How to Grow Your
TSP Like A Pro
2017Nowfor
updated
The 15 - Minute Plan That Will Help You
Avoid Running Out of Money in Retirement
E2i FINANCIAL GROUP
What Will I Learn From This Guide?
Most TSP manuals offer nothing but generic advice leaving you more confused than anything after reading
them. This one is different. This TSP guide will provide you with simple, strategic, and straightforward
actions that you can take immediately to grow your TSP like a professional money manager. And don't worry
about whether or not you have sufficient investment knowledge or experience. The advice here will work for
novice and expert TSP investors alike.
How Much Should You Put In Your TSP?
At E2i Financial, we believe that the TSP is a viable way to supplement retirement savings. Some
investment advisors would argue that there are better ways to grow your retirement nest egg since the TSP has
limited investment options and ways to manage risk. While that may be true, we are going to start with the
premise that you can succeed in using your TSP to have a successful retirement.
Once you've agreed that the TSP can be a valuable tool in crafting your ideal retirement, the first question
you need to ask is "How much money should I put in my TSP?" The good news is there is a definitive answer
to this question. Take a look at the following chart* that illustrates the percentages of matching contributions
provided by your TSP:
Agency Contributions to Your Account
(FERS Employees Only)*
You put in: Your agency puts in: And the total
contribution is:
0% Automatic Agency
1% (1%) Matching
2% Contribution
3% Contribution
4%
5% 1% 0% 1%
More than 5%
1% 1% 3%
1% 2% 5%
1% 3% 7%
1% 3.5% 8.5%
1% 4% 10%
1% 4% Your contribution + 5%
*Source: Summary of the Thrift Savings Plan TSBK08 03/17
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Free Money!
The chart shows that if you're a FERS employee, you get a FREE 1% match no matter how much you
contribute to your TSP. The next thing you'll notice is that there is a 100% match up to 3% of your personal
contribution to your TSP:
3% (You) + 1% (Free) + 3% (Free Match) = 7% TOTAL
But it gets even better. The previous chart shows that if you contribute up to 5% of your salary, the total
contribution to your TSP would grow to 10%. Here's how:
5% (You) + 1% (Free) + 4% (Free Match) = 10% TOTAL
So, the answer to how much you should put in your TSP is at least 5% of your salary. The reason is that if
you put in less than 5% you give up a part of the free match available. If you want to put in more than 5%
that's fine. You'll simply grow your retirement nest egg even faster. Just remember that there are IRS limits to
how much you can put in your TSP. You can find those limits at tsp.gov.
Which Funds Do I Choose?
Now that you know how much to put in your TSP, the next obvious question is "Which funds do I pick and
in what ratios?" This is the million dollar question. In order to get an answer we need to take a close look at
each fund to see how it operates.
But we're going to look at each in a different way than you've ever experienced. Rather than analyze them
technically, we're going to look at them strictly in terms of risk vs. reward. In other words, we're going to ask
two questions about each fund:
A) What sort of returns (Reward) can I expect from the fund over a full market cycle?
B) How much can I expect to lose (Risk) in the fund during the next recession?
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The Funds
GFCSIL
The G Fund
The G fund is the most conservative of all the TSP funds. As such, you're not going to get rich investing in
the G fund. The G fund's returns are directly tied to interest rates. So, when interest rates are low, the fund
returns will be low. Conversely, when interest rates are high, returns will be higher.
Here is the G Fund Summary (I.E. How Much Will I Earn? and How Much Can I Expect To Lose?)
RISK SCORE PERFORMANCE SUMMARY*
4RISK SCORE Trailing Period Avg Return (CAGR) Max Drawdown
1 Year 1.82% -0.00%
3 Year 2.06% -0.00%
5 Year 1.91% -0.00%
10 Year 2.63% -0.00%
So, you can see from the summary that you can expect to earn a little over 2% per year over a full market cycle
with the G fund. You can also see that the risk level (Risk Score = 4) is very low. In fact, the G fund is
completely protected against loss as the principal and interest is guaranteed by the US government.
