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Published by lmahlatsi, 2022-04-04 04:45:13

Doc5 trail 2022

Doc5 trail 2022

SUMMARY ANALYSIS OF SOUTH AFRICA’S
TOURIST ARRIVALS FOR OCTOBER 2021

A total of 247 833 tourist arrivals was recorded in
October 2021 which was an increase of 235,0% (173

845) compared to the same month in 2020.

During October 2021, South Africa was under adjusted alert level 1, which allowed for international
tourists to travel to the country subject to restrictions. These restrictions stipulated that all travellers
visiting the country will be expected to abide by the regulations that include mandatory wearing of
masks at all times, practising social distancing in public spaces, regular washing or sanitizing of hands
and presenting a negative COVID-19 test result not older than 72 hours from the time of departure
(https://www.gov.za/covid-19/about/coronavirus-covid-19-alert-level-1). Statistics South Africa
(Stats SA) has therefore published data on the number of tourist arrivals during October 2021, and
this report provides a further analysis of the tourists that travelled to South Africa during October
2021. The performance of tourism related industries namely; accommodation, food and beverages,
and aviation for October 2021 compared to October 2020 is also provided in this report.

TREND ANALYSIS: OCTOBER 2016 – OCTOBER 2021

Figure 1 below indicates tourist arrivals for the period October 2016 to October 2021. Tourist
arrivals increased from 850 956 in 2016 to 880 168 in 2017, which was an increase of 3,4% (29
212). Tourist arrivals however decreased in 2018 moving from 880 168 in 2017 to 862 046 in
2018, which was a decrease of -2,1% (-18 122). Tourist arrivals further decreased by -3,2% (-27
771) in October 2019 compared to the same month in 2018.

Figure 1: Total Tourist Arrivals October 2016 to October 2021

Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21

Tourist Arrivals 850 956 880 168 862 046 834 275 73 988 247 833
Diff.
% Diff 102 395 29 212 (18 122) (27 771) (760 287) 173 845

13,7% 3,4% -2,1% -3,2% -91,1% 235,0%

Source: Stats SA Tourism and Migration report, October 2021 and tourist arrivals data cuts

OCTOBER 2021 TOURIST ARRIVALS BY REGION

Table 1 below indicates tourist arrivals by region for October 2021 compared to the same
month in 2020. All regions experienced an increase in tourist arrivals during this month
compared to the same month of the previous year. Central and South America recorded the
highest increase of 1 260,8% (1 513) followed by North America (1 170,9%; 10 011) and Europe
(706,1%; 34 288). Africa also recorded an increase of 186,8% (122 352) and this region remains
the main source of tourist arrivals to the country, accounting for 75,8% (187 837) of total
tourist arrivals during this month.

Table 1: Total Tourist Arrivals by Region: October 2021 vs October 2020

Region OCTOBER 2021 OCTOBER 2020 Diff % Diff.

EUROPE 39 144 4 856 34 288 706,1%
NORTH AMERICA 10 866 855 10 011 1170,9%

CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA 1 633 120 1 513 1260,8%

AUSTRALASIA 576 212 364 171,7%

MIDDLE EAST 1 726 253 1 473 582,2%

ASIA 5 530 2 029 3 501 172,5%

TOTAL OVERSEAS 59 475 8 325 51 150 614,4%

AFRICA 187 837 65 485 122 352 186,8%

Unspecified 521 178 343 192,7%

GRAND TOTAL 247 833 73 988 173 845 235,0%

Source: Stats SA Tourism and Migration Report, October 2021 and tourist arrivals data cuts

JANUARY-OCTOBER 2021 COMPARED TO JANUARY-OCTOBER 2020

Tourist arrivals figures by region for the period January-October 2021 compared to the period

January-October 2020 are indicated in table 2 below. Total tourist arrivals went down by -

31,4% for the period January-October 2021 compared the period January-October 2020. This was

a decline from a total of 2 503 165 tourist arrivals recorded during January-October 2020 to 1

716 944 (-786 221) during the period January-October in 2021. Total tourist arrivals from the

overseas market decreased by -58,5% (-356 544). Australasia (-87,2%) recorded the highest

negative growth followed by Central and South America (-75,2%), Europe (-67,9%), Asia (-33,0%),

North America (-20,3%) and Middle East (-12,3%).

