The AXiS LXII

 #Issue: LXII MPS and the stock market conundrum CFI succumbs to drought problem African Sun set for VFEX listing Workplace Diversity: The Key for Zim companies ................................................................................... ................................................................................... ................................................................................... ................................................................................... ...................................................................................... Accounting for inflation in Zimbabwe Correction or Ommision

The equityaxis.net @equity axis @equity axis zimbabwe @equity axis @equity axis @equity axis 08677 197 791 @ aaronc[at]equityaxis.net EQUITY AXIS &ŝŶĂŶĐŝĂů/ŶƐŝŐŚƐĂƚLJŽƵƌĮŶŐĞƌƟƉƐ The CONTENTS The AXiS LXII 10 Feb 2023 In Focus 18 19 20 21 22 7 8 9 10 11 12 14 15 16 5 6 ^ŚŽƵůĚďůĞŶĚĞĚŝŶŇĂƟŽŶ͗ƌĞƉůĂĐĞƚŚĞŝŵĚŽůůĂƌŝŶŇĂƟŽŶĂƐĂŵĂŝŶƐƚƌĞĂŵŵĞĂƐƵƌĞ͍ Dovish RBZ : dŚĞŝŵƉůŝĐĂƟŽŶƐŽĨĐŽŶƚƌĂĐƟŽŶĂƌLJŵŽŶĞƚĂƌLJƉŽůŝĐLJ ŽŶƐƚŽĐŬŵĂƌŬĞƚƐ ĂƉŝƚĂůDĂƌŬĞƚƐ DĂƌŬĞƚƐ 'ƵĞƐƚŽůƵŵŶ tŽƌůĚEĞǁƐ ĐŽŶŽŵŝĐEĞǁƐĂŶĚŶĂůLJƐŝƐ 28 30 29 31 23 CFI Holdings :ƌŽƵŐŚƚƌĞĚƵĐĞƐĞĸĐĂĐLJ ĨƌŝĐĂŶ^ƵŶũŽŝŶƐƚŚĞŐƌĞĂƚŵŝŐƌĂƟŽŶƐ : ,ŽƐƉŝƚĂůŝƚLJŐŝĂŶƚƐĞƚ ƚŽƚƌĂĚĞ^ĨŽƌh^ͲĚĞŶŽŵŝŶĂƚĞĚs&y ART Holdings : WŽƐƚƐŵŝdžĞĚYϭƉĞƌĨŽƌŵĂŶĐĞ ĐŽŶĞƚtŝƌĞůĞƐƐ͗ŚƌŽŶŝĐůĞƐŝŶĐƌĞĂƐĞĚǀŽůƵŵĞƐ͕ĚĞƐƉŝƚĞƚŚĞ ƵŶƌĞůŝĂďůĞŶĂƟŽŶĂůƉŽǁĞƌŐƌŝĚ tŽƌŬƉůĂĐĞĚŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ͗,ŽǁŝƚĐĂŶLJŝĞůĚŝŶĐƌĞŵĞŶƚĂůǀĂůƵĞĨŽƌ ŝŵďĂďǁĞĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐ EĂƟŽŶĂůdLJƌĞ^ĞƌǀŝĐĞƐ͗ĞƉƌĞƐƐĞĚĞůĞĐƚƌŝĐŝƚLJƐƵƉƉůLJĐƵƌƚĂŝůƐ YϯŽƵƚƉƵƚ DĂƐŝŵďĂ,ŽůĚŝŶŐƐ͗h^ĚŽŵŝŶĂƚĞĚƌĞǀĞŶƵĞƚŽŝŶƐƵůĂƚĞ ĚĞƉƌĞĐŝĂƟŶŐůŽĐĂůĐƵƌƌĞŶĐLJ ZdŽƌƉŽƌĂƟŽŶ͗tŚĂƚƚŚĞƉĂƐƚƚĞůůƐƵƐĂďŽƵƚƚŚĞŵĂŶƵĨĂĐƚƵƌŝŶŐ ŐƌŽƵƉ͛ƐƌĞĐĞƐƐŝŽŶƉĞƌĨŽƌŵĂŶĐĞƐ dŝŐĞƌĞZĞŝƚ͗ĞĐŽŵĞƐĂƌĞĂůƟŐĞƌƉƌŽƉĞƌƚLJǁŝŶŐŝŶƚŚĞŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ^ƚĂƌůŝŶŬƚŽůĂƵŶĐŚŝŶŝŵďĂďǁĞ͗tŚĂƚŝƚŵĞĂŶƐĨŽƌƚŚĞƌƵƌĂůƉŽƉƵůĂƟŽŶĂŶĚĐŽŵƉĞƟƚŽƌƐ ƵƐŝŶĞƐƐĂƌŽƵŶĚƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚ WŽůŝƟĐƐĂƌŽƵŶĚƚŚĞǁŽƌůĚ ZĞŐŝŽŶĂůĐŽŶŽŵŝĐǁĂƚĐŚ DĂƌŬĞƚƐtĂƚĐŚ tĞĞŬůLJŽŵŵŽĚŝƟĞƐWƵůƐĞ ^tĞĞŬůLJ &ŝŶĂŶĐŝĂůDĂƌŬĞƚƐƚĂ'ůĂŶĐĞ 25 26 32 dŚĞŽǀĞƌ dŚĞZŝƐŵĂŬŝŶŐĂĐĂƐĞĨŽƌƚŚĞ ƌĞĐŽŐŶŝƟŽŶŽĨďůĞŶĚĞĚŝŶŇĂƟŽŶ ĂƐ ƚŚĞ ƉƌŝŵĂƌLJ LJĂƌĚƐƟĐŬ ĨŽƌ ŵĞĂƐƵƌŝŶŐ ŝŶŇĂƟŽŶ ŝŶ ŝŵďĂͲ ďǁĞ ĂŚĞĂĚ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ŝŵ ĚŽůůĂƌ ŝŶŇĂƟŽŶ ƌĂƚĞ͘ /Ŷ ƚŚĞ DŽŶĞƚĂƌLJ WŽůŝĐLJ ^ƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚ ĂŶŶŽƵŶĐĞĚ ůĂƐƚǁĞĞŬ͕ ƚŚĞ ĂŶŬ ƐĂŝĚ ŝƚǁĂƐ important to note that the ZW$ ŝŶŇĂƟŽŶ ŝƐ ŶŽ ůŽŶŐĞƌ Ă ƚƌƵĞ ƌĞƉƌĞƐĞŶƚĂƟǀĞ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĐŽƐƚ ŽĨ ůŝǀŝŶŐŝŶŝŵďĂďǁĞ͘͘͘ &/ƐƵĐĐƵŵďƐƚŽĚƌŽƵŐŚƚƉƌŽď- ůĞŵ dŚĞƉůĂƟŶƵŵŵĂƌŬĞƚŝƐĞdžƉĞĐƚŽͲ ŶƟŶƵĞĚ ĞƌƌĂƟĐ ƌĂŝŶĨĂůů ƐƉĞůůƐ ĐŽƵƌƚĞƐLJŽĨŐůŽďĂůǁĂƌŵŝŶŐŚĂǀĞ ďĞĞŶĂŵĂũŽƌƐƚƵŶĨŽƌĞĐŽŶŽŵŝĐ ƉƌŽǁĞƐƐ͕ ĨƌŽŵ ĂƉĞ ƚŽ ĂŝƌŽ͘DŽƌĞƚŚĂŶϱϬйŽĨĨƌŝĐĂŶ 'W ĐŽŵĞƐ ĨƌŽŵ ŐƌŝĐƵůƚƵƌĞ͘ ,ŽǁĞǀĞƌ͕ ǁŝƚŚ ƚŚĞ ĞīĞĐƚƐ ŽĨ ĐůŝŵĂƚĞ ĐŚĂŶŐĞ ĂŶĚ ŐůŽďĂů ǁĂƌŵŝŶŐ͕ ŐƌŝĐƵůƚƵƌĂů ĐŽŶƚƌŝďƵͲ ƟŽŶƚŽƚŚĞĨƌŝĐĂŶĞĐŽŶŽŵLJŚĂƐ ďĞĞŶĚǁŝŶĚůŝŶŐŝŶƚŚĞďůŝŶŬŽĨĂŶ ĞLJĞ͘ ĨƌŝĐĂŶ^ƵŶƐĞƚĨŽƌs&yůŝƐƟŶŐ ĨƌŝĐĂŶ^ƵŶŝƐƚŚĞůĂƚĞƐƚ^ͲůŝƐƚͲ ŝŶŐ ƚŽ ŵŝŐƌĂƚĞ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ h^ͲĚĞͲ ŶŽŵŝŶĂƚĞĚ ďŽƵƌƐĞ͕ ũŽŝŶŝŶŐ ƐĞǀĞƌĂů ĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐ ƚŚĂƚ ŚĂǀĞ ŵĂĚĞ ŝŶƚĞŶƟŽŶƐ ƚŽ ũŽŝŶ ƚŚĞ s&y͕ ŝŶĐůƵĚŝŶŐ džŝĂ ŽƌƉŽƌĂͲ ƟŽŶ͕EĂƟŽŶĂů&ŽŽĚƐĂŶĚ^ĞĞĚŽ >ŝŵŝƚĞĚ͘dŚĞ͞ŐƌĞĂƚŵŝŐƌĂƟŽŶ͟ŝƐ ƚŚĞ ĐƵůŵŝŶĂƟŽŶ ŽĨŝŶƐƵƌŵŽƵŶƚͲ ĂďůĞ ŝŶǀĞƐƚŵĞŶƚ ĚĞƚĞƌƌĞŶƚƐ ƉůĂLJŝŶŐŽƵƚŽŶƚŚĞs&y͕͘͘͘ tŽƌŬƉůĂĐĞ ŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ͗ dŚĞ <ĞLJ ĨŽƌŝŵĐŽŵƉĂŶŝĞƐ /ŶƐŽŵĞŽƌŐĂŶŝƐĂƟŽŶƐŝŶŝŵďĂͲ ďǁĞ͕ ƚŚĞƌĞ ŝƐ Ă ŶŽƟĐĞĂďůĞ ŝŶĐƌĞĂƐĞ ŝŶ ĚŝǀĞƌƐĞ ŐƌŽƵƉƐ͛ ƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƟŽŶ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ǁŽƌŬƉůĂĐĞ͘ tŚĂƚ ŚĂƐ ĐĂƵƐĞĚ ŵĂũŽƌ ƉƌŽďͲ ůĞŵƐǁŝƚŚŝŶƐŽŵĞŽƌŐĂŶŝƐĂƟŽŶƐ ŝƐƚŚĂƚĐĂůůƐĨŽƌĚŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ͕ŝŶĐůƵƐŝǀͲ ŝƚLJ ĂŶĚ ĞƋƵĂůŝƚLJ ĨƌŽŵ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ůĞĂĚĞƌƐ͕ĐĂƉƚĂŝŶƐŽĨŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJĂŶĚ ĂƵƚŚŽƌŝƟĞƐ ĨƌŽŵ ƚŚĞ ƉƵďůŝĐ ƐĞĐƚŽƌĂŶĚŐƌŽƵƉƐŽĨůŽďďLJŝƐƚƐ͘͘͘ ZSE ASI 21,857.18 21,981.41 21,976.83 21,675.81 21,438.71 21,624.47 -1.06% ZSE TOP 10 13,857.44 13,860.17 13,765.98 13,476.05 13,295.91 13,349.26 -3.67% D/hDW/Ey 41,040.30 41,929.97 42,691.86 42,926.56 42,723.25 43,623.29 6.29% ZSE TOP 15 15,242.75 15,293.15 15,231.94 14,959.44 14,767.01 14,851.04 -2.57% ZWL INTERBAN< 708.6502 711.8963 714.5217 722.2308 732.0036 738.4115 -4.03% ^D>>W/Ey 461,856.19 457,148.25 457,148.92 469,262.73 469,262.73 469,419.34 1.64% ZĞĐĞƐƐŝŽŶŶŽƚŽƵƚŽĨƚŚĞƉŝĐƚƵƌĞ: /ŶĚƵƐƚƌLJĚŽƵďƞƵůĂďŽƵƚϮϬϮϯŐƌŽǁƚŚƉƌŽƐƉĞĐƚƐ ϮϬϮϯ&ƌĂŐŝůĞ^ƚĂƚĞƐ/ŶĚĞdžŝŶϮϬϮϯ͗ŝŵďĂďǁĞ͛ƐƉŽƐŝƟŽŶƚŽǁŽƌƐĞŶ ĞůĂƌƵƐsŝƐŝƚ :ƚĂůĞŽĨĐŽŶŽŵŝĐ^ĞŶƐĞs^ŽƌƌƵƉƟŽŶ ,ǁĂŶŐĞdŚĞƌŵĂůWŽǁĞƌ^ƚĂƟŽŶ͗>ĞŌŽƵƚŝŶƚŚĞĐŽůĚǁŝƚŚƐƵďƐƚĂŶƟĂůĚĞĮĐŝƚ &ƌŽŵϮϬϬйƚŽϭϱϬй͗/ƐƚŚĞŽǀĞƌŶŝŐŚƚůĞŶĚŝŶŐƌĂƚĞĐƵƚƚŽŽ ůŝƩůĞƚŽŽůĂƚĞ͍ ĞŵLJƐƟĨLJŝŶŐƚŚĞϮϬϮϯDŽŶĞƚĂƌLJWŽůŝĐLJ^ƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚ

5 dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ 6KRXOGEOHQGHGLQȵDWLRQ babwe ahead of the Zim dollar inflation rate. In the Monetary Policy Statement announced last week, the Bank said it was important to note that the ZW$ inflation is no longer a true rep- resentative of the cost of living in Zimbabwe as the country is in a dual currency system where prices and household incomes are also in both USD and local currency. In that context, RBZ argued, Zimbabwe’s inflation needed to be recalibrated to reflect the dual currency nature of incomes and prices in the economy to pro- vide a true reflection of the cost of living in the country. Zimbabwe’s official headline inflation as mea- sured by the ZWL CPI basket, came in at 229.8% in January, still ranking as the highest globally, a position it has held for over 6 months to date, despite a recent climbdown. Zimbabwe’s statistics office has however moved closer in line with the evolving dynamics by including blended inflation, in line with the government’s policy of reverting to a dollarized economy which includes a basket of currencies. The reversion to dollarisation in the present instance however slightly differs from the pre-2019 levels in that it now includes a ZWL local currency creating what is alternatively termed a dual currency economy. Adoption of the blended inflation rate, on the net, will effec- tively reduce the official inflation figure by almost half, but this is only from a technical standpoint. We look at the matter in detail in this piece. RBZ’s arguments for adoption of blended infla- tion RBZ first used the system's ratio between local and foreign deposits as an indication of a domi- nant USD, extrapolated in transactional busi- ness. The Bank said as at end of December 2022, the FCA deposits in the banking system accounted for 64.2% of total deposits, with the remainder being ZW$ deposits. It said transac- tional activities in the