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Published by Niche Marketing & Planet Mogul, 2017-04-08 12:37:29

Bracing for the Silver Tsunami

Aging

Keywords: Aging

WHITEPAPER

BRACING FOR THE SILVER TSUNAMI

James H. Johnson, Jr., Ph.D.
Allan M. Parnell, Ph.D.

The U.S.’s ability to thrive and prosper in the hyper-
competitive global economy of the 21st century
will hinge on the degree to which we are able to

successfully manage this simultaneously “browning”
and “graying” of America.

TABLE OF CONTENTS 1
2
Introduction 7
Contemporary Snapshot of Aging
Looking Ahead 10

Responding to Opportunities and Challenges 16

References Cited



FRANK HAWKINS KENAN INSTITUTE OF PRIVATE ENTERPRISE WHITE PAPER

BRACING FOR THE SILVER TSUNAMI

Introduction

We are living in an era of disruptive demographics. Major shifts in the size, composition, and
geographic distribution of the U.S. population are dramatically transforming our social, economic,
and political institutions, creating both challenges and opportunities along the way. Two colorful
demographic processes—the “browning” and “graying” of America—undergird the population
shifts our nation is experiencing (Johnson and Kasarda, 2011).

Browning refers to Browning refers to the growing role that immigration is playing in transforming the racial/ethnic
the growing role complexion of our nation. For more than a half century, most of the immigrants arriving in the U.S
have been people of color from Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East (Johnson, Farrell, & Guinn,
that immigration is 1997; Johnson & Kasarda, 2011).
playing in transforming
Graying refers primarily to the aging of the U.S. native-born population (Johnson and Kasarda, 2011).
the racial/ethnic It is driven in part by the maturing of the boomer generation, the population born between 1946
complexion of our

nation.

and 1964. Boomers began turning 65 in 2011 and will continue to do so at the rate of more than

Graying refers primarily 8,000 per day for the next twenty years. Graying is also a function of major advances in health care
to the aging of the U.S. and shifts in the personal behavior of seniors, including more active living and healthy eating, which
native-born population are leading to increased longevity (Wheeler, 2010; Larsen, 2014; Meyer, 2012). This combination
of an aging boomer population, on the one hand, and significant increases in the life expectancy of

seniors, on the other, are the two main demographic components of what is often popularly referred

to as the emerging silver tsunami (Horvath, 2013; Ortman, Veilikoff, & Hogan, 2013; The Economist,

2010; Easterbrook, 2014; Das. 2015).

The U.S.’s ability to thrive and prosper in the hyper-competitive global economy of the 21st
century will hinge on the degree to which we are able to successfully manage this simultaneously
“browning” and “graying” of America (Johnson, 2013). We have devoted considerable research
attention to the economic, political, and societal implications of the browning of America (see, for
examples, Johnson, Farrell, & Guinn, 1997; Bobo, et al., 2000; and Johnson & Kasarda, 2011). We
therefore focus specifically on the graying of America in this essay. We present a contemporary
snapshot of our nation’s senior population and projections of how this population will likely
change over the next 25 years—through year 2040. We also identify critical areas in which policy
prescriptions are required in order to address some of the most daunting challenges and to take
advantage of some of the most propitious opportunities that underlie the graying of America.

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Contemporary Snapshot of Aging

In 2014, the U.S. senior population (65+) totaled 46.2 million. It is a fairly homogeneous population.
In comparison to the total population, non-Hispanic Whites are over-represented and Blacks,
Hispanics, and other non-White groups are under-represented in the elderly population. In 2014,
over three quarters of the elderly were non-Hispanic Whites (78% or 36 million); all other groups,
including Blacks (8.8% or 4.1 million) and Hispanics (7.6% or 3.5 million), each accounted for less
than 10% of the 65+ population in 2014 (American Community Survey, 2014).

