New_Scientist_2021-02-13

IS IT EVER OK TO EAT FISH?

The true toll of our enormous
appetite for seafood

KNOTTY PROBLEM

Breakthrough in
100-year-old math puzzle

AVI LOEB ON ALIEN LIFE

‘We need to be
more open-minded’

WEEKLY February 13–19, 2021

CORONAV I RUS SPECI A L

HOW TO GET
THE MOST OUT
OF YOUR JAB

Five things you can do to boost
how well a vaccine works

THE NEW VACCINES
ON THE BLOCK
WHY HOSPITALS ARE SAVING
SO MANY MORE LIVES

PLUS SPERM RIVALRIES / SCIENCE OF MAYO /
ANCIENT FACE CREAM / FAIRY CIRCLES /
ORANGUTANS INVENT NEW SIGNALS /
SPLAT CHEMISTRY / IT’S A SIN, REVIEWED

No3321 US$6.99 CAN$9.99

Science and technology news
www.newscientist.com

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This week’s issue

On the 36 Is it ever OK to eat fish? 46 Features
cover The true toll of our enormous
appetite for seafood “All the
Coronavirus special natural
8 How to get the most out 19 Knotty problem explanations
Breakthrough in suggested are
of your jab – five things 100-year-old maths puzzle things we’ve
you can do to boost how never seen
46 Avi Loeb on alien life before”
well a vaccine works “We need to be more
14 The new vaccines open-minded”

on the block 21 Sperm rivalries 51 Science
41 Why hospitals are saving of mayo 19 Ancient face cream
21 Fairy circles 18 Orangutans
so many more lives invent new signals 16 Splat
chemistry 32 It’s a Sin, reviewed
Vol 249 No 3321
Cover image: Andrea de Santis

News News ZSSD/MINDEN/NATUREPL.COM Features

12 Vaccine action 18 Ape communications Orangutans in captivity invent new gestures 36 Is it OK to eat fish?
Once you have had a The world’s appetite for seafood
coronavirus vaccine, how is exploding. It is time for a look
do you know if it worked? at whether that is sustainable

16 New Hope on Mars 41 Learning to treat covid-19
A United Arab Emirates Changes in how we deal with
spacecraft is on the way coronavirus cases are helping
many more people survive
18 Mothballed
Why the decline of butterfly 46 Avi Loeb interview
collecting is harming science The astrophysicist with an open
mind about alien spacecraft
Views
The back pages
23 Comment
We need a clear picture of the 51 Science of cooking
harms of gambling, say Naomi Make your own mayonnaise
Muggleton and Neil Stewart
52 Puzzles
24 The columnist Try our crossword, quick
Graham Lawton on net zero’s quiz and logic puzzle
impact on climate pledges
54 Almost the last word
26 Letters Why do some people like
Hunting for Dyson spheres gambling so much?

28 Aperture 56 Feedback
A baby lemon shark hides Spinach emails and large small
in a mangrove forest boulders: the week in weird

32 Culture 56 Twisteddoodles
It’s a Sin exposes the realities for New Scientist
of the early AIDS epidemic Picturing the lighter side of life

13 February 2021 | New Scientist | 1

Elsewhere
on New Scientist

Virtual event Newsletter IGOR FILONENKO/ALAMY Online

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Ancient garden Flowering plants may be far older than we thought

2 | New Scientist | 13 February 2021

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The leader

Your best shot

We can all control parts of this pandemic, even if it doesn’t always feel like it

FOR many people, one of the most we can influence our own course through tell you, as we explain on page 12.
unsettling things about living through the pandemic – beyond trying to avoid the Meanwhile, on the science front, a
the coronavirus pandemic is the feeling virus itself as best we can. We also look at
of lacking control – whether it is over our some of the many ways in which scientists great deal of progress is being made.
daily lives, the broader situation or both. and doctors have already made big strides Innovative new vaccines are in the
towards controlling the impacts of the
Vaccines promised a return to spread of covid-19. works (see page 14). These could not only
some kind of normality and, with work against new variants, but may also
it, a greater sense of control. “We may be able to affect how help solve other problems, such as the
our bodies respond to a vaccine global inequalities in accessing vaccines.
But this week has brought sobering by simple, everyday actions”
news: South Africa has decided to pause Then there are the insights that have
its roll-out of the Oxford/AstraZeneca On page 8, we examine how, as transformed how medics treat people
vaccine because of findings that it individuals, we may be able to affect how who have been hospitalised with covid-19,
doesn’t offer enough protection against our bodies respond to a vaccine by taking enabling health services to save many
the B.1.351 coronavirus variant first measures as simple as getting a good more lives (see page 41) than at the start of
detected in that country (see page 7). night’s sleep or taking more exercise. the pandemic. The interventions that have
brought this change may look obvious
That promised sense of more Once you have had a vaccine, is there now, but they certainly weren’t early on.
control may now seem to be any way you can know whether it is
slipping through our fingers. working? Well, there are tests that can It may not always feel like it, but people’s
actions are making a real difference
In this week’s issue, however, we throw in the fight against the coronavirus.
a spotlight on some of the ways in which We just need to keep on working at it. ❚

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News

People in South Africa
wait to receive the Oxford/
AstraZeneca vaccine

trials in the UK, Brazil and South
Africa concluded that a single
dose of the Oxford/AstraZeneca
vaccine is 76 per cent effective
at preventing symptomatic
infections between 22 and 90 days
after vaccination. A second dose
12 weeks or more after the first
boosts this to 84 per cent.

Unfortunately, results from one
small ongoing trial of the Oxford/

“Some other vaccines are
effective against the South
African variant. It’s not
all doom and gloom”

JEROME DELAY/AP/SHUTTERSTOCK AstraZeneca vaccine in South
Africa aren’t so good. The trial
South Africa vaccination began in June last year, and results
from the first months suggest
Vaccine put on hold that the vaccine was about 75 per
cent effective at preventing mild
South Africa halts Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine roll-out after evidence or moderate cases. There were no
it might not be effective against local variant. Michael Le Page reports severe cases. But once B.1.351
became the dominant strain,
ON 1 FEBRUARY, there was joy other coronavirus variants doesn’t rate, said Salim Abdool Karim, there was no significant difference
in South Africa when 1 million protect against mild or moderate who heads the country’s covid-19 between outcomes in the vaccine
doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca infections by B.1.351, said Shabir advisory committee. and placebo groups. It seems the
coronavirus vaccine arrived. But Madhi at South Africa’s University vaccine isn’t effective against
on 7 February, the health minister of the Witwatersrand during a Madhi pointed out that some B.1.351, but because the numbers
announced that the vaccine’s video conference revealing the other vaccines have already are so low – just 1750 volunteers
roll-out would be put on hold after findings. In a study of people given been shown to be effective and 42 symptomatic cases – there
a small study suggested that it a placebo in a trial of a vaccine against B.1.351. “It’s not all are huge uncertainties.
doesn’t prevent mild or moderate made by Novavax, the infection doom and gloom,” he said.
illnesses caused by the B.1.351 rate was just as high in people who The good news is that trials of
variant responsible for almost tested positive for antibodies The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines made by Novavax and
all covid-19 cases in the country. as in those who had none. vaccine is effective against most Johnson & Johnson show that
other variants, including the even though they are less effective
The finding is worrying, not That said, it is likely that the fast-spreading B.1.1.7 variant first against B.1.351 than against other
least because the B.1.351 variant Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine detected in the UK. Results from variants, they are both still around
is now spreading in several other does still protect against ongoing trials in the UK suggest 60 per cent effective at preventing
countries. The number of cases severe disease caused by the that the vaccine is 74 per cent mild or moderate infections.
detected outside South Africa B.1.351 variant, said Madhi. effective at preventing
remains very low in most places symptomatic infections Crucially, the Johnson &
but Austria has found nearly 300, South Africa might now roll out due to B.1.1.7, and 85 per cent Johnson one-dose vaccine is 85 per
leading the neighbouring German vaccines to 100,000 people and effective for other variants. cent effective at preventing severe
state of Bavaria to threaten to close then check the hospitalisation or critical covid-19 in all countries
the border. The UK has stepped up A separate analysis of ongoing where it is being trialled, with
testing to try to halt its spread. no decline due to B.1.351, said
Daily coronavirus news round-up Glenda Gray, also at the University
It also seems past infection by of the Witwatersrand.
Online every weekday at 6pm GMT
newscientist.com/coronavirus-latest The greater efficacy against
severe disease may be because
while B.1.351 evades antibodies
that prevent infection in the
first place, it cannot dodge
the immune system’s T-cells,
which help mop up infections. ❚

13 February 2021 | New Scientist | 7

News Coronavirus

Immunology

How to give your vaccine a boost

Lifestyle choices around the time of a vaccination can affect your immune response
to it. Helen Thomson explores how to give it the best shot at success

SIMPLE behaviour changes could were most stressed took the REUTERS/FABIAN BIMMER
improve how your body responds longest to build up a protective
to a covid-19 vaccination and the antibody response. Likewise, a People exercise study, the students’ stress levels
speed at which you are protected study of individuals looking after during the pandemic and social support as a group
from the coronavirus, evidence people with dementia showed in Hamburg, Germany had been fairly similar across the
from studies on other vaccines that the caregivers had a smaller academic year, suggesting that
suggests. These factors could be antibody response to flu shots stress, the body is overexposed their divergent vaccine response
so important that some scientists than non-caregivers, and their to these hormones, and immune was related to the exam period,
believe that ignoring them could immunity declined significantly cells are unable to respond and stress levels specifically
reduce the overall success of the faster six months later. normally. Such chronic stress around the time of vaccination.
covid-19 vaccine roll-out. creates a state in which we are more
Our immune system consists of at risk of infection and experience It may be unrealistic to ask
More than 130 million doses much more than just antibodies, low-level inflammation that can people not to be stressed during
of vaccine against covid-19 have but they are the best proxy for destroy healthy tissue. Stress can a pandemic, but another study
been administered at the time vaccine effectiveness in studies, also indirectly impact the immune may offer more practical advice.
this magazine went to press. But says Anna Whittaker, who looks system via harmful coping It showed that stress levels in the
not everyone who gets a shot at the effects of lifestyle factors on methods, such as smoking or 10 days after vaccination may be
will respond in the same way. immune health at the University drinking more, sleeping less or more influential for antibody
Although the majority will build of Stirling, UK. eating more unhealthy foods. response than stress in the prior
their immunity over the following two days, and that stress-related
weeks, a small percentage of Further findings support these But is it sufficient, let alone sleep loss may be a key culprit.
initial hints that stress affects our possible, to change our mood on
“We know so much about immune response to vaccines: the day of vaccination to improve Evidence for the benefits of
how stress affects vaccine in older people, a positive mood our response or is a more sleeping well around a vaccination
response, I’d be surprised if on the day of vaccination is long-term change in mindset comes from several directions. For
it didn’t apply to covid-19” associated with a higher antibody necessary? In Kiecolt-Glaser’s instance, healthy adults who sleep
response to a flu shot. less than 6 hours on average
people won’t become immune at
all (see page 12). But even among “There is now such a rich
those who do respond, factors literature of how stress can alter
such as age, sex, stress levels and your response to vaccines, that I’d
the time of day that you receive a be surprised if there were no such
vaccine may affect how strong that effect with covid vaccination,”
immunity is, how quickly you says Kiecolt-Glaser.
build it, how long it lasts and what
side effects you might encounter. Try not to stress

“While you can’t change your Although stress impacts the
age, there are psychological, immune system in a myriad of
social and behavioural strategies ways, one mechanism probably
that can substantially impact involves adrenaline and cortisol,
the immune system’s response to hormones that increase during
any vaccine,” says Janice Kiecolt- stressful periods. Both hormones
Glaser, director of the Institute have a number of functions in our
for Behavioral Medicine Research s0-called fight-or-flight response.
at Ohio State University. These include raising heart rate
and suppressing digestion and
Kiecolt-Glaser’s experiments the immune system – it is no
around 30 years ago were some use diverting precious resources
of the first to show the impact we to digesting food or getting rid
can have on our body’s response of a cold virus when you are in
to vaccination. During a stressful a life-threatening situation.
exam period, she and her
colleagues vaccinated medical Once the threat has passed,
students against the viral disease other mechanisms kick in to
hepatitis B. Those students who restore balance. But if you find
yourself in a state of perpetual

8 | New Scientist | 13 February 2021

helps the immune system build 15 mins the form of hugging is associated
a memory for the pathogens it
with a decreased risk of catching

has encountered through the of upper body workout can boost a cold. If you live with others,

day. There is some evidence the immune response to a flu shot she suggests that a few extra hugs

that exercise can increase the might not go amiss.

amount of deep sleep you get the Pressman also recommends

following night, as long as you organising extra video catch-ups

don’t do it just before bedtime. and talking to your family instead

To try and understand the of simply “doomscrolling” online

most influential time to sleep well, news. “Increasing your feelings

Aric Prather at the University of of being supported will not only

California, San Francisco, looked at reduce your stress, but can also

sleep over two weeks, pinpointing improve how you sleep at night,

sleep duration on the two nights both factors we know matter for

before flu vaccination as the best how vaccinations work for you,”

predictor of the immune response “Sleep duration on she says.

several months later. So while it the two nights before Something else you can
may not be possible to de-stress, flu vaccination is the
control is your alcohol intake. In

try to get some decent sleep best predictor of the December, Anna Popova, the head

around your vaccine. “It makes immune response of the Russian Federal Service for
a whole lot of sense to me,” says several months later”
Surveillance on Consumer Rights

Kiecolt-Glaser. “I had my vaccine Protection and Human Wellbeing,

yesterday and I really made sure advised Russians to quit alcohol

I slept well the last few nights.” two weeks before their first

coronavirus vaccine and to

Get friendly abstain until three weeks after

their booster shot. Alexander

Alongside stress and sleep, Gintsburg, head of the Gamaleya
you may want to try to mitigate
the effects of isolation. Even in National Center of Epidemiology
young, healthy people, feelings
of loneliness have been associated and Microbiology in Moscow,
with a lower antibody response to
per night before a hepatitis B flu vaccination. And having better which developed the Sputnik V
vaccination are less likely to social support or being married
mount an antibody response is linked to higher antibody vaccine, said that drinking alcohol
strong enough to fully protect responses to hepatitis B and flu
them from being infected, vaccination, while bereavement after getting a coronavirus jab
compared with people who is associated with lower such
typically sleep more than 7 hours. responses to the flu vaccine. can impair the immune response
The mechanism behind this is
Likewise, a study that has yet to probably related to the increased Having strong social and could even render the vaccine
be published in which people had levels of stress that can result support can increase
their sleep restricted for several from a lack of social support. antibodies after a vaccine ineffective. Contrary to Popova,
consecutive nights prior to
vaccination against hepatitis A While it might not be practical though, he recommended
had a lower antibody response for someone to make a bunch
compared with people who of new friends in the middle of refraining from alcohol for
were allowed to sleep normally. a pandemic, you can reconnect
and deepen the relationships you three days after each injection.
Slow-wave sleep, otherwise already have, says Sarah Pressman
known as deep sleep, is probably at the University of California, Currently, there is no advice
involved. During this type of Irvine. She and her colleagues
sleep, the brain stores long-term showed that social support in from the UK or US governments
memories and clears out chemical
junk that has accumulated during about drinking alcohol around
the day. It also creates a chemical
and hormonal environment that your covid-19 vaccination.

