The AXiS CCXV (215)

#Issue : CCXV fifffflffiflGold ETF LaunchFirst Mutual Headlines ItUniversal Health Coverage CountdownCotton Season OpensEbola Threat ReturnsDrought Pressure Builds..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

In Focus04050708MarketsWorld NewsZSE & VFEX Weekly Markets Dashboard24252627111214Universal Health Coverage Nears : June Deadline Raises QuestionsDrought Fears Return : Zim’s Recovery Faces Early StressEbola Fears Intensify : Regional Health Risks GrowEconomic News and AnalysisZimbabwe's Gold ETF : What the Market Should Expect and What History Has Already TaughtCotton Trading Starts : Targets Remain Under PressureEarnings Season Review : Stability Dividend and Unfilled GapsA Defining Moment : Harare Taps Global FinanceBusiness Around the WorldPolitics Around the WorldRegional Economic Watch212228Theequityaxis.net @equity axis @equity axis zimbabwe @equity axis @equity axis @equity axis 08677 197 791 @ aaronc[at]equityaxis.netEQUITY AXISFinancial Insights at your FingertipsCapital Markets 16171819Delta Eyes Demand Surge : Zimbabwe Drinks MoreDairibord Unlocks Value : Chipinge Steri Plant Impact Afdis Expands Into Scale : Consumer Demand AcceleratesCAFCA HY2026 Rebound : Margins and Capex RiseWeekly Commodity PulseMarkets WatchZSE & VFEX WeeklyFinancial Markets At a GlanceThe AXiS CCXIV May 2026Cover PagePage 08Page 18Page 16ZSE ASI VFEX ASI ZWG INTERBANK RATE 08/0511/0512/0513/0514/0515/0508/0511/0512/0513/0514/0515/0508/0511/0512/0513/0514/0515/05375.15 226.80 25.76376.27 230.75 25.84376.43 233.62 25.76374.00 222.30 25.77381.13 224.87 25.84384.84 223.35 25.812.58% -1.52% -0.21%ZSE TOP 10 INDEX MEDIUM CAP INDEX SMALL CAP INDEX 100.11100.11100.11100.11100.11100.110.00%372.63 412.22374.38 410.60373.33 416.09370.60 414.86379.49 414.58381.44 426.2308/0511/0512/0513/0514/0515/052.36% 08/0511/0512/0513/0514/0515/053.40% 08/0511/0512/0513/0514/0515/05

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hen First Mutual Wealth listed the FMW Gold ETF on the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange last week, it added a category of instrument that Zimba- bwe's capital markets have not previously hosted: a passively managed, USD-denominat- ed exchange-traded fund offering retail and institutional investors direct offshore gold expo- sure through a single security. The fund opened trading with a low of US$0.135 per unit and closed its first week at US$0.15, opening the following Monday at US$0.1543, with daily average volumes running at approximately 1,000 shares. For a debut week on the VFEX, that combination of price discovery, directional upward movement, and sustained transaction activity is more instructive than the raw numbers suggest and the gold macro environment into which the product has launched is among the most supportive in a generation.FMW is the asset management subsidiary of First Mutual Holdings. The fund targets an initial net asset value of US$10 million, with 100 million units available at an initial NAV of US$10,000,000. The underlying portfolio allo- cates 50% to the 1nvest Gold ETF, which is a JSE-listed gold commodity fund with physical gold reserves stored in South Africa and the United Kingdom, and 12.5% each to Gold Fields Limited, AngloGold Ashanti, Harmony Gold Mining, and DRDGOLD Limited. All five underly- ing securities are primarily listed on the JSE. Its structure is straightforward. A Zimbabwean investor buys a VFEX-listed unit and gains proportional economic exposure to JSE-traded gold instruments, denominated in USD, without managing foreign exchange approval process- es, custodian relationships, or JSE trading ccounts directly.The mechanics of the FMW Gold ETF contain three features that differentiate it from both Zim- babwe's existing ETF universe and most of the REIT instruments that preceded it on the VFEX and ZSE. The first is the offshore asset anchor. All underlying securities sit outside Zimbabwe's regulatory environment, which means the fund's NAV is insulated from ZiG depreciation, domestic monetary conditions, and local corporate governance risk. The second is the hybrid struc- ture: 50% in a physical gold commodity ETF and 50% in gold mining equities. It is not a pure gold price tracker. The commodity component tracks the metal's price directly, while the equity component introduces leverage to gold price movements through mining company earnings, capital allocation decisions, and operational performance. In a rising gold price environment, mining equities historically amplify the commod- ity's return, which is the source of the ETF's structurally higher potential upside relative to a pure commodity product. The third differentiat- ing feature is cost. The all-in annual fee struc- ture amounts to 0.67% for management, custo- dy, trustee, and transfer secretary combined, with creation and redemption fees of US$5 per transaction. The round-trip trading cost on the VFEX at 2.13% compares to 4.14% on the ZSE, giving the FMW Gold ETF a structural cost advantage for active traders over domestic-list- ed instruments.Zimbabwe's REIT experience is the closest comparable template for understanding how alternative-asset collective investment schemes perform from listing through maturity in this market. The sector launched with Tigere REIT in 2022, followed by Revitus in 2023, Eagle REIT on the VFEX in mid-2025, and Pfuma Fund REIT on the VFEX in February 2026. About 11 REITs have been registered since 2021, indicat- ing strong structural interest in the asset class, with Tigere raising between US$8 million and US$10 million at IPO and subsequently breach- ing US$100 million in market capitalisation. Zimbabwe's REIT market capitalisation surged 160.74% to ZWG4.25 billion by December 2025, with Tigere's investment property value rising 75.6% to US$58.41 million following two strategic acquisitions in Q4 2025. Tigere's performance has been powered by three con- sistent operational factors: a 97% average occupancy rate, quarterly USD dividend distri- butions now in their twelfth consecutive quarter, and distributable income per unit rising 23.2% to US$0.197 cents, with dividend per unit climbing 28.2% to US$0.228 cents for full year 2025. Revitus, which concentrates properties in the Central Business District, has struggled with occupancy rates below 60% due to the migra- tion of businesses to suburban areas, making it the contrasting case study in the same sector: strong structural thesis, wrong asset selection.The REIT experience delivers three transfer- able lessons for FMW Gold ETF investors. First, the quality and liquidity of the underlying asset determines everything. Tigere's retail-grade suburban properties with anchor tenants and proven footfall are categorically different from Revitus's legacy CBD offices. The FMW Gold ETF's underlying is JSE-listed, globally liquid, and physically backed at the commodity layer. The quality test is passed before day one. Second, early trading volume does not sustain itself without consistent performance signals. Tigere built its liquidity over several quarters of dividend distributions and NAV growth. The FMW Gold ETF will build its secondary market depth over gold price performance and regular NAV publication. Third, the earlier Old Mutual Top 10 ETF was delisted in January 2024, with migration of blue-chip stocks to the VFEX, thin trading volumes, and tracking errors cited as the principal reasons for its closure, which is the cautionary precedent the FMW Gold ETF struc- ture is designed to avoid through offshore asset anchoring and an active market-making arrangement.The case for gold as the underlying asset has rarely been stronger. Gold surged past US$5,600 per ounce for the first time in history at the start of 2026 and has gained approxi- mately 60% across 2025, doubling its value in two years. J.P. Morgan Global Research fore- casts prices pushing toward US$5,000 per ounce by Q4 2026, with central bank and inves- tor demand averaging 585 tonnes per quarter. Gold surpassed the share of US Treasuries in central bank reserves for the first time since 1996, while ETFs backed by gold continue post- ing record inflows. The structural drivers are accumulating rather than reversing. Central banks across emerging markets are accelerat- ing diversification away from dollar-denominat- ed reserves into physical gold. Geopolitical frag- mentation, US fiscal deficit expansion, and sus- tained dollar credibility concerns are functioning as permanent demand catalysts rather than temporary shocks. Gold mining equities remain in catch-up mode, with the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index delivering strong gains but still underperforming the metal, and equity ana- lysts now publishing gold price forecasts that assume sustained elevated prices through 2028 and 2029, which should translate into a re-rating of gold mining equities. This is directly relevant to the FMW Gold ETF's equity component. AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields, Harmony, and DRDGOLD are all positioned to benefit from the miner re-rating thesis as the market shifts from valuing them on lagging gold price assumptions to forward-looking ones.The simulated historical returns embedded in the prospectus provide the quantitative frame- work for understanding what the product could deliver over a full cycle. The five-year simulated Zimbabwe's Gold ETF*To Page 5The AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 4What the Market Should Expect & What History Has Already TaughtTZ W

USD return stands at 267.6%, with a com- pound annual growth rate of 31.5%. The three-year USD return is 278.7%, with a CAGR of 32.1%. The last twelve months produced a 93.3% USD return. These figures are simulated on the basis of the underlying securities' actual historical performance and are presented to illustrate the portfolio's return characteristics rather than as a guarantee of future perfor- mance. The ZAR returns over the same periods are higher in nominal terms, which arises from ZAR depreciation against the USD amplifying local currency gains: 301.9% over five years, 293.9% over three years, and 104.5% over the last twelve months. For a Zimbabwean investor benchmarking returns against ZWG-denominat- ed assets, the comparison is even more favour- able given ZWG's historical depreciation trajec- tory.What could go right is the mirror of the macro framework already in motion. Analysts have described the current gold environment as a \"Category 5 hurricane in 2026,\" with institutional sentiment remaining aggressively bullish even as the market navigates volatility from Middle East geopolitical tensions. A sustained gold price push through US$5,000 per ounce would lift the commodity component of the ETF directly and trigger the miner re-rating dynamic that would amplify returns through the equity alloca- tion. Mining company margin expansion from higher gold prices with relatively stable operat- ing costs would compound into earnings upgrades, dividend growth, and share price appreciation across all four JSE-listed miner constituents. The quarterly rebalancing mecha- nism keeps the portfolio anchored at strategic weights, preventing excessive drift toward whichever component outperforms in any given period.What could go wrong is equally defined. A suc- cessful outcome from Trump administration poli- cies that accelerated economic growth and reduced geopolitical risk would lead to higher US rates and a stronger dollar, pushing gold lower through a 5% to 20% correction from current levels, with gold ETF holdings seeing sustained outflows as investors rotate into equi- ties and higher-yielding assets. The equity com- ponent introduces a second risk layer that the commodity component does not carry: mining company-specific operational risk, cost inflation from oil price increases, and capital allocation decisions by management teams that may not align with gold price appreciation. Oil price exposure is a structural vulnerability for open-pit miners, since fuel accounts for a significant share of production costs and a strong oil price cuts into margins even when gold prices are performing well. Tracking error is the third risk category, which arises from information lags, different trading costs, taxes, and investor senti- ment producing a market price that diverges from NAV. The market maker arrangement through Akribos Securities is the primary mech- anism for managing tracking error, and its effec- tiveness will become visible over the first three to six months of trading.Investors approaching the FMW Gold ETF as a portfolio instrument should take into account that the risk-reward structure is cleaner than most domestically available alternatives. A Zim- babwean investor holding ZWG-denominated equities or ZWG fixed income carries currency depreciation risk and domestic corporate gover- nance risk simultaneously. The FMW Gold ETF eliminates both through its offshore asset anchoring and USD denomination. Pension funds operating under IPEC guidelines that require diversification across asset classes now have a VFEX-listed instrument that provides gold exposure without requiring direct JSE market access. Retail investors who would previously have had no practical route to gold investment other than physical metal now have a liquid, regulated, low-cost alternative. The opening week trading data, with a low of US$0.135 and a close of US$0.15 representing an 11.1% gain from the intraday trough, and sustained daily volumes averaging 1,000 shares, points to genuine price discovery and not just institutional block placement. That is the early signal that secondary market liquidity is beginning to form organically.The FMW Gold ETF is not simply a product innovation. It is the capital markets system doing what it is designed to do: translating a global macro opportunity into an accessible, regulated, locally available instrument. Zimba- bwe has spent the last three years building the monetary architecture for stability, and the VFEX has spent the same period building the infrastructure for USD-denominated market activity. The FMW Gold ETF is the first product that connects all three elements simultaneously: a stabilising domestic monetary environment, a functional hard-currency exchange, and the most structurally supported commodity in the current global cycle. What investors should watch in the months ahead is NAV performance against gold spot, secondary market spread tightening as volumes build, and the first quar- terly rebalancing, which will be the earliest oper- ational test of the manager's stated methodolo- gy. The product has launched into the right envi- ronment at the right moment. The work now is to stay there.*From Page 4The AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 5CA*To Page 6imbabwe’s 2026 cotton marketing season has opened against the back- drop of improving production figures, expanded hectarage, and renewed efforts to stabilise one of the country’s most historically important cash crop sectors. The official launch by the Agricultural Marketing Authority reflects growing optimism that cotton may finally be emerging from years of decline marked by drought, side marketing, weak profitability, and financing challenges. The season, which runs from May 18 to July 31, arrives at a critical time for the agricultural economy. Cotton remains strategically important for rural incomes, employment creation, textile manufacturing, and export generation, particularly in semi-arid regions where alternative cash crops are limit- ed. Areas such as Gokwe, Muzarabani, Sanyati, Chiredzi, and parts of Mashonaland Central continue to rely heavily on cotton production as a source of household income and economic activity.This year’s season is opening with signs of recovery after a prolonged period of volatility. According to the latest AMA validation report, seed cotton production increased by 33 percent from 29,000 tonnes during the previous season to 38,500 tonnes in the 2025/26 agricultural cycle. The recovery follows one of the most unstable production periods in Zimbabwe’s cotton history.National production data over the last six sea- sons reveals the extent of that instability. Zimba- bwe produced 74,000 tonnes of cotton in 2020 before output surged to 116,052 tonnes in 2021 following favourable rainfall conditions and stronger farmer participation. Production then fell sharply to 54,262 tonnes in 2022 before recovering to 89,600 tonnes in 2023.The most dramatic collapse came in 2024 when national output plunged to only 13,757 tonnes. The decline reflected the devastating effects of the El Niño-induced drought, rising production costs, weak financing capacity among contrac- tors, and reduced farmer viability. Output partially recovered to 28,900 tonnes in 2025 before rising further to the current estimate of 38,500 tonnes for 2026.The figures highlight how exposed Zimbabwe’s cotton industry remains to climatic conditions and structural financing constraints. Unlike tobacco, which has experienced sustained long-term expansion supported by stronger foreign currency earnings and contract financ- ing systems, cotton production has struggled to maintain stability. Most cotton farmers operate in drought-prone communal areas where irriga- tion infrastructure remains limited and produc- tivity depends heavily on seasonal rainfall performance.Cotton Trading StartsTargets Remain Under PressureZ