Between 2010 and 2014, as Figure 1 illustrates, the senior population grew at a rate that was nearly Between 2010 and
five times the rate of growth experienced by the total population (14.8% versus 3.1%); the leading 2014, the senior
edge of the boomer cohort (i.e., those between the ages of 65 and 69) grew seven times as fast as population grew at a
the total population (22.4% versus 3.1%); and the 85+ population, the oldest old, grew almost four rate that was nearly
times as fast as the total population (11.2% versus 3.1%). five times the rate of
growth experienced by
FIGURE 1 the total population.
Absolute and Percent Population by Age, 2010-2014

Source: ACS, 2014

Figure 2 shows that the senior population growth rate exceeded the national average (14.8%) in 26
states between 2010 and 2014. Most of the states experiencing elderly population growth above
the national average were in the South and the West.

FIGURE 2
States Where Elderly Population Growth was Above or Below National Avg., 2010-2014

Source: ACS, 2014

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Another indicator of geographic scope can be found in the absolute and cumulative change numbers
in Figure 3. The nation’s senior population grew by roughly 6 million between 2010 and 2014. One
fifth of this net absolute growth (1.3 million) was concentrated in two states (California and Florida).
Slightly over half was concentrated in ten states (3.2 million). And roughly three-quarters (4.7 million)
in 21 states.

FIGURE 3
Absolute and Cumulative Percent of Elderly Population Growth by State, 2010-2014

Migration is playing Source: ACS, 2014
a major role in these
dramatic patterns of
relative and absolute
growth of the nation’s

senior population.

Migration is playing a major role in these dramatic patterns of relative and absolute growth of the
nation’s senior population. Seniors are voting with their feet in ways that are radically changing the
population geography of the U.S. (Bergal, 2016a,b).

At the regional level, as Figure 4 shows, seniors have been moving from the Northeast and Midwest
to the West and especially to the South for at least the past fifteen years. Moreover, at the same
time it has been a net recipient of seniors from the Northeast and Midwest, the West region also has
been a net exporter of seniors to the South. As a consequence, the South must be viewed as the
primary regional migration destination for seniors.

FIGURE 4
Net Regional Migration Flows or Elderly Populations

Source: Current Population Survey, Migration/Geographic Mobility, Selected Years, 2000-2015

Irrespective of region of origin, seniors are primarily leaving large urban centers or the principal cities
of major metropolitan areas in the Northeast and Midwest and settling in suburban communities
of large metropolitan areas, mainly in the West and the South (Figure 5). In some instances, as we

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show below, seniors are moving to suburban communities within major metropolitan areas in the
Northeast and the Midwest. These suburban destinations also benefit from relatively small but
significant net flows of senior migrants from non-metropolitan or rural communities (Figure 5).
FIGURE 5
Metro/Non-Metro Elderly Net Migration Flow (In Thousands)

Source: Current Population Survey, selected years, 2005-2014.

Specific communities that experienced net elderly in-migration between 2006 and 2010 (latest
available data on county-to-county migration flows) are depicted in Figure 6.1 Two types of
communities are highlighted: metropolitan and micropolitan.
FIGURE 5
Metro/Non-Metro Elderly Net Migration Flow (In Thousands)

Source: ACS, County-to-County Migration Flows by Age, 2006-2010.
1  These migrations numbers are probably at a lower level than most periods because of the recession.

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Communities defined as primary metropolitan destinations in Figure 6 experienced net gains ranging
between 5,000 and 9,500 seniors between 2006 and 2010. They include suburban communities in
the Phoenix-Mesa, Scottsdale, AZ (+9,380), Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA (+6,446), Dallas-
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (+5,801), Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL (+5,530), and Atlanta-Sandy
Springs-Roswell, GA (+5,436) metropolitan areas.

