Jan 2022 National Housing Report

January 2022

It is possible that rising mortgage rates will
slow the housing market . . . or the Fed
might raise rates sooner than expected due
to the recent pickup in inflation, . . . but I
believe one thing is certain: inventory
will tell the tale!”

- Bill McBride, Founder, Calculated Risk

The Bad News:
Listings Are at Record Lows

Housing Inventory Lower than Last Year

December 2021 Year-Over-Year Compared to December 2020

Source: realtor.com

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

Since 2019

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.6

4.5 4.3 4.3
4.2 4.2

4.0 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.9
3.7
3.6

3.5 3.3

3.1 3.1 3.1
3.0 3.0
3.0

2.7 2.6 2.6

2.5 2.5 2.5
2.5 2.4 2.4
2.3 2.3

2.1 2.1
2.0
2.0 1.9 1.9

1.5
J an-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
Source: NAR

Buyer Activity

Showings Still Strong,
Greater than Last November

ShowingTime Monthly Index

284 281

236 241 236

200 199 205
191 185 182 190 178 176 184 176
166
160
153 156 156

128

85

J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASON

2020 2021

Source: ShowingTime

Showings Crush Pre-Pandemic Numbers

Showing Index over the Last 5 Novembers

200 175.7
180
160 156.3
140
98.2 107.2
120 103.9
2018 2019 2020 2021
100
80 Source: ShowingTime
60
40
20
0

2017

Showings traditionally lag during the holiday
season, but the data we’re seeing tells us that
buyer demand remains strong. The fact that
every region showed a year-over-year
increase indicates that buyers are
undeterred . . . It speaks to their desire to
keep searching for their next home.

- Michael Lane, VP & General Manager, ShowingTime

Pending Sales Higher than
Pre-Pandemic Numbers

Pending Home Sales over the Last 5 Novembers

140 101 125.8 122.4
108
120 109.6 2021

100 Source: NAR

80

60

40

20

0 2018 2019 2020

2017

Home Equity

The lack of insight around home equity
presents an opportunity for real estate
professionals, who are always looking for
touch points with past clients.

- 2021 REALTORS’ Conference & Expo

CoreLogic’s Q3 Homeowner Equity Report

$57K 31.1%

Average home equity gain Year-Over-Year percentage
for U.S. homeowners with increase in equity for U.S.
homeowners with mortgages
mortgages

$3.2T “This summer, home price
growth reached the highest
Year-Over-Year total level in more than 45 years,
increase in equity for U.S.
homeowners with mortgages pushing equity gains to
another record high.”

Source: CoreLogic

Homeowner Equity Growth Still Surging

Q3 2021 Year-Over-Year from Q3 2020

Source: CoreLogic

Not only have equity gains helped
homeowners more seamlessly transition
out of forbearance and avoid a distressed
sale, but they’ve also enabled many to
continue building their wealth.

- Frank Martell, President & CEO, CoreLogic

U.S. households own $36.8 trillion in
owner-occupied real estate, $11.5T in debt,
and the remaining $25T in equity. . . .
In inflated-adjusted terms, homeowners
had an average of $294k in equity in Q3
2021- a historic high.

- Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist, First American

What To Expect
in the 2022

Housing Market

Mortgage Rate Projections

December 2021

Quarter Freddie Fannie MBA Average
Mac Mae NAR of All
3.3
2022 1Q 3.4 3.2 3.5 Four
2022 2Q 3.5 3.3 3.7
2022 3Q 3.6 3.3 4.0 3.3 3.30%
2022 4Q 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.45%
3.6 3.55%
3.7 3.70%

Forbearances Finally Fall Below 1 Million

Monthly Number of Loans in Active Forbearance (in Millions)

4.76
4.6 4.58

4
3.8
3.62

2.86 2.76 2.83 2.72

2.69

2.54

2.33

2.12 2.05

1.82
1.71
1.57

1.22
0.89

May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2020

Source: Black Knight

We may see a little bit of an uptick in
foreclosure rates in 2022. Just an uptick
though, from an extraordinarily low level,
we’re not expecting to see a big increase …
We expect delinquency rates overall on
home mortgages to actually continue to
remain quite, quite low.

