FoUrbanisation interactive_Final

Future of
Urbanisation

Scenarios

GREATER BANGKOK

Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas

Technotopia Urban Decentralised Accelerated Transforming
playgrounds resilience generations lifestyles

Morphological Actions
box

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

A message from the future

WELCOME TO... 2050!

Greater Bangkok has dramatically transformed since 2021. The great megacity is a wonderous place for people to
live, work, play and learn. Buildings and infrastructure have evolved to meet the challenges that climate change has
brought. The world is now highly urbanised and has changed a lot. Some countries have fared better than others:
some due to their geographic location but, generally, those which have thrived were proactive in adopting the United
Nations Sustainable Development Goals and had strong economic and environmental resilience policies and plans.

2020 was an inflection point for people and the planet. COVID-19 highlighted key vulnerabilities including health,
economics and supply chains. It also demonstrated how adaptable people could be. The realisation of how quickly
things could change dramatically altered the path into the future. Many environmental tipping points had already
been passed and caused immeasurable loss.

Innovative strategies coupled with new technologies provided solutions to improve both planetary and human health.
A resilient future, however, was achieved by drawing from indigenous knowledge and grounding all decisions on
strong culture and maintaining the Thai values of health, happiness, family and wellness.

Greater Bangkok emerged as a beacon of hope in the Southeast Asian region. A guiding principle – wellbeing for
all – emerged as an aspiration to see human and natural systems thrive together. At first, the impact of this principle
was akin to a gentle stream – a simple conversation about the future of our rapidly growing city. Over the decades,
however, that trickle turned into a mighty torrent. In time every decision was measured against this principle.

As you explore the five plausible futures of Greater Bangkok 2050, use the information to assess risks and possibilities
for the future. Use this knowledge to consider how the decisions that you make today can help you to write the future
that you want.

2

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Introduction

Foreword

As humankind confronts growing To meet the challenges that will be faced
social and environmental challenges, in the following decades we need to
many of the solutions must consider bold approaches and
come from cities. demonstrate leadership in sustainability.

Visit Malaisirirat Cities are where these challenges For MQDC, an insight that Malcolm Smith A global crisis is looming When we consider our urban
are most acute, but they are stands out in this analysis where urbanization has rapidly areas, we need to focus on how
Chief Executive Officer also where we can achieve the is that we must cherish and Arup Fellow increased and our planetary people live but also how they
MQDC most dramatic improvements. conserve the Thai heritage that resources are stretched to the interact to create a community
informs this study. The strong limit. The COVID-19 pandemic where both people and the
In exploring the future of values of kindness, caring, and is demonstrating both the natural environment thrive.
urbanization and Greater community for which Thailand is importance of wellness of our
Bangkok, this report comes at a celebrated can guide us to the people and the vulnerabilities We hope that this report creates
moment when ambitious thinking future we seek of “For All Well- of the human population. discussions about the future
about the future is critical. Being”, where all life flourishes. and inspires a change to a
To become truly sustainable, Foresight thinking helps us sustainable future and helps
cities need new approaches in Welcome to a vision of how to explore the future and to achieve wellbeing for all.
areas from transport to energy, urban life can transform. I think systematically about
agriculture, healthcare, and hope that, like us at MQDC, steering towards a preferred
education. Several alarming you will find inspiration in its future. Arup is very excited
megatrends and challenges creative exploration of the to have collaborated with
now demand a concerted vast changes now looming. MQDC to explore the future
response from public bodies of urbanisation for Greater
and private organizations. Bangkok. Partnerships where
entities have aligned values can
create the best outcomes.

3

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

As cities grow, they benefit from economies of scale
and deeper social, cultural and economic networks.
However, rapid urbanisation in ASEAN can make
it difficult for urban infrastructure development to
keep pace.
This in turn gives rise to issues related to economic
inequality, congestion, as well as environmental and
health costs.
However, fast technological advancements present
cities with numerous opportunities to prepare for
and tackle these urbanisation challenges.1

DATO LIM JOCK HOI, SECRETARY-GENERAL OF ASEAN

4

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Introduction

Background

Arup has collaborated with FutureTales Lab from MQDC
to use foresight methodologies to explore the future of
Greater Bangkok

In 2021 more than half the COVID-19 provides a stark Following the urbanisation
world’s population live in cities. reminder of how vulnerable patterns of other megacities,
Two-thirds are projected to live cities can be. This crisis comes infrastructure and urban
in cities by 2050. In Asia, this at a time of great global development are reaching
transformation has happened transformation. Climate change, well beyond the Bangkok
recently and rapidly. Just 30 resource consumption and Metropolitan Area (BMA).
years ago, the urbanisation rate declining biodiversity are key Enabled by government
was only 31%. Today it is over concerns. Urban dwellers are economic and land-use policy,
50%. Thailand’s urbanisation often larger consumers than rural the ‘Greater Bangkok’ region is
has tracked a similar path.2 counterparts. Cities account for becoming a hotspot for exciting
over 70% of greenhouse gas new industries and communities.
This shift has brought about a emissions and consume almost
new urban form – the megacity, 80% of the world’s energy.3
or urban agglomerations of 10
million or more people. Thailand’s At the same time, technologies of
primary city Bangkok is among the Fourth Industrial Revolution
the world’s 34 megacities with are booming, energy systems
a population of over 10.5 million, are transitioning to renewables
doubling in just 35 years.2 and transportation is electrifying.
Social media is opening new
Rapid urbanisation and cities of horizons, while online platforms
this scale tend to be associated bring businesses, governments
with haphazard planning and citizens closer together.
and development, causing
social and environmental
costs and vulnerabilities.

5

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

The Eastern Economic Corridor makers, city developers and the futures and what these mean
(EEC) is a notable example of community. Because of the long for the people who live in them.
extra-urban development outside lead time between planning Think about what is good and
Bangkok’s formal boundaries. decisions and establishment bad about these futures and
This special economic zone is of new infrastructure and what would need to be done to
located east of the BMA, and settlements, decisions often have achieve a preferrable future.
consists of newly expanded to be made decades in advance.
highways and motorways, high The final section of this
speed rail, upgraded ports and How to use this report? report puts forward some
industry clusters. Connecting recommended actions. Please
Bangkok with Pattaya City Arup’s Foresight + Innovation build on these and collaborate
approximately 150km away, team have collaborated with with stakeholders across industry,
the EEC is expected to attract MQDC’s FutureTales Lab to government and the community
foreign investment, create explore the question: What to make critical choices that will
new smart cities and promote will urbanisation look like in make Greater Bangkok a thriving
‘S-curve industries’ as part Greater Bangkok in 2050? city-region for people and the
of the Thai Government’s environment they depend on.
Thailand 4.0 plan to transition Foresight offers tools and
to an innovation economy.4 methods to enable multiple
stakeholders to analyse future
Forward planning, vision risks and opportunities. Please
and ambition are needed to use this report to consider
ensure a megacity’s liveability, the trends that are shaping
sustainability and resilience the future of urbanisation
for the long term. Ongoing in Greater Bangkok. Read
urbanisation of the region through and interact with the
requires wise choices from policy five plausible futures that we
have developed. Imagine these