FThe AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 6The latest Crop, Livestock and Fisheries Assessment Report 2 indicates that the current recovery was largely driven by increased plant- ed area. Cotton hectarage expanded from 122,493 hectares during the 2024/25 season to 154,938 hectares in 2025/26. That represents an increase of 32,445 hectares or approximate- ly 26 percent.The rise in hectarage is economically significant because planting decisions are made months before marketing begins. Cotton planting in Zimbabwe usually occurs between November and January following the onset of the rainy season. Farmers therefore increased planting area despite uncertainty surrounding future prices and profitability. That development points to improving confidence among growers, partic- ularly communal farmers who continue to view cotton as a relatively resilient crop in dry regions where maize and other staple crops often underperform.The recovery in output also suggests that con- tract financing systems may be stabilising after several difficult years. For the 2026 marketing season, AMA registered six seed cotton con- tractors, although some are still expected to complete licensing requirements before full participation. The registered contractors include Agri-Value Chain, Cangrow, Cotton Company of Zimbabwe commonly known as Cottco, Roysen Traders operating as Alliance Ginneries, and Southern Cotton Management Services Private Limited.Contractors remain central to Zimbabwe’s cotton industry because most smallholder farm- ers lack access to afford- able agricultural finance. Under contract farming arrangements, companies provide inputs such as seed, fertiliser, chemicals, and technical support. Farmers then repay those costs through cotton deliv- eries during the marketing season. That model explains why side market- ing continues to pose a major threat to sector sus- tainability. Side marketing occurs when farmers sell contracted cotton to rival buyers offering slightly higher spot prices. The practice weakens contrac- tor financing capacity because companies lose the crop needed to recover input costs. Reduced recoveries eventually translate into lower financ- ing availability during future seasons. AMA appears determined to tighten regulation this year.The Authority established 173 permanent and 398 mobile Common Buying Points across the country, bringing the total number of buying points to 571. All purchases must occur through AMA-designated buying points linked to a cen- tralised database system. The expanded infra- structure serves both logistical and regulatory purposes. Mobile buying points reduce trans- port costs for remote farmers while strengthen- ing oversight mechanisms designed to curb illegal cotton trading.Farmers delivering cotton are required to pres- ent national identity documents before selling. Individual deliveries are tracked against expect- ed production volumes, while all cotton dispatches from buying points to ginneries require AMA permits. Authorities also warned that cotton purchased outside designated buying points would be confiscated.Additional enforcement measures include random inspections, criminal prosecution, administrative penalties, deregistration of offenders, and collaboration with law enforce- ment agencies. AMA has also indicated that it may publicly identify violators through “name and shame” measures aimed at discouraging side marketing activities. Pricing remains anoth- er major issue shaping the outlook for the sector.Following negotiations between farmers and contractors, minimum producer prices for the 2026 season were set at US$0.43 per kilogram for Grade A cotton, US$0.41 for Grade B, US$0.38 for Grade C, and US$0.35 for Grade D.Payments will follow the prevailing foreign currency retention framework under Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe guidelines, with 70 percent paid in United States dollars and the remaining 30 percent paid in local currency. Although the announced prices represent some improvement from previous seasons, concerns over profit- ability remain unresolved. Production costs have risen significantly due to inflation, exchange rate instability, expensive fertiliser imports, transport costs, and rising labour expenses. At the same time, global cotton mar- kets remain relatively weak because of subdued international textile demand and slower growth within the global apparel industry. Contractors therefore face increasing pressure between domestic procurement costs and international lint prices.The current pricing framework reflects an attempt to balance farmer viability with contrac- tor sustainability. Farmers continue arguing that prevailing prices do not adequately compensate production risks, particularly in drought-prone regions. Contractors maintain that significantly higher prices could undermine export competi- tiveness and reduce financing capacity. Beyond production recovery, another major issue con- fronting the sector is the widening gap between actual output and national production targets.Production data shows Zimbabwe has consis- tently failed to meet official cotton output targets over recent years. In 2020, actual production reached 74,000 tonnes against a target of 100,000 tonnes, leaving a shortfall of 26,000 tonnes. In 2021, production improved to 116,052 tonnes against a target of 150,000 tonnes. The gap widened further in subsequent years. Zimbabwe produced 54,262 tonnes in 2022 against a target of 116,521 tonnes. In 2023, actual production reached 89,600 tonnes compared to an ambitious target of 285,000 tonnes. The situation deteriorated sharply in 2024 when output collapsed to 13,757 tonnes against a target of 180,000 tonnes. In 2025, the country produced 28,900 tonnes against a target of 189,000 tonnes. These persistent gaps reveal deeper structural weaknesses within the cotton industry.One of the most important implications relates to domestic industrial demand. Zimbabwe’s annual national requirement for cotton lint is estimated at between 30,000 and 40,000 metric tonnes to fully satisfy the domestic textile and clothing manufacturing sectors. Current produc- tion levels remain insufficient to consistently support full industrial capacity utilisation across the textile value chain. Low cotton output affects not only farmers and ginners, but also down- stream industries such as spinning, weaving, garment manufacturing, cooking oil production, and stockfeed manufacturing. Reduced lint availability increases reliance on imports and limits the competitiveness of domestic textile firms already facing pressure from imported clothing and high operating costs.The continued gap between targets and actual production also raises questions about the real- ism of national production planning. Several targets appear highly ambitious relative to financing capacity, climatic risks, irrigation cov- erage, and prevailing farmer incentives. Even so, the current recovery indicates that the sector retains strong potential if financing systems improve, climate resilience strengthens, and producer viability becomes more sustainable.The broader significance of the 2026 cotton marketing season lies in whether current gains can evolve into long-term structural recovery rather than another temporary rebound driven mainly by improved rainfall and hectarage expansion.The foundations for recovery are becoming visible through rising output, expanded planting area, stronger regulatory systems, and increased contractor partici- pation. Several vulnerabili- ties still remain. Climate instability continues to threaten yields. Global cotton prices remain weak. Financing constraints persist across parts of the value chain.The success of the current season will therefore depend on whether farm- ers receive timely pay- ments, whether side mar- keting can be effectively controlled, and whether current pricing structures can support planting deci- sions ahead of the next agricultural cycle.If those conditions hold, Zimbabwe’s cotton indus- try may gradually begin rebuilding its position as a strategic pillar of rural industrial development and agricultural transfor- mation.Z*From Page 5

The AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 7imbabwe's listed companies entered 2026 carrying a macro tailwind of unusu- al clarity. ZiG annual inflation reached 4.4% in March 2026, the exchange rate held at US$1:ZWG25.32 through the first quarter, and the Reserve Bank confirmed zero central bank financing of government had been maintained consistently through Q1 2026. The first batch of Q1 2026 trading updates now shows what that environment was worth to earnings. TN CyberTech Investments Holdings, First Mutual Holdings, ZimRe Holdings, and Zeco Holdings each reported in May 2026, and the results read as a direct transmission from monetary stability to balance sheet performance, with the clearest beneficiaries concentrated in financial services and insurance, and the most exposed compa- nies sitting in real estate and manufacturing-ad- jacent segments. The question the full year must answer is whether macro stability alone can sustain earnings momentum once cost pressures, thin tenant demand, and a high inter- est rate environment begin their delayed trans- mission into operating margins.The four companies span four distinct economic functions inside Zimbabwe's ZSE-listed universe. TN CyberTech Investments Holdings is the parent of TN CyberTech Bank Limited, a technology-first banking institution focused on digital financial services, agriculture lending, and SME credit. First Mutual Holdings is Zimba- bwe's largest diversified insurance group, oper- ating across life, health, general insurance, rein- surance, and property with a balance sheet denominated in both USD and ZWG. ZimRe Holdings is a regional reinsurance and insur- ance group executing a continental expansion strategy it has internally branded the Great Africa Trek, with priority markets in Botswana, Zambia, Malawi, and Mozambique. Zeco Hold- ings operates across construction materials, particularly window and door frames, and com- mercial real estate through its Palm Estate property cluster. Together the four companies provide a cross-sectional read on the ZSE economy that extends from formal banking and insurance through to real estate and light manu- facturing. Their combined Q1 performance maps where stability has reached and where it has not.The earnings mechanism operating across Q1 2026 runs from monetary discipline to financial sector margin expansion, then outward to insur- ance contract revenue and investment income. The RBZ's tight policy stance, which maintained the bank policy rate at 35% and kept statutory reserve requirements elevated, produced scarce ZWG liquidity in the market. For banking, this arises from the direct relationship between monetary tightness and net interest income, where higher rates on lending assets expand the spread available to financial institutions holding interest-bearing portfolios. For insur- ance, which is the other dominant story this quarter, the mechanism is structural. Inflation stability preserves the real value of insurance premiums written in ZWG, and equity market performance on both the ZSE and VFEX gener- ates investment returns that feed directly into profitability. ZHL reported a 31% rise in wealth management total income and a 28% increase in insurance contract revenue to US$20.25 million in Q1 2026, with the performance driven by new business acquisition, regional premium inflows, and product diversification. This is the transmission path in direct operation: stable currency preserves premium value, rising equity markets generate investment return, and regional partnerships add revenue that domes- tic demand alone could not have produced.The deployment of operational capacity across Q1 shows where the earnings will compound and where they will not. TN CyberTech grew earning assets by 23% year-on-year, lifted total assets to ZWG7.2 billion, and cut the cost-to-in- come ratio from 70% to 64% in a single quarter, which is the most concrete efficiency signal in the reporting season. The capital adequacy ratio of 36.71% against a regulatory minimum of 12% means the bank is running excess capital that has not yet been fully deployed into the lending book. The strategic initiatives now in implementation, which are self-service kiosks, Interactive Teller Machines, and an integrated cyber-centre ecosystem, are directed at lower- ing the cost of customer acquisition and deep- ening financial inclusion in segments that formal banking has historically underserved. First Mutual Holdings grew total shareholder revenue to US$50.9 million from US$48.1 million in the prior comparative period, which is a 6% increase in USD terms, with insurance contract revenue growing 7% to US$46.56 million and asset and project management fees rising 52% to US$347,000. The investment return line produced a US$11.53 million gain in the quarter against a prior-period loss of US$590,000, which is the single largest swing factor in the reported profit improvement and which arises directly from ZSE and VFEX equity market performance.The competitive positioning implications of Q1 2026 extend beyond the individual companies into the structure of Zimbabwe's financial sector. The earnings momentum in banking and insur- ance has widened the gap between well-capital- ised, digitally active institutions and those carry- ing legacy cost structures and constrained balance sheets. TN CyberTech's capital ade- quacy ratio of nearly three times the regulatory minimum positions the bank for accelerated lending book growth as the rate cycle turns, and the bank is explicitly preparing the infrastructure to do so. In insurance, ZHL's regional reinsur- ance cluster continues to expand its reach into North and Central Africa, and the group's indi- vidual life business, while still accounting for 72% of written premiums down from 79% the prior year, shows the early stages of product mix diversification, that will reduce earnings concentration risk over the medium term. The Zeco Holdings result is the market signal running in the other direction. Revenue declined to ZWG2,178 million from ZWG2,265 million in the prior year, and while occupancy at Palm Estate improved to 55.88% from 46.67%, this arises from enhanced marketing effort and still leaves 44% of commercial space vacant, which is a structural drag on income rather than a tran- sient one.The exposure map of Q1 2026 splits clearly across sector lines. Financial services and insurance companies are the direct beneficia- ries of the current regime. Low inflation protects real premium income, tight liquidity supports interest margins and equity market performance generates investment returns that flow directly to the bottom line. Companies in these seg- ments are also the primary conduit through which macro stability reaches households and SMEs, which is where the next layer of expo- sure sits. SMEs borrowing at rates anchored to a 35% policy rate are absorbing a financing cost that is materially constraining their investment capacity, which is the structural ceiling on credit demand growth for banks like TN CyberTech. Real estate and construction sit in the exposed layer. Zeco Holdings reported that administra- tion expenses rose 40.96% against a prior year increase of 27.16%, and property expenses rose 15.66% against a prior year rise of 13.29%, meaning cost growth is accelerating across both expense categories even as revenue declines. The transmission from this pattern to eroded operating margin is direct and is already in motion.The Q1 2026 macro frame confirms that ZiG annual inflation at 4.4% in March 2026 represents Zimbabwe's lowest sustained price performance under any domestically issued currency in over three decades, and that foreign reserves cover ZiG reserve money at approxi- mately six times. The RBZ maintained zero cen- tral bank financing of government through the quarter, which is the fiscal-monetary coordina- tion signal institutional investors are watching most carefully as a leading indicator of policy durability. Zimbabwe and the IMF reached a Staff Level Agreement on economic policies and reforms in the first quarter of 2026, which, while not a formal programme, strengthens the monitoring architecture and the credibility of the current policy trajectory. The policy consistency reading for Q1 2026 is positive, with three quali- fications. First, the 35% policy rate remains high in real terms even after inflation compression, and the path and timing of rate reduction will determine how quickly cost-of-capital relief reaches the real sector. Second, Zeco Holdings' outlook statement cites emerging inflationary pressure from rising fuel prices linked to Middle East geopolitical tensions, which is an external risk vector that policy cannot neutralise through domestic instruments alone. Third, the IMF's 5.0% GDP growth projection for 2026 carries a base case assumption of continued agricultural and mining sector contribution that depends on weather, commodity prices, and production con- tinuity across the gold and platinum value chains.The ZimRe Holdings Q1 result carries a region- al signal that extends beyond Zimbabwe's borders. The group's insurance broking cluster achieved significant improvement in new busi- ness acquisition through intensified efforts to diversify revenue streams both locally and through regional partnerships, and the life and pensions cluster recorded 15% growth in insur- ance contract revenue, supported by organic expansion, strategic partnerships, and product diversification. The regional reinsurance seg- ment has historically provided ZHL with an earn- ings hedge against domestic volatility, and the Q1 2026 performance confirms that the hedge is functioning. The evolving protectionist insur- ance legislation across multiple African jurisdic- tions, which ZHL has explicitly cited as a growth catalyst, is creating a class of mandatory ces- sion business that regional reinsurers with established country relationships are positioned to capture. This is the same structural dynamic that has powered South Africa's Sanlam and Old Mutual into regional insurance leadership over the preceding two decades, and ZHL is executing a compressed version of that play- book from a Harare base.The Q1 2026 dataset, taken across the four companies and the macro indicators, produces a set of figures worth anchoring in a compara- tive visual. TN CyberTech recorded revenue growth of 23%, a cost-to-income improvement of 600 basis points, earning asset growth of 23%, and capital adequacy of 36.71%. First Mutual Holdings posted total shareholder reve- nue of US$50.9 million, up 6% in USD terms, profit before tax of US$6.33 million, up 96%, and profit after tax of US$5.56 million, up 137%. ZimRe Holdings recorded insurance contract revenue of US$20.25 million, up 28%. Zeco Holdings reported revenue of ZWG2,178 million, down 4%, with occupancy at 55.88% up from 46.67% and administration cost growth running at 40.96%. Against this, the macro frame holds. ZiG inflation is at 4.4%, the exchange rate is stable at ZWG25.32 per USD and GDP growth projected at 6.5% for 2026 with agriculture at 5.4%, mining at 6.3%, and manufacturing at 3.7%.The full year 2026 earnings outlook carries four risks that investors and operating companies should position around now. The first is interest rate trajectory. The 35% policy rate is the single Earnings Season ReviewStability Dividend and Unfilled Gaps*To Page 8Z

The AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 8*To Page 9hen Harare announced formal acces- sion talks with the New Development Bank on 15 May 2026, it did not simply apply for a loan, but chose a side in the defining financial contest of our era, and Aliko Dangote's $1 billion pivot had already pointed the way.There is a moment in the life of a sanctioned, debt-distressed, diplomatically isolated econo- my when the calculus of alignment stops being ideological and becomes purely architectural. Zimbabwe reached that moment this month. On 15 May 2026, Finance Minister Prof. Mthuli Ncube announced that the Board of Directors of the New Development Bank, the multilateral lender established in 2015 by the BRICS nations, had formally authorised the com- mencement of membership negotiations with Harare. The communication arrived directly from NDB President Dilma Rousseff. It was, by any measure, a significant diplomatic break- through dressed in the language of develop- ment finance.But the story is larger than one country's accession bid. Read alongside the USD 1 billion investment signed by Aliko Dangote's group in Harare six months earlier, a deal that itself inverted a decade of failed negotiations, Zimba- bwe's NDB bid illuminates something far more consequential: the emergence of a parallel architecture of Southern capital that is begin- ning to function not as aspiration but as opera- tional reality.Zimbabwe's journey toward the NDB is insepa- rable from its political transformation. When Aliko Dangote first visited Harare in 2015, under the late President Robert Mugabe, he arrived with plans for a USD 400 million cement plant capable of processing 1.5 million tonnes annu- ally. Those plans quietly collapsed. The reasons were not publicised, but those close to the sub- sequent negotiations spoke of bribe demands, an opaque regulatory environment, and tight state control over electricity tariffs that made any energy-intensive industrial project a com- mercial impossibility.The 2017 military-assisted transition that brought Emmerson Mnangagwa to power changed the operating environment, at least in aspiration. Mnangagwa staked his presidency on a re-engagement agenda, courting Western investors, promising transparency, and pursu- ing IMF Staff-Monitored Programmes. The West remained wary. Sanctions imposed by the United States and European Union, rooted in the Mugabe era's land seizures and human rights abuses, remained largely in place, limiting Zimbabwe's access to concessional Western financing and keeping Harare outside the borrowing universe of institutions like the World Bank and the IMF's conventional lending facili- ties. It was precisely this gap that the NDB was designed to fill, not for Zimbabwe specifically, but for the broader universe of emerging econo- mies that felt the Bretton Woods architecture was built for someone else's interests.The New Development Bank that Zimbabwe is seeking to join in 2026 is a substantially differ- ent institution from the one founded in Shanghai in 2015. Its original authorised capital of USD 100 billion was equally divided among five founding members: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. For the first several years, its lending portfolio grew steadily, from USD 1.5 billion in 2016 to USD 8.6 billion annually by 2020.Then came Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and with it a crisis of identity that the bank has not entirely resolved. Bound by West- ern-aligned credit rating requirements, the NDB A Defining MomentHarare Taps Global FinanceW*From Page 7 most consequential variable for banking sector earnings, insurance investment income, and real sector borrowing costs simultaneously. A rate reduction cycle, if it begins in H2 2026, would compress bank margins and insurance investment returns while releasing demand-side pressure on borrowers, producing a net effect that will differ substantially across sectors. Companies with high earnings dependency on the interest rate environment, which is the case for TN CyberTech, should be building out non-interest income streams before the rate cycle turns. The second risk is cost accelera- tion. The Zeco Holdings result shows adminis- trative and property costs rising faster than revenue, and this pattern will appear in other sectors if wage pressure and utility cost inflation are not offset by revenue growth or efficiency gains. The third risk is tenant demand. Palm Estate at 55.88% occupancy is not yet a viable commercial property business, and the expected improvement is contingent on a single anchor tenant decision. Concentration of occu- pancy recovery in one tenant event is a binary risk and not a trend. The fourth risk is external, fuel price inflation from Middle East disruption, as Zeco Holdings noted, would transmit into production costs, logistics and ultimately price levels in a way that challenges the RBZ's single-digit inflation target. ZHL's confidence rests on its diversified business model support- ed by disciplined underwriting, revenue diversi- fication, and growth in fee-based income and that structure is the forward template for resil- ience across the broader market which is multi- ple income streams, regional coverage, and low earnings concentration in any single domestic risk factor.Zimbabwe's 2026 earnings season is delivering proof of concept for a monetary architecture that has spent two years being tested against scepticism. The stability dividend is now measurable in profit statements, efficiency ratios, and investment returns. What the Q1 results also confirm is that stability is a floor and not a ceil- ing. The companies translating macro stability into genuine earnings power are those that have invested in digital infrastructure, regional diversification, and product breadth over the preceding two years. The ones waiting for stability to generate revenue on its own are find- ing that a stable exchange rate does not fill office blocks or compress cost lines. The full year 2026 will be decided by how much of Zim- babwe's productive capacity is positioned to convert that stability into growth before the external environment tests the architecture again.

