private Service Provider for Saving Groups Agents methodology. The skills development hrough training may not show impact in the near term but in long term sense these skills are going to be very useful in management of community levels structures such as VSLA and farmer groups. Skills such as negotiation, planning, inclusion, decision making will be highly beneficial to governance and community mobilisation. Capacity of Local Structures for Sustainability. The extent to which the local structures are capable to sustain the benefits of the project is difficult to determine at this point. First, the results of this midterm evaluation show that the delivery of activities and outputs while commendable and largely successful has largely been much more based on the existence and impact from crisis modifiers. The community level structures and community groups are heavily involved in delivery of crisis modifiers in the communities and it remains to be determined what impact the absence of crisis modifiers will have on their capability to sustain the benefits of the project. Another factor to consider on this issue is the differences between community structures in terms of nature, composition, purpose and focus. While the VSLAs handle capital increment through enterprise mechanism, the TVET graduates focus on either being employed or using skills gained to create employments. The Farmer Groups are investors in livestock agriculture for profit. However the NRM, VDC and SAC committees depend more on donations from well wishers than capital investment for profits. It is also not yet clear how they can sustain activity and outcomes without funding from SomRep or another NGO that replaces SomRep when the current program cycle is completed. A further consideration is the capacity for shock absorption and be committed to funding own development. For instance in Baidoa 8 11 https://careclimatechange.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/SomReP-Strategy-Phase-II.pdf
SomReP Seasonal Assessment and BMZ Evaluation Report ⎯ Oct 2022 54 When it comes to the entire support provide by SomRep VSLA will continue even when the project ends. The knowledge gained from capacity building such as GAP will also continue. Mixed Committees FGD in Balguri Village in Afgoye” “The community perception on what is sustainable and what will not be sustainable is that really the groups should be linked with local government for assistance. Also the community contingency reserves will continue. The e-contributions also will continue. The feeder roads, water sources and many visible and tangible activities will continue when SomReP organization leave” “natural resource management activities may not continue because they are no qualified personnel who are professional in our community that can maintain the natural resource. Also Constructions, MUS, farm inputs, livestock inputs, WEE, DDRR, child abuse and racism. These may not continue. KII Mr. Abdi, Baidoa out 9 villages raised the 30% funding requirement for matching fund of 70% from the project. In Afgoye none of the three villages were able to do so. In Afgoye villages have been under security concerns and this has stifled strong participation. The one village in Baidoa lost livestock to the drought and were debilitated financially to participate in 2021. Some villages exceeded the 30% amount. These include Salamay who raised USD 16,500 while the closest competitor village raised USD 8,252 by Lowile village. These different results from the same project areas suggest that the local structures have the potential to sustain the benefits of the project but that this potential is vulnerable to shocks. It can be overwhelmed. One ting through that encourages is that the skills gained in inclusive governance and decision making including skills training and knowledge gained by participating in infrastructural activities show promise to be sustainable. This was also voiced by some of the committee members themselves. A women’s FGD in Baidoa echoed skills training and sustainability, “The project intervention that are successful are vocational trainings, Agriculture training, cash for work activities, electricians, water and sanitation and VSLA because it provide the skills on how to do many task that community were very needed”. But a KII differed on this with regards to NRM saying, The Sustainability Of Project Effects On Capacity Building The third thought is on the sustainability of project Effects on Capacity Building. The question here is, “To what extent are the project effects towards building capacity sustainable?”. Some of the effects towards building sustainability are from the community level changes in relationships and collaborations through which the community level groups, structures, government and SomRep consortium have together created products which have improved the lives of beneficiaries and created stronger partnerships for community development in response to shock exposures. Out of the outputs which we have already discussed under effectiveness section above, a few key products are worth highlighting for the effects they have had on the program as well as beneficiaries. Working together on community projects has had great effects a communities realise they too can participate in funding their own development and see it continue over long time. A Men’s FGD in Baidoa was positive about sustainable effects of programs saying, Some of the effects of collaborations with local enterprises such as micro finance companies like Midnimo and Salama Bank could also become significant development organizations especially of the VSLA graduation pathway becomes successful and the aggregator efforts
SomReP Seasonal Assessment and BMZ Evaluation Report ⎯ Oct 2022 55 with farmer groups and cooperatives provide market friendly financial and agricultural products which attract large groups of farmers. The continued involvement of Shaqoodoon in crowfunding, WARIDI Relief and Development Initiates in infrastructure development, community mobilisers as good will ambassadors to stimulate communities to appreciate fund matching and to contribute will continue to bringing different stakeholders together though online, face to face and other means of mobilization. For instance an effect on Afgoye villages in fund matching was observed in 2022. Although in 2021 the three villages of Afgoye raised only USD 805 they increased this value to USD 2000 out of the expected USD 35,348. This is progress and most likely inspired by the villages in Baidoa who raised their targets and one exceeded target. The afct that a village raises more by 50% is itself a story to tell of desire and will to develop and the potential for community mobilisation that exist in these BMZ funded project villages. The effects of these efforts will most likely continue as they are solving problems at corporate: community levels. Project Benefits To Different Stakeholder Groups The final thought under this terms of reference is on project benefits to different stakeholder groups. The question here is, “To what extent does the project benefit different stakeholder groups, especially women and men? Any difference?”