Kalibrate Market Planning Document v1 6-JULY-16

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Kalibrate Market Planning

Prepared for BP, July 2016

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Statement of Confidentiality
Kalibrate has prepared this document for the sole use of the recipient. The contents of this document are
confidential and should not be communicated to any other party without prior written approval of Kalibrate.
Kalibrate warrants that to the best of their knowledge those who prepared this document have taken all
reasonable care in preparing it, have made all reasonable inquiries to establish the veracity of the statements
contained in it and believe its contents to be true. Kalibrate cannot, however, warrant the truth of matters
outside of their control and accordingly does not warrant the truth of all statements set out in this document to
the extent that such statements derive from facts and matters supplied by other persons to Kalibrate.
No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or for any purpose without the
express permission of Kalibrate. The information contained herein may be changed without prior notice.
These materials are subject to change without notice. These materials are provided by Kalibrate and its affiliated
companies for informational purposes only, without representation or warranty of any kind, and Kalibrate shall
not be liable for errors or omissions with respect to the materials. The only warranties for Kalibrate products and
services are those that are set forth in the express warranty statements accompanying such products and
services, if any. Nothing herein should be construed as constituting an additional warranty.

About Kalibrate
Kalibrate strategy and technology solutions empower fuel retailers around the globe to achieve greater VOI and
success on their own terms. Clients gain fuller visibility, truer insight and more effective control over what
matters most. Beyond data, Kalibrate delivers actionable intelligence. Beyond expertise, Kalibrate delivers sound
judgment. Your Adaptive Edge™.
© Kalibrate Technologies Plc, 2016. All Rights Reserved.

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Executive Summary

Kalibrate has developed a strong strategic partnership with BP entities around the world, based on the
combined value of technology, knowledge and experience in the disciplines of fuels pricing and
network planning.

More recently, Kalibrate has extended that partnership into the Commercial Development Team, our
first engagement being market study and solution delivery for Mexico City, as well as other yet to be
studied markets in Mexico which will become of interest to BP over time.

Following an introductory discussion, Kalibrate understands that entry into India, by way of a Joint
Venture, is being targeted by BP. Kalibrate is extremely well placed to support BP by providing
detailed analysis determining market attractiveness, network performance and potential, market
entry and network plans.

Kalibrate has been present in India for many years, and therefore has the knowledge, experience, data
and proven solutions to achieve maximum insight for BP from prior to the point of market entry and
into the future, informing investment decision making and optimising total site and network
performance.

Kalibrate Location Cloud is an online network planning solution providing:

 Market intelligence: all retail fuel brands and sites
 Site, traffic & Demographic Data
 Identification of outlet strengths and weaknesses
 Detection of capital and operational opportunities
 Volume forecasts for Petrol, Diesel and Shop
 Identifies Cannibalization Effect

Our survey team collect over 100 data elements while physically visiting each and every site in a given
market, these include demand, traffic, facilities, brand, price, merchandising and operations. In
addition to this Kalibrate works with each client to build a brand-specific model that incorporates
actual own site volumes and competitor volume intelligence to ensure accurate and reliable model
outputs.

Kalibrate Strategy Group addresses the needs of diverse markets across the globe assisting our
clients through their most critical business deliberations. We have expertise and experience at both
executive and operational levels in the management of retail fuels and convenience operations, retail
network optimisation and financial evaluation of options pertaining to retail strategy development
and implementation.

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Retail network insights, analysis and planning

How can you maximize ROI on every capital spend? Should you buy or build? Which location is best?
The foundation of fuel and convenience retail success is expert retail network planning.
Kalibrate’s market data, prescriptive analytics and 40+ years of industry expertise are ready to work
for you. Whether you’re assessing potential locations for new sites or taking the pulse on existing
outlets, Kalibrate’s retail network planning solutions through the Location Cloud give you powerful
support to make intelligent investment decisions. Kalibrate takes the guesswork out of strategic
decisions you’ll live with for years to come.

 Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of your outlets, potential and competitors’ outlets
 Pinpoint the absolute best locations based on your brand position and strategic goals
 Identify opportunities for mergers or acquisitions within your market and expedite due

diligence
 Evaluate the potential impact of consolidating, relocating or remodelling
 Quickly and affordably test strategic scenarios before implementing them
 Maximize ROI on every capital spend

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Every market is different.
Every client’s opportunities are unique.