As Figure 6 shows, there were also a host of secondary metropolitan destinations—communities
that experienced net gains of between 1,000 and 4,999 seniors between 2006 and 2010. Most
of these destinations are concentrated in the South and West regions. They include Baltimore-
Columbia-Towson, MD; Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-WV; Charlotte, Raleigh, and
Durham, NC; Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC; Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN; Miami,
Cape Coral-Fort Meyers, Jacksonville, Lakeland-Winterhaven, Orlando, North Port-Sarasota-Braden,
Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, The Villages, Ocala, and Punta Gorda, FL; Houston-The Woodlands-
Sugar Land, Austin-Round Rock, San Antonio-New Braunfels, and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX;
Tucson and Yuma, AZ; Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, San Diego-Carlsbad, Oxnard-Thousand
Oaks-Ventura, San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Stockton-Lodi, and Fresno, CA; and Seattle-Tacoma-
Bellevue, WA.

A few of these secondary destinations are in the Northeast and the Midwest. They include suburban
areas of the New York City, Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD, Columbus, OH,
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI, and Chicago-Naperville, IL-IN-WI metropolitan areas. In addition, as
Figure 6 shows, there are a host of tertiary metropolitan destinations, which experienced net gains
ranging between 100 and 999 elderly migrants between 2006 and 2010.

Seniors also migrated to many smaller, census-defined micropolitan communities between 2006 and
2010. These are communities where the total population is at least 10,000 but less than 50,000.
The micropolitan areas depicted in Figure 6 experienced net gains of between 100 and 499 elderly
migrants between 2006-2010. They include Aberdeen, Pinehurst, Southern Pines, NC; Moultrie and
Calhoun, GA; Pontiac and Jacksonville, IL; Findlay and Freemont, OH; Palatka, Arcadia, and Key West,
FL; Athens, Brenham, Bay City and Del Rio, TX; Lewisburg and Sayre, PA; and Hudson, NY. These are
mostly amenity rich areas with major physical (water, mountains, etc.) and/or cultural attractions.

Considerable aging in place is going on outside of these elderly migration-magnet communities. The
phenomenon is most apparent in rural counties where young people have left and continue to leave
in search of better economic opportunities elsewhere. These counties typically have high older age

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dependency ratios where there are not enough prime working age adults to care for the population
that is too old to work. Nationally, the old age dependency ratio was .232 in 2014. That is, there
were 23 individuals age 65 or older for every 100 individuals between the ages of 18 and 64. But
across the country dependency ratios range from .06 (almost no elderly dependents) to 1.33 (more
elderly dependents than prime working age individuals). Some migration magnet communities have
high dependency ratios (i.e., greater than .40). But, as Figure 7 shows, the majority of communities
with high dependency ratios are located in our nation’s rural heartland.
FIGURE 7
Old Age Dependency Ratios for U.S. Counties, 2014

Source: ACS, 2014

It is not uncommon for these rural aging in place counties with large dependency ratios to have
high concentrations of elderly women who typically live alone. Elsewhere, we have referred to such
areas as widow “hot spots” (Johnson and Parnell, 2013). Examples of such areas in The Carolinas are
illustrated in Figure 8.
FIGURE 8
Distribution of Widowed Elderly Women by County, The Carolinas, 2010

Source: Census, 2010

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These concentrations emerge because the aging process is typically accompanied by major changes
in marital status, family composition, and living arrangements. Seniors, for example, are much more
likely than the total population to be widowed, separated, or divorced (40% versus 18% in 2014).
And elderly women are more likely than elderly men to find themselves in this situation (51.7%
versus 24.5% in 2014) (see Table 1). This disparity exists because women typically live longer and are
less likely than men to remarry following the death of a spouse, legal separation, or divorce (Johnson
and Parnell, 2013).

TABLE 1
Marital Status by Age Group, 2014

Age/Gender Currently Widowed Divorced Separated Never married
Married
Total 15+ 5.9% 11.0% 2.1% 33.3%
Total 65+ 47.7% 25.4% 13.0% 1.3% 5.2%

52.4%

Male 15+ 49.5% 2.6% 9.7% 1.8% 36.5%
Male 65+ 70.3% 11.9% 11.2% 1.4% 5.2%

Female 15+ 46.1% 9.0% 12.3% 2.4% 30.2%
Female 65+ 43.2% 36.2% 14.4% 1.1% 5.1%

Source: American Community Survey 2014

Over the next quarter In these widow hot spots, many of these women live in older homes that are not age friendly, which
century, senior places them at risk of life-threatening slips and falls. And because the dependency ratio is high, they
also often lack the caregiver support that is required to successfully age in place (Redfoot, Feinberg, &
population growth is Houser, 2013).
projected to continue
Looking Ahead
to outpace total
population growth.

