BCIS International Affairs Review - Issue 2

BCIS International Affairs Review
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022

POWER DYNAMICS
IN THE INDIAN OCEAN

Economic and Energy Crisis Rises:
Sri Lanka Seeks Dividends through
Strategic Partnerships and Regional Powers

by Thilini Goonasekara, Senior Researcher
and Chamika Wijesuriya, Research Officer
Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies

Today, Sri Lanka faces its worst economic unable to purchase the necessary fuel for transport,
crisis in history. The present crisis can businesses, and household consumption. The Sri
be attributed to the mismanagement of Lankan government has sought bilateral, regional,
government reserves and poor public policy and multilateral partnerships and assistance to
decisions that have led to a political crisis with overcome this crisis.
people taking to the streets demanding a change
of political leadership, political accountability, From 2009 to 2018, Sri Lanka’s trade deficit
and justice for the state of the economy. The skyrocketed from US $ 5 billion to US$12 billion.
economic crisis and forex shortage in Sri Lanka In the meantime, foreign debt has increased up to
have, among other things, also resulted in a critical
energy shortage as the government has been Contd. on page 2

In this issue: • Stability of the Indian Ocean Region: Reality of the
QUAD and the Chinese Presence
• Economic and Energy Crisis Rises: Sri Lanka Seeks by Shayani Jayasinghe
Dividends through Strategic Partnerships and Regional
Powers • The Colombo Security Conclave: Prospects and
by Thilini Goonasekera and Chamika Wijesuriya Challenges for Cooperation in the IOR
by Nandeeni Patel
• Infographic: Energy Poverty in Sri Lanka
by Chamika Wijesuriya, Azeeza Sheriffdeen • Video Interview with Dr. David Brewster on Power
and Kaveen Peiris Dynamics in the Indian Ocean
by Shayani Jayasinghe
• The Impact of the Energy Crisis on the Indian Ocean States
by Chamika Wijesuriya • Article Annotation: Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean
by Chamika Wijesuriya and Mihiri Senanayake
• AUKUS towards a Safe Indo-Pacific Region
by Thilini Goonasekara

Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean 1

BCIS International Affairs Review
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022

Economic and Energy Crisis Rises… monetary support through credit lines and material

Contd. from page 1 assistance to Sri Lanka during the latter’s economic

US$51 billion due to market borrowings and loans crisis. At a time when the present economic

taken for development projects. The repayment of crisis has almost stalled the debt-dependent and

foreign debt has taken a large toll on the country’s unsustainable economy of Sri Lanka, India’s

credit lines and proposals for energy projects and
foreign reserves. This condition has been worsened partnerships have been most welcome.
by the recent tax cuts, interest rate revisions, and
Some key agreements that India has forged
a complete ban on imports of all fertilisers and
with Sri Lanka that bear witness to India’s interest
pesticides. As a result, in 2022, the country’s forex
in sustained energy projects and partnerships in
reserves shrunk to US $150 million.1
Sri Lanka are as follows: Renewal of the contract
Currently, the forex shortage has inhibited the
with the Indian Oil
government’s ability
Corporation and the
to import essential While India plays a crucial role
granting of approval
items including fuel,
medicines, and food assisting Sri Lanka’s economy to build a strategic oil
items. The petroleum, with such strategic collaborations, storage depot; signing
diesel, and cooking China also plays a cautious role of agreement to jointly
develop a majority of the
gas shortage has posed maintaining its partnership with
immense pressure on tanks in oil tank farm in
the Sri Lankan people.
Sri Lanka. Trincomalee; signing of
an agreement with the
Fuel shortage has also
Adani Group to build
affected the country’s power sector. Approximately
Colombo West Container Terminal; the signing of
65% of the island state’s electricity generation
a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between
depends on coal and oil imports. Thus, the country
CEB and India’s Adani Green Energy Ltd to construct
has also been experiencing severe power cuts that
Mannar-Pooneryn wind power plants; and a proposed
have proven to be detrimental across all sectors.
joint venture solar power plant in Sampur.2

Sri Lanka Looks for Short-Term Solutions While India plays a crucial role assisting Sri

This phase of Sri Lanka’s international relations Lanka’s economy with such strategic collaborations,

show a shift of its strategic pendulum from China China also plays a cautious role maintaining its

to India, strengthening India’s aim of attaining a partnership with Sri Lanka. China has stepped up its

‘free and open Indo-Pacific.’ Since independence, assistance through the donation of medical supplies

Sri Lanka typically followed a non-aligned policy and rice. China was Sri Lanka’s top lender and its

in foreign relations and there was an evident tilt biggest source of foreign direct investment (FDI).

from this stance towards China under the Rajapaksa The recent predicament of returning the Chinese

regime. However, with the recent incidents, itis fertiliser ship and Beijing’s reluctance to accept

evident that India is overtaking China with its Sri Lanka’s request to restructure its loans have

1  Chowdhury, A., “The Sri Lanka Economic Crisis: 2  "Instead of Credit Lines, India Pushing for Projects here",
India’s Response,” Observer Research Foundation, The Sunday Times, June 26, 2022, Available at https://www.
June 01, 2022. Available at: < https://www.orfonline. sundaytimes.lk/220626/news/instead-of-credit-lines-india-
org/expert-speak/the-sri-lanka-economic-crisis-indias- pushing-for-projects-here-487298.html [Accessed June 27, 2022].
response/> [Accessed June 15, 2022]

2 Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean

BCIS International Affairs Review
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022

disrupted the close relationship between Sri Lanka Lanka to support the worst-hit by the crisis and the

and China. This opened the door for India to revive necessary technical facilitation for the monetary and

their relationship with Sri Lanka. To date, India policy reforms needed by Sri Lanka to comply with

has spent approximately USD 3 billion to support the International Monetary Fund (IMF) guidelines.

Sri Lanka’s economy and strengthen the country’s US Ambassador to Sri Lanka emphasised that their

defence system. Amidst the growing partnership effort is to promote sustainable economic growth and

between India and good governance in Sri

Sri Lanka, Chinese It would also be wise for Sri Lankan Lanka. Most recently, the
Foreign Minister leadership to look for solutions Australian government
Wang Yi has expressed within fiscal and monetary reforms has announced US
‘security concerns’ $ 50 in development

from a ‘third party’ to as well as constitutional reforms assistance, which is to

their relationship with to address deeper political and be channelled towards
Sri Lanka. Chinese institutional failures of the country. meeting urgent food and
investments in the healthcare needs in Sri

country did not generate Lanka.

revenue as expected. As The recovery process of the Sri Lankan economy
a result, Sri Lanka had to lease Hambantota Port to a looks bleak with countless challenges ahead affecting
Chinese company for 99 years with the provision of ability to achieve debt sustainability, breach its
extending it for another 99 years. external trade deficit, build up the country’s reserves

Future Assistance and Corporation with and maintain the supply of essential goods and

International Guidelines services for the public. IMF’s assistance is expected

Sri Lanka already to play a crucial role in the recovery, pending Sri

owes over US $ 51 Lanka's submission of

billion to government As people in the streets clamour for a credible and coherent
creditors, such as India, ‘system change’ and ‘power to the strategy to restore
China, and Japan, and people’, the least the government macroeconomic stability
the country no longer in the country. It would

can pay the accrued can do is work towards finding a also be wise for Sri

interest. Considering progressive and transparent path Lankan leadership to
the economic crisis, towards economic recovery that look for solutions within
food and fuel shortages, allows its citizens equal opportunity fiscal and monetary
and rising protection reforms as well as

concerns, the United and human rights. constitutional reforms to

Nations (UN) launched a address deeper political

joint Humanitarian Needs and institutional failures

and Priorities (HNP) plan to assist the worst-hit 1.7 of the country. As people in the streets clamour for

million Sri Lankans. Countries including Japan, ‘system change’ and ‘power to the people’, the least

Bangladesh, South Korea, and Iran have stepped up the government can do is work towards finding a

to provide medical, food, and monetary assistance progressive and transparent path towards economic

to Sri Lanka. The United States has announced recovery that allows its citizens equal opportunity and

it will provide US $ 6 million in assistance to Sri human rights.

Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean 3

BCIS International Affairs Review
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022

Energy Poverty and Social Equity in
Developing Countries

Energy Poverty in Sri Lanka

A study consisting of 21,474 households, across all 25 districts in Sri Lanka
reveal 71.6% of incidences of energ y pover ty.

Contributing Factors

Linacpkowofersaunstdaiennaebrigliytys,eecftfoicrise.ncy and development The proporteionneargl ycopnotvriebrutytiionnSsrtioLmanukltaidimensional

Lelaeccktriocfitya pcoriscte-raenfldecstuivpepltyarcifofsts.ystem, high Lack of access to modern
fIancctoomrs.e, socio-demographic and geographical cooking fuel
cInotnesruamliapteinoenrgpyatwtearsntsa.ge and unsustainable Lack of ownership of
CElnimeragtye(cRhEan) gseouimrcpeas.ct on Renewable computers
gtEoexntpheerenaotsviiovener .reelelicatnrciceitoyftafroifsfsilisfumealsinfloyraetntreibrguyted
Lack of household service
appliance

Other

0% 20% 40% 60%

Unrealised Potential for Renewables

Overall 11600 MW technical potential for 1(s0mgaelloogrramphediciaulmlocscaatiloe)nfsohragveeostohmerempaol teennetriagly.
energy generation from solar and wind power.

gArbaduniednatn) tRoEcepaontebnatsieald. (wave, tidal and salinity Potential for bio-energy.

Electricity generation by source Smal Hydro Net Capacity Change in 2020 (MW)
in 2019 in Sri Lanka Solar (on rooftops)

Other renewable Wind
5% Solar (on land)

Coal Biomass Non-renewable Hydro and marine
34% 0 0

Hydro Solar Wind
30% +124
+15

Oil Bioenergy Geothermal
31%
Totcalapreancbeiytwy2aa0bd2ld0eiteinoenrgy 0 0

Recommendations to Move Forward

4 Power DynaRmuilcess ianndthreegInuldaitaionnOs tcoeaenliminate barriers, and incentivise RE generation.
Increase technical expertise through education and training

Oil Bioenergy Geothermal
31% 0 BCIS Internat0ional Affairs Review
Totcalapreancbeiytwy2aa0bd2ld0eiteinoenrgy
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022

Recommendations to Move Forward

Rules and regulations to eliminate barriers, and incentivise RE generation.

Increase technical expertise through education and training

Promote efficiency and transparency in procurement procedures.

Foreign partnerships and public–private partnerships for RE.
Etrannhsainticoendtsoucplpeaonrtetnoeorgvyercome financial and social barriers for
eEnnesrugryerceolantfeldicpt rsoenjescittsiv. ity, justice and democratic participation in
Ewnitchonueriagghebvoiraibnlge ccorousnst-rbieosr.der energy transfer and cooperation
Dpreocjeecnttsraalnizde eenneerrggyy sptroordaguectsiyosntebmysi.ntroducing more microgrids
Increase research and development.

Involving local community in RE projects. Awareness building among consumers.

References
Dasanayaka C.H., Perera Y.S., Abeykoon C., “Investigating the Effects of Renewable Energy Utilization towards the Economic
Growth of Sri Lanka: A Structural Equation Modelling Approach”, Cleaner Engineering and Technology, 2022, Available at
www.sciencedirect.com/journal/cleaner-engineering-and-technology [Accessed May 2, 2022].
“DIMO complete first fully operational microgrid system at Moratuwa University”, Daily News, May 13, 2022, Available at
https://www.dailynews.lk/2022/05/13/business/278789/dimo-complete-first-fully-operational-microgrid-system-moratuwa
[Accessed May 2, 2022].
International Renewable Energy Agency, “Country Profile: Sri Lanka”, September 29, 2021, Available at
https://www.irena.org/IRENADocuments/Statistical_Profiles/Asia/Sri%20Lanka_Asia_RE_SP.pdf [Accessed May 2, 2022].
Jayasinghe, M., Selvanathan, E., and Selvanathan, S., “Energy Poverty in Sri Lanka”, Energy Economics, 2022, Available at
101.105450.10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105450 [Accessed May 2, 2022].
Konara , K.M.G.K. and Tokai, A., “Integrated evaluation of energy system in Sri Lanka: a multidimensional sustainability
perspective”, International Journal of Sustainable Energy, 2022, Available at
https://doi.org/10.1080/14786451.2022.2039140 [Accessed May 2, 2022].
Mudugamuwa, M., “Crisis behind the power crisis”, The Morning, April 1, 2019, Available at
https://www.themorning.lk/crisis-behind-the-power-crisis/ [Accessed May 2, 2022].
Nagahawatte, R., “Sri Lankan Power Crisis and Future Energy Management”, The Official E-Newsletter of the Institution of Engineers
Sri Lanka, 2020, Available at
https://iesl.lk/SLEN/47/Energy%20Management.php. [Accessed May 2, 2022].
Nijam, H. and Nazar, M.C.A., “Sustainable Development Goals on Energy and Environment: Key Issues
in Sri Lanka”, Asian Journal of Environment and Ecology, 2017, Vol (5), pp 1-8, Available at
10.9734/AJEE/2017/36556. [Accessed May 2, 2022].
Rodarigo, A., “Renewable resources renew Sri Lanka”, Daily News, 2020, Available at
https://www.dailynews.lk/2020/09/08/features/228107/renewable-resources-renew-sri-lanka [Accessed May 2, 2022].