. The groups included People with/without disability, women, men, boys and girls, pastoralists, agro pastoralist, peri urban and community structures, community groups and government line ministries such as . The evaluation found that the BMZ funded project benefitted different groups differently. As a start, a Women FGD in Baidoa raised this differential access to benefits citing an issue with targeting. In the findings on seasonal assessment it was noted that persons with disability performed better than person without disability on food consumption. Agro pastoralists were better off on program intensity in the high category followed by Peri Urban and pastoralist. Females and persons without disability fared worse than their counterparts on mean income. It was also voiced in an FGD in Afgoye that although the project had brought piped water during its cycle, some community members still preferred unsecured water sources. These examples show how that the BMZ funded project benefited different stakeholders differently. There is however, one aspect that is not yet clear in the BMZ project concerning a village that is unable to meet its fund matching target of 30% and still wants to access the services for which the funds are being raised. Is a village that has not been able to raise its contribution target still served with the same benefits as those villages that raise their share?. How does this Affect community structures in villages that raise the amount? In summary, the sustainability aspect of project community level structures, effects and benefits is possible in medium term of about five to ten years rather than in the short term. The key structures that show much promise to carry the sustainability agenda successfully are the community level structures of VSLA, TVETS, SACs, Farmer Groups and Cooperatives as they deal daily with capital development and productivity, job creation, funds distribution and MRM committees if connected to blended funding, climate action fund and preparation of communities to anticipate shocks and prepare early. Because sustainability is ideally measured and determined post intervention, the evaluation finds that the overall progress score on sustainability is “to some extent” with a strong trajectory created for “to a great extent” at least five years after 2023; post the second SomRep strategy. Some of the community members did not benefit from the project in spite of being vulnerable because they were unidentified during project vulnerably assessment and selection process. A Women FGD Baidoa
SomReP Seasonal Assessment and BMZ Evaluation Report ⎯ Oct 2022 56 6.0 Discussion 6.1 Seasonal Assessment Most of the regions in developing countries, particularly in the semi-arid tropics, are vulnerable to the current climate changes and climatic shocks in the future. Semi-arid areas are particularly vulnerable because limited opportunities for earning cash income lead to high levels of mobility and migration in search of better opportunities (Ryan and Spencer, 2001). Droughts have a multidimensional effect on humanity in terms of several socioeconomic parameters like agriculture, human health, sea level rise, scarcity of labor, disease prevalence, etc. (Adger, W.N. and Jordan, A. 2009). We note that shocks to the agricultural sector are precipitated by a system of multicolor stressors. These include; climate change, natural disasters, volatility of commodity prices, regional conflicts, policy shocks and the effects of globalization. These stressors interact in complex and messy ways to increase the vulnerability and reduce the resilience of agricultural agents to crises. This report presents a descriptive and distinctive framework on the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, adaptive capacity and risks in agriculture, putting Somalia in context. Proactive drought preparedness has proven challenging for three reasons: it is difficult for all the affected parties and decision makers to consider all the factors that influence drought preparedness; it is difficult for people to envision and plan for more severe droughts than those experienced in the decision maker’s memory or the historic record; and it is difficult to stay focused on drought, as they occur sporadically and management efforts therefore face inevitable time and budgetary constraints. As a result, there is growing interest in understanding how water resources can be proactively managed under uncertain conditions (e.g., Gober et al., 2011). Simulation games provide a safe environment for stakeholders to experiment with decisions (Mayer, 2009)and have been used, with great success, to facilitate learning, research and intervention in this context (Ruscaet al.; 2012; Magombeyiet al.; 2008) Pastorals had lowest reduction among those participating in three interventions. These suggest that program intensity has improved most among pastorals and suffered more among agro pastorals and peri urbans. According to Kenton (2021) value networks are commonly understood as a set of connections between organizations and/or individuals in specific value chains interacting with each other to benefit the entire group. A value network allows members to buy and sell products as well as share information. The sale of livestock especially due to the drought as happened to avoided in such a project. A projection should be done with understanding of the land carrying capacity and animals and sold in good time when they can fetch a good price and better earnings for the farmers. The decline of average incomes for project beneficiaries was affected largely due to the impacts of triple shocks in the project areas. In 2010 in Nicaragua, Marritvan den Berg found out that through destruction or distress sales of productive assets, a hurricane or another natural hazard could induce people with relatively remunerative livelihoods to choose more defensive strategies which allow them to survive, but at a permanently lower welfare level than before. High welfare strategies were associated with high levels of capital, and the number of people involved was very similar between different years, suggesting that households following low-welfare strategies were trapped in poverty. However, many households moved actively between strategies of different welfare levels. This indicates that there was no absolute poverty threshold, but also that being able to initiate a relatively profitable livelihood strategy was no guarantee that this strategy could be maintained. The gender and disability factors on mean incomes over the seasons show that vulnerability was
SomReP Seasonal Assessment and BMZ Evaluation Report ⎯ Oct 2022 57 most among males and people without disability (loss of USD 122.20 and USD 19.50) compared to females and Persons with disability (USD 96.90 and USD 2.20). These results suggest that while gender and disability programming is desirable its unintended impacts in shock exposure situations is the overlooking of the humanitarian needs of the counter parts. This could be a reverse discrimination by non-intention. It is not yet clear what subsequent impacts this kind of unintended reverse discrimination could create in resilience programming but SomRep needs to think about it long before it becomes significant. Unless well-thought strategies are implemented, they can result in a far reaching consequence and cause severe impacts on societies and livelihood especially among the natural resource dependent communities (Tompkins and Adger, 2004; Thomas and Twyman, 2005). While the impacts of triple shock in the project areas was being felt long after their onsets it must not be lost to us that if SomRep had not stepped up its crisis medication through safety net programming; some in the form of unconditional cash transfers, the erosion of incomes would have