NewsHawks 25 February 2022

WHAT’S INSIDE Friday 25 February 2022 BZUCSTIUNEwSiSll Price
lobby for US
BNrEuWssSels dollar salaries: US$1
summit: Taruvinga
EU snubs FSPifOa RacTcused of
Mnangagwa Story on Page 20 ‘hypocritical
principles’
Story on Page 6 in Zim ban

Story on Page 64

Ziscosteel new
deal entangled
in Kuvimba’s
shady model

ALSO INSIDE Govt threatens to halt road deal with Wadyajena

Page 2 News NewsHawks

Ziscosteel new Issue 69, 25 February 2022
deal entangled
in Kuvimba’s
shady model

OWEN GAGARE The dispute, which has been raging on since Businessman Kuda Tagwirei
2019, is now under arbitration which gets un-
ZIMBABWE’S cabinet decision this week to se- derway next week. The arbitration arises out of a take over Zisco’s critical coke ovens and an array of complex corporate structures to build and hide
lect Kuvimba Mining House — a public-private tender award dispute between NJZ and Buchwa, other assets from the integrated steelworks, whose his wealth, potentially benefiting from preferential
partnership, whose shareholders have not been which, acting through its agent assets have been stripped. government treatment along the way,” the report
fully revealed — as the investment partner for said.
the Redcliff-based Ziscosteel resuscitation has left MMCZ, neglected or failed to honour its obli- Zisco’s non-core assets were sold to influential
a major public asset in the hands of a relatively gations after the Chinese company performed its politicians and their cronies at giveaway prices. “Tagwirei has invested in gold, nickel, plati-
shadowy entity with murky ownership. duties. As a result, NJZ says it suffered extensive But Zisco’s Kuvimba deal has raised a stink in the num, and chrome mines by hiding behind South
losses and damages amounting to US$36.8 mil- public domain. African businesspeople and offshore structures in
This comes amid revelations political and lion. Mauritius and the Cayman Islands and by using
corporate vultures around President Emmerson “If Kuvimba is a public enterprise, Zimba- lawyers and financiers who are seemingly happy
Mnangagwa are jostling to buy Zisco or its fines Buchwa operated an iron ore mine, Ripple bweans have a right to know how the company to turn a blind eye to accusations of cronyism and
for a song. Creek, and the limestone quarry situated next to is structured, organised and controlled. Repeated corruption.
the steel works. These operations supplied Zisco questions from the media and other stakeholders
While Zisco is defunct and debt-ridden, it has with iron ore in the form of lump ore and fines, on its ownership have not been satisfactorily an- “New documents uncovered by The Sentry
iron ore fines worth at least US$500 million, ac- as well as the limestone required as flux for the swered,” another business executive said. also show how Tagwirei has used similar networks
cording to a key mining source. This is equivalent furnace in iron and steel-making processes. to hide his financial interests in Zimbabwe’s new
to its total debt. Records for Kuvimba are not available in Zim- public-private partnership mining company, Ku-
At its peak, Zisco produced one million tonnes babwe’s company registry. vimba Mining House, with Zimbabwe’s Finance
Fines come from natural raw iron ore through of steel annually and employed up to 8 000 peo- ministry reportedly collaborating to deflect public
the process of mining, crushing and screening, ple. It was part of the backbone of Zimbabwe’s However, according to United States-based civil scrutiny from these arrangements.”
where the ore is separated into lumps and fines. economy, working in an integrated way with society organisation The Sentry’s investigative re-
Iron ore is processed like this for the iron and Hwange Colliery and the National Railways of port titled Shadows and Shell Games: Uncovering The corporate executive strongly questioning
steel-making industry. Zimbabwe. an Offshore Business Empire in Zimbabwe, Ziwa the new Kuvimba-Zisco deal said:
was registered by lawyers at Tagwirei’s law firm,
Although the government claims it owns 65% However, Zisco was destroyed through extend- linking the tycoon to the mining house. “Against this murky background and dodgy ar-
of Kuvimba, it has failed to openly declare who ed periods of mismanagement, corruption and rangements, how does cabinet appoint Kuvimba’s
owns the other 35% and lay to rest fears of dodgy looting. The directors of Ziwa included Brown and as Zisco investment partner? After all, even when
deals and corruption. Simbarashe Chinyemba, both of whom have pre- they say Kuvimba has now paid dividends to
In 2005, for instance, a scandal exploded at viously appeared in companies associated with shareholders, it has not fully paid for Mazowe and
Finance minister Mthuli Ncube and Kuvimba’s Zisco showing the company had been looted by Tagwirei. Brown has since resigned as Kuvimba Redwing gold mines owned by Metallon Corpo-
former chief executive David Brown have claimed ministers, politicians and top management. chief executive. ration. Why doesn’t it pay for the gold mines first
the government owns 65% of Kuvimba’s shares, before rushing to Zisco, which is a much bigger
while the remaining 35% equity is held by Ziwa Previous efforts to resuscitate what was once “By analysing hundreds of company docu- entity? There is something rotten about this deal.”
Investments, a Zimbabwean subsidiary of the sub-Saharan Africa’s largest integrated steel-pro- ments, court filings, and communications, The
Mauritius-registered Quorus Management Ser- ducer have stalled and suffered stillbirths, includ- Sentry’s investigation shows how Tagwirei used
vices. ing Essar Holdings’ US$750 million investment
proposal in 2015. The Indian investor had com-
Kuvimba’s labyrinth of shadowy structures mitted to take over Zisco’s debts to various credi-
and web of intricate offshore entities — notably tors, which stood at US$500 million, but the deal
its relationships with Sotic International, Almas collapsed amid divisions in the government over
Global Opportunity Fund, formerly used by local it.
tycoon Kudakwashe Tagwirei to invest in Sotic via
the Cayman Islands, and Quorus — has not been Later, the authorities’ decision to transfer the
publicly explained. US$225 million assets to ZimCoke for a song
sparked a fierce board dispute. ZimCoke paid
Almas owns 65% of Ziwa Resources. The oth- ZW$1 million in May 2019 as a transaction fee to
er 35% is owned by Zimbabwe-registered Pfimbi
Resources, whose directors are Tagwirei and his A key mining source claims Zisco has iron ore fines worth at least US$500 million.
wife.

Although Kuvimba and the government deny
Tagwirei’s involvement, if Kuvimba is owned 65%
by the government and 35% by Ziwa, then it
means he is involved.

“The decision to appoint Kuvimba as Zisco’s
investment partner is shadowy and strange,” a cor-
porate executive told The NewsHawks.

“Government says it owns Kuvimba 65%, the
other 35% is controlled by unnamed shareholders
and yet it also owns Zisco 100%. So what sort of
a model have they come up with here by giving
Zisco to Kuvimba? In other words, how does gov-
ernment revive Zisco, which it destroyed to start
with, by merely putting it under another public
enterprise? In the first place, we don’t fully know
who actually owns Kuvimba. Who is Ziwa? Who
is Pfimbi? What’s their relationship? How does
Zisco come in on this new deal? Who benefits out
of this? This has not been sufficiently explained
to the public. The answers given by authorities
have at best been deliberately vague; at worst they
amount to obfuscation.”

To further complicate issues, Zisco is entangled
in a US$36.8 million dispute involving Hong
Kong-based NJZ Resources (HK) Ltd, its subsidi-
ary Buchwa Iron Ore Mining Company (Pvt) Ltd
and the Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zim-
babwe (MMCZ).

NewsHawks News Page 3

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

Shambolic records fuel dirty land deals

MOSES MATENGA

A POORLY managed commercial and resi-
dential land database at the City of Harare has
left the capital acutely vulnerable to systematic
fraud that is benefiting corrupt council offi-
cials, investigations have revealed.

Investigations by The NewsHawks in collabo-
ration with Information for

Development Trust (IDT) — a non-profit
organisation supporting local and regional in-
vestigative journalis — established that officials
from the housing, estates and valuation, as well
as city planning departments were cashing in
on the shambolic land bank. This investigation
was produced in partnership with Fojo Me-
dia Institute and International Media Support
(IMS).

The investigations involved verbal accounts
by Town House officials, audit records, coun-
cil minutes, as well as undercover observations
and interviews.

Blank cheque parking space in downtown Harare and she set up to audit the land bank. a tender in terms of section 152 of the Urban
The land bank is supposed to regularly up- came in the company of a male colleague. The committee quizzed several senior coun- Councils Act (Chapter 29:15).
date data relating to the management of city
plots and how much is available, under use and Rowan Martin cil employees, among them the finance director, “We observed that this process has been rel-
the manner it is being utilised. She asked for US$150 to help the reporter Stanley Ndemera, the estates and valuations egated and is not followed by council officials,”
But, it was discovered, the municipality has jump the queue on the residential waiting list manager, Emmanuel Mutambirwa, his deputy revealed the special committee report.
failed to maintain proper land bank records for by providing the necessary paperwork, and the Peter Dube and officials from the chamber sec-
a long time, making it easy for corrupt employ- journalist promised to return with the money. retary’s office. No show
ees and councillors to receive bribes and allo- “We will bring authentic receipts and the pa- The estates and planning teams could not
cate plots without following laid down proce- pers to you. Don’t worry, we will sort it out,” Ndemera, Mutambirwa, the housing direc- produce a list of properties that had been sold
dures. the woman, whose identity is being withheld tor, Addmore Nhekairo and two other officers by council, a development the committee de-
Relevant departments were not submitting for now to protect our sources, said casually. in the estates division were subsequently sus- scribed as “incredible and unacceptable”.
critical information relating to how commer- During the short period spent with the fe- pended and have pending cases at the courts for “The special committee was informed that
cial land was being sold, it emerged. male council employee, she attended to more alleged abuse of office by parcelling out stands non-council employees and cartels have tak-
Council officials and councillors work in ca- than 10 other visitors in clearly hush-hush meant for recreational purposes to private par- en over the council processes and can be seen
hoots with land barons to identify idle spaces fashion. ties. moving from one office to another processing
that have not been updated in official records. Several people interviewed confirmed they the lease and sale of council land,” noted the
The barons then advertise the pieces of land were seeking the female employee’s help and The special committee noted in its report committee.
through backyard agencies, targeting commer- walking away with what seemed like authentic that the officials it quizzed confirmed the exis- The committee bemoaned the shambolic
cial investors and desperate home seekers. documents. tence of land cartels. state of the estates department.
The councillors and municipal employees “That is why you see even in areas where
use fraudulent means to generate paperwork demolitions end up happening, victims will “There is a high risk of fraud considering that Part of the committee report screenshot
necessary for the sale of the land and get kick- be having papers from the council with stamps all people who testified before the committee It also suggested that the internal audit team
backs for the jobs. Now and then, beneficiaries and everything. This is the work of these car- noted that there were cartels operating, espe- must institute a probe regarding how the land
of the improper land sales fall victim to scam- tels,” said a tout who was helping home-seekers. cially in the estates and valuations departments. bank was being managed.
ming. Several car sales and businesses across the
Millions lost “The audit manager noted that this risk had city had not followed procedure in the manner
Conned Acting Harare mayor Stewart Mutizwa ac- been identified, but nothing had been done,” they acquired land. The illegal allocations of
One such victim, who refused to be named knowledged that the council had lost millions the report reads. car sale space by Harare City Council officials
as he was still pursuing official channels to ex- through the fraudulent land allocations. came to light after demolitions by the same lo-
pose the scammers and recover his money, lost “Our land bank is in shambles. We do have Two years on, the special committee is liv- cal authority that led to the car dealers exposing
US$15 000. it, but it is not in order. In terms of monetary id that its recommendations to clean up the illicit deals.
He said he went looking for a commercial loss, we have lost billions of (local currency),” land bank and take corrective action against The car dealers claimed that council officials
plot at Rowan Martin building, where the Mutizwa said. irregular land sales have been ignored by the were demanding US$3 000 bribes.
council employee who attended him informed He accused cartels of manipulating the land MDC-T-dominated council. Car sales have controversially been set up
him that there was no land available for pur- records to their own advantage. Mutizwa sus- along Josiah Tongogara, Emmerson Mnangag-
chase. pects that most of the land fraud is happening “The findings that the committee received wa (formerly Enterprise) and Glenara roads,
He left his phone number with the official within the works and planning divisions. point to the fact that the Director of Housing`s among other places.
who promised to update him and, later, re- The head of planning at the City of Harare, office might be captured by a group of cartels. Suspended Harare mayor Jacob Mafume said
ceived a call during which the council employ- Priscilla Charumbira, who is wife to Fortune This was corroborated by one of the directors,” cartels have taken over the processing of land in
ee supplied him with contact details of a land Charumbira, the Chiefs’ Council president, the report noted. Harare, with beneficiaries mainly being those
baron. was last year arrested for allegedly changing with “ready cash.”
The land baron further referred him to a land use plans for several open spaces in the “After extensive enquiries, we established “People who are getting the prime commer-
councillor, who then led him to another coun- capital irregularly. that the city does not have a credible land bank. cial land are in two groups — the Chinese and
cil worker. An August 2019 audit by a special coun- The evaluations team dithered on the question those who operate on the black market.
He was taken to an open stand, the “paper- cil committee notes “criminal” negligence in of storage of the land bank. A tattered old book “Land is overpriced systematically such that
work” was done and he parted with the mon- the management of the City of Harare land was presented to the committee as . . . city’s those without money cannot afford it and only
ey, but later discovered that the documents he bank, implicating relevant offices of facilitating land bank,” it continued. those involved in black market and other deals
signed for the plot he had been sold just outside murky land sales. benefit and keep the land,” Mafume said.
the city were fake. The seven-member ad hoc committee led by Commercial land acquisitions principally in- — This investigation was produced in
The NewsHawks went underground to find Charles Nyatsuro, one of the councillors, was volve the planning, surveying and estates divi- partnership with the Fojo Media Institute
out how the fraudsters operate. This reporter sions. The planning department issues sub-divi- and International Media Support.
first called a former councillor inquiring after sional plans, stand numbers and town planning
a commercial plot. He was initially hesitant be- permits while the estates and valuation division
cause he knows this reporter, but later agreed instructs the surveying department to assess
to supply the mobile number of another former and map the land.
councillor who had been recalled by MDC-T
for aligning with a rival party led by Nelson The tender formulation and adjudication
Chamisa. committee comprising all municipal depart-
This second councillor, in a recorded phone ment representatives approves proposals for
call, led this reporter to a female council em- lease and sale of land, including the issuance of
ployee who readily agreed to a meeting.
“Get this number and talk to that person
(the lady). Tell her I referred you, but know
that this is not for free. You will have to pay
between about US$70 and US$80 if you are
serious,” the former councillor said.
The female employee directed that the meet-
ing take place in the Rowan Martin Building

Page 4 News NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

Credit Suisse banked, financed Zim
fraudster in deal that saved Mugabe

DETAILS from the Suisse Secrets leak cast new er well. They both owned a large share of the bought out Rautenbach’s company for US$5 only four days after the US$100 million arrived
light on Credit Suisse’s role in a controversial same company: Central African Mining and million and 215 million Camec shares. Camec with the regime. With the opposition decimated
platinum mine sale that helped finance a wave Exploration Company (Camec). By mid-2007 provided its new company with $100 million to by violence, Mugabe went uncontested into the
of violence around Zimbabwe’s 2008 election. the bank owned six percent of Camec through enable it “to comply with its contractual obli- next round.
The bank helped provide funds for the mine its London-based investment subsidiary, Credit gations” to Mugabe’s government, according to
purchase, which eventually earned over US$100 Suisse Securities Ltd. Camec’s stock market filings. But the money “That money totally brought about all the
million for the Mugabe crony who set up the does not appear to have been used for meeting heartache, pain, gerrymandering, violence, in-
deal. Credit Suisse touted Rautenbach as a key as- any obligation, or doing any mining. timidation, repression that took place at the
set in the region. Its mining analysts promoted 2008 election,” said Roy Bennett, a former an-
Key findings: Camec in the press and in briefing notes, telling Instead, the company was widely reported to ti-Mugabe politician, on a Zimbabwean radio
l Credit Suisse opened two accounts for Billy investors the company was a “new major in the have transferred the funds to Mugabe’s Zanu PF show in 2012. “[The election violence] is direct-
Rautenbach, a notorious mining magnate who making,” and a possible rival to mining behe- political party. ly linked to that US$100 million.”
was later sanctioned for his role in Zimbabwe’s moth Xstrata.
2008 election; With a flurry of activity, the entire process Three days after the platinum deal closed, and
l The accounts were opened weeks before a Credit Suisse also gave Camec, which was list- was completed in less than three weeks. Camec as Zimbabwe descended into violence, a Credit
mining deal funneled US$100 million to Robert ed on London’s Alternative Investment Market had its mining rights, the Mugabe regime had
Mugabe’s government, which reportedly funded index, a US$60 million line of credit, which the US$100 million, and Rautenbach had pocketed Suisse research paper lauded Camec as one of
violence that helped him win the election; and company fully used. a substantial sum. its “African 20” stock picks.
l The sanctioned Rautenbach was able to sell
his shares from the deal for a huge profit, but On 4 March 2008, a chain of events began A former executive at the mining company There is no evidence that Credit Suisse knew
the mine was left undeveloped for over a decade. that would quickly get the Mugabe administra- that had to give up the platinum rights, speak- about the planned corruption but it should have
tion the money it needed for its re-election cam- ing anonymously due to the risks posed by com- seen that the deal was suspicious. A classified US
IN 2008, Zimbabwe was at a turning point. paign while also earning Rautenbach a sizable menting, said it was obvious they had to comply. State Department cable, sent 23 May 2008, and
President Robert Mugabe faced electoral defeat profit. It started when Rautenbach opened two later released by Wikileaks, described the sale as
by pro-democracy challengers for the first time accounts with Credit Suisse, according to leaked “There was no doubt our presence [in Zimba- a “swiftly concluded and murky deal.”
in two decades. Suddenly, his cash-starved re- bank records that are part of the Suisse Secrets bwe] was under threat had we not agreed to the
gime received a surprise US$100 million, which investigation, coordinated by OCCRP and surrender of land,” he said, adding that Rauten- Mining Controversy
it allegedly funneled into a violent campaign based on a huge trove of banking data leaked to bach and Camec “relied solely on . . . political Rautenbach was already a controversial figure
that enforced the status quo, and kept Zimba- Süddeutsche Zeitung. connections.” when Credit Suisse opened his accounts in early
bwe on the road to an economic disaster from March 2008, having fled fraud charges in South
which it is yet to recover. Then, two weeks later, the Zimbabwean gov- Documents from a UK government corrup- Africa and been deported from the Democratic
ernment strong armed mining company Anglo tion investigation looking at mining deals in Republic of Congo (DRC) for mining-related
Now, leaked data from Swiss banking giant American into handing over a tranche of land central Africa, obtained by OCCRP, showed corruption. A 2006 UN report questioned Ra-
Credit Suisse has shed new light on the role the that included the rights for mining platinum Camec may have acquired “tainted assets from utenbach’s integrity and criticised inadequate
bank played in the deal that saved Mugabe from there. The government immediately transferred those who engage in corruption.” due diligence on his DRC mining deals.
potential defeat, and blocked an opportunity for those rights to Rautenbach’s offshore company Rautenbach’s accounts at Credit Suisse were
political and economic reform. and a state mining company. The US$100 million arrived within weeks of open for several months after both the US and
Mugabe losing the first round of elections to op- EU sanctioned him for his role in subverting
The US$100 million came from the sale of Camec announced a few days later, on 28 position leader Morgan Tsvangirai. With a run- Zimbabwe’s democracy. It is not clear if Rauten-
platinum mining rights that Mugabe’s govern- March, that it would issue 200 million shares off vote looming, and money in the bank to pay bach closed them or if the bank acted.
ment had quickly appropriated, then given to of its stock worth about 100 million British thugs and supporters, the Zanu PF set to work “It beggars belief that Credit Suisse contin-
a company owned by Muller Conrad “Billy” pounds (US$134.2 million). One of the buyers delivering on a threat to punish anyone who be- ued to provide Rautenbach with banking facil-
Rautenbach, a longtime friend of the regime. that helped finance the controversial deal was trayed them at the ballot box. ities given the furor created by Camec gifting
Mugabe’s regime used the proceeds of the deal reportedly Credit Suisse, which bought an un- US$100 million to Mugabe,” said Anneke Van
to pay for the president’s campaign of violence, known number of shares. The majority of shares Within days of the money arriving, a three- Woudenberg, executive director of UK-based
according to multiple reports. was bought by Och-Ziff Capital Management month campaign of terror had started. corporate watchdog RAID.
Group, a US-based hedge fund (now called “Credit Suisse’s process to verify its clients
Rautenbach and Credit Suisse knew each oth- Sculptor Capital Management). Soldiers and armed gangs unleashed Oper- was either woefully inadequate or completely
ation Makavhoterapapi? (‘Where did you put
Two weeks later, on 11 April 2008, Camec your vote?’), in which more than 100 people
were killed and over 1,000 attacked. Opposition
leader Tsvangirai was forced to flee the country

NewsHawks News Page 5

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

ignored,” she said. Infographic showing the timeline of the mining deal to save Mugabe. — Credit: Edin Pašović
By the end of May 2008, the two Rauten-
he would have made at least US$99 million, on volved in breaches of Zimbabwe sanctions” and Camec.
bach accounts were worth more than US$20 top of the US$5 million he earned when the “might have made unlawful payments in order By the end of 2013 ENRC had delisted and
million, and potentially as much as US$38 platinum rights were sold. to secure or retain its mining licenses.”
million, though OCCRP cannot assess whether left London after the UK’s Serious Fraud Of-
these funds were tied directly to the platinum Camec’s dealings in Zimbabwe were so du- Because Rautenbach was under EU sanctions fice opened an investigation into its business in
deal. The accounts were finally closed in April bious that ENRC was required to file a Suspi- at the time, ENRC had to get special permis- Africa.
2009, after UK authorities froze Rautenbach’s cious Activity Report to UK authorities when it sion from UK authorities to buy out his Camec
holdings in Camec. bought the company, according to court docu- shares. The platinum site in Zimbabwe was left un-
ments OCCRP obtained. developed for over a decade, and no platinum
By then, Mugabe was well into his fifth term, Though the UK Treasury did not confirm the appears to have ever been mined. — ORGANISED
and Rautenbach had already profited from the The report said Camec “might have been in- waiver was granted, ENRC acquired 100% of
platinum sale. Late former president Robert CRIME AND CORRUPTION REPORTING PROJECT

Backing Camec and Rautenbach Mugabe in 2015. — Picture: Press
Even before Camec took control of the Zim- Service of the President of Russia
babwe platinum mine, the company was grow-
ing rapidly during the height of the early 2000s
commodity boom. The company’s share price
soared and by 2007 it had attracted a range of
large institutional investors eager to capitalise on
rising metals prices.
A business intelligence consultant with
knowledge of Rautenbach’s dealings, who re-
quested anonymity for professional reasons, said
companies like Camec relied on backing from
institutional banks and investors to secure min-
ing deals.
“[The banks and companies] bring not only
capital, but high level connections and influ-
ence. Investors in Camec were desperate to de-
fend Camec and Rautenbach.”
By late 2008, one of Credit Suisse’s leading
Africa mining analysts had even joined Camec
as its head of investor relations.
Rautenbach also held a major stake in Camec
and was responsible for most of its day-to-day
operations in DRC, where he had long been a
key player in the troubled mining sector — of-
ten acting on behalf of Mugabe’s regime.
“[Banks and companies] liked that Rauten-
bach got things done — he was the hands-on
organiser,” the business intelligence consultant
said.
To finance the platinum rights acquisition,
Camec had tapped both old and new investors.
Credit Suisse bought in, but the main investor
was a New York-based hedge fund then called
Och-Ziff Capital Management Group, which
would later become enmeshed in a lawsuit that
shed light on the Zimbabwe deal.
In September 2016, Och-Ziff admitted to
bribing officials in countries across Africa, from
DRC to Libya, and agreed to pay a US$412
million fine to the US Department of Justice to
settle pending criminal charges.
Documents from that case describe a March
2008 visit to DRC and Zimbabwe by an Och-
Ziff executive.
He met with Rautenbach, described in docu-
ments as a “Zimbabwe shareholder” of a “Lon-
don stock exchange-listed mining company
with operations in the DRC.” The documents
corroborate Rautenbach’s role in the platinum
rights deal and the US$100 million that report-
edly made its way to Mugabe.
According to media reports, the Och-Ziff ex-
ecutive’s trip to Zimbabwe and DRC was orga-
nized by Credit Suisse.
Credit Suisse did not respond to questions
about specific accounts or customers. The bank
said it “operates its business in compliance with
all applicable global and local laws and regula-
tions” and that it had strengthened its “risk man-
agement framework and control systems.”
Rautenbach did not respond to questions.

Sanctions Ignored
In November 2008, once the scale of Zim-
babwe’s election violence had become clear, the
US Treasury Department sanctioned several
Mugabe “cronies,” including Rautenbach and
one of his companies, accusing him of support-
ing mining deals that benefitted corrupt officials.
The EU followed suit in January 2009, sanc-
tioning Rautenbach and hundreds of Zimba-
bwean officials and enablers. The EU lifted its
sanctions in 2012, while US sanctions remained
in place until 2014. Rautenbach had reported-
ly lobbied both the US and EU to get off the
blacklists.
In September 2009, Kazakh mining com-
pany Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation
(ENRC) agreed to buy Camec for an estimated
US$955 million, delivering a huge payday to its
shareholders, including Rautenbach and Credit
Suisse.
Rautenbach never publicly revealed how
much he profited from the sale to ENRC, but
OCCRP analysis of the share price shows that

Page 6 News NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

Brussels summit: EU snubs Mnangagwa

NYASHA CHINGONO

PRESIDENT Emmerson Mnangagwa was From left: President Emmerson Mnangagwa, European Council president Charles Michel and French President Emmanuel Macron at EU-Africa Summit in
snubbed by top European Union diplomats at last Brussels, Belgium, recently.
week’s EU-Africa Summit, while regional coun-
terparts secured critical meetings, pouring cold on re-engagement with the West. with the West. cal and economic reforms. In the aftermath of a
water on government claims that the 79-year-old At the summit, South Africa secured a US$8.5 Mnangagwa’s re-engagement drive has gone off bloody military crackdown, the President said any
leader had made major strides towards his re-en- soldier found to have committed crimes would be
gagement drive. billion deal from the United Kingdom, United the rails over the past three years, despite gobbling brought to book.
States and the European Union to curb high car- up millions of taxpayer dollars on public relations
Despite his trip to Brussels which follows last bon emissions and develop new renewable ener- firms which have tried in vain to spruce up the Baldwin had earlier promised to support Hara-
November’s horror Glasgow Climate Summit, gy projects. On the contrary, Zimbabwe’s leader country’s battered image. re’s return to the Commonwealth. Mugabe with-
it is apparent that Mnangagwa’s re-engagement returned home empty-handed. While South Af- drew Zimbabwe from the club of mostly former
drive has ground to a halt. rica was scoring big in climate change initiatives, The UK had remained Zimbabwe’s major British colonies in 2003 after the bloc condemned
Mnangagwa was relishing photo opportunities cheerleader until January 2019 when Mnangag- the callous killings of white farmers at the height
With the EU having all but lifted much of the with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and wa’s regime went on a rampage, killing 17 citizens, of land reforms and presidential polls marred by
sanctions on the country this week, Britain and US President Joe Biden. bruitalising dozens while many were displaced violence.
the United States still maintain symbolic sanc- during widespread riots over rising fuel prices.
tions on Zimbabwe. Mnangagwa arrived back home yesterday to Since then, Britain has slapped Zimbabwe with
pomp and fanfare, as thousands of bused support- The goodwill evaporated when the then minis- sanctions, with the latest being February last year.
Mnangagwa travelled to Brussels on the prom- ers celebrated a “successful” re-engagement drive. ter for Africa, Harriet Baldwin, declared that the Since the coup that toppled long-time ruler Rob-
ise that he would revive the re-engagement pro- While the world was seized with pressing climate UK would no longer support Zimbabwe’s bid to ert Mugabe, behind the scenes the UK had been
cess which has since 2019 gone off rails. The EU change issues, which include funding mechanisms rejoin the Commonwealth and the country’s at- campaigning for Zimbabwe’s debt clearance plan
maintains that the 79-year-old leader has failed to for migration from coal to more sustainable en- tempt to woo back foreign funders. and mediating with international financial institu-
improve the human rights situation. ergy, Mnangagwa was looking to mend relations tions to support a bailout for Harare.
She expressed dissatisfaction with Mnangag-
Since the death of former Foreign Affairs min- wa’s failure to implement badly needed politi-
ister Sibusiso Moyo last January, his successor
Frederick Shava has failed to spearhead the re-en- Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema (left) with EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security Josep Burell Rontelles.
gagement drive.

In Brussels, Mnangagwa only managed to meet
representatives of the Antwerp Diamond Council,
a grouping of diamond companies in Belgium, as
the country readies to take over the presidency of
the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme in
April this year.

Mnangagwa also met the vice-president of Sie-
mens, a German communications and medical
technology company, hoping to ink a deal for a
state-of-the-art health centre in Victoria Falls.

“Zimbabwe is courting Siemens companies
to come back and establish shop in Zimbabwe,”
presidential spokesperson George Charamba said.

As has become tradition, Mnangagwa relished
a photo opportunity with French President Em-
manuel Macron, EU president Ursula Von der
Leyen, with the French leader looking rather dis-
interested.

On his way to Brussels, the 79-year-old leader
met Ethiopian leader Abiy Ahmed Ali, who has
been under immense international pressure to end
conflict in Tigray, where thousands have died,
throwing the region into a humanitarian crisis.

While Mnangagwa received a cold shoulder, his
Zambian counterpart Hakainde Hichilema made
major strides in his engagement with the EU.

Hichilema was the busier of the two, enjoying
attention from top EU officials, who included Jo-
sep Burell Rontelles, the bloc’s high representative
for foreign affairs and security.

He also met the Finish Prime Minister and EU
representative, Charles Michel.

Hichilema’s meeting with the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) raised hopes that his coun-
try would get fresh funding for infrastructural
projects while he also met France’s Macron.

Top officials also say that the EU’s plan to send
a team to Zimbabwe had all but failed due to the
Ukrainian conflict, frustrating Mnangagwa’s only
hope of improving relations with the bloc.

Zimbabwe has since 2000 been reeling from
international isolation, with the country’s leaders
failing to make a breakthrough.

International relations expert Professor Ste-
phen Chan said EU diplomats did not find value
in meeting Mnangagwa since Zimbabwe is largely
viewed as an unsafe investment destination.

“As at COP26, Mnangagwa was received po-
litely but never at great length. It is felt that Zim-
babwe has no stable investment climate to offer
Europe. At the same time, it was felt that Mnan-
gagwa offers no threat to European interests.
There was no incentive to meet long with him and
there were two other factors: Other African leaders
were seen as more important and were given pri-
ority,” Chan said.

“Dwelling too long with Mnangagwa is still
seen as bad public relations. No charm offensive
can replace a deliberate and visible reform of the
Zimbabwean political and especially electoral cli-
mate.

Prior to Brussels, Mnangagwa had another di-
sastrous trip to Glasgow in November last year
where he failed to meaningfully engage world
leaders on climate matters, instead reducing the
all-important summit to optics and grandstanding

NewsHawks News Page 7

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

ATTORNEYS representing human rights law- Malunga’s lawyers intensify court
yer Siphosami Malunga and his business part- battle over seized Esidakeni farm
ners are intensifying their court battle against
Zanu PF secretary for administration Obert workers claiming occupation through him you were in unlawful occupation of our clients’ Human rights lawyer Siphosami Malunga
Mpofu over the illegal seizure of their farm in would be sentenced to 12 months in prison. farm. During that period, you unlawfully tam- and fruits which could not develop to market-
Nyamandlovu, Matabeleland North province. pered with our clients’ irrigation system depriv- able size and grade.”
In a letter to Madzivanyati dated 15 February ing our clients’ crops of water during the critical
This comes as Malunga, Zephaniah Dhlami- 2022, Kershelmar Farms through their lawyers, reproductive stage. You unlawfully diverted our “This damage to the crops has caused our
ni and Charles Moyo move to launch an appli- Webb, Low & Barry, demanded that he pay a to- clients’ water systems to service a piece of land clients to suffer financial loss amounting to
cation for leave to appeal Justice Evangelista’s tal of US$339 660 within seven days, failure of you had identified as belonging to yourself and US$339 660 (three hundred and thirty-nine
judgment that their early February chamber ap- which legal action would be taken against him. our clients were unable to water and spray their thousand six hundred and sixty dollars). We
plication for leave to execute the order pending crops which resulted in the crops suffering mois- have been instructed to demand, as we hereby
appeal on her previous ruling in their favour is “Our clients were in peaceful occupation of ture stress and insect infestation.” do, payment of the amount of US$339 660 to
not urgent. the farm known as Esidakeni Farm, where they our clients within seven (7) days of receipt of
planted 150 000 tomatoes and 65 000 butter- The lawyers said as a result their clients’ crops this letter failing which, further recourse will be
Malunga and his partners had obtained judg- nuts,” the letter reads. “were seriously damaged and experienced wilt- sought against you at the High Court for recov-
ment in October last year in their favour after ing and drying off of foliage, flower, abortion, ery of the same, the costs of which shall be for
Mpofu and his associates were found to have “Our clients have advised that from the pe- your account,” the letter said. — STAFF WRITER.
grabbed the farm on the basis of an offer letter riod of September 2021 — November 2021
but without following due process with regards
to removing the owners who were “in peaceful
and undisturbed occupation of the property”.

The effect of the judgment was to order Mpo-
fu’s eviction from the farm on the basis that he
should not act arbitrarily.

Aggrieved by the decision, Mpofu noted an
appeal to the Supreme Court. The effect of that
was to suspend the order in favour of Malunga
and his colleagues. After that, Malunga and his
partners subsequently filed an urgent application
which sought to allow execution pending deter-
mination of the appeal.

Although she had earlier granted them the
eviction order, Justice Kabasa said the applica-
tion of execution pending appeal was not urgent.
Malunga’s lawyers are now filing an application
for leave to appeal that decision.

This came as the Esidakeni Farm owners, who
are heavily invested in the project, are demand-
ing nearly US$340 000 in compensation for the
destruction of their crops during the time when
National University of Science and Technology
lecturer Dumisani Madzivanyati had illegally oc-
cupied the property.

Esidakeni, also known as Kershelmar Farms
(Private) Limited, is owned by Malunga,
Dhlamini and Moyo, who bought it in 2017
from a white former farmer, but are struggling
to retain ownership after the state acquired the
farm in 2020 through a Notice of Acquisition
General Notice 3042 published in a Government
Gazette.

In December, Malunga and partners were
granted a provisional order to evict

Madzivanyati from Esidakeni after he defied
an initial court judgment.

Madzivanyati and Mpofu, who already has
many other farms, were controversially allocated
pieces of land by the state at the farm.

The High Court order said should
Madzivanyati fail to comply, he together with

Govt threatens to halt Wadyajena’s road project

MOSES MATENGA Zanu PF Gok- ied to the chief director of roads, read in part. In a letter signed by one P Wadyajena respond-
we-Nembudziya contacted for comment, Wadyajena denied that ing to the provincial engineer dated 6 January
GOVERNMENT in January threatened to stop MP Justice Mayor his company had been blocked from the project 2022, the company committed to finishing the
a company linked to Zanu PF Gokwe-Nem- and told The NewsHawks that his team was on site work as agreed and pleaded for an extension with-
budziya Member of Parliament Justice Mayor Wadyajena working. in 35 days and blamed the Covid-19 pandemic
Wadyajena (pictured) from proceeding with the unable to execute the works. Furthermore, the and breakdown of equipment for the delay.
construction of the Golden Valley-Sanyati Road, contractor has not yet furnished the client with “That is all politics, we are on site right now
accusing the firm of failing to get the job done. requisite performance bonds and insurances re- working,” Wadyajena said. “We acknowledge our failure to finish all the
quired for contract signing,” Gomo wrote in the works on the intended date of the 28th of De-
Wadyajena, through his company Mayor Con- letter. cember, 2021 due to some factors which were
tracting (Pvt) Ltd, was contracted to work on the beyond our control,” the letter by Mayor Con-
road in question but, according to a letter dated “We recommend that the employer proceed tracting reads in part.
17 January 2022 addressed to the secretary for with contract determination,” the letter, also cop-
Transport and Infrastructural Development writ- “In the latter days of November, 2021, most of
ten by an official who signed off as S. Gomo, the our working personnel were affected by the pre-
Mashonaland West provincial roads engineer, the vailing Coronavirus and we had several positive
company had failed to perform, hence the pro- cases therefore all who had been in contact had to
posal to cancel the contract. go into self-quarantine in their respective homes
to prevent any further spread of the virus within
“The project engineer, acting in terms of Clause the camp.”
65 (1) (e) of the ZGCC4 (1984), hereby writes to
the employer certifying that the contractor, May- The company said it was now back on site
or Contracting (Pvt) Ltd contracted to carry out and confirmed that 25% of the total works had
the above-mentioned contract has failed to per- been done by the time of writing the letter on 2
form according to the conditions of contract,” the January 2022. The firm pledged to work on the
letter read in part. project at a more accelerated rate starting on 10
January 2022. Observers have raised red flags over
“It is the opinion of the Project Engineer that the awarding of tenders to companies linked to
the contractor is unable to execute the works in Zanu PF and government officials who end up
accordance to the approved programme of works. doing a shoddy job.

“Find attached the notice of contract deter- Last year, Transport minister Felix Mhona con-
mination written to the contractor and response ceded that some of the companies contracted to
thereto which the project engineer has studied work on the country’s major roads were doing a
and reached a conclusion that the contractor is shoddy job and threatened to recall some of them
if they do not change.