Infographic by: Chamika Wijesuriya, Azeeza Sheriffdeen and Kaveen Peiris, BCIS

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Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean 5

BCIS International Affairs Review
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022

The Impact of the Energy Crisis
on the Indian Ocean States

By Chamika Wijesuriya, Research Officer, BCIS

Providing inclusive access to affordable National Economies: Stalling under Energy
energy to people has become a challenge Deficiencies
for most states in the Indian Ocean
Region (IOR), resulting in a growing need for Although the percentage of households with

novel energy sources. Many studies have been electricity in Sri Lanka increased to almost 100%

by 2018, the high cost of electricity excluded
conducted regarding energy scarcities and related the poor from using electricity for light and
tensions in the region. Sri Lankan households,
household chores. Sri Lanka’s electricity supply is
as of 2018, experienced a moderate level of
generated mostly through non-renewable energy
energy poverty. The lack of access to modern
sources (coal: 34% and oil: 31%). The distribution
cooking fuel was the
of electricity was also
largest contributor
to these levels of Sri Lanka’s energy crisis has significantly affected
energy poverty. The resulted in socio-economic and by the recent shortage
of fuel. The Sri
economic crisis of political impacts. Several countries Lankan government

2022 has exacerbated in the IOR reflect similar energy and private sectors
this situation to a
fuel crisis with many insecurities and the significance of were both affected
queuing in lines for energy networks in the region have due to the shortage
of energy brought
gas, oil, and kerosene come to the forefront.
for consumption about by the economic

at households and crisis. Although the

government was
businesses. Sri Lanka’s energy crisis has resulted frantically searching for RE, the switch to RE
in socio-economic and political impacts. Several
is not possible overnight. Energy demand in
countries in the IOR reflect similar energy
India is also projected to increase significantly
insecurities and the significance of energy
over the coming decades, with primary energy
networks in the region have come to the forefront. consumption being forecasted to quadruple by
Novel energy sources including renewable
2040. Soaring electricity demand has already
energy (RE) and the forging of new energy trade
outstripped India’s available energy supply,
partnerships and networks are being explored in
causing widespread power outages. Pakistan has
the light of this catastrophic situation.
also experienced a liquefied natural gas (LNG)

The Sri Lankan energy crisis has resulted in shortage marked by rolling blackouts this year,

socio-economic and political impacts. Several and Bangladesh has recently run out of credit to

countries in the IOR reflect similar energy buy LNG at the soaring spot market prices.

insecurities and the significance of energy networks

in the region have come to the forefront.

6 Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean

BCIS International Affairs Review
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022

Energy Networks: Changing Power Dynamics in rising Chinese presence in the region. Australia is

IOR looking to fill Asia’s energy gap amid the Ukraine

Robert Kaplan’s argument that the Indian crisis, especially LNG. There have also been

Ocean was the world’s preeminent energy and trade studies regarding cross-border energy trade (CBET)
between India and Sri Lanka with the support of
interstate seaway and was becoming the centre
the U.S. Department of
of gravity of world
State’s Bureau of South
politics, especially as Western countries have shifted and Central Asian Affairs
India and China enter their attention towards geopolitical Regional Connectivity
into a dynamic great-
power rivalry, is relevant tensions and maritime security in the Programme.
Accordingly, India’s
to the contemporary IOR, through security alliances and surplus power, including
context of the region. diplomatic relations. from rapidly expanding
India’s economic rise is
wind and solar
increasingly dependent
generation, provides
on the access to energy supplies and raw material.
an incentive for it to increase investment returns
In this light, the interests in and surrounding the
through exports, and Sri Lanka will benefit from
Indian Ocean have become important for India.
access to India’s large and diverse power system.
This is reflected in India’s maritime strategy and

its sensitivity regarding the expansion of Chinese Energy Outlooks: Greater Sensitivity to Power

influence in the Indian Ocean. Western countries Dynamics and Conflict

have shifted their attention towards geopolitical For many Indian Ocean states including India,
tensions and maritime security in the IOR, through the energy crisis has been a wake-up call to invest
security alliances and diplomatic relations. in energy resilience and grid planning, and make

Recently, the United States (US) pledged the switch to cleaner RE. The International Agency

support to Southeast Asian leaders to achieve

clean energy and maritime security in the face of Contd. on page 8

Vehicle queues at petrol stations in Colombo have become a frequent phenomenon under the prevailing fuel shortage. © 2022 Daily FT

Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean 7

BCIS International Affairs Review
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022

Contd. from page 7 role in facilitating the renewable energy transition,

for Solar Technology and Applications (INSTA) especially across South Asia. It is also crucial to be

IhtetiahmASLhcsnooOexnlaiatasigetacrdsmhatRnsmnthhaecoakeifAelamilnhricsbaislstnngdeiieebsiseadaaenhin.rtivctnnyssatttciSsaesoidcontalttooteiluhanacceRaauIsmtdamocdnlres(EthieodeIslneittaRsOipcihaingbshsavnearERceaeaegtrSthhrrrtovaAeighearamtostertiaylevi)lsiioav..aeesfnnruTdausytlhtinuaoeoelrnfsreoa.IpbnHaaIThholdenilorcaiighacwtehdhronieleaeniiitsOvgea.hIeehhvceOSrsthae,ecvsattsRahhneacRaacvhtaARntooeeEgtpilromsiaiasnsvrpditgeisoneanettatrctlaealhmsuteidhobfianuintvesntajtgiuhihenvuoonesoditSturdtuttjaerterorlsuanndh.iisncdcettbiaseLasdmcieu-torbsiaaedoneatgccnnsfoyhohleeikitrandcteondtsava-riReesesmteedmasEopnentseasiih.nnircdrtciotchvhuo,eegndihffenaltcwwaLehtmirhtconncaehaaiaeetrdvmnotnnersmhiepcoks,prmcporriufoaeoagtarupb.uisntorutyotehptliUnmmnoiicntieticchstnrp,tecopriiaedaplenciietaneeainneaatcsrossl.mdr,teaotliniriTyrlnctnociloigieohdooksionicypduunefcenrtoarllahcasopdtSetflrtaeiufoairiotocsitssiniortse-n,

References Palgrave Macmillan, 2022, Available at https://doi.
org/10.1007/978-3-030-91797-5_ [Accessed May 2,
Jayasinghe, M., Selvanathan, E., and Selvanathan, S., 2022]
“Energy Poverty in Sri Lanka”, Energy Economics, 2022,
Available at 101.105450.10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105450 Kay, J., “A Heat Wave has Pushed India’s Dysfunctional
[Accessed May 2, 2022]. Power System into a Crisis”, Carnegie Endowment
for International Peace, 2022, Available at https://
Dasanayaka C.H., Perera Y.S., Abeykoon C., carnegieendowment.org/2022/05/12/heat-wave-has-
“Investigating the Effects of Renewable Energy pushed-india-s-dysfunctional-power-system-into-crisis-
Utilization towards the Economic Growth of Sri Lanka: pub-87122 [Accessed May 2, 2022].
A Structural Equation Modelling Approach”, Cleaner
Engineering and Technology, 2022, Available at www. Kumar, A., Höffken, J., and Pols, A. (Eds), Dilemmas
sciencedirect.com/journal/cleaner-engineering-and- of Energy Transitions in the Global South, Oxon:
technology [Accessed May 2, 2022]. Routledge, 2021.

Dowarkasing, M., and Bhagooli, R., “Mainstreaming the Murshed, M., Abbass, K., Rashid, S., “Modelling
SDGs within the IORA Member States: A Green New Renewable Energy Adoption across South Asian
Deal Journal of Indian Ocean Rim Studies”, Journal of Economies: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh,
Indian Ocean Rim Studies, November, 2020, Vol. (3) 2, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka”, International Journal of
Available at https://www.iora.int/media/24239/final-jiors- Finance & Economics, 2020, Available at doi:10.1002/
volume-3-issue-2-min.pdf [Accessed May 2, 2022]. ijfe.2073 [Accessed May 2, 2022].

