risk14

Multi Hazard & Risk Vulnerability .
Assessment (HRVA) of
Navi Mumbai .

1

About the Atlas
Hazard and risk assessments are the crucial first step in disaster risk management (DRM) and the basis for formulating DRM policies. They must take into account worst-case
scenarios in the event of the largest possible hazard, which are the areas at greater risk and who are the sections that are most likely to suffer their brunt. The usefulness of hazard
mapping may range from helping policy preparedness on DRM activities and even in preparation of ground level evacuation and management plans. The visual representation of
key components in vulnerability assessment through maps is thus a very important tool for dissemination, integration and assimilation of key information related to risk and
exposure. Maps are simple and comprehensive representation of ground reality. Mapping enables a community to recognise its own weaknesses, resources, and capacities, important
in changing the ultimate damage and loss scenario.

Framework Under Which the Atlas has been Developed
This atlas is published as part of the ongoing USAID-MHA-UNDP Partnership Project on “Developing Resilient Cities through Risk Reduction in the context of Disaster and Climate
Change” supported by USAID covering six cities of which one is ‘Navi Mumbai’. The project has two main objectives to (1) reduce disaster risk in urban areas by enhancing
institutional capacities to integrate climate risk reduction measures in development programmes as well as to undertake mitigation activities based on scientific analysis; and (2)
bettering preparedness among urban communities by increasing capacities to manage climate risks. One of the key activities under the project is to conduct hazard risk and vulnerability
assessments through an interactive and participatory process in Navi Mumbai which is prone to natural and man-made disasters like floods, fire, industrial hazards, earthquake, road
accidents, etc. This atlas compiles all the exposure and risk maps developed with respect to each of these hazards, as part of all deliverables.

Under the project, specific activities have been planned to attain key results such as: City Disaster Management Plans, Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Analysis, training of government
officials and communities to manage climate risks, action plans and pilots to strengthen Early Warning systems based on analytical studies, enhanced public- private partnerships
through pilot projects and climate change adaptation in development programmes and knowledge management.

Not only is flooding one of the most common and costly disasters, flood risk can also change over time because of new building and development, weather patterns and other factors.
Although the frequency or severity of impacts cannot be changed, FEMA is working with federal, state, tribal and local partners across the nation to identify flood risk and promote
informed planning and development practices to help reduce that risk through the Risk Mapping, Assessment and Planning (Risk MAP) program
Risk MAP provides high quality flood maps and information, tools to better assess the risk from flooding and planning and outreach support to communities to help them take action to
reduce (or mitigate) flood risk. Each Risk MAP flood risk project is tailored to the needs of each community and may involve different products and services. Learn more about the
goals and long term vision of Risk Map, how the program works and what it means for you in the sections below.

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Features of the Atlas
• The Atlas integrates information from both secondary and primary sources such as primary survey data of 2500 households across Navi Mumbai and data provided by

various departments at NMMC.

• The health and disease data is provided by the Health Department, NMMC and the fire data has been collated from record registers of the Fire Department, Navi Mumbai

• The Atlas represents both point exposures and calculated risk scenarios.

• Risk assessment model is based on DALA framework & for Damage assessment is based on Plinth Area method.

• The maps have been developed using SWMM 5, SWAT, etc.

Atlas Structure
This atlas broadly covers two components of Disaster Risk Assessment protocol, i.e. Exposure Assessment and Risk Assessment. The atlas takes into account 3 hazard types, i.e. 1)
Geophysical- Earthquakes and Landslides 2) Anthropogenic : Fire and Health Epidemics 3) Hydro- metrological: Floods and Urban Heat Island effects. As per the above hazard
types, the atlas is divided into 5 sections: a) Flood Exposure and Risk in Navi Mumbai b) Earthquake Exposure and Risk in Navi Mumbai c) Fire Exposure in Navi Mumbai d) Social
and Economic Vulnerability and Related Risk Maps e) Exposure to Urban Heat Island Effects in Navi Mumbai.

As per the MOVE framework on which we base our vulnerability assessment approach:

 Exposure describes the extent to which a unit of assessment falls within the geographical range of a hazard event. Exposure extends to fixed physical attributes of social

systems as well as human systems.
 Risk is defined as the probability of harmful consequences or losses resulting from interactions between hazard and vulnerable conditions. It is the potential for physical, social,

economic, environmental, cultural or institutional consequences or losses, in a given area and over a period of time.

