PLUS: DRAFT RECAP OFF SEASON REVIEW LOOKING FORWARD EXPLOSIVE TRADES ISSUE 2SEPTEMBER 2023THE OFFICIAL MAGAZINE OF FATHERS OF FINESSE FATHERS OF FINESSE
SINO-AMERICAN 2022 CHAMPIONS Tom Brady | Leonard Fournette | Christian McCaffrey | Tyreek Hill D.J. Moore | George Kittle | Isiah Pacheco | Tua Tagovailoa Cordarrelle Patterson | Marlon Mack | Rashaad Penny Clyde Edwards-Helaire | Rachaad White | Michael Thomas Elijah Moore | Jameson Williams | Gerald Everett | Cole Kmet Younghoe Koo | Cameron Dicker | Calvin Ridley Regular Season Stats: Record – 5-9 (7th) PF – 1251.26 (7th) PA – 1284.48 (6th) Top Performers: Tom Brady – QB12 Christian McCaffrey – RB2 Tyreek Hill – WR3 Championship MVP: Tom Brady – 37.68 pts 34 completions 432 yards 3 TDs
2022 SEASON RECAP PLAYOFFS Team Injury Prone and team My Chubb Hurts ended up as the number one and number two seeds respectively, earning bye weeks for the first round of the playoffs. The fourth and fifth seeds faced each other in the first round, with the 9-5 team arav taking on the 5-9 team Sino-American Patriots (the bracket got a little convoluted). Team Sino-American Patriotswas able to pull out the win, with the 49ers duo of Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle having strong games, as well as Deebo Samuel being inactive for the game. The second match up of the first round consisted of the 10-4 Cameron MacCoy Football Teamtaking on the 8-6 team Book of Moremom. Team Book of Moremom was able to advance to the second round thanks to a solid game by Justin Fields and a 10+ catch, 100+ yard Game from Justin Jefferson. In the first match up of the semifinals, team Book of Moremom was able to pull off the upset and beat the number one seeded team injury prone thanks to a second straight 10+ catch, 100+ yard game from Justin Jefferson and disappearances from Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams. The second matchup of the semifinals also ended in an upset victory, with team Sino-American Patriots knocking off the two seeded team My Chubb Hurts thanks to a massive performance from George Kittle and the absence of MVP candidate Jalen Hurts. In the finals, vintage Brady and a week winning performance from key acquisition Christian McCaffrey helped lead team Sino-American Patriots to their first championship in the dynasty format, capping off an improbable run by a huge underdog. REGULAR SEASON (DIVISION A) After racing out to a 4-0 record and standing atop the total league rankings, team Better Call Hall stumbled to a 1-9 finish, sunk by key injuries to Lamar Jackson and rookie phenom Breece Hall. Team My Chubb Hurts, who was also perfect after four weeks, managed to maintain their momentum and finish at 10-4, anchored by strong seasons from Nick Chubb and Austin Ekeler, as well as an MVP type season from Jalen Hurts. Team Book of MoreMom sat at a middling 3-3 after six weeks but managed to finish at 8-6, carried by a near historic season by Justin Jefferson and an offensive outburst by Justin Fields in the second half of the season. Team Chunk Patriots started 1-4 and barely eeked into the playoffs at 5-9, though a deal at the deadline for Christian McCaffrey helped this team do serious damage in the playoffs (more on that later). To round out the division, team Broncos Country Let’s Ride and team Rod Beasts duked it out all season for the right to draft Bijan Robinson (Kyler Murray, Cooper Kupp, J.K. Dobbins, and Diontae Johnson stand out as injury/disappointment labels) with team Rod Beasts coming out on top at 3-11. REGULAR SEASON (DIVISION B) After falling into an early 0-3 hole, team Injury Prone rattled off 11 straight wins, mostly on the back of League winning type seasons from Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams in the silver and black. Team Squishy Duzi, who was looking to repeat as League champion, started off a perfect 4-0 but controversially missed the playoffs at 9-5. Team ArabManChanda, who also made the playoffs due to a tiebreaker in points scored, benefited from a historic positional advantage posted by Travis Kelce and a crazy stretch of touchdowns scored by rookie Christian Watson. Hampered by lackluster seasons from Aaron Rodgers, Kyle Pitts, Jonathan Taylor, A.J. Dillon, and Kadarius Toney, team Suyash and team Minivann battled it out all season for the chance to draft Bijan Robinson but came up just short, ending up with nice consolation prizes in Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young. 2022 SEASON RECAP
2023 OWNER’S MEETING 3/18/23 2023 Changes Half PPR - scoring format changed from Standard and no points per reception to 0.5 points per reception Superflex - League format changed from 1 QB to superflex (maximum of two quarterbacks can be started) One time dispersal draft - each league member allowed to keep one quarterback and a maximum of seven players, rest of the players are dispersed in a snake draft with draft order based on lottery system Draft pick order for non-playoff teams based on regular season standings instead of toilet bowl results Buy in - $20 buy-in, $150 Prize for first place; $70 for second place; third place makes their money back Last place punishment - voted on punishment to be enforced with threat of ejection 2024 potential changes FAAB - free agency budget for weekly waivers instead of Rolling waivers Removal of trade deadline - unlimited trade activity across the season Tight end premium - Full PPR or 1.5 points per reception for tight ends Increased Number of IR and taxi spots Rivalry week Removal of kickers and defenses