Gao, Meng et al., “Secular decrease of wind power Rose, a., McBennett, B., Palchak, D., Cochran, J.,
potential in India associated with warming in the Indian Wijekoon, H.M., Samarasekara, B., and Wijekoon R.,
Ocean”, Science Advances, Vol. (4) 12, 2018, Available “Cross Border Electricity Trade between India and Sri
at doi:10.1126/sciadv.aat5256 [Accessed May 2, 2022]. Lanka: Impact on PoweSystem Operations”, Golden,
CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2018,
Grare, F., Samaan, J.L., The Indian Ocean as Available at https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/71983.
a New Political and Security Region, Cham: pdf [Accessed May 2, 2022].

8 Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean

BCIS International Affairs Review
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022

Aukus towards a Safe Indo-Pacific Region

By Thilini Goonasekara, Senior Researcher, BCIS

Australia, the US, and the UK established The build-up of nuclear-powered Australian
AUKUS in the year 2021 to strengthen the submarines in the Indo-Pacific region disturbs
security in the Indo-Pacific region. This India’s idea of a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific.’

three-way defence alliance was initiated to build Further, India believes that this might create

nuclear-propelled submarines and to work towards a possible Chinese aggression in the region. As a

safe Indo-Pacific region. result of China’s growing concern on enhancing

The AUKUS pact their security and

anticipates covering a The recent venture of AUKUS to defence technology India
wide array of defence provide Australia the technology to wanted to have nuclear-
technologies including powered submarines

artificial intelligence build nuclear-powered submarines in the region. India is
expected to gain nuclear
(AI). According to Dr has disturbed the security measures powered submarines
Thomas Wilkins, in his of India and its strategic partnership with the help of the US
article, ‘The AUKUS with the US. through their strategic
Trilateral Security
partnership. With the
Partnership and what it
initiation of AUKUS,
Means for Australia,’
US policymakers
“AUKUS represents another useful “action shop”,
reiterated the idea that the US does not intend
rather than another “talk shop”1.
sharing its submarine propulsion technology with
The recent venture of AUKUS to provide
anyone but the UK and Australia. Further, the US
Australia the technology to build nuclear-powered
has emphasised that they do not intend to have India
submarines has disturbed the security measures
as a part of AUKUS except for some occasional
of India and its strategic partnership with the US.
collaborations. In the US-India Defence Trade and
Given India’s interest to maintain its regional
Technology Initiative, the US has excluded the
balance and territorial integrity, India did not
clause to share knowledge on nuclear powered
prefer an open China-containment coalition as in
submarines with India. Therefore, it is needless to
the purported AUKUS coalition that will disturb
say that the initiation of AUKUS will impinge upon
its international trade and other non-military
Indian foreign policy and its security measures in
challenges, such as vaccine diplomacy, technology- the region.
sharing and climate change in the region.
The delivery of nuclear power submarines to
India’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific
Australia through AUKUS caused the termination

1  Wilkins, T., “The AUKUS Trilateral Security of an agreement with a French Naval Group
Partnership and What It Means for Australia,” that was signed in 2016. This angered France
International Information Network Analysis, The and affected their relationship with Australia.
Sasakawa Peace Foundation, November 15, 2021, Nonetheless, Australia had more pressing needs

Available at: < https://www.spf.org/iina/en/articles/

thomas_03.html> [Accessed June 16, 2022] Contd. on page 10

Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean 9

BCIS International Affairs Review
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022

Contd. from page 9

that demanded going

ahead with AUKUS.

One of them was their

identity dilemma of

“neither East nor West”2.

According to scholars,

the new agreement with

AUKUS will strengthen

Australia’s stance in the

region by becoming the

world’s seventh country

with nuclear submarines.

Further, it will bolster Meeting in progress of the heads of the states of the AUKUS alliance. © 2022 Getty Images
Australia’s strategic

position along with other trilateral security
pact and its strategic
regional alliances, such It is undeniable that some of the

as the QUAD and Five strategic decisions of AUKUS decisions in the Indo-
Eyes Alliance. Being
the closest neighbour will negatively affect the Indo- Pacific region because
to Asia and one of its US partnership and the power it might help India to
biggest trading partners, distribution of the Indian Ocean maintain its strategic
autonomy in the region
these measures will only region.
irritate the powerful and it will warrant

states in Asia such as China and India. new opportunities with

France. This made China develop its narrative that

India shares its northern border with China and the US is a ‘fallible ally’ and it is only concerned
also a large portion of its international trade. It is with ‘America First’ mentality3.

understandable that China's recent infrastructural Friends, Enemies, and Interests
development in the Indian Ocean region and its
rapid development in defence and technology “We have no eternal allies, and
challenged India’s territorial integrity and strategic we have no perpetual enemies.
autonomy in the region. Hence, India has extended Our interests are eternal and
its bilateral partnerships with the US and other East perpetual, and those interests it
Asian countries towards its Indo Pacific Strategy. is our duty to follow”

Establishment of AUKUS spurred issues and doubts (Lord Palmerston, Former Prime Minister of

in India about its reliance on the US. However, the United Kingdom ― 1859–1865)

India has been cautious in reacting to this recent 3  Chalivet, A., “India's Place in the Quad in Light

2  Cheng, M., “AUKUS: The Changing Dynamic of AUKUS,” Network for Strategic Analysis, April

and Its Regional Implications,” European Journal of 2022, Available at: https://ras-nsa.ca/wp-content/

Development Studies, 2022, Available at: https://ej- uploads/2022/04/Policy-Brief-18-Indias-Place-in-the-

develop.org/index.php/ejdevelop/article/view/63/24 Quad-in-Light-of-AUKUS.pdf [Accessed May 21, 2022]

[Accessed May 21, 2022]

10 Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean

BCIS International Affairs Review
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022

The US, as one of India's main strategic it also opened the door for India to develop its

partners, initiated numerous projects for a free diplomatic ties with other countries and eased

and open Indo-Pacific. It included civilian nuclear tensions with China. It also helps India to build its

activities, civilian strategic autonomy in a

space programmes, Being one of the main partners of post-AUKUS situation.
high technology trade, the QUAD, India is an irreplaceable It is undeniable that
and missile defence. In some of the strategic

addition to the above, the strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific decisions of AUKUS
military trade between Strategy. Although the initiation of will negatively affect the
the US and India AUKUS alerted India to the possible Indo-US partnership and
drastically improved impact on its naval security and its the power distribution of
over the last decade. the Indian Ocean region.

Being one of the main strategic partnerships, it also opened The recent activities in
partners of the QUAD, the door for India to develop its the Indo-Pacific region
India is an irreplaceable diplomatic ties with other countries prove the different
strategic partner in the and eased tensions with China. political agendas of
Indo-Pacific Strategy. countries in the Indo

Although the initiation Pacific region, their

of AUKUS alerted India to the possible impact understanding on the idea of Indo-Pacific Strategy

on its naval security and its strategic partnerships, and its influence on the Indian Ocean region.