A spokesperson for the World

Health Organization said: “We

have no specific guidance on this…

but current evidence indicates

JOHN FEDELE/GETTY IMAGES that alcohol use has a clear

impact on immune responses

in high doses of consumption.”

Advice is at the discretion of

national authorities, the

spokesperson added. >

13 February 2021 | New Scientist | 9

News Coronavirus

The effect of heavy alcohol use – ANDREW MILLIGAN/POOL/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
six units in one sitting for women
and eight for men – on the People in Edinburgh, UK,  non-runners. And women who is a known analgesic. Kate Edwards
immune system’s response to receive their coronavirus used an exercise machine in the at the University of Sydney in
other kinds of vaccination is well vaccines 45 minutes before flu vaccination Australia says recent evidence
documented. Heavy drinking had a higher antibody response shows that pain at the site of
before and after a vaccine disrupts As it takes about two weeks for an a month later than those who vaccination and subsequent side
immune cell function, which can immune response to develop after did no exercise. effects like swelling, reduced
decrease the body’s ability to vaccination, four weeks “gives appetite and feeling unwell are all
defend itself from a virus. a bit of a buffer zone”, he says. Exercise triggers a transient decreased by regular workouts.
increase in signalling proteins Kiecolt-Glaser adds that exercise
What about a tipple here and On top of all that, make sure called cytokines that interact might also help counter general
there? A study in macaques you are getting enough exercise. with all the immune cells. Weight fatigue, which is one of the main
shows that moderate alcohol Not only will this improve your training and other forms of side effects associated with
consumption – the equivalent in health more generally, helping resistance exercise also cause tiny covid-19 vaccines.
people of up to two units a day – to minimise stress and reduce tears in muscle, which are thought
actually appears to create a more risk factors like obesity and to activate the immune system in Clock-watchers
robust response to vaccination diabetes that can worsen covid-19 anticipation of these tears letting
using a member of the virus symptoms, but exercise is also in possible pathogens. Meanwhile, you may have read
family that causes smallpox in intimately involved with your that the time of day you receive
humans. Macaques that drank body’s ability to form an adequate These effects are generally your vaccine could influence
moderately produced slightly response to a vaccine. less pronounced in younger your response. This comes from a
more antibodies and other adults, perhaps because their study that examined the immune
immune cells in response to Several studies support this. For immune systems are already response to flu or hepatitis A
the vaccine, compared with instance, people who already have more effective. But in one study, vaccine given in the morning or
macaques that drank no alcohol. an active lifestyle over the age of young, healthy adults who the afternoon. Men vaccinated in
62 have higher antibody responses performed a 15-minute upper the morning exhibited a stronger
Christopher Thompson, a to flu vaccination than those body workout before receiving a antibody response to both
biologist at Loyola University who are sedentary. People who flu vaccine saw a stronger immune vaccines than men who got their
Maryland, says it is difficult to received a tetanus vaccination response than a control group vaccine in the afternoon. No
pinpoint exactly how drinking after completing a marathon had who rested before their shot.
might impact your immune a higher antibody response than
response to the covid-19 vaccine. One final benefit is that exercise
This is complicated by the fact that
the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna
vaccines are mRNA-based, a
technology that hasn’t been used
for large-scale vaccination before.

“Women who exercised
45 minutes before a
flu shot had a higher
antibody response later”

Based on available data, he
suggests that moderate alcohol
consumption is unlikely to have
much of an effect, so if you are an
occasional drinker, you probably
don’t have to change your lifestyle.

However, binge drinking will
almost certainly decrease the
vaccine’s efficacy and should
be avoided for four weeks after
each injection, says Thompson.

10 | New Scientist | 13 February 2021

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difference was seen in women. Out of your hands
The underlying mechanism
Some factors that affect our immune response to vaccines are beyond our control
behind this effect is unclear, but
the researchers are investigating SHUTTERSTOCK/DOCTERK Sex during the first week of life varied considerably among the
the hypothesis that it may be creates an adequate immune studies and it is too early to say
related to rhythmic fluctuations The evidence is largely response in only 30 to 70 per how your gut microbes might
of hormones that affect the consistent on this: overall, cent of infants, but giving it affect covid-19 vaccination.
immune system and may differ women tend to have higher after 4 weeks of age leads to
in men and women. antibody responses to most immunity in nearly all infants. Prior infection

Whittaker, who led the study, vaccines than men, creating a Vaccine responses diminish in Good news for those who
says that it was indicative rather stronger immune response to older people, whose antibodies have already recovered from
than definitive, and that timing dengue, hepatitis A, rabies and also wane more rapidly after covid-19: immunity may last
hasn’t yet been studied with any smallpox vaccination, among at least six months, with the
of the covid-19 vaccines. others. Given the early stage 4 weeks body mounting a fast and
of covid-19 vaccine roll-out, it effective response to the
“Having a vaccine in the isn’t yet clear whether we will The age after which a coronavirus upon re-exposure,
afternoon or night is unlikely see a similar sex difference in polio vaccine works best according to a study last month.
to reduce the efficiency of your response to these shots.
immune system to be as poor receiving vaccines. One reason Might this mean you also
as having no vaccine at all,” she Age for this is that the thymus, where get a more effective response
says. “Given the urgency and virus-destroying T-cells mature, to the vaccine? It is hard to say.
scale of the pandemic, the Probably the most well- begins to degrade in old age.
most important thing is to get researched factor here is age. People who have already
vaccinated as soon as possible. Newborn babies produce low Microbiome encountered tetanus, for
Perhaps when we have more levels of antibodies in response instance, tend to have a higher
answers in the future and the to vaccines, and the antibodies It is early days, but the make-up immune response after getting
situation is less urgent, then they passively acquired from of your gut bacteria could play a booster vaccination than
adjusting timing of vaccination their mother during pregnancy a role. Some small studies have people who get the shot with
is something that could be done.” can interfere with vaccine shown that prebiotics and no prior infection.
response, although it isn’t well probiotics, which are known to
There are few definitive answers understood why this might be. affect our microbiome, might Likewise, people who have
as to what behaviours might improve the immune response naturally encountered members
affect the success of the covid-19 The optimal age to start to vaccination, including for of the flavivirus family, such as
vaccination drives, and this is vaccination differs depending diphtheria, hepatitis A and flu. the virus that causes West Nile
understandable, says Thompson. on the pathogen you are disease, have a higher antibody
“There was not enough time to protecting against. For instance, However, the type used and response to vaccines for other
assess all of the social, family giving the oral polio vaccine how long they were taken for flavivirus diseases, such as
and medical histories of each dengue fever.
patient [in the covid-19 vaccine YULIIA CHYZHEVSKA/ALAMY
trials] and correlate that with We might see something
immunological outcomes. similar with covid-19, but we
The vaccine companies were don’t yet have data on this.
tasked to make a safe, effective What we do know is that the
vaccine as quickly as possible. immunity someone gains from
So this is where their resources having had an infection varies
were focused.” from person to person, and both
natural and vaccine-induced
However, others say it is vital to immunity can differ, so it is
now look at our prior knowledge important to get vaccinated even
of how our behaviour has affected if you have already recovered
other kinds of vaccination. from the virus. ❚
“Past evidence would suggest
that not addressing these factors The jury is still out as to whether
could reduce the overall success prebiotic and probiotic foods
of the vaccine roll-out,” says help with the immune response
Kiecolt-Glaser. ❚

13 February 2021 | New Scientist | 11

News Coronavirus

Vaccines

How to tell if your vaccine worked

Some tests for covid-19 antibodies can show if a vaccine has given you immunity

Clare Wilson

TO TACKLE the covid-19 pandemic, VOISIN/PHANIE/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY The false positive rate is lower, No vaccine response
we need the most effective at around 2 per cent.
vaccines we can get. But even A blood test being used Even the best vaccines leave
the best vaccines don’t work in to test for covid-19 Current commercial tests give 5 per cent of vaccinated people
everyone. How do you know if antibodies only a yes/no answer – they don’t susceptible; for some vaccines,
yours has worked? quantify antibody levels, which that figure is more like 30 per
to know if a vaccine has had an tend to wane after a natural cent. But it is unclear why.
All of the vaccines in use effect on your immune system. covid-19 infection. Nor do they
against the coronavirus can give any indication of how Previous research on diseases
cause side effects, including a sore Some antibody tests that are powerful antibodies are against such as influenza suggests many
arm, fever, chills, headache and used to detect natural coronavirus the different coronavirus variants. possible factors. Age, sex,
nausea, usually in the first two infections can also be used to nutritional status, gut microbes
days after a jab. detect antibodies made in Long-term testing and the state of the immune
response to vaccines three weeks system may all play a role. In the
These are more common after after a shot. Antibodies don’t tell the whole case of covid-19, we know very
a second dose, and in people story about immunity. We have little, says John Tsang at the US
who have already been naturally Most tests look for antibodies other parts of our immune Center for Human Immunology
infected with the coronavirus, that recognise the virus’s outer system, including memory in Maryland. “It’s a complicated
according to data from the spike protein, which the virus B-cells – the cells that make issue.” Unexpectedly, two
Covid Symptom Study on nearly uses to latch on to cells in the antibodies, but can’t be detected factors that usually reduce
36,000 people in the UK who had body, so they can identify by an antibody test – and vaccine efficacy – being older
the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. people who have had a natural T-cells, which kill virus-infected and being male – don’t appear
infection or a vaccine. Indeed, they cells directly. to be at work this time, he says.
While side effects show your can’t distinguish between them.
immune system is reacting to the But some identify antibodies Tests for T-cells are in But baseline immune status
virus, the absence of such signs recognising a molecule called development by companies probably matters. People with
doesn’t mean the jab has failed to the nucleocapsid protein, which such as UK-based Indoor chronic inflammation generally
work. Even with the second dose, isn’t contained in the vaccines, Biotechnologies and German firm respond worse to vaccines.
only half of people in the UK study so wouldn’t detect the immune Qiagen. They could shed light on Obesity can also be a factor, as
had a sore arm and one in five had response in vaccine recipients. the body’s long-term response and it causes chronic inflammation,
a broader effect like fever. “People help us know how often people says Tsang.
And no test is perfect. Antibody will need covid-19 booster shots,
“Rapid finger-prick tests tests have up to a 10 per cent says Maria Oliver at Indoor Notably, clinical trials in
could help us get back to rate of false negatives, telling Biotechnologies. lower-income countries, where
normal life, once we get someone they have no antibodies volunteers may be exposed to
out of this critical phase” to the virus when they do, At the moment, any tests, higher pathogen and parasite
according to a review of using whether for antibodies or T-cells, loads, have lower vaccine
should not be worried if they don’t such tests in people two to four are being used either for research efficacy rates. Recent exposure
have a reaction,” says Deborah weeks after a proven infection. or personal interest, not as proof to common-cold-causing
Dunn-Walters, chair of the British of vaccination. Countries such coronaviruses could also
Society for Immunology’s covid-19 as Sweden and Denmark are influence the response. A
task force. developing digital vaccination covid-19 vaccine may simply
passports their residents could use re-activate the immune
No matter what, it is crucial not to prove they have had a covid-19 response to the cold rather than
to behave as if you are immune to vaccine prior to travelling, but this setting up a new one, reducing
the virus after a vaccine, says Paul would involve a vaccine certificate, effectiveness. Graham Lawton
Morgan at Cardiff University in not blood tests.
the UK. It takes two to three weeks get out of this critical phase when
for a vaccine to start taking effect. Rapid finger-prick tests for there’s so much virus around”,
Even after three weeks, vaccines antibodies against the coronavirus says Morgan. “But at the moment
won’t stop all infections, only could in future be used at places it’s more important to treat
reduce their severity and number like airports. They wouldn’t prove everyone who’s immunised
in the population. someone is immune to the virus, as susceptible, and a vector
but would show they have had the of transmission to others.” ❚
It still isn’t clear why some vaccine or a past infection.
people catch the coronavirus after
being vaccinated (see “No vaccine Such antibody tests could have
response”, right). But there is a way a role “in the fullness of time, if we

12 | New Scientist | 13 February 2021



News Coronavirus

New vaccines

Tomorrow’s vaccines

The world needs new vaccines to beat nasty coronavirus variants, overcome delays
and solve global inequality. Graham Lawton investigates what’s in the pipeline

THE race to develop vaccines genome from scratch, and The two-shot vaccine is CLOCKWISE FROM TOP LEFT: VAXART; REUTERS/CHINA DAILY; REUTERS/KAI PFAFFENBACH; CODAGENIX/SERUM INSTITUTE OF INDIA PVT LTD
against covid-19 got off to a flyer, introduces genetic changes that in phase I/II trials, with plans
but with dangerous new virus weaken the virus. The enfeebled for testing in children. From top left, clockwise:
variants, stark inequalities virus can replicate sluggishly and Vaxart’s pills, CanSino
in access to vaccines and few stimulate the immune response, Inovio: DNA, not RNA Biologic’s child-friendly jab,
vaccination options for children, but doesn’t cause disease. The CureVac’s RNA vaccine,
the world still needs all hands on team believes that the genome is Two of the first crop of covid-19 Codagenix’s nasal spray
deck. Last week, a virtual meeting so heavily modified – it has 283 vaccines – made by Pfizer/
run by the New York Academy of mutations compared with the BioNTech and Moderna – use Tübingen, Germany. Both of
Sciences called The Quest for a original virus – that there is no messenger RNA (mRNA), which is the existing RNA vaccines for
COVID-19 Vaccine showcased the risk of it reverting back to being injected into muscle cells. The cells covid-19 use mRNA that has been
most promising new candidates. dangerous. “We call it death by then translate the RNA’s genetic chemically modified so that it can
a thousand cuts,” says Coleman. code and make viral proteins that evade the defences of the innate
Codagenix: A nasal spray stimulate an immune response. immune system, which degrades
One advantage of this foreign mRNA on the (usually
So far, all approved covid-19 approach is that the immune Both vaccines provide around correct) assumption that it is
vaccines have been injectable. system encounters the entire 95 per cent protection against from a virus. Modification is
Another option is a nasal spray, virus, so mounts a broad response, severe covid-19. But the technique carried out by adding synthetic
says Robert Coleman, CEO of potentially allowing it to be has downsides, not least that the nucleotides, the building blocks
biotech company Codagenix, more effective against variants, mRNA has to be kept blisteringly of RNA, that aren’t found in nature.
in Farmingdale, New York. although this is yet to be tested. cold during distribution and has
a short shelf life once unboxed. However, these modifications
Codagenix’s technology uses a The vaccine is administered dampen innate immunity. This is
live, but weakened, version of the in a single dose dripped into the That is where DNA can
coronavirus that causes covid-19 nose. It is currently in phase I outperform mRNA, says
to provoke an immune response. trials (see “Trial phases explained”, J. Joseph Kim, CEO at Inovio
This approach makes the company right). The vaccine will also be Pharmaceuticals, in Plymouth
the black sheep of the vaccine tested on children, says Coleman. Meeting, Pennsylvania.
community, admits Coleman.
“They are the most efficacious Valneva: A whole, Inovio has synthesised a DNA
form of vaccine, they are single inactivated virus version of the coronavirus’s spike
dose, they provide broad and protein gene – which is made of
A vaccine developed by Valneva RNA in the actual virus – and
“A vaccine in pill form is in Saint-Herblain, France, leans inserted it into circles of DNA
in development that could on past successes by containing called plasmids. These are blasted
be delivered by post. The inactivated, whole virus, which into the skin using a reusable
vaccine comes to you” cannot replicate but still induces “gun”. The DNA is taken up by
an immune response. skin cells and transcribed into
robust immunity, but most mRNA, which is then translated
people consider them to have Conventionally, such viruses into “massive quantities” of
safety risks.” are inactivated using chemicals spike protein, says Kim, eliciting
or ultraviolet radiation. The a strong immune response.
The reason? Conventionally, inactivated virus is then purified,
such vaccines are produced by a concentrated and mixed with DNA vaccines don’t require
trial-and-error process in which a substance called an adjuvant, frozen storage, and have a one-year
the virus is grown in animal cells which boosts the response of the shelf life at room temperature and
until it acquires enough mutations immune system. It is a venerable up to five years in a refrigerator.
to make it harmless to humans. technology and commonly Inovio’s vaccine only contains DNA
used in many flu vaccines. and water, so is also less likely than
Viruses in such vaccines some other vaccines to provoke an
can occasionally revert back to They are exceptionally safe, allergic reaction. Inovio’s two-dose
the dangerous type and start says Thomas Lingelbach, vaccine is in phase II trials.
circulating among people, Valneva’s CEO, so the vaccine
setting off new waves of disease. could be given to vulnerable CureVac: Natural RNA
populations such as those
However, Codagenix at risk of an allergic reaction Another twist on mRNA vaccines
synthesises its coronavirus from other types of vaccine. is being developed by CureVac in