6

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

U R B A N I S AT I O N

Transforming new and
existing urban areas to
attract people and meet the
future needs of communities
and the environment

7

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Methodology

Focal topic

This foresight study examined These elements are enabled by Framework of key urbanisation LIVE WORK
the future of urbanisation the infrastructure that is built outcomes used in this foresight study
through the concept of to form the city, which includes Our lifestyle, where we The types of jobs
‘wellbeing for all’, which reflects transport systems. Crucially, the live and any related issues we perform, working
an aspiration of FutureTales built and human dimensions
Lab to imagine cities where of cities are all underpinned by that impact liveability conditions and new skills
humans and natural systems a healthy planet where nature
experience optimum levels of and biodiversity are thriving Nature and PLAY LEARN
health, happiness and fulfillment. and therefore provide a healthy biodiversity
environment in which to live. The ways we stay active Lifelong learning as well
The concept of wellbeing is Sustain in urban spaces and as new ways of learning
defined by a framework of key This framework is used to Live
outcomes from urbanisation. consider what actions need to participate in recreation and education access
The framework for wellbeing puts be taken to achieve optimal Work
people at the heart of our urban wellbeing outcomes for the Learn
environments. After all, that is people and environment
why we are creating these places. of Greater Bangkok. Play

We must consider all facets of Infrastructure MOVE SUSTAIN
the human experience in cities, Move
including how people live, work, People’s ability to The capability of an
learn and play. It is also important move through urban urban area to sustain
to think about how people can areas via active, public people on individual
create sustainable lifestyles or private modes
both from environmental and and community levels
economic perspectives.

NATURE & INFRASTRUCTURE
BIODIVERSITY
All built structures
The health of ecosystems and the resources
and how they relate to that are used to create
the built environment
and support them

8

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Methodology

Foresight process

Horizon scan Megatrends Key factors Morphological box and projections

The process commenced with a horizon scan of High impact trends were synthesised into Analysis of the seven megatrends and their Morphological box was the chosen scenario
trends and weak signals shaping the future of seven megatrends, or powerful forces for component trends helped identify key factors that technique for this study because it allows
urbanisation. This step involved literature reviews change arising from the combined influence of determine the future of Greater Bangkok. These for the exploration of complex issues by
and brainstorming, with special input from industry multiple trends. Megatrends have global scale factors describe drivers of change with significant providing a structured process to select the
experts in workshops and interviews. The STEEPV and build up over long periods of time. While uncertainty in terms of how they will be expressed most consistent and relevant scenarios.
(Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, global in scope, the implications of a given in the future or how they will impact urbanisation.
Political, Values) framework was used to ensure megatrend can be assessed at the local level. With this method, scenarios can be built from future
trends reflected a wide coverage of issues. These factors drive the focal point of the scenarios. projections identified in each key factor. Projections
Megatrends are important to watch are future states or alternative developments of
A qualitative assessment produced a because they often point to sources of a key factor. In this study, key factors consisted
short list of 30 high impact trends. disruption and transformational change. of between two and four possible projections.

Click here to see Click here to see Click here to see Click here to see
details of the details of the details of the details of the
high impact trends megatrends key factors morphological box

9

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Methodology

Foresight process

Scenario building Developing narratives Implications and actions Putting future thinking to use

Scenarios are evidence-based stories of the A number of methods were used to explore Each scenario was assessed in terms of The most important step in the foresight
future. They are not predictions, but rather a the details of each scenario. Six personas threats and opportunities for the wellbeing of methodology is taking future thinking and
narrative of how the future could turn out given were developed in order to consider how residents and visitors to Greater Bangkok. To ensuring it is used to drive better decisions.
the interplay of key factors or uncertainties. different future residents might experience stimulate follow up discussions and actions,
each scenario. How they interacted with each implications were identified for each scenario. All assets in this report are designed to help
A combination of one projection for each key other in each scenario was also explored. facilitate discussions about a possible future of
factor was used to create five unique scenarios. Actions were developed in a workshop urbanisation in Greater Bangkok. Some ways
The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) method was brainstorming exercise and were further that you could use these assets include:
used to structure a dialogue about alterative futures. refined to a specific set of actions for policy
makers, city developers and communities. • Run an ideation workshop using the trends cards
Graphics were developed to explore in detail • Run a workshop using the graphical
how elements of the wellbeing framework would
manifest in each of these future scenarios. assets and personas to further explore
the consequences of each scenario
• Use the scenarios to do wind tunnel testing to
check the robustness of policies and strategies

10

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok
SOCIAL High Impact Trends
This diagram captures the
process and evolution from TECHNOLOGICAL AGEING POPULATION Key Factors
the high impact trends to
megatrends, to key factors and ADAPTIVE DESIGN Megatrends URBAN EQUITY Scenarios
the scenarios.
The connections between these LIFELONG LEARNING WELLBEING FOR ALL EDUCATION AND SKILLS TECHNOTOPIA
elements show their influence. URBAN PLAYGROUND
IMMIGRATION WISE NATION REGIONAL TRANSPORT DECENTRALISED
ECONOMIC DATA DOMINANCE RESILIENCE
LEFT BEHIND CHILDREN PLATFORM AUTOMATION RANKING ACCELERATED
ENVIRONMENTAL RENAISSANCE IN TRANSPARENCY GENERATIONS
MASS TRANSIT HEALTH HOLIDAYS SKILLED MIGRATION TRANSFORMING
SMART MACHINES ARE LIFESTYLES
COMING WASTE TO JOBS TOURISM
SMARTER CITIES 11
VILLAGE HARMONY ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY
CYBER SECURITY RISK
BOOMING HEALTH CLIMATE RESILIENCE
TECHNOLOGIES URBAN DATA
GLOBAL DIGITAL GOVERNANCE
ECONOMY POLITICAL STABILITY
ADVANCING KNOWLEDGE COMMUNITY
ECONOMY ENGAGEMENT
CENTRALISATION AND HEALTHY LIFESTYLES
INEQUALITY
POLITICAL STRONGER LOCAL The STEEPV framework includes ‘values’ to emphasise an aspect of the
ECONOMIES social domain, which relates to important cultural principles that are
VALUES DEPENDENCE ON likely to shape the Thai response to the other change factors. Adding
TOURISM the values domain shines a spotlight on how culture and values might
AIR POLLUTION shape the way people respond to global change.