retail and wholesale sec- tors also pointed to the same structure of cur- rency composition as shown by recent Confed- eration of Zimbabwe Industry (CZI) surveys, which reported that on average USD sales con- tribute 66% to foreign currency generation for the businesses. Further, the Bank demonstrated that the dual currency structure of the economy is corroborated by estimates by the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat) at the Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) division level as shown in the table below. lar pattern, it would be a natural choice based on logic. However, it has the consequential impact of driving a narrative of reversal and giving up, which government does not prefer. On the other hand, the Zimdollar inflation, as a main indicator is problematic to authorities because it gives an impression of a failed monetary policy, given that it hovers above 200% after massive efforts to tighten policy. At present Zimbabwe’s inflation is the highest globally and that paints an antagonistic image at a time authorities are saying we are enjoy- ing stability. This is why the blended inflation option is being touted, despite its ambiguity and lack of guidance. ZimStat should continue to publish inflation across different currencies and perhaps officialise USD inflation as prima- ry inflation. The market will however continue to track the ZWL inflation for its potency, which cannot be overlooked given that incomes are still highly denominated in ZWL. Discarding the ZWL inflation indicator reduces scrutiny on authori- ties, who ushered back the Zimdollar on the pretext of aligned fundamentals. objective of ushering back a currency, which is stable, remains elusive and this is largely reflected through the exchange rate and infla- tion performances. It should therefore not be sidestepped or relegated to the background, given its impact on both the majority of the formal workforce and the strategic economic thrust of de-dollarisation. How ZimStat computes inflation The computation of inflation is done through the Sampling of Outlets. In undertaking the Consumer Price Survey (CPS), ZIMSTAT uses purposive or judgmental sampling of outlets in both urban and rural areas. The sampling approach is the most recommended for such surveys and has the advantage that closed out- lets and outlets that change their line of busi- ness are easily replaced. Data Collection In compiling the Consumer Price Index, ZIM- STAT monitors price levels of 495 products categorized according to the United Nations Statistics Division’s Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP). More than four thousand retail outlets in rural and urban areas are surveyed annually through- out the country. Data on prices are collected in the Consumer Price Survey around the 15th of every month. Among them are supermarkets, general dealers, departmental stores, liquor stores, open markets like Mbare farmers market, fuel service stations and garages, hotels and restaurants, fast foods outlets, bus and taxi companies, hair salons, pharmacies, communication service pro- viders, government and private hospitals as well as rural and urban district councils. Against the above, the RBZ believes that an inflation profile that combines US dollar and Zimbabwe dollar price dynamics, which is cur- rently being computed by ZimStat as blended inflation