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Appendix Figure 1: Price of copper in real terms, 30-year sample
Appendix Figure 2: Price of copper in real terms, 226-year sample

49

Appendix Table 1: Errors in forecasting budget surplus (official forecast – actual)

expressed as % of GDP

One year Two year Three year

ahead ahead ahead

budget budget budget

Actual fiscal forecast forecast forecast

balance error error error

Australia Mean -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 1.2

1985-2009 Min -2.7 -1.6 -1.4 -0.9

Max 1.7 4.0 3.3 3.2

Obs. 26 25 14 2

Austria Mean -1.8 0.3 0.7 0.9
1999-2009 Min
Max -3.9 -0.6 -1.3 -1.3
Obs.
-0.2 3.2 3.3 4.1

13 11 10 9

Belgium Mean -1.0 0.2 1.0 1.3
1999-2009 Min
Max -5.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0
Obs.
0.3 2.4 6.2 6.6

13 11 10 9

Canada Mean -2.1 -0.9 -0.7 NA
1985-2008 Min -8.6 -2.6 -2.5 NA
Max 1.3 0.5 1.7 NA
Obs.
26 23 20 0

Chile Mean 2.2 -1.4 NA NA
1977-2009 Min -5.5 -8.3 NA NA
Max 8.9 8.1 NA NA
Obs.
33 33 0 0

Cyprus Mean -2.8 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4
2005-2009 Min -6.5 -4.9 -5.1 -4.8
Max 3.3 5.3 6.6 5.7
Obs.
12 5 4 3

Czech Republic Mean -4.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.4
2005-2009 Min
Max -6.8 -2.4 -1.9 -1.7
Obs.
-1.6 5.0 3.6 3.6

13 5 4 3

Denmark Mean 1.6 0.1 0.2 0.1
1999-2008 Min -3.0 -2.8 -3.1 -2.8
Max 4.8 3.0 5.0 4.8

50

Obs. 13 11 10 9

Estonia Mean 0.3 -0.3 0.4 1.4
2005-2009 Min -3.5 -3.3 -3.4 -2.8
Max 3.4 4.1 4.1 4.2
Finland Obs.
1999-2009 13 5 4 3
Mean
France Min 2.8 -0.5 -0.8 -0.3
1996-2009 Max
Obs. -2.2 -2.5 -4.7 -3.1
Germany
1991-2009 Mean 6.9 4.3 5.8 4.9
Min
Greece Max 13 11 10 9
2000-2009 Obs.
-3.5 0.6 1.5 2.2
Hungary Mean -7.9 -0.5 -0.4 0.1
2005-2009 Min -1.5 4.0 6.2 7.0
Max
Ireland Obs. 16 14 10 9
1999-2009
Mean -3.0 1.0 1.4 1.3
Italy Min
1990-2009 Max -4.8 -1.7 -2.5 -2.0
Obs.
Latvia 0.0 3.5 3.4 3.8
2005-2009 Mean
Min 19 19 18 9
Max
Obs. -5.5 4.3 5.4 6.0
-12.7 0.3 0.1 0.9
Mean 9.0 11.9 11.5
Min -2.9 10 9 8
Max 13
Obs.
-6.1 1.7 2.2 1.9
Mean -9.3 -1.3 -0.5 0.7
Min -3.0 4.6 6.2 3.1
Max
Obs. 13 5 4 3

Mean 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.9
Min
Max -11.7 -3.6 -3.6 -4.1

4.7 6.3 10.6 12.3

13 11 10 9

-7.9 1.1 1.6 2.6
-18.1 -3.8 -3.5 0.5
4.2
-1.8 5.8 5.2
25 20 19 9

-2.1 1.5 2.9 3.7
-10.0 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4
6.5 11.0 9.6
1.4

51

Obs. 13 5 4 3

Lithuania Mean -3.4 1.4 2.7 3.7
2005-2009 Min -11.9 -2.0 -1.3 -0.3
Max
Luxemburg Obs. -0.5 7.0 9.3 9.1
1999-2009 13 5 4 3
Mean
Malta Min 2.3 -1.7 -1.4 -0.7
2005-2009 Max
Obs. -1.2 -4.8 -4.8 -4.8
Mexico
1995-2009 Mean 6.1 2.2 2.6 4.6
Min
Netherlands Max 13 11 10 9
1995-2009 Obs.
-5.7 0.9 1.8 2.6
New Zealand Mean -9.9 -0.7 -0.5 0.4
1995-2008 Min -1.8 3.5 3.8 3.9
Max
Poland Obs. 13 5 4 3
2005-2009
Mean -0.6 0.1 NA NA
Portugal Min -2.3 -0.1 NA NA
1999-2009 Max 0.1 0.6 NA NA
Obs.
Slovakia 15 15 0 0
2005-2009 Mean
Min -2.7 0.6 0.4 0.7
Max
Obs. -11.0 -2.3 -2.6 -2.3

Mean 1.3 7.1 5.5 5.8
Min
Max 17 15 10 9
Obs.
1.9 -0.1 -0.4 -0.8
Mean
Min -0.9 -4.2 -3.9 -0.8
Max
Obs. 7.3 2.9 3.9 -0.8