As fuel and convenience retailing around the globe evolves and becomes more competitive, Kalibrate
Strategy Group delivers the perspectives and solutions that cut through complexity and meet
challenges head on. The goal? Total Site Profitability and success on your own terms.

Kalibrate Strategic Advisory Services addresses the needs of diverse markets across the globe
assisting our clients through their most critical business deliberations. We have expertise and
experience at both executive and operational levels in the management of retail fuels and
convenience operations, and retail portfolio strategy development and implementation.

Our highly skilled and experienced team brings expertise from the following disciplines:

• Market evaluation and ranking
• Competitor benchmarking
• Retail strategic market planning
• Retail network optimisation
• Fuel price optimisation
• Convenience store and food offer expertise
• Total site profitability
• Financial modelling
• Supply chain logistics
• Downstream business operations

With our strategic foresight and industry expertise, we are able to take a holistic view on fuel and
convenience retailing excellence by focusing on the largest value drivers of success in an integrated
way across the entire value chain. We uncover hidden value and drive greater success for fuel retail
businesses through combining comprehensive data and robust analytics, leveraging deep industry
experience to deliver customized insights and solutions to clients.

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“With no price regulation, fuel retailers are fully responsible for their network’s performance and
profits. Best-in-class retailers combine smart location planning with micro-market pricing. Kalibrate
has the strategies and solutions to do it.” - Jude D’Souza, Regional VP, Kalibrate India

• 19,765 retail outlets surveyed, collecting 100+ site attributes covering major highways and
metropolitan areas

• Demographic and traffic data available for all outlets surveyed
• Permanent presence in Mumbai since 2002
• Constant dialogue with all major fuel retailers gives unique insights into Indian consumers and

key trends
• Kalibrate India formed in June 2016 – joint venture with Indian based Transcend Solutions

• Intentions to recruit permanent staff to service clients in India
• All local business to be contracted, invoiced and serviced via Kalibrate India LLP
A total area of 1,243,417km was surveyed by Kalibrate in 2010, part of which was then refreshed in
2012. A full refresh of all markets is currently underway – throughout 2016 all existing sites and are
being revisited and all new sites are being surveyed and photographed. Market data is then broken
down into 35 individual markets and made available within Kalibrate’s Network Planning Solution for
analysis.

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India Overview Outlet Share Market Share Market Effectiveness

As of May 2016, all three government companies 50.00 4.5
continue to hold the majority of outlet and 45.00 4.0
market share with a total combined outlet share 40.00 3.5
of 93.6%. Indian Oil and Hindustan Petroleum 35.00 3.0
have outlet shares of 44% and 24% respectively, 30.00 2.5
with similar market shares and a Market 25.00 2.0
Effectiveness of ~1. Bharat Petroleum is 20.00 1.5
performing better with a Market Effectiveness of 15.00 1.0
1.2. 10.00 0.5
0.0
Private companies Reliance and Essar are shown 5.00
to be outperformed by the big three, however in 0.00
reality when taking growth into account this is not
the case.

Fuel demand is growing year on year, partly driven by vehicle sales:

As a result, a 14% increase has been seen for petrol and 6% diesel. Although demand is increasing,
government led fuel retailers in India are growing at less than market rate. Private companies are
clearly noted to be benefiting the most:

In Petrol sales, 2 Govt. companies grew at < market rate (14%)
• Reliance grew volume @ >10 x market rate (due to sites coming on-line)
• Essar grew volume @ 3 x market rate

In Diesel sales, All Govt. companies grew at < market rate (6%)
• Reliance grew volume @ 200 x market rate
• Essar grew volume @ 40 x market rate
• Shell grew volume @ 50 x market rate

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Market Share Analysis

Kalibrate collects detailed information about the retail petroleum and convenience store industries.
This comprehensive information is summarized into insightful Market Share Intelligence reports that
can help you know more about your competitors, their volumes, their number of retail outlets, their
market share and how your network compares to theirs.

• Market Share % - This represents a brand’s total volume divided by the market total volume.
• Outlet Share % - This is computed by dividing the brand’s total number of open outlets by the

total number of open outlets in the entire market.
• Market Effectiveness - Market share percentage is divided by outlet share percentage to

derive this effectiveness ratio. Brands having effectiveness less than 1.0 are considered
ineffective marketers, while those with greater than 1.0 are considered very effective.