Here's what the return summary of the G Fund would look like over the last 10 years if you had $10K invested:
*returns from tsp.gov How To Grow Your TSP Like A Pro 3
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PERFORMANCE (TOTAL RETURNS) $12,524
$12,524
$11,893
$11,262
$10,631
$10,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
So, you can see from the chart that it would take a little over 30 years to double your investment in the G fund.
That's a long time. Takeaway: You're not going to grow a large TSP account using only the G fund alone.
But, you're not going to lose money either.
The F Fund
The F fund is a bond fund that is the 2nd most conservative fund in the TSP lineup. Whereas the G fund is
without investment risk, you can lose money in the F fund. It does, however, offer higher potential returns
than the G fund. Here is the F fund summary:
RISK SCORE PERFORMANCE SUMMARY*
10RISK SCORE Trailing Period Avg Return (CAGR) Max Drawdown
-3.67%
1 Year 2.91% -3.67%
-3.77%
3 Year 3.49% -4%
5 Year 2.59%
10 Year 4.59%
From the F fund summary, you can expect returns in excess of 4% per year over a full market cycle while
experiencing a relatively low risk score (Risk Score = 10). Here's what an investment of $10,000 would look
like invested in the F fund over the last 10 years:
*returns from tsp.gov as of Dec 2016 800-650-4315
4 How To Grow Your TSP Like A Pro
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PERFORMANCE (TOTAL RETURNS)* $15,381
$15,381
$14,019
$12,658
$11,296
$10,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
So, you can see from the chart that it would take almost 20 years to double your investment in the F fund.
That's quite a long time. Takeaway: Just as with the G fund, the F fund isn't going to make you rich overnight
and you're unlikely to achieve your TSP retirement goals utilizing the F fund by itself.
From a risk perspective, the F fund has a risk score of 10 with a max drawdown (top to bottom loss in any
given time period) of only -4%. Here's what that risk of loss would look like:
MAX DRAWDOWN
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
While the F fund isn't a "get rich quick" fund, you're not going to lose your shirt either. You can see from the
risk chart above that during the last 10 years, the F fund hasn't lost more than 4% in any given time period.
That means it's a very low risk, low volatility fund.
*returns from tsp.gov as of Dec 2016 How To Grow Your TSP Like A Pro 5
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The C Fund
The C fund is a stock or equity fund. We classify it as a high risk, high volatility fund. Naturally, with higher
risk we should expect higher returns, and the C fund provides that. Here is the C fund summary:
RISK SCORE PERFORMANCE SUMMARY*
71RISK SCORE Trailing Period Avg Return (CAGR) Max Drawdown
-1.73%
1 Year 12.01% -8.49%
-8.49%
3 Year 8.95% -50.78%
5 Year 14.73%
10 Year 7.00%
What should jump out at you immediately is the high risk score (Risk Score = 71) of the C fund. You'll recall
that the two low risk G and F funds had risk scores of 4 and 10 respectively. Now, with the C fund, we jump
all the way to 71. That's a rather large leap on the risk scale.
Along with this extra risk comes increased returns. You'll notice from the summary* that the C fund returns
for the last market cycle have averaged right at 7% per year. Here's what those returns look like if you had
invested $10K after the Great Recession of 2008:
PERFORMANCE (TOTAL RETURNS)* $20,664
$20,664
$16,850
$13,037
$9,223
$5,410 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
It's easy to see how the C fund can help you grow your TSP in an effective manner. The increased returns
offered by the C fund allow you to potentially double your investment in only 10 years. The smart TSP
investor who commits to contributing 5% of her salary could potentially see a 400% increase of her initial
investment using the C fund as a primary investment over a 10 year period.
*returns from tsp.gov as of Dec 2016 800-650-4315
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C Fund Risk
While the C fund provides very satisfactory returns, those returns come with very high risk (Risk Score = 71).
The max draw-down for the C fund is almost -51% for the last market cycle. That means that if your TSP had
a value of $200,000 before the Great Recession of 2008, after it would have collapsed to less than $100,000.
That's a significant loss that would make even the most courageous TSP participant panic.
