Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 Profit Margins, Sectors ...

Stock Market Briefing:
S&P 500 Profit Margins,

Sectors & Industries

Yardeni Research, Inc.

January 20, 2016

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683
[email protected]

Joe Abbott

732-497-5306
[email protected]

Please visit our sites at
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thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents 3-6
7
S&P 500 Operating Profit Margins 8
S&P 500 Profit Margin
S&P 500 Sectors Operating Profit Margins 5-6
S&P 500 Sectors Forecasted & Actual Profit Margins 7
Consumer Discretionary 8
Consumer Staples 9
Energy
Health Care 10
Industrials 11
Information Technology 12
Materials 13
Materials & Telecommunication Services

January 20, 2016 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 Profit Margins, Sectors & Industries Yardeni Research, Inc.

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S&P 500 Profit Margin 12
Q3
Figure 1.
12 S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN 9

(percent, quarterly)

9

66

33

00

-3 -3
-6
Operating (10.6)
-6 Reported (8.2)

-9 -9

yardeni.com
-12 -12

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation (revenues and reported EPS) and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S (operating EPS).

Figure 2. 11
11 S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN Q3
10 (percent, trailing four-quarter average)
10

99

88

77

66

55

44

3 Operating (10.5) 3
2 Reported (8.0) 2

11

yardeni.com
00

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation (revenues and reported EPS) and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S (operating EPS).

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S&P 500 Profit Margin 12
Q3
Figure 3.
12 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN 10

(percent) 8

10 Quarterly (10.6)
Trailing Four-Quarter
Average (10.5)

8

66

44

yardeni.com
22

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Figure 4. 15
15 S&P 500 REPORTED PROFIT MARGIN
10
(percent) Q3
10
5
5

0 0
quarterly (8.2) -5

-5 trailing four-quarter average (8.0)

-10 -10

yardeni.com
-15 -15

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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S&P 500 Profit Margin

Figure 5. 16 17 12
12 S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN 1/14 11
10
(percent, using analysts’ average earnings and revenues forecasts)

11 15

10

99

88

Consensus Forecasts

Annual

7 52-Week Forward* 7

6 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 yardeni.com
2004 6

2016 2017

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.and Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 6. Q3 1/14 11
11 S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN 10

(percent)

10

99

88

7 S&P 500 Profit Margin 7
52-week forward*

Operating Profit Margin
(trailing four-quarter average)
66

yardeni.com 5
5

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

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S&P 500 Profit Margin Q3 2300
1/13 2100
Figure 7. 1900
11 S&P 500 & PROFIT MARGIN 1700
1500
S&P 500 Index (1890.3) 1300
10

Operating Trailing
4-Quarter Profit Margin (9.0)
9

8

1100
7

900
6 700

500
5

300

yardeni.com
4 100

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 8. 2200
12 S&P 500 & FORWARD PROFIT MARGIN
2000
S&P 500 Index (1890.3) 1/13
11 1/14

Forward Profit Margin (10.6) 1800

10 1600

9 1400

1200
8

1000

7
800

6 yardeni.com
2004 600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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S&P 500 Sectors Operating Profit Margins

Figure 9. INDUSTRIALS 12
14 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
12 Operating Profit Margin* 10
10 (trailing 4-quarter, %) Q3

8 Q3 8
6

4 Sector (7.3) (9.2) 6
S&P 500 (9.2)
2

0 4
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

12 CONSUMER STAPLES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 20
Q3 17
10
14
8
Q3 11

6 (6.5) (17.5) 8
4 5

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

12 ENERGY MATERIALS 12
10
9
8
6
Q3 6
3 (0.3)
0 Q3 (5.9) 4
2
-3
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

18 FINANCIALS TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES 14
12
16 Q3
14
10

12 8
Q3
10
6
8 (6.8)
6 (15.3) 4

4 2
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

16 HEALTH CARE UTILITIES 12
Q3 10
14
8
12
(10.1) 6
10 yardeni.com 4
8 Q3
6 (8.4) 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

4
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

* Operating margin in percent and based on trailing 4-quarter EPS and sales.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Page 7 / January 20, 2016 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 Profit Margins, Sectors & IndustriesYardeni Research, Inc.

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S&P 500 Sectors Forecasted & Actual Profit Margins

Figure 10. Q3 1/12 INDUSTRIALS 11
9 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 10
1/12 9
7 Q3 8
7
5 Operating Profit Margin* 6
3 Actual 4-Q Trailing
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Implied Forward

1
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

7.00 CONSUMER STAPLES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 25
20
6.75 1/12 1/12 15
Q3 Q3
6.50

6.25

6.00 10

5.75 5
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

15 ENERGY MATERIALS 12
10
12 1/12 8
Q3 6
9 4
2
6 0
3 1/12
0 Q3 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-3
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

20 FINANCIALS 1/12 TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES 16
Q3 14
15 1/12 12
Q3 10
10 8
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 6
5 4
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2

12 HEALTH CARE UTILITIES Q3 1/12 10.5
10.0
11
1/12 9.5
10

9.0

9 yardeni.com 8.5
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 8.0
Q3
8

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

* Actual from S&P based on trailing 4-quarter EPS and sales. Forecast implied from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S consensus forward EPS
and sales, and pushed one year ahead.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation (trailing 4-quarter margin) and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S (forward margin).

Page 8 / January 20, 2016 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 Profit Margins, Sectors & IndustriesYardeni Research, Inc.