Mean 18 13 12 1
Min
Max -4.4 1.6 2.1 2.7
-7.2 0.4 -0.2 -0.2
-2.0 4.7 5.2 6.6

13 5 4 3

-3.9 1.4 2.3 3.1
-9.3 -1.0 -1.0 0.1
-2.7 5.4 7.8 7.8

13 11 10 9

-5.2 0.5 1.4 1.9
-12.2 -0.7 -0.1 0.3
4.4
-2.2 3.3 4.5

52

Obs. 13 5 4 3

Slovenia Mean -2.6 -0.2 0.9 1.5
2005-2009 Min -1.0
Max -5.7 -1.4 -1.3 4.7
South Africa Obs.
1998-2008 -0.1 0.9 5.1 3
Mean
Spain Min 13 5 4 -1.5
1999-2009 Max -4.4
Obs. -1.6 -0.3 -1.3 0.2
Sweden -5.2 -2.8 -4.0
1998-2009 Mean 1.7 5.6 0.9 9
Min
Switzerland Max 13 11 10 1.6
1990-2003 Obs. -1.8
-1.6 0.9 1.5 12.3
Mean -11.4 -1.2 -1.6
Min 9
Max 2.2 5.6 12.6
Obs. 13 11 10 1.4
-2.5
Mean 0.8 0.4 0.7 5.3
Min -2.2 -1.7 -2.3
Max 3.8 3.5 5.3 9
Obs.
14 12 11 NA
NA
-0.4 -0.2 -0.2 NA
-2.2 -2.9 -2.3
0.8 1.4 1.0 0

16 14 13 2.8
-0.7
United Mean -3.0 0.8 1.8 10.9
Kingdom Min -12.6 -1.4 -1.9
1997-2009 Max 9
Obs. 2.7 4.5 10.2
25 13 11 3.1
-0.6
United States Mean -2.7 0.4 1.0 8.5
1986-2009 Min -9.9 -2.2 -3.1
Max 2.6 7.2 8.7 3
Obs.
26 24 23 1.5
-4.8
Total Mean -1.9 0.2 0.8 12.3
Min -18.1 -8.3 -5.1 179
Max
Obs. 8.9 9.0 12.6
535 399 300

Years are those that we have data for the one year ahead budget forecast error.

53

Appendix Table 2: Errors in forecasting GDP growth rate

(official forecast – actual)

One year Two year Three year

ahead GDP ahead GDP ahead GDP

growth rate growth rate growth rate

Actual GDP forecast forecast forecast

growth rate error error error

Australia Mean 3.1 0.2 0.8 NA
1987-2009
Min -0.8 -2.0 0.4 NA

Max 4.6 2.8 1.1 NA

Obs. 24 23 2 0

Austria Mean 1.9 0.1 0.9 1.0
1999-2009 Min
Max -3.4 -1.5 -1.0 -1.2
Obs.
3.6 2.0 5.9 5.9

13 11 10 9

Belgium Mean 1.8 0.0 0.9 1.1
1999-2009 Min -3.1 -1.2 -1.4 -0.6
Max 3.7 1.7 5.1 5.3
Obs.
13 11 10 9
Canada Mean
1985-2003 Min 2.9 -0.3 0.4 NA
Max -1.7 -3.3 -2.6 NA
Obs. 5.1 2.0 4.7 NA

Chile Mean 21 18 17 0
1981, 1985-2008 Min
Max 4.9 -0.8 NA 0 NA
Obs. -10.3 -7.3 NA NA
12.3 4.6 NA NA

28 25 0

Cyprus Mean 3.3 0.7 1.6 2.3
2005-2009 Min -1.7 -0.5 0.1 0.4
Max 5.9 3.8 5.7 5.8
Obs.
13 5 4 3

Czech Republic Mean 2.6 0.8 1.7 2.6
2005-2009 Min -4.0 -2.8 -2.5 -2.7
Max 6.5 7.7 9.0 8.8
Obs.
13 5 4 3

Denmark Mean 1.4 0.5 0.6 1.0
1999-2009 Min
Max -4.3 -1.9 -2.6 -2.0
Obs.
3.9 4.1 5.4 5.0

13 11 10 9

54

Estonia Mean 5.2 2.4 6.5 10.3
2005-2009 Min -14.5 -4.6 -5.2 -1.1
Max 11.2 11.0 20.6 22.1
Finland Obs.
1999-2009 13 5 4 3
Mean
France Min 2.7 0.7 0.7 0.9
1998-2009 Max
Obs. -7.6 -1.7 -2.5 -2.5
Germany
1992-2009 Mean 6.1 8.2 10.6 10.2
Min
Greece Max 13 11 10 9
2000-2009 Obs.
1.7 0.6 1.0 1.3
Hungary Mean -2.3 -0.9 -1.4 0.0
2005-2009 Min 3.9 2.7 4.8 4.6
Max
Ireland Obs. 14 12 10 9
1999-2009
Mean 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.7
Italy Min
1991-2009 Max -5.0 -1.5 -1.5 -0.7
Obs.
Latvia 3.9 5.2 6.5 6.8
2005-2009 Mean
Min 20 18 18 9
Max
Obs. 3.5 0.2 0.7 0.9
-1.2 -1.2 -1.0 -0.6
Mean 5.0 2.3 5.2 5.3
Min
Max 13 10 9 8
Obs.
3.0 1.8 4.0 5.8
Mean -6.7 -0.1 0.3 3.0
Min 5.2 5.8 10.7 10.9
Max
Obs. 13 5 4 3

Mean 5.4 0.0 1.2 1.7
Min
Max -7.5 -3.7 -2.9 -1.0
Obs.
11.4 6.7 11.0 11.5

13 11 10 9

1.7 0.7 1.3 2.3
-4.8 -1.4 -0.9 0.7
4.8 2.8 6.4 6.4

25 18 17 9

4.9 3.2 6.9 11.2
-18.0 -5.4 -6.4 -3.6
12.9 13.0 25.0 25.5

13 5 4 3

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