Projections of the Number of Households and Families in ...

CURRENT POPULATION REPORTS

Projections of the Number of Households and Families
in the United States: 1995 to 2010

P25-1129

U.S. Department of Commerce
Economics and Statistics Administration

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS

Acknowledgments

This report was prepared by Jennifer Cheeseman Day under the general supervi-
sion of Gregory Spencer, Chief of the Population Projections Branch and Donald J.
Hernandez, Chief of the Marriage and Family Statistics Branch. Overall direction and
coordination was provided by John F. Long, Assistant Division Chief for Population
Estimates and Projections and Robert A. Kominski, Assistant Division Chief for Social
and Demographic Statistics.

Ronald C. Prevost and Arlene F. Saluter contributed professional consultation and
assistance. Marie Pees provided programming support and created the base household
file. D. Darcel Carter and Margaret Dunnington supplied clerical assistance.

The time-series model used in the preparation of these projections was developed by
William R. Bell and Matthew H. Kramer of the Statistical Research Division. Robert R.
Callis and Saundra S. Lord of the Housing and Household Economics Statistics
Division and members of the Population Division’s Statistical Information Staff provided
household information and data.

Donald J. Hernandez, Gregory Spencer, and John F. Long commented on the
report draft.

The staff of Administrative and Customer Services Division, Walter C. Odom, Chief,
provided publication planning, design, composition, editorial review, and printing plan-
ning and procurement. Cynthia G. Brooks provided publication coordination and
editing.

CURRENT POPULATION REPORTS

Projections of the Number of Households and Families
in the United States: 1995 to 2010

P25-1129
Issued April 1996

U.S. Department of Commerce
Ronald H. Brown, Secretary

Economics and Statistics Administration
Everett M. Ehrlich, Under Secretary
for Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Martha Farnsworth Riche, Director

ECONOMICS BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
AND STATISTICS Martha Farnsworth Riche, Director
ADMINISTRATION Bryant Benton, Deputy Director

Economics and Statistics Paula J. Schneider, Principal Associate
Administration Director for Programs

Everett M. Ehrlich, Under Secretary Nancy M. Gordon, Associate Director
for Economic Affairs for Demographic Programs

POPULATION DIVISION
Arthur J. Norton, Chief

SUGGESTED CITATION

Day, Jennifer Cheeseman, Projections of the Number of Households and Families in the United
States: 1995 to 2010, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, P25-1129, U.S.
Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1996

For sale by Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402.

1

Contents

Page

Highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Major Changes From the Last Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Introduction and General Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Three Alternative Series . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Elements of Household Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Household Types . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Projected Household Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Projected Number of Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Components of Household Growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Changing Population Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Changing Age Distribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Changing Patterns of Householdership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Changing Race/Ethnic Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Projected Average Size of Households and Families . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Projections of Household Composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Family Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Families With Children. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Families With No Children. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Nonfamily Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Living Alone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Projected Marital Status Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Effects of Alternative Population Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Detailed Methodology and Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Estimates of Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Starting Point Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Demographic Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Creation of the Household Population. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Creation of Future Proportions Maintaining Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Creation of Marital Status Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Creation of Married-Couple Household Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Creation of Other Family and Nonfamily Household Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Availability of More Detailed Data and Related Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Symbols . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

TEXT TABLES 5
5
A. Components of Household Projections by Series . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
B. Types of Households. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
C. Number of Households and Average Annual Increase: 1940 to 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
D. Average Annual Percent Change in Households: 1940 to 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2

E. Projected Increase in the Number of Households by Components: 1995 to 2010. . . . . 10
F. Average Size of Household and Family: 1940 to 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
G. Projections of Households by Type: 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
H. Projected Number of Families With Children Under 18 and Families With No

Children Under 18 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
I. Persons Living Alone by Age and Sex: 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
J. Marital Status: 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
K. Alternative Household Projections Using Different Population Projections: 2010 . . . . . . 17
L. Estimates of the Number of Households: 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, and 1994 . . . . . . . . . 17

FIGURES

1. Number of Households: 1940 to 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2. Household Growth Compared With Growth of the 15 and Over Population: 1940 to

2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3. Projections of the Population Ages 15 and Over: 1995 and 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
4. Projections of Changing Household Composition: 1995 and 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
5. Projections of Changing Family Composition: 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . 14
6. Projected Number of Persons Living Alone by Age: 1995 and 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

DETAILED TABLES

Series 1, 2, and 3

1. Projections of Households by Type: 1995 to 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2. Percent Distribution of Projected Households by Type: 1995 to 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
3. Projections of Households by Type of Household and Age of Householder: 1995 to

2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Series 3

4. Projected Number of Households by Type, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Series 1, 2, and 3

5. Projected Number of Families With Children Under 18 by Type: 1995 to 2010 . . . . . . . 30
6. Projections of the Number of Persons Living Alone by Age and Sex: 1995 to 2010 . . 31
7. Projections of the Marital Status of the Population by Age and Sex: 1995, 2000

2005, and 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

3

Projections of the Number of Households and Families
in the United States: 1995 to 2010

HIGHLIGHTS moderately from 8 million to 9 million between 1995 and
2010 and would continue to represent about 8 percent of
x The number of households in the United States is all households.
projected to increase during the next 15 years, reaching
103 million by the turn of the century and almost 115 x Currently, slightly more than half of American families
million by 2010. However, the rate of household growth have no children under age 18 living at home; by 2010,
during this period may be slower than it has been during 3 of 5 families may have no children under 18 present.
the past few decades due to slower population growth Although the number of families with children is pro-
and, specifically, smaller population cohorts entering the jected to remain near 1995 levels, the number of families
primary ages of household formation. with no children under 18 is projected to increase by 28
percent (from 36 million to 46 million) by 2010.
x The number of family households is projected to increase
by 15 percent (from 68 million in 1995 to 78 million in x The number of married couples with no children is
2010), adding more than half of the growth in total expected to grow by 7 million; all of the increase would
households. As a proportion of all households, family occur in the 45 and over age groups, burgeoning with
households would decrease slightly from 70 to 68 per- aging cohorts of empty-nest Baby Boomers.
cent.
x The average size of households is projected to slowly
x The number of married-couple households would con- decline from 2.62 persons per household in 1995 to 2.53
tribute most of this projected growth in families, increas- by 2010. The average family size is also expected to
ing from 53 million to 59 million between 1995 and 2010. decline from 3.15 to 3.05. Two major factors contribute to
Yet as a proportion of all households, married-couple these declines in average household and family sizes:
households would decrease from 55 to 52 percent increases in households and families with no children
during this period. under 18, and increases in persons living alone.

x Even though the share of households maintained as x Currently, about one-quarter of households are main-
other family households (female family householder or tained by a person living alone; this proportion is expected
male family householder) would scarcely change, (15 to increase slightly from 25 to 27 percent between 1995
percent in 1995 and 16 percent in 2010), the rate of to 2010. The number of persons living alone is projected
growth of other family households is expected to be to increase from 24 million to 31 million. Most of this
faster than any other household type (with an average increase in the population living alone would be between
annual percent change of 1.3 for female family house- the ages of 45 and 64 due to the influx of Baby Boomers
holders and 1.9 for male family householders). In total, in these age groups.
other family households are expected to increase from
15 million to 19 million between 1995 and 2010. MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE LAST REPORT

x Much of the driving force of household and family Projections in this report supersede the information
formation during the next 15 years will depend on the contained in Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No.
actions of the large post-World War II Baby-Boom cohorts, 986. The methodology used to create the projections in this
currently 38 percent of the population age 15 years and report has been modified, though it uses logic similar to
over. By 2010, the Baby-Boom cohorts will have aged to that found in earlier reports. Also changed are the base
their late 40’s, 50’s, and early 60’s. population projections and the household formation assump-
tions.
x The number of two-parent families (that is, married-
couple families with children) may increase from 24.6 These projections differ from previous CPS-based house-
million to a peak at 24.8 million in 1997, then slowly hold projections created by the Census Bureau since
decrease to 23.1 million by 2010. One in five households independently derived household estimates began only
in 2010 would contain a mother, father, and child(ren) recently and were not available for previous household
under 18 compared with 1 in 4 currently. projections. These household projections are based on
1990 census data and post-censal estimates and are not
x Other families with children (those maintained by per-
sons with no spouse present) are projected to increase

4

comparable with post-1990 results from the Current Popu- This report presents projected numbers of households
lation Survey (CPS) or reports generated by the Census and families by type of household, sex of householder (if
Bureau based on the CPS. The data in this report have not not married spouse present), and age of householder. Also
been adjusted to reflect the population undercount in the shown are the average size of households and families,
1990 census. The methodology section of this report marital status of the population, and the number of families
describes the reasons for these changes. with children. Series 3 also includes projections of house-
holds and families disaggregated by four race groups —
This report contains the Census Bureau’s first effort to White; Black; American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut (AIEA);
provide projections of people living alone and of families and Asian and Pacific Islander (API) — and by Hispanic
with and without children. Moreover, a new alternative origin. Households reported by race or origin of the house-
series presents projections of households and families by holder do not include assumptions about the race/origin of
race and Hispanic origin of the householder. other members of the household or mixed race/origin
marriages. Data are presented only in terms of the race or
INTRODUCTION AND GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS origin of the householder.

This report includes projections of the number of house- Unless otherwise noted, the discussion in this report
holds and families in the United States for the years 1995 refers to the projections based on the preferred series —
to 2010. These numbers are based on the 1990 census, as Series 1. Series 2 and 3 are included for illustrative
enumerated, with modifications for age and race1, and purposes.
household estimates from 1991 to 19942, and are pro-
jected forward using alternative marital status and household- Elements of Household Projections
type proportions. These household projections are not
intended as a forecast, but represent the results of assump- Household projections depend on future population growth,
tions about future trends in population change and house- future age composition of the population, and future life
hold formation. The increase in the number of households course patterns — described as householdership rates
(occupied housing units) is not necessarily identical to the (the population maintaining households within specified
volume of housing construction which may take place population categories). All three household projection series
during the projection period. The number of housing units is are based on the middle series in the Census Bureau’s
likely to differ from the increase in the number of house- most recent population projections. Assumptions regarding
holds because of changes in the number of vacant units future population growth and the age, sex, race, and
(vacant housing units are not counted as households), the Hispanic origin composition of the population are consis-
demolition of existing units, and conversions or mergers in tent with those reported in Current Population Reports,
existing structures. P25-1130.

Three Alternative Series Differences among the three series depend on the
assumptions about future life course patterns and the
Three alternative series were selected to illuminate future race and origin composition of the population (see
alternative patterns of future household change. Series 1, table A). For series 1, assumptions about future changes in
based on a time series model, is the preferred projection in family and household situation (e.g., age at first marriage,
light of past and possible future trends in household divorce, and the impact of the aging Baby-Boom cohorts)
change. Series 2 reflects the consequences of projected extend well-documented trends of the past 30 years.3 For
change in the age/sex structure of the population only, that series 2 and series 3, current patterns of family and
is, assuming no change from the composition in 1990 of householdership are assumed to remain at their 1990
the proportion maintaining households for specific types by proportions.
age and sex. This series provides a basis for evaluating the
implications of alternative assumptions in other series. Household Types
Series 3 reflects the consequences of projected change in
both the age/sex structure and race/origin composition of Household types are arranged into two groups: family
the population; again this assumes no change in the households and nonfamily households (table B). A family
composition in 1990 proportions maintaining specific types household contains at least two persons — the house-
of households by age and sex, also projected separately by holder and at least one other person related to the house-
race and Hispanic origin. holder by birth, marriage, or adoption — and is categorized
into three types: married couple; female householder with
1See Byerly, Edwin R. and Kevin Deardorff, National and State
Population Estimates: 1990 to 1994, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current 3For further information, see U.S. Bureau of the Census. Current
Population Reports, P25-1127, U.S. Government Printing Office, Wash- Population Reports, P23-181, Households, Families, and Children: A
ington, DC, 1995. 30-Year Perspective. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC,
1992.
2See Census Bureau Press Release CB95-108, Estimates of Housing
Units, Households, and Persons per Household for States: April 1, 1990
and July 1, 1994, June 12, 1995.

5

Table A. Components of Household Projections by Series

Component of change Series 1 Series 2 Series 3
Middle series
Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Middle series P25-1130 Middle series
P25-1130 Total by age and sex P25-1130

Composition by age, sex, and race . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total by age and sex Composition in 1990 Race and Hispanic origin
by household type by age and sex
Household change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Time series
by household type Composition in 1990
by household type

Table B. Types of Households

Married couple Family Households Female nonfamily Nonfamily
Male nonfamily
Female family Male family
householder with householder with
no spouse present no spouse present

Table C. Number of Households and Average Annual Increase: 1940 to 2010

[Numbers in thousands. Reference date is July 1, except as noted]

Number of households Average annual increase over preceding period

Year Series 1 Series 2 Series 3 Series 1 Series 2 Series 3

CENSUS ESTIMATES 34,949 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
43,468 (X) (X) 852 (X) (X)
1940* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52,610 (X) (X) 914 (X) (X)
1950* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63,450 (X) (X) 1,084 (X) (X)
1960* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80,390 (X) (X) 1,694 (X) (X)
1970* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91,947 (X) (X) 1,156 (X) (X)
1980* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1990* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97,723 97,695 97,574 1,155 1,150 1,125
98,857 98,801 98,641 1,134 1,106 1,067
PROJECTIONS 99,965 99,880 99,680 1,109 1,079 1,039
101,043 100,924 100,684 1,078 1,045 1,004
1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102,119 101,966 101,683 1,076 1,041 1,000
1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103,246 103,058 102,734 1,127 1,092 1,051
1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104,344 104,119 103,754 1,098 1,061 1,020
1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105,456 105,190 104,784 1,112 1,071 1,030
106,566 106,260 105,814 1,110 1,070 1,029
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107,673 107,324 106,835 1,107 1,064 1,022
2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108,819 108,426 107,892 1,146 1,101 1,057
2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109,982 109,543 108,963 1,163 1,117 1,071
2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111,162 110,676 110,051 1,180 1,133 1,088
112,363 111,833 111,161 1,201 1,157 1,110
2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113,568 112,992 112,271 1,205 1,159 1,109
2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114,825 114,200 113,426 1,257 1,208 1,155
2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

* As of April 1, from population censuses.

X Not applicable.

Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census. Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, Bicentennial Edition, Part 2. Washington, DC,
1975, p. 42.; Census of the Population: 1970, Volume 1. Characteristics of the Population, Part 1, United States Summary - Section 1. U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1973, p.1-278.; 1980 Census of Population. Volume 1. Characteristics of the Population. PC80-1-B1, United States
Summary. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1983, p.1-44.; 1990 Census of Population, General Population Characteristics, United
States, 1990 CP-1-1, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1992; and table 1.

6

Figure 1.
Number of Households: 1940 to 2010

(Series 1. In millions)

108.8 114.8

103.2
97.7

91.9
80.4

63.5
52.6

43.5
34.9

1940* 1950* 1960* 1970* 1980* 1990* 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year

* As of April 1, from population censuses.
Source: Table C.

no spouse present; and male householder with no spouse latter half of the 1990’s, adding about 1.1 million house-
present. A nonfamily household may contain only one holds each year between 1995 and 2000. The annual
person — the householder — or additional persons who growth during this period may be slower than the annual
are not relatives of the householder. Nonfamily households growth that occurred during the past two decades. After the
may be classified as either female nonfamily or male turn of the century when the generations born during the
nonfamily households. For each year, the total number of late 1970’s and the 1980’s begin forming households, the
households is the sum of the five mutually exclusive annual growth in the number of households is projected to
household types. By census definition, householders must slowly increase and by 2005 would amount to about 1.2
be at least 15 years of age. million households annually.

PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD TRENDS Similarly, the rate of household growth during the next
15 years may be slower than it has been during the past
Projected Number of Households few decades (table D). The relatively slow rate of growth of
households since the 1970’s4 is projected to slow even
The number of households in the United States is more during the remainder of the 1990’s at about 1.1
projected to increase during the next 15 years, reaching percent per year and remain at this level throughout the
103 million by the turn of the century and almost 115 million first decade of the 21st century.
by 2010, according to Series 1 (table C, figure 1). Almost 6
million households are expected to be added during the Components of Household Growth
second half of the 1990’s and almost 12 million households
would be added between 2000 and 2010. Changing population size. Future population change is a
key component of the projected number of households.
Due to the smaller population cohorts entering the Assumptions used to create population projections (i.e.,
primary ages of householdership, the growth in the number
of households each year is projected to wane during the 4Rawlings, Steve W. and Arlene F. Saluter, Household and Family
Characteristics: March 1994, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Popu-
lation Reports, P20-483, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington,
DC, 1995.

7

Table D. Average Annual Percent Change in Households: 1940 to 2010

[Numbers in thousands. Reference date is July 1, except as noted]

Period Series 1 Series 2 Series 3

CENSUS ESTIMATES 2.2 (X) (X)
1.9 (X) (X)
1940-1950* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 (X) (X)
1950-1960* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 (X) (X)
1960-1970* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 (X) (X)
1970-1980* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1980-1990* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.2 1.2
1.2 1.1 1.1
PROJECTIONS 1.1 1.1 1.0
1.1 1.0 1.0
1990-1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.0 1.0
1995-1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.1 1.0
1996-1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.0 1.0
1997-1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.0 1.0
1998-1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.0 1.0
1.0 1.0 1.0
1999-2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.0 1.0
2000-2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.0 1.0
2001-2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.0 1.0
2002-2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.0 1.0
2003-2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.0 1.0
1.1 1.1 1.0
2004-2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2005-2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2006-2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2007-2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2008-2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2009-2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

* As of April 1, from population censuses.
X Not applicable.

Source: Table C.

future fertility, future mortality, and future net immigration) 1980’s, transitions in household types by the middle-aged
determine much of the expected growth of the household Baby Boomers are not projected to appreciably influence
population. Although the size of the population is expected the total number of households.
to increase, the projected slower growth in the number of
households over the next 15 years will be influenced by Changing patterns of householdership. In Series 1,
slower population growth. Moreover, unlike earlier years the recent changing trends in householdership are extended
when the household growth rate far exceeded the popula- through 2010. However, the effects of shifts in household-
tion growth rate, the projected average annual increase ership rates are relatively minor compared to the influence
between 1995 and 2010 of both the population age 15 and of population growth and age composition (see table E).
over and the number of households may be quite close at Comparison of Series 1, which includes projected changes
about 1 percent (figure 2). in householdership rates, with Series 2, which includes no
projected changes in householdership rates, illustrates the
Changing age distribution. The age composition of the dominant role of the U.S. population age structure in the
population is an important component of household growth determination of the future number of households. For
since most new households are established by young example, between 1995 and 2000, projections based on
adults. As people move along their life course, the transi- Series 1 show an increase of 5,523,000 additional house-
tion to a different type of household (such as, through holds. Most of this growth (5,363,000) would be caused by
marriage, childbearing, divorce, or widowhood) may not population growth and change in the age composition of
necessarily change the total number of households since the population, and less than 3 percent of the growth
the creation of the new type of household is often offset by (160,000) would be caused by a change in householder-
the dissolution of a household of a different type. ship rates; i.e., life course patterns.

The projected slower growth in the total number of Changing race/ethnic distribution. Similarly, the shift-
households is primarily due to the relatively small cohorts ing shares of the population by race and origin has a rather
of young adults who will be forming new households during trivial effect on household growth. Population projections
the next 15 years (figure 3). Unlike the previous two suggest that the race/ethnic composition of the Nation may
decades when the large cohorts of the Baby Boom ampli- shift from 74 percent non-Hispanic White in 1995 to 68
fied rapid changes that occurred during the 1970’s and

8

Figure 2.
Household Growth Compared With Growth
of the 15 and Over Population: 1940 to 2010

(Series 1. Annual percent change) 2.4
2.2
population
household

1.9 1.9 1.9

1.6

1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1
1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

1940-1950* 1950-1960* 1960-1970* 1970-1980* 1980-1990* 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010
Year

*As of April 1, from population censuses.
Sources: Current Population Reports, P25-519, P25-917,
P25-1095, P25-1127, P25-1130; table C.

percent non-Hispanic White by 20105. As shown in table E, Projected Average Size of Households and
the growth in the total number of households based on Families
Series 3, which projects households by race, is very similar
to that based on Series 2, which projects household growth Series 1 shows that average household size and aver-
using total population increase. For example, between age family size are projected to slowly decline during the
1995 and 2000, the growth in the number of households next 15 years, from 2.62 to 2.53 persons per household
according to Series 3 is 5,160,000 — 203,000 less than the and 3.15 to 3.05 persons per family (table F). Two major
household growth projected using the total population only factors which contribute to this decline are increases in
(Series 2). By 2010, projections of the total number of households and families with no persons under age 18 and
households based on the two alternative series differ by increases in persons living alone.
less than 1 percent or about 240,000 households.6
It is important to note that the number of persons under
5For more details on the race/ethnic composition of the population and age 18 is projected to grow during this period from 69
the changing population shares, see Jennifer Cheeseman Day, Popula- million (in 1995) to 73 million (in 2010). However, the
tion Projections of the United States By Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic annual rate of increase of the under 18 population (0.36
Origin: 1995 to 2050, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population percent) is slower than that of the number of households
Reports, P25-1130, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, (1.10 percent).
1996.
Much of the driving force for any change in household
6The distribution of households by type of household is moderately and family size and composition of households during the
affected by using race and ethnic population projections. See detailed next 15 years will depend on the actions of the large
table 4. post-World War II Baby-Boom cohorts, currently 38 percent

9

Figure 3.
Projections of the Population
Ages 15 and Over: 1995 and 2010

(In millions)
5.0

4.5
Post-Baby Boom

4.0 Baby Boom (31-49)
Pre-Baby Boom

3.5

3.0

2.5
2.0

1.5

1.0

.5

0

15 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100+

1995

(In millions)
5.0

4.5
Post-Baby Boom

4.0 Baby Boom (46-64)
Pre-Baby Boom

3.5

3.0

2.5
2.0

1.5

1.0

.5

0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100+
15

2010

Source: Current Population Reports, P25-1130, middle series.

10

Table E. Projected Increase in the Number of Households by Components: 1995 to 2010

[In thousands]

Year or period Series 1 Series Series 3
Series 2
HOUSEHOLDS 97,723 97,574
1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103,246 97,695 102,734
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108,819 103,058 107,892
2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114,825 108,426 113,426
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114,200
5,523 5,160
INCREASE BY COMPONENTS 5,363 5,363 5,363
5,363 (203)
1995 to 2000, total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 5,158
5,573 – 5,368
Population growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,368 5,368 (210)
Difference. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,368 5,534
205 5,774
2000 to 2005, total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . – (240)

Population growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Difference. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2005 to 2010, total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,007 5,774

Population growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,774 5,774
Difference. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233 –

– Represents zero.
Note: Parentheses represent negative numbers.
Sources: Current Population Reports, P25-1130; table C.

Table F. Average Size of Household and Family: 1940 to 2010

Series 1

Year Persons per household Persons per family

CENSUS ESTIMATES All persons Under 18 18 years All persons Under 18 18 years
years and over years and over
1940 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1950 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.67 1.14 2.53 3.76 1.24 2.52
1960 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.37 1.06 2.31 3.54 1.17 2.37
1970 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.33 1.21 2.12 3.67 1.41 2.26
1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.14 1.09 2.05 3.58 1.32 2.26
1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.76 0.79 1.97 3.29 1.05 2.24
2.63 0.69 1.94 3.15 0.96 2.19
PROJECTIONS
2.62 0.70 1.92 3.15 0.98 2.17
1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.59 0.68 1.91 3.12 0.97 2.15
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.57 0.66 1.91 3.09 0.94 2.15
2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.53 0.63 1.90 3.05 0.91 2.14
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census. Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, Bicentennial Edition, Part 2. Washington, DC,
1975, p. 42.; Census of the Population: 1970, Volume 1. Characteristics of the Population, Part 1, United States Summary - Section 1. U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1973,p. 1-278.; 1980 Census of Population. Volume 1. Characteristics of the Population. PC80-1-B1, United States
Summary. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1983, p.1-44.; 1990 Census of Population, General Population Characteristics, United
States, 1990 CP-1-1, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1992.

11

of the population age 15 years and over. Already past the people living alone (figure 4). As previously described, the
primary ages of establishing new households, the Baby- aging of the Baby-Boom cohorts drives most of this change,
Boom cohorts (ages 31 to 49 in 19957) will age through the not shifts in family structure, per se.
peak years of family stability between 1995 and 2010.8 By
2010, the Baby-Boom cohorts will have aged to their late Family Households
40’s, 50’s, and early 60’s — ages when many parents’
children leave home9 (figure 3). By that time, the Baby- In Series 1, the number of family households is pro-
Boom cohorts would still account for about one-third (31 jected to increase 10 million (15 percent) during the next 15
percent) of the population age 15 years and over. years from 68 million in 1995 to 78 million by 2010 (table
G). The growth in family households would add more than
PROJECTIONS OF HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION half (about 56 percent) of the growth of total households
projected by 2010. Yet, since family households would not
During the next 15 years, the overall composition of grow as rapidly as nonfamily households (0.9 versus 1.5
households is projected to shift, with a decreasing propor- average annual percent change), due mostly to the aging
tion of family households with children and increasing of the Baby Boom, the family household proportion of all
proportions of family households with no children and households would decrease slightly from 70 percent in
1995 to 68 percent by 2010.
7Baby-Boom cohorts usually refer to the population born between late
1946 and 1964. Technically, because the population and household data The number of married-couple households would con-
in this report use a reference date of July 1, most of tribute most of the projected growth in families, increasing
the Baby-Boom cohorts may be 6 months younger than these ages (30.5 from 53 million to 59 million between 1995 and 2010.
- 48.5 in 1995). Married-couple households are projected to grow slowly, at
0.7 average annual percent increase between 1995 and
8For household discontinuation rates by age and sex, see table D in 2010. As a proportion of all households, married-couple
Donald J. Hernandez, Studies in Household and Family Formation, When households would decrease from 55 to 52 percent between
Households Continue, Discontinue, and Form, U.S. Bureau of the Cen- 1995 and 2010.
sus, Current Population Reports, P23-179, U.S. Government Printing
Office, Washington, DC, 1992.

9Current Population Reports, P20-483, table 3.

Figure 4.
Projections of Changing Household
Composition: 1995 and 2010

Households (Series 1. In percent) 1995
with children 2010

Two parent 25.2
20.1

Mother with 6.6
child(ren) 6.3

Father with 1.6
child(ren) 1.6

Households with 7.1 29.5
no children 8.3 31.5

Married couple 5.2 24.9
5.4 26.8
Other family

Living alone

Living with
nonrelatives only

Source: Derived from tables G and H.