References opinion/no-ruckus-for-india-aukus-presents-only-a-sea-
of-strategic-opportunities-4785518.html [Accessed May
BBC, “AUKUS: UK, US and Australia Launch Pact 21, 2021]
to Counter China,” September 16, 2021, Available at:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58564837 [Accessed Singh, A., “India Remains Divided about AUKUS,” The
May 24, 2022] Interpreter, December 22, 2021, Available at: https://
www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/india-remains-
Brewster, D., “AUKUS can be a Good Platform for divided-about-aukus [Accessed May 19, 2022]
Cooperation with India,” The Interpreter, April 04,
2022, Available at: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the- Strategic Comments, “The effect of AUKUS on India’s
interpreter/aukus-can-be-good-platform-cooperation- foreign and defence policies,” Taylor & Francis Online,
india [Accessed May 19, 2022] March 22, 2022, Available at: https://www.tandfonline.
com/doi/ full/10.1080/13567888.2022.2056996?
Chalivet, A., “India's Place in the Quad in Light of scroll=top&need Access=true [Accessed May 19, 2022]
AUKUS,” Network for Strategic Analysis, April
2022, Available at: https://ras-nsa.ca/wp-content/ Wilkins, T., “The AUKUS Trilateral Security Partnership
uploads/2022/04/Policy-Brief-18-Indias-Place-in-the- and what It Means for Australia,” International
Quad-in-Light-of-AUKUS.pdf [Accessed May 21, 2022] Information Network Analysis, The Sasakawa Peace
Foundation, November 15, 2021, Available at: < https://
Cheng, M., “AUKUS: The Changing Dynamic and www.spf.org/iina/en/articles/thomas_03.html> [Accessed
Its Regional Implications,” European Journal of June 16, 2022]
Development Studies, 2022, Available at: https://ej-
develop.org/index.php/ejdevelop/article/view/63/24 Wintour, P., “What is the AUKUS Alliance and What are
[Accessed May 21, 2022] its Implications?,” The Guardian, September 16, 2021,
Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/
Kaul, A., “No Ruckus: For India, AUKUS Presents Only sep/16/what-is-the-aukus-alliance-and-what-are-its-
a Sea of Strategic Opportunities,” News 18, February implications [Accessed May 21, 2022]
18, 2022, Available at: https://www.news18.com/news/

Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean 11

BCIS International Affairs Review
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022

Stability of the Indian Ocean Region:
Reality of the QUAD and the Chinese Presence

By Shayani Jayasinghe, Research Officer, BCIS  

Significance of the Indian Ocean routes facilitate maritime trade, carry more than

Former Admiral of the US Navy and half of the world’s seaborne oil, and host 23 well-
prominent historian Alfred Thayer Mahan equipped container ports. This region possesses a
once stated that, “Whoever controls the rich variety of minerals such as iron, copper, nickel,
Indian Ocean will dominate Asia. This ocean will etc. Around two-thirds of the world’s oil reserves
be the key to the seven seas in the 21st century. and 35% of the gas reserves, which are used for
The destiny of the world will be decided on its powering industries worldwide, are located within
waters”.1 The above statement clearly highlights this region.2 Significant economies such as China,
the geopolitical and geostrategic significance of the Japan, and South Korea depend entirely on energy
Indian Ocean in world affairs. This prediction has imported primarily via the Strait of Malacca, which
become a reality in the present context as the Indian is a vital choke point in the Indian Ocean. Any
Ocean plays a vital role in the quest for achieving disruptions along this route will impact the energy
maritime supremacy and economic prosperity by security of the entire globe.

superpowers and emerging powers. The rise of China and its military and economic

The important trade expansion in the Indian

and energy routes and The dynamics of the rise of Ocean is a matter
the sheer scope of its superpowers and alliances are making of concern for both
many littoral states have the USA and India.

transformed the Indian the region a much more competitive China’s impressive

Ocean into a critical environment. These developments economic growth over

region for strategic and have transformed the strategic the past few decades,
military engagements. environment of the region into a more its replacement of Japan
Therefore, the stability as the world’s second-

of the Indian Ocean multipolar and contested one. largest economy, and its

acts as a crucial factor capability of handling

in strengthening the global economy. The interest the 2008 Economic

in controlling the navigation routes and gaining Crisis better than other economies proved to the

access to vital resources are the main reasons for world that China is a superpower that can challenge

competition for power among superpowers and the global hegemony of the USA.

emerging powers in the Indian Ocean. 2  World Mineral Statistics Data | Statistics &
Commodities | Minerals UK.
The Indian Ocean is central to sea routes https://www.bgs.ac.uk/mineralsUKstatistics/ wms.
connecting the Middle East, Africa, and East Asia cfc?method=listResults&dataType=Production
with Europe and the Americas. These vital sea

&commodity= 71&dateFrom=2015&dateTo=

1  A.T Mahan. 2011. The Influence of Sea Power upon 2016&country= &agreeToTsAndCs=agr

History, 1600-1783, New York: Dover Publications. [Accessed 07 May 2022]

12 Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean

BCIS International Affairs Review
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022

Rise of China in the Region

China seeks to achieve its

strategic interests in the Indian

Ocean mainly through military

and economic expansion. Chinese

warships and submarines have been

conducting military exercises in

the Indian Ocean to secure China’s

growing security interests. With the

establishment of the first overseas

military base at Djibouti in 2016,

China aims to protect its security

interests in the Horn of Africa and Meeting of the leaders of Australia, the US, Japan and India at the QUAD summit in
the Indian Ocean. China considers Tokyo. © 2022 Masanori Genko/ Yomiuri Shimbun/AP/Picture Alliance/Deutsche Welle

Djibouti as their ‘overseas strategic China has also been extending political and
strongpoint’ through which it can economic influence in the Indian Ocean through
control the flow of trade and crude oil that passes infrastructure development carried out under the
through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to the Indian BRI. China has already invested billions of dollars
Ocean via the Suez Canal. in several states around the Indian Ocean such as Sri
Lanka, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Kenya to develop
China has attempted to increase its sea lanes transport and digital infrastructure, with implications
and build a network of commercial hubs across the for growth in trade and military influence. Apart from
Indian Ocean by establishing ports in the region and constructing railways and highways, BRI projects are
through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The often aimed at securing minerals and energy needed
Gwadar and Pasni Ports of Pakistan, Hambantota for China’s industries. The successful completion
Port of Sri Lanka, Chittagong Port in Bangladesh, of these projects will provide more opportunities
Kyaukpyu Port in Myanmar, and the naval base for future investment and usher in prosperity and
at Coco Islands are some of the leading ports and sustainable development to the Indian Ocean region,
commercial hubs located in the Indian Ocean through which would eventually strengthen Chinese economic
which China exerts military power and controls trade and political influence in the region.
activities across the region. These bases are situated
near important strategic maritime chokepoints that The QUAD Steps up Response to China’s
are vital for international trade. More than 80% of Presence
the world’s petroleum are transported daily through

these chokepoints. Many essential goods and China’s growing footprints in the Indian Ocean

mineral commodities also transit through these ports region is making India uncomfortable as India has

and chokepoints. Therefore, the global takeover long aspired to be recognised as the leading power of

of commodity and energy maritime traffic control the region. The Indian Navy claims the Indian Ocean

will generate strategic superiority and economic to be their area of responsibility and prides itself on

prosperity for China. By exerting its influence being the first to respond to humanitarian and natural

around these chokepoints, China expects to secure disasters there. Although India is the biggest economic

investments and trade opportunities that are beneficial

to its economic growth. Contd. on page 14

Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean 13

BCIS International Affairs Review
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022