been much more devastating. The impact of water availability in some project locations particularly the project districts has had marginal impact on incomes for agro pastoralists. For instance vegetable farming was reported to have eased food security severity in some parts of the project locations through irrigation farming.The current situation and the long-term outlook require a fresh look at approaches that combine different elements such as the importance of access to water for the poor, providing multiple ecosystem services, rainwater management, adapting irrigation to new needs, enhancing water productivity, and promoting the use of low-quality water in agriculture. The situation of indebtedness among beneficiaries was exacerbated consumption based. The need for food in the wake of triple shock impacts on production capacities and the depleted state of assets has created a highly food dependent beneficiary population in the project areas. About three quarters of all debt incurred are for food consumption. Most of those who signed up for cash for work did so for food needs. It is instructive that pastorals have mobile livelihoods and can migrate to better pastures or corrective economic activities in other environments. The Peri urban livelihoods and agro pastorals are largely fixed to or near economic centres like cities and towns from where they manage their livelihoods. In the event of shocks the urban economic dynamics push many into indebtedness for survival. This is more so when savings of any nature are depleted by the continued shock exposure. In SAR 2022 more females were in debt than males. It could suggest a disproportionate burden of care in crisis in the gender factor. As such females are more likely to be targeted for inclusion in crisis modifier than males. The impact of the TVET component on the well-being of the beneficiaries cannot be overstated. Even with the decline in proportion of those recently trained in a skill and also those who got employed in SAR 2022, the TVET graduates increased by 8.7%. This is a good thing in that a skill once acquired is an asset that remains with. The only shocks that could more significantly affect TVET skill use are psychosocial and biological types such as illness or diseases which incapacitate the TEVT beneficiary. The good news that came out of the TVET components in SAR 2022 is the change of mind among a number of graduates to venture in self-employment and actually earn from their own initiatives in the open market. While the number of those venturing into self-employment after graduation from TVET is relatively low, this trend could see a lot more trainees and graduates shifting their thinking and imagination into that same direction. With more success stories young people can emulate their predecessors. Like in Nicaragua, Lean start up methodology (Eric Ries) that emphasizes learning loops to build sustainable start up business was used successfully in up scaling artisan businesses and diversifying coffee farms’ production for climate resilience.
SomReP Seasonal Assessment and BMZ Evaluation Report ⎯ Oct 2022 58 Agriculture outcomes saw mixed results which need further probing. While land ownership rose by 24.3%, land under cultivation reduced by 35.0%. The increase in land ownership in the 1 Ha – 2Ha category (6.2%) and a decrease among those with 3Ha and above (5.1%) could point to offloading or a relinquishing of portions of land owned by some land owners with larger portions in response to shock exposure or a conversion of land into alternative assets or cash it. It is also not clear why an increase in land ownership would not translate into an increase in land under cultivation. The relationship is inverse which is not what one would expect unless it is related to shock exposure conditions of agriculture. It is more curious because reduction in land under cultivation was registered in the households trained in GAPs by 34.6%.The qualitative data does not give an answer to this inverse relationship. However, it is interesting that most of those who forfeited land (sold) were pastoralists (24.20%) while those who bought land were agro pastoralists (18.2%). This could mean that it was easier for pastoralist land owners to offload portions of their land and migrate with their livestock for survival and for the agro pastoralist to buy their land and hold it for irrigation agriculture. For pastoralists loss of livestock owned (dropped by 6.7%) combined with reduced land owned is in one sense a double impact of adverse exposure to shocks. The qualitative data from FGDs show that the severe drought affected most livestock farmers leading to drop in sales and loss through diseases. Even the mean income earned from livestock was reduced by $64. Training of pastoralists in GAP practices need to take into account this phenomenon and focus its targets on pastoral livelihoods that makes meaning to livestock in comparison to land. SomRep may benefit more if further enquiry goes into this issue of inverse relationship of increased land acquired but decrease land under cultivation happens. The decline of those owning less than 1Ha is a grim picture of loss of an asset due to adversities of shock exposure especially given the value agro pastoralists place on land ownership. The gender factor in average land cultivation showed females cultivated more land (1.1 Ha) than males (1.0 Ha). Somalia is no exception to the pervasive and detrimental effects of gender disparity and inequality that is prevalent in the region. Despite laws guaranteeing gender equality, the ratification of international instruments and the creation of a specific ministry, women in Somalia continue to suffer legal and practical discrimination and inequalities and the country does not yet have a policy against gender-based violence (Arandel C et al.; 2015). The ideal food security scenarios in relation to resilience programming are in the categories of “acceptable food consumption”, “little to no hunger” and “no to low coping”. The SAR on food consumption scores (FCS) has a positive trajectory in general and for females and agropastorals in particular. The results of this study showed that there was a significant variation in the adoption of the several coping strategies in the four livelihood zones. This could be because the different livelihood zones have varying exposure levels to climatic extremes as well as different adaptive capacity due to different climatic and socioeconomic settings. This results are similar to a study by Ndungu C. K et al.; 2021 where they found out that households in the semi-humid zone for example, were less likely to experience extreme food shortages which might force them to reduce their daily meal consumption since they have relatively favorable climatic conditions for crop farming compared to those in the arid zone. Further, that households in the arid zones were often exposed to subsequent droughts and food shortages and had therefore invested most of their efforts on off-farm income generating activities in order to meet their food needs as opposed to those in the semi-humid areas. If the situation of triple shock impacts continues most districts will fall further to poor food consumption category. The project and other interventions in the districts are strong cushioning effects but given the general trend over the seasons the interventions are fighting a tenacious shock exposure situation and by it enabling household to hold on to resilience practices.
