251 Part II. Main political forces of France on the brink of elections-2022 Chapter 7. The image of E. Macron: characteristic features and their evolution. Georgy Moiseev, Ph. D (History), Associate Professor, Department for modern and contemporary history, History faculty of Lomonosov Moscow State University. Address: 27/4 Lomonosovskiy av., Moscow, Russia, 119192 ([email protected]). The chapter analyzes the process of forming the image of E. Macron in the perception of the French. The characteristic features of the personality and behavior of the head of state, which caused a diametrically opposite reaction among the inhabitants of the country, are considered. Particular attention is paid to the ambivalent attitude towards Macron as a reforming president and the formation on this basis of the core of his potential electorate, as well as a significant number of opponents of the current policy. Chapter 8. Economic aspects in the political agenda of M. Le Pen. Marina V. Klinova, Doctor of Science (Economics), Lead Researcher, Center for European Studies, Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. Address: 23, Profsoyuznaya st., Moscow, Russia, 117997 ([email protected]). The evolution of the economic part of M. Le Pen's program since 2017, after her defeat in the second round of the presidential elections, and the modern aspects of the economic agenda, with which the leader of the party “National Rally” goes to the elections in 2022 are analyzed. Economic part of the party's program attracts usually much smaller attention of the public, the media, analysts than the traditional favourite populist subject of politics – the problems of migration, internal security, national sovereignty and identity. Changes in the economic component of the course towards “de-diabolisation” of the “National Rally” are shown; it is noted that, often identifying problems, neither their solution nor sources of financing are proposed. Chapter 9. The failures of the National Rally in regional elections: electoral accident or trend? Alexandra Zhidkova, Ph. D (History), Museum educator, State Historical Museum of Russia. Address: 1, Red Square, Moscow, Russia, 109012 ([email protected]). The chapter analyses the reasons for the electoral failure of the National Rally in the regional elections in 2021. The author pays attention to the external reasons, including the political isolation of the NR, the unprecedented high level of absenteeism and the evolution of the protest electorate, as well as to the factors associated with the erosion of the party's ideological and political views. The problem of the NR’s identity relates to the search of a balance between the strategy of dedemonization and the desire to preserve the historical foundations of the far right and the traditional voters of the party. The chapter examines the changes in the NR’s programme, personnel changes within the party and the evolution of its electorate before national elections of 2022. Chapter 10. “The Republicans” before presidential campaign-2022: the restoration of a hope. Arina Preobrazhenskaya, Ph. D (Politics), Senior Research Associate, Center for Comparative Socio-Economic and Political Studies, Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. Address: 23, Profsoyuznaya st., Moscow, Russia, 117997 ([email protected]). The chapter deals with the problems of the largest right party of France – “The Republicans”. After the large-scale defeats in 2017, the party was experiencing a deep crisis, ideological and strategic differences of various groups came to the surface. Despite the success of the party in local elections, due to the preserved electoral base on the ground, the inability to offer a real alternative to the policy of the authorities, the absence of a universally recognized charismatic leader and conflicts between various factions and right-wing politicians for a long time introduced a significant dose of uncertainty into the development of a unified strategic line of the party. Having analyzed the reasons for the victory in the primaries and the prospects for the presidential
252 elections of the candidate from “The Republicans” Valerie Pecresse, the author comes to the conclusion that her main task is to overcome the narrowness of the electoral base of the right. Chapter 11. The party “France Arise” in the political life of the Fifth republic. Natalya Naumova, Ph. D (History), Associate Professor of the Department for modern and contemporary history, History faculty of Lomonosov Moscow State University. Address: 27/4 Lomonosovskiy av., Moscow, Russia, 119192 ([email protected]). The chapter shows the evolution of the political activity of “France Arise” (DLF) in the 2010s2020s years and its attempt to become the center of the unification of nationalists and sovereignists on the right flank of the party-political scene of France. An important role in the development of the political strategy and electoral tactics of the DLF was played by its founder and permanent leader N. Dupont-Aignan, a supporter of the ideas of “historical Gaullism”, who sought to defend the political identity of his movement against the background of the intensification of the efforts of such influential participants in French political life as “The Republicans” and persistently tried to integrate into the system of the Fifth Republic of the National Rally of