Contd. from page 13 views this as an alliance led by the USA to contain

and military power among Indian Ocean states, it is its economic and military power in the region and
only in recent times that it has been able to extend its has often pressurised countries in the region to avoid
strategic interests beyond South Asia. India’s active cooperating with the QUAD.

involvement in the Indian Ocean automatically boosts Power Dynamics and Transnational Concerns in

India’s Act East and Neighbourhood First policies. It the Region

is reinforced through India’s strategic and economic These developments in the Indian Ocean

ties with South Asian nations such as Sri Lanka, demonstrates that the activities of China and

Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Southeast Asian the QUAD are clearly influenced by Mahan’s

nations such Myanmar, geopolitical vision. The

Thailand, and Vietnam. In recent times, these nations have dynamics of the rise
These ties have paved committed to slogans of ensuring of superpowers and
the way for India to an open, resilient, and inclusive alliances are making
counterbalance Chinese the region a much

influence and strengthen region through infrastructure more competitive
its presence in the region.
The strategic competition development, clean energy projects environment. These
between China and India and humanitarian assistance. developments have
transformed the strategic
has become an important
environment of the region into a more multipolar
factor in analysing the power dynamics of the region. and contested one.

The Indian Ocean has emerged as a major centre The consequences of major power rivalries and the
of geostrategic significance for the USA in the emergence of a more militarised strategic environment
recent years. Therefore, the USA plays a proactive can easily pave the way for non-traditional security
role in strengthening freedom of navigation in threats such as natural disasters, illegal fishing, sea
strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca piracy, narcotic trade and human trafficking in the
and the Strait of Hormuz to facilitate the smooth region. Hence, these threats will significantly impact
flow of trade and energy resources. Assisting the ongoing geopolitical and trade competition in the
India to expand its naval capabilities and maritime region. Therefore, these actors who are competing
infrastructure in the region would create a strong for pivotal power roles in the region should develop
regional ally for the USA to support them in their strategies through which they can cooperate with each
mission to contain Chinese presence in the region. other rather than counter each other to address these

India, the USA, Japan, and Australia have non-traditional security threats and help safeguard their

formed the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security allies in the region.

Dialogue), which is a strategic grouping aimed at Reference
reducing Chinese presence. Quad member states
have been engaging in regular naval exercises called Mahan, A.T., 2011. The Influence of Sea Power upon
the Malabar Exercises in the Indian Ocean region History, 1600-1783, New York: Dover Publications.
to counter Chinese military influence in the region.
In recent times, these nations have committed to World Mineral Statistics Data | Statistics & Commodities
slogans of ensuring an open, resilient, and inclusive | Minerals UK. Available at: https://www.bgs.ac.uk/min-
region through infrastructure development, clean eralsUK/statistics/wms.cfc?method=listResults&data-
energy projects and humanitarian assistance. China Type=Production&commodity=71&dateFrom=2015&da-
teTo=2016&country=&agreeToTsAndCs=agr [Accessed
07 May 2022]

14 Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean

BCIS International Affairs Review
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022

The Colombo Security Conclave: Prospects and
Challenges for Cooperation in the IOR

By Nandeeni Patel, Fulbright Scholar, Intern, BCIS.

In early March, national security advisors from The realms include maritime security, countering
India, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Mauritius, terrorism, combating trafficking and transnational
Bangladesh, and Seychelles met in the Maldives organized crime, cyber security and humanitarian

for the fifth meeting of the Colombo Security assistance and disaster relief. The reported roadmaps

Conclave (CSC). The CSC is an India-led initiative are structured to facilitate robust mechanisms for

to address shared security coordinated responses,

concerns that the Indian “The CSC presents an opportunity capacity building, and
Ocean Region (IOR) for small states like Sri Lanka to strengthening information
faces. The CSC aims keep extra-regional powers from flows between member
to maintain regional states. The CSC has

peace and security while influencing the IOR. However, the unique opportunity
primarily focusing on Sri Lanka’s ability to bargain to amplify the voices
traditional security and balance India’s power at the of small states like Sri
threats in the context of Lanka. In November

larger strategic rivalries. negotiating table lies in the proper 2021, maritime security
Currently, there seems management of its own domestic agencies in India, the
to be a lack of clarity politics.” Maldives, and Sri Lanka
on how the varying participated in “CSC

components Operation

of the CSC Focused.”

differ from The operation

India’s included

bilateral the joint

relations with movement

small states in of ships and

the IOR. aircrafts

Larger National security advisers and representatives from India, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius, of all three
Powers and Bangladesh, and Seychelles at the opening of the 5th Edition of Colombo Security Conclave in states over
the National Maldives, Mar. 9, 2022. © 2022 Maldives National Defense Force a vast area
Security of exclusive
of Smaller economic
States zones
(EEZs) in
The CSC the southern
reportedly Arabian Sea.
adopted The aim of
roadmaps for the operation
cooperation was to keep
in five
realms. Contd. on page 16

Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean 15

BCIS International Affairs Review have access to any of those places.”1 There seems
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022 to be a larger fear that foreign forces will have
access to critical intelligence on Sri Lankan naval
Contd. from page 15 operations and, consequently, compromise Sri
Lankan maritime security.
an integral part of the Indian Ocean Region safe and
secure for commercial shipping, international trade, In this light, the Sri Lankan government also
and other legitimate activities, according to the Indian accepted an Indian gift of USD 19.81 million for a
Ministry of Defence. The continued success of the 4,000-tonne floating dock. The Indian government
CSC lies in India’s ability to recognise the needs of required the dock to be in Trincomalee, not
small states and cater to them accordingly. Hambantota. Local analysts suggest, however,
that if a large power is offering something for free,
While the CSC as a collective initiative “Sri Lanka should have complete control over the
has reportedly created mechanisms to enhance asset.”2 Thus, Indian specification on the location of
maritime security, India continues to pursue the dock has the potential of reducing Sri Lankan
similar interests in its bilateral relations. Indian autonomy over the dock.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar signed
several agreements with Colombo including a The Way Forward: Amplifying the Voices of
defence-related pact to enhance maritime security Small States
measures. The agreement has set up a joint
Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre (MRCC) to Given the ambiguity surrounding the recent
expand Sri Lankan capacities for search and rescue maritime security signed between Sri Lanka and India,
(SAR) missions. The pact has also granted Sri the potential for a cooperative and effective CSC is
Lanka USD 6 million by the Indian government. immense. As a small South Asian state, Sri Lanka has
The details of the roadmaps established at the the unique ability to barter favours from Beijing and
recent CSC meeting are unknown. Thus, it New Delhi. Actively engaging in the CSC reminds
is unclear if the MRCC and related bilateral Beijing that Sri Lanka is a non-aligned country and
agreements between Sri Lanka and India were a continues to avoid the presence of regional hegemony.
consequence of the institution or an occurrence
outside of the boundaries of the CSC. The CSC presents an opportunity for small
states like Sri Lanka to keep extra-regional powers
The CSC’s interaction with bilateral relations from influencing the IOR. However, Sri Lanka’s
remains ambiguous. However, pacts like the one ability to bargain and balance India’s power at the
establishing the MRCC are alleged to threaten Sri negotiating table lies in the proper management
Lanka’s national security by some critics. There of its own domestic politics. Domestic issues such
is a growing Sri Lankan sentiment that the island as the energy crisis and political unrest increase
nation’s financial and economic crisis is being Sri Lanka’s need for external support and make
exploited by big powers. The fundamental issue the state vulnerable to foreign demands that may
with these larger pacts is the lack of transparency not be entirely in its national interest. The proper
on negotiated terms. Local communities have a management of domestic issues will help strengthen
limited understanding of the nature and magnitude Sri Lanka’s regional credibility and help the island
of the transactions involved in the exchange of nation utilise the CSC in a manner that mitigates
maritime security. While the exact terms of the
MRCC are not available for public scrutiny, it 1  “Cabinet approves maritime security pact with
is known that the MRCC will be stationed at the India.” The Sunday Times, 27 March 2022. Available
naval headquarters in Colombo. The Diplomatic at: https://www.sundaytimes.lk/220327/news/cabinet-
Editor of the Sunday Times argues that the approves-maritime-security-pact-with-india-478289.html
MRCC should be stationed outside of the naval [Accessed 17 May 2022]
headquarters because “no foreign forces should 2 Ibid.