Page 8 News NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

PRESS RELEASE:

ZINARA CHAMPIONING
INFRASTRUCTURE REVOLUTION

The Zimbabwe National Road Administration ZINARA ERRP2 DISBURSEMENTS TO ROAD AUTHORITIES IN 2021
(ZINARA) hereby presents the key milestones
and funding strategies for Road routine and ROAD AUTHORITY Disbursement through Disbursement TOTAL FUNDS
periodic maintenance and Emergency Road Local Authorities through DOR and DISBURSED
Rehabilitation Program 2 to its Stakeholders. DDF (ZWL)
As the Board of a strategic national institution, we find 873 202 381
it prudent to open channels of communication with the HARARE City Council 198 998 388 674 203 993 353 535 672
nation to engage and keep the nation abreast with all our 25 772 089
activities to ensure that no one is left behind. Accordingly, BULAWAYO City Council 128 801 008 224 734 664 165 484 557
let me take this opportunity to give a summary of our 35 332 571
mandate in the road infrastructure development matrix. GWERU City Council 25 772 089 - 133 009 614
ZINARA is a Road Fund manager, and our mandate is to
fix road user charges; collect such charges or any other MASVINGO City Council 165 484 557 - 1 025 600 069
revenue of the Road Fund and allocate and disburse 839 346 620
such funds to Road Authorities in line with the Roads Act MUTARE Urban Council 35 332 571 -
[Chapter 13:18], the Public Finance and Management 1 365 238 323
Act, and as per other policy and procedure frameworks. HARARE PROVINCE 133 009 614 -
The Road Authorities that we disburse to are, the 1 058 119 237
Department of Roads under the Ministry of Transport and MANICALAND PROVINCE 286 200 433 739 399 636 732 652 274
Infrastructure Development, the District Development
Fund in the Office of the President and Cabinet and the MASHONALAND CENTRAL PROVINCE 352 031 217 487 315 403 1 116 065 995
various Urban and Rural District Councils. All entities
falling under these Road Authority groups are thereafter MASHONALAND EAST PROVINCE 284 578 154 1 080 660 169
responsible for the maintenance of our road networks.
Let me emphasise that our role as a fund administrator is MASHONALAND WEST PROVINCE 634 534 037 423 585 200
limited to availing funding to the Road Authorities. After MASVINGO PROVINCE 248 146 404 484 505 871
funding is received by the respective Road Authorities MATABELELAND NORTH PROVINCE 327 993 857 788 072 138
we do follow the impact of the disbursed public funds by
monitoring and evaluating their use hence our mandate MATABELELAND SOUTH PROVINCE 179 504 211 710 718 509 890 222 720
is to audit all the ninety-three (93) Road Authorities in the
country to ensure that the funds have indeed been used MIDLANDS PROVINCE 376 427 619 515 347 017 891 774 636
for their intended purpose. In our engagements with the TOTAL DISBURSED AMOUNT 3 376 814 159 6 128 542 601 9 505 356 760
Road Authorities, we always emphasise the importance
of delivering quality road maintenance to ensure that the Going forward, we have set and finalized the (ERRP2) Funding Strategies for 2022 as we are conscious of the
limited funds are stretched further over the years so as urgency at hand in attending to road works. Accordingly, we have set a budget of 17 billion ZWL for disbursements
to avoid a scenario where contractors have to attend to to provinces and major cities as indicated in the table below. Our projection is to start the disbursements possibly
patching work recurrently. mid-March when we anticipate that the rains would have subsided. The allocations comprise disbursements
It is not a secret that the current state of our roads made directly to rural and urban councils for works done through the Department of Roads and the DDF. The
is worrisome and resultantly as you may recall His projected allocations are presented as follows:
Excellency the President Dr. E.D Mnangagwa in February
2021 declared all roads to be in a state of national ZINARA ERRP2 DISBURSEMENTS TO ROAD AUTHORITIES IN 2022
disaster following the heavy rains that we received during
the 2020-2021 rainy season. The President went on to ROAD AUTHORITY ALLOCATION (ZWL)
launch the Emergency Rehabilitation Road Program 2
(ERRP2) to urgently ameliorate the devastation of our DEPARTMENT OF ROADS HQ 6 337 065 357
road infrastructure. The (ERRP2) is in line with the ethos
of the National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1) whose DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT FUND HQ 4 527 047 879
key aspirations include Infrastructural Development as a
key enabler in attaining Vision 2030. HARARE City Council 1 116 288 970
Given the foregoing, ZINARA was mandated to mobilise
the financing of the emergency road rehabilitation BULAWAYO City Council 338 232 414
works and the Minister of Transport and Infrastructural
Development, Honourable Felix Mhona has left no stone GWERU Urban Council 196 249 227
unturned in spearheading the fulfilment of this national
cause. As you might be aware, during the inauguration MUTARE Urban Council 163 540 928
ceremony of the Board, we pledged to the nation that the
rebranded ZINARA will be an epitome of good corporate MASVINGO City Council 122 170 765 Spidexmedia
governance compliance guided by the values of
transparency and disclosure. Today marks an important MASHONALAND EAST 519 666 261
step in the fulfilment of that pledge as we present key
facts and figures regarding our operations. In particular, MASHONALAND CENTRAL 451 591 400
we are presenting a report on the disbursements made
by the Fund in the previous year and the disbursements MANICALAND 444 246 412
for this year.
MASHONALAND WEST 741 452 947

MASVINGO PROVINCE 361 246 588

MIDLANDS 661 434 426

MATABELELAND NORTH 524 610 864

MATABELELAND SOUTH 495 155 562

TOTAL ALLOCATION 17 000 000 000

The year 2021 was a highly successful year for ZINARA, in efficiently providing funding for the emergency road
works necessitated by Cyclone Idai and the incessant rains received during the 2020-2021 farming season. As
the Government goes into Phase 3 of the Emergency Road Rehabilitation Programe 2 in 2022, ZINARA will
continue to employ both internal and external strategies to avail funding for road works.

During the year 2021 (March to December), ZINARA, Bulawayo Masiyepambili Road
under the guidance of and support from the Ministry We plead with the Road Authorities to ensure timely acquittals which are key for them to access the next
of Transport and Infrastructural Development and disbursements. I would like to thank all stakeholders for playing their complimentary roles in ensuring that we
Treasury, disbursed $9.5 billion ZWL to support Phase 1 achieve our mandate. Particularly, I wish to proffer my sincere appreciation to colleagues from the media fraternity
and 2 of the Emergency Road Rehabilitation Program 2 who have been instrumental in highlighting all areas that need to be attended to in facilitating Zimbabwe’s
works across the country. The funds were disbursed to infrastructural revolution.
the Road Authorities. We implore you to continue the good work, if we work together with a common purpose and shared vision we will
Below is a summary of the disbursements made to the successfully build our nation. As ZINARA, we can assure you that we will continue to handle these public funds
Road Authorities in 2021. I am happy to announce that with high probity and propriety.
no single Road Authority is owed what it was allocated
last year.

Zimbabwe National Road Administration [email protected] www.zinara.co.zw zinaraZw

NewsHawks News Page 9

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

CCC to convene elective congress soon

MOSES MATENGA . . . claims Mnangagwa in panic mode
THE opposition Citizens’ Coalition for Change
(CCC) leader Nelson Chamisa says his party will of the voter registration process and controver- ification to be part of our new brand of exciting CCC denies allegations of discord within the party.
soon convene an elective congress to choose a sy around the voters’ roll is a cause for concern,” politics. So ours is a coalition or an alliance of or- in workers, the church, in civil servants, in PVOs,
leadership amid reports of a tussle for positions as Chamisa said. dinary citizens and not political confederations,” in vendors, in journalists, in the doctors, in social
senior officials position themselves for key posts in the former student leader said. media users, in artistes and even in school children
the new outfit. “Zec has a constitutional obligation to conduct and their parents.
free, fair and credible polls. That is their sole remit. On proposed legislation, including the Private
Speaking in an interview with The NewsHawks, They don’t have to be stampeded to execute their Voluntary Organisations (PVOs) Bill and the Pa- “They see enemies in every sector of the coun-
Chamisa also said President Emmerson Mnangag- constitutional mandate, but if they are yearning to triotic Bill that the ruling Zanu PF party is pur- try’s citizenry. That is why they are crafting laws
wa’s regime was in panic mode as evidenced by the be so stampeded, then the citizens will gladly do suing in against everyone. They know their days are num-
introduction of oppressive legislation. so within the parameters of the national constitu- bered and they are now in panic mode.”
tion,” he said. Parliament, the former Kuwadzana member of
Chamisa said his party was ready to take action, Parliament said pushing for such was an indica- “We are unstoppable and unshakable. Dicta-
as allowed by the constitution, if the Zimbabwe On the idea of building a coalition with oth- tion of panic in Mnangagwa’s administration. torships never learn from their predecessor’s failed
Electoral Commission (Zec), fails to ensure free er political parties, Chamisa said: “Let me restate templates. The world over, all dictators seem to
and fair elections. that the citizen agency is the currency of our new “I see all these as signs and symptoms of desper- have a hymn sheet they sing from.
politics. CCC is a coalition of citizens for change. ation,” he said.
There has been anxiety in the new party as sev- It is a convergence and coalition of citizens and “It is not sustainable to suppress people and it
eral individuals who occupied key positions in the not a coalition of political institutions. “And it’s not just about Chamisa. When every- means their days are numbered and, ultimately,
MDC-Alliance were unaware of their new role in one is an enemy to you, then you are the worst en- repression will have to give in. These are signs of
the movement and anxious over political survival. “Just being a Zimbabwean citizen is the qual- emy. My brother ED sees an enemy in everyone, the times and they are showing they have learnt
in Chamisa, in the citizens, in the war veterans, nothing and forgotten nothing,” he added.
But Chamisa, who is the interim leader of
the CCC, which is yet to be officially launched, CCC leader Nelson Chamisa says Zec must uphold professionalism.
said reports of discord in the party cockpit were
ill-conceived as the party was yet to have leader-
ship structures.

“We are a new, fresh, modern and radically dif-
ferent citizens’ project, not a rebranded or repack-
aged toxic old one,” Chamisa said.

“Everyone is a champion and a leader until we
have substantive elected positions. All positions
are up for contest when we then choose leaders,”
the former Information Communication Tech-
nology minister said.

Asked on when the congress is likely to take
place, Chamisa said: “We do not advise our op-
ponents on our next steps, but the citizens know
because they drive the process.

“Nothing teaches better than history and noth-
ing educates better than experience. We have
learnt that we have infiltrators and we cannot al-
ways whisper strategies into the ear of those who
stand opposed to us. The citizens are driving the
processes.”

Chamisa said there were no rifts in the party
as it was following procedures in the setting up of
structures as the movement was “completely new”
and dismissed talk that he dissolved structures to
sideline some leaders.

“Which cockpit? You are thoroughly mistaken
and misconceived on that one. When there is no
structure, how do you dissolve anything? How do
you dissolve nothing?” he asked rhetorically.

“Do not resurrect the MDC-Alliance discourse,
it’s our history. We have just formed a new move-
ment. Which structure are you saying has been
dissolved when there is nothing? Structures are
a creature of legal processes and for now we have
just introduced the party. We are yet to have the
national launch. I am the caretaker change cham-
pions’ leader and all others in the team who hold
caretaker positions. We are starting from afresh.
Do not conflate the past with the future, the old
and the new. I was leader of the MDC-Alliance
which was controversially taken away and we have
a new kid on the block together with other change
champions.

“Some people see confusion or division where
there is none. Do not put the cart before the horse.
They say so and so has this position. Who gave
them that position? Everyone is a change cham-
pion as we build the new glorious citizens’ move-
ment,” he said.

He said developments in the opposition camp
that saw his MDC-Alliance losing the name, the
party headquarters, the colours and almost every-
thing was a blessing in disguise as it has managed
to remove all the “chaff” and allow the birth of
the new.

“The robbery has been a blessing in disguise.
We are now new. The chaff is gone,” Chamisa said.

Chamisa declared his party will fight all imped-
iments, including shenanigans by Zec, capture of
state institutions, intimidation and arbitrary ar-
rests of his supporters, to win the 2023 elections
and form the next government.

“Reforms must happen. Elections must be free
and fair. There is just no debate on this. But on ac-
count of Zec’s professional deficiencies, absence of
probity and deficit of professional independence,
Zec has fertilised voter cynicism and skepticism,
rendering citizens despondent. Their handling

Page 10 News NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

MOSES MATENGA Citizens take charge as Chamisa
regains fading political traction
A TRENDING video of an elderly woman clad
in yellow walking with the aid of a stick on her Gogo Chihera was among CCC supporters (below) at Zimbabwe Grounds in Highfield, Harare. their parents were being subjected to, hence the
way to Nelson Chamisa’s rally aptly captured the urgent need for action.
mood of last week’s gathering. natural connection with ordinary people, it gives misa, who have won the numbers game, with
him a convening capacity which defies police Mwonzora not featuring in the picture. “As students, we want to tell our parents that
The woman, only identified as Gogo Chihera roadblocks and dirty CIO plots, it is something you must not vote for rice; vote for democracy,”
and said to be in her 80s, staggered to join thou- that the likes of poor Mnangagwa, who rent and “The rally by Mnangagwa, the other by Cha- Zinasu president Benon Ncube said.
sands of Citizens’ Coalition for Change (CCC) bus their crowds, can only dream of.” misa and Mwonzora were an attempt to settle
supporters who had defied all odds to throng the who really is into politics in the real sense,” politi- “Do not tire in fighting for democracy till the
Zimbabwe Grounds to meet their party leader, Renowned academic Ibbo Mandaza said the cal analyst Rashweat Mukundu said. bitter end, we will always build a new heroes’ acre
two years after he was put under siege by his po- large crowds at the Chamisa rally on Sunday was a for you. We need a working public transport sys-
litical adversaries. story of defiance by opposition supporters against “It was an attempt to appeal to the public court tem, payment of enough salaries to our parents
the Mnangagwa regime. and say ‘can the people of Zimbabwe, even be- and a working Zimbabwe,” he added.
From stringent police conditions, several secu- fore voting, make their voice heard on who really
rity check-points, intimidation and potential vio- “So, as expected, tens of thousands have already matters in politics?’ and I think that question was Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition chairperson Pe-
lence, thousands of Chamisa’s supporters showed converged at Zimbabwe Grounds for Chamisa’s settled in Epworth when Mnangagwa brought ter Mutasa said the organisation believed in the
grit and sheer determination to attend the rally. star by-election rally, defying shameful conduct his supporters, in Highfield by Mwonzora with CCC philosophy in fighting for the oppressed
by the state to frustrate the event. It’s beyond op- no one endorsing him and, thirdly, by Chamisa and called for a government that respects people’s
But what was clearly evident was the lack of tics. Mnangagwa’s regime hangs on a thread and when he re-established himself as a political force rights.
adequate regalia that forced many to improvise in the deep state is taking note,” Mandaza said. in Zimbabwe.”
creative and hilarious ways to fit in the colour yel- “l am here because you invited us. We do not
low and meet the 44-year-old leader whose politi- Professor of world politics Stephen Chan said: “Essentially, the two political leaders that mat- go where they plan to destroy, murder and cap-
cal life seemed doomed in the past two years until “Ok, it seems the young man has done it. Forget ter are Chamisa and Mnangagwa and the two po- ture institutions of the state, including the police,
last week’s massive “Yellow Sunday” rally. anyone else. He is the opposition now.” litical parties that matter are Zanu PF and CCC,” judges and soldiers. They do not invite us because
Mukundu said. they know we will call them to order,” Mutasa
“I gave glory to God and felt so humbled by Political analysts described Chamisa’s Zim- said.
the citizens’ emotional, emphatic and eloquent babwe Grounds rally as affirmation that the real In solidarity, the Zimbabwe National Stdents’
endorsement,” Chamisa told The NewsHawks on 2023 fight was between Mnangagwa and Cha- Union said they were heartbroken by the lives “People are crying and wallowing in poverty,
how he felt that Sunday afternoon. no food, no salaries, soldiers are hungry, people
are dying there are no doctors. I want democracy,
“When I saw that determined crowd, I simply equality and equity. We are here because we are
said this is it and the day that the Lord has made, conscious,” Mutasa added.
the day that the citizens have welcomed our ‘cit-
izen first’ and ‘citizens at the centre’ philosophy. In his address, Chamisa said while his nemesis
Citizen-centred politics is the new trajectory,” thought they were done with him, he has man-
Chamisa added. aged to rise again.

Without the much-needed resources, Chamisa “They thought they were done with us, I told
was bound to struggle in painting the city yellow, them they don’t know who we are. I told them
but his legion of supporters had something up they do not know us. l got the direction from (the
their sleeves. late former MDC-T leader Morgan Tsvangirai)
Save of where we ought to go. You can capture
One of the supporters simply took a tattered the leaders, but you can never capture the people,”
yellow shoe, tied a string on it to hang loose Chamisa said.
around his neck and even bragged about it, say-
ing: “I wish God would just bring Mwonzora’s “This (Zimbabwe Grounds) is where it began
heart here so that we check how it is responding with (the late former President Robert) Mugabe
after seeing this kind of gathering.” and (the late former Vice-President (Joshua)

Another supporter dipped his white T-shirt in Nkomo. I am here to say Mugabe, Nkomo,
yellow paint and wore it to the rally while anoth- (the late former Zapu leader Dumiso) Dabengwa,
er simply “wore” an empty carton of cooking oil, we are here to finish what you started,” Chamisa
yellow in colour. said.

Another supporter, clad in a grey suit and a Chamisa got endorsement from firebrand for-
matching blue shirt, tucked around six bananas mer Zanu PF youth activist Godfrey Tsenengamu
on a headband just to have something yellow to who described Mnangagwa as “fake”.
fit in.
“I was there (in Zanu PF) and there is nothing,”
Chamisa said it was humbling that his sup- Tsenengamu told thousands of CCC supporters.
porters were showing commitment to supporting
their political project. “l know Baba 2 (father of twins, as Mnangagwa
is also known) one on one. When you are faraway
Other supporters wore unbranded yellow gar- from him, you would think he has something to
ments and posed as members of the apostolic sects offer, but there is nothing. We were told Mugabe
at a shrine, role-playing as if they were exorcising was a problem, but now we realised we are not
the demons of poverty and dictatorship in the going anywhere. We thought Mugabe was a thief,
country. but they are now stealing as if the country is clos-
ing tomorrow,” Tsenengamu said.
“We have a resilient citizen at the centre of
all this. Do you believe that at the Zimbabwe “l am here because you (Chamisa), you are a
Grounds, everything was catered for by the citi- force to reckon with. We will walk together to
zens? We did not buy anything, even the T-shirts. build Zimbabwe.”
Some were even innovative enough to put on
cardboard boxes, if you saw the one in a ZimGold
box, some just waved yellow shoes and bananas
and it shows the revolution is unstoppable,” Cha-
misa said.

“You cannot fight people and win. People
walked, we did not provide buses for them. Ev-
erything you saw was a product of the citizens
both in the diaspora and locally but more in the
diaspora,” he said.

Hundreds walked from as far afield as Ep-
worth, defying security check-points and threats
from police who had blocked the busing of sup-
porters for the rally.

Chamisa’s campaign has received a lot of
goodwill, including a campaign to buy him an
armoured US$120 000 vehicle pushed by the
diaspora last year after a suspected assassination
attempt during his countrywide tour of party
structures.

A public address system sourced by the diaspo-
ra community was also donated for the rally.

The last two years saw Chamisa losing every-
thing from Morgan Tsvangirai House, the party
name, millions of dollars under the Political Par-
ties (Finance) Act and even 18 of his party mem-
bers of Parliament who were recalled by Douglas
Mwonzora together with over 80 councillors.

Chamisa received massive endorsements from
respected academics who certified him as the
official opposition, based on the numbers that
thronged Zimbabwe Grounds on Sunday.

Former cabinet minister Jonathan Moyo took
to microblogging site Twitter on the day of the
rally, saying: “Clearly, Chamisa has an unmatched

NewsHawks News Page 11

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

Zim polls: Maimane demands credibility

MOSES MATENGA state media, intimidation of opponents and sub- South African opposition leader Mmusi Maimane that comprehensive documentation will enable us
version of elections has led to a suppression of the “If this is not done in the by-elections and in to resolve,” Maimane said.
SOUTH Africa should team up with regional democratic will of the people hence many were the 2023 elections, then this is something that
groupings, including Sadc to ensure Zimba- fleeing to South Africa. must not be endorsed by South Africa. Objective He said South Africa must also support diaspo-
bwe’s 2023 general elections are not rigged and criteria exist for assessing an election, the African ra voting for Zimbabweans scattered around the
the observers do not endorse a flawed process as Maimane said preparations by South Africa Charter is very clear. We must avoid the mistakes globe, including in the neighbouring country, to
happened in the past, South African opposition and other countries for a free, fair and credible of 2002, 2008 and 2018 where South Africa con- be allowed to participate in democratic processes.
leader Mmusi Maimane has said. elections, starting with the 26 March by-elections, tributed to giving a veil of legitimacy to an elec-
should begin now. tion that was not free and fair,” he said. “This is something that South Africa already al-
In an exclusive interview with The News- “South Africa must send observers to these lows its own citizens. If you are a citizen of South
Hawks over the continued immigration crisis in “An election does not become unfair only on elections who are rigorous, meticulous and well Africa, living and working in another part of
the neighbouring country that plays host to mil- voting day, a favourable environment has to be trained. Observers who are committed to making world, you can still participate in your democracy,
lions of Zimbabweans, who are mainly political cultivated well before the elections. This means sure that the elections were indeed free and fair.” your vote is still given expression because a vote is
and economic refugees, the leader of the One SA equal access to state-owned media, this means He said the South African ministry of Home a fundamental part of personhood and dignity.”
Movement said the immigration crisis in South opening up the voters’ roll to robust scrutiny, this Affairs must ensure adequate documentation to
Africa will be solved if a strong position is taken means allowing for registration (of voters) and establish the real number of Zimbabweans in “Overseas voting is important towards solving
against repression and human rights violations in participation of all citizens of Zimbabwe.” South Africa and other immigrants. the problem of captured democracy in Zimba-
Zimbabwe. This comes as a group in South Af- “It is unclear how many Zimbabwean nation- bwe. Those who left did not abdicate their dem-
rica has mounted protests under the Operation In the absence of this, Maimane said, South als are currently in South Africa, this is something ocratic rights and in many instances they were
Dudula banner against undocumented citizens, Africa must not endorse the outcome as the play- forced to leave by an atmosphere of violence and
demanding the immediate deportation of Zimba- ing field will not be level. repression.”
bweans and other nationals for allegedly “stealing”
their jobs. “When discussing the immigration challenge
that is facing South Africa, there are two areas of
Maimane said it was critical for South Africa focus that matter: firstly documenting undocu-
and the regional blocs to first deal with the prob- mented immigrants, so as to clarify their status
lems across the borders, including in Zimbabwe, in South Africa,” the former Democratic Alliance
where he accused President Emmerson Mnangag- leader said.
wa’s regime of human rights violations and eco-
nomic mismanagement. “Secondly, dealing with the root causes of mi-
gration. In the Sadc region, weak institutions, hu-
“The bottom line is that we cannot address the man rights violations and oppressive regimes have
Zimbabwean migration trends without dealing made South Africa the most accessible sanctuary.”
with the political issues that created this pattern
of human flow. The reality is that the Mnangagwa “In order to efficiently reverse and mitigate the
regime is a continuation of the (late former presi- migration patterns, South Africa will have to play
dent Robert) Mugabe regime and it is an illiberal a bigger regional role and use its economic and
government which has killed civilians and violat- diplomatic influence to improve human rights in
ed their political rights,” the former Democratic the region, political rights in the region and ulti-
Alliance leader said. mately to oppose unfair elections in the region.”

He said a free and fair election that is credible “In the same way that the Ecowas region is very
will go a long way in addressing a myriad of chal- harsh in its response to coup attempts in the re-
lenges Zimbabwe was facing. gion, Sadc must be very harsh in its response to
oppression and violations of the African Charter
He said this would allow its people to return on Democracy, Elections and Governance,” Mai-
home and investors to invest in the country again. mane said.

“The systemic oppression of the people of Zim- Millions of Zimbabweans are reportedly in
babwe has been ongoing fundamentally because South Africa and scattered across the world as po-
of the conduct of the Zanu PF party. An unfa- litical and economic refugees.
vourable business environment has been created
and this has led to an exodus of investors and an Although South Africa has been instrumen-
unattractive environment for entrepreneurship tal in trying to address the crisis in Zimbabwe
and development,” he said. — with the governing African National Con-
gress sending a high-powered delegation last year
He said the government’s continued control of to engage the Zanu PF leadership — there is a
sentiment that more can be done to rescue the
long-running crisis.

BERNARD MPOFU Potraz refutes throttling internet

THE launch of the opposition Citizens’ Coali- There was significant slowdown of internet services for many users in Zimbabwe last Sunday, as the CCC rally was taking place at the Zimbabwe Grounds in
tion for Change (CCC) led by Nelson Chamisa Highfield, Harare.
last Sunday overwhelmed Zimbabwe’s internet
connectivity, sparking fears that the authorities of ICT and by extension government. As reg- ter legislators died. By-elections to fill the posts low Sunday demonstration by the Citizens’ Co-
in Harare had throttled access to the World ulator, I know these accusations are false. The are slated for 26 March. alition for Change (CCC) party, which seeks to
Wide Web, but the country’s telecommunica- internet was not tampered with, but this was a unseat the ruling Zanu PF,” NetBlocks said.
tion regulator has denied this. case of too much traffic at the same time which A statement from NetBlocks, a cybersecurity
overwhelmed the networks. Everybody was and internet governance watchdog, confirmed The Media Institute of Southern Africa, a
Zimbabwe, which has one of the highest data downloading videos, everybody sending out the significant slowdown of internet services regional media advocacy organisation, said the
service tariffs in the world, has in the past been videos at the same time and they were so many. for many users in Zimbabwe on Sunday as the sluggish internet connectivity had hampered
criticised for slowing down the internet service Such is the characteristic of 4G. Now what is CCC rally was taking place at the Zimbabwe journalists from carrying out their work.
to silence dissenters during and after major po- the customer case? With 5G, glitches of this na- Grounds in Highfield, Harare.
litical events. ture are going to be a thing of the past.” It is not the first time the Zimbabwean au-
The slowdown in services, according to ex- thorities have tampered with the internet. On
Chamisa, who, for months, appeared to be Over 130 vacant parliamentary and council perts, affected several internet providers, with 15 January 2019, protests against the rising
largely hibernating after he lost control of the seats fell vacant when several politicians were many reaching low reachability rates of between price of fuel swept the country, triggering a po-
Movement for Democratic Change, last Sun- recalled after Chamisa lost a legal battle for the 50% and 60%. litical backlash. Back then, NetBlocks reported
day launched a new party, which analysts said control of the MDC while other slots arose af- internet shutdowns which rapidly proceeded to
would offer strong opposition to the ruling “The incident impacted multiple operators have nationwide impact.
Zanu PF. and has prevented livestreaming from the Yel-

The rally, dubbed “Yellow Sunday”, was the
campaign launch for the new political par-
ty which seeks to unseat Zanu PF. Thousands
turned up in support of Chamisa, creating a sea
of yellow, the CCC’s colour.

Gift Machengete, director-general of the
Postal and Telecommunications Regulatory
Authority of Zimbabwe (Potraz), told delegates
attending the launch of the country’s first 5G
network that high traffic had caused the slug-
gish internet connection, and not censorship.

“Only this week I read an article . . . The
article purported that internet slowdown ex-
perienced last Sunday was deliberate as it was
meant to scuttle media coverage of an opposi-
tion political party’s event,” Machengete said
during Econet Wireless’ 5G launch.

“The article blamed the regulator, it blamed
all the operators, it also blamed the ministry

Page 12 News NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

NYASHA CHINGONO Artistes tread on political egg
shells as campaigns hot up
AS political temperatures hot up ahead of next
month’s by-elections, a new soundtrack is rever- Zimdancehall artiste Ricky Apart from music, Zanu PF has gone for a collaboration between musician Roki, Congo-
berating in the air as politicians put their hope Fire performs at Citizens’ Coalition broke in efforts to garner the elusive youth vote lese rhumba star Koffi Olomide and Tanzanian
in A-lister artistes to attract huge crowds in ef- for Change rally in Highfield, Hara- ahead of the crunch 2023 election, including singer Rayvanny on the song Patati Patata.
forts described by observers as a scramble for the recruiting preachers, socialites and artistes in a
youth vote. re, last week (below). desperate bid to bag 2.5 million ballots. In the song, the Congolese musician chants
the oppressor on a silver platter,” chanted Ricky Mnangagwa’s name. This sparked outrage on so-
This follows a furious drive by politicians, Fire during his act. Following his performance, Garnering the youth vote has been a toll order cial media last year from opposition supporters
particularly President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s other artistes, notably Sani Makhalima, came for Zanu PF as many young people are disgrun- while Mnangagwa loyalists lapped it all up, join-
Zanu PF and Nelson Chamisa’s Citizens’ Coa- out in support of Ricky Fire. tled over economic hardships. ing a dance trend on TikTok.
lition for Change (CCC), to engage celebrities,
socialites and musicians in their campaign ahead Makhalima is one of the few artistes who have As part of its voter mobilisation strategy, the While engaging musicians and celebrities is
of the 26 March by-elections. openly come out in support of Chamisa. ruling party has enlisted the services of social common practice across the world and not a
media luminaries like Madam Boss, Mai TT and new tactic, the upcoming election is likely to be
Gatherings of a political nature had become “You don’t have to be Chamisa’s supporter to controversial clergyman Passion Java. influenced by these stars — in view of the cen-
rather pedestrian without the infectious melo- know that corruption is destroying the country trality of the youth vote.
dies and rhythms from the ghetto that have cap- and to call for change or a better Zimbabwe,” The party is also believed to have bankrolled
tured the imagination, arousing political debate Makhalima was quoted as saying. However, it is unfortunate that artistes are
on social media. sometimes used for political expediency without
It is apparent that music and social media will much accruing to them.
Since the start of the campaign period, politi- be a key factor in the run up to 2023, even de-
cal parties have gone all out to engage influential termining the voter demographics. Some political outfits are well known for not
artistes, including the much-celebrated Mbare- paying artistes while some ride on the notion of
based Zimdancehall chanters from Chillspot exposure.
Records, DJ Fantan and Levels.
What is not in doubt is that any action by an
Zimdancehall artistes have become the most artiste will attract a reaction from the public.
sought-after performers as the country gears for
crunch by-elections, widely acknowledged as a Cancel culture has been used to blackout ar-
dress rehearsal for the 2023 polls. tistes perceived to be supporting an opposing
ideology.
The influence of Zimdancehall music, espe-
cially in the high-density suburbs, has been un- While the political space is highly polarised,
deniable in recent years. the arts sector follows in the same fashion.

And as political parties push to get the elusive Arts critic Plot Mhako said politicians are rid-
youth vote, the genre has once again emerged ing on popular sentiment to garner votes.
as a trump card for anyone either encouraging
young people to register or come out in huge “They are riding on popular sentiment which
numbers to vote in March. comes with popular culture. People are hooked
on to the nostalgia that Zimdancehall brings.
Observers say the Zimdancehall soundtrack Politicians realise that they cannot only connect
will become an important determinant in the with communities using artistes,” Mhako said.
2023 election as political parties look to engage
youths. He said desperation to pocket an extra cent
had exposed artistes to manipulative practices by
Zimdancehall, a localised sub-genre of the politicians.
Jamaican dancehall music, is performed in local
languages, mainly Shona. It has taken the music “Artistes are also hard hit and have no choice
scene by storm in the pat decade. but to join,” Mhako added.

While the artistes were once vilified as dis- He added that even those artistes or so-called
tracted and unfocused youngsters who chase celebrities who chose to remain neutral are often
illicit drugs, alcohol and easy money, they have dragged into the mire by political activists who
found themselves in the middle of a tug of war manipulate sentiment for political expediency.
between major political parties.
Taking a position is a double-edged sword as
At Zanu PF’s election campaign in Epworth history has not been kind to artistes who dare
two weeks ago, Zimdancehall chanters like DJ support political causes, particularly for the sta-
Fantan, Enzo Ishall and Uncle Epatan headlined tus quo.
President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s first election
rally. The history of Zimbabwean music is littered
with examples of careers cut short for supporting
Prior to the show, the cast of performers was certain controversial figures, with artistes living
advertised alongside Mnangagwa’s face, showing to rue their political choices.
their importance to the proceedings of the day.
“Despite the victimisation and cancel culture
Zanu PF sympathisers would go on to over- that wants to deter young people, it is going to
hype the involvement of the youthful chanters, be near-normal for artistes to support certain po-
stirring a tug of war on social media. litical persuasions,” Mhako said.

This would trigger a reaction from Citizens’ Until the Zimbabwean political landscape is
Coalition for Change (CCC) vice-president mature enough to appreciate individual political
Tendai Biti who rubbished the genre during an choices, artistes should tread with caution.
address in his constituency, Harare East.

Biti’s sentiments urging Zimbabweans to boy-
cott Chillspot, a popular Zimdancehall record-
ing stable, for performing at the Zanu PF rally,
received widespread vilification.

Zanu PF youth leader Tendai Chirau re-
sponded, saying: “You have all seen how Tendai
Biti is busy insulting harworking youths like DJ
Fantan and encouraging people not to listen to
his music. As Zanu PF we do not do that.”

True to Charles Kennedy’s assertion that: “I
do feel a sense of rhythm is important in getting
your message across,” Zimbabwean politicians
seem to have realised the power of this genre.

Last Sunday during the CCC election cam-
paign launch in Highfield, the music genre was
once again the centre of attraction, drawing wild
cheers. Dancehall chanter Ricky Firen, who had
in recent weeks publicly expressed support for
CCC, took to the stage.

Earlier that week, CCC supporters had
pledged to pay for another popular Zimdance-
hall singer, Judgement Yard and Seh Calaz,
setting up a GoFundMe to cover artiste perfor-
mance fees.

This shows how the genre has become a force
to reckon with on the political scene.

While Seh Calaz did not show up, Ricky Fire
performed for the gathered thousands, but he
was left fearing for his life after a shadowy char-
acter issued threats on social media.

During his performance, Ricky Fire was
joined by CCC president Nelson Chamisa,
drawing loud applause from the crowd.

“There is no freedom that you will be given by

NewsHawks News Page 13

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

Betty
Kaseke
(Zanu PF)

Johnson
Matambo (CCC)

MARY MUNDEYA In the race for Kuwadzana seat

BETTY Kaseke of Zanu PF, John Matambo of projects for women and young people. individuals, corporates, as well as like-minded she says.
the Citizens’ Coalition for Change (CCC), Da- “I formed the Kuwadzana Housing Associa- individuals outside and inside the constituency “There is nothing for Kuwadzana, without the
dirai Fatima Madamombe of the MDC-Alliance to expeditiously address the following; improved
and Nesbert Mapfumo of the United Democratic tion Trust so that I provide affordable housing to water supply, timeous refuse collection, overhauls Kuwadzana people. It’s important that we identi-
Alliance (UDA) party are battling it out for the home seekers. We located pieces of land through of sewage main lines, consistent power supply fy the need in our community and work together
Kuwadzana parliamentary seat in by-elections council which we are hoping will go a long way in and swift attendance to localised faults as well as to implement whatever solution we would have
slated for 26 March this year. solving the accommodation crisis we are currently road rehabilitation,” he said. agreed on,’’ she said.
having in the constituency,” Kaseke said.
The Harare seat fell vacant following the death “Ending of corruption in public offices in the Nesbert Mapfumo (UDA)
of MDC-Alliance legislator, then under the lead- Johnson Matambo (CCC) constituency such as the district office of the Reg- The Daniel Shumba-led United Democratic
ership of Nelson Chamisa in 2020. The 39-year-old Matambo is contesting for the istrar of Births and Deaths, clinics and schools Alliance party candidate Nesbert Mapfumo said
first time. He attended his primary schooling at will also be effected,” said Matambo. he is after making a difference for the good of the
The NewsHawks this week reached out to Kuwadzana 6 and moved to Gorge Stark and Dz- country.
the candidates vying for the seat as part of our ivaresekwa High School for his secondary school Dadirai Madamombe (MDC-Alliance) Mapfumo attended primary and secondary
by-election coverage: studies. Born on the 9 March 1960, the MDC-Alli- schooling at Shingirirai and George Stark respec-
His political journey began in 2001 when ance’s Dadirai Fatima Madamombe grew up in tively. He proceeded to acquire a marketing di-
Betty Kaseke (Zanu PF) he joined the then Movement for Democratic Seke rural village and later moved to Chivhu. ploma from Denmark College, as well as a higher
Zanu PF’s Betty Nhambu Kaseke (38) became Change (MDC) and ascended to become the She is a certified social worker who volunteers diploma in pastoral studies with the Harare Pas-
a member of Parliament for the same constituen- party’s secretary for security for Kuwadzana. with the ministry of Labour and Social Welfare. tors’ Institute.
cy through a by-election in 2015. However, she During the Government of National Unity Madamombe is passionate about human devel- He is an appointed Global Missions Team
lost the seat in the 2018 general elections but is (GNU), he served as one of the drivers for the opment and the upliftment of women, young World Evangelisation missionary in Zimbabwe.
hoping to reclaim it. then Information Communication Technology people and vulnerable groups. If elected to office, Mapfumo seeks to combat
Kaseke is known in the beauty industry for minister Nelson Chamisa. Her first attempt at becoming a member of corruption and create a society in which fairness
her love for modelling and pageantry. When she Prior to Chamisa rebranding and abandoning Parliament failed in 2013 during her party’s pri- and meritocracy are at the helm of everything.
was the Kuwadzana legislator, she introduced the the MDC-Alliance name and symbols, Matambo mary elections when she was defeated by Lucia “Corruption is Zimbabwe’s number one ene-
Miss Kuwadzana competition. was the Harare provincial youth department’s sec- Matibenga. She failed again in 2018. my and I seek to combat it at every level. I in-
She holds an honorary doctorate in business retary for welfare. If elected office, Madamombe hopes to unite tend to create a society where issues of merit, hard
leadership, honorary doctorate in human letters Matambo said if voted into office, he will en- the people of Kuwadzana. work, values and fairness are at the helm of my
from DHL International Institute of Philanthro- sure that there is efficient service delivery in Ku- “I want the people of Kuwadzana to unite as development agenda,” he said.
py (IIP) and an honorary masters of business wadzana and that corruption in the constituency one family, loving, supporting and caring for each “I’m promising the people of Kuwadzana hap-
leadership and enterprenuership degree from In- is dealt with. other. It’s better to empower people inclusively, piness, peace and sanctity of human life, trans-
ternational Women’s University (IWU). “In the usual cooperation of citizens of our mentally, socially and physically so that they can parency and accountable leadership, equal and
She is founder of the Kuwadzana Develop- great constituency, I shall collaborate with local stand up for themselves and stand for what they fair access to resources, youth empowerment and
ment Association, an organisation responsible for authorities, opinion leaders, progressive thinking believe in. Only then can an area be developed,” poverty reduction.”
all the projects Betty has done in the constituency.
If elected, she hopes to provide housing for
home seekers through the Kuwadzana Housing
Association Trust and initiate income-generating

Dadirai
Madamombe
(MDC-Alliance)

Nesbert
Mapfumo

(UDA)

Page 14 News NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

MORRIS BISHI Chilonga community vows
to resist murky grass project
COMMUNITY leaders in the Chilonga area of
Chiredzi district have raised concerns over the Chilonga villagers face eviction.
way the government and Dendairy (Pvt) Ltd Dendairy (Pvt) Ltd and the government of Zimbabwe are holding consultative meetings to set up a lucerne grass project in Chiredzi.
are holding consultative meetings ahead of the
setting up of a lucerne grass project, which vil-
lagers have been resisting.

Two weeks ago, the government and Den-
dairy, which is the investor, launched consul-
tative meetings with villagers, many of whom
will be evicted to pave way for the setting up
of lucerne plantations covering 5 000 hectares
while the project area is expected to be 12 000
hectares.

On 26 February 2021, the government gaz-
zetted Statutory Instrument 50 of 2021 setting
aside a piece of land covering 12 940 hectares of
land in Chiredzi district to pave way for what
was initially described simply as a lucerne pro-
duction project. The statutory instrument went
on to order the immediate eviction of the occu-
piers and users of that land. On the same date,
the government gazetted Statutory Instrument
51 of 2021, which declared that the area had
ceased to be communal land.

This was followed by the gazzetting of Statu-
tory Instrument 63A of 2021 that later changed
the purpose of the setting aside of the land from
lucerne production to the establishment of an
irrigation scheme.

In a petition read by The NewsHawks writ-
ten by all community leaders and addressed to
the minister of Local Government, minister of
Lands, Chiredzi district development coordina-
tor and Chiredzi Rural District Council chief
executive officer, village heads from the area
said they are not happy that the person who
was tasked to approach them was an ordinary
citizen who is not a community leader, raising
concern over the government’s hidden motive
behind the project.