14 | New Scientist | 13 February 2021

the first phase of the immune CureVac’s vaccine is in phase III by post. “The vaccine comes Trial phases explained
response and is vital to drive trials. The UK says it will buy to you,” says Tucker.
adaptive immunity: antibodies 50 million doses if it is approved. PRE-TRIALS: Studies in the lab
that learn to recognise the virus Vaxart’s pill contains a PHASE 0: Studies in animal
and the white blood cells called Vaxart: A vaccine pill weakened human adenovirus models of the disease
T-cells that destroy it. called Ad5 loaded with genes from PHASE I: A drug/vaccine is tested
The campaign to vaccinate the coronavirus – both the spike in a small number of people to
CureVac uses mRNA built from  everyone is a race against time, protein and the nucleocapsid evaluate safety and dosage
naturally occurring nucleotides, especially as more dangerous protein, which forms the virus’s PHASE II: A drug/vaccine is
stabilised in a different way. variants of the virus emerge. shell – plus an adjuvant. The studied in a larger number of
This induces a strong innate According to Sean Tucker, tablets are designed to break people to assess how effective it
immune response as well as an chief scientific officer of biotech down in the small intestine, is and any further safety issues
adaptive one, says Stefan Mueller company Vaxart in San Francisco, stimulating an immune response. PHASE III: A study in hundreds or
at CureVac. one rate-limiting step is getting thousands of people to confirm
people to a vaccination centre Results of a phase I study phase II results, assess side
The company is also developing and injecting them. His solution announced at the meeting show effects and compare the drug to
a portable mRNA printer, in is to eliminate the needles. that the pill elicits a response already approved medications.
collaboration with Tesla, to rapidly from T-cells in the bloodstream The drug is then submitted
manufacture mRNA. These Vaxart is at the early stages of and antibodies in the lining of the for regulatory approval
printers could be taken to where developing a covid-19 vaccine in nose. However, it didn’t produce PHASE IV: Monitoring of the
the vaccine is needed and used pill form that could be distributed antibodies in the bloodstream, drug in the general population
to produce vaccines on demand. raising questions as to its potential
efficacy. This news caused the GCVI: Vaccinating the world
company’s share price to crash.
However, Tucker points out that As the World Health Organization
the study met its stated goals and warns, the pandemic won’t end
says the company will press on. until the whole world is vaccinated.

CanSino Biologics: Peter Hotez at Baylor College of
A child-friendly jab? Medicine in Houston, Texas, and
his colleagues have now set up
Getting news out of China’s the Global Coronavirus Vaccine
leading vaccine programmes, Initiative (GCVI) to get covid-19
run by the companies Sinovac vaccines to the world’s poorest
and Sinopharm, has proved people. They have a vaccine in
difficult. But one Chinese phase II trials in India, and it is
company has revealed its hand. “about as straightforward and
CanSino Biologics, in Shanghai, simple a vaccine as you can
is developing a vaccine similar imagine”, says Hotez. It consists
to the Oxford/AstraZeneca one. of a vital bit of the spike protein,
grown in transgenic yeast and
CEO Xuefeng Yu told the mixed with an adjuvant.
conference that the vaccine is
in phase III trials. The vaccine This type of vaccine has a great
has already been administered track record and is similar to a
to more than 150,000 Chinese common hepatitis B vaccine. Such
military personnel with no vaccines cost about $3 for two
reported ill effects, although there doses. Experience suggests that
is no efficacy data because there it will be suitable for children.
are so few cases in China, says Yu.
The GCVI will seek emergency
As part of a phase II trial in use authorisation in India within
Tiazhou, Jiangsu province, months and is negotiating with
30 children aged between 6 and manufacturers in Africa, Latin
12 were given two shots. Yu says America and the Middle East. ❚
the firm is now analysing safety
and immunology data.

13 February 2021 | New Scientist | 15

News

Space exploration

A new Hope for Mars

The United Arab Emirates’s orbiter aims to chart the Martian atmosphere in detail

Leah Crane

MARS is getting an injection of observers, and we get to see test it on Earth because if we day. Hope, on the other hand,
Hope. An uncrewed craft of that what’s happening, but we do did, we could have damaged the will circle in a way that allows
name is the United Arab Emirates’ not interact in real time.” spacecraft, so we could only test it to get a total picture of the
first mission to another world it for a few seconds.” Even the planet every nine Martian days –
and, as New Scientist went to The spacecraft’s delayed small manoeuvres that the craft including every spot on the
press, was due to enter orbit signals make the mission nerve- has performed on its way to Mars surface at every time of day.
around the planet on 9 February. wracking, says Omran Sharaf only required the thrusters to fire
The mission aims to build the at the Mohammed Bin Rashid for a minute or less. The spacecraft carries three
most complete picture of the Space Centre in Dubai, another main scientific instruments that
Martian atmosphere so far. programme manager. “Firing the Once in orbit, Hope will provide will allow it to observe Mars’s
thrusters for 27 minutes non-stop us with an unprecedented view atmosphere in wavelengths
“The team has prepared as well is something we haven’t done of Mars. The six other active craft from the infrared into the far-
as they can… to reach orbit,” said before,” he says. “We couldn’t orbiting the planet follow paths ultraviolet. “For the first time, the
Sarah Al Amiri, chair of the UAE around the equator which line up world will receive a holistic view
space agency and the science lead The Hope spacecraft with its rotation in such a way that of the atmosphere,” says Sharaf.
for the mission, during a press should give us a new they can only see any particular
conference late last month. way to observe Mars area of the surface at one time of The goal is to study how layers
of Martian air interact with one
That preparation is crucial – it ALEXANDER MCNABB/MBRSC another at different times of day
takes 11 minutes for a signal from and year. This will help us answer
Hope to reach Earth, so the entire the long-standing question of
operation to enter orbit will be on how gas escapes from Mars’s
autopilot. If anything goes wrong, atmosphere into space, a process
the probe can deal with various that keeps the planet cold and dry,
problems by itself during the rather than warm and damp as it
27 minutes in which the thrusters may once have been.
will fire to put it into a stable orbit.
If Hope enters orbit safely,
“By the time we see the start the team will spend two months
of the burn, it’s already almost testing the craft and its scientific
halfway complete,” said Pete instruments before starting to
Withnell at the University of take measurements. “Hopefully
Colorado Boulder, a programme by September 2021 we will have
manager for the mission, during science data that we can share,”
the press conference. “We are says Sharaf. ❚

Chemistry The team expected the collision Review Letters, doi.org/ftjg). “We realised that molecular-
to have enough energy to break The team created computer surface collisions will divert energy
Making molecules all the molecule’s bonds, but that to certain areas, and here we’re
go splat results in didn’t happen, says Rauschenbach. simulations of the collision and just exploiting it for a new type
precision reactions “Despite this huge energy, it wasn’t found that the molecule’s final state of mechanochemistry,” says team
just chaos, it was very selective.” is based on its orientation as it hits member Kelvin Anggara at the
BREAKING the chemical bonds in the surface. Striking at a particular Max Planck Institute for Solid
large molecules to form a desired Using a microscope to investigate angle puts a strain on a particular State Research in Germany.
substance can be a fiddly task, the collision scene, the researchers bond and forces it to break. In
but simply chucking molecules noticed that the result was a contrast, during typical chemical This technique could create new
at a wall can get the job done. systematic crash. The molecule reactions, molecules are heated, molecules that can’t be made using
had “fractured” at a specific randomly distributing the energy conventional heating methods.
Stephan Rauschenbach at carbon-nitrogen bond, creating without targeting specific bonds. “If someone could control the
the University of Oxford and his a more spread-out structure. After geometry of the molecule as it
colleagues made the discovery, running the experiment again, “Control the geometry collides, you can get a controlled
which they call “splat chemistry”, they found that the molecule of the molecule as it chemistry, and this is the dream
after accidentally firing a complex split entirely at this bond to form collides and you get for all chemists,” says Anggara. ❚
molecule called Reichardt’s dye two separate fragments (Physical controlled chemistry” Ibrahim Sawal
at a copper surface.

16 | New Scientist | 13 February 2021

Advertorial Paid for by

Sequencing COVID

By Alison Cranage, Science Writer at the Wellcome Sanger Institute

Every day at the Wellcome Genome DAN ROSS (HTTPS://WWW.DAN-ROSS.COM/) Genome sequencing
Campus, boxes with frozen samples is a vital tool in
leftover from COVID-19 tests arrive. virus samples a week. A new £2 million tracking new
Couriered from the Lighthouse Laboratories robotic system has just been installed to variants of the
undertaking the tests in communities across speed things up even further. SARS-Cov-2 virus
the UK, over 17 million samples have been
handled so far. “Researchers in COG-UK use the virus New variant
genome data at a local scale, to support
With one of the largest genome sequencing public health officials.This crucial work Many of those mutations affect the spike
facilities in the world, much of our capacity is helping to inform infection control protein of the virus, which binds to our cells.
has been turned over to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, procedures, as well as uncover previously Analysis has now confirmed that B.1.1.7
as a sequencing hub of the COVID-19 hidden routes of transmission,” says Jeff. is around 50% more transmissible than
Genomics UK consortium (COG-UK). previous variants. The increased
Together, the consortium has sequenced “We’re also constantly monitoring the transmissibility helped explain the rapid
over 200,000 virus genomes from the UK. national sequence data for mutations that rise in cases in the UK at the time.
might impact the behaviour of the virus.
Virologists around the globe are using COG-UK identified a new variant, B.1.1.7, “We are continuing to work around the
the data to understand the spread, and the in the South East of England in late 2020. Its clock to sequence and monitor the virus,
biology, of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.We spoke prevalence has rapidly increased.This new and we immediately pass information to
to Dr Jeffrey Barrett, Director of the COVID-19 variant was unlike any others we’d seen – it public health officials and those who need it.
Genomics Initiative at the Sanger Institute, has many more mutations,” explains Jeff. The next big question is about vaccines – will
about the work. the virus mutate to escape? No data so far
suggests it can escape the current vaccines.
Tracking the spread But sequencing will rapidly alert us if it does,
plus it will inform the next generation of
Tracking the virus within a hospital, town, vaccines, should they be needed.”
country or across the world is possible
because genomes mutate. Letters in the Jeff re-joined the Sanger Institute in July
genome sequence change as organisms this year, to lead the coronavirus analysis
replicate. Individual virus sequences can work. He had previously worked in the
be placed on a phylogenetic tree, much like Human Genetics department for 10 years.
a family tree. Researchers can use this data He was then the founding director of Open
to determine the relatedness of different Targets, before moving to become Chief
viruses. The analysis can help identify chains Scientific Officer at Genomics PLC in 2017.
of transmission, super spreading events and I asked what made him come back.
fast-growing variants.
“I wanted to put large-scale genomics to
To be useful for public health officials, use in the pandemic,” he says. “I wanted to
genomic analysis must be available as close to help. It’s all anyone wants to do, isn’t it?” ❚
real time as possible. Outbreaks and changes
to the virus need to be swiftly identified, and
then interventions deployed to contain them.

It is a huge logistical challenge to sequence
and analyse thousands of genomes that
quickly, every day. In each box from the
Lighthouse Laboratories there are hundreds
of positive samples among thousands of
negative ones. Laboratory, technical, software,
logistic, and scientific teams at Sanger have
worked to handle the millions of samples, and
there is now the capacity to sequence 10,000

News

Language Biology

Orangutans in zoos create Ecological research
new communication signals harder due to lack of
butterfly collectors
Richard Kemeny
Madeline Bodin
WHAT’S in a somersault, a flap RM ASIA/ALAMY
of the lip or a spit of water in the THE decline of butterfly collecting
face? More than meets the eye, time on the ground, away from Orangutans use gestures as a hobby is making conservation
it seems. They may all be new foliage that can disrupt their as well as calls to get and ecology research more difficult
ways of communicating that view of other orangutans. their message across for entomologists, according to an
orangutans have come up with All of these factors may help analysis of 1.4 million specimens
in captivity. This suggests that establish an environment in get food (bioRxiv, doi.org/ftj2). held in US museum collections
such gestural creativity may which productivity can flourish. Fröhlich and her colleagues dating from the 1800s.
be ancestral in the great ape
line, adding a new piece to the Fröhlich’s team suggests that declined to discuss the Although butterfly collecting
puzzle of language evolution. zoo living really has made a work before it has been is often seen as a Victorian-era
difference. The group looked fully peer reviewed. pastime, Erica Fischer at King’s
Using new expressions to at information on more than College London and their colleagues
convey things, known as 8000 examples of non-vocal “The study provides actually found that the largest
productivity in the field of orangutan communications convincing evidence for growth in US specimen numbers
linguistics, is one of the by 30 individuals in five zoos, innovation with regard to occurred between 1945 and 1960,
fundamental building blocks and 41 in wild populations communicative signals in showing an 82 per cent increase.
of complex language, and in two forests. orangutans,” says Christine
it is rarely reported in the Sievers at York University in This may have been driven by
animal kingdom. After identifying and Toronto, Canada. She notes, college-educated veterans who
categorising the full range of however, that there may have received free tuition after the
Instead, most animals signals, the team focused on been observational difficulties second world war, the researchers
have a fixed set of messages, those seen exclusively either in in the wild habitats, which could say. The number of specimens
the meanings of which are wild or in captive populations. have influenced how much collected in the US then faltered
determined by the context, innovation was spotted there. in the 1960s, and plunged
such as the arrival of a predator. Seven signals were used after 1990, the team found
These signals seem to be innate only in zoos, whereas only Simon Townsend at the (BioScience, doi.org/ftt9).
rather than being learned. one was exclusive to the wild. University of Warwick, UK, says
The zoo-only signals include the study “adds to the growing Fischer says that instead of
Humans clearly show a head-stand and a repeated body of data that indicates collecting physical specimens,
productivity, but whether spit of water in the face. signalling in great apes may amateurs these days are more
other apes do is debated. be more plastic than previously likely to gather observational data,
To explore, Marlen Fröhlich The results suggest an thought, with obvious particularly photos posted to online
increase of around 20 per implications for the evolution databases. While useful, photos
“Seven gestures and cent in the gestures and facial of human language, arguably don’t let researchers analyse
facial signals were signals of captive orangutans the most productive and DNA, chemical ratios, internal
used only by orangutans compared with those in the flexible communication system organs or the pollen found clinging
living in zoos” wild. Most of the zoo signals in the animal kingdom”. ❚ to specimens, says Fischer.
were used to invite play, or to
at the University of Zurich in For example, in a 2018 study,
Switzerland and her colleagues Heidi MacLean at Aarhus University
examined whether orangutans in Denmark and her colleagues
held in captivity in zoos examined specimens of the Mead’s
have developed new ways sulphur butterfly (Colias meadii)
to communicate that aren’t collected over the course of
seen in their wild peers. 60 years at Loveland Pass, Colorado,
to see how they adapted to climate
Zoos offer orangutans a change by changing colour. “We
stable yet different ecological couldn’t have done it without the
niche. Getting food is less of an actual specimens,” says MacLean.
issue, as is avoiding predators.
In the wild, orangutans tend Fischer is now studying
to live rather solitary lives. collections of butterflies and
In zoos, they live in larger moths in UK museums to see
groups in close proximity to if the same collecting decline
one another, with more social holds true and to assess the cultural
interaction. They spend more forces behind the change. “Is it
that science has moved away
from collections?” says Fischer. ❚

