On Sunday, Iran's oil minister Bijan Zanganeh called for an emergency OPEC
meeting to stabilize prices.
As world commodities markets slumped to six-year lows last week and into
the weekend, he said, “Iran endorses an emergency OPEC meeting and
would not disagree with it.”
Algeria, another OPEC member, also called for an emergency meeting earlier
this month in order to boost prices after a year of shrinking profits for world
oil producers.
China's stock market dropped 8.5% this morning. The state's news agency,
Xinhua, is calling it “Black Monday.”
China is the world's biggest importer of fossil fuels, and with its economy
slowing down, lower demand has crushed oil prices, copper prices, and other
industrial exports.
An emergency OPEC meeting could boost prices if the member countries
decide to curb output, which is near record highs.
If you'll remember, it was last fall that OPEC member and pseudo-leader
Saudi Arabia decided to cut prices to China and boost its output in a move to
protect market share after U.S. shale oil sent ripples through the world's oil
market.
What's more, many OPEC members feel that a meeting and a production cut
won't take place without the approval of the Saudis.
While I'm sure the Saudis would like to make more money off of oil
production through higher prices, the Kingdom would also be reluctant to
give up market share, as it's said many times over the last year.
And even though Saudi Arabia and Iran are OPEC members, the two
countries don't exactly get along. A Saudi go-ahead on an emergency
meeting at the behest of Iran seems highly unlikely.
Especially when you take into consideration Zanganeh's other comments on
Sunday: “We will be raising our oil production at any cost and we have no
other alternative.”
So as Iran readies to flood the world with more oil and with no sign of an
OPEC production cut in sight, I'd like to welcome you back to 2009.
A common theme I noticed as I read through this morning's financial news
was that a majority of companies, especially commodities firms, were down
to six-year lows.
Ergo, we are back to 2009 prices for oil, copper, gas, and pretty much
anything else that China uses.
As China erases all of its gains in market share since the beginning of the
year, oil prices have returned to 2009 lows for both Brent and WTI...
As you can see, WTI and Brent cash prices per barrel show no signs of
improvement today. Tomorrow? Maybe, but it's impossible to know.
If the market is depending on China and OPEC to change their respective
tunes, there's no telling how long the damage to oil prices could last.
So once again, we're back to 2009 for most commodities and, perhaps soon,
stock markets around the world.
Many stories you'll read, like the ones I read this morning, will trumpet the
doom and gloom of low commodities and even worse share prices for energy
investors.
However, if we're back in 2009, I'd say we're about to see a period of
bullishness that I'm sure you wish you had gotten in on six years ago.
In fact, the reason I'm excited about the drop in shares worldwide is that a
correction is an amazing opportunity. With shares close to correction
territory — a 10% drop off of 52-week highs — the time to buy is here.
Here's Why You Should be Ready to Buy
It may seem outrageous to want to buy shares of anything right now while
markets tumble all over the world, but the truth is that corrections only
happen every so often. When they do, there's money to be had for investors
that can measure value.
Take a look at these charts...
This chart shows Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR), the U.S. shale darling
of the last decade. This company went from $10 per share back in 2009 to
over $50 per share in early 2014.
Yes, oil was at $100 per barrel in early 2014, but a correction hurts prices,
and a recovery provides gains along the way. It just takes time.
Right now, Continental is at $28 per share and could fall further over the
next few weeks. Still, it's worth buying if it goes back up to $60.
Even Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) enjoyed the recovery after 2009...
Above is the chart for Exxon between 2009 and 2014, and it shows
that even major oil firms can see decent growth when oil hits lows like this.
Remember, oil right now is at the same price it was before shares of Exxon
and Continental surged to the highs of 2014.
As another example, take a look at BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP).
The company — with commodity reserves of all types including coal, iron,
copper, and petroleum — more than doubled between 2009 and 2011.
Now, I can't guarantee that commodities will return, but the chances of
them staying so low for a prolonged period is highly unlikely. When demand
rebounds and supply returns to normal levels, investors who didn't get in
now will be kicking themselves.
If you're an investor who wants to make money, it only makes sense for you
to buy the correction dips and bear market lows. If you do, especially oil,
gas, and copper, you'll find that in a few years, you'll have grown your
money substantially.
If you'd like some more direction to good investments in the commodities
sector while prices are low, I suggest you take a look at my colleague Keith
Kohl's presentation, which can be found here.
As world markets tumble and the financial press paints a bleak picture,
remember, this will turn into a good thing in a little while, so allow me to
welcome you back to 2009.
Good Investing,
Alex Martinelli
With an eye squarely focused on the long-term, Alex Martinelli takes the art
of income investing to a higher level within the energy sector. His research
has helped hundreds of thousands of individual investors identify well
established companies that have a long history of paying out dividends to
their shareholders. For more info on Alex, check out his editor's page.