12

Table G. Projections of Households by Type: 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010
Series 1

[In thousands. Reference date is July 1]

Family households Nonfamily households
Female
Other family Male

Year All Married- Female Male Total Total Living Total Living
house- Total couple house- house- alone alone
HOUSEHOLDS holder holder 29,340
holds 31,577
1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68,383 53,433 11,439 3,511 34,086 16,085 14,131 13,255 10,173
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97,723 71,669 55,496 12,272 3,901 36,931 17,095 15,035 14,482 11,195
2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103,246 74,733 57,371 13,084 4,278 18,301 16,093 15,784 12,244
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108,819 77,895 59,308 13,927 4,660 1.5 19,702 17,327 17,229 13,400
114,825 1.5
AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENT 0.9 0.8 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.8 1.9
CHANGE 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.8
1.1 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8
1995 to 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 0.9 0.7 1.3 1.9 30.0
2000 to 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 30.6 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.8
2005 to 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70.0 54.7 11.7 3.6 31.3
1995 to 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 69.4 53.8 11.9 3.8 32.2 16.5 14.5 13.6 10.4
100.0 68.7 52.7 12.0 3.9 16.6 14.6 14.0 10.8
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION 100.0 67.8 51.7 12.1 4.1 44.4 16.8 14.8 14.5 11.3
100.0 17.2 15.1 15.0 11.7
1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 55.6 34.4 14.5 6.7 21.1 18.7 23.2 18.9
2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLD
GROWTH

1995 to 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Table H. Projected Number of Families With Children Under 18 and Families With No Children Under 18
Series 1

[In thousands]

With children With no children

Year No spouse present

Total families Total Married Female Male Total Married
couples parent parent couples

1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68,383 32,585 24,607 6,435 1,544 35,797 28,826
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71,669 33,117 24,686 6,737 1,694 38,552 30,810
2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74,733 32,699 23,958 6,944 1,797 42,034 33,413
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77,895 32,203 23,126 7,189 1,888 45,692 36,182

PERCENT OF ALL FAMILIES 100.0 47.7 36.0 9.4 2.3 52.3 42.2
100.0 46.2 34.4 9.4 2.4 53.8 43.0
1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 43.8 32.1 9.3 2.4 56.2 44.7
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 41.3 29.7 9.2 2.4 58.7 46.4
2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 75.5 19.7 4.7
100.0 74.5 20.3 5.1
PERCENT OF FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN 100.0 73.3 21.2 5.5
100.0 71.8 22.3 5.9
1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

13

Other family households are also expected to increase Families with no children. Although the number of
— from 11.4 million to 13.9 million female family house- families with children is projected to remain near 1995
holds with no spouse present and 3.5 million to 4.7 million levels, the number of families with no children under 18 is
male family households with no spouse present. The rate projected to increase by 28 percent from 36 million to 46
of growth of other family households is expected to be million between 1995 and 2010 (figure 5). Currently, slightly
faster than other household types (with an average annual more than half of American families have no children living
percent change of 1.3 for female family householders and at home; by 2010, 3 of 5 families may have no children
1.9 for male family householders). But, the share of house- present.
holds maintained as other family households would scarcely
change (15 percent in 1995 and 16 percent in 2010). The number of married couples with no children is
expected to grow by 7 million (from 29 million to 36 million
Families with children. The number of families with in 2010). All of the increase would occur in the 45 and over
children under 18 is projected to increase minimally from age groups, burgeoning with aging cohorts of empty-nest
32.6 million in 1995, peak at 33.2 million in 2001, and then Baby Boomers. Similarly, the number of female family
slowly decrease to 32.2 by 2010 (table H). At the same householders and male family householders with no chil-
time, however, as a proportion of all families, families with dren would also increase by 1 million and 2 million,
children may steadily fall from almost half (48 percent) in respectively.
1995 to 41 percent in 2010.
Nonfamily Households
Two critical demographic trends occur during this period.
First, between 1995 and 2010, the large Baby-Boom The number of nonfamily households in Series 1 is
cohorts will age through the peak years of child-rearing and expected to increase almost 8 million or 36 percent during
subsequently, as their children also age, these cohorts will the next 15 years, from 29 million in 1995 to 37 million by
increase the number of families with no children under age 2010 (table G). Nonfamily households would contribute
18 present. Second, smaller cohorts born after the Baby about 44 percent of the growth of total households between
Boom will enter those ages during which they are most 1995 and 2010 and would modestly increase in proportion
likely to have children living at home. Even though the from 30 percent to 32 percent of all households.
number of children under 18 is projected to increase due to
higher fertility rates during the 1990’s and 2000’s than The increase in the number of female nonfamily house-
during the 1970’s and 1980’s10, the number of families with holds during this period (almost 4 million) would contribute
children is projected to decrease slightly. largely to the projected growth in nonfamily households.
Nonfamily households are projected to increase at 1.5
Currently about three-quarters of families with children percent a year from 1995 to 2010. Male nonfamily house-
include two married parents. The number of two-parent holds are projected to grow slightly faster at 1.7 percent
families may increase from 24.6 million, peak at 24.8 in annually and female nonfamily households may grow at
1997, then slowly decrease to 23.1 million by 2010. In 1.4 percent a year.
2010, 1 in 5 households would contain a mother, father,
and child(ren) under 18 compared with 1 in 4 currently. Living alone. One-quarter of all households (24 million)
are maintained by persons living alone; this proportion is
In contrast, other families with children (those main- projected to increase slightly during the next 15 years from
tained by persons with no spouse present) are projected to 24.9 to 26.8 percent (growing to 31 million people living
increase moderately from 8 million to 9 million between alone). During this period, the number of female house-
1995 and 2010, and would continue to represent 8 percent holders living alone may grow from 14 million to 17 million,
of all households but increase as a proportion of families and the number of male householders living alone would
with children from 24 percent to 28 percent. The number of increase from 10 million to 13 million (table G).
female-parent households is projected to increase by 12
percent (from 6.4 million to 7.2 million) between 1995 and The age structure of householders living alone is pro-
2010, continue to constitute 9 percent of all families, and jected to change substantially during the next 15 years
increase slightly from 20 percent to 22 percent of all (figure 6, table I). In 1995, approximately 2 in 5 one-person
families with children. The number of one-parent house- householders would be in younger age groups (between
holds maintained by men is projected to increase by 22 ages 15 and 44), slightly more than 1 in 5 would be middle
percent (from 1.5 million to 1.9 million) between 1995 and aged (between ages 45-64), and about 2 in 5 would be
2010. Still, male family householders with children would elderly (ages 65 and over). Although the number of people
constitute only 2 percent of all families and 6 percent of all living alone would increase for all three age groups by
families with children. 2010, most of the increase in the population living alone
(69 percent) would be between ages 45 and 64 due to the
10The total fertility rate dropped to a low of 1.7 births per woman in influx of the Baby Boomers. Likewise, the number of young
1976, then increased slowly to 1.8 in 1979, 1.9 in 1987, 2.0 in 1989, and and elderly people living alone is expected to increase
2.1 in 1990. Projected total fertility rates remain about 2.1 to 2010. See minimally due to the relatively slow growth in those age
Current Population Reports, P25-1130 for further discussion.

14 Families with children
under age 18
Figure 5. Families with no children
Projections of Changing Family under age 18
Composition: 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010
45.7
(Series 1. In millions) 42.0

35.8 38.6 32.7 32.2
32.6 33.1

1995 2000 2005 2010

Source: Table H.

groups. The age composition of one-person households married living with their spouse, married not living with their
would be evenly split among the broad age groups by spouse, separated, divorced, or widowed. The number of
2010, with about one-third in the younger age groups, ever-married adults is projected to increase from 152
one-third in their middle ages, and one-third elderly. million in 1995 to 159 million by 2000, and to 174 million by
2010, paralleling the increased population growth. Simi-
Gender differences of persons living alone by age are larly, the total number of people currently married and living
projected to persist through 2010 (table I). The population together would continue to increase from 107 million in
of persons living alone in 2010 would be predominantly 1995 to 111 million by 2000 and 119 million by 2010. Yet, as
male under age 45 (61 percent) and mostly female at ages a proportion of the total adult population, married couples
65 and over (78 percent). This difference is due to two are projected to slightly decrease from 55 percent in 1990
factors: first, most persons living alone under age 45 are to 53 percent by 2010.
never married and men continue to experience older ages
at first marriage than women; second, women on average The number of never-married adults in the United States
live longer than men.11 for 1995 is projected to be 42 million — 1 million more than
in 1990. Following trends of the past 20 years13, the
Projected Marital Status Trends number of never-married adults would increase continually,
reaching 44 million by 2000 and 51 million by 2010. The
Projections of the ever-married and never-married popu- proportion of single adults would remain the same during
lation are presented in table J. The category ever married the next 15 years, at 22 percent. Yet, at the same time the
includes adults (persons 18 and over)12 who are currently proportion of single younger adults would increase due to

11Saluter, Arlene F., Marital Status and Living Arrangements: March 13Current Population Reports, P20-484.
1994, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, P20-484,
U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1996.

12Discussions of marital status here refer to the adult population (ages
18 and over), since most persons younger than age 18 are never married.

15

Figure 6. 1995
Projected Number of Persons 2010
Living Alone by Age: 1995 and 2010
(Series 1. In millions) 5.1
75 years 6.0
and older
4.2
65 to 74 years 4.6

55 to 64 years 3.0 5.6
3.1
45 to 54 years
4.9
35 to 44 years
3.9
25 to 34 years 4.1
15 to 24 years
3.9
4.1

1.2
1.5

Source: Table I. 1990 census household count through the decade.15 It is
important to note that these projections differ from previous
the postponement of marriage. By 2010, 28 percent of CPS-based household projections created by the U.S.
adults in the age group 30-34 may have never married, Census Bureau16 since independently derived household
compared to 23 percent in 1995 (table 7). estimates began only recently and were not available for
previous household projections.
Effects of Alternative Population Projections
The U.S. Census Bureau produces several other prod-
All of the preceding results use the same population ucts which provide differing estimates of the number of
base, the middle series from Current Population Reports households; these include the American Housing Survey
P25-1130. The actual future course of population growth, (AHS), the Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS), and the Cur-
however, could vary considerably from the middle series rent Population Survey (CPS).17 The March CPS is the only
because of variations in fertility, life expectancy, and net one which presents annual detailed characteristics on
immigration14. A higher or lower future population would household composition. All three products indicate a greater
result in different household numbers. For illustrative pur- number of households than that found in the 1990 census
poses, the projected number of households based on the count (table L). Among the reasons for these differences
extreme lowest and extreme highest population projections are survey weighting differences, sampling frame varia-
series are shown in table K. tions, and reference month differences. After 1993, the

DETAILED METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS 15See Prevost, Ron, State Housing Unit and Household Estimates:
April 1, 1980, to July 1, 1993, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current
Estimates of Households Population Reports, P25-1123, U.S. Government Printing Office, Wash-
ington, DC, 1994.
These household projections are consistent with the
1990 census, as enumerated, and the household esti- 16Current Population Reports P25-986; P25-805; P25-607; P25-394;
mates based on administrative records which advance the P25-360; P20-123; P20-90; P20-69; and P20-42.

14The middle series includes assumptions of 2.1 children per woman, 17The American Housing Survey and the Housing Vacancy Survey
a life expectancy of 75.9 years in 1995 increasing to 77.4 by 2010, and net focus on housing units. By definition, the number of households is
annual immigration of 820,000 people. equivalent to the number of occupied housing units.

16

Table I. Persons Living Alone by Age and Sex: 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010
Series 1

[In thousands]

Age and sex 1995 2000 2005 2010

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24,304 26,231 28,336 30,727

15 to 24 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,181 1,239 1,370 1,472
25 to 34 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,911 3,706 3,743 4,079
35 to 44 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,850 4,288 4,278 4,118
45 to 54 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,098 3,850 4,500 4,926
55 to 64 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,964 3,488 4,479 5,556
65 to 74 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,201 4,019 4,031 4,584
75 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,098 5,640 5,936 5,993

Female . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,131 15,035 16,093 17,327

15 to 24 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 526 553 613 659
25 to 34 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,499 1,421 1,443 1,579
35 to 44 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,459 1,575 1,539 1,462
45 to 54 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,570 1,932 2,244 2,448
55 to 64 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,830 2,090 2,611 3,155
65 to 74 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,124 2,931 2,888 3,233
75 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,124 4,533 4,754 4,791

Male. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,173 11,195 12,244 13,400

15 to 24 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 656 685 757 813
25 to 34 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,411 2,285 2,300 2,499
35 to 44 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,392 2,713 2,738 2,657
45 to 54 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,528 1,918 2,256 2,477
55 to 64 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,134 1,399 1,868 2,400
65 to 74 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,077 1,088 1,143 1,351
75 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,107 1,182 1,203
974

Table J. Marital Status: 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
Series 1
194,078 203,852 214,017 225,206
[In thousands]
42,309 44,459 47,280 50,747
Marital status 151,769 159,393 166,737 174,459
107,289 111,408 115,146 119,016
Total population 18 and over. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
44,480 47,985 51,592 55,443
Never married (single) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Ever married. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Married, spouse present . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.8 21.8 22.1 22.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78.2 78.2 77.9 77.5
55.3 54.7 53.8 52.8
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION 22.9 23.5 24.1 24.6

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Never married (single) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Ever married. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Married, spouse present . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

17

CPS and HVS were adjusted for the 1990 census net data only for the total number of U.S. households by 5-year
population undercount,18 thus showing an even larger age groups; specific details, such as type of household and
number of households. marital status of householder, required to project the future
household composition, were not available. Therefore,
Starting Point Issues these items were obtained from the 1990 census and
carried forward based on proportional annual changes in
The 1994 household estimates, used as the starting the CPS. For each year, 1990 through 1994, sums of these
point for the household projections, presented two chal- detailed household types were calculated; these sums
lenges: lack of household type detail, and ‘‘jump off’’ point differed from the official estimates. To obtain estimates by
differences. In the first challenge, the household estimates type consistent with the official total, the detailed household-
consistent with the 1990 census as enumerated included type projections were multiplied by the ratio of their sums to
the official total estimates for each year.
18Beginning in 1994, the Current Population Survey began using in its
base population controls the 1990 census adjusted for undercount by the The second challenge emerged in the first projection
Post Enumeration Survey. For more specific details on the Current year, 1995. The difference between the total number of
Population Survey population base, see Bureau of Labor Statistics, households, controlled to the previous estimates (1990
‘‘Introduction of 1990 Census-Based Population Controls’’ in Employment through 1994) and the projected number of households
and Earnings, Vol. 41, No. 2, February 1994, pp.32-37. with no control produced dramatic shifts in the rate of

Table K. Alternative Household Projections Using Different Population Projections: 2010
Series 1

Household characteristics and age Lowest Middle Highest
110,378 114,825 119,564
Households (in thousands) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.49 2.53 2.57
AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD 0.59 0.63 0.67
All persons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.90 1.90 1.90

Under 18 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.98 3.05 3.12
18 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.85 0.91 0.97
2.13 2.14 2.15
AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER FAMILY
All persons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1994
(X)
Under 18 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
18 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97,107c

Table L. Estimates of the Number of Households: 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, and 1994 98,695c

Source 1990 1991 1992 1993 (X)
American Housing Survey1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (X) (X) 95,946
95,453a 94,724b
Current Population Survey2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93,347a 93,147b 95,669a
96,391a
94,312a 96,019b
96,426c
Housing Vacancy Survey3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94,224a 95,253a 96,391a
97,728a
1990 Census (April 1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91,947 (X) (X) 97,717c
Administrative records (July 1). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92,194 93,183 94,652
(X)

95,335

1Survey conducted every other year.
2 As of March. Monthly CPS household estimates vary from the March number due to weighting differences.
3 12-month average.

aWeighted using 1980 census-based controls.
bWeighted using 1990 census-based controls with no adjustment.
cWeighted using 1990 census-based controls with adjustment for net undercount.