REVIEWING THE 2023 ROOKIE DRAFT
1.01 Bijan Robinson has been the consensus best player in this draft class for the good part of two years now and Rod Beasts declined any trade offers for him, securing his place as a corner stone piece at the running back position. Robinson has ideal size at a time when the prototypical running back is getting smaller and smaller and shows great ability to contribute in the passing game, providing hope that he can become a bigger version of Christian McCaffrey. Bijan Robinson RB1-Rod Beasts 1.02 Looking for a true difference maker at the quarterback position, Team Minivann went with Florida's Anthony Richardson, one of the only prospects in history to receive a perfect Relative Athletic Score and the quarterback with the highest upside in the class. Although Richardson’s college stats are poor even compared to other athletic project quarterbacks that have been drafted in the past, much can be blamed on former Florida head coach Dan Mullen (the same head coach that refused to play Dameon Pierce much) and new Colts head coach Shane Steichen has a good track record with developing young quarterbacks. Anthony Richardson QB1-Minivann 1.03 With the first of three first round picks, Team Suyash went with Alabama's Bryce Young, one of the most accomplished college quarterbacks over the past two years. Young reminds some of Deshaun Watson (without the off-the-field issues) with his ability to create off platform and to elevate the players around him, hence why the Panthers traded the farm to acquire his draft rights. Bryce Young QB2-Suyash
1.04 With the first of his back-to-back top five picks, Broncos Country selected Alabama's Jahmyr Gibbs, a surprising pick at 12 in the real life draft but one that's understandable if you consider Gibbs to be a 190 pound plus wide back instead of a sub-200 pound running back. Gibbs’ receiving ability will allow him to be a deadly mismatch in the passing game and with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson's ability to scheme up creative looks for his players, Gibbs will become everything that the Lions expected D'Andre Swift to be. Jahmyr Gibbs RB2-Broncos Country Let’s Ride 1.05 Broncos Country spent the second of his back-to-back top five picks on Ohio states C.J. Stroud, the most pro ready quarterback in this year's draft class and a Heisman finalist in his two years as a starter. Stroud’s elite ball placement allows his receivers to catch passes in stride and the semifinal game against top ranked Georgia showed potential to create outside of the pocket, leading to optimism from Texans fans that he will be the one to lead them out of their rebuild. Perhaps Stroud's performance (combined with a little improvement from Justin Fields) can finally dispel the notion that Ohio State quarterbacks are coddled and not good fits for the pro game. 1.06 Team Suyash used the second of his three first round picks on standout wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, perhaps the next in line stud wide receiver coming out of Ohio State. Smith-Njigba produced 1600 yards opposite fellow first rounders Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave in his true sophomore season, including a 300-yard performance in the Rose Bowl, and profiles to be an elite target earner in a rejuvenated Seahawks offense. C.J. Stroud QB3-Broncos Country Let’s Ride Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1- Suyash
1.07 With his second first round pick, Rod Beasts went with 2021 Biletnikoff winner Jordan Addison, who joins a growing list of promising wide receivers coming out of USC. Addison's landing spot in Minnesota is almost perfect: Justin Jefferson routinely draws double coverage and Kevin O'Connell likes to run a fast paced and pass happy offense that should result in high target volume. Hopefully Addison doesn't do anything stupid (ex. driving on the highway at 140 Miles per hour) that jeopardizes the opportunity that he has in front of him. 1.08 The Chargers revamped their passing offense this off-season and ArabManChanda decided they wanted a piece of that pie, selecting TCU wide receiver and future Mike Williams replacement Quentin Johnston. For all of the hype about Johnston’s size adjusted speed, he has sneaky good run after the catch and route running ability, providing hope that he can be more than just a deep threat and a big bodied receiver. With Keenan Allen entering his 30s, Mike Williams being not much younger at age 28, and a huge chunk of the Charger’s future cap space being tied to Justin Herbert, Johnston has the potential to establish himself as the alpha wide receiver on an electric offense. 1.09 With his final first round pick, Team Suyash went with Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid, the best receiving tight end in a stacked tight end class and the Bill’s future number two receiving option (hopefully). Kincaid has the hip fluidity and movement skills that a tight end like Travis Kelce has and his college tape showed an ability to take over Games (RIP USC's playoff hopes). Stefon Diggs taking away most of the defensive attention and Dawson Knox being a capable blocker means that Kincaid will have plenty of opportunities to show off his talent. Jordan Addison WR2- Rod Beasts Quentin Johnston WR3- ArabManChanda Dalton Kincaid TE1- Suyash