WASTE EVERYWHERE

BIODIVERSITY LOSS

CLIMATE CHANGE

RISING TIDES

PROTEST MOVEMENTS

URBAN BIG DATA

REGIONAL TENSIONS

GOVORNMENT
TRANSPARENCY
DESIRE FOR
DECENTRALISATION
FOCUS ON HEALTH
AND WELLBEING
VALUING ECOSYSTEMS

COLLECTIVISM

INCLUSIVE DESIGN

FAMILY VALUES

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Megatrends Waste Wise Wellbeing Village
to jobs nation for all harmony
Megatrends are powerful forces for change
occurring at the intersection of high Data
impact trends. Megatrends have global dominance
scale and build up over long periods of
time. Their component trends are patterns Platform Health
of change that can be verified with transparency holidays
historic data.

As such, megatrends are best viewed in
hindsight, but can offer clear signals to
decision makers about the future in the
short to medium term. While global in
scope, the implications of megatrends can
be assessed at the local level.

SEE ALSO

Full Megatrends report

12

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Personas We would like to introduce you to the following six characters who
live in Greater Bangkok in 2050. Some of them know each other and
We can only appreciate and understand some don’t, but their interactions tell you about how well the city
scenarios of the future of urbanisation meets their needs and impacts on their wellbeing. We will explore a
when we think about how people live in day in the life of each of these personas in the scenarios section.
these futures.

MOTIVATIONS & VALUES Saifah Lucy Apinya Li Jun Hathai Mongkol
Male, 7 Female, 25 Non-binary, 36 Male, 45 Female, 63 Male, 82

A school student who loves sport Likes to keep on the move, A free spirit and young at Doing his part for the Driven to keep her family and Despite his disability which
and will take any opportunity looking for new places to explore. heart, Apinya is active in their advancement of Bangkok and community together and happy. makes walking challenging, he
to get outdoors. Due to his mild Travelling to Bangkok several community, often volunteering driving a clean and efficient Mindfulness, meditation and finds enjoyment in keeping active
autism, he has had a hard time years ago, she is an ex-pat from to support those in need. They technology agenda. His skills in health are important parts of with his great-granddaughter
making friends at school but the UK working in the agriculture work when they can, taking leveraging data for improved her life as she strives to make and engaging with his local
finds it easy to open up on the technology sector. She has a part in the gig economy and efficiency have propelled his Bangkok a place that she and community. He loves music,
playground. He always enjoys strong voice for equal rights not working the same job for career. Since relocating from her family can be safe in. Her regularly practising on his piano
traveling to visit extended for the people of Bangkok. very long. They enjoy frequent mainland China, he aspires to passion for food has driven for anyone who wants to listen.
family outside the city. travel to countries and places of help the people of Bangkok her career and she doesn’t
cultural significance and history. by leveraging technology. want to retire any time soon.

13

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Scenarios

Welcome to Greater Bangkok Each scenario consists of We encourage you to use “Scenarios are not predictions. They are not meant
in 2050. opportunities and challenges these to expand your thinking to be ‘right’ or ‘wrong’, ‘good’ or ‘bad’, but to offer
for residents and visitors. These about the future. Are there interesting (and in some cases challenging, stretching or
These five divergent scenarios scenarios have implications unexpected consequences controversial) pictures of the future.
present plausible futures which for the way that people that you need to watch out
are created through a series of live, work, play, learn, move for? What opportunities do They provide a safe space – a sand pit – to explore
possible events. and sustain in Bangkok. you see in these scenarios that alternative ways the policy area might develop and the
you want to embrace? What choices that various stakeholders might make under
These scenarios can be used to do you need to include in your different market conditions.”
test strategies and aid with the planning to maximise these
decision making process. These potential opportunities? UK Government, Futures Toolkit
may help to identify blind spots
or consider future complexities.

Technotopia Urban Decentralised Accelerated Transforming
playgrounds resilience generations lifestyles

14

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Scenarios

Technotopia

Autocratic governance and high-tech
solutions prove effective in tackling climate
change and economic crisis.

Live, Play, Sustain
Move & Infrastructure
Nature & Biodiversity
Work & Learn

15

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok
Saifah
Scenarios Does school remotely from his bedroom
using a virtual reality system.
Technotopia
Key factors that Personas in
shape Technotopia Technotopia Lucy
Gives a guest talk at Saifah’s school about
Automation Ranking Morning agritech and new foods in development
at her lab.
Bangkok is a frontrunner Midday
ranking in the top five in the Apinya
region for levels of automation Afternoon Checks in to complete their minimum
across sectors. This has been daily time requirements for work. This
a result of large international Evening earns them their meal tokens for the day
technology firms entering the Quote and part of their accommodation.
Bangkok market, transforming
the city into a hub for digital Click the timeline Li Jun
and technological innovations. above to explore Arrives at the office early for a virtual
the Personas meeting with his team members around
Regional Transport the world.

Regional transport has seen Hathai
significant moves to non-road- Opens her ghost kitchen early to start
based systems. The private food prep with her robotic chefs.
sector has established fast and
efficient transport networks Mongkol
which have driven down personal Starts the day with an appointment from
vehicle ownership. Bangkok the robotic physio at his home. His digital
is home to a spaceport which twin organises a time to meet with his
provides commercial travel great granddaughter.
to national space stations.

Community Engagement

Bangkok communities are not
engaged in policy, planning or
urban development.
An autocratic approach is being
taken, led by China-based
conglomerates acting as they
believe is best for communities
and the Bangkok economy.

16

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Scenarios HOW DID THIS HAPPEN? economic stimulus spending. However, the highly efficient were deemed essential to Younger generations of Thai
In contrast, highly developed tech-centred city has brought managing the ongoing financial people saw the advantage of
Technotopia After a period of political discord, economies in the region about highly sedentary lifestyles problems facing Thai national the job opportunities and more
post-pandemic economic extended a ‘hand of friendship’ with associated health problems. and provincial governments. convenient lifestyles and were
collapse and climate shocks from a position of financial and The healthcare system is efficient willing to compromise on some
in the 2020s, global banks technological strength, offering and automated. However, many The relative success of the new of their freedoms and privacy
and tech giants stepped in to reconstruction funds and high- treatment decisions are made style of governance promoted in exchange for these services.
establish themselves as dominant tech infrastructure know-how. by AI and questions about how trust and goodwill among most
funders and technology ethical some of these decisions Thais, while some are choosing And while the repressive style of
providers for the region. Under strict governance, a strong are have become common. to return to rural villages governance can be confronting,
masterplan was established for fearing repressive tech enabled benefits include political and
Initially, protracted debates and urban development of Greater Gradually, financial and social policies of the city. economic stability and effective
competition among provincial Bangkok. This plan places hard technological assistance action on climate change.
governments prevented decisive infrastructure and automation as and intervention came The tech giants provided many
action to cope with these the focus for reconstruction and with conditionalities, such valuable services, including
crises. Direct humanitarian economic development, which as privatisation of critical efficient and affordable
assistance flowed in from results in a resilient, economically infrastructure, adoption delivery of essential services,
large Asian economies. prosperous and efficient city. of Asian based smart city such as transportation, clean
technology and establishment energy and water, sanitation
Debt laden Western countries of a more authoritarian style of and even green spaces.
offered what they could but governance. These conditions
were still reeling from post-
GFC and post-COVID-19