X Not applicable.

18

household change from 1994 to 1995, an artifact of differ- in the proportion of persons with children but no spouse in
ent methodologies to arrive at the total number. Therefore, the home, especially for women. Although the proportion of
an overall check (by broad age group) was created by men maintaining other families has been increasing through
averaging the annual modifications for the 5 overlapping age 34, an acceleration of this trend seems unlikely.
years (1990 through 1994) and then applying these aver-
aged adjustments to the total projected number of house- Methodology
holds by broad age group for every year from 1995 to 2010.
The methodology used to create the projections in this
Demographic Assumptions report employed five household-type matrices: married-
couple household; female family household, no spouse
Various demographic factors influence trends in house- present; male family household, no spouse present; non-
hold change. Age at first marriage influences the proportion family, female householder; and nonfamily, male house-
of persons never married. Increased age at first marriage holder; and one marital status matrix (never married, ever
can lead to an increase in the proportion of younger married). Each matrix contained proportions by the demo-
persons in nonfamily living arrangements, either living graphic characteristics of the householder: age group
alone or with roommates and can reduce the proportion of (15-17, 18-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64,
persons maintaining family households. Divorces can influ- 65-74, 75+), sex (male, female), race (Total; White; Black;
ence household composition by leading to increases in American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut; Asian and Pacific
adults forming their own households; that is, family house- Islander), and Hispanic origin (Hispanic origin or not of
holds with no spouse and nonfamily households, thereby Hispanic origin). The projected number of households by
reducing the proportion maintaining married-couple house- type is the product of the proportions by type of household
holds. The effect of nonmarital childbearing augments the and the household population at risk.
proportion of family households with no spouse present,
especially female family householders with children. Post- Compared to earlier household projection reports, data
poned or foregone childbearing may also decrease the used in this report are blended from a large number of
proportion of younger married couples with children and sources: the 1990 census, the 1959-1993 Current Popula-
delayed childbearing may increase the proportion of older tion Surveys (CPS), estimates of the number of house-
married couples with children. Longer life expectancy holds (1990-1994), population estimates (1990-1994), and
(assumed in the base population projections P25-1130) population projections (1995-2010).
increases the proportion of married couples in older ages
by deferring widowhood; however, differential increases in Creation of the household population. By definition,
life expectancy by sex can lead to more people living alone the household population consists of the resident popula-
at older ages. All of these demographic effects may be tion excluding people living in group quarters (i.e., 9 or
accentuated by the changes in the age composition of the more people living together who are unrelated to the
population. householder). Projections of the group quarters population
(GQ) are calculated using constant rates (by single years
Although many of these demographic trends changed of age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin) based on the 1990
dramatically during the 1970’s and 1980’s, recent evidence census.20 For each year, the GQ rates were applied to
suggests some of these demographic components may be future populations by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin to
slowing and, in some cases, reversing themselves19. Hence, create the projected group quarters population. The differ-
the following assumptions and rationale underlie the house- ence between the projected resident population and the
hold projections. First, age at first marriage will continue to projected group quarters population is the projected house-
increase, but at a slower pace than previously. Since the hold population. The projected population in households
late 1970’s and early 1980’s, the quinquennial increases in was then summed for each year to form the ten broad age
percent never married have become gradually smaller for groups specified earlier and the under 15 population.
younger age groups (under 30). This suggests that we
have passed the peak in the rate of increase and may Creation of future proportions maintaining households.
expect more modest future gains in age at first marriage. The proportions used in Series 1 were initially founded on

Second, the divorce rate leveled off and declined slightly a time series model. This model was based on estimates of
after 1979. This had an especially striking effect in reducing the annual changes in householder proportions for the past
the rate of change in the married-couple household pro- three decades to project changes to the year 2010. One
portions ages 20-44. As these cohorts become older during hundred annual proportion series from 1959 to 1993 of
the next 15 years, a similar leveling can be expected at the
older ages. The leveling of divorce also moderates change 20These numbers cannot be directly compared to published results by
age and race because modifications were made to the data to adjust for
19For further information see Current Population Reports, P20-483 age misreporting and the reporting of an unspecified race in the 1990
and P20-484. census. This file also includes corrections to the census made through
March 1994.

19

marital status21 and type of householder22 data by age and parameter set equal to .85 for every series. This was done
sex were prepared based on Current Population Survey for two reasons. First, since the time series available are
data. Slight changes in the CPS and its universe during the relatively short (35 observations), there is actually consid-
time period required several modifications to the data in erable uncertainty about the correct or best values of the
order to preserve a consistent series of household propor- MA parameters. Second, it was believed appropriate for
tions (see P25-986). the most recent data to exert heavier influence in the
determination of the slope of the forecast line.
The 100 sets of proportions were first transformed using
the logistic transformation, which is often used to transform The preliminary projected results based on this model
a data set of proportions to better approximate a normal were judged to be on the high side of the range of
distribution. If xt is the proportion in a given category for the reasonable demographic assumptions. (See Demographic
year t, the transformed value, yt, is Assumptions section.) Thus, Series 1 projections were
developed by using projected slopes that were less extreme
yt = log(xt/(1-xt)) than those obtained from the model described above.
Specifically, the change in the proportions never married
Since values of exactly 0 and exactly 1 cannot be used were reduced by two-thirds for ages under 35 and three-
with this transformation, values of 0 were defined to be quarters for ages 35 and over; the change in the propor-
outliers, effectively removing them from the model fitting. tions for married-family households were reduced by one-
There were no values of exactly 1. A time series model third for all age groups. Since there was little projected
(discussed below) was fitted to each yt series. Empirical change in the remaining household types, those propor-
outlier detection techniques were applied as part of the tions were simply left at their 1990 level.
model fitting. The model was then used (with a restriction
discussed below) to forecast yt, and forecasts of xt were In order to provide projections more refined than in the
obtained from the inverse transformation, past with regard to living alone and children in households,
special tabulations from the 1990 census were generated
x = exp(y )/(1 + exp(y )).t for this report; these proportions are assumed to remain
tt constant at their 1990 levels throughout the projected time
period. This included the proportion of nonfamily house-
The time series model used was the ARIMA(0,2,1) holds with people living alone, the proportion of families by
type of family with children, and the proportion of married
model, which involves twice differencing the yt series and couples by sex of the reference person
modeling autocorrelation in the resulting differenced series
Creation of marital status projections. Since house-
with a moving average (MA) model of order 1. This model holders and spouses in married-couple families are limited
to the population who are ever married, projections of
was used in developing a previous set of household married-couple families require projections of the marital
status (never married and ever married) of the future
projections, as discussed in more detail by Bell, et al. household population. First, initial proportions of the house-
hold population ever married by age, sex, race, and
(1986).23 Forecasts from this model (of the transformed Hispanic origin were created. Then, future proportions
were derived by multiplying the ever-married proportion’s
data) follow a straight line emanating from the last data projected rate of change (based on time series data for
Series 1; for Series 2 and 3 the projected change is 1.0;
point. The slope of the forecast line is estimated by a that is, no change) by the previous year’s proportion by
age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. These proportions are
weighted average of the year-to-year changes (first differ- multiplied by the projected household population for each
corresponding year to produce the projected ever-married
ences), with more weight given to the changes in recent population for each year.

years as long as the MA parameter is less than 1. The Creation of married-couple household projections. Cur-
rent proportions of married-couple families are based on
model implicitly allows for changing trends in that as new the ever-married universe. The change in the projected
proportion of married-couple families (based on time series
data become available the slope of the forecast line data for Series 1; for Series 2 and 3, the projected change
is 1.0; that is, no change) is multiplied by the current rate
changes.

When the ARIMA(0,2,1) model was fitted to the 100 time

series of transformed proportions, estimates of the MA

parameter were equal to 1 for about 75 percent of the

series, and for many of the remaining series the parameter

estimates were near 1. When the MA parameter is 1, the

ARIMA(0,2,1) model reduces to a constant slope model

with all the historical data given equal weight in determining

the slope. Rather than accept this result from the fitted

models, forecasting was instead performed with the MA

21Only one marital status group needed to be calculated since the

remainder is ever married.
22These householder types included married-couple householders,

family householders with no spouse present, and nonfamily household-

ers; this series also included proportions of persons in households not

related to the householder.
23Bell, William R., James E. Bozik, Sandra K. McKenzie, and Holly B.

Shulman (1986) Time Series Analysis of Household Headship Propor-
tions: 1959-1985, Research Report Number 86/01, Statistical Research
Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census.

20

for each subsequent year, creating projected annual pro- The following U.S. Census Bureau reports contain house-
portions of married-couple households. Then, the projected hold and family data relating to that shown in this report:
proportions of married-couple households by age, sex,
race, and Hispanic origin for each year are applied to the P25-1130 Population Projections of the United
future ever-married population to produce the annual num- States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic
ber of married-couple households.24 CB95-108 Origin: 1995 to 2050

Creation of other family and nonfamily household P25-1127 Press Release: Estimates of Housing
projections. The universe for female family households, P25-1123 Units, Households, and Persons for
male family households, and nonfamily households is the P20-484 States: April 1, 1990, and July 1, 1994
total population in households minus the population in P20-483
married-couple households (husbands and wives). Starting P23-181 National and State Population Esti-
proportions from the 1990 census are created for each P23-180 mates: 1990 to 1994
household type for the base year by age, sex, race, and P23-179
Hispanic origin. Then, projected proportions are created by P23-165 State Housing Unit and Household Esti-
applying the annual change in the household formation by P70-38 mates: April 1, 1980, to July 1, 1993
type (based on time series data for Series 1; for Series 2
and 3, the projected change is 1.0; that is, no change) to Marital Status and Living Arrangements:
the proportion in the previous year. The number of house- March 1994
holds by type are derived by multiplying the annual propor-
tions by the population for each year. Household and Family Characteristics:
March 1994
AVAILABILITY OF MORE DETAILED DATA AND
RELATED REPORTS Households, Families, and Children: A
30-Year Perspective
Space limitations restrict publication in this report of all
data produced for the three projections series. More detailed Marriage, Divorce, and Remarriage in
data are available, from the Bureau of the Census, either in the 1990’s
paper copy or in machine readable form. Further informa-
tion may be obtained by contacting the Statistical Informa- Studies in Household and Family For-
tion Staff, Population Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census, mation
Washington, DC 20233-3400. Data also are available on
the U.S. Census Bureau’s site on the Internet (www.cen- Work and Family Patterns of American
sus.gov). Women

24As a technical refinement to take into account current data collection The Diverse Living Arrangements of
procedures which distinguish whether the husband or wife is listed as the Children: Summer 1991
reference person in a married-couple household, the following adjustment
was made. The number of married-couple men and women was obtained SYMBOLS
as the average number of males and females maintaining married-couple
households. Using proportions of reported male and female householders – Represents zero or rounds to zero.
in married-couple households from the 1990 census, the sex of the NA Not available.
householder was determined for each age/race/origin group; the remain- X Not applicable.
der were classified as spouses.

21

Table 1. Projections of Households by Type: 1995 to 2010
Series 1, 2, and 3

[Reference date is July 1]

Family households Nonfamily households Average number
of persons—

Series and year Other family

Per

All Married Female Male Female Male house- Per
households family
Total couple householder householder Total householder householder hold

SERIES 1

1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97,722,883 68,382,680 53,432,915 11,438,681 3,511,084 29,340,203 16,084,937 13,255,266 2.62 3.15
1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98,856,603 69,089,808 53,893,439 11,606,809 3,589,560 29,766,795 16,269,403 13,497,392 2.61 3.14
1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99,965,175 69,760,723 54,319,173 11,773,519 3,668,031 30,204,452 16,463,794 13,740,658 2.61 3.14
1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101,042,864 70,387,012 54,707,260 11,934,856 3,744,896 30,655,852 16,670,950 13,984,902 2.60 3.13
1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102,118,600 71,014,836 55,091,779 12,100,606 3,822,451 31,103,764 16,875,311 14,228,453 2.60 3.13

2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103,245,963 71,668,930 55,495,517 12,272,004 3,901,409 31,577,033 17,094,590 14,482,443 2.59 3.12
2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104,344,445 72,310,665 55,885,976 12,446,308 3,978,381 32,033,780 17,304,585 14,729,195 2.59 3.11
2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105,456,124 72,917,696 56,266,221 12,599,164 4,052,311 32,538,428 17,549,113 14,989,315 2.58 3.11
2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106,566,127 73,511,099 56,626,719 12,757,287 4,127,093 33,055,028 17,801,273 15,253,755 2.58 3.10
2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107,672,899 74,107,904 56,988,327 12,917,753 4,201,824 33,564,995 18,048,628 15,516,367 2.57 3.09

2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108,818,659 74,732,880 57,370,994 13,083,981 4,277,905 34,085,779 18,301,408 15,784,371 2.57 3.09
2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109,981,970 75,361,827 57,755,561 13,251,031 4,355,235 34,620,143 18,561,511 16,058,632 2.56 3.08
2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111,162,259 75,997,067 58,147,607 13,418,598 4,430,862 35,165,192 18,828,993 16,336,199 2.55 3.07
2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112,362,848 76,615,834 58,527,251 13,582,132 4,506,451 35,747,014 19,119,565 16,627,449 2.55 3.07
2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113,567,967 77,241,400 58,908,384 13,751,082 4,581,934 36,326,567 19,405,806 16,920,761 2.54 3.06
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114,825,428 77,894,830 59,308,021 13,926,532 4,660,277 36,930,598 19,702,084 17,228,514 2.53 3.05

SERIES 2

1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97,694,760 68,837,033 54,267,416 11,154,518 3,415,099 28,857,727 15,913,381 12,944,346 2.62 3.14
1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98,801,180 69,642,938 54,926,039 11,248,424 3,468,475 29,158,242 16,053,245 13,104,997 2.62 3.14
1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99,879,980 70,413,821 55,553,244 11,339,611 3,520,966 29,466,159 16,201,540 13,264,619 2.61 3.13
1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100,924,490 71,140,587 56,145,060 11,424,475 3,571,052 29,783,903 16,360,945 13,422,958 2.61 3.13
1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101,965,560 71,870,306 56,736,808 11,512,401 3,621,097 30,095,254 16,516,369 13,578,885 2.60 3.12