SomReP Seasonal Assessment and BMZ Evaluation Report ⎯ Oct 2022 59 The hunger scores post grim results within and across groups in that while less households experience little to no hunger in SAR 2022 compared to SAR 2021 more of the others are experiencing moderate and severe hunger over the seasons. The worst affected group is the Peri Urban followed by pastoral and agro pastoral. Agro pastoral livelihood seems to fare better in most wellbeing scores suggesting the cushioning impacts of diversification of livelihoods to which this livelihood group is accustomed. The hunger severity among Peri urban livelihoods needs further analysis. It could be characterised in terms of urban versus rural and the impacts of diversification of livelihoods among this group. These results are consistent with studies conducted among refugees from Liberia, West Africa and Somali in the USA by Napier, C.et al.; in 2018 where most women were food insecure, fewer were mildly food insecure, moderately food insecure and severely food insecure. Food insecurity usually occurs when people do not have access or money to purchase food at all times. COVID-19 has also severely affected the distribution and consumption of food products. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the food value chain suffered severe constraints in getting products to consumer markets from 2020 to 2022. The Reduced Coping Strategy index results paint a struggling to cope picture among beneficiaries. While generally fewer households in SAR 2022 compared to SAR 2021 have registered into the no or low coping category many more have shown up in the medium and high coping categories. While gender has consistently disadvantaged the females on most resilience scores the coping experience has reversed that trend such that males are struggling to cope more than females in SAR 2021. 6.2 The BMZ Funded Project in South West State In Somalia capacity building for resilience is being executed in the context of continuous search for effective transition from Humanitarian situations to Peace and Development also referred to as “triple nexus”. This presents development actors with both opportunity and challenge. Opportunities for testing and learning intervention ideas and practices that work including how and why, with whom and where. There are also opportunities to mobilize response actions that save lives and livelihoods while rallying communities together for survival against precipitations of emergencies. The challenge is in the fact that humanitarian as well as development gains made in a gradual and painstaking manner can be reversed in a fast and devastating way. This is part of the context of implementation and evaluation of the BMZ funded project result one. While asking the question as to the extent to which a tripartite combination of skills for positive coping, food consumption support and contingency planning for emergencies can indeed achieve result one as designed in the project, we are faced with the question of context, content and activity life cycle (duration of intervention for maturity of the result). While seeking to increase proportion of targeted households who are practicing positive coping strategies as measured by the reduced coping strategy index (rCSI) by 2023, the project encountered a decrease at midterm. This was the same with its intention to increase the proportion of targeted households with little to no hunger as measured by Household Hunger. Rather than an increase there was a decrease at midterm. The 5% increase in the proportion of households who report to have contingency reserves e.g. livestock fodder, grain or finances reserved for emergency appear to shed some light into a possibility for change. This possibility is visible when assessed against activities on contingency planning with government and other actors (100% done) and the work of early warning committees. The results are in agreement with findings from a study by Tsegaye, A., 2018, who established that there was a significant variation (P <0.01) in coping strategies used by households such as borrowing food and money as well as reducing meal frequency and amount across different climatic zones in Dabat District, Northwest Ethiopia. Similarly Berlie, A.et al. in 2015 noted that households in three different agro-ecological zones in Lay Gayint District, Ethiopia had adopted different coping strategies
SomReP Seasonal Assessment and BMZ Evaluation Report ⎯ Oct 2022 60 to food shortage with reduction of the numbers and types of meals and selling land to purchase food being more adopted in the most vulnerable agro-ecological zone, Kolla, lowland. While the context of implementing result one of the BMZ funded project is supported by development actors and donors, the content of activity including its adoption and as well as activity life cycle (duration of intervention efforts for maturity to results) have not been adequately considered in project design, structure and funding. For beneficiaries to positively cope with exposure to shock and mitigate its effects and impacts they need access to continuous and structured exposure (CSE) to adaptive, transformative and absorptive capacity training. This entrenches the content of activities into their consciousness so that in the face of shock they are more conscious of the positive coping strategy and less of the shock itself. This requires an ecosystem of multi capital accessible to the beneficiaries in emergencies. Given that BMZ funded project as a donor dependent intervention is limited in its scope, focus and funding to sustain such an investment, its 22 activities under results one provide opportunity for creation of multiple coping assets. These include savings (from VSLAs or others), flexible credit, knowledge and memory of appropriate responses, acquisition of productive assets, social capital of family and friends or network ready to respond, physical as well as material capital. Ahmed (2022) found that female-headed households were more likely to fall below the poverty line, have a larger poverty depth, and shift their diet due to climate shock than male-headed households. Interestingly, the study found that remittances decreased following climate shock, both on average and for femaleheaded households, but such reduction does not have a significant adverse effect on the households’ coping ability. This could be an indication that Somali households rely on other coping mechanisms to shocks than remittances. Similarly, even though mobile money increases the likelihood of receiving remittances, there was no evidence that this translates into a higher coping ability to climate shock. In seeking to improve capacity of individuals, households and communities to adhere to positive development trajectories; despite exposures to shocks and utilize strategies designed to allow adaptation to rapid and slow on-set hazards, the project focuses on reduced humanitarian assistance to households, increased average household incomes and all year access to water for domestic and agricultural use. The component of reduced humanitarian assistance saw a negative outcome while that of increased average income was positive. Such increase in income is likely a factor of humanitarian assistance through cash transfers and diaspora remittances than beneficiary productivity and participation in profit making. In 2020 Lwanga-Ntale and Owino found an inextricable link between vulnerability, conflict and disasters, with the major challenge facing the most vulnerable Somalis being uncertain about the future. Somali households adopted different coping strategies depending on their resource endowments, including the social and organizational coping strategies, divesting of non-essential domestic assets, and diversification of