Persistent protests and Successive years of Global banks offer Great Deal projects delivered,
social unrest destabilise flooding batter ‘rescue package’ based including Spaceport, Inter-city
the country Greater Bangkok on ‘conditionalities’ Hyperloop and aerial transport system

2020 - 2025 2025 - 2030 2035 2040s

2020 2030 2040 2050

2020 2027 2031 2037 2050

COVID-19 crisis causes sharp Global banks offer Thai government The rescue package for Greater Bangkok comes Greater Bangkok population reaches
drop in tourism and Thai assistance. Human defaults on debt from into force providing funding and masterplanning 25M and becomes world renowned
economy contracts 6.5% and technical reconstruction for the wider region. Dubbed the ‘Great Deal’, hub for Asian tech giants
resources arrive from many East Asians emigrate to Thailand to support
advanced East Asian delivery of projects 17
economies to rebuild
critical infrastructure
and key urban zones

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Scenarios

Urban
Playgrounds

Tactical urbanism promoting health
and physical activity has given rise
to an unplanned patchwork of green
neighbourhoods and play equipment
for all ages.

Live, Play, Sustain
Move & Infrastructure
Nature & Biodiversity
Work & Learn

18

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok
Key factors that shape Personas in Saifah
Scenarios Urban Playgrounds Urban Attends a jungle kindergarten designed
Playgrounds to help connect children to the
Urban Population Health environment and encourage active
Playgrounds Morning healthy lifestyles.
The Bangkok population health
is very good for all ages and Midday Lucy
across demographics. Driven Does a run to her work in the morning.
by the shift to active urban Afternoon Works with her team on masterplanning
design and climate sensitive a new community farm that can self-
policies, people live longer while Evening manage its production quantities.
healthcare costs have decreased. Quote
Apinya
Environmental Policy Click the timeline Substitutes for a school class on balanced
above to explore nutrition. In advance of taking the class,
A strong policy shift to new the Personas Apinya is provided with summarised
methods of urban development student profiles for those in the class.
and urban greening have
resulted in significantly Li Jun
improved environmental Takes part in a focus group testing
conditions throughout the city. session. Those who are physically
disabled are testing the latest public
Skilled Migration autonomous vehicle models. The groups
help co-design some features.
Bangkok has become a hub
for sustainable technology Hathai
development. This has been Begins the day with some quiet
driven by the significant increase meditation at the park. Special pods allow
in skilled worker migration. residents to meditate in complete silence
Professionals have come from in the heart of the city.
around the world to settle
in one of the most liveable Mongkol
cities with their families. Holds some early morning appointments
with community members for a whole of
life health check-up.

19

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Scenarios HOW DID THIS HAPPEN? ageing population in Greater the region lacked an overall The Thai government started Creative urbanists, engineers,
Bangkok. Healthcare costs masterplan to address the crisis. to observe the marked planners and development
Urban Provincial governments in Greater escalated to unsustainable levels, Nevertheless, innovative tactical improvements in health professionals from around are
Playgrounds Bangkok step up efforts to resulting in a significant social urbanism projects created and happiness of people inspired by the challenges of
reduce air pollution and manage divide and rapidly rising death green ‘playscapes’ – streets and who lived near these newly Thailand’s rapidly ageing society,
extreme heat in urban areas rate for those over the age of 80. public spaces that promoted developed urban developments air pollution and climate change.
after decades of growing human incidental exercise for all ages. and stepped in to fund
health problems, especially Loss of investment, an exodus The mentality of “never leaving and enable public-private
among elderly populations. of elderly people and public the playground” became a trend partnerships with developers
demand for action prompted in these experimental pockets to mainstream playscapes
Post-COVID-19 economic some provincial governments of the city, which became focal with new or redeveloped
downturn caused the private to experiment with urban points for a total wellbeing precincts. The political level
sector to retreat into old polluting design concepts to promote subculture. This trend went came to see this movement as
ways, which pushed smog levels physical activity, reduce air on to grow organically in the essential to Thailand’s future
to new highs across the region. pollution and cool the city. absence of a coordinated plan. prosperity and happiness.
This coincided with a sharp Unfortunately, ongoing political
rise in extreme heatwave days instability at the national and
attributed to climate change. provincial level meant that
These factors combined into
a perfect storm for the rapidly

Persistent protests and Affluent elderly populations migrate Experimentation (tactical Greater Bangkok reaches population
social unrest destabilise from urban centres around Bangkok to urbanism) around active living of 25M and is voted one of the most
the country set up eco-villages in more remote parts leads to novel playground liveable megacities for all ages
of the country. Those left behind protest designs in innovative new
2020 - 2025 about the stifling heat and pollution in building and precinct scale 2040
the city, and the lack of government property developments
healthcare assistance
2030s
2025 - 2030

2020 2030 2040 2050

2020 2025 2030 2050

Thailand’s tourism and wider Thai government Thai government Greater Bangkok hosts world masters
economy slumps retracts the universal establishes ‘Active City games; the event demonstrates
healthcare plan to Partnership’ to support Parkour in a few of the city’s iconic
address fiscal stress property developers playscapes
create safe playscapes in
streets and lots located 20
around new buildings and
precincts

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Scenarios

Decentralised
Resilience

Many Bangkok people now happily live in
planned sustainable communities on higher
ground, but old flooded districts are still
home to those who could not afford the
move.

Live, Play, Sustain
Move & Infrastructure
Nature & Biodiversity
Work & Learn

21

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok
Key factors that shape Personas in Saifah
Scenarios Decentralised Resilience Decentralised Catches the school bullet which takes
Resilience Saifah 200km from home to school in
Decentralised Climate Resilience under 10 minutes.
Resilience Morning
Bangkok has been pushed to Lucy
rebuild itself after facing severe Midday Catches a drone to her food lab based
impacts from climate change. in one of the super sky-scrapers in the
Newly developed districts of Afternoon old CBD.
Bangkok have been co-created
with communities to be resilient Evening Apinya
to future climate shocks. Old Quote Gets to work early. They activate and
districts are faring less well. coordinate the robots that are purpose-
Click the timeline built for clearing debris and other waste
Regional Transport above to explore from waterways.
the Personas
Much of the transport Li Jun
infrastructure of Bangkok was Arrives at his workplace in the outer districts
inundated by severe flooding. of Bangkok. His business operates in one of
Bangkok has reinvented its the gated business parklands.
transport systems embracing
the water and developing Hathai
high speed transport Checks into one of the floating logistics
modes (such as hyperloop) centres in the old city. She received her
connecting its districts. nutrient materials from the automated
warehouse robots.
Urban Equity
Mongkol
Bangkok is facing severe Catches a shared shuttle to the
socioeconomic divides between community farm to gather ingredients to
those who can afford to live in cook breakfast.
the newly developed resilient
districts and those who have to 22
make do in flooded regions and
rural areas that are not connected
to public transport networks.