1.11 With more and more backfields becoming timeshares and workhorse running backs becoming a thing of the past, the formula for finding productive running backs has simplified; receiving ability and potential to command goal touches are now the primary criteria. UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet fits those criteria and despite sharing a backfield with rookie phenom Kenneth Walker, Sino-American Patriots saw enough potential in Charbonnet’s talent profile and opportunity share to take a chance on him with the second-to-last pick of the first round. 1.12 Sensing an upcoming run on day 3 running backs in the draft, Team Minivann decided to get ahead of the curve and select Texas running back Roschon Johnson, a player that most certainly would have been drafted higher if he wasn't behind Bijan Robinson for most of his career. Johnson has good size, good pass protecting ability, and experience in the passing game-all attributes that will help him climb up the ranks in a crowded Bears backfield. Zach Charbonnet RB3- Sino-American Patriots Roschon Johnson RB4- Minivann 1.10 Lamar Jackson has always expressed interest in playing with Antonio Brown and the Ravens’ selection of Zay Flowers kind of fulfills that wish: Flowers models his game after Brown and both are undersized receivers that have insane shiftiness and route running ability. Looking for a hidden gem in the late first round, My Chubb Hurts scooped him up and hoped to capitalize on the Raven’s wide-open receiver room and the hiring of former Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Zay Flowers WR4- My Chubb Hurts
2ND ROUND MICHAEL MAYER KENDRE MILLER RASHEE RICE JONATHAN MINGO DE’VON ACHANE TANK BIGSBY WILL LEVIS SAM LAPORTA MARVIN MIMS CHASE BROWN TYJAE SPEARS JOSH DOWNS
3RD ROUND JAYDEN REED LUKE MUSGRAVE JALIN HYATT DEUCE VAUGHN HENDON HOOKER TANK DELL ZACH EVANS ISRAEL ABANIKANDA PUKA NACUA LUKE SCHOONMAKER DARNELL WASHINGTON CEDRIC TILLMAN
4TH ROUND MICHAEL WILSON DEWAYNE MCBRIDE KAYSHON BOUTTE JAKE MOODY XAVIER HUTCHINSON ERIC GRAY TUCKER KRAFT STETSON BENNETT SEAN TUCKER A.T. PERRY TYLER SCOTT BRENTON STRANGE
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 WEEKLY POINTS SCORED Points Points Against League Average Breece Hall Worst Benching: Trevor Lawrence 33.42 pts (Week 14) 129.12 pts (Week 2) Worst Week: 51.2 pts (Week 14) ’22 SCHEDULE & POINTS SCHEDULE:
2022 FINISH: 5-9 (8TH)Projected Starters Player ’22 Finish QB Justin Fields QB6 RB D’Andre Swift RB23 RB Breece Hall RB40 WR D.K. Metcalf WR19 WR Jahan Dotson WR42 TE T.J. Hockenson TE4 FLEX Christian Kirk WR11 SFLX Trevor Lawrence QB7 K Jason Myers K4 DEF Buffalo Bills DEF5 2023 rookie draft picks Pick Player Team 2.05 Devon Achane MIA 2.12 Josh Downs IND STRENGTHS After trading the farm for Justin Fields, this team figures to have two ascending talents at the quarterback position, each with massive upside going into their third season. Fields got a sizable weapons upgrade in the form of a DJ Moore trade this offseason and Trevor Lawrence is heading into year two under Doug Pederson’s scheme (Carson Wentz was an MVP front runner his second season with Doug Pederson). T.J. Hockenson should return to being a top flight tight end after quietly finishing the 2022 season as the 2nd highest scoring at his position (at least in PPR), though hopefully he can balance his massive spike weeks with more consistency from week to week. WEAKNESSES This team has big question marks at the running back and wide receiver positions: D'Andre Swift was let go by the Lions after having vision and durability concerns, Breece Hall is coming off a torn ACL, Rashod Bateman has yet to play a full season healthy, and Jahan Dotson is still the de facto second option on a team without a long-term solution at the quarterback position. Without set and forget players at these positions, it might be hard for this team to have a stable and consistent floor of production. BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE YEAR
2022 FINISH: 10-4 (6TH) STRENGTHS Despite changes in the coaching staff and personnel over the past few years, Patrick Mahomes is still the best overall asset in the super flex format and barring injury, retirement, or historic performances from some of the young quarterbacks in the league, looks to stay that way for the next couple of years. Stefon Diggs was on his way to having a league winning type season until Josh Allen hurt his elbow and without the addition of a reliable number two option in the Bills’ offense, Diggs could have another season with massive target volume. Aaron Jones has consistently dodged washed or being cut rumors for the past few years and with the Packers presumably treating Jordan Love with baby gloves this season, Jones could be in for a career year in terms of rushing attempts and targets. WEAKNESSES Rookie phenom Kenneth Walker received a huge blow to his long-term upside when the Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round this year and going forward, the distribution of targets and carries in this offense is very unclear. Cam Akers, on the other hand, seems to have a clear and defined role in the Rams’ offense, though his relationship with the coaching staff is very frail and there haven't been any running backs that have been able to rebound fully from an Achilles tear. Having Will Levis as the third quarterback on this team is also very risky, given that Ryan Tannehill might be the starter for the entire year and the Titans waited until the second round to pick him (second rounders have one less year of potential team control and if the Titans really believed in his long-term development, they could've traded back into the first round). Projected Starters Player ’22 Finish QB Patrick Mahomes QB1 RB Aaron Jones RB11 RB Kenneth Walker RB15 WR Stefon Diggs WR5 WR DeAndre Hopkins WR49 TE Evan Engram TE6 FLEX D’Onta Foreman RB33 SFLX Geno Smith QB5 K Matt Gay K16 DEF Miami Dolphins DEF18 2023 rookie draft picks Pick Player Team 2.07 Will Levis TEN 3.07 Zach Evans LAR 4.07 Tucker Kraft GB SLEEPER OF THE YEAR
