Also, because about 100 people responded to each question, these numbers in the following tables can easily approximate the percentage of people who gave each answer. However, the numbers in the table represent the absolute number of people who gave each response. Number from 1 - 20 Think of a random number between 1 - 20. Write that number below. 1 1 11 3 2 0 12 11 3 1 13 7 4 5 14 3 s 8 15 6 6 4 16 4 7 13 17 13 8 5 18 5 9 5 19 0 10 7 20 0 Note that the most frequent responses are "1" and "17.'' Given the present data, this constitutes 26% of the responses. Color Think of the first color that comes to mind. Write the name of that color below. Black 5 Purple 6 Blue 43 Red 22 Green 15 White 3 Orange 2 Yellow 3 Pink 3 -200-
2-Digit Number Think of a random 2-digit number. Write that number below. 10 1 40 0 70 0 11 2 41 0 71 1 12 5 42 2 72 0 13 3 43 2 73 0 14 6 44 0 74 1 1S 3 4S 5 75 1 16 1 46 1 76 0 17 1 47 1 77 1 18 3 48 1 78 0 19 3 49 0 79 0 20 1 so 0 80 0 21 3 51 0 81 0 22 8 52 0 82 1 23 4 S3 1 83 0 24 3 S4 2 84 0 2S 8 SS 1 85 0 26 2 S6 0 86 0 27 1 57 0 87 0 28 2 58 2 88 0 29 0 59 1 89 0 30 0 60 0 90 0 31 1 61 0 91 0 32 3 62 1 92 0 33 2 63 0 93 1 34 0 64 1 94 0 35 1 65 0 95 0 36 0 66 1 96 0 37 1 67 0 97 0 38 1 68 0 98 0 39 0 69 1 99 0 An observation ... most responses are relatively low in the range of possible values. 28.6% of responses are lower than 20, 61.2% are lower than 30, and 82.7% are lower than 50. -201-
Coins Imagine you have a pocket full of coins. You reach in and pull one out. What coin did you pull out? Penny 6 Nickel 11 Dime 12 Quarter 63 SO Cent 2 Imagine tossing that coin in the air, watching it land on the table. Does it land heads-up or tails-up? Heads Up 68 Tails Up 30 NOTE: Separating the sample by gender suggests that these coin-based biases (for whatever reason) appear more strongly for men than women. That is, among men, 75% said Quarter, and 75% said Heads Up. Among women, however, 60% say Quarter and 63% say Heads Up. -202-
Dice Imagine you've picked up some dice, and you roll one of them. What number comes up? 1 2 2 7 3 16 4 22 5 20 6 27 7 3 8 1 Two interesting observations about this pattern: (1 J Some people think a normal die has up to 8 sides and (2) people overwhelmingly imagine a higher number coming up. See my use of this observation in the "Die Hard: Psy Force" effect at the end of this section. Room Think of any room in a house. Please write that room below. Bedroom 31 Living Room 28 Kitchen 20 Bathroom 10 Dining Room 6 Basement 1 Oen 1 Family Room 1 Hall 1 Library 1 Multipurpose Room 1 -203-
European Country Think of a country in Europe. Please write that country below. France 19 Germany 15 England 12 Italy 11 Spain 5 Poland 4 United Kingdom 4 Austria 3 Denmark 3 The following were mentioned by two people: Latvia, Norway, and Scotland. The following were listed once: Albania, Armenia, Belgium, Greece, Ireland, Lichtenstein, Portugal, Ukraine, and Venice Letter of the Alphabet Think of any letter in the alphabet. Please write that letter below. A 26 H 1 0 0 u 0 B 5 0 p 4 v 2 c 5 J 3 Q 4 w 0 0 6 K 8 R 4 x 2 E 2 L 1 s 4 y 0 F 7 M 3 T 0 z 8 G 3 N 3 -204-
Vegetable Think of a vegetable someone might buy in a grocery store. Please write the name of the vegetable below. Carrot 30 Broccoli 10 Tomato 10 Lettuce 8 Onion 7 Potato 5 Cucumber 4 Celery 3 Corn 3 Eggplant 2 Green Beans 2 Zucchini 2 The following were mentioned once: Asparagus, Butter Beans, Cauliflower, Cilantro, Kale, Okra, Peas, Pepper, Pickle, Red Pepper, and Squash. -205-
Month Think of any of the 12 months in a year. Please write that month below. January 10 July 16 February 15 August 8 March 10 September 5 April 6 October 6 May 4 November 3 June 7 December 10 An observation ... three of the most often listed months end in ''y" (January, February, and July), 45% of responses were months that end in "y" even though 33% of months end in ''y." -206-
Die Hard: Psy Force Based on an observation regarding people's answers to the "rolling a die" question, I developed this quick way to deduce the number of a person has imagined. Version 1 Begin by simply asking someone to imagine that they've picked up some dice, and then they roll one of them. Ask them to think about which number came up on the die. As we see in the table, it's likely that the number they're thinking of is a 4, 5, or 6. You thus begin by asking, "It's a relatively high number, isn't it?" If they say "yes" very quickly, then you know it's probably the 5 or 6 because those are obviously "high" numbers as far as dice are concerned. From there, probabilistically, it's the 6. If they say "yes" somewhat more hesitantly, then they're likely thinking of the 4- maybe the 5. Finally, if they say "no" flat out, then they're probably thinking the 3. 