Peaks Everywhere!

Peaks Everywhere!

A view of the Himalayas from Lhasa

Tad Patzek, Petroleum & Geosystems Engineering, UT Austin

Department of Astronomy, Robert Lee Moore Building 15.216B, 11/2/2010, 3:30-4:30 p.m.

Technology. . .

. . . Challenges and reveals the Earth:

“Such challenging happens in that the energy
concealed in nature is unlocked, what is unlocked is
transformed, what is transformed is stored up, what
is stored up is in turn distributed, and what is
distributed is switched about ever anew. ”

“Everywhere everything is ordered to stand by, to be
immediately on hand, indeed to stand there just so
that it may be on call for a further ordering.”

Technology is a “standing-reserve” of energy for
humans to order nature and, in turn, be enframed by
their technology.

Martin Heidegger, The Question Concerning Technology, 1954

– p.1/41

In Plain English. . .

What Heidegger meant is:
We are an impatient species that regards a
standing-reserve of energy as a must
Since we cannot control technology, technology
cannot be our tool to control nature
We are a part of technology
We tend to think of technology as an instrument that
is outside of us. Instead, we are a part of a bigger
system that comprises us and technology

Our technological civilization is all about power (the
rate of fuel use), stupid!

– p.2/41

Summary of Conclusions. . .

The global rate of production of oil is peaking now,
coal will peak in 2-5 years, and natural gas in 20-50
years

There is PLENTY of fossil fuels (“resources”) left all
over the Earth

The resource size (current balance of a banking
account) is mistakenly equated with the speed of
drawing it down (ATM withdrawals)

Few understand the ever more stringent daily
withdrawal limits imposed by nature on our ATM
cards (oil & gas wells and coal mines)

Even fewer understand the high minimum balances
(resource left behind) imposed on all oil, coal and
gas recovery deposits

– p.3/41

Summary of Conclusions. . .

Economists, business people, and policy makers
generally have poor understanding of banking

They know what the rate of withdrawals (energy
demand) should be, but have little idea about the
withdrawal limits (energy supply)

Offshore and unconventional fields will be producing
an increasing portion of global oil supply

Solar energy flow-based solutions (wind turbines,
photovoltaics, and biofuels) will require most radical
changes of our lifestyles

Thermodynamically, industrial-scale biofuels are not
sustainable, and will damage the Earth’s most vital
ecosystems

– p.4/41

Oil Resides in Deep Subsurface

– p.5/41

Oil Resides in Small Pores

Alaska Peninsula-Bristol Bay reservoir (left), Naknek Formation (right)

– p.6/41

Accumulation vs. Production

Oil rate out
Varies a lot

Recoverable Oil, ∼1/3

Unrecoverable Oil, ∼2/3

Accumulation = Piggy Bank, Coin Slot = Oil Wells, Injection Wells, and Surface Facilities

– p.7/41

Mean Ultimate Recoveries

Far East
U.S.A.
Africa
Europe

Latin America
FSU

Middle East

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Mean Ultimate Recovery, % Oil−in−Place

Sources: Laherrere, 2002; Thomas, 2007

– p.8/41

Units in My Presentation. . .

The fundamental unit of energy is 1 exa Joule (EJ)

1EJ = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 J
is the amount of metabolized energy in food
sufficient to sustain the entire U.S. population for
one year @100 J/s-person = 100 W/person

continuously

Currently the U.S. uses 105 EJ/year; one hundred
and five times more than we need to live

If we were to metabolize this amount of energy, we
would be 15 m long sperm whales, each weighing 40
tonnes.

1 EJ/year = 32 GW of heat continuously ≈ 1 Tscf
NG/year = 1/2 million BOPD

– p.9/41

Homo Colossus Americanus. . .