- Maiclaire Bolton-Smith, Senior Leader of Research, CoreLogic

Has Home Price Acceleration Peaked?

Percent Year-Over-Year Monthly Price Increases 2021

20
19
18
17
16
15
14

13 FHFA
12 CoreLogic
11 S&P Case Shiller

10

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct November

Source: CoreLogic, FHFA, SP Case Shiller

Home Price Forecasts for 2022

7.4% 7%

5.2% 6%
5.1% 5.1%

3% 2.8%

Average of All Fannie Mae Freddie Mac CoreLogic MBA HPES Zelman NAR
7 Forecasts

So overall I do think that 2022 will be
another strong year for housing. All be it
a little bit higher mortgage rates and we
do think home sales will continue to
rise and actually reach a 16 year high
in 2022.

- Maiclaire Bolton-Smith, Senior Leader of Research, CoreLogic

Resources

Slide(s) Description Link(s)
2
4 McBride Quote Subscriber’s Newsletter -
5 https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

7-9 Inventory Map https://www.realtor.com/research/data/
10
12 Inventory Graph https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-
13-15 continue-upward-increasing-1-9-in-november

Showings Graphs, https://www.showingtime.com/blog/november-2021-
Lane Quote showing-index-results

Pending Sales Graph https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-
statistics/pending-home-sales

REALTORS’ Conference & https://magazine.realtor/live/article/2021/11/how-to-build-

Expo Quote client-for-life-relationships

CoreLogic Equity Report, https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/homeowner-equity-
Map, & Martell Quote insights/

Resources

Slide(s) Description Link(s)
16
Kushi Quote https://twitter.com/odetakushi/status/147112504568671846
18 Mortgage Rate Projections 6

19 http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20211015_qu
20, 23 arterly_economic_forecast.page?
https://www.fanniemae.com/media/42011/display
https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-
resources/research-and-economics/forecasts-and-
commentary
https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecast-
Q4-2021-us-economic-outlook-10-28-2021.pdf

Forbearances Graph https://www.blackknightinc.com/blog-posts/

Bolton-Smith Quote https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/whats-in-store-for-
2022/

Resources

Slide(s) Description Link(s)
21 Price Acceleration Graph
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-price-
22 Price Forecasts Graph insights/
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/a
nnouncements/20211228-1448566/1448566_cshomeprice-
release-1228.pdf
https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/Pages/US-House-
Price-Index-December-2021.aspx

https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-
resources/research-and-economics/forecasts-and-
commentary
https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecast-
Q4-2021-us-economic-outlook-10-28-2021.pdf
https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/forecast
http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/index.page
https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations
https://twitter.com/CoreLogicInc/status/1466523328353640
460

Updates

Resources

Slide(s) Description Link(s)

31, 51, 61 Confidence Index https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-
reports/realtors-confidence-index
32-34, 42,
44, 45, Existing Home Sales https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales

52-56 http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
http://www.census.gov/newhomesales
35-38 New Home Sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
39 Total Home Sales https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-
statistics/pending-home-sales
40, 41 Pending Home Sales https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-
corelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsa-
46-48 Case Shiller index/#news-research
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-price-
49 CoreLogic Price Forecast insights/
52-58 Inventory https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

Resources

Slide(s) Description Link(s)
60
63, 64, Showing Activity https://www.showingtime.com/blog/november-2021-
66, 67 showing-index-results/

65 Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html
http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/
69, 70
Mortgage Rate Projections http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/
71-75 http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/research-
Mortgage Credit insights/forecast.html
Availability https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-
Days To Close, FICO resources/research-and-economics/forecasts-and-
Scores, DTI commentary
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics

https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-
resources/newsroom
https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-
resources/research-and-economics/single-family-
research/mortgage-credit-availability-index

https://www.icemortgagetechnology.com/mortgage-
data/origination-insight-reports

Home Sales

Average Days on the Market

November 2021

Source: NAR

Existing Home Sales

Since January 2014

6, 80 0,0 00

6, 30 0,0 00

5, 80 0,0 00

5, 30 0,0 00

4, 80 0,0 00

4, 30 0,0 00

3, 80 0,0 00 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Jan
2014 Source: NAR