They said the ruling by Justice Joseph Ma-
fusire which dismissed their court case against
displacement clearly stated that those who will
be evicted will be compensated revealed that the
narrative being preached by the investor that no
evictions will take place meant that the consul-
tative process is not being held in good faith.

“We are reliably informed that a delegation
from the ministry of Local Government had a
meeting with July Guvele in which the latter
was tasked to call a meeting for village heads.
Guvele is neither a village head nor a chief. He
is also not a councillor and does not hold any
known leadership position in the community.

“We are therefore wondering why the gov-
ernment is calling for a village heads’ meeting
through this individual,” the traditional leaders
complained.

“There is no certainty or clarity as to which
specific areas are likely going to be affected by
the proposed irrigation scheme. We have tried
several times to access the map mentioned in
Statutory Instrument 50 of 2021, but we have
been failing.

“The government through the District Devel-
opment Coordinator’s office invited four village
heads per ward to a consultation meeting when
in actual fact there are 20 village heads per ward,
raising questions about the criteria used to select
the four leaders.” part of the petition reads.

Chiredzi district development coordinator
Lovemore Chisema told The NewsHawks that
he is yet to see the petition since he was out of
office.

However, he said the consultative meetings
will continue once his work schedule permits.

“I am not aware of that petition. I am cur-
rently seized with other issues outside the office
l will check with my office if someone received
it. We held the first consultation meeting with
traditional leaders two weeks ago and we will
continue with the meetings when l am settled as
l am currently working on other issues,” Chise-
ma said.

Chiredzi Rural District Council chief exec-
utive officer Ailes Baloyi told The NewsHawks
that he was not aware of the petition despite
having his stamp on the petition as acknowl-
edgement.

A traditional leader from Chilonga told The
NewsHawks that despite the consultative pro-
cess, the community is determined to resist the
move to set up the grass project in their area. He
said the authorities and the investor are not fur-
nishing them with all details about the project,
which means they are hiding their real motive.

NewsHawks News Page 15

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

Threats won’t work, teachers tell Mnangagwa

Morale remains very low among Zimbabwean teachers.

AYESHA CHIDEMBO she said. PTUZ president Takavafira Zhou look for money by doing this or that. Now
“We are suffering and have nothing left, but good. A lot has changed, our hearts are not these threats are adding to our problems as we
AFTER years of haggling between teachers and up for what we signed for as teachers, to serve thought dialogue was the only way out for us
the government, the authorities are issuing fresh only hope that things will work out for our the country and all we spend time doing is to and the government.”
threats of dismissed if educators continue with
their ongoing industrial action. Farirai Museki- A snap survey by The NewsHawks revealed
wa (59) says she will grudgingly comply and at- that teachers have been reporting for duty and
tend class at her school in Epworth, near Harare, working in the wake of threats by Mnangagwa
just to avoid the potentially nasty repercussions. and the PSC — but morale remains very low.

Musekiwa says this will be done to protect Progressive Teachers’ Union of Zimbabwe
her job that is on the line following a chilling (PTUZ) president Takavafira Zhou said the
warning by President Emmerson Mnangagwa forcing of distraught teachers to report for duty
and the Public Service Commission (PSC) that by the PSC was a waste of time.
teachers, deputy school heads and heads who
continue to absent themselves from class citing “Command-and-control tactics do not capac-
incapacitation will be deemed to have resigned if itate teachers. Government would do better by
they did not show up by February 22. investing in binding collective bargaining and
social dialogue that bring industrial harmony
The PSC was not done with its threats, add- and productivity. Sticking to an archaic, rusty
ing that those who report for duty but will not and moribund Statutory Instrument 141 of
be teaching will also suffer the same fate while 1997, when we now have section 65 of the con-
those in government houses will immediately be stitution is not only ludicrous hallucination of
chucked out. the worst order, but also puzzling,” Zhou said.

According to the PSC, unemployed trained “Ordering teachers to report for work and
teachers, university and college graduates in the providing a panacea to challenges faced by
sciences, engineering, technical, vocational areas teachers are two different things. Unless govern-
and other disciplines interested in joining the ment provide US$540, there will be no mean-
teaching profession should register at the nearest ingful teaching and learning in schools.”
district education offices as the recruitment pro-
cess will begin soon. Amalgamated Rural Teachers’ Union of Zim-
babwe (ARTUZ) president Obert Masaraure
But Musekiwa, with over two decades’ experi- said his organisation on Sunday filed an urgent
ence in public service as a teacher, says although High Court application challenging the PSC
the government’s threats will force teachers to go move, arguing it was unconstitutional.
to work, they will neither be silenced nor give
100% effort, and this will affect the students. “The teachers will not be bullied by the un-
grateful employer. They will stay home until
“It’s so sad that we as teachers cannot even grievances are addressed. The solution to the in-
help ourselves even though everyone knows the capacitation crisis is genuine dialogue between
money is not enough for our needs. We have employer and employee and such dialogue
families who look up to us and we cannot cope,” should lead to the restoration of pre-October
2018 salaries for teachers,” he said.

Page 16 News NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

Nurses flee Bulawayo clinics in droves

LIZWE SEBATHA In May 2021, the Local Government ministry ers, without written permission from the minister. manding better salaries under new proposed
approved a council request to fill as many as 400 The local authority has also attributed the fail- amendments to the Health Services Act.
BULAWAYO City Council clinics are now largely vacant posts, including nursing slots, but indica-
manned by locum nurses — inexperienced nurses tions are that this has done little to stabilise the ure to attend to service delivery issues such as sew- Under the changes, worker representatives
hired on a temporary basis — as the local author- staffing requirements. er and water pipe bursts on staff shortages. who face charges of inciting nurses and doctors to
ity struggles to fill vacant posts after the resigna- embark on strike action deemed illegal could be
tion of experienced medical professionals. Bulawayo deputy mayor Mlandu Ncube con- This comes amid claims that council clinics are jailed for three years in what the authorities argue
firmed that there is a staffing level concern as operating with a nurse staffing establishment of is necessary to instil discipline in the health sector.
Council has not been spared the mass resigna- nurses search for greener pastures. the 1970s when there was no HIV or tuberculosis
tion of health workers, many of whom have been (TB) burden to deal with, a situation now com- In 2018, Health and Child Care minister Con-
leaving the country particularly to the United In 2010, the government through section 313 promising the delivery of health services. stantino Chiwenga, who is also Vice-President,
Kingdom after that country relaxed visa regimes of the Urban Councils Act declared that no local made news after he took the unusual step of ex-
for medical personnel. authority may employ any staff members at any In government, the Health and Child Care pelling 16 000 striking nurses, vowing to replace
level or grade, including casual or contract work- ministry has been introducing tough measures them with newly-trained and retired nurses.
Government hospitals have been hard hit by to stop health workers from going on strike de-
resignations, resulting in the Health ministry
introducing a number of measures such as with-
holding their certificates of good standing which
are required when searching for work abroad.

The Nurses and Midwives’ Council of Zim-
babwe (NMCZ) has said nurses who intend to
leave the country must also satisfy all statutory re-
quirements, including mandatory bonding, after
the institution was flooded with requests for the
clearance certificates.

In Bulawayo, council clinics were already re-
portedly operating at less than 50% nurse staff-
ing capacity. The mass resignations have left the
health centres worse off, according to confidential
council minutes of the health department.

“STAFF SITUATION AT CLINICS:- The
Director of Health Services (Edwin Sibanda) re-
ported (January, 6, 2022) that there was a critical
shortage of nursing staff at the clinics. Nurses had
continued to resign monthly with 45 nurses hav-
ing been lost through natural attrition (resigned,
retired or died). Clinics had continued to utilise
locum staff that had less experience,” the report
reads.

Dr Sibanda on Wednesday confirmed the
nurses’ exodus.

“It is critical, but I do not have the figures off-
hand,” he said when contacted.

FORMER Kwekwe mayor Angeline Kasipo says Operational challenges a headache for
the operational challenges faced by most urban opposition councillors: Former mayor
local authorities in the country are particularly
challenging for opposition councillors. However, Kasipo, who was Kwekwe’s first fe- Former Kwekwe mayor Angeline Kasipo Kasipo further said the country’s underper-
male mayor, said despite these challenges coun- es, councillors are getting in councils without forming economy is also making service delivery
Speaking in an interview, she said while oppo- cillors still have a role to play. knowing what they are exactly supposed to be very difficult.
sition councillors can make a difference in coun- doing. This, therefore, compromises on service
cils, issues such as red tape, government interfer- “For the councillors to effectively deliver on delivery. Councillors themselves must also fur- “We cannot expect local authorities to per-
ence in local government and general opposition their mandate we have to equip them at par- ther upgrade themselves so that they will be able form miracles when the country’s economy is
councillors’ lack of preparedness to effectively ty level and at council level. In most instanc- to hold those in power to account,” she said. not performing. The country’s underperforming
deliver on their mandate are hampering service economy is also reflected at local government
delivery. level. Residents are failing to pay rates, which has
led to most local authorities failing to collect rev-
She added that in its present state the Urban enue which is way less than the projected figures.
Councils Act gives too much power to the Lo- This, therefore, makes service delivery to suffer,”
cal Government minister, rendering councillors she said.
powerless.
She added that by taking over the adminis-
“The operating environment at the councils tration of road authorities in towns and cities,
is very difficult. This is because most of the local central government is now presiding over a poor
authorities are being led by opposition council- road infrastructure as the authorities are not dis-
lors hence the government is setting them up for bursing Zimbabwe National Roads Administra-
failure. The Urban Councils Act in its present tion funds on time.
state is giving too much power to the Local Gov-
ernment minister hence making it difficult for At the same time, aged infrastructure, much
opposition-led councils to effectively deliver,” of it constructed during the colonial era, and a
she said. population bulge in urban areas, have not helped
matters.
Among the key issues Kasipo highlighted as
signifying tge excessive powers of the Local Gov- “We need a complete overhaul of our aged
ernment minister is the issue of recruitment. infrastructure as most of the infrastructure was
constructed during the colonial period and has
“On recruitment, we only recommend the outlived its usefulness. In addition, growing
names of the three prospective candidates to population in the Urban areas is further putting
the Local Government Board. We don’t employ, pressure on the infrastructure.
then it's up to the Local Government board to
continue with our recommendations or disre- “Further, the policies which are currently be-
gard them. Mind you, the Local Government ing used in most local authorities are not in sync
Board is constituted by the Local Government with modern demands for urban areas. Most of
minister. Therefore, the choice of someone to be these policies date back to the 1950s and that
the councils CEO is mainly partisan. These indi- must change,” she said.
viduals will not be serving on behalf of residents
but at the pleasure of the minister,” she said. Kasipo, who is eyeing a council return, said
lack of resources from central government has
Kasipo said councillors do not have any pow- made it very difficult for local authorities to fully
er in recruiting council staff or even effecting a function.
people-centred budget.
“There are no resources and this makes service
In addition, Kasipo explained that councillors delivery suffer,” she said. — STAFF WRITER
have no powers to set an agenda in their respec-
tive council committee meetings, but instead
this is done by respective heads of department.
It renders futile any effort to consult residents
or other fellow councillors on important issues
affecting local communities.

NewsHawks News Page 17

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

MPs demand transparency on road fund

MOSES MATENGA that steps should not be taken, but if Speaking on the sidelines of the wa confirmed yesterday that the city rehabilitation as it was a pittance.
a crime is committed there should be Tuesday event at Zinara headquarters, received over ZW$1.4 billion that he “We received our allocation for
MEMBERS of Parliament have called prosecution.” acting Harare mayor Stewart Mutiz- said did not do much by way of road
for transparency from local authorities 2021 and it was around ZW$1.4 bil-
in how they spend billions of dollars lion and it is not much and can’t tell
allocated to them by the Zimbabwe off head how much it covers. It was
National Road Administration (Zina- mainly for pothole patching. We are
ra), saying those found wanting must now waiting for 2022 and they have
be arrested. promised around ZW$2.8 billion but
the roads we have covered were mainly
The calls come after Zinara on Tues- drainage clearance and pothole patch-
day said it will disburse more than ing. Even the uniforms you see written
ZW$17 billion for road works this RRP were bought by the Zinara mon-
year to local authorities to rehabilitate ey,” he said.
roads in a deplorable state.
According to Ziyambi, it is the re-
Shurugwi North MP Ronald sponsibility of local authorities to hire
Nyathi asked the government during a contractors and prudently manage the
question-and-answer session in Parlia- resources availed for road rehabilita-
ment on Wednesday why roads across tion while some MPs suggested that
the country were in a sorry state de- the monitoring and evaluation of the
spite revelation by Zinara that it was projects be done by Zinara.
pouring billions of dollars into reha-
bilitation. Asked how much road rehabilita-
tion the ZW$17 billion for 59 local
“The Zinara chairman, (Dr) George authorities availed by Zinara would
Manyaya indicated that in 2021, there cover and how much a kilometre of
was a disbursement of Z$9 billion to road would cost to resurface, Zina-
different local authorities but he also ra technical services director Moses
indicated that two weeks from now Chigonyati said the cost of rehabili-
there will be an allocation of Z$17 tating roads differs, depending on the
billion. My question is that since the amount of work that needs to be done.
funds disbursed last year to local au-
thorities were not utilised properly, “It depends on many factors, in-
what steps is government going to cluding the surface you will be work-
take to make sure that these monies ing on. Costs are also determined by
are going to be used properly in road your design of the surface. It will also
rehabilitation programmes in different depend on the thickness, but what is
cities and towns?” Nyathi asked. important to note is that we are not in
construction of new roads but preserv-
Mberengwa East MP Marko Raidza ing the roads that are already there,”
also asked why Zinara was not consid- Chigonyati said.
ering introducing a monitoring and
evaluation department to ensure ev-
erything was being done properly by
the local authorities.

“Is it not fit for Zinara to have an-
other department which concentrates
on monitoring and evaluation of all
the jobs they have done for rehabili-
tation to make sure that everything is
being done properly?” he asked.

Raidza said the residents who were
supposed to benefit from the road re-
habilitation programmes end up not
benefitting, amid suspicions of cor-
ruption by the councils.

Justice minister Ziyambi Ziyambi,
who is also the leader of government
business in Parliament, said it was crit-
ical to capacitate local authorities in
dealing with public funds and those
who will be found on the wrong of the
law must be arrested.

Ziyambi also said it was not the
responsibility of Zinara to provide
monitoring and evaluation as its sole
mandate was to mobilise funds for the
rehabilitation of roads.

“It is not Zinara’s job to look for
engineers and doing monitoring and
evaluation. Hence, councils must be
capacitated so that they can execute
their jobs properly. The ministry of
Transport must have a department
for monitoring and evaluation so that
Zinara can continue to mobilise funds
for the rehabilitation of roads.”

On suspicions local authorities may
be looting or diverting the Zinara
funds, Ziyambi said: “If there are no
concerns and at times there might not
be any pilfering of money but there
will not be a proper reconciliation,
then there is no need for prosecuting
people if there is no crime.

When a crime is committed and
when people have stolen money, then
legal action is taken. I did not say

Page 18 News NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

THOUSANDS of Citizens’ Coalition for We are putting citizens at the
Change (CCC) supporters were at the Zimba- centre of everything: Chamisa
bwe Grounds in Highfield, Harare, for the new
opposition party’s inaugural rally addressed by
its leader Nelson Chamisa. The rally was Cha-
misa’s first since he lost the MDC-Alliance, the
party headquarters and had his members of
Parliament and councillors recalled by Douglas
Mwonzora following the March 2020 Supreme
Court ruling. The NewsHawks’ Moses Maten-
ga (MM) spoke to Chamisa (NC) on the new
party, its ideology, alleged internal rifts and the
crisis in Zimbabwe, among several other issues:

MM: For someone who politically lost almost CCC leader Nelson Chamisa . . . The people’s quest for change is not for sale.
everything since March 2020, what went through
your mind as you walked to thousands of your sheer numbers on Sunday. That stoic determina- elections? in abject poverty, with the government seemingly
supporters for the first time after all the troubles? tion to attend the rally against all odds, to over- NC: Reforms must happen. Elections must turning a blind eye and even threatening to fire
take brutality and all state impediments thrown them in their numbers. What is your position
NC: I gave glory to God and felt so humbled their way, is bountiful testament to the fact that be free and fair. There is just no debate on this. regarding the welfare of civil servants in general
by the citizens’ emotional, emphatic and eloquent the citizens are pursuing their adversary and they But on account of Zec’s professional deficiencies, as the CCC?
endorsement. My Christian faith has taught me will recover their all next year. absence of probity and deficit of professional in-
that mortal man can never impede God’s sover- dependence, Zec has fertilised vote cynicism and NC: Civil servants are citizens first. My mes-
eign plans for a people whose liberation is immi- No one at that rally was paid any money as skepticism rendering citizens despondent. Their sage is that I know your predicament and your
nent. they do in other political parties, no market wom- handling of the voter registration process and incapacitation. And if there was political will, I
en were forcibly coerced, no one was bused or controversy around the voters’ roll is a cause for know government would have dealt with your
What God wants to happen will always hap- transported and most of those citizens walked to concern. legitimate concerns by giving you a living wage,
pen, regardless of the schemes, plots and conspir- that venue of their own volition to make a strong which you deserve. You are incapacitated. But
acies of mortal men and women. When I saw that statement. Zec has a constitutional obligation to conduct we are collectively capacitated to deal with these
determined crowd, I simply said this is it and the free, fair and credible polls. That is their sole issues. Just that there is no government willing-
day that the Lord has made, the day that the citi- We are almost there and 2023 will definitely be remit. They don't have to be stampeded to exe- ness to do so. The only willingness and appetite
zens have welcomed our ‘citizen first’ and ‘citizens the Year of the Citizens’ Victory. cute their constitutional mandate, but if they are in government is to fight and repress citizens, to
at the centre’ philosophy. Citizen-centred politics yearning to be so stampeded, then the citizens will loot and pursue luxuries. But don’t worry, your
is the new trajectory. MM: Coalitions are winning elections across gladly do so within the parameters of the national problems will be history in a few months’ time,
Africa and the world over. In the Zimbabwean constitution. after the next election. We will fix your night-
For me, the cardinal lesson of that day is that context, are you likely to unite with other opposi- mares, care for your needs and restore your digni-
while some among us are purchasable, the endur- tion parties and other so-called democratic forces MM: There have been fears of infiltration of ty. Check our record in the inclusive government.
ing and unstinting desire for transformation in ahead of the 2023 elections? the opposition and now, with the new outfit, are And you know we do it so well. We are tried and
this country has no price. The people’s quest for you not afraid it has been infiltrated already and tested in that area. We deliver.
change is not for sale. It is that cardinal truth that NC: We are the next government in Zimba- how to you hope to deal with that?
a people’s collective desire cannot be bought; that bwe, a citizens’ government. Let me restate that MM: The government is crafting laws observ-
showcased itself that historic Sunday afternoon. the citizen agency is the currency of our new pol- NC: You can’t cut a giant baobab tree using a ers said were targeted at opposition actors and civ-
itics. CCC is a coalition of citizens for change. It razor blade. We are indomitable. They may try il society. What is your position on the proposed
MM: You now have what you call a complete- is a convergence and coalition of citizens and not and think they have infiltrated us but the collec- Patriotic Bill and the Private Voluntary Organisa-
ly new party, the Citizens’ Coalition for Change a coalition of political institutions. Just being a tive power and aspirations of an entire citizenry tions (PVOs) Bill?
(CCC). What does the party signify in Zimba- Zimbabwean citizen is the qualification to be part are not going to be stopped by one or two pur-
bwean politics and was it not tantamount to con- of our new brand of exciting politics. So ours is chased souls. Some such purchased souls recent- NC: I see all these as signs and symptoms of
ceding defeat from those who successfully fought a coalition or an alliance of ordinary citizens and ly showed their true colors and they disgorged desperation. And it’s not just about Chamisa.
for the control of the party you previously led? not political confederations. themselves from a determined people’s tenacious When everyone is an enemy to you, then you are
march to their destiny. By the time we reach Ca- the worst enemy. My brother ED sees an enemy
NC: CCC is a turning point in modern poli- MM: You have expressed reservations with the naan next year, the citizens' movement will be in everyone: in Chamisa, in the citizens, in the war
tics. It puts the citizens, and not the politicians, Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (Zec) and in- highly purified. veterans, in workers, the church, in civil servants,
at the centre of all political decision, policy and sisted that reforms are needed before elections are in PVOs, in vendors, in journalists, in the doctors,
law-making. We are a new, fresh, modern and held. Are you positive that Zec will be reformed MM: Civil servants have declared incapacita-
radically different citizens’ project, not a rebrand- before the polls and conduct free, fair and credible tion while the military and police are also living
ed or repackaged toxic old.

Everyone is a champion and a leader until we
have substantive elected positions. All positions
are up for contest when we then choose leaders.
CCC is the natural home for all citizens, home
to everyone.

The citizen has been peripheralised over the
years, particularly in this country. Whether that
citizen is a civil servant, an army officer, a villager
or an orphan, they have all not mattered in gov-
ernment’s decision-making matrix.

Leadership has always been about looting and
power retention by the leaders. We must consign
such leadership-centred politics to the dustbin
and restore the citizen to their rightful place at the
centre, nay at the fulcrum of the decision-making
matrix.

You shall see from our New Great Zimbabwe
Promise policy blueprint and the Citizens' Char-
ter that the citizen is at the epicentre of all our
political transactions. Our policies and manifesto
will talk to Citizen Health, Citizen Education,
Citizen Welfare and Benefits, Citizen Dignity
and other citizen-centred dictums.

MM: You spoke of congress, when is the party
going to have its congress given reports that there
is currently no structure to talk about?

NC: We are a citizens’ movement. We do not
advise our opponents on our next steps, but the
citizens know because they drive the process.
Nothing teaches better than history and nothing
educates better than experience. We have learnt
that we have infiltrators and we cannot always
whisper strategies into the ear of those who stand
opposed to us. The citizens are driving the pro-
cesses. We are so excited.

MM: A lot happened to you and the party you
represented in the last two years. What is your re-
flection of all that has happened and where you
are now?

NC: Indeed, we have lost all except ourselves.
The robbery has been a blessing in disguise. We
are now new. The chaff is gone. God told David,
‘You shall pursue, overtake and recover all’. We
shall recover our all that has been taken away from
us. And it is not me making that statement but
the citizens themselves.

And indeed, they made their statement by their

NewsHawks News Page 19

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

in social media users, in artistes and even in school saw the one in a ZimGold box, some just waved instead of him accepting that rigging is not enter- of all decision-making. We believe in an ethical
children and their parents. They see enemies in yellow shoes and bananas and it shows the revolu- tained, he is saying if we rig, we will defend our- state, ethical business, ethical market upon ethical
every sector of the country’s citizenry. That is tion is unstoppable. You cannot fight people and selves. It shows his bad attitude to our country. and inclusive society.
why they are crafting laws against everyone. They win. People walked, we did not provide transport Let us respect the people and the people have a
know their days are numbered and they are now for them. Everything you saw was a product of right to protest. He chooses to be my spokesper- Our philosophy is citizens’ consensus for
in panic mode. Great nations are not built on per- the citizens’ sacrifice, both in the diaspora and lo- son, I don’t need him as my spokesperson, I don’t transformation. Our persuasion is driven by the
secutions and suspicion against the citizenry who cally but more in the diaspora. need an interpreter, I don’t need a message mes- transformation consensus. The transformation
are the sole turbines to unleash and pivot a nation senger. Zimbabwe can only be built when people consensus is a continuation and validation of
into greatness. In the 2023 plebiscite, the citizens MM: What is your reaction to issues of intim- trade ideas, not insults and exchange thoughts, both the liberation consensus and the democratic
want change. And change is coming. It can no idation, arbitrary arrests of your supporters and not this dross and propaganda. consensus.
longer be denied or delayed. It’s time. This time many others by the regime and don’t you think
we will not accept any funny games, rigging or that will scuttle your mobilisation because of the MM: Zimbabweans in South Africa and be- That is our embedded ideological disposition,
any other such uncharitable tomfoolery. fear factor? yond are yearning to come home while others our central doctrine driven by our revolutionary
are under attack in different countries. In your theory. Theory defines a trajectory, but practice
MM: How has the new party been received in NC: We are unstoppable and unshakable. Dic- view, what is the lasting solution in addressing benchmarks the achievement of that.
the Sadc region as it is yet to speak on its policies tatorships never learn from their predecessor’s the plight of desperate Zimbabweans across the
on international relations and all? failed templates. The world over, all dictators globe? Leadership must have an anchor. The change
seem to have a hymn sheet they sing from. (Ian) must be embedded in citizens and a trajectory
NC: We are so excited. The new is reverberat- Smith did this to the citizens during the liberation NC: The so-called immigration crisis is not agreed upon by the citizens.
ing across the African continent. We have a Glob- struggle. This is what is now being done by the in- an immigration crisis, it is a Zimbabwean gov-
al Advocacy for Change and Democracy Cam- cumbent, but the moment the regime starts fight- ernance crisis. The only thing we have to do is We will articulate in fuller detail on that at the
paign. We are providing leadership. The most ing citizens, then its end is near. It is not sustain- to help fix Zimbabwe, let the region help to fix right time, but whatever we do and stand for is
important thing is mobilising our brothers and able to suppress people and it means their days are Zimbabwe by ensuring the holding of free and about restoration and reclamation of citizens’ dig-
sisters on the African continent for continental numbered and, ultimately, repression will have to fair elections, respect for the rule of law, indepen- nity, authority and rights. Everything is centred
and regional solidarity. We are focusing on these give in. These are signs of the times and they are dence of key institutions, including commissions on the citizens.
two pillars of the strategy, which is the regional showing they have learnt nothing and forgotten like Zec and ensuring an independent judiciary. If
and continental solidarity. nothing. Zimbabwe is ready for change and that all this is sorted, if Zimbabwe’s dignity is restored, MM: We have heard reports of fights in the
hunger can never be satisfied through repression. they will never see any Zimbabwean in South Af- cockpit and confusion on the state of cohesion
We believe in African solutions to African The demand for change cannot be postponed. All rica or any country as economic refugees. We are among leaders of the CCC and you are said to
challenges. There is no problem too big beyond they are doing, their determination to oppress, is ready to make Zimbabwe the most hospitable in have dissolved the whole leadership and your crit-
our capacity to solve as Africans anchored on pro- met by an equal determination and resilience to the region and provide sanctuary to others. ics say this is confirmation of that rift. What is the
moting dignity and rights. Governments in Africa resist. position?
must honour and respect a greater government, Our dignity is eroded by politicians destroying
the citizens, who are the ultimate government of MM: President Emmerson Mnangagwa on our key attributes as a nation. We will fix that and NC: Which cockpit? You are thoroughly mis-
all governments. Monday threatened you in many ways and dared it is the simplest thing to fix. We have resources, taken and misconceived on that one. When there
you to mount protests against Zec and accused smart, hardworking people, excellent climate and is no structure, how do you dissolve anything?
MM: You also lost the funding allocated to the you of inciting teachers. What do you make of everything. Our education system can be resus- How do you dissolve nothing? The MDC-Al-
opposition parties under the Political Parties (Fi- such threats? citated and all we need to do is to fix the lead- liance is our history and you can’t resurrect the
nance) Act despite you getting the numbers in the ership issue. We have everything in this country dead. Do not resurrect the MDC-Alliance dis-
2018 elections. The CCC is said to be struggling NC: Threats never build nations. We must except leadership. The good thing is we have it course, it’s our history.
financially to finance its programmes and mount trade ideas, not threats and insults. We must ex- (the leadership) in the alternative and we are ready
a strong challenge to Zanu PF that has millions change thought, not dross or junk. What is clear to provide it. We have just formed a new movement, so
of dollars at its disposal, including state resources. and what is good is that as a citizen, Mr Mnan- which structure are you saying has been dissolved
What is the position on the funding of the CCC? gagwa is following what we are doing but the sad MM: What is your position in terms of ideolo- when there is nothing? Structures are a creature
thing he is not paying attention to detail. He is gy as a new party? of legal processes and for now we have just intro-
NC: One thing Zimbabweans are excited not listening attentively, he distorted what was duced the party. We are yet to have the national
about is that we are different from the “chinhu said. The whole nation listened to what we said NC: There is no action without a theory. launch. I am the caretaker change champions'
chinevene vacho” Zanu PF mentality and we are on inviting investors to Zimbabwe. It is him There can never be development or transforma- leader and all others in the team hold caretaker
articulating a new philosophy that speaks to cit- who said Zimbabwe is open for business when it tion without a philosophy. We believe in prac- positions. We are starting from afresh. Do not
izens being owners, authors and drivers of their is actually shut for business. His business means tical communitarian and utilitarian democracy conflate the past with the future, the old and the
own destiny. We are so excited and it shows Zim- removing people from Chilonga in Chiredzi, in that delivers the greatest wellbeing to the greatest new. I was leader of the MDC-Alliance which was
babweans united can solve anything. We have a Mutoko, in Tugwi-Mukosi — and are the people numbers. We believe that our first duty, primary controversially taken away and we have a new kid
resilient citizen at the centre of all this. Do you be- doing that local? Propaganda has destroyed this accountability and ultimate obligation is to the on the block together with other change champi-
lieve that at the Zimbabwe Grounds, everything country. citizens, the people we lead and serve. Our pol- ons. Some people see confusion or division where
was catered for by the citizens? We did not buy itics and policies are centrally tethered on citizens. there is none. Do not put the cart before the
anything, even the T-shirts. Some were even in- I talk about turning the streets yellow on ac- horse. They say so and so has this position. Who
novative enough to put on cardboard boxes, if you count of the people’s constitutional rights and We are clear on our beliefs. Our idea is an- gave them that position? Everyone is a change
chored on ‘citizens first’ and ‘citizens at the centre’ champion as we build the new glorious citizens'
movement.

Page 20 News NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

FLORENCE TARUVINGA (FT), broke the ZCTU will lobby for US
glass ceiling when she was elected Zimbabwe dollar salaries: Taruvinga
Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) president
in October, beating Peter Mutasa after poll- effort to reconnect with our affiliate trade unions tence of the TNF Act, everything else is rendered blind eye on the uneven balances.
ing 73 votes to his 59, thereby becoming the and their membership. We have embarked on useless. It is the mandate of my leadership to en- NH: Formal employment has also been drasti-
first woman to lead the labour movement. countrywide labour forums, where we took the sure that workers start to earn in US dollars, as it
Taruvinga is a member of the Energy Sector opportunity to meet with shopfloor workers, dis- is the only currency of value in the country at the cally going down and, in the process, affecting la-
Workers’ Union of Zimbabwe (ESWUZ). Her trict and regional structures. present moment. Business has rejected the local bour activism in the country. How do you intend
rise was controversial though, as she was ac- currency, and the government is following suit, it to address this gap?
cused of leading a ZCTU faction aligned to The meetings we conducted around the coun- is therefore our considered position that workers
Zanu PF, which was allegedly bankrolled by try gave us enough firepower to fuel and direct should not continue to be paid in a non-existent FT: Our view as labour is that the government
businessman Kuda Tagwirei. The NewsHawks the workers’ struggle towards achievement of de- currency. We are intending to intensify our efforts needs to create a conducive environment for both
(NH) caught up with Taruvinga and asked her cent work, better working conditions and the US for dialogue to achieve that intention. In the event local and international investment. Unfortunately
about the alleged Zanu PF links, as well as her dollar-based salaries. We have also engaged with that it fails, we will certainly move to campaigns in a country fraught with policy inconsistencies
gameplan in addressing a plethora of chllenges employers and government, just to touch base on that will ensure that we get that which the work- most investors would shy away from risking and
affecting workers. She denies being a Zanu PF the fast deteriorating social and economic condi- ers are demanding for. investing their capital.
pawn. Below is the interview: tions in the country.
As guided by our ZCTU congress resolutions, There is a need to set our principles right. Most
NH: Congratulations on being voted the To sum it all up, in the past few months, we, as we intend to push for the finalisation of labour investors would be interested in investing in a
ZCTU president? the workers’ leadership, have noted that we need law reform, as well as its realignment with the country that respects labour laws and promotes
to roll up our sleeves and get to do real work be- country’s constitution. social dialogue processes. If these are not respected
FT: In the workers’ struggle there are no con- cause the issues that confront the working class and not in place, it would be difficult to attract
gratulations. What we say is that the struggle con- are huge, but not insurmountable. With enough NH: The general populace feels that they have any meaningful investment.
tinues. The ZCTU conference elevated me from political will, Zimbabwe can be great again. suffered enough due to poor salaries. What is your
being the first vice-president to become the presi- take on this outcry and what do you intend to do? We are losing a lot of members going into the
dent of ZCTU. I am grateful for that, as that will NH: As the new leader, what are your priorities informal economy, it is our call to the government
give me leverage in pursuing the workers’ man- in the coming five years? FT: Indeed, we agree with our members that that it should recognise the informal economy and
date with the clarity that it deserves. the salaries have become a mere pittance to work- also move towards assisting and providing policy
FT: As the president of ZCTU you must note ers. Being a worker, l feel the pain. With my sal- support for the growth of the informal economy.
NH: You are the first female president. How that l do not operate in isolation of our policies, ary, l am unable to make ends meet and l believe In our case, the informal economy has become
did you manage to break new ground? strategic plan and other policy guidelines. that is the situation with the majority of workers the economy. It is therefore imperative that the
in this country. Our proposal is to go for dollarisa- government and, in particular, local governments,
FT: The ZCTU is an equal opportunity organ- It is, however, my wish and that of my general tion in an effort to restore the purchasing power of be prepared to harness the low-hanging fruits by
isation, where we focus more on merit and clarity council to improve relations that exist between workers which has been lost from October 2018. supporting and capacitating the informal econo-
in pursuing the collective working class agenda. employers, government and workers. In our view, Our demand to employers and government is for my rather than to be fighting never-ending battles
this can be achieved through honest and frank restoration of workers’ salaries to the levels and with workers in the informal economy.
My election and elevation as the first female discussions, as far as identifying impediments to currency which existed in October 2018. Our de-
president of the trade union organisation are am- national development and growth for our coun- mand is based on the firm belief that the economy NH: The ZCTU played a pivotal role in the
ple evidence that the organisation has come of age try. can afford to meet that demand. formation of the political opposition in Zimba-
and it practices what it preaches. As an organisa- bwe. But we have witnessed countless breakaways
tion we believe in gender equity and equality. It is our wish to see the Tripartite Negotiating Presently, business is charging the prices of from the original MDC. So which side is labour
Forum discussing and recommending issues to goods and commodities in US dollars while pay- backing?
Workers this time around decided to give the cabinet that go beyond rhetoric. Currently, the ing workers in bond notes. The contradiction it-
opportunity to a woman comrade because wom- TNF Act does not bind the cabinet to accept self is worrisome, with the government turning a FT: The ZCTU is an independent trade union
en are known as peace builders, fighters, unifi- recommendations of the TNF, and that in itself organisation that is controlled and guided inter-
ers, consistent and, above all, are determined to requires serious redress, because besides the exis- nally by its affiliates. The affiliates who make up
achieve no matter the obstacles. ZCTU do not organise workers along partisan
politics. Workers are free and are encouraged to
NH: Can you share with us your brief back- belong to any political parties of their choice.
ground?
As a trade union we are very much interested
FT: l am a young working woman aged 33, in seeing the political manifestos of all the polit-
employed by Zesa. In 2010, I organised the young ical parties. Our interests stem from the fact that
workers in the energy industry on the importance we do not have permanent friends, but we have
of joining trade unions and making them know permanent interests.
of workers’ rights. In 2012, I pioneered in regis-
tration of ESWUZ union and organised in all re- We will encourage workers to support a polit-
gions recruiting members. In 2013, I was trained ical party that identifies with the struggle of the
by the ZCTU as a shop steward and between suffering workers, peasants and students.
2013 and 2019, I was interim national women’s
chairperson for Energy Sector Workers’ Union NH: What is your take on efforts by the gov-
Of Zimbabwe and a woman councillor to the ernment to restore the value of the Zimdollar and
ZCTU. In October 2016, I was elected to be the promote its wider usage?
first vice-president of the Zimbabwe Congress of
Trade Unions. FT: The employers and government have slow-
ly and certainly discarded use of the bond note.
On 6 March 2018, I was fired from Zesa for Workers are on the receiving end as they remain
demonstrating against non-compliance of col- as the only ones who accept the RTGS/bond note
lective bargaining agreements and bad corporate as a measure of value and trade. However, this
governance before being reinstated on 11 Decem- has made workers much poorer. Our view is that
ber 2019. the employer should now move towards restoring
workers’ dignity and respect by paying them in
NH: There were several allegations levelled the US dollar, which is the medium of exchange
against your ascendency, ranging from state-spon- today.
sored vote buying linked to businessman Kuda
Tagwirei. What is your response to this? NH: Any plans to embark on industrial action?
FT: Workers and the general populace are truly
FT: It is unfortunate that some colleagues in agitated with the prevailing socio-economic envi-
the struggle decided to peddle those unfounded ronment. As the leadership, we are trying our level
allegations on my person as a way to try to dent best to control the situation, but both employers
my candidature which they have failed to prove and government know exactly what needs to be
up until now. But l accepted it as part of the game done.
of politics, and put it behind. However, I never in In any event, if the situation continues to be
my whole career as a trade unionist ever imagined as it is, workers are already beaten and they are
a day would come when unionists would go to down. At this stage we can safely say that workers
those lengths just to retain political power and have nothing more to lose, as they have lost much
control of the organisation. more.
NH: What are your last words to the workers
It is however gratifying that the workers and and citizens of Zimbabwe?
trade unions, who had known my history, sup- FT: As labour, we have been known for the
ported me to stand in the elections and stood with popular adage “It is darkest before dawn”. As your
me throughout the mud-slinging and unfounded president and leader, we believe that all is not lost;
allegations. with concerted efforts we can restore Zimbabwe
to its glory days. We need a proper development
Since the elective conference, we have moved paradigm, we need a shift to addressing the real
on towards implementing the workers’ mandate. macro-economic fundamentals for the country to
We remain unmoved and unperturbed by the move ahead. I will lead the ZCTU team in engag-
manufactured rumours and allegations. ing with government and employers, if that fails l
shall give you the clarion call for action in which
NH: Your new leadership is said to have taken we shall require the support of everyone.
a pro-government approach. Is this true?

FT: Our approach has been based on consulta-
tion, research, dialogue, feedback and obviously
action. Our action or intentions must be driven
by our constituency, who are the workers. We are
mandate-driven as an organisation. Workers will
indicate and dictate what they want.

NH: How have the first months in office been?
FT: The first few months in office have been
very challenging and exciting. As the new leader-
ship, we have decided to go back to basics in an

NewsHawks News Page 21

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

Special Report
on Ukraine War

Why Ukraine matters

It is the second largest country by area
in Europe and has a population of over
40 million — more than Poland.