2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103,057,635 72,627,721 57,350,917 11,604,767 3,672,037 30,429,914 16,686,075 13,743,839 2.60 3.12
2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104,119,045 73,374,380 57,955,355 11,698,670 3,720,355 30,744,665 16,845,060 13,899,605 2.59 3.11
2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105,189,833 74,089,499 58,553,140 11,771,580 3,764,779 31,100,334 17,035,496 14,064,838 2.59 3.10
2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106,259,988 74,792,966 59,134,015 11,849,247 3,809,704 31,467,022 17,233,314 14,233,708 2.58 3.10
2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107,324,286 75,501,804 59,720,229 11,927,775 3,853,800 31,822,482 17,424,375 14,398,107 2.58 3.09

2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108,425,541 76,240,892 60,331,974 12,010,490 3,898,428 32,184,649 17,619,226 14,565,423 2.57 3.09
2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109,542,588 76,985,707 60,948,962 12,093,094 3,943,651 32,556,881 17,820,103 14,736,778 2.57 3.08
2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110,675,857 77,737,669 61,574,606 12,175,879 3,987,184 32,938,188 18,027,943 14,910,245 2.56 3.08
2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111,833,083 78,471,219 62,183,689 12,255,980 4,031,550 33,361,864 18,262,171 15,099,693 2.56 3.07
2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112,991,763 79,215,583 62,800,539 12,340,240 4,074,804 33,776,180 18,488,895 15,287,285 2.55 3.07
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114,199,622 79,990,044 63,441,719 12,428,486 4,119,839 34,209,578 18,723,493 15,486,085 2.55 3.06

SERIES 3

1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97,574,189 68,872,603 54,064,426 11,336,429 3,471,748 28,701,586 15,799,625 12,901,961 2.62 3.14
1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98,641,315 69,674,088 54,674,787 11,463,777 3,535,524 28,967,227 15,914,198 13,053,029 2.62 3.14
1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99,680,030 70,439,696 55,252,827 11,588,373 3,598,496 29,240,334 16,037,537 13,202,797 2.62 3.13
1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100,683,716 71,161,368 55,795,398 11,706,994 3,658,976 29,522,348 16,171,073 13,351,275 2.61 3.13
1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101,683,469 71,885,581 56,338,766 11,827,365 3,719,450 29,797,888 16,300,363 13,497,525 2.61 3.12

2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102,734,349 72,637,651 56,904,364 11,952,311 3,780,976 30,096,698 16,443,281 13,653,417 2.61 3.12
2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103,754,014 73,378,966 57,461,517 12,077,637 3,839,812 30,375,048 16,574,784 13,800,264 2.60 3.11
2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104,784,362 74,090,082 58,010,418 12,184,607 3,895,057 30,694,280 16,737,426 13,956,854 2.60 3.11
2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105,813,805 74,789,113 58,543,186 12,295,128 3,950,799 31,024,692 16,907,152 14,117,540 2.60 3.10
2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106,835,305 75,493,071 59,080,407 12,406,575 4,006,089 31,342,234 17,069,178 14,273,056 2.59 3.10

2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107,892,079 76,227,200 59,642,441 12,522,567 4,062,192 31,664,879 17,233,807 14,431,072 2.59 3.09
2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108,963,276 76,967,698 60,209,569 12,638,983 4,119,146 31,995,578 17,403,252 14,592,326 2.58 3.09
2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110,051,064 77,716,383 60,784,900 12,756,689 4,174,794 32,334,681 17,579,493 14,755,188 2.58 3.08
2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111,161,226 78,446,730 61,342,277 12,872,767 4,231,686 32,714,496 17,780,666 14,933,830 2.57 3.07
2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112,270,638 79,187,519 61,906,394 12,993,258 4,287,867 33,083,119 17,973,497 15,109,622 2.57 3.07
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113,425,776 79,957,976 62,494,303 13,117,622 4,346,051 33,467,800 18,172,225 15,295,575 2.56 3.06







Table 3. Projections of Households by Type of Household and Age of Hou

Series 1, 2, and 3

[Reference date is July 1]

Series, type of household, and 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
age of householder
16,084,937 16,269,403 16,463,794 16,670,950 16,875,311 17,094,590 17,304,585 1
SERIES 1–Con. 1,041,997 1,023,490 1
1,058,230 1,068,657 1,026,125 1,044,521 1,070,463 1,099,451 1,131,362
Nonfamily Households 993,939 976,861 1,068,894 1,062,279 1,047,680 1,031,022 1,010,136
1,775,981 1,818,032
Female householder . . 1,807,110 1,891,018 956,313 935,833 920,791 917,698 926,011
1,958,639 1,980,598 1,853,516 1,883,380 1,905,992 1,917,846 1,919,250
Under 25 years . . . . . . . . . . 3,229,576 3,198,664
25 to 29 years . . . . . . . . . . . 4,219,465 4,312,083 1,976,602 2,045,307 2,130,880 2,224,179 2,326,989
30 to 34 years . . . . . . . . . . . 2,024,962 2,106,158 2,177,319 2,236,335 2,292,111
35 to 44 years . . . . . . . . . . . 13,255,266 13,497,392 3,150,942 3,107,611 3,058,507 3,030,344 3,004,831
4,406,440 4,485,861 4,563,679 4,637,715 4,693,895
45 to 54 years . . . . . . . . . . . 1,317,974 1,291,117
55 to 64 years . . . . . . . . . . . 1,709,418 1,721,360 13,740,658 13,984,902 14,228,453 14,482,443 14,729,195
65 to 74 years . . . . . . . . . . . 1,780,936 1,757,698
75 years and over . . . . . . . . 3,042,635 3,149,668 1,291,793 1,312,563 1,343,702 1,379,289 1,418,874
1,876,631 1,973,480 1,717,958 1,702,563 1,674,109 1,643,777 1,606,877
Male householder. . . . . 1,312,525 1,349,992 1,725,575 1,693,342 1,669,509 1,666,095 1,681,044
1,183,149 1,188,716 3,245,308 3,330,411 3,401,734 3,451,430 3,480,270
Under 25 years . . . . . . . . . . 1,031,998 1,065,361
25 to 29 years . . . . . . . . . . . 2,071,688 2,151,004 2,248,518 2,355,346 2,470,126
30 to 34 years . . . . . . . . . . . 97,694,760 98,801,180 1,402,910 1,482,650 1,554,429 1,618,923 1,680,631
35 to 44 years . . . . . . . . . . . 4,839,877 4,730,651 1,187,655 1,188,378 1,187,075 1,194,670 1,201,447
7,947,380 7,949,708 1,097,771 1,123,991 1,149,377 1,172,913 1,189,926
45 to 54 years . . . . . . . . . . .
55 to 64 years . . . . . . . . . . . 10,825,237 10,564,339 99,879,980 100,924,490 101,965,560 103,057,635 104,119,045 10
65 to 74 years . . . . . . . . . . . 22,756,202 23,172,536
75 years and over . . . . . . . . 17,656,603 18,352,454 4,723,210 4,786,633 4,887,902 5,006,074 5,137,241 2
12,304,625 12,431,695 7,880,110 7,758,503 7,581,550 7,398,260 7,189,713 2
SERIES 2 11,885,057 11,843,038 10,261,565 9,965,251 9,728,206 9,616,885 9,618,940 1
23,495,708 23,734,779 23,873,654 23,862,604 23,717,457 1
All Households 9,479,779 9,756,759 1
19,050,252 19,564,860 20,234,764 20,971,995 21,777,554
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54,267,416 54,926,039 12,696,281 13,189,900 13,603,900 13,940,525 14,249,859
11,738,880 11,654,603 11,551,791 11,533,100 11,518,282
Under 25 years . . . . . . . . . . 1,509,726 1,470,782 10,033,974 10,269,961 10,503,793 10,728,192 10,909,999
25 to 29 years . . . . . . . . . . . 3,940,786 3,937,499
30 to 34 years . . . . . . . . . . . 6,308,718 6,152,267 55,553,244 56,145,060 56,736,808 57,350,917 57,955,355 5
35 to 44 years . . . . . . . . . . . 14,126,608 14,380,044
11,325,221 11,765,906 1,465,396 1,480,690 1,509,394 1,545,032 1,584,152 1
45 to 54 years . . . . . . . . . . . 7,646,143 7,723,890 3,898,870 3,834,040 3,742,469 3,649,107 3,544,169 1
55 to 64 years . . . . . . . . . . . 6,227,422 6,207,878 5,970,813 5,793,780 5,651,605 5,582,479 5,578,804
65 to 74 years . . . . . . . . . . . 3,182,792 3,287,773 14,575,524 14,717,750 14,797,842 14,783,377 14,686,966
75 years and over . . . . . . . .
12,207,841 12,530,661 12,954,234 13,421,765 13,933,116
Family Households 7,887,144 8,192,900 8,446,706 8,652,743 8,842,092
6,156,655 6,117,630 6,070,608 6,069,492 6,070,051
Married couple . . . . . . . 3,391,001 3,477,609 3,563,950 3,646,922 3,716,005

Under 25 years . . . . . . . . . .
25 to 29 years . . . . . . . . . . .
30 to 34 years . . . . . . . . . . .
35 to 44 years . . . . . . . . . . .

45 to 54 years . . . . . . . . . . .
55 to 64 years . . . . . . . . . . .
65 to 74 years . . . . . . . . . . .
75 years and over . . . . . . . .

useholder: 1995 to 2010—Con. 24

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

17,549,113 17,801,273 18,048,628 18,301,408 18,561,511 18,828,993 19,119,565 19,405,806 19,702,084

1,156,557 1,182,776 1,201,981 1,215,744 1,231,026 1,244,073 1,261,592 1,286,125 1,308,378
1,013,198 1,029,674 1,057,843 1,091,774 1,128,853 1,162,118 1,194,137 1,216,674 1,234,731

925,489 919,300 906,429 891,669 873,257 875,541 889,124 912,205 940,327
1,908,952 1,894,797 1,883,424 1,874,418 1,866,323 1,846,597 1,821,105 1,795,314 1,779,636

2,377,881 2,445,947 2,514,495 2,583,873 2,650,731 2,708,471 2,756,836 2,795,476 2,818,688
2,441,485 2,560,383 2,677,568 2,794,496 2,912,381 3,033,420 3,128,050 3,247,528 3,376,851
2,980,295 2,970,123 2,974,538 2,985,146 3,010,196 3,066,684 3,178,059 3,268,983 3,342,197
4,745,256 4,798,273 4,832,350 4,864,288 4,888,744 4,892,089 4,890,662 4,883,501 4,901,276

14,989,315 15,253,755 15,516,367 15,784,371 16,058,632 16,336,199 16,627,449 16,920,761 17,228,514

1,450,565 1,483,125 1,505,695 1,522,266 1,540,714 1,556,129 1,576,895 1,607,155 1,635,282
1,607,523 1,629,663 1,670,506 1,719,634 1,774,603 1,823,444 1,870,460 1,901,642 1,925,897
1,681,464 1,670,183 1,646,203 1,619,773 1,586,962 1,590,843 1,616,344 1,658,842 1,709,716
3,485,902 3,482,744 3,482,778 3,483,250 3,484,081 3,462,248 3,430,393 3,395,359 3,379,749

2,530,835 2,610,336 2,689,444 2,769,390 2,846,772 2,913,740 2,971,309 3,015,784 3,041,630
1,817,544 1,931,459 2,045,784 2,162,179 2,282,346 2,405,291 2,511,432 2,638,500 2,778,427
1,208,705 1,220,465 1,237,260 1,255,496 1,281,105 1,320,016 1,384,638 1,437,551 1,483,346
1,206,777 1,225,780 1,238,697 1,252,383 1,262,049 1,264,488 1,265,978 1,265,928 1,274,467

05,189,833 106,259,988 107,324,286 108,425,541 109,542,588 110,675,857 111,833,083 112,991,763 114,199,622

5,240,542 5,345,893 5,415,522 5,464,693 5,520,323 5,564,632 5,627,209 5,723,680 5,813,910
7,151,977 7,210,220 7,350,325 7,527,086 7,725,893 7,896,901 8,057,584 8,151,182 8,215,285
9,535,600 9,391,799 9,182,005 8,962,354 8,711,494 8,667,025 8,737,802 8,901,406 9,109,518
23,418,612 23,073,841 22,762,111 22,467,780 22,182,840 21,762,791 21,283,792 20,803,801 20,450,337

22,089,398 22,558,290 23,018,878 23,478,040 23,904,066 24,239,037 24,481,147 24,624,156 24,615,261
15,160,747 15,860,598 16,543,138 17,220,386 17,901,366 18,586,620 19,111,081 19,782,124 20,519,070
11,505,496 11,541,401 11,629,747 11,735,885 11,905,682 12,200,744 12,721,441 13,148,816 13,508,085
11,087,461 11,277,946 11,422,560 11,569,317 11,690,924 11,758,107 11,813,027 11,856,598 11,968,156

58,553,140 59,134,015 59,720,229 60,331,974 60,948,962 61,574,606 62,183,689 62,800,539 63,441,719

1,616,106 1,647,204 1,665,299 1,678,858 1,694,073 1,704,917 1,720,524 1,747,965 1,775,970
3,523,366 3,550,055 3,617,201 3,702,337 3,798,404 3,880,956 3,958,057 4,002,140 4,032,257
5,526,309 5,438,532 5,312,901 5,182,924 5,035,383 5,007,057 5,045,373 5,137,794 5,255,740
14,493,748 14,272,865 14,072,762 13,882,113 13,696,815 13,428,564 13,123,782 12,819,507 12,594,331

14,128,537 14,425,766 14,717,460 15,008,428 15,277,690 15,489,185 15,639,827 15,727,409 15,716,024
9,408,443 9,840,616 10,262,055 10,680,475 11,101,479 11,523,521 11,845,677 12,259,963 12,717,044
6,070,899 6,096,115
3,785,732 3,862,862 6,148,315 6,208,308 6,303,554 6,465,473 6,747,442 6,977,295 7,171,139
3,924,236 3,988,531 4,041,564 4,074,933 4,103,007 4,128,466 4,179,214











useholder: 1995 to 2010—Con.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

16,737,426 16,907,152 17,069,178 17,233,807 17,403,252 17,579,493 17,780,666 17,973,497 18,172,225