Here's what the risk summary of the C fund looks like on a chart:
MAX DRAWDOWN
0%
-15%
-30%
-45%
-50.78%
-60% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
The drawdown chart for the C fund shows you that it's not for the TSP investor with a faint heart. The
volatility of the C fund almost precludes the successful TSP investor from using the C fund as his only
investment fund. As you will see later, the C fund is an important investment tool, but only when used
appropriately.
The S Fund
The S fund is a "Small Cap" stock fund. It is the most aggressive fund in the TSP lineup. In other
words, it has the highest return potential of any of the TSP funds. By now, you know that high returns
mean high risk. And this is definitely the case with the S fund.
Take a look at the S fund risk / return summary on the following page:
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S Fund Risk/Reward Summary:
RISK SCORE PERFORMANCE SUMMARY*
79RISK SCORE Trailing Period Avg Return (CAGR) Max Drawdown
1 Year 16.35% -3.84%
3 Year 6.78% -20.14%
5 Year 14.84% -20.14%
10 Year 8.13% -51.9%
The risk score for the S fund is 79. As such, we would classify the S fund as a "high risk, high volatility" fund.
With higher risk, TSP investors should expect higher returns and we see that with the S fund. According to
tsp.gov, the returns of the S fund during the last full market cycle have averaged over 8% compounded
annually. That's not bad.
With returns like that, the S fund could potentially double a TSP participant's initial investment in a little less
than 9 years. Those are excellent returns that back the argument that the S fund could be a useful arrow in the
TSP investor's quiver, so to speak.
S Fund Risk
While the S fund has a respectable performance history, the fund comes with significant risk. Take a look at
the following max-drawdown summary:
MAX DRAWDOWN
0%
-15%
-30%
-45%
-60% -51.9%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
*returns from tsp.gov as of Dec 2016 800-650-4315
8 How To Grow Your TSP Like A Pro
E2i FINANCIAL GROUP
You can see from the max draw-down chart on the previous page, that the S fund lost almost 52% during the
Great Recession of 2008. You may have experienced some of those losses first hand and are only now
recovering from them. If not, can you imagine how you would feel to see over half of your TSP go down the
drain in a little less than a year? Gut-wrenching stuff.
With this much risk, the S fund is like a firecracker. If you're going to light it, you had better exercise some
caution while doing so. In a few moments, we'll show you how to effectively use the S fund to your
advantage.
I Fund
The I Fund is an international stock or equity fund. In terms of risk/reward, the I fund is very similar to the S
fund and we would classify it as a "high risk, high volatility" fund. Take a look at the I fund summary:
RISK SCORE PERFORMANCE SUMMARY*
88RISK SCORE Trailing Period Avg Return (CAGR) Max Drawdown
-3.96%
1 Year 2.10% -18.75%
-18.75%
3 Year -1.27% -57.37%
5 Year 6.87%
10 Year 1.02%
From the I fund summary, you can see that we have the highest risk fund in the entire TSP with a risk score of
88. Since international stock indexes haven't done as well as U.S. indexes in the last 8 years or so, the returns
of this fund appear weak. As of this current edition, however, the I fund is performing quite well, so the fund
indeed has potential during certain market conditions.
The Great Recession was particularly harsh to international stocks and as a result, the I fund suffered greatly
through 2008-2009. Take a look at the following draw-down chart that shows the devastation:
MAX DRAWDOWN
0%
-17.5%
-35%
-52.5%
-70% 2008 -57.37% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2009 2010
*returns from tsp.gov as of Dec 2016 How To Grow Your TSP Like A Pro 9
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The Problem
The main problem with the TSP is that it only has 5 primary funds. Compared to most 401(k) plans that
have upwards of 20 fund options, the TSP offers a rather limited menu. What's worse, for the TSP investor
trying to balance the risk/reward ratio, there's a large chasm between the "low risk" funds and the "high risk,
high volatility" funds:
G F ??? C S I
RISK SCORE RISK SCORE RISK SCORE RISK SCORE RISK SCORE
4RISK SCORE 10RISK SCORE 71RISK SCORE 79RISK SCORE 88RISK SCORE
There's a big difference between a risk score of 10 and a risk score of 71. If you had $100,000 in your TSP
before the Great Recession of 2008, it would have been the difference between losing only $4,000 vs. losing
over $50,000! To solve this problem of a huge "risk chasm" between funds, the TSP created the Lifecycle
funds in 2005.