Benefits
• Most accurate information commercially available because it is collected via actual field visits
and then supplemented with actual sales data where available.
• Benchmark your network against others to understand your position in the marketplace.
• Know more about your competitors. Their number of outlets, market share and effectiveness.
• Incorporate into management reports and presentations.

Business impact
Businesses that utilise Market Share Intelligence reports have access to valuable information about
their competition enabling them to address one of the key petroleum retail value chain components –
their competition. Know how your brand performs versus your competition.
Petrol, Diesel, C-Store & Carwash models are available for selected markets worldwide.

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Variable Scores & Analytical Volumes

Kalibrate variable scores and analytical volumes
can be used to clearly identify the strengths and
weaknesses of every site. As part of the model
build process, using the 100+ data elements
collected for each site during survey, variable
scores are assigned to demand, area, facilities,
brand, merchandising, price, operations and
traffic for each and every site in a particular
market. These variable scores are used to
compare the strengths and weaknesses of each
site.

Variable Scores

Brand A 116 104 92 147 77 162 171

Brand B 97 106 66 107 75 162 230

Brand C 50 110 67 112 68 159 169

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Demand Area Traffic Facility Brand Acceptance Brand Concept Merchandising Price

Once the network planning model has benchmarked and assigned scores to each site based
on actual volumes, Analytical Volumes are calculated through an iterative calibration process
using variable scores. The calibrated model then understands, through the variable scores,
what is driving volume in each market and assigns analytical volumes to help explain the
strengths, weaknesses and opportunities at each site.

Analytical Volumes (000's litres per month)

1800
1600
1400
1200
1000

800
600
400
200

0

Brand A Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand E Brand F Brand G Brand H Brand I

Location Vol Facility vol Brand vol Operations vol Calculated vol Market Average

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Performance Analysis

One of the most widely adopted and valued
analytics found with Kalibrate’s Network
Planning Solution is the Performance or
Quadrant Analysis.

Performance Analysis provides the insight you
need by categorizing your outlets into one of four
quadrants:

High Performance/Low Potential – These are High Performance/Low High Performance/High
outlets that have above average performance and Potential Potential
below average locations. They are vulnerable to Sites: 22 Sites: 108
competitive threats but will most likely be retained
because of their superior performance. Av. Site Volume: 1,732,000 Av. Site Volume: 1,951,000
% of network: 8% % of network: 39%
High Performance/High Potential – These are the % of volume: 11% % of volume: 56%
highly regarded, having above average sales and
locations.

Low Performance/Low Potential – These are poor Summarised
performing sites having below average sales and Performance Analysis

locations. The outlets falling into this quadrant are Low Performance/Low Low Performance/High
often reviewed for possible divestment. Potential Potential

Low Performance/High Potential – These outlets have Sites: 93 Sites: 55
below average volumes with above average locations. Av. Site Volume: 814,000 Av. Site Volume: 1,009,000
In some cases, it is possible to rebuild or make other
changes (i.e., change price, improve c-store etc.) to % of network: 33% % of network: 20%
% of volume: 19% % of volume: 14%

move these sites from this quadrant to the high performance/high potential quadrant.

Know which of your outlets are positioned for improvement opportunities.
• Identify divestment candidates that are in poor locations.
• Understand which of your outlets are vulnerable because they sit on inferior locations.
• Learn from your outlets that have high performance and high potential.

Petroleum retailers that have utilised the Performance Analysis graph and report have been able to
focus their effort and limited resources to identify the best outlets in their network for divesture,
investment, or operational strategy implementation.

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Site Analysis

Kalibrate Location provides the ability to map “what if” scenarios and their outcomes - before you make
investments. Unbiased, reliable models help you assess challenging business decisions - like the impact
of a new brand sign, new acquisition or larger convenience store offer - so you can avoid poor decisions
and maximize profitable outcomes.