income generation and food production strategies. Thus, different population groups survived the shocks through social connectedness, which aligned with the effective use of remittances to create robust mechanisms for sharing risk. Given the productive nature of the land in project areas and increased water availability through water infrastructure development (and or rehabilitation) activities on water for domestic and agricultural use acquire a most critical value in contribution to achievement of the result. Water is a pivotal resource for productivity. Communities do not migrate away from water sources except only when it becomes a point of mortal conflict or dries from climate change impacts such as drought. But apart from availability of water which the result area seeks to address, there is the critical factor of low levels of productivity, vulnerability to climate change, and drought, as well as poor product quality attributed to weak and poorly coordinated agricultural value chains. The project’s efforts to address this through livestock cooperatives, livelihood grants, linkages to livestock markets, farmer training on good agricultural practices (GAP) and climate SMART agricultural have not yet to registered significant impact on the result area. While water
SomReP Seasonal Assessment and BMZ Evaluation Report ⎯ Oct 2022 61 infrastructure once rehabilitated and functioning can outlast the BMZ project it is not yet clear how other key aspects of this result area such as provision of agricultural inputs (tools, seeds and other inputs) and livelihood grants can ensure sustainable agro pastoral based incomes as well as adaptive capacity in the short term. Alternatives would include high program intensity in the project area. While the agricultural sector has potential to improve outcomes under result two this requires much more time which the current project cycle does not provide. The implementation of sound economic, agricultural, financial and technological policies in Somalia is a prerequisite for the successful adaptation of the agricultural sector to shocks and crises. Drawing from the experiences of developed countries (Dercon, 1999; Smit and Skinner, 2002; Smit et al.; 2000; Saldana, 2008) and information from workshops and research works conducted in SSA (Dietz et al.; 2004a, 2004b; Thomas, 2008; Twom low et al.; 2008; Barrios et al.; 2008; Eriksen and Silva, 2009; Reid and Vogel, 2006), the midterm evaluation identifies directions that require urgent policy advocacy to draw attention and action as follows: the uptake of knowledge and its creative application for sustainable livelihoods especially for the womenfolk; Value Chain development, contract farming or outgrowing schemes, economic governance through business councils, Permaculture and Micro Finance in humanitarian and development emergencies. MFIs, livestock associations, and producer groups regardless of seasonal changes resulting from shocks. The use of blended finance can also cushion vulnerable livelihoods from strong market forces which are prohibitive to fair participation in trade. The combination of informal financial groups such as VSLAs and the formal ones including MFIs is a creative design element of the project. It has allowed for financial literacy and learning for the beneficiaries while offering micro finance actors opportunity to explore and create new markets from among the project beneficiaries and their networks at community levels. From the project results, however, the determinants of resilience are different for each livelihood group. Those differences are relevant in terms of policy implications, considering the differences between the ultimate determinants of each component. In terms of access to basic services, for example, access to credit is much more relevant to pastoralists and large farm holders than it is to others. Access to water is more relevant to both farmer groups and agro pastoralists, while access to electricity and telephone networks is relevant to entrepreneurs and wage-employees. The social safetynets (transfers per capita) for wage-employees are twice those of other groups: this is related to urban poverty, where the lack of other assets (land, livestock, etc.) dramatically reduces the urban poor coping capacity. The outcomes on peri urban livelihoods in this midterm evaluation have also shown this to be the case as they have fared worse than pastorals and agro pastorals on coping. The result area four on participatory governance which includes women and other disadvantaged groups in decision-making processes in the determination of development priorities and CAAP financing at the community and district level has witnessed encouraging results so far. It is however not yet very clear how the structure and delivery for this result area is aligned with its key outcome indicator and outputs based on the type of activities designed under the result area. Mohamed Dirie, Guled in 2014 found that lack of community participation in local government led to poor service delivery in Bosaso. They also noted that there was poor direct service provision to communities, poor involvement of communities with service providers led to poor service delivery in Local government. The local officials through cooperation needed to increase people's productivity and access to capital, and give them better access to administrative staff. Community participation increases the transparency and service delivery improvement by these projects. The participation of beneficiaries helps ease legitimacy problems and improve transparency of the project by providing the score cards for WVS projects. For instance does the project have lee way to request that the “staff seconded from government ministries” be either a female of person with disability? Is the community sufficiently sensitized to adopt the program design for inclusive leadership in its composition and functioning of the early
SomReP Seasonal Assessment and BMZ Evaluation Report ⎯ Oct 2022 62 warning committees, business councils leadership, community structures and the multisector, multi-actor humanitarian and development initiatives? None the less participatory governance and experiences on inclusive leadership targeting the community structures expose women and vulnerable groups to key dynamics in governance and leadership. Arandel C. et al.;in 2015 found that project’s focused on citizen engagement with local officials, coupled with transparency and mutual accountability, lead to better services, changed attitudes and increased trust. Individual agency and leadership emerge as important success factors for the projects. Prospects for sustainability of these local reforms are challenged by Somalia’s weak state capacities and poverty. WVS projects should support the stability-enhancing governance through incremental interventions that create relationships and coalitions among local actors. Most of these dynamics have historically been discriminatory and excluded them from decisions and opportunities for development. By participating in planning, negotiation, problem solving, resource allocation and consensus building; among other things, women and persons living with disability as well as other vulnerable groups bring voice and accountability to these structures and amplify the needs of the vulnerable as those who can make decisions and take action to address them. While appreciating the thought and efforts on inclusive leadership and participatory governance it is noted that the program design on this result area is weakened by the fact that actual leadership positions in the structures is still largely male dominated. Furthermore, the project designers need to ask themselves key questions on cost of inclusion. Including women and persons with