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 WEEKLY POINTS SCORED Points Points Against League Average Stefon Diggs Worst Benching: Geno Smith 31.7pts (Week 4) Worst Week: 58.68pts (Week 3) SCHEDULE: 139.38pts (Week 8)
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 WEEKLY POINTS SCORED Points Points Against League Average ’22 SCHEDULE & POINTSAustin Ekeler Worst Benching: D’Onta Foreman 34.8pts (Week 8) 147.4pts (Week 8) Worst Week: 76.3pts (Week 10) SCHEDULE:
My Chubb Hurts. Projected Starters Player ’22 Finish QB Jalen Hurts QB3 RB Austin Ekeler RB4 RB Nick Chubb RB5 WR Keenan Allen WR40 WR Drake London WR38 TE Darren Waller TE24 FLEX Tony Pollard RB8 SFLX Justin Herbert QB11 K Justin Tucker K1 DEF Dallas Cowboys DEF2 2023 rookie draft picks Pick Player Team 1.10 Zay Flowers BAL 2.10 Chase Brown CIN 3.10 Luke Schoonmaker DAL 4.10 A.T. Perry NO 2022 FINISH: 10-4 (3RD)STRENGTHS This team was one of the main benefactors of the superflex draft lottery, landing an elite young quarterback in Justin Herbert to pair up with a league winner from last season in Jalen Hurts. Herbert should be back to his 2021 form after getting an offensive coordinator upgrade in Kellen Moore and a receiver upgrade in Quentin Johnston, leading to more scoring opportunities for Austin Ekeler. If these players didn't already provide enough offensive fire power, Nick Chubb and Tony Pollard occupy the second running back and flex spots, making this team a nightmare matchup on a weekto-week basis. WEAKNESSES On paper this team doesn't have many glaring weaknesses, though its championship winning potential will be determined by how much the wide receivers can overcome the circumstances of their situations. Drake London, quite possibly the most talented out of the wide receivers in the deep 2022 class, is stuck in a low volume passing offense with many mouths to feed and Brandon Aiyuk needs to separate himself as the top target in a talent heavy offense. Darren Waller is also coming off an injury plagued season and gets a slight downgrade in quarterback from Derek Carr to Daniel Jones. SLEEPER OF THE YEAR
Projected Starters Player ’22 Finish QB Derek Carr QB17 RB Rashaad Penny RB63 RB Travis Etienne RB16 WR Justin Jefferson WR1 WR Garrett Wilson WR21 TE Jake Ferguson TE48 FLEX Chris Olave WR23 SFLX Mac Jones QB23 K N/A N/A DEF Philadelphia Eagles DEF5 2023 rookie draft picks Pick Player Team 2.11 Tyjae Spears TEN 3.09 Puka Nacua LAR 4.11 Tyler Scott CHI STRENGTHS Having a wide receiver core of Justin Jefferson, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave seems unfair, especially when you consider the seasons that Wilson and Olave had with subpar quarterback play from Zach Wilson and Andy Dalton. Almost any quarterback change from last year would be considered an upgrade for these two and given that most wide receiver breakouts happen in year two, this team might make the playoffs just based off wide receiver production. WEAKNESSES Having a cobbled lineup of every starting quarterback with a heartbeat in the league doesn't seem so bad when you consider the future draft capital that this team has, though there is room for the top quarterbacks in next year's draft class to fall to a random team and for this team to be stuck with Mac Jones and Derek Carr. Travis Etienne received competition on early downs in this year's draft in the form of third rounder Tank Bigsby and with a recent shift in running back workload philosophy, there might be uncertainty in this team’s running back room for the foreseeable future. Jets Gm to Zach Wilson:
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 WEEKLY POINTS SCORED Points Points Against League Average Justin Jefferson Worst Benching: Garrett Wilson 25pts (Week 2) 194.02pts (Week 8) Worst Week: 72.8pts (Week 2) SCHEDULE:
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 WEEKLY POINTS SCORED Points Points Against League Average ’22 SCHEDULE 22 SCHEDULE & POINTS POINTS Christian McCaffrey Worst Benching: Tua Tagovailoa 38.86pts (Week 2) 130.3pts (Week 13) Worst Week: 67.14pts (Week 5) SCHEDULE:
Projected Starters Player ’22 Finish QB Tua Tagovailoa QB15 RB Christian McCaffrey RB2 RB Joe Mixon RB13 WR Tyreek Hill WR3 WR D.J. Moore WR20 TE Juwan Johnson TE8 FLEX Calvin Ridley N/A SFLX Deshaun Watson QB35 K Tyler Bass K6 DEF New England Patriots DEF1 2023 rookie draft picks Pick Player Team 1.11 Zach Charbonnet SEA 2.02 Kendre Miller NO 3.11 Darnell Washington PIT 3.12 Cedric Tillman CLE 4.12 Brenton Strange JAX STRENGTHS Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill are both players that are taken in the first round of redraft leagues and it's not hard to see why: their yard totals on a week-to-week basis provide a consistent floor and the offenses they are in provide upside for league winning touchdown totals. Calvin Ridley is coming off a two-year hiatus from the game and there are understandable questions about the level of rust he needs to shake off to be productive, though his route running ability isn't something that just magically disappears and he should be able to elevate an ascending Jaguars offense (much in the same way D.J. Moore should be able to improve the Bears’ passing game). WEAKNESSES Repeating as a champion in fantasy is never easy given the random fluctuations in luck from year to year, though this team might have an especially hard time with the various on field and off field concerns surrounding key players at key positions. Deshaun Watson did not look good coming off his suspension last year and even if you ignore the distractions caused by his off the field actions, age 27 is usually when mobile quarterbacks start rushing less and he could be heading towards a Dak Prescott-like evolution where the passing volume will still be solid, but the lack of rushing volume will lower his ceiling. Whether fair or not, Tua faces significant injury risk due to his concussion problem and one more could be potentially career ending, spelling trouble for Tyreek Hill as well. Joe Mixon has a fantastic opportunity ahead of him this season with little to no competition behind him in the running game, though he's entering the age and touch range where running backs start to decline heavily and a continuation of character problems could result in suspension. 2022 Finish: 5-9 (1st)BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE YEAR SINO-AMERICAN
2022 FINISH: 9-5 (5TH) STRENGTHS After winning the superflex lottery and securing Lamar Jackson, this team ended up with perhaps the best combination of quarterbacks in the entire league with Lamar and Josh Allen. Just having these two would be enough for league winning upside, but the rich just get richer and Travis Kelce's historic position advantage is added to an already stacked quarterback room. Sprinkle in a little bit of positive regression for Deebo Samuel and you've got yourself a true contender in the superflex format. WEAKNESSES James Conner might be one of the worst running backs receiving RB1 volume and Alexander Mattison, despite producing in the absence of Dalvin Cook, has mediocre efficiency numbers and a lack of team investment for job security. This might also be the season Mike Evans breaks his 1000 yard season streak, as a combination of age and horrendous quarterback play from Baker Mayfield looks to hamper his production significantly. BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE YEAR ARAB MANCHANDA Projected Starters Player ’22 Finish QB Josh Allen QB2 RB James Conner RB19 RB Alexander Mattison RB51 WR Deebo Samuel WR34 WR Mike Evans WR16 TE Travis Kelce TE1 FLEX Mike Williams WR32 SFLX Lamar Jackson QB14 K Jake Elliott K21 DEF Los Angeles Chargers DEF22 2023 rookie draft picks Pick Player Team 1.08 Quentin Johnston LAC 2.08 Sam LaPorta DET 3.08 Israel Abanikanda NYJ 4.08 Stetson Bennett LAR
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 WEEKLY POINTS SCORED Points Points Against League Average ’22 SCHEDULE & POINTS SCHEDULE & POINTSJosh Allen Worst Benching: Christian Watson 31.7pts (Week 10) 147.58pts (Week 11) Worst Week: 66.72 pts (Week 8) SCHEDULE:
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 WEEKLY POINTS SCORED Points Points Against League Average ’22 SCHEDULE & POINTSDerrick Henry Worst Benching: Chosen Anderson 19.2pts (Week 1) 128.94pts (Week 8) Worst Week: 36.5pts (Week 10) SCHEDULE:
Projected Starters Player ’22 Finish QB C.J. Stroud N/A RB Derrick Henry RB3 RB Jahmyr Gibbs N/A WR Cooper Kupp WR22 WR Jerry Jeudy WR18 TE Dalton Schultz TE11 FLEX David Montgomery RB21 SFLX Matthew Stafford QB32 K Harrison Butker K28 DEF Washington Commanders DEF11 2023 rookie draft picks Pick Player Team 1.04 Jahmyr Gibbs DET 1.05 C.J. Stroud HOU 3.02 Luke Musgrave GB 3.04 Deuce Vaughn DAL 4.04 Jake Moody SF 2022 FINISH: 5-9 (9TH) STRENGTHS The two stud running backs on this team represent an evolution of the position and a changing of the guard: Derrick Henry is one of the few running backs in the league that still receives 20+ carries per game and Jahmyr Gibbs is a multi-faceted weapon in the passing game that can be classified as a running back/wide receiver hybrid. Both running backs have diverse ways of contributing offensively and with the recent change to 0.5 points per reception, both running backs should have pathways to being running back ones. Cooper Kupp was on his way to another massive season until he was sidelined with an ankle injury and barring re-injury, should be near the top of the league in target share with no significant weapons in the passing game across from him. WEAKNESSES It's still unclear how much Kyler Murray's ACL tear will affect the scrambling ability that makes him so special and the Cardinals could potentially look to move off Murray this off-season, leaving his future outlook in limbo. C.J. Stroud is looking at a talent downgrade in terms of offensive personnel, a situation that not many quarterbacks going from college to the NFL have to go through, and with a defensive minded head coach at the helm, he could really struggle to adjust and there may be significant growing pains in the immediate future. SLEEPER OF THE YEAR