Over the next quarter century, senior population growth is projected to continue to outpace total

population growth. Between 2015 and 2040, according to the Census Bureau’s National Population

Projections, the U.S. total population is projected to increase by 18%--from 321 million to 380

million. During this period, the 65+ population is expected to increase much more rapidly—from

47.8 million to 82.3 million, an increase of 72%. And because life expectancy at birth is projected to

increase significantly for both genders and all race/ethnic groups (see Table 2), the 85+ population—

the oldest old—is forecast to grow even faster than the 65+ population (132% versus 72%) over

the next quarter century. By 2040, the 85+ population is projected to reach 14.6 million, up from

6.3 million in 2015. Outpacing both groups, the 100+ population is projected to increase by 168%

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between 2015 and 2040. According to Census Bureau projections, there will be an estimated
193,000 centenarians living in the U.S. by 2040, up from 72,000 in 2015 (Figure 9).

Moreover, due to the increasing role that immigrants are playing in U.S. society today (Johnson, Due to the increasing
2013; Johnson & Kasarda, 2011), the senior population will become far more diverse over the next role that immigrants
quarter century. In all three senior age groups—65+, 85+, and 100+—the foreign born population are playing in U.S.
will increase more rapidly than the native born population. While native born seniors in these three society today, the
age groups are projected to increase by 57%, 123%, and 163%, respectively, the corresponding senior population
numbers for foreign born seniors in these age groups are 173%, 200%, and 200%, respectively. By will become far more
2040, there will be an estimated 64.9 million native born and 17.5 million foreign born seniors living diverse over the next
in the U.S. (Figure 9). quarter century.

FIGURE 9
U.S. Population Projections by Age and Nativity, 2015 and 2040 (in thousands)

Source: 2014 National Population Projections: Summary Table

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TABLE 2
Projected Changes in Life Expectancy at Birth by Gender & Race, 2015 and 2040

Gender 2015 2040
Both Sexes 79.4 83.0
White 80.0 83.5
Black 76.1 80.5
American Indian/Alaskan Native 77.5 81.7
Asian 79.9 83.6
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander 80.1 83.5
2 or more races 79.8 83.0
Hispanic 81.9 83.5

Males 77.1 81.2
White 77.7 81.7
Black 72.9 78.0
American Indian/Alaskan Native 74.7 79.6
Asian 77.5 81.7
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander 77.7 81.6
2 or more races 77.2 81.4
Hispanic 79.6 81.7

Female 81.7 84.8
White 82.2 85.2
Black 78.9 82.8
American Indian/Alaskan Native 80.3 83.8
Asian 82.0 85.2
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander 82.5 85.4
2 or more races 82.2 85.1
Hispanic 84.1 85.2
Source: American Community Survey 2014

In part as a function of these projected changes in the absolute size and composition of the senior
population, the elderly share of the total population is projected to increase from 14.9% in 2015 to
21.7% in 2040. This shift will be evident among both sexes. Elderly men are projected to comprise
19.7% of the male population in 2040, up from 13.3% in 2015. The elderly share of the female
population is projected to increase from 16.4% to 23.6% of the total between 2015 and 2040
(Figure 10). Paralleling these increases in the elderly share of the total, male, and female populations,
there will be corresponding declines in the under 18 and 18-64 shares of the U.S. population—a
potential problem given that the demand for caregivers for the elderly will increase along with the
projected growth of the senior population (Redfoot, Feinberg, & Hauser, 2013).