needs to be considered and recalibrated to reflect the current proportions of expenditure and incomes obtained in the economy and adopted as the official inflation for Zimbabwe. Is this a rational proposition? The shift to recognise blended inflation as the official statistic does not have to change the underlying methodology of computing for infla- tion, all else being equal. However, blended inflation should have a weighting according to the extent to which a specific currency is being utilised in the mix of currency utilisation. These weightings are however not wholesale and they depend as well on category or basket weightings for products, for example, food and non-alcoholic beverages as a category carries 31.2%. ZimStat’s classification of individual consumption by purpose (COICOP) satisfies this categorisation, but it has to be updated frequently to mirror the shifting deposit struc- tures and consumption patterns by currency, which of late has been highly skewed towards USD. In our view, the adoption of blended inflation as official inflation is not the right thing. Blended inflation has a lot of moving variables which may not be properly captured and factored in. Moreso, blended inflation as an out- come has a dilutive effect especially if one cur- rency is stable while the other is weakening or strengthening. The volatility itself is problematic in that it either inflates or deflates the true extent of inflation in either currency. This is even true when the weighting is equal at (50:50). A Zim dollar depreciation would be neutralised by a stable USD performance to give a distorted blended outcome. In a hypothetical market scenario, it would be possible to calculate an average market move- ment given weights assigned to currency against utilisation levels and actual price movement (exchange rate depreciation/appreciation) over a defined period. This is a model similar to the computation of ZSE indices, which are value-weighted. It holds in capital markets but not in inflation computation because stock market counters are apples for apples, but USD and Zim dollar are apples and bananas. The only way to give a full market picture is to compute the 2 inflation rates separately, which the ZimStat is already doing. The only challenge in question is which infla- tion measure to use in the main. RBZ is spoilt and cornered. Officially recognising the USD inflation as the main inflation is problematic because it sends a signal that Zimbabwe is moving back towards full dollarisation and thus relegating the ZWL as a measure of store of value. It would be very logical to recognise the USD inflation as the official inflation because the USD is now the dominant currency within the multicurrency basket. In a market where about 70% of transactions are now being done in USD and the deposit structure shows a simi The RBZ is making a case for the recogni- tion of blended inflation as the primary yardstick for measuring inflation in ZimUHSODFHWKH=LPGROODULQȵDWLRQDVDPDLQVWUHDPPHDVXUH"