Ukraine ranks: • Eighth place in the world in wheat exports;
• Number one in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of • Nineth place in the world in the production of chicken

uranium ores; eggs;
• Second place in Europe and 10th place in the world • Sixteenth place in the world in cheese exports.

in terms of titanium ore reserves; • Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.
• Second place in the world in terms of explored reserves • Ukraine is an important industrialised country:

of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world's • First in Europe in ammonia production;
reserves); • Europe's second’s and the world’s fourth largest

• Second largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 natural gas pipeline system;
billion tons); • Third largest in Europe and eigth largest in the world in
• Second place in Europe in terms of mercury ore reserves;
terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
• Third place in Europe (13th place in the world) in • Third place in Europe and eleventh in the world in
shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
• Fourth in the world by the total value of natural resourc- terms of rail network length (21,700 km);
es; • Third place in the world (after the U.S. and France) in pro-

• Seventh place in the world in coal reserves (33.9 duction of locators and locating equipment;
billion tons) • Third largest iron exporter in the world
Ukraine is an important agricultural country:
• Fourth largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power
• First in Europe in terms of arable land area; plants in the world;
• Third place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of • Fourth world's largest manufacturer of rocket
launchers;
world's volume);
• First place in the world in exports of sunflower • Fourth place in the world in clay exports
• Fourth place in the world in titanium exports
and sunflower oil;
• Second place in the world in barley production and 4th • Eigth place in the world in exports of ores and concen-
trates;
place in barley exports;
• Third largest producer and 4th largest exporter of • Nineth place in the world in exports of defence industry
products;
corn in the world; • Tenth largest steel producer in the world (32.4 mil-
• Fourth largest producer of potatoes in the world; lion tons).

• Fifth largest rye producer in the world; • Ukraine matters. That is why its independence is import-
• Fifth place in the world in bee production (75,000 tons); ant to the rest of the world.

Page 22 Ukraine Special Report NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

IN a chilling act of aggression, War in Europe: Responding to
Russian President Vladimir Pu- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
tin launched a military assault on
Ukraine in the early hours of 24 friends, especially China – and human rights abuses in Back then, protests supporting Zelenskyy, who came to power in
February. which for the moment ap- the present fighting and any closer links to the European Union 2019 having campaigned on prom-
pears, regrettably, to have occupation that may follow. led to the ouster of a pro-Moscow ises of peace but refused to imple-
That Western leaders had warned cast its lot with Putin’s plan In reality, though, how horrific president. Russia, which saw a ment the Minsk agreements on
of this possibility for weeks did lit- – should take stock of what things get mostly depends on de- Western hand in both the unrest Russia’s terms, Moscow deployed
tle to cushion the shock. President this disruptive act will cost cisions taken in the Kremlin. Mos- and Kyiv’s new government, an- near Ukraine’s border what looked
Putin announced what he charac- them politically and eco- cow faces not only the sanctions nexed the Crimean peninsula and like the beginnings of an invasion
terised as a “special military opera- nomically. To the extent and Nato troop build-ups that sent weapons and personnel to force. It subsequently pulled back
tion” to demilitarise and “denazify” they can pressure Russia to Western powers will now under- support separatists in the eastern many troops though it left infra-
Ukraine, and made a barely coded reverse course, they should take, but also prospectively fierce Donbas region. Two ceasefire deals structure in place. A second build-
threat of nuclear strikes upon any do so. Ukrainian resistance that it seems signed in 2014 and 2015 – the up began in the autumn of 2021,
outside power that might come to • The UN and others should to have discounted, potentially im- Minsk accords – brought an end this time with greater numbers of
its aid. Residents of Ukraine’s cap- take urgent steps to help mense costs to its global repute and to the worst of the fighting and soldiers and with deployments on
ital, Kyiv, and cities throughout Ukraine prepare for the the need to convince its public that left separatists in control of about new fronts, including Belarus in
the country woke to explosions as war’s probable humanitarian this war on a neighbouring coun- a third of Ukraine’s Donetsk and the north and Crimea in the south.
Russian bombs and missiles fell on fallout. Large-scale displace- try in which many Russian citizens Luhansk regions, where they pro-
military facilities and infrastruc- ment and emergency med- have relatives and friends is truly claimed the breakaway Donetsk The deployments prompted a
ture. The bombardment follows a ical needs are likely. Russia crucial to national security. Seem- and Luhansk People’s Republics frenzy of diplomacy aimed at avert-
months-long build-up of as many itself will surely be required ingly isolated, angry and set on his (DNR and LNR). The Minsk deals ing war. Western states embarked
as 200 000 Russian troops on to host large numbers of dangerous path, President Putin laid out a roadmap for peace and on a two-pronged diplomatic cam-
Ukraine’s borders, to the north, refugees, for which it does may be beyond reaching. Pivoting reintegration of the separatist-con- paign – making clear, first, that any
west and south. Ground forces that not seem to have prepared. to the pursuit of a negotiated set- trolled regions under an undefined new aggression in Ukraine would be
then entered Ukraine indicate that Humanitarian agencies tlement could still lead to real re- “special status”. Moscow saw the met with harsh economic sanctions
Russia has embarked upon not only should, with donor support, ductions of forces in Europe and deals as a way to force Kyiv to ab- and a build-up of NATO forces
an air campaign aimed at toppling prepare for the worst. More would do much more for Russian sorb its proxies into a confedera- near Russia’s borders and, secondly,
Ukraine’s government but a full- for reputational purposes security than war in Ukraine. For tion, in which separatist-controlled that if Russian forces pulled back,
scale invasion. The human toll than because their outcry is now, though, that appears a distant entities would exercise a veto over Western governments were ready
could be catastrophic. likely to be effective, other hope. Those who oppose Moscow’s any major decision. Kyiv had no in- to negotiate new limits on activi-
international bodies should aggression need to raise the costs to clination to move in this direction, ties, exercises and deployments in
Russia’s belligerence deals a stag- do what they can to demon- Russia and prepare for what could and faulted Moscow for failing to Europe. Moscow responded with
gering blow to the norm against strate their opprobrium. be a long and difficult struggle. withdraw weapons and forces, as its own demands, while claiming
conquest, which – though some- The UN General Assembly A Slow, then Rapid Escalation the Minsk deals also stipulated. that Westerners were “hysterically”
times honoured in the breach or Human Rights Council Russia’s bombardment marks a exaggerating its build-up. It want-
– has underpinned global affairs should establish a fact-find- dramatic escalation in a war it has Moscow’s preparations for this ed Nato and the U.S. to sign bind-
since World War II. The rest of ing mechanism to collect ev- waged against Ukraine since 2014. latest phase of the war stretch back ing treaties pledging not to expand
the world, and not just the West- idence of violations of inter- to at least the spring of 2021. the alliance further, especially not
ern powers who thus far have been national humanitarian law to any more former Soviet coun-
most vocal, now needs to do what Increasingly frustrated with tries; remove all military forces to
it can to limit the damage. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr countries that were already Nato
the available steps may seem small members when the Soviet Union
given the scale of what President collapsed; and eschew intermedi-
Putin is doing, and cannot turn ate-range missile and US nuclear
back the clock or by themselves re- weapon deployments in Europe.
verse Russia’s aggression, a demon- While Nato refused to close its
stration of unity and imposition of door to new members, Western
costs by outside powers represent leaders communicated to Moscow
the best hope of bringing the re- that they had no plans to allow
gion, and the world, back toward a Ukraine or Georgia to join; could
more stable order: mutually limit intermediate-range
missile deployments, exercises and
• The first task for Western activities; and were ready to em-
powers and their partners bark upon a long-deferred broader
– one that is  well under discussion about the European se-
way  – is to take the steps curity architecture.
they had warned Moscow’s
military escalation would They declassified and shared in-
provoke. That means rolling telligence  regarding the build-up
out the full sanctions pack- and  Moscow’s plans, which ap-
ages they have promised, peared to include a large-scale in-
including against financial vasion and occupation of much of
institutions, Russian offi- Ukraine.
cials, and business leaders,
while avoiding steps that Weeks of negotiations and Rus-
unnecessarily harm average sian troop movements continued
Russian citizens, such as visa side by side, until things escalat-
bans. Nato and its mem- ed in mid-February. The line of
bers should also continue contact between separatist- and
to build up forces on the government-held territory in Don-
alliance’s eastern flank. They bas, which had been mostly quiet
should also keep support- throughout the build-up, saw a
ing Ukraine with weapons sharp increase in shelling. Russian
and other assistance. At the and separatist-controlled media,
same time, though diplo- which heretofore had focused on
macy holds little promise in denouncing Western hysteria and
the days ahead, they should played down the risks of war, por-
keep the door open no mat- trayed the fighting as the start of
ter how bad things get. a Ukrainian campaign to recon-
quer the separatist-held territories,
• Non-Western powers should amid an attempted genocide of
make their voices heard, the Russian-speaking population.
following the example of Ukraine, for its part, insisted that it
Kenya’s permanent repre- did not start the shooting, and the
sentative to the UN, whose Ukrainian army  accused  separatist
powerful intervention be-
fore the Security Council
on 21 February called Rus-
sia out for its violation of
Ukrainian sovereignty. They
should make clear the rep-
utational costs of Moscow’s
war of aggression. Russia’s

NewsHawks Ukraine Special Report Page 23

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

combatants of shelling their own The United States and its Western allies say they would respond to any invasion with sanctions, arms shipments and reinforcement of NATO countries nearby.
territory for propaganda purposes. File: Mykola Tymchenko/AP Photo
Russia’s genocide claims relied on
doctored and out-of-context imag- which in Moscow’s view were now Russian ground forces, including to install a surrogate government. meagre. Mass migration to parts of
es that were easily  debunked. On empowered to consent to their columns of heavy armour and artil- But creating a governing authori- Ukraine not controlled by Russia,
17 February, the heads of the DNR presence.  lery, then advanced from Crimea in ty capable of controlling a hostile and perhaps to neighbouring states,
and LNR announced the evacua- the south and Belarus in the north, population will also be costly and is likely if it remains feasible. So is
tion of their civilian populations It also underscored Putin’s dis- even as helicopters delivered more difficult, although Moscow may migration to Russia itself. Unlike
to Rostov, in Russia, seemingly to missal of Ukraine’s legitimacy as a personnel to locations elsewhere. either expect – likely mistakenly – in the LNR and DNR, active op-
the  surprise  of Rostov’s governor, nation-state. Numerous reports of fighting, that most Ukrainians will go along position, and perhaps even armed
who indicated he had no prepa- particularly in the south, were fol- or believe that the brutal methods resistance, is certainly on the cards,
rations in place. By 22 February, As more Russian troops entered lowed by news that Russian forces it is prepared to deploy will cow though its shape and scope is hard
some 90 000 refugees had arrived, separatist-held areas, Ukraine, on had taken parts of Ukraine, includ- them. It is also not clear how se- to predict.
according to Moscow, despite 23 February, declared a state of ing Kherson in the south, Sumy riously Moscow meant its demand, Moscow’s Logic
continuing gaps in availability of emergency, called up reservists in the north east, and the Cher- late on February 24, that Ukraine As Crisis Group has previously
housing and food. The refugees are and passed a law allowing citizens nobyl exclusion zone. Hostomel surrender, and commit to both noted, President Putin has chosen
overwhelmingly women, children to carry firearms and use them in airport near Kyiv changed hands neutrality and demilitarisation. But a path marked by risk and uncer-
and the elderly. The separatists an- self-defence. That evening, Presi- at least twice. Fighting also raged Kyiv, which thus far is defiant, is tainty for Russia. The question is
nounced the mobilisation of the dent Zelenskyy reported that his in Donbas. A variety of sources highly unlikely to comply. not who will win the war. Ukraine
entire male population aged eigh- efforts to reach Putin had been in presented visual evidence of casu- is overmatched by the Russian mil-
teen to 55 and prohibited the men vain. Speaking Russian on his Tele- alties on both sides and prisoners If Russia may not count on rap- itary. But as the US learned in Iraq
from leaving. gram channel, he addressed the of war taken by Ukraine. How long id Ukrainian capitulation, Putin’s and Afghanistan, toppling a gov-
Russian people in a heartfelt plea to Ukrainian forces will be able to re- refusal to talk to Zelenskyy on the ernment and creating something
At the same time, Russian sa- prevent war. Referring to Moscow’s sist is simply unclear. evening of 23 February may in- viable in its place are two very dif-
bre-rattling grew louder. Exercises propaganda, Zelenskyy went on to dicate a Russian desire to punish ferent things. Installing a surrogate
in the Black Sea sharply curtailed ask how he, the grandson of a man Russian ground forces, including Ukraine before accepting any sur- regime capable of controlling a hos-
freedom of movement and naviga- who served out World War II in the columns of heavy armour and artil- render, which would mean con- tile population absent Russian mil-
tion. Moscow also held nuclear and Soviet infantry and died in inde- lery, then advanced from Crimea in tinued bombardments. As Russian itary backing will be difficult, even
conventional strategic deterrence pendent Ukraine, could be a Nazi the south and Belarus in the north, troops move in, both the expected if that government extends the  in
forces drills, including launches of (Zelenskyy is also Jewish). Krem- even as helicopters delivered more resistance to them and their re- terrorem tactics  that Moscow ap-
ballistic and cruise missiles on 19 lin spokesman Dmitry Peskov  re- personnel to locations elsewhere. sponse to it will inevitably put ci- pears ready to deploy to stamp out
February. While likely scheduled sponded by saying Kremlin officials Numerous reports of fighting, vilians in jeopardy. So, of course, opposition to its designs. Outright
long in advance, these contribut- were not sure what the two presi- particularly in the south, were fol- do the bombardments. occupation would be enormous-
ed to a sense that Russia was pre- dents might discuss, though they lowed by news that Russian forces ly expensive. The extent to which
paring for war. Elsewhere near the were not opposed to talks if those had taken parts of Ukraine, includ- Moreover, rumours and US in- the Russian economy will be able
Ukrainian border, Russian forces could “cut the Gordian knot” of ing Kherson in the south, Sumy telligence assessments of Russian to bear the crippling sanctions the
moved ever closer, in sharp contrast eastern Ukraine. As Russia’s bom- in the north east, and the Cher- plans for incarceration and even West envisages is unknown. Mean-
to promises by Russian Defense bardment started, Kyiv officially nobyl exclusion zone. Hostomel murder of serving Ukrainian of- time, Putin’s aggressive campaign
Minister Sergei Shoigu to start broke diplomatic ties with Moscow. airport near Kyiv changed hands ficials and others raise concerns has breathed new life into Nato
withdrawing troops at the end of The First Day of Full-scale War at least twice. Fighting also raged about potential violations of in- and provoked precisely the kind of
exercises which were the pretext for While much remains unclear, Rus- in Donbas. A variety of sources ternational humanitarian and hu- troop build-up on its borders that
tens of thousands of Russian troops sia appears to have begun its assault presented visual evidence of casu- man rights law in a Ukraine under he has been trying to discourage.
to gather in Belarus on Ukraine’s with long-range strikes targeting alties on both sides and prisoners Russian control. People with ties to While many non-Western coun-
northern flank – some 200km from military and other infrastructure of war taken by Ukraine. How long Western organisations will likely tries until now have avoided strong
Kyiv – were extended beyond their throughout Ukraine, including Ukrainian forces will be able to re- face increased danger. So, too, will condemnation of Russia’s belliger-
scheduled end date of 20 Febru- near Kyiv and other major cit- sist is simply unclear. those affiliated with groups, move- ence, invading a sovereign country
ary, with the Belarusian  Ministry ies across the country such as the ments and identities demonised by on such a flimsy pretext may do
of Defence citing rising tensions in Black Sea port of Odessa, as well If Russia’s goal is a demilita- Moscow, such as LGBTQ+ individ- lasting damage to Putin’s interna-
Donbas. There and elsewhere, Rus- as eastern industrial hubs Kharkiv, rised, compliant Ukraine, as Putin’s uals. tional standing beyond the West.
sian troop and weapon formations Dnipro and Mariupol. West- statements and speeches indicate,
grew smaller, more widely dispersed ern Ukraine was not spared, with it is hard to see how it can achieve Beyond that, if Russia does oc- Why, then, such a dangerous
and better hidden. Satellite images bombs landing in the Lviv region this end without some element of cupy most or all of Ukraine, Ukrai- move? The story told in President
showed a new  pontoon bridge  in and near Lutsk. The initial bomb- military occupation. The deploy- nians can look to some degree to Putin’s speech reflects a worldview
southern Belarus across the Pripy- ing may have aimed to destroy ments of Russian National Guard what happened in the DNR and in which the eastward expansion of
at, a major river that runs paral- Ukraine’s air defence capability, troops alongside offensive units to LNR for a glimpse of their future. Western institutions is a zero-sum
lel to the Belarus-Ukraine border, such as it was. It may also have in- Ukraine’s borders since the start It is likely that a Russian-occu- game that intentionally limits,
positioned to cut the route from tended to menace Ukrainians and of 2022 suggest that Moscow has pied Ukraine would face sanctions, weakens and aims to coerce Russia
staging positions to the Ukrainian demonstrate Russia’s massive mil- been preparing to occupy at least meaning that its economy would politically, militarily and economi-
capital by 70km. itary superiority. Already reports parts of Ukraine. Over time, oc- deteriorate. Russia’s goal is a sub- cally. As Putin said, even if Ukraine
suggest the bombing has killed and cupation will almost surely face re- dued, not prosperous, Ukraine is not on track to join Nato, Mos-
A flicker of hope on 20 February wounded dozens of civilians. sistance and be enormously expen- and support from Russia – whose
was soon dashed. Putin and French sive, which may lead Moscow to try own economy will be groaning un-
President Macron spoke twice by der new sanctions – is likely to be
telephone, and pledged to con-
tinue talks, including to facilitate
a summit with U.S. President Joe
Biden, who agreed to meet, subject
to the condition that there be no
further escalation by Russia. The
next day, on 21 February, Moscow
televised a visibly staged Putin-led
meeting of the Russian Nation-
al Security Council, convened to
discuss the possible recognition of
the two breakaway republics, and
then broadcast  Putin’s speech an-
nouncing that recognition. The
speech portrayed Nato as a hos-
tile enemy bent on weakening and
constraining Russia. It was marked
by anti-Ukraine vitriol and rejec-
tion of Ukrainian nationhood,
reaching back into history to cast
blame on Vladimir Lenin for hav-
ing recognised Ukraine as a Soviet
republic during the post-revolu-
tionary period. The recognition of
the DNR and LNR rendered the
Minsk agreements moot. It creat-
ed a pretext for Moscow to send
in troops, ostensibly as peacekeep-
ers to defend the LNR and DNR,

Page 24 Ukraine Special Report NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

cow sees its growing ties to the based on the watches visible on limit the damage. All meaningful for the project and may have helped which China has tended to treat as
alliance as a danger, likely to lead participants’ wrists. Open-source responsibility lies with Moscow, catalyse the European response. inviolable. The risks, uncertainty
to the deployment of Nato forces intelligence journalists questioned which ideally would return to talks and economic shock waves the cri-
and infrastructure in Ukraine, all whether the evacuation from the with both Kyiv and Western pow- In response to the 24 February sis will unleash create headaches for
with the aim of menacing Russia. breakaway republics was perfor- ers and indeed could still benefit attacks, President Biden announced everyone, including Beijing.
Moscow does not trust Nato ver- mative after spotting in the  vid- from negotiations over the Europe- further measures, including sanc-
bal promises that Ukraine will not eo’s metadata  that both separatist an security architecture. But with tions on four of Russia’s major state Preparing to tackle the human-
join and that no infrastructure will leaders in Luhansk and Donetsk the Kremlin seemingly bent on a banks and the imposition of export itarian fallout must be another
be deployed in the country. It sees recorded the calls for evacuation more destructive path, others must controls to deprive Russia of tech- priority. If war continues – par-
Nato expansion to date, for which it on the morning of 16 February, do what they can to maximise the nological goods that would, in his ticularly if followed by occupation
mostly blames the US, as a substan- two days before they were aired. costs for Russia, to both deter fu- words, cut off over half of Russia’s – tens or hundreds of thousands
tial breach of faith. Historians  de- Long-planned does not necessarily ture aggression and, though this high-tech imports. The EU is ex- of people, potentially even more,
bate the degree of assurance offered mean inevitable. But Moscow’s un- appears to be a tall order for now, pected to follow suit. South Korea could be displaced, seeking safety
to the Soviet Union that the alli- willingness to budge from its initial motivate some rectification of the has also now said it would join in and security. Access to necessary
ance would not grow, but it is clear maximalist negotiating positions situation in Ukraine. the sanctions regime. medical care for civilians will be at
that  no formal guarantees  were and its continued escalation, all a premium. Ukraine, which thus
granted to Moscow. This historical the while meeting Western leaders The toughest decisions in the As Western powers take these far appears not to have prepared
experience helps explain the Rus- and in some instances even prom- coming period likely rest with steps, they should be clear about sufficiently for such eventualities,
sian demand for “legally binding” ising to withdraw troops, suggest President Zelenskyy. Severely out- what Moscow can do – namely, re- will need to do what it can, as
agreements this time around. that there was not much hope that gunned, he will need to decide how verse its aggression in Ukraine – to fast as it can, in cooperation with
it would accept a negotiated settle- to wage the war, and what cost his get sanctions lifted. This is unlikely international organisations and
Still, other factors are likely at ment short of total capitulation. government and the Ukrainian to have much impact on a Kremlin NGOs. Neighbouring countries,
play in President Putin’s decision to people more broadly are prepared leadership that is expecting a heavy which have begun to take steps to
opt for war. One might be that Mos- Critics of Western policy look to sustain in defending their home- economic blow. But it would sig- get ready, will need to do more. All
cow judges military force as one of at fateful decisions with respect to land. Polling, at least, showed near- nal to the Russian people that their planning should build on the expe-
its more successful tools in recent Nato’s post-Cold War enlargement ly 60 per cent of Ukrainians willing political leaders have the power to rience humanitarian organisations
years. In Syria, Russia’s interven- and suggest that this crisis is partly to resist as of mid-February; but mitigate the shocks they are about have gained in Donbas over the
tion turned the course of the war, of the alliance’s own making. But with bombs falling and families to suffer. Popular sentiment in past eight years.
propping up the Bashar al-Assad whatever that argument’s merits, threatened it is difficult to know Moscow suggests a less enthusiastic
regime and placing Russia square- the complete reversion to the pre- whether that sentiment will harden mood about this military adventure Local organisations, many of
ly in a critical role. Moscow may 1997 status quo that Russia de- or fade. Kyiv will need to make its than that which greeted (for ex- which will be uprooted by the in-
see its 2008 intervention in Geor- manded was never realistic over the calculations without any illusion ample) Putin’s 2014 move against vasion, should be given a chance to
gia as having helped prevent that past few months, and it is out of that Nato member states will come Crimea. Though it is a difficult line participate early on in the human-
country from aligning more close- the question now. So too was its in- to their aid beyond providing some to walk, the U.S. and other West- itarian response. Russia itself will
ly with Nato and the EU.  It may sistence that Nato formally pledge arms. Even before Putin appeared ern powers should do what they have to cope with refugee flows,
believe that only the use of force to cease expansion. First, while the to threaten to use nuclear weapons can to stay on the right side of the and be prepared to take on most
will convince Ukraine and Ukrai- 1997 Nato-Russia Founding Act in his 24 February speech, Western Russian public by avoiding gratu- if not all humanitarian responsi-
nians that they have no choice but prohibits the permanent stationing powers had, understandably, made itously punitive measures, such as a bilities in areas it controls. Inter-
alignment with Russia — particu- of substantial Nato forces on the clear that their military interven- blanket visa ban, that would work national bodies that monitor the
larly as Western states will not ride territories of new members,  many tion is not on the cards. at cross-purposes with longer-term commission of wartime atrocities
to their rescue. As stated earlier, it of those new members see the pres- goals. should also signal that they will be
may either underestimate the hos- ence on their soil of smaller, rota- For Western powers, the chal- watching the situation as it evolves.
tility Moscow’s policies since 2014 tional forces as critical for security, lenges will be of a different nature. Nato members will also have to For example, the UN General As-
inspire in Ukraine outside separat- not least because they believe them Most have already reacted with recalibrate their force posture in sembly or Human Rights Council
ist-held areas or be confident in its crucial to dispel any thought Mos- outrage to what they described as Europe, to reassure allies near Rus- could mandate a fact-finding mis-
ability to overcome resistance with cow might have of aggressive ac- an unjustifiable attack on Europe’s sia first and foremost. They will sion or similar body to collect any
blood-curdling brutality. tion – hardly an academic consid- stability and the international or- almost certainly raise the tempo of evidence of breaches of interna-
eration given the course of events der. US President Biden warned military exercises. The Nato-Rus- tional law or human rights abuses
The tendency toward coercion in Ukraine. Secondly, although of a “catastrophic loss of life” and sia Founding Act and its commit- committed as the hostilities unfold
may have been strengthened during they made clear that they are not the EU’s chief executive Ursula von ments will surely join the wealth of or in any subsequent occupation.
the last two years as an already nar- looking to admit Ukraine any time der Leyen dubbed Russia’s advance other agreements lately sent to the
row advisory circle around Putin soon, Nato members are not as a “barbaric”. While reiterating that dustbin. Putin’s threat of extreme For now, diplomacy and the
shrunk further due to Covid-19 matter of principle prepared to re- Nato troops would not enter the consequences notwithstanding, counter-measures that the West has
precautions. As  one observer  ar- scind the open-ended promise that fight, secretary-general Jens Stol- Western powers should continue prepared are unlikely to change the
gues, this circle likely has come to they made in 2008. Thirdly, West- tenberg harshly condemned the to support the Ukrainian state with mood in Moscow, and things could
exclude those who are more moder- ern governments were quite reason- Russian action: "Peace on our con- weapons and supplies while that well get worse before they get bet-
ate and focused on economic devel- ably worried about the precedent tinent has been shattered,” he said. remains feasible. At the same time, ter. War in Ukraine and a military
opment in favour of those who take they might set by appearing to cave “This is a deliberate, cold-blooded as tempers run high on both sides build-up in Eastern Europe all
a harder line and are prone to the in to Russian gunboat diplomacy and long-planned invasion. Russia of the East-West line, and more but guarantee new crises, each po-
zero-sum views described above. and the possibility that domestic is using force to try to rewrite his- Nato forces arrive close to Russia’s tentially that much more volatile.
Those people, and it seems Putin political opponents might try to tar tory”. Western states also reported- frontiers, it will be more important While Ukraine clearly holds spe-
himself, see a West that is simul- them as weak. ly prepared a UN Security Council than ever that command centres cial significance in Moscow, and
taneously losing ground geopoliti- resolution condemning Russia’s ac- on both sides keep lines open for to Putin himself, it cannot entirely
cally and acting aggressively toward Against this backdrop, the US tion, although Moscow is expected deconfliction and de-escalation of be assumed that Russia will stop
Russia, creating both opportunity and its Nato partners took the best to veto when it comes to a vote. tensions that could build around there. As Western states run out of
and imperative for Moscow to press course available to them, mak- The question is what they can do higher-than-normal levels of activ- economic punishments to dole out,
its advantage. ing clear that they would support beyond using strong rhetoric that ity. the pressure to respond militarily
but not militarily defend Ukraine; is at once meaningful and mindful will increase.
By this calculus, Ukraine, with coming together behind a signifi- of the need to avoid a potentially The West should not be the
such close historical ties to Rus- cant set of costs to impose in the cataclysmic escalation. only bloc that is sending messages The growing risk means that
sia, would be a logical place for event of further aggression; expos- to Moscow.  The more that non- continued talks about European
the Kremlin to draw a line. This ing Russian plans and intentions The main focus will be on put- aligned countries can communicate security and arms control, nuclear
group, moreover, is unlikely to be so as to rob it of legitimising argu- ting in place and rigorously enforc- to Moscow the reputational costs and conventional, are necessary,
deterred by sanctions, taking the ments before an international audi- ing sanctions that Western leaders its aggression will incur, the better. even if, for now, they sadly appear
view that the West is determined to ence; and creating a serious diplo- have been threatening for weeks, They could echo themes in Kenya’s far from reach. Unless and until
deploy these in an effort to stran- matic option to discuss the issues of which will be critical if the bloc’s intervention at the 21 February UN things indeed escalate to unprece-
gle Russia’s economy whatever it greatest concern to Moscow. This threats are to be seen as a credible Security Council meeting: spelling dented levels, the U.S. and the EU
does, and that they are irrelevant to approach was never guaranteed to deterrent in the future. As of 23 out, in other words, the carnage will have to resume dialogue with
themselves personally, as many are succeed. But the alternatives – ei- February, the US, EU and others that would follow if the rest of the Russia sooner or later, both to en-
already designated. ther putting military confrontation including the United Kingdom, Ja- world decides to abrogate borders sure that everyone understands
among nuclear powers on the table pan and Australia had already im- in the ostensible service of uniting fully the consequences of the path
The war is almost certainly long or doing nothing, thus encouraging posed limited sanctions in response like peoples. China, if it chose to, they are on and to identify ways to
in the planning. The build-up near the impression of cost-free aggres- to Russia’s recognition of Ukraine’s could play a useful role.  avoid further disaster.
Ukraine, beginning with the small- sion – would have been worse. two separatist regions.
er version in the spring of 2021, Responding to Russia’s aggres- Though at first muted in back- As tanks roll over European bor-
gave Moscow the options it has sion The measures hit Russian banks ing Russia’s moves, Beijing made ders, it is tempting to look some-
now acted upon. Moscow’s moves After months of crisis diplomacy and individuals and took steps to- statements on 24 February that where for hope. Today, sadly, that
of recent weeks show signs of hav- have failed to avert what could well ward cutting Russia out of world were more supportive of Moscow is in short supply. Right now, it is
ing been carefully orchestrated. be Europe’s biggest war in a gen- financial markets. German Chan- and avoided calling Russia’s attack up to those countries that want to
The 21 February National Security eration, attention now needs to cellor Olaf Scholz’s decision to put on Ukraine an invasion. Whatever avoid a future made safe for aggres-
Council meeting not only looked turn to doing whatever possible to on ice approval for Russia’s Nord China’s geostrategic calculations to sors to demonstrate unity and gird
wooden, despite Putin’s assuranc- Stream pipeline to pump gas to date, it should weigh seriously the themselves to meet the challenges
es that it was not, but appeared to Germany was particularly stark be- risks of throwing its lot in with Pu- that lie ahead with prudence and
have been taped well in advance, cause of Berlin’s longtime support tin. Russia’s war is a frontal assault resolve.
on the principle of sovereignty,
—International Crisis Group.

NewsHawks Ukraine Special Report Page 25

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

World leaders
react to Russia’s
attack on Ukraine:
‘A dark day for
the Europeans’

PRESIDENT Joe Biden promised that long-planned invasion. Russia is using
“the world will hold Russia accountable” force to try to rewrite history,” he said.
for what he described as an “unprovoked
and unjustified attack” on Ukraine. Earlier Thursday, European countries
near the conflict, including Estonia,
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zel- Lithuania, Latvia and Poland, triggered
ensky said Thursday that “Russia has consultations under Article 4 of Nato’s
vilely attacked us” and that the country founding treaty — a provision that can
was “defending itself and will not give be launched when “the territorial in-
up its freedom, as they think in Moscow. tegrity, political independence” of any
For Ukrainians, their independence and NATO country is threatened.
right to live on their own land freely is
the highest value.” Germany
German Chancellor  Olaf
Other  global leaders  were quick to Scholz  said  there was “no justification” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
condemn Russia’s actions and call for a
decisive response. In some corners,  in- for Russia’s military actions in Ukraine. good relations with Russia and with Addressing the Ukrainian people di- pending some visas and freezing assets of
cluding China and Iran, responses were “This is a terrible day for Ukraine and Ukraine,” he said. “There are tens of rectly, the prime minister said, “in this individuals connected to the breakaway
somewhat muted. a dark day for Europe,” he said. thousands of Israelis in both countries, moment of agony, we’re with regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, ban-
The German Foreign ministry said and there are hundreds of  thousands ning imports and exports for the two
Here’s how the world has responded: in a statement that it had “prepared for of Jews in both countries.  Maintaining you, we’re praying for you and your regions, and the sale of Russian sovereign
European Union these events” and would now work with their security and safety is at the top of families, and we are on your side.” debt in Japan.
European Union (EU) leaders criticised Group of Seven powers, Nato and the our considerations.” United Nations
Russia on Thursday for “bringing war EU on Thursday to coordinate sanctions China Johnson chaired an emergency meet- UN secretary-general António Guterres
back to Europe” and promised to hit and strengthen security measures. China on Thursday appeared ing with cabinet ministers earlier Thurs- made a last-minute plea on Wednesday
Moscow with tougher new sanctions In recent years, Europe’s largest econ- to  deny  backing Russia’s assault as it day and tweeted that he had spoken to to Putin to stop any aggression during
for its “barbaric attack” on Ukraine, of- omy has expanded trade and energy ties treaded a cautious line, after earlier this Zelensky to discuss next steps. Britain’s the emergency meeting of the UN Se-
ficials said. “We will not let President Pu- with Moscow, including the construc- week  stating  that it recognised what it foreign minister, Liz Truss, echoed his curity Council. Early Thursday, Gu-
tin tear down Europe’s security architec- tion of the US$11 billion Nord Stream called Russia’s legitimate security con- condemnation and  said  she had  sum- terres said he was changing his appeal as
ture,” European Commission President 2 pipeline, built to transport natural gas cerns without explicitly endorsing the moned the Russian ambassador in Lon- circumstances on the ground had esca-
Ursula von der Leyen tweeted. from Russia to Germany. Earlier this Kremlin’s actions. don to explain Russia’s actions and that lated.
week, Scholz said Berlin would stop the Britain would be “imposing severe sanc-
“These are among the darkest hours regulatory approval process following At a news briefing Thursday, Chinese tions and rallying countries in support of “President Putin, in the name of hu-
of Europe since the Second World Moscow’s actions. Foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Ukraine.” manity, bring your troops back to Rus-
War,” said the EU’s foreign policy chief Chunying downplayed the suggestion Canada sia,” Guterres said.
Josep Borrell, as he called on Russian France that Beijing was supporting Moscow be- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said late
President Vladimir Putin to stop “this President Emmanuel Macron in a tele- hind the scenes. “We won’t be like Amer- on Wednesday that Canada “condemns Separately, Filippo Grandi, the UN
senseless aggression.” vised address to the nation on Thursday ica and provide Ukraine a large amount in the strongest possible terms Russia’s high commissioner for refugees,  tweet-
vowed to back sanctions against Rus- of military equipment. Russia as a pow- egregious attack on Ukraine.” He called ed  that it was a “dark day for world
The bloc will convene Thursday to sia, saying Moscow’s attack on Ukraine erful nation also does not need China or Russia’s “unprovoked actions” a violation peace.” He warned in a  statement  on
work on fresh measures to hold Putin ac- amounts to the “most serious damage to other countries to provide” military assis- of Ukraine’s sovereignty and of Russia’s Thursday that “the humanitarian con-
countable, von der Leyen said in a state- peace and stability” Europe has faced in tance,” Hua said. But she added: “China obligations under international law. sequences on civilian populations will
ment. “With this package, we will target decades. did not wish to see what happened in be devastating. There are no winners in
strategic sectors of the Russian economy Ukraine today.” “Ukraine’s sovereignty and territori- war.”
by blocking their access to key technolo- Macron called the events of the last 24 al integrity must be respected and the Iran
gies and markets,” she said. “And in ad- hours “a turning point in the history of Zhang Jun, China’s ambassador to Ukrainian people must be free to deter- Iranian Foreign minister Hossein Ami-
dition, we will freeze Russian assets in the Europe and our country.” the United Nations, on Wednesday mine their own future,” he said in a state- rabdollahian appeared to side with Rus-
European Union and stop the access of urged all parties to “exercise restraint and ment. sia and blamed Nato for the looming
Russian banks to the European financial France holds the rotating presidency avoid further escalation,” speaking to crisis. “The #Ukraine crisis is rooted in
market.” of the Council of the European Union, the UN Security Council. “We believe Trudeau will be among the G-7 world Nato’s provocations,” he tweeted.
and Macron had cast himself as Putin’s that the door to a peaceful solution to leaders meeting Thursday to collectively
An  initial round of penalties  an- interlocutor in recent weeks — claiming the Ukraine issue is not fully shut, nor respond to “Russia’s unwarranted aggres- “Imperative to establish cease fire &
nounced Tuesday had targeted Kremlin a central role in negotiations between should it be.” sion,” he said, which could include addi- to find a political and democratic resolu-
officials, lawmakers and three banks and Ukraine and Russia aimed at heading off tional sanctions. “Russia’s brazen acts will tion,” Amirabdollahian added.
restricted Russian access to EU financial such a conflict. Earlier this week, spokeswoman Hua not go unpunished,” Trudeau said. Finland
and capital markets. warned authorities in Taiwan not to “try South Korea President Sauli Niinisto  said  he strong-
Nato A spokesperson from the Élysée Pal- to exploit the Ukraine issue to its bene- “As a responsible actor in the interna- ly condemned the Russian attacks, de-
North Atlantic Treaty Organisation ace said Macron had spoken on Thurs- fit. Taiwan is not Ukraine,” she tweeted. tional community, South Korea supports scribing them as an assault not just on
(Nato) secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg day morning to Zelensky. “The President Another Foreign ministry spokesperson, and will join economic sanctions and Ukraine but also “on the entire Europe-
condemned what he called Russia’s “reck- assured him of France’s full support and Zhao Lijian, posted on social media a list other international efforts to deter the an security order.”
less” attack on Ukraine, warning that it solidarity,” the statement said. Echoing of wars and military actions undertaken armed aggression and resolve the situa-
puts at risk “countless civilian lives.” Nato, France’s Foreign minister Jean- by the United States and said: “Never tion peacefully,” South Korean President He added that the leaders of Scandi-
Yves Le Drian in a statement also point- forget who’s the real threat to the world.” Moon Jae-in said on Thursday. navian countries including Sweden and
“This is a grave breach of international ed a finger of blame at Belarus, which it United Kingdom Japan Norway had spoken on Thursday morn-
law, and a serious threat to Euro-Atlan- accused of supporting Russian aggres- British Prime Minister Boris Johnson Japan, the lone Asian member of the ing and had “a shared view of the danger-
tic security,” Stoltenberg said in a state- sion in Ukraine. issued a pre-recorded televised statement G-7, after years of trying to avoid antag- ous situation.”
ment Thursday. “Once again, despite our on Thursday condemning Russia’s “hid- onizing Moscow said Thursday it would Italy
repeated warnings and tireless efforts to “[France] also condemns the use of eous and barbaric” attack on Ukraine be  working  with Western allies on the Prime Minister Mario Draghi called the
engage in diplomacy, Russia has chosen the territory of Belarus, authorized by and vowing to join allies in launching a Ukraine crisis — as Japanese Prime Min- attack “unjustified and unjustifiable,”
the path of aggression against a sovereign the Lukashenko regime, to carry out this “massive package” of sanctions designed ister Fumio Kishida faces his first major stating that his country was working
and independent country,” he said. aggression against a sovereign country,” to “hobble” the Russian economy. foreign policy test since he took the helm with its European and Nato allies to re-
he said. in October. Kishida, who navigated the spond “immediately.”
Nato members agreed later Thursday Johnson said his government would 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea as
to bolster their forces and deploy “ad- Israel release details of a second tranche of foreign minister, pledged to take a “tough The Italian Foreign ministry  said  it
ditional defensive land and air forces to Israel’s Foreign minister Yair Lapid con- sanctions soon. Earlier this week, Brit- response” in lock-step with Western al- had summoned Russia’s ambassador to
the eastern part of the Alliance, as well as demned Russia’s actions on Thursday ain froze the UK assets of five Russian lies. But so far, those actions have been Italy and condemned the “unprovoked
additional maritime assets,” the organi- and said Israel is “ready and prepared to banks and three Russian oligarchs with largely symbolic. They include economic aggression against Ukraine,” calling it “a
zation said in a statement. “We also con- provide humanitarian assistance to the close ties to Putin. The sanctions were sanctions unveiled on Wednesday — be- violation of international law.”
demn Belarus for enabling this attack.” citizens of Ukraine.” Lapid also  said  it described as weak by many, including fore Russia’s attack — which involve sus-
wasn’t too late for more diplomacy be- lawmakers in Johnson’s own party. —Washington Post.
“Peace on our continent has been tween powers.
shattered,” Stoltenberg later told report-
ers during a news conference in Brussels. “Israel has deep, long-lasting, and
“This is a deliberate, coldblooded and