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FIGURE 10
Percent Distribution of U.S. Population by Gender and Age in 2015 and 2040

Source: U.S. Census, 2014 National Population Projections: Summary Tables.

Current and projected elderly population growth as well as the population redistribution trends that
undergirds this growth creates both challenges and opportunities for our nation (Johnson & Parnell,
2013). A framework for addressing the challenges and the opportunities is presented below.

Responding to Opportunities and Challenges Aging can be, in our
view, a new engine for
Aging can be, in our view, a new engine for innovation, business development, and employment innovation, business
growth in the U.S. economy (Johnson and Parnell, 2013). Opportunities abound in this space to development, and
support and facilitate healthy and active aging on the one hand and to care for the frail elderly on employment growth in
the other. the U.S. economy.

Our framework for leveraging both the opportunities and challenges that accompany an aging
population is depicted in Figure 11. The central proposition is that everything in both the person-
centered (i.e., residential) and the built-environment (i.e., all public, private, and commercial spaces)
must change to accommodate an aging population (Johnson & Parnell, 2013). New ideas and

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innovations, including assistive technologies and the digital literacy training required to use them,
are needed to support seniors as they strive to age successfully in their homes and communities.
New models of care are also required to address the needs of the oldest old (85+ population), the
segment of seniors that is growing most rapidly (Easterbrook, 2014; Christensen & Willingham,
2014; Chalabi, 2013).
FIGURE 11
Aging in Place Framework

Source: Authors

Efforts to create an age friendly U.S. society and economy must reflect and build upon the following
considerations.
First, it must be recognized that most seniors are not obsessing over arthritis, incontinence, or
dementia. Rather, many are working past age 65 and a significant number are launching encore
careers as either traditional business venture or social entrepreneurs. In 2014, 24.2% of the 65 to
74 year old population and 6% of the 75+ population were still working. And research reveals that
the so-called “encore entrepreneurs” start new business ventures at a higher rate than any other
group, including the 20 somethings, and their businesses also have a higher five-year survival rate
than any other group (Ortmans, 2015). Encore entrepreneurs are alleged to have double ESP, that is,
experience, expertise, seasoned judgement, and proven performance, which they leverage to launch
and grow their businesses (Peterson, 2014).
To build upon and expand these mature and highly valuable human capital assets, federal workplace
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polices will have to be revised to accommodate aging workers as well as their younger co-workers
who have elder care responsibilities. The latter group includes more than 10 million millennials. Also,
existing federal programs that are designed to promote or advance encore entrepreneurship must be
expanded in the years ahead (Brooks, 2014; PR Newswire, 2016).

Second, the boomer segment of the senior population possesses enormous consumer purchasing
power—far more than millennials. According to Bloomberg BusinessWeek, boomers constitute a
$15 trillion market opportunity globally and $3 trillion here in the U.S. (Boyle, 2013). But in order to
leverage this market opportunity, businesses must design, label and package products and services
that are age friendly; and in order to do so successfully, they must understand the aging consumer
paradox: Seniors do not like to be singled out and reminded that they are old. “The company that
does a great job of making products for seniors takes great pains not to make products for seniors”
(Boyle, 2013). Firms that will successfully tap this burgeoning boomer market must design products
and services that are equally accessible for all age groups, not just seniors. Given both projected
growth and increased longevity of the senior population, this will, in all likelihood, necessitate further
review of the rules undergirding the Fair Packaging and Labeling Act, which was enacted in 1967
(Federal Trade Commission, 2015).

Third, the challenges of aging, including diminished hearing, vision impairments, and other chronic
disabilities, will require that all public, private, and commercial spaces are re-designed to be age
friendly (Gonyea & Hudson, 2015; Hudson, 2015; Neal, DeLatorre, and Carder, 2015; Phillipson,
2015; Guzman & Harrell, 2015). Two indicators of the nature and magnitude of the problem are
presented here: the proportion of the senior population with one or more disabilities; and the
proportion with independent living constraints.