foreign capital into domestic mar- kets can cause an appreciation of domestic currencies relative to foreign currencies, making exports from domestic countries more competitively priced compared with imports from abroad. This has the effect of slowing down infla- tion and thus may also lead to increased investment in domestic stocks as investors seek out higher returns than what they could get from investing abroad. In addition to influencing stock prices directly through changes in interest rates and currency exchange rates, relaxing a contrac- tionary monetary policy can also have an indirect effect on stock markets by stimulating economic growth overall. Lower interest rates make borrowing cheaper for businesses, which encourages them to invest more in capital projects such as new factories or equipment upgrades that create jobs and increase productivity over time. Increased investment leads to higher economic growth which then leads to increased consumer spending which further boosts eco- nomic activity and ultimately leads to higher stock prices as well due to increased investor confidence in the overall market. Furthermore, the measures announced by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe in the 2023 Monetary Policy Statement are also likely to have an effect on stock markets by increasing liquidity in the overall financial markets. When central banks reduce interest rates and/or increase export retention receipts, this increases liquidity as there is more money available for trading activities such as buying and sell- ing stocks or bonds. Increased liquidity makes it easier for inves- tors to buy and sell securities quickly without having to worry about finding buyers or sellers at any given time since there are more people trading at any given moment due to increased liquidity levels overall. On the other hand, while the mon- etary measures were mildly loos- ened, some of the measures that were taken to fasten belts on exchange rate control are still active. These include the increased capital gains tax on portfolios liquidated within 180 days of exer- cise. The impact of this measure is to deter minorities from avid trad- ing. The huge jumps on the ZSE, however, are sufficient to prompt large-volume traders to bank on short-term gains, which in turn induce more activity and liquidity on the market. As was the trend in 2020 and 2021, investors would grab shares in the first half of each month before selling off in the last half of the respective week, taking out short-term profits and a move which spiked the appetite for borrowing hence the need for the bank to increase the policy rate. Going forward, despite the partial relaxation of borrowing costs, the tight restrictions on the stock market will aid as a mitiga- tor to the short-term profiteering activities. Meanwhile, increasing export retention receipts can have a posi- tive impact on the local currency. This is because when a country exports goods, it receives foreign currency in exchange for its goods, which increases the amount of foreign currency held by the coun- try. This increase in foreign curren- cy circulation can lead to notable stability of the ZWL, as it increas- es demand for the local currency and makes it more attractive to investors. Additionally, increased export receipts can lead to increased economic activity in the country, which can further strengthen the local currency. In conclusion, the 2023 monetary policy announced by the RBZ has many potential impacts on the stock markets in the country, par- ticularly the ZSE which is highly volatile and hence mainly topical, including influencing stock prices directly through changes in interest rates and currency exchange rates; stimulating economic growth; increasing