Time

DOUBLE ISSUE DEC. 28, 2015 / JAN. 4, 2016

TheYearAhead

Adele.

Page 118

time.com

VOL. 186, NO. 27–28 | 2015

The Year Ahead 6 | From the
Publisher
POWER 9 | Conversation
14 | Verbatim
Jeh Johnson,
LGBT rights, El The Brief
Niño, Paul Ryan,
Nancy Pelosi 48 News from the U.S. and
around the world
SPORTS 17 | Ted Cruz steps
up his ground game
Stephen Curry,
Dave Roberts, the 21 | The Arab Spring’s
2016 Summer ifth birthday
Olympics 72
23 | Life as a Muslim
INVENTION woman in Virginia COVER PHOTO HAIR AND MAKEUP: MICHAEL ASHTON; GYMNAST: DAVID GUT TENFELDER FOR TIME; ANDERSON: FRED DUVAL— FILMMAGIC/GE T T Y IMAGES

Satya Nadella, 25 | The Fed raises
Riccardo Tisci, interest rates
NASA, Jennifer
Doudna 96 26 | Does your mood
affect your health?
CULTURE
30 | How to ind a job
Adele, Gen Z, after you retire
Elizabeth Strout,
O.J. Simpson, The View
The X-Files 118
Ideas, opinion,
HEALTH innovations
33 | Ian Bremmer on
The latest science our G-zero world
on what you
should eat. A 36 | Five guest
TIME primer 145 commentaries

45 | Joe Klein: Of
Dems and doves

150 | Anniversaries
we’ll note in 2016

151 | Joel Stein’s
2016 predictions

152 | 2016 news quiz

Gillian
Anderson,
page 142

Gymnast Sam Mikulak practices in the U.S. Olympic Training Center

On the cover:
Photograph by Erik Madigan Heck for TIME

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4 TIME December 28, 2015–January 4, 2016

REDUCING TRAFFIC.
MOVING LIVES
FORWARD.

Panama City’s growth has been fast, but success has made
commutes slow. To alleviate congestion, the Government of
Panama made building a mass transit system a priority. Citi, with
a history in the country dating back to funding the Panama Canal,
worked with government leaders to arrange financing for the
Panama Metro project. The end result: Better access to jobs and
healthcare services, as well as reduced greenhouse gas emissions.
For over 200 years, Citi’s job has been to believe in people and
help make their ideas a reality.

citi.com/progress

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From the Publisher

An exciting time
to lead TIME

IT’S BEEN ALMOST A YEAR SINCE I HAD THE ‘This kind of you for your business. We are grateful for the
good fortune of taking the mantle of publisher storytelling trust you place in TIME. You make so much of
at TIME, and I can think of no greater thrill than simply cannot this possible.
leading TIME’s sales and marketing organization be done without
while working alongside editor Nancy Gibbs and the support of In the year ahead, look for TIME to play even
her world-class team of journalists. I am proud our partners. more ambitiously, and look to ind us in places
to report that it’s been an exceptional year for Thank you for that perhaps you wouldn’t expect. We are unveil-
TIME. We’ve seen signiicant revenue growth your business.’ ing the 100 Most Inluential Photographs of All
across all of our platforms, from digital and video Time in June, presented through an immersive,
to print and live events. THE video-driven digital gallery and live events. It’s a
SALES fascinating time to be in the media and journal-
Ambitious multimedia programs such as TEAM ism business, in part because so much is changing
“A Year in Space,” “Question Everything” and so quickly. But at TIME, what will always remain
TIME Labs, our new home for data-driven story- is trust, credibility, access and the unique ability
telling, fueled new journalistic enterprises as well to convene the voices that command our atten-
as commercial success. tion and fascination.

Our advertising partnerships matter, because Happy New Year. And thanks for making time
what we endeavor to do at TIME is neither small for TIME.
nor easy; as Nancy once explained, “We ask sharp
questions, tell hard truths, go where others can’t Meredith Long, PUBLISHER
and turn a light on the people whose inluence
you feel even if you’ve never heard their names.”
To give you an example, in the past year alone,
TIME assigned more than 100 photographers to
cover stories across ive continents.

This kind of storytelling simply cannot be
done without the support of our partners. Thank

PUBLISHER Meredith Long

ASSOCIATE PUBLISHER Jorg Stratmann VICE PRESIDENT, GENER AL MANAGER, DIGITAL Kurt Fulepp SENIOR VICE PRESIDENTS, CONSUMER MARKE TING AND RE VENUE Jef Blatt,
Stephen Selwood SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, COMMUNICATIONS Daniel Kile VICE PRESIDENT, COMMUNICATIONS Kerri Chyka VICE PRESIDENTS, FINANCE Maria Beckett, Wajeeha

Ahmed VICE PRESIDENT, LIVE MEDIA Lisa Cline VICE PRESIDENT, CONSUMER MARKE TING AND RE VENUE Lydia Morris VICE PRESIDENT, OPER ATIONS Robert Kanell
VICE PRESIDENT, MARKE TING Eric Wilson VICE PRESIDENT, DEPUT Y GENER AL COUNSEL Steven Weissman VICE PRESIDENT, HUMAN RESOURCES Roxanne Flores

ADVERTISING SALES Atlanta Jennifer Werner MARKETING Matt Gallagher, Alysha Youille (Directors); COMMUNICATIONS Erin Madigan White (Director); Ashlee
Boston Brian Shepherd Chicago Jacie Brandes (Director); Mary Kate Burns, Jamie Golob, Jamie Hargraves, Hannah Calame (Associate Director); Kelsey Rohwer (Manager);
Kala Ingardona, Leah Root Detroit Laura Regalado, Kelly Hashmi, Erica Rancatore Raina Dembner (Publicist); Hailey Murphy (Coordinator)
Wood Los Angeles Farhad Fozounmayeh (Director); Drew CREATIVE SERVICES Paton Roth, Doug Knapton, Maryellis TIME FOR KIDS Jill Musguire (Director); Shari Diamond,
Pederson New York Jody Reiss (Director); Will Cusack, Bunn Britta Lampeter
Elisabeth Hatab-Schaefer, Dana Mateshic, Hannah Showak, CUSTOM CONTENT Will Roth (Director, Brand Innovation); ADMINISTRATION Atlanta Wendy Williams Boston Caitlin
Leah Rolef Weinberg San Francisco Sarah Casnocha Joshua David Stein (Director, Branded Content) Travers Chicago Monica Weiss Detroit Amy Simers Los
LIVE MEDIA Delwyn Gray (Senior Executive Producer); CONSUMER INSIGHT Joel Kaji (Senior Director); Rachel Angeles Ani Barsamian New York Desiree Johnson, Sarah
Kristen Leoce (Executive Director); Jennifer Current, Lazarus (Manager) McAvoy, Christine Rubenstein San Francisco Denise
Janine Lind, Megan Marcel, Katherine McDonnell, CONSUMER MARKE TING AND RE VENUE Eunice Chi Villarreal Washington Vornida Seng
Katie O’Connell, Virginia Slattery (Director); Laura Applestein, Marissa Englander, Randi TIME INC. RE TAIL SALES AND MARKE TING Eric Szegda
TIME.com Parinda Muley (Director, Business Erber, Anisa Hodelin, Andrejs Lazda, Nicole Padovano (Vice President); Amy Mandelbaum (Director); Melanie
Development); Lisa Horstmann (Client Services Director); FINANCE Wynne Wong (Executive Director); Arbena Bal, Piselli (Brand Manager); Josh Lewis (Assistant Brand
Mark Marvel (Director, Video and Mobile Strategy); Sharon Rosemary Garcia (Associate Directors); Paula Esposito, Manager)
Denning, Tim Kolenda, Thomas Martyn, Aleks Mielczarek, Catherine Keenan, Daniel Seon, Dan Torockio (Managers);
Brittany Quon, Seth Roberts Jessica Piro, Paul Yoo (Analysts)

TIME INC. KAT TUOHY

E XECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENTS Jef Bairstow, Rich Battista, Lynne Biggar, Colin Bodell, Greg Giangrande, Lawrence A. Jacobs, Eric Moreno, Evelyn Webster
TIME INC. MEDIA GROUP Mark Ford (Executive Vice President, Global Advertising Sales); Andy Blau (Senior Vice President, Advertising Sales and Marketing—Finance);
Mark Ellis (Senior Vice President, Sales); Matt Bean (Senior Vice President, Editorial Innovation); Lauren Newman (Vice President, Sales); Dan Realson (Vice President, Digital);

Cara Deoul Perl (Vice President, Creative Director); Steve Cambron (Vice President, Marketing Ad Solutions); Christine Woo (Vice President, Strategic Client Solutions);
Lori Dente (Vice President, Finance); Caryn Klein (Vice President, Business Research and Insights); Nancy Mynio (Vice President, Digital Ad Operations);
Kavata Mbondo (Vice President, Yield and Programmatic); Lori Kaplan (Executive Oice Manager)
VIDEO J.R. McCabe (Senior Vice President) CONSUMER INSIGHT Barry Martin (Vice President)

TECHNOLOGY AND PRODUCT ENGINEERING Colin Bodell (CTO); Alam Ali, Linda Apsley, Adam Days, Robert Dufy, Amanda Hanes, Hugues Hervouet, Simon Loxham,
Leon Misiukiewicz, Keith O’Sullivan, Ben Ramadan, Ashis Roy, Eric Schoonover, Vita Sheehy, Jimmie Tomei (Vice Presidents)

6 TIME December 28, 2015–January 4, 2016

Just because you don’t see it,
doesn’t mean it isn’t there.

Introducing the newly redesigned Volkswagen Passat with Blind Spot Monitor, one When equipped with
of seven available Driver Assistance features.* Passat. Where family happens. optional Front Assist

vw.com Simulated image. *Driver Assistance features are not substitutes for attentive driving. See Owner’s Manual for further details and important limitations. For more information, visit www.iihs.org. ©2016 Volkswagen of America, Inc.

Plug it in your car, and see if your good driving could ©2015 Progressive Casualty Ins. Co. & affiliates. Insurance prices and
help you save big with Progressive. We’ll even let products are different when purchased directly from Progressive or through
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Conversation

What you A MIRTHFUL MERKEL Days after Angela Merkel was named
said about ... TIME’s 2015 Person of the Year, Saturday Night Live’s Kate McKinnon
reprised her impression of the German Chancellor as part of the
show’s Weekend Update segment. “This is und hoot, as well as und
holler,” “Merkel” told anchor Colin Jost—especially coming at the end
of a tough year during which, among other challenges, “Syria asked if
1 million refugees could sleep on my couch.”

PERSON OF THE YEAR TIME’s choice of

German Chancellor Angela Merkel as Per-

son of the Year was “inspired,” tweeted U.S.

Ambassador to the U.N. Samantha Power

on Dec. 9, as Merkel’s name trended world-

wide. It was also

historic, mark- ‘Herzlichen
ing just the fourth

time that a woman Glückwunsch

has held the title to my friend

solo—a moment and Time’s
welcomed by Janice Person of the
Moglen of Colorado Year, Angela
Springs (“Note to Merkel!’
all the schoolgirls
TIME LABS The recession oficially ended in 2009, but millions of
of the world . . . PRESIDENT BARACK Americans are still feeling its effects. Using new igures from the U.S.
You may grow OBAMA (@POTUS) Census Bureau, TIME Labs maps out, county by county, where and how
incomes have changed since the recovery began. Check your county
up to be Angela at labs.time.com.

Merkel”), Melinda

Gates (she “put women and girls on the

global agenda”) and the website Jezebel

(“Yasssss Mom!!!”).

But some were critical of the choice,

mostly because of Merkel’s welcoming stance

on refugees. Although that position makes

Germany “a moral leader,” wrote Dylan

Matthews of Vox, Andrew Stuttaford at the

National Review criticized the “naiveté” of

TIME’s take on it. Donald Trump, who ap-

peared third on our short list (behind ISIS

leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi), was also vocal.

