The words you are searching are inside this book. To get more targeted content, please make full-text search by clicking here.

March 2021 Housing Market Report

Discover the best professional documents and content resources in AnyFlip Document Base.
Search
Published by WE Real Estate Advisors, 2021-03-16 15:24:05

MARCH 2021 HOUSING REPORT

March 2021 Housing Market Report

MARCH 2021

“Home sales could possibly reach
8 million if we had more
inventory… Mortgage rates should
remain very low throughout 2021,
although we may have seen the
lowest already.”

Lawrence Yun

Chief Economist at NAR

Mortgage Rates Hit Three Percent

March 4, 2021

“Since reaching a low point in January, mortgage rates have risen by
more than 30 basis points, and the impact on purchase demand has
been noticeable. While purchase activity remains high, it has cooled
off over the last few weeks and is currently on par with early March,
prior to the pandemic. However, the rise in mortgage rates over the
next couple of months is likely to be more muted in comparison to
the last few weeks, and we expect a strong spring sales season.”

Sam Khater

Chief Economist at Freddie Mac

3.90

Mortgage Rates

3.70

Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate

3.50

3.30

3.10 3.02

2.90

2.70

January 2020 – Today

2.50 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 1/7 2/4 3/4
1/2
Freddie Mac

Upon exit from forbearance plan: 1.8% Repayment plans,

50.8% are paid in full short sales, deed-in-lieus

33.6% work out 7.8% 13.8% 27.9%
repayment plan No loss
15.6% are still mitigation Made their monthly
in trouble payments during their
plan
forbearance period
Modification
7.5%
25.8% Loan paid

Loan deferral 15.4% off
Past due
Cumulative forbearance exits for payments were
the period from June 1, 2020 brought current

through February 14, 2021 MBA

Percentage of Overall Forbearances

8.47% 8.39%
7.74%
7.2% 6.87%
5.83% 5.48% 5.53% 5.38% 5.22%

May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
MBA

“About 325,000 people will exit
the forbearance program over
the next six to nine months
without a plan in place. Some—
but probably not all—of those
loans will likely default.”

DS News

Housing Inventory to Start Each Year

Actual Inventory Potential Foreclosures 2021

939,582

825,945 764,869 813,924

722,187 650,404

325,000

325,404

January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021

Altos Research

“The lack of existing homes available for sale
remains the only drag on housing market
potential. Many homeowners may want to
upgrade, but do not for fear that they will be
unable to find a home to buy, preventing more
supply from reaching the market and exacerbating
the lack of inventory. As a result, everyone ‘stays
put’ and the supply of homes for sale
dwindles further.”

Odeta Kushi

Deputy Chief Economist at First American

Year-Over-Year Change in Listings

20%

10% Total Listings New Listings

0% Ea rly 5/30 6/6 6/13 6/20 6/27 7/4 7/11 7/18 7/25 8/1 8/8 8/15 8/22 8/29 9/5 9/12 9/19 9/26 10/3 10/10 10/17 10/24 10/31 11/7 11/14 11/21 11/28 12/5 12/12 12/19 12/26 1/2 1/9 1/16 1/23 1/30 2/6 2/13 2/20 2/27
Ma rc h

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

-60%

move.com

“Home sales continue to ascend in
the first month of the year, as buyers
quickly snatched up virtually every
new listing coming on the market…
Sales easily could have been even
20% higher if there had been more
inventory and more choices.”

Lawrence Yun

Chief Economist at NAR

Inventory Levels – Months’ Supply

4.4 Existing Homes

3.9

3.4
2.9 Sweet Spot

2.4

1.9

Sweeter Spot

1.4 Sept Oct Nov Dec January Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan

2020 2021

NAR

“As the COVID-19 vaccine becomes
more available and the economy
improves, he predicts that more
homeowners—realizing the equity gains
in their homes—will list their existing
homes and that could help alleviate
some housing shortages.”

NAHB reporting comments by

David Berson

Chief Economist for Nationwide Mutual

HOME
PRICE
APPRECIATION

2020 Final House Federal Housing Finance Agency
Appreciation House Price Index
Numbers
+10.8%

The CoreLogic U.S. The S&P Case-Shiller U.S.
National Home Price Index National Home Price Index

+9.2% +10.4%

“A typical homeowner in
2020, just by being a
homeowner, they would
have accumulated around
$24,000 in housing wealth.”