1 and 2 are pretty uncommon in this scenario. Version 2 You can also use this information in a nailwriter application. The key benefit is that you can use the basic probabilities get a hit before asking the person what he's thinking of (and thus, before the dirty work). You also get to use the basic probabilities to make the actual nailwriting moment very minimal. To being, you pull out a "prediction" card. As in the previous version, you simply ask someone to imagine that they've picked up some dice, and then they imagine rolling one of them. Ask them to think about which number came up on the die. Again, you begin by asking, "It's a relatively high number, isn't it?" Because you're likely to get this right based on probability, it lends credibility that you truly knew in advance what number they would roll. Assuming they say yes, you continue by asking, "and which -207-
number was it that you rolled?" When they say their answer, you turn the card around and show that you were right. To do the prediction part, you start with a prediction that looks like the 4 side of a die (see Figure 4a). If the person rolls a 4, then you have no work to do. Just turn the card around. If, however, the person rolls a 5, you just need to nailwrite a dot in the center of the prediction. Finally, if the person rolls a 6, you just need to nailwrite two dots in the correct places. Obviously, if they actually guessed a low number, you're pretty screwed here. If they think of a 3, then your pre-written 4 is pretty close, but in the less likely event that they say "l " or"2:'you'll just have to own up to being wrong. You could, of course, leave the prediction totally blank and nailwrite whatever they say, but accurately drawing the 5-side of a die quickly with your thumb might be a little tricky . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Pre-written Prediction They say "5" They say "6" Red dots indicate nailwritten dots. -208-
Closing Remarks Thank you again for purchasing and reading this book. This project has been something of a "labor of love," and one that I've been meaning to finish for many years now. Hopefully the finished product is worth your time and money. It is a joy for me to share the world of academic psychology with anyone who's interested in knowing about it. Its applications to mentalism are surely far wider than I can even see, and if you come up with new ideas or innovations based on what's in this book, please let me know! I'll be excited to see what you come up with. Please also check out the books listed on the following few pages and learn more about social psychology for yourself. There is plenty of fascinating research beyond what I could include in this book. Be wary, however, of information passing as "psychology" if it's not backed by solid scientific methods. Although it's plausible that their claims are true, it's too easy to make claims without the burden of solid research evidence. -209-
Recommended Reading If you any of the material covered in this book interested you, then you may be interested in reading more about the wonderful world of social psychology. Here is a list of books that are written for the public and cover many of the topics I have discussed. These books also cover topics that I may not have touched on here, but they serve as good resources to continue your psychology education. Most of them are books I have read, but I have to be honest and say that some are ones I haven't read myself but that have been well reviewed. Also, most of these books are written by social psychologists themselves. This gives me more comfort that the reviews are accurate as some journalists have a tendency to occasionally misrepresent the data. Malcolm Gladwell, for example, writes beautifully about social science but might sometimes sacrifice scientific accuracy for the larger narrative. Just be aware of this as you read. Stumbling on Happiness (Daniel Gilbert) - Daniel Gilbert pioneered research on "affective forecasting:' According to this research, people often fail to accurately predict how they will respond to future events. Blink (Malcolm Gladwell) - Although Malcolm Gladwell is not a social psychologist, this book got me interested in psychology. He talks about how people can make automatic, snap judgments that turn out to be accurate. Much of this premise comes from research popularized by Nalini Ambady on "thin slicing:' Mindwise: How We Understand What Others Think, Believe, Feel, and Want (Nicholas Epley) - Although he calls it "mind-reading;' the term might give the wrong idea of what Epley's research is about. In reality, Epley studies the process through which we come to know other people's minds. When shopping for a birthday present, how do you know what your friend will enjoy? Through theory of mind, we develop a sense of how others' minds work. Mindfulness (Ellen Langer) - This isn't the kind of "mindfulness" you hear about in relation to Buddhist practice but is instead more like the difference between "automatic" and "controlled" processing in -210-