2022 FINISH: 3-11 (12TH) STRENGTHS Bijan Robinson should be an immediate contributor in Arthur Smith’s run-heavy offense, with the upside to have an Ezekiel Elliott-like rookie season given that fifth rounder Tyler Allgeier was able to come in and have 1000 scrimmage yards last season. Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are both tied to an elite quarterback in Jalen Hurts and both have shown the ability to command targets at a high-level. If the Eagles offense takes a step forward in terms of increasing pass volume (this could be the case with the Eagles having a harder schedule this year), it could be wheels up for both players. WEAKNESSES Although it’s been two years since J.K. Dobbins suffered that catastrophic knee injury and there’s optimism for him to have a true breakout season, there are still questions about his durability and his overall role in a pass-happy Todd Monken offense. Kirk Cousins is also getting up there in age and the Vikings could look to replace him this off-season with a younger and higher upside quarterback, potentially opening up a giant hole in the QB1 slot of this team. BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE YEAR ROD Projected Starters Player ’22 Finish QB Kirk Cousins QB7 RB Bijan Robinson N/A RB J.K. Dobbins RB48 WR DeVonta Smith WR10 WR Chris Godwin WR26 TE Dallas Goedert TE10 FLEX Isiah Pacheco RB34 SFLX Kenny Pickett QB28 K Daniel Carlson K2 DEF Seattle Seahawks DEF11 2023 rookie draft picks Pick Player Team 1.01 Bijan Robinson ATL 1.07 Jordan Addison MIN 2.01 Michael Mayer LV 3.01 Jayden Reed GB 4.01 Michael Wilson ARI
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 WEEKLY POINTS SCORED Points Points Against League Average ’22 SCHEDULE & POINTS Devonta Smith Worst Benching: Jimmy Garoppolo 25.42pts (Week 11) 104.18pts (Week 8) Worst Week: 47.5 pts (Week 11) SCHEDULE:
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 WEEKLY POINTS SCORED Points Points Against League Average Ceedee Lamb Worst Benching: Khalil Herbert 31.9pts (Week 3) Worst Week: 49 pts (Week 9) 107.04pts (Week 10) SCHEDULE:
Projected Starters Player ’22 Finish QB Aaron Rodgers QB13 RB A.J. Dillon RB26 RB Khalil Herbert RB37 WR CeeDee Lamb WR6 WR Amon-Ra St. Brown WR9 TE Pat Freiermuth TE12 FLEX Christian Watson WR25 SFLX Daniel Jones QB9 K Younghoe Koo K5 DEF Pittsburgh Steelers DEF18 2023 rookie draft picks Pick Player Team 1.02 Anthony Richardson IND 1.12 Roschon Johnson CHI 2.04 Jonathan Mingo CAR 4.02 DeWayne McBride MIN STRENGTHS Ceedee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown make up a young and elite wide receiver duo, with St. Brown having the opportunity to really ascend in his third season and join Lamb in the tier of wide receivers just behind Jefferson and Chase. Recent rookie draft pick Anthony Richardson has one of the highest ceilings of any quarterback in the NFL and if he manages to develop under QB guru Shane Steichen, he could have a season better than 2019 Lamar Jackson or 2015 Cam Newton. He has a stronger arm and better frame than Lamar and is faster than Newton. WEAKNESSES Every off-season, there's talk of Aaron Jones being released and A.J. Dillon taking the next step and yet, the Packers have always found a way to retain Jones and Dillon hasn't done anything in the past few seasons to warrant consideration for the starting role. At this point, Dillon might never get a chance at the starting running back role before his rookie contract expires and might end up in a committee situation similar to that of Khalil Herbert in Chicago. Herbert, while talented, doesn't have much receiving ability and is always going to be playing second fiddle to Fields in the running game. SLEEPER OF THE YEAR
STRENGTHS Most of the core pieces that helped bring a championship to this team in 2021 are still intact; Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase are a perennial week winning stack, Saquon Barkley is still Saquon Barkley, Jaylen Waddle is a threat to score from anywhere and Mark Andrews remains Lamar's favorite target. Add to this core a rare workhorse in Rhamondre Stevenson and the always reliable Terry McLaurin and it's not hard to see another title run from this team. WEAKNESSES Unfortunately, someone had to lose in the superflex draft lottery and this team went from having two elite quarterbacks in Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow to having Joe Burrow and Sam Howell, a brutal loss for any team but especially one for a team with serious title aspirations. Howell does have solid rushing upside and was once considered a first round caliber quarterback, though his pocket presence under pressure reminds some of Baker Mayfield's tendencies and his draft capital suggests a lack of job security. Projected Starters Player ’22 Finish QB Joe Burrow QB4 RB Saquon Barkley RB6 RB Najee Harris RB12 WR Ja’Marr Chase WR12 WR Jaylen Waddle WR7 TE Mark Andrews TE5 FLEX Rhamondre Stevenson RB14 SFLX Sam Howell QB58 K Cameron Dicker K31 DEF New York Jets DEF9 2023 rookie draft picks Pick Player Team 3.05 Hendon Hooker DET 3.06 Tank Dell HOU 4.06 Eric Gray NYG “folks they really want you to believe Richard didn’t make the playoffs, quite frankly it’s not true. in fact, I saw him go 9-5, even.”