disability into decision making attracts costs which traditionally have been hidden from structured leadership at community level. Women and persons with disability have both the self and family care duties which they bear as “must – do” 12responsibilities. Inclusion therefore means incurring additional costs of self-care for PLWDS and family care for women while attending meetings and over sighting CAAPs actions. The project is silent on these critical historical and cultural aspects of cost of inclusive leadership. Who bears them? Will inclusive leadership be an added burden on women and PLWDS? As for result area number five (5) there was very positive outcomes. This result area has scored the highest in the midterm evaluation. A 65.6% effective level raises other questions about the infrastructure of delivery. It is to be considered that this result area is about knowledge generation and usage; Knowledge management to inform practice. The delivery infrastructure for this result area is comparatively stable having been created and built over many years and structured and funded by the Project to ensure its realisation. The community based groups that have been formed for resilience programming in the project areas have no such infrastructure or strong history for organised knowledge management. Even the government at both levels struggle with building and sustaining knowledge management activities. For Result 5: Programming, policy actions and decisions on resilience in Somalia informed on evidence-based resilience research, learning and innovation to be fully functional the knowledge management infrastructure has had to invest in technical skills in monitoring and evaluation, thematic studies, policy analysis, problem solving, data management skills and technology, recruitment and remuneration of relevant skilled staff, report writing and dissemination as well as donor engagement for funding, transparency and accountability among other important investments. Additionally the result area is highly literacy dependent and most community groups have low literacy levels. Eight (8) out of the nine (9) activities under this result area were initiated by project leadership and not community structures. Furthermore, the outputs and outcomes under the result area are somewhat loosely aligned with its design. The contributing activities of developing M&E system, conducting PMERL session, conducting capacity building sessions on Annual Resilience Measurement, conducting audits, conducting several periodic stakeholders learning meetings, conducting Annual Resilience measurements, conducting Rounds of 12 Inescapable duties in addition to other duties required of tem to survive
SomReP Seasonal Assessment and BMZ Evaluation Report ⎯ Oct 2022 63 seasonal assessments in year 1 and 3, conducting fair trade analysis study and conducting Endline Evaluation are all relevant and valid actions to support knowledge generation and application. However, there is little evidence to show that the community structures have significant contribution to their design, execution and learning. The actual catalysts of desired change for the result area are “decisions taken”, “innovative solutions created”, “Policies formulated”, “Recruitments made”, “Funding applied for and secured”, “Program component changed or re-designed” as a result of recommendations made and up taken based on evidence from “M & E system analysis”, “PMERL session conducted”, “capacity building sessions on Annual Resilience Measurement conducted”, “audits conducted”, “several periodic stakeholders learning meetings conducted”, “Annual Resilience measurements conducted”, Rounds of seasonal assessments in year 1 and 3 conducted”, “Fair trade analysis study conducted” and “Endline Evaluation conducted”. These activities could become sub activities under outputs and outcomes specifically designed to obtain the actual catalysts of change for the result area: decisions, policies, innovations and funding decided upon by beneficries in this result area. 6.3 A note on sustainability The sustainability of benefits, structures, outcomes are well thought out in the overarching SomRep sustainability matrix and BMZ funded project documents and is being executed with the relevant actors on the ground. As to whether this framework and implementation translates into sustainability as designed depends on several factors. The speed with which the community structures and government institutions internalize and own the resilience concepts (intellectual property) as designed in the theory of change and framed for implementation. Ownership of knowledge is key for behaviour change. This also presupposes that the BMZ funded project applies communication methods that facilitate knowledge adoption in a way that the early adopters inspire the laggards and later adopters into their group by the end of project in 2023. Maintaining or even increasing crisis modifiers for food security, participatory governance, as well as participation in CAAPS through PMERL are promising opportunities to deliver sustainability of structures and benefits of the project. The second factor for sustainability is the direction SomRep post strategy 2 in 2023. The scale and strength of association between program, intensity, food security and resilience capacities is desirable but will take longer than 2023 based on the severity of shocks and the speed of uptake of resilience knowledge by the community structures and government institutions. The trajectory of the SomRep theory of change is promising and if the program keeps at it there will likely be positive and sustainable outcomes in the medium (5-10 more years) and long term (more than 30 years). It is in the transition between outputs and outcomes that sustainability could be determined. This transition is largely a factor of intellectual appreciation and ownership of change. It is a behaviour change factor and based on psychosocial support processes for change. It is knowledge (exposure to project activities and concepts) becoming attitudes and translating into practices and over time become culture. With this intellectual ownership of change, beneficiaries acquire internally motivated impetus (self driven) to explore innovations through creativity in order to deliver their beliefs and expectations on resilience and find better ways to respond to shocks other than negative coping.
SomReP Seasonal Assessment and BMZ Evaluation Report ⎯ Oct 2022 64 7.0 Conclusions and Recommendations The key conclusions and recommendations are listed below Conclusions The following conclusions are made: General (1) Households in the project areas are highly sensitive to shocks from season to season. Household responses in the face of shocks have largely been negative as shown by mixed food security outcomes as well as selling of productive assets without reciprocal productivity activities. The positive thing is that households are progressively transitioning to positive responses with the introduction of crisis modifiers and participatory development approaches. While on the one hand crisis modifiers have improved food security outcomes in some areas (especially with persons with disability, women and agro pastoralists) and cushioned others from sinking deeper into negative coping participatory response planning and governance resilience programming through PMERL has inculcated more ownership of capital development for community action and elevated transparency and accountability in collective decision making on development proprieties. (2) The resilience interventions implemented under the BMZ project have delivered on relevance to a great extent (75% - 100%), and on effectiveness to large extent (50% - 74%), and sustainability to a somewhat (25% - 49%) extent