Page 26 Ukraine Special Report NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

The root cause of the Ukraine conflict

The Russia armed forces Europe’s over-reliance on Russia’s energy  pendence on Soviet Union. Thus, as its imposition.  sion of the original Nord Stream pipe-
launched the much me- While Russia depends on revenue from the USSR began developing oil and The pipeline eventually got complet- line, wasapproved by the German gov-
dia-speculated offensive Europe, the latter depends on the supply gas pipelines to Europe, the resultant ernment in 2018 and its construction
against Ukraine on Thursday of energy from Russia. Overall, Russia increasing energy dependence on it by ed three years later in 1984. was completed in September 2021. Its
morning on the orders of was supplying about one-third of Euro- nations in the region became a matter of Energy security – Foreign policy tool  launch, however, faced regulatory delays
President Putin, who said the pean natural gas consumption, used for great concern for the US. Unlike his predecessors who refrained due to pressure from the US on Europe-
goal of the operation was to heating in the winter as well as electrici- from shutting off energy exports, Presi- an politicians.
demilitarise and “de-Nazify” ty generation and industrial production. Western Europe imported 6% of its dent Putin smartly merged his economic
Ukraine. The EU also depends on Russia for more oil only from the Soviet Union in the policy with geopolitical objectives. Once functional, Nord Stream 2
than one-quarter of its crude oil imports.  1960s. The new planned oil pipeline would have ensured higher levels of ex-
LT-GEN ABHAY KRISHNA (RTD) connecting the Russian far east and go- For example, Ukraine continued port of Russia’s natural gas to Germany
Russia had, thus, turned out as the ing through several European countries to receive the same heavily subsidised bypassing Ukraine and other current
THE Russian Defence ministry on single largest energy source for this bloc such as Ukraine and Poland, finally ter- gas shipments from Russia in the early countries through which the pipelines
Thursday morning announced that it of nations.  minating in Germany, was bound to in- 2000s as it did when it was part of the currently transit. This had added to
had taken on Ukraine’s air defences and crease the supplies manifold.  Soviet Union a decade earlier.  US worries that Russia would perhaps
its Air Force with a series of precision at- Due to this inter-dependence, impos- no longer be held hostage by pro-West
tacks, after airports and runways across ing tougher sanctions on Russia is going This increased dependence was to However, when the “Orange Revo- countries such as Poland and Ukraine of
the country were rocked by explosions.  to make a serious dent in its energy sup- definitely give significant coercive power lution” near the end of 2004 led to the Eastern Europe for its energy exports. 
plies and thus eventually the dependent to the Soviet Union. Thus, these chang- ouster of a pro-Russian leader, replacing
The Russian armed forces launched European countries will be the sufferers.  ing dynamics raised strategic concerns him with one who sought closer ties In December 2021, post commence-
the much media-speculated offensive and rang the alarm bells in Washington. with the West, the Russian Gas corpora- ment of the present crisis in Ukraine,
against Ukraine on Thursday morning In fact, a few EU states are far more tion, Gazprom, immediately demanded Europe once again tasted the glimpses
on the orders of President Vladimir dependent than others. The Kennedy administration in 1963 Ukraine to pay full market rates for its of potential consequences when Russia
Putin, who said the goal of the opera- had attempted to stall construction of gas. stopped selling additional gas as it had
tion was to demilitarise and “de-Nazify” While Portugal and Spain use little the Druzhba or “Friendship,” Oil Pipe- in the past. The very next month, the
Ukraine. The Russian leader claimed Russian energy, Germany, the largest Eu- line by imposing an embargo on the When Ukraine refused to comply, International Energy Agency was quick
that military action was necessary to stop ropean economy, was getting more than wide-diameter pipe to Soviet-aligned Russia restricted the flow of gas through to accuse Russia of trying to destabilise
Ukrainian attacks on the two breakaway half of its natural gas and over 30% of countries. As this embargo alone was not the pipelines, leaving just enough to ful- European energy security. 
regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, which its crude oil supplies from Russia. France enough to stop the project, the US pres- fil its contracts with other countries in
Moscow recognised as sovereign states.  gets most of its electricity from nuclear sured the allies, especially West Germa- Western Europe. This move by Russia, With Nord Stream 2 becoming func-
power; but relied on imports from Rus- ny, a major pipe exporter to join hands. besides putting economic pressure on tional, the main worry of the two transit
Last Monday, Putin had claimed that sia to meet its fossil fuel needs. Further, Though Britain refused to toe the US the pro-Western government in Kyiv, countries was that that it would deprive
Russia could come under attack by the plans of Germany and other countries line, somehow West Germany reluctant- was also used as the basis for claims that them of billions of dollars in annual
Ukrainian far right government, unless to phase out nuclear and coal power in ly agreed, which ensured a partial Nato Ukraine was an unreliable gas transit transit fees, resulting in heavy losses in
their influence in the country is dimin- times ahead would have only further embargo.  country. This narrative thus helped build the annual revenue. 
ished. He accused Western nations of increased this dependence on Russia for support for a new pipeline named Nord
arming Kyiv against Russia. energy supply. However, notwithstanding this par- Stream which directly channelled gas It is interesting to note that in 2019,
US bid to contain Russian pipeline tial embargo, the pipeline finally got from Russia to Germany. the total demand of the 27 members of
The developments of Thursday morn- projects  completed one year later.  the EU for natural gas peaked at 390
ing, however grim and disturbing they When one looks back in time, it be- Nord Stream pipeline that was com- billion cubic metres (bcm). In the same
may sound or look, it is very important comes evident that such a dependence Later, after a span of nearly two de- missioned in 2011 not only inflicted an year, Russian gas supplies to these 27 EU
that we turn the clock back to under- on Russian energy has not happened cades, interestingly, the Reagan admin- annual loss of US$720 million in transit members also peaked at 168 bcm or say
stand the Big Game behind this new overnight. The US has been speculating istration too faced a similar dilemma. fees on Ukraine, but also significantly 43% of the total EU natural gas con-
conflict Eastern Europe finds itself em- for a long time about Russian willing- In 1981, when the Soviet Union com- increased Germany’s dependence on sumption. However, due to the strong
broiled in.  ness to use trade to tie the hands of other menced building a natural gas pipeline Russian energy supply. By 2020, Russia EU climate policy, the demand is un-
Russia – an emerging energy giant  countries -- a concern dating back to the from Siberia going into Western Europe, began to supply Germany an estimated likely to reach that level again. 
Post collapse of the Union of Soviet early days of the Cold War. the US once again tried to persuade the 75% of its natural gas, up from 35% in
Socialist Republics (USSR) in the ear- European allies such as France and Ger- 2015.  In 2021, the anticipated Russian
ly 1990s and thereafter, many years of Post the Second World War, both the many to join its embargo on not only natural gas exports to the EU stood at
economic struggle and internal strife, USSR and the US started to lock horns providing pipeline equipment for the Natural gas is widely required in Ger- 135 bcm. With Nord Stream 2 getting
the leadership of President Putin final- while trying to expand their hegemony project, but financing as well.  many to run the power industry, meet functional, it was estimated that out of
ly ensured that Russia is now seen as to influence countries and get them into with heating requirements and to gen- the annual Russian gas supply of 135
an energy giant, becoming the world’s their fold who were not formally aligned But when all these countries refused erate electricity for extensive use in the bcm, nearly 110 bcm, that is 81%,
third-largest producer of oil and sec- with either superpower.  to comply with the US dictates, it then country.  would have gone through both the Nord
ond-largest producer of natural gas. responded with sanctions to dissuade Stream pipelines.
Russia is understood to have used energy The Soviet Union began to extend the European companies from provid- The Nord Stream pipeline carries nat- Window of opportunity for US and
revenue to accumulate some US$630 favourable trade deals and offered other ing money or equipment for the project. ural gas from Northwest Russia through Ukraine 
billion in foreign exchange reserves. For economic assistance to not only War- However, this arbitrary action by the US the Baltic Sea directly to Germany with The operationalisation of the pipeline
example, in the year 2021 Russia bal- saw Pact countries, but also reached led to strained relationships among the the pipeline handling one-third of all in Nord Stream2, thus, would have
anced its budget with a relatively low oil out to other countries such as Finland, Western nations, sowing seeds of divi- Russian gas exports. been devastating for Ukraine. In fact,
price at US$45 per barrel against an av- the United Arab Emirates and India sion between the US and Europe. This Ukraine – US stops Nord Stream 2  to summarise, Nord Stream 2 is seen as
erage of nearly US$70 a barrel.  in a manner that created sustained de- compelled the US to retreat and lift the Now Nord Stream 2, which is an expan- Russia’s most daring attempt to break up
sanctions imposed within few months of the EU. Russia has always been making
In the last few months, both print efforts to form an alliance with Germany
and electronic media all over the world and Austria as well as with the Nether-
had started to speculate about every lands and Belgium against Eastern and
likelihood of Russian aggression taking Northern Europe.
place in Ukraine. The United States
(US) also started to convey the message Germany’s minister of Economy and
that the invasion of Ukraine by Russia Energy had made a very clear statement
was imminent. in October 2015 that the Nord Stream
2 project was in their interest and they
Thus, the administration of US Pres- would continue to pursue it to finality.
ident Joe Biden began insisting that its This reported remark, coming just weeks
threat of “severe economic consequenc- after the announcement of Nord Stream
es” would deter Russia from invading 2 in mid-2015, did not leave any doubt
Ukraine. During President Biden’s that Germany considered it as its geo-
meeting with the German Chancellor political project. Germany stood to gain
on 7 February 2022, the US and its allies US$2 billion as transit fees every year. 
were seen stressing that they were united
on the consequences should Russia actu- In January this year alone, while in
ally invade Ukraine.  the middle of this whole crisis, Russia
signed energy agreements with Hungary
However, there was also a feeling as well to further incentivised Germany
that anti-US/UK internal politics of and Austria with potentially lucrative
the European Union (EU) as well as transit fees which could come from such
its symbiotic relationship with Russia, an agreement between Russia and Hun-
may undercut this proclaimed solidarity. gary.
Number of Central European countries
and Germany in particular, who are With the completion of the construc-
largely dependent on Russia for its cheap tion of Nord Stream 2 in September
energy needs and, in turn, competitive 2021, the US realised that it had only a
manufacturing exports could, though si- small window of opportunity before the
lently, be reluctant to take sides with the pipeline got operationalised and it loses
US sanctions on Russia.  the EU’s energy markets completely to
Russian influence. Russia would no lon-
ger need Ukrainian transit pipelines to
meet nearly 80% of its European energy
supply obligations. 

...To page 28

NewsHawks Ukraine Special Report Page 27

Issue 69, 25 February 2022 Henry Kissinger on Ukraine:
How the Ukraine crisis ends!
Vintage Henry Kissinger, a great interna-
tional peacemaker (former US Secretary as part of an East-West confrontation tion, not the domination of a faction. not compete in posturing. less fraught basis.
of State). Here he suggests a way out of the would scuttle for decades any prospect to Russia and the West, and least of all Here is my notion of an outcome To that end, Russia would recognize
present Ukrainian debacle and a solution bring Russia and the West — especially
for Crimea. Both the West (Nati powers) Russia and Europe — into a cooperative the various factions in Ukraine, have not compatible with the values and security Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea.
and the East (Russia) can, in his view, work international system. Ukraine has been acted on this principle. interests of all sides: Ukraine should reinforce Crimea’s au-
together to achieve a lasting peace in the independent for only 23 years; it had pre-
region. Here are the views of the still very viously been under some kind of foreign Each has made the situation worse. • Ukraine should have the right to tonomy in elections held in the presence
cerebral and ebullient Dr Henry Kissinger... rule since the 14th century. Russia would not be able to impose a mil- choose freely its economic and political of international observers.
PUBLIC discussion on Ukraine is all itary solution without isolating itself at a associations, including with Europe.
about confrontation. But do we know Not surprisingly, its leaders have not time when many of its borders are already The process would include removing
where we are going? learned the art of compromise, even less precarious. For the West, the demonisa- • Ukraine should not join Nato, a po- any ambiguities about the status of the
of historical perspective. tion of Vladimir Putin is not a policy; it is sition I took seven years ago, when it last Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol.
In my life, I have seen four wars begun an alibi for the absence of one. came up.
with great enthusiasm and public sup- The politics of post-independence These are principles, not prescriptions.
port, all of which we did not know how Ukraine clearly demonstrates that the Putin should come to realise that, • Ukraine should be free to create any People familiar with the region will know
to end and from three of which we with- root of the problem lies in efforts by whatever his grievances, a policy of mil- government compatible with the ex- that not all of them will be palatable to
drew unilaterally. Ukrainian politicians to impose their will itary impositions would produce another pressed will of its people. all parties.
on recalcitrant parts of the country, first Cold War. For its part, the United States
The test of policy is how it ends, not by one faction, then by the other. needs to avoid treating Russia as an aber- Wise Ukrainian leaders would then The test is not absolute satisfaction but
how it begins. Far too often the Ukrainian rant to be patiently taught rules of con- opt for a policy of reconciliation between balanced dissatisfaction.
issue is posed as a showdown: whether That is the essence of the conflict be- duct established by Washington. the various parts of their country. Inter-
Ukraine joins the East or the West. tween Viktor Yanuk­ ovych and his princi- nationally, they should pursue a posture If some solution based on these or
pal political rival, Yulia Tymo­shenko. Putin is a serious strategist — on the comparable to that of Finland. That na- comparable elements is not achieved, the
But if Ukraine is to survive and thrive, premises of Russian history. tion leaves no doubt about its fierce inde- drift toward confrontation will accelerate.
it must not be either side’s outpost against They represent the two wings of pendence and cooperates with the West The time for that will come soon enough.
the other — it should function as a bridge Ukraine and have not been willing to Understanding US values and psy- in most fields but carefully avoids institu-
between them. share power. A wise US policy toward chology are not his strong suits. tional hostility toward Russia. —The article was first published in
Ukraine would seek a way for the two Washington Post.
Russia must accept that to try to force parts of the country to cooperate with Nor has understanding Russian his-  • It is incompatible with the rules of
Ukraine into a satellite status, and thereby each other. We should seek reconcilia- tory and psychology been a strong point the existing world order for Russia to an- *About the writer: Kissinger was Sec-
move Russia’s borders again, would doom of US policymakers. Leaders of all sides nex Crimea. But it should be possible to retary of State from 1973 to 1977 and
Moscow to repeat its history of self-ful- should return to examining outcomes, put Crimea’s relationship to Ukraine on a was a German immigrant to the US af-
filling cycles of reciprocal pressures with ter the Second World War.
Europe and the United States.

The West must understand that, to
Russia, Ukraine can never be just a for-
eign country. Russian history began in
what was called Kievan-Rus.

The Russian religion spread from
there. Ukraine has been part of Russia for
centuries, and their histories were inter-
twined before then.

Some of the most important battles
for Russian freedom, starting with the
Battle of Poltava in 1709, were fought on
Ukrainian soil.

The Black Sea Fleet — Russia’s means
of projecting power in the Mediterranean
— is based by long-term lease in Sevasto-
pol, in Crimea.

Even such famed dissidents as Alek-
sandr Solzhenitsyn and Joseph Brodsky
insisted that Ukraine was an integral part
of Russian history and, indeed, of Russia.

The European Union must recognise
that its bureaucratic dilatoriness and sub-
ordination of the strategic element to
domestic politics in negotiating Ukraine’s
relationship to Europe contributed to
turning a negotiation into a crisis. Foreign
policy is the art of establishing priorities.

The Ukrainians are the decisive ele-
ment. They live in a country with a com-
plex history and a polyglot composition.
The Western part was incorporated into
the Soviet Union in 1939, when Stalin
and Hitler divided up the spoils.

Crimea, 60% of whose population is
Russian, became part of Ukraine only
in 1954 , when Nikita Khrushchev, a
Ukrainian by birth, awarded it as part of
the 300th-year celebration of a Russian
agreement with the Cossacks.

The West is largely Catholic; the East
largely Russian Orthodox.

The West speaks Ukrainian; the East
speaks mostly Russian.

Any attempt by one wing of Ukraine
to dominate the other — as has been
the pattern — would lead eventually to
civil war or breakup. To treat Ukraine

From page 27 Cause of the Ukraine conflict Europe, paint it as an out-of-control
And thus, America would lose a it will then give anti-Russian politicians military offensive to re-take these sep- the operationalisation process of the rogue state and continue to expand the
trump card it had held since 2014 within the EU an excuse to completely aratist regions and unilaterally try to Nord Stream 2 project.  presence of Nato eastwards, closer and
when the Obama administration staged shelve the Nord Stream 2 project. Thus, break the agreements made under the closer to Russian borders.
a coup d’état and installed a pro-West Russia is without any leverage in this Minsk Accord. Let us not be fooled by all the war
far-right militia-run regime in Kyiv in situation as it desperately needed the and invasion rhetoric in the media, as Besides the above-mentioned goals,
a completely unconstitutional election completed Nord Stream 2. Russian troops thus moved into the this was the goal of the US all along. the pressure created through the rheto-
process.  Reasons behind ongoing manoeuvres  Donbass region on 24 February to de- We need to understand that the crisis ric of Western media and arm twisting
The critics of Nord Stream 2 within As to what these “bold manoeuvres” ter Kyiv from launching an offensive between Russia and Ukraine is a man- from the US has finally succeeded in
EU politics said that Moscow would may be, one can only make a guess against the breakaway states. The Rus- ufactured one to sabotage ties between mustering enough political will within
use the pipeline to arm-twist Europe from the actions of Russia and the US sian military also carried out a series of Russia and Germany, particularly the the EU to stall the progress on Nord
in order to meet Russian geo-political rather than their words. With Moscow precision strikes, taking out Ukrainian lucrative energy partnership which had stream 2 project altogether. 
goals. They expressed concerns that declaring separatist regions of Luhansk military infrastructure and air defence been blossoming between the two for
the project had not been ring-fenced and Donetsk as being recognised as systems. the past couple of decades. So, it seems the Americans have
by German and Russian partners from independent countries, Russia believes come out on top, and have successfully
geo-political concerns. that Kyiv has been planning to use this Russia may have finally decided to The goal behind the media pro- managed to achieve their objective of
Thus, if the US or its artificially in- window of opportunity to mount a take this drastic step since the US has paganda blitz by the Western media reducing the European energy mar-
stalled regime in Kyiv made any bold already responded to the Russian decla- has been to essentially isolate and vil- ket’s dependence on Russian oil and
manoeuvres against Russia, then Mos- ration of 22 February 2022 by pressur- ify Russia on the international stage, gas, even when it could turn out to be
cow would find itself trapped and un- ing their German counterparts to stall stop it from building deeper ties with a costly option for European countries,
able to shut off the EU’s gas exports as especially Germany.

— The Economic Times (India).

Page 28 Ukraine Special Report NewsHawks

ROBERT REICH Issue 69, 25 February 2022

THE US and allies must be clear- Eight sobering realities about
eyed about this: what might the eco- Putin’s invasion of Ukraine
nomic and political ripple effects of
the war be? price increases, by the way: energy ments. Putin’s aggression in Ukraine Ukraine (most Americans do not 8. What is Putin  really  after?  Not
companies like Halliburton, Occi- has already quieted conversations in even know where Ukraine is, let alone just keeping Ukraine out of Nato, be-
WE must do what we can to dental Petroleum and Schlumberger, America about voting rights, filibus- our national interest in protecting it). cause Nato itself isn’t Putin’s biggest
contain Vladimir Putin’s aggression which are now leading the S&P 500. ter reform, and Build Back Better – at And neither Russia nor the US wants worry. After all, Hungary and Poland
in Ukraine. But we also need to be Anyone in favor of putting a windfall least for now. Large-scale war, if it ever to be annihilated in a nuclear holo- are Nato members but are governed
clear-eyed about it, and face the costs. profits tax on them?) comes to that, deadens reform. The caust. in ways that resemble Russia more
Economics cannot be separated from first world war brought the progres- than western democracies. Putin’s
politics, and neither can be separated 4. Will stronger sanctions weaken sive era to a halt. The second ended But international crises such as real fear is liberal democracy, which
from history. Here are eight sobering Putin’s control over  Russia?  Possibly. FDR’s New Deal. Vietnam stopped this one always run the risk of getting poses a direct threat to authoritarian
realities: But they could also have the opposite Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society. out of hand. Russia and the US have “strongmen” like him (just as it did
effect – enabling Putin to fuel Russia’s giant stockpiles of nuclear weapons. to Donald Trump). Putin wants to
1.  Will the economic sanctions suspicions toward the west and stir up Wars and the threat of wars also What if one is set off accidentally? keep liberal democracy far away from
now being put into effect stop Pu- even more Russian nationalism. The legitimate huge military expendi- More likely: what if Russia cyber-at- Russia.
tin from seeking to take over all harshest US measures would cause tures and giant military bureaucra- tacks the US, causing massive dam-
of Ukraine? No. They will complicate the average Russian to pay higher cies. America is already spending age to US utilities, communications, Putin’s means of keeping western
Russia’s global financial transactions prices for food and clothing or de- US$776bn a year on the military, a banks, hospitals, and transportation liberal democracy at bay is not just to
but they will not cripple the Rus- value pensions and savings accounts sum greater than the next 10 giant networks here? What if Russian invade Ukraine, of course. It is also to
sian economy. After Russia annexed because of a crash in the ruble or military powers (including Russia troops threaten Nato members along stoke division inside the west by fuel-
Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in Russian markets, but these might be and China) together. Wars also create Ukraine’s borders? Under these con- ing racist nationalism in western Eu-
2014, the US and its allies imposed seen as necessary sacrifices that rally fat profits for big corporations in war ditions, might the US be willing to rope  and the United States. In this,
economic sanctions which slowed the Russians around Putin. industries. commit ground troops? Trump and Trumpism continue to be
Russian economy temporarily, but Putin’s most important ally.
Russia soon rebounded. Since then, 5. Any other foreign policy conse- The possibility of war also distracts Those who have fought ground
Russia has taken steps to lessen its quences we should be watching? In a the public from failures of domestic and air wars know war is hell. Subse- —The Guardian.
reliance on foreign debt and invest- word: China. Russia’s concern about politics, as the Spanish-American war quent generations tend to forget. By
ment, which means that similar sanc- the west has already led to a rap- did for President William McKinley the eve of the first world war, many *About the writer: Robert Reich,
tions will have less effect. In addition, prochement with China. A strong and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq in America and Britain spoke of the a former US secretary of labour, is
the rise of cryptocurrencies and other alliance between the two most pow- did for George W Bush. (Hopefully, glories of large-scale warfare because professor of public policy at the Uni-
digital assets allow Russia to bypass erful world autocracies could be wor- Biden’s advisers aren’t thinking this so few remembered actual warfare. versity of California at Berkeley and
bank transfers, which are the control risome. way.) Today, most Americans have no di- the author of  Saving Capitalism:
points for sanctions. Bottom line: the rect experience of war. Afghanistan For the Many, Not the Few and The
sanctions already imposed or threat- 6.  What about domestic politics 7.  Could the sanctions lead to and Iraq were abstractions for most Common Good. His new book, The
ened could reduce Russia’s gross do- here in the US? Foreign policy crises real war between Russia and the of us. Vietnam has faded from our System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix
mestic product, but only by a few tend to drive domestic policy off the West? Unlikely. Americans don’t want collective memory. It, is out now.
percentage points. headlines, and weaken reform move- Americans to die in order to protect

2. What sort of sanctions would se-
riously damage Russia? Sanctions on
Russia’s enormous oil and gas exports
could cause substantial harm. Rus-
sia produces 10 million barrels of oil
a day, which is about 10% of global
demand. It ranks third in world oil
production (behind the United States
and Saudi Arabia). It ranks second in
natural gas (behind the US), accord-
ing to the  US Energy Information
Administration.

3. Then why not impose sanctions
on them? Because that would serious-
ly harm consumers in Europe and the
US – pushing up energy prices and
worsening inflation (now running
at  7.5%  annually in the US, a 40-
year high). Although the US imports
very little Russian oil or natural gas,
oil and natural gas markets are glob-
al – which means shortages that push
up prices in one part of the world will
have similar effects elsewhere. The
price of oil in the US is already ap-
proaching US$100 a barrel, up from
about US$65 a year ago. The price of
gas at the pump is averaging US$3.53
a gallon, according to AAA. For most
Americans, that gas-pump price is
the single most important indicator
of inflation, not just because they fuel
their cars with gas but because the
cost is emblazoned in big numbers
outside every gas station in Ameri-
ca. (The biggest beneficiaries of these

NewsHawks Ukraine Special Report Page 29

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

LEGENDARY banker Nathan Mayer What Russia’s invasion of
Rothschild’s supposed advice in the Ukraine means for investors
Napoleonic wars was to “buy when almost continuously from the start of than shop globally for the cheapest. If or that does not get on with the US, account of geopolitical risks, at least
there’s blood in the streets.” It proved Russia’s glasnost policy of opening up companies try to recover the margin by would see Ukraine’s fate as a reason until memories of Russian tanks ad-
right when Russia seized Crimea in in the mid-1980s. raising prices, it means more inflation. to secure nuclear weapons, even if re- vancing on Kyiv fade.
2014, with Russian stocks in ruble If they try to recover it by cutting oth- alistically, Kyiv could never have kept
terms soaring for nearly eight years. Investors have already woken up to er costs, it hurts growth. However it is its nukes. Even countries currently These long-term trends aren’t really
the need for new sources of energy that done, using resources in a less produc- under US protection, such as Japan priced in, and the focus for now is on
This time, the sound of cannons in produce less carbon, and clean ener- tive way is bad for the economy, even and  South Korea, might reasonably short-term issues of Ukrainian resis-
Ukraine  spells bad news not just for gy stocks were the best performers on if it is the right thing to do. worry about the reliability of their ally tance, the extent of Western sanctions
Ukrainians but for the outlook for Thursday. Now governments need new given the state of domestic American and whether the conflict could spread.
investors, too. Western politicians re- sources of energy that don’t rely on for- Geopolitics  is scary again. It isn’t politics, and want nuclear deterrence.
garded Crimea as another part of the eign rivals, so that low-carbon shift only Russia and China. Ukraine gave Investors can’t ignore the short-term
consolidation of Russia’s sphere of could be accelerated — although so up its Soviet-era nuclear missiles in Geopolitical tension has a tendency effects. Already on Thursday markets
influence, on a par with Georgia, but could drilling for gas and oil in friend- return for a promise from Russia, the to spread. After Ukraine, the next in were helped by the expectation that
really not worth getting that worked lier regions. UK and the US “to respect the inde- line is Taiwan, which China insists is the Federal Reserve would lift rates at
up about — it had been Russian until pendence and sovereignty and the ex- a breakaway region. But even if China a less-frantic pace. But the prospect of
1954, after all. The invasion of Ukraine For investors, the impact is unpleas- isting borders of Ukraine.”  dials down the rhetoric across the Tai- a new era of geopolitical rivalry will hit
is different, and makes real the under- ant. Higher energy prices and domes- wan Straits, investors should expect a the market’s long-term prospects, and
current of concern about economic re- tic sourcing hurt profit margins, be- It is easy to see why a small coun- bigger discount on risky assets to take bears close attention.
liance on powerful autocrats and dicta- cause companies have to pay up rather try with powerful ruthless neighbors,
tors who regard the West as the enemy. —Wall Street Journal.

In the short run the question is how Public Lecture
much fear dominates. Anyone who
bought  Russian ruble-denominated RETHINKING
stocks  after the market’s astonishing THE STATE
54% drop in the first two hours of
Thursday’s trading was rewarded by Is Africa Cornered on Resource Extraction
an equally astounding 42% rise in the and The Conondrum of development in
next half an hour. Similarly, US stocks the 21st century?
fell hard at the open, but ended with
the Nasdaq-100 index having its best 27 February, 2022
day since March last year as 2022’s eq-
uity losers turned into winners. Vola- 18:00 - 21:00
tility is likely to remain extreme as the
bloodshed continues and sanctions VENUE: CELEBRATION CENTRE
ramp up.
RSVP/BOOKINGS Prof O Lumumba
Tempting as big short-term price
swings are to the market’s gamblers, Stella Nhira PARTNERS/SPONSORS
investors should pay close attention to +263772344303
the long-run shifts that Russia’s move This poster was designed by Growmatics PBC 0712165422
will intensify, because they proba- Owen Mazoe
bly mean more inflation and slower +263774328655
growth. They come in three parts:
[email protected]
Military spending  reached its low- [email protected]
est as a share of the global economy
in 2018, according to the Stockholm
International Peace Research Insti-
tute. The pressure to spend more was
already visible in Europe and East
Asia as concerns grew about renewed
threats from Russia and China, but the
Ukraine invasion means more spend-
ing on weapons is inevitable.

Defense stocks should benefit,
and aren’t especially expensive, with
Datastream indexes that exclude
big civilian aerospace companies,
which were hammered by the pan-
demic, trading at 15 times predicted
earnings in the US and 10 times in
Europe. In early Thursday trading,
stealth bomber-maker  Northrop
Grumman  had among the  biggest
U.S. stock-price gains, while British
and French defense contractors  BAE
Systems  and  Thales  were among the
best-performing European stocks.

The bigger picture is that more mil-
itary spending means less spending on
other parts of the economy. If unem-
ployment was high this would be less
of a problem, but with the world econ-
omy already struggling to keep up with
demand, it means more long-term up-
ward pressure on inflation.

Less globalisation  is  a natural re-
sult  of a new Cold War, and a major
challenge. Europe is  reliant on Rus-
sia for natural gas, and Russia and
Ukraine together produce one-quarter
of the world’s wheat, as well as one-
third of palladium and the vast bulk
of the neon used in semiconductor
production. China is the world’s big-
gest exporter, and almost every sup-
ply chain relies on Chinese sourcing
for something. Breaking the rest of
the world’s dependence on Russia, let
alone China, is a multidecade project.

However, the trend toward more
local production has been under way
since the 2008 economic meltdown,
with exports falling as a share of gross
domestic product, and was accelerated
by many corporate management teams
after the pandemic created massive
supply-chain problems. Previously,
global trade had grown in importance

Page 30 Ukraine Special Report NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

Invasion of Ukraine: Understanding Russian
concerns and the folly of Western diplomacy

Arthur G.O. sion of Nato into areas of previous and Nato, and join a military alli- ern countries. dation of that independence in the
Mutambara Soviet influence was done in bad ance with Russia or China, will the However, it is not a member of Cold War, after which Russia inher-
faith and in disgraceful violation of USA and Nato fold their arms and ited a vast military-industrial com-
DEVELOPING the future of an understanding struck between respect France's sovereignty? Will Nato and strategically avoids any plex that is still ostensibly intact.
knowledge involves understanding Nato and the Russian Federation at Western Europe accept a member of confrontation or disagreeable con- The so-called sanctions are to be im-
the "relationship between what we the end of the Cold War; that Nato a hostile military alliance right at the duct with the Russians. posed by only the United States and
know and what will happen, for the will welcome the independence of centre of Europe? a few of its Western allies. Really?
purpose of improving both, for ev- the former Soviet states and satellite Why not? The distinguished and revered for-
eryone". states but not expand the military What is good for the goose is good mer US secretary of state, Dr Henry There has been no effort to lob-
alliance into these territories. for the gander. Kissinger, eloquently supports this by for the involvement of the rest
This endeavour demands a ques- view: ‘Ukraine should have the right of the world, such as China (the
tioning and contrarian mindset that In the context of the recent his- It does not make geo-politi- to choose freely its economic and world's second-biggest economy),
challenges conventional wisdom. It tory of the Cold War, Russian de- cal-strategic and military sense, nor political associations, including with the rest of Asia, the rest of Europe,
requires a festival of ideas that cher- mands that Ukraine must remain foster global peace and security to Europe. Latina America and Africa. How can
ishes the diversity of views, becom- independent but should not join have Ukraine as a member of Nato. a country — Russia — still able to
ing a crucible for new knowledge Nato are not entirely unreasonable. Such a scenario presents a patently [However] Ukraine should not trade with all these economies (in
and thought leadership. Ukraine has a nearly 2 000km-long obvious threat to Russian national join Nato … Ukraine should be free fact 80% of the world) be crippled
border with Russia, and its joining security. to create any government compat- by sanctions from a paltry number
What we have witnessed in the of Nato leads to the total encircle- ible with the expressed will of its of Western countries?
public discourse building up to the ment of Russia by its current and In fact, by invading Ukraine now, people.’
events in Ukraine does not augur historical opponents. Putin is being preemptive. When This is so presumptuous and pre-
well for creating intelligent and Ukraine becomes a member of Nato, It is also essential to note that tentious on the part of the United
nuanced understanding of global The posturing by Nato members Russia will be totally encircled and Ukraine can never be just anoth- and its allies. It would be comical if
affairs. The single, unsophisticated that Ukraine is free to join since it thus vulnerable. More importantly, er foreign independent country to it were not a war situation.
and wholly unbalanced narrative we is a sovereign nation is at best naïve any attack on Ukraine then will in- Russia, given the historical relation-
have been receiving from Western if not an outright manifestation of voke a swift Nato military response ship between the two nations. It has Surely, these measly Nato threats
leaders and the leading global news primitive ignorance. by operation of the Nato agreement. been part of Russia for centuries, have not been thought through.
outlets such CNN, BBC and Sky and their histories are inextricably How does one stop a leader, and his
News is not conducive to resolving Sovereignty is not absolute. In Hence Putin’s demand that linked with large pockets of Russian country, bent on invading a country
global challenges. To the contrary, October 1962, when the USSR Ukraine must never be a member of speaking folks in Ukraine in the year by threatening to impose ineffectual
such brazen and self-serving intel- placed nuclear-armed missiles in Nato is reasonable. Both Nato and 2022. sanctions? Are those measures not a
lectual ineptitude inflames conflicts. Cuba, just 90 miles from the United the people of Ukraine must have ac- small price to pay for the big prize?
States, the Americans recoiled with cepted this position. This objective reality must inform
We need to create and embrace anger leading to the Cuban Missile Western intellectuals, pundits and This failure of diplomacy is not
new knowledge and innovative Crisis. Cuba was a sovereign coun- This analysis should be clear to all leaders. helped by global media outlets
frameworks that prevent wars and try with the right to have whatever peace-loving people. Now, what of Western diplomacy which do not question these foolish
human strife globally. weapons they wanted on their terri- So, what should be done? What with respect to the crisis unfolding foreign policy pronouncements but
tory. could have been done? in Ukraine? act as echo chambers of the unintel-
The future of diplomacy must be Why was this sovereignty not re- While asserting their sovereignty The stance of Nato and Western ligent posturing by Western leaders.
reimagined and reinvented. spected? and remaining an independent na- leaders has been that: ‘If Russia In their analysis of the unfolding
There was a threat to US national se- tion, the people of Ukraine and their invades Ukraine, there will be no crisis, the key media outlets do not
For a start, the whole mainstream curity, and hence that part of Cuban leaders must commit to NOT join- military response from us. We will engage experts or scholars with dif-
discourse on Ukraine is ahistorical. sovereignty was not respected. ing Nato. Realpolitik demands this. impose ‘crippling’ sanctions against ferent viewpoints.
It is decontextualised. Ukraine was They will not be the first to follow Russia.’ What a miserably pathetic
part of the USSR, the superpower at This is common sense. this pragmatic posture. position! In fact, it is encouragement They just churn out the same un-
the centre of the Warsaw Pact – an In the end, Nikita Khrushchev or an invitation for an invasion! sophisticated narrative where one
Eastern military alliance established backed down, and the Russian mis- Finland is an example of what cannot distinguish the anchor/jour-
in opposition to Nato, a Western siles were removed from Cuba. Ukraine should do. Finland is fierce- For a start, what is the basis of the nalist from the subject expert.
military alliance. This was the con- If today France was to exercise its ly unapologetic about its indepen- assumption that the sanctions will
figuration that constituted the mili- sovereign right, pull out of the EU dence and works closely with West- be crippling? The Russian economy There is total irrational jingoism
tary arithmetic of the Cold War. is relatively robust and largely inde- in the main media outlets.
pendent of the West, with the foun-
Between 1989 and 1992, the The journalists are emotionally
Warsaw Pact collapsed, and the attached to the positions of their
USSR disintegrated with the Sovi- national governments. Shameful,
et republics becoming independent indeed. We need informed and in-
nations such as Russia, Ukraine, novative diplomacy enabled by vi-
Georgia, Armenia, Estonia and Be- brant, ethical, critical and profes-
larus. Russia remained a superpower, sional journalism and scholarship.
having inherited the bulk of the So-
viet military and industrial strength, Yes, the crisis in Ukraine could
particularly a potent nuclear arsenal. have been avoided if a different un-
derstanding of global affairs was at
In 1999, former Warsaw Pact play and world leaders had a bet-
members Poland, Hungary and the ter understanding of history and
Czech Republic joined Nato, with geo-strategic considerations.
vicious Russian opposition to the
move. Another Nato expansion Journalists and scholars have a
came with the accession of Bulgaria, duty and an obligation to enrich the
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Roma- discourse around global challenges
nia, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Russia, a and not become cheerleaders of ab-
global superpower, felt encircled by surdities.
its former Nato adversaries. Clearly,
given the history of the Cold War, We do not want war. We should
Russia's security concerns are under- do all we can to avoid war. Unfortu-
standable. nately, given the failure by Western
leaders to understand and resolve
A particularly mischievous am- Russia’s concerns and the pitiful
bition of the Western alliance was folly of their empty and ineffectual
to control the Black Sea fleet, thus threats, the invasion of Ukraine on
completely undermining Russia. 24 February 2022 was inevitable.
Putin stopped that adventure by
annexing Crimea. It is instructive We must create a new body of
to note that the ill-conceived expan- knowledge that will determine the
future of diplomacy — foreign pol-
icy positions that prevent or effec-
tively manage conflict and not en-
able wars.

*About the writer: Professor Ar-
thur Guseni Oliver Mutambara
is an intellectual and Zimbabwe’s
former deputy prime minister.

NewsHawks Ukraine Special Report Page 31

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

RUSSIA outmatches Ukraine in reg- Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Alexei Druzhinin/AFP via Getty Images
ular military manpower by almost 5
to 1. Russia-Ukraine crisis: How
big are their militaries?
Russia has more military firepower soldiers compared with Ukraine's 125 the amount of artillery, six times the still only a tenth of the number pos- In recent weeks, Nato countries
than Ukraine - covering the land, air 600. number of tanks, and almost seven sessed by Russia. have been supplying Ukraine with ad-
and sea. times more armoured vehicles than ditional "lethal aid", such as the UK's
Ukraine also has 900 000 reserve the Ukrainians. Russia also has a strong advantage provision of 2 000 anti-tank weapons.
It has 900 000 active military per- personnel - those who have received with long-range weaponry, possessing
sonnel across its forces, compared with military training in the last five years In the air, it is a similar story: Russia over 500 land-based ballistic missile Yet while these shipments are de-
Ukraine's 196 600. - compared with Russia's two million. has 10 times the number of attack air- launchers. signed to make any Russian invasion
craft and helicopters. costlier to them, few experts believe
It is reflective of a wider military While these ratios are both about Some analysts think a Russian these weapons would change the im-
dominance that stems from a Russian 2.2 to 1, the Russians are much better The Ukrainians do have over 400 attack would rely upon long-range mediate outcome of a Russian attack.
defence budget that dwarfs Ukraine's. placed when it comes to equipment. surface-to-air missile launchers that weaponry such as cruise missiles to tar-
could target aircraft - although this is get key Ukrainian sites from distance. —Sky News.
The imbalance is greatest at sea, They have more than three times
with Russia having 10 times the num-
ber of navy personnel.