Lawrence Yun

Chief Economist at NAR

“Nationally, house-buying
power continues to exceed
the median sale price and
that implies housing is not
overvalued today.”

Mark Fleming

Chief Economist at First American

Home Price Forecasts 2021

10.3%

6.6% 5.9% Average of all forecasts

6% 5.7% 5.3%

4.2%
3.3%

MBA NAR Zelman realtor.com Freddie Mac Fannie Mae CoreLogic

Annual Home Price Appreciation

12.5% 9.2%
11.4%
6.4%
8.5% 8.7% 4.8% 4.7%

Average Annual Appreciation Average Annual Appreciation

10.3% 6.3%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2017 2018 2019 2020

CoreLogic, Black Knight

YOY Change in Price – 2020 Q4

FHFA

YOY Change in Price – 2005 Q4

FHFA

“Consumers
reported a
significantly more
positive view of
home-selling
conditions”

Fannie Mae

Now Available:
Spring 2021 Seller Guide

Now Available:
Spring 2021 Buyer Guide

Resources

Slide Slide Title Link
2 Yun Quote - Rates https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/existing-home-sales-in-2020-were-highest-since-in-over-a-
3 Khater Quote decade.html
4 Mortgage Rates
5 Forbearance Exits https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/node/22241/pdf
6 Overall Forbearances
7 DS News Quote http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html
8 Inventory with Foreclosures
9 Kushi Quote https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/february/share-of-mortgage-loans-in-forbearance-
10 YOY Change in Listings declines-to-522-percent
11 Yun Quote – Listings
https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/newsroom
12 Months’ Supply
https://dsnews.com/daily-dose/02-08-2021/foreclosures-2021-what-to-expect-in-the-months-
13 Berson Quote ahead

https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen/status/1366520741458563073

https://blog.firstam.com/economics/housing-market-potential-poised-to-grow-in-2021
https://www.mykcm.com/2021/02/24/how-much-leverage-do-todays-house-sellers-have/

https://www.realtor.com/research/tag/housing-inventory/

https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/ehs-01-2021-supplemental-data-2021-
02-19.pdf

https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/ehs-08-2020-supplemental-data-2020-
09-22.pdf

https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2021/02/10/new-home-buying-rush-likely-to-continue-in-
2021

Resources

Slide Slide Title Link
15 2020 Appreciation https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/Pages/US-House-Price-Index-Report-2020-Q4.aspx
16 Yun Quote – Equity https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx
17 Fleming Quote https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20210223-
1321360/1321360_cshomeprice-release-0223.pdf
18 Home Price Forecasts 2021
https://www.tv20detroit.com/news/national/soaring-housing-prices-during-pandemic-may-point-to-
19 Annual Price Appreciation split-economic-recovery
20. 21 Change in Price Maps
22 Fannie Mae Quote https://blog.firstam.com/economics/house-prices-are-hot-but-is-housing-overvalued

https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/forecasts-and-
commentary
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
https://www.zelmanassociates.com/ (subscription needed)
https://www.realtor.com/research/2021-national-housing-forecast/
http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20210114_quarterly_economic_forecast.page
https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/forecast
https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx

https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx
https://www.blackknightinc.com/black-knights-december-2019-mortgage-monitor-2/

https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Tools/Pages/House-Price-Index-(HPI).aspx
https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/ReportDocuments/2005Q4_HPI_N508.pdf

https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveys/national-housing-survey
https://www.fanniemae.com/media/38211/display



Resources

Slide Slide Title Link
31, 51, 61 Confidence Index
32-34, 42, 52- https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/realtors-confidence-
56 index
35-38
Existing Home Sales https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
39
40,41 New Home Sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
46-48 http://www.census.gov/newhomesales
49 http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
52-58
Total Home Sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales

Pending Home Sales https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/pending-home-
sales

Case Shiller https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-20-
city-composite-home-price-nsa-index/#news-research

CoreLogic Forecasted YOY % https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx
Change in Price