18 | New Scientist | 13 February 2021

News

Maths

Breakthrough for 100-year-old
knotty maths problem

Leah Crane

UNRAVELLING knots just got and computer scientist Alan knot diagrams that you need to doubles the time needed to solve
make more complicated before the problem. Lackenby’s algorithm
easier. One of the biggest problems Turing even wrote about it in his you can simplify them down,” he can figure it out faster than that.
says, and computers aren’t great His work relies on defining each
in the mathematical study of final published paper in 1954. at recognising when to do so. knot as representing the edge
of a three-dimensional shape.
knots is recognising the difference Now, Marc Lackenby at the The level of complexity of
a given knot is defined by the “You can imagine a round
between an actual knot and a piece University of Oxford has come up number of crossings it contains. unknot just lying in the plane,
A crossing is the spot at which one well that’s the boundary of a disc,”
of string that can be untangled with an algorithm that can make part of the string passes over or says Lackenby. “Or you can imagine
under another part, and any tangle taking a strip of paper and gluing it
into a single loop. A new algorithm this distinction far faster, which he that can be manipulated so that together in a loop with some little
it has no crossings is the unknot. twists in it, and the boundary of
can find this “unknot” far faster presented at a recent seminar at that strip of paper will be a knot.”
“You might expect it not to be a
than any previous one can. the University of California, Davis. difficult problem, and the issue is If the shape corresponding
that when you start to think about to a knot can be manipulated
Mathematically, the definition “Although finding the unknot how a computer would actually and simplified into a disc, that
decide such a question, you realise knot is actually the unknot.
of a knot is a closed curve – like a seems quite intuitive because that you don’t have the right tools
to even come to a decisive answer Determining whether a knot
piece of string with the ends tied throughout our lives we are about whether a thing is or isn’t is the unknot has far-ranging
knotted,” says Lackenby. applications, from studying
together – that can’t be untangled how DNA is tangled up within
Other mathematicians have cells to understanding the loops
into a simple loop. Anything that “There are knot diagrams designed algorithms that can find of plasma that make up stars,
whether a given tangle is knotted so a faster algorithm could be
can be untangled into a simple that you need to make or not, but every added crossing enormously helpful. ❚

loop, no matter how complicated more complicated before

or tangled it appears at first, is you can simplify them”

called the unknot. “Just like zero

isn’t a number, the unknot isn’t untangling wires and pieces

a knot,” says Mark Dennis at the of string and headphone cords

University of Birmingham, UK. and things, it turns out that

Mathematicians have been mathematically it touches on

working on algorithms to tell much more abstract areas of

whether a given knot is actually maths, questions to do with

the unknot for about 100 years, geometry in higher-dimensional

and pioneering mathematician spaces,” says Dennis. “There are

Archaeology DR. BIN HAN, UNIVERSITY OF CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES CHINA The 2700-year-old bronze
jar (left) and the face cream it
Ancient face cream contained (right) were found
was made from cave in northern China
‘milk’ and animal fat
animal that had been fed lots
SOME Chinese noblemen were 1 cm 1 cm of grass-like plants.
using cosmetic face cream
2700 years ago. Archaeologists It dates from the Spring and Autumn bronze jar. Inside were lumps of a The second ingredient was a
have found an ornate bronze jar period (771 to 476 BC) of Chinese soft, yellow-white material. They form of watery calcium carbonate
containing the remains of a face history, centuries before the country immediately suspected that this called moonmilk. It is a soft, white,
cream, which was made from a was first unified by the Qin dynasty. was cosmetic cream. Chemical creamy substance that forms inside
mixture of animal fat and a rare During this period, Liujiawa was the analyses later confirmed this and caves. The cream would have made
substance called moonmilk that capital city of a state called Rui. revealed two main ingredients. the man’s face white, says Yang
is found in caves. (Archaeometry, doi.org/ftvg).
In the 2700-year-old tomb of a The first was animal fat,
The discovery is the earliest nobleman, the researchers found a which came from a ruminant The face cream is the earliest
evidence of a Chinese man using example associated with a Chinese
cosmetics, although Chinese man. However, evidence of Chinese
women did so earlier than this. women using cosmetics goes back
further. In 2016, Yang’s team
In 2017 and 2018, Yimin Yang studied red cosmetic sticks from
at the University of the Chinese 1980 to 1450 BC, which were
Academy of Sciences in Beijing buried with women in China.  ❚
and his colleagues excavated a site Michael Marshall
called Liujiawa in northern China.
13 February 2021 | New Scientist | 19

News In brief

Invasive species

Virus could be unleashed to
control carp in world first

VOLODYMYR BURDIAK/ALAMY AUSTRALIA is looking at using a The researchers found that carp
type of herpes virus as a biological pass this threshold for biodiversity
agent to cut the number of carp in impact in 54 per cent of wetlands,
the country’s waterways. 70 per cent of rivers in general and
97 per cent of large, lowland rivers.
Since its introduction there
in the late 1960s, the common The estimate was calculated
carp (Cyprinus carpio) has led to using a database the team created,
a decline in native fish and plants. based on 574,145 carp caught at
4831 sites between 1994 and
Ivor Stuart at the Arthur 2018, plus the results of 153
Rylah Institute for Environmental research studies (Biological
Research, which is the biodiversity Conservation, doi.org/ghtmsm).
research organisation for the state
government of Victoria, and his While trapping helps control the
colleagues have now estimated the carp, the Fisheries Research and
size of the problem. They calculated Development Corporation (FRDC),
that, in a year with average rainfall, on behalf of Australia’s government,
there are roughly 199 million is assessing possible use of cyprinid
carp in Australia – equivalent herpesvirus 3 as a broader control
to 215,450 tonnes of fish. strategy. This is a highly contagious
virus that kills common and koi carp.
“Carp tend to impact the amenity
and biodiversity of an aquatic “Australia would be a world
system when they reach 80 to 100 first in this regard,” says Jennifer
kilograms per hectare,” says Stuart. Marshall at the FRDC. Donna Lu

Solar system Technology

We may have solved “It’s like a seasoning mix with Moving pack makes about by around 21 per cent.
one Martianmystery salt in it: just a little bit of water power as you walk “When we are walking, the mass
and it sticks to everything and
FOR years, researchers have argued gets all crusty and stuck in the A BACKPACK fitted with shock centre of the body moves up and
about whether strange streaks on shaker,” says Bishop. absorbers that generate electricity down,” says Jia Cheng at Tsinghua
the surface of Mars are caused by is easier to carry and can power University, China, who developed
flowing water or sliding dust. It Recent observations of the LEDs and other devices. the prototype with his colleagues.
seems both sides may be right. Martian surface have shown that An ordinary backpack moves with
RSLs are more likely to occur after The bag is suspended on sliding this mass centre, but the pulley
Recurring slope lineae (RSLs) dust storms. Dumping dust on rails that allow it to move up and system cancels that motion out,
are dark stripes that appear to thin, salty crusts could cause them down, with a pair of rubber ropes then uses the relative movement
flow down the sides of craters on to collapse into the air pockets on a pulley system acting like a between bag and body to power
Mars during the warmest parts beneath. That could then trigger car’s suspension to reduce the a triboelectric nanogenerator
of the year. Janice Bishop at the more dust to slide downhill, impact of the pack as you walk. (TENG) that converts mechanical
SETI Institute in California and causing what we see as RSLs This reduces the force generated energy into electricity.
her colleagues were studying (Science Advances, doi.org/ftkn). by the contents of the pack jiggling
the strange behaviour of salty When worn by someone who
sediments in Antarctica when they “The whole RSL story is ADAPTED FROM ACS NANO 2021 is walking, the backpack’s TENG
realised that similar processes complicated because we are not converts 14 per cent of the bag’s
could cause RSLs on Mars. there and we can’t test it,” says movement into 118 microjoules
Bishop. The rovers that have of electrical energy. The team
They used soils similar to those been on Mars can only dig a few used this to power LEDs, a
found on Mars to test their idea. centimetres down, so can’t tell us fluorescent light or a watch
When they added a small amount anything about the possibilities (ACS Nano, doi.org/ftvb).
of water, it percolated through of processes like the one Bishop
the soil and brought salts to the and her colleagues suggest could The current version is around
surface. These created a crust cause RSLs. However, the Rosalind 3 kilograms – too heavy to be
with pockets of air beneath it that Franklin rover, planned to launch widely used, but Cheng thinks this
formed as the salts expanded with in 2022, will have the capability can be reduced to make it more
water and then contracted again. to dig deeper, so it may be able to feasible. He hopes to bring the
solve the mystery. Leah Crane next version down to 1 kilogram.
Chris Stokel-Walker

20 | New Scientist | 13 February 2021

New Scientist Daily

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newscientist.com/sign-up

Really brief Ecology

KJELL B. SANDVED/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY DNA clues to recent Fairy circlesresilient transient rings, up to 100 metres in where the plant has been growing
bird extinctions to climate change size, on salt marshes in Shanghai. for the longest, leaving living rings.
Compared with samples from the
North American birds that THE most famous so-called fairy edge of the rings, those from the These strange patterns of
went extinct last century, circles are grass-ringed patches centre had higher concentrations grass aren’t just interesting to
including the passenger of barren earth found in Namibia of sulphides, which can cause look at – they indicate that their
pigeon (pictured), weren’t and Australia. Their lesser-known plant death at high levels. The environment can bounce back
in genetic decline, suggests cousins – transient rings of grassy centre samples also had less from disruption more easily than
a DNA analysis of samples plants found in Chinese salt available soil nitrogen, which others. The researchers’ models
from museum collections. marshes – could help explain why can limit plant growth. show that ecosystems with
This adds to evidence that such patterns naturally form and transient rings recover from
humans were responsible may indicate ecosystem resilience These variations are caused by disruptions like environmental
for their disappearance to climate change. the growth and decomposition of stress – a lack of oxygen in the
(Proceedings of the Royal the plants. The team’s computer sediment, for example – to their
Society B, doi.org/ftdk). Li-Xia Zhao at East China Normal models show that both nutrient previous state twice as quickly as
University and her team took depletion and rising sulphide those with persistent ring patterns
Bats use late-night sediment and plant samples from levels would lead the vegetation (Science Advances, DOI: 10.1126/
winds to soar high in the centre to die first, as that is sciadv.abe1100). Bethan Ackerley

By exploiting winds that Biology Animal behaviour
sweep up south-facing
slopes at night, European Spiders bag big prey
free-tailed bats in Portugal thanks to silk trick
can reach altitudes of
1600 metres. Birds ride SCIENCE HISTORY IMAGES/ALAMY SOME spiders take on animals that
the winds during the day, are far larger than they are. To stop
but until now it was unclear Some sperm can sabotage such prey from running away, they
whether bats could do the rivals in the race to an egg use their webs as pulleys to lift the
same at night (Current doomed animals off the ground.
Biology, doi.org/ftks). SPERM have one goal – to fertilise likelihood of being passed on to
an egg – and it seems that some offspring to higher than the usual Gabriele Greco and Nicola
Wine analysis backs mouse sperm cells with a certain odds of 50 per cent. Herrmann and Pugno at the University of Trento
up idea of ‘terroir’ genetic mutation may boost their his team have figured out how these in Italy watched five captive
chances by sabotaging rivals. sperm gain their advantage. specimens from the Theridiidae
A chemical analysis family of common house spiders
of Malbec wines from Previous research has shown that The sperm with one t haplotype catch cockroaches up to 50 times
Argentina shows that it mice with two copies of a genetic variant produce molecules that are more massive than themselves.
is possible to identify the variant called the t haplotype are able to disturb other sperm. They
vineyard they came from more likely to be infertile. But a new make it hard for the rival sperm cells They found that the spiders
and the year they were study by Bernhard Herrmann at the to interact with their environment, seemed to be using their body
produced. This supports Max Planck Institute for Molecular blocking various cell signalling weight to tension silk threads to
the concept of “terroir”, Genetics in Berlin and his colleagues molecules that normally provide keep them taut before attaching
that the combination of suggests that males with one copy the sperm with a sense of direction them to the roaches. The spiders
climate and wine-making of it make some t haplotype sperm (PLoS Genetics, doi.org/ftj8). then continued to attach more
practices can give wines a cells that are more motile than threads until their prey was lifted
unique flavour (Scientific those they make without it. Although the t haplotype into the air (Journal of the Royal
Reports, doi.org/ftb7). sperm cells were more motile, the Society Interface, doi.org/ftkr).
This variant is a “selfish” genetic researchers didn’t test their ability
element, because it can increase its to fertilise an egg. Karina Shah “In the end, all these threads
create enough tension to lift the
prey, and that is when the spider
wins,” says Greco. The silk’s
strength is comparable with steel,
but it is as elastic as the silk you
would use to make clothes.