Table 2: Total Tourist Arrivals by Region January-October 2021 vs. January-October 2020

Region Jan-October 2021 Jan-October Diff % Diff

2020
(Month of April to

September: 0 tourists
recorded)

EUROPE 131 550 409 768 -278 218 -67,9%

NORTH AMERICA 66 133 83 028 -16 895 -20,3%

CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA 7 303 29 481 -22 178 -75,2%

AUSTRALASIA 3 040 23 732 -20 692 -87,2%

MIDDLE EAST 9 743 11 112 -1 369 -12,3%

ASIA 34 840 52 032 -17 192 -33,0%

TOTAL OVERSEAS 252 609 609 153 -356 544 -58,5%

TOTAL AFRICA 1 461 093 1 890 839 -429 746 -22,7%

Unspecified 3 242 3 173 69 2,2%

GRAND TOTAL 1 716 944 2 503 165 -786 221 -31,4%

Source: Stats SA Tourism and Migration Report, October 2021 and tourist arrivals data cuts

Table 3 below gives the rankings of the top ten African source markets for the period January-
October 2021 compared to January-October 2020. Most of the top ten African source markets
moved their positions except for Eswatini and Botswana which ranked in 4th and 5th positions
respectively in Jan-October 2020 and Jan-October 2021. Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia,
Tanzania and DRC all moved up their positions in 2021. Mozambique moved from the 3rd
position during January-October 2020 to 1st position during the same period of the previous
year, DRC moved from the 12th position in January-October 2020 to 10th position in January-
October 2021 replacing replaced Nigeria as the top ten African country. Tanzania moved from
the 10th position to the 9th position. Zimbabwe moved from 1st position to 2nd position and
Lesotho moved from 2nd position to 3rd position for the period under review.

Half of all the top ten African countries recorded an increase with
Namibia recording the highest positive growth of 69,5%, followed by
Zambia (51,3%), DRC (39,5%), Mozambique (15,3%) and Tanzania
(14,0%).

Table 3: South Africa's Top 10 African Source Markets: January-October 2021 vs. January-

October 2020

Country Rank: Tourist Arrivals Jan- Rank: Jan-Oct 2020 Tourist Arrivals % Change from Jan-
Jan-Oct Oct 2021 (Month of April to Jan-Oct 2020 Oct 2020 to Jan-Oct
September: 0 tourists
2021 2021
recorded)

Mozambique 1 414 855 3 359 943 15,3%

Zimbabwe 2 322 410 1 601 500 -46,4%

Lesotho 3 277 395 2 420 036 -34,0%

Eswatini 4 137 108 4 196 140 -30,1%

Botswana 5 75 942 5 120 123 -36,8%

Namibia 6 71 346 7 42 080 69,5%

Zambia 7 54 159 8 35 801 51,3%

Malawi 8 42 915 6 45 341 -5,4%

Tanzania 9 10 274 10 9 016 14,0%

DRC 10 9 567 12 6 857 39,5%

Source: Stats SA and tourist arrivals data cuts October 2021

Table 4 shows the rankings of the top ten overseas source markets. Comparing January-October
2021 with January-October 2020, all of the top 10 overseas markets recorded a decrease in tourist
arrivals except for Russia Federation which increased by 43,3%. Majority of overseas source
markets moved their positions except for Germany and France which ranked in 2nd and 4th
positions respectively. USA replaced UK as the main overseas source market despite experiencing
a decline of -8,0%.

In the Jan-October 2021 top ten list, Brazil,
Australia and Canada were replaced by
Russian Federation, Belgium and China.

In Australasia, Australia had the highest decline in volume of -17 517 (-87,6%) followed by New
Zealand (-3 147; -85,2%). In Central and South America, Brazil recorded the highest decline in
volume (-15 027: -79,4%) for the period under review. The United Kingdom had the highest
decline in volume (-98 192; -81,2%) in the Europe region. Tourist arrivals from Africa region
decreased by -22,7% (-429 746) during the same period under review, and this decline in
volume was driven by Zimbabwe (-279 090; -46,4%), followed by Lesotho (-142 641; -34,0%)
and Eswatini (-59 032; -30,1%), refer to table 4 below.