1 Statistical American = 1 Sperm Whale

EUGENE ODUM, Ecological Vignettes, 1998

– p.10/41

Electricity generation: 39 EJp/y

350 Hydroelectric Rest
300 Nuclear 23
72

Days on Electricity/year 250 79

Natural Gas & Other

200 176
150

100 Coal

50

0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
1998

37% of U.S. primary energy use. Source: DOE EIA, accessed 03/28/2010

– p.11/41

Electricity generation – Rest

Days on Electricity/year 22 Geothermal 1
20 Wind 5
18
16 Wood & Other Biomass 5
14
12 Petroleum 4
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
8
6
4
2
0

1998

Solar thermal and PV = 1 hour of U.S. electricity. Source: DOE EIA, accessed 03/28/2010
– p.12/41

Transportation Fuels: 33 EJp/y

Ethanol 8
18
350
38

Residual Oil

300 99

Aviation Fuels

Days on Fuel/year 250

200 Distillate Oil 202

150

100 Motor Gasoline
50

0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
1950

31% of U.S. primary energy use. Source: DOE EIA, accessed 03/28/2010 – p.13/41

California’s Oil Supply

166

350 Foreign

300

Days on Petroleum/year 250 Alaska

200 55

150 144
100
California
50

0 1990 1995 2000 2005
1985

Sources: California Energy Commission, DOE EIA, accessed 10/28/2010

– p.14/41

Oil Consumption/ProductionTexas’ Oil Supply

1.4 – p.15/41
1.2

1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2

0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Sources: Texas Railroad Commission, DOE EIA, accessed 10/28/2010

The rare and unexpected. . .

Our ignorance the future should be
called anti-knowledge
Yet, we habitually form models of the
future
Models are not necessarily bad, but
they are limited
We never know in advance when
these models fail
The mistakes made using models can
have very severe consequences
Simple iterated/recursive models or of-
ten better than complicated ones

The Lucas Gusher, January 10, 1901

– p.16/41

Complexity and emergent properties

When this clockwork is disassembled and put back together properly, its behavior is predictable
The dissected frog will not hop off the table, when her intestines are squeezed in
The living frog has emerging, autonomous properties that cannot be gleaned from her carcass

– p.17/41

Complexity and earth systems

Reductionist approach customarily applied to all systems does not work for complex systems
New science, engineering, anthropology, sociology, political science, and psychology are needed
Source: Dr. Larry Lake, PGE, UT Austin

– p.18/41

Predicting the Future. . .

0.7

0.6

0.5

Million BOPD 0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0 – p.19/41
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Production histories of 65 oilfields in the North Sea. Sources: Norwegian Government
(2009), Patzek & Croft (2010). The thick lines are Ekofisk and Ekofisk West

. . . Emergent Behavior. . .

3.5

3

2.5

Million BOPD 2

1.5

1

0.5

0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
A single Hubbert curve explains almost all of Norwegian production in the North Sea

– p.20/41

A Future of Norwegian North Sea

30

25

Billion Barrels of Oil 20

15

10

5

0 – p.21/41
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Sources: Norwegian Government (2009), Patzek & Croft (2010)

Cumulative recovery, %Oil−in−PlaceNorth Sea: Ekofisk

Bubble point40 Production data
WaterfloodWaterflood response
Horizontal wells
35
– p.22/41
30

Infill wells

25

20

15

10

5

0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
OIP=6.4 billion bbl. Sources: Norwegian Government (2009), Patzek & Croft (2010)

Emergent Behavior in the Gulf. . .

1.5

Industry
Projection

1

Shallow water
Milion BOPD

0.5 Deep water Patzek’s

Projection

0 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
1940

Sources: U.S. DOE EIA, MMS, and Patzek’s calculations

– p.23/41

A Future of Deep Gulf

9

8

Billion Barrels of Oil 7

Industry Projection

6

Patzek’s

5 Projection

4

3

2

Historic data

1

0 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
1940

Sources: U.S. DOE EIA, MMS, and Patzek’s calculations – p.24/41

Total Gulf Oil/U.S. Oil Elsewhere

45
Thunder Horse

40

GOM Oil vs. Rest of U.S. Oil, % 35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1940

Sources: U.S. DOE EIA, MMS, and Patzek’s calculations – p.25/41

2006 Oil Data for GOM

1000 Proven oil reserves
Cumulative oil produced

Million barrels of oil 100

10

1 1000
1 10 100
– p.26/41
Rank = Number of fields larger than a field

Source: MMS data, 2006
Fractals everywhere! All that is relevant was discovered?

IEA Demand Growth Scenario. . .