M. Le Pen. Chapter 12. The Centrists under E. Macron’s presidency. Dmitry Shmelev, Doctor of Sciences (History), Professor, Department of Archeology and General History, Kazan Federal University. Address: 18 Kremlyovskaya st., Kazan, Russia, 420008 ([email protected]). The chapter examines the evolution of centrist parties – MoDem, UDI, “Centrists” during the presidency of E. Macron. Particular attention is paid to the problems of party transformation and political strategy of the centrists, their support or criticism of government reforms. The study gives grounds to conclude that, despite the marginal position on the French political scene, the centrist parties kept their structures and mechanisms of influence of, local implantation, basic ideological positions and requirements. Moreover, traditional centrism itself currently gravitates towards the “new center” represented by the propresidential party LREM. It is proved by the participation of MoDem in the government coalition and the strategy of UDI, which headed for rapprochement with Macron's party. Chapter 13. The French left before electoral battles-2022. Ruslan Kostiuk, Doctor of Sciences (History), Professor of the Department of Theory and History of International Relations, Faculty of International Relations, St Petersburg University (SPBU). Address: 1/3, Smolnogo st., St Petersburg, Russia, 191060 ([email protected]). The chapter is devoted to the analysis of the left movement in France on the eve of the 2022 Presidential and Legislative elections. The author gives the characteristic to all the main directions of the French left, except for the “Greens”. The author primarily focuses on the Socialist Party and the “Unsubmissive France”. To resume the analysis the author shows that at the end of 2021 the conditions allowing the leftist forces to unite and to put forward a united front in elections are absent. Chapter 14. The “Greens” under the presidency of E. Macron: between government and opposition. Anna Kaplya, Ph. D (History), Teacher of the Department of foreign languages, History faculty of Lomonosov Moscow State University. Address: 27/4 Lomonosovskiy av., Moscow, Russia, 119192 ([email protected]). The chapter devotes to the activities of the French party “Europe. Ecology – The Greens” on the eve and during the presidency of E. Macron from 2017 to 2021. The work touches on the problems the ecologists have faced in this period, identifying the causes of the Greens' crisis and their electoral failures. The Greens' perception of President Macron and their assessment of his activity and his cooperation with representatives of the French environmental movement are examined in detail. The reasons for the rise of the «green wave» and the party's transition to a new stage in its development are explored.
253 Chapter 15. The “Greens” in municipal and regional elections: paradoxes, problems, prospects. Galina Kaninskaya, Doctor of Sciences (History), Professor, Head of Department for World History, Demidov Yaroslavl State University. Address: 14, Sovetskaya st., Yaroslavl, Russia, 150003 ([email protected]). The chapter considers the problems that “Europe. Ecology – Greens” party confront in the municipal and regional elections in 2020 and 2021 after successfully running in the elections to the European Parliament in 2019. In particular, the attention is paid to the analysis of environmentalists' programme settings and tactical actions during the first and second rounds. The inner-party disagreements in the ranks of environmentalists are considered, the strategy for uniting «progressive» forces in order to compete in the second round of the presidential elections in 2022; the possible configuration of the confrontation between E. Macron and M. Le Pen is analyzed as well. The assessment of the electoral prospects of the "green" is given. Part III. France under E. Macron at the international stage Chapter 16. France - EU – USA: interaction and contradictions. Evgeniya Obitchkina, Doctor of Science (History), Professor at the Department for international relations and Russian foreign policy at MGIMO-University. Address: 76, Vernadskogo av., Moscow, Russia, 119454 ([email protected]). The chapter is devoted to the analysis of E. Macron's foreign policy strategy. In the center is his existential choice – ensuring the EU's place in the new world hierarchy. The sovereignty of foreign policy decisions was one of the foundations of the Fifth Republic's diplomacy, but the limitedness of its own resources determined the choice in favor of Atlantic and European integration, which limits French diplomacy to the binding framework of EU/NATO solidarity. E. Macron sees a way in strengthening sovereignty by transferring it to the EU level, hoping to captivate the Europeans with the construction of a “Europe-power” capable of defending its own interests in the rivalry of the leading centers of power: the USA and China, but also Russia or Turkey. He hopes to overcome the heterogeneity of interests within the EU thanks to the FrancoGerman core, seeking to shape around it an "avant-garde of desire", which would strive to turn the EU into a strong global player. The main obstacle is the crisis of confidence in France's leadership abilities, the lack of broad agreement with these initiatives both within the EU and within the member states. Chapter 17. Russian-French