ZThe AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 9*From Page 8 carries AA+ ratings from both S&P and Fitch, and the institution was forced to suspend new transactions with Russia, one of its founding shareholders, to preserve its access to capital markets. The contradiction was glaring: a bank created to offer an alternative to Western-domi- nated finance was itself constrained by West- ern-dominated compliance infrastructure.Annual lending volumes collapsed to USD 1.7 billion in 2023 before recovering to USD 3.2 billion in 2024. The institution responded by doubling down on dedollarisation: NDB Presi- dent Rousseff pledged that 30% of the bank's loan book would be denominated in member currencies by 2026, up from 22%. By May 2026, the bank had approved over USD 37 billion across 112 projects since inception. Its mem- bership had expanded to include Bangladesh, the UAE, Egypt, Algeria, Uruguay, Colombia, and Uzbekistan, with Zimbabwe, Honduras, and Serbia formally in the accession pipeline.No development in Zimbabwe's recent econom- ic history is more instructive than the return of Aliko Dangote. In November 2025, Africa's wealthiest man signed a memorandum of understanding with President Mnangagwa that his own group described as worth over USD 1 billion. The deal covered a cement plant, power generation facilities, and the centrepiece: a 2,200-kilometre petroleum product pipeline running from Namibia's Walvis Bay port, through Botswana, all the way to Bulawayo, Zimbabwe's second city. A 1.6-million-barrel fuel storage facility in Walvis Bay was included to anchor supply for the entire Southern African Development Community.It was not simply a large investment. It was a reversal. Dangote had abandoned Zimbabwe a decade earlier under conditions he chose to describe diplomatically as reflecting a different time. Now, speaking to reporters outside State House, he was blunt: Mnangagwa had turned the economy around, and that gave his group the confidence that the time was right to invest. For an investor of Dangote's stature, operating across 17 African countries, managing what is now the world's largest single-train oil refinery with a 650,000-barrels-per-day capacity and an expansion plan targeting USD 40 billion in fresh capital for the African continent, his choice of Zimbabwe was not incidental.The Dangote shift matters because it performs a function that official statements cannot: it con- verts subjective assessment of Zimbabwe's governance into a verifiable market signal. When an investor who walked away from Mug- abe's Zimbabwe returns under Mnangagwa and commits at scale, the signal to every other capi- tal allocator in the Global South is that the mini- mum threshold of sovereign risk has been crossed.But the substance of the Dangote deal, its pipe- line component specifically, reveals a geopoliti- cal logic that runs deeper than investor confi- dence in one government. The 2,200-kilometre Walvis Bay to Bulawayo pipeline is designed to connect Dangote's Lagos refinery supply chain with Southern Africa's landlocked interior. It would reduce the region's dependence on fuel imports from Europe and Asia. It would leverage Namibia's emerging offshore oil resources. And it would, critically, compete with the existing pipeline link from Mozambique, establishing an alternative energy corridor for SADC built entirely through African-owned infrastructure. This is not merely commerce. It is an act of infrastructure sovereignty, the creation of supply chains that do not route through Western finan- cial or logistical chokepoints.There is, however, a critical qualification attached to the Dangote story. His broader African expansion plan, targeting USD 100 billion in annual group turnover by 2030 with Afreximbank named as a supporting financier, has its most recent large commitment not in Zimbabwe but in Ethiopia. In August 2025, Dan- gote signed a USD 2.4 billion fertiliser plant agreement in Gode, Ethiopia, leveraging the Hilal and Calub natural gas reserves, with con- struction having commenced in October 2025. The Ethiopia deal is further advanced. The Zim- babwe commitments remain at MoU stage. Translating Dangote's expressed confidence into groundbreaking is the unfinished chapter of this story for Harare.What NDB Membership Actually Means and What It Does NotMinister Ncube's statement of 15 May 2026 was carefully calibrated. The language of re-en- gagement and growing international confidence is aimed simultaneously at two audiences: the NDB's BRICS-aligned shareholders, and the Western creditors whose eventual normalisa- tion Zimbabwe still requires for sustainable macroeconomic stability. The NDB's member- ship conditions are open to all UN member states. The bank's articles of agreement place no ideological requirements on accession. Ban- gladesh and the UAE are both members. So is Uruguay. The institution has deliberately main- tained a non-Western identity while avoiding the explicit anti-Western framing that would make its credit ratings untenable.This matters for Zimbabwe because the coun- try's path to NDB membership is not, as some domestic commentary has framed it, an act of defiance against the West. It is a pragmatic attempt to access the one category of develop- ment finance available without the political con- ditionalities that have made IMF and World Bank financing impossible for Harare. The NDB does not demand the removal of foreign exchange controls as a precondition for a loan. It does not require political reforms as a disbursement trigger. What it does require is creditworthiness, and Zimbabwe's fiscal posi- tion, while improved under Ncube's steward- ship, remains fragile.The structural challenge is this. NDB member- ship entitles Zimbabwe to apply for project financing. It does not guarantee it. The bank's portfolio, as of mid-2026, has concentrated its local currency lending almost entirely in China, 21 projects worth USD 7.3 billion in yuan, and South Africa, six projects worth USD 2.5 billion in rand. No NDB loan has yet been approved in the currency of a non-founding member. For Zimbabwe, which operates the Zimbabwe Gold currency introduced in April 2024 as part of its latest attempt at monetary stabilisation, access- ing NDB financing in local currency remains a distant prospect. It is more likely that any initial NDB projects would be dollar-denominated, reintroducing the very foreign exchange pres- sure that Zimbabwe's monetary strategy is designed to reduce.Furthermore, the NDB's own governance tensions are unresolved. Russia, which contrib- uted USD 2 billion in paid-in capital to the bank and subscribed to USD 8 billion in callable capi- tal, has effectively been frozen out of the institu- tion it helped found. The bank's decision to prioritise its credit ratings over its founding member's interests may reflect prudent financial management, but it also signals to prospective members like Zimbabwe that NDB membership is not a guarantee against geopolitical exclusion from the bank's benefits.None of this negates the strategic significance of Zimbabwe's accession. The NDB's expand- ing membership is rewriting the map of who can access multilateral development finance without political conditionality. For countries in the Global South that have been systematically excluded from Western-aligned financial institu- tions, either through sanctions, debt distress, or governance concerns, the NDB offers a credible alternative at institutional scale. As the Brook- ings Institution noted in its 2026 Foresight Africa report, official development assistance fell 9% in 2024 and was projected to decline a further 9% to 17% in 2025, with the dissolution of USAID representing the most visible expression of this withdrawal. The NDB is not filling the entire gap, its USD 6 billion annual lending target is a fraction of what Africa requires, but it is filling a politically important part of it.Zimbabwe's accession also carries symbolic weight that transcends its immediate financing implications. The NDB's board does not admit countries as charity cases. The authorisation of formal negotiations with Harare is, at minimum, a signal that the bank's shareholders, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, are collectively prepared to underwrite Zimbabwe's developmental credibility. For a country that has spent two decades outside the mainstream of international capital markets, that signal has value independent of any specific loan.Place the events of the past six months in sequence. Dangote returns to Zimbabwe and commits USD 1 billion to a pipeline that would make Southern Africa less dependent on Euro- pean and Asian fuel supply chains. Six months later, Harare formally enters accession talks with the BRICS bank, an institution whose explicit strategic objective is to reduce the dollar's grip on development finance. In the background, the NDB is pressing ahead with local currency lending, a planned BRICS Multi- lateral Guarantee mechanism, and a member- ship expansion that now includes a substantial portion of the African continent.None of this is coincidence. It is the visible infra- structure of a reordering that has been under- way since at least 2022, when the Ukraine war demonstrated, simultaneously and to very different audiences, both the power and the limits of Western financial architecture as a geo- political instrument. Countries that observed Russia's exclusion from the SWIFT system, the NDB, and Western capital markets drew their own conclusions about the risks of singular alignment. Zimbabwe, already excluded from that architecture by sanctions, had less to lose and potentially more to gain from the alternative order being constructed in Shanghai, Brasília, and Johannesburg.The most analytically significant element of the 15 May announcement is not the accession itself, which was anticipated, given President Mnangagwa's 2023 application. What is genu- inely significant is the convergence. Private sector capital in the form of Dangote, multilater- al institutional capital in the form of the NDB, and geopolitical alignment through BRICS are beginning to reinforce each other in a single country's development strategy in a way that was theoretically argued for years but is now operationally visible. Zimbabwe is not a large economy. Its GDP was approximately USD 26 billion in 2025, barely a rounding error in the NDB's USD 100 billion capitalisation. But as a test case for whether the Southern alternative architecture can deliver for a small, sanctioned, debt-distressed African state, it carries conse- quences far beyond its borders.The question that remains unanswered, and that Harare's policymakers must answer hon- estly rather than rhetorically, is whether Zimba- bwe's internal conditions can convert access to Southern capital into sustained structural trans- formation. The Dangote deals of 2015 failed not because Southern capital was unavailable, but because the domestic environment made returns impossible. The institutions signing agreements in 2025 and 2026 are betting that the environment has genuinely changed. The accession negotiations that began this month will, over the next several years, produce the evidence that either validates or refutes that bet. Africa is watching. So is the world.

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SWFThe AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 11*To Page 12imbabwe’s ambition to achieve Universal Health Coverage is entering what may become its most defining phase yet. With June 2026 now only weeks away, attention is increasingly shifting from political commitment and policy declarations toward a far more diffi- cult question. Can the country realistically launch a functional National Health Insurance system within the timeframe government has publicly announced?The answer remains uncertain. Over the past two years, Zimbabwe has intensified efforts to reposition healthcare as a central pillar of Vision 2030. Authorities have announced major reforms targeting workforce expansion, health financing, disease preparedness, infrastructure rehabilitation, and broader access to medical services. The proposed National Health Insur- ance scheme now sits at the centre of that transformation agenda.Government intends for the scheme to become the financial backbone of Universal Health Cov- erage by reducing out-of-pocket healthcare costs and expanding access for millions of unin- sured citizens. Officials say the National Health Insurance framework will ensure Zimbabweans can access consultations, laboratory tests, treatment, medicines, and surgical procedures without catastrophic financial burdens.The vision is ambitious. The timing is even more ambitious. Zimbabwe currently has one of the lowest medical insurance penetration rates in the region. Only around 13 percent of the popu- lation is covered by private medical aid schemes, most of whom are formally employed workers concentrated in urban centres. That leaves the overwhelming majority of citizens dependent on underfunded public healthcare systems or direct out-of-pocket payments.For years, this has created deep inequalities in healthcare access. A serious illness often forces families to borrow money, liquidate assets, delay treatment, or abandon medical care alto- gether. Rural communities remain particularly vulnerable due to transport costs, medicine shortages, and limited specialist services. Uni- versal Health Coverage therefore carries enor- mous political, economic, and social signifi- cance. Health authorities have framed the National Health Insurance scheme as the mech- anism capable of closing that gap.According to the Ministry of Health and Child Care, the proposed system will be funded through a combination of existing and new earmarked taxes, including sugar taxes and airtime levies. Government intends to ring-fence those revenues specifically for healthcare financing rather than allowing them to flow into general Treasury allocations.In principle, the financing model reflects a grow- ing international shift toward domestic resource mobilisation as donor support becomes increas- ingly uncertain.That shift is becoming unavoidable for Zimba- bwe. Recent discussions within the health sector have repeatedly highlighted the growing pressure created by declining external support for programmes targeting HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, and broader public health services. Health Secretary Dr. Aspect Maunganidze recently warned that the withdrawal of some United States funding arrangements has wid- ened financing gaps within critical health programmes. That development has intensified pressure on government to create sustainable domestic financing systems capable of insulat- ing healthcare delivery from external donor volatility.The National Health Insurance proposal there- fore emerges not only as a healthcare reform initiative, but also as a broader fiscal and institu- tional restructuring exercise. Several develop- ments suggest government is attempting to create the institutional foundations necessary for such a transition.One of the most important was the launch of the Zimbabwe National Public Health Institute in late 2025. The institute was established to strengthen disease surveillance, outbreak preparedness, public health coordination, and national health security systems. Its creation reflected lessons learned from recent global health crises and increasing recognition that resilient healthcare systems require stronger technical institutions.Zimbabwe also launched a One Health Strate- gic Plan targeting the intersection between human, animal, and environmental health. The framework aims to strengthen preparedness against emerging diseases, climate-linked health risks, and zoonotic outbreaks.Alongside those institutional reforms, authorities unveiled a major health workforce compact requiring an estimated US$1.63 billion invest- ment. The initiative seeks to recruit thousands of additional healthcare workers while improving retention, training, and workforce resilience.Government has committed to financing 75 percent of the required resources under that framework. The scale of the investment reflects the severity of Zimbabwe’s healthcare staffing challenges. Public hospitals and clinics continue to struggle with shortages of doctors, nurses, laboratory technicians, radiographers, and spe- cialist personnel. Migration of healthcare profes- sionals to neighbouring countries and overseas markets has weakened staffing levels across large sections of the public health system.The Community Working Group on Health has repeatedly warned that staffing pressures could worsen following the expiry of donor-funded health worker contracts. Advocacy groups have also continued lobbying government to expand the public health payroll and increase domestic health financing allocations.Those pressures raise difficult questions about readiness for National Health Insurance imple- mentation. A functioning insurance system requires far more than legislation or tax collection mechanisms. It demands strong administra- tive systems, reliable claims processing struc- tures, digitised patient management systems, functioning referral networks, medicine avail- ability, healthcare personnel capacity, and public trust.At present, several of those systems still appear to be under development. Government has indi- cated that draft legislation for the National Health Insurance scheme has already secured Cabinet approval and is approaching final stages before Parliament. Even so, limited public information has been released regarding operational details.Questions remain around contribution struc- tures, reimbursement mechanisms, provider accreditation systems, benefit packages, gover- nance frameworks, and implementation sequencing. There has also been little public communication regarding how informal sector workers, unemployed citizens, and vulnerable households will be integrated into the financing structure. Those technical details are not minor administrative issues. They determine whether a national insurance system becomes function- al, financially sustainable, and publicly trusted.The compressed timeline is therefore attracting growing scrutiny. June 2026 is rapidly approaching, although no detailed implementa- tion roadmap has yet been publicly communi- cated at scale. There has been no major nation- wide public education campaign outlining how registration, contributions, claims, or service access will operate once the scheme begins.That does not necessarily mean implementation will fail. Governments sometimes phase in large reforms gradually while maintaining headline launch dates for political and administrative momentum. Zimbabwe could still proceed with an initial rollout targeting specific populations, facilities, or pilot structures before full nation- wide implementation.Even so, the absence of extensive operational clarity this close to the proposed launch date naturally fuels scepticism. The broader concern is whether the health system itself currently pos- sesses sufficient capacity to absorb increased demand once financial access barriers begin falling. Universal Health Coverage is not simply about insurance cards or funding pools. Citizens must also encounter functioning hospitals, avail- able medicines, staffed clinics, diagnostic equipment, ambulances, and referral systems capable of handling rising patient volumes.Zimbabwe has made measurable progress in some health indicators. According to the Zimba- bwe Demographic and Health Survey, maternal mortality declined significantly from 651 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2015 to 212 in 2024. Life expectancy also increased from 61 years to 64.4 years over the same period. Those gains indicate improvements in several areas of public healthcare delivery.At the same time, major vulnerabilities remain visible. Neonatal mortality reportedly increased Universal Health Coverage NearsJune Deadline Raises Questions& AnalysisZ