liquidity; and boosting investor confidence overall due to improved economic conditions resulting from lower borrowing costs for businesses leading them to invest more into capital projects that create jobs over time leading ultimately leading higher stock prices due increased investor confi- dence overall. versial measures in the second quarter. Consequently, the ZSE recorded an 80% nominal growth in 2022, which translated to a loss of -72% in US$ terms. This was mainly due to the failure of the market to catch up with inflation and currency devaluation, with the ZWL recording an -86% deprecia- tion against the greenback. The tightened money supply heavily weighed on demand for ZWL-de- nominated asset classes. The repu- tation of the bourse as a safe haven was shaken and this resulted in heightened sell-offs. On the upside, a notable success of the monetary policy was seen in the 4th quarter of 2022 as annual and month-on-month inflation sus- tainably slowed down. This resulted in a gradual kickback of the ZSE as prospects of value preservation started to entice investor appetite. In December, the bourse surged by a whopping 34% followed by 17% in January. In the first week of February, the bourse rose by a nominal 17%. The new monetary policy measures are expected to encourage borrow- ing as the government tries to avert a possible economic recession. With inflation still hovering above 220%, while the exchange rate pre- mium continues to widen, the new policy rate gives room for specula- tive borrowing where the borrower will play on the parallel market using credit before profiteering and paying back the debt at a discount- ed figure. This is inflationary as it increases demand for the greenback with more ZWL in the hands of speculative borrowers. When a central bank relaxes mone- tary policy, it typically reduces interest rates or increases the amount of money available for lending. This makes the cost of borrowing money cheaper, which can lead to increased investment in stocks and other securities. Lower interest rates also make it more attractive for investors to buy stocks because they can get higher returns than they would if they were investing in bonds or other fixed-income investments. As more investors buy stocks, prices tend to rise as demand increases. This can lead to higher stock prices and increased investor confidence in the overall market. The relaxation of a contractionary monetary policy can also have an effect on currency exchange rates. When interest rates are lowered, foreign investors may be more likely to invest in domestic stocks because they will get higher returns than if they were investing in their own currency. This influx of I n the Monetary Policy Statement issued at the end of January, the Central Bank announced meaDovish RBZ 7KHLPSOLFDWLRQVRIFRQWUDFWLRQDU\PRQHWDU\SROLF\ RQVWRFNPDUNHWV 6 dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ sures which are typically buttress- ing the contractionary monetary policy direction introduced in the second quarter of 2022, albeit with minimal loosening. Some of the adjusted measures included a reduc- tion of the bank policy rate from 200% to 150%; increment and stan- dardization of the export retention at 75% and strengthening and liber- alization of the Willing Buyer Will- ing Seller (WBWS) market. The RBZ also projected annual blended inflation (USD and