“I told you @TIME Magazine would never

pick me as per-

‘I know your son of the year –15% & less –14% to –10% –9% to –5% –4% to 4% 5% to 9% 10% to 14% 15% & more
despite being the

policy has been big favorite,” he

guided by how tweeted. “They TALK TO US

inluential picked the per- ▽▽

someone has son who is ruining SEND AN EMAIL: FOLLOW US:
been, but mass Germany.”
murderers and [email protected] facebook.com/time
psychopaths do Meanwhile,
SNL: DANA EDELSON—NBC/GETTY IMAGES not need more Caitlyn Jenner, Please do not send attachments @time (Twitter and Instagram)
recognition.’ listed as No. 7, ap-
peared grateful for Letters should include the writer’s full name, address and home
the recognition. telephone and may be edited for purposes of clarity and space

FRED HEAN, “Thank you TIME Back Issues Contact us at [email protected] or Please recycle this
Charlottesville, Va., on for including call 1-800-274-6800. Reprints and Permissions Information magazine and remove
POY runner-up ISIS leader me,” she tweeted. is available at time.com/reprints. To request custom reprints, inserts or samples
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi “So cool!” visit timereprints.com. Advertising For advertising rates and before recycling
our editorial calendar, visit timemediakit.com. Syndication
For international licensing and syndication requests, email
[email protected] or call 1-212-522-5868.

9

Own a Piece of

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©2015 Time Inc. TIME and LIFE are trademarks of Time Inc.

Conversation

The top 10 photos of 2015

A sampling of the year’s most powerful and important images, as chosen by TIME’s
photo editors. See the full selection at lightbox.time.com.

TOP 10, CLOCK WISE FROM TOP LEF T: DAMON WINTER—THE NE W YORK TIMES/REDUX; GOR AN TOMASE VIC — REUTERS; GEORGI LICOVSKI — EPA; ROSS MCDONNELL; V W: INGO WAGNER— DPA/AP; E AST WOOD: HULTON ARCHIVE— GE T T Y IMAGES Ukrainian soldiers conduct operations along a road to A supporter of Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari
the embattled town of Debaltseve on Feb. 15 is hit by a motorbike in Kano on March 31

The impact of drought in California is vividly apparent Two children cry as migrants try to force their way past

in Rancho Mirage on April 3 police in Gevgelija, Macedonia, on Aug. 21

NOW PLAYING TIME asked ilmmaker Oscar Boyson to explain, in NEWSSTAND
just a few minutes, what makes Star Wars special. One reason: give- PREVIEW A new
and-take with the larger culture. Watch at time.com/starwars-special. TIME Special Edition
dives deep into the
ADVERTISING POLITICS CINEMA BONUS life of Alexander
Star Wars bounty TIME Hamilton. The man on
In the most widely The Strategic hunter Boba Fett the $10 bill has long
shared Super Defense Initiative, sounds remarkably Subscribe to been one of the least
a missile-defense like Manco, the The Brief for free well-known igures
Bowl ad ever, a kid system proposed bounty hunter played and get a daily among the Founding
dressed as Darth by Ronald Reagan by Clint Eastwood in email with the Fathers of the U.S.—
Vader famously the 1965 western For 12 stories you but that’s changing, as his story has become
starts his parents’ in 1983, was a subject of interest from the best-seller
Volkswagen Passat dubbed Star Wars by a Few Dollars More. need to know list to the Broadway stage. As biographer
using the Force. to start your Ron Chernow explains to TIME, it helps that
the media. Hamilton’s philosophy can sound surprisingly
morning. modern, as “America has grown into the
For more, visit contours of the country of his imagination.”
time.com/email. Alexander Hamilton will be available in stores
starting Dec. 25.

13

Verbatim

‘To all of our Cheerleaders C,','1
7
Muslim friends New research 7+,1.,7
shows they’re less :28/'%(
throughout likely to be injured 7+,6%,*
the world ... than other high :+(1,7
I am sorry.’ school athletes 67$57('


GOOD WEEK GEORGE LUCAS, Star Wars
BAD WEEK creator, left, before the world
premiere of Star Wars: The
Force Awakens

LINDSEY GRAHAM, Republican Football
presidential candidate, right, players
condemning front runner Donald New research
Trump’s proposal to bar Muslims shows concussions
from entering the U.S.; “He does increase the
not represent us,” Graham said likelihood of other
injuries
8 billion ‘This action
marks the ‘I would feel like she
Number of times end of an was carrying me.’
Americans collectively extraordinary
seven-year SHERYL SANDBERG, Facebook executive,
check their phones period.’ revealing that tennis superstar Serena
each day, according to a Williams, Sports Illustrated’s 2015
new study; the average JANET YELLEN, chair of Sportsperson of the Year, comforted her
person takes a look 46 the Federal Reserve, and tucked in her children after the death of
after the central bank Sandberg’s husband in May
times per day raised interest rates
for the irst time $79,000
since the Great SANDBERG, YELLEN: AP; GETTY IMAGES (5); ILLUSTRATIONS BY BROWN BIRD DESIGN FOR TIME
Recession

28,000 Amount an anonymous
donor who went by the
name Santa B spent
paying off shoppers’
layaway bills at a
Pennsylvania Walmart

Liters of bottled water ‘We cannot start overreacting.’

the U.S. sent to Flint, WILLIAM BRATTON, New York City police commissioner, after Los Angeles
Mich., where the shut down schools in response to a terrorism threat later deemed not to be credible;

city’s water supply is New York City schools received a similar threat but did not close
contaminated by lead



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‘BECAUSE I HAVE KIDS, I’M FEARFUL OF SOMETHING HAPPENING TO ME.’ —PAGE 23

Cruz, seen at a Dec. 5 event in Iowa, believes grassroots campaigning can beat Trump’s buzz

POLITICS SAY WHAT YOU WILL ABOUT SENATOR been sweating the giant crowds and
Ted Cruz, the Texas Republican who huge polling leads of Donald Trump
How Ted Cruz strikes colleagues as bullheaded and as the clock ticks down to the Feb. 1
is winning has never shied from a hyperpartisan Iowa caucuses. The lashy rallies and
the GOP ight. Just don’t call him lazy. iery rhetoric are good for headlines,
race—on the but they alone will not carry the brash
ground He shows up for late-night screen- billionaire to the nomination. (Trump
ings of Christian movies in Iowa and has hired a contestant from his former
By Philip Elliott early-morning town halls in New TV show The Apprentice to run his
Hampshire, including one so remote Iowa operations.) Tradition says vic-
PHOTOGRAPH BY SCOTT MORGAN that guests were warned that if they tory often goes to the candidate with
wandered away, bees, moose and rabid the ear closest to the ground.
raccoons might kill them. He’s ine
with three-hour drives between events, Cruz is not alone in focusing on ef-
as long as his iPhone is charged and forts far from the spotlight. Take New
loaded with puzzles. And he has built Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who
a campaign with a chairman for every has essentially qualiied for dual resi-
county in the irst four primary and dency in New Hampshire these days.
caucus states, ixers who can tell his By Christmas, he will have spent 56
team how to win over the local ag com- days of 2015 in the state doing 118
missioners, 4-H judges and pastors. events, most of them not much big-
ger than a town-council meeting. “You
This is precisely why Cruz has not

AP

17

The Brief

can’t win if you don’t show up,” a Christie adviser TRENDING EXPLAINER POLICING, HEALTH: REUTERS; DIPLOMACY: GETTY IMAGES; ILLUSTRATION BY MARTIN GEE FOR TIME
deadpans. Or consider former Florida governor Jeb
Bush, the onetime front runner who has gone to POLICING Degrees of
ground with stunts to illustrate his small-ball work A judge declared a global warming
ethic, like making New Hampshire history with mistrial in the case
ive town-hall-style meetings in one day. of William Porter, The Paris Agreement, struck by nearly 200
the Baltimore police countries on Dec. 12, aims to limit global
Such on-the-ground work is not sexy. It’s ac- officer charged in the warming. But just how much warmer it will get
tually fairly miserable for candidates and their death of unarmed depends on how deeply countries cut carbon
inner circles. Long drives. Bad food. Constant black man Freddie emissions. —Justin Worland
scrutiny. And it does not show up in early poll- Gray, complicating
ing, which has been weaponized this cycle by net- the prosecution of five 3.5°C
work debate qualiications and Trump, who rarely other officers charged, This is how much
speaks without some polling reference. It’s worth including a case in temperatures would
remembering that at this point in past presiden- which Porter was seen rise by 2100 even
tial campaigns, Howard Dean, Hillary Clinton, as a key witness. if nations meet
Rudy Giuliani and Newt Gingrich were leading in initial Paris pledges
national surveys. DIPLOMACY to reduce carbon
Russian President emissions; this rise
The hard work, instead, is geared at taking ad- Vladimir Putin said could still submerge
vantage of voters who traditionally decide at the in his year-end news coastal cities and
last minute. In 2012, 46% of Iowa and New Hamp- conference Dec. 17 drive over half of all
shire Republicans made their pick during the inal he is ready to improve species to extinction.
week, according to exit polls. An internal survey of ties with the U.S. and
5,000 Iowans done during the second week of De- work with the country’s 2°C
cember for Mike Huckabee’s campaign found 75% next President. He also To meet this
of Republican caucusgoers—a group likely to num- praised Republican minimum goal, the
ber 140,000 in a state of 3.1 million—still haven’t presidential front Paris accord requires
made up their minds. That explains why, despite runner Donald Trump countries to tighten
being stuck in single digits, few candidates are as emissions targets
despondent as surveys would suggest they should as a “bright and every ive years. Even
be; late-breaking rises, like Cruz’s, can come. The talented man.” this increase could
trick is to have a political machine in place to take sink some islands,
advantage of good fortune. HEALTH worsen drought and
A recent British drive a decline of
On this score, Cruz may be the candidate to Medical Journal study up to a third in the
beat. Like rival Marco Rubio, he has not commit- claims to debunk the number of species.
ted a single meaningful gafe over the course of assumption in the
the campaign and has consistently performed well U.S. that Brits have 1.5°C
in national debates. But unlike Rubio, Cruz has bad teeth, claiming This is the most
spent millions on a sophisticated voter-proiling Americans’ teeth are ambitious goal for
database. In Iowa alone, the campaign has re- no better. In fact, temperature rise set
cruited almost 4,000 volunteers with rewards like it suggested the by the Paris Agree-
opening-night tickets to the latest Star Wars. His average American is ment, after a push
relatively short public career suggests that there missing more teeth, by low-lying island
is no knockout sound bite that will haunt him owing to the high cost nations like Kiribati,
should he win the nomination. (His positions, of dental insurance. which say limiting
however, ofer plenty of fodder for Democrats. For temperature rise to
instance, he claims climate change is not backed 1.5°C could allow
up by science.) them to survive.

Meanwhile, Cruz’s super PACs—yes, there are 0.8°C
several—have at least $30 million at the ready This is how much
to defend his rising standing. That pales next to temperatures have
Trump’s billions, but the New Yorker was set to
end the year without having run a single televi- risen since the
sion commercial. While his rivals plodded and industrial age began,
boasted, Cruz convinced donors early that polls putting us 40% of the
take a backseat to organization and discipline. way to the 2°C point.
The smart money still thinks he may be right.
—With additional reporting by ZEKE J. MILLER/ 0°C
PARADISE, NEV. The baseline here
is average global
18 TIME December 28, 2015–January 4, 2016 temperature before

the start of the
industrial age.

