ESV: Why the Controversy - University of Florida

ESV: Why the Controversy?
Everglades Case Studies

ACES 2012 Workshop
John Marshall, Angelique Giraud, James
O’Connell, Dr. Laila Recevskis, Dr. Leslie

Richardson, et al;

Workshop Agenda

• “Acronums” List
• Synthesis = summing over details?
• Purpose: Paradigm Shift to save the Planet
• Controversy Q&A: Audience Participation
• Controversy Q&A in the Literature/observations
• Two Everglades Case Studies by Summer Interns
• Assessment of ESV for the Central Everglades
• Conclusions
• References
• Panel Discussion Q&A

“ACRYNUM$”

• ACES = A Conference on Ecosystem Services
• ESV = Ecosystem Services Valuation
• CERP = Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan
• CEPP = Central Everglades Planning Project

– Geographic Misnomer – AKA Northern Everglades

• TSP = Tentatively Selected Plan for CEPP
• NRC = National Research Council
• CISRERP = NRC CERP/CEPP Peer Review Panel
• ROI = Return on Investment<=>Benefit:Cost;

• The Bottom Line is $B:$C

Numbers Challenge?

? Reduce Environmental
Decision-Support to a
one number synthesis ?
• B:C = ROI ?

This ACES Workshop Purpose

• Shift from ESV = Zero (0) to an ESV Paradigm
• Use CERP/CEPP as case study to follow
• Overcome the absurdity of controversy that

leaves ecosystems services to be valued at
zero by a market that is unsustainable
• ESV Education to Restore and Protect
planetary well-being in a sustainable manner

Audience Participation

• Ecosystem Services Valuation Q&A:

– Audience Fills in the blanks

• Controversy?

_____________________________________

• Results/Solution

_____________________________________

Major Controversy

• Hard for economists to put a value
on goods that are not valued by “the
Market”

• Result: Tragedy of the Commons
• Solution: Cap & Trade example

– Ozone Fix!
– Carbon Fix?

Major Controversy, Continued

• Economist K. Smith on Costanza Synthesis…
…Should not be used in any form… as
measures of natural resources to human
welfare…or yardsticks…or roadmap for future
research (no, and hell no)

• Alternative: None visible!
• Kuhn: Structure for a Scientific Resolution: To

reject one paradigm without simultaneously
substituting another is to reject science itself.

Positions impeding progress?

• NRC Peer Review in 2012 Biennial Report:

– It is also notable that the Ecosystem Services
summary paints a more optimistic picture of the
usefulness of this (ESV) tool than does the NRC
2010 Biennial report.

– In summary, there is no established formula for
the most effective approach to developing ESV
synthesis documents.

• Where is help in getting to the magic formula?

NRC Dichotomy?

• NRC CERP Peer Review 2012 Biennial Report:
We are not optimistic ESV can be done for
CERP/CEPP

• 2005 NRC ESV Study Major Point: If the
Ecosystem is not given a value, the default
value is ZERO (0)

• More Tragedy of Commons: Agriculture and
Development benefits out-compete ESV
benefits by treating ESV as zero $$$ value

NRC CISRERP Proclamation

• CERP lacks a systematic approach to analyze
the costs and benefits across multiple
projects… it is not clear how benefits can be
optimized.

• What is NRC CISRERP Calling for?

– A word search for benefits results in 68 hits
– A work search for synthesis results in 53 hits

REF: Everglades Restoration Progress; NRC
Fourth Biennial Review, 2012 (see page 34)

ESV: Why shift the paradigm?

• Planet is in Peril – Top Level Predator is in
Danger

• ESV needs to render ecosystems competitive
V. Development and Agriculture value

• White House recommends Feds go in this
direction: Sustaining Environmental Capital –
Protecting Society & the Economy.

• If we Save the Everglades, we get to keep the
Planet (Marjory Stoneman Douglas ~ 1981)

Synthesis Simplified

• CERP (Marshall Plan): Restore sheet flow to
max extent feasible from Kissimmee Basin to
FL Bay, i.e., Full Decompartmenalization.

• CEPP: Restore sheet flow from Lake O to rest
of Everglades and FL Bay via WCA-3,
Everglades National Park, concurrent with
meeting water quality standards/seepage mgt

• SYNTHESIS? What is projected increase of ESV
v. costs resulting from these DECOMP actions?

Pre-CERP/CEPP Geography

Marshall Plan Flow – 1981 USACE Plan 6 Flow - 1994

Plan 6 provides greatest eco-benefits;
but the benefits were not monitized!