The Russian navy operates 74 war-
ships and 51 submarines, compared
with Ukraine's two warships.

On land, the balance is closer. The
Russian army is made up of 280 000

TAKE WHY YOU SHOULD
RESPONSIBILITY STAY 3 FEET AWAY

PREVENT FROM PEOPLE
THE SPREAD
OF COVID-19

Ÿ You can’t immediately identify who has the
virus..

Ÿ To reduce the spread of the virus if you are
already infected.

Ÿ To avoid droplets from an infected person
when they sneeze or cough.

Page 32 Ukraine Special Report NewsHawks

RUVIMBO MUCHENJE Issue 69, 25 February 2022

THE government has advised more Find your way out, Zimbabwe
than 200 Zimbabweans trapped in tells trapped locals in Ukraine
Ukraine to find their way to near-
est safe countries where they will be President Emmerson Mnangagwa.
able to provide assistance, but the
statement has angered many who zone, under martial law? Go there "All I know is we're not safe and tection. We can't get out through seen before”.
feel the Harare authorities are plac- and get them out,” Moyo said. we've not received any assistance," any border. My appeal is to evacu- While Zimbabwe has remained
ing the lives of desperate citizens at she told The NewsHawks. ate us," Charuvira pleaded.  
risk. “Because available transport to mum on its position regarding the
Poland is only by road, surely the She later told German media Ukraine’s leaders have said that Russia-Ukraine war, neighbouring
President Vladimir Putin’s Rus- Zimbabwe embassies in Germany outlet DW that the offer did not the invasion amounts to a “full- South Africa has pronounced its
sia has invaded Ukraine, arguing and Russia must join hands and help in the current situation be- scale war” and that Putin’s inten- position on the matter with its In-
the invasion is meant to protect the deploy consular staff in Ukraine as cause there was no way to leave tion is to destroy Ukraine as a state.  ternational Relations and Coopera-
breakaway regions in the east of the soon as possible to coordinate the Ukraine at the moment.  tion minister Naledi Pandor calling
country. evacuation. Students in Odessa, All of the living former US pres- for the easing of tensions between
which is far from Poland, should "There is no transportation — idents, with the notable exception Russia and Ukraine. 
Ukrainian President Volodymyr be evacuated to nearby Moldova,” there are no buses from Kyiv to of Donald Trump, have issued for-
Zelenskyy yesterday confirmed that Moyo added. other cities," Charuvira was quoted mal statements condemning Pu- “South Africa’s position has been
at least 137 people have been killed as saying. tin's invasion of Ukraine. (and is) continuing to encourage all
so far, including civilians with the Some of the Zimbabwean stu- the parties to strengthen all diplo-
United Nations refugee agency say- dents said there was no way for Zimbabwe does not have an em- “Putin chose this war, and now matic efforts to avoid an escalation
ing moreu than 100 000 Ukraini- them to evacuate to places suggest- bassy in Ukraine and its closest he and his country will bear the of tensions, and work towards an
ans have been displaced. ed by the government. diplomatic representation is in the consequences,” US President Joe inclusive, sustainable and peaceful
German capital, Berlin.  Biden said.   solution based on cooperation and
Thousands are fleeing to neigh- One of the students, Mellisa dialogue,” she said.
bouring countries. Charuvira, told The NewsHawks "We have called the ambassador Putin has warned the interna-
that the government’s offer was un- of Zimbabwe in Berlin, and she tional community that any attempt The Zimbabwean government
But the Zimbabwean govern- helpful. said she is organising something. to intervene will be met with “con- views itself as an ally of Russia.
ment’s reaction has unsettled citi- Right now we don't have any pro- sequences that the world has never
zens, who say it endangers lives.

“Zimbabwe embassy in Ber-
lin has registered 256 citizens in
Ukraine, advised nationals to leave
Ukraine if it is safe to do so and
travel to any third country. Repre-
sentations were made to different
embassies to allow safe passage of
our nationals,” Information perma-
nent secretary Ndabaningi Mang-
wana said yesterday.

“Officers being dispatched to
Poland subject to authority being
granted, to assist in coordinating
those going there.  The embassy
can pay for hotels and buy tickets
from Berlin. Nationals advised to
maintain contact with the embassy
so decisions can be made faster.” 

Mangwana said help will only be
extended given when the Zimba-
bweans reach Ukraine’s neighbour-
ing countries.

“Help will be given when nation-
als have accessed any of the follow-
ing third countries: Poland, Roma-
nia, Slovakia, Hungary, Moldova
and Russia. Currently there are no
flights out of Ukraine so travel has
to be by other means. Stay Safe.”

Exiled former cabinet minister
Jonathan Moyo criticised the gov-
ernment's plan.

“Based on verifiable reports from
Ukraine, you have asked over 200
Zimbabwean students there to reg-
ister in a WhatsApp group you have
set up and to evacuate themselves to
Poland. Seriously? You expect stu-
dents to self-evacuate from a war-

NewsHawks Ukraine Special Report Page 33

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

ROBERT KAGAN Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Alexei Druzhinin/AFP via Getty Images

LET'S assume for a moment that What we can expect after 
Vladimir Putin succeeds in gaining Putin’s conquest of Ukraine
full control of Ukraine, as he shows One likely flash point will be Kalin- Warsaw Pact, despite the occasional directly coordinate their strategies. Americans and their democratic allies
every intention of doing. What are the ingrad. The headquarters of the Rus- rebellion, were effectively run from Nevertheless, each benefited from the in Europe and Asia will have to decide,
strategic and geopolitical consequenc- sian Baltic Fleet, this city and its sur- Moscow. other’s actions. Germany’s advances in again, whether that world is tolerable.
es? rounding territory were cut off from Europe emboldened the Japanese to
the rest of Russia when the Soviet Today, Putin seeks at the very least take greater risks in East Asia; Japan’s A final word about Ukraine: It will
The first will be a new front line of Union broke up. Since then, Russians a two-tier Nato, in which no allied advances gave Adolf Hitler confidence likely cease to exist as an independent
conflict in Central Europe. Until now, have been able to access Kaliningrad forces are deployed on former Warsaw that a distracted United States would entity. Putin and other Russians have
Russian forces could deploy only as only through Poland and Lithuania. Pact territory. The inevitable negotia- not risk a two-front conflict. long insisted it is not a nation at all; it
far as Ukraine’s eastern border, several Expect a Russian demand for a direct tions over this and other elements of a is part of Russia. Setting history and
hundred miles from Poland and oth- corridor that would put strips of the new European security “architecture” Today, it should be obvious to Xi sentiment aside, it would be bad strat-
er Nato countries to Ukraine’s west. countries under Russian control. But would be conducted with Russian Jinping that the United States has its egy for Putin to allow Ukraine to con-
When the Russians complete their even that would be just one piece of forces poised all along Nato’s eastern hands full in Europe. Whatever his tinue to exist as a nation after all the
operation, they will be able to station what is sure to be a new Russian strat- borders and therefore amid real un- calculus before Russia’s invasion of trouble and expense of an invasion.
forces — land, air and missile — in egy to delink the Baltics from Nato by certainty about Nato’s ability to resist Ukraine, he can conclude only that That is a recipe for endless conflict.
bases in western Ukraine as well as Be- demonstrating that the alliance cannot Putin’s demands. his chances of successfully pulling After Russia installs a government,
larus, which has effectively become a any longer hope to protect those coun- something off, either in Taiwan or the expect Ukraine’s new Moscow-direct-
Russian satrapy. tries. This takes place, moreover, as Chi- South China Sea, have gone up.  ed rulers to seek the eventual legal in-
na threatens to upend the strategic corporation of Ukraine into Russia, a
Russian forces will thus be arrayed Indeed, with Poland, Hungary and balance in East Asia, perhaps with an While some argue that US policies process already underway in Belarus.
along Poland’s entire 650-mile east- five other Nato members sharing a attack of some kind against Taiwan. drove Moscow and Beijing together, it
ern border, as well as along the east- border with a new, expanded Russia, From a strategic point of view, Taiwan is really their shared desire to disrupt Some analysts today imagine a
ern borders of Slovakia and Hungary the ability of the United States and can either be a major obstacle to Chi- the international order that creates a Ukrainian insurgency sprouting up
and the northern border of Romania. Nato to defend the alliance’s eastern nese regional hegemony, as it is now; common interest. against Russian domination. Perhaps.
(Moldova will likely be brought under flank will be seriously diminished. or it can be the first big step toward But the Ukrainian people cannot
Russian control, too, when Russian Chinese military dominance in East Long ago, American defence strat- be expected to fight a full-spectrum
troops are able to form a land bridge The new situation could force a Asia and the Western Pacific, as it egy was premised on the possibility of war with whatever they have in their
from Crimea to Moldova’s breakaway significant adjustment in the meaning would be after a takeover, peaceful or such a two-front conflict. But since homes. To have any hope against Rus-
province of Transnistria.) Russia with- and purpose of the alliance. Putin has otherwise. Were Beijing somehow able the early 1990s, the United States has sian occupation forces, an insurgency
out Ukraine is, as former secretary of been clear about his goals: He wants to to force the Taiwanese to accept Chi- gradually dismantled that force. The will need to be supplied and support-
state Dean Acheson once said of the re-establish Russia’s traditional sphere nese sovereignty, the rest of Asia would two-war doctrine was whittled down ed from neighbouring countries. Will
Soviet Union, “Upper Volta with rock- of influence in Eastern and Central panic and look to the United States for and then officially abandoned in the Poland play that role, with Russian
ets.” Russia with Ukraine is a different Europe. Some are willing to concede help. 2012 defence policy guidance. Wheth- forces directly across the border? Will
strategic animal entirely. as much, but it is worth recalling that er that trend will be reversed and de- the Baltics? Or Hungary? And if they
when the Russian empire was at its These simultaneous strategic chal- fence spending increased now that the do, will the Russians not feel justified
The most immediate threat will be height, Poland did not exist as a coun- lenges in two distant theatres are US genuinely faces a two-theatre crisis in attacking the insurgents’ supply
to the Baltic states. Russia already bor- try; the Baltics were imperial holdings; reminiscent of the 1930s, when Ger- remains to be seen. But it is time to routes, even if they happen to lie in the
ders Estonia and Latvia directly and and southeastern Europe was contest- many and Japan sought to overturn start imagining a world where Russia territory of neighboring Nato mem-
touches Lithuania through Belarus ed with Austria and Germany. During the existing order in their respective effectively controls much of Eastern bers? It is wishful thinking to imagine
and through its outpost in Kalinin- the Soviet period, the nations of the regions. They were never true allies, Europe and China controls much of that this conflict stops with Ukraine.
grad. did not trust each other and did not East Asia and the Western Pacific.

Even before the invasion, some
questioned whether Nato could actu-
ally defend its Baltic members from a
Russian attack. Once Russia has com-
pleted its conquest of Ukraine, that
question will acquire new urgency.

Page 34 Ukraine Special Report NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

Russia’s perpetual geopolitics manoeuvres

This article was written well before Rus- buccaneer capitalist economy. But the mism and human capital — spheres in Adolf Hitler. displayed a kind of defensive aggres-
sia’s current invasion of Ukraine, but impetus behind Russian grand strate- which Russia has also declined. Rus- a heavenly mandated exceptionalism, siveness.
provides important historical and geo- gy had not changed. And over the last sian dollar-denominated GDP peaked as did England and France through-
political context and insight to explain decade, Russian President Vladimir in 2013 at slightly more than US$2 out much of their histories. Germany Whatever the original causes be-
Vladimir Putin’s return to the imperial Putin has returned to the trend of re- trillion and has now dropped to about and Japan had their exceptionalism hind early Russian expansionism —
designs and his ongoing aggressive geo- lying on the state to manage the gulf US$1.2 trillion thanks to cratering oil bombed out of them. Russia’s is re- much of which was unplanned —
strategic manouvres. between Russia and the more power- prices and ruble exchange rates. To markably resilient. It has been ex- many in the country’s political class
ful West. be sure, the contraction measured in pressed differently over time — the came to believe over time that only
STEPHEN KOTKIN purchasing power parity has been far Third Rome, the pan-Slavic kingdom, further expansion could secure the
Russian foreign policy has long less dramatic. But in comparative dol- the world headquarters of the Com- earlier acquisitions. Russian securi-
FOR half a millennium, Russian for- been characterised by soaring ambi- lar-denominated terms, Russia’s econ- munist International. Today’s version ty has thus traditionally been partly
eign policy has been characterised by tions that have exceeded the country’s omy amounts to a mere 1.5% of glob- involves  Eurasianism, a movement predicated on moving outward, in the
soaring ambitions that have exceeded capabilities. al GDP and is just one-15th the size launched among Russian émigrés in name of pre-empting external attack.
the country’s capabilities. Beginning of the US economy. Russia also suf- 1921 that imagined Russia as neither
with the reign of Ivan the Terrible in With the breakup of the Soviet fers the dubious distinction of being European nor Asian but a sui generis Today, too, smaller countries on
the 16th century, Russia managed to Union in 1991, Moscow lost some the  most corrupt developed country fusion. Russia’s borders are viewed less as po-
expand at an average rate of 50 square two million square miles of sovereign in the world, and its resource-extract- tential friends than as potential beach-
miles per day for hundreds of years, territory — more than the equivalent ing, rent-seeking economic system has The sense of having a special mis- heads for enemies. In fact, this senti-
eventually covering one-sixth of the of the entire European Union (1.7 reached a dead end. sion has contributed to Russia’s pau- ment was strengthened by the Soviet
earth’s landmass.  million square miles) or India (1.3 city of formal alliances and reluctance collapse. Unlike Stalin, Putin does not
million). Russia forfeited the share of The geopolitical environment, to join international bodies except as recognise the existence of a Ukrainian
By 1900, it was the world’s fourth- Germany it had conquered in World meanwhile, has become only more an exceptional or dominant member. nation separate from a Russian one.
or fifth-largest industrial power and War II and its other satellites in East- challenging over time, with continu- It furnishes Russia’s people and lead- But like Stalin, he views all nominally
the largest agricultural producer in Eu- ern Europe — all of which are now ing US global supremacy and the dra- ers with pride, but it also fuels resent- independent borderland states, now
rope. But its per capita GDP reached inside the Western military alliance, matic rise of China. And the spread of ment toward the West for supposedly including Ukraine, as weapons in the
only 20% of the United Kingdom’s along with some advanced former re- radical political Islam poses concerns, underappreciating Russia’s uniqueness hands of Western powers intent on
and 40% of Germany’s. Imperial Rus- gions of the Soviet Union, such as the as about 15% of Russia’s 142 million and importance. Thus is psychologi- wielding them against Russia.
sia’s average life span at birth was just Baltic states. Other former Soviet pos- citizens are Muslim and some of the cal alienation added to the institu-
30 years — higher than British India’s sessions, such as Azerbaijan, Georgia, country’s predominantly Muslim re- tional divergence driven by relative Russia is the most corrupt devel-
(23) but the same as Qing China’s and and Ukraine, cooperate closely with gions are seething with unrest and economic backwardness. As a result, oped country in the world, and its
far below the United Kingdom’s (52), the West on security matters.  lawlessness. For Russian elites who Russian governments have generally resource-extracting, rent-seeking eco-
Japan’s (51), and Germany’s (49). assume that their country’s status and oscillated between seeking closer ties nomic system has reached a dead end.
Russian literacy in the early twentieth Notwithstanding the  forcible an- even survival depend on matching the with the West and recoiling in fury at
century remained below 33% — low- nexation of Crimea, the war in eastern West, the limits of the current course perceived slights, with neither tenden- A final driver of Russian foreign
er than that of Great Britain in the Ukraine, and the de facto occupation should be evident. cy able to prevail permanently. policy has been the country’s perenni-
eighteenth century. These compari- of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Rus- The bear’s necessities al quest for a strong state. In a danger-
sons were all well known by the Rus- sia has had to retreat from most of Russians have always had an abid- Yet another factor that has shaped ous world with few natural defences,
sian political establishment, because Catherine the Great’s so-called New ing sense of living in a providential Russia’s role in the world has been the the thinking runs, the only guarantor
its members travelled to Europe fre- Russia, in the southern steppes, and country with a special mission — an country’s unique geography. It has of Russia’s security is a powerful state
quently and measured their country from Transcaucasia. And apart from attitude often traced to Byzantium, no natural borders, except the Pacific willing and able to act aggressively in
against the world’s leaders (something a few military bases, Russia is out of which Russia claims as an inheritance. Ocean and the Arctic Ocean (the lat- its own interests. A strong state has
that is true today, as well). Central Asia, too. In truth, most great powers have ex- ter of which is now becoming a con- also been seen as the guarantor of do-
hibited similar feelings. Both China tested space, too). Buffeted through- mestic order, and the result has been a
History records three fleeting mo- Russia is still the largest country in and the United States have claimed out its history by often turbulent trend captured in the nineteenth-cen-
ments of remarkable Russian ascen- the world, but it is much smaller than developments in East Asia, Europe, tury historian Vasily Klyuchevsky’s
dancy: Peter the Great’s victory over it was, and the extent of a country’s and the Middle East, Russia has felt one-line summation of a millennium
Charles XII and a declining Sweden territory matters less for great-power perennially vulnerable and has often of Russian history: “The state grew
in the early 1700s, which implanted status these days than economic dyna- fat, but the people grew lean.”
Russian power on the Baltic Sea and
in Europe; Alexander I’s victory over a Paradoxically, however, the efforts
wildly overstretched Napoleon in the to build a strong state have invariably
second decade of the nineteenth cen- led to subverted institutions and per-
tury, which brought Russia to Paris as sonalistic rule. Peter the Great, the
an arbiter of great-power affairs; and original strong-state builder, emascu-
Stalin’s victory over the maniacal gam- lated individual initiative, exacerbated
bler Adolf Hitler in the 1940s, which inbred distrust among officials, and
gained Russia Berlin, a satellite empire fortified patron-client tendencies.
in Eastern Europe, and a central role His coercive modernisation brought
shaping the global post-war order. indispensable new industries, but his
project for a strengthened state actu-
These high-water marks aside, how- ally entrenched personal whim. This
ever, Russia has almost always been a syndrome characterised the reigns of
relatively weak great power. It lost the successive Romanov autocrats and
Crimean War of 1853-56, a defeat those of Lenin and, especially, Stalin,
that ended the post-Napoleonic glow and it has persisted to this day. Un-
and forced a belated emancipation of bridled personalism tends to render
the serfs. It lost the Russo-Japanese decision-making on Russian grand
War of 1904-5, the first defeat of a strategy opaque and potentially capri-
European country by an Asian one in cious, for it ends up conflating state
the modern era. It lost World War I, a interests with the political fortunes of
defeat that caused the collapse of the one person.
imperial regime. And it lost the Cold Must the past be prologue? 
War, a defeat that helped cause the Anti-Western resentment and Russian
collapse of the imperial regime’s Sovi- patriotism appear particularly pro-
et successor. nounced in Putin’s personality and
life experiences, but a different Rus-
Throughout, the country has been sian government not run by former
haunted by its relative backward- KGB types would still be confronted
ness, particularly in the military and with the challenge of weakness vis-à-
industrial spheres. This has led to re- vis the West and the desire for a spe-
peated frenzies of government activity cial role in the world. Russia’s foreign
designed to help the country catch policy orientation, in other words, is
up, with a familiar cycle of coercive as much a condition as a choice. But
state-led industrial growth followed if Russian elites could somehow rede-
by stagnation. Most analysts had as- fine their sense of exceptionalism and
sumed that this pattern had ended for put aside their unwinnable compe-
good in the 1990s, with the abandon- tition with the West, they could set
ment of Marxism-Leninism and the their country on a less costly, more
arrival of competitive elections and a promising course.

NewsHawks Ukraine Special Report Page 35

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

Russian governments have gener- its special mission in the world, re- business with Russia only provided means and has produced few positive however, is the West really able to
ally oscillated between seeking closer calibrating its national idea to fit its they have an anchor in the West.  results. The temporary high afforded protect the territorial integrity of the
ties with the West and recoiling in reduced role and joining with lesser by a cunning and ruthless  policy  in states inside Moscow’s desired sphere
fury at perceived slights. powers and small countries in Europe Other states that are more econom- Syria’s civil war should not obscure of influence. And bluffing will not
on terms of equality. ically dependent on Russia, such as the severity of Russia’s recurrent stra- work. So what should be done?
Superficially, this appeared to Belarus and Kazakhstan, see risks in tegic bind — one in which weakness
be what was happening during the Whether even a transformed Rus- partnering with a country that not and grandeur combine to produce an There has actually never been a
1990s, before Putin took the helm, sia would be accepted into and merge only lacks a model for sustained de- autocrat who tries to leap forward by period of sustained good relations be-
and in Russia a powerful “stab in the well with Europe is an open question. velopment but also, in the wake of concentrating power, which results in tween Russia and the United States.
back” story has taken shape about how But the start of the process would its annexation of Crimea, might have a worsening of the very strategic di-
it was an arrogant West that spurned need to be a Russian leadership able territorial designs on them.  lemma he is supposed to be solving. Some invoke George Kennan and
Russian overtures over the last couple to get its public to accept permanent What are the implications of this for call for a revival of  containment, ar-
of decades rather than the reverse. But retrenchment and agree to embark on A ballyhooed “strategic partner- Western policy? How should Wash- guing that external pressure will keep
such a view downplays the dynamic an arduous domestic restructuring. ship” with China, meanwhile, has ington manage relations with a nucle- Russia at bay until its authoritarian
inside Russia.  Outsiders should be humble as they predictably produced little Chinese ar- and cyber-armed country whose regime liberalises or  collapses. And
contemplate how wrenching such an financing or investment to compen- rulers seek to restore its lost domi- certainly, many of Kennan’s insights
Certainly, Washington exploited adjustment would be, especially with- sate for  Western sanctions. And all nance, albeit a lesser version; undercut remain pertinent, such as his empha-
Russia’s enfeeblement during the ten- out a hot-war defeat and military oc- the while, China has openly and vig- European unity; and make the coun- sis in the “Long Telegram” that he
ure of Russian President Boris Yeltsin cupation. orously been building its own Greater try “relevant,” come what may? dispatched from Moscow 70 years
and beyond. But it is not necessary to Eurasia, from the South China Sea ago on the deep insecurity that drove
have supported every aspect of West- It took France and the United through inner Asia to Europe, at Rus- In this context, it is useful to rec- Soviet behaviour. 
ern policy in recent decades to see Pu- Kingdom decades to relinquish their sia’s expense and with its cooperation. ognise that there has actually never
tin’s evolving stance less as a reaction own senses of exceptionalism and been a period of sustained good rela- Adopting his thinking now would
to external moves than as the latest global responsibility, and some would Today’s muscular Russia is ac- tions between Russia and the United entail maintaining or  intensifying
example of a deep, recurring pattern argue that their elites have still not ful- tually in structural decline, and States. (Declassified documents reveal sanctions  in response to Russian vi-
driven by internal factors. What pre- ly done so. But even they have high Putin’s actions have unwittingly that even the World War II alliance olations of international law, shoring
cluded post-Soviet Russia from join- GDPs, top-rated universities, finan- yielded a Ukraine more ethnically ho- was fraught with deeper distrust and up Western alliances politically, and
ing Europe as just another country or cial power, and global languages. Rus- mogeneous and more Western-orient- greater cross-purposes than has gener- upgrading Nato’s military readiness.
forming an (inevitably) unequal part- sia has none of that. It does possess a ed than ever before.  ally been understood.)  But a new containment could become
nership with the United States was the permanent veto in the UN Security a trap, re-elevating Russia to the status
country’s abiding great-power pride Council, as well as one of the world’s Moscow has tense relations with This has been due not to misun- of rival superpower, Russia’s quest for
and sense of special mission. Until two foremost doomsday arsenals and nearly every one of its neighbours and derstandings, miscommunication, or which has helped bring about the cur-
Russia brings its aspirations into line world-class cyberwarfare capabilities. even with its biggest trading partners, hurt feelings but rather to divergent rent confrontation.
with its actual capabilities, it cannot These, plus its unique geography, do including most recently Turkey. Even fundamental values and state interests,
become a “normal” country, no mat- give it a kind of global reach. And yet, Germany, Russia’s most important as each country has defined them. For Once again, patient resolve is the
ter what the rise in its per capita GDP Russia is living proof that hard power foreign policy counterpart and one Russia, the highest value is the state; key. It is not clear how long Russia
or other quantitative indicators is. is brittle without the other dimensions of its most important economic part- for the United States, it is individual can play its weak hand in opposition
of great-power status. However much ners, has had enough, backing sanc- liberty, private property, and human to the United States and the EU,
Let’s be clear: Russia is a remarkable Russia might insist on being acknowl- tions at a cost to its own domestic rights, usually set out in opposition frightening its neighbours, alienating
civilisation of tremendous depth. It is edged as an equal to the United States, situation. to the state. So expectations should be its most important trading partners,
not the only former absolute monar- the European Union, or even China, kept in check. Equally important, the ravaging its own business climate, and
chy that has had trouble attaining po- it is not, and it has no near- or medi- “It looks like the so-called ‘winners’ United States should neither exagger- haemorrhaging talent. At some point,
litical stability or that retains a statist um-term prospect of becoming one. of the Cold War are determined to ate the Russian threat nor underplay feelers will be put out for some sort
bent (think of France, for example). Something completely different  have it all and reshape the world into its own many advantages. of rapprochement, just as sanctions
And Russia is right in thinking that What are Russia’s concrete alternatives a place that could better serve their fatigue will eventually kick in, cre-
the post–Cold War settlement was to a European-style restructuring and interests alone,” Putin  lectured  the Russia today is not a revolutionary ating the possibility for some sort of
unbalanced, even unfair. But that was orientation? It has a very long history annual Valdai Discussion Club gath- power threatening to overthrow the deal. That said, it is also possible that
not because of any intentional humil- of being on the Pacific — and failing to ering in October 2014, following his international order. Moscow operates the present standoff might not end
iation or betrayal. It was the inevitable become an Asian power. What it can Crimean annexation. But what poses within a familiar great-power school anytime soon, since Russia’s pursuit
result of the West’s decisive victory in claim is predominance in its region. an existential threat to Russia is not of international relations, one that of a Eurasian sphere of influence is a
the contest with the Soviet Union.  There is no match for its conventional Nato or the West but Russia’s own re- prioritises room for manoeuvre over matter of national identity not readi-
military among the other Soviet suc- gime. Putin helped rescue the Russian morality and assumes the inevitabili- ly susceptible to material cost-benefit
In a multidimensional global rival- cessor states, and the latter (with the state but has put it back on a trajec- ty of conflict, the supremacy of hard calculations.
ry — political, economic, cultural, exception of the Baltic states) are also tory of stagnation and even possible power, and the cynicism of others’
technological, and military — the economically dependent on Russia to failure. The president and his clique motives. The trick will be to hold a firm
Soviet Union lost across the board. various degrees. But regional military have repeatedly announced the dire line when necessary — such as refus-
Mikhail Gorbachev’s Kremlin chose supremacy and economic leverage in necessity of prioritizing economic and In certain places and on certain is- ing to recognise a privileged Russian
to bow out gracefully rather than pull Eurasia cannot underwrite enduring human development, yet they shrink sues, Russia has the ability to thwart sphere even when Moscow is able to
the world down along with it, but that great-power status. Putin has failed to from the far-reaching internal restruc- U.S. interests, but it does not even enact one militarily — while offering
extraordinarily benevolent endgame make the  Eurasian Economic Union turing necessary to make that happen, remotely approach the scale of the negotiations only from a position of
did not change the nature of the out- successful — but even if all potential instead pouring resources into mili- threat posed by the Soviet Union, so strength and avoiding stumbling into
come or its causes — something that members joined and worked together, tary modernisation. What Russia real- there is no need to respond to it with unnecessary and counterproductive
post-Soviet Russia has never really ac- their combined economic capabilities ly needs to compete effectively and se- a new Cold War. confrontations on most other issues.
cepted. would still be relatively small. cure a stable place in the international Someday, Russia’s leaders may come
order is transparent, competent, and The real challenge today boils down to terms with the glaring limits of
The outside world cannot force Until Russia brings its aspirations accountable government; a real civil to Moscow’s desire for Western recog- standing up to the West and seeking
such a psychological recognition, into line with its actual capabilities, service; a genuine parliament; a pro- nition of a Russian sphere of influence to dominate Eurasia. Until then, Rus-
what the Germans call  Vergangen- it cannot become a “normal” country. fessional and impartial judiciary; free in the former Soviet space (with the sia will remain not another necessary
heitsbewältigung — “coming to terms and professional media; and a vigor- exception of the Baltic states). This is crusade to be won but a problem to
with the past.” But there is no reason Russia is a big market, and that ous, non-political crackdown on cor- the price for reaching accommodation be managed.
it could not come about organically, can be attractive, but neighbouring ruption. with Putin — something advocates of
among Russians themselves. Even- countries see risks as well as rewards How to avoid bearbaiting  such accommodation do not always *About the writer: Stephen Kot-
tually, the country could try to fol- in bilateral trade with the country. Russia’s current leadership continues acknowledge frankly. kin is Professor of History and Inter-
low something like the trajectory of Estonia, Georgia, and Ukraine, for to make the country bear the burdens national Affairs at Princeton Uni-
France, which retains a lingering sense example, are generally willing to do of a truculent and independent foreign It was the sticking point that pre- versity and a Fellow at the Hoover
of exceptionalism yet has made peace policy that is beyond the country’s vented enduring cooperation after Institution at Stanford University,
with its loss of its external empire and 9/11, and it remains a concession the United States.
West should never grant. Neither,

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Page 36 News NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

Special Covid-19
PANDEMIC coverage

Headache for Masvingo as
Covid-19 infections surge

Health officials attribute the latest surge in Masvingo province to the opening of borders, especially Beitbridge Border Post (below).

MORRIS BISHI and we attribute this surge to reluctance since
we are now witnessing large gatherings without
HEALTH authorities in Masvingo province the observation of government set guidelines. It
are worried about a new surge in Covid-19 in- is important for people to maintain social dis-
fections after the opening of schools early this tancing and follow the WHO (World Health
month. Organisation) and government Covid-19 laid
down standard procedures. Reluctance puts ev-
Last week, the country recorded 1 971 new eryone at risk of contracting and spreading the
cases of the respiratory infection and, of that virus, so we all need to remain vigilant because
number, 642 of the cases were in Masvingo the virus is still among us.”
followed by Manicaland (402) and Mashona-
land East (280), making Masvingo the province “The most important option is to be fully
with highest new cases at the moment. vaccinated. The ministry of Health is now on
the third jab for those who received the first
Health officials are attributing the latest and second jabs. It is important for people to
surge in the province to the opening of borders boost their bodies’ immune systems to be able
since Masvingo is a gateway to South Africa. A to fight the viruses,” Irimayi said.
large number of people from Masvingo stay in
South Africa because of the search for greener A senior health official in the province told
pastures. The NewsHawks that the latest surge in cases co-
incided with the opening of the Beitbridge Bor-
Masvingo provincial Covid-19 taskforce der Post through a cabinet directive last week,
spokesperson Rodgers Irimayi told The News- raising fears that many people are coming into
Hawks that the authorities are concerned by the the country with the authorities failing to test
recent increase in new infections which surged them.
last week and is continuing. He attributed the
rise to reluctance by the public to adhere to On Monday, the province recorded 63 new
government set guidelines aimed at curbing the cases with 37 cases recorded from schools, 88
spread of the coronavirus. cases were recorded on Tuesday and, of that fig-
ure, 27 were from schools. Other districts failed
“It is worrying to note that our province is to submit theur statistics.
recording an increase in Covid-19 infections

NewsHawks Editorial & Opinion Page 37

Issue 69, 25 February 2022 CARTOON

Bogus elections
must simply end

WEDNESDAY 23 February 2022 will go down as one of Ukraine War: It will end
the most critical moments in Zimbabwe’s shameful history on the negotiating table
of bogus elections.
MANY people around the world are watch- vast swathes of the world’s territory, mak- echoed fears of Europe’s new cold war mis-
Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (Zec) chairperson Jus- ing in horror the chilling act of aggression ing Russia the biggest country geographi- sile crisis. Nato countries have supplied
tice Priscilla Chigumba blew her top during a Multi-Party by Russian President Vladimir Putin who cally in the world – which it still is. This Kyiv with military aid, including lethal
Liaison Committee meeting. launched an invasion on Ukraine in the is despite the disintegration of the Soviet weapons like Javelin anti-tank missiles.
early hours of 24 February. Union in the 1990s after the collapse of the
What ticked her off was a forthright question from Jacob Berlin Wall. Nato expansion is designed to tighten its
Mafume, who was representing the opposition Citizens' Most people want peace, not war. Be grip on Eastern Europe and isolate Russia
Coalition for Change. they in Russia, Ukraine or elsewhere So Russians, Putin being instrumental, to contain and degrade it to a weaker pow-
around the world. view Ukraine as part of Russia. Part of the er. This has fuelled Russian security fears
Mafume, who has been repeatedly suspended from the empire, a denial of Ukraine sovereignty. and existential threats, which is why in
post of Harare mayor by the Zanu PF government, asked Yet we know that when diplomacy fails, The dead empire, according to Kenyan 2014 it swiftly moved to take over Crimea
a straightforward question about the scandalous anomalies war usually follows. Prussian general and ambassador to the United Nations Martin from Ukraine to ward off Western expan-
which have been unearthed in the shambolic voters’ roll. military theorist Carl Clausewitz once said sion towards the Black Sea where its fleet
"war is the continuation of politics by other Hawk Eye is positioned at Sevastopol.
Chigumba, who has not inspired much confidence in means".
running the electoral supervisory body — and this is a Dumisani There is also the issue of oil and gas.
monumental under-statement — would have none of it. The West and Ukraine, tried to negoti- Muleya Russia is a significant energy giant, on
ate with Russia, but diplomacy failed; war whom European countries depend on.
Her reaction is emblematic of the catastrophic manner in followed. Of course, Putin was denying he Kimani who criticised Putin’s harking back That has given Moscow the leverage to in-
which Zec conducts elections in this country. If Chigumba wanted to invade Ukraine as the West in- to the past in imperial nostalgia, is refusing fluence European politics in many ways,
has nothing to hide, why is she reacting in such kneejerk sisted he would. Putin now says he doesn’t to come to terms with the past. which the Americans oppose. So its in-
fashion? want to occupy Ukraine, but the West says fluence must be curtailed and pipeline
he does. Below the surface of contestations Russia, an aggressive authoritarian state projects stalled. Russia feels threatened by
There is really no need to get hot under the collar. and polemics by both sides, as well as artic- which feels the West has always had an West expansion, while the West wants to
We need to remind Chigumba — and those she reports ulations by neutrals, there is history, geo- agenda to stifle its development and rise, contain Kremlin.
to — that legitimate authority is derived from the consent politics, geoeconomics, and geostrategic says it was betrayed by Nato expansion be-
of the governed. imperatives. It’s not a black and white issue, yond the “red line” in Eastern Europe. The West see Russia as an aggressive au-
Chapter one of the national constitution enunciates nine or bad cop, good cop. Binaries. thoritarian state which has refused to em-
founding values and principles of the republic. One of In particular, Putin has been complain- brace democratic traditions, and still wants
them is good governance. It is about a complex labyrinth of his- ing about stationing in Ukraine missile de- to maintain and even spread its model.
Among the defining traits of good governance — which torical issues, geopolitics, the influence of fence systems similar to those in Romania That affects power relations and the balance
bind the state and all its institutions at every level — is the geographical factors on power relationships and Poland. Putin claimed they could serve of forces in a world where US power and
element of a democratic electoral system based on: univer- in international relations, and economic as cover to deploy offensive weapons such dominance is under threat from a rising
sal adult suffrage and equality of votes; free, fair and regular interests. International prestige and glory as Tomahawk missiles capable of reaching China as well as hostile Russia.
elections; and adequate representation of the electorate. also matter. Personal idiosyncrasies and Moscow in minutes.
Free, fair and credible elections are a constitutional stip- egos come to the equation. The global competition for resources, in-
ulation and this imperative cannot be flouted by anyone Russia, he said, could be forced to de- fluence and dominance is at the heart of the
under the sun. Volumes of opinions have been ex- ploy hypersonic missiles. AUpon invasion rivalry between the US, China and Russia.
The constitution does not stop there. It stipulates anoth- pressed around the world by historians, he also implied nuclear armageddon. In the process of this fight, each country
er central plank of good governance: “Respect for the rights scholars, military theorists and experts and wants to preserve and spread its ideas, mod-
of all political parties.” analysts about the Ukraine crisis. Ploughing The bellicose rhetoric on both sides el and system; impose its own world order.
And on this one Chigumba and her team have fallen flat through them shows that the war exploded
on their faces. due to an accumulation of historical issues, But in the end its negotiations and en-
On 20 February, the ruling Zanu PF and the opposition geopolitics and economics interests. lightened self-interest by all big powers that
CCC held their star rallies. The police imposed unrealistic should prevail, not military might. Afterall
conditions on CCC, such as a prohibition on the busing Ukraine was part of ancient Russia and it ends on the negotiating table.
in of party supporters, but there were no such impossible the Soviet Union. The empire straddled
conditions for Zanu PF. Why has Zec remained silent in
the face of such blatant bias?
Where was Chigumba during the CCC rally in High-
field when police unleashed draconian tactics on opposition
supporters in futile attempts to block them from reaching
the venue?
Meanwhile, Zanu PF proceeded with its Marondera rally
unmolested. What kind of contest is Zec running when
the opposition is routinely barred from freely mobilising
suppporters, yet the ruling party is not subjected to similar
treatment?
How on earth do you bar the opposition from transport-
ing its supporters?
The political chicanery even extended to cyber censor-
ship. Internet connectivity was clearly throttled, in a delib-
erate ploy to sabotage the livestreaming of the opposition
campaign lauch.
We did not see a statement of condemnation from
Chigumba.
She is sleeping on the job!
The anomalies in the voters’ roll which have been ex-
posed are not a laughing matter. Zec must stop gaslighting
citizens and begin honestly addressing these genuine con

Reaffirming the fundamental impor- The NewsHawks is published on different EDITORIAL STAFF: Marketing Officer: Voluntary Media
tance of freedom of expression and me- content platforms by the NewsHawks Digital Managing Editor: Dumisani Muleya Charmaine Phiri Council of Zimbabwe
dia freedom as the cornerstone of de- Media which is owned by Centre for Public Cell: +263 735666122
mocracy and as a means of upholding Interest Journalism Assistant Editor: Brezh Malaba [email protected] The NewsHawks newspaper subscribes to the
human rights and liberties in the con- No. 100 Nelson Mandela Avenue [email protected] Code of Conduct that promotes truthful, accurate,
stitution; our mission is to hold power Beverly Court, 6th floor News Editor: Owen Gagare
in its various forms and manifestations Harare, Zimbabwe Subscriptions & Distribution: fair and balanced news reporting. If we do not
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corruption to ensure good governance Beatrice Mtetwa, Raphael Khumalo, Reporters: at No.: 34, Colenbrander Rd, Milton Park, Harare.
and accountability in the public inter- Professor Wallace Chuma, Teldah Mawarire, Nyasha Chingono, Enoch Muchinjo, Moses Matenga,
est. Doug Coltart Jonathan Mbiriyamveka Telephone: 024-2778096 or 024-2778006,
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Website: www.vmcz.co.zw, Facebook: vmcz Zimbabwe

Page 38 New Perspectives NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

Banning Russia from SWIFT: Implications

TENSIONS over Ukraine have It is unlikely Russian compa- not lost for financial institutions Payment System (CIPS) which, help facilitate transactions. 
reached boiling point and Russia nies will continue to supply oil that need to transact with Rus- when it began in 2015, was Another alternative is for a
has proceeded to invade. and gas if they are not paid and sia. One option is Russia’s own heralded by some as a rival to
importing countries in Europe network, the System for Transfer the SWIFT network. That, so central bank digital currency
With the drums of war rum- may struggle to find alternative of Financial Messages (SPFS), far, has not  happened as there issued by Russia’s central bank.
bling on, one option being dis- energy sources. Countries such which is modelled on SWIFT has not  been the appetite for However, this kind of project is
cussed is cutting Russia from as Zimbabwe that have strong but has noth- unlikely to get the reach or trust
SWIFT, the international pay- trade and investment ties with ing of its by the users of new technology,
ments network, for invading Russia will also be affected.  reach as it Econometrics in time for it to be a viable alter-
Ukraine. What would the im- has only 400 native in the near-term. Many
pact be, and are there any alter- There is some precedent for banks signed HawksView industry observers have been
natives for corporates and banks this scenario: in 2012 Iran was on, compared predicting the demise of SWIFT
that need to make payments cut off when its banks and cen- to SWIFT’s for decades and, so far, solutions
into, and out of, the country? tral bank were removed from 11 000. There  like Ripple, Bitcoin and others
SWIFT in response to European are also  tech- Tinashe Kaduwo have yet to supersede the scale
Economic sanctions are just sanctions over the country’s nu- and reliability of SWIFT.
one tool that the US and Europe clear programme. The country nical lim-
can fall back on when dealing reportedly suffered massively, itations with SPFS as it is not cross-border transactions to be *About the writer: Tinashe
with Russia over the build-up losing  nearly half of its oil rev- accessible round the clock like denominated in renminbi over Kaduwo is a researcher and
of troops in Ukraine. And more enues and 30% of foreign trade. SWIFT. the US dollar. One possibility  economist. He writes in his
specifically, cutting the country Another option could be Chi- is that CIPS and Russia’s SPFS personal capacity. Contact
from SWIFT — the global in- So, are there any alternatives na’s Cross-Border Interbank could join forces and that may [email protected] whatsapp
terbank messaging network is to SWIFT? Not really, but all is +263773376128
seen as some kind of  "nuclear
option". It will not only affect
Russia but also other countries
that have strong trade ties with
Moscow.