OECD/EIA 2008 scenario of annual energy demand in the world
Source: www.iea.org/speech/2008/Tanaka/cop−weosideeven.pdf

– p.27/41

IEA and an Oil Production Peak?!

50 million bopd

There is an oil peak and 64 millions barrels of oil per day will be missing by 2030
Source: www.iea.org/speech/2008/Tanaka/cop weosideeven.pdf

−

– p.28/41

Scaling

Global energy production
schemes cannot be devel-
oped overnight, if ever. . .

– p.29/41

Stages of Oil Production

Primary as % of Oil−in−Place
Secondary
Tertiary

Rate

10% 25% 10%

Time

Primary recovery = 1 - 10% OIP, Secondary = 20 – 40%, Tertiary = 5 – 15%, Steam = 40 – 65%

– p.30/41

Oil Recovery Processes

Adapted by Larry Lake from the Oil & Gas Journal, Apr. 23, 1990

– p.31/41

Summary of EOR Processes

First deliberate application in the 1950s:
Approximately 10% of U.S. production from EOR
U.S. accounts for 1/4 of worldwide EOR production
Chemical projects:
Meteoric rise and fall in the 1980s
Least popular EOR today (exc. of FSU, China)
Mostly polymer injection
Fewer than 40 projects, 20 polymer projects in
China
Thermal projects:
Accounts for 50% of EOR oil
Around 165 projects, but declining

– p.32/41

Summary of EOR Processes, cntd.

First deliberate application in the 1970s, in the Permian
Basin in Texas:

Solvent projects:
Substantial growth in last 10 years to 167 projects
About 116 projects are miscible CO2 and 14
immiscible CO2
The other 37 projects are miscible and immiscible
hydrocarbon gas injection
Carbon dioxide storage opportunities

Source: The Oil and Gas Journal, The Annual EOR Projects Survey, 2008.

– p.33/41

World’s EOR Projects: 2.5 MBOPD

Other Thermal
Gas injection

China

Indonesia

Canada

Venezuela

Mexico

USA

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Major EOR Projects, Million BOPD

Adapted from the Oil & Gas Journal; Thomas, 2007

– p.34/41

Mining of Canadian Tar Sands

Source: assets.wwf.org.uk/downloads/scraping_barrell.pdf – p.35/41

Canadian Tar Sands: 1.5 MBOPD

Source: earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/01/tar-sands-production-graph.html

– p.36/41

EOR and Tar Sand Production

The three highest producing oil fields on the Earth
have been Ghawar, Cantarell, and Burgan

Ghawar produced perhaps 4.5 million barrels of oil
per day (mbopd) in 2009, Cantarell declined from 2
mbopd in 2004 to 0.5 mbopd in 2009, and Burgan
declined from 1.7 mbopd in 2005 to 1 mbopd in 2009

If one doubles current oil production from EOR, one
obtains 5 mbopd, not the 50 mbopd projected

By 2030, oil production from the Canadian tar sands
may increase to 4 – 5 mbopd of syncrude oil and
bitumen, but not 10 mbopd

It seems that the additional 50 mbopd of oil
production will have to originate from the newly found
supergiant oilfields (but how?!)

– p.37/41

Second and Third Hubbert Peak

30
Production

Hubbert cycles

Future UNG
25

Marketed NG Production, EJ/Year 20

15

10

5

0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150
1850

Future Unconventional Natural Gas Cycle = 100 years of U.S. Supply – p.38/41

Unconventional Gas

2000 Fundamental Hubbert peak
1800 All peaks

Cumulative Natural Gas Production, EJ 1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Extra 1,200 Tcf = $4.3 trillion at $3.6 per mcf, mostly from unconventional gas – p.39/41

Energy Intensity of Manufacturing

800

700

BOe/$1 million in manufactured goods 600

500

400 All energy

300

200

100 Oil

0 1985 1990 1995 2000
1980

Energy content of world trade, G. Wagner, Environmental Defense Fund

– p.40/41

Power Density Oil/gas fields
World field average
Asia Solar PV in U.S.
Latin America Wind turbines

CIS
Africa
Europe
Middle East

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Watts of electricity equivalents per square meter

Adapted from Laherrere, 2003, Patzek, 2007

– p.41/41