UKRAINE WAR – the bigger picture Update 22/02/24, nr. 1 After checking my sources (see listed at the bottom) I have decided to summarize my findings. Please feel free to comment for improvement. • The National Security Archives in Washington found declassified documents (not a treaty) showing that in 1990 and 1991 it was promised (by James Baker, Helmut Kohl) to the former Soviet leaders that NATO would not expand (not even an inch) to the east. • Untill 2008, in spite of earlier promises made by US and Germany, many former Warschau pact states decided to join Nato. • In 2008 during the Bucharest summit Georgia and Ukraine were invited to join as well, but Putin made it clear that this would be a red line. Many countries understood this because a) Russia was allowed to have its military naval fleet in Crimea, b) In Ukraine lived many Russians and people that speak Russian. Despite this red line drawn by Putin, Nato said Ukrain would become a member sooner or later. It is even mentioned on Natos website. • In 2013 Ukrain was neutral and had a president Yanukovych who followed a dual policy towards the EU and Russia. Several non governemental organisations (ngo) were founded in Ukrain funded by the US/EU. Fromout these ngo’s protests have been stimulated against president Yanukovych. • Beginning 2014 these protests escalated in Kiev and even people were shot by snipers on the square in Kiev (some claim it was CIA). Yanukovych government was overthrown and followed up by a pro west president called Poroschenko. • Poroschenko made it clear that Ukrain should be part of the EU and Nato. He started to push ukranian language in entire Ukrain instead of Russian for example. His policy was pro west. • Russia understood well what kind of game was being played here and started to occupy Crimea, in order to protect its interests (Naval fleet in Crimea, 90 percent Russians living there). • At the same time tensions rose in the Donbas in the south east where Russian speaking ukranians lived. Tensions between
ukranians and Russian speaking ukranians. A military war started in the Donbas. • During 2017 – 2021 the west was actively involved in weapon deliveries to Ukrain to help the pro west ukranians in the Donbas region. • In 2021 the western Ukranians were forming a bigger army in the south east in order to deal with the resistance in this area. This was perceived as a further threat by the Russians. • February 2022 the Russians invaded Ukrain in the South east and also direction Kiev. The west immediately insulted Russia of starting a war against Ukrain and formed a coalition with its allies in Europe. • Russia initiated this war with aprox 190.000 soldiers max. according to Mearscheimer, enough to invade the Donbas and temporary Kiev to overthrow a government. But not enough to occupy entire Ukraine. • In March/April 2022 a peace agreement was prepared between Ukraine Zelensky and Russia via mediators in Turkey. Peace could have been agreed once Ukrain would stay neutral, and actually Zelensky initially seems to have agreed. However fromout the west a peacedeal was blown up. Partly because it saw Russias weakness on the field, secondly because it wanted to defeat Russia and show its strength to China. • The war continued and the west has made it clear that it wants to beat Russia on the battlefield. Sources 1. Prof. Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia university NY 2. Prof. Mearsheimer, Prof. Chigago university 3. National Security Archives, Washington 4. CATO Institute About the author Arend Jan Pannen used to work as a business analyst for many years and is interested in geo politics since he was young. Since I felt that I was informed wrong about the war, I started to analyse the facts, also in order to inform others about what I perceive as the truth.