MARCH 2021
“Home sales could possibly reach
8 million if we had more
inventory… Mortgage rates should
remain very low throughout 2021,
although we may have seen the
lowest already.”
Lawrence Yun
Chief Economist at NAR
Mortgage Rates Hit Three Percent
March 4, 2021
“Since reaching a low point in January, mortgage rates have risen by
more than 30 basis points, and the impact on purchase demand has
been noticeable. While purchase activity remains high, it has cooled
off over the last few weeks and is currently on par with early March,
prior to the pandemic. However, the rise in mortgage rates over the
next couple of months is likely to be more muted in comparison to
the last few weeks, and we expect a strong spring sales season.”
Sam Khater
Chief Economist at Freddie Mac
3.90
Mortgage Rates
3.70
Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate
3.50
3.30
3.10 3.02
2.90
2.70
January 2020 – Today
2.50 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 1/7 2/4 3/4
1/2
Freddie Mac
Upon exit from forbearance plan: 1.8% Repayment plans,
50.8% are paid in full short sales, deed-in-lieus
33.6% work out 7.8% 13.8% 27.9%
repayment plan No loss
15.6% are still mitigation Made their monthly
in trouble payments during their
plan
forbearance period
Modification
7.5%
25.8% Loan paid
Loan deferral 15.4% off
Past due
Cumulative forbearance exits for payments were
the period from June 1, 2020 brought current
through February 14, 2021 MBA
Percentage of Overall Forbearances
8.47% 8.39%
7.74%
7.2% 6.87%
5.83% 5.48% 5.53% 5.38% 5.22%
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
MBA
“About 325,000 people will exit
the forbearance program over
the next six to nine months
without a plan in place. Some—
but probably not all—of those
loans will likely default.”
DS News
Housing Inventory to Start Each Year
Actual Inventory Potential Foreclosures 2021
939,582
825,945 764,869 813,924
722,187 650,404
325,000
325,404
January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021
Altos Research
“The lack of existing homes available for sale
remains the only drag on housing market
potential. Many homeowners may want to
upgrade, but do not for fear that they will be
unable to find a home to buy, preventing more
supply from reaching the market and exacerbating
the lack of inventory. As a result, everyone ‘stays
put’ and the supply of homes for sale
dwindles further.”
Odeta Kushi
Deputy Chief Economist at First American
Year-Over-Year Change in Listings
20%
10% Total Listings New Listings
0% Ea rly 5/30 6/6 6/13 6/20 6/27 7/4 7/11 7/18 7/25 8/1 8/8 8/15 8/22 8/29 9/5 9/12 9/19 9/26 10/3 10/10 10/17 10/24 10/31 11/7 11/14 11/21 11/28 12/5 12/12 12/19 12/26 1/2 1/9 1/16 1/23 1/30 2/6 2/13 2/20 2/27
Ma rc h
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
move.com
“Home sales continue to ascend in
the first month of the year, as buyers
quickly snatched up virtually every
new listing coming on the market…
Sales easily could have been even
20% higher if there had been more
inventory and more choices.”
Lawrence Yun
Chief Economist at NAR
Inventory Levels – Months’ Supply
4.4 Existing Homes
3.9
3.4
2.9 Sweet Spot
2.4
1.9
Sweeter Spot
1.4 Sept Oct Nov Dec January Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
2020 2021
NAR
“As the COVID-19 vaccine becomes
more available and the economy
improves, he predicts that more
homeowners—realizing the equity gains
in their homes—will list their existing
homes and that could help alleviate
some housing shortages.”
NAHB reporting comments by
David Berson
Chief Economist for Nationwide Mutual
HOME
PRICE
APPRECIATION
2020 Final House Federal Housing Finance Agency
Appreciation House Price Index
Numbers
+10.8%
The CoreLogic U.S. The S&P Case-Shiller U.S.
National Home Price Index National Home Price Index
+9.2% +10.4%
“A typical homeowner in
2020, just by being a
homeowner, they would
have accumulated around
$24,000 in housing wealth.”