The behaviour is interesting
because you might not expect
such a relatively simple animal
to know how to catch its prey in
such a sophisticated way, says
Greco. It may allow spiders to
have an outsized impact on
their ecosystems. LC

13 February 2021 | New Scientist | 21

Signal Boost

Welcome to our Signal Boost project – a page for charitable organisations
to get their message out to a global audience, free of charge. Today, a message
from Harry’s HAT

BRIDGET BAXTER PHOTOGRAPHY

Hydrocephalus is a swelling of the brain “Harry was just eight weeks old when conferences, peer networking forums and
caused by excess build-up of cerebral fluid. his shunt was inserted and by his first birthday, workshops to improve their understanding
This leads to an increase in intracranial pressure he had already endured four brain surgery and management of hydrocephalus.
resulting in serious brain complications. procedures. We found ourselves isolated by
It affects 1 in every 1000 babies born in the Harry’s condition and struggled to access the The charity is collaborating with major
UK today and is the most common reason for support and information we needed.” universities to understand the impact of
brain surgery in children. hydrocephalus on families through patient
Harry’s HAT has the following key objectives: engagement studies and we are currently
Despite its prevalence, there is limited • To raise awareness of paediatric embarking on research into antenatal care
knowledge about the condition and limited and the impact of third trimester screening on
investment into its management nationally. hydrocephalus. health outcomes. To this end, we have created
To reduce the pressure, a shunt is inserted which • To fund training so that front-line workers can a short online questionnaire for UK families to
allows some of the fluid to drain from the brain provide feedback: harrys-hat.org/survey
to another area of the body. There has been very learn more about the condition and its
little advance in shunt technology since its management. We are also looking for financial support,
co-invention in 1963 by the author Roald Dahl, • To fund research to improve the outcome for opportunities to connect medical and scientific
whose son Theo developed hydrocephalus. children with the condition. experts and we would like people to share our
Half of all shunts block within the first year, • To provide quality sign-posting support for work widely to raise awareness and
requiring further brain surgery. families journeying through the condition. engagement. It has been over half a century
since the invention of the shunt and it is time to
Hence, the inception in 2019 of Harry’s Since its launch, the volunteer-run charity has advance the treatment of hydrocephalus into
Hydrocephalus Awareness Trust (“Harry’s HAT”). raised over £62,000, which has enabled the 21st century.
This is only UK charity to focus solely on paediatric nurse specialists to attend
hydrocephalus with a mission to improve the
life and outcomes for children with the Want to help?
condition. Harry’s parents founded the charity
in response to a need identified following their Please do get in touch to help us provide a brighter future for our families touched
son’s diagnosis with hydrocephalus: by hydrocephalus. Thank you. Text to give: Text HYDRO to 70490 to donate £3
(Texts cost £3 plus one standard rate message). Donate online: harrys-hat.org

Views Letters Aperture Culture Culture columnist
On the hunt for A baby lemon It’s a Sin exposes the Jacob Aron rounds
The columnist the elusive Dyson shark hides in a realities of the 1980s up the best games
Graham Lawton on sphere p26 mangrove forest p28 AIDS epidemic p32 set on Mars p34
net zero’s impact on
climate pledges p24

Comment

Gambling interventions

We now have the fullest picture yet of online gambling’s links to
financial and social harm, say Naomi Muggleton and Neil Stewart

MICHELLE D’URBANO GAMBLING has changed a misremember or distort their what financial, social and health with higher rates of gambling.
lot in recent years. Mobile gambling habits. Another issue is outcomes disproportionately The relationship between
apps give people unlimited the assumption that the problems affect those who gamble over
access to the global betting market associated with gambling affect a period of seven years (Nature gambling and harmful life
at the touch of a button from just a small proportion of the Human Behaviour, doi.org/ftj6). experiences isn’t purely financial.
anywhere in the world. As the most extreme gamblers, whereas While not quite representative By looking at the time of day that
number of gamblers has increased, gambling researchers believe that of the UK population, this is the people spend money, we found
so too have bookmakers’ profit lower levels of gambling may be fullest picture yet of gambling that those who gamble are more
margins and the amount of harmful too. and its associated harms. likely to be awake in the middle
problem gambling. Yet we still of the night, a marker associated
can’t say for sure how gambling Understanding the societal We found that people who with poorer mental health. Over
and financial troubles are linked. impact of gambling requires gamble, even if it is with a the seven year period, gamblers
large-scale, objective data into relatively small amount of their were also more likely to receive
In the UK, the number of active the harms of gambling that, monthly budget, experience a disability payments – measured
online gambling accounts has until recently, has been lacking. small increase in distressing by incoming welfare payments –
risen from around 16 million in In a recent study, we looked at financial outcomes, such as falling and to lose their jobs. We also
2008 to 30 million in 2019. The anonymised data from a UK bank behind on their bills and mortgage found that all levels of gambling
Gambling Commission, an of around 6.5 million people – of or using a payday loan, compared are associated with a higher
industry regulator for England, whom 40 per cent gambled – to see with those who don’t. This risk rises mortality rate, for men and
Scotland and Wales, estimates women, young and old.
that up to 300,000 people may be
problem gamblers – gambling in a Though none of these
way that is disruptive or damaging correlations prove causation,
to their lives. A similar pattern has gambling does appear to be closely
been seen in other countries. linked to negative outcomes in
people’s lives. This suggests that a
As a result, there is some public health approach – such as
pushback. The Gambling an advertising ban – could reduce
Commission is reviewing current harm. Targeted approaches, for
legislation and has announced instance allowing people to enable
new restrictions on how online gambling blocks on current
bookmakers can operate. There accounts or limiting the amount
is talk of banning gambling that can be gambled, would also
advertising from sports shirts, be beneficial to people with higher
reminiscent of when tobacco levels of gambling. We will only
firms faced a similar outlawing. know if these approaches work
through a large-scale randomised
But there is still much that we trial. It is time we found out. ❚
don’t know about the impacts
of gambling. Naomi Muggleton is at the University
of Oxford and Neil Stewart is at Warwick
As interviewing gamblers is Business School, UK
time consuming and costly, much
of the existing research relies on
surveys of the most extreme
gamblers. This is problematic for
several reasons. Extreme gamblers
are hard to reach and are likely to

13 February 2021 | New Scientist | 23

Views Columnist

No planet B

A climate tipping point to welcome The concept of net zero has
rapidly taken hold in the public consciousness and it is having a big
impact on pledges to cut carbon, writes Graham Lawton

O NE of the concepts that Greta Thunberg was talking about Even families can make a pledge
climate science has it; two countries – Suriname and at a website called Family Climate
bequeathed the wider Bhutan – had achieved it, and four Emergency. I will look into this
and report back in a later column.
world is the tipping point: a more, including the UK, had
“There’s now a big, broad
description of how a complex passed laws to aim for it. A dozen societal consensus about the need
to do something about climate
system can change gradually, or so others were thinking about it. change,” says Sam Fankhauser at
the London School of Economics.
almost imperceptibly, then Today, the picture has changed “Two years ago or so, you had to
make the case for climate action.
suddenly flip into a new, stable dramatically. Suriname and That narrative has really shifted.”

state. Climate tipping points tend Bhutan still stand alone as the Maybe the power of net zero to
win over wider society lies in the
Graham Lawton is a staff to be things we really don’t want heroes of zero, but legislation fact that it is easy to grasp. The
writer at New Scientist and basic concept is actually the
author of This Book Could Save to go past, such as the irreversible has been passed or is pending in 21 simplest part of it, according to one
Your Life. You can follow him of its originators, Myles Allen at
@grahamlawton conversion of the Amazon other countries, plus the European the University of Oxford. In order
to keep a lid on global heating at
Graham’s week rainforest to savannah or, heaven Union. Three of the world’s four- whatever upper limit we choose,
we will eventually have to stop
What I’m reading forfend, the Gulf Stream shutting biggest emitters – China, the EU adding carbon dioxide and other
I’ve just ordered How to warming gases to the atmosphere.
Spend a Trillion Dollars down. Like in the climate disaster and Japan – are in the club. If the US
by my New Scientist A complete cessation is probably
colleague Rowan Hooper. movie The Day After Tomorrow. consummates its new relationship impossible, so emissions that
What I’m watching cannot be avoided must be offset
The Great. It really is. That one ends especially badly. with the planet, that will be four by planting trees and other nature-
What I’m working on based solutions that remove
I’m about to fly The existence of climate tipping out of four. According to the carbon from the air. But these
(virtually) to New York won’t be enough, so we also need
to cover a conference points and where they lie, however, what Allen calls “re-fossilising”:
on SARS-CoV-2. capturing CO2 released from the
remain uncertain. Climate “Maybe the power combustion of fossil fuels and
This column appears burying it underground from
monthly. Up next week: scientists have rowed back from of net zero to win whence it came. Overall, no new
Annalee Newitz the Gulf Stream one, for example, over wider society greenhouse gases are added to the
though are increasingly concerned lies in the fact that atmosphere. Hence “net” zero.
24 | New Scientist | 13 February 2021 about unstoppable methane it is an easy concept
release from melting permafrost. Of course, pledging and
achieving are two different things.
More recently, though, the to grasp” Three decades of hard graft still lie
ahead. We urgently need to speed
tipping point concept has found a up emission reductions; only a
handful of countries are actually
new application in climate science Energy & Climate Intelligence on a trajectory towards net zero.
The UK’s recent approval of a new
as a way to explain, and possibly Unit’s Net Zero Tracker, the US is coal mine shows how easy it is
even for net-zero pledgers to slip
engineer, social change. The way one of around 100 countries in back into old ways. But something
has tipped, and there is now a
changes in attitude creep along which net-zero laws are under fighting chance that the climate
won’t. Let’s face it: we have zero
at a glacial pace before suddenly discussion. Even Australia, which other options. ❚

bursting forth to take root across just four months ago was pushing

society is a classic tipping point. back, has recanted. Countries on

This process is useful because it the outside look increasingly like

moves ideas that were once on the a rogues’ gallery of backward-

fringes of mainstream opinion looking petrostates: Brazil, Saudi

rapidly to the centre; ideas such as Arabia, Iran, Russia, Venezuela

the need for deep economic and and Nigeria. You might call them

technological changes to avoid a the axis of ev-oil.

real-life climate disaster movie. At subnational levels,

Whether by accident or design, enthusiasm is spreading too.

we recently passed one such social According to Kaya Axelsson at the

tipping point. In narrow terms, it is University of Oxford’s Net Zero

the sudden, widespread embrace initiative, 452 cities, 22 regions,

of net zero. In broader terms, it more than 1100 big companies,

means final realisation from all nearly 50 investment funds and

levels of society that we must take 550 universities have pledged to

radical action or face dire, possibly go net zero globally, with more

terminal, consequences. joining every day. Axelsson says

A year ago, when I first wrote when she goes to talk to private

about it in this column, net zero companies, she finds she is

was creeping into the mainstream. pushing at an open door.

Discovery
Tours

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Views Your letters

Editor’s pick because a relatively benign It seems clear to me that having When it came to smarts,
version in a living human can your views suppressed could we were streets ahead
On the hunt for the fulfil its objective to reproduce, be construed as evidence of a
elusive Dyson sphere whereas a deadly virus in a conspiracy and that this conclusion 30 January, p 34
dying person is more likely isn’t necessarily an irrational From Eric Kvaalen,
30 January, p 44 to perish with its host. one. I stand by the fundamental Les Essarts-le-Roi, France
From Guy Cox, scientific principle that you Your article on the Denisovans
St Albans, New South Wales, Australia Would it be possible or practical should deal with incorrect views, ends by saying that they and the
The search for alien intelligence by to engineer a version of the virus not by suppressing them, but Neanderthals were cognitively
looking for Dyson spheres – vast that was highly transmissible and by winning the argument. not very different from us.
theorised power plants built to highly stable, yet benign? Then
encase and draw energy from a it would outperform its more Someone, somewhere, But Neanderthal technology
star – is inevitably doomed to fail. dangerous cousins, and everybody always has to foot the bill seems to have got no further than
could become infected with it and string and bone flutes. As far as we
Any civilisation with such a high develop antibodies, thus creating 9 January, p 19 know, they never made paintings
demand for resources and low global herd immunity. Or would From Roger Elwell, like those we made in the Chauvet
respect for the environment is that be playing with fire? Colchester, Essex, UK cave, or figurines like the Venus
bound to collapse long before Richard Webb’s comment article of Brassempouy. They made no
it is capable of building a sphere. Burnout is a huge issue made the case for free public permanent buildings, they didn’t
for single parents transport in cities, but this isn’t invent pottery or figure out how
The true sign of a highly “free” because it needs to be paid to make metals. We may not have
advanced civilisation would be the 23 January, p 40 for somehow and by someone. been smarter than Neanderthals
mastery of light hydrogen fusion, From Eleanor Sharman, Dorrigo, 50,000 years ago, but I think
which would provide virtually New South Wales, Australia While the environmental we’re smarter now. They had
limitless energy from the most I was surprised that the research considerations may well be fairly 300,000 years to try, but they
abundant element in the universe. into parental burnout didn’t seem clear, apart from the Vienna never advanced as far as we have.
In principle, we could detect this to note whether the families experiment, Webb doesn’t really
on a planet by seeing the spectral involved were single parents. address how such provision is to Tips for beating those
signature of its product: helium. be funded. I’m not a city dweller, pesky flies
Unfortunately, since a planet’s sun My experience is that sole and I know that I wouldn’t be
is carrying out the same reaction, parenting in Western cultures is happy to see my taxes pay for 23 January, p 20
this wouldn’t be that easy. likely to involve far more personal free travel in the likes of London. From Ann Smith,
depletion, responsibility, work and I suspect I am not alone in that. Churchdown, Gloucestershire, UK
From Daniel Kitto, often financial stress. It is possible It was interesting to learn that
Norwich, Norfolk, UK that sole parents experience less Rise of gas guzzlers may houseflies have specialised wings
It seems to me that any civilisation of this kind of stress in traditional be a demographic issue known as halteres that make them
needing to build – and capable cultures in which care and harder to swat. I find that a very
of building – a Dyson sphere provision for children is shared 30 January, p 17 successful way to catch flies in the
is unlikely to stop at one. more widely among extended From Roy Murchie, house is by lowering a cup over
family and the community. Wivenhoe, Essex, UK them extremely slowly. The flies
The same drive to ever-greater You report that the gains for the don’t seem to be able to compute
exploitation of energy and other This means prevention and climate from greater use of electric low speed.
resources that a Dyson sphere treatment of burnout for sole cars are being cancelled out by
assumes (rightly or wrongly), parents needs to involve practical the increase in SUVs. Maybe the From Colum Clarke, Wicklow Town,
would also drive such a civilisation intervention and support, not reasons why more of the latter are County Wicklow, Ireland
to colonise neighbouring star just psychological therapies. being bought could be explored, Halteres or not on your least
systems and build further spheres. especially given the ageing of the favourite fly, swatting them leaves
Debate contrarian views, population. As an 80-year-old, a mess and frustration at the
So perhaps any search for these don’t just suppress them what I look for in a car is ease of misses. I vacuum them up using
spheres should look not for entry and, especially, exit. Can I the basic hose or narrow nozzle.
individual stars with the infrared 30 January, p 12 urge car manufacturers to publish The flies just don’t see it coming
signature we would expect of a From Martin Jenkins, London, UK the height of the H point (the point and you can also easily catch them
Dyson sphere, but for clusters of So someone whose views are of a vehicle occupier’s hip joint) flying – highly recommended.
such stars in close proximity. moderated or downvoted on above the road. Success rate 100 per cent. ❚
social media is more likely to
Can we engineer a become a conspiracy theorist? For the record
solution to the pandemic?
Want to get in touch? ❚  The Dutch study of body
23 January, p 12 language imitation when lying
From David Aldred, Send letters to [email protected]; only looked at the behaviour
Elloughton, East Yorkshire, UK see terms at newscientist.com/letters of men (23 January, p 20).
You report that a far less deadly Letters sent to New Scientist, 25 Bedford Street,
version of the coronavirus will London WC2E 9ES will be delayed
probably emerge naturally,

26 | New Scientist | 13 February 2021

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Views Aperture

28 | New Scientist | 13 February 2021

Pool school

Photographer Shane Gross
Agency naturepl.com

HIDDEN away in a mangrove
forest on the island of Eleuthera
in the Bahamas, this baby lemon
shark (Negaprion brevirostris) will
spend the first few years of its life
searching for food in the small
area of underwater foliage where
it was born, and learning the ropes
to boost its chances of surviving
into adulthood.

Mangroves are the only trees
that can grow in salt water. Their
intricate roots provide ideal places
for fish to hide from predators –
and a safe nursery for lemon
shark pups, which must fend for
themselves from the moment
they are born. This individual,
captured by photographer
Shane Gross, will probably make
mistakes along the way, as it learns
what to eat and how to hunt.

Though adult lemon sharks
can grow to 3 metres, newborn
pups are only about 7 centimetres
in size, allowing them to live
comfortably among the
mangroves. By monitoring lemon
sharks for decades, researchers
have found that females will
return to the same place they
were born to breed.