WThe AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 12*To Page 12*From Page 11 to 37 deaths per 1,000 live births, exposing continuing weaknesses in newborn and perina- tal healthcare systems. Medicine shortages still affect many public institutions. Infrastructure rehabilitation remains incomplete across sec- tions of the hospital network. Equipment short- ages continue affecting diagnostic capacity in parts of the country.The financial realities are equally important. Zimbabwe continues facing competing fiscal pressures across debt servicing, infrastructure, education, agriculture, and social protection programmes. Achieving sustainable Universal Health Coverage requires long-term financing predictability, not only initial political enthusi- asm.Health sector advocates have therefore contin- ued reminding government about its commit- ments under the Abuja Declaration, which recommends allocating at least 15 percent of national budgets toward health expenditure.Zimbabwe has historically struggled to consis- tently meet that benchmark. The challenge now is whether National Health Insurance can evolve into a credible long-term financing mech- anism rather than another underfunded reform initiative constrained by fiscal instability.There are reasons for cautious optimism. The country has clearly recognised the need for stronger domestic health financing systems. Institutional reforms are already underway. Political commitment appears stronger than in previous years. The integration of workforce planning, disease preparedness, and financing reforms suggests a more coordinated policy direction than what existed previously.Global recognition of Zimbabwean health advo- cates such as Itai Rusike also reflects growing international attention toward community-led healthcare justice and financing reforms emerg- ing from Zimbabwe’s public health discourse.Even so, implementation will ultimately determine credibility. The coming months are likely to reveal whether June 2026 represents the begin- ning of a phased transition toward Universal Health Coverage or whether timelines may require adjustment as technical systems contin- ue developing. For ordinary Zimbabweans, the stakes extend far beyond policy language.A functional National Health Insurance system could reduce medical poverty, improve health- care access, strengthen workforce retention, and gradually restore confidence in public healthcare institutions. Failure to execute effec- tively could deepen scepticism toward large-scale reform promises and further strain an already fragile health system.Zimbabwe’s Universal Health Coverage ambi- tions remain both necessary and achievable over the long term. The immediate question is whether the country is institutionally and fiscally prepared to begin that journey within the ambi- tious timeline it has set for itself.n 29 April 2026, Zimbabwe's Meteoro- logical Services Department issued a statement measured in the careful, hedged language of science. The probability of an El Niño event developing during the 2026/27 rainy season, it said, ranged from 88% to 94%, based on readings from global forecasting cen- tres. The spring predictability barrier meant con- ditions could still shift. The official National Agro- meteorological Committee Forum outlook would follow in August. Farmers should not panic. Stakeholders should consult official channels only.The statement was responsible and cautious. It was also, in the context of Zimbabwe's econom- ic and agricultural history, a slow-burning alarm. Because in this country, a disrupted rain season is not merely a weather event, it is a fiscal event, a food security event, a currency event, and a poverty event. If the 88% to 94% probability holds, Zimbabwe faces the prospect of absorb- ing its second severe El Niño shock in three years, at precisely the moment when its recov- ery from the last one had begun to generate genuine momentum.To understand the stakes, one must first under- stand agriculture's true weight in Zimbabwe's economy, a weight that official GDP percentage figures routinely understate. World Bank data for 2025 puts the sector's direct value-added contribution at approximately 12% of GDP when measured against the fuller scope that govern- ment and FAO figures employ. What is not in dispute is the sector's cascading significance. Agriculture employs approximately 70% of Zim- babwe's population, supplies 68% of raw mate- rials to the manufacturing sector, accounts for a significant figure of export earnings just below mining, and provides direct livelihoods for the rural communities that constitute the bulk of the country's 16 million people.Tobacco, Zimbabwe's premier commercial crop, generated a record 355 million kilograms in the 2025 marketing season, yielding approximately USD 1.4 billion in export receipts and supporting the livelihoods of roughly 3 million people direct- ly and through the contract farming and input supply chains that anchor smallholder participa- tion in the crop. The 2026 season was projected to exceed that record, with planted area rising 15% to 164,536 hectares and marketing esti- mates approaching 360 million kilograms before the MSD's warning. When the rains fail, these numbers do not simply contract on a spread- sheet but also translate into income loss at the household level, supply chain disruption at the manufacturing level, foreign currency shortfalls at the macroeconomic level, and spending pres- sure at the fiscal level.The historically average contribution of agricul- ture to Zimbabwe's GDP across six decades stands at 14.14%. During Zimbabwe's most productive agricultural years, the era before the catastrophic land reform programme of the early 2000s decimated commercial farming, the sector reached as high as 21.86% of GDP. The country was then sub-Saharan Africa's bread- basket, a net exporter of maize to the region. That era has not returned. But agriculture's recovery over the past decade, anchored in smallholder tobacco production and contract farming models, has made it once again the single most consequential variable in Zimba- bwe's annual economic performance.The last El Niño event is not ancient history. It is a data-rich case study of what happens to Zim- babwe's economy when the rain fails, and it should inform every aspect of how the country reads the MSD's April 2026 warning.In the 2023/24 growing season, Zimbabwe experienced what meteorologists and agricul- tural analysts described as the worst drought in 40 years. Driven by a strong El Niño, the season was characterised by a catastrophic dry spell lasting more than 30 days in February 2024, following deceptive early rainfall across main maize-planting areas. The results were swift and severe. Maize production, at a point where Zimbabwe requires approximately 1.8 million tonnes annually for human consumption, dropped by 60% relative to the five-year aver- age. The government's own crop assessment projected a 72% decline in maize output for the season. Zimbabwe joined Zambia and Malawi in declaring a national state of disaster.The macroeconomic consequences were precisely quantified by the World Bank in its January 2025 Zimbabwe Economic Update. The El Niño-induced drought caused approxi- mately USD 363 million in direct damage and losses. It resulted in a projected 3.2% drop in Drought Fears ReturnZim’s Recovery Faces Early StressO

AThe AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 13*From Page 12 GDP, a figure that, in an economy of Zimba- bwe's size, represented the erasure of years of incremental reform gains in a single season. Agricultural output contracted 15% in 2024, dragging real GDP growth for the full year down to 2%, sharply below the 5.3% recorded in 2023. Government revenue declined to 18.5% of GDP against 19.2% in a no-drought scenario, while expenditure rose to 20.9% of GDP as the state scrambled to fund food imports and main- tain salaries. The fiscal deficit widened by 0.9% of GDP. An estimated 6 million Zimbabweans faced food insecurity during the 2024/25 lean season.The 2024/25 season delivered exactly what Zimbabwe's economy needed: rain. The African Development Bank revised real GDP growth upward to 6.6%, driven by a 12.8% expansion in agricultural output. Maize production reached 1.8 million tonnes, almost four times the drought-year output. Tobacco hit the record 355 million kilograms, providing the export revenue and rural liquidity that cascaded through the broader economy. The World Bank noted that the rebound was directly traceable to improved rainfall combined with better access to inputs, a confirmation that what changed was the weath- er, not the underlying structural vulnerability.This is the critical insight that the MSD's April 2026 warning demands policymakers confront honestly. Zimbabwe's recovery from the last El Niño was weather-dependent, not reform-driv- en. The 2025 rebound was genuine, but its causes were temporary. Tobacco output in 2026 is projected to exceed 360 million kilograms, eclipsing the 2025 record, with planted area rising 15% to 164,536 hectares. The govern- ment's Agriculture, Food Systems and Rural Transformation Strategy II had set an intermedi- ate target of USD 11.5 billion in agricultural output for 2026. These projections were built on the assumption of continued favourable rainfall. The MSD's 88% to 94% El Niño probability signal, issued three months before the official NACOF forecast, puts every one of them in question.What makes the 2026/27 El Niño warning more alarming than a weather forecast is the context in which it arrives. Zimbabwe is not approaching the potential drought from a position of strength. Several structural vulnerabilities compound the risk significantly.The country's gross reserves remain danger- ously below 3-month of import cover. When drought forces grain importation on a large scale, as it did in 2024, the foreign exchange pressure is immediate and severe. Finance Minister Prof. Mthuli Ncube was compelled during the last drought to reallocate budgeted funds from other portfolios to fund grain imports. A repeat of that pressure would arrive at a moment when Zimbabwe's fiscal space is already constrained by unsustainable public debt as assessed by the IMF, domestic payment arrears representing approximately 26% of GDP, and the withdrawal of USAID in January 2025, which removed a critical humanitarian safety net from the fiscal and food security architecture.The manufacturing sector's expo- sure is equally direct. Agriculture supplies 68% of the raw materials that Zimbabwean industry requires. When agricultural output collapses, industrial capacity utilisation follows. When rural incomes fall, domestic consumption contracts. The forward and backward linkages of the agri- cultural sector mean that a drought's economic damage radiates outward well beyond the farm gate. Manufac- turing capacity utilisation recovered from 35% in 2020 to over 65% in 2025. A major drought would put meaningful portions of that recovery at risk.Perhaps the most alarming dimen- sion of the MSD's warning is what it implies about trajectory. The World Bank's 2025 Zimbabwe Country Climate and Development Report noted that the frequency of droughts in Zimbabwe had risen from once in every ten growing seasons between 1902 and 1979, to once in every four growing seasons between 1980 and 2011, with a further acceler- ation documented since then. If the 2026/27 El Niño materialises, Zimbabwe will have experi- enced severe drought conditions in two out of three consecutive growing seasons, a pattern that represents not a temporary climate anoma- ly but an emergent structural condition.The World Bank's quantification of this trajecto- ry deserves repetition in every agricultural and fiscal planning document the Zimbabwean gov- ernment produces: unaddressed, climate change could erode up to 12% of GDP annually. The cost of adaptation, by contrast, is estimated at less than 1% of GDP. Every dollar invested in early, anticipatory measures saves up to USD 16 in future costs. Zimbabwe's government has, to its credit, invested in Africa Risk Capacity sovereign drought insurance, with a payout triggered during the 2023/24 crisis, and the NACOF framework provides more reliable sea- sonal guidance than the preliminary models cited in the MSD's April statement. But insur- ance pays out after the damage. What the 88% to 94% probability demands is preparation before it.What a Disruption Means Across Zimba- bwe's EconomyFood security is the first and most direct trans- mission channel. A 65% historical probability of below-normal rainfall translates directly into maize shortfalls. Zimbabwe's 1.8 million tonne annual human consumption requirement is met domestically only in good seasons. In a repeat of 2023/24 conditions, up to 6 million people face acute food insecurity during the lean season, requiring large-scale humanitarian and commercial food importation at a moment when reserves are thin and multilateral safety nets have been partially withdrawn.GDP growth is the second transmission channel and the one with the most direct implications for Zimbabwe's capital markets and sovereign credibility. The 2023/24 drought produced a 3.2% GDP decline from forecast. In 2026, where baseline growth projections sit at approx- imately 5.0%, a comparable El Niño shock could reduce growth to below 2%, erasing three years of reform-driven momentum and pushing the economy back toward stagnation precisely as the government pursues Vision 2030 upper-middle-income ambitions.Fiscal pressure is the third channel and the one that creates the most dangerous secondary effects. Government revenue falls as economic activity slows, by approximately 0.7% of GDP in the drought scenario, while expenditure rises to fund food imports and emergency response. The fiscal deficit widens, creating pressure to monetise the gap, which is exactly the inflation- ary risk that Zimbabwe's ZiG currency manage- ment cannot absorb without damaging the exchange rate stability that has been one of the most consequential reform gains of the past two years.Export earnings represent the fourth channel. Tobacco, which in 2025 generated approxi- mately USD 1.4 billion in export receipts and now anchors the ZiG's external account posi- tion, is highly sensitive to rainfall during the growing and curing season. A disrupted 2026/27 growing season would shrink the mar- keting volumes that, in 2025, provided the foreign exchange buffer sustaining the ZiG's relative stability. The compounding pressure on reserves, arriving simultaneously from reduced tobacco receipts and increased import require- ments for grain, is precisely the scenario that turns a weather event into a currency event.The MSD's statement was responsible in urging the public not to make final agricultural or finan- cial decisions based on preliminary models. The spring predictability barrier is real, and the official NACOF seasonal forecast in August 2026 will provide far more reliable guidance. But responsible scientific caution is not the same as institutional complacency. There is a great deal that should happen between now and August, regardless of what the August forecast ultimate- ly says.First, the government must begin contingency planning for seed procurement, fertiliser subsi- dy prioritisation, and emergency grain import financing now, not in October when the damage is underway. The 2023/24 drought exposed the cost of reactive crisis management. Finance Minister Ncube scrambled to reallocate budget lines while the crop was already failing. The anticipatory action framework that Zimbabwe has adopted in principle must be activated in practice at the 88% to 94% probability thresh- old.Second, Zimbabwe's New Development Bank accession talks carry new urgency in this con- text. Infrastructure resilience, encompassing irrigation, water storage, and drought-tolerant seed programmes, is precisely the category of sustainable development financing the NDB is mandated to provide. The Dangote group's commitment to a fertiliser plant in Zimbabwe is similarly more consequential under drought conditions than in normal seasons: domestic fertiliser access can partially offset the rainfall deficit for farmers who practise supplemental irrigation. These strategic connections between geopolitical capital positioning and climate resil- ience need to be made explicit in government planning, not treated as parallel tracks.Third, and most fundamentally, the 88% to 94% El Niño signal should force an honest public reckoning with a truth that Zimbabwe's growth forecasts have thus far avoided stating plainly. An economy in which 70% of the population depends on rainfed subsistence agriculture, which has experienced drought conditions in one of every three to four growing seasons for the past four decades, and which faces an accelerating climate disruption trajectory, cannot achieve Vision 2030's upper-middle-income ambitions without a radical structural shift in how water, land, and farming inputs are managed at scale.Zimbabwe's Meteorological Services Department deserves credit for issu- ing a preliminary warning three months before the official seasonal forecast. Proactive communication of climate risk is itself a form of eco- nomic governance. The question is whether the institutions that receive such warnings are equipped and empowered to act on them, not after the season ends, but before the first seed goes into the ground. The window between the MSD's warning and the first rains of the 2026/27 season is not a waiting period. It is an opportunity, and it is closing.

The AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 14he declaration by the World Health Orga- nization that the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern has once again placed Africa’s public health systems under intense scrutiny. The announcement reflects growing concern over the complexity of the outbreak, the rare strain involved, and the risk of regional spread within one of the continent’s most mobile cross border corridors.The outbreak is being driven by the Bundibugyo virus, one of the rarer Ebola causing viruses for which there are currently no approved vaccines or therapeutics. That alone makes the situation more complicated than previous Ebola outbreaks where ring vaccination strategies played a major role in containing transmission.As of May 16, authorities had reported 246 sus- pected cases and 80 suspected deaths in Ituri Province in eastern DRC. Uganda has also con- firmed cases, including at least one death in Kampala involving a 59 year old man who tested positive for the virus. The virus has already crossed borders. One confirmed case has also reportedly reached Kinshasa after a patient travelled from Ituri.The numbers remain fluid because many cases are still classified as suspected rather than labo- ratory confirmed. Even so, the declaration itself signals that international health authorities are treating the outbreak with serious concern. The World Health Organization has been careful to avoid triggering unnecessary global panic. Offi- cials have stated that the outbreak does not currently meet the threshold of a pandemic emergency and have advised against interna- tional travel or trade restrictions outside affected regions.Ebola is not transmitted in the same way as airborne respiratory viruses such as COVID 19 or influenza. Transmission requires direct con- tact with infected bodily fluids, contaminated materials, or infected patients, particularly during later stages of illness. The highest risk groups are healthcare workers, caregivers, and communities directly exposed to infected indi- viduals. At the same time, Ebola outbreaks can escalate rapidly when surveillance systems weaken, contact tracing breaks down, or health systems become overwhelmed.That risk is particularly pronounced in eastern DRC. According to experts from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, the outbreak is unfolding in Ituri Province, a region characterised by insecu- rity, population displace- ment, weak infrastruc- ture, and highly mobile mining communities. Those conditions compli- cate almost every aspect of outbreak containment.Health workers often struggle to reach affect- ed communities. Sam- ples become difficult to transport. Contact trac- ing systems face inter- ruptions. Community mistrust can slow coop- eration with authorities. Population mobility creates opportunities for silent transmission across districts and borders.Eastern DRC has faced this challenge before. The major Ebola outbreak between 2018 and 2020 in North Kivu and Ituri demonstrated how insecurity and armed conflict can severely undermine disease response operations. Repeated attacks on health teams, misinformation campaigns, and mistrust toward authorities prolonged transmis- sion chains and complicated containment efforts.The current outbreak revives those concerns. The Bundibugyo strain also creates additional uncertainty because global preparedness remains limited for rarer Ebola variants. Existing vaccines were primarily developed around the Zaire strain, which caused several major outbreaks over the past decade.No licensed vaccine currently exists specifically for Bundibugyo virus disease. That means response efforts rely heavily on traditional public health measures including rapid isolation of cases, contact tracing, infection prevention systems, safe burials, border surveillance, and supportive clinical care.Even with those challenges, DRC possesses significantly stronger outbreak response capaci- ty today than it did a decade ago. Laboratory networks, trained emergency teams, surveil- lance systems, and international response part- nerships are now far more established.The larger concern may therefore not be institu- tional knowledge alone, but whether authorities can contain transmission quickly enough in a region defined by mobility and instability.That issue becomes important for neighbouring countries including Zimbabwe. At first glance, Zimbabwe may appear geographically distant from the epicentre in eastern DRC. The migra- tion and regional mobility picture, however, tells a more interconnected story.According to Zimbabwe’s latest 2025 Fourth Quarter Migration Report, the number of arriv- ing visitors whose country of last permanent residence was DRC stood at 18,134 during the October to December 2025 period. Uganda accounted for 393 arrivals during the same quarter. Those figures were lower than the equivalent quarter in 2024, where arrivals from DRC stood at 30,871 while Uganda accounted for 750 arrivals.The numbers themselves do not suggest unusually high migration pressure. DRC remains a major regional transit and trading corridor, while Uganda maintains important business, academic, religious, and diplomatic links within the continent.The deeper issue is mobility itself. Cross border outbreaks become difficult to manage when large numbers of people move through multiple transit systems before symptoms become visible. Ebola’s incubation period can range from two to twenty one days. That means infect- ed individuals may travel across borders before developing severe symptoms.Zimbabwe therefore faces indirect exposure risks through regional mobility networks rather than immediate proximity alone. The issue also carries a strong human dimension. Thousands of Zimbabweans live, work, study, conduct busi- ness, or participate in humanitarian activities across various African countries including DRC and Uganda. Many travel home periodically for family visits, funerals, holidays, or business purposes.As concern around the outbreak grows, authori- ties may eventually increase screening mea- sures at airports and border posts, particularly for travellers arriving from affected regions or transit hubs. That would not necessarily imply border closures. The World Health Organization has specifically advised against imposing unnecessary travel and trade restrictions because such measures can disrupt econo- mies, complicate humanitarian response efforts, and encourage unofficial border cross- ings that weaken surveillance.Zimbabwe’s likely response would instead focus on preparedness measures. Those could include intensified thermal screening at ports of entry, enhanced surveillance systems, rapid isolation protocols, public awareness cam- paigns, laboratory preparedness, and coordina- tion with regional health bodies.The country already possesses some institu- tional memory from the COVID 19 pandemic and previous regional disease surveillance efforts. Public health authorities are therefore not starting from zero. Even so, the outbreak exposes broader questions about Africa’s health security architecture.One of the most important lessons from recent outbreaks is that regional disease prepared- ness remains only as strong as the weakest health system within interconnected mobility corridors. An outbreak in eastern DRC rapidly becomes a regional concern because of migra- tion, trade, refugee flows, mining activity, and transport networks connecting multiple coun- tries. The situation also highlights persistent inequalities in global p h a r m a c e u t i c a l preparedness.The world now possess- es vaccines and thera- peutics for some Ebola strains. Rare variants such as Bundibugyo virus, however, still lack licensed vaccines despite previous outbreaks being record- ed as far back as 2007 in Uganda and 2012 in DRC. That reality reflects broader structural chal- lenges in global health research financing.Diseases affecting lower income regions often receive less commercial pharmaceutical invest- ment unless they pose direct risks to wealthier economies.Ebola Fears IntensifyRegional Health Risks GrowT*To Page 15

Z*From Page 14 ment unless they pose direct risks to wealthi- er economies. The current outbreak therefore demonstrates how scientific preparedness gaps remain deeply uneven across diseases and regions.For Zimbabwe, the outbreak arrives at an important moment domestically. The country is currently pursuing Universal Health Coverage reforms, expanding healthcare workforce plan- ning, and strengthening disease preparedness institutions such as the Zimbabwe National Public Health Institute launched in late 2025.Regional outbreaks such as Ebola provide real time reminders of why those investments matter. Strong surveillance systems, laboratory capacity, emergency coordination frameworks, and healthcare workforce resilience become critically important during periods of regional health instability. Countries with weak prepared- ness systems often find themselves reacting late once outbreaks have already crossed borders.Public communication will also matter signifi- cantly. Ebola outbreaks frequently trigger fear, misinformation, and stigma. During previous outbreaks in Africa, rumours and distrust some- times undermined response efforts more severely than the virus itself. Authorities there- fore face the challenge of maintaining public vigilance without encouraging panic.The current outbreak does not suggest immi- nent widespread danger for Zimbabwean com- munities. The risk to the average citizen remains relatively low under present circum- stances. Healthcare workers, border authori- ties, surveillance teams, and policymakers nevertheless cannot afford complacency. The WHO declaration reflects concern not because the outbreak is already uncontrollable, but because delayed containment in fragile regions can rapidly transform local outbreaks into broader regional emergencies.The coming weeks will therefore be critical. If surveillance, contact tracing, and isolation sys- tems operate effectively, the outbreak may still be contained before wider regional escalation occurs. If insecurity, mobility, and mistrust disrupt response efforts, the risk of prolonged transmission will increase substantially.For southern African countries including Zimba- bwe, the situation serves as a reminder that public health threats rarely remain confined within national borders for long.The AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 15

*To Page 17The AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 16 marketshe Zimbabwean alcoholic beverages market has, in the space of a 2-years, moved from one of the lowest-consump- tion markets in Sub-Saharan Africa to a position approaching the African continental average. The FY2026 results from Delta Corporation Lim- ited and African Distillers Limited, taken togeth- er with reasonable estimates for unrecorded supply, imply per-adult pure alcohol consump- tion of approximately 4.82 litres against the African regional benchmark of 4.9 litres and the global average of 5.5 litres. The trajectory reflects several convergent forces that encom- pass formal-channel recapture from informal supply, currency stabilisation that has unlocked discretionary spending, and the gradual liberali- sation of consumption norms among urbanising younger Zimbabweans. The strategic question facing Delta and Afdis is how to position FY2027, FY2028, and generally, future capacity expansion to capture the consumption runway that this trajectory now implies.Zimbabwe in Global Context:The 4.82 litre per capita level derived from recent disclosures places Zimbabwe materially above the WHO 2019 reading of 3.11 litres and at 88% of the global average. Against the broad- er Southern African Development Community cluster, Zimbabwe sits below South Africa which is at 7.21 litres, Botswana at 5.98 litres and the SADC heavyweight Tanzania at 7.81 litres on recorded consumption. The cluster pattern is informative for forecasting purposes as SADC's heaviest-consuming markets sit between 7 and 9 litres on recorded measures and between 9 and 12 litres once unrecorded supply is added. Zimbabwe's structural ceiling in our view, set by the cultural and religious composition of the adult population, lies at approximately 7.5 litres per adult.The contrast with European and frontier-devel- oped markets defines the upper bound of the runway. The Czech Republic at 13.29 litres, Latvia at 13.19 litres and Germany at 12.79 litres represent the global highest. These mar- kets have permissive cultural norms, mature retail and on-trade channels, and centuries of integration of beer and wine into daily social life. Replication of those consumption levels in Zimbabwe is structurally implausible within any reasonable forecast horizon. The relevant com- parator for Zimbabwe is the SADC mean of approximately 5.5 to 6.0 litres, which the country is now within reach of for the first time in the past two decades.Delta and Afdis: The Architecture of Formal Supply:Delta supplies an estimated 89% of Zimbabwe's formal alcoholic beverages market by volume, with 7.77 million hectolitres of lager and sorghum beer in FY2026. The composition is 41% lager and 59% sorghum, corresponding to the dual cultural inheritance of Zimbabwean consumption, a Western-style commercial beer category anchored by Castle Lager and Carling Black Label, and a traditional opaque beer cate- gory anchored by Chibuku. Afdis, in which Delta holds a controlling stake, supplies the wines, spirits and ready-to-drink categories with FY2026 revenue of US$93.2 million across a significant portion of beverage volumes.The combined architecture covers approximate- ly 95% of formal sector pure alcohol supply to Zimbabwean consumers. The residual 5% com- prises imported lagers under SAB and Heinek- en distribution, regional spirits brands outside the Afdis licensing portfolio, and the smaller sorghum operations led by Ingwebu Breweries in Bulawayo. Concentration at this level means that any expansion in per-adult consumption translates almost mechanically into Delta and Afdis revenue, subject to the cultural and demo- graphic constraints that shape demand.Societal Norms:Often missed in most analysis, the single largest determinant of per-capita alcohol consumption across countries is the religious and cultural framework that governs whether consumption is socially sanctioned. Muslim-majority countries cluster between 0.01 and 1.5 litres per adult regardless of income level, with Saudi Arabia at near-zero and Yemen at 0.03 litres. Catho- lic-majority Mediterranean countries cluster between 7 and 12 litres. Orthodox Christian Eastern Europe sits at the global frontier of 11 to 14 litres. Protestant-majority countries vary widely depending on denominational composi- tion, with evangelical-restrictive traditions sup- pressing consumption and mainline-Protestant traditions permitting it.Zimbabwe is 84% Christian by self-identifica- tion, with denominational composition splitting roughly 70% Protestant, 8% Catholic and 7% non-denominational. Within the Protestant majority, the Apostolic and Pentecostal tradi- tions specifically prohibit alcohol use among an estimated 2.5 to 3 million adherents. This places approximately 25 to 30% of the adult population in an effective “abstention” category. Per-adult consumption levels therefore understate inten- sity among the drinking population by a factor of 1.4 to 1.5. The 4.82 litre national average corre- sponds to approximately 6.8 to 7.2 litres per drinking adult, comparable to Botswana on a like-for-like basis.The abstention layer establishes a cultural ceil- ing on national consumption. Volume expansion within the formal sector can come from three sources which are deeper share of wallet among existing drinkers, recovery from grey-market and informal supply, and the gradu- al reduction in abstention rates as urbanisation and generational change reshape religious adherence as we have been witnessing in recent years. Nonetheless, the first two sources are shorter-term and quantitatively significant. The third operates over a generational times- cale. Income, Geography and Availability:Income elasticity of alcohol demand within a permissive cultural framework is approximately 0.5 to 0.7, meaning a 10% rise in real dispos- able income drives a 5 to 7% rise in alcohol con- sumption. Zimbabwe's current income environ- ment is relatively supportive, that is, record tobacco marketing receipts, gold averaging US$4,180 per ounce, diaspora remittances firm- ing, and 94% of formal trade now dollarised. The currency stability that took hold from Sep- tember 2024 has allowed consumers to plan discretionary spending with confidence for the first time since 2018.Geography reinforces the income effect. Zimba- bwe's urbanisation rate of 38% is rising at approximately 0.5 percentage points annually, and urban consumers drink at materially higher per-capita rates than rural consumers across every SADC market. Availability has improved through Delta's distribution rebuild and Afdis' restored production capacity. The combined effect across income, geography and availability has compressed what would have been a multi-year recovery into a shorter period of step-change growth.Companies’ Strategic Positioning:Delta's FY2027 and FY2028 proposed capacity expansion programmes position the group to capture the runway that the consumption trajec- tory implies. The Belmont brewhouse replace- ment, the Southerton filtration upgrades and the Delta Eyes Demand SurgeZimbabwe Drinks MoreT

airibord Holdings has reported 26% volume growth for the first quarter ended 31 March 2026, with revenue reaching USD 39.40 million, a 26% increase on the same period in the prior year. The number looks like a demand story, yet it is a supply unlock story, one in which previously constrained production capacity, once expanded through deliberate capital allocation, released volume that con- sumer demand was already ready to absorb. The distinction matters because it changes what the Q1 result tells investors about the quarters ahead.The capital that produced the Q1 number was deployed in two tranches. The first was the com- missioning of the Chipinge Steri plant in Decem- ber 2025, which supported the 15% volume growth in Liquid Milks, a cate- gory that accounts for 24% of the product mix. The second was the Q4 2025 investment in bottled Cascade and Pfuko maheu, which contributed directly to the 29% growth in the Beverages category, now representing 67% of the prod- uct mix. In both cases, the Q1 2026 volume growth was not the result of something that happened in Q1, it was the return on capital deployed one quarter earlier, now arriving in the revenue line.The dairy and beverages group's strongest quarterly volume performance in recent periods reflects deliberate capital investment made in prior quarters. The 40% export decline made to service domestic demand tells an important story about where margin is being prioritised.The commissioning of the Chipinge Steri plant was the most significant single capacity addi- tion, supporting the 15% increase in Liquid Milks volume by providing sterilised milk processing capacity that enables longer shelf life products to reach markets further from the production point.The analytical foundation of Dairibord's Q1 performance is the relationship between capital investments made in prior periods and volume growth delivered in the current one. This is not a demand story in isolation, but shows a supply unlock story in which previously constrained production capacity, once expanded through deliberate capital allocation, releases volume that consumer demand was already ready to absorb. The Chipinge Steri plant, commissioned in December 2025, supports the Liquid Milks cate- gory which accounts for 24% of the product mix. The 15% volume growth in this category reflect- ed the plant's contribution in its first full quarter of operation.Liquid Milks is a category where distribution reach is constrained by shelf life, sterilised milk products with longer shelf life can penetrate geographies that fresh milk cannot reach reliably. The Chipinge plant, positioned in a different geographic location from the group's existing facilities, extends the distribution foot- print in ways that raw capacity numbers do not fully capture.The Q4 2025 investments in bottled Cascade and Pfuko maheu contributed to the 29% growth in the Beverages category, which now represents 67% of the product mix. Cascade bottled water and Pfuko maheu are both catego- ries where packaging format and production capacity have been identified as constraints on volume, and the Q4 investment addressed those constraints directly. The 29% Beverages growth in Q1 2026 is the return on that investment arriving one quarter after the capital was deployed.The Foods segment's 31% growth, underpinned by strong demand particularly in the yoghurt category, reflects both improved product avail- ability and consumer demand that the group characterises as robust. Yoghurt is a higher-val- ue dairy segment that benefits from increasing consumer income and nutritional awareness, and the group's performance in this category suggests it is well-positioned in a segment with structural growth characteristics.One of the most significant aspects in Dairi- bord's Q1 update was the 40% year-on-year decline in export volumes, which the group explicitly attributed to a strategic decision to prioritise servicing increased domestic demand. This was a deliberate margin and capacity allo- cation decision.Export volumes for a Zimbabwean food manu- facturer typically carry different margin charac- teristics than domestic sales. Export sales are denominated in foreign curren- cy, which is attractive for work- ing capital and balance sheet management, but they also carry higher logistics costs, longer collection cycles, and the complexity of multiple regulatory environments, including 30% surrender rules. When domestic demand is strong and production capacity is constrained, the rational allocation is to serve the high- er-margin, lower-complexity domestic market first.The 40% export decline is therefore a consequence of the same demand strength that produced the 26% volume growth number. If the group's total production capacity had been unlimited, it would have grown both domestic and export volumes simultaneous- ly. Since capacity is finite, the decision to prioritise domestic demand is both commercially rational and consistent with the group's strategic focus on Zimbabwe's consum- er market.The question going into Q2 and beyond is whether the ongoing capacity expansion programme, including the investments refer- enced for the period ahead, will reach a point where domestic demand is fully served and export capacity can be rebuilt. The group states it anticipates continued growth momentum into Q2, supported by improved product availability following recent capacity enhancements. If that improved availability reduces the domestic-ver- sus-export trade-off, export volumes should recover as a secondary benefit of the capacity expansion programme.Dairibord Unlocks Value Chipinge Steri Plant ImpactThe AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 17 Afdis US$8 million packaging line collectively unlock approximately 25 to 30% incremental volume capacity over a 24-month horizon. The investment quantum is calibrated to the structur- al ceiling rather than to indefinite growth, which is a reasonable posture for a market with a cultural cap on consumption.Nonetheless, the generational gradual liberali- sation is the long-duration component of the volume story. Urban Zimbabweans aged 18 to 30 are migrating away from the conservative religious traditions that constrain consumption among older cohorts. The category dynamics already reflect this, as RTD volumes at Afdis grew 62% in FY2026 against spirits at 34%, and RTD is specifically targeted at younger, urban, female-skewed consumers who would have been outside the formal alcohol customer base a decade ago. As this cohort matures and the older abstaining cohort shrinks through natural demographic turnover, the effective drinking population expands, which lifts the ceiling rather than the rate of consumption against it.For Delta's regional strategy, the implication is that Zimbabwe has become a higher-priority growth market than South Africa, where consumption is near saturation, or Zambia, where macroeconomic constraints suppress demand. The reallocation of capital toward Zimba- bwe-specific capacity is the most rational response to the post-FY2026 demand environ- ment, and Delta’s disclosed strategy is consis- tent with that analytical framework. The FY2027 reporting period will test whether the volume trajectory established in FY2026 is durable or whether the surge reflects once-off recapture dynamics that moderate as the formal sector saturates its addressable share of the existing drinking population.*From Page 16D