with a pathway to a large extent (75% - 100%). The pathway for sustainability from somewhat to a large extent has been proposed in the recommendation section. (3) The Seasonal Assessment reporting is not consistent from season to season and the data sets are not consolidated into a single registry for measurement, trend analysis and learning. Even where data could be available outputs for indicator status reporting are not derived for actual reporting such as with water outcome indicators and TVET between SAR 2021 and SAR 2022. This affects standardized (at least at program level) indicator definitions and value determination for comparisons and contrasts between seasons, livelihood types, demographics and program performance measurements over time. Seasonal Assessment (4) Food security in the households within the project areas as well as market prices of goods and services, access to water for households and livestock and irrigation across locations are all highly sensitive to seasons especially to females, persons with disability and peri urbans. Households and livelihood types that have contingency reserves, access to crisis modifiers and have program intensity fare much better than those who do not. (5) The nature and frequency of idiosyncratic and covariate shocks in SomReP operational areas in the last several seasons has been severe, largely overwhelming and widespread in scope beyond project areas of Afgoye and Baidoa. Their effect on food consumption and ability to recover from shocks has been devastating and only moderated using crisis modifiers and hope (encouragement) as a psychosocial and
SomReP Seasonal Assessment and BMZ Evaluation Report ⎯ Oct 2022 65 Spritual 13capital built from being involved in participatory response planning and governance of resilience programming activities through PMERL approaches. (6) The markets in the project areas are relatively functional even during shocks but the prices of goods and services are prohibitively high for women, person with disability and peri urban livelihoods making access to goods and services more difficult in times of crisis. (7) While pastoralists and peri urbans have been affected more on most project outcomes in the project areas the agro pastoralists and IDPs have shown better resilience outcomes. When pastoralists sell land and livestock to survive the shock exposures the agro pastoralists who buy them do not cultivates them as much owing to the severity of the shocks to farm inputs, prohibitive and inaccessible credit facilities as well as limited water for irrigation and domestic use. However, some of the beneficiaries who accessed loans built water reservoirs for irrigation of vegetables and fruits for both consumption and incomes from market. Midterm Evaluation (8) The implementation progress made in activities towards achieving the planned results is highly commendable. The BMZ funded project has been diligent and implemented most of activities which it had planned by more than 75%. The implementation is also flexible and agile in nature in that some activities which were delayed in one quarter have still been implemented in another quarter. For instance there was change of strategy to include local partnerships to access inaccessible areas such as in Afgoye. There was also change of activity types to replace important activities with more urgent and important ones such as from roads to water projects in Afgoye. (9) The continued relevance of the BMZ funded project is strong and its effectiveness very positive. And while sustainability of the project benefits, capacity of community structures is well thought out and is being implemented in its strategic plans, its realisation hinges on critical programming factors which include (1) the programming direction, approaches and scope SomRep as a consortium and strategy takes post 2023, (2) continuity of participatory planning and governance as well as transparency and accountability in collective decision making on program priorities among community structures and (3) government policy innovation to accommodate the CAAPs into its budgetary and oversight functions. (10) The evaluation has made strategic, programmatic recommendations for implementing the remaining part of the project. These are in the aspects of boosting crisis modifiers, strengthening participatory planning and governance as well as collective decision making through PMERL approaches within a continued ideological and implementation cover of the SomRep Consortium. Recommendations (1) The BMZ funded project with the help of SomRep program needs to review the seasonal assessments data sets for 2020 and 2021 and 2022 and align each dataset with the indicators of resilience programming results framework as design in the second SomRep strategy 2018 – 2022 with room for modification to include future indicators (on the dataset technology platform) based on continuous learning on resilience programming within WVS and SomRep program. Once the three datasets are aligned to SomRep strategy 2, a single data registry of Seasonal assessment datasets (SRD) should be created to consolidate all the seasonal assessment data between 2020, 2021 and 2022. The single registry dataset becomes the parent dataset in 2022/2023 upon which 13 Community structures Being able to believe that they and their communities can indeed build capacity to overcome crisis when they happen through participatory planning and governance. The hope created and goals set become rally points for collective energy to respond effectively
SomReP Seasonal Assessment and BMZ Evaluation Report ⎯ Oct 2022 66 subsequent seasonal assessments are built and data outputs for reporting derived. This parent dataset will enable SomRep program and the BMZ funded project to frame its data outputs for DME learning through comparisons and contrasts as well as milestones, cycles, patterns, associations between and across various indicators, timelines, variables and theories of change on specific outcome areas and measures. A detailed parent TOR should be written to guide this recommendation from which future TORs on seasonal assessments will be derived. (2) In view of the struggles of Youth in Livehoods during crisis as shown in the TVET outcomes, it is recommended that the project introduces Crisis Modification into youth livelihoods interventions on a conditional basis (Membership into a Youth Livelihood Group, transparency and accountability on enterprise management, savings on incomes, productivity and attending economic capacity development training sessions) through the Economic Development Technical Advisory arm of SomRep program. (3) The BMZ funded project needs to consider and include a male food security vulnerability assessment criteria into its targeting mechanism which can be used in some cases during beneficiary targeting for crisis modification. The evaluation has found that males have shown worse performance on some food security indicators than females. This could signal the beginning of change of power dynamics in which women have traditionally been a marginalised demographic. Targeting marginalized males among pastorals, agro pastorals, peri urbans and IDPs could be crucial to reducing vulnerability and building resilience. Resilience policy-making, programming and funding instruments should embrace the ‘leave no one behind’ principle explicitly, prioritizing actions to support the poorest and most marginalized with the aim of ending extreme poverty and reducing inequalities. (4) Pastoralists should be linked to livestock insurance programs in the project areas and those who are program beneficiaries connected to NRM committees whose scope should be expanded to include activities which help convert lands owned by pastoralists into pastures for