Possible Use of the Atlas
The proposed HRVA will be integrated with the results emanating from the other activities such as training of communities in the selected wards to respond to disasters; preparation of
action plans to strengthen Early Warning Systems in the cities based on analytical studies; sectoral plans in city to mainstream DRR and Climate Change Adaptation in development
programmes; and Knowledge Management. These would further help to understand the scope to mainstream Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)
concerns in state, district and city level plans. The atlas would come around handy to disseminate hazard risk and exposure related information, not only for the various departments at
national, state and city level and all other stakeholders to mitigate risks posed by various hazards. This document includes the projected climate change scenarios (short term, medium
term and long term) taking into account the past trends so that the recommended solutions and actions could be linked with the Disaster Management policy, sectoral planning and
implementation of multi-hazard risk mitigation initiatives at community, ward and city levels. This could also become an important reference point for basing other studies in the area of
disaster related risk and vulnerability assessment for this region.

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DISCLAIMER

INRM Consultants Pvt. Ltd hereby declare that this risk analysis is our own and autonomous research. This work has been submitted to Navi Mumbai Municipal Corporation in
order to have brief analysis of predictive critical zones for different hazardous scenarios and no information derived from it may be published without the company’s prior consent.

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Copyright: Right to extract / translate any information from this report is reserved with the Authors alone.

Author’s or initial Contact with Respect to Report: Sankalp Lahari Neha Kshirsagar
Dr. Pawan Kumar Rai Pallavi Joshi
Email: [email protected] Satish Kumar Amritansh Malviya
Contact No.: +91 11 2685 2073

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INDEX ------- 1
------- 2
1. Study Area ------- 3
2. Rapid Visual Survey Location &Socio-Economic Survey Location ------- 4
3. Government Hospital, UHP & Fire Sations in Navi Mumbai
4. Water Resource Infrastructure & Social Facilities in Navi Mumbai ------- 5
------- 6
HAZARD SPECIFIC ANALYSIS ------- 7
------- 8
A. Flood Exposure and Risk in Navi Mumbai ------- 9
A.1 Flood Extent Map for Different Return Period - - - - - - - 10
A.2 Predicted Industrial Damage Area for Different Return Period Flood - - - - - - - 11
A.3Total Affected Area in Navi Mumbai for Different Return Period Flood - - - - - - - 12
- - - - - - - 13
B. Earthquake Exposure and Risk in Navi Mumbai - - - - - - - 14-16
B.1 Floorwise Distribution of Building for Each Electoral Ward in Navi Mumbai - - - - - - - 17
B.2 Map of Estimated Injury & Mortality Scenarios Earthquake Mw = 6 & 6.5 - - - - - - - 18
B.3 Zonewise Injury & Mortality Scenarios Earthquake Mw = 6 & 6.5 - - - - - - - 18
- - - - - - - 19
C. Fire Exposure in Navi Mumbai - - - - - - - 19
C.1 Occurrence of Fire Cases [Class B, C, E, F] in Navi Mumbai - - - - - - - 20
- - - - - - - 21
D. Social and Economic Vulnerability and Related Risk Maps - - - - - - - 22
D.1 Composite Index
D.2 Demographic and Social Vulnerability Index
D.3 Economic Vulnerability Index
D.4 Health Vulnerability Index
D.5 Structural and Civic Vulnerability Index

E Urban Heat Island
E.1 Analysis of Urban Heat Islands in Navi Mumbai

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Rapid Visual Survey in Navi Mumbai Socio-Economic Survey Location in Navi Mumbai

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Government Hospital, UHP Centers in Navi Mumbai Fire Stations in Navi Mumbai

Total Existing UHP 22
Centers

Total Existing Fire 4
Stations

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Water Resource Infrastructure in Navi Mumbai Social Facilities in Navi Mumbai

Infrastructural Details of Navi-
Mumbai

Total No. of 18
Holding Ponds

Total Length 99174 sq.m.
of Nallah

Area of Lake 128280 sq.km.