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The Brief

DATA

FINISHING
SCHOOL

A record 82% of
kids graduated
from high school

in the U.S.
in 2013–14.
Here’s a sample
of how other
countries rate on
graduation:

Russia
94%

HOT ROCKS A woman tends her plants as volcanic ash spews from Mount Bromo, near the city of Probolinggo, in Japan
Indonesia. Local oficials said the 7,641-ft.-tall volcano, a popular tourist destination in East Java, erupted on Dec. 15, 93%
sending a column of ash and gravel a mile into the sky. Bromo is part of the Ring of Fire, a circle of volcanoes surrounding
the Paciic Ocean. Flights were grounded during a 2011 eruption. Photograph by Chine Nouvelle— Xinhua/Sipa Israel
87%
THEN & NOW cracked down on political opponents,
leaving over 1,000 dead and tens of U.S.
The Arab Spring thousands jailed. 82%
turns ive
Sweden
GETTY IMAGES On Dec. 17, 2011, protests in Tunisia △ YEMEN After longtime ruler Ali Abdul- 77%
kicked of what would become known Tunisia’s lah Saleh stepped down in 2012, his
as the Arab Spring, a wave of demo- revolution began successor Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi China
cratic movements that have changed the in 2010 after a was ousted by Houthi rebels in Janu- 65%
face of the region. Here’s how the key vegetable-cart ary. A Saudi Arabia–led air campaign
countries are faring half a decade on: owner set himself has attempted to dislodge the rebels 21
on ire in protest of since March, at the cost of 5,000 lives.
TUNISIA Regarded as the lone success the regime
story of the revolts, Tunisia’s political ri- SYRIA The Syrian uprising spawned
vals crafted a compromise in 2013 that an armed revolt, then civil war. With
avoided bloodshed and recently won the 250,000 dead so far, the country is now
alliance the Nobel Peace Prize. But many split among the regime of President
are worried that reforms have stalled, Bashar Assad, rebel groups, Kurdish
amid security concerns after deadly ji- militias and extremists like ISIS.
hadist attacks in March and June.
LIBYA After the uprising toppled dicta-
EGYPT In 2013, Egypt’s military tor Muammar Gaddai, Libya’s political
overthrew Islamist President Mo- transition collapsed. The country is now
hamed Morsi, who was elected after divided among two rival parliaments
the uprising. Since then, the regime and various militia groups. ISIS is gain-
of General Abdul Fattah al-Sisi has ing territory. —JARED MALSIN

Haiti/Frederic Sautereau WHERE THERE ARE
NO HOSPITALS

THAT’S WHERE WE OPERATE.

DoctorsWithoutBorders.org

The Brief

TRENDING SPOTLIGHT △ HATEFUL
Yazmin Ali: “Because I have RESPONSE
L AW What it’s like kids, I’m fearful of something Police have started
Japan’s Supreme Court to be Muslim investigating several
upheld a 19th century in America, happening to me.” anti-Muslim attacks
law on Dec. 15 forcing post-Paris since the Paris
These are diicult times for terrorism on Nov. 13.
married couples to FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HER American Muslims. According to
share the same last life, Yazmin Ali is afraid to leave one tally, there have been 38 anti- Pflugerville, Texas
name. Critics called it her house in a cookie-cutter sub- Islamic attacks in the U.S. since Vandals tore up
a setback for women’s division outside Fredericksburg, the Paris terrorism. The trend was pages of the Quran
rights in a patriarchal Va. The reason: she’s Muslim and also bad in 2014, with the FBI re- and covered them
society where studies wears a hijab. porting that hate crimes decreased with feces at a
show married women for all categories of victims except mosque entrance.
It doesn’t matter that Ali, 34, Muslims.
opt to take the was born and raised in Florida, that Philadelphia
husband’s name 96% her mother is a Cuban-American Since the Paris attacks, Ali has A severed pig’s
evangelical Christian, that she has a started to organize a self-defense head was tossed
of the time. master’s degree or that she learned class for fellow Muslim women, at a mosque from a
Arabic only through a State Depart- and she’s pushing her mosque to passing pickup truck.
JUSTICE ment scholarship. After terrorist at- display the U.S. and Virginia lags.
Executions in the tacks in Paris and San Bernardino, But she still plans to take Christ- Bloomington, Ind.
U.S. fell to their Calif., she began noticing more mas cookies to her neighbors and An Indiana University
lowest total in almost dirty looks from strangers. When keep wearing her hijab. “To take student allegedly
25 years in 2015, it was raining recently and she of- it of almost means I’ve allowed attacked a Muslim
according to the Death fered to let other parents shelter hate to permeate and penetrate my woman at a café,
Penalty Information in her car at her kids’ bus stop, she identity,” she says. choking her and
Center, and the says, they said no. removing her scarf.
number of death —ELIZABETH DIAS
sentences decreased Four days after the Paris Grand Forks, N.D.
by a third. Shortages attacks, protesters disrupted a A Somali restaurant
of lethal-injection public meeting to discuss a new was defaced with a
drugs are said to be Islamic center in Ali’s hometown, Nazi-style symbol.
shouting, “Every Muslim is a ter- Days later it was
one factor. rorist!” Then a man with a Con- torched with a
federate lag showed up to protest Molotov cocktail.
FA I T H a coat drive for Syrian refugees. Ali
Mother Teresa is to started disguising her hijab under Coachella, Calif.
be made a saint now a winter hat and scarf. “I had a A 23-year-old man
that Pope Francis has really long, good cry,” she says. faces hate-crime,
approved her second arson and burglary
miracle, involving the charges for allegedly
healing of a Brazilian irebombing a
man’s brain infection mosque before the
11 years after her start of afternoon
death. The celebrated prayer.
missionary, who died
LAW: AP; JUSTICE: REUTERS; FAITH: GETTY IMAGES; ALI: COURTESY OF YAZMIN ALI in 1997, is expected TODAY IN B.S.
to be canonized in
No, antidepressants during pregnancy do
September. not dramatically increase autism risk

HEADLINES SCREAMED THE resents a tiny absolute increase in
alarming results: a large study in risk. The study also couldn’t estab-
JAMA Pediatrics reported an 87% lish for sure whether the drugs—or
increased risk of autism among the depression that made them
children born to women taking necessary—were responsible
antidepressants. But 87% higher for the autism link. Moms-to-be
than what? About 1% of babies should weigh the need to treat
worldwide are born with autism. their depression against the small
And while an 87% increase in rela- chance that the drugs could afect
tive risk sounds like a lot, it rep- the fetus.—ALICE PARK

23

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The Brief

ROUNDUP BAD FOR BAD FOR GOOD FOR UNCLEAR FOR STOCK

Fallout from HOMEOWNERS PEOPLE WITH SAVERS INVESTORS
A modest one-time Long-suffering savers, Because the rate
the Fed’s Fed rate increase CREDIT-CARD DEBT bump had been
won’t rock the housing Most credit-card who have earned
rate hike market. But longer virtually zero interest anticipated for
term, homeowners will interest rates move on their bank deposits months, stock prices
Fed Chair Janet Yellen likely feel hangover in lockstep with the for years, welcomed
announced Dec. 16 that the effects from years of Fed’s target—so get the news with caution. mostly adjusted in
central bank would raise easy money. Anyone ready for your monthly It’ll take years for rates advance. Historically,
interest rates for the irst with an adjustable- minimum payment to rise appreciably, though, rising interest
time in almost a decade. Any rate mortgage will to tick up. The good banks aren’t in a hurry rates mean a falling
further monetary tightening eventually take a hit, news? If you’re paying equities market; stock
will be gradual and contingent would-be buyers won’t the national average to pass along the valuations tend to fall
on continued economic be able to stretch their of 15% interest on a beneits to customers, 10% in the year after
health, she explained, budgets as far, and the big credit-card debt,
projecting that rates would upward trajectory of 15.25% isn’t much and the Fed could the hiking begins,
rise 3 percentage points in home prices since the worse. But smart folks reverse course in according to Goldman
three years. What should the housing crisis could could use this early the meantime. Still, Sachs. But the Fed’s
average consumer make of all warning as a nudge to earning a modest
this economic commentary? stall out. pay down their balance return on savings move also signals
Here’s who wins and loses. accounts and CDs a sunny economic
faster. is better than next outlook; if it’s right,
—Scott Medintz to nothing at all. stronger corporate
earnings should follow.

The Brief Health

New studies show how our
mood afects our health—for
better and for worse

by Alexandra Siferlin

IN LIGHT OF NEW EVIDENCE THAT HAPPY PEOPLE DON’T LIVE MINDFULNESS
longer than their grumpy peers, one might be tempted to drop the
pursuit altogether. A recent study published in the Lancet followed AND BODY FAT:
nearly 720,000 middle-aged women for several years and reported
that while those who were happier tended to be healthier, they had In an October 2015 study,
no edge when it came to longevity. (Similarly, while unhappiness may people with mindful
be a side efect of illness, research shows that it is not alone capable dispositions—an ability to
of making you sick.) On the other hand, evidence shows stay focused on the present
that attitude can have meaningful—and in some
cases measurable—efects on health, even if it moment—were found to
can’t outright extend one’s life. Here’s the have less body fat. Men
latest on the mind-body connection. and women with lower
levels of mindfulness had
Surprising a 34% higher prevalence
efects of mind- of obesity compared with
set on the body people with high levels of

mindfulness. Though it’s only
an association, researchers
suggest people who are more
aware may be more likely to eat
healthier and exercise more.

MOOD AND ANGER AND HEART AWE AND REDUCED OUTLOOK AND

SURGERY ATTACK RISK: INFLAMMATION: ALZHEIMER’S

OUTCOMES: A 2015 study found having an Awe was found in a DISEASE:
episode of intense anger was January 2015 study to reduce
If a person is associated with an 8.5 times compounds that promote The stereotypes a person
in a bad mood, greater likelihood of having inlammation, which is linked to holds about old age can
their medical a heart attack in the next diseases ranging from Type 2 affect how their brain ages,
procedure may two hours. Exactly how anger diabetes to arthritis. In the found a new Yale School
not go as smoothly, could contribute to a heart small study, college students of Public Health study.
a December 2015 study attack remains unknown, but illed out questionnaires about Men and women who
showed. In the study, the the researchers speculate how often they experienced viewed aging negatively
researchers looked at 230 that stress triggers increased certain emotions. They found had a greater loss of
people who underwent heart rate and blood pressure, that happy moods in general hippocampus volume and
procedures in which a blood-vessel constriction and were associated with lower signiicantly higher scores
catheter was inserted into clotting, which raise risk. inlammation, but the students of plaques—both indicators
a blood vessel. Before the who experienced awe most of Alzheimer’s disease. The
procedure, people illed out often had especially lower researchers say it’s the
a questionnaire that asked levels. irst time this type of risk
them to rate various adjectives factor has been linked to
describing how they felt the development of brain
emotionally. The study authors changes associated with
found that people with more Alzheimer’s.
negative feelings had a greater
incidence of adverse events ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY FL AKE FOR TIME
from the procedure, like slow
heart rate or abnormal blood
pressure. The research is
early, but it’s not the irst time
scientists have seen physical
changes from a negative mood.

26 TIME December 28, 2015–January 4, 2016

Leader, Revolutionary
and Rival

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The Brief Retirement

It was their plan all along.”

GRAYING WORKERS Companies like Intel and

7 out of 10 IBM make it easier for their
Fraction of HR
managers who say retirees through speciic
older workers have
a “stronger work programs that help them
ethic”
transition into meaningful
4%
postcareer employment.
Percentage of irms
that have a formal Others, like Scripps Health
strategy for retaining
and Atlantic Health Systems,
older workers
make the AARP list of 50
SOURCE: SOCIETY FOR HUMAN
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT best employers for workers

past age 50 by ofering a

phased retirement scheme

that lets workers wind down

a little at a time.

