Space Traffic Management - George Washington University

GWU, 24 January 2008
„Space Traffic Management“, Kai-Uwe Schrogl

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The State of Space Security
Space Policy Institute, The George Washington University

Washington, DC, 24 January 2008

Space Traffic Management

© ESPI 2008 Prof. Dr. Kai-Uwe Schrogl Page 1/14
Director
ESPI

www.espi.or.at

GWU, 24 January 2008
„Space Traffic Management“, Kai-Uwe Schrogl

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„Traffic“ in outer space?

• Background

– First ideas i.a. by Lubos Perek (IISL paper of 1982 using
the term).

– AIAA Workshops in 1999 and 2001.
– 2001-2006 IAA Study Group with 20 contributors of 8

countries.
– IISL/ECSL Symposium 2002 at the UNCOPUOS Legal

Subcommittee.

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GWU, 24 January 2008
„Space Traffic Management“, Kai-Uwe Schrogl

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„Traffic“ in outer space?

• Since the beginning of the space age: 30.000 catalogued objects in orbit;
currently 12.000 catalogued objects larger than 10 cm (out of which 1.100 in
GSO); 10 -7 objects per km 3.

• Currently only 600 active satellites (out of which 300 in GSO). Few satellites
with manoeuvering capabilities (typical velocity > 7500 m/s, 30.000 km/h).

• Speace debris as growing problem for safe operations (5 explosions per
year; 2.000 new long lasting objects through Chinese ASAT test in January
2007; so far 3 collisions).

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GWU, 24 January 2008
„Space Traffic Management“, Kai-Uwe Schrogl

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What does „Space Traffic Management“ mean?

Space Traffic Manangement (STM) means...

„...the set of technical and regulatory provisions for promoting safe access
into outer space, operations in outer space and return from outer space to
Earth free from physical or radio-frequency interference.”

(following the study by the International Academy of Astronautics, IAA Paris
2006, Contant/Lala/Schrogl)

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GWU, 24 January 2008
„Space Traffic Management“, Kai-Uwe Schrogl

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STM as a challenge for space law I

Current space law is characterized by:
• Primary focus on States as actors in outer space.
• No sufficient and effective mechanisms for non-governmental, private

actors.
• Extremely slow development of law-making in UNCOPUOS.
• Law-making competition by other international organizations (ITU,WTO).
• Soft law instead of binding international law (space debris through IADC,

Earth observation through CEOS).

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GWU, 24 January 2008
„Space Traffic Management“, Kai-Uwe Schrogl

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STM as a challenge for space law II

Space Traffic Management (STM) is characterized through:

• Conceptual approach:

- Not a „piecemeal engineering“ of existing space law but a „big
bang“ as in the law of the sea.

- Completely new approach based on functionality.
- New interacting levels and forms of regulation.
- New organizations for implementation.

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GWU, 24 January 2008
„Space Traffic Management“, Kai-Uwe Schrogl

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IAA Cosmic Study 2006 : Dimensions and phases of
space traffic

- Two dimensions of space traffic:
• Scientific-technical area
• Regulatory field

- Three phases of space traffic:
• Launch phase
• In-orbit operation phase
• Re-entry phase

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GWU, 24 January 2008
„Space Traffic Management“, Kai-Uwe Schrogl

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IAA Cosmic Study 2006: Perspectives I

• Slow and steady decline of launches since 1980 but increase of
countries with launching capacities and launch facilities.

• Due to space debris, the number of catalogued objects is steadily rising.

• The number of active satellites remains at 6-7% of the total catalogued
objects.

• Precision of current space surveillance/space situational awareness
systems has to be improved and data sharing has to be developed
further.

• Information on „space weather“ is still limited and has to improve.

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GWU, 24 January 2008
„Space Traffic Management“, Kai-Uwe Schrogl

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IAA Cosmic Study 2006: Perspectives II

• Prospects for re-usable space transportation systems still open.

• Human spaceflight has accounted for 13% of launches during the past 20
years and will continue to keep that level.

• Following the successful flight of Spaceship One, there might be – if
safety is guaranteed - a growing number of suborbital human flights.

• Technologies like tethers, stratospheric platforms or space elevators,
which might be introduced in the future, will have to be taken into account.

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GWU, 24 January 2008
„Space Traffic Management“, Kai-Uwe Schrogl

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IAA Cosmic Study 2006: Elements in the current

legal and regulatory framework

• The general principles of space law provide a basis and
rationale to establish an STM regime but are not
sufficient for a comprehensive STM regime.

• Some rules exist in international space law as well as in
international telecommunication law, which constitute
elements of an STM regime (in particular the use of the
frequency spectrum and of the GSO).

• The IADC/UNCOPUOS guideline on debris mitigation
(soft law) also contain elements for an STM regime.

• In arms control/disarmament negotiations, notification
practices (prior to launch) have been developed through
the Hague Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile
Proliferation (HCOC). Space law does only comprise
registration after the launch.

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GWU, 24 January 2008
„Space Traffic Management“, Kai-Uwe Schrogl

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IAA Cosmic Study 2006: Elements of an STM regime I

• Securing the information needs

- Definition of the necessary data
- Rules for the data provision
- Rules for the data management
- Rules for an information service on space

weather

• Notification system

- Parameters for the notification of launches and
the operation of space objects

- Rules for the notification of orbital manoeuvres
- Rules for the notification of re-entry
- Provisions for the end-of-lifetime of space

objects

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GWU, 24 January 2008
„Space Traffic Management“, Kai-Uwe Schrogl

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IAA Cosmic Study: Elements of an STM regime II

• Traffic rules

- Safety provisions for launches
- Zoning (selection of orbits)
- Right of way rules for in-orbit phases
- Priorization with regard to manoeuvres
- Specurity rules for human spaceflight
- Specific rules for GSO
- Specific rules for LEO satellite constellations
- Debris mitigation regulations
- Saftey rules for re-entry (i.a. descent corridors)
- Environmental provisions (e.g. pollution of the atmosphere/troposphere)

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GWU, 24 January 2008
„Space Traffic Management“, Kai-Uwe Schrogl

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IAA Cosmic Study: Elements of an STM regime III

• Mechanisms for implementation and control

- Harmonized national licensing mechanisms.
- Enfrocement and arbitration mechanisms (i.a. policing in outer space,
renouncement of access to information or frequencies).
- Operative oversight (UN, ICAO or private?).
- Will space traffic evolve into air traffic in another dimension (private
actors/States, „spacelines“)?

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GWU, 24 January 2008
„Space Traffic Management“, Kai-Uwe Schrogl

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Perspectives

• More and more public and private institutions work on the concept of
Space Traffic Management (AIAA Workshops in 1999 and 2001, IAA
Cosmic Study in 2006).

• One particularly thorough initiative is the International Association for the
Advancement of Space Safety (www.iaass.org) with the publication of its
comprehensive report in May 2007.

• The International Space University has conducted a team project on STM
in summer 2007.

• Dedicated session at the European CEAS Conference 2007.
• The 2006-2008 chairman of UNCOPUOS is interested in the topic and

promotes it in the Committee.
• ICAO has also shown, through the president of its Council in 2005, its

interest but has not taken any further steps yet.

The debate is on – concrete action will follow!

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