Table 4: South Africa's Top 10 Overseas Source Markets: January-October 2021 vs. January-

October 2020

Country Rank: Jan- Tourist Rank: Jan-Oct 2020 Tourist % Change from Jan-
Oct 2021 Arrivals Jan- (Month of April to Arrivals Oct 2020 to Jan-Oct
September: 0 tourists Jan-Oct
Oct 2021 2021
recorded) 2020

USA 1 61 291 3 120 984 -8,0%

Germany 2 25 683 2 99 473 -74,2%

UK 3 22 792 1 120 984 -81,2%

France 4 13 861 4 37 815 -63,3%

India 5 13 770 8 17 406 -20,9%

The Netherlands 6 11 999 5 32 247 -62,8%

Russian Federation 7 7 871 20 5 491 43,3%

Switzerland 8 6 659 10 13 801 -51,7%

Belgium 9 5 754 13 11 124 -48,3%

China 10 5 593 12 11 764 -52,5%

Source: Stats SA and tourist arrivals data cuts October 2021

______________________________________________________________________________

PERFORMANCE OF SOUTH AFRICA’S TOURISM RELATED
INDUSTRIES:

OCTOBER 2021 COMPARED TO OCTOBER 2020

Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on
tourism related industries performance

On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) had declared the
Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak a pandemic (WHO, 2020). In order to limit the spread
of COVID-19, many countries had started to introduce lockdown measures, which
prevented people from leaving their countries. On 1 June 2020, the South African
government adopted the risk adjusted strategy, which aimed to increase economic
activity while putting measures in place to reduce the transmission of the virus. As part
of this approach, five (5) Coronavirus alert levels were introduced, mainly indicating
the different sectors that can operate under these levels.
More information on the regulations can be sourced from the website:
www.gov.za/coronavirus.

For the month of October 2021, South Africa was under adjusted level 1 which was from 01
October. During October 2020, South Africa was also under lockdown level 1. The table
below provides a summary of the lockdown regulations of the different levels for the
accommodation, food and beverage and aviation industries. The performance of the tourism
related industries therefore should be viewed within the context of South Africa’s COVID-19
lockdown regulations for the different lockdown restriction levels.
Table 5: South Africa COVID-19 level 1 regulations for the accommodation, food and
beverages and aviation industries

Source: www.gov.za/coronavirus

2.1 ACCOMMODATION INDUSTRY: OCTOBER 2021

ACCOMMODATION INDUSTRY INCOME: OCTOBER 2021 COMPARED TO OCTOBER 2020

Table 6 below provides the total income from the accommodation industry which
comprises of income from restaurants, bar sales, income from accommodation only
and other income for October 2021 compared to October 2020. Other income
includes income from casino gambling, laundry and telephone services, rentals
and fees received for transport services, offices, shops, garages, etc. During October 2021, the
total income (current prices) from the accommodation industry recorded an increase of 95,5%
compared to October 2020. Total income from all categories recorded an increase except for
caravan parks and camping sites recording a decrease of -7,7% for October 2021. Hotels recorded
the highest increase of 130,2% moving from R964,0 million in October 2020 to R2219,4 million in
October 2021.

Table 6: Income from accommodation (current prices: October 2021 compared to October

2020)

Type of October 2021 October 2020 % Change
Accommodation Total
Income
Restaurants, Accommoda Other Total Restaur Accomm Other Total
income Income income October
bar sales tion only income ants, bar odation 2021

sales only compared
to October

2020

Hotels (R million) R346,7 R673,8 R1 198,9 R2 219,4 R212,9 R380,3 R370,8 R964,0 130,2%
R0,6 R25,8 R0,1 R26,5 R0,3 R28,4 R0,0 R28,7 -7,7%
Caravan parks
and camping R7,5 R69,9 R1,8 R79,2 R4,3 R46,1 R1,4 R51,8 52,9%
sites (R million)
Guest houses R76,2 R520,5 R37,6 R634,3 R53,3 R388,8 R27,0 R469,1 35,2%
and guest farms
(R million) R431,0 R1 290,0 R1 238,4 R2 959,4 R270,8 R843,6 R399,2 R1 513,6 95,5%
Other
accommodation
(lodges, bed-and-
breakfast, self-
catering, and
‘other’
establishments
not classified)
(R million)
Total Industry -
(R million)

Source: Stats SA: October Accommodation data cuts and report, 13 December 2021

Table 7 below indicates that income from accommodation (excluding restaurants, bar sales and
other income) went up by 52,9% during the same period under review. All categories of
accommodation recorded an increase in income levels except caravan parks and camping sites
with a -9,2% decrease and Hotels recording the highest increase of 77,2%; followed by guest
houses and guest farms (51,6%) and other accommodation (33,9%).