For the millions who do

not work at such companies,

the obvious risk is that these

people retire and, after some

Interns with a bit more will hire 400 workers in time of, do not ind other
gray in their hair the U.K. who are near or
coming out of retirement, work. That’s when it may
By Dan Kadlec from any ield, and it expects
to expand the program be beneicial to turn back
globally over time and share
its recruiting platform with the clock and explore an in-
other businesses. Barclays
especially values these ternship or volunteer with a
workers’ openness to lexible
hours, mentoring potential group like the Peace Corps or
and life experiences that
WORKING LONGER IS OFTEN less than 5% have a formal enable them to relate to the Teach for America. “These
seen as the simple answer strategy for keeping and needs of older customers in
to inadequate retirement attracting them, according branch oices, Vaswani says. positions don’t always
savings. But the math only to the Society for Human
works if you ind someone Resource Management. The program is part of a pay,” says Marc Freedman,
to hire you, and past age 50 In November, long-term slowly shifting tide. Two-
that is far from easy. To gain unemployment stood at 38% thirds of HR professionals founder of Encore.org, which
an edge, some boomers are for those ages 65 to 69—a report that their organization
bolstering their bona ides higher rate than for every hires older workers who ofers annual prizes for older
through adult internships or younger cohort, says the have retired from other
embarking on a gap year for Bureau of Labor Statistics. irms. “Companies are adults who reinvent them-
grownups. trying to ind ways to utilize
The most important this part of the workforce,” selves and make a signiicant
Baby boomers will begin things you can do to remain says Jaye Smith, co-author
to turn 70 next year, and employable are keep up or of The Retirement Boom. contribution to society. “But
they want to put of—and retrain your job skills, net- “Workers that return after an
come out of—retirement work like crazy and dem- extended break bring energy, they provide a strong sense
in droves. Already, 1 in 4 onstrate familiarity with creativity and conidence.”
retirees returns to work modern tools via a Twitter of purpose and can be a path-
within two years, according account or LinkedIn pro- Many older workers al-
to the Rand Corp., a policy- ile, say experts. But those most intuitively understand way to a whole new act.”
research nonproit. Many things aren’t always enough. the value of rebooting. “Most
others would like to stay at “Older workers bring matu- who retire and come back These doors are wide
work longer or return, but rity, leadership, energy and do it as a matter of choice,”
“unretiring” can be diicult. wisdom to a company,” says says Nicole Maestas, a se- open. The Peace Corps woos
Ashok Vaswani, CEO of per- nior economist at the Rand
For one thing, about half sonal and corporate banking Corp. “This is not some hap- volunteers past age 50 with
of all workers leave the labor at Barclays. “But sometimes less response to an unex-
force earlier than planned, they still don’t ind jobs.” pected inancial problem. its Response program, of-
largely due to health or
caregiver issues, reports the To harness the talents fering shorter commitments
Employee Beneit Research of older workers, Barclays
Institute. And though many launched a program called for professionals with at
employers pay lip service Bolder Apprenticeships
to hiring older workers, in September. The bank least 10 years of experience.

About 7% of Peace Corps vol-

unteers are age 50 or older.

Teach for America, another

ind-yourself favorite among

the young, encourages expe-

rienced volunteers as well. ILLUSTRATION BY CHI BIRMINGHAM FOR TIME

Grads and undergrads make

up a stable-to-declining por-

tion of its volunteer force.

Meanwhile, those with pro-

fessional experience have

grown from 17% to 27% of

volunteers since 2011. You

are never too old to get a

fresh start. □

30 TIME December 28, 2015–January 4, 2016

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‘APPLIED COLLABORATIVELY, AI COULD HELP BRING ABOUT SOLUTIONS TO THE WORLD’S MOST COMPLEX PROBLEMS.’ —PAGE 44

GEOPOLITICS

The absence of international leadership
will shape a tumultuous 2016

By Ian Bremmer

DURING THE ANNUAL ASIA-PACIFIC LEADERS’ President of the United States felt he had more to
summit in Manila in November, President Obama gain chatting with private citizens than engaging
sought out two people for a pressing conversa- his counterparts. And he was probably right.
tion. Not Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose
forces were busy changing facts on the ground in In a world of emergencies, leadership matters—
Syria, nor Chinese President Xi Jinping, whose and in 2016 it will become unavoidably obvious
global economic strategy is paying of for China. that the world lacks leadership. The days when
Instead, he turned to a pair of entrepreneurs: Jack heads of the G-7 industrial powers like the U.S.
Ma, the CEO of the Chinese e-commerce giant and Germany controlled geopolitics and the global
Alibaba, and Aisa Mijeno, an ecological innovator economy are gone for good. The international
from the Philippines. Obama gave a short speech group of today is the expanded G-20, which is
and then spent nearly half an hour moderating a much larger—including important emerging pow-
panel discussion with two businesspeople. ers like China and India—yet agrees on much less.
The result might be called a G-zero world, a global
Obama’s explicit message was that government caucus whose members don’t share political and
and business must work together to solve energy economic values or priorities. They don’t have a
and environmental problems. The unspoken mes- common vision for the future. Many years in the
sage was louder: in a hotel illed with leaders, the making, a G-zero world is now fully upon us.

ILLUSTRATION BY BRIAN STAUFFER FOR TIME 33

The View Geopolitics

For all the rhetoric from U.S. presidential can- THE ECONOMICS The Middle East:
didates, Washington can no longer even pretend to OF ISIS
play global police oicer, because public support Ground zero for G-zero
isn’t there for any action that might require long- ISIS takes in more
term commitments of U.S. troops and taxpayer dol- than $1 million per NOWHERE IS THE G-ZERO PROBLEM MORE
lars. You may get a majority to say it’s time to send day in extortion and pressing than in the Middle East, where the only
ground troops after ISIS, but Obama knows that taxes. Salaries of thing worse than the region’s authoritarian lead-
support won’t last. The ugly response to the mas- Iraqi government ers are the chaotic states that lack leadership al-
sacre in San Bernardino, Calif., suggests that U.S. together. In Iran, conservative hard-liners, fearful
public reaction to a major terrorist attack will not employees are that the lifting of sanctions will open the country
be as uniied as it was after 9/11. And even if such taxed up to 50%; to Western inluence and awaken the appetite of
an attack compelled the U.S. to act, it may have to companies may have the nation’s young people for change, will assert
act alone—there are now too many important in- their contracts and themselves. In Saudi Arabia, anxieties over Shi‘ite
ternational players with the political and economic revenue taxed up to Iran’s rise, growing U.S. indiference, royal-family
self-conidence to simply ignore Washington’s lead. 20%. That revenue rivalries and depressed oil prices will drive over-
base will help ISIS reaction to the country’s many perceived threats
That’s true even of allies. Karl-Theodor zu Gut- survive even if its oil and intensiication of Saudi support for proxy wars
tenberg, former German Defense Minister, warns business is crippled. on multiple fronts across the Middle East.
of an erosion in transatlantic trust, exacerbated
by the U.S. presidential-election season. The cam- Bloodshed in Yemen—the worst crisis the world
paign anthem will be “forget Europe,” he says— isn’t talking about—will continue. In Iraq, the
and it won’t come only from Donald Trump. Shi‘ite-dominated government will export more
oil but do nothing to persuade the country’s mi-
This doesn’t mean the U.S. is in decline. The nority Sunnis to turn on ISIS, an essential step for
economy continues recovering, while the Ameri- reclaiming the Sunni-dominated land ISIS con-
can capacity for innovation is as healthy as ever. At trols. The U.S., Russia, Turkey, France and others
a moment when even staid Europe faces serious will continue to bomb Syria, and it will continue
security risks, the western hemisphere remains the to have little military efect. Huge numbers of Syr-
most peaceful and stable region in the world. ian refugees in Lebanon and Jordan will sorely test
stability in both countries—witness the thousands
Yet abroad, America’s once predominant inlu- of miserable asylum seekers trapped on Jordan’s
ence is fading fast. In the Middle East, the most northeastern border.
powerful terrorist organization in history occu-
pies large sections of Iraq and Syria. Russia has ISIS will extend its international reach—though
paralyzed Ukraine and is bombing unchecked in not its territory in Syria and Iraq, which likely has
Syria. China is challenging U.S. military power in peaked—thanks to more than $1 billion in inancial
East Asia and Washington’s institutional power reserves, its mastery of social media and encrypted
everywhere else. Obama now relies on sanctions, messaging, and its ability to attract a steady supply
drones and cybercapabilities to advance U.S. of new followers around the world. The terrorist
interests—blunt tools that do little to build the con- group accomplishes this not simply by staging or
sensus needed to solve the world’s most complex even just encouraging spectacularly violent attacks
problems. Few U.S. oicials, even the most hawk- abroad but by convincing others that it can build
ish, are able to make a clear case for the role they an Islamic empire with borders drawn by Muslim
think the U.S. can and should play in a new world. supermen, not Western politicians.

Europe can’t help—its leaders are too busy cop- There is reason to fear we will see many more
ing with migrants, maneuvering around populist terrorist attacks in 2016, because the entrance
political rivals, working to keep the U.K. in the E.U. of Turkey into Syria’s conlict will make it that
and helping Greece ind long-term inancial foot- much more diicult for young recruits to join ISIS
ing. China won’t ill the G-zero vacuum—it’s more in Syria—inviting them instead to carry out at-
active on the international stage, but only in pur- tacks where they live. In the Middle East, as no-
suit of narrow national interests. Beijing is fully where else, ights are intensifying and no leader
occupied with an anticorruption drive of historic is willing to accept the full price that comes with
ambition, a bid to revitalize Communist Party rule leading the massive eforts required to restore
and a high-stakes economic reform process. something like order.

Who will take the lead in destroying ISIS, sta- ISIS: REUTERS; CHINA: AP
bilizing the Middle East, containing the low of
dangerous weapons, mitigating climate change and
managing international risks to public health? No
one. The world’s many wildires will burn hotter
in 2016, because no one believes he can aford the
costs and risks that come with putting them out.

34 TIME December 28, 2015–January 4, 2016

Europe: A weakened West China: Growing strong
but refusing to lead
FIVE YEARS AGO, EUROPE’S LEADERS FACED A
single dominant threat in the euro crisis. Thanks to CHINA KEEPS THE BEST NEWS FOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
the resilience of Europeans, Germany’s determina- GROWING is that East Asia will remain relatively quiet in
tion to keep things on track and the pledge from 2016. Political leaders in China, Japan and India
Europe’s central banker to stabilize the euro zone Even though the are preoccupied with all-important domestic
by any means necessary, that crisis was resolved. country’s growth has economic-reform plans and can’t aford conlicts
slowed, the Chinese that are bad for business. Compared with Europe
But in 2016, Europe will face a much wider va- and the Middle East, East Asia should remain
riety of problems—without the unifying sense of economy is more calm—unless North Korea surprises us.
crisis needed to forge collective action. Greece’s than 25 times bigger
inancial troubles will enter a new phase this year than it was in 1990. China will ind other ways to challenge the
as its leftist, Syriza-led government struggles to dominance of the U.S. Beijing will use its $3.4 tril-
navigate creditor demands, opposition attacks and By 2025, China is lion in foreign-exchange reserves to inance am-
frustrated voters. Spain’s government must nego- expected to have bitious alternatives to Western-led institutions
tiate away secessionist threats from Catalans. A 221 cities with over like the International Monetary Fund and World
skeptical Britain will vote on its European future. a million inhabitants Bank. China will become a new lender of irst re-
and 23 cities with sort for governments of developing countries that
By themselves, each of these risks is manage- more than 5 million don’t want to meet U.S. demands. U.S. allies like
able. Add a million more migrants—and a pub- Britain and Germany, eager to diversify their eco-
lic worried about the terrorism risks they may people. nomic partnerships and proit from China’s rise,
bring—and Europe’s political ground will shift fur- will continue to follow China’s lead, extending the
ther toward the populist right. At particular risk prolonged battle over whether global commercial
are hopes for maintaining Europe’s open borders. standards are decided in Beijing or Washington.
Many European governments have imposed new
border controls, albeit on a temporary basis. Fur- But a stronger China still has no interest in ill-
ther terrorist attacks could expand this trend. ing the vacuum created by the G-zero order. Bei-
jing won’t ight ISIS or help rebuild Syria. It won’t
At the center of Europe’s attempts to manage help ease tensions between Russia and the West.
these challenges is Angela Merkel. The indispens- China is the world’s only government with a truly
able regional leadership she has provided makes global foreign policy strategy. But that strategy in-
Merkel an exception to the regional chaos. But de- volves solving China’s problems—not the world’s.
spite her popularity and the lack of a real alterna-
tive to her within Germany, Merkel is vulnerable Still, it’s a strategy that speaks to some leaders’
to those who see refugees as future jihadis. G-zero interests. “A strong China ofers economic oppor-
threatens even this extraordinary leader through tunities for the U.K.,” says Hague.
the potential breakdown of open Europe. “The eu-
phemism of the coming year will be cooperation,” THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF GOOD NEWS IN 2016.
warns Guttenberg, who was Defense Minister
under Merkel. Europe will see a “manifestation of Crucial, long-awaited reforms will continue to ad-
a culture of the least common denominator.”
vance in India and Mexico, two of the world’s most
There is growing division between U.S. and Eu-
ropean leaders. Transatlantic ties depend on com- important emerging markets. A strong group of
mon values. While those ties are durable, values
tend to matter less during emergencies—which leaders in East Asia will keep rivalries in check.
leaves countries looking out for themselves. “It is
in Britain’s interests for there to be a healthy rela- Policy corrections in Brazil and Argentina will
tionship between the U.S. and the E.U.,” says Wil-
liam Hague, the former U.K. Foreign Secretary. But begin to pay dividends, even if the process of get-
Britain is prepared to make its own way in a G-zero
world. “A declining Europe-U.S. relationship would ting there is ugly. Countries in sub-Saharan Af-
be undesirable but not disastrous for the U.K.”
rica and Central Asia will proit from competi-
One piece of good news: Putin will probably
prove less confrontational in 2016. He has efec- tion among the U.S., China, Europe and Japan for
tively won the stalemate in Europe, and he believes
he can parlay his power play in Syria into an end much-needed infrastructure investment.
to sanctions. But a contracting economy, rising in-
lation and lower oil prices will further darken the But none of these good-news stories will help
mood of Russia’s people in 2016—and that could
send Putin in search of foreign scapegoats. resolve the G-zero dilemma. Only a global emer-

gency on a scale greater than anything we’ve yet

seen can accomplish that—the sort of crisis that

forces a new level of global cooperation based on

the world’s true balance of power. It might be a

war, a inancial crisis, a public-health threat, cata-

strophic terrorism, an environmental disaster.