We take the guesswork out of new acquisitions or site changes. Whether single site analysis, acquisition
analysis, hot spot analysis or new site analysis, Kalibrate puts location intelligence to work for you. With
Kalibrate’s services, you can:

 Understand the outcome of your decisions before investing capital
 Get precise fuel and convenience store volume projections representing the dirt strength for

all new site possibilities
 See how an acquired outlet would impact sales at current outlets
 Expedite the search for best available properties based on your business requirements
 Understand how a site compare to competitors’ strengths and weaknesses
 Get effective information for use in negotiations

Single Site Analysis Acquisition Analysis

Refine your due diligence for any existing or What impact will a prospective acquisition have on
proposed new location. We provide you with your network, brand, volume and profitability?
accurate projections based on your unique goals. Acquisition Analysis makes sense of complex

Hot Spot Analysis possibilities so you can make educated growth and
development decisions.
What locations are best for your brand? Rely on
data-verified discoveries with a Hot Spot Analysis New Site Analysis
based on your brand, competitors, consumer traffic
The right location is just one of many elements that
and other factors important to your business. affect a site’s potential. New Site Analysis uncovers

alignments and gaps between a prospective site
and your current network strategies, so you can

grow intelligently.

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Market Planning

Preparing a Strategic Market Plan for Retail Fuels and Convenience
Kalibrate can help you to review your current strategies and thinking as far as it pertains to the future
roadmap for your retail fuels and convenience markets and create, in partnership with you or
independently, a strategic market plan that defines the market growth opportunities, key strategic
challenges, and proposed strategic options in terms of investment, divestment and acquisitions to
achieve your company vision.

Market Entry and Growth Strategy:
 Which markets are the most attractive markets for me to enter?
 Which markets will provide the maximum growth/market penetration opportunity?
 What is the point of critical mass and saturation within each market?
 Where is there currently unsatisfied demand within my existing markets?

Performance Management:
 How and where do I increase the performance of my existing network and as a result the value
of my sites, to ensure a higher ROI in the future?
 What is the investment required to do this and the projected return?
 How am I performing against my competitors across the 7E in my current markets?
 What investment is needed to become the pacesetter in the market?

Investment/Divestment Strategy:
 How should I invest capital for highest returns? Open new outlets? Rebuild/remodel existing
outlets? Change offerings at the sites?
 Should I divest underperforming sites or invest to increase performance?
 Are there network/site acquisition opportunities in the markets that matter?

Kalibrate Strategy Group can assist clients answer their questions regarding the retail fuels and
convenience markets they currently operate in, or wish to operate in, through the development of a
Strategic Market Plan.

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Market Ranking

Markets are assessed and ranked across a wide geography e.g. globally, by continent or by country
based on the markets strengths and weaknesses. Markets are assessed in terms of their market
attractiveness and competitive position (MACP) using statistically relevant variables and weightings
that reflect the needs of the client e.g.

 Market size
 Market effectiveness
 Margin
 Competitive intensity
 Economic growth
 Risk
 Regulatory barriers
 Supply constraints

Models are customized to be unique proprietary models reflecting clients input and client’s data.
Markets are ranked from most attractive to least attractive assisting clients to allocate capital and
operating resources most effectively. Kalibrate will determine the exact scope and deliverables based
on the available data for the markets under evaluation.

7E Assessment

A 7E Assessment provides a strategic perspective that enables fuel retailers to evaluate sites across
the entire consumer experience. Assessing the 7 elements provides an evaluation site by site, and
market by market.

The strategic market plan will apply a 7E assessment to benchmark retail performance against
competition in a given market, overall and for each of 7 critical contributors to overall performance
(Location, Facility, Merchandising, Brand,
Operations, Market and Price).This will
provide a quantitative way to identify priority
areas for improving retail performance.

The 7E scores are then complemented by
scores based on a diagnostic interview
process. This interview process will evaluate
many aspects of fuel retail performance and
highlight areas requiring attention in existing
retail operations.

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In-Depth Market Analysis

The strategic market plan will include an in-depth analysis on a market by market basis including:

 Understand retail fuel and convenience positioning vis-à-vis competitors - benchmark clients
against competitors to identify pacesetters in the market.

 Analyse competitor trends using historical data to assess competitor strategic
investment/divestment initiatives as well as to assess market and competitor growth rates and
market share movements over time.

 Identify ‘best in class’ operators within own and competitor networks for fuel, stores and food
offers.

 Analyse and benchmark convenience and food offers versus competitors and recommend
options for growth.

 Identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and risks within existing client and competitor
networks for fuel and stores.