Inventory https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

Resources

Slide Slide Title Link
60
63, 64, Showing Activity https://www.showingtime.com/blog/january-2021-showing-index-results/
66, 67
Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
65 http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html

69, 70 Mortgage Rate Projections http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/
http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/research-insights/forecast.html
71-75 https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-
economics/forecasts-and-commentary
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics

Mortgage Credit Availability https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/newsroom
https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/single-
family-research/mortgage-credit-availability-index

Days To Close, FICO Scores, http://www.elliemae.com/resources/origination-insight-reports
DTI



Average Days on the Market

NAR

EXISTING

Home Sales

Since January 2014

Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021
NAR

EXISTING Home Sales

Y-O-Y by region

25.1%

24.3%

23.7%

22.7%

21.3%

U.S. Northeast Midwest South West

NAR

Existing Home Sales

in thousands

January February March April May June July August September October November December

2019 2020 2021

NAR

New Home Sales in thousands

January February March April May June July August September October November December

2019 2020 2021 Census

New Home Sales

annualized in thousands

jun-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan 2020 Jan 2021

Census

New Home Sales

% of distribution by price range

32%
28%

15% 16%

4% 5%

2% $150-$199K $200-299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750K

Under $150K Census

New Homes Selling Fast
(median months from completion to sold)

4.5 4.5

4.3 4.2
4.2

3.9 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.0
3.8 3.5 3.5 3.7
3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
3.7 3.7 3.3 2.9
3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
3.3 3.3 3.1
3.1 3.0 3.0
2.9 2.9

2.7

Jan-18 Feb Mar Ap r May Jun Jul Au g Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-19 Feb Mar Ap r May Jun Jul Au g sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Ap r May Jun Jul Au g Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-21

Census

Total Home Sales in thousands

682
641 640 651

586 597
552

475

437 398 426 436
376

January February March April May June July August September October November December

2020 2021

Census & NAR

PENDING Home Sales

since 2014

100 = Historically Healthy Level

J an uary Jan uary Jan uary Jan uary Jan uary Jan uary Jan uary NAR Jan uary
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Pending Home Sales Year-Over-Year By Region

17.1%

13.0%

11.5%

9.6% 8.6%

U.S Northeast Midwest South West

NAR

35% Percentage of
Distressed Property Sales

Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales –
represented less than 1% of sales in January

January 2012 - Today 4% 1%

Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
20N2A1R

Home Prices

EXISTING Home Prices 16.1%

Y-O-Y by region

15.8%

14.7% 14.6%

14.1%

U.S. Northeast Midwest South West

NAR

% Change in Sales
from last year by Price Range

76.7%

66.2%

53.0%

27.0%

-2.0%

-28.0% $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+
-2.0% 27.0% 53.0% 66.2% 76.7%
$0-100K
% -28.0% NAR

Case Shiller Year-Over-Year

PRICE

CHANGES

Jun 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020

S&P Case Shiller

Case ShillerJan 2014
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGESFeb
20City CompositeMar
S&P Case ShillerAp r
May
Jun
Jul
Au g
Sept
Oc t
Nov
Dec

Jan 2015
Feb
Mar
Ap r
May
Jun
Jul
Au g
Sept
Oc t
Nov
Dec

Jan 2016
Feb
Mar
Ap r
May
Jun
Jul
Au g
Sept
Oc t
Nov
Dec

Jan 2017
Feb
Mar
Ap r
May
Jun
Jul
Au g
Sept
Oc t
Nov
Dec

Jan 2018
Feb
Mar
Ap r
May
Jun
Jul
Au g
Sept
Oc t
Nov
Dec

Jan 2019
Feb
Mar
Ap r
May
Jun
Jul
Au g
Sept
Oc t
Nov
Dec

Jan 2020
Feb
Mar
Ap r
May
Jun
Jul
Ago
Sept
Oc t
Nov
Dec

Case Shiller 10.1%
9.2%
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES
20 City Composite 8.0%

6.6%

5.3%
3.5% 3.9% 4.0% 3.6% 3.5% 4.1%
3.1%

Jan 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

S&P Case Shiller

Year-Over-Year % Change in Price

10.0%

Current 3.3%

Forecast

CoreLogic

HOUSING

INVENTORY


Click to View FlipBook Version