social cognition. Ellen Langer is the person behind the Xerox study highlighting the power of the word"because"in inducing compliance. Strangers to Ourselves: Discovering the Adoptive Unconscious (Tim Wilson) - Here, Tim Wilson discusses the problems with relying on introspection as a way to attain self-knowledge. Willpower: Rediscovering the Greatest Human Strength (Roy Baumeister) - Written by the researcher behind "ego depletion;' this book considers research on the psychology of exercising self-control. Clash!: 8 Cultural Conflicts That Make Us Who We Are (Hazel Markus & Alana Conner) - There are many ways in which the difference between "independent" and "interdependent" self-concepts influence everyday life, and the differences go further than just Western vs. East-Asian culture. Geography of Thought: How Asians and Westerners Think Differently ... and Why (Richard Nisbett) - This book focuses on the difference between "analytic" and "holistic"thinking and how different cultures can perceive the world in distinct ways. Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less (Barry Schwartz) - This is perhaps one of the more popular books related to social psychology. I hear people reference this research often. It reviews work that shows having too many options can get in the way of making choices that people are truly happy with. Predictably Irrational (Dan Ariely) - When it comes to making decisions, people can rely on heuristics that aren't entirely rational. Dan Ariely helped popularize a new field of psychology referred to as behavioral economics. How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life (Thomas Gilovich) - This book discusses reliable errors in reasoning and judgment. Blindspot: Hidden Biases of Good People (Mahzarin Banaji and Anthony Greenwald) - This book is written by the developers of the Implicit Association Test (IAT) and covers the ways in which people can have unconscious biases against people of various social classes -211 -
(based on race, religion, sexuality, etc.) Delusions of Gender: How Our Minds, Society, and Neurosexism Create Difference (Cordelia Fine) - This is a great book about the difference between how different people perceive men and women to be and how little evidence actually supports these differences. It ends with an interesting discussion of the role neuroscience research can play in wrongly reinforcing these stereotypes. Whistling Vivaldi (Claude Steele) - Claude Steele pioneered a program of research on the unsettling phenomenon of "stereotype threat:'This is when members of stereotyped groups behave in a way that inadvertently confirms stereotype-consistent beliefs because of the fear of confirming those stereotypes. Influence: Science and Practice (Robert Cialdini) - This book seems to come up the most in recommendations for mentalism-related psychology books. Robert Cialdini is the big name in compliance research and in this excellent book, he outlines six norms of compliance and discusses research on many compliance techniques, including ones that I have reviewed here. Happy Money: The Science of Smarter Spending (Elizabeth Dunn and Michael Norton) -These authors discuss a body of research that shows the benefits of spending money on other people. According to their research, spending money on others makes the spender happier. Social: Why Our Brains Are Wired to Connect (Matthew Lieberman) - This new book about research in social neuroscience reviews the neurological counterparts to fundamental social processes. Matt Lieberman is one of the foremost experts in this field. The Social Animal (Elliot Aronson) - This is technically more like a textbook and many intro to social psychology classes use it as a textbook, but it is written more like a popular nonfiction book and covers a lot of ground in the field in an engaging way. The Secret Life of Pronouns (James Pennebaker) - This book expands on the research I reviewed inthe section on linguistic styles. Seemingly unimportant words like pronouns and conjunctions turn out to be reliable predictors of a range of social outcomes. -212-
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