Table 7: Income from Accommodation (Excluding restaurants, bar sales and other income):
October 2021 compared to October 2020

Type of Accommodation October 2021 October 2020 % Change

Accommodation only Accommodation October 2021

only compared to

October 2020

Hotels (R million) R673,8 R380,3 77,2%

Caravan parks and camping sites R25,8 R28,4 -9,2%

(R million)

Guest houses and guest farms R69,9 R46,1 51,6%

(R million)

Other accommodation (R million) R520,5 R388,8 33,9%

Total Industry – (R million) R1 290,0 R843,6 52,9%

Source: Stats SA: October Accommodation data cuts and report, 13 December 2021

The monthly percentage change of income from accommodation industry (excluding restaurants,
bar sales and other income) for January to October 2021 compared to January to October 2020
is provided in table 8 below. Income from accommodation recorded an increase of 52,9% during
October 2021 compared to the same month in 2020. For April to September 2021, the results
show an increase in income compared to the same months of the previous year.

Table 8: Year on Year Change in income from Accommodation January-October 2021

compared to January-October 2020

MONTH 2020 2021

January 5,3% -70,9%

February 9,4% -75,1%

March -41,1% -40,6%

April -98,0% 2291,1%

May -97,5% 1724,6%

June -94,5% 653,5%

July -92,0% 241,5%

August -83,2% 125,4%

September -74,4% 74,2%

October -68,7% 52,9%

Source: Stats SA: October Accommodation Report, 13 December 2021

ACCOMMODATION INDUSTRY OCCUPANCY RATE: JANUARY - OCTOBER 2021 COMPARED TO
JANUARY - OCTOBER 2020

Table 9 below indicates occupancy rates by accommodation type for the months of January to
October 2021 compared same months in 2020. The total accommodation occupancy rate
recorded in October 2021 was 30,0% which was an increase compared to 21,8% in October 2020.
The occupancy rate of all accommodation establishments increased in October 2021 compared
to same month of the previous year.

Table 9: Occupancy Rate by Month: January-October 2021 vs. January-October 2020

Month Hotel Caravan Parks Guest- Other Total

and Camping Houses and Accommodation Accommodation

Sites Guest Farms

Jan-20 46% 30,7% 35,8% 44,6% 43,3%
Jan-21 14,3% 24,8% 12,8% 25,2% 18,2%
Feb-20 53,9% 29,9% 34,7% 45,7% 47,6%
Feb-21 16,3% 25,6% 13,3% 19,4%
Mar-20 30,4% 29,5% 25% 29,9%
Mar-21 21,6% 29,1% 23% 31,3% 23,5%
Apr-20 13,8% 28,4%
Apr-21 1,6% 0,4% 1,2%
May-20 24,6% 31,1% 0,8% 0,9% 26,6%
May-21 15,4% 32,4%
1,5% 0,3% 1,3%
Jun-20 22,5% 35,9% 0,3% 1,4% 23,8%
Jun-21 14,5% 25,9%
Jul-20 3,9%
Jul-21 19,4% 0,3% 1,2% 3,4% 3,2%
Aug-20
Aug-21 5,8% 35,8% 14,6% 24,5% 21,8%
Sept-20 12,4%
Sept-21 0,6% 3,3% 5,1% 4,9%
Oct-20 9%
Oct-21 20% 33,7% 8,2% 19,3% 15,9%
15,2%
26,4% 6,4% 3,4% 12,3% 9,2%
18,8%
31,6% 30,6% 13,4% 24,5% 21,9%

21,1% 7,2% 21,5% 16,8%

33,3% 19,1% 28,8% 27,0%

30,6% 13,8% 27,3% 21,8%

31,5% 19,3% 30,4% 30,0%

Source: Stats SA: October Accommodation data cuts, 13 December 2021

In addition to the Stats SA’s accommodation report, the
Department also subscribes to STR Global which collects
information from hotels on a monthly basis. The performance of
the South African hotel industry for October 2021 compared to
October 2020 is provided in table 10 below.

It is important to note that the STR hotel data information for October 2021 and October 2020
is from a sample of 228 hotels that is drawn from a census/population of 417 hotels. There was
an increase recorded in all hotel performance indicators in October 2021 compared to October
2020 with hotel occupancy rate increased by 68,0% in October 2021 compared to October 2020
moving from an occupancy rate of 30,1% in October 2020 to 50,5% in October 2021. The
Average Daily Rate (ADR) for October 2021 was R1 083,4 which was an increase of 6,2%
compared to R1020,0 in October 2020. The Revenue Per available room also increased by
78,5% moving from R306,5 in October 2020 compared to R547,1 in October 2021.