The L Funds
The Lifecycle Funds are not separate funds with unique investment offerings apart from the 5 main funds.
Rather, each is made up of the combination of the five individual TSP funds (G, F, C, S, and I) and maintains
a ratio that attempts to lower investment risk as the TSP participant gets closer to retirement. The question is
whether or not combining the funds makes sense from a risk/reward perspective. Let's take a look at one of
the Lifecycle funds to see if it achieves it's objective:
RISK SCORE PERFORMANCE SUMMARY* L 2020 Fund
48RISK SCORE Trailing Period Avg Return (CAGR) Max Drawdown
1 Year 5.47% -1.48%
3 Year 3.94% -7.57%
5 Year 7.55% -7.57%
10 Year 4.62% -35.01%
The L 2020 Fund Summary shows a risk score of 48. This is indeed lower than the risk scores of the C,S, and
I funds. But notice the returns for the last 10 years - only +4.62% over a full market cycle. You would expect
that with a risk score of 48 that the L 2020 fund would provide higher returns than the F fund (Risk Score of
10), yet this is not the case. The returns of the L 2020 are virtually identical to the F fund, yet the L 2020 fund
has a much higher risk profile (max drawdown of -35% in 2008). This is simply inefficient. Why would a TSP
investor risk up to 35% losses in the L 2020 fund when the F fund provides the same returns with less risk?
*returns from tsp.gov as of Dec 2016 800-650-4315
10 How To Grow Your TSP Like A Pro
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The Solution
After evaluating the entire TSP fund lineup it looks like the only way to earn attractive long-term returns is to
take on a great degree of risk. But, is that true? Or is there an alternative?
We promised at the beginning of this guide that we would provide you with a method to manage your TSP like
a professional money manager. And now we're going to deliver on our promise. At E2i Financial, we have
developed a strategy designed for TSP participants seeking a long term systematic approach to risk
management.
The EP Strategy
The primary objective of the EP Strategy is to avoid large losses. It seeks to achieve this by limiting
investment in the stock market to clearly-defined time periods when the odds of positive returns are
significantly higher than average. These time periods are called "dynamic zones".
Our research has identified two cyclical forces which significantly and routinely affect the distribution of stock
market returns. The first is the annual earnings forecasting cycle and the second is the four-year presidential
election cycle.
Earnings Forecasting Cycle
There is substantial research that exists that shows that most supposed "experts" are often wrong when it
comes to forecasting corporate earnings. Not only are they often incorrect, they tend to be overly optimistic
about their projections. This bias towards optimism is what creates the annual forecasting cycle.
This cycle may be partially responsible for stock market returns from late October to early May being
significantly higher than returns from June to late October. Once "expert" confidence falls in the 3rd quarter
after the unwarranted optimism of the first two quarters, investors become concerned and tend to re-organize
their portfolios. This is particularly true for institutional investors who are overly influenced by calendar-year
comparisons to investment benchmarks. This might explain why most of the historical bear markets and large
market corrections occur between June and November.
Take a look at these long-term Dow Industrials statistics over a 66-year period from 1950 through December
2015 that back up this hypothesis:
• The Dow gained 17,992.80 points during the six-month “dynamic zone” (November through April).
• The Dow lost 433.49 points during the six-month “idle zone” (May through October).
• The Dow was down only 21% of the time between November and May.
• A $10,000 investment only during the November to May “dynamic zone” grew to $853,577.
• A $10,000 investment only during the May to November “idle zone” shrank to $9,681.
Source: Stock Trader’s Almanac 2017, Wiley
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The Four-Year Presidential Cycle
The presidential election cycle encourages a cyclical bias which has been operating in the U.S. market since the
formation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. Specifically, the election cycle tends to shift returns into a 15-month
period beginning with the mid-term elections.