16 Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean

BCIS International Affairs Review
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022

the non-traditional and Given the ambiguity surrounding CSC becomes an anti-
traditional security threats the recent maritime security Chinese wing of Indian
it faces. signed between Sri Lanka foreign policy, exploits
and India, the potential for a the economic and political
Essentially, the CSC cooperative and effective CSC is crises of smaller states
has the potential to help immense. As a small South Asian in the IOR, and delays
states in the Indian Ocean state, Sri Lanka has the unique to increase transparency
to cooperate on shared ability to barter favours from measures, the CSC will
threats. Now, the CSC is Beijing and New Delhi. alienate critical members
becoming increasingly like Sri Lanka and become
institutionalised as observer inefficient like other
states like Mauritius and regional institutions in the
Bangladesh seek to become
members. However, if the IOR.

References Laskar, RH. “Colombo Security Conclave adopts
road map for cooperation in maritime security,
“Colombo Security Conclave, the 5th NSA-Level counterterrorism.” The Hindustan Times, March 11,
Meeting concludes in Maldives.” News.lk, March 15, 2022, Available at: https://www.hindustantimes.com/
2022. Available at: https://www.news.lk/news/political- india-news/colombo-security-conclave-adopts-road-
current-affairs/item/33809-colombo-security-conclave- map-for-cooperation-in-maritime-security-counterterrori
the-5-th-nsa-level-meeting-concludes-in-maldives sm-101646939810492.html [Accessed May 17, 2022].
[Accessed May 17, 2022].
Raguhunathan Nair, K. “Challenges Ahead for the
“Joint Press Statement of the 5th NSA Level Meeting Colombo Security Conclave, the Indian Ocean Quad.”
of the Colombo Security Conclave held on 09 – 10 The Diplomat, April 15, 2022, Available at: https://
March 2022, in Maldives.” India MEA, March 10, thediplomat.com/2022/04/challenges-ahead-for-the-
2022, Available at: https://mea.gov.in/press-releases. colombo-security-conclave-the-indian-ocean-quad/
htm?dtl/34943/Joint+ Press+Statement+of+the+ [Accessed May 17, 2022].
5th+NSA+Level+Meeting+ of+the+Colombo+Security+
Conclave+held+ on+09++10+March+2022+
in+Maldives [Accessed May 17, 2022].

Article Annotation: Indian Ocean Power Dynamics

by Chamika Wijesuriya, Research Officer and
Dr Mihiri Senanayake, Programme Executive/Research Coordination Division

Brewster, D., India's Ocean: The Story of India's of influence, the book
Bid for Regional Leadership, 1st edn, Abingdon and demonstrates that India
New York: Routledge, 2014, Available at https://doi. has a long way to go
org/10.4324/9781315815244 [Accessed May 20, 2022] before it could achieve
regional dominance.
India's Ocean: The Story of India's Bid for Regional The book outlines the
Leadership by David Brewster looks at India’s strategic development of Indian
ambitions in the Indian Ocean in relation to the shifting thinking on its role in
balance of power in Asia. The author acknowledges that the Indian Ocean whilst
Indian Ocean region is an important part of the global examining India’s strategic
economic power shifts that are taking place in Asia, relationships with maritime
especially with the rise of both China and India as major South Asia, the Indian Ocean
economic powers. Going against the assumption that
the Indian Ocean falls naturally within India’s sphere Contd. on page 19

Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean 17

BCIS International Affairs Review
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022

Video Interview with Dr. David Brewster on
Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean

by Ms. Shayani Jayasinghe

The e-version of the BCIS International Several small states such as Maldives have been
Affairs Review carries a video interview that affected by the India- China power dynamics. The
can be viewed on YouTube with Dr. David debt that Maldives borrowed from China became a
Brewster regarding the “Power Dynamics of the major destabilizing factor for the country. The new
Indian Ocean” by Ms. Shayani Jayasinghe, Research regime under President Ibrahim Solih has shifted
Officer/BCIS. Please view the full interview at: towards India. However, this shift is not the end of
https://youtu.be/5g069Kmttmk_ the story. The competition between India and China
will continue to affect countries such as Maldives
Dr. David Brewster currently serves as a Senior and Sri Lanka. Many other small states in the region
Research Fellow of the National Security College, will look up to Sri Lanka and Maldives as examples
Australian National University where he works on of countries that were destabilized by power
Indian Ocean and Indo Pacific maritime security. rivalries. These states will be more cautious when
He is a frequent contributor to publications on dealing with China in the future.
security developments in the Indian Ocean and
the Indo Pacific region. During this interview, Dr. Due to the impact of the Covid- 19 pandemic
Brewster speaks about the recent developments in and the relatively poor status of the Chinese
the Indian Ocean vis-à-vis India- China relations. economy, many Chinese companies find it
Furthermore, he highlights the impact of the challenging to carryout large scale investments
emergence of middle powers and the challenges in the region. Chinese investments in the region
imposed by traditional and non- traditional security have decreased during recent times. In Africa,
threats in the region. The following is an excerpt of the total number of Japanese investments last
the views shared in the interview by Dr. Brewster. year exceeded Chinese investments to the region.
Therefore, China’s involvement in affairs of the
Over the last year or so, the Indian Ocean Region IOR during recent times have been limited in scope
(IOR) has been quite stable and certainly China does and not quite strong. The emerging middle powers
not seem to be making major inroads to the region in the region such as Indonesia and Bangladesh
that is of concern to India. Several Chinese funded are playing an important role in stabilizing the
projects in the region are not showing progress as region by balancing China and India and providing
expected and many of these projects are plagued more opportunities and humanitarian assistance
with corruption scandals. The current economic for smaller states in the region. Furthermore, the
crisis of Sri Lanka has an impact on India- China impact of climate change is being felt in the region
relations. Many will view Sri Lanka’s involvement and there is a need for strengthening regional
with China as a contributing factor to this crisis. The cooperation to face the challenges imposed
Sri Lankan government was of the view that they can by climate change and avert environmental
borrow more and more loans from China and that catastrophes and all other traditional and non-
China would be able to provide them with financial traditional security threats which are threatening the
assistance whenever possible. However, there is a stability of the region.
lack of clarity on India’s stance in supporting Sri
Lanka to overcome the challenges caused by the
economic crisis is not clear. First and foremost the
situation in Sri Lanka should stabilize.