Missing Link River of Grass Workshop

ESV of restoring ROG by 2010 Summer Interns

17

Central Everglades
Planning Project
Study Area

Storage, Treatment,
and Conveyance
in the EAA

LAKE St. Lucie Decompartmentalization
OKEECHOBEE Estuary and Sheetflow
Enhancement
EAA Atlantic
Ocean Seepage Management

WCA Operational Changes
1

Caloosahatchee BIG CYPRESS WCA
Estuary NATIONAL 2
PRESERVE
Gulf of WCA
Mexico 3A

3B CERP COMPONENTS

EVERGLADES Biscayne UNDER CONSIDERATION
NATIONAL Bay
PARK
CENTRAL EVERGLADES
Florida Bay
PLANNING PROJECT

RESTORING THE HEART OF THE EVERGLADES 18
CENTRAL EVERGLADES

CEPP: Events going on real time

• Five Final Alternatives going viral after Extensive
Screening based on Modeling and Discussion

• USACE Taking the Five Alternatives to Public
Meetings beginning Dec 10.

• Next (January?): Habitat Unit Assessment (HUA)
will be used in downsizing 5 alternatives to
Tenatively Selected Plan (TSP)

• Next #2, Date TBD: ESV of TSP

– For latest info, see:
http://www.sfrestore.org/cepp/cepp.html

L-28 WCA ALTERNATIVE 1
L-30 1
STORAGE AND TREATMENT
L-33S-8
WCA  A-2 FEB integrated with State Remedies FEB on A-1
2
DISTRIBUTION/CONVEYANCE
I-75
 HRF: Spreader canal ~ 3 miles east & west of S-8
WCA  Backfill Miami Canal from S-8 to I-75
3A  L-28 Triangle – gap levee

WCA DISTRIBUTION/CONVEYANCE
3B
 Increase S-333 capacity to 3000 cfs
 One 750 cfs gated structure in L-67 A
 One 6000-ft gaps in L-67C levee
 Tamiami Trail western 2.6 mile and eastern 1 mile bridge
 L-29 canal max stage at 9.7

SEEPAGE MANAGEMENT

 Increase S-356 to 1000 cfs
 Two 250 cfs pumps on L-31N to return seepage
 G-211 flood control operations, if needed
 Utilize coastal canals to convey seepage

FEB Pump Gated Structure Levee Removal

Canal Operational Backfill

20

RESTORING THE HEART OF THE EVERGLADES CENTRAL EVERGLADES

Everglades Case Studies

• Workshop Introduction (30 minutes)
• 2010 ESV of a Restored River of Grass (30)

– Angelique Giraud, UCF, 2010 ARM Summer Intern

• 2012 ESV of a Restored Everglades (30)

– James O’Connell, UF, 2012 ARM Summer Intern

• Assessment of ESV for Central Everglades (45)

– Dr. Laila Racevskis,UF; Dr. Leslie Richardson, USGS

• Brief Q&A After Each Presentation
• Panel Discussion/Q&A (45)

A Few Good Conclusions

• Costanza Synthesis: sums over details

– Is a useable demonstration of a synthesis

• Use of the Costanza Synthesis provides
quicker, better, cheaper approach to ESV

• Can be done better by detailed approach to
local ecosystem; forget quicker & cheaper!

• In analysis of alternatives, relative ESV of
alternatives is better than other approaches.

More Conclusions

• Ecosystem services value of the planetary
biomes are not zero.

• ESV benefits tend to be large, relative to cost
of restoring or replacing natural functions.

– Think Benefits:Costs >> 6:1

• It is our job to calculate the benefits as well as
the costs, to provide ROI for decision support

• If we calculate the benefits of CERP/CEPP we
may yet get to keep the planet!

PRIMARY REFERENCES

• Costanza, et al, Report on value of the planet’s
18 biomes; Google Nature 387; see

– http://www.uvm.edu/giee/publications/Nature_Paper.pdf

• Valuing Ecosystem Services – Towards Better
Environmental Decision-making, NRC 2005;

– See http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11139

• PCAST Report: Sustaining Environmental Capital, Protecting
Society and the Economy; See

– http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/pcast_
sustaining_environmental_capital_report.pdf

• Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades Fourth Biennial
Review, 2012; See

– https://download.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13422

More References

• The Structure of Scientific Revolutions; T.S.
Kuhn; 1970

• Perspectives on Biodiversity – Valuing its Role
in an Everchanging World; NRC 1999

• See Education of Public Example at:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/opinion/letters/return-on-saving-
everglades-90-billion-883668.html?cxtype=ynews_rss

• For additional info, Contact
[email protected]