ASHIKA-MONTHLY-JULY-16

OPTIMISM BUILDING UP

are on lower side and indicating that this kind of Cameron announced his resignation. Scotland is agitating
situation may last but our recommendation is to wait for for independence and the opposition Labour Party has
the market to come around $1.90-80 level where traders been thrown into chaos. The chance of a Brexit has
can take risk in buying position and put a stop at $1.69 dominated pound trading in 2016, and sterling was the
for an immediate target of $2.10. most visible casualty as the U.K.’s decision to quit the EU.

In MCX, the picture is the same but a steeper price Even the separation process turns out to be a lengthy one
decline like COMEX cannot be pointed out for which we and this anxiety should be discounted by the market.
must be thankful to depreciation in Indian Rupee against Ongoing Prime Minister of UK Mr. Cameron said that his
the greenback. In case we witness any steep fall in price successor will trigger Article 50 and that’s may take things
due to fundamental factors, we can do the same thing by uglier and lengthier off course.
going long around 295 with a stop at 279 and the target
will be around 324. Momentum player can take the Technical Analysis
opportunity to short the market below 303 with a stop of
311 for the target of 295. Sterling is trading below 2009 Lehman even low of 1.35.
We are expecting market has to go down a bit near 1.27 in
GBP/USD coming days. And its hard to imagine Pound below 1.2500
range. And further more a speedy recovery in Pound
The big question for pound traders may have been cannot be expected (again Black Swan event such as
answered, but the outlook for the currency is murkier reversing Referendum is definitely going to change the
than ever. Sterling dropped 1.9 percent to $1.3422 in the whole picture). In monthly stochastics we have one
very next weekly open after Brexit which is even after positive diversion with price, but that needs much greater
8% historical plunge on decision day. Sterling suffered a time soon to play so we are not taking that into our
record one-day loss on Friday after Britain voted to leave account. A good gap down open below 1.35000 is off
the European Union, pushing it to the lowest level since course a momentum opportunity for the traders and our
1985. Investors face months of uncertainty — the advise will be too short the pair, but to place a stop above
mechanics and terms of the U.K.’s exit are yet to be 1.40 and the target will be around 1.2700 in may be
determined, and the nation’s political leadership during within August 2016.
the negotiations is unclear after Prime Minister David

Weekly Chart: GBP/USD Spot

51

JULY 2016JULY 2016
WORLD ECONOMIC EVENT CALENDAR - JULY 2016
4 5 6 7 1
52
JN: Monetary Base YoY US: Durable Goods Orders US: MBA Mortgage Applications US: Initial Jobless Claims JN: Jobless Rate
UK: Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI US: Factory Orders US: Trade Balance UK: Industrial Production MoM US: ISM Manufacturing
EC: PPI MoM EC: Markit Eurozone Composite PMI US: ISM Non-Manf. Composite US: ADP Employment Change JN: Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY
CH: Caixin China PMI Composite US: Markit US Composite PMI UK: Halifax House Prices MoM CH: Caixin China PMI Mfg
11 IN: Nikkei India PMI Composite EC: Markit Eurozone Retail PMI US: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort IN: Nikkei India PMI Mfg

CH: CPI YoY 12 13 14 8
JN: Machine Orders MoM
JN: PPI YoY JN: Industrial Production MoM UK: Bank of England Bank Rate US: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
18 IN: Industrial Production YoY US: MBA Mortgage Applications US: Initial Jobless Claims JN: BoP Current Account Balance
US: Wholesale Inventories MoM US: Import Price Index MoM US: PPI Final Demand MoM US: Unemployment Rate
UK: Rightmove House Prices MoM US: NFIB Small Business Optimism CH: Trade Balance IN: Wholesale Prices YoY IN: Exports YoY
IN: CPI YoY US: Monthly Budget Statement US: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort US: Change in Manufact. Payrolls
25
19 20 21 15
EC: Consumer Confidence
JN: Trade Balance UK: CPI YoY UK: Jobless Claims Change US: Initial Jobless Claims EC: CPI YoY
US: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity US: Housing Starts US: MBA Mortgage Applications EC: ECB Main Refinancing Rate US: CPI MoM
JN: Leading Index CI UK: PPI Output NSA MoM UK: ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths JN: All Industry Activity Index MoM CH: GDP YoY
US: Net Long-term TIC Flows UK: Claimant Count Rate US: Existing Home Sales US: U. of Mich. Sentiment
UK: RPI MoM US: Leading Index US: Retail Sales Advance MoM

26 27 28 22

US: Consumer Confidence Index UK: GDP QoQ US: Initial Jobless Claims JN: Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg
US: New Home Sales US: FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) UK: Nationwide House PX MoM EC: Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
US: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index US: Durable Goods Orders EC: Consumer Confidence US: Markit US Manufacturing PMI
US: Markit US Composite PMI US: MBA Mortgage Applications US: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort EC: Markit Eurozone Composite PMI
US: Pending Home Sales MoM EC: Economic Confidence
29

JN: Industrial Production MoM
JN: Jobless Rate
US: GDP Annualized QoQ
US: U. of Mich. Sentiment
EC: GDP SA QoQ

IN: India, US: United States, EC: European Union, UK: United Kingdom, CH: China, JN: Japan