Existing Home Sales

Year-Over-Year, by Region

4.3% 4.8%
South
2.0% Northeast Midwest 1.0%
U.S. West

-8.7%

Source: NAR

Existing Home Sales

In Thousands

2019 2020 2021
600

500

400

300

200

100

0 January February March April May June July August September October November December

Source: NAR

New Home Sales

In Thousands

90 2019 2020 2021

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0 January February March April May June July August September October November December

Source: Census

New Home Sales

Annualized in Thousands

1060

960

860

760

660

560

460

360 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21
jun-14
Source: Census

New Home Sales

Percent of Distribution by Price Range

* Less Than 500 Units or Less Than 0.5 Percent

31%

22% 22%

14%

11%

* * $200-299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750K
Source: Census
Unde0r%$150K $150-$199K

New Homes Selling Fast

Median Months from Completion to Sold

5.1
4.9

4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
4.1
4.3 4.2
4.2 3.6
3.2
3.9 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.0
3.8 3.5 3.5 3.7 2.7
3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 2.5
3.7 3.7 3.3 3.6
3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
3.3 3.3 3.1 3.2
3.1
2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0

2.7

Jan-…
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-…
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-…
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-…
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov

Source: Census

Total Home Sales

In Thousands

2020 2021

676 682 646 641 631 640 651

567 587 593 586 604 601
577 554 566

475

443 436 425 436

398
376

January February March April May June July August September October November December

Source: Census

Pending Home Sales

140 100 = Historically Healthy Level
130
120 J anuary J anuary J anuary J anuary J anuary J anuary J anuary J anuary J anuary
110 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
100
Source: NAR
90
80
70
60

J anuary
2012

Pending Home Sales

Year-Over-Year by Region

U.S. Northeast 0.2% South West

-2.7% Middweesstt -1.3% -4.6%

100 = Historically Healthy Level

-8.5%

Source: NAR

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

Distressed Sales (Foreclosures and Short Sales) Represented Less Than
1% of Sales in November.

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5% 4%

0% ene ene ene ene ene ene ene ene ene
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
ene
2012

Source: NAR

Home Prices

Sales Price of Existing Homes

Year-Over-Year, by Region

18.4%

13.9%

9.0% 8.4%

4.7% West

U.S. Northeast Midwest South Source: NAR

% Change in Sales

Year-Over-Year, by Price Range

50.7%

37.1%

30.8%

6.9%

-14.8% -18.5%

$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+
% -14.8% -18.5% 6.9% 30.8% 37.1% 50.7%

Source: NAR

Change in Home Prices

Year-Over-Year

20%

18%

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0% Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Jun
2012

Source: S&P Case-Shiller

Jan 2014 Change in Home Prices
Feb
Mar Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite
Apr
May 20%
J un 18%
J ul 16%
Aug 14%
Sept 12%
Oct 10%
N ov
D ec 8%
6%
Jan 2015 4%
Feb 2%
Mar 0%
Apr
Source: S&P Case-Shiller May
J un
J ul
Aug
Sept
Oct
N ov
D ec

Jan 2016
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
J un
J ul
Aug
Sept
Oct
N ov
D ec

Jan 2017
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
J un
J ul
Aug
Sept
Oct
N ov
D ec

Jan 2018
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
J un
J ul
Aug
Sept
Oct
N ov
D ec

Jan 2019
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
J un
J ul
Aug
Sept
Oct
N ov
D ec

Jan 2020
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
J un
J ul
Aug
Sept
Oct
N ov
D ec

Jan 2021
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
J une
J uly
Aug
Sept
Oct

Change in Home Prices

Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite

19.8% 19.8% 19.7% 19.1%

18.7%

16.6%

14.8%

13.3%

12.0%

11.2%

10.2%

9.2%

Nov Dec Jan 2021 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct

Source: S&P Case-Shiller

Year-Over-Year % Change in Price

18.1%

2.8%

Current Forecast

Source: CoreLogic

Housing Inventory