Table 10: South Africa Hotel Performance: October 2021 compared to October 2020

Month Occupancy % Change Average % Change Revenue % Change Census Sample

rate Daily Rate per

(Rand) available

room
(Rand)

21-Oct 50,5% 68,0% R1 083,4 6,2% R547,1 78,5% 417,0 228,0
20-Oct 30,1% R1 020,0 R306,5

Source: STR Hotel Data October 2021

2.2 FOOD AND BEVERAGE INDUSTRY

FOOD AND BEVERAGES INDUSTRY INCOME: OCTOBER 2021 COMPARED TO OCTOBER 2020

The results in table 11 indicates that the total income for the food and beverages industry for
October 2021 was about R5 366,9 million, which was an increase of 32,7% compared to R4 043,4
million in October 2020. All of the food and beverages industries showed an increase in income
during the period under review.

Table 11: Total income at current prices by type of enterprise (R million): October 2021

compared to October 2020

Categories of Food and October 21 October 20 % Change
Beverages

Catering services (R million) R752,7 R635,3 18,5%

Take-away and fast food outlets R1 833,9 R1 432,5 28,0%
(R million) R2 780,3 R1 975,6 40,7%
Restaurants and coffee shops (R R5 366,9 R4 043,4 32,7%
million)
Total Industry (R million)

Source: Stats SA: October Food and beverages data cuts and reports, 13 December 2021

The monthly percentage change of income from the food and beverage industry for January and
October 2021 compared to January and October 2020 is provided in table 12 below. Income from
food and beverage industry recorded an increase of 32,7% during October 2021 compared to the
same month in 2020. The table further indicates that there was also an increase recorded in April
to October 2021 compared to April to October 2020.

Table 12: Year on Year Change in income from food and beverage industry: January-October

2021 compared to January-October 2020

MONTH 2020 2021

January 5,2% -46,5%

February 4,0% -35,1%

March -30,3% -4,0%

April -94,5% 1 321,9%

May -87,4% 545,7%

June -65,8% 106,9%

July -57,2% 43,1%

August -52,3% 51,3%

September -42,4% 32,5%

October -36,3% 32,7%

Source: Stats SA: October Food and beverages data cuts and report, 13 December 2021

2.3 AVIATION

PASSENGER ARRIVALS MOVEMENT: OCTOBER 2021 COMPARED TO OCTOBER 2020

Table 13 gives the total passenger arrivals at Airports Company South Africa (ACSA) airports
during October 2021 compared to October 2020. Total passenger arrivals increased by 98,2%
moving from 515 223 in October 2020 to 1 021 041 in October 2021.

Table 13: Arriving Passengers: October 2021 compared to October 2020

Arriving Passengers October 21 October 20 % Change
287,3%
International 170 961 44 137
1558,4%
Regional 19 403 1 170 77,0%
47,1%
Domestic 825 231 466 213 98,2%

Unscheduled 5 446 3 703

Total 1 021 041 515 223

*1/ Changes from 0 in the preceding period cannot be calculated as a percentage

Source: ACSAs data cuts, October 2021

PASSENGER DEPARTURE MOVEMENT: OCTOBER 2021 COMPARED TO OCTOBER 2020

Table 14 shows the total passenger departing from Airports Company South Africa (ACSA)
airports during October 2021 compared to October 2020. Total departing passengers increased
by 93,9% from 518 019 in October 2020 to 1 004 570 in October 2021. All types of departing
passengers recorded an increase during October 2021 compared to October 2020.

Table 14: Departing Passengers: October 2021 compared to October 2020

Departing Passengers October 21 October 20 % Change
249,4%
International 154 558 44 238
1521,3%
Regional 19 634 1 211 76,0%
36,4%
Domestic 825 301 468 849 93,9%

Unscheduled 5 077 3 721

Total 1 004 570 518 019

*1/ Changes from 0 in the preceding period cannot be calculated as a percentage

Source: ACSAs data cuts, October 2021

___________________________________________________________________________

References:

1. Statistics South Africa December 15th 2021, October Tourism and Migration report.
2. Statistics South Africa, December 13th 2021, October Accommodation data cuts.
3. Statistics South Africa, December 13th 2021, October Food and Beverage data cuts.
4. Airports Company South Africa, October 2021. Data cuts.
5. STR Global RSA Hotel review data October 2021


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