Though that crisis is approaching, we’re unlikely to

get there in 2016. When it inally comes, it will be

the biggest story of our time. □

35

The View Geopolitics

Human rights: The refugee low won’t
stop in 2016—unless the world gets
serious about ixing fragile states

By David Miliband

THIS WAS THE YEAR THE GLOBAL MOVEMENT OF humanitarian and economic tool. A study by the
people leeing conlict inally burst onto the
world’s political agenda. With 20 million refugees International Rescue Committee, of which I am
crossing borders in 2014 and 40 million people
displaced within their own countries, 1 in every the CEO, showed that $1 distributed in Lebanon
122 people on the planet has been forced from
their home by conlict. THE NEW delivered $2.13 to the local economy. Yet cash
EXODUS
Yet for all the complaints about asylum seek- provision makes up less than 6% of the global
ers in the richer parts of the world, more than More people around
8 in 10 refugees are actually living in developing the world have been humanitarian budget. Before services are deliv-
countries—and that burden is wearing those coun-
tries down. We know what a failed state is; the displaced from ered, we should ask whether cash could do the
disasters of Libya and Yemen come to mind. But their homes than
there are a larger number of states where the deliv- at any point since job better.
ery of basic services or the enforcement of the rule the end of World
of law have been compromised by a lack of state ca- War II. In 2016 the Third, we need economics, not just social ser-
pacity, will or legitimacy, or simply the sheer scale number is unlikely
of the problems. They are fragile states, and they to fall—especially vices. It is scarcely believable that the World
are the human and development challenge of 2016. in the Middle East,
where the ongoing Bank’s work is limited in Jordan and Lebanon—
Fifty fragile and conlict states account for war in Syria will keep
20% of the world’s population but 43% of the ex- pushing refugees with over 2 million refugees between them—
treme poor (living on less than $1.25 a day). Nearly toward Europe,
two-thirds of fragile states have failed to meet especially Germany. because they are oicially middle-income coun-
the Millennium Development Goal of halving ex-
treme poverty by the end of 2015. And just a ifth tries. International institutions created in a
have secured universal primary education for
their children. diferent time need to be adapted to the modern ILLUSTRATION BY BRIAN STAUFFER FOR TIME; RENMINBI: GETTY IMAGES

A New Deal for fragile states—agreed to in geography of poverty and need.
2011 in the South Korean city of Pusan and en-
dorsed by over 40 countries, development part- The World Humanitarian Summit taking place
ners and civil society—produced a set of prin-
ciples guiding policy and practice in fragile and in May is a chance to bring these issues to the
conlict-afected states. But while the principles
behind it are good, the New Deal has not gotten fore. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has
the global traction it needs to drive improved so-
cial and economic outcomes at the national and rightly called for innovation and determination.
international levels.
The focus needs to be on fragile places—or they
There are three immediate priorities. First,
aid. U.N. humanitarian appeals are currently only will become the failed places of tomorrow. With
50% funded. The result is misery and the on-
ward low of refugees—especially into Europe. head as well as heart, we should respond to their
The United Kingdom recently announced that
half its overseas-aid budget of around $18 billion call for a renovation of our eforts to help them.
would in the future be devoted to helping fragile
and conlict states. Other donors need to follow After all, in a global village, when we help them
this example.
we help ourselves. □
Second, host populations as well as refugees
need help. With 59% of refugees living outside Miliband is the president and CEO of the Inter-
of camps among local communities in cities national Rescue Committee
like Beirut, it is essential to ofer broad-based
help. The best route is to use cash vouchers as a

36 TIME December 28, 2015–January 4, 2016

globalization, which should generate faster conver-

gence through increased connectivity, greater op-

portunities for technology transfer, more mobile

and available capital, declining poverty and better

education.

What is to be done now? Clearly each country

must get its own house in order, and in the near

term much of the needed housekeeping could

be painful as countries reduce existing imbal-

ances and adjust to low commodity prices and

lost competitiveness on top of a slowing economic

cycle. But decisive adjustments, along with steps

that bolster the supply side of the economy—

well-functioning and inclusive labor markets,

openness to trade and investment, support for

innovation—are needed to build the base for faster

growth and convergence.

It is also becoming clear that the international

community needs to reexamine what changes can

be made to the global system itself, to mitigate the

cyclical slowdown, reduce market volatility and

tackle the widespread decline in potential growth.

Let’s consider upgrades in three broad policy

areas: irst, to prevent capital from lowing “up-

hill” from poorer to richer countries, there could

be greater international eforts to provide a more

stable system of capital lows with better collec-

tive insurance. With stronger facilities that pro-

Global inance: How to vide contingent funding, like those we have at the
reinvigorate emerging economies
IMF, poorer countries would have less need to
By Christine Lagarde and David Lipton
insure themselves against crisis by placing funds

in international reserves rather than investing

at home.

To make capital lows more supportive of in-

vestment and growth, there could be eforts to

WITH RECESSION IN BRAZIL AND RUSSIA AS WELL stem volatile, often disruptive short-term lows
as slowed growth in China, some economists have
wondered whether the inancial crisis that started and to encourage more equity rather than debt-
in the U.S. in 2008 and resurfaced in Europe in
2011 is about to hit emerging-market economies A NEW creating investment. Financial institutions may be
in 2016. The question matters because emerging- CURRENCY
market economies have been a vital engine of promoting too much short-term capital low while
growth around the world over the past 15 years. Beginning Oct. 1,
2016, the IMF tax systems are encouraging too much debt.
The reality is likely to be less dramatic but more will add the
complex. Major global events—like declining com- And third, to reverse the slowing of emerging-
modity prices, a stronger dollar and the normal- Chinese renminbi
ization of U.S. interest rates—will afect emerging to its Special market growth, there could be a greater sharing of
markets diferently, so we are likely to see a wide Drawing Rights
range of economic performance. What makes this technology. We urge a rethinking of the balance
all the more complex is that many countries are currency basket,
facing not only near-term economic challenges a sign of China’s between intellectual-property protection and tech-
but also long-term structural growth decline. In- economic power.
ternational Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts imply nology dissemination, as well as renewed eforts to
that emerging and developing countries are con-
verging with advanced-economy living standards remove obstacles to the kind of foreign direct in-
at less than two-thirds the pace we expected a de-
cade ago. Some key countries are not on track to vestment that encourages knowledge transfer from
converge at all. That is at odds with the promise of
rich nations to poorer ones.

Reinvigorating growth in emerging markets is

important for many reasons, not the least to bet-

ter tackle global challenges such as inequality and

climate change. Individual countries will need to

maintain stability and promote growth on their

own, but the global system itself must be retooled

to better support investment and growth. □

Lagarde is the managing director of the IMF; Lipton
is the irst deputy managing director of the IMF

37

The View Geopolitics

China: Managing new challenges
at home, while approaching a
greater role in the global order

By Kevin Rudd

2016 IS THE YEAR OF THE MONKEY. ACCORDING A CHANGING neighbors. Beijing also wants to avoid any easy pre- ILLUSTRATION BY BRIAN STAUFFER FOR TIME; FLAG: REUTERS
to Chinese astrological tradition, monkeys are sup- ECONOMY text for another debilitating round of public “Sino-
posed to be intelligent, quick-witted, clever, ambi- phobia” during the U.S. presidential campaign.
tious and adventurous. All of these attributes will China’s rapid growth
be in high demand as China negotiates the com- has been built mostly Globally, we will continue to see a more coni-
plex policy challenges before it in the year ahead. dent, activist Chinese foreign and economic policy.
on manufacturing Xi’s unprecedented rounds of summits in Europe,
China will be preoccupied with intense prepara- and export Asia, Africa and Latin America relect a percep-
tions for its 19th Party Congress in 2017. Other than tion of China as the indispensable global economic
President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang, the industries. But power. So too with the lurry of large-scale Chinese
ive other members of the existing Politburo Stand- President Xi Jinping economic initiatives, like the Asian Infrastructure
ing Committee—China’s top leaders—will reach is moving to shift the Investment Bank, the BRICS Bank and the “One
retirement age. There will also be a large turnover country’s economy Belt, One Road” initiative. Beijing will use 2016
in the wider Politburo and the 205-strong Central to consolidate these programs rather than launch
Committee. Xi has inherited a leadership structure to one built more anything new on a similar scale.
very much determined by his predecessors, so he around services
will use the Party Congress to consolidate his po- Within the existing multilateral system, how-
litical authority even further. The nationwide mass and domestic ever, China is likely to become increasingly
campaign against corruption of the past three years consumption. forward-leaning, leaving behind Deng Xiaoping’s
is likely to conclude, although anticorruption ef- That will be more doctrine of “hide your strength, bide your time,
forts will remain a core priority, central to Xi’s vi- sustainable over never take the lead.” The West, rather than attack-
sion of preserving party legitimacy. the long term. ing Chinese multilateral activism, might consider
welcoming it. It may help strengthen the existing,
Xi will also strengthen the leadership’s eco- deeply challenged institutions of global governance,
nomic team, given the imperatives of China’s like the U.N., the IMF, the World Bank, the WTO
reform program and the strong global economic and the G-20. Otherwise, the gap between the grow-
headwinds the country faces. Despite some breath- ing demand for efective global governance and its
less Western commentary, there will be no Chi- supply will widen. And that doesn’t help anybody. □
nese economic implosion in 2016. China calculates
that it needs at least 6% growth to provide the job Rudd is the 26th Prime Minister of Australia and pres-
numbers, increases in income and poverty reduc- ident of the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York
tion required for social stability. We’ll see declines
in manufacturing exports, state investment and
property, yet slow but gradual increases in pri-
vate consumption and more-rapid growth in the
domestic-services sector and IT are likely to put
that 6% igure within reach. Just to make sure, Chi-
nese leaders are embarking on not-insigniicant
iscal and monetary expansion—a sign they will do
whatever it takes to stay above the 6% threshold.

In its own neighborhood, China appears to have
concluded that recent policies in the East and South
China Seas have produced more problems than
they are worth. The country is embarking on a new
diplomatic ofensive in the region, one designed
to lower the regional temperature, hence high-
level diplomacy with Japan, Korea, Vietnam and
the Philippines, together with Xi’s historic meet-
ing with Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou. China’s
strategy is designed to challenge the underlying ra-
tionale for the U.S. to “rebalance” to Asia, relected
in U.S. naval deployments in the South China Sea
and deepening security engagement with Chinese

38 TIME December 28, 2015–January 4, 2016

Storytelling isn’t always positive. In the midst

of the chaos of Iraq and Syria, ISIS masterfully

tells its story of blood-soaked vengeance against

supposed oppressors in their own lands and

those from the West. Its stories sow the seeds of

unspeakable atrocities from Raqqa to Paris.