In 2014, 26% of seniors between 65 and 74 years of age had one or more disabilities. The disability
rate for the 75+ population was 50.3% (Figure 12). And 16% of all seniors, 12% of male seniors,
and 19% of female seniors had independent living constraints in 2014. For all groups, as you would
expect, the percentages were much higher for the 75+ population than for the 65 to 74 year old
population (Figure 13).

Despite these types of infirmities, most seniors prefer to age in place—in their homes and their
communities. In order for them to do so, we must re-design existing and design new communities
that substantially reduce the likelihood of costly and possibly life-threatening slips and falls, as well
as frequent trips to hospital emergency rooms, extended hospital stays, and long-term placements

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FIGURE 12
Absolute Number and Percent of Elderly Population with Disabilities, 2014

Source: ACS
FIGURE 13

Proportion of Seniors with Independent Living Constraints, 2014

Source: ACS

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in institutionalized care settings. Among other characteristics, institutions are easy to visit, transport
systems are universally accessible, pedestrian cross-walks offer extended walk times, street signage is
large and readable, and senior or multigenerational playgrounds and fitness parks are commonplace
in age friendly communities (Guzman and Harrell, 2015).

As Lawler (2015, p. 32) asserts, it is time to pull “big [policy] levers” if we are to scale existing efforts
to build age friendly communities. Those levers fall into three domains: transportation finance,
housing finance, and economic development strategy. More specifically, Lawler (2015) argues that
we must ensure that:

• D ecisions regarding future transportation investments at both the federal and the state levels
of government take into account the realities of longevity;

• P ost-recession housing policy and finance reinvigorate markets for financial products that
allow older adults to safely access the equity in their homes while they remain in place,
increase the availability of affordable rental housing, better coordinate between health
services and housing supports, and integrate aging in place concerns across a range of federal
programs; and

• S trategies are devised that leverage the power of public-private partnerships using financial
products and incentives, tax credits and programs available from local, state, and federal
government—what has been defined as structured multi-layered financing—to integrate
older adults into the economic development strategies of cities, counties, and states.

In addition to creating an age friendly infrastructure, we must build a sustainable elder care support Addressing racial
network, especially for communities where there are high concentrations of seniors living alone (e.g., disparities in the socio-
widow hot spots), suffering with multiple disabilities, and/or having independent living constraints. economic wellbeing of
To do so, we must embrace immigrants, which means enacting comprehensive immigration reform the elderly must be a
(Johnson, 2013), and vigorously enforcing the recent U.S. Department of Labor ruling stipulating that strategic imperative.
home care workers benefit from the same labor protections as other employees (The Editorial Board,
2016).

Finally, addressing racial disparities in the socio-economic wellbeing of the elderly must be a strategic
imperative (see Figure 14). Although they made up a relatively small share of the senior population
in 2014, the poverty rate for black seniors was more than twice as high as the poverty rate for all

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FIGURE 14
Poverty Rate for Total and 65+ Population by Race

Source: ACS, 2014.

seniors (22.5% versus 9.5%) and it was three times as high as the poverty rate for white seniors
(22.5% versus 7.8%). This issue must be high on the nation’s policy agenda, not solely for social
or moral reasons but also as a key driver of the overall health and socio-economic wellbeing of our
nation in a hyper-competitive global economy. Moreover, getting a handle on this problem is vitally
important because, as previously noted, the elderly population will become increasingly more diverse
over the next quarter century.
If policy prescriptions are implemented in these domains, we are convinced that our nation will be a
far more attractive place to live and do business in the years ahead, especially for our rapidly growing
senior population.

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References Cited

Bergal, Jenni, 2016a, “Going Gray: How Aging Baby Boomers Will Challenge Suburbia,” The Pew
Charitable Trusts, June 20, available at http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/
stateline/2016/06/20/going-gray-how-aging-baby-boomers-will-challenge-suburbia

Bergal, Jenni, 2016b, “Can Car-Centric Suburbs Adjust to Aging Baby Boomers?,” The Pew
Charitable Trusts, June 20, available at http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/
stateline/2016/06/20/can-car-centric-suburbs-adjust-to-aging-baby-boomers

Bobo, Lawrence, et.al., 2000, Prismatic Metropolis: Inequality in Los Angeles. New York: Russell
Sage.