 Identify growth areas for future retail participation in the market in both fuel and store offers -
both new to business opportunities and new to industry opportunities will be addressed.

 Establish the impact of fuel pricing on store performance and optimize this on an outlet by
outlet basis, using proprietary modelling techniques

 Understand convenience store and food offer market segmentation by assessing consumers’
stated and derived importance drivers when choosing where they go to fulfil their needs for
fuel, c-store and food service retail needs - segment the consumer base into behavioural
attributes and determine the likelihood
of selecting to store specific retail
formats and offers.

 Identify network strategies that extract
maximum value from existing retail
network across fuel and store.

 Estimate projected volume lift and
market share improvement resulting
from implementation of recommended
network optimisation.

 Provide strategic direction to
management on the scope and scale of
future retail capital and operational
resource allocations over a 5 year period.

 Recommend exit / de-capitalisation
outlets or entire markets.

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The typical process followed in carrying out market analysis is as follows:

Conversion for possibilities - sites selected based
predominantly on high performance potential
Assuming an unconstrained environment,
identified options/activity sets for the selected
sites
Key assumptions for running model
tactics agreed with management

Individual tactics run to identify
shop/volume uplifts
Tactics reviewed and

preferred option by site
agreed

Model run
incprperating
preferred options

Outcomes
identified

Cost to Serve

In addition, the strategic market plan can include supply chain optimization and ‘cost to serve’
calculations for each client outlet, incorporating:

 A site by site analysis of ‘cost to serve’ covering each point of supply through the supply chain
to each client outlet.

 In addition an optimisation model will be run of current outlets’ fuel supply network, and the
most cost effective supply chain will be identified from each supply point.

 These will highlight supply capacities, constraints and site ordering patterns within the supply
chain network which generally lead to high and unsustainable logistics costs.

 It will identify inefficiencies and potential improvements in supply activities.
 A supply chain strategy will be recommended, where necessary, and specific tactics and

interventions which have shown to lead to significant supply chain cost savings will be
recommended.
 Finally, a supply chain dashboard will be prepared which will monitor the efficiency and cost
effectiveness of the supply chain post optimization.

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Deliverables

Kalibrate will develop a Strategic Market Plan that is informed through a review of client’s current
market strategies, bottom-up micro-market modelling, stakeholder engagement and strategic
options analysis. This will include strategic options around execution of the plan. The final content
and format of the plan will be agreed with the client.

Based on the scope of the project as articulated above, we anticipate a Strategic Market Plan
document that will address the following:

 An analysis of client’s current market planning strategy and key challenges
 An overview of the competitive environment within markets and sub-markets
 A market segmentation recommendation or reaffirmation for fuel and convenience customers
 Recommendations for strategic options to be followed by client
 A synopsis of client’s supply and logistics position supporting its network of service stations

The deliverables will be prepared in draft and discussed with the client before finalization. Once
approved and finalized the deliverable will be handed over to the client. The client will be responsible
for the implementation of the recommendations. While we will use our best efforts to develop
recommendations that can be implemented successfully, we cannot be held accountable for the
successful outcome of the implementation thereof, as implementation is subject to a number of
variables outside of our control. Our deliverable will be prepared for your benefit, and may not be
shared with any third party without your prior written consent.

It is anticipated that iterative support will be required from the client through each step in the project,
ranging from project status meetings to on-site workshops. This will allow us to continually monitor
alignment with the project objective and deliverable timelines. Client responsibilities, to ensure a
successful outcome, include:

 Provision of access to any supporting data and information related to all of the markets
covered by this project

 Identification of and introduction to key stakeholders that the project team will need to
engage with during the development of the strategic market plan

 Stakeholders must be available for engagement with the project team when requested
 Sign-off of all outputs and deliverables within 5 business days of issue
 Client will provide facilities for meetings and workshops at its various geographical locations

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Case Study 1 – Europe

 A Venture Capital company purchased a fuel retail network across 3 European countries.
 They approached Kalibrate to assist them to improve the performance across these markets.
 Surveys were undertaken of all outlets in the three markets, both the clients’ and competitors,

identifying over 100 site attributes per outlet. More than 15000 sites surveyed.
 From this data, the Current Reality was established including the clients’ competitive position,

market effectiveness, real estate strength and performance potential.
 Workshops were held with the client to address under-performing outlets and to identify

opportunities for improvement, brand change or divestment/closure.
 Model simulations resulted in projected volume and shop turnover improvements based on

proposed interventions.
 Capital costs to achieve the desired outcomes were calculated and profitability improvement

was assessed.
 A detailed investment plan was prepared for the client.
 Due to the success of this project, the client has advised that Kalibrate will be their preferred

partner in the next phase of their strategic investment plan.