relations: results, achievements, problems. Pavel Timofeev, Ph. D (Politics), Head of Section for regional problems and conflicts, Department for European Political Studies, Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. Address: 23, Profsoyuznaya st., Moscow, Russia, 117997 ([email protected]). The chapter analyzes the dynamics of Russian-French relations during Macron’s presidency. The author shows that the French president indicated his intention to bring relations with Russia out of the impasse that developed after 2014. The artcile examines the areas in which Russia and France managed to advance their dialogue. Nevertheless, the author pays attention to the remaining and new problems for cooperation. The chapter concludes that by 2022, positive shifts in the Russian-French dialogue have emerged rather at the level of rhetoric than in practice, and the parties have a long way to go to fully normalize relations. Chapter 18. The French policy towards European countries at the post-soviet area. Kira Zueva, Ph. D (History), Senior Research Associate, Department for European Political Studies, Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. Address: 23, Profsoyuznaya st., Moscow, Russia, 117997 ([email protected]). France's relations with the European countries of the post-Soviet space under E. Macron are not a priority. Paris seeks to draw them into the orbit of influence of the West, but E. Macron is not
254 interested in their accession to the EU and NATO, and relations with them are not aimed at any "containment" of Russia. In relations with the states of the region, E. Macron seeks to participate in the process of peacemaking, in resolving "frozen" conflicts on their territories, but at the same time France could hardly provide them with serious economic support, yielding in this regard to Germany and other EU members. Chapter 19. Chinese factor in the French foreign policy: strategic and diplomatic aspects. Iskander Magadeev, Ph. D (History), Assistant Professor, Department of history and politics of European and American countries, Faculty of International Relations at MGIMOUniversity. Address: 76, Vernadskogo av., Moscow, Russia, 119454 ([email protected]). The chapter uncovers the role which China played in the French foreign policy from 2017 to 2022. Basing on the declarations and speeches made the President of France, on the documents of the Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Armed Forces, the author demonstrates the ambivalencies of the French estimates in regard of Beijing. China is perceived both as a potential partner, and as a strategic rival of France and the EU. There were elements of continuity in the Chinese policy of Paris and the Gaullist “instincts” persisted. Nevertheless, these “instincts” tend to clash with the deficiency of resources and the real capabilities of the Fifth Republic. Chapter 20. Security factor in the African policy of France. Alexander Sidorov, Ph. D (History), Senior Research Associate, Department of Europe and America, Institute of Scientific Information for Social Sciences (INION), Russian Academy of Sciences. Address: 51/21, Nakhimovsky av., Moscow, 117418 ([email protected]). The chapter examines France's attempts to re-align its dialogue with African countries based on civil society. Given the limited financial resources allocated for the economic development of the region and the complication of the security situation, France is forced to focus on the problem of power stabilization of the ruling regimes in Francophone Africa, especially in the Sahel. The features of the French approach to the implementation of military-political partnership and the strategy of combating international terrorism are highlighted. The reduction of France's ability to independently influence the course of the conflict settlement in the Sahel is showed. It is concluded that during the five years of E. Macron's presidential mandate, despite all the efforts of France, the security situation in most countries of Francophone Africa, especially of the Sahel region, continues to deteriorate, which indicates the deep endogenous causes of the crisis occurring there. Chapter 21. New destinations of French military policy under E. Macron. Alexey Chikhachev, Ph. D (Politics), Assistant of the Department for European studies, Faculty of International Relations, St Petersburg University (SPBU). Address: 1/3, Smolnogo st., St. Petersburg, Russia, 191060 ([email protected]). The chapter examines some areas of French military policy, which received particular development during the presidency of E. Macron - cybersecurity, space, the use of the armed forces for humanitarian purposes. For each area, the main points are outlined and the most noteworthy steps are highlited. It is summarized that in 2017-2021 these plots acquired intrinsic value for the Fifth Republic and will be considered by Paris in the future as integral components of military policy as a whole. Conclusion. Marina V. Klinova, Doctor of Science (Economics), Lead Researcher, Center for European Studies; Andrey Kudryavtsev, Ph. D (Economics), Senior Research Associate, Center for European Studies; Pavel Timofeev, Ph. D (Politics), Head of Section for regional problems and conflicts, Department for European Political Studies – Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) Russian Academy of Sciences.