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Scenarios HOW DID THIS HAPPEN? Unfortunately, with government Following the example of these The mentality of working from
funding stretched thin, not community-led settlements, anywhere is prevalent across
Decentralised Intense periods of drought and all can be housed in these many developers engaged the region enabled by low orbit
Resilience floods have broken large parts of redeveloped ‘islands of resilience’. directly with customers and satellite broadband that is made
Thailand’s food system. Flooding Many of the poor are left to communities to design new free for all. The sharing economy
and rising sea levels have develop more informal housing neighbourhoods and buildings. is booming with shared energy
progressively inundated many of solutions by repurposing disused from micro-grids, food co-ops,
Bangkok’s central buildings and buildings or living in flood Transportation infrastructure co-housing, ghost kitchens
districts. The region’s economy resilient housing pods. These consortiums have also included and product libraries. These
has suffered and many have communities have also worked community representatives to more sustainable lifestyles
been left homeless. The poor and together to establish vertical inform design of innovative aerial are less costly and as people
homeless have sought refuge in gardens and farms in high-rise based systems to link the new value time over money in these
abandoned buildings. National buildings of flooded districts, districts, informal settlements developments many of them
and provincial government and built floating markets. and promote labour market have reduced working hours so
budgets are stretched thin mobility, enabling movement that they can spend more time
but good adaptive planning to anywhere in Greater with family and enjoying life.
practices have fast tracked re- Bangkok within 30 minutes.
developments on higher ground
around the outskirts of the city.

Frequent and severe flood New Bangkok – the first flood Greater Bangkok is voted most climate
events accelerate sinking resilient district – is completed resilient megacity in Asia
of downtown Bangkok
2035 2050
2020s
2030 2040 2050
2020
23
2030 2040

Thai government plans retreat of Ten new urban districts are completed
critical government services to a new on higher ground. More are planned as
administrative district on the outskirts the economy recovers
of Bangkok. Government plans are
developed for ten new mixed-use
industry clusters

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Scenarios UNI OF BANGKOK

Accelerated
Generations

The elderly have re-engaged in society,
leveraging years of expertise to create a
globally famous startup region where urban
and economic development align with
traditional Thai values.

Live, Play, Sustain
Move & Infrastructure
Nature & Biodiversity
Work & Learn

24

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok
Key factors that shape Personas in Saifah
Scenarios Accelerated Generations Accelerated Has a morning learning activity with
Generations mixed age groups. People from his
Accelerated Education & Skills community all come together to share
Generations Morning and learn each week.
Access to education has
been greatly improved in Midday Lucy
Bangkok with the integration Takes the morning off to go to her yoga
of the elderly into education Afternoon and meditation class. Working flexibly
systems. Bangkok leads Asia lets her engage with her friends in older
in educational attainment, Evening generations.
which is driving its rapidly Quote
growing technology sector. Apinya
Click the timeline Catches an autonomous shuttle from
Community Engagement above to explore home. Apinya searches for a book
the Personas on emerging technology to read on
The urbanisation of Bangkok is the journey.
led primarily by communities.
The trend of growing co-creation Li Jun
that is dominating the private Goes to work as a transport innovation
sector is also influencing higher advisor where he is designing a new
level planning and development space orbit mode of transport for
for the built environment. interstate and international travel.

Automation Ranking Hathai
Has a morning conference where she is
Bangkok is globally renowned speaking on how to successfully start and
as a frontrunner for digital run food businesses.
innovations and automation
technology. Driven by a strong
startup culture, Bangkok is
home to some of the world’s
leading robotics laboratories

Mongkol
Gets some morning exercise. His local
community across age groups will often
get together to exercise.

25

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Scenarios HOW DID THIS HAPPEN? Governments change too With increasing expenditure With the environment changing
frequently, and many planners directed to roads, little could be and Greater Bangkok ill prepared
Accelerated Rapid ageing and a transport are pressured to defer visionary done to address environmental to adapt, tourist and migrant
Generations system dominated by and integrated planning ideas problems. Consequently, numbers have dwindled
autonomous vehicles create a until a future where politics is pollution has choked the city, causing economic hardship.
highly sedentary society and more stable. Instead spatial while hotter and more intense Thai government ends universal
unaffordable healthcare system, and infrastructure planning wet seasons has caused healthcare, which forces many
which requires more older happens in a haphazard way problems for infrastructure. older Thais to either come out of
Thais to delay retirement. as the government adopts retirement or delay retirement to
Western style car dominated cover growing healthcare costs.
Greater Bangkok has expanded low density development.
rapidly but governments have
struggled to plan effectively.

Healthcare system collapses under Greater Bangkok reinvents itself into burgeoning Greater Bangkok has one of the most
the pressure of rising costs and rapid new Silicon Valley of tech startups based on Thai thriving startup ecosystems globally
ageing of an increasingly unhealthy values of family and harmony with nature. New with multiple ‘unicorn’ companies
society. Government discontinues multigenerational mixed-use developments become
universal healthcare system home to the Thai-style startup incubators 2050

2025 2035 2050

2020 2030 2040 26

2030 2040

Western economic Multigenerational mixed-use
model collapses development becomes the standard
model among government planners

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Scenarios

Transforming
Lifestyles

The top destination for global
travellers seeking long-stay
health retreats, mind-body-
spirit balance, eco-tourism
or retraining for the jobs of
the future.

Live, Play, Sustain

Move & Infrastructure

Nature & Biodiversity

Work & Learn

27

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok
Key factors that shape Personas in Saifah
Scenarios Transforming Lifestyles Transforming Attends his multinational school where
Lifestyles he is learning skills such as creativity
Transforming Tourism and collaboration with those that think
Lifestyles Morning differently.
The tourism market has
significantly evolved in Bangkok. Midday Lucy
The number of visitors is low, Goes for a run and watches the sunrise
but those who do visit stay for Afternoon before attending her Thai cultural
extended periods and spend education course. She loves being so
significantly, driving economic Evening connected to the Thai people.
growth. Education has become Quote
one of the largest exports, with Apinya
professionals travelling from Click the timeline Meets a tour group at their eco-village
around the world to upskill. above to explore resort to guide them through nature
the Personas reserves.
Environmental Policy
Li Jun
There are strong environmental Gets to work early in the morning to work
policies, which are supported with his team of data scientists. They
by a booming eco-tourism prepare a report for their retail clients on the
sector. Habitats have been food traffic and spending patterns of citizens
rehabilitated and urban areas across the city.
made wild to accommodate
biodiverse flora and fauna. Hathai
Books a premium meditation space in the
Skilled Migration morning. She practises mindfulness as
the sun rises.
There has been a boom in highly
skilled migrants moving into Mongkol
Bangkok as professionals seek Gets up early to practise his music in the village
desirable locations to work square. His neighbours and others often gather
remotely. Professionals come to hear him play. His village embraces the
to Bangkok to upskill in their sharing economy, with many communal spaces
human-centred capabilities. maintained by the residents.