Case Study 2 – South Africa

 A multi-national oil company approached Kalibrate to assess their competitive position in the
convenience market in South Africa.

 A 7E score was undertaken addressing the seven elements of fuel retailing success:
o Price
o Location
o Market
o Merchandising
o Facility
o Operations
o Brand
o The client was benchmarked versus competitors on a list of convenience store key
indicators such as sales per m2, number of parking bays, number of gondolas, operating
hours, number of cash registers, number of frozen food cabinets etc.

 The client was made aware of the rapid change to the competitive landscape in convenience
retailing in the South African oil industry over the past few years and areas for improvement in
their network were highlighted.

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Case Study 3 – Market Entry Eastern Europe

 A client approached Kalibrate to assist is assessing the best locations for motorway sites in
order to be well-prepared for a tender process in an eastern European country.

 As Kalibrate had already surveyed this country, data was readily available regarding all the
fuel retailers currently operating in the market and their comparative strengths and
weaknesses.

 Our planning model has up to date traffic and demographic data.
 This information allowed us to provide the client with a clear understanding of the

competitive landscape.
 In addition, specific locations were identified together with the client as target sites for new

motorway service stations. These were simulated in the Kalibrate Location model and
projected fuel and shop volumes were provided to the client.
 This information allowed the client to go into the tender process with a clear
understanding of the expected return on investment they could achieve from this deal.

Case Study 4 – Market Entry Southern Africa

 A client wished to consider the purchase of a downstream oil company in South Africa.
 This would be a new market entry for this client.
 The client wanted to understand market attractiveness and the competitive position of the

target company.
 Kalibrate has been surveying the key fuel markets in South Africa for more than ten years

and has a wealth of information regarding these markets.
 Kalibrate was able to provide the client with market share, market effectiveness and outlet

share data by company for the key markets in South Africa and how these have moved
over time for petrol, diesel and shop turnover.
 Furthermore, the data we survey allowed us to be able to give significant insight into the
strength of the company’s network i.e. how strong is the real estate potential of the
network? Is the company fit for growth? Is the company’s network tired?
 Using our quadrant analysis methodology, we were able to provide valuable insights to the
client on the strengths and weaknesses of the company they were considering purchasing.

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A Few of the Questions Kalibrate Strategists Answer...

Before we design market strategies, benchmark performance or identify opportunities for

improvement, we listen to you. Kalibrate consulting engagements can help clients answer questions

and identify opportunities across the 7 Elements for Fuel and Convenience Retail Success, including but

never limited to:

MARKETS MERCHANDISING

• Which markets will give me maximum growth • Is my store and promotional layout optimized for

opportunity? Where is the unsatisfied maximum benefit, considering customer

demand? segmentation?

• What is the best strategy for entering newly • How do I price merchandise or optimum profit

deregulated markets? and impact on the forecourt?

• Are my current markets near critical mass and FACILITIES

saturation? • How should I improve the experience of my

• Am I monitoring the correct competitors for facilities?

each site? • Is the space at each site being used optimally?

PRICING • What variations in offerings are best for my retail

• Does my pricing strategy maximize sales and network?

profitability at the pump and in the store? OPERATIONS

• Is my pricing strategy being translated • Do my forecourt and in-store operations align for

effectively into daily pricing tactics? Am I missing maximum impact?

opportunities to increase margin or volume? • Do my operations support the experience

LOCATION customers want?

• Should I divest underperforming sites? Or • Do my operations support my retail network’s

should I invest to increase performance? value proposition?

• Should I buy or build? If I build, what locations BRAND

have the raw dirt strength to meet my goals • How is my brand performing compared to

and minimize cannibalization of existing sites? competitors?

• How are my sites performing against the • How can I increase my retail network’s brand

competition? value?

• If I acquire new sites, how will they perform with my

brand?

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