CZM frican Distillers Limited (Afdis), a ZSE-listed company whose core busi- ness involves the manufacture, distribu- tion, and marketing of branded wines, ciders, and spirits for the Zimbabwean market, as well as for export, reported its strongest topline and bottom-line performance to date in the year ended 31 March 2026. At a time when many Zimbabwean consumer-facing businesses con- tinue operating under liquidity fragmentation, elevated operating costs and increasingly selective consumer spending behaviour, Afdis capitalized on accelerating consumer demand, improved product availability, stronger route-to-market execution and a broad recovery in formal sector spending patterns. Aggregate revenue at USD93.23 million for the period under review, was 56% ahead of prior corresponding period, fuelled by a 50% expan- sion in total volumes across all three product categories, while the fixed-cost manufacturing platform converted that scale gain into a 118% surge in operating income to USD12.22 million. Profit after tax settled at USD7.67 million, a 50% increase that, while strong, understates the underlying momentum because of a USD2.30 million adverse swing in the net foreign exchange adjustment from a positive USD1.44 million in FY2025 to a negative USD0.86 million in FY2026, and a sharp rise in the effective tax rate from 17.7% to 28.1%. Strip those two tran- sient headwinds away and the base business is compounding at a rate that even the current share price has yet to fully price in.Notwithstanding, it is imperative to understand the performance of categories driving the aggregate performance. Spirits, the historical anchor of the portfolio with brands including Gold Blend, Cape Velvet and Smirnoff under licence, improved by 35% to USD44.13 million on a 34% volume gain, confirming that the formal-channel recapture from grey-market suppression was the primary mechanism rather than organic demand expansion. The Ready-to-Drink segment was the standout performer, posting 78% revenue growth to USD42.81 million on a 62% volume gain, which implies an approximately 10% improvement in realised price per unit and reflects the discre- tionary trade-up dynamic that becomes avail- able to AFDIS when consumer disposable income firms in parallel with the suppression of cheaper informal substitutes. Wines, the small- est of the three categories at USD4.48 million in FY2025, delivered an 85% growth to USD8.29 million on 57% volume growth, an outturn that materially exceeds what organic category growth could explain and points to a step-change in distribution depth within the Heineken Beverages-licensed Nederburg, Drostdy-Hof and Two Oceans portfolios. The rotation of revenue mix toward RTDs, now 45.9% of the aggregate against 40.2% in FY2025, is structurally positive for blended mar- gins since the format embeds packaging-level branding into each serve, lifting value-add per litre even before any improvement in cost absorption.At the margin level, Afdis leveraged on opera- tions rather than pricing power. Gross margin expanded 145 basis points to 28.6%, despite being constrained by the rising cost of imported raw materials and finished goods sourced predominantly from the Heineken Beverages supply chain, where related-party purchases jumped from USD6.36 million in FY2025 to USD17.48 million in FY2026 as volumes surged. Furthermore, distribution costs went up 43%, administrative expenses by 21%, and other operating expenses up 37%, all materially below the 56% revenue growth, delivering the 380-basis-point operating margin expansion from 9.3% to 13.1%. The implication is that Afdis’ cost structure carries substantial unutilised operating leverage at current scale, and the USD8 million packag- ing line scheduled for commissioning in FY2027 will add throughput capacity without proportion- ally expanding the fixed cost envelope. Below operating income, the negative currency swing and the elevated tax rate account for nearly all of the gap between the 118% operating income growth and the 49.7% PAT growth, underscor- ing that the base business is operationally stronger than the headline profit advance sug- gests.The balance sheet absorbed USD4.40 million of capital expenditure during the year, lifting gross PPE to USD8.76 million from USD5.33 million, while reducing short-term borrowings by USD1.39 million and narrowing the bank over- draft from USD2.97 million to USD0.77 million. These competing movements were funded by operating cash generation that improved by 88% to USD11.61 million, a cash conversion ratio of approximately 1.5 times profit after tax that is the single strongest signal of earnings quality in the result. Net gearing was at a con- servative 18.4%, and the investment-to-depre- ciation ratio of approximately 4.6 times estab- lishes that AFDIS is in a capacity-expansion phase rather than a maintenance posture. The inventory build of 43.7% against revenue growth of 56.1% confirms a tighter invento- ry-to-sales ratio than the prior period, an efficiency gain that partially self-funds the work- ing capital requirements of the volume ramp.Notably, the Company disclosed contingent liabilities, where it carries a ZIMRA assessment of USD1.84 million covering FY2019 to FY2022, against which USD1.82 million has already been paid under the pay-now-argue-later princi- ple and sits as a current tax asset. The net residual exposure is minimal at approximately USD0.02 million, with a further USD0.59 million of penalty and interest contingency that has not been provisioned. The legal backdrop following the Delta versus ZIMRA Constitutional Court ruling is adverse, but the financial impact is largely absorbed, and the P&L risk is compara- tively contained.One of the outstanding takeaways from Afdis’ FY2026 is that the performance was one of a volume-led revenue growth, fixed-cost absorp- tion at the operating line, a cash conversion ratio that validates earnings quality, and a capi- tal programme that is fully funded from internal generation with conservative headroom. The combination of these four characteristics is an indicator of a structurally compounding consum- er franchise, not a cyclically rebounding one, and distinguishes AFDIS from the broader ZSE consumer industrials universe where curren- cy-driven earnings recoveries have often proved less durable than they appeared at first sight.Nonetheless, the central question is whether the volume growth of 50% is durable or whether it represents a one-cycle recapture that will normalise lower in FY2027. The evidence points toward partial durability. The formal-channel recapture from grey-market suppression is mechanically complete once the informal supply is significantly suppressed in the market, and volume growth in future will therefore need to come from either underlying category expan- sion or the incremental RTD capacity that the new packaging line unlocks. The RTD category dynamics are structurally supportive because the format commands higher value-add per litre and is growing its share of the revenue mix in a way that lifts blended margins independent of pricing, estab- lishing an asymmetrically positive base case for FY2027 even if the volume growth rate norma- lises to a more modest level. However, the binary execution risk is the USD8 million pack- aging line which, if delivered on schedule, the share will have a credible re-rating pathway toward the Delta Corporation parent's earnings multiple, and if delayed or over-budget, the FY2027 performance will be capacity-con- strained at the FY2026 production envelope and the dividend trajectory will carry a working capital overhang.On the ZSE, Afdis trades at 7.5 times FY2026 earnings, 2.7 times NAV, and a 3.2% dividend yield. The price-to-earnings multiple is at a discount to the Delta parent multiple of approxi- mately 8 to 9 times, a gap partially justified by the smaller float, lower liquidity, and higher earnings volatility of the subsidiary, but one that closes rapidly if the FY2027 trading update con- firms that volumes and margins are holding. The return on equity of approximately 40% achieved in FY2026 supports a sustainable price-to-book multiple of 3.5 to 4.0 times on standard valua- tion basis, implying a fair value range of approx- imately 62 to 70 US cents against the current price of 47 cents and establishing that the share, while no longer a deep-value buy, retains meaningful upside for investors willing to carry the packaging line execution risk. The FY2026 result earns Afdis a place on any forward-look- ing ZSE consumer portfolio at current levels, with the packaging line commissioning update in the first half of FY2027 as the next material re-rating catalyst.Afdis Expands Into ScaleConsumer Demand AcceleratesThe AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 18 A

XAFCA Limited, a ZSE-listed cable manufacturer that has supplied Zimbabwe’s transmission and distribu- tion infrastructure since 1947, recorded a strong rebound in the six months period ended 31 March 2026. Aggregate revenue climbed by 24% against prior year to US$22.22 million, from US$17.88 million, while operating profit more than doubled to US$2.61 million from US$1.13 million, and attrib- utable earnings tripled to US$1.83 million from US$587,599 in the corre- sponding period. Overall volume growth of 14% com- bined with a 13% surge in production volumes confirms that the underlying manufacturing plat- form is now executing at materially higher capacity utilisation, while gross margin expan- sion reflects the favourable mix shift toward higher-value retail and export business that has progressively displaced depressed utilities offtake. Operating margin grew to 11.8% from 6.3%, and net margin to 8.2% from 3.3%, which reflects operating leverage as scale and fixed-cost absorption deliver in a manufacturing business that has pierced the breakeven resh- old by a comfortable margin.Retail volumes grew 16% on the back of the renewed partnership distribution model and intensified customer service through factory shops, commercial volumes held marginally above the prior year at 2%, and exports strengthened by 109% as the Group accessed Malawi, Rwanda and Mozambique through a new consignment-stock distribution structure. However, utilities volumes declined 17% as the offtake from ZETDC and adjacent power distri- bution entities was constrained by liquidity rather than demand. Copper and aluminium volumes recovered 16% and 10% respectively, reflecting both the favourable global commodity price environment and the substitution of imported finished goods by locally manufac- tured product as smuggling enforcement begins to bite. Revenue from customers in Zimbabwe stood at US$20.64 million, with external cus- tomer revenue of US$1.58 million representing 7.1% of group sales against 6.2% in the prior comparable period.Notably, the operational achievement is more impressive when the production environment is properly contextualised. CAFCA lost 324 hours of production to voltage fluctuations during the period under review, against 99 hours in the prior comparable period, a more than threefold deterioration in grid power reliability that the Group nonetheless absorbed whilst delivering volume growth across every channel except utilities. Nonetheless, the Company implement- ed a structural response. A solar plant commis- sioned in March is expected to contribute approximately 30% of CAFCA’s power require- ments going forward, financed through a US$1 million facility at 11% per annum over a 36-month tenure that preserves balance sheet conservatism. Capital expenditure of US$894,000 during the period represents an order-of-magnitude increase on the US$206,614 invested in HY25, with the addi- tional US$1.39 million authorised by the Board for the second half of the year, indicating that management is entering a sustained reinvest- ment cycle aimed at capacity, energy indepen- dence and quality consistency.The trajectory in context is one of methodical recovery from the operational and currency distortions that characterised the 2018 to 2022 cycle. CAFCA’s functional currency conversion to United States Dollars from 1 October 2024 simplified the reporting framework and removed the IAS 21 distortion that complicated earlier period comparisons. Additionally, the Group restored profitability in FY2024 and FY2025 on the back of disciplined cost management and selective channel investment, and the HY2026 performance confirms that the operating model has now exited the survival posture that the post-dollarisation transition demanded. Total equity attributable to shareholders improved to US$30.90 million from US$29.07 million at 30 September 2025, with retained earnings growth of US$1.83 million reflecting the Board’s deci- sion to defer interim distribution given cash flow considerations and the active capital programme.Interestingly, since Cafca is a vertical monopoly in Zimbabwe against other listed companies, a more instructive comparison would be against Metal Fabricators of Zambia Plc, which trades on the Lusaka Securities Exchange and is 75% controlled by Reunert Limited of South Africa. Zamefa is the largest cable manufacturer in the SADC region, with FY2025 revenue of ZMW3.45 billion equivalent to approximately US$128 million and exports accounting for 74% of sales. Zamefa’s most recently disclosed HY2025 result, for the six months ended 31 March 2025, recorded revenue of approximate- ly US$61 million, operating profit of US$2.7 million and attributable earnings of US$2.1 million. On a like-for-like six-month basis, CAFCA at US$22.22 million is roughly one-third the scale of Zamefa on reve- nue, but the margin profile is markedly superior. CAFCA’s 11.8% operating margin compares with Zamefa’s 4.5%, and the 8.2% net margin compares with Zamefa’s 3.5%. The differ- ential reflects three structur- al factors. First, CAFCA’s revenue base is heavily weighted to Zimbabwe domestic infrastructure and retail channels, which com- mand higher unit margins than Zamefa’s export-domi- nated copper rod and con- ductor business. Second, Zamefa carries materially higher working capital inten- sity given the export logistics cycle and copper price pass-through through the supply chain. Third, CAFCA’s exceptionally conservative capital structure at 2.8% gearing contrasts with Zame- fa’s heavier leverage and 33.8% equity-to-as- sets ratio, reflecting differing capital allocation philosophies even within the same broader ATC corporate family.In our opinion, CAFCA’s HY2026 performance establishes the most coherent operating tem- plate the Group has reported since the multi-currency era. Revenue at US$22.22 million, operating profit at US$2.61 million and attributable earnings at US$1.83 million collec- tively triple-confirm that the operating model has matured into a durable cash-generative busi- ness notwithstanding the deteriorated grid power environment. For ZSE investors, the prin- cipal observable variables for the second half are three. First, whether the utilities channel can convert backlog orders into deliveries given that liquidity at ZETDC remains constrained by tariff and collection dynamics. Second, whether the solar plant delivers the targeted 30% power contribution and whether the resulting cost saving falls to the operating margin or is absorbed by reinvestment. Third, whether the export expansion into Malawi, Rwanda and Mozambique can sustain the 109% growth rate or moderates as the distribution model matures. The balance sheet’s 2.8% gearing and conser- vative working capital posture position CAFCA among the most prudently capitalised manufac- turers listed on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange.CAFCA HY2026 ReboundMargins and Capex RiseThe AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 19 C