28

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Scenarios HOW DID THIS HAPPEN? economy accelerate during the Urban developments reflect The traditional skills of the Thai
pandemic, but many knowledge this focus on human and people include mindfulness,
Transforming Successive waves of pandemics and tech professionals need to environmental wellbeing. Green adaptability, empathy and ethics.
Lifestyles shift tourism in Greater learn new skills to be job ready canopies, waterscapes and These skills are in high demand
Bangkok towards long-stay for these new opportunities. meandering paths permeate in the high-tech automated
health retreats, mind-body- The Greater Bangkok region has the city, encouraging people future. Knowledge professionals
spirit balance and upskilling become a destination for long to slow down and reflect on are seeking to counterbalance
for new job requirements. term medical and health retreats, what’s important to them. the world dominated by artificial
digital detoxes and professionals intelligence. Seeking human
Ongoing global issues with looking to work remotely The upgraded economy has interaction and connection
pandemics and travel bubbles from desirable locations. Thai developed to provide innovative with biological life is a novelty,
have driven the evolution of governments doubled their professional and personal and many suffer physical and
the Bangkok tourism market efforts to clean up Greater development opportunities. psychological problems brought
to focus on longer-term stays Bangkok and local industries Visitors come to the region on by digitally immersive living.
and lifestyle transformations. in a bid to support the tourism to learn about Southeast
Holiday packages are designed industry’s pivot towards health Asian cultures, religions
to accommodate periods of and nature-based experiences. and wisdom traditions.
lockdown and quarantining.
Technology and the digital

International tourism Inaugural wellbeing conference attracts Greater Bangkok has become the
recommences under strict over 30,000 delegates from over 100 number one destination for lifestyle
public health protocols. countries to discuss global health transformation travel. Training packages
Most travellers book challenges post-pandemic and the include medical procedures, cultural and
longer stays away from mental health crisis spiritual getaways, re-skilling for ‘career
the crowded streets of changers’ and health and wellbeing
Bangkok 2030
2040
2021
2040
2020 2030 2050

2020 2022 2031 2050

COVID-19 impacts Visionary new government Thai Government announces “Skills of the Greater Bangkok commission unveils
traditional low- comes to power and Future” policy in response to conference new Urban Wellbeing Index for
cost tourism and establishes a Greater Bangkok recommendations. A raft of strategies are megacities
causes widespread plan to develop niche tourism implemented to upgrade Greater Bangkok
unemployment markets and build on Thai into a green and regenerative megacity, 29
cultural strengths and natural build new education facilities and attract
environments health and wellbeing skills from overseas

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Morphological Box

Assessment of key uncertainties resulted in a morphological
model of 12 factors, each with 2-4 projections

URBAN EQUITY EDUCATION & SKILLS REGIONAL TRANSPORT AUTOMATION RANKING SKILLED MIGRATION TOURISM
Extent of access and quality of Dominant education model Extent of road-dependence Thailand’s ranking on AI and Extent to which Thailand can Quality of Thailand’s tourism
urban services (housing, clean and cost, which determines and congestion of transport automation systems (reflects attract and retain high skilled market based on tourist
energy and water, sanitation, access to future-relevant skills system across the Greater adoption/application in migrants to develop s-curve numbers and spend
healthcare, transportation etc.) appropriate to 2050 industries Bangkok region industry and government) industries
and jobs

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY CLIMATE RESILIENCE URBAN DATA GOVERNANCE POLITICAL STABILITY COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT HEALTHY LIFESTYLES
Strength of government Extent to which communities Public trust in institutions that Stability of governments and Extent to which local Overall state of health
policy and private sector and infrastructure are prepared collect and use data generated coordinated masterplanning communities are involved in for  most Thais
commitment to environmental and can rebound from extreme by city assets and services, across the Greater Bangkok planning and development
objectives flood events and whether citizens can region decisions
control how their data is used

Click to explore Key factor Technotopia Urban Decentralised Accelerated Transforming
the projections definitions playgrounds resilience generations lifestyles
and factors
30

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

Actions

This project has explored the trends that
are shaping the future of urbanisation in
Greater Bangkok

We live in an era of Urban policy, planning and threats and opportunities that innovations and transformations
volatile global change. development need updating to can be identified and managed like shifting to renewable
enable adaptive and regenerative to meet important goals. energy and adapting to sea-
Economies around the world urban systems and spaces. level rise. This process will
are reeling from COVID-19. New The scenarios presented in This report places human and involve careful orchestration
technologies are entering the this report offer a starting environmental wellbeing as of foresight and innovation
market at an unprecedented rate. point to consider how Greater a central organising goal for processes across the region.
Climate change and biodiversity Bangkok could evolve over the urbanisation in the region.
continue to trend in the wrong next 30 years. Each scenario This section outlines key
direction. Human health statistics portrays both positive and Shaping Greater Bangkok into a implications and actions to
are similarly worrisome. With negative outcomes from critical wellbeing-oriented 21st century take the future of urbanisation
most people living in cities trends and uncertainties. city requires open and creative conversation further. The
today and more expected minds to collaborate and plan discussion is based on the five
in the coming decades, the The aim is to spark for how the city will mitigate scenarios and outlines key issues
future of human and planetary the imagination. future threats and capitalise and initiatives policy makers
wellbeing will depend on new on exciting opportunities. and planners, developers and
trajectories for urbanisation. Scenarios are not predictions. communities could consider to
The future is likely to be a Crisis response to acute events help achieve wellbeing for all in
mixture of all five scenarios; and like pandemics and natural Greater Bangkok and beyond.
there may be other scenarios disasters will be critical, as
that we have not considered. will guiding longer term
Scenarios are best used to
explore a range of important
risks – uncertainties with both