Lawrence Yun
Chief Economist at NAR
“Nationally, house-buying
power continues to exceed
the median sale price and
that implies housing is not
overvalued today.”
Mark Fleming
Chief Economist at First American
Home Price Forecasts 2021
10.3%
6.6% 5.9% Average of all forecasts
6% 5.7% 5.3%
4.2%
3.3%
MBA NAR Zelman realtor.com Freddie Mac Fannie Mae CoreLogic
Annual Home Price Appreciation
12.5% 9.2%
11.4%
6.4%
8.5% 8.7% 4.8% 4.7%
Average Annual Appreciation Average Annual Appreciation
10.3% 6.3%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2017 2018 2019 2020
CoreLogic, Black Knight
YOY Change in Price – 2020 Q4
FHFA
YOY Change in Price – 2005 Q4
FHFA
“Consumers
reported a
significantly more
positive view of
home-selling
conditions”
Fannie Mae
Now Available:
Spring 2021 Seller Guide
Now Available:
Spring 2021 Buyer Guide
Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
2 Yun Quote - Rates https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/existing-home-sales-in-2020-were-highest-since-in-over-a-
3 Khater Quote decade.html
4 Mortgage Rates
5 Forbearance Exits https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/node/22241/pdf
6 Overall Forbearances
7 DS News Quote http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html
8 Inventory with Foreclosures
9 Kushi Quote https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/february/share-of-mortgage-loans-in-forbearance-
10 YOY Change in Listings declines-to-522-percent
11 Yun Quote – Listings
https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/newsroom
12 Months’ Supply
https://dsnews.com/daily-dose/02-08-2021/foreclosures-2021-what-to-expect-in-the-months-
13 Berson Quote ahead
https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen/status/1366520741458563073
https://blog.firstam.com/economics/housing-market-potential-poised-to-grow-in-2021
https://www.mykcm.com/2021/02/24/how-much-leverage-do-todays-house-sellers-have/
https://www.realtor.com/research/tag/housing-inventory/
https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/ehs-01-2021-supplemental-data-2021-
02-19.pdf
https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/ehs-08-2020-supplemental-data-2020-
09-22.pdf
https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2021/02/10/new-home-buying-rush-likely-to-continue-in-
2021
Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
15 2020 Appreciation https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/Pages/US-House-Price-Index-Report-2020-Q4.aspx
16 Yun Quote – Equity https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx
17 Fleming Quote https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20210223-
1321360/1321360_cshomeprice-release-0223.pdf
18 Home Price Forecasts 2021
https://www.tv20detroit.com/news/national/soaring-housing-prices-during-pandemic-may-point-to-
19 Annual Price Appreciation split-economic-recovery
20. 21 Change in Price Maps
22 Fannie Mae Quote https://blog.firstam.com/economics/house-prices-are-hot-but-is-housing-overvalued
https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/forecasts-and-
commentary
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
https://www.zelmanassociates.com/ (subscription needed)
https://www.realtor.com/research/2021-national-housing-forecast/
http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20210114_quarterly_economic_forecast.page
https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/forecast
https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx
https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx
https://www.blackknightinc.com/black-knights-december-2019-mortgage-monitor-2/
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Tools/Pages/House-Price-Index-(HPI).aspx
https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/ReportDocuments/2005Q4_HPI_N508.pdf
https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveys/national-housing-survey
https://www.fanniemae.com/media/38211/display
Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
31, 51, 61 Confidence Index
32-34, 42, 52- https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/realtors-confidence-
56 index
35-38
Existing Home Sales https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
39
40,41 New Home Sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
46-48 http://www.census.gov/newhomesales
49 http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
52-58
Total Home Sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
