Signal service

Pips Trading performance

2500
2000
1500
1000

500
0

EUR/GBP Funnel process 1-5 on the daily - Indication of break
08/05/2017 – D1 lower.

Significant exhaustion candle – start of
reversal,

Double head and shoulder – Right shoulder are
bigger tending towards a break lower

08/05/2017 – H4

A break above 0.8638 will be a big potential return to a
bullish bias, in my opinion.

08/05/2017 - H1

COT data seems to weight in the EUR bias which doesn’t line up with the technical
analysis. Only the ‘boat formation which should see a rung where the purple line
has been draw

Flat top wedge indicate break higher.
Not sustained

FBL – boat formation indication of a break higher
50% Fib sig support.

11/05/2017 – H1

Flat topped wedge with break
out to the 50% Fib and 200MA,
finding resistance

11/05/2017 – H4

H4 shows exhaustive candle.
Needs to close to continue
with bearish bias

11/05/2017 – D1

Pair has broken the funnel and is currently in the lower levels of
the significant break out. As long as it doesn’t break and
consolidate over the blue horizontal line – high probability of
dropping further

18/05/2017 – H4

The Pair have fully entered back into the funnel and it is at the
top. There has been rejection around this level which shows there
funnel is still a valid analysis aid.

24/05/2017 – H4

The pair has broken the channel and has The pair has
followed the COT data bias change. The peak currently found the
however has not broken the H4 previous peak of 23.6 resistance
0.88027 which will stall the
pair at the moment
– which is clustered
with a larger 50% fib

31/05/2017 – D1

No real sign of stopping this run. We have rallied to 261.8,
Breaking through all formation and 50 and a 23.6 cluster of Fib
levels previously discussed which provided a bit of
resistance.

31/05/2017 –H1

A flat top wedge formation with a FBL –
showed a buying signal

- 23/05/2017

- 16/05/2017
- 09/05/2017
- 02/05/2017

- 18/10/16

Even though the pound longs are increasing, the rate of which the Eur contracts are increasing is at a

much faster rate. The open interest for the EUR is rapidly increasing week on week also where the

GBP is increasing a lot slower. This sharp rise in the Pair is around the same angle and the previous
05/06/2017 –H4 impulse. Frist was 69.3 and most recent was 64.7. This may suggest that
selling power could increase around this current level. We fully know
previous levels are there to be broken.
However this is only one analysis.

-

23/05/2017
- 23/05/2017

05/06/2017 – H1

Cluster of Fibs which could present a buying opportunity the pair has The flat top wedge
slightly broken the trend channel but the COT data is still on the Bullish bias looks to break and
with contracts reaffirming this trend. continue to bullish
momentum.
12/06/2017 – H4

The Cluster shows support. However the support was broken so trades
might look to close at the 86, giving enough breathing room for the pair -
especially with the volatile time of the election.

COT data is still in line with the bullish momentum. Target 0.89

10/07/2017 – H1 We found some resistance at the 0.88463 The pair did decide to push lower as we
but the tests look promising for the break thought could happen but never went as
higher. We could still see a drop off to low as the 61.8 before we saw buying
0.88181 before the next impulse up. power and the pair returning to
favourable direction of the trade we have
60-90 pip could have been gained at this placed.
moment in time depending on your entry
zone

You could unwind some of your position reducing your exposure while crystallising some profit. This
would allow you potentially to gain on the next impulse higher to target two. If you combine this
with moving the stop loss to break even you would then not have any exposure and you would have
crystallised some profit.

We need to look at how the pair reacts at the previous high; this resistance could be followed by a
flood of buys into the market as traders tend to put their stop losses just above the highs. If we see a
spike into these we could see and surge to target two.

The drop off has seemed to have found
support our second level of interest.

11/07/2017 – H1

The rejection wick looks promising but
still need some movement to give higher
probability to the upside. But looks
promising

11/07/2017 – H1 The pair bounced off the second trade
level perfectly and punched through the
0.8846 which continued to the previous
high of 0.88725, this caused some
resistance which can be seen on a M15
charts. This however did not hold for
long and we saw the pair continue with
high momentum towards the end goal.