The five-quarter period beginning in the fourth quarter of the president’s second year has only been down
once since 1931, generating an average return of 23.9% plus dividends (Dow Industrials, ending 2015). This
15-month period accounts for almost all of the total appreciation of the market since the Great Depression.
The average daily return during this period is 6.1 times greater than the average daily return during all other
months. We call this period the election cycle “dynamic zone”.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CYCLE
QUARTERLY % CHANGES
Dow Jones Industrials (1933 to 2015)
Post-Election Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year
Mid-Term -0.4% 1.3% 0.4% 1.8% 3.1%
Pre-Election 0.0% 0.4% -0.6% 7.4% 7.2%
Election 5.6% 5.1% 2.0% 2.4% 15.9%
1.0% 0.6% 0.9% 2.1% 4.7%
The mid-term elections cause the political class to focus on the next presidential election. This shift in focus is
dramatic. In the first two years of the presidential term the dominant party attempts to pass legislation with
significant social importance and increased governmental activism. Such changes are generally resisted by
investors, who tend to be cautious during periods of uncertainty. After the mid-term elections, however, the
political class becomes less aggressive and more fiscally conservative.
During this period there is no mention of higher taxes, increased regulation on businesses, or large legislative
agendas. The dominant party knows that economics will play a large part in determining the presidential
election and they pull out all the stops to make the U.S. economy vibrant during the election year. Naturally,
this plays well on Wall Street. Take a look at the election cycle "dynamic zone" and it's reduced volatility:
1,200.0 ELECTION CYCLE DYNAMIC ZONE
1,000.0 Cumulative Returns for 25 1/4 Years Ended December 31, 2015
1,036.2 - Election Cycle Dynamic Zone
1,032.7 - S&P:500
800.0
Returns 600.0
400.0
200.0
0.0
19901991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Disclosure: Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Indexes are not investment vehicles. The returns illustrated above are not returns of any E2i
Financial Group strategy and do not include cost of funds or other expenses. The illustration is designed to quantify the effect of a certain time period on representative
market indexes. The 1990-91 data uses the NASDAQ Composite Index. The NASDAQ 100 was created in 1991.
12 How To Grow Your TSP Like A Pro 800-650-4315
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Bonds
The EP Strategy is allocated to bonds when not positioned in equities. Every four-year presidential cycle,
the strategy invests in bonds for three separate periods totaling 14 months - the three "idle zones" in years one,
two, and four.
The fixed income component of the EP Strategy is limited to an intermediate-term bond index fund. The
main goal of this stage of the strategy is to earn monthly returns in excess of money market returns with
relatively low risk.
The EP Strategy Allocation Schedule
You have now arrived at the moment you've been anticipating. The recipe for potentially increasing your TSP
returns with less risk is now in front of you. You've examined how each of the TSP funds has a different risk
score and you've learned how the annual forecasting cycle and presidential cycle affect stock market returns.
Now it's time to apply what you've learned.
TSP EP Strategy Asset Allocation Schedule
Based on the Four-Year Election Cycle
Year 1 S Fund F Fund S Fund
(Post Election)
Year 2 S Fund F Fund 50% C Fund
(Mid-Terms) 50% S Fund
Year 3 50% C Fund / 50% F Fund
(Pre-Election)
Year 4 S Fund F Fund S Fund
(Election)
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Summary
Ultimately, the EP Strategy™ can be seen as a simple formula for managing a Thrift Savings Plan efficiently
over time. Market risk is assumed only during periods when a positive market climate is expected. This
expectation is based upon two forces which are well-defined and which reflect causal mechanisms at work on
investor psychology. Decades of supporting return data provide empirical evidence for their influence on
market returns. For TSP investors seeking to boost returns over TSP bond funds alone, the lower risk equity
component of the EP Strategy™ has the potential to increase total returns significantly.