ZATrump traded over $50 million in 'Magnifi- cent 7' stocks last quarter, loading up on Apple and Google and selling TeslaPresident Trump made 94 different trades of “Magnificent Seven” stocks in the first quarter of 2026, a new ethics disclosure shows, executing millions of dollars in transactions even as he was meeting with and often promoting these top tech companies.The trades were valued at between $50 million and $70 million across 64 buy orders and 30 stock sales.The president, on net, loaded up on Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG), while selling more Tesla stock than he bought, a Yahoo Finance analysis found. His account also exe- cuted more than a dozen transactions each of Nvidia (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META), Micro- soft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN), rounding out the Magnificent Seven. – nytimesSpaceX IPO Adds Second Musk Stock. It’s a Problem for TeslaFor years, there was only one way for mom-and-pop investors to buy into Elon Musk’s vision: shares of Tesla Inc. That’s about to change — and it’s a serious risk for Tesla inves- tors.With the imminent initial public offering of Space Exploration Technologies Corp., better known as SpaceX, the market will have an additional entry point for the “Muskonomy.” Wall Street pros see investors’ attention and capital inevita- bly being siphoned away from Musk’s elec- tric-vehicle maker and to his shiny new toy.“This cannot be a positive for Tesla,” said Joe Gilbert, portfolio manager at Integrity Asset Management. “We believe that Musk’s focus will predominantly be lasered on SpaceX. Musk has proved to be able to balance multiple initiatives simultaneously in the past, but it feels like SpaceX is his new baby at the expense of Tesla.” - BloombergRussian rouble at over three-year high against yuan ahead of Putin's visit to ChinaThe Russian rouble hit its strongest level against China's yuan, Russia's most traded foreign currency, since February 2023 on Tues- day ahead of President Vladimir Putin's ‌visit to China with new business deals on the agenda.Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov said ahead ‌of the visit that \"practically all\" payments in the $240 billion trade between the two coun- tries were now made in yuan and rouble, which shields them from Western sanctions.The Moscow Exchange data showed that the rouble strengthened to 10.45 against the yuan. Against the U.S. dollar the rouble crossed to the stronger side of the 72 mark on Tuesday for the first time since March 2023, LSEG data showed.The rouble was also up 1.4% against the dollar and by 1.6% against the yuan ‌in Tuesday's trad- ing session, with an increase ⁠of 12% against the dollar and of 11% against the yuan since April 1, tracking the rise in oil prices and Russia's energy revenues. - reutersWhite-hot semiconductor stocks like Sandisk and Micron are now in meltdown modeWhat goes up must come down — and that’s on prime display right now in one of the hottest trades of 2026.What we are watching: On Monday, the Phila- delphia Semiconductor Sector Index (^SOX) — aka the SOX — just had its biggest two-day downdraft since the lows in late March.The bloodletting is happening across momen- tum names that have led the semi stock bubble this year. Micron (MU) and Sandisk (SNDK) have each tanked 14% over the past five ses- sions. Intel (INTC) is down by 17%. AMD (AMD) is off by 8%. - cnbcSouth Africa’s Pick n Pay raises $282 million in Boxer Retail stake saleSouth Africa’s Pick n Pay on Tuesday said it has raised 4.7 billion rand ($282.4 million) by selling a stake in its unit, Boxer Retail, aided by strong demand for the retailer’s best-performing asset.Pick n Pay sold about 57.3 million Boxer shares, representing roughly 12.5% of the discount grocery unit.Pick n Pay retains a 53.1% stake in Boxer, maintaining control.The shares were sold at 82 rand per share, a 3.2% premium to the 30-day volume-weighted average price as of Monday.The deal was executed through an accelerated bookbuild to institutional investors.Pick n Pay said proceeds will be used to support turnaround plan and growth strategy.Pick n Pay had listed Boxer in 2024 as part of a plan to lower its debt and turn around its under- performing core supermarkets business. - wsjAnantara Zanzibar attracts growing Middle East investor interestZanzibar’s luxury real estate and hospitality market is witnessing a growing wave of investor interest from the Middle East, as high-net-worth buyers increasingly look beyond traditional mar- kets in search of stable, lifestyle-driven invest- ment destinations.At the centre of that trend is the Anantara Zanzi- bar Resort and Residences, a flagship develop- ment by Infinity Developments, which industry observers say is rapidly emerging as one of East Africa’s most sought-after luxury invest- ment projects.Developers say enquiries and commitments from Middle Eastern investors have risen signifi- cantly over recent months, driven partly by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in parts of the region and a broader shift toward safe-haven investments tied to hospitality, wellness and premium lifestyle assets. - DWEni considers third floating LNG platform off MozambiqueItalian energy group Eni is considering deploy- ing a third Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) platform offshore Mozambique, a com- pany spokesperson said.Eni took a final investment decision on its second platform, Coral North, in October last year. That facility will double Mozambique’s LNG output to over 7 million metric tons per annum once operational in 2028.The Eni spokesperson told Reuters the Rovuma Basin holds significant gas reserves that creat- ed opportunities for new developments.- MT NewswiresMortgage rates surge to highest level since JulyGrowing concern over the trajectory of the Iran war has bond yields rising and mortgage rates following suit.The average rate on the 30-year fixed loan rose 7 basis points Tuesday to 6.75%, according to Mortgage News Daily. That is the highest level since July 31. Rates are now up 33 basis points in just the past 10 days and are 46 basis points higher than their recent April low of 6.29%.That April drop came after a sharp spike in rates at the start of the war, when the rate jumped from 5.99% at the start of March to 6.64% by the end of the month.“Bonds are telling politicians to get serious about ending the war or face increasingly dire consequences,” wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily. - Retail Insight NetworkStartup backed by American Eagle CEO reaches unicorn status in latest funding roundRadar, a startup backed by American Eagle CEO Jay Schottenstein that helps retailers manage in-store inventory and cut back on theft and lost merchandise, reached unicorn status with its latest funding round, CNBC has learned. The company, founded in 2013 by Spencer Hewett, raised $170 million at a valuation of over $1 billion in its series B funding round, which was co-led by Gideon Strategic Partners and Nimble Partners with participation from Align Ventures. The company also counts Schottenstein among its investors. He said American Eagle was the first retailer to implement Radar’s technology across its stores. - reutersStarbucks to lay off 300 U.S. employees, shutter some regional support officesStarbucks on Friday announced another round of corpo- rate layoffs and said it plans to shutter some regional support offices as part of its ongoing turnaround.The company said it will cut 300 U.S. jobs, adding it has started a review of its international corporate workforce. The layoffs do not affect its coffeehouse employees. - Bloomberg.Target is set to report first-quarter earnings, offer read on consumerTarget is expected to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings Wednesday amid a complicated envi- ronment for the consumer.The retailer is in the midst of a turnaround process under CEO Michael Fiddelke. - cnbcSouth Africa sets higher steel import duties to shield struggling local sectorSouth Africa has set higher import duties on certain steel products, ranging from 10% to 30%, to defend the struggling industry in the face of weak demand and rising ⁠imports led by China.ArcelorMittal South Africa and others have shut some mills and the country’s International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) last year recommended that the government take emer- gency action to defend the sector, proposing import duties starting at 10% on steel products.The duties announced in the government notice dated May 15 will apply to products such as flat-rolled iron or non-alloy steel, as well as bars, rods, tubes and pipes. Previously, South Africa applied tariffs of zero to up to 15% on these products. investing.comIIF cuts South Africa 2026 growth forecast as Middle East conflict bitesSouth Africa’s improving economic outlook has been clouded by the Middle East conflict, which is pushing up energy costs and complicating monetary policy, the Institute of International Finance said on Tuesday.The IIF cut its 2026 growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.7% previously. - cnbcafricaBrazil central bank flags concern over long-term inflation expectations driftBrazil's central bank ‌monetary policy director ‌Nilton David said on Tuesday the bank is trou- bled by inflation expectations drifting further ‌from its ⁠3% target - particularly for 2028, ⁠a hori- zon expected to be less sensitive to current shocks.Speaking at ‌an event hosted by Santander, David said the economy is no longer growing above ‌potential, and policymakers will keep monetary policy ‌in restrictive territory until they are confident inflation is converging to the ‌goal.- ApnewsBusiness Around The World The AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 21

Putin heads to Beijing days after Trump in test of China’s balancing actRussian President Vladimir Putin is set to arrive in Beijing on Tuesday for a two-day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, visiting an ally that barely had time to clear the ceremonial trappings it laid out for U.S. President Donald Trump just days earlier.The summit, scheduled for May 19-20, marks the second time the Chinese and Russian lead- ers have met in the past year, as Beijing seeks to manage ties with Washington and Moscow while positioning itself as a pivotal power in global diplomacy. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 left Moscow effectively isolated and heavily reliant on Beijing for trade under West- ern sanctions.“We have very serious expectations for this visit,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Monday, describing the agenda as advancing the two countries’ “privileged and strategic partnership.” - Bbc.MSF accuses all South Sudan forces of exploiting aid for military objectivesFrench aid group Medecins Sans Frontieres on Tuesday accused South Sudan’s government of blocking humanitarian access to opposi- tion-controlled areas and said all parties involved in an ongoing conflict in the impover- ished country were exploiting aid for political and military ends.Clashes between the military and fighters loyal to detained First Vice President Riek Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Army-in-Opposition (SPLA-IO) party have surged since last year, forcing tens of thousands of people to flee their homes in opposition-controlled areas.MSF said in a report that it had observed “a con- cerning trend of access blockages, recurring coercive letters and evacuation orders by the Government of South Sudan directed at civil- ians and humanitarian organisations in contest- ed and SPLA-IO controlled locations.” - Abc- news.Protests erupt over Kenya fuel price hikes, strike strands commutersProtests over fuel price hikes prompted by the Iran war erupted in several Kenyan towns on Monday, including a nationwide public transport strike that stranded commuters and forced many people to walk to work.The Transport Sector Alliance said on Sunday that vehicles affiliated with its member associa- tions would stop operating from midnight in protest at the latest price increase, while police said they would act to tackle any disruptions.Kenya’s Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority last week raised retail fuel prices by as much as 23.5% – ‌after hiking them by 24.2% last month – as the conflict in the Middle East squeezes global oil and gas supplies. - TheGuardian.Uganda’s president signs contentious law meant to curb foreign influenceUganda’s President Yoweri Museveni signed into law a contentious measure to curb foreign influence after parliament scaled back provi- sions that had drawn criticism from financial institutions over potentially hampering remit- tances and development work.The bill criminalises promotion of the “interests of a foreigner against the interests of Uganda” and bans anyone working on behalf of foreign interests from developing or implementing policy without government approval.Rights groups have said that such broad language would allow the government to crimi- nalise just about any form of political opposition. The government has accused critics of exagger- ating the bill’s impact. - Npr.US tightens entry rules over deadly Ebola outbreak in CongoThe administration of Donald Trump announced new travel and health screening measures on Monday in response to a growing Ebola outbreak in Central Africa that has killed more than 130 people.Under the new restrictions, people who do not hold U.S. passports will be barred from entering the United States if they have recently traveled to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda or South Sudan within the past 21 days.The measures were announced by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which also said enhanced health screening would be intro- duced for travelers arriving from affected areas.Health officials in Congo say at least 131 people are believed to have died in the latest outbreak. Congo’s health minister, Samuel Roger Kamba, confirmed the figure on Tuesday. Neighboring Uganda has also reported one death linked to the outbreak, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. - Aljazeera.Togo opens borders to African travelers visa-freeTogo has announced a major shift in its travel policy, granting visa-free entry to all African nationals in a move aimed at boosting regional integration and cross-border movement across the continent.The decision took effect immediately on May 18 and applies to citizens of all African countries holding valid national passports. Authorities say travelers will now be allowed to stay in Togo for up to 30 days without a visa.In a statement, Security Minister Calixte Batoss- ie Madjoulba said the move reflects Togo’s com- mitment to Pan-African cooperation, economic openness and stronger people-to-people ties.The government says it wants to position the country as a regional hub for business, trade, culture and services at the heart of Africa.Togo joins a growing number of African nations, including Rwanda, that have eased travel restrictions in support of continental mobility and integration efforts. - BBC.U.S. plans major expansion of Afrikaner refugee admissions amid political debateThe United States is set to significantly increase its refugee intake of white South Africans, in a move that has sparked international debate and diplomatic sensitivity.According to U.S. media reports, the Trump administration plans to raise the annual cap for Afrikaner refugees from around 7,500 to approximately 17,500. The expansion is part of what officials describe as an emergency reset- tlement effort, building on an existing programme that has already admitted South Africans under claims of insecurity and discrimi- nation.The policy shift comes as Washington signals a broader reassessment of refugee priorities, with officials reportedly preparing to process tens of thousands of applications over the coming fiscal year.- Reuters.Rwanda tightens border controls over deadly Ebola outbreak in DR CongoRwandan authorities have intensified health screenings and tightened movement along the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo as a deadly Ebola outbreak linked to the rare Bundibugyo strain continues to spread across the region. At least 131 people have died and 531 suspected infections have been reported in eastern DR Congo, prompting the World Health Organization to declare an international public health emergency.At border crossings near the Congolese city of Goma, health workers are checking tempera- tures and screening travellers entering Rwanda.The measures come amid fears that the outbreak could spread further across East Africa. Rwanda has also restricted cross-border movement since the outbreak was confirmed.Residents in Rwanda’s Rubavu district say the tighter controls are affecting livelihoods and disrupting trade.“We would like the government to find a solution so that we can transport our goods normally across the border while still taking precautions,” said local trader Nsengiyaremye Kigendi. - AIM.Kenya battles ant smuggling as giant har- vester queens fetch hundreds of dollarsKenya is confronting an unusual new form of wildlife trafficking: the smuggling of giant African harvester ants.Outside Nairobi, entomologist Dr Dino Martins points to one of the insects’ sprawling nests.“These are the ants who've now become world-famous because they're being traded,” he says. “Here in East Africa they are very abun- dant. They're one of our most common ants.”But what seems ordinary in the wild has become highly prized among collectors abroad. Queen ants of the species Messor cephalotes can sell for hundreds of dollars online.“When I saw the prices people were paying for these ant queens, I was completely in shock,” Martins says, attributing their popularity to their striking red colour, gentle nature and fascinating social behaviour. - Zambianobserver.Senate advances bill aimed at ending Iran war as Cassidy, after primary loss, flips to supportThe Senate advanced legislation Tuesday that seeks to force President Donald Trump to with- draw from the Iran war, as a growing number of Republicans defied the president’s direction on a conflict that has spanned well over two months.Since Trump ordered the attack on Iran at the end of February, Democrats have forced repeat- ed votes on war powers resolutions that would require him either to gain congressional approv- al or withdraw U.S. troops. Republicans had been able to muster the votes to reject those proposals, but Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy — fresh off a primary election loss in which Trump endorsed his opponent — switched sides.The 50-47 vote tally showed that a small but growing number of Republicans are willing to challenge Trump on the Iran war, even though the effort may not advance much further. Three Republicans were absent Tuesday and their votes would be enough to defeat the measure, if they maintain their stance on the war. - Polity. US Justice Department sues Connecticut over law banning masks, requiring ID for ICEThe U.S. Department of Justice filed a federal lawsuit against the state of Connecticut, Gov. Ned Lamont and Attorney General William Tong on Friday over a new state law that prohibits federal agents from wearing masks and requires them to display identification when operating in the state.The law, passed this spring by the Connecticut General Assembly and signed into law by Gov- ernor Ned Lamont, establishes “protected areas” — including schools, hospitals, social service agency facilities and houses of worship — where people cannot be arrested solely on the basis of a civil offense, such as an immigra- tion violation. It prohibits law enforcement officers from wearing masks while on duty. It bans former federal law enforcement officers who were found to be guilty of misconduct or retired during an investigation from being hired by Connecticut state or local police, and it requires police officers to complete 480 hours of training before they can be hired by state agen- cies. - Cnn Politics Around The World The AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 22

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The AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 24WeeklyCommodity PulseAluminium gained 4.2% as the war-driven energy shock escalated smelting costs across the globe. S&P Global's Materials Price Index flagged broad aluminium price revisions driven by upstream energy market disruption, with the chemicals and resins complex also sharply upward-revised. Gulf smelters in the UAE and Bahrain faced natural gas curtailments following Iranian strikes on energy infrastructure, tightening non-Chinese primary supply.LME inventory fell for a third consecutive week as buyers drew down stock ahead of feared produc- tion outages. The World Bank's April 2026 Com- modity Markets Outlook confirmed that overall commodity prices were on track for a 16% annual gain, with energy and metals leading the upside. Aluminium's dual exposure, as both an energy-in- tensive product and a key green-infrastructure metal, positioned it as a standout performer.Nickel advanced 2.6% as the US naval blockade on 13 April amplified concerns over sulphur supply chains critical for High-Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) battery precursor processing. The simultaneous tightening from Indonesia's revised RKAB quota framework, already a structural headwind to ore supply, was compounded by Hormuz-linked sulphur cost surges that raised HPAL operating economics sharply.Iran's brief announcement on 17 April that com- mercial vessels could transit the strait during the Lebanon truce period briefly sent nickel 0.8% lower intra-session, but prices recovered quickly as traders assessed the announcement as tactical rather than structural. The INSG's revised 2026 deficit forecast continues to underpin medi- um-term bullish positioning, with speculative length rebuilding from multi-month lows.Platinum rallied 5.1% to close at $2,073/oz, its highest close since mid-March, as the failure of the Islamabad Talks and the US naval blockade sharp- ened fears of extended Hormuz disruption. South African producers highlighted rising logistics premiums as vessels rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 12–14 days per voyage and increas- ing freight costs significantly.The blockade's knock-on impact on palladium refining chains bolstered platinum substitution demand in autocatalyst markets. Hydrogen sector interest in platinum group metals also provided structural support, with several European electrol- yser projects accelerating procurement timelines. The metal held above $2,000 throughout the week, establishing this level as a near-term support floor.Copper surged 4.0%, its best weekly gain since late February, as the US naval blockade imposed on 13 April severed a key supply corridor for copper cath- odes transiting toward Asia. S&P Global's April 2026 Commodity Price Watch confirmed that industrial materials prices were tracking more than 10% higher in Q1 2026, with further dou- ble-digit increases forecast for Q2 driven by war-related supply chain disruption.Prices broke decisively above $12,900/t by Friday, with strong buy-side pressure building toward the key $13,000/t psychological level. The collapse of the Islamabad Talks had already repositioned short sellers, and Iran's re-closure of the strait on 18 April confirmed the supply-shock narrative for the following week. Chilean permitting reforms provided additional longer-term supply tailwinds.Gold gained 1.4% over the week, driven by a sharp deterioration in the geopolitical outlook. The Islamabad Talks between US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the highest-level direct engage- ment between Washington and Tehran since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, collapsed without agree- ment on 12 April, extinguishing near-term hopes of a Hormuz resolution.The subsequent US naval blockade of all Iranian ports, imposed from 13 April, reignited acute safe-haven demand and lifted gold through the $4,800 mark confirmed by Fortune as of 14 April. Prices reached $4,837 by Friday 17 April. Iran's brief concession, announcing commercial vessel transit would be permitted during the Lebanon ceasefire truce, provided only a fleeting dip. Cen- tral bank accumulation and record-high WGC demand data continue to anchor structural support.Brent surged 12.0%, its largest weekly gain since early March, driven by a sequence of escalatory events: the Islamabad Talks collapsed on 12 April; Trump ordered the US Navy to impose a full block- ade of Iranian ports from 13 April; and Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz on 18 April in response to the US refusing to lift the blockade. Goldman Sachs estimated that the closure and infrastructure attacks had reduced global daily production by 14.5 million barrels.Brent had not traded below $100 for nearly two weeks prior to this period, but the Islamabad ceasefire hopes had briefly softened prices into the mid-$80s. The renewed escalation erased that retreat entirely. The IEA described the disruption as the biggest energy shock in history. Iran's re-clo- sure on 18 April confirmed Brent at $95.42 by week-end and set the stage for the commodity's eventual breach of $100 and beyond in the follow- ing week.