Length of 95572 sq.m.
Railway line

No. of 361
Busstops
STP Location Airoli, Nerul & Vashi
Node
Total area of 742732 sq. m.
Green Space
Total Area of 541568 sq.m.
Playground

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FLOOD EXPOSURE AND RISK IN NAVI MUMBAI

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Yearwise Distribution of Total Affected Industrial area in Navi Mumbai

5 Year 10 Year 25 Year 50 Year 100 Year
1999259 sq.m. 11867420 sq.m.
4065140 sq.m. 7203611 sq.m. 10574404 sq.m. 7

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Analysis of Flood Affected Area for 100
Years Duration

120.0%
100.0%

80.0%
60.0%
40.0%
20.0%

0.0%

5 year 10 year 25 year 50 year 100 year

It can be observed from map &
graphical analysis that : Ghansoli,
Airoli, Vashi & Belapur Nodes are
the critical flood zone & exhibits
Incremental Damage area
characteristics for 100 Years Flood
Return Period Analysis.

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EARTHQUAKE EXPOSURE AND RISK IN NAVI MUMBAI

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Map of Estimated Injury and Mortality Cases of Earthquake for Mw of 6 & 6.5

Comparative Analysis of Mortality & Injury
Rate for Mw =6 & 6.5

7.00 6.08 6.52 6.39 6.08

6.00 5.50
4.88
5.00 4.46
4.29 4.03 4.17
4.00 3.08 3.28 3.01 3.49
2.192.56
3.00 1.721.96 1.77 2.22 1.42 1.19 0.819.23 0.915.27
2.00 1.18 0.609.98 1.22 1.13 0.95
1.00

0.00

MW= 6 % Injuries Rate MW= 6 % Mortality Rate
MW=6.5 % Injuries Rate MW=6.5 % Mortality Rate

Losses (INR Crores)
Magnitude

Rehabilitation Infrastructure

6 890.4 94118.2

6.5 1352.4 94118.2

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Zonewise Injury and Mortality Cases of Earthquake for Mw of 6 & 6.5

Affected Node/Wards Remark

Some Area near Parasic Critical Zone (Need
hill in Airoli, Nerul and to Monitor )
Tubhe Node. Medium Zone
Industrial area of
Turbhe & Low Zone
Koparkhairane
Eastern zone of Nerul,
Vashi and
Koparkhairane
node

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FIRE HAZARDS 13

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Classification of Occurrence of Fire Hazards

Class A Fire Class B Fire Class C Fire Class D Fire Class E Fire Class F Fire

[Solid combustible [ flammable liquids [ Flammable [Combustible metals, such as [Combustion due to [Combustion due to
materials of Classification of gases under magnesium, sodium, human interference/ unknown reasons ]
organic nature such Fire ] pressure including potassium, etc.] errors ]
as wood, paper, liquefied gases ]
rubber, plastics, Explosion/ Chemical Reaction ,
etc.] Explosive, Incense Stick , Spontaneous Combustion
Gas Cylinder
Leakage, Welding sparks, Cable Doubtful, unknown
Damage, Firecracker,
Mechanical Spark,
Overheating,
Overhead Load,Short
circuit.

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Major Incidence of Class B Fire was observed in Turbhe followed by Vashi & Major Incidence of Class C Fire was observed in Koperkhairane in case of case of Gas

Koperkhairane Node. Cylinder leakage & Major incidence of Class C was identified in Turbhe Node.

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Major Incidence of Class E Fire was observed in Vashi followed by Major Incidence of Class F Fire was observed in Vashi followed by Turbhe &
Koperkhairane & Turbhe Node. Koperkhairane Node.

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SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RISK MAPS

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Nodename Rank CVI CV SV ECV SCV HLV
L
Vashi 1 M H L LM
M
Koparkhairane 2 H M L MH
H
Airoli 3 VH L HHL
VH
Nerul 4 VH MH HM

Turbhe 5 VH M H L

Belapur 6 VH M VH M

Digha 7 H VH M VH

Ghansoli 8 VH M H H

Rank 1: least vulnerable 1 L low vulnerability
Rank 8: most vulnerable 2 M moderate vulnerability
3 H high vulnerability
4 VH very high vulnerability

Note - CV: Composite Vulnerability, DSV: Demographic and Social Vulnerability, ECV: Economic
Vulnerability, SCV: Structural and Civic vulnerability, HLV: Health Vulnerability

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URBAN HEAT ISLAND 21

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Temperature Affected Node/Wards Remark
Change
>7 Degree Partial area of Ghansoli, Belapur, Industrial Critical Zone (Need
area of Turbhe & Koparkhairane to Monitor )
> 6 Degree Medium Zone
Industrial area of Turbhe & Koparkhairane
>5 Degree Low Zone
1.Maximum area of Digha, Turbhe &
Koparkhairane
2. Some Area near Parasic hill in
Airoli,Ghansoli & Belapur node

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