1,078,481 1,098,262 1,111,266 1,118,959 1,127,821 1,134,053 1,144,329 1,160,377 1,173,131
873,167 878,831 894,447 914,637 937,010 955,767 972,818 981,584 986,572
813,352 799,012 778,999 757,422 732,910 727,171 731,655 744,006 760,167

1,710,306 1,678,865 1,650,334 1,624,734 1,600,544 1,566,059 1,527,194 1,488,779 1,459,465

2,110,268 2,148,588 2,186,330 2,223,477 2,256,981 2,281,782 2,297,312 2,303,959 2,296,897
2,301,226 2,401,505 2,499,219 2,595,679 2,692,009 2,790,246 2,862,531 2,957,173 3,059,364
3,032,181 3,026,781 3,036,457 3,052,405 3,083,230 3,146,938 3,268,296 3,368,019 3,448,548
4,818,445 4,875,308 4,912,126 4,946,494 4,972,747 4,977,477 4,976,531 4,969,600 4,988,081

13,956,854 14,117,540 14,273,056 14,431,072 14,592,326 14,755,188 14,933,830 15,109,622 15,295,575

1,403,011 1,431,366 1,449,805 1,462,150 1,475,840 1,485,857 1,500,718 1,524,238 1,544,738
1,476,336 1,489,968 1,519,891 1,556,978 1,599,134 1,635,528 1,669,834 1,689,490 1,702,990
1,511,544 1,489,478 1,456,972 1,422,560 1,382,903 1,376,884 1,390,674 1,418,599 1,453,515
2,991,170 2,949,537 2,911,159 2,874,399 2,839,495 2,786,335 2,726,973 2,666,730 2,623,726

2,406,444 2,465,973 2,524,012 2,581,269 2,634,832 2,678,248 2,712,220 2,733,499 2,737,695
1,584,971 1,664,883 1,743,673 1,822,214 1,901,988 1,981,813 2,046,437 2,126,361 2,214,676
1,219,044 1,230,155 1,246,103 1,263,632 1,288,219 1,326,460 1,389,762 1,441,924 1,487,453
1,364,334 1,396,180 1,421,441 1,447,870 1,469,915 1,484,063 1,497,212 1,508,781 1,530,782

27

28

Table 4. Projected Number of Households by Type, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2010
Series 3

[Reference date is July 1]

Family households Nonfamily households Average
number of
persons—

Year, race, and Other family
Hispanic origin

Per

All Married Female Male Female Male house- Per
households
Total couple householder householder Total householder householder hold family

TOTAL 68,872,603 54,064,426 11,336,429 3,471,748 28,701,586 15,799,625 12,901,961 2.62 3.14
69,674,088 54,674,787 11,463,777 3,535,524 28,967,227 15,914,198 13,053,029 2.62 3.14
1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97,574,189 70,439,696 55,252,827 11,588,373 3,598,496 29,240,334 16,037,537 13,202,797 2.62 3.13
1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98,641,315 71,161,368 55,795,398 11,706,994 3,658,976 29,522,348 16,171,073 13,351,275 2.61 3.13
1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99,680,030 71,885,581 56,338,766 11,827,365 3,719,450 29,797,888 16,300,363 13,497,525 2.61 3.12
1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100,683,716
1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101,683,469 72,637,651 56,904,364 11,952,311 3,780,976 30,096,698 16,443,281 13,653,417 2.61 3.12
73,378,966 57,461,517 12,077,637 3,839,812 30,375,048 16,574,784 13,800,264 2.60 3.11
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102,734,349 74,090,082 58,010,418 12,184,607 3,895,057 30,694,280 16,737,426 13,956,854 2.60 3.11
2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103,754,014 74,789,113 58,543,186 12,295,128 3,950,799 31,024,692 16,907,152 14,117,540 2.60 3.10
2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104,784,362 75,493,071 59,080,407 12,406,575 4,006,089 31,342,234 17,069,178 14,273,056 2.59 3.10
2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105,813,805
2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106,835,305 76,227,200 59,642,441 12,522,567 4,062,192 31,664,879 17,233,807 14,431,072 2.59 3.09
76,967,698 60,209,569 12,638,983 4,119,146 31,995,578 17,403,252 14,592,326 2.58 3.09
2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107,892,079 77,716,383 60,784,900 12,756,689 4,174,794 32,334,681 17,579,493 14,755,188 2.58 3.08
2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108,963,276 78,446,730 61,342,277 12,872,767 4,231,686 32,714,496 17,780,666 14,933,830 2.57 3.07
2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110,051,064 79,187,519 61,906,394 12,993,258 4,287,867 33,083,119 17,973,497 15,109,622 2.57 3.07
2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111,161,226 79,957,976 62,494,303 13,117,622 4,346,051 33,467,800 18,172,225 15,295,575 2.56 3.06
2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112,270,638
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113,425,776

WHITE 83,126,521 58,479,769 48,220,803 7,565,962 2,693,004 24,646,752 13,733,078 10,913,674 2.56 3.07
83,870,268 59,042,942 48,678,983 7,626,463 2,737,496 24,827,326 13,806,829 11,020,497 2.56 3.06
1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84,586,111 59,573,563 49,108,160 7,684,439 2,780,964 25,012,548 13,887,408 11,125,140 2.55 3.06
1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85,270,711 60,064,518 49,505,179 7,737,368 2,821,971 25,206,193 13,977,437 11,228,756 2.55 3.05
1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85,952,036 60,558,865 49,903,203 7,792,563 2,863,099 25,393,171 14,062,807 11,330,364 2.55 3.05
1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86,675,553 61,076,096 50,320,749 7,850,453 2,904,894 25,599,457 14,159,185 11,440,272 2.54 3.04
87,370,922 61,584,148 50,730,510 7,909,191 2,944,447 25,786,774 14,244,386 11,542,388 2.54 3.04
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88,076,002 62,066,424 51,133,853 7,952,171 2,980,400 26,009,578 14,357,115 11,652,463 2.53 3.03
2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88,782,502 62,540,921 51,524,485 7,999,440 3,016,996 26,241,581 14,474,920 11,766,661 2.53 3.02
2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89,479,238 63,020,178 51,919,221 8,047,896 3,053,061 26,459,060 14,583,993 11,875,067 2.52 3.02
2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90,204,246 63,525,190 52,335,592 8,099,845 3,089,753 26,679,056 14,693,713 11,985,343 2.52 3.01
90,941,737 64,035,621 52,756,804 8,151,890 3,126,927 26,906,116 14,807,915 12,098,201 2.51 3.01
2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91,686,940 64,549,166 53,183,680 8,203,138 3,162,348 27,137,774 14,926,884 12,210,890 2.51 3.00
2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92,453,446 65,046,441 53,595,232 8,252,703 3,198,506 27,407,005 15,069,543 12,337,462 2.50 2.99
2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93,211,104 65,548,824 54,010,476 8,304,635 3,233,713 27,662,280 15,202,425 12,459,855 2.50 2.99
2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94,010,462 66,078,448 54,447,373 8,360,230 3,270,845 27,932,014 15,340,100 12,591,914 2.49 2.98
2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

BLACK

1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,152,480 7,844,987 3,866,625 3,377,296 601,066 3,307,493 1,726,806 1,580,687 2.85 3.43
1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,354,230 7,987,265 3,942,263 3,430,891 614,111 3,366,965 1,754,751 1,612,214 2.84 3.42
1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,556,106 8,127,533 4,015,991 3,484,223 627,319 3,428,573 1,784,228 1,644,345 2.83 3.40
1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,752,819 8,262,713 4,086,011 3,536,278 640,424 3,490,106 1,813,872 1,676,234 2.83 3.39
1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,947,894 8,396,721 4,155,791 3,587,600 653,330 3,551,173 1,843,552 1,707,621 2.82 3.39

2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,149,243 8,533,897 4,226,890 3,640,548 666,459 3,615,346 1,875,390 1,739,956 2.81 3.38
2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,346,142 8,668,890 4,297,086 3,692,709 679,095 3,677,252 1,906,471 1,770,781 2.80 3.37
2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,544,860 8,801,250 4,367,069 3,742,600 691,581 3,743,610 1,940,840 1,802,770 2.80 3.36
2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,739,981 8,929,032 4,433,789 3,791,446 703,797 3,810,949 1,976,638 1,834,311 2.79 3.35
2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,936,105 9,056,607 4,500,717 3,839,909 715,981 3,879,498 2,013,307 1,866,191 2.78 3.34

2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,136,816 9,186,541 4,569,036 3,889,260 728,245 3,950,275 2,051,719 1,898,556 2.77 3.34
2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,337,353 9,316,038 4,636,652 3,938,739 740,647 4,021,315 2,090,298 1,931,017 2.77 3.33
2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,546,255 9,450,472 4,706,742 3,990,304 753,426 4,095,783 2,130,864 1,964,919 2.76 3.32
2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,754,037 9,582,154 4,773,951 4,041,802 766,401 4,171,883 2,172,068 1,999,815 2.75 3.31
2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,968,615 9,718,463 4,843,645 4,095,257 779,561 4,250,152 2,214,450 2,035,702 2.74 3.31
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,185,450 9,856,032 4,914,444 4,148,909 792,679 4,329,418 2,257,713 2,071,705 2.74 3.30

29

Table 4. Projected Number of Households by Type, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2010—Con.
Series 3

[Reference date is July 1]

Family households Nonfamily households Average
number of
persons—

Year, race, and Other family
Hispanic origin

Per

All Married Female Male Female Male house- Per
households
Total couple householder householder Total householder householder hold family

AMERICAN INDIAN, 686,847 513,374 332,015 136,800 44,559 173,473 82,582 90,891 3.17 3.65
ESKIMO, AND 700,121 522,746 338,280 138,958 45,508 177,375 84,553 92,822 3.16 3.63
ALEUT 713,397 531,997 344,406 141,130 46,461 181,400 86,608 94,792 3.14 3.62
726,702 541,118 350,355 143,345 47,418 185,584 88,772 96,812 3.13 3.60
1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 740,165 550,353 356,343 145,634 48,376 189,812 90,963 98,849 3.11 3.59
1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 754,180 560,006 362,590 148,044 49,372 194,174 93,202 100,972 3.10 3.57
1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 768,538 569,944 369,012 150,562 50,370 198,594 95,477 103,117 3.08 3.56
1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 782,688 579,597 375,269 152,976 51,352 203,091 97,803 105,288 3.07 3.54
1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 797,248 589,510 381,621 155,529 52,360 207,738 100,220 107,518 3.06 3.53
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 811,919 599,542 388,047 158,108 53,387 212,377 102,614 109,763 3.04 3.51
2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 827,029 609,936 394,757 160,746 54,433 217,093 105,048 112,045 3.03 3.50
2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 842,551 620,635 401,665 163,454 55,516 221,916 107,507 114,409 3.01 3.48
2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 858,157 631,341 408,547 166,195 56,599 226,816 110,026 116,790 3.00 3.47
2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 874,260 642,354 415,567 169,043 57,744 231,906 112,608 119,298 2.99 3.46
2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 890,053 653,238 422,553 171,835 58,850 236,815 115,101 121,714 2.98 3.44
2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 906,036 664,325 429,667 174,682 59,976 241,711 117,559 124,152 2.96 3.43
2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,608,341 2,034,473 1,644,983 256,371 133,119 573,868 257,159 316,709 3.52 3.99
2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,716,696 2,121,135 1,715,261 267,465 138,409 595,561 268,065 327,496 3.52 3.99
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,824,416 2,206,603 1,784,270 278,581 143,752 617,813 279,293 338,520 3.51 3.98
2,933,484 2,293,019 1,853,853 290,003 149,163 640,465 290,992 349,473 3.51 3.98
ASIAN AND PACIFIC 3,043,374 2,379,642 1,923,429 301,568 154,645 663,732 303,041 360,691 3.51 3.98
ISLANDER 2,467,652
3,155,373 2,555,984 1,994,135 313,266 160,251 687,721 315,504 372,217 3.50 3.97
1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,268,412 2,642,811 2,064,909 325,175 165,900 712,428 328,450 383,978 3.50 3.97
1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,380,812 2,729,650 2,134,227 336,860 171,724 738,001 341,668 396,333 3.50 3.97
1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,494,074 2,816,744 2,203,291 348,713 177,646 764,424 355,374 409,050 3.49 3.96
1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,608,043 2,905,533 2,272,422 360,662 183,660 791,299 369,264 422,035 3.49 3.97
1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,995,404
3,723,988 3,085,404 2,343,056 372,716 189,761 818,455 383,327 435,128 3.49 3.96
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,841,635 3,175,781 2,414,448 384,900 196,056 846,231 397,532 448,699 3.49 3.96
2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,959,712 3,266,994 2,485,931 397,052 202,421 874,308 411,719 462,589 3.48 3.96
2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,079,483 3,359,171 2,557,527 409,219 209,035 903,702 426,447 477,255 3.48 3.96
2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,200,866 2,629,720 421,531 215,743 933,872 441,521 492,351 3.48 3.96
2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,323,828 5,884,537 2,702,819 433,801 222,551 964,657 456,853 507,804 3.47 3.96
6,103,298
2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,368,163 6,319,716 4,067,342 1,295,701 521,494 1,483,626 668,109 815,517 3.58 3.93
2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,643,450 6,538,758 4,219,884 1,343,334 540,080 1,540,152 694,478 845,674 3.56 3.91
2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,916,601 6,757,549 4,369,654 1,391,126 558,936 1,596,885 720,803 876,082 3.55 3.90
2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,194,930 6,981,640 4,520,828 1,439,700 578,230 1,656,172 748,793 907,379 3.53 3.88
2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,473,701 7,207,758 4,671,095 1,488,761 597,693 1,716,152 777,252 938,900 3.52 3.87
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,432,166
8,760,637 7,658,881 4,825,118 1,538,882 617,640 1,778,997 807,526 971,471 3.51 3.86
HISPANIC ORIGIN* 9,050,587 7,886,388 4,980,376 1,589,742 637,640 1,842,829 838,632 1,004,197 3.50 3.85
9,340,520 8,120,035 5,134,594 1,639,805 657,767 1,908,354 870,703 1,037,651 3.49 3.84
1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,634,693 8,358,919 5,289,934 1,690,776 678,171 1,975,812 904,060 1,071,752 3.48 3.83
1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,931,171 8,600,147 5,445,459 1,742,097 698,832 2,044,783 938,314 1,106,469 3.47 3.82
1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,846,772
1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,236,089 9,096,665 5,605,445 1,794,674 719,916 2,116,054 973,833 1,142,221 3.46 3.81
1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,549,060 9,355,801 5,769,023 1,848,257 741,639 2,190,141 1,010,810 1,179,331 3.45 3.81
10,864,976 5,933,816 1,902,600 763,731 2,264,829 1,047,875 1,216,954 3.44 3.80
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,191,010 6,102,143 1,957,866 786,763 2,344,238 1,087,580 1,256,658 3.43 3.79
2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,521,966 6,272,227 2,014,177 810,261 2,425,301 1,128,078 1,297,223 3.42 3.78
2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,866,338 6,448,945 2,072,234 834,622 2,510,537 1,170,702 1,339,835 3.41 3.77
2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

* Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. These data do not include households of Puerto Rico.