livestock through range land management processes including fodder development and water harvesting and conservation technologies for pasture development. This way pastoralists will reduce selling their lands while also making them productive assets for livestock food during shocks. With this modification in project design the project will focus on diversifying livelihoods and help pastoralists re-consider or minimise migration and transitions from rural to informal urban livelihoods as possible adaptive strategies for smallholder farming. It will also enable resilience strategies to target both host communities and displaced people through access to and employment opportunities, to prevent conflicts over resources including land. (5) The BMZ funded project should maintain the design of its programming and implementation strategies as they are working effectively including its flexible and agile nature in activity implementation. The only modifications proposed to design and strategy is for a 35% downward adjustments on set indicator targets on numbers planned for trainings and contingency funds (budget adjustments difficult midpoint) as well as creating an end of project transition plan for post 2023 sustainability which includes (1) Linkages with SomRep strategy programming direction, approaches and scope post 2023, (2) continuity of participatory planning and governance as well as transparency and accountability in collective decision making on program priorities among community structures and (3) advocacy for and securing government policy innovation to accommodate the CAAPs into its budgetary and oversight functions. A linkage with government policy innovation is a long-term vision as part of ‘durable solutions’ for sustainable management of an enabling environment which is fundamental to fostering resilience. This requires integrated policies and strategies to address regional, district and local development priorities that are climate-smart, environmentally friendly and gender-sensitive, and that address the drivers of vulnerability. (6) SomRep should create a theory of change in a tripartite arrangement of (1) crisis modifiers connected to (2) participatory planning and governance as well as (3) collective decision-making in transparent and accountable structures is applied as instruments for
SomReP Seasonal Assessment and BMZ Evaluation Report ⎯ Oct 2022 67 transformative transition from humanitarian to development programming in resilience capacity building. While crisis modifiers have been shown to improve resilience outcomes, participatory planning and governance as well as collective decision-making in transparent and accountable structures have increased ownership of ideology and processes leading to greater adoption of responsibilities for funding and management at community levels. A governance and process oriented approach focused on building and strengthening partnerships between a broad range of local public and private actors is essential to achieving goals in fragile settings at all levels (households, communities, systems). (7) The BMZ funded project has been surprisingly effective in delivering its activities and outputs under severe beneficiary shock exposure. This is a feature of nexus programming that needs further understanding with better evidence determination. It is therefore recommended that the BMZ funded end of project evaluation in 2023 should require that the data bases of SAR 2020 and SAR 2021 and SAR 2022, having been consolidated in 2022 -2023 period (or could be consolidated at that time by the successful consultant) be used to inform trend analysis on resilience outcomes compared between other SomRep projects and districts (as one whole program area) and the two BMZ districts. The end of project evaluation should be based on a quasi experimental evaluation design with strong qualitative data collection in 2023 based on village sample sizes with acceptable scientific validity – at least 30 cases (most district sample sizes for SomRep districts in this evaluation were below this threshold being very low for statistical analysis). These should be complimented with a detailed documents review (activity contribution to and logic connection with outputs and outcomes) combined with analytical observation methods for pictorial analysis. These should provide a robust and more significant understanding of the BMZ funded project design, performance and results against other projects and districts within SomRep programming strategy 2018 - 2023.
SomReP Seasonal Assessment and BMZ Evaluation Report ⎯ Oct 2022 68 8.0 References Marrit van den Berg. 2010. Household income strategies and natural disasters: Dynamic livelihoods in rural Nicaragua; ecological economics; vol 69, i3, 15 Jan 2010. doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.09.006 Tompkins, E. L., &Adger, W. N. (2004). Does Adaptive Management of Natural Resources Enhance Resilience to Climate Change? Ecology and Society, 9, 10. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-00667-090210. Thomas, D., Osbahr, H., Twyman, C., Adger, N. and Hewitson, B. (2005) Adaptive: Adaptations to climate change amongst natural resource-dependant societies in the developing world: across the Southern Africa climate gradient. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. Technical Report. 35. David S. G. T, Chasca T, Henny Oand Hewitson B 2007 Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa Climatic Changevo 83, 301–322 10 Feb 2007 Charles K. Ndungu, Evelyn J. Mutunga, Moses Mwangi, Patrick C. Kariuki (2021). Food Insecurity Coping Strategies and Determinants of Households’ Choice of Specific Coping Strategies in Kitui County, KenyaJournal of Food Security. 2021, 9(2), 36- 45. DOI: 10.12691/jfs-9-2-1, 5thNov 2021; Accessed5th Nov 2022. Tsegaye, A., Tariku. A., Worku, A., Abebe. S., Yitaya, M., Awoke,T., Alemu, K. and Biks G. (2018) Reducing amount and frequencyof meal as a major coping strategy for foodinsecurity. Archives ofPublic Health. 76: 56. Nordby, L. (2018). Gender-based violence in the refugee camps in Cox Bazar : A case study of Rohingya women’s and girls’ exposure to gender-based violence</i> (Dissertation). Retrieved from http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-353891. Berlie, A. (2015) Coping Strategies and Household Food Securityin Drought-Prone Areas in Ethiopia: The Case of Lay GayintDistrict. Ghana Journal of Development Studies, 12 (1) Published online 2020 Dec 14. doi: 10.4102/jamba.v12i1.856 Charles Lwanga-Ntale and Boniface O. Owino (2020).Understanding vulnerability and resilience in Somalia14thDec 2020. doi: 10.4102/jamba.v12i1.856PMCID: PMC7768599, PMID: 33408804 Napier, C., Oldewage-Theron, W. &Makhaye, B. Predictors of food insecurity and coping strategies of women asylum seekers and refugees in Durban, South Africa. Agric & Food Secur7, 67 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-018-0220-2 Ryan, R., & Deci, E. (2001). On Happiness and Human Potentials: A Review of Research on Hedonic and Eudaimonic Well-Being. Annual Review of Psychology, 52, 141-166. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.psych.52.1.141 Adger, W.N. and Jordan, A. (2009) Governing Sustainability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Gober, P., Wentz, E. A., Lant, T., Tschudi, M. K., & Kirkwood, C. W. (2011). WaterSim: A Simulation Model for Urban Water Planning in Phoenix, Arizona, USA. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 38(2), 197–215. https://doi.org/10.1068/b36075
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SomReP Seasonal Assessment and BMZ Evaluation Report ⎯ Oct 2022 70 9.0 Annexes ─ The Terms of Reference ─ The Household Questionnaire ─ The KII Checklist ─ The FGD Checklist ─ The List of Documents reviewed