31

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

IMPLICATION 1 ACTIONS Implement effective policy for promoting community
participation.
PROMOTING COMMUNITY Policy Makers Sourcing and ownership of smart city technology will
CO-CREATION IN THE ‘SMART SOCIETY’ need to be evaluated by good governance principles
City and be implemented with consideration of the values
Community co-creation and of digital technologies (smart Currently, some form of Developers of Thai people.
participation are emerging devices, the Internet of Things, behaviour monitoring system Develop principles for good governance of direct
principles in urban planning, but artificial intelligence, GPS is being deployed or piloted in Community foreign investment or bank finance in cities based on
these principles assume freedom tracking etc.) can improve countries and cities, both in the Thai values and aspirations.
of speech and social diversity. infrastructure, service East and West. The development
provision and offer indicators of China’s social credit system Experiment with community led projects. Examples of
Unfortunately, there are signs of overall city performance and use of CCTVs to monitor this can be seen in some co-housing developments in
globally that these freedoms are (economic activity, safety, COVID-19 public health mandates Western countries.
being curtailed. According to community sentiment etc.). has been well-documented. Assess and mitigate governance risks associated with
US-based pro-democracy group Other countries have also foreign investment and smart city technology.
Freedom House, governments It is hoped that this big data can introduced monitoring. France, Prioritise social inclusion and accessibility with the
around the world are increasingly provide more detailed, nuanced, for example, used drone cameras development of new infrastructure.
manipulating content, and real-time understanding to monitor adherence to
disrupting internet service and of urban spaces, infrastructure coronavirus restrictions until it Understand your data privacy rights and be aware of
orchestrating physical attacks and citizens. However, concerns was banned in January 2021 by the implications of sharing personal information.
on human rights defenders have been raised that ever- the country’s privacy watchdog.7 Consider a balanced use of physical and virtual
and independent media.5 increasing amounts of citizen environments in your lifestyle.
data (including video) pose Upskill and improve e-literacy by having an active
Proponents of smart cities risks to privacy, civil liberties voice in the way technology impacts the city.
and the digital economy and make the city ‘hackable’
promise that the constellation and vulnerable to bad actors.6

32

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

IMPLICATION 2 ACTIONS Develop policy and strategies to support and evaluate
bottom up innovation and scale up proven solutions.
SUPPORTING HEALTHY CITIES Policy Makers Develop strategic policy goals for active and healthy
AND PEOPLE lifestyles as well as explore what planning interventions
City might help meet those goals. Goals can address urban
Cities are large emitters of A review of child and adolescent A study of Southeast Asian Developers design standards, per capita green space for active travel
photochemical smog and urban mental health revealed improved cities revealed shrinking and recreation, and green canopy for reducing urban
development is a driver of attention and memory, with some green space and increasing Community heat.
habitat and biodiversity loss. evidence suggesting that the built up areas over 25 years Commission studies and develop policy papers assessing
link may be explained by lower (1989-2014); the researchers the role of the built environment in supporting Thai health
Smog has serious implications air pollution, higher physical projected this to continue as and wellbeing.
for human health and can force activity and social interaction.10 further development occurs Establish a ‘wellbeing cities’ policy network including
people to remain indoors on on higher ground at the green government, not-for-profit and private developer
severe smog days. Green space A large-scale Chinese study urban fringe.11 Encouragingly, organisations.
in the form of parkland and showed that excessive the BMA is looking at this issue
waterways is important for screen time in young children with the governor recently Develop and implement a wellbeing rating tool for
physical and mental health. (3-4 years) poses a risk to stating a goal to increase per property developments in conjunction with industry. The
psychosocial wellbeing, which capita green space from 6 tool may involve building a database of strategies that
Research shows that green was largely explained by reduced sqm to 9 and to make the city address key health challenges for urban populations.
space improves mood, reduces parent-child interaction. more walkable following the 15 Research and development on urban and building design
urban heat and cardiovascular minute city model of Paris.12 to enhance wellbeing. Use latest wellbeing research to
mortality.8 Access to green Rapid urbanisation places drive product development.
space has also been linked to development pressure on Allow for urban spaces to be experimented with.
improved mental wellbeing, precious green space. Test new strategies and models for how spaces
general health and cognitive are built, used and change over time.
development in children.9
Consider crowdsourcing funding for urban development
that will increase the liveability and value of your home.
Participate in stakeholder engagement exercises to
influence the urban development of your community.
Where possible, promote the health, active living and
maintenance of green space in your property and wider
community.

33

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

IMPLICATION 3 ACTIONS Formulate an adaptation policy framework that
covers retreat, protecting assets and distributed
PLANNING FOR A DIFFERENT Policy Makers settlement patterns.
CLIMATE AND HELPING TO MITIGATE Commission cost-benefit studies of different
City adaptation strategies.
Climate change is causing Such adaptation measures Collaboration on a community Developers Use adaptation studies to inform urban policy
sea level rise (SLR) and are likely to exacerbate socio- scale can allow for the such as the location of new developments and
shifts in the intensity and economic divides. The poor establishment of microgrids, Community building standards.
frequency of extreme storms. are less able to move to outer recycling, reuse and waste Explore wealth redistribution policies to address
suburban areas, where they centres, food gardens and climate related inequity (e.g., lower taxes in climate
Like many cities, Greater would need to pay public sharing economy schemes. resilient developments).
Bangkok is situated in a low- or private transport costs This sustainable community
lying river delta system, to commute to work. living can reduce climate Use latest modelling and data on sea level rise and
vulnerable to flooding, storm impact and improve lifestyles. flooding to inform land acquisition and project
surge and SLR. The latest While adapting to climate development strategies.
research from Princeton change, Greater Bangkok can Explore and develop resilient community models that
University’s Climate Central also be at the cutting edge can adapt to the climate crisis.
shows that SLR vulnerability of zero and negative carbon Consider critical infrastructure risks associated with
in Bangkok could see much of initiatives in construction, sea level rise and flooding. Develop community
the city inundated by 2050.13 transport, services and lifestyles. facilities to manage these risks such as food and water
Clean energy technologies, like shortages, power outage, damaged communications.
Hard adaptation decisions need solar photovoltaics and wind
to be made, including major turbines, can power the city when Consider projects that you could do on a community
investments in engineered combined with adequate energy level to improve your lifestyle.
solutions (sea walls) and storage solutions. Growing Establish resilience plans to protect you, your home
development of greenfield areas affluence and consumption in and community in cases of disaster. This may include
in less flood-prone areas, such as the city means that more needs community solar to maintain power in the case of a
the Eastern Economic Zone, well to be done to develop sharing network failure.
outside the Bangkok Metro Area. and circular economies. Work towards maintaining community cohesion and
reducing socioeconomic divide in your community.