Entrenched and compromised interests spin

the iction that science is more divided than

united, and they sow seeds of uncertainty on

issues of unquestionable priority: namely, the

survival of our species on this planet.

Political hopefuls, for high oice and other-

wise, create elaborate narratives that they them-

selves don’t believe.

Stories matter.

In 2016 and beyond, those who wish to cre-

ate a better world will have to make storytelling

the center of their eforts, not an afterthought. It’s

clear that economic and military might will always

be the key levers of statecraft. But more than ever

before, swift and dramatic change is being driven

by powerful narratives that crisscross the world at

the speed of a click or a swipe.

Underlying this change is the empowerment of

ordinary people: citizens, mothers, sons, all of us.

Once, consumers had limited points of access to

information and content, and powerful state and

commercial institutions guarded the gates. That

Media: Storytelling—both iction and time is over.
noniction, for good and for ill—will
continue to deine the world In 2016, from Lhasa to Tehran to Odessa,

By James Murdoch people will continue to seek and ind forbidden

things. In this connected world, the game is up.

Censors cannot hide, and their victims have

decided, and are empowered, not to take it any-

more. Italo Calvino had it right in If on a Winter’s

Night a Traveler: “In the decree that forbids read-

WE HAVE EXAMPLES OF TRANSFORMATIVE ing there will be still read something of the truth
storytelling all around us.
that we would wish never to be read.”
In the U.S. and elsewhere, advocates for same-
sex marriage told deeply personal stories of the As the example of ISIS proves, the state’s loss
bond between human beings, setting the stage for
legal and legislative victories celebrated under the THE DIGITAL of control of narrative is not an unequivocal bless-
banner “love wins.” CALIPHATE
ing. But it shouldn’t be feared. We should embrace
The TV news series Satyamev Jayate (Truth ISIS has developed
Alone Prevails), hosted by the Bollywood star an unparalleled the clash of narratives in a free and ungovernable
Aamir Khan, has proved to be a phenomenon in ability to use the
India. It has moved a nation and is credited with global conversation. Over the next 12 months, this
changing laws through its sensitive yet unlinch- tools of social media
ing treatment of some of that country’s most en- to spread its toxic duel will be joined—and the outcome is unfortu-
trenched taboos, from female infanticide to oi- message online.
cial corruption. nately up in the air.

Years before the election of President Barack We will have to see if 2016 will be a year in
Obama, tens of millions of Americans experi-
enced their irst black President on the thriller which stories of anger, grievance, resentment
24. They challenged their preconceptions about
same-sex couples through Modern Family and and scapegoating of the “other” are ascendant, or
grappled with the paradoxes of the war on drugs
by watching The Wire. whether stories of the power of love, empathy and

hope for a better future rule the day.

All sides will have generally equal access to the

tools and platforms needed to tell their stories.

People themselves will ultimately decide the win-

ners and losers. In this age of narrative, the stakes

have never been higher. □

Murdoch is the CEO of 21st Century Fox

39

The View Geopolitics

Technology: Inventive
artiicial intelligence will
make all of us better

By Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen

THE NEXT GENERATION OF ARTIFICIAL the patient, the business and the employee. As a
intelligence (AI) promises to have an impact as big
as the mobile revolution or the Internet revolution society, we should make use of this potential and
before that. The positive opportunity before us is
virtually boundless—but for AI to meet its vast po- ensure that AI always aims for the common good.
tential, it will require the right approach.
Second, AI research and development should be
AI is already revolutionizing our lives. It can de-
tect patterns that humans can neither see nor an- open, responsible and socially engaged. As we con-
ticipate. English speakers can make phone or video
calls to speakers of Hindi or Chinese. But the next tinue developing AI, new questions will continue
leap will be Inventive AI—machines trained on a
given data set that can tackle a wider range of prob- to arise, and we will need to answer them collabor-
lems. As society grapples with the increasing vol-
ume and complexity of information, more-lexible atively, including everyone from engineers and sci-
AI will play a key role in helping us. Eventually it
will be possible to give a computer unstructured AN AI THAT GETS entists to philosophers and activists. In particular,
data—say, spreadsheets used to manage business BETTER
records—and receive quality advice on improving those whose industries will change as a result of AI
operations. All it will take is a training data set that Inventive AI like
is large enough, computers that are big enough and one of DeepMind’s will need to be part of this global conversation.
algorithms that are adaptable enough. algorithms can learn
to play many 1980s Third, those who design AI should establish best
Imagine an adaptive learning system that ana- Atari video games
lyzes medical records for hospital patients. AI could practices to avoid undesirable outcomes. Is a system
sort through a patient’s entire medical history in through simple
an instant, ofering relevant information quickly to repetition, modifying doing what we need? Are we training it using the
doctors—preventing a negative reaction to a medi- its tactics for each
cation, for instance. AI could also highlight a pat- game to improve its right data? Have we thought through the way any
tern of risk factors and allow the medical team to score without ever
achieve better results through preventive care and being told the rules— system might yield unintended side efects—and
early detection of disease. These beneits might not something older AIs
result from speciic questions a doctor posed to the like IBM’s Deep Blue do we have a plan to correct for this? There should
AI. The software would do it proactively, saving the
doctor’s time—and maybe saving lives. couldn’t do. be veriication systems that evaluate whether an AI

But though computers can assist us, they are system is doing what it was built to do.
not like us. We can make value judgments, think
introspectively and, in truth, compare apples We are building tools that humans control. AI
to oranges. Our wealth of experience gives us
creativity—but it also makes us vulnerable to ac- will relect the values of those who build it. Ulti-
cumulating conscious and unconscious biases. In
contrast, AI systems today receive their “training” mately, our dream for AI is to give people more
using very speciic collections of relevant data.
These data sets can be large but are inherently choices about how they live their lives. Under our
much more limited than human experience. That
can be a plus—AI does not have the complex emo- control, it can take the drudgery out of work and
tions that guide human decisionmaking, so it could
avoid most if not all of these inherent biases. free up many more hours for creative pursuits. And ILLUSTRATION BY BRIAN STAUFFER FOR TIME

Based on the work of DeepMind, which is in- applied collaboratively, AI could help bring about
volved in AI research, we believe that makers of AI
should adhere to the following principles. First, AI solutions to the world’s most complex problems.
should beneit the many, not the few. In practical
terms, AI has the potential to help the doctor and In the end AI is technology, and technology is

44 TIME December 28, 2015–January 4, 2016 just a tool. It’s up to us to use that tool well—to

harness its power to improve our lives, and the

lives of people everywhere. □

Schmidt is the executive chairman of Alphabet Inc.;
Cohen is the director of Google Ideas

IN THE ARENA ACQUIRING you’re too dangerous to ly, you’re too
TARGET dangerous to buy a gun, period.”
Hillary Clinton is strong on
ghting ISIS—but Democrats ‘Promising to But the speeches are also studded
carpet bomb with passages that would make Bernie
don’t seem to care Sanders supporters cringe. She favors
until the embedding U.S. troops with the Iraqi
By Joe Klein desert glows army. She favors an expanded target set
doesn’t make in the air war. She has gone where no
HILLARY CLINTON HELD A TOWN MEETING IN SALEM, N.H., Republican has ventured in criticizing
on the December evening after Donald Trump made nearly you sound the Saudis, who, she told the Council on
everybody crazy by proposing that Muslims be barred from strong. It Foreign Relations, “need to stop their
entering the U.S. The event was well attended and enthusi- makes you citizens from directly funding extrem-
astic. Grandmothers—at least, women of a grandmotherly sound like ist organizations, as well as the schools
age—stood on their chairs, cheered and took pictures of the you’re in and mosques around the world that have
candidate. At a moment when Republican pyrotechnics get over your set too many young people on a path to
almost all the media attention, it is important to remember radicalization.”
that Clinton’s core constituency is as passionate as Trump’s. head.’
But very diferent. And she’s been tough on Iran too.
HILLARY “There will be consequences for even
After criticizing Trump briely, with a stray shot at Marco CLINTON, in small violations” to the nuclear deal, she
Rubio, Clinton went straight to questions. Dozens were asked. Minneapolis, told a Brookings Institution audience.
But there was not a single one about radical Islamic terrorism, “Our approach must be distrust and
not a single one about the need to rethink national security in Dec. 15 verify.” Indeed, she slipped and said she
an era when the jihadis have switched tactics and are attacking wouldn’t rule out a “nuclear” response
low-security targets—theaters and restaurants in Paris, Christ- if Iran violated the deal. Justice Stephen
mas parties in San Bernardino. Breyer, sitting in the audience, corrected
her: “a military response,” he suggested,
What were the questions about? Genetically modiied using the appropriate term of art; Clin-
food. Climate change. Gun control. Whether ExxonMobil sup- ton quickly redacted herself.
pressed information about carbon pollution. Voting rights.
Mental health. Student loans. Immigration (family preserva- THIS IS NOT to say that Clinton has been
tion, not border control). Preserving Social Security and Medi-
care. Taking care of veterans (with the assumption that veter- running a fabulous campaign. In some
ans are victims of the military-industrial complex).
ways, she’s been as cowardly on domestic
Now, some of these are important issues. But the Demo-
crats’ unwillingness to think, or ask, about the single most im- policy as she’s been bold on national de-
mediate threat to our country was stunning—or perhaps, all
too predictable. There is as little nuanced thought about na- fense, caving to her party’s special inter-
tional security among left-liberal Democrats as there is about
border control among Trump supporters. ests on trade, education and government

Several times Clinton tried to steer her answers toward the reform. And she did make some serious
topic, but the crowd resisted. And it occurred to me that Clin-
ton might actually be taking a risk with the Democratic base foreign policy mistakes as Secretary of
when she talks about national security, which she has been
doing quite a bit recently. She has given three meaty speeches State, including her support for regime
since the Paris attacks—tough, detailed proposals for ighting
ISIS, keeping the heat on Iran and protecting the homeland. change in Libya. But given the dovish
In sum, they represent a more comprehensive efort to deal
with these issues than attempted by all the Republican can- cast of her party, Clinton’s persistent,
didates combined, although Jeb Bush comes close and—he’ll
hate me for saying this—his positions on these issues aren’t all and intelligent, speeches on national se-
that diferent from hers.
curity have been the equivalent of her
Clinton’s speeches have been partisan. “Shallow slo-
gans don’t add up to a strategy,” she said at the University of husband’s Sister Souljah moment
Minnesota on the afternoon of the Republicans’ Las Vegas
SCOTT OLSON—GETTY IMAGES debate. “Promising to carpet bomb until the desert glows in 1992—a direct challenge to the
doesn’t make you sound strong. It makes you sound like
you’re in over your head.” And she’s been quick to ex- party’s base. And the Republi-
coriate the Republicans for their failure to include
gun-control measures in their antiterrorist rants: “If cans, who seem to think that

merely mentioning Clinton’s

name is enough to discredit any

policy she favors, may be in for a

general-election surprise. □

45





JEH JOHNSON
TACKLES THE NEW
TERRORISM

plus

LGBT RIGHTS
The movement’s
growing pains
THE ECONOMY
Growth or
recession?
PAUL RYAN
His big plans to
ix the House

