Midwest/Great Plains Climate- Drought Outlook

Date of First Killin

http://mrcc.isws.il

ng Freeze (28ºF)

llinois.edu/cliwatch/

Soil temperatures

http://mrcc.isws.il

llinois.edu/cliwatch/

Soil Mo

Recent
precipitation has
brought soil
moisture to above
normal levels across
central and
southern sections
of the Midwest.

Soils in eastern Soil Moisture Ano
sections of the
region remain drier
than normal.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.g

oisture

omaly in millimeters

gov/mmb/nldas/drought/

Crop Progress and C

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Crop_P

Condition: W. Wheat

Progress_&_Condition/2016/US_2016.pdf

Outlo

ooks

Outlo

∗ ENSO
∗ 7-day precipitation forecas
∗ 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks
∗ Monthly and Seasonal Out
∗ Extended Seasonal Outloo
∗ Seasonal Drought Outlook

ooks

st
s
tlooks (January - March)
oks
ks

ENSO Co

Sea Surface Temperatures

onditions

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

ENSO Co

Sea Surface Tempe

onditions

erature Anomalies

ENSO O

Outlook

7-day Quantitative Pr

Valid: 7 AM Thu 17 Dec–

http://www.wpc.ncep.no

recipitation Forecast

– 7 AM Thu 24 Dec 2015

oaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

Temperature and Pr
22 – 26 D

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/prod

recipitation Outlook
Dec. 2015

ducts/predictions/610day/index.php

Temperature and Pr
24 – 30 D

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/prod

recipitation Outlook
Dec. 2015

ducts/predictions/814day/index.php

Temperature and Pr

Januar

Temperature

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/p

recipitation Outlook

ry 2016

Precipitation

products/predictions/30day/

Temperature and Pr

January-M

Temperature

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/p

recipitation Outlook

March 2016

Precipitation

products/predictions/90day/

Drought
19 Nov. -

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/

Outlook
- 29 Feb.

/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif/

Seasonal Tempe

February 2016

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prediction

erature Outlooks

6 - March 2017

ns/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/t.gif

Seasonal Precip

February 2016

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prediction

pitation Outlooks

6 - March 2017

ns/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/p.gif

Summ

∗ Abnormally mild temperatures ha
much of the past 3 months.

∗ An active subtropical jet stream h
through the Midwest since Octob
totals over much of the region. Ea
drier than normal.

∗ The current El Nino event is likely
projected return to neutral condit
La Nina conditions by winter of 20

∗ The El Nino event will likely lead t
temperatures and ultimately to d
the remainder of the winter and s

∗ Collectively, the outlooks suggest
2016 growing season. The threat
this winter should remain lower t
incursions of Arctic-origin air mas

mary

ave persisted across the region for
has resulted in an active storm track
ber, with above normal precipitation
astern sections of the region remained
y at or near peak strength, with a
tions by summer 2016 and possibly to
016.
to a continuation of milder than normal
drier than normal weather for much of
spring of 2016.
t an earlier than normal start to the
of cold injury to overwintering crops
than normal given no sudden or severe
sses into the region.

Further Informa

∗ Today’s and Past Recorded Presen

∗ http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/webinars.h
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu

• NOAA’s National Centers for Envir
www.ncdc.noaa.gov

 Monthly climate reports (U.S.
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center:

• Climate Portal: www.climate.gov

• U.S. Drought Portal: www.drought

• National Drought Mitigation Cente
• State climatologists

∗ http://www.stateclimate.org

• Regional climate centers

∗ http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu
∗ http://www.hprcc.unl.edu

ation - Partners

ntations and :

htm

ronmental Information:

& Global):

: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

t.gov
er: http://drought.unl.edu/

Thank You an

∗ Questions:

∗ Climate:
∗ Jeff Andresen: andresen@
∗ Doug Kluck: doug.kluck@
∗ John Eise: john.eise@noaa
∗ Mike Timlin: mtimlin@illin
∗ Natalie Umphlett: numphl
∗ Brian Fuchs: bfuchs2@un

∗ Weather:
∗ [email protected]

nd Questions?

@msu.edu , 517-432-4756
@noaa.gov, 816-994-3008

a.gov, 816-268-3144
nois.edu; 217-333-8506
[email protected] ; 402 472-6764
nl.edu 402 472-6775