Boyle, Matthew, 2013, “Aging Boomers Stump Marketers Eying $15 Trillion Prize,” Bloomberg
Technology, September 17, available at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-09-17/aging-
boomers-befuddle-marketers-eying-15-trillion-prize

Brooks, Chad, 2014, “SBA and AARP Host National Encore Entrepreneur Mentor Month,” Business
News Daily, April 1, available at http://www.businessnewsdaily.com/6168-april-program-advises-
older-entrepreneurs.html.

Chalabi, Mona, 2013, “Super Old: How Many People Live to 100?,” The Guardian, September
27, available at http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/sep/27/super-old-how-many-
centenarians.

Christensen, Jen and Val Willingham, 2014, “Live to 100: Number of Centenarians has Doubled,”
CNN.com, available at http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/04/health/centenarian-death/

Das, Reenita, 2015, “A Silver Tsunami Invades The Health of Nations,” Forbes, August 11, available
at http://www.forbes.com/sites/reenitadas/2015/08/11/a-silver-tsunami-invades-the-health-of-
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Easterbrook, Gregg, 2014, “What happens When We all Live to 100?,” The Atlantic, October,
available at http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/what-happens-when-we-all-live-
to-100/379338/

Federal Trade Commission, 2015, FTC Amends Fair Packaging and labeling Act Rules, September
28, available at https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2015/09/ftc-amends-fair-packaging-
labeling-act-rules

Gonyea, Judith G. and Robert B. Hudson, 2015, “Emerging Models of Age-Friendly Communities: A
Framework for Understanding Inclusion,” Public Policy & Aging Report, 25, 9-14.

Goodman, Steven, 2016, “How Many People Live to 100 Across the Globe?,” The Centenarian,
March 2, available at http://www.thecentenarian.co.uk/how-many-people-live-to-hundred-across-
the-globe.html

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BRACING FOR THE SILVER TSUNAMI

Guzman, Shannon and Rodney Harrell, 2015, “ Increasing Community Livability for People of All
Ages,” Public Policy & Aging Report, 25, 28-29.

Horvath, Mark, 2013, “The Silver Tsunami Is Coming, Are we Ready?,” HUFFPOST IMPACT, August
11, available at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-horvath/the-silver-tsunami-is-com_b_3422603.
html

Hudson, Robert B., 2015, “Making a Home in the City: The Age-Friendly Community Movement,”
Public Policy & Aging Report, 25, 1-3.

Johnson, James H., Jr., and John D. Kasarda, 2011, Six Disruptive Demographic Trends: What Census
2010 Will Reveal, January, Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise, available https://www.
kenan-flagler.unc.edu/~/media/Files/kenaninstitute/UNC_KenanInstitute_2010Census.pdfa

Johnson, James H., Jr., and Allan Parnell, 2013, Aging in Place in the Carolinas: Demographic
Highlights, Programmatic Challenges & Opportunities, Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of
Private Enterprise and The Duke Endowment, available at http://www.nciom.org/wp-content/
uploads/2015/03/Aging-in-Place-White-Paper-2013-v2.pdf

Johnson, James H., Jr., W.C. Farrell, Jr., and C. Guinn, 1997, “Immigration Reform and the Browning
of America,” International Migration Review, Vol. 31, 1029-1069.

Johnson, James, H., Jr., 2013, “The Demographic Case for Immigration Reform,” The Ripon Forum,
Vol. 47, Summer, pp. 18-21.

Lawler, Kathryn, 2015, “Age-Friendly Communities: Go Big or Go Home,” Public Policy & Aging
Report, 25, 30-33.