Lemon sharks are mainly
found on the west side of the
Atlantic Ocean, from the US to
Brazil, but are classified as near-
threatened due to the destruction
of the mangrove forests that play
a crucial role in their lives. In the
Bahamas, this destruction is
predominantly to make way for
human settlements. Globally,
more than 35 per cent of
mangroves have already
disappeared. ❚

Gege Li

For more on shark photography
see page 33

13 February 2021 | New Scientist | 29

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Views Culture

The shadow of AIDS

It’s a Sin is the perfect snapshot of London’s gay scene in the 1980s, while
exposing the harsh realities of the rising AIDS epidemic, says Karina Shah

Ritchie (Olly Alexander)
and Jill (Lydia West) in
It’s a Sin

BEN BLACKALL/CHANNEL 4 The series presents a candid
authenticity that could only be
by retro lampshades and boldly the camera pans to him on the achieved by someone who has
lived through and experienced the
printed curtains. We are dance floor of Heaven, the iconic events themselves, which Davies
did. The soundtrack especially
TV introduced to 18-year-old Ritchie gay club in London. As the shadow gets an honourable mention – it
features some of the biggest smash
It’s a Sin (Olly Alexander), the show’s of AIDS closes in, Ritchie and his hits of the decade, including tracks
by Blondie, Wham! and Queen.
Russell T Davies protagonist, who is about to friends tackle misinformation Paired with the impeccable acting
Channel 4 of the young and upcoming actors,
move to the big city: London. and stigma. many of whom weren’t even alive
AN UNKNOWN virus, in the 1980s, we are transported
misinformation and uncertainty His story really begins when The miniseries scarily mirrors back in time.
about the future. No, we’re not
talking about coronavirus for he meets Roscoe (Omari Douglas) our current reality. Much like Davies preserves the joyous
once. It’s a Sin, a new five-part scenes of 1980s London, all while
miniseries on Channel 4, and Colin (Callum Scott Howells). today’s coronavirus, there were sensitively portraying the realities
delicately tackles the HIV and of the disease’s devastating
AIDS epidemic of the 1980s, with As the three young men navigate many rumours circulating about progression. We see how HIV
the backdrop of queer London. and AIDS affected the individuals
the capital’s gay scene and HIV and AIDS, due to fear of the themselves, their social circle and
Created by Russell T Davies, who even families who discover their
was also behind the 1999 series university life in general, they are son’s sexuality through the most
Queer as Folk, the show chronicles haunting circumstances. No
the lives of three gay men who introduced to a mysterious disease “HIV and AIDS have spoilers, but keep your box of
set off from their home towns that seems to disproportionately claimed the lives of tissues close to hand. HIV and
to begin new lives at university. affect gay men. AIDS have claimed the lives of
A seemingly light set-up, the story In the early 1980s, reports millions of people – millions of people across the
takes a turn for the worse as a world – this fictional telling
deadly new virus is on the rise. of severe immune deficiency this fictional telling doesn’t sugar-coat it.

It’s a Sin opens in September began to rise around the world. doesn’t sugar-coat it” The mortality rate from HIV is
1981, with an outwardly perfect now lower with the development
nuclear family sat around their Scientists were dumbfounded by of preventative drugs, such as pre-
dimly lit dining table, surrounded exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), and
this new disease, which worked unknown. One of the most antiretroviral therapy. But living
with the devastating impacts of
by attacking the body’s immune common misconceptions HIV or AIDS is still the reality for
millions of people, especially
system, weakening its ability to was that only gay people could those in low-income countries
where therapies are hard to access.
fight infections. contract the virus – it was even
It’s a Sin serves as a powerful
Navigating an increasingly labelled the “gay plague”. This reminder of a chilling chapter that
burdened thousands of gay men.
homophobic society, Ritchie stigma cast a large shadow on the It is a poignant love letter to all
those lost during the AIDS
initially responds to the disease gay community, meaning that epidemic of the 1980s, and to
those allies who unconditionally
with denial. “I don’t believe it. I many people suffered in silence supported them. ❚

don’t believe a word of it,” he says until their last days of life, as

in a monologue of denial, while shown in It’s a Sin.

32 | New Scientist | 13 February 2021

Don’t miss

Learning to love sharks

Valerie Taylor, a shark hunter turned shark lover who shot footage
for Jaws, is a colourful subject, says Davide Abbatescianni

That was the beginning of a long, repeated attempts to make amends Listen
and explain how their work on Jaws Octave of Light,
Film intense journey, which led them was obviously contributing to a featuring soprano Beth
to make documentaries and swim work of pure fiction. Valerie Taylor’s Sterling, is an album of
dismay at accidentally damaging exoplanet music by David
Playing With Sharks: cageless among a school of oceanic sharks’ reputation is plain in one Ibbett, guest composer
of the film’s most painful sections. at Fermilab in Illinois, and
The Valerie Taylor story white-tip sharks in Peter Gimbel’s astronomer Roy Gould,
After Jaws, the couple focused who have turned
Sally Aitken 1971 film Blue Water, White Death. on celebrating sharks, working as exoplanet spectra into
underwater photographers and musical chords.
Wildbear Entertainment It is striking to observe how often making the front cover of
prestigious publications, including Read
their fear of the predators was National Geographic for that 1992 The Raven’s Hat
first with the great white sharks. by Jonas Peters and
IN JANUARY 1992, Valerie and Ron gradually replaced by curiosity, Nicolai Meinshausen
The rewarding final sequence is a series of engaging
Taylor notched up an incredible mutual respect and admiration. of Playing With Sharks, set in Fiji, games that seem
shows how the love for knowledge unsolvable — until you
first when they filmed great white “We ended up being accepted knows no bounds or age limits. translate them into
Taylor’s life-affirming journey mathematical terms.
sharks without a safety cage or any as other marine animals,” says becomes an effective narrative Hours of fun for anyone
tool for outlining the scientific story who took maths
other protection. Alongside two Taylor, while archive footage of how we changed our view of seriously at school.
sharks – from marine monsters
other divers, they swam among the to extraordinary, complex animals Watch
that should be protected. Tribes of Europa, a
animals off Dyer Island, South Africa. “Taylor’s journey near-future German
Valerie Taylor, an icon and living Enriched by a powerful score by sci-fi series on Netflix,
legend in the diving world, is now in outlines the scientific Caitlin Yeo and impeccably edited follows siblings Kiano,
by Adrian Rostirolla, Playing With Liv, and Elja, who are
her 80s. She shares some of those story of how our Sharks is a must-see for sea lovers fighting for their lives
and documentary enthusiasts. ❚ on a continent split into
memories in Playing With Sharks, view of sharks warring tribal states.
Davide Abbatescianni is a film critic Available from
a documentary about her life, changed forever” based in Cork, Ireland 19 February.

directed by Sally Aitken, which 13 February 2021 | New Scientist | 33

premiered at this year’s online shows her in a chain-mail suit,

Sundance Film Festival. swimming close by the sharks.

It shows her as a shark hunter in Blue Water, White Death caught

the 1950s and early 1960s, then the eye of a young Steven Spielberg,

as a world-renowned underwater who tasked the Taylors with filming

photographer and, above all, as the great white shark sequences for

a passionate conservationist. his 1975 thriller Jaws. Aitken delves

Taylor’s story is told through into the emotional response to the

archive footage taken over film, which, at the time, inspired

50 years, recent interviews with reckless shark-killing sprees and

her and commentary on her efforts increased public fear of sharks.

to raise awareness that sharks The director shows the couple’s

are endangered, coming from

luminaries such as explorer Jean-

Michel Cousteau (son of Jacques)

and Rodney Fox, a former film-

maker and spearfishing champion.

There is a significant narrative

shift as we hear how Valerie

and husband Ron experienced

their epiphany. They were both

spearfishing champions and they

loved the sea. But after killing

five sharks one day, the sight of

the carcasses saddened them. Ron COURTESY OF SUNDANCE INSTITUTE
T-B: PAUL SAYED; MIT PRESS; NETFLIX
realised that killing had become an

obsession: he decided to shoot only

with his camera. Valerie agreed.

Valerie Taylor, making
friends with an animal
she once hunted for sport

Views Culture

The games column

Mars was never going to be easy As real spacecraft arrive at the Red Planet, let’s
celebrate with Mars-based games like Red Faction: Guerrilla, which lets you destroy
at will, or Tharsis, where you captain a doomed spacecraft, says Jacob Aron

A Martian base
explodes in Red
Faction: Guerrilla

Jacob Aron is New Scientist’s DEEP SILVER VOLITION challenges of managing water,
deputy news editor. He has oxygen and electricity supplies
been playing video games THIS month sees a trio of real-life because letting players destroy as I plotted out various domed
for 25 years, but still isn’t habitats on the Martian soil. The
very good at them. Follow spacecraft arrive at Mars, so in everything makes it hard to game is just tricky enough that
him on Twitter @jjaron you feel like you are struggling
honour of their voyages I thought impose any narrative structure. to survive without it being too
Games disheartening when a bunch of
I’d run through my own jaunts to My favourite of the series, Red your colonists die in a dust storm.
Red Faction: Guerrilla
the Red Planet in game mode. Faction: Guerrilla, solves this by Offworld Trading Company
Deep Silver Volition is similar but puts you slightly
PC, PlayStation 3 and Mars is a common locale for throwing narrative structure out further into the future, with Mars
4, Xbox 360 and One, settled and corporations vying to
Nintendo Switch many first-person shooters, with of the window, then throwing the exploit its natural resources.
The game is ruthlessly capitalist
Kerbal Space Program games in the Doom, Destiny and window out of the window. You and sees you exploiting markets
to get one over on your rivals
Squad Call of Duty series all featuring play Alec Mason, a freedom- or make a hostile takeover.
PC, PlayStation 4, Xbox One
levels on its dry, dusty surface, but fighter attempting to overthrow If your dreams of being Elon
Tharsis Musk revolve around building
they rarely do very much rockets rather than becoming a
Choice Provisions billionaire, Kerbal Space Program
PC, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, interesting with the setting. “Kerbal Space Program is for you. With a bewildering array
Nintendo Switch of capsules, engines and more, you
One exception is Doom Eternal, lets you build pretty can pretty much construct any
34 | New Scientist | 13 February 2021 which I reviewed last year. As you spacecraft you can imagine.
fight your way through endless much any spacecraft Whether you can get it off the
ground is another matter – mine
demon hordes, it becomes clear you can imagine; mine tend to blow up. Once in orbit,
there is a whole solar system
you must journey to hell through tend to blow up” analogue to explore, with dusty
Duna as Kerbal’s version of Mars.
a portal at the centre of Mars.
Finally, for a darker look at what
How? Why, by commandeering a the tyrannical rulers of Mars, but astronauts heading to Mars might
face, there is Tharsis. It is set
massive laser on Mars’s moon forget all that – what matters here aboard the first crewed ship to the
Red Planet, which has been
Phobos and blasting a gigantic is that you are given mining damaged by a micrometeoroid
storm, meaning you have to repair
crater into the planet’s surface. charges, trucks and a really big the ship and shepherd the crew to
safety. Unusually, the game takes
Speaking of blowing things up hammer and then encouraged to inspiration from board games,
so you roll virtual dice to achieve
on Mars, the Red Faction series destroy everything in sight. It is objectives such as putting out a
fire. This leaves things slightly
makes a selling point of having incredibly satisfying, even if you more up to chance than I would
like, making it hard to strategise,
“destructible terrain”, essentially are setting the course of Martian but no one ever said getting to
Mars would be easy. ❚
letting you knock down walls and settlement back decades.

buildings to progress through the If you fancy something a bit

game. This is still a rarity in video more constructive, Surviving Mars,

games, partly because of the which I reviewed in 2019, puts you

technical difficulties in rendering in charge of building a colony

destruction on the fly, but also from the ground up. I enjoyed the

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Features

Plenty more
fish in the sea?

As the world’s appetite for seafood explodes, is there
really a way to eat it sustainably, asks Graham Lawton

T HE fish counter at my local supermarket 2.9 million motorised fishing vessels and a vast Let’s call this the “sea half-full” view.
has a chalkboard displaying how many and growing fish farming industry. More than Stocks of the top 10 most-caught marine
different species are on sale on any half of the world’s oceans by surface area are
given day. It is usually in the 20s, though now fished. Despite living on land, humans species, which together account for a third of
sometimes creeps above 30. As well as staples are a top marine predator. all the fish caught at sea, are more sustainable
such as cod, salmon and mackerel, it often has than the average. By mass, 78.7 per cent of
trout, sea bass, monkfish, langoustines, tuna, During recent Brexit negotiations, fishing seafood that ends up on the market comes
scallops, squid, catfish and flatfish. rights were a major sticking point, despite the from stocks the FAO deems sustainable.
fact that this represents a relatively small part
The chiller cabinet next door has more: of the economy, both in the European Union This rather upbeat assessment, however,
jellied eels and cockles in jars, mussels from and the UK. But the importance of the issue masks a messier situation beneath the waves.
Ireland, crab from Indonesia, prawns from underscores the way many feel about an “Many countries do not have research ships to
Ecuador. In the canned goods section I can inherent right to the bounty of the sea. go to sea and monitor the stocks,” says Manuel
also find oysters from South Korea, crab meat Barange, director of the FAO’s Fisheries and
from Vietnam, anchovies from the Pacific To learn about the impact of our appetite Aquaculture Policy and Resources Division.
Ocean, sardines from the north Atlantic for fish, a good first port of call is a report Even when they do, the science is challenging.
Ocean and tuna from the Indian Ocean. published every two years by the United It requires an estimate of the total biomass of
The freezers have yet more. Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization a species within a huge geographical area, and
(FAO). Called The State of World Fisheries and then an assessment of whether that is enough
This abundance makes my head swim. I Aquaculture (SOFIA), it is a monumental to support the maximum sustainable yield.
don’t eat mammal or bird meat, but I do eat undertaking. As soon as one edition is The margin for error is so large that a stock
seafood, and I want to consume it as ethically finished work starts on the next. is considered sustainable even if it is 20 per
and sustainably as possible. But I worry about cent lower than needed for the maximum
overfishing and the environmental impacts of Sea half-empty sustainable yield.
salmon farms and shrimp ponds. Most of the
products on offer bear a label certifying that The picture that the latest report, published Even with this wiggle room, the FAO says
they were caught or farmed sustainably, or at last year, paints of the world’s wild marine that about a third of the fish stocks it monitors
least “responsibly”. What does that mean? Who fisheries is surprisingly positive. Nearly are overfished, and hence on the road to
checks? Is it even possible? In other words, can two-thirds of commercial stocks are classed as collapse if nothing is done to stop the plunder.
I eat fish with a clear conscience? sustainable. That means there are enough fish In 1974, when the FAO first started counting,
to deliver the “maximum sustainable yield”, 90 per cent of stocks were sustainable. Today,
Seafood is big business. Every year we which is the most fish that can be caught now just 65 per cent are. Even if the level of fishing
collectively eat more than 155 million and in the future without the stock becoming stays the same, stocks will continue declining.
tonnes, about half of it wild-caught and half depleted. In other words, the annual catch is This is the “sea half-empty” view. “We cannot
farmed. To put that in perspective, we eat equal to the annual increase in biomass allow this to continue,” said Qu Dongyu, the
about 320 million tonnes of land-reared meat through growth and reproduction. The FAO director general of the FAO, at the launch of
a year. Yet consumption of fish is growing monitors just under 500 fish stocks, which the latest SOFIA report.
faster than that of meat – around 3.1 per cent produce about 75 per cent of the global catch.
a year versus 2.1 per cent. Since 1950, human Stocks are delineated both by geography and The failure to stop or even slow the decline
population has grown by about 175 per cent. species, for example north-east Atlantic cod. in fish stocks has happened in spite of three
In that same time, the amount of fish we eat By this reckoning, at least half – two-thirds global commitments to do exactly that. The
has increased by 750 per cent. of 75 per cent – of fish stocks are sustainable. first was signed by all 193 member states of
the FAO in 1995: the Code of Conduct for
This demand is sustained by a fleet of Responsible Fisheries. Next came the Aichi >