What Now? (Ages 59 & Under, Active Employee)
If you're age 59 or under, you should consider re-allocating your TSP according to the schedule on the
previous page. Then, continue to follow the schedule each year until you reach age 59. If you need assistance
with reallocating, or just have a question you'd like answered, email or call us directly at:
[email protected] or Call (800) 650-4315
What Now? (Ages 60 & Up, Active Employee)
If you're age 60 or over, you have a special provision in your TSP that allows you a one-time rollover to
an Individual Retirement Account (IRA). This special rollover provision is called an "In-Service
Withdrawal". Why would you consider setting up your own IRA once you turn 60? The answer is quite
simple. With an IRA you will be able to manage risk more effectively than any one TSP strategy, even the
one presented in this guide. And the closer you get to retirement, managing risk becomes the
paramount factor that will determine whether or not you run out of money in retirement.
For assistance with setting up your IRA, email or call us directly today:
[email protected] or Call (800) 650-4315
What Now? (Separated from Service, All Ages)
If you have separated from service, you are allowed to rollover your entire TSP account into your own IRA.
For the same reason as those age 60 and over, rolling your TSP into an IRA will allow you to manage risk
more effectively while you build your retirement portfolio. Our firm can handle 100% of the rollover process
for you, that includes all of the paperwork and transfers. Email us at [email protected] or Call us
directly at (800) 650-4315.
14 How To Grow Your TSP Like A Pro 800-650-4315
Disclosures to The EP StrategyTM
The EP StrategyTM is a Thrift Savings Plan asset allocation strategy based on the annual forecasting cycle and
the four-year presidential election cycle. The strategy determines, in advance, when to be invested in stock
index funds and when to be invested in bond funds. The investment components of the strategy are: The
TSP F, C, and F funds. Over the course of the four-year presidential election cycle, the strategy is invested 29%
of the time in bonds and 71% of the time in stocks.
The description of the construction of The EP Strategy™ is included in this guide.
Cautions: Any recommendation or opinion made in this document may not be suitable for all investors. The
information contained herein does not constitute and should not be construed as investment advice, an offering
of investment advisory services, or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance. No matter how positive the strategy’s returns have been
over any time period, there can be no guarantee that the seasonal factors affecting the stock market will persist or
that they will have the same intensity as past time periods.
Index Information: The historical performance results of indexes are provided exclusively for comparison
purposes only, as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual TSP participant in
determining whether the performance of an E2i strategy meets, or continues to meet, his/her investment
objective(s). Different types of investments and/or investment strategies involve varying levels of risk, and there
can be no assurance that any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investment strategies
presented by E2i) will be either suitable or profitable for an individual's portfolio.
E2i Financial Group, LLC is a state registered investment advisor. Such registration does not imply a certain skill or
training and no inference to the contrary should be made. Information pertaining to E2is advisory operations, services, and fees
is set forth in E2i’s current Form ADV Part 2A, a copy of which is available from E2i upon request.
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Facts About E2i Financial Group to Compare With Your Current Adviser
E2i Financial Group Your Investment Adviser
Your portfolio is developed by your particular ?
needs, considering your individual risk score, time-
frame, income needs, and different elements
specific to you.
You get your own personalized Investment Advisor ?
who will pro-actively service your portfolio and
keep you up to date at all times.
You will get to know the actual people making ?
decisions on your account on a daily basis and will
be able to communicate with them regularly.
Your portfolio is managed by a select group of ?
investment advisors that have a combined
experience of over 100 years.
Your firm is a "Pure Fiduciary" and not a "Fake ?
Fiduciary". Your firm actually must work in your
best interest and doesn't "dual register".
You get a disciplined, tactical, investment strategy ?
that allows you to make money whether the market
goes up, down, or sideways.
You can take advantage of an active management ?
strategy that seeks to limit draw-downs during
recessions.
You won't be limited by an outdated "buy and ?
hold" strategy or "modern portfolio theory"
strategy that stomachs large draw-downs whenever
the market suffers a correction.
You'll have simple, straightforward fees that blend ?
our interests together with yours. The better your
portfolio performs, the better we both do.
E2i Financial Group, LLC
13850 Ballantyne Corporate Place, Suite 500
Charlotte, NC 28277
www.e2ifinancial.com
(800) 650-4315