Larsen, Dana, 2014, “Top 5 Places Where People Live the Longest,” Senior Living Blog, available at
http://www.aplaceformom.com/blog/2013-03-29-where-people-live-the-longest/

Meyer, Julie, 2012, Centenarians: 2010, 2010 Census Special Reports, December, available at http://
www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/reports/c2010sr-03.pdf

Neal, Margaret B., Alan K. DeLaTorre, & Paula C. Carder, “From Planning to Implementation for an
Age-Friendly Portland,” Public Policy & Aging Report, 25, 223-27.

Ortman, Jennifer M., Victoria A. Velikoff, & Howard Hogan, 2014, An Aging Nation: The Older
Population in the United States, Current Population Reports, P25-1140, available at https://www.
census.gov/prod/2014pubs/p25-1140.pdf.

Ortmans, Jonathan, 2015, “Incentives for Silver Startups,” Policy Dialogue on Entrepreneurship,
December 7, available at http://www.kauffman.org/blogs/policy-dialogue/2015/december/incentives-
for-silver-startups.

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FRANK HAWKINS KENAN INSTITUTE OF PRIVATE ENTERPRISE WHITE PAPER

BRACING FOR THE SILVER TSUNAMI

Peterson, Jackie B., 2014, “Solopreneurship and the End of Retirement,” Encore Entrepreneurs to
the Rescue, July 9, available at http://agingandwork.bc.edu/blog/encore-entrepreneurs-to-the-rescue/.
Phillipson, Chris, 2015, “Developing age-Friendly Urban Communities: Critical Issues for Public
Policy,” Public Policy & Aging Report, 25, 4-8.
PR Newswire, 2016, “SBA and AARP Renew ‘Summer of Encore Mentoring’ for Older Entrepreneurs
with Nationwide Events,” The Business Journals, June 7, available at http://www.bizjournals.com/
prnewswire/press_releases/2016/06/07/DC18124.
Redfoot, Donald, Lynn Feinberg, Ari Houser, 2013, The Aging of the baby Boom and the Growing
Care Gap: A Look at Future Declines in the Availability of family Caregivers, AARP Public Policy
Institute, available at http://www.aarp.org/home-family/caregiving/info-08-2013/the-aging-of-the-
baby-boom-and-the-growing-care-gap-AARP-ppi-ltc.html.
Stangler, Dane, 2014, “In Search of a Second Act: The Challenges and Advantages of Senior
Entrepreneurship,” Testimony Before the U.S. Senate Special Committee on Aging & the Senate
Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship, available at http://www.kauffman.org/what-we-
do/research/2014/02/the-challenges-and-advantages-of-senior-entrepreneurship
The Associated Press, 2009, “Centenarians are the fastest-growing age segment: Number of
100-year-olds to hit 6 million by 2050,” New York Daily News, available at http://www.nydailynews.
com/life-style/centenarians-fastest-growing-age-segment-number-100-year-olds-hit-6-million-2050-
article-1.400828
The Economist, February 4, 2010, “The Silver Tsunami,” available at http://www.economist.com/
node/15450864
The Editorial Board, 2016, “Home Care Workers Can Finally Claim Victory,” The New York Times,
July 2, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/03/opinion/sunday/home-care-workers-can-
finally-claim-victory.html?emc=edit_th_20160703&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=13175790&_r=0
Wheeler, Regina B., 2010, “How will the Longevity Boom Impact Our World?,” Everyday Health,
available at http://www.everydayhealth.com/longevity/longevity-boom-and-its-impact.aspx

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FRANK HAWKINS KENAN INSTITUTE OF PRIVATE ENTERPRISE WHITE PAPER

BRACING FOR THE SILVER TSUNAMI

The Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise fosters mutual understanding and
appreciation between members of the private enterprise sector, the academic community, and

their government, and encourages cooperative efforts among these groups.
The Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise

Phone 919.962.8201 • Fax 919.962.8202 • E-mail [email protected]

www.kenaninstitute.unc.edu

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