255 ОБ АВТОРАХ Барановский Владимир Георгиевич – академик РАН, доктор исторических наук, профессор, руководитель Центра ситуационного анализа Национального исследовательского института мировой экономики и международных отношений имени Е.М. Примакова (ИМЭМО) РАН ([email protected]). Жидкова Александра Васильевна – кандидат исторических наук, методист Отдела образовательных проектов и мероприятий Государственного исторического музея ([email protected]). Зуева Кира Павловна – кандидат исторических наук, старший научный сотрудник Отдела европейских политических исследований ИМЭМО РАН ([email protected]). Канинская Галина Николаевна – доктор исторических наук, профессор, заведующая Кафедрой всеобщей истории Ярославского государственного университета имени П.Г. Демидова ([email protected]). Капля Анна Сергеевна – кандидат исторических наук, преподаватель Кафедры иностранных языков Исторического факультета Московского государственного университета (МГУ) имени М.В. Ломоносова ([email protected]). Клинова Марина Вилениновна – доктор экономических наук, ведущий научный сотрудник Центра европейских исследований ИМЭМО РАН ([email protected]). Комиссарова Жанна Николаевна – кандидат экономических наук, доцент, доцент Кафедры мировой экономики Московского государственного института международных отношений (МГИМО) МИД России ([email protected]). Костюк Руслан Васильевич – доктор исторических наук, профессор Кафедры теории и истории международных отношений Факультета международных отношений СанктПетербургского государственного университета (СПбГУ) ([email protected]). Кудрявцев Андрей Константинович – кандидат экономических наук, старший научный сотрудник Центра европейских исследований ИМЭМО РАН ([email protected]). Лапина Наталия Юрьевна – доктор политических наук, главный научный сотрудник, и.о. заведующего Отделом глобальных проблем Института научной информации по общественным наукам (ИНИОН) РАН ([email protected]). Магадеев Искандэр Эдуардович – кандидат исторических наук, доцент Кафедры истории и политики стран Европы и Америки Факультета международных отношений МГИМО МИД России ([email protected]). Моисеев Георгий Чеславович – кандидат исторических наук, доцент Кафедры новой и новейшей истории Исторического факультета Московского государственного университета (МГУ) имени М.В. Ломоносова ([email protected]). Наумова Наталья Николаевна – кандидат исторических наук, доцент Кафедры новой и новейшей истории Исторического факультета МГУ имени М.В. Ломоносова ([email protected]). Обичкина Евгения Олеговна – доктор исторических наук, профессор Кафедры международных отношений и внешней политики России МГИМО МИД России ([email protected]). Преображенская Арина Александровна – кандидат политических наук, старший научный сотрудник Центра сравнительных социально-экономических и политических исследований ИМЭМО РАН ([email protected]). Рубинский Юрий Ильич – доктор исторических наук, профессор, руководитель Центра французских исследований Института Европы РАН ([email protected]). Сидоров Александр Сергеевич – кандидат исторических наук, старший научный сотрудник Отдела Европы и Америки ИНИОН РАН ([email protected]).
256 Стрельцова Яна Рудольфовна – кандидат исторических наук, доцент Российского экономического университета имени Г.В. Плеханова, ведущий научный сотрудник Института демографических исследований Федерального научно-исследовательского социологического центра РАН ([email protected]). Тимофеев Павел Петрович – кандидат политических наук, заведующий сектором региональных проблем и конфликтов Отдела европейских исследований ИМЭМО РАН ([email protected]). Трофимова Ольга Ефимовна – кандидат экономических наук, ведущий научный сотрудник Центра европейских исследований ИМЭМО РАН ([email protected]). Черноуцан Елена Михайловна – кандидат экономических наук, старший научный сотрудник Отдела науки и инноваций ИМЭМО РАН; доцент Московского государственного лингвистического университета ([email protected]). Чихачёв Алексей Юрьевич – кандидат политических наук, ассистент Кафедры европейских исследований Факультета международных отношений СПбГУ ([email protected]). Шмелёв Дмитрий Викторович – доктор исторических наук, профессор Кафедры археологии и всеобщей истории Казанского федерального университета ([email protected]).
Научное издание Современная Франция: между тревогами и надеждами Ответственные редакторы: Клинова Марина Вилениновна Кудрявцев Андрей Константинович Тимофеев Павел Петрович Коллективная монография На обложке использованы общедоступные иллюстрации из сети Интернет в некоммерческих целях. _________________________________________ Подписано в печать 05.04.2022 Формат 60х84/8. Печать офсетная. Объем 32,25 п.л., 21,8 а.л. Тираж 300 экз. Заказ №8 /2022 _________________________________________ Издательство ИМЭМО РАН Адрес: 117997, Москва, Профсоюзная ул., 23