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Caribbean Conference on Comprehensive Disaster Management: The Road to Resilience

Assessing the Vulnerability of Tourism-related
Livelihoods to Tropical Cyclones in Small Island
Developing States : a comparison of Tobago and

Jamaica

Presenter : Thalia Balkaran
PhD Candidate

Institute of Sustainable Development
The University of the West Indies, Mona Campus

Tuesday, 1st December 2015

Background- Disasters

•1980 -2011 -$ 3.5 trillion US dollars in losses attributable to disasters worldwide

•lower income countries -48 % of deaths despite experiencing only 9 % of total
disaster events. Munich Re (2012)

•Disasters have the potential to severely affect economic activity within small island
states. Of concern in small island states where economy may be dependent on one or
two sectors

•Hurricane Ivan 2004- led to 595 million US dollars in Jamaica (direct damage and
indirect losses)
47 % of hotel infrastructure island wide being damaged by the passage of waves
associated with the event (ECLAC at al.,2004)

Research Aim and Objectives

The aim of this study is to assess the vulnerability of tourism livelihoods in
two Small Island Developing States (SIDS) to tropical cyclones.

The main objectives are:
1. To identify the socio-economic and environmental factors that contribute

to vulnerability to tropical cyclones within tourism livelihoods in selected
sites in Jamaica and Tobago

2. To develop an instrument to measure the vulnerability of tourism
livelihoods within Small Island Developing States and test its applicability
across varying Caribbean tourism resorts

3. To assess varying levels of vulnerability within different groups of
livelihoods within the tourism industry across sites

4. To differentiate the vulnerability of tourism livelihoods based on gender

Concept of Vulnerability

•The characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that
make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard.
Vulnerability varies significantly within a community and over time. ( UNISDR
2009)

•The concept of vulnerability -powerful analytical tool for describing states of
susceptibility to harm( Adger 2006)

•increasing amount of research on vulnerability within the past thirty years and
the term has been applied to a wide range of fields with disaster management
being one field of study synonymous with the term

Vulnerability Research

.“human ecologist school” .“structural paradigm” which
which places emphasis on focuses on socioeconomic and
human adjustments to reduce political structures that are held
the negative impact of hazards responsible for increased losses

Type of Vulnerability Vulnerability
Physical Vulnerability
Social Vulnerability Characteristics
Economic Vulnerability
Environmental Vulnerability •exposure of the population to a potential hazard.

•living in harm’s way, such as in a flood plain or seismically
active area
•aspects such as population growth, the existence of conflicts
and insecurity
•access to social safety nets or the capacity of a population to
cope with disasters-a factor usually referred to as its resiliency
Is linked to the population’s or country’s dependence on
agriculture, the diversification of its economy, the availability of
insurance or loans, its financial assets or debts, as well as its
access to basic infrastructure such as water, electricity,
communication networks and health care.
Includes such factors as soil degradation and erosion
,deforestation, chemical or biological pollution and the
availability of water whether for drinking, irrigation or other
uses

Source : Guha-Sapir, 2004

Livelihoods

• A livelihood comprises the capabilities, assets
( including both material and social resources)
and activities required for a means of living.

(Chambers and Gordon,1992).

• A livelihood is sustainable when it can cope
with and recover from stresses and shocks and
maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets
both now and in the future, while not
undermining the natural resource base. Scoones(1998)

Sustainable Livelihoods Framework

Source : DFID 1999

Jamaica Tobago
Moderate Hurricane Risk ( 5-10% annual
chance . ( Pielke et al. 2003) Smaller risk of Hurricane Impact ( 1-5 %)
Well developed, extensive tourism sector ( Pielke et al. 2003)

Visitor Arrivals 2014- 2,080,181 Coomansingh (2004) describes tourism in the
twin island state as being in an embryonic
state as compared to other Caribbean islands
like Jamaica.