We are about to enter target two!

Strategy:

Crystallise trades now – we are four pips away from target and we’re seeing a slow in the push
which might mean we see a pull back before the target is hit and I think people can live without 4
pips.

Move the stop losses to 0.8846 to lock in profits of 80-50 and 30-25 on the first and second trade
respectively.

13/09/2017

Analysis:
The pound has recently shown some strength.
UK prices continue to be higher than the BoE’s 2% target. CPI increased by 2.9% year on year, which
was higher than 2.6% in July and better than expectations of 2.8%
If inflation increases, the BoE will come under the spotlight.

This week with a focus on MPC voting member and hawk, Haldane and whether he will now back his
21st hawkish signal and join the other two hawks, which would make the vote 6-3 instead of 7-2.
Usually if you start seeing reports beating expectations this can be a sign that the analysts are stuck
in their ways, as a result you could get a run of results beating estimates as they don’t want to revise
their estimates.
13/09/2017

Cut trade.
The dynamic of this trade has changed and as a result, we feel the probability of this trade being
successful has diminished.
We want to cut losing trades as early as possible.
Cot data is still not in the pounds favour.
We also have BoE interest rate decision which could push the pair up until the decision – if the
decision is hawkish, which it could well be.
14/09/2017 – this trade was cut at breakeven due to uncertainty

The question is when does this formation break? The Hard part is
If the formation always reverts then is it still valid. picking the stop
If it breaks higher and started consolidating…would that mean its probability which. Allowing
has reduced. enough to volatility
and not too far to
In the highlighted section, the flat bottom wedge get stopped because
was forming which had the fake break out higher. the formation broke
So looked promising for a short. a long time ago and
we’re just hanging
in.

The spike is the
interest rate
decision. (They kept
the decision the
same, unchanged)

We might look at placing a The Daily 200MA provided
stop loss level at the significant support, combined
consolidation before the with serious cluster.
previous break. In this case
would be 80 pips which
doesn’t seem outrageous.

18/09/2017

Looked like a flat bottom wedge. But pushed up Support shown in hourly time
and consolidated for four bars, without going frame
back into formation.
Which might be a future signal to cut Wedge
Formation?

No Fake
breakout
higher

25/09/2017

Analysis:

Flat bottom wedge forming with a fake break out higher.

COT data shows a significant decrease in short positions on the pound. If this increases over the next
couple of weeks we are likely to see the bears stay in control of the pair.

03/10/2017

Formation looks to be broken.
Probability has reduced

If the black line is taken out and
these levels held, the formation
would 100% become invalid.

05/10/2017

The trade started off promising but looking at the daily chart you can see the pair broke below the
200MA and Fib clusters but wasn’t able to consolidate below this level. The pair pushed back up
above the 200MA which reduced the trades probability.

As you can see on the H4 we have had funnels before a breaks. We are currently at a resistance with
the 200MA and a Fib cluster.
We are still very much bearish on this currency and if the stop loss does get hit we will be looking to
enter short again
06/10/2017

Flat wedge formation with a fake
break out

Dark pool activity, flat until break This funnel as it entered from a low, the price would likely
higher to go higher – I did not follow this indication as I was just
Drops are manipulation thinking short. I didn’t push this trade as it didn’t feel right.

10/10/2017

Fib cluster could show resistance, if the level is reached.

17/10/2017 The trade as discussed funnelled and broke higher into a
level I felt was not sustainable. COT data is building with
the GBP.

Another flat bottom formation formed which broker lower…Bounce
aggressively higher before heading back to the lows and arguably back
into formation

The rejection was sustained and the second level was
consolidation below the flat wedge formation which
showed a further break.

The bounce up shows the recent formation is invalid and
we need to wait for price action to create another trade
possibility

23/10/2017

Wedge formation.