MarketswatchZiG Official Holdshe Zimbabwe Gold held its narrow official trading band through the week of 11–18 April, edging marginally firmer from ZiG25.24 per dollar at the start of the period to ZiG25.18 by Thursday 17 April. The move, a weekly appreciation of just 0.24%, is characteristic of the compressed volatility the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe has maintained on the official interbank market since tightening monetary conditions in October 2024. For the sixth consecutive week, the official rate offered little drama.\"If we wanted to buy back all the local currency that is in the market using the reserves that we have, we could do that at an exchange rate of around 15 to the dollar.\" — RBZ Governor John Mushayavanhu, 18 April 2026The statement attracted both interest and scepticism in equal measure. Supporters noted that the reserve accumulation since the ZiG's launch in April 2024 has been genuine and substantial, and that gold, now trading above US$4,800 per ounce, continues to appreciate in value, further strengthening the reserve base. Critics, however, argued that the buyback arithmetic is theoretical rather than actionable. The ZiG accounts for only approximately 30% of transactions by value in an economy that remains deeply dollarised, and the real test of a currency's worth is not what an institution could theoretically purchase with its reserves but what economic agents are willing to accept it for in voluntary exchange. On that measure, the parallel market, where the ZiG was still trading at ZiG35–40 per dollar through much of this week, provides a more candid answer.The parallel premium, which had spiked to approximately ZiG40 per dollar following the 7 April Big Five banknote launch, has begun to narrow, trading around ZiG35–40 through this week versus the post-launch spike high of ZiG40. The directional improvement is modest but real, and the partial ceasefire in the Middle East may have provided an indirect confidence boost by reducing the sense of global economic vulnerability that had been amplifying dollarisation tendencies. Regional MarketsRand: Gains Made, Risks RemainThe South African rand was the regional story of the week, delivering what Reuters described as its strongest session in almost a month on Wednesday 8 April, the day the ceasefire was announced, before enduring a week of whiplash volatility as the durability of the agreement came into question. The currency opened the reporting period on Monday 13 April at approximately R16.86 against the US dollar, having already benefited from the first wave of ceasefire relief. The question for the week was whether that gain could hold.The answer, over the first half of the week, was a cautious yes. The rand firmed further to R16.34 by Thursday 17 April as ceasefire-related risk appetite remained broadly intact, and as analysts noted that the immediate threat of a Strait of Hormuz blockade, which had been the single most acute source of South African inflation risk since the conflict began on 28 February, had at least temporarily receded. Kwacha: Quiet, Multi-Year HighsThe Zambian Kwacha extended its multi-month appreciation trend through the week of 11–18 April, trading to ZMW19.13 per dollar by Sunday 20 April, a level that represents one of its strongest sustained positions since mid-2023. The 0.52% weekly gain is modest in isolation but meaningful in context: the kwacha has been quietly and persistently appreciating since Zambia's debt restructuring reached completion and its IMF programme found its footing, and each successive week of strength near the ZMW19 level chips away at the scepticism that surrounded the currency only eighteen months ago when it was trading above ZMW28 per dollar.The week's driver was a combination of the global risk-on environment stemming from the Iran ceasefire and the ongoing structural tailwind of elevated copper prices, which have remained anchored near US$13,000 per tonne. As Africa's largest copper producer, Zambia's foreign exchange receipts are directly and materially exposed to copper price movements, and the sustained elevation of prices on the back of global energy transition demand, electric vehicles, grid infrastructure, data centres, continues to generate robust inflows into the Bank of Zambia's accounts. Those inflows support the currency's appreciation without requiring the central bank to intervene aggressively.Pula: Recovery, Diamond OverhangThe Botswana Pula navigated a week of competing forces, opening around BWP14.12 per dollar on 13 April as some of the initial ceasefire optimism faded and ending the week at approximately BWP13.86, having touched a recovery high near BWP13.40 in the immediate aftermath of the 8 April ceasefire announcement before giving back a portion of those gains. On a weekly basis the pula is modestly weaker from its post-ceasefire peak, but on a 30-day basis it is still ahead of the late-March levels of BWP14.27, where the accumulated conflict premium had driven the currency to its weakest position of the year.The pula's behaviour this week closely mirrored the rand's, an expected outcome given that the South African rand carries significant weight in the Bank of Botswana's currency basket reference framework. When the rand rallied mid-week on ceasefire optimism and retreated on Thursday as the Strait of Hormuz situation remained unresolved, the pula traced the same arc. Naira: Stable, Premium DriftsThe Nigerian Naira continued on its established path of modest official-market softening and parallel-market premium widening through the week of 11–18 April, with the NFEM interbank rate drifting from approximately ₦1,371–1,387 at the close of the prior week to ₦1,383–1,399 by the end of this reporting period. The move reflects a combination of Q2 corporate foreign exchange demand picking up pace as businesses settle international invoices, and residual uncertainty about the ceasefire's durability keeping a risk premium on emerging market currencies.The parallel market has edged higher in tandem, with Bureau de Change operators in Lagos and Abuja quoting the dollar at ₦1,415–1,425 by week's end, a spread of approximately ₦16–26 above the official rate. The premium represents a mild widening from the near-historic convergence of ₦0.20 recorded on 7 April, when the official and parallel markets momentarily traded within touching distance of each other, but it remains minimal by any historical standard. In 2023, the premium was routinely 50–100% or higher.Shilling: Steady, Policy Discipline The Kenyan Shilling has been the quiet standout of the regional coverage universe this week, strengthening modestly but consistently from KSh129.55 per dollar at the week's open on Monday 14 April to KSh129.15 by Sunday 20 April. The 0.62% weekly gain is small in magnitude but notable in context: the shilling's 52-week range of KSh128.75 to KSh130.38 represents a total annual variation of just 1.26%, reserve-currency-class stability for a frontier economy navigating a Middle East conflict, a global tariff escalation, and an evolving monetary policy cycle simultaneously.The most consequential event for Kenyan markets this week was not a rate move but a rate hold. The Central Bank of Kenya's Monetary Policy Committee, meeting on 8 April, voted to hold the Central Bank Rate at 8.75%, pausing what had been a record ten-consecutive-cut easing cycle that had reduced the benchmark from 13.0% to 8.75% since August 2024. Governor Kamau Thugge cited the surge in global oil prices, from approximately US$63 per barrel in December 2025 to nearly US$98 by late March, as having materially increased Kenya's inflation risk profile. The CBK revised its 2026 current account deficit projection to 3.0% of GDP.The AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 25TParallel Rate Narrows

ZSE & VFEX WEEKLY COMMENTARYhe ZSE closed in positive territory despite an oscillatory performance, extended the positive streak to yet another week as investors take a conservative stance amid uncertainties. The ZSE All Share Index firmed by a further 2.58% week-on-week to Friday to close at 384.84 points, driven by a growth in both market heavies and medium caps. Year-to-date, the ZSE All Share Index is up 38.5% (39.4% in US$ terms), which compares to a 27.7% nominal growth (26.8% in US$ terms) registered in 2025, and a 117.6% nominal growth (14.4% in US$ terms) achieved in 2024. Since the beginning of the month, the ZSE mainstream index has gained 5.4% (3.5% in USD terms), buttressing a nominal 1.8% (1.8% in US$ terms) growth achieved in April.Share Index plummeted by -1.52% against prior week to close at 223.35 points, driven by 6 laggards which outweighed 4 risers. The market has retreated by -2.4% since the beginning of May, following a -8.4% decline registered in April. The All-share index has climbed 26.3% year-to-date, compared to a staggering 70% growth achieved in 2025, and a mild growth of 4.1% registered in 2024. An aggregate of US$3,621,541 exchanged hands this week, down from US$5,762,026 traded in the prior week.On currency markets, the exchange rate has sustained stability for over a year amid a prolonged contractionary monetary policy since September 2024. A policy rate of 35%, since then, which has remained above the exchange premium which presently hovers at an average 31%, has significantly discouraged speculative borrowing and trading. Consequently, the parallel ex-rate has remained stable, with a positive year-to-date movement. The ZiG depreciated by -0.21% against the USD on the interbank market this week to close at ZWG25.81 per each US$.TThe AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026 26ZSE ASI VFEX ASI ZWG INTERBANK RATE 08/0511/0512/0513/0514/0515/0508/0511/0512/0513/0514/0515/0508/0511/0512/0513/0514/0515/05375.15 226.80 25.76376.27 230.75 25.84376.43 233.62 25.76374.00 222.30 25.77381.13 224.87 25.84384.84 223.35 25.812.58% -1.52% -0.21%ZSE TOP 10 INDEX MEDIUM CAP INDEX SMALL CAP INDEX 100.11100.11100.11100.11100.11100.110.00%372.63 412.22374.38 410.60373.33 416.09370.60 414.86379.49 414.58381.44 426.2308/0511/0512/0513/0514/0515/052.36% 08/0511/0512/0513/0514/0515/053.40% 08/0511/0512/0513/0514/0515/05

TOP 5 WEEKLY RISERSTOP 5 WEEKLY FALLERS FINANCIAL MARKETS AT A GLANCE 2025AFDISARISTONBATCFIDELTADAIRIBORDHIPPOMEIKLESOKSEEDCOSTAR AFRICATSLTanganda 15806.8516673.956002952.14270.000295931311.3694405.91474.0047681386.12515806.8519973.956002801.38240950312.950411.3694395.053.0099600310.5086Latest PriceZiG CentsPrevious WeekZiG CentsConsumerStaplesRTG 18.009 18.009Latest PriceZWL CentsConsumer Previous WeekZWL CentsCAFCAG/BELTINGSMASIMBANAMPAKUNIFREIGHTZECO1300.11234985.31750.00181300.112356.418386.51750.0018Latest PriceZiG CentsIndustrialsSectorPrevious WeekZiG CentsARTZDRPROPLASTICSTURNALLWilldaleRioZim6.8054142.59.024756.8054149.95179.024.2275Latest PriceZiG CentsMaterialsSectorPrevious WeekZiG CentsTN CYBERTECHZIMPAPERS14.857.0211.057.02Latest PriceZiG CentsICTSectorPrevious WeekZiG CentsMASHHOLDFMP129.8105.4407130112Latest PriceZiG CentsReal EstateSectorPrevious WeekZiG CentsTN CYBERTECHSTAR AFRICATANGANDATSLDAIRIBORD14.854.00386.13681.00270.004176813034.4%33.1%24.4%13.5%12.5%COUNTER PRICE CENTS CHANGE % CHANGE FMLBATZHLZSE LTDFMP186.6716673.9565.00100.00105.44 (102) (3,300) (10) (10) (7)-35.3%-16.5%-12.8%-9.1%-5.9%COUNTER PRICE CENTS CHANGE ANGE Interbank Market Rate 25.81-0.21% ZSE Top 10 Index 381.442.36% ZSE All Share Index 384.842.58% NGSE All Share Index 252,243.13.05%11,130.96ConstantBSE All Share Index LuSE All Share Index 26,028.58-1.64%VFEX All Share Index 223.35-1.52% JSE All Share Index 115,162.1-2.31%CBZFBCHFIDELITYFMLNMBZZBFHZHLZSE Holdings16001099.7657.8513186.6667520.05530651001530.03990.020757.8513288.463852252074.5646110Latest PriceZiG CentsFinancialSectorPrevious WeekZiG Cents384.84223.35VFEX All Share IndexZSE All Share index VFEX All Share IndexWOW -1.5% MoM -14.9% YTD 26.3%384.84305.44ZSE Financials SectorZSE All Share indexZSE Financials indexWOW 1.8% MoM -2.7% YTD 0.8%384.84182.84ZSE Industrials Index (New)ZSE All Share indexZSE Industrials Index (new)WOW -1.4% MoM 23.4% YTD 33.2%384.84651.38ZSE Real Estate IndexZSE All Share index ZSE Real Estate IndexWOW -3.9% MoM 7.9% YTD 5.8%11130.96384.84BSE All Share IndexBSE All Share IndexZSE All Share indexWOW 0% MoM 0.4% YTD 0.9%384.84381.44ZSE Top 10 IndexZSE All Share indexZSE Top10 indexWOW 2.4% MoM 5.3% YTD 35.4%384.84869.05ZSE Consumer Discretionary IndexZSE All Share indexZSE Consumer Discretionary indexWOW -0.6% MoM -1% YTD 15.7%384.84400.34ZSE ICT IndexZSE All Share indexZSE ICT IndexWOW 0% MoM -12.3% YTD 48.8%-1.7%7.7%Interbank MarketInterbank MoM Mvt.ZSE All Share index26028.58384.84LUSE All Share IndexLUSE All Share IndexZSE All Share indexWOW -1.6% MoM -4.7% YTD 0.4%384.84426.23ZSE Medium Cap IndexZSE All Share indexMedium Cap indexWOW 3.4% MoM 17.6% YTD 53.2%384.84299.11ZSE Consumer Staples IndexZSE All Share indexZSE Consumers Staples indexWOW 4.2% MoM 13.2% YTD 28%384.84169.57ZSE Materials IndexZSE All Share indexZSE Materials IndexWOW -2.2% MoM 5.7% YTD 5.9%115162.1384.84JSE All Share Index JSE All Share IndexZSE All Share indexWOW -2.3% MoM -1.2% YTD -0.6%252243.1384.84NGSE All Share Index NGSE All Share IndexZSE All Share indexWOW 3.1% MoM 25.1% YTD 62.1%

Regional Economic WatchAfrica’s most populous nation had made progress taming price pres- sures before the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, with inflation easing for 11 straight months. But the conflict in the Middle East has pushed up domestic fuel prices and fed through into food costs, the main driver of headline inflation.2) Nigeria’s pensions regulator has given fund managers a special waiver to invest in the planned initial public offering of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, in an unusual policy shift aimed at backing a key national asset. The National Pension Commission said it would suspend standard eligi- bility criteria such as profitability and a dividend track record that typi- cally govern how pension funds allocate assets, a May 13 circular said. The move is part of a broader push to channel long-term domestic capi- tal into large industrial projects seen as vital for growth and energy secu- rity.3) Dangote Petroleum Refinery has filed a new lawsuit against Nigeria’s attorney general in a bid to overturn fuel import licences issued to mar- keters and the NNPC state oil firm, court documents seen by Reuters show.The case signals renewed tensions almost a year after Dangote withdrew an earlier lawsuit challenging similar licences. That case sought to nullify import permits issued to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company and several traders.The new filing asks the Federal High Court in Lagos to set aside import permits issued or renewed by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), arguing they breach an earli- er order to maintain the status quo.Ghana1)Ghana and the International Monetary Fund on Friday announced a staff-level agreement on the sixth and final review of the West African country’s support programme. Ghana’s presidency said in a statement that the milestone marked the “end of Ghana’s financial bailout relationship with the IMF”. The IMF said in a separate statement that Ghana’s authorities had requested a non-fi- nancing Policy Coordination Instrument.2) Ghana’s mining investment climate risks being undermined by lease revocations, renewal delays and policy uncertainty, adding to cost pres- sures for miners, the head of the industry group has said.Kenneth Ashigbey, CEO of the Ghana Chamber of Mines, told Reuters on Thursday that the revocation of some leases held by local miner Adamus Resources over alleged illegalities, along with uncertainty over Gold Fields’ GFIJ.J lease renewal, risk creating the impression that “security of tenure in Ghana is not guaranteed,” potentially hurting investment.The lease for Tarkwa – a cornerstone asset for the South African miner that produced about 427,000 ounces of gold in 2025 – expires in 2027, but efforts to advance renewal talks have stalled, Ashigbey said.EthiopiaNigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote’s group of companies has increased planned investment in a fertiliser plant in Ethiopia to more than $4 billion from $2.5 billion announced last year.Dangote Group said on its X account on Sunday that Aliko Dangote had visited the site of the plant to assess construction work with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The urea plant will have a capacity of 3 million metric tons a year and is part of a drive by Dangote to end Africa’s fertiliser imports. Dangote Group’s statement said the project now had an expanded scope, including a 110 km (68 mile) pipeline, a 120 megawatt power plant, a polypropylene packaging facility and a 2 million ton NPK (nitrogen, phos- phorus and potassium) blending plant. Under the initial agreement signed by state-owned Ethiopian Investment Holdings and Dangote Group, Ethiopia would have a 40% stake in the project and Dangote 60%.Congo, UgandaAn Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda has been declared a public health emergency of international concern by the World Health Organization, after 80 deaths were attributed to the disease.The WHO said the outbreak, caused by the Bundibugyo virus, did not meet the criteria of a pandemic emergency but there was a high risk the disease could spread further to countries sharing land borders with the DRC.On Sunday, the U.N. health agency said in a statement that 80 suspected deaths, eight laboratory-confirmed cases and 246 suspected cases had been reported as of Saturday in the DRC’s Ituri province across at least three health zones, including Bunia, Rwampara and Mongbwalu.UgandaUganda’s President Yoweri Museveni signed into law a contentious mea- sure to curb foreign influence after parliament scaled back provisions that had drawn criticism from financial institutions over potentially ham- pering remittances and development work.The bill criminalises promotion of the “interests of a foreigner against the interests of Uganda” and bans anyone working on behalf of foreign inter- ests from developing or implementing policy without government approv- al.Rights groups have said that such broad language would allow the government to criminalise just about any form of political opposition. The government has accused critics of exaggerating the bill’s impact.Nigeria1)Nigeria’s headline consumer inflation rose for the second month run- ning in April, edging up to 15.69% year-on-year from 15.38% in March, data from the statistics office showed on Friday.28 The AXiS CCXV Monday 18 May 2026*From Page 4EQUITY AXISfifffflffiflffiFinancial insights at your fingertips.flflfl flffi fl
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