PHOTOGRAPHS BY MIKE MCGREGOR FOR TIME 49

Homeland security,
ISIS and the ight
against fear

-(+-2+16216((67+( :$5 217(5525&20(+20(%<0$66,02&$/$%5(6,

ESTEEMED IN THE THREE YEARS before Tashfeen Malik and Boston Marathon bombers to the San Bernardino
LINEAGE her husband killed 14 people in a shooting rampage shooters, jihadists inspired from abroad have found
in San Bernardino, Calif., on Dec. 2, the U.S. Depart- that the Constitution protects not only rights but
Johnson’s ment of Homeland Security (DHS) had at least three also plots—a kind of legal human shield. Conspira-
grandfather opportunities to identify her as a threat. During that cies that take shape deep in our society dare us to
Charles time, Malik sent messages to friends discussing vio- abandon our values in pursuit of them.
Johnson lent jihad and martyrdom, according to the FBI, and
was a noted on multiple occasions DHS reviewed her applications For many Americans, the result is an ampliied
sociologist and for a “iancé visa” and green card. But the department fear of both terrorists and tyrants. The country is
the first black never saw the private messages and never lagged petriied of radical jihadists but also convinced
president of her as dangerous. that government intrusions on personal rights are
Fisk University almost as dangerous. Liberals see encroachment
It turns out DHS wasn’t even looking, thanks in on Fourth Amendment protections against un-
part to the civil-liberties concerns of the very man warranted searches; conservatives see a constant
responsible for ensuring that such threats never threat to the Second Amendment’s right to bear
make it to U.S. shores. As early as 2011, DHS of- arms. That in turn means easy access to weapons
icials were blocked from accessing even pub- for those on the terrorist no-ly list, limited surveil-
lic social-media sites, let alone private messages, lance of even public speech and a rising atmosphere
for fear they would waste time at work or endan- of fear that enables the clumsiest of bomb hoaxes
ger the security of government computer systems, to shut down the entire Los Angeles school system
according to a memo obtained by MSNBC. When for a day.
Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson was
asked to end the policy for some oicials who were All this explains why Johnson, 58, has possibly
charged with reviewing visa applications in early the hardest job in America. A high-powered lawyer
2014, he declined, citing privacy concerns, accord- and former fundraiser for Barack Obama, he is a
ing to a former senior department oicial inter- cautious, sometimes political pragmatist on the
viewed by ABC News. Instead, Johnson says, the front lines in the war on terror. He says he under-
agency started a pilot project to include partial re- stands the new threat and the country’s fear of it
views of social media, adding, “We consult a vari- and is always mindful of the need to balance se-
ety of diferent law-enforcement and intelligence- curity with the principles of freedom. “When you
community holdings.” see a new phase in a global terrorist threat, when
you see a new front being opened, there’s an under-
A lot has changed in the world of terrorism since standable anxiety,” Johnson says, sitting in a bland
9/11. Fifteen years ago, social media didn’t exist conference room in the sprawling Ronald Reagan
and the most dangerous terrorists hatched elabo- Building in downtown Washington. To answer that
rate and spectacular plots abroad. Now terrorist anxiety, he must convince Americans that the fa-
networks like ISIS crowdsource jihad, advertising mously dysfunctional DHS can protect them with-
on Twitter and Facebook and urging their followers out sacriicing their civil liberties. So far, it’s not
to strike innocent civilians around the globe. The going well.
enemy lives peacefully in nearby neighborhoods
and hides behind core values of family, free speech, Johnson has had a unique view of the chang-
religion, gun ownership and privacy. From the ing terrorist threat. During Obama’s irst term, he
served as Pentagon boss Robert Gates’ top lawyer,

50 TIME December 28, 2015–January 4, 2016

PREVIOUS PAGES: CONTOUR BY GETTY IMAGES; THIS PAGE: CLIFF OWEN—AP becoming known as a hawk on the hard question of be able to say to ourselves that our eforts should no Johnson
when it was legal to go after al-Qaeda suspects away longer be considered an ‘armed conlict.’” speaks with
from the battleields of Afghanistan and Iraq. (His the media at
answer: often.) Once, recalls a former senior mili- Johnson squirms a bit when reminded of the Washington’s
tary oicial, commanders sought permission to go speech today. “Clearly, those remarks in 2012 did Union Station
after a suspected al-Qaeda leader in a country in Af- not contemplate the environment we are in now,” before riding
rica. Johnson not only gave the legal green light for he says. What happened in the interim? ISIS. After Amtrak on the
the operation but suggested two other associates embracing the chaos of Syria to gain strength, the
whom the Special Forces should remove from the group swept back into its home base of Iraq in 2014. day before
battleield while they were at it. It was, says the of- Its battleield successes drew stepped-up military Thanksgiving
icer, “very unusual for the legal counsel to be that attacks from countries including the U.S., France
forward-leaning.” and Russia. In turn, ISIS attacks in 2015 killed more 51
than 1,200 civilians outside of Iraq and Syria.
Over the course of his four years at the Penta-
gon, Johnson approved dozens of such requests, ISIS’s savvy use of social media has turned the
including the operation that resulted in the death rising conlict with the West into a source of armed
of Osama bin Laden. The military’s success against recruits on the battleields of Iraq and Syria. More
al-Qaeda meant that after Obama’s re-election in ominously, its steady message of a god-sanctioned,
2012, the Administration could once again imagine apocalyptic confrontation between Islam and the
rolling back the extraordinary powers that George West has given rise to self-radicalized followers in
W. Bush pursued in the years after 9/11, and per- countries around the world who are almost impos-
haps even ending the war on terrorism. In Novem- sible to ind before they turn violent, a kind of ifth
ber 2012, with al-Qaeda on the ropes, Johnson told column for the Internet age.
an audience at Oxford University in England that
eventually the war on terrorism would end and its In his current job, Johnson inds himself charged
special provisions would need to be curbed. When with defending the U.S. against that threat: keep-
a suicient number of al-Qaeda leaders and opera- ing ISIS-trained foreign terrorists out of the coun-
tives had been killed or captured, he said, “We must try and ISIS-inspired domestic ones of U.S. planes
and trains. It’s hard. Every year the U.S. admits more
than 170 million travelers, and about 40 million

‘This new immigrants live in the U.S. Harder still is inding irst exposure to homeland-security issues came
phase terrorists among the country’s 330 million citizens when he was an assistant prosecutor in the U.S. at-
and permanent residents. A recent report by re- torney’s oice in Manhattan, where he tried high-
requires a searchers at George Washington University found proile cases, including one against a corrupt immi-
whole new that 71 ISIS followers have been arrested for sup- gration oicial. After returning to his law irm in the
approach to porting the group since March 2014, and the vast early 1990s and rising to make $2.6 million a year as
majority of them were U.S. citizens or permanent its irst African-American partner he served in the
counter- residents. “This new phase requires a whole new Clinton Administration and later became a big fun-
terrorism.’ approach to counterterrorism and homeland secu- draiser for Obama in 2008. He is sometimes men-
rity beyond the traditional responses,” Johnson says. tioned as a possible candidate for statewide oice,
Jeh Johnson, That means closer work with local law enforcement though he denies the ambition.
DHS Secretary and communities where threats may appear long be-
fore they are visible to federal authorities. The polished and conident persona Johnson
developed over his career serves him well when
Johnson’s immediate challenge is reforming an it comes to reassuring the public. Soon after the
agency that never came to grips with the mission it Paris attacks, he took to Amtrak on one of the bus-
was designed to accomplish in the irst place: stop- iest days of the year, walking the aisles and greet-
ping another 9/11 by groups like al-Qaeda. DHS is ing passengers. He’s turned relations with Con-
a motley accumulation of 22 diferent agencies, in- gress around after years of strained interactions
cluding Customs and Border Protection, the Coast with overseers. Delaware’s Tom Carper, the ranking
Guard and the Federal Emergency Management Democrat on the Senate Homeland Security Com-
Agency. Among the scandals Johnson has strug- mittee, praises Johnson for his “cool conidence.”
gled with on his watch are the prostitution and DUI
scandals at the Secret Service; the Transportation Public shows of steadiness go only so far when
Security Administration’s inability to spot bombs or the department he leads is as screwed up as DHS.
weapons on passengers or in checked bags; and a Colleagues in the Obama Administration point
morale funk that leaves DHS ranking last, again, in a out that for all his talk of counterterrorism, John-
recent survey seeking the best place to work among son is responsible for spotting bad guys, not bust-
19 big federal agencies. ing them—that’s the FBI’s job—and say he should
focus on DHS’s problems, not public appearances.
So far Johnson has proposed unremarkable re- “He’s got this facade where he’s a knight in shining
forms to ix the agency and address the threat. He’s armor who’s going to save the country, and behind
upped security at federal installations and boosted him there’s this organization that’s crumbling,” says
information sharing with state and local oicials. one national-security oicial.
Over the past year, he added new requirements to
the visa-waiver program, which allows citizens of But in a war that is partly about just how many
certain countries to enter the U.S. without prior values Americans are willing to sacriice in pursuit of
screening. After the DHS inspector general found the enemy, appearances matter. That’s especially true
that TSA missed potential threats 96% of the time when fear is outstripping the actual threat. The risk
at passenger checkpoints in airports, he reassigned Americans face from terrorism is extremely low: they
the head of TSA and imposed a 10-point plan aimed are vastly more likely to freeze to death or die falling
at ixing the problem. When ISIS claimed respon- down stairs, for example, than to become a victim of
sibility for downing a Russian airliner in Egypt a terrorist attack. Johnson thinks a calm public per-
on Oct. 31, Johnson imposed new restrictions on sona can help put the danger in perspective. “When
lights from some Middle Eastern countries. you explain to people what you’re doing,” he says,
“they will understand that in a free and democratic
Johnson’s hardest challenge, though, may be society, you cannot erase all risks.”
ighting America’s upsurge of fear. Late in the year,
he unveiled a tweak to the terrorist warning system The evolving nature of the threat is likely to push
that will provide bulletins on potential threats. But the feds into taking more-invasive steps. Both the
there’s no good playbook for the hand-holding part of Boston Marathon bombing and the San Bernardino
the job, and Johnson says he relies on a combination attacks involved family members (brothers in Bos-
of personal and professional history to guide him. ton, a husband and wife in California). These are
“networks” that are hard to crack. In the face of the
BORN IN NEW YORK CITY in 1957 to a respected ac- threat that has so quickly found sanctuary in the
ademic family, Johnson grew up in an aluent en- most protected corners of U.S. society, Johnson is
vironment and attended top schools, graduating still adjusting. Asked about the need to search so-
from Columbia Law School and joining a leading cial media in the wake of the San Bernardino at-
irm, Paul, Weiss. He married his childhood neigh- tacks, Johnson says he’s looking at more aggres-
bor and has two college-age kids, one of whom is sively scrubbing Facebook posts and Twitter feeds.
serving under him in the Coast Guard. Johnson’s The question is whether such deliberate caution will
reassure Americans or worry them even more. □
52 TIME December 28, 2015–January 4, 2016



th e year ahead in p
ower

Supreme january april
Court
watch 1/1 The Netherlands assumes the 4/4 The Bridgegate trial, featuring
presidency of the Council of the associates of New Jersey Governor
Rulings to look European Union for a six-month term Chris Christie, begins 4/10 Peru
for in 2016 1/12 President Obama delivers his chooses a new President to replace
inal State of the Union address Ollanta Humala 4/21 Britain’s
Fisher v. 1/16 Taiwan holds a presidential Queen Elizabeth turns 90 4/23 The
University of election 1/20–1/23 World Economic 400th anniversary of William
Texas Forum gathers leaders at its annual Shakespeare’s death 4/26 Baltimore
Afirmative meeting in Davos, Switzerland holds its irst mayoral primary
action 1/24 Portugal picks a new President election since 2015’s riots following the
death of Freddie Gray
Friedrichs february
v. California may
Teachers 2/1 Iowans vote in the irst U.S.
Association presidential caucuses 2/8 Chinese 5/2 Canada launches a reinstated
Unions New Year rings in the year of long-form census 5/5 London
the monkey 2/9 New Hampshire voters decide on a new mayor
Kansas v. Carr hosts the irst Democratic and 5/26–5/27 Japan hosts the Group of
Death penalty Republican presidential primaries Seven (G-7) summit
2/12–2/18 Pope Francis arrives in
Evenwel v. Mexico for the irst papal visit since june
Abbott 2012 2/17 Cities submit their vision
Voting rights for hosting the 2024 Summer 6/15 The annual Fortune 500 list is
Olympics 2/26 FIFA o cials meet released 6/20 The U.N. commemorates
Whole Women’s in Zurich to choose a new leader to World Refugee Day TBD British
Health v. Cole replace scandal-plagued Sepp Blatter Prime Minister David Cameron
Abortion TBD Cuba’s Raúl Castro will make an is aiming for a referendum on
oicial visit to Paris whether the U.K. should stay in
the E.U., but it could be pushed
march back TBD Australia expects to end
the long search for missing Malaysia
3/1 Voters head to the polls for Airlines Flight 370
Super Tuesday during presidential
primary elections or caucuses in 13 july
U.S. states 3/3–3/24 New Zealand
holds a referendum on changing 7/1 Slovakia assumes the
its lag 3/5 The College Board presidency of the Council of the
launches a revised SAT that no European Union 7/8–7/9 NATO holds
longer penalizes students for a summit in Warsaw 7/18–7/21 The
incorrect answers 3/31–4/1 The Republican Party chooses a
fourth Nuclear Security Summit presidential nominee in Cleveland
on preventing nuclear terrorism is held 7/25–7/28 The Democratic Party
in Washington meets in Philadelphia to select a
presidential nominee

august GETTY IMAGES (8)