Pending Home Sales https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/pending-home-
sales
Case Shiller https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-20-
city-composite-home-price-nsa-index/#news-research
CoreLogic Forecasted YOY % https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx
Change in Price
Inventory https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
60
63, 64, Showing Activity https://www.showingtime.com/blog/january-2021-showing-index-results/
66, 67
Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
65 http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html
69, 70 Mortgage Rate Projections http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/
http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/research-insights/forecast.html
71-75 https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-
economics/forecasts-and-commentary
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
Mortgage Credit Availability https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/newsroom
https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/single-
family-research/mortgage-credit-availability-index
Days To Close, FICO Scores, http://www.elliemae.com/resources/origination-insight-reports
DTI
Average Days on the Market
NAR
EXISTING
Home Sales
Since January 2014
Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021
NAR
EXISTING Home Sales
Y-O-Y by region
25.1%
24.3%
23.7%
22.7%
21.3%
U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
NAR
Existing Home Sales
in thousands
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2019 2020 2021
NAR
New Home Sales in thousands
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2019 2020 2021 Census
New Home Sales
annualized in thousands
jun-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan 2020 Jan 2021
Census
New Home Sales
% of distribution by price range
32%
28%
15% 16%
4% 5%
2% $150-$199K $200-299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750K
Under $150K Census
New Homes Selling Fast
(median months from completion to sold)
4.5 4.5
4.3 4.2
4.2
3.9 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.0
3.8 3.5 3.5 3.7
3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
3.7 3.7 3.3 2.9
3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
3.3 3.3 3.1
3.1 3.0 3.0
2.9 2.9
2.7
Jan-18 Feb Mar Ap r May Jun Jul Au g Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-19 Feb Mar Ap r May Jun Jul Au g sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Ap r May Jun Jul Au g Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-21
Census
Total Home Sales in thousands
682
641 640 651
586 597
552
475
437 398 426 436
376
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2020 2021
Census & NAR
PENDING Home Sales
since 2014
100 = Historically Healthy Level
J an uary Jan uary Jan uary Jan uary Jan uary Jan uary Jan uary NAR Jan uary
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Pending Home Sales Year-Over-Year By Region
17.1%
13.0%
11.5%
9.6% 8.6%
U.S Northeast Midwest South West
NAR
35% Percentage of
Distressed Property Sales
Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales –
represented less than 1% of sales in January
January 2012 - Today 4% 1%
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
20N2A1R
Home Prices
EXISTING Home Prices 16.1%
Y-O-Y by region
15.8%
14.7% 14.6%
14.1%
U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
NAR
% Change in Sales
from last year by Price Range
76.7%
66.2%
53.0%
27.0%
-2.0%
-28.0% $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+
-2.0% 27.0% 53.0% 66.2% 76.7%
$0-100K
% -28.0% NAR
Case Shiller Year-Over-Year
PRICE
CHANGES
Jun 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020
S&P Case Shiller
Case ShillerJan 2014
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGESFeb
20City CompositeMar
S&P Case ShillerAp r
May
Jun
Jul
Au g
Sept
Oc t
Nov
Dec
Jan 2015
Feb
Mar
Ap r
May
Jun
Jul
Au g
Sept
Oc t
Nov
Dec
Jan 2016
Feb
Mar
Ap r
May
Jun
Jul
Au g
Sept
Oc t
Nov
Dec
Jan 2017
Feb
Mar
Ap r
May
Jun
Jul
Au g
Sept
Oc t
Nov
Dec
Jan 2018
Feb
Mar
Ap r
May
Jun
Jul
Au g
Sept
Oc t
Nov
Dec
Jan 2019
Feb
Mar
Ap r
May
Jun
Jul
Au g
Sept
Oc t
Nov
Dec
Jan 2020
Feb
Mar
Ap r
May
Jun
Jul
Ago
Sept
Oc t
Nov
Dec
Case Shiller 10.1%
9.2%
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES
20 City Composite 8.0%
6.6%
5.3%
3.5% 3.9% 4.0% 3.6% 3.5% 4.1%
3.1%
Jan 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
S&P Case Shiller
Year-Over-Year % Change in Price
10.0%
Current 3.3%
Forecast
CoreLogic
HOUSING
INVENTORY