International Passenger Arrivals 2014
32, 904
Domestic ( Boat) – 469,998
Domestic ( Plane) – 463,667

•GDP Tourism –total contribution of 25.6 % GDP - 36.9% Tobago’s economic activity ( WTTC
G.D.P ( WTTC 2014)
2009)
Economy- High dependence on services-tourism, remittances, Economy- Trinidad and Tobago-heavy dependence on energy sector
bauxite/alumina
Strong U.K and European Market and Domestic
Strong North American Market Market

Jamaica – Study Sites

Tourism in Negril

• Negril– Seven Mile beach, coral reefs, Booby Cay Island
• Range of Activities
• entertainment, restaurants, sunset cruises, boat tours, water

sports
• Negril- Originally fishing community; dramatic change from a small,

fishing village to a sprawling tourist resort

• Negril- 411,445 stop over arrivals for 2014 (19.8% of arrivals to
island 3rd highest after Montego Bay and Ocho Rios) ( JTB 2014)

• All-inclusive concept

Tracks showing tropical storm activity within 100
nautical miles of Jamaica from the period 2003-2012

Source : NOAA 2014

Tropical Storms that have had a strong impact on the Jamaican economy

Tropical Cyclone Year Total Impact ( US Dollars)

Hurricane Ivan 2004 595 million
Hurricanes Dennis and Emily 2005 96.87 million
Hurricane Dean 2007 329.34 million
Tropical Storm Gustav 2008 213.99 million
Tropical Storm Nicole 2010 239.6 million
Hurricane Sandy 2012 107.14 million

Source : PIOJ Various Years

Tropical Cyclones- damage infrastructure, equipment, cause cancellations of trips ,
disruption and damage to natural assets ( e.g. beaches) that many local livelihoods are
dependent on

Map of Tobago showing study sites

Tobago

• Tourism
47.6% of Jobs in Tobago
14,000 employed in tourism-related establishments (WTTC 2009)

• Tourism is a main driver of the Tobago economy

• Governing Body- Tobago House of Assembly

• Estimated that 70 % of population employed by THA

• Accommodation Sector -Small, independent non-branded hotels,
Apartments & Condos, Bed & Breakfast, Villas . All-inclusive Hotels
not large part of tourism industry

Tropical Cyclones and Tobago

Name Year Deaths Estimated Cost

Hurricane Flora 1963 18 USD$ 30 MILLION
Hurricane Alma 1974 2 N/A
Hurricane Ivan 2004 1 TTD 18 MILLION
November 2004 2004 2 N/A
Severe Weather

Other notable Events : Hurricane Tomas 2010, Hurricane Emily 2005 – Landslides, Flooding
Source : TEMA 2015

Crown Point

• Located in South West
Tobago

• Airport Located within Crown
Point, 15 minutes from
Scarborough( Port facilities)

• Attraction : Sun, sea and
sand. Night life, casinos.
Buccoo Reef Marine Park-
Coral Gardens,Nylon Pool

Speyside

•Popular Ecotourism Destination- Bird Watching,
Tours, Diving
•Bird of Paradise Island /Little Tobago, Goat Island
•Rainforest Tours ( Main Ride Forest Reserve,
proclaimed since 1776,)
•Sand, sea and Sun tourism
•History of Landslides

Picture courtesy of Sean Robinson, Speciality Dive

Methodology

Mixed Methods Research –qualitative and quantitative approaches
Provides expanded understanding of research problem

Sequential Exploratory Design
1. Qualitative Data collected first to explore topic
2. Quantitative - Second phase, data collected from a sample of persons representative of the
population
3.Useful approach when developing an instrument – Livelihood Vulnerability Index -Tourism

QUAL. QUAL. Quan. Quan. Interpretation
Data Data Data Data of Entire
Collection Analysis Collection Analysis Analysis

Source : Creswell at al.2003

Methodology

Phase 1 Qualitative - Semi-Structured interviews with persons whose

livelihoods are directly dependent on tourism and key informants. Purposive or
Judgmental Sampling and Snowballing

Qualitative
Fieldwork

Tourism Livelihood Vulnerability Index

Socio-Demographics Livelihoods

Health Social Networks

Water Security Natural Disasters and Beach Erosion

Tourism Dynamics Financial Security

Phase 2 : Quantitative Interviews. Accommodation, Craft, Water Sports/ Tours

Tourism Livelihoods Vulnerability Index (TLVI)

• Tourism and Disasters- growing field of research, numerous authors examining range of
natural hazards

• Few studies have documented the vulnerability of SIDS to natural disasters.

• Limited studies looking at the vulnerability of livelihoods to external shocks.Studies (Etwire
et al., 2013, Shah et al, 2013) - Agricultural, largely quantitative

• New Contribution to Literature- tourism Livelihood Vulnerability ( Qual.+Quan.)