36 | New Scientist | 13 February 2021

ANTONIO SORTINO

13 February 2021 | New Scientist | 37

BLICKWINKEL/H. BLOSSEY/ALAMY half are in poor shape, battered by unregulated,
unreported and illegal fishing.
PHILIPPE LOPEZ/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
Hang on, you might think, what about the
From top: Aquaculture off the of the most overfished species, can live for FAO’s assessment that two-thirds of stocks
coast of Majorca, Spain; oyster 25 years, for example. “We are making progress, are sustainable? There is no contradiction,
farm in Arcachon Bay, France but it is geographically uneven and not fast says Barange. FAO and Aichi use different
enough,” says Barange. definitions of “stock”. FAO thinks in terms of
Biodiversity Targets (2010) and then the vast commercial stocks; Aichi in terms of
Sustainable Development Goals (2015), which As for the Aichi targets, forget it. The 20 goals smaller ones defined by ecology. “It depends
both pledged to end overfishing of wild stocks were supposed to be met by the end of last what units you use,” says Barange.
by 2020 and were adopted by the more than year, but, to a first approximation, have been
190 member nations of the UN. completely missed. The specific target for Another major concern is that sustainable
fish set out four aims: end overfishing, put doesn’t necessarily mean environmentally
According to Barange, the Code of recovery plans in place, eliminate significant benign. Large-scale commercial fishing, which
Conduct was a partial success. It slowed the negative impacts on threatened species and began in earnest around 1950, can have many
rate at which stocks were slipping into the vulnerable ecosystems, and remain within negative impacts on the wider ecosystem, such
“overfished” column. From 1974 to 1995, safe ecological limits. None were met. Some as the accidental catch of non-target species,
20 per cent of stocks flipped from sustainable progress has been made on overfishing and called by-catch. Most of the fish, seabirds and
to unsustainable. In the 25 years since, only recovery plans, but on the other two there has other unfortunate creatures that are caught by
another 5 per cent have become unsustainable. been “no significant change” since the targets accident are dead or dying by the time they are
“We are flattening the curve,” says Barange. were set in 2010. tossed back into the sea. By-catch has fallen
“But not sufficiently.” dramatically, from about 40 per cent of the
Conflicting definitions overall catch in 2000 to about 10 per cent in
The Sustainable Development Goals, 2014, but it is still considered “unsustainable”
however, have had no discernible impact. They Even where progress has been made, it is by the Convention on Biological Diversity. A
are framed explicitly in terms of managing fish insufficient. Where fish stocks are carefully recent study by WWF concludes that it kills
stocks: to end overfishing by 2020 and rebuild monitored and assessed and managed with more than a million marine mammals,
by 2030. The 2020 target was missed, and the an understanding of how species fit within a reptiles and birds every year.
2030 one is out of reach. Recovery of an broader ecosystem, overfishing has stopped
overfished stock takes two to three times the and recovery is under way. But only half of the Lost or discarded fishing equipment is also
species’ life span; an Atlantic cod, which is one world’s stocks are managed like this. The other a problem. According to some estimates,
between 640,000 and 800,000 tonnes of
“ghost gear” is cut adrift each year, killing
untold numbers of marine animals that get
caught up in it.

Certain fishing methods can also take a toll.
Bottom trawling, where nets are dragged along
the seabed, indiscriminately disrupts and
damages marine habitats, possibly even
contributing to pollution by undermining
the ability of sea-floor microbes to remove
harmful sediments.

According to the International Union for
Conservation of Nature, which keeps track of
the impacts of fisheries on threatened species,
fisheries have a net negative impact, and the
extinction pressure they create is growing.

Even the concept of sustainability has been
questioned. “The word ‘sustainable’ doesn’t
mean anything,” says Daniel Pauly at the
University of British Columbia in Vancouver.
“You can actually overfish sustainably – you
can reduce the stock to a tiny fraction of
its original abundance and fish the rest
sustainably. It’s like cutting an immense
forest, but leaving a few trees standing, which
you harvest sustainably.” The Canadian cod
fishery once yielded 200,000 tonnes a year, for

38 | New Scientist | 13 February 2021

instance. Then industrial fishing quadrupled FREDRIK NAUMANN/PANOS consumed directly by humans, and is projected
the catch, collapsing the stock in 1992. It has to increase as demand for seafood rises but the
since recovered somewhat, and now produces Bottom trawler fishing disrupts catch from the wild stays essentially flat.
around 20,000 tonnes a year – a number that is seabed habitats. It is also very
considered “sustainable”, says Pauly. carbon intensive Aquaculture is the fastest-growing sector
of global food production. The vast majority
“A better question to ask is, how much of fisheries are the worst, but that is even the happens in Asia, largely for local consumption.
the biomass that you had in the water in 1950 case for the lowest-impact wild fisheries. It is Western consumers mostly encounter it in the
is left,” he says. By that measure, nearly all because of the huge amount of fuel needed form of farmed salmon or shrimp. For those
of the world’s fish stocks are profoundly to power long-distance travel over weeks or consumers striving to make ethical choices,
depleted. “If you look at big fish, the biomass months, to haul heavy fishing gear, as well as that can spell trouble.
has diminished enormously, on the order of the energy costs of cooling or freezing the fish.
80 to 90 per cent.” Trouble on the farm
Overall, it is obvious that wild-caught fish
Sustainability also often fails to take come with some hard-to-swallow side orders. Fish farming has some well-known and
into account wider ecological factors. The “The story of our treatment of the oceans is a undeniable problems, says Grant Stentiford
langoustine fishery in the Firth of Forth in shameful one and a very frightening one,” says at the Centre for Environment, Fisheries
Scotland, for example, is sustainable, but only Tara Garnett at the University of Oxford’s Food and Aquaculture Science in Weymouth, UK.
because so many other species have been Climate Research Network. Farmed shrimp, for example, mostly comes
fished to extinction and the langoustines no from southern and South-East Asia and
longer have any natural predators, says Pauly. Maybe, then, the answer is aquaculture, aka Ecuador, reared in ponds that were created
fish farming. This large and rapidly growing by destroying mangrove swamps. “There
You also have to consider that fishing vessels sector already supplies 52 per cent of the fish has been a loss of habitat and biodiversity
are more powerful than they once were, says in relation to those industries. I don’t think
Pauly. “Even though the biomass has declined, anyone can really argue about that,” says
they are able to compensate by finding the few Stentiford. Add in the environmental cost
fish that remain, and being able to operate of feeding the shrimp and freighting them
where old trawlers would not be able to,” he to Western markets, and their calorie-for-
says. “The fact that our trawlers maintain calorie carbon footprint can sometimes
catches is not an indication that abundance exceed that of beef.
has remained the same.”
Salmon farming, meanwhile, has
If that wasn’t bad enough, there is also well-publicised problems with parasites,
the greenhouse gas emissions of wild fishing the overuse of antibiotics, escaped fish
operations to consider. According to a recent breeding with wild ones – potentially diluting
assessment, per kilocalorie of food produced, the gene pool of wild fish and in some cases
wild-caught fish has a bigger global warming leading to sterile offspring – and pollution of
footprint than pork, chicken or dairy (see the sea floor underneath the pens. Producers
“Carbon costs of food”, page 40). Trawler are aware of these problems and are trying to
clean up their act, says Stentiford, but there is
Global demand for fish keeps rising a long way to go.

Aquaculture is rapidly expanding to satisfy the world’s appetite for seafood Aquaculture is also considered in the Aichi
targets, which say that by 2020 it should be
80 “managed sustainably, ensuring conservation
of biodiversity”. Unsurprisingly, the target
60 Aquaculture wasn’t met. Although most artisanal
Wild-caught fisheries freshwater aquaculture is sustainable, sea-
based aquaculture – called mariculture – isn’t.
40 According to the latest assessment of these
targets, it is responsible for “large-scale loss
Million tonnes 20 and destruction of coastal wetlands (especially
mangroves), and pollution of soil and water”.
00
Another huge problem with aquaculture
80 is that, paradoxically, it often increases the
pressure on wild fisheries. Salmon, tuna, sea
60 bass and many other farmed species are top
predators that eat other fish. To meet this
40 demand, around 22 million tonnes of wild >

20

0 20 8
950 960 970 980 990 2000 20 0
Year

NOTE: EXCLUDES AQUATIC MAMMALS, CROCODILES, ALLIGATORS AND CAIMANS, SEAWEEDS AND OTHER AQUATIC PLANTS

13 February 2021 | New Scientist | 39

Farmed shrimp is

becoming more

common to meet

increased demand

fish are caught each year and processed

into fish meal. Most of these are sardines,

anchovies and other small fry that are edible

for humans. To make matters worse, they are

mostly caught in the waters of low-income

countries, which often have food security JAMES D. MORGAN/GETTY IMAGES

issues, and then exported to richer countries.

“This is completely insane,” says Pauly. In

terms of total biomass, to rear certain species

requires more wild fish for feed than you

ultimately get farmed fish as a result.

“Aquaculture is not a producer of fish, it’s

a consumer of fish. In part, aquaculture is

the reason why fisheries are going down.” “Not all aquaculture is wasteful – shellfish

The most egregious example is tuna

farming in the Mediterranean. “Farming of like mussels and oysters feed themselves”
tuna needs 15 to 20 kilograms [of fish meal]

per kilo of tuna,” says Pauly. “And when the

tuna is fattened it gets a first class ticket to

Japan because nobody else can afford it.” as mussels and oysters that feed themselves Currey. “That is the whole reason we exist.”

Researchers are working on solutions, but and create good habitats for other marine life. However, just 16 per cent of the world’s

they often involve other environmentally “Aquaculture is two sectors that are as separate wild-caught fish is landed by MSC-certified

problematic sources of protein such as soy. as growing vegetables and ranching cattle,” fleets. The rest may or may not be sustainable,

As a lover of seafood, but also of nature, I says Pauly. “The things that don’t need to be or may not have been assessed by an oversight

was starting to despair. Thankfully, not all fed are a net addition to the seafood available body. It is impossible to know. And the MSC

aquaculture is so wasteful. There is a category to the world. Or you feed 20 kilos of sardines currently takes no account of greenhouse gas

called “non-fed”, which includes shellfish such to a tuna to get 1 kilo of tuna.” emissions or animal welfare. The overall

For all this, fed aquaculture can still be more impact of the MSC divides scientific opinion,

efficient than land-based meat production, with some studies finding that it promotes

Carbon costs of food says Stentiford. Fish and crustaceans are sustainability, but others that it mostly

Only ruminant meat such as beef cold-blooded and aquatic so don’t have to certifies over-exploited stocks.
generates more greenhouse gas emissions burn energy to heat themselves or to support So how can we be confident our seafood
than farmed and wild caught fish their own body weight. “There is an inherent
choices are sustainable? Even fisheries

Maize efficiency in cold water animals that is not in scientists struggle to know what to buy.

Wheat mammals and birds,” he says. Still, in terms “Even as somebody who has a fairly deep

Rice of overall greenhouse gas emissions, most interest in this area, I don’t know the
Fresh Produce aquaculture is roughly equivalent to the answer,” says Stentiford.
production of pork, chicken and dairy.
Barange also admits that it is hard, and

Eggs says he just buys whatever is on the market

Dairy Trawling the aisles with reasonable confidence that it is
Poultry sustainable by FAO standards. Pauly passes
Farmed molluscs aside, buying fish means on the question. “Frankly, I don’t know,”

Pork stepping into a minefield of environmental he says. It really ought to be the job of

Non-trawling fishery destruction and social injustice. Yet it is governments, not individuals, to decide
Trawl fishery very hard, verging on the impossible, for what is and what isn’t acceptable, he says.
consumers to make informed choices.
Until that happens, we are rudderless,

Aquaculture There are several accreditation schemes trawling the supermarket aisles with no map.

for wild and farmed fish, but they are far But bear in mind that if you do eat fish, there’s

Tank Aquaculture* from comprehensive. One of the best almost certainly something fishy about it. ❚
known is the Marine Stewardship Council
Ruminant meat, including (MSC), which prides itself on its stringent Graham Lawton is a staff writer
beef and lamb sustainability standards and tracking of at New Scientist. Follow him
supply chains. “It is incredibly complicated @GrahamLawton.
05 0 5 20 25 to actually know what you are buying,”
says the MSC’s chief science officer, Rohan
Greenhouse gas emissions per kilocalorie
(Measured in grams of CO₂ equivalent)

*REQUIRING PUMPS AND FILTERS

40 | New Scientist | 13 February 2021

VANESSA BRANCHIFeatures

Learning to treat
covid-19

Changes in how we deal with serious coronavirus infections are
helping more people survive. Carrie Arnold reports on what is

now the gold-standard hospital treatment

13 February 2021 | New Scientist | 41

AS MUCH as the gloves and N95 JEFF PACHOUD/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
masks, Devan Kansagara’s constant
companion early last February was a to improved understanding of transmission oxygen levels seen in covid-19 patients sent
sense of gnawing anxiety. As a physician at and the first roll-out of vaccines, have affected doctors into panic, especially as they noticed
the Oregon Health Sciences University, he care for those who go to hospital. But there has that some people could crash into critical
braced himself for a tidal wave of covid-19 been a major change in how doctors deliver illness within minutes to hours, says Lewis
cases. A few weeks later, it arrived. Like oxygen. One of the big dangers that covid-19 Kaplan, a critical care physician at the
doctors around the world, Kansagara found poses is lung damage, which prevents enough University of Pennsylvania. So putting
himself having to care for patients with a oxygen from reaching the rest of the body. patients on mechanical ventilators early in
deadly disease he knew very little about. Most healthy people should have an oxygen their hospital stay seemed like the best option.
“Everyone was grasping at straws,” he says. saturation in their blood of between 95 and
100 per cent. In some people with covid-19, “We believed that we were doing exactly the
Ideas flooded in from all corners, ranging it can dip as low as 50 per cent. right thing,” says Kaplan. “If you got really sick
from the medically plausible to the utterly and were about to die, we would have to rescue
crackpot. Various clinical insights began to That is why official policies from around you—and we would rather treat than rescue.”
emerge from cities hit early by the outbreak the world say that people who show signs of
such as Wuhan in China and Milan in Italy. significant hypoxia – which include shortness With experience, they began to discover that
Doctors and researchers had to decide in real of breath, headache, fast heartbeat and a even people with worryingly low oxygen levels
time which strategies to pursue and what bluish tint to the skin – should go to hospital. can sometimes manage with less invasive
warranted further testing. kinds of ventilation. Early on, nearly three
Early in the pandemic, the staggeringly low quarters of patients in critical care were put on
It all happened at a blistering pace. Doctors ventilators – often very soon after admission.
swapped advice over WhatsApp, Facebook “People hospitalised Now it is about half that. Making the shift
and Twitter, changing clinical practice in hours with covid-19 now required many doctors to defy what they knew.
instead of years. Scientists launched clinical are far more likely
trials, enrolled participants, analysed data to survive than at the Research suggests that using less-invasive
and rapidly disseminated results. start of the pandemic” oxygen delivery methods, such as nasal
cannulas and continuous positive airway
Some pinned their hopes on new, life-saving pressure masks, helped doctors to reduce the
medicines. Yet while thousands of drugs are number of people who needed to be sedated.
being tested or are in development, few have But perhaps most crucially, it reserved
yet proven to make much difference (see mechanical ventilators for the very sickest >
“Where are the medicines?”, page 44).