34

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

IMPLICATION 4 ACTIONS Commission research on existing models of inter-
generational mixed-use communities. Examine
HARNESSING WISDOM OF AN Policy Makers possible changes to planning schemes to enable inter-
AGEING POPULATION generational communities.
City Develop a framework for accommodating long-
While the ageing population in multi-generational homes Furthermore, as the world Developers term demographic changes in Thai cities. Consider
poses clear challenges to and villages. Through the 2nd economy becomes increasingly the possibility for Bangkok to carve a niche for age
healthcare costs, having National Aging Plan on the dominated by tech companies, Community friendly precincts.
more older people could Elderly (2002-2021), the Thai concerns have been raised Share city data and identify issues that you would
bring more perspective government has policies and about a culture of age bias in encourage the startup ecosystem to solve.
and better judgement to programmes to support more the sector.16 17 Harvard Business
social and economic life. active involvement of seniors.14 Review found evidence of age Experiment with models of inter-generational mixed
For example, tax incentives bias among Silicon Valley venture use communities. Consider dwelling type and mix,
In the face of unprecedented are available for organisations capitalists towards younger commercial space for type of industry/enterprise.
global challenges, it makes sense hiring older workers. However, founders, typically under 40.18 Seek community involvement in designs.
to consider how private and such policies face significant Recent age discrimination Develop new business models for inter-generational
public organisations can integrate headwinds from deep-set class actions have been settled communities such as commercial space that could
older workers, build more age attitudes toward ‘retirement’ from by major tech companies like subsidize affordable housing for retirees.
diversity and create roles that paid work and growing trends Google.19 A 2018 survey of Run design competitions for future mixed use and
value ‘eldership’ and ‘wisdom’. in Thailand toward segregated over 500 founders revealed startup hubs. Encourage designers to work with
‘senior living communities’.15 that 89% agreed that older communities and promote wider collaboration.
A strength of Thai culture is the people face age discrimination
high regard for older generations in the tech industry.20 Connect people from different generations through
and the close connection their lifestyle and work.
of extended families, which Provide multiple opportunities for people of all ages
have historically cohabitated to connect, share skills and resources.
Learn about people’s interests and skills to help them
stay engaged in the community whilst ageing.

35

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

IMPLICATION 5 ACTIONS Develop an urban wellbeing index and invest in
government capacity in the wellbeing domain.
NURTURING TOURISM AND Policy Makers Develop strategies to transform greater Bangkok
THAI HERITAGE into a wellbeing hub. Achieve this by bringing visitors
City closer to nature, lowering pollution levels, developing
Globalisation has brought more With the pandemic crisis perhaps shirking sameness for Developers transport pod system. Encourage long stays through
than economic integration – it persisting for the foreseeable the exceptional. They may also visa incentives.
has also created a ‘sameness’ to future, the International Air have to assess risks of further Community Consider the jobs of the future and develop training
urban design and architecture. Transport Association has stated health restrictions, if outbreaks programmes that will help people be job ready.
Anthropologist Marc Augé that demand for air travel may occur. Careful thought will be
called this phenomenon not recover for several years needed about how to enhance Experiment with different urban and building designs
‘non-place’ or places that and not reach pre-COVID levels the experience of travellers to support more elderly populations in the city.
look similar no matter where before 2024.22 With the list of in such circumstances. For Develop urban designs that promote urban
you are in the world.21 airline bankruptcies ballooning to example, providing office meandering, rest and relaxation.
over 80 companies globally,23 24 facilities, access to open green Create spaces that promote innovation and allow for
Where local history and culture international travel and tourism spaces and expedited testing. collaboration between people of all ages.
have been extracted from the is likely to become a more
built form, global travellers are expensive and novel experience. Embrace changes brought about through
left with perpetual déjà vu as Such a prospect would require globalisation, while maintaining the uniqueness of
they trek through airports, hotel Thailand to accelerate plans to Thai culture.
lobbies, shopping malls and become a premium destination. Make your community a space where global citizens
CBDs. Could this be a plausible Travellers are likely to think and travellers can come, belong and thrive.
future for Greater Bangkok? hard about where to spend Consider the strengths of Thai people and culture and
their precious time and money, how they can be shared with the global community to
train them with future skills.

36

Future of Urbanisation Scenarios Introduction Methodology Megatrends Personas Scenarios Morphological Box Actions
Greater Bangkok

References

1 ASEAN (2018). ASEAN Sustainable activists, France is banned from using 13 Climate Central, 2019, Flooded Future: 19 Rasheed. M. 2019, Tech Companies
Urbanisation Strategy, [online] available drones to enforce coronavirus rules, [online] Global vulnerability to sea level rise worse Settle Age Bias Suits, [online] available
at: https://bit.ly/3e3JVHn available at: http://wapo.st/2NajRPz than previously understood, [online] at: https://bit.ly/2ZviQo5
available at: https://bit.ly/3ajnGuA
2 UN, 2018, Revision of the World 8 Bosch. M. 2017, Urban natural environments 20 First Round Capital, 2018, State of Startups
Urbanization Prospects, [online] as nature-based solutions for improved public 14 Saikrajang. C. et.al. 2019, Silver Economy: 2018, [online] available at: http://bit.ly/3bakfFV
available at: http://bit.ly/3s3ED2h health, [online] available at: https://bit.ly/3jQnq9E Opportunities with Thailand’s Growing
Senior Population, [online] available 21 Augé. M. 1992, Non-Places: An Introduction
3 C40 Cities, 2018, Consumption-based 9 McCormick. R. 2017, Does Access to Green at: https://bit.ly/3dbA2qr to Anthropology of Supermodernity, p. 122
GHG Emissions of C40 Cities, [online] Space Impact the Mental Well-being of
available at: https://bit.ly/2ZtL6r3 Children: A Systematic Review, [online] 15 Pathnadabutr. A. 2018, A catalyst for development 22 IATA, 2020, Recovery Delayed as International
available at: http://bit.ly/3akLHS3 of senior living communities in Thailand, Travel Remains Locked Down, [online]
4 Anuroj. B. 2020, Thailand 4.0 – a [online] available at: http://bit.ly/2NvPt1O available at: http://bit.ly/3jQBFex
new value-based economy, [online] 10 Vanaken. G. et.al. 2018, Impact of Green Space
available at: https://bit.ly/2NfdcDS Exposure on Children’s and Adolescents’ Mental 16 Bannon. M. 2019, The Biggest Bias In 23 All Plane, 2019, Airline bankruptcies
Health, [online] available at: http://bit.ly/2N9uxOz Tech That No One Talks About, [online] 2019 list (finally!) closed, [online]
5 Kelly. S. et.al. 2017, Manpulatign Social available at: http://bit.ly/3b4yhbX available at: http://bit.ly/3tX82Nj
Media to Undermine Democracy, [online] 11 Nor. A. et.al. 2017, Impact of rapid urban
available at: http://bit.ly/3b4jMVC expansion on green space structure, 17 Lyons. D. 2016, When It Comes to Age Bias, 24 All Plane, 2020, The 2020 airline
[online] available at: http://bit.ly/3rRuIg4 Tech Companies Don’t Even Bother to Lie, bankruptcy list now closed, [online]
6 Kitchin. R. 2013, The real-time city? [online] available at: http://bit.ly/3rVn5p6 available at: http://bit.ly/3jQBWhz
Big data and smart urbanism, [online] 12 Chandran. Rina. 2020, On the right track: How
available at: https://bit.ly/2N9qFgv Bangkok turned an old unused train line into a 18 Frick. W. 2014, How Old Are Silicon Valley’s
park, [online] available at: http://bit.ly/2NpQDMD Top Founders? Here’s the Data, [online]
7 Noack. R. 2021, In victory for privacy available at: http://bit.ly/37fInWk

37