The power struggle between India and China
has major implications on small states in the region.

18 Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean

Contd. from page 17 BCIS International Affairs Review
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022
islands, East Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia
and Australia. The author discusses in depth the region’s characteristic of the
evolving strategic order. Following is a brief extract from “new” Indian Ocean and
the book; that the understanding of
the tensions of the fault
“Although India’s role as an Indian Ocean power line between great power
will almost inevitably grow in coming years, there is no plays and local ambitions
obvious path as to how its power will develop. As with is the primary challenge
other areas of Indian policy, there is a good chance that for the observers of the
India will continue along at its own civilisational pace IOR. Following is a brief
without any overarching or coordinated strategic plan, extract from the book;
seeking to expand its power and influence here and there
on an ad hoc basis, as and when opportunities present “In other words,
themselves. This may represent a low-risk approach for the “new” Indian Ocean
New Delhi, particularly if it takes the view that time is is neither solely the
on its side. But a failure to properly come to terms with battleground of a strategic
China’s interests or co-opt the middle powers of the region triangle between the US, India and China nor a vast
may restrict India from fully achieving its ambitions to space of competition among local players; it is both. And
become the leading power of the Indian Ocean. In coming this suggests a new level of complexity in the regional
decades, India’s Ocean may look a bit more like a Hindu relationships as the trends do not consist in a mere
world than a European one, a society bound together replacement of old actors by new ones. The regional
by a common understanding of things, but also full of dynamic fuelled by China’s rise as well as the subsequent
compromises, uncertainties and inconsistencies that allow international reactions to that rise have generated a new
its disparate parts to rub along.” arms race in the Indian Ocean but also a frantic search
for new partnerships, locally and externally. As a result,
Grare, F., and Samaan, J.L., The Indian Ocean it also increases the interconnection between the various
as a New Political and Security Region, Cham: subregions of the Indian Ocean, such as the Horn of
Palgrave Macmillan, 2022, Available at https://doi. Africa, the Persian Gulf, South Asia or Southeast Asia.
org/10.1007/978-3-030-91797-5_[Accessed May 2, But this interconnection raises more questions than
2022] answers. Whereas the major risk in the Indian Ocean, ten
years ago, was the one (sic) of a security vacuum—as
The book constitutes Grare’s and Samaan’s reflected by the international counter-piracy operations
perspectives on the emerging Indian Ocean dynamics. of that era—the new dynamics spin a web of regional
The authors acknowledge that the acceleration of China’s and local powers partnering and competing with
global posture remains one of the primary drivers of each other without turning these relations into a more
this new Indian Ocean, and that the role of the US in the structured regional security system. In that context, the
region is unlikely to fade away. They also acknowledge security architecture of the Indian Ocean remains
that political fragmentation that long characterized the at best underdeveloped.”
shores of the Indian Ocean is still a reality and that this
fragmentation enables external powers to find room Rao, N., The Fractured Himalaya: India Tibet China
for their own ambitions by building ties with a myriad 1949-1962, Penguin Random House India Private
of littoral states. The uncertainty that accompanies Limited, 2021, pp. 512.
this fragmentation has also led to an unprecedented
and unanticipated growth in interregional relations. The Fractured Himalaya: India Tibet China 1949-
Although the US–China–India strategic triangle can 1962 is authored by Nirupama Rao, a former Foreign
still be considered as a major driver of the regional Secretary of India. It is a work of historical scholarship
policies, as the authors point out, it is now compounded which explores the facts that led to the origins of the
by the simultaneous strategies of local countries. The Sino-Indian conflict during the period from the 1950s to
authors argue that the emerging multipolarity is the main the 1960s. This was also the time of the transformation
of the two Asian giants, India and China, which were

Contd. on page 20

Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean 19

BCIS International Affairs Review “The India-
Volume 1, Issue 2, 2022 China relationship in
its mid-20th century
Contd. from page 19 phase was a history of
politics, of ideologies,
establishing themselves as two postcolonial nations. of the disposition of
Rao who is a diplomat-practitioner, uses archival leaders, and a history of
material from India, China, Britain and the US, and diplomacy and war. An
her personal experiences in China where she served as investigation into ‘the
an ambassador to narrate the complexities of the Sino- nature of being human’,
Indian relationship. She highlights the negotiations and this study focuses on the
official interactions of the diplomatic itinerary between human quotient of the
the two countries from1949 to 1962 which include policy history of relations between
options and public debate in India; the initial attraction these two Asian nations;
that Jawaharlal Nehru had towards China; attempts two civilizations and their
by Jawaharlal Nehru to get closer to China; the Indian leaders coming face-to-
Premiership’s eventual and complete disillusion about face with the geopolitics
China and insight on the reasons that India and China of their time. The attempt is to write a history with
eventually went to war in 1962. human characteristics, an encapsulated set of moving
pictures that should interest the lay reader in particular,
The book also offers insight into the complications that aspires to be colorful and evanescent to borrow a
created by the colonial masters among the nations phrase from Isaiah Berlin, and not dry as dust, the aim
which share the Himalaya lands. The work repeatedly being to etch this history onto the surface of the reader’s
utilizes the concept of imperialism and demonstrates the mind. A young demographic, it is hoped, will base their
diverse manners in which this concept is practiced, either understanding of it both on reason-by drawing inferences
through formal colonialism or other means. Imperialism about major events from a grasp of the facts; and also
is further juxtaposed and linked with the notion of through a kindling of the imagination, recreating in the
resistance, independence and sovereignty. The concepts mind’s eye, the events that marked a formative period
of nation-hood, sovereignty and suzerainty come into of the contemporary history of two nations, binding
play to describe the fluctuating relationship between the together diplomacy and war. It is populated with not
states which share the Himalayan geography. The book only politicians but also bureaucrats-mainly Indian
identifies the position of Tibet within the Sino-Indian diplomats and some Chinese ones-and a few military
dynamics and depicts the historical facts about the commanders. No doubt, it is dominated on the Indian
external and internal politics in India, China and Tibet, sided by Jawaharlal Nehru, whose mind was inspired by
that ultimately led to the current bi-lateral relationship those pioneering voyagers in millennia past, both Indian
between India and China. Within that context, the and Chinese, who reached out across deserts to build a
work delineates a clear understanding about the ‘trans- partnership of civilizations; a Caesar who was neither
Himalaya’ power play of India and China within the Bismarck nor Kissinger, but more philosopher and
formation period of their nationhood. By outlining how historian.”
the two Asian giants that share the same extended land,
would not easily be united geo-politically, the work
demonstrates the impossibility of conceptualizing a
vision of ‘one Asia’ as in Europe. Following is a brief
extract from the book;

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20 Power Dynamics in the Indian Ocean