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 WEEKLY POINTS SCORED Points Points Against League Average Ja’marr Chase Worst Benching: Joe Burrow 39.24pts (Week 7) Worst Week: 70.6pts (Week 9) 128.86pts (Week 1) SCHEDULE:
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 WEEKLY POINTS SCORED Points Points Against League Average ’22 SCHEDULE & POINTSDavante Adams Worst Benching: Josh Jacobs 32.5pts (Week 4) Worst Week: 60.24pts (Week 3) 137.86pts (Week 5) SCHEDULE:
INJURY PRONE Projected Starters Player ’22 Finish QB Russell Wilson QB16 RB Miles Sanders RB10 RB Josh Jacobs RB1 WR Davante Adams WR2 WR Amari Cooper WR8 TE George Kittle TE2 FLEX Dalvin Cook RB9 SFLX Dak Prescott QB18 K Brandon McManus K14 DEF Baltimore Ravens DEF7 2023 rookie draft picks Pick Player Team 4.05 Xavier Hutchinson HOU 4.09 Sean Tucker TB 2022 FINISH: 11-3 (4TH) STRENGTHS Davante Adams has proven over the years that he can be immune to bad quarterback play, producing with Brett Hundley in Aaron Rodgers’ absence and having a phenomenal season last year despite the struggles of Derek Carr. If there's any wide receiver that can overcome the chaos surrounding the Las Vegas raiders, it's Adams and he should be able to produce at a high level regardless of who’s throwing him the ball. In a similar way to Davante Adams last year, Amari Cooper was able to overcome mediocre quarterback play and with a full season of Deshaun Watson at quarterback, Cooper should get back to being a low-end wide receiver one with upside. WEAKNESSES It's crazy to think that running back could be a position of weakness for this team, considering the seasons that Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders had last year. Things change quickly in the NFL, though and Jacobs is facing a contract dispute with the Raiders while Sanders is joining an offense led by rookie quarterback Bryce Young that is sure to go through growing pains. Both running backs will have a hard time replicating the hyper efficient seasons of the past year and with Sanders, it's fair to question if his success was being propped up by the dominance of the Eagles run game. Dak Prescott is also getting an offensive coordinator downgrade in Brian Schottenheimer and with his rushing attempts decreasing every year, the point ceiling for the quarterback position on this team is somewhat capped. SLEEPER OF THE YEAR
Projected Starters Player ’22 Finish QB Jared Goff QB10 RB Antonio Gibson RB35 RB Javonte Williams RB86 WR A.J. Brown WR4 WR Tee Higgins WR17 TE Kyle Pitts TE33 FLEX Gabe Davis WR24 SFLX Bryce Young N/A K Evan McPherson K19 DEF Denver Broncos DEF28 2023 rookie draft picks Pick Player Team 1.03 Bryce Young CAR 1.06 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 1.09 Dalton Kincaid BUF 2.03 Rashee Rice KC 2.06 Tank Bigsby JAX 2.09 Marvin Mims DEN 3.03 Jalin Hyatt NYG 4.03 Kayshon Boutte NE STRENGTHS It had always seemed like A.J. Brown had the talent and the physical tools to produce as a top five wide receiver in the league, but lacked a certain it factor to push him over the edge. That it factor turned out to be an offseason trade to the Eagles, after which Brown formed a tight rapport with Jalen Hurts and established himself within the top tier of wide receivers in the league. The tight connection between Brown and his quarterback is the type of relationship that Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins also have, which has led to massive offensive production in the Bengals offense over the past two seasons. Higgins should have another solid season and there's room for upside after the Bengals brought in offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr. Kyle Pitts is still a unicorn at the tight end position and despite a massively disappointing sophomore season in terms of total output, the advanced metrics were still elite and the talent should win out in the long term. WEAKNESSES Given the heightened importance of quarterbacks in the superflex format and the lack of an established star at the quarterback position, there are a few questions about the week-to-week ceiling of this team. Jared Goff has always succeeded with a great offensive system around him and the Lions certainly have the pieces in place for Goff to succeed, though he might struggle more than expected due to the absence of Jameson Williams for the first six games and the presence of rookies at the running back and tight end positions. Recent draft pick Bryce Young has tremendous talent that will show itself as soon as he steps on to the field, though the production output might be rough for the first couple of years because of the talent deficiency at the wide receiver position and the Panthers’ lack of a 2024 first rounder. Jonathan Taylor might also lose some valuable goal line touches to Anthony Richardson (along with missing four games) and Javonte Williams is coming off a J.K. Dobbinsesque knee injury at the running back position. SLEEPER OF THE YEAR
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 WEEKLY POINTS SCORED Points Points Against League Average ’22 SCHEDULE & POINTSA.J. Brown Worst Benching: RondaleMoore 16.4pts (Week 8) Worst Week: 46.1 pts (Week 14) 91.16pts (Week 1) SCHEDULE:
“90% OF FANTASY PLAYERS QUIT BEFORE THEY HIT BIG” FIND A FUTURE STARTER TODAY
Schrödinger’s Running Back Is he dead? Is he alive? Or is he somewhere in between? This is the question that most of the league’s top running backs are facing this year, with many heading into their age 27 or 1500+ career carries season (usually the threshold at which running backs start to decline). With the help of the Chargers’ team doctor, we will look at top running backs that are at or over the age of 27 or 1500+ career carries and diagnose each as being dead or alive or somewhere in the middle. Name: Derrick Henry Age: 29 Career Workload: 1750 career carries Name: Austin Ekeler Age: 28 Career Workload: 811 career carries Name: Aaron Jones Age: 28 Career Workload: 1035 career carries Name: Nick Chubb Age: 27 Career Workload: 1210 career carries Name: Christian McCaffrey Age: 27 Career Workload: 1025 career carries Name: Alvin Kamara Age: 28 Career Workload: 1135 career carries Signs/Symptoms: From 2021 to 2022, Derrick Henry’s yards per attempt and yards after contact per attempt stayed pretty much the same (4.3 and 2.1 to 4.4 and 2.3), which might seem like great news for his future outlook. However, given the context of the foot injury that kept him out for nine games in 2021 plus his advanced age and carry total, as well as the Titans’ attempt to shore up their passing game, Henry seems like a prime candidate to fall off drastically in the near future. Signs/Symptoms: With one extra game played in 2022, Austin Ekeler was able to increase his total receptions from 70 in 2021 to 107 