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Consumer Discretionary 20
15
Figure 11.
20 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent)

15

10 10
Q3

55

0 0
Consumer Discretionary Sector (7.3)

Advertising (6.7)

Automobile Manufacturers (4.2) -5
-5

Auto Parts & Equipment (7.0)

Publishing (3.6)

yardeni.com
-10 -10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 12.

18 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 18
(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent) 16
14
16 Consumer Discretionary Sector (7.3) Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines (8.8) 12

14 Casinos & Gaming (10.4) Restaurants (13.5)

Movies & Entertainment (14.9)

12

10 10

88
Q3

66

44

22

yardeni.com
00

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics.

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Consumer Discretionary 9

Figure 13. 8
9 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY Q3

(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent) 7
8

7

66

55

44

33

2 Consumer Discretionary Sector (7.3) 2
Apparel Retail (7.9)

1 Department Stores (5.2) 1

Specialty Stores (4.9)
yardeni.com

00

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 14. 20
20 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
15
(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent)
Consumer Discretionary Sector (7.3) 10
Q3
15 Household Appliances (4.5)
Homebuilding (7.5) 5
Computer & Electronics Retail (2.7)
Home Improvement Retail (6.7)

10

5

0 0

Margins capped at -2%
due to extreme values.

yardeni.com
-5 -5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics.

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Consumer Staples 16
14
Figure 15. 12
16 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: CONSUMER STAPLES 10

(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent)

14 Consumer Staples Sector (6.5)
Household Products (13.5)
Packaged Foods & Meats (8.0)

12 Personal Products (6.7)

10

88

Q3
66

yardeni.com
44

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 16. 30
30 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: CONSUMER STAPLES 25
20
(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent) 15

25 Consumer Staples Sector (6.5)
Brewers (18.7)
Drug Retail (4.0)

20 Soft Drinks (13.6)
Tobacco (26.6)

15

10 10

Q3
55

yardeni.com
00

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics.

Page 7 / January 20, 2016 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 Profit Margins, Sectors & IndustriesYardeni Research, Inc.

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Energy 12
10
Figure 17. 8
12 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: ENERGY

(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent)

10 Energy Sector (0.3)
Integrated Oil & Gas (7.5)
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing (3.6)

8

66

44

22

Q3
00

yardeni.com
-2 -2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 18. 40
40 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: ENERGY 35
30
(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent) 25
35 20

Energy Sector (0.3)
30 Oil & Gas Drilling (15.9)

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (8.2)
25 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (4.6)

20

15 15

10 10

55
0 Q3 0

-5 -5

yardeni.com
-10 -10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics.

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Health Care 45
40
Figure 19.
45 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: HEALTH CARE

(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent)
40

35 35

30 30
Health Care Sector (8.4) 25
20
25 Biotechnology (41.7) 15
Health Care Equipment (18.4)

20
Managed Health Care (3.9)

15

10 10
Q3

55

yardeni.com
00

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 20. 30
30 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: HEALTH CARE 25

(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent)

25

20 20

Health Care Sector (8.4) Pharmaceuticals (24.7)

15 Health Care Facilities (3.9) Health Care Distributors (1.3) 15

10 10
Q3

55

00

yardeni.com
-5 -5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics.

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Industrials 13
12
Figure 21.
13 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: INDUSTRIALS

(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent)
12

11 11

10 10
Q3

99

88

77

66

55

4 Industrials Sector (9.2) 4

Industrial Conglomerates (11.5)

3 Construction Machinery Industrial Machinery (9.5) 3
& Heavy Trucks (7.2)

yardeni.com
22

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 22. 12
12 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: INDUSTRIALS 11
10
(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent) Q3
11 9

Industrials Sector (9.2)

Aerospace & Defense (8.4)
10

Electrical Components
& Equipment (10.6)
9

88

77

66

55

44

yardeni.com
33

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics.

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Information Technology 35

Figure 23. 30
35 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
25
(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent)
30 20
Q3
25 Information Technology Sector (17.5)
Application Software (14.3) 15
Data Processing & Outsourcing (17.5)

20 IT Consulting & Other Services (15.6)
Systems Software (23.9)

15

10 10

55

00

yardeni.com
-5 -5

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 24.

30 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 30
(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent)
25 Information Technology Sector (17.5) 25
Communications Equipment (23.3)
20
20 Q3

15 15

10 10

55

00

-5 Semiconductors (20.0) -5

Semiconductor Equipment (15.8)
yardeni.com

-10 -10

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics.

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Materials 12
10
Figure 25.
12 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: MATERIALS

(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent)

10

88

6 Q3 6

44

22

0 0
Materials Sector (5.9)

Aluminum (4.1) -2
-2 Paper Products (6.5)

Steel (3.0) yardeni.com
-4 -4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 26. 25
25 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: MATERIALS 20
15
(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent)

20 Materials Sector (5.9)
Diversified Chemicals (8.6)
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals (17.6)
Industrial Gases (13.0)

15 Specialty Chemicals (10.2)

10 10

Q3
55

yardeni.com
00

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics.

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Materials & Telecommunication Services 30
25
Figure 27. 20
30 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: MATERIALS 15

(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent)

25 Materials Sector (5.9)
Gold (7.4)
Metal & Glass Containers (5.8)

20 Diversified Metals & Mining (5.1)
Paper Packaging (6.1)

15

10 10
Q3

55

00

yardeni.com
-5 -5

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 28.

16 S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES 16
(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent) 14
14 Telecommunication Services Sector (6.8) 12
Integrated Telecommunication (10.6)

12

10 10

88

Q3
66

44

22

yardeni.com
00

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics.

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