100_INDONESIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK_4

INDONESIA ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK

https://www.focus-
conomics.com/countries/indonesia

April 24, 2018

Economic activity continued to expand at a healthy
pace in the first quarter, according to available
data. The domestic economy is firming, as
suggested by soaring imports. This is likely being
supported by the ramp-up in infrastructure
spending pursued by the government, mainly
through the expansion of the balance sheets of
state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Bank loans
expanded robustly in the first quarter, a further sign
of strengthening domestic demand. In addition,
improvements in the manufacturing sector were
registered by the PMI in February and March. On
11 April, Moody’s upgraded the country’s rating to
Baa2 with stable outlook, citing the government’s
prudent fiscal stance and the Central Bank’s focus
on controlling inflation.

Indonesia Economic Growth

Growth is expected to accelerate somewhat this
year, mainly supported by stronger domestic
demand. Favorable financing conditions, rising
inflows of FDI and higher commodity prices
should spur private investment, while public
investment will be scaled up through higher public
infrastructure spending. Moreover, public finances
will be kept in check, although the rising
indebtment level of SOEs may push the
government to spend public resources to ensure
their financial viability. Cooling demand from
China and rising global interest rates pose the main

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downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics
panelists see GDP expanding 5.3% in 2018,
unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, the
economy is seen growing 5.4%.

Indonesia Economy Data

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Population (million) 249 252 255 259 262

GDP per capita (USD) 3,672 3,532 3,371 3,605 -

GDP (USD bn) 914 891 861 933 -

Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) 5.6 5.0 4.9 5.0 -

Consumption (annual variation in %) 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.0 -

Investment (annual variation in %) 5.0 4.4 5.0 4.5 -

Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.0 -

Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 12.9 14.5 13.3 11.0 -

Unemployment Rate 6.2 5.9 6.2 5.6 -

Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.2 -2.1 -2.6 -2.5 -

Public Debt (% of GDP) 22.0 24.3 27.5 28.9 -

Money (annual variation in %) 12.8 11.9 9.0 10.0 -

Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 8.1 8.4 3.4 3.0 -

Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) 6.4 6.4 6.4 3.5 -

Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %) 6.0 9.3 - --

Policy Interest Rate (%) 7.50 7.75 7.50 4.75 -

Stock Market (annual variation in %) -1.0 22.3 -12.1 15.3 -

Exchange Rate (vs USD) 12,170 12,385 13,788 13,473 -

Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) 10,449 11,866 13,392 13,302 -

Current Account (% of GDP) -3.2 -3.1 -2.0 -1.8 -

Current Account Balance (USD bn) -29.1 -27.5 -17.5 -16.9 -

Trade Balance (USD billion) -4.1 -2.2 7.7 9.5 -

Exports (USD billion) 183 176 150 145 -

Imports (USD billion) 187 178 143 136 -

Exports (annual variation in %) -3.9 -3.6 -14.6 -3.4 -

Imports (annual variation in %) -2.6 -4.5 -19.9 -4.9 -

International Reserves (USD) 99.4 112 106 116 -

External Debt (% of GDP) 29.1 32.9 36.1 34.0

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