in 2022 and his yards per attempt and yards after contact per attempt went up (4.4 and 2.1 to 4.5 and 2.5). Although he is technically above the age threshold, the lack of tread on his tires and his heavy usage in the passing game means that Austin Ekeler should be good to go for the next couple of years. Signs/Symptoms: Even with an increase in the number of rushing attempts in 2022, Aaron Jones was able to see a massive increase in his yards per attempt and a steady hold in his yards after contact per attempt (4.7 and 2.3 to 5.3 and 2.2), giving people hope that he can still be productive for a few more years. Because of his lack of total career carries, Jones should be able to produce past age 27, though we could be seeing a significant drop in efficiency this year or next year. Signs/Symptoms: Nick Chubb had a career year in 2022, gaining over 1500 yards on the ground through 300+ rushing attempts and maintaining the high level of efficiency that we've come to expect from him on a year-to-year basis. Though father time is undefeated, there's reason to believe Chubb will be able to maintain a solid level of production well into his late 20s: he hasn't missed more than four games in a season throughout his career and he has already beaten the odds by overcoming a devastating knee injury in college. Signs/Symptoms: After missing most of 2020 and 2021 with various injuries, Christian McCaffrey was finally able to stay healthy and showed no signs of decline: his 2022 PFF rushing grade was the highest of his career and his yards per attempt went up from 4.5 in 2021 to 4.7 in 2022. McCaffrey is still safely under the 1500+ career carries threshold, though his personal injury history and the injury luck of running backs in the Shanahan system make it hard to trust him for more than just this year. Signs/Symptoms: Even if you ignore the potential suspension coming this season for Kamara's actions off the field, there is plenty to be pessimistic about: his yards per attempt and yards after contact per attempt have dropped ever since Sean Payton left the Saints and the team brought in Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller to serve as competition. At this point in his career, it's clear that Kamara won't be the hyper efficient running back he was earlier in his career and with him being over the age of 27, we could see a further decline in the explosiveness that made him so special. Diagnosis: In the nursing home and on his way to being dead Diagnosis: Alive and well Diagnosis: Healthy and fit grandpa Diagnosis: Superhuman Diagnosis: One injury away Diagnosis: On life-support
SCOUTING AHEAD WHO WILL WIN THE CALEB WILLIAMS SWEEPSTAKES? Caleb Williams is one of the most talented and hyped up quarterback prospects in recent memory and given the league’s recent switch to superflex, many teams will be trying to acquire the projected first overall pick in next year’s rookie draft. Right now, the odds-on favorite to get him is Shloak with 3 2024 first round picks and 2 2025 first round picks, though this could be a scenario like the 2020 New York Jets where a team wins too many games late in the season to let a generational quarterback slip through their fingers. Drake Maye isn't a bad consolation prize, though it’d tough to stomach the feeling of knowing that you just let another team draft the next Patrick Mahomes. It will be interesting to see which team gets his draft rights and how much of a king’s ransom they would get back, if they decide to trade him away. RUNNING BACK WASTELAND We've all seen the running back position become more and more devalued over the years: Melvin Gordon holding out for a new contract and being burned by Austin Ekeler duplicating his level of production, the Rams rolling with C.J. Anderson instead of Todd Gurley and being just fine, Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs folding after adopting a tough guy stance in contract negotiations, and Jonathan Taylor being stiff armed by Jim Irsay in his pursuit of a long-term contract. In terms of fantasy football, it’s now fair to wonder if stud running backs have any semblance of long-term value and if teams should be trading away these running backs very early into their rookie contracts or if the shortage of running backs has actually increased the value of the few reliable studs. Last off-season, Jonathan Taylor was the consensus top running back in dynasty and was worth 2 to 3 first round picks (depending on the scoring format). Now, you’d be hard pressed to find a team willing to give up a future first for him, though that fall in value has pushed up the value of guys like Breece Hall, who is coming off a torn ACL and has questions of his own. It will be interesting to see if this year’s champion and next year’s champion have running back heavy builds or if punting on running back is a sustainable approach. THIS YEAR’S VERSION OF: Every year there are a handful of players who come out of nowhere to break out or disappoint based on preseason and off-season narratives and those players have the potential to make or break season long outcomes for fantasy teams. In this exercise, we try to find this year's version of last year's breakout players and busts. Jalen Hurts - the third year quarterback with tremendous rushing upside that received a true alpha wide receiver in the off-season: Justin Fields Dameon Pierce - the fourth round running back with limited opportunities in college that establishes himself as the top dog in a wide open backfield: Roschon Johnson Christian Kirk - the former second round slot receiver who signs a large contract in free agency and immediately earns targets in an offense led by a young quarterback: Juju Smith-Shuster Josh Jacobs - the veteran running back who heads into the season with many questions and a desire to prove himself before hitting free agency that leads the league in rushing: J.K. Dobbins Geno Smith - the journey man quarterback in a good offense who everybody is skeptical of but has a great season: Derek Carr Jonathan Taylor - the stud running back who disappoints due to the offense around him struggling and increased injury risk after an outlier type volume season: Josh Jacobs Isaiah Pacheco - the undrafted/ late round running back with a great combination of size and speed who supplants the expected starter: Evan Hull Brock Purdy - the late round quarterback who replaces an injury prone Jimmy Garoppolo midway through the season and succeeds: Aiden O'Connell Jamal Williams - the power back on a good offense who steals rushing touchdowns from a more explosive runner: Zach Charbonnet Allen Robinson - the presumed number two target on a pass happy offense that supposedly upgraded situations in the off-season but actually fell off due to age drop off: Brandin Cooks