30

Table 5. Projected Number of Families With Children Under 18 by Type: 1995 to 2010
Series 1, 2, and 3

[Reference date is July 1]

Families with children under 18 Percent of total families

Series and year Other family Other family

Total Married Female Male Married Female Male
families
Total couple householder householder Total couple householder householder

SERIES 1 68,382,680 32,585,420 24,606,935 6,434,580 1,543,905 47.7 36.0 9.4 2.3
69,089,808 32,805,697 24,720,317 6,507,453 1,577,927 47.5 35.8 9.4 2.3
1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69,760,723 32,950,828 24,770,078 6,571,209 1,609,541 47.2 35.5 9.4 2.3
1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70,387,012 33,001,413 24,739,546 6,624,257 1,637,610 46.9 35.1 9.4 2.3
1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71,014,836 33,057,691 24,713,309 6,678,623 1,665,759 46.6 34.8 9.4 2.3
1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71,668,930 33,116,539 24,685,785 6,737,016 1,693,738 46.2 34.4 9.4 2.4
72,310,665 33,174,193 24,655,456 6,798,020 1,720,717 45.9 34.1 9.4 2.4
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72,917,696 33,036,636 24,468,178 6,829,106 1,739,352 45.3 33.6 9.4 2.4
2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73,511,099 32,915,537 24,291,409 6,865,639 1,758,489 44.8 33.0 9.3 2.4
2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74,107,904 32,799,077 24,118,115 6,903,407 1,777,555 44.3 32.5 9.3 2.4
2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74,732,880 32,699,092 23,957,648 6,944,446 1,796,998 43.8 32.1 9.3 2.4
75,361,827 32,589,305 23,788,678 6,984,458 1,816,169 43.2 31.6 9.3 2.4
2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75,997,067 32,477,331 23,615,690 7,027,702 1,833,939 42.7 31.1 9.2 2.4
2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76,615,834 32,360,426 23,434,446 7,074,699 1,851,281 42.2 30.6 9.2 2.4
2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77,241,400 32,258,837 23,263,529 7,126,846 1,868,462 41.8 30.1 9.2 2.4
2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77,894,830 32,203,228 23,126,269 7,189,026 1,887,933 41.3 29.7 9.2 2.4
2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

SERIES 2 68,837,033 32,927,283 25,211,389 6,230,178 1,485,716 47.8 36.6 9.1 2.2
69,642,938 33,215,036 25,457,687 6,251,530 1,505,819 47.7 36.6 9.0 2.2
1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70,413,821 33,427,411 25,640,179 6,263,952 1,523,280 47.5 36.4 8.9 2.2
1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71,140,587 33,543,650 25,740,585 6,265,923 1,537,142 47.2 36.2 8.8 2.2
1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71,870,306 33,665,980 25,845,679 6,269,431 1,550,870 46.8 36.0 8.7 2.2
1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72,627,721 33,791,044 25,949,975 6,276,723 1,564,346 46.5 35.7 8.6 2.2
73,374,380 33,914,629 26,051,210 6,286,640 1,576,779 46.2 35.5 8.6 2.1
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74,089,499 33,837,763 25,988,688 6,267,529 1,581,546 45.7 35.1 8.5 2.1
2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74,792,966 33,777,914 25,936,992 6,254,144 1,586,778 45.2 34.7 8.4 2.1
2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75,501,804 33,721,804 25,888,226 6,241,698 1,591,880 44.7 34.3 8.3 2.1
2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76,240,892 33,681,772 25,852,471 6,232,064 1,597,237 44.2 33.9 8.2 2.1
76,985,707 33,630,584 25,806,783 6,221,428 1,602,373 43.7 33.5 8.1 2.1
2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77,737,669 33,574,875 25,754,831 6,213,487 1,606,557 43.2 33.1 8.0 2.1
2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78,471,219 33,512,846 25,693,251 6,208,869 1,610,726 42.7 32.7 7.9 2.1
2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79,215,583 33,465,097 25,641,146 6,209,161 1,614,790 42.2 32.4 7.8 2.0
2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79,990,044 33,464,735 25,626,700 6,217,435 1,620,600 41.8 32.0 7.8 2.0
2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

SERIES 3 68,872,603 32,951,468 25,093,724 6,344,197 1,513,547 47.8 36.4 9.2 2.2
69,674,088 33,236,382 25,313,240 6,384,484 1,538,658 47.7 36.3 9.2 2.2
1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70,439,696 33,445,527 25,468,265 6,416,020 1,561,242 47.5 36.2 9.1 2.2
1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71,161,368 33,558,706 25,540,609 6,437,837 1,580,260 47.2 35.9 9.0 2.2
1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71,885,581 33,677,917 25,620,110 6,458,864 1,598,943 46.8 35.6 9.0 2.2
1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72,637,651 33,799,808 25,700,222 6,482,367 1,617,219 46.5 35.4 8.9 2.2
73,378,966 33,919,974 25,778,388 6,507,292 1,634,294 46.2 35.1 8.9 2.2
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74,090,082 33,840,544 25,690,835 6,505,705 1,644,004 45.7 34.7 8.8 2.2
2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74,789,113 33,778,119 25,616,315 6,507,907 1,653,897 45.2 34.3 8.7 2.2
2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75,493,071 33,719,761 25,545,963 6,510,237 1,663,561 44.7 33.8 8.6 2.2
2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76,227,200 33,677,764 25,489,522 6,514,839 1,673,403 44.2 33.4 8.5 2.2
76,967,698 33,624,784 25,423,352 6,518,370 1,683,062 43.7 33.0 8.5 2.2
2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77,716,383 33,567,830 25,350,855 6,525,077 1,691,898 43.2 32.6 8.4 2.2
2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78,446,730 33,504,658 25,269,434 6,534,512 1,700,712 42.7 32.2 8.3 2.2
2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79,187,519 33,455,996 25,197,888 6,548,684 1,709,424 42.2 31.8 8.3 2.2
2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79,957,976 33,454,732 25,164,816 6,570,097 1,719,819 41.8 31.5 8.2 2.2
2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .







ex: 1995 to 2010—Con. 32

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

25,964,241 26,280,506 26,587,559 26,902,936 27,225,780 27,557,137 27,924,401 28,278,820 28,653,823

1,264,361 1,290,758 1,308,595 1,321,110 1,335,225 1,346,595 1,362,511 1,386,659 1,409,094
1,600,946 1,615,106 1,647,587 1,688,257 1,733,977 1,773,430 1,810,797 1,833,049 1,848,498
1,788,707 1,764,007 1,726,686 1,687,072 1,641,438 1,634,613 1,649,729 1,682,160 1,723,056
3,825,706 3,774,749 3,728,689 3,685,282 3,643,432 3,579,101 3,505,418 3,430,712 3,376,629

3,816,278 3,900,638 3,983,576 4,066,175 4,143,367 4,204,551 4,250,513 4,278,817 4,281,528
3,546,184 3,711,868 3,873,491 4,033,735 4,194,769 4,357,718 4,483,255 4,642,358 4,815,942
4,080,918 4,088,885 4,115,971 4,150,573 4,206,497 4,306,416 4,485,605 4,633,868 4,758,027
6,041,141 6,134,495 6,202,964 6,270,732 6,327,075 6,354,713 6,376,573 6,391,197 6,441,049

15,053,206 15,231,901 15,404,684 15,582,314 15,765,036 15,954,749 16,168,677 16,373,329 16,587,410

557,858 569,111 576,806 581,991 587,876 592,582 599,320 609,543 618,876
625,407 630,414 642,461 657,811 674,807 689,283 702,798 710,598 715,632
653,576 644,116 630,145 615,089 597,736 594,685 599,274 610,132 624,089
1,444,658 1,422,547 1,402,765 1,384,987 1,368,034 1,342,757 1,313,601 1,284,570 1,262,933

1,860,593 1,896,618 1,932,185 1,967,592 2,000,188 2,025,106 2,042,295 2,051,818 2,049,396
2,179,260 2,276,239 2,370,776 2,464,301 2,557,708 2,652,884 2,724,076 2,815,905 2,914,932
2,980,336 2,978,634 2,991,457 3,010,500 3,044,113 3,109,575 3,230,989 3,331,924 3,414,951
4,751,518 4,814,222 4,858,089 4,900,043 4,934,574 4,947,877 4,956,324 4,958,839 4,986,601

10,911,035 11,048,605 11,182,875 11,320,622 11,460,744 11,602,388 11,755,724 11,905,491 12,066,413

706,503 721,647 731,789 739,119 747,349 754,013 763,191 777,116 790,218
975,539 984,692 1,005,126 1,030,446 1,059,170 1,084,147 1,107,999 1,122,451 1,132,866
1,135,131 1,119,891 1,096,541 1,071,983 1,043,702 1,039,928 1,050,455 1,072,028 1,098,967
2,381,048 2,352,202 2,325,924 2,300,295 2,275,398 2,236,344 2,191,817 2,146,142 2,113,696

1,955,685 2,004,020 2,051,391 2,098,583 2,143,179 2,179,445 2,208,218 2,226,999 2,232,132
1,366,924 1,435,629 1,502,715 1,569,434 1,637,061 1,704,834 1,759,179 1,826,453 1,901,010
1,100,582 1,110,251 1,124,514 1,140,073 1,162,384 1,196,841 1,254,616 1,301,944 1,343,076
1,289,623 1,320,273 1,344,875 1,370,689 1,392,501 1,406,836 1,420,249 1,432,358 1,454,448

Table 6. Projections of the Number of Persons Living Alone by Age and Se
Series 1, 2, and 3

[Reference date is July 1]

Series, sex, and age 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

SERIES 3 23,841,122 24,100,620 24,356,320 24,611,945 24,857,627 25,120,990 25,361,537
1,152,540 1,123,469 1,119,900 1,134,890 1,158,413 1,185,653 1,216,399
Total Living Alone 1,743,036 1,743,841 1,727,859 1,699,570 1,658,875 1,615,976 1,567,189
1,984,981 1,934,023 1,874,825 1,818,117 1,772,659 1,751,811 1,752,688
Total, 15 and over . . . . 3,652,262 3,720,923 3,774,110 3,813,145 3,835,021 3,832,365 3,806,735
3,010,641 3,133,157 3,255,777 3,347,455 3,465,680 3,595,180 3,736,494
Under 25 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,858,480 2,887,686 2,949,177 3,062,853 3,159,722 3,238,348 3,309,416
25 to 29 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,234,383 4,213,974 4,170,952 4,133,708 4,088,581 4,072,007 4,056,972
30 to 34 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,204,799 5,343,547 5,483,720 5,602,207 5,718,676 5,829,650 5,915,644
35 to 44 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

45 to 54 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
55 to 64 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
65 to 74 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
75 years or more . . . . . . . . . . . .

Women Living Alone 13,918,696 14,037,314 14,158,364 14,284,500 14,404,334 14,535,723 14,654,100

Total, 15 and over . . . . . . . 507,608 494,274 492,218 498,412 508,359 519,890 532,892
683,169 682,664 675,243 663,067 646,017 627,820 607,399
Under 25 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . 731,402 710,091 686,407 663,717 645,567 636,658 636,224
25 to 29 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,408,285 1,426,806 1,439,678 1,447,398 1,449,220 1,442,675 1,428,367
30 to 34 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
35 to 44 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,495,774 1,549,207 1,602,860 1,641,287 1,692,683 1,749,163 1,812,347
1,787,285 1,797,992 1,829,074 1,892,814 1,947,015 1,989,597 2,028,495
45 to 54 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,146,015 3,120,423 3,078,349 3,040,302 2,996,407 2,973,369 2,952,964
55 to 64 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,159,158 4,255,857 4,354,535 4,437,503 4,519,066 4,596,551 4,655,412
65 to 74 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
75 years or more . . . . . . . . . . . .