Through the SWIFT system's
vast network of 11 000 banks
that all use the same messaging
standard, cross-border payments
are possible from any bank in
the world to another. If Russia
is disconnected from this sys-
tem, it would be difficult for any
Russian entity or individual to
receive payments from a bank in
another country.

It is not the first time such ac-
tion has been threatened. Back in
2014, the same idea was mooted
and the Russian finance minister
at the time, Alexei Kudrin, said
the impact would be serious. He
estimated that Russia would lose
approximately 5% of its GDP
in a year if it was cut off from
SWIFT.

Dr Maria Shagina,  a visiting
fellow at the Finnish Institute of
International Affairs, researched
the impact of a SWIFT-less
Russia for the Carnegie Mos-
cow Centre. In May last year
she wrote that the likelihood
of Russia being cut off SWIFT
is low because of the significant
impact it would have on other
countries, particularly Germany
and the United States, whose fi-
nancial institutions are the most
frequent users of SWIFT for
transactions with Russia.

And it could also precipitate
an energy crisis in Europe be-
cause of the reliance of imports
from Russia, which are paid for
in US dollars and via SWIFT.

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Business

MATTERSNewsHawks

MARKETS CURRENCIES LAST CHANGE %CHANGE COMMODITIES LAST CHANGE %CHANGE
EUR/USD 1.168 +0.001 +0.05 -1.402
USD/JPY 109.75 +0.03 +0.03 *OIL 62.61 -0.89 +0.123
GBP/USD 1.362 -0.002 -0.154 -0.39
USD/CAD 1.29 +0.007 +0.55 *GOLD 1,785.3 +2.2 +0.44
AUD/USD 0.713 -0.001 -0.098 +1.14
*SILVER 23.14 -0.09

*PLATINUM 975.5 +4.3

*COPPER 4.087 +0.046

BERNARD MPOFU Boost exports, Mangudya
tells manufacturing sector
RESERVE Bank of Zimbabwe governor John
Mangudya says the country’s manufacturing and fiscal policies supported prices for gold and by 7.7% from US$871.7 million in 2020 to Manufactured exports, however, remained
sector should go a notch up in boosting exports other precious minerals. US$939.1 million in 2021 led by tobacco ex- somewhat subdued, weighed down by lower
after official figures showed that the sector raked ports, largely on account of the good agricultur- jewellery and sugar exports amid low competi-
in US$176 million last year, up from US$240 Agricultural exports, according to central al season the country experienced. tiveness and, consequently, loss of key markets.
million in 2020, despite industry receiving the bank statistics, are estimated to have grown
lion’s share of foreign currency on the country’s
official auction system.

Use of antiquated equipment, competition
from cheap imports and high operating over-
heads have been cited as some of the critical
factors affecting the country’s industrial sector
from being competitive both regionally and in-
ternationally.

Mangudya told delegates attending the Con-
federation of Zimbabwe Industries launch of
the 2022 Economic Outlook Symposium that
the apex bank will reconfigure the allocation of
funds sourced from the auction system.

Massive closures and downscaling of large
firms and yesteryear multinational companies
has resulted in job cuts and growth of a thriving
informal sector which, according to indepen-
dent estimates, accounts for more 70% of the
economy.

“Your exports were US$177 million but you
used foreign currency from other economic sec-
tors such as mining, so how do you think you
will grow yourself from your own foreign cur-
rency? There is a confusion (misconception)
which says if you earned US$9.7 billion, there-
fore the economy has foreign currency. It’s there,
but it is not yours,” Mangudya said.

“You can’t use money which belongs to some-
one else. That money belongs to the likes of
Zimplats, the likes of Unki, the likes of govern-
ment in terms of accounts.”

More than 50% of foreign exchange sourced
from the auction system goes to the manufactur-
ing sector, Mangudya added.

Official figures show that merchandise ex-
ports are estimated to have increased by 28% to
US$6 315.2 million in 2021, from US$4 931.9
million in 2020, driven by increases in mineral
and agriculture exports, while manufactured ex-
ports remained subdued.

Mineral exports underpinned merchandise
export growth in 2021, growing by an estimat-
ed 38.4% from US$3 654.1 million realised in
2020 to approximately US$5 057.5 million in
2021. On the global front, safe-haven demand
in the face of Covid-19-induced loose monetary

Invictus spends US$4m on exploration, evaluation

DUMISANI NYONI (US$3.84 million) on seismic acquisition and Macmillan said early results from the CB21 The company also executed a non-binding
well planning, and A$251 000 (US$182 112) on survey processing were highly encouraging, par- farm-in option agreement with Cluff Energy
SOUTHERN Africa-focused oil and gas explo- consultancy. ticularly the strong amplitude anomalies and po- Africa, an endorsement of the project given the
ration outfit Invictus Energy spent approximately tential direct hydrocarbon indicators observed in group’s history and success in Zimbabwe’s natural
A$5.685 million (US$4.12 million) on explora- Commenting on the quarterly performance, the Muzarabani structure and along the basin’s resources sector.
tion and evaluation activities during the last quar- Invictus managing director Scott Macmillan said: margin fault.
ter of 2021, as it progresses towards its maiden “This has been an excellent quarter for the com- “A capital raising programme consisting of
drilling campaign in May this year. pany, advancing our exploration programme on “These results have generated confidence for a placement and a share purchase plan to fund
multiple fronts, as we progress towards our maid- selection of optimal drilling locations ahead of the the rig mobilisation fee and long lead items for a
The Australian Securities Exchange-listed firm en drilling campaign in May 2022.” upcoming campaign,” the company said. second was extremely well-supported by existing
is exploring for oil and gas in the Cabora Bassa shareholders. This enabled the company to dou-
Basin in Zimbabwe, which is one of the largest “We completed the Cabora Bassa 2021 seismic The Invictus chief said the company secured ble its targeted raise,” he said.
under-explored interior rift basins in Africa. survey (CB21 survey), obtaining 840km of new Exalo’s #202 drilling rig and ordered long lead
high-resolution 2D seismic data, that is providing items for a two-well programme, providing line Macmillan said the company was in a strong
According to its December 2021 quarterly re- greater insight into the subsurface and petroleum of sight to the anticipated May 2022 drilling pro- position and “is now firmly focused on the execu-
port, the company said it spent A$5.434 million potential of the Cabora Bassa Basin,” he said. gramme. tion of the planned May drilling campaign”.

Page 40 Companies & Markets NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

OK Zim anticipates business upswing

RONALD MUCHENJE

OK Zimbabwe Limited is anticipating an im- OK Zimbabwe Limited’s revenue grew 29% for the quarter.
provement in the product supply environment
on the back of a combination of increased for- helped improve foreign currency sales revenues continued to create inflationary headwinds that The group said alternative power sources re-
eign currency collections in-store, as well as and managed to stem illegal forex trades by ven- resulted in a 6% average month-on-month infla- mained expensive, inadequate and increased op-
renewed commitment by the authorities to dors in the various shopping centres where the tion rate while debilitating power outages wors- erating costs for businesses.
improve efficiencies on the central bank's forex company operates from,” the group said. ened during the trading period as supplies from
auction system. the national utility Zesa became unpredictable On the other hand, the company embarked
The persistent shortages of foreign currency and unbearably long. on a vaccination drive that resulted in 99% of
In its trading update for the third quarter and in the broader macro-economic environment the staff getting vaccinated against Covid-19.
nine months ended 31 December 2021, the
company said payment of civil servants’ emol-
uments in foreign currency, heightened agricul-
tural activity, and resumption of normal school
calendar were expected to result in an upturn in
consumer spending.

The company’s revenue grew 29% for the
quarter and 37% for the year to date in infla-
tion-adjusted terms and by 103% and 132%
for the quarter and year to date respectively in
historical terms.

During the period, sales volumes grew by 8%
for the quarter and by 27% for the nine months
while profit margins for the third quarter were
higher than reported for the half-year ended 30
September 2021 owing to improved operational
effectiveness.

“The group anticipates an improvemenit in
the product supply environment on the back
of a combination of increased foreign currency
collections in-store as well as renewed commit-
ment by authorities to improve efficiencies on
the RBZ (Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe) auction
system. Payment of civil servants’ emoluments
in foreign currency, heightened agricultural ac-
tivity, and resumption of normal school calendar
are expected to result in an upturn in consumer
spending,” the company said.

While Covid-19 remains a threat, the group
said it will continue to implement best practice
protocols to ensure the safety of its employees,
customers, supplier partners and all other stake-
holders.

“The macro-economic environment posed
various challenges in the quarter under review.
In spite of the myriad of challenges, the group’s
stores were well-stocked to deliver good quality
service to our customers during the peak festive
season. The company worked with the Reserve
Bank of Zimbabwe to co-create solutions around
in-store foreign currency trading. The flexibility
offered through various promotional discounts

THE local unit of Anglo American Platinum Unki Mine reports marginal growth
Limited reported a marginal growth in output
in 2021 following the easing of Covid-19 regula- Unki Mine production increased by 4%.
tions and the commissioning of a new project, the
company has announced. sales volumes, resulting in higher margins and re- it sees improved output in 2022 driven by high respectively,” the company said.
turns. The US dollar PGM basket price increased demand in the automotive industry which uses “This is backed up by tentative signs towards
Total Platinum Group Metals (PGM) produc- by 36%, with the rand basket price increasing by the white metal to manufacture catalytic convert-
tion at Shurugwi-based Unki Mine increased by 22% to R40 511 per PGM ounce (2020: R33 ers — critical components in reducing carbon the end of 2021 that the semi-conductor shortage
4% to 204 600 PGM ounces (2020: 196 100 320 per PGM ounce) on the back of a stronger emmissions. was easing, both in terms of a higher and more
ounces). rand. The increased profitability and strong free consistent flow of chips becoming available and
cashflow generated enabled significant sharehold- “Industry consensus is that 2022 will be a vehicle manufacturers becoming more confi-
Tonnes milled increased by 7% year-on-year er returns in 2021. much stronger year, with leading automotive dent as to how to live with constrained supply.
following the recovery of operations from the im- industry analysts LMC Automotive and IHS Covid-19 remains a downside risk to production
pact of Covid-19 in 2020 and the successful com- Going forward, Anglo American Platinum says forecasting year-on-year gains of 12% and 9%, plans.” — STAFF WRITER.
missioning of the concentrator de-bottlenecking
project, which has increased concentrator ca-
pacity from around 000 tonnes per month to
approximately 210 000 tonnes per month in the
fourth quarter of 2021 and should lead to an an-
nual PGM production of around 250 000 PGM
ounces, the company said in its annual report.

“This was partially offset by a 2% reduction in
4E built-up head grade from 3.58g/t to 3.52g/t.
Cash operating costs rose by 15%, or R348 mil-
lion (nearly US$184 million) to R2.7 billion
as a result of the increased mining activity and
above-CPI inflationary input cost increases. Unit
costs increased by 10% to R13,392 per PGM
ounce (2020: R12,198 per PGM ounce). Unki’s
Earnings Before Interest Tax Depreciation and
Armortisation (EBITDA) increased by 171% to
R6.2 billion (2020: R2.3 billion), with a mining
EBITDA margin of 62% (2020: 46%). Return
on capital employed (ROCE) increased to 114%
(2020: 38%).”

Anglo American Platinum, according to the
report, delivered a record financial performance
in 2021, driven by higher PGM prices and higher

NewsHawks Companies & Markets Page 41

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

RONALD MUCHENJE First Capital embraces innovation

FIRST Capital Bank Limited says it is look- today, we are extending a notice period to our In the face of Covid-19, Zimbabwean banks an bank employees will continue to work from
ing for opportunities to tap into new markets customers and clients to give them adequate have also had to adopt new ways of working, up- home indefinitely, as the effects of vaccination
through value-adding partnerships with its time to migrate to paperless banking by register- grading both back-office and client-facing digi- programmes are yet to be seen. Also, as some of
collaboration with Hellopaisa Money Transfer ing on our diverse digital platforms. Our role is tal capabilities, and driving paperless approaches the largest users of corporate real estate, banks
Agency to unlock value for customers. to ensure that all our customers transition with and automation. will be revisiting office configuration and work
ease during this exciting journey,” she said locations.
Last week, the bank announced that it had Expectations are that a portion of Zimbabwe-
embarked on two major developments that will
help reshape service delivery for its key seg-
ments, including going totally paperless in the
next two months.

Given the rise of mobile money in Zimba-
bwe and the uptick in electronic money usage
in light of hard currency challenges, many banks
have transformed to become more digital by de-
fault and increasing their digitalisation drive to
reduce costs and to improve the customer expe-
rience.

Under the partnership with Hellopaisa, First
Capital will offer “cash payout” services to walk-
in customers across its branch network with a
valid Hellopaisa token code after all the neces-
sary checks have been conducted, adding to the
bank’s money transfer services.

“We are excited about this partnership and
the value it will unlock for our customers. In
today’s operating climate, our mandate is to
offer diverse banking solutions that align with
consumer needs by providing convenience and
relevance. Our inspiration is drawn from the op-
portunity to tap into new markets through val-
ue-adding partnerships such as these,” First Cap-
ital Bank managing directorv Ciaran McSharry
said at the launch of the Hellopaisa partnership.

Hellopaisa Money Transfer Agency has set the
pace of the remittance market with major opera-
tions in South Africa, United Arab Emirates and
United Kingdom.

Meanwhile, the bank will now be “going pa-
perless” for all personal transactions in-branch,
a process which will run till 30 April 2022, af-
ter which customers will be expected to transact
digitally.

Speaking on the initiative of “going paper-
less”, the consumer banking director, Angela
Kamhiriri, said the initiative will also align the
bank with global trends and standards of digital
banking.

“Through the transition we will continue to
invest in system development where our collec-
tive efforts will ease migration for our custom-
ers. Whilst we have made this announcement

Improved volumes for tyre trade despite power cuts

BERNARD MPOFU

ZIMBABWE Stock Exchange-listed industrial ing the difficult circumstances. same period last year as the company struggled to tural and earth moving tyres and the procurement
concern National Tyre Services says its volumes Retreading volumes grew by 2% year-to-date land stocks on time for the festive season selling of truck tyres for the Zimbabwean transport in-
improved during the third quarter ending 31 De- due to challenges in obtaining adequate foreign dustry. The company’s products include Dunlop,
cember despite power outages and foreign curren- compared to the same period last year, as the com- currency.”
cy volatilities which affected operations. pany implemented marketing initiatives to sup- Firestone, Bridgestone, Yokohama, Pirelli,
port retreading customers during the quarter un- National Tyre Services Limited is engaged in Bandag, Regal and Comforser.
Stewart Mandimika, the company secretary, der despite a challenging operating environment, reprocessing and the retailing of tyres. The com-
said NTS operations were constrained by the Mandimika added. pany sells new tyres and tubes (imported and lo- The relugging factories are in Harare and
harsh economic climate given the negative effects cally manufactured). Chiredzi and the Bandag factories, for the pro-
of the Covid-19 pandemic, surge in inflation and “New tyre volumes declined by 29% for the curement of truck tyres, are in Harare and Bul-
inadequate foreign currency to import tyres. period October to December 2021 compared to Its other main activity is relugging of agricul- awayo.

During the period under review, Zimbabwe ex-
perienced a fourth wave of Covid-19 cases which
prompted the authorities to introduce strict mea-
sures aimed at slowing down the spread of the re-
spiratory disease,

“Power supply outages impacted production
in our retreading factories, negatively affecting
standard customer turnaround time. Despite the
challenges, retreading volumes and new tyre vol-
umes recorded positive growth year-to-date 31
December 2021 compared to the same period in
the prior year”, Mandimika said.

“The Covid-19 pandemic effects are expected
to subside as infections continue to come down
due to the rollout of vaccines. Key areas to watch,
to ensure the continued viability of the business,
will be cost control, an uninterrupted supply
chain and avoidance of loss of capital against in-
flationary pressures. It is hoped that the foreign
currency auction platform will grow further to
cater for the industry’s needs.”

New tyre volumes year-to-date 31 December
2021 increased by 23% compared to same period
last year, which was significant progress consider-

Page 42 ComSptaoncikesT&akMinagrkets NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

Price Sheet A MEMBER OF FINSEC & THE ZIMBABWE STOCK EXCHANGE

Friday, 25 February 2022

Company Sector Bloomberg Previous Last VWAP (cents) Total Total Price Price YTD Market
Ticker Price Traded Traded Change Change (%) Cap
AFDIS Consumer Goods (cents) Traded Volume Value ($) (cents) ($m)
African Sun Consumer Services AFDIS: ZH (%)
ART ASUN: ZH 17000.00 Price 300
Ariston Industrials ARTD: ZH 776.54 154,400
Axia Consumer Services ARISTON: ZH 1100.00 17055.00 17055.00 51,165 55.00 0.32 36.44 20,379.79
BAT AXIA: ZH 325.57 780.00 780.01 300 1,204,343 3.47 0.45 21.45 11,106.81
CAFCA Consumer Goods 6003.30 1200.00 1133.33 28,300 33.33 3.03 8.45
Cassava Consumer Goods BAT: ZH 350.00 348.09 38,800 3,400 22.52 6.92 -6.48 4,952.40
CBZ CAFCA: ZH 296485.00 5900.00 6146.86 98,510 143.56 2.39 104.55 5,664.80
CFI Industrials 17000.00 4,900 2,384,980 -59295.00 -20.00 -25.90 33,939.91
Dairibord Technology CSZL: ZH 7503.67 237190.00 237190.00 - 11,622,310 48,940.64
Delta CBZ: ZH 8890.32 - 17000.00 - - - 1,484.97
Econet Banking CFI:ZH 10200.00 7500.05 112,000 - -3.62 -0.05 84.49 194,294.59
Edgars Industrials DZL: ZH 3414.71 7500.00 9000.00 1,600 8,400,060 109.68 1.23 19.73 47,039.53
FBC Consumer Goods DLTA: ZH 23003.29 9000.00 - 9.01 10,816.17
Fidelity Consumer Goods ECO: ZH 13978.73 2,500 144,000 - - -3.37 12,107.59
First Capital Telecommunications - 10200.00 - -32.71 -0.96 41.50 299,945.78
FML Consumer Services EDGR: ZH 450.12 104,700 -4.41 -0.02 64.51 362,245.80
FMP FBC: ZH 3000.53 3450.00 3382.00 82,200 84,550 4.48 0.03 6.95 2,811.26
GBH Banking FIDL: ZH 1100.00 6,000 24,079,830 15.13 3.36 -11.35 20,165.55
Getbucks Financial Services FCA: ZH 394.99 23000.00 22998.88 19,000 11,494,200 0.52 0.02 -30.32 1,198.16
Hippo 2105.26 42,700 14.29 8,526.09
Innscor Banking FMHL: ZH 615.07 14000.00 13983.21 6,900 27,915 - - 10.00 15,183.15
Lafarge Financial Services FMP: ZH 181.92 2,000 570,200 -0.23 -0.06 -21.14 7,615.53
Mash GBH: ZH 500.00 465.25 465.25 - 469,700 94.74 4.50 -20.77
Masimba Real Estate 34000.00 15,000 -16.67 975.73
Medtech Industrials GBFS: ZH 26750.25 3000.00 3001.05 100 27,239 - - 21.43 5,815.59
Medtech Class B HIPO: ZH 8504.19 500 44,000 -0.08 -0.04 64.89 65,626.99
Meikles Financial Services 326.16 1100.00 1100.00 18.81 152,601.06
Nampak Consumer Goods INN: ZH 4500.00 143,900 - - - -0.01 7,604.00
NatFoods LACZ: ZH 2200.00 394.75 394.76 100 27,276 - - -16.59 6,031.58
NTS Industrials MASH: ZH 3200.00 2200.00 2200.00 27.67 0.10 -37.14 11,085.50
NMBZ Industrials MSHL: ZH 14100.07 615.07 6,200 500 1000.81 11.77 28.00
OK Zim Real Estate MMDZ: ZH 1250.00 - 181.84 1,700 170,000 -1.72 -0.53 11.14 264.00
Proplastics Industrials MMDZB: ZH 179950.50 182.25 500.00 38,533,420 87.35 1.94 21.00 42.94
RTG Financial Services MEIK: ZH 720.00 500.00 34000.00 - - - 30.91
RioZim Financial Services NPKZ: ZH 1249.99 34000.00 26777.92 200 9,505 - - 26.98 35,127.94
SeedCo Industrials NTFD: ZH 3253.49 26805.00 9505.00 10,100 20,116 -196.06 -1.39 47.28 10,201.25
Simbisa Industrials 2895.00 9505.00 324.44 800 77,985 100.00 8.00 18.40 123,086.34
Star Africa Consumer Goods NTS: ZH 745.00 310.00 4587.35 - - 0.01
Tanganda Industrials NMB: ZH 5000.00 4605.00 2200.00 - - 80.00 11.11 -5.77 2,030.98
Truworths OKZ: ZH 18999.95 3200.00 1,000 6,400 -63.89 -5.11 27.66 4,793.88
TSL Banking PROL: ZH 16078.68 - 13904.01 35,100 1,404,305 -3.89 -0.12 79.99 41,786.10
Turnall Consumer Services RTG: ZH 169.19 3200.00 1350.00 12,400 10,800 5.00 0.17 88.96 7,306.13
Unifreight RIOZ: ZH 7690.57 13000.00 179950.50 -10.00 -1.34 46.28 18,341.89
Willdale Industrials SEED: ZH 200.00 1350.00 800.00 500 - 106.46 2.13 11.85 6,231.39
ZB Consumer Services SIM: ZH 8000.00 1186.10 900 8,000 0.05 0.00 46,968.50
Zeco SACL: ZH 510.82 - 3249.60 2,400 416,320 927.83 5.77 - 95,608.01
Zimpapers Basic Materials TANG: ZH 2602.50 800.00 2900.00 23,200 402,950 0.29 0.17 36.81 7,991.12
Zimplow Consumer Goods TRUW: ZH 300.00 1150.00 17,600 14,500 -190.05 -2.47 29.23 19,581.20
ZHL Consumer Goods TSL: ZH 6500.00 3300.00 35,100 6,615 - - 0.11
TOTAL Consumer Goods TURN: ZH 2900.00 542,400 122,555 1600.00 20.00 -8.17 768.14
Consumer Goods UNIF: ZH 2.00 1,400 4,408,000 19.18 3.75 -15.58 34,281.83
Consumer Services WILD: ZH 282.68 735.00 735.00 200 2,993,145 397.50 15.27 316.67
Consumer Goods ZBFH: ZH 1951.14 100 59,488 -15.80 -5.27 1.46 2,613.11
ZECO: ZH 380.92 5000.00 5106.46 200 40,682,800 - - -15.25 3,194.23
Industrials ZIMP: ZH 45,700 2,800 - - 1.29 5,053.08
Industrials ZIMPLOW: ZH 19000.00 19000.00 4,100 19,200 12.57 4.45 11,387.39
Industrials ZHL: ZH 48.86 2.50
17020.00 17006.51 - 530 - - 9.27
Banking 43,900 6,000 1,700.64
Industrials 169.25 169.48 129,879 6,891.61
Consumer Services 8,300 266,500 6,925.96
Industrials 7500.00 7500.52 - 1,850,345.90
Financial Services -
200.00 200.00 1,559,700 129,615
9600.00 9600.00 166,000
530.00 530.00
3000.00 3000.00 -
280.00 284.20 150,801,605
6500.00 6500.00

- 2.00
300.00 295.25
2000.00 2000.00
380.92
-

ETFs MCMS.zw 1450.09 1440.00 1444.18 2,911 42,040 -5.91 -0.41 44.42 1,818.63
Morgan&Co Multi-Sector ETF OMTT.zw 953.77 1000.00 995.42 42,815 426,187 41.65 4.37 126.19 796.34
Old Mutual ZSE Top 10 ETF
12,451.76
FINSEC Financial Services OMZIL 15000.00 15000.00 15000.00 - -- - 50.00
Old Mutual Zimbabwe US$m
57.27
VFEX (US cents) Mining BIND:VX 4.50 - 4.50 - - - - -18.18 8.06
BNC Mining CMCL:VX 1300.00 - 1300.00 - - - --
Caledonia Consumer Goods 21.00 7,741 1,625.61 - -- 113.73
Padenga Consumer Goods PHL:VX 21.00 - 21.00 - - - - -0.18 106.81
SeedCo International SCIL:VX 28.00 28.00
YTD %
Index Close Change (%) Open YTD % Top 5 Risers Price Change % +36.81
ZSE All Share 14,898.26 +0.14 14,877.30 +37.66 TSL 9600.00c +1600.00c +20.00 +0.11
Top 10 9,937.39 -0.53 +45.89 Unifreight 3000.00c +15.27 +18.81
Top 15 10,937.17 -0.03 9,990.44 +45.26 Lafarge 9505.00c +397.50c +11.77 +26.98
Small Cap +3.44 10,940.18 +1.19 NTS +1000.81c +11.11 +21.00
Medium Cap 407,544.34 +2.44 393,980.59 +17.90 Nampak 800.00c +8.00
24,060.88 23,488.69 1350.00c +80.00c YTD %
+100.00c -25.90
-8.17
Top 5 Fallers Price Change % +47.28
BAT 237190.00c -59295.00c -20.00 +11.85
Willdale -5.27 +11.14
NMBZ 284.20c -15.80c -5.11
Tanganda 1186.10c -63.89c -2.47
Meikles 7500.52c -190.05c -1.39
13904.01c -196.06c

SALES & TRADING: Davide Muchengi: [email protected] | Lungani Nyamazana: [email protected] | Tatenda Jasi: [email protected]
RESEARCH: Batanai Matsika: [email protected] | Precious Chagwedera: [email protected] | Tafara Mtutu: [email protected]
Tel: (+263) 08677008101-2 | Email: [email protected] | Address: 14165 Sauer Road, Gunhill, Harare

MORGAN & COMPANY has issued this document for distribution to its clients. It may not be reproduced or further distributed in whole or in part for any purpose. This document is not and should not be construed as an
offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe to any investment. MORGAN & COMPANY has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not

independently verified; MORGAN & COMPANY makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to the accuracy or completeness of its content.

Property
NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022 PROPERTY INTERIORS ARCHITECTURE GARDENING Page 43

The home of prime property: [email protected]

Businesses
are moving out of

Harare CBD for
various reasons.
— Picture: Aaron

Ufumeli

Harare commercial prop sector changing

ALEX MHANDU space along major roads is gaining popularity point. old stock and new builds mostly concentrated
for both office and retail space. “Major roads in Harare are fast becoming on warehousing and wholesaling, as demand
HARARE’S commercial property segment has begins to rise on the back of improvements
reached a turning point, changing the face of Companies are setting up head offices along commercial hubs. Recent developments and in agricultural production as well as increased
the city, as major roads are fast becoming hubs major roads such as Emmerson Mnangagwa improvements on the market are painting mining activity.
of commercial activity, market experts have Road (formerly Enterprise Road), Glenara a picture of emerging hope for commercial
noted. Avenue, Samora Machel Avenue, Borrowdale properties in Harare,” real estate experts Raw- Within the short to medium term, the out-
Road with examples inclusive of TM Asset son Properties said. look will rely much on the recovery of the
This comes amid a shift in the sector, with Management, NMB Bank, in addition to economy as the commercial property market
businesses moving out of the central business BYD EV Centre along Airport Road in Hat- The commercial property sector is made up tends to track the overall economy quite close-
district (CBD) for various reasons, including field suburb. of three main classes: office, retail and indus- ly.
the need to escape the hectic traffic conges- trial.
tion, old and outdated infrastructure that is On retail space, the same trend is being not- Said Rawson Properties: “If the recovery
no longer in line with modern trends, distur- ed in the capital city. OK Zimbabwe recently “Each of these is undergoing serious trans- trajectory continues, we expect commercial
bances caused by illegal transport operators opened a branch along Kirkman Drive, while formation which is changing the face of the property growth to continue as well and we
also known as mushika-shika, illegal vending construction of a Pick n Pay supermarket is city,” Rawson Properties said. expect to see more positive changes in our cit-
on pavements and what has been termed the underway at the corner of Kirkman Drive and ies and in our neighbourhoods.”
general decay of the CBD. Harare Drive. This is in addition to the up- In light of this, CBD and suburban retail
coming Highland Park on Emmerson Mnan- have also gone through several changes in re- The economy is projected to grow by 5.5%
This has also resulted in high voids in com- gagwa Road. cent years with remodeling and repurposing in 2022 driven by agriculture, mining, manu-
mercial CBD space, as businesses in the past within the CBD space, new builds and up- facturing, and tourism. The increased govern-
decade opted for office parks and suburban of- “After years of near-neglect for so many grades within the suburban space. The emerg- ment spending towards infrastructure devel-
fice space. However, a new trend has emerged properties by property owners due to econom- ing small to medium enterprises (SMEs) are opment and industrial revitalisation witnessed
in Harare, whereby demand for commercial ic challenges, it’s safe to say the commercial dominating the retail spaces in the CBD. in 2021 is expected to start yielding fruit in
property sector has now reached a turning 2022, cascading to the real estate sector.
On the industrial segment, Rawson noted
signs of improvement with refurbishment of

Page 44 News Analysis NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

NYASHA CHINGONO Citizens’ Coalition for Change supporters attend the party’s first rally at Zimbabwe Grounds in Highfield, Harare, last week.

OPPOSITION leader Nelson Chamisa’s gam- Chamisa’s gamble pays off
ble to form a new party following squabbles over
the MDC-Alliance name seems to be paying off, CCC president Nelson Chamisa addresses crowd at Zimbabwe Grounds in Highfield, Harare, last week. Having succeeded in hounding out Chamisa
amid renewed interest in the democratic struggle out of Morgan Tsvangirai House in 2020 and hi-
and fresh international goodwill. blocking various modes of transport from enter- joyed immense goodwill after the military coup jacking the MDC-Alliance name, Mwonzora is
ing central Harare stoked fears of yet another ploy in 2017 but soon fizzled out in the aftermath of left with only a shell, observers argue.
Chamisa pulled a bumper crowd last Sunday to thwart the gathering. bloody post-2018 election.
at the Zimbabwe Grounds in Harare during his Mwonzora lacks grassroots support which his
first rally after forming the Citizens’ Coalition for The throttling of internet connectivity, affect- Mnangagwa squandered the international arch-rival enjoys.
Change (CCC), rattling the political landscape ing livestreaming services, was also largely seen as goodwill he enjoyed after the coup. The “new dis-
where some observers had predicted the demise a plot to frustrate the new party. pensation” façade has come off as shown by hu- After Sunday, there is no doubt that CCC is
of meaningful opposition politics in the country. man rights violations and the shrinking of dem- the main opposition in Zimbabwe.
While Chamisa was barred from busing sup- ocratic space.
But Sunday did not only affirm the obvious porters to the venue, Zanu PF freely bused its “OK, it seems the young man has done it.
fact that CCC is the main opposition in the supporters to Marondera. Chamisa’s Sunday rally also put his nemesis, Forget anyone else. He is the opposition now,”
country, but also revived debate that Zimbabwe is MDC-T faction leader Douglas Mwonzora, in Professor Stephen Chan, a prominent political
headed for another electoral showdown in 2023. But in the face of authoritarian repression from his place after his two rallies at Zororo Grounds in analyst, wrote on Twitter.
the state, international goodwill has returned to Harare and in Bulawayo attracted paltry crowds.
Adorned in yellow, having dumped the tradi- the opposition party. Ironically, Mnangagwa en- While it was never in doubt that Chamisa was
tional red and now chanting a different slogan, the main opposition leader in Zimbabwe, there is
the palpable euphoria that gripped the Zimbabwe no denying that his gamble has paid off.
Grounds was reminiscent of the MDC’s forma-
tion in 1999. Before making the decision to form a new
party, away from the controversy, Chamisa was
Sunday’s rally rolled back the years to the MDC caught between a rock and a hard place.
led by the late Morgan Tsvangirai, which enjoyed
public goodwill since its formation in 1999 until Chamisa faced three difficult options: To con-
the party was rocked by intra-party squabbles. test as MDC-Alliance and clash in the process
with Mwonzora’s MDC-T which is fielding can-
It was a spontaneous affair, punctuated with didates under the same name, amid their contin-
music, dance and moments of laughter as sup- ued cut-throat wrangling; change name and re-
porters congregated in the iconic Zimbabwe brand, or boycott the elections.
Grounds.
Boycotting the elections was not an option, as
With some hanging precariously onto tree he risked giving away traditional opposition con-
branches, while thousands bravely defied police stituencies to Zanu PF, which would eventually
roadblocks to attend the party’s first rally, it was get a whopping majority in Parliament.
apparent that excitement had returned to oppo-
sition politics. Rebranding would come at a cost as he would
lose some supporters along the way, notwith-
Despite facing major headwinds in the run standing that rebranding is an expensive exercise
up to the rally, which include the arrest of over on its own.
90 activists in Harare and Masvingo, while the
party’s vice-president Tendai Biti was also briefly Teething problems are expected, as supporters
detained, CCC pulled off a successful campaign are still coming to grips with the new slogans and
launch. Activating the instruments of coercion party ethos.
before the campaign launch, the state went all out
to thwart the rally. It was an urgent exercise that needed to be
done before the 2023 elections.
Police statements barring opposition support-
ers from holding car rallies and strict rally rules In hindsight, rebranding has been a blessing
were slammed by observers as repressive. in disguise, as it has infused new energy into the
opposition party ahead of next month’s crunch
Ahead of the rally, CCC members were also by-elections.
ordered not to chant party slogans or march in
procession. CCC has come at the right time, essentially to
keep Zanu PF on its toes as the nation faces a po-
“Your members shall not be involved in tentially heated plebiscite.
toyi-toying, convoying of vehicles of people
chanting slogans and singing and disseminating Chamisa’s gamble will fully pay off if he imme-
hateful and defaming information. Co-operation diately comes up with a party constitution, set a
with all government agencies is highly appre- date for an elective congress where a substantive
ciated. You are directed to observe and stick to leadership will be chosen and make inroads into
Covid-19 regulations,” the police instructed. Zanu PF territory.

European Union (EU) ambassador Timo Ol- It was a no-brainer that he would pull a bumper
konen responded, as saying: “Democracy should crowd, but the rural areas where he is headed to at
be built on a level playing field.” the weekend are a different terrain.

It is apparent Chamisa’s rally sent President Zanu PF has gone for broke and will stop at
Emmerson Mnangagwa’s regime into panic as nothing until they win all urban seats, so CCC
witnessed by several moves to scuttle the gather- should also meet the ruling party pound for
ing. pound.

On the morning of the rally, reports of police The gamble is paying off and Chamisa should
not squander the goodwill.