• Provides understanding of factors increasing Vulnerability. Identification of factors essential
for reducing the impact of natural disasters on vulnerable persons, their livelihoods and
assets.

• This knowledge can reduce the risk of stakeholders and put in place appropriate strategies to
ensure sustainability

RESULTS- Negril

Factors that increase the Vulnerability of Livelihoods in Negril to Tropical
Cyclones

Seasonality of Coastal Location. Ecosystem and
Tourism – Environmental Degradation-
extension of slow Vulnerability e.g. Beach Erosion
season in Negril
Corals ,
Financial Overfishing
difficulties Pollution
-lack of profits Improper Sewage
-difficulty of Disposal
accessing loans, Loss of Coastal Vegetation
-insurance Degradation to Wetland (
Negril Morass )

Competition Migration

e.g. Between vendors,
All-inclusive Hotels

Results- Tobago

• Transport into the island – Ferry, Plane. particularly in peak season
• Decrease in Tourism Profits- less international tourists; tourists spend less
• Large Domestic Market- Stakeholders mention Trinidadian Market as an important source of

Tourism Income- Weekends, Easter, Summer
• Service Problem
• Water Problems – Particularly in Dry Season

Seaweed in Speyside

Results - Tourism Livelihood Vulnerability Score-

Water Component Socio-Demographic Component Livelihood Component Negril
Financial Component 0.8 Health Component Crown Point
0.7 Speyside
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

Natural Disaster Component Tourism Component Social Component

0- Least Vulnerable Negril = 0.42 Crown Point=0.29
1 – More Vulnerable Speyside= 0.26

Livelihood Vulnerability Score - Negril

Accommodation= 0.35 ( less Socio-Demographic 0- Less Vulnerable
vulnerable) 1– More Vulnerable
Craft= 0.45 0.9
Water Sports/tours = 0.45 0.8 Livelihood
0.7
Water 0.6 Accommodation
0.5 Craft
Financial 0.4 Tours/ Water Sports
0.3
0.2 Health
0.1

0

Natural Disaster Social

Tourism Dynamics

one way Anova- Score for Accommodation significantly different from Craft and Water Sports/Tours

Livelihood Vulnerability Scores
Crown Point

Water Component Socio-Demographic Component Livelihood Component Accommodation
Financial Component 0.9 Health Component Craft
0.8 Tours/ Water Sports
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

Accommodation- 0. 304

Natural Disaster Component Social Component Craft - 0.328

Water Sports 0.321

Tourism Component

one way Anova- no significant difference in vulnerability scores for groups

Livelihood Vulnerability Scores
Speyside

Water Component Socio-Demographic Livelihood Component Accommodation
Financial Component Component Health Component Craft
0.9 Tours/ Water Sports
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

Natural Disaster Component Social Component

Accommodation- 0. 276875

Tourism Component Craft - 0.3375

Water Sports 0.240583

One way Anova - Significant difference between craft and water sports

Livelihood Vulnerability Score- NEGRIL Gender

Male : 0.39 Socio-Demographic 0- Less Vulnerable
Female : 0.42 1 – More Vulnerable
0.9
Water 0.8 Livelihood
0.7
Financial 0.6 Health Male
0.5 Female
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1

0

Natural Disaster Social

Tourism Dynamics

Independent Samples T-Test – no significant difference in scores for males and females

Gender- Crown Point

Male : 0.298 Socio-Demographic Livelihood Component Male
Female : 0.292 Component Health Component Female

Water Component 0.9
0.8
Financial Component 0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1

0

Natural Disaster Component Social Component

Tourism Component

Independent Samples T-Test – no significant difference in scores for males and females

Gender- Speyside

Male : 0.25 Socio-Demographic Component Livelihood Component Male
Female : 0.29 0.9 Health Component Female
0.8
Water Component 0.7
0.6
Financial Component 0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

Natural Disaster Component Social Component

Tourism Component

Independent Samples T-Test – no significant difference in scores for males and females

Importance of work

• Generating new knowledge for resilience
- Examination of factors as it related to
vulnerability- Tropical cyclones, tourism. “ Grass
Roots approach – true understanding of challenges being faced , what

improvements are required.

• One of outputs of research is to make
recommendations for policy and practice at
different levels- individual, community, tourism sector, government