8/9–8/16 The World Social Forum,
which gathers nongovernmental

54 TIME December 28, 2015—January 4, 2016

Who turns out? organizations and social-issues
advocates, meets in Montreal 8/25 The
(/(&7,216$5('(&,'('%<7+( 927(56 National Park Service celebrates its
: + 2 6 + 2: 8 3+ ( 5 ( $ 5 ( ' , ) ) ( 5 ( 1 7 100th birthday TBD Mark Zuckerberg
and wife Priscilla Chan open a private
7+(25,(6$%2877+(.(<72:,11,1* nonproit K-12 school in East Palo Alto,
Calif., that will o er free health care to all
By Michael Scherer students

LAVTOITNEO 23.3 m september

This expanding Eligible 20m 9/11 The U.S. marks 15 years since the
demographic Latino 2001 terrorist attacks 9/13 The
voted 71% for voters Jeb Bush and U.N. General Assembly convenes
Barack Obama in New York City for its 71st
in ’12. 10 Marco Rubio regular session 9/18 Russia holds
argue the GOP parliamentary elections several
Latino must make Latino months earlier than usual in a move
votes cast inroads to win. seen to beneit President Vladimir Putin
Fluent Spanish
0 and family roots october
’88 ’96 ’04 ’12 could help.
10/7–10/9 World Bank and IMF
MYOINUVOOTHRTEI&TY Obama’s margin Hillary Clinton annual meetings happen in
of victory in 2012 Washington 10/17–10/20 Habitat III,
Obama proved hopes to repeat the U.N.’s Conference on Housing and
twice that he among ... Obama’s success Sustainable Urban Development,
could get these by talking about convenes in Ecuador TBD Nobel
groups to the +23 gun control, Prizes are announced, including
polls. justice reform and the Nobel Peace Prize
18-to-29-year-olds college aid.
november
+62
11/4–11/5 China hosts its irst G-20
Nonwhites summit in Hangzhou, Zhejiang
11/7 Ghana holds its presidential
IN PERCENTAGE POINTS election 11/8 Nevada votes on
legalizing recreational marijuana and
EVAWNVHGOIETTLEEICAL Evangelicals Ted Cruz argues regulating it like alcohol 11/8 The U.S.
who voted that his hard-right picks a new President TBD President
Churchgoers Republican message will Obama becomes the irst U.S. President
are a reliable, bring the roughly to visit Laos when he attends the
though static, 22.0 m 23.5 m half of born-again Association of Southeast Asian Nations
core of the GOP 20.3 m Christians who (ASEAN) conference
base. don’t vote to the
’04 ’08 ’12 ballot box. december

BUSH MCCAIN ROMNEY 12/31 The minimum wage for New
York’s government and fast-food
NO-TVUORTNEOUT 106 m workers rises to $12 per hour in New
York City and $10.75 per hour elsewhere
Only 55% of 100m in the state TBD TIME names its Person
eligible voters of the Year TBD The U.S. is scheduled
cast a ballot in Donald Trump to begin drawing down troops in
’12, down from Afghanistan, reaching about 5,500
58% in ’08. Voting-age 50 cites ratings for by the end of 2016 or early 2017
population GOP debates
and his TV show Compiled by Julie Shapiro
who did The Apprentice to and Merrill Fabry
not vote argue he can turn

0 out those who
’88 ’96 ’04 ’12 tune out politics.

SOURCES: PEW; NEW YORK TIMES; UCSB; CORNELL UNIVERSITY

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Growing pains for the LGBT march

&$87,21$1'&21&(51 $021*$&7,9,676$)7(5$ <($5 2)%,*:,16
By Philip Elliott / Las Vegas

BY ALL MEASURES, 2015 WILL BE REMEMBERED much better in cities or states, either. Local conser-
as a banner year for LGBT rights in the U.S. The vatives, meanwhile, are preparing counterassaults
Supreme Court gave gays and lesbians the right to to mirror the one they led in November, when vot-
wed. Popular culture and public opinion continued ers in Houston stripped legal protections from
to embrace transgender identities and same-sex LGBT citizens. Their focus? A campaign featur-
relationships. Corporate advocacy beat back state ing the idea of predatory men loitering in women’s
religious-freedom laws that would have provided bathrooms. To top it of, there are emerging divi-
a defense for discrimination. And there are more sions among LGBT leaders on how best to main-
than 450 openly gay elected oicials currently tain the momentum and who should lead the next
serving across the country. stage of the efort.

But backers don’t expect the good news to con- Most agree that the ight will have to extend
tinue, at least in the short term. Donors, activists beyond Washington and state politics in the short
and LGBT elected oicials who gathered at the end term. Under current laws, many Americans can
of the year in Las Vegas to take stock of the move- still be ired from their jobs, evicted from their
ment were surprisingly grim on the prospects for homes or denied credit because of their sexual
2016. “We don’t have time to sit around and pat identity. But eforts by Oregon Senator Jef Merk-
ourselves on our backs,” said Aisha Moodie-Mills, ley and his allies to create new federal protections
the president and CEO of the Gay and Lesbian Vic- have not found a single Republican supporter in
tory Institute. “As we’re doing that, our opposition a Congress where the GOP calls the shots. “This
is running vile, hateful, nasty campaigns and get- Congress right now can’t keep their lights on, let
ting rid of basic human-rights protections.” alone pass the Equality Act,” says Chad Griin, the
head of the nation’s largest LGBT-rights group,
There are many good reasons for their pessi- the Human Rights Campaign. Instead, Griin is
mism, and none of them are simple. Washington laying the groundwork for after the 2016 election,
politics remains deadlocked, with Republicans un- assuming a Democratic President wins.
willing to back advocates’ next big goal: a law that
would make it illegal to ire, evict or expel LGBT The key to making inroads with the GOP, ac-
individuals because of who they are. Odds aren’t tivists believe, will be attracting new corporate

60 TIME December 28, 2015–January 4, 2016

A man holds a support, like the advocacy from businesses and
gay-pride lag
community groups that helped sink plans in In-
in San Fran-
cisco in 2008, diana and Georgia to make religion a legal justi-
when same-sex
marriage irst ication for discrimination. But some now worry
became legal in
that the corporate backing could ebb in the face
California
of renewed eforts to create religious carve-outs.

Georgia conservatives are aiming to try for new

legislation again in 2016, and the corporate ob-

jections have yet to publicly materialize again,

although business leaders have unveiled studies

that suggest the legislation could have an eco-

nomic impact as high as $2 billion each year. Such 7851,1*
7+(3$*(
inancial arguments, which were tried in Houston, 21&5,0(

may not be enough to override deeply held reli- A bipartisan group
of lawmakers in
gious beliefs. “There are limits to [how far] you Congress believe
they can pass fed-
can move the needle before religion steps in,” says eral reforms on
criminal justice in
Alex Wan, an openly gay member of the Atlanta 2016. Here are a

city council. few of the changes
on the table.
Identity politics is also starting to cause friction
Sentencing guidelines:
within the gay-rights movement itself. Activists
Decrease mandatory
have begun objecting to the fact that the move- sentences for nonviolent
drug offenses by people
ment is still largely led by white men of means and with limited prior records.

has not focused enough on transgender issues and Some 5,800 current
prisoners who were
inancially insecure populations. Groups are also convicted under guidelines
that treated crack
struggling with a funding shortfall, especially from differently from powder
cocaine could also get
low- and mid-dollar donors. “Marriage blocked shorter sentences.

out the sun because that was the thing that people Re-entry preparation:

who were otherwise inancially secure wanted,” Expand drug treatment,
education and job training,
said Nadine Smith, co-founder and CEO of Equal-
granting early release to
ity Florida. “The funding has dried up for what re- many who complete the

mains on the agenda.” programs.

But not completely. Even after the Supreme Juvenile justice:

Court’s ruling, the Human Rights Campaign still Limit the time juveniles in
federal prisons can spend
sold out its annual black-tie dinner in Washington.
in solitary coninement.
Software entrepreneur Tim Gill and his husband
—Maya Rhodan
Scott Miller plan to spend $130 million over the

next ive years on advocacy—on top of the $327 mil-

lion they’ve already given. “We can either be ideo-

logical purists or we can be pragmatic,” said Miller.

On the top of the list: continuing to win hearts

and minds in a country where 28% still think con-

FLAG: JUSTIN SULLIVAN— GETTY IMAGES; ILLUSTRATION BY PETER RYAN FOR TIME senting adult same-sex relationships should be il-

legal. “If merely passing a law meant that everyone

would behave a certain way, you wouldn’t need

police, you wouldn’t need judges,” said Victoria

Kolakowski, the irst openly transgender person to

serve as a trial judge in the country.

On the same night that Houston voters re-

scinded protections for LGBT citizens, a lesbian

mayor, Jackie Biskupski, was elected in Salt Lake

City, home of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-

day Saints. “Houston was a reminder of how far

we have to go. And Jackie’s election is a reminder

of how far we’ve come. And both of those realities

can exist at the same time,” said Kate Kendell, ex-

ecutive director of the National Center for Lesbian

Rights. Advocates expect the mixed signals to con-

tinue for a while. □

A California
home slides
down a hill
after erosion
due to rains
tied to El Niño
in March 1998

El Niño spells disaster EL NIÑO: VINCE BUCCI — AF P/GE T T Y IMAGES; SNOW: HBO; RIO: AP; K ARDASHIAN: REUTERS; GAUGE, SANDERS, QUAKE, STOCK MARKE T: GE T T Y IMAGES

7+(&/,0$7(3+(120(121 :,//%5,1*+($9<5$,1 72&$/,)251,$
$1'(;75(0( :($7+(5 $5281'7+(:25/'

By Justin Worland

3.6°F (2°C) The English translation sounds in the Paciic Ocean rise by an is on track to be the warmest on
innocuous—“the boy child”— average of at least 0.9°F (0.5°C) record, owing in part to the start of
The rise in but El Niño packs a wallop. The for three straight months. The this El Niño, and experts say 2016
sea surface climate phenomenon, which is warmer water changes how air will likely be even hotter.
temperature in expected to last through May, circulates around the globe,
some parts of promises a torrent of extreme altering day-to-day weather There will be some positive
the Paciic Ocean events, including drought patterns. During the fall, sea effects. Already the changing
that is driving and heavy rain, famine and surface temperatures rose weather patterns have led to
this El Niño looding. And climate experts more than 3.6°F (2°C) above more rain in parched California,
say this El Niño may become the baseline levels—enough to all which had been suffering a
strongest ever recorded. but guarantee that this El Niño record-breaking drought. But for
will be historic. the most part, this El Niño will
“It’s hard not to have a be deeply disruptive, especially
doom-and-gloom scenario,” The effects of El Niño vary to the people who can least
says Michael Glantz, an El Niño dramatically from place to afford it in countries like Ethiopia,
researcher at the University of place. Dry conditions that where a drought has contributed
Colorado Boulder. “There are cer- lead to drought tend to persist to food shortages, and Peru,
tain areas that get slammed, and in Southeast Asia, Australia where landslides could destroy
these places are in deep trouble.” and southern Africa, whereas neighborhoods.
torrential rain usually strikes
El Niño is a semiregular event, parts of North and South America. “You’ll feel the direct impacts
triggered when sea surface But while El Niño–related weather into the spring,” says Glantz.
temperatures along the equator events may differ with location, “For some countries, you’ll feel
temperatures will remain the indirect impacts for ive years,
consistently above average a decade.”
around the globe. The year 2015

62 TIME December 28, 2015–January 4, 2016