NewsHawks Reframing Issues Page 45

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

Yellow Sunday — Some observations on
Citizens’ Coalition for Change star rally

Alex T. Citizens' Coalition for Change supporters at Zimbabwe Grounds on Sunday. events foreshadow a violent election in
Magaisa 2023, especially as the regime realises
phatic political statement at Zimbabwe other organisation with less resolute apparent in how the authorities handled after that defining Sunday that the peo-
SOON after the Supreme Court of Grounds, that they, not Mwonzora and souls would not have contained the the CCC’s star rally. When the CCC ple are firmly behind Chamisa and the
Zimbabwe delivered a judgment that his MDC-T are the legitimate leaders of pressure. Chamisa would have been left notified the police of its intention to CCC. Further onslaught can be antici-
was to have long-lasting effects on the the opposition in the country. It would alone without a party, something that hold the rally, the police responded with pated as the regime seeks to intimidate
geography of opposition politics in the be preposterous to entertain any type of would have pleased Mnangagwa no a flurry of conditions, many of them and cow people into submission. The
country, we observed that while the dialogue that excludes them. end. But the more they were attacked, utterly unreasonable. None of these regional and international community
court of law had made its verdict, ulti- the more galvanised they became. A few conditions were given to Zanu PF or must watch closely what happens be-
mately the critical questions would be The great show is more remarkable of the lily-livered variety jumped ship, the MDC-T led by Mwonzora. Just as tween now and 2023 because, at this
resolved by the court of public opinion. because it was achieved against several but the majority stayed put. Something the police were banning the CCC from rate, the country is headed for yet an-
odds. For the past couple of years, the remarkable happened: citizens who for transporting people to his rally, scores of other violent and illegitimate election.  
It is fair to say that on Sunday the regime has embarked on a systematic so long had outsourced the funding of buses were commandeered to transport
court of public opinion delivered its process of decimating Chamisa and his their party to donors, realised that they Zanu PF supporters to a rally addressed There will be time to consider sub-
preliminary verdict and, as predicted, it party. The aim was to bury them as a had to roll up the sleeves. They started by Vice-President Constantino Chi- stantive issues, but Sunday was all about
is a stark contrast to the verdict of the political force, installing a pliant oppo- to fundraise for their party in ways that wenga in Marondera. But this is what the numbers and optics. The most im-
court of law. It is also a reminder that, sition first led by Khupe and later by have not been done before. happens in authoritarian Zimbabwe: portant political statement was not in
ultimately, political questions are re- Mwonzora. After the dubious Supreme one law for the opposition and another words but numbers. It was a battle of
solved politically, not by judges. Court judgment that revived a political And although there was some reluc- for the regime and its surrogates. political supremacy between the oppo-
matter that it acknowledged had long tance to give up the old name, it soon sition parties that have been haggling
Back in March 2020, Thokozani Kh- become moot, the regime allowed Kh- became apparent that it had to be done. Still, true to the adage, where there is for the past two years. After Sunday the
upe, Douglas Mwonzora, and Morgen upe and Mwonzora to destroy Chami- The change of the party’s name, colours, a will, there is a way and citizens found scoreline is firmly in favour of Chamisa
Komichi were on cloud nine, having sa and his party by recalling MPs and and symbols reinvigorated the organisa- a way to show their support to the CCC with Mwonzora trailing by a long mar-
scored one over Nelson Chamisa and councillors who were elected in 2018. It tion, marking a historic moment in the at the Zimbabwe Grounds. On the gin. If it were a boxing match, Mwon-
his allies in the then MDC-Alliance also assisted Khupe and Mwonzora in life of the opposition party. That act on morning of the star rally, the regime zora had the early rounds but the tide
courtesy of the Supreme Court verdict. forcibly grabbing the party headquar- its own has been a mark of renewal. The mounted roadblocks on arterial roads has turned and he is now taking punch-
But Mwonzora and Khupe did not ters. old red of the MDC has given way to leading to Harare. In the days leading es without responding, the defence is
read the political room accurately. Their yellow, bringing a remarkable freshness up to the rally, the regime used violence non-existent and his legs are gone. It is
conduct afterward as they carelessly The regime went further to suffo- and brightness to the party. The electric against opposition activists mobilising painful to watch.  
fired elected representatives without cate Chamisa and his party financially spirit among the people, as witnessed at people. Some were arrested on spurious
any concern for public sentiment only by diverting public funds that they had the star rally at the Zimbabwe Grounds charges and remain in jail. The purpose Yet for all the euphoria of today, it is
confirmed that they had become intoxi- legitimately earned in 2018 and giving is reminiscent of the spirit of 1999, was simple: to stop citizens from travel- important to end on a cautionary note.
cated with cheap power. The more they them to Khupe and Mwonzora. And to when the MDC was formed. But the ling to the CCC’s star rally. The regime Chamisa and the CCC have the ball
took from Chamisa and his allies, the twist the knife further, Mwonzora and MDC has run its race. It was interred did not want any large crowds at the and while the repressive regime and its
more they lost favour and respect in the Khupe grabbed the name that Chamisa last week at the aptly named Zororo Zimbabwe Grounds. They wanted a apparatus of coercion and cheating are a
eyes of the opposition public. They were and his party were using all along. Grounds, the place of rest. Just over paltry crowd to claim that the rally was a threat, they must be careful to avoid un-
digging their own political graves. That two decades after the formation of the flop. It even tried jamming the internet forced errors. The immediate challenge
is why we argued that they would face Stripped of all these things, Chamisa MDC, the CCC represents fresh hope to affect the live streaming of the event. for Chamisa and the CCC is change
the wrath of the court of public opinion and his party were facing an existential and determination to overcome tyran- None of this worked because people management. They need to invest in
as events of the last week have demon- threat: their very existence was under ny. There is a whole new generation that were determined. change management so that they can
strated. imminent threat. Faced with these dire has emerged in that period, and it need- navigate the complex waters of change.
challenges — no elected representatives, ed a new vehicle. But the violence and unlawful arrests The euphoria must not be a cover for in-
Last week, Mwonzora held a pitiful homeless, penniless, and almost name- are yet more red flags showing that the ternal challenges that require attention.
star rally at Zororo Ground in High- less — it looked like the political gods The star rally was also a reminder political environment in Zimbabwe is
field, a high-density residential suburb had turned their backs on Chamisa and that the road remains strewn with im- hazardous to free and fair elections. We As the leaders saw on Sunday, the
that can lay a legitimate claim as the his allies. That is why the huge turnout pediments for the opposition. The Zim- have always argued that the by-elections citizens delivered an important political
traditional home of modern politics on Sunday was quite a remarkable feat. babwean regime specialises in selective are an important process that fore- statement not only to the regime but to
in Zimbabwe. It was a paltry crowd application of the law and it was just as grounds the 2023 elections. Current them as well. They have entrusted them
that reflected his poor standing in the The first thing was to remain calm with a major responsibility. They trust
public’s estimation. Mwonzora attract- and united under serious pressure. Any the leaders to do the right thing and the
ed laughter when he claimed that the leaders must not let them down. Those
crowd at his rally was 5 000-strong. Ob- of us in the intellectual trenches will not
servers said he was delusional. It was just pamper the leadership. We will exercise
a few hundred people. But if there was vigilance and highlight errors that need
any doubt, it was put to bed last Sunday correction.  
when, by contrast, tens of thousands
converged on the Zimbabwe Grounds, Finally, the challenge for the authen-
also in Highfield, for the Citizens' Co- tic Zimbabwean opposition over the
alition for Change (CCC)’s star rally years has never been its inability to at-
addressed by Chamisa. If Mwonzora’s tract large numbers of people to rallies.
estimation of 5 000 people at his rally It has always drawn huge numbers. It
was accurate, then by the same measure- is what we might call the “Conversion
ment, it might be said Chamisa’s rally Challenge”. This refers to the ability to
had a million people! convert rally attendees into voters; rally
numbers into voting numbers. If every
The comparison between the two one of those people who attended the
rallies resolves the political question as star rally is registered to vote and can
to who the top dog between the two persuade at least three more people to
opposition leaders is. Not that there was register to vote and to turn out to vote
ever any rivalry between the two, but to on polling day, the CCC will have done
the extent that there was any perception something remarkable.
of it, it must now be extinguished. The
regime was trying so hard to create the The most important call, therefore,
impression that Mwonzora and his par- and it must be incessant, is for everyone
ty were the legitimate opposition. They eligible to register to vote. To do well,
were even entertaining the idea of dia- the CCC needs a high Conversion Rate
logue. If anybody believed them, they — every rally attendee must be a voter.
were equally delusional. But after these Those who are not registered must reg-
two rallies and their sharply contrast- ister and those who are registered must
ing numbers, it would be embarrassing inspect the voters’ roll to be sure that
for anyone to mention Mwonzora and their details are correct. Without this it
Chamisa in the same sentence. Cha- may be yet another case of all froth and
misa and the CCC delivered an em- no beer; all bark and no bite; indeed, all
hat and no cattle. And that would be a
disaster.

*About the writer: Dr Alex Magaisa
is a law lecturer at Kent University in
Britain and former adviser to the late
Zimbabwean prime minister Morgan
Tsvangirai.

Page 46 Reframing Issues NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

Taona B. The political tour de force of 
Denhere CCC at Zimbabwe Grounds

THE historic Zimbabwe Grounds Citizens' Coalition for Change supporters at the Zimbabwe Grounds star rally held on Sunday. and Mnangagwa’s Marondera rally
in the poor but vibrant township of which had a paltry  live-streaming
Highfield in Harare occupy an im- PF to launch a new party that has re and Chitungwiza residents woke made their way to the Zimbabwe audience of 91 viewers. 
portant place in the political histo- re-energised his social base and given up to a plethora of police roadblocks Grounds where Chamisa addressed
riography of Zimbabwe as they have him a new momentum that he had mounted across the main roads and a huge rally which sent a loud and Due to the massive turnout  by
acted both literally and figuratively lost since the rigged 2018 presiden- byways that punctuate the  length clear message to Mnangagwa and both the denizens and the netizens
as the electoral battleground for the tial election that some say he won, and breadth of the city.  Mwonzora that he is the most popu- for the CCC star rally, as expected
heart and soul of the country.   but the result was stolen. lar politician in Zimbabwe.  the Zanu PF government  disabled
The images that filtered through and sabotaged the livestream net-
Zimbabwe  Grounds  acted as the Prior to the CCC star rally, signif- the social media showed massive Many believe that if a free and works. Telecoms regulator Potraz de-
launchpad and springboard for the  icant legal and political roadblocks traffic jams and vehicular gridlocks fair presidential election is held in nies this, but the evidence suggests
1980 general elections that followed as well as violence were put by the moving at snail's pace designed to Zimbabwe anytime, Chamisa could sabotage.
a protracted liberation struggle. It Zanu PF government to neutralise prevent mass movement of people actually overrun Mnangagwa to a
is on these grounds that the three the organisational and mobilisa- towards the Zimbabwe Grounds. landslide.  Nonetheless, Chamisa’s rally was
main African  political protagonists tional capacity of his party. The idea This repressive tactic is reminiscent a political tour de force. It clearly
launched and  spearheaded their was to make it difficult for Chami- of the same oppressive dirty tricks The atmosphere inside the ground shattered the illusion and the falla-
final star rallies before the March sa to organise a big rally that would employed by both the colonial Rho- was euphoric and carnival, filled cy that Mwonzora and the MDC-T
1980 general elections, the first to show who the most popular politi- desia and apartheid South Africa with voluntary and infectious  jubi- were a more popular and credible
include the majority black electorate cian in the opposition, and indeed governments to limit citizens’ free- lation and excitement. Video foot- alternative opposition. The CCC's
since Zimbabwe’s colonialisation in the country, is. The repressive police doms of movement, assembly and age showed some people perched on marvellous feat also send shockwaves
1890. clearance letter for the rally put re- association that were severely cur- trees trying to be part of the historic through the corridors of power as
strictive measures such as banning tailed. This is what they did when moment. This was quite reminiscent it showed that it was delusional of
The main contestants in the 1980 the CCC from busing its supporters they tried to contain and immobilise of the same atmosphere and antic- the authorities to think they would
elections, namely Robert Mugabe from other constituencies; prevent- the organisational and mobilisation- ipation that greeted both Nkomo degrade and finish off Chamisa
of Zanu PF, Joshua Nkomo of PF ing them from toyi-toying and slo- al capacities of the anti-apartheid and Mugabe when they held their by helping Mwonzora to seize the
Zapu and Bishop Abel Muzorewa of ganeering or singing and marching liberation movements. respective triumphant return star MDC headquarters, get the state
the UANC, gathered there to make in large numbers, and also having rallies in February 1980 in the same funds due to the opposition party
their return from war to engage the vehicular convoys.  However, this oppressive delay venue.  and recall his MPs.
people. and  dirty tactic was an exercise in
These police restrictive measures futility as it failed to dampen the This further demonstrates that Consequently, Chamisa’s mas-
It was a spectacle. Mugabe’s 1980 were not imposed on either Zanu PF spirits of CCC supporters. Chamisa and the CCC have won the sive political showing  fast-tracked
star rally reportedly had 120 000 when it held their Epworth and Ma- battle for hearts and minds within Mwonzora and the MDC’s  head-
people, Nkomo 100 000 and Mu- rondera rallies nor on MDC-T when In the early morning of that day, the opposition political ecosystem long plunge into political oblivion.
zorewa "Hurudza" star rally attract- it held its Highfield and Bulawayo multitudes of CCC supporters could despite having spent the last two Moreover, this robust organisational
ed 90 000. rallies, which highlighted selective be seen jovially singing, dancing and years in the political wilderness after and mobilisational demonstration
application of the law once more. sloganeering while marching towards the vindictive and unjustified parlia- by the CCC and Chamisa has set the
Mugabe and Zanu PF eventually the Zimbabwe Grounds. Despite the mentary recalls by Mwonzora and tone and drew the political and elec-
won a landslide. CCC activists were also arrested police roadblocks, an endless yellow the MDC-T. toral battlelines between the CCC
two days before the rally and barbar- stream of CCC supporters flowed in and the Zanu PF. 
Since Nobel Prize winner William ically subjected to frenzied beatings and converged into a mighty Zimba- There were also live-streaming
Faulkner said "the past is not dead, by the police in a bid to stop them bwe Grounds sea of people. feeds on social media which had Apart from showing who is the
it is not even past”, it was essential from attending the rally. viewership and listenership of nearly main opposition between the CCC
to take a brief detour into the past The fearless grassroots support 14 000. This was in direct contrast to and MDC, the forthcoming by-elec-
in order to recontextualise the sig- In the early hours of Sunday base of the CCC managed to breach the MDC-T’s Pelandaba rally in Bu- tions would also be a dress rehearsal
nificance of the inaugural  political morning, the day of the rally, Hara- the police roadblocks and thousands lawayo which had a mere 70 viewers and curtain-raiser for the ultimate
star  rally of the Citizens' Coalition 2023 general elections showdown,
for Change (CCC) led by Nelson which will pit Mnangagwa against
Chamisa held on 20 February 2022 Chamisa again.  
at the Zimbabwe Grounds. 
In 2018, Mnangagwa was at the
The CCC is a new political kid height of his popularity after remov-
on the block, which was midwifed ing the late former president Robert
from the inevitable  collateral dam- Mugabe through a coup, but now
age inflicted upon Chamisa and his popularity ratings have dropped
his key allies by their erstwhile significantly due to his leadership,
comrades-turned-arch-nemesis in policy and governance failures.
the now  judicially-constructed
MDC-T, which also bizarrely claims The political statement made by
to be the MDC-Alliance that was led Chamisa and the CCC last Sunday
by Chamisa. has not gone unnoticed by the Zanu
PF government.  We are going to
This is the mess and madness that witness state-sanctioned systematic
forced Chamisa to form a new party, pattern of repressive violence and
CCC. a weaponised judiciary deployed
against both the top leadership and
President Emmerson Mnangag- the rank-and-file of the CCC. 
wa’s Proclamation 1 of 2022  under
Statutory Instrument  2 of 2022 set Having realised the futility of
the tone of electioneering into full its initial plan to immobilise and
swing. Mnangagwa and MDC-T neutralise Chamisa through  prop-
leader Douglas Mwonzora last week ping its puppet trojan horse in the
held their star rallies in Epworth and MDC-T, Zanu PF will default to its
Highfield respectively. The CCC factory settings: Violence and bru-
also held its rally in Highfield. tality.

It is important to unpack and Greek media scholar Alexandra
analyse these political developments Boutopoula once famously said:
and their implications in the short to “They tried to bury us, but they did
medium term. not know that we were seeds”. 
Political statement of intent
While Mnangagwa held his rallies The Frankenstein show of politi-
in Epworth and Marondera, where cal, organisational and mobilisation-
people were bused in, Mwonzora’s al force by the CCC at the Zimba-
rally in Highfield was a non-event. It bwe Grounds aptly shows Chamisa
exposed him as a charlatan with no and his key allies are still a formi-
meaningful political base and elec- dable political force to reckon with,
toral agenda beyond his Zanu PF- notwithstanding various state-or-
backed shenanigans to fight fellow chestrated plots in the past two years
opposition comrades.  to politically neutralise and  emascu-
late them. 
Mwonzora leads an opposition
party which is more opposed to the Chamisa remains the man to beat,
opposition than the ruling party. not Mnangagwa’s lackey Mwonzora.
And the electorate has seen through
his deceit and has reacted with dis- *About the writer: Taona Bless-
dain and boycotts. ing Denhere is a human rights and
international development lawyer
By contrast, Chamisa has survived based in the United Kingdom.
the siege from Mwonzora and Zanu

NewsHawks Reframing Issues Page 47

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

Taona B. Why the end is nigh for the 
Denhere MDC, Douglas Mwonzora

BRITISH writer and political com- …‘Mwonzorewa’ the undertaker
mentator Owen Jones in his seminal
work The Establishment: And How working class township of High- regime which has ruined Zimba- speech” was nicodemously pre-writ- sign on Mwonzora and his par-
They Get Away With It opined field, Harare, was revealing as he bwe and left a legacy of poverty and ten by Mwonzora on the eve of the ty’s onward journey towards the
that “politicians are stripped naked was launching his judicially-con- suffering.  Supreme Court judgment.  They Mbudzi political cemetery was the
and with no warning, shoved onto structed party for by-elections knew they had “won”. MDC-T’s controversial and chaotic
stage. The audience gasps: someone on 26 March, bring into  sharp As Zimbabwe commemorated extraordinary burial of December
familiar stands before them, but focus the question on the future National Youth Day on 21 Febru- This clearly showed there was an 2020, euphemistically christened 
now, under the unforgiving glare of or lack thereof of the MDC-T or ary – Mugabe’s birthday – that was unmistakable devious and  under- as the extraordinary congress. 
the spotlights, the character is final- MDC-Alliance, whatever the party a painful reminder of how the coun- hand dirty tactics plot by the Zanu
ly exposed for who it really is. Yet, is now called.  try has been destroyed, yet people PF government in manipulating The congress was meant to ad-
as suddenly as the figure appears, it ironically celebrate the author of the courts to destroy Chamisa’s dress the constitutional issue red-
is covered up again and taken back The recent poorly attended its ruination under the guise of his party and hopefully career. The fact flagged in Mashavira’s Supreme
to where it belongs: offstage”. MDC-T rallies are the latest har- vague and contestable achievements that Mwonzora and Komichi knew Court judgment. However, it  be-
bingers of the inevitable demise of that pale significantly in compari- the judicial outcome of the Su- came an application of dealing with
This is quite revelatory and in- the MDC in its various manifes- son to his glaring failures. preme Court case before its official symptoms rather than the cause of
structive with the latest political tations and the end of Mwonzo- announcement was clear demon- the disease. 
reality check that confronted the ra’s political career. The moment It was on this fateful day that the strable evidence of the treacherous
Douglas Mwonzora-led MDC-T Thokozani Khupe, Mwonzora and Supreme Court decided to  rewrite conduct of a compromised and Despite being provided with un-
and MDC-Alliance, which he Morgen Komichi, and other pre- history and attempted to recon- captured judiciary. precedented state largesse, includ-
seized from Nelson Chamisa, on 12 tenders assumed the leadership of struct a bridge on water which had ing money, transport logistics and
February 2022.  the MDC-T in March 2020, that already passed. The judicially-con- Once armed with Mashavira the Rainbow Towers Conference
marked the beginning of the end of structed  MDC-T weaponised the case’s Supreme Court  judgment, Centre, the MDC-T still failed to
Politics is a game of numbers, so the party. controversial court judgment to po- Komichi and Mwonzora went on gather enough delegates to consti-
goes the old age adage. This means litically cannibalise the then Cha- an unrestrained political and par- tute the constitutionally required
political supporters are the oxygen Road to the political graveyard misa-led MDC-Alliance.  liamentary cannibalisation of the quorum. Suffice it to say the so-
for any political organisation and The date 31 March 2020 will MDC-Alliance through vindictive called extraordinary congress was
in an unforgiving high-testosterone go down in local political history On that fateful day, Komichi, and systematic recalls of both real plagued by mobocracy and blatant
and populist-driven environment as the  beginning of the end of the accompanied by his other co-con- and perceived sympathisers and irregularities amid allegations of
such as ours, any politician or polit- MDC as a progressive opposition spirator Mwonzora, gleefully recit- supporters of Chamisa.  electoral fraud and vote-rigging lev-
ical organisation worth its salt must movement formed in 1999.  ed a prepared victory speech and elled against Mwonzora. 
possess this type of political oxygen The party had fought tooth and in the process read the riot act to The callous and ruthless parlia-
and immune system in order to nail the late president Robert Mug- his erstwhile comrades in Chamisa’s mentary recalls were being ventril- In those circumstances, Mwon-
circumnavigate the political mine- abe and his authoritarian Zanu PF MDC-Alliance.  oquised as upholding and restoring zora controversially assumed the
fields and slippery slopes. the constitutional dictates of the leadership of the MDC-T, ridicu-
Through the passage of time it MDC-T. The first significant road lously pitching his modus operan-
Mwonzora’s inaugural political  later transpired that the “victory
rally at Zororo Grounds in  the

Page 48 Reframing Issues NewsHawks

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

di under the “rational disputation” who was at the forefront of fighting Magaisa were quick to point out Chitungwiza.  Therefore, the Zoro- late Edgar Tekere, the United Par-
mantra, which is quintessentially Chamisa at the beginning, dropped that the credible litmus test to ro Grounds where Mwonzora held ties of the late Abel Muzorewa and
the politics of appeasement, co-op- a political bombshell when she un- objectively assess the shrewdness his inaugural  ill-fated and poorly Zud of Margaret Dongo, to name
tion and ingratiating the Zanu PF compromisingly declared she had of Mwonzora was in the court of attended rally became a fitting met- just a few. Ironically, Mwonzora
regime. That is clearly the antithesis decided to split her MDC-T faction public opinion, not the captured aphor for the burial of the MDC was an active political player when
of the MDC’s  traditional opposi- from Mwonzora’s MDC-T/A. This judiciary, particularly in the unfor- with him being the undertaker. both Zum and the UP went to their
tional politics of progressive and further weakened Mwonzora and giving opposition heartlands of the political graves. Now Mwonzora is
adversarial engagement to hold his faction of the MDC-T. Conse- urban townships and its environs. The fourth road sign on Mwon- acting as the political undertaker.  
government to account.  quently, Khupe deprived Mwonzo- zora and the MDC-T's downward
ra of the residual Matabeleland so- On that rain-soaked sunny Sat- spiral towards political oblivion will However, when the future gen-
Consequently, under the stew- cial and political base she possessed.  urday it became a politically harsh be the 26 March by-elections. Thus, erations retrieve the MDC-T/
ardship of Mwonzora, the MDC-T reality check for Mwonzora and with each passing day it is becoming MDC-Alliance death certificate,
showed neirher the political will Khupe went on to urge voters the MDC-T as it turned out to be increasingly clear that the MDC-T the cause of the political death will
nor the inclination to advocate for not to vote for either Mwonzora a moment of truth which shattered is heading towards an embarrassing be written as the “tunnelled vision
electoral contests, especially for or Zanu PF in the forthcoming the myth of being a strategic and electoral drubbing.  and myopic power-hungry procliv-
the outstanding by-elections, and by-elections. Mwonzora’s MDC-T smooth operator. The so-called star ities of Mwonzora, Khupe and Ko-
electoral reforms. The MDC-T, will struggle to make an impact rally at Zororo Grounds turned out Accordingly, the past two years michi”. 
through public utterances from nationally without the Matabele- to be a joke.  both Mwonzora and his newlook
Mwonzora and Komichi, showed land vote which Khupe would have MDC-T/MDC-Alliance have trag- Additionally, the epitaph on the
its willingness to short-circuit and brought no matter how small com- When Mwonzora finally arrived ically failed to win the battle of political tombstone of the MDC
subvert constitutional democracy pared to Chamisa’s support and in- at Zororo Grounds, he ridiculous- hearts and minds within the oppo- shall read: “Betrayed by Mwonzora,
through advocating for politics of fluence. ly tried to stroke his bruised ego sition ecosystem.  Komichi and Khupe”.
co-option through dialogue that and rig attendance by lying with a
will result in an elite pact in the The third  and important sign straight face that there were 5 000 Moreover, the  emergence of  the It is this historical political  affil-
form of a Government of National on  Mwonzora’s journey towards people in attendance yet the num- popular Chamisa-led Citizens' Co- iation of Mwonzora with Muzore-
Unity.  the Mbudzi political graveyard was ber of attendees was just under 350.  alition for Change on the political wa, who is infamously renowned
the event on 12 February as parties landscape has clearly made the po- as the  grandfather of the politics
Furthermore, the MDC-T be- started their campaigns for by-elec- Even the state-run media outlets sition of MDC-T/MDC-Alliance of appeasement and puppetry,
came a willing tool in the tyrani- tions.  such as the Sunday Mail, which politically and electorally unten- that has earned him the moniker
sation and dismemberment of the had since March 2020 provided able. The forthcoming by-election "Mwonzorewa". This clearly shows
national constitution by the Zanu On 12 February, Mwonzora unprecedented favourable coverage will  further push the MDC and Mwonzora is ideologically and po-
PF through uncritically and naively launched his electoral campaign at to Mwonzora and the MDC-T in Mwonzora towards their political litically rooted in the politics of
endorsing as well as supporting the Zororo Grounds in Highfield, Ha- an attempt to prop them up, objec- grave . co-option, puppetry and appease-
controversial constitutional amend- rare. This was the much-awaited tively showed the video clip of the ment, an approach diametrically
ments number 1 and number 2. All first political rally of MDC-T un- sparsely attended MDC-T rally.  Needless to say that the final opposed to the radical, progressive,
the above clearly show Mwonzora, der Mwonzora by both neutral and beacon that will eventually lead adversarial  and combative politics
Komichi and the whole of MDC-T concerned observers. This was cru- Now the Zanu PF government Mwonzora and his party to the of Morgan Tsvangirai, which have
were just mere constitutionalists cial because since the controversial itself has realised that it was terribly Mbudzi political cemetery will be now found expression in the Citi-
of convenience who  promoted  a March 2020 Mashavira judgment, wrong in gambling on propping up the 2023 general elections. After zens' Coalition for Change.
warped, corrupted and self-serving in which most judicial and parlia- Mwonzora as part of an authoritari- the by-elections, Mwonzora and his
doctrine of constitutionalism with- mentary decisions went in blatant an consolidation effort to neutralise party will be pushed further    to- Ultimately, Mwonzora and his
out constitutionalists.  favour of the MDC-T, Mwonzora and emasculate Chamisa. This is  wards the  slippery cliff edge of po- MDC-T/MDC-Alliance ilk will be
and supporters as well as handlers buttressed by  Zanu PF spokes- litical demise  by the 2023 general like Muzorewa and Morris Nyathi
The  second significant signpost began to propagate a fallacious and person Chris Mutsvangwa’s  recent elections. There will be no MDC to who conspired to derail and subvert
on the road towards the Mbudzi delusional  theory that he is an ad- media utterances when he admitted talk about after 2023. the democratic struggle of the peo-
political cemetery was when Kh- ept, shrewd and strategic political that the MDC is politically dead.  ple.
upe threw the political spanners in operator who had outmanoeuvred In that Mbudzi political ceme-
Mwonzora's petty MDC-T project.   Chamisa.  Ironically, Zororo in our Shona tery, the lifeless political corpse of *About the writer: Taona Bless-
cultural cosmology means a place the MDC-T/MDC-Alliance will  ing Denhere is a human rights and
On 21 January 2022, Khupe, However, analysts such as Alex of final rest and, as such, there join other dead parties such as the international development lawyer
is a cemetery named Zororo in Zimbabwe Unity Movement of the based in the United Kingdom.

The MDC-T led by Douglas Mwonzora held a rally on Saturday at Zororo Grounds in Highfields.

NewsHawks Reframing Issues Page 49

Issue 69, 25 February 2022

JAMES A ROBINSON/SOEREN J HENN Africa’s latent assets problem for a state with weak capacity,
to be solved, but China’s history is again no? Not at all. Within a matter of days,
WILL Africa finally begin a sustained revealing. Deng did not solve all the in- the Nigerian state contact traced and
convergence to the living standards of stitutional problems for China’s latent quarantined over 500 people. Ebola was
the developed world in the way China assets to lead to an economic take-off. stopped in its tracks. The Nigerian state
has done in the last 40 years? If so, on Critically, he knew, even in a challeng- may be weak in many dimensions, but
what basis will that happen? ing context, which areas could best take in personal connections to society, crit-
advantage of the latent assets the society ical for something like contact process-
While many scholars and commen- possessed. ing, it is far stronger than the US, which
tators see few similarities between the Such is the task for African policy- was never able to implement such a
Chinese and African economic experi- makers: To stop focusing on shopping system during the Covid-19 pandemic.
ences, we argue that, in fact, there are lists of Western best practices and, in- A latent asset of most African states is
profound similarities, which Africa stead, become attuned to where the that they are deeply embedded in soci-
can draw from. Prior to Deng Xiaop- constraints that stop the latent assets of ety. Maybe this cannot be leveraged to
ing’s 1978 reforms, China suffered for their societies from flourishing are. do many of things they are “supposed”
200 years. The country was convulsed Here is an example: On 20 July to do, but perhaps it can be used to do
by civil wars, corruption, colonialism, 2014, a Nigerian-American infected many other things, which are critical to
state failure, and disastrous, misguided with Ebola landed in Lagos, Nigeria sustaining economic growth.
economic policies like the Great Leap from Liberia. He collapsed and died
Forward. But it turned out that China four days later, having lied about hav- —Foresight Africa.
had many latent assets and hidden social ing been in contact with Ebola patients. *About the writers: James A. Rob-
strengths on which economic prosperity He was initially treated for malaria, inson is a professor of global conflict
could be built. A central one was a so- and, before people understood the true studies and institute director of The
cial norm that, as Confucius put it, one problem, he had infected medical staff Pearson Institute for the Study and
should “promote those who are worthy who infected others. An insuperable Resolution of Global Conflicts at the
and talented,” (2003, p. 138). Meritoc- University of Chicago Harris School
racy turned out to be a powerful asset of Public Policy, US. Soeren J. Henn is
on which to build an inclusive market a post-doctoral research fellow at The
economy once Deng Xiaoping initiated Pearson Institute at the  University of
his reform plan. Chicago.

In the modern period, Africa has
similarly suffered from many of the
same adverse shocks and syndromes.
Then again, we believe, also like China,
Africa has deep latent assets, of which
we focus on three. If properly recog-
nized and harnessed, such assets can not
only evoke a new way of thinking about
the future of economic development in
the continent, but turn Africa’s econom-
ic potential into economic success.

Meritocracy. Like China, the majority
of African societies are built on achieved,
not ascribed status: Indeed, data shows
that Africans’ perceptions and anticipa-
tions of social mobility are the highest
in the world. These expectations are
important for behavior and policy pref-
erences. Why are Africans so optimistic?
One reason is that they see that their
lives and futures are under their control.
More than anywhere else,  Africans are
more likely to say that the way to get
ahead economically is through hard
work, not luck and connections. These
are also exactly the values they wish to
transmit to their children.

Cosmopolitanism. This second asset
is distinct from the Chinese experience.
Because of the heterogeneous and small-
scale nature of African society, Africans
endlessly deal with differences: Differ-
ent languages, different cultures, and
different histories. Africans are the least
mono-lingual people in the world and,
interestingly,  the word for “stranger”
and “guest” are the same in most Afri-
can languages. This experience makes
Africans the most able culturally to cope
with our modern globalized world —
and people who can deal with differenc-
es and adapt will succeed.

Skepticism towards authority. The fi-
nal asset, also different from China, is
Africa’s political culture, which features
a deep skepticism towards authority.
Historically, this tendency kept the size
of African polities small. Today, it can
form the basis for effective inclusive
states that work in the national interest
because people are skeptical and thus
attuned to the abuse of power. The dif-
ficult political terrain that the colonial
powers bequeathed the region has pre-
vented the formation of such states. But
the latent skepticism holds significant
promise: Africa will not fall foul of the
types of charismatic populists that one
sees in Latin America.

Africa’s latent talents are sociological,
as China’s were, and they point to the
real reason to be optimistic about the
future: Not the extent of natural re-
sources, but the talents and character of
Africa’s peoples. For them to bear fruit,
some basic institutional problems have

Page 50 Critical Thinking NewsHawks

JANET ZHOU Issue 69, 25 February 2022

RECENTLY, I participated in a pow- Zimbabwe migration crisis is a
erful policy dialogue organised by logical outcome of Sadc silence
Sapes Trust on the plight of Zimba-
bwean immigrants in South Africa. Zimbabwe economic migrants crawl under the border fence into South Africa.

Following the decision not to re- grants in South Africa. Zimbabweans Migration and South Africa develop policies aimed at the progres- The economics behind migration
new exemption permits for 178 000 are therefore the largest foreign pop- Viewing the pull factors of econom- sive elimination of obstacles to the Throughout the history of colonial-
Zimbabweans at the end of December ulation group in South Africa.  Atti- ic opportunities in South Africa has free movement of capital and labour, ism, racist capitalist development and
2021, fears of xenophobia -- which tudinal studies in the informal sector meant strained relationships and goods and services and of the people the present neoliberal capitalist orders
some have described as Afrophobia in Cape Town  indicate that Zimbos the erosion of “Ubuntu” as refugees, of the region generally among mem- in southern Africa, the obligation to
-- were heightened.   I choose to go are also the most disliked nationality whether economic or political, were ber states. The ineptness is founded support the reproduction of the next
further and characterise it as “Zimbo- among surveyed people. So do spare no longer welcome. This change of on the systemic nature of the South generation of workers through decent
phobia” given the surge in  xenopho- a thought for the millions of Zimba- attitude in South Africa has been ex- African political and economic mod- wages and living conditions has been
bic incidences from 2005 to date. The bweans who daily suffer harassment pressed by high-ranking officials, the el. The same relates to the push factors predominantly outsourced. Likewise,
surge, around 2008, coincided with and targeted violence, sometimes cul- latest being Home Affairs minister in Zimbabwe. Without addressing for the majority of migrant workers,
the mass exodus of Zimbabweans as minating in open and typical  "zim- Aaron Motsoaledi, who is on record those underlying issues, the migrants capital and government will assume
the country’s multi-faceted political, bophobic" violence and hostility as is as saying: in South Africa, and Zimbabweans in no responsibility for their retirement,
social and economic crises deepened currently happening. The majority of particular, given their numbers, find social security and health, naturally
during that period due to a number these, our brothers and our sisters, are “People keep blaming the immi- themselves between a rock and a hard as they expected to return across the
of factors. at the same time subsidising the South gration services of SA as if when one place. border as migrant streams continue
African middle-income economy and country creates a crisis, the country to circulate. But back across the bor-
As was pointed out by Moelet- households as maids, waiters, and closest to it must respond by building The perfect implementation of der, the burdens of reproduction and
si Mbeki at the same  Sapes Policy skilled labourers, mostly in insecure the requisite capacity to deal with that existing normative frameworks guar- social care remain disproportionately
Dialogue -- and I largely share his and exploitative conditions. It is the crisis. That’s the logic here…There’s anteeing migrant rights in South Af- implanted on the shoulders of already
opinion -- the mass migration of reasonable prospects of finding a job also this belief that SA has abundant rica is insufficient to protect migrant marginalised women and poor farm-
Zimbabweans has mostly to do with that compel the majority of Zimba- resources for everybody. That’s non- rights without radical measures to ers in rural areas where the majority
the inimical policies of the Zanu PF bwean migrants to risk arriving ille- sense. No country has the capacity dismantle the primitive accumulation of migrant workers come from. The
government since 2000. Beginning gally in South Africa, through either to accommodate everyone who has underpinning neoliberal capitalist sys- scars of labour migratory systems are
with the ill-conceived fast-track land dangerous crossings or hefty bribes. problems in the country they come tems in South Africa and Zimbabwe. particularly evident in dry and climate
reform programme (displacing hun- from. In other words, when more and The same system is being regionalised crisis-impacted reserves where entire
dreds of thousands of commercial The characterisation of the Zimba- more people come, we must be able all over Sadc and the growing inter- generations of young people have
farm workers and their families), the bwean migrants, therefore, is main- to hire more and our resources must nal displacements in countries like fled, leaving the remaining communi-
downstream effects of the disruption ly economic. South Africa has been expand. That’s not on.” Mozambique and Zimbabwe to pave ties without the labour to sustain local
of commercial agriculture (collapsing viewed as the land of opportunities by way for mega-business projects attest economies, especially in agriculture.
a significant portion of manufactur- Zimbabweans who are reeling under At community level, in particular, to this worrisome trend.   There are Of course, the “reserves” were delib-
ing and service industries, and thou- the triple burden of extreme pover- those stricken by the poverty, unem- reasons why the progressive Common erately created by the colonial system
sands of jobs lost), and the continuous ty, unemployment and inequality. ployment and inequality prevalent in Market for East and Southern Africa to compel Africans to choose wage
decline in the economy. Additionally, The underclass has been left hopeless South Africa have viewed the foreign (Comesa) protocol on the free move- labour over traditional farming in
migration was fuelled by the repeat- while wealth transfers into private migrants as rivals in the pull factors ment of persons, labour, services, the un-arable lands in the first place.
ed violent elections, and Operation hands through grand corruption and that have attracted cheap migrant right of establishment and residence
Murambatsvina (and other continued economic mismanagement, and im- labour to farms, restaurants, mines, (2001), or the Sadc or Ecowas equiv- What becomes clearer is that, as
displacements to date). punity continues unabated in a coun- informal sector, street vending, com- alents, have had limited effect. The long as the push and pull factors of
Migration in southern Africa try once described as "the jewel of mercial sex work, middle-upper class reasons lie in the fact that the migrant migration serve the ruling political
Previous mass migrations in the re- Africa". homes and industries. The rivalry has labour system has had a historical and elite and business at both ends, border
gion had mainly been caused by wars been expressed in violent xenophobic contemporary contribution to the controls are made porous to facilitate
and conflicts. This meant that most The push factors remain largely un- attacks which the South African au- South African economy as a supply that movement of undocumented
of the migrants were refugees fleeing addressed. The major push factors for thorities have taken a long time to ac- of relatively cheap labour. And behind migrant labourers. South African and
their home countries to seek refuge the Zimbabwean diaspora have been cept and address. the human suffering embedded in the Zimbabwe have been by far the ma-
in neighbouring countries from po- bad governance, human rights viola- migrant labour system are millions jor beneficiaries of the transnation-
litical, social and economic challeng- tions, structural violence and policy The South African response has of dollars in profits for predominant- al system of labour migration since
es caused by conflict. For example, disillusionment. Since Independence been inept despite the existence of ly white-owned farms, restaurants, Wenela. Zimbabwe has remained a
during the Mozambican civil war, it in 1980, these have had serious ripple the  Southen African Development mines and factories. The system is permanent source of cheap proletariat
was estimated that two million had effects on the economy and, ultimate- Community (Sadc) protocol on fa- where the problem lies.
become refugees (mostly in Malawi). ly, livelihoods. cilitation of the movement of persons
In Zimbabwe, a significant number of (2005). The protocol requires Sadc to
Mozambicans worked on farms and
in the mines, but the spirit of “Ubun-
tu”  which exists amongst many Af-
ricans allowed the embracing of the
migrants and co-existence was the
norm. Prejudices could be deduced in
the derogatory names given to the ref-
ugees, but these never turned violent.

The migration for economic rea-
sons of the past decades is the trans-
national system of labour migration
otherwise known as Wenela. Both
Zimbabwe and South Africa were
the major beneficiaries as the  Africa
of labour reserves  characterised by a
combination of great mineral wealth,
commercial agriculture and chronic
labour shortages. Since then, Zimba-
bwe has remained a permanent source
of cheap proletariat labour for the
South African economy depending
on the push and pull factors of the
migrants.

It is estimated that more than three
million Zimbabweans are migrants
in different countries, but mainly in
South Africa where estimates indicate
that since 2015, over a million Zim-
babweans have involuntarily fled to
South Africa mainly "to look for jobs",
but significant numbers would also fit
the description of “refugee”  due to
the political violence.   According to
United Nations data, Zimbabweans
constitute 24% of all foreign immi-