Men Living Alone 9,922,426 10,063,306 10,197,956 10,327,445 10,453,293 10,585,267 10,707,437

Total, 15 and over . . . . 644,932 629,195 627,682 636,478 650,054 665,763 683,507
1,059,867 1,061,177 1,052,616 1,036,503 1,012,858 988,156 959,790
Under 25 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,253,579 1,223,932 1,188,418 1,154,400 1,127,092 1,115,153 1,116,464
25 to 29 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,243,977 2,294,117 2,334,432 2,365,747 2,385,801 2,389,690 2,378,368
30 to 34 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
35 to 44 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,514,867 1,583,950 1,652,917 1,706,168 1,772,997 1,846,017 1,924,147
1,071,195 1,089,694 1,120,103 1,170,039 1,212,707 1,248,751 1,280,921
45 to 54 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,088,368 1,093,551 1,092,603 1,093,406 1,092,174 1,098,638 1,104,008
55 to 64 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,045,641 1,087,690 1,129,185 1,164,704 1,199,610 1,233,099 1,260,232
65 to 74 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
75 years or more . . . . . . . . . . . .

ex: 1995 to 2010—Con.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

25,643,996 25,930,246 26,206,149 26,489,147 26,778,130 27,075,550 27,407,524 27,725,678 28,062,318

1,240,252 1,264,561 1,280,113 1,290,227 1,301,519 1,309,339 1,321,310 1,340,885 1,357,878
1,557,420 1,570,146 1,600,276 1,638,197 1,680,902 1,717,385 1,751,341 1,770,103 1,782,277
1,737,438 1,710,166 1,670,851 1,628,929 1,580,891 1,572,038 1,585,616 1,615,645 1,653,748
3,755,926 3,697,378 3,643,780 3,593,857 3,546,553 3,476,444 3,397,862 3,318,958 3,261,078

3,792,965 3,874,734 3,954,788 4,033,689 4,106,416 4,163,320 4,204,477 4,227,582 4,224,867
3,519,477 3,682,211 3,841,581 3,999,563 4,158,489 4,319,240 4,442,610 4,600,088 4,771,868
4,043,185 4,048,079 4,071,960 4,103,348 4,155,555 4,252,003 4,427,038 4,571,002 4,690,358
5,997,333 6,082,971 6,142,800 6,201,337 6,247,805 6,265,781 6,277,270 6,281,415 6,320,244

14,804,932 14,959,363 15,107,104 15,258,654 15,414,308 15,577,033 15,762,683 15,938,606 16,122,429

542,733 552,834 559,283 563,206 567,668 570,629 575,463 583,433 590,073
602,417 606,325 617,099 631,029 646,464 659,405 671,169 677,217 680,658
629,244 618,150 602,667 585,974 567,011 562,571 566,039 575,595 588,098
1,404,609 1,378,788 1,355,357 1,334,332 1,314,466 1,286,144 1,254,226 1,222,677 1,198,603

1,832,991 1,866,275 1,899,058 1,931,325 1,960,426 1,981,969 1,995,458 2,001,231 1,995,098
2,150,216 2,243,914 2,335,217 2,425,347 2,515,355 2,607,146 2,674,687 2,763,118 2,858,603
2,933,174 2,927,951 2,937,311 2,952,738 2,982,556 3,044,184 3,161,579 3,258,047 3,335,946
4,709,548 4,765,126 4,801,112 4,834,703 4,860,362 4,864,985 4,864,062 4,857,288 4,875,350

10,839,064 10,970,883 11,099,045 11,230,493 11,363,822 11,498,517 11,644,841 11,787,072 11,939,889

697,519 711,727 720,830 727,021 733,851 738,710 745,847 757,452 767,805
955,003 963,821 983,177 1,007,168 1,034,438 1,057,980 1,080,172 1,092,886 1,101,619
1,108,194 1,092,016 1,068,184 1,042,955 1,013,880 1,009,467 1,019,577 1,040,050 1,065,650
2,351,317 2,318,590 2,288,423 2,259,525 2,232,087 2,190,300 2,143,636 2,096,281 2,062,475

1,959,974 2,008,459 2,055,730 2,102,364 2,145,990 2,181,351 2,209,019 2,226,351 2,229,769
1,369,261 1,438,297 1,506,364 1,574,216 1,643,134 1,712,094 1,767,923 1,836,970 1,913,265
1,110,011 1,120,128 1,134,649 1,150,610 1,172,999 1,207,819 1,265,459 1,312,955 1,354,412
1,287,785 1,317,845 1,341,688 1,366,634 1,387,443 1,400,796 1,413,208 1,424,127 1,444,894

33

Table 7. Projections of the Marital Status of the Population by Age and Sex
Series 1, 2, and 3

[Reference date July 1]

Year and age Total Ever married
Total
Total Never Married, Other Total Never
married spouse married
205,098,952 present
11,020,629 24,088,227
SERIES 1 24,926,435 53,131,688 151,967,264 107,352,337 44,614,927 106,337,008 5,218,321
18,981,215 8,882,562
1995 21,881,418 10,822,653 197,976 63,221 134,755 5,354,720 3,123,760
Total, 15 years and 42,514,345 19,507,204 5,419,231 3,811,564 1,607,667 12,250,096 2,114,160
over . . . . . . . . . . . . 31,092,478 11,351,136 8,553,762 2,797,374 2,268,709
21,138,994 7,630,079 16,753,492 12,985,805 3,767,687 9,465,156 903,574
15 to 17 years . . . . . . . . 18,758,154 5,127,926 10,973,325 512,907
18 to 24 years . . . . . . . . 14,785,284 37,240,363 28,230,340 9,010,023 473,521
25 to 29 years . . . . . . . . 5,273,982 29,148,799 21,960,613 7,188,186 21,429,636 590,713
30 to 34 years . . . . . . . . 215,670,503 1,943,679 20,049,328 14,705,728 5,343,600 15,905,292
11,818,315 1,089,666 17,876,728 11,610,399 6,266,329 11,093,251 25,557,509
35 to 44 years . . . . . . . . 26,258,426 13,930,211 8,499,306 10,421,331 5,602,601
45 to 54 years . . . . . . . . 17,722,068 881,426 5,430,905 9,595,045
55 to 64 years . . . . . . . . 19,511,370 855,073 9,444,201 3,067,858
65 to 74 years . . . . . . . . 44,659,185 2,023,167
75 years and over . . . . . 37,030,152 56,069,989 159,600,514 111,472,009 48,128,505 111,671,904 2,524,991
23,961,506 1,092,082
2,000 18,135,515 11,610,788 207,527 64,083 143,444 5,744,701 580,082
Total, 15 years and 16,573,966 20,917,426 5,341,000 3,750,282 1,590,718 12,920,157 430,038
over . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,314,488 7,684,040 2,630,448 641,645
226,706,877 7,407,580 14,631,415 11,282,554 3,348,861 8,880,011
15 to 17 years . . . . . . . . 12,689,633 4,879,955 9,818,577 27,315,845
18 to 24 years . . . . . . . . 28,267,513 38,773,563 28,929,870 9,843,693 6,017,601
25 to 29 years . . . . . . . . 18,057,127 5,885,622 34,683,913 25,735,790 8,948,123 22,478,094
30 to 34 years . . . . . . . . 18,248,639 2,346,239 22,707,163 16,424,172 6,282,991 18,937,928 10,443,947
42,164,942 1,254,343 17,310,730 11,308,655 6,002,075 12,528,544 3,264,629
35 to 44 years . . . . . . . . 41,506,738 15,630,715 9,338,152 2,024,971
45 to 54 years . . . . . . . . 29,605,827 824,785 6,292,563 9,955,640 2,529,312
55 to 64 years . . . . . . . . 18,368,953 943,251 10,408,252 1,241,144
65 to 74 years . . . . . . . . 17,797,505 715,863
75 years and over . . . . . 59,750,257 166,956,620 115,211,349 51,745,271 117,261,849 408,889
237,984,498 669,489
2005 12,778,283 12,470,389 219,244 65,505 153,739 6,166,795
Total, 15 years and 30,137,808 22,693,827 5,573,686 3,915,596 1,658,090 13,908,671 28,963,885
over . . . . . . . . . . . . 19,709,738 10,237,060 7,530,725 2,706,335 6,059,864
18,581,788 7,820,067 13,408,827 10,283,203 3,125,624 9,062,163
15 to 17 years . . . . . . . . 38,520,533 4,839,812 9,229,176 11,279,474
18 to 24 years . . . . . . . . 43,564,467 36,284,662 26,600,365 9,684,297 3,699,253
25 to 29 years . . . . . . . . 35,283,416 5,880,280 38,841,008 28,353,031 10,487,977 21,273,459 2,188,581
30 to 34 years . . . . . . . . 21,057,471 2,665,730 28,031,971 19,961,372 21,202,723 2,450,253
18,350,994 1,573,856 17,559,843 11,535,107 8,070,599 15,439,576 1,321,354
35 to 44 years . . . . . . . . 16,800,319 6,024,736 852,533
45 to 54 years . . . . . . . . 809,110 6,966,445 9,833,874 9,960,562 440,944
55 to 64 years . . . . . . . . 997,186 11,018,724 671,629
65 to 74 years . . . . . . . .
75 years and over . . . . . 63,307,118 174,677,380 119,079,555 55,597,825 122,983,496

2010 12,560,098 218,185 63,148 155,037 6,207,549
Total, 15 years and 24,429,445 5,708,363 4,003,464 1,704,899 14,824,322
over . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,899,090 7,908,505 2,990,585
8,810,648 13,386,863 10,206,588 3,180,275 9,887,237
15 to 17 years . . . . . . . . 5,194,925 9,413,975
18 to 24 years . . . . . . . . 32,860,148 23,627,517 9,232,631
25 to 29 years . . . . . . . . 5,660,385 40,728,799 29,211,791 11,517,008 19,527,354
30 to 34 years . . . . . . . . 2,835,668 33,378,671 23,359,540 10,019,131 22,239,624
1,904,745 20,158,727 13,304,652 18,361,772
35 to 44 years . . . . . . . . 17,338,534 6,854,075 11,305,273
45 to 54 years . . . . . . . . 898,744 7,394,350 9,944,184 11,216,390
55 to 64 years . . . . . . . . 1,012,460
65 to 74 years . . . . . . . .
75 years and over . . . . .







Table 7. Projections of the Marital Status of the Population by Age and Sex
Series 1, 2, and 3

[Reference date July 1]

Year and age Total Ever married
Total
Total Never Married, Other Total Never
married spouse married
205,098,949 present
11,020,627 23,589,104
SERIES 3 24,926,433 51,993,271 153,105,678 108,481,141 44,624,537 106,337,008 5,213,247
18,981,211 8,707,039
1995 21,881,423 10,814,909 205,718 68,855 136,863 5,354,721 3,019,083
Total, 15 years and 42,514,342 19,249,672 5,676,761 3,972,355 1,704,406 12,250,094 1,993,586
over . . . . . . . . . . . . 31,092,476 11,608,432 8,862,259 2,746,173 2,158,347
21,138,999 7,372,779 17,047,451 13,188,635 3,858,816 9,465,152 886,461
15 to 17 years . . . . . . . . 18,758,155 4,833,972 10,973,326 511,394
18 to 24 years . . . . . . . . 14,785,283 37,546,672 28,637,244 8,909,428 505,765
25 to 29 years . . . . . . . . 4,967,670 29,182,902 22,212,172 6,970,730 21,429,634 594,182
30 to 34 years . . . . . . . . 215,670,513 1,909,574 20,066,148 14,831,298 5,234,850 15,905,292
11,818,315 1,072,851 17,840,620 11,465,872 6,374,748 11,093,257 24,577,625
35 to 44 years . . . . . . . . 26,258,427 13,930,974 8,688,523 10,421,330 5,590,911
45 to 54 years . . . . . . . . 17,722,069 917,535 5,242,451 9,249,258
55 to 64 years . . . . . . . . 19,511,371 854,309 9,444,202 2,854,804
65 to 74 years . . . . . . . . 44,659,190 1,800,476
75 years and over . . . . . 37,030,151 53,886,216 161,784,297 114,153,865 47,630,432 111,671,907 2,287,971
23,961,507 1,071,879
2,000 18,135,516 11,595,136 223,179 74,752 148,427 5,744,700 580,215
Total, 15 years and 16,573,967 20,393,462 5,864,965 4,089,857 1,775,108 12,920,157 487,599
over . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,801,557 8,225,303 2,576,254 654,512
226,706,883 6,920,512 15,169,525 11,695,942 3,473,583 8,880,013
15 to 17 years . . . . . . . . 12,689,635 4,341,846 9,818,575 25,850,519
18 to 24 years . . . . . . . . 28,267,514 39,395,166 29,962,104 9,433,062 5,998,985
25 to 29 years . . . . . . . . 18,057,123 5,264,024 34,728,103 26,350,095 8,378,008 22,478,098 9,909,154
30 to 34 years . . . . . . . . 18,248,640 2,302,048 22,741,964 16,787,536 5,954,428 18,937,927 2,920,594
42,164,938 1,219,543 17,241,122 11,038,014 6,203,108 12,528,548 1,710,769
35 to 44 years . . . . . . . . 41,506,734 15,618,716 9,688,454 2,188,489
45 to 54 years . . . . . . . . 29,605,835 894,394 5,930,262 9,955,639 1,220,324
55 to 64 years . . . . . . . . 18,368,953 955,251 10,408,250 718,031
65 to 74 years . . . . . . . . 17,797,511 491,675
75 years and over . . . . . 56,552,613 170,154,270 119,617,261 50,537,009 117,261,854 692,498
237,984,486
2005 12,778,282 12,446,005 243,630 80,860 162,770 6,166,797 27,004,901
Total, 15 years and 30,137,812 21,877,935 6,389,579 4,452,448 1,937,131 13,908,670 6,034,528
over . . . . . . . . . . . . 19,709,737 10,994,508 8,361,102 2,633,406
18,581,786 7,062,615 14,156,907 10,888,009 3,268,898 9,062,162 10,576,226
15 to 17 years . . . . . . . . 38,520,529 4,091,733 9,229,176 3,182,300
18 to 24 years . . . . . . . . 43,564,464 37,153,929 28,172,232 8,981,697 1,752,255
25 to 29 years . . . . . . . . 35,283,411 5,011,009 38,891,077 29,403,064 9,488,013 21,273,459 2,033,071
30 to 34 years . . . . . . . . 21,057,471 2,615,657 28,094,297 20,711,070 7,383,227 21,202,719 1,298,239
18,350,994 1,511,538 17,457,135 11,145,307 6,311,828 15,439,582 864,004
35 to 44 years . . . . . . . . 16,773,208 10,370,039 559,782
45 to 54 years . . . . . . . . 911,818 6,403,169 9,960,563 704,496
55 to 64 years . . . . . . . . 1,024,303 11,018,726
65 to 74 years . . . . . . . .
75 years and over . . . . . 59,083,416 178,901,070 125,318,037 53,583,033 122,983,486

2010 12,527,529 250,753 82,673 168,080 6,207,550
Total, 15 years and 23,350,671 6,787,141 4,704,473 2,082,668 14,824,324
over . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,999,292 9,119,289 2,880,003
7,710,445 14,403,807 11,064,018 3,339,789 9,887,236
15 to 17 years . . . . . . . . 4,177,979 9,413,974
18 to 24 years . . . . . . . . 33,901,992 25,631,780 8,270,212
25 to 29 years . . . . . . . . 4,618,537 40,787,916 30,739,546 10,048,370 19,527,350
30 to 34 years . . . . . . . . 2,776,548 33,464,429 24,575,308 22,239,622
1,818,982 20,010,026 12,776,345 8,889,121 18,361,769
35 to 44 years . . . . . . . . 1,047,445 17,295,714 7,233,681 11,305,273
45 to 54 years . . . . . . . . 1,055,280 6,624,605 10,671,109 11,216,388
55 to 64 years . . . . . . . .
65 to 74 years . . . . . . . .
75 years and over . . . . .