In spite of this, we have made
tremendous progress since those early
days. Although outcomes vary by location,
and new variants pose new challenges, people
hospitalised with covid-19 now are much more
likely to survive than they would have been at
the start of the pandemic. This is largely thanks
to three major changes.

The vast majority of people infected with
SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes covid-19,
won’t need hospital care, says Anita Simonds,
a respiratory physician at the National Heart
and Lung Institute at Imperial College London.
But about 3.5 per cent will need to be looked
after in hospital, according to data from the
COVID Tracking Project and the Johns Hopkins
University COVID-19 Dashboard.

A wide array of measures, from better
protective gear and greater test availability,

42 | New Scientist | 13 February 2021

The view from intensive care

Fears about ventilators are costing people their lives, 
Alison Pittard tells Tiffany O’Callaghan

Estimated 28-day mortality (%) Placing people on As an anaesthetist and intensive Alison Pittard
their fronts allows care specialist, Alison Pittard has is dean of the
oxygen to reach been on the front lines of the covid-19 Faculty of
more of the lungs pandemic, which she says has forced Intensive Care
her profession to rapidly adapt how Medicine
Reducing deaths they develop new practices. As well in the UK
as concern about burnout and moral
Treatment changes have cut the number of people injury among her colleagues, she time, so we can say to them, “This
who die in critical care in England after having had worries that misconceptions about is what we’re planning on doing. It
covid-19 for 28 days, but some of those gains intensive care are driving people to doesn’t look like you’re managing very
were eroded when a second wave of infections turn down life-saving treatment. well.” They can often see that they’re
swamped hospitals struggling, they’re getting tired. It’s
Tiffany O’Callaghan: How do very frightening for them. But you can
50 you decide if someone needs have that conversation and explain
a ventilator? what we’re going to need to do.
40 Alison Pittard: We take each patient
as an individual, look at their blood Usually, we can see a steady
30 oxygen levels, their respiratory rate, deterioration and it becomes fairly
Beginning of how tired they are, whether it’s obvious to us that the only option
the second becoming difficult for them to available is to sedate the patient and
wave breathe, how distressed they are. put them on a ventilator, because
without it they would die.
20 We have several non-invasive
modes of ventilation, including kinds How difficult are
10 that help to support breathing by those conversations?
providing a little bit of pressure to help One thing we’re finding in intensive
0 keep the lungs open, rather than just care is that people are really scared of
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec supplemental oxygen, so you don’t being sedated and ventilated because
2020 have to work quite as hard to get they think that it kills people. That’s not
that big breath. the case. The disease kills you.
SOURCE: INTENSIVE CARE NATIONAL AUDIT AND RESEARCH CENTRE
If these are not enough or if the It’s really difficult for staff when you
patient is becoming really distressed, can see a patient in front of you who
then we would sedate them and insert desperately needs to be sedated and
a tube down into their windpipe and ventilated, but they refuse. They would
use a ventilator. rather just try and avoid it and they are
adamant. And we know that if we
Are you able to talk can’t do that then they’re going to die.
patients through this?
I think people often get the impression My plea is for people to put their
that in intensive care everything is trust in us. Allow us to share our
rushed and there are emergencies knowledge and experience. Take our
going on all the time. And it can be advice. We don’t want to see people
like that. But certainly for these types die unnecessarily, and if we know that
of patients, we’re watching them sedating and ventilating somebody
very, very carefully and closely and gives them a chance of survival, that
can start to see when they are getting has to be better than no chance. We
tired, that they’re heading towards only ever want to make people better.
needing to be ventilated.

We are speaking to patients all the

13 February 2021 | New Scientist | 43

Where are the medicines?

There have been thousands of The University of Oxford’s monoclonal antibodies act like the pandemic were pinned on
randomised controlled trials of AVID-CC trial began in September proteins produced by the immune remdesivir, developed by Gilead
prospective drugs for covid-19, 2020 to test adalimumab, which is system and are being investigated Sciences to combat Ebola. Tests
but so far regulatory agencies used to treat inflammatory bowel both for their ability to treat had shown it was safe but not
have approved only three: disease and arthritis. The study was infected people and to prevent effective against Ebola, but maybe
the antivirals remdesivir and prompted by observations that infection (see “Covid-19 would work against covid-19.
favipiravir, and the widely people with covid-19 in care prophylactics”, below).
used anti-inflammatory homes who were already taking In May 2020, early results of a
dexamethasone (see main story). adalimumab were less likely to The US Food and Drug trial, including more than 1000
need hospital care. That trial is still Administration has granted people hospitalised with covid-19,
Making sure new compounds under way. emergency use authorisations showed that remdesivir decreased
are safe and effective medicines for monoclonal antibodies from recovery time from 15 to 10 days.
takes a long time, and the broad ANTIBODIES are the body’s pharmaceutical firms Eli Lily and In the US, UK and EU, the drug has
strategy has been to focus on defenders. When we are infected Regeneron – and two studies been approved for hospital patients
three main kinds. This is the with a pathogen, our immune show that these drugs can cut with severe disease and its use has
progress so far. system produces these proteins, hospitalisations and deaths. As yet, become fairly routine. However,
which bind to the invader. This however, both the US National other trials, such as the World
IMMUNE MODULATORS should alerts the rest of the immune Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Health Organization’s Solidarity
work by reining in the body’s system to a pathogen’s presence Infectious Diseases Society of Therapeutics Trial, including
potentially dangerous overactive and prevents it from multiplying. America say there isn’t enough 11,000 adults in 30 countries,
immune response to covid-19, as evidence for their routine use. showed no benefit to survival. The
is the case with dexamethasone. It had been hoped that injecting WHO doesn’t recommend the drug
Tocilizumab and sarilumab, antibodies from people who have A trial investigating two for any patient.
already approved for use in recovered from covid-19 might monoclonal antibodies synthesised
autoimmune conditions in the UK protect those who are newly by biotech firm Brii Biosciences “We’re trying to resolve some
and US, have been investigated as infected, but trials of this kicked off in January to see if they of these differences in data on the
treatments for covid-induced convalescent blood plasma can prevent hospitalisation and NIH COVID-19 guidelines panel,”
pneumonia in 13 countries in have had mixed results. The UK’s death at 28 days of infection. More says Clifford Lane at the US
people over the age of 50 as part RECOVERY Trial stopped recruiting than a dozen other studies of National Institute of Allergy
of the REMAP-CAP trial. In January, people to test convalescent plasma monoclonal antibodies are under and Infectious Diseases.
it was announced that the two after preliminary data showed it way globally.
drugs together reduced the need wasn’t beneficial. Antiviral drugs developed for
for ventilators and intensive care ANTIVIRALS work by stopping a other diseases are also being
treatment by a quarter. Single antibodies have also virus from replicating. Many early investigated. Influenza drug
been synthesised in the lab. These hopes for a quick end to the favipiravir has been approved to
treat covid-19 in China, Italy, India
Covid-19 prophylactics and Russia. HIV drug lopinavir-
ritonavir unfortunately hasn’t
Vaccines are the best people living in the same concluding that the proven successful in clinical trials.
option to prevent covid-19 house as someone with anti-malarial drug
infections, but they still aren’t covid-19. Eli Lilly’s hydroxychloroquine makes Still, broad-spectrum antivirals
widely available throughout monoclonal antibody called no difference to recovery remain a goal. In August 2020, the
most of the world. Even once bamlanivimab showed from covid-19, and that Corona Accelerated R&D in Europe
they have been widely rolled similar benefits to nursing there isn’t enough evidence (CARE) consortium launched to
out, there will be people who home residents. for other drugs. develop monoclonal antibodies
can’t be vaccinated. So we and broad-spectrum antivirals
need other ways to protect A review of other Areas in Africa where over the next five years. Even if it
people from infection. potential prophylactic drugs the anti-parasitic drug doesn’t find anything to help this
currently in trials was less ivermectin is widely used time, it will help us prepare for the
Early findings on encouraging. It primarily have noticeably lower rates next emerging infectious disease,
monoclonal antibodies called included existing medicines, of covid-19 infections, which says CARE co-leader Kumar
casirivimab and imdevimab rather than new compounds has inspired hopes that Saikatendu at biopharmaceutical
from pharmaceutical firm being developed specifically it could be an effective firm Takeda, a CARE participant.
Regeneron have shown that for covid-19, but joined prophylactic. This is now
they may prevent disease in the chorus of research under investigation. “The expectation ultimately will
be to create not only an effective
medicine, but an affordable
medicine that can be globally
distributed, even to remote places
of Africa and Asia,” he says.

44 | New Scientist | 13 February 2021

Using more methods
to provide oxygen
reserves ventilators
(left) for the sickest

ALAIN JOCARD/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES “We announced the
results at lunchtime,
it was policy by teatime,
and it was saving lives
by the weekend”

patients, who have no other option people hospitalised with covid-19 came The drug is also cheap and readily available,
(see “The view from intensive care”, page 43). last summer in the form of a cheap, readily meaning that nearly every hospitalised
available steroid first used for rheumatoid covid-19 patient who needs help breathing
A second major change was born of arthritis: dexamethasone. in most high and middle-income countries
desperation. Intensive care specialists had long is routinely given dexamethasone.
known that placing sedated, ventilated people It quickly became clear that what often
face down in the prone position makes it easier killed patients wasn’t the virus itself, but To a casual observer, it might seem that not
for oxygen to reach more of the lungs. Early in the body’s own immune system trying to much of significance has changed in the way
the pandemic, in places like Milan there simply fight off the infection. For some people with hospitals treat covid-19 patients. Far from it,
weren’t enough ventilators to go around. With the coronavirus, an out-of-control immune says Simonds. Over time, the cumulative
no other options, doctors had people lie on response could cause deadly collateral damage effects of these three changes – and a variety
their stomachs. This “awake proning” hadn’t to the lungs, heart, blood vessels, kidneys and of other small, subtle shifts in patient care –
really been done before, and certainly not as brain. Much of the search for drugs has focused have helped reduce mortality in hospitalised
a matter of routine. on compounds that might help tamp down covid-19 patients by about one-quarter. And
this overblown response. many of these improvements are within reach
Buying time for much of the global community. A course of
Early on, doctors tried medicines already dexamethasone is cheap and widely available,
A similar scenario played out at hospitals approved to treat autoimmune disorders. as are nasal cannulas. Prone positioning is free.
around the world. At the height of New York’s Disappointingly, early clinical trials showed no
surge in early April, doctors at Columbia benefit. Then in July 2020, the RECOVERY Trial Now the goal is to help these standards
University had eight patients who needed at the University of Oxford posted results for continue to evolve as we learn more, says Janet
mechanical ventilators simultaneously, but the anti-inflammatory dexamethasone. Many Diaz at the World Health Organization. The
only enough staff to do one patient at a time. immune modulators are precise, switching sheer volume of clinical trials that emerged in
To buy precious minutes, they placed three off specific parts of the immune response. the wake of covid-19 have made it challenging
patients in the prone position. An hour later, Dexamethasone is a much blunter weapon – at times to sift the high-quality data from the
all three saw their breathing improve so much more a sledgehammer than a chisel, says rest. That makes it really difficult to make
they no longer needed ventilators. Within Kaplan. But the study found that hospitalised many definitive statements, says Clifford Lane
days, the doctors launched a clinical trial, covid-19 patients needing supplementary at the US National Institute of Allergy and
and other universities followed suit. Studies oxygen or invasive ventilation who also Infectious Disease. For now, physicians still
showed that prone positioning helped keep received low-dose dexamethasone were rely on clinical judgement and educated
hospitalised patients on non-invasive one-third less likely to die. guesses far more than he would like. ❚
ventilation from getting sicker and needing
to be admitted into intensive care. It isn’t just “It really did completely change everything,” Carrie Arnold is a writer based in
drugs that have saved lives, says Simonds. says Martin Landray, an epidemiologist at the Virginia. Follow her @edibites
University of Oxford and co-director of the
That said, one drug has been a game RECOVERY Trial. “We announced the results
changer. The third major alteration to care for at lunchtime, it was NHS policy by teatime,
and it was saving lives by the weekend.”

13 February 2021 | New Scientist | 45

Features Interview

“Contact with intelligent
aliens would have

dramatic implications
for the psyche of the

human species”

Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb has
drawn criticism for suggesting that
‘Oumuamua, a weird object that passed
through our solar system, could be an
alien spacecraft. But scientists must keep
an open mind, he tells Leah Crane

46 | New Scientist | 13 February 2021

ROCIO MONTOYA IN 2017, something strange came hurtling alone. Loeb’s colleagues have since come up probably typical, just like ants on a sidewalk.
through our cosmic neighbourhood. with various natural explanations for what we As far as I’m concerned, we would be likely
Astronomers only spotted it once it was glimpsed of ‘Oumuamua’s features, including
already on its way out, so they didn’t get a the idea that it is some sort of giant fractal to find evidence if we were to search, but if we
proper look. But from the few observations we snowflake. But he is adamant we should at assume that we will never find anything,
did get, it was clear that the object wasn’t from least be open to the possibility that it could be obviously we will never discover it.
around here – its trajectory indicated that evidence of the existence of extraterrestrial
it came from another star system. It was civilisations. Do you think we have already seen evidence
dubbed ‘Oumuamua, which means “scout” of alien life and we just haven’t been able
in Hawaiian, and categorised as the first Loeb has now written a book about it called to understand?
interstellar object we have ever seen in our Extraterrestrial: The first sign of intelligent life Well, it is possible. There are many stories
cosmic neighbourhood. beyond Earth. Here, he tells New Scientist about in the history of science that show that
the possibility of advanced alien life and how astronomers are very often misguided
Not long after ‘Oumuamua was spotted, Avi humans might respond to it. and overlook observations that they do not
Loeb, an astrophysicist at Harvard University, understand or that are not in fashionable areas
made waves by proposing that it may be a piece Leah Crane: You say in your new book that this of astronomy. Even though the data might
of alien technology. “‘Oumuamua may be a is your favourite question, so it seems a good have showed up in papers, in images, people
fully operational probe sent intentionally to place to start – are we alone? just didn’t pay attention, didn’t try to explain
Earth vicinity by an alien civilization,” Loeb Avi Loeb: Out of modesty, I would say no, it. And history repeats itself.
wrote in a pre-print paper. because we know that over half of the sun-like
stars have a planet of the size of the Earth, It sounds like the upshot is that there are so many
It is certainly weird. Observations suggested roughly the same distance from the star as the things we have missed, either wilfully or not,
it is likely to be either flat or cigar-shaped, Earth is from the sun. If you arrange for similar that we now know are real, and the same could
tumbling end over end every 7 hours or so and circumstances, you are likely to get a similar be true for extraterrestrial life.
accelerating at a pace seemingly greater than outcome. So, out of modesty, I would say we’re Very often prophecies are self-fulfilling – >
could be accounted for by gravitational forces

13 February 2021 | New Scientist | 47