ZWL) to pro- gressively decline to 10-30% by year-end while monthly blended inflation is expected to average below 1,5% in 2023. The policy rates are also expected to be aligned to the implied ZWL infla- tion path and end the year 2023 between 30% and 60%. A contractionary policy is a type of monetary policy that keeps short-term interest rates above aver- age and, in the process, slows or even stops the growth of the money supply. This slows down economic growth temporarily but brings down inflation. In most cases, the central bank sets an inflation target and uses contrac- tionary monetary policy to achieve it. The objective of the policy, which is a variation of the federal fiscal policy, is to slow down a quickly expanding economy. The goal is to reduce inflation by limit- ing the total money in circulation. Spending is deterred by reducing the money supply. The RBZ introduced the contrac- tionary monetary policy in May of 2022 following rampant inflation which was skyrocketing out of con- trol along with a runaway currency depreciation. To buttress the policy, other measures were implemented to curb speculative trading and mop up excess liquidity, including tough measures on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE); the introduction of the Mosi-oa-Tunya gold coins as well as the suspension of payments to ZWL-based government contrac- tors. The tough measures targeted at the ZSE resulted in a record bloodbath on the bourse, which saw some eligible companies migrating to the US$-denominated bourse, VFEX, while some have announced their intention to migrate to the less volatile bourse. In 2020 and 2021 the ZSE record- ed the world’s best performance on investor returns basis in US$ terms, notching by over 400% and 100% in the two years respectively. The trend was sustained in the first quarter of 2022 before the contro

Continued erratic rainfall spells courtesy of global warming have been a major stun for economic prowess, from Cape to Cairo. More than 50% of African GDP comes from Agri- culture. However, with the effects of climate change and global warming, Agricultural contribu- tion to the African economy has been dwindling in the blink of an eye. Reports indicate that by 2016, Africa has already been importing agricultur- al products worth US$35 billion, products that can be produced within. The World Bank further projected that by 2025, African food imports will hit over US$110 billion. From over 50%, statistics from the World Bank indicate that agriculture's contribution to GDP has gone down to 22.1% over the past decade and ultimately to 17.1% present day. Africa’s over-reliance on natural rains has pitted the East African economic giant, Kenya into famine while the Southern African economic harbour, South Africa into darkness. Due to the high consumption of dirty fuels which is exacer- bated by the Russian aggression in Ukraine, coal included, recurrent drought spells are set to increase and are here to stay. This calls for other alternative methods to sustain such as heavy investments in irrigation systems and green energy. According to International Water Management Institute, in sub-Saharan Africa irrigation is not widespread covering only 7% of the total cultivat- ed area of 183 million hectares. This is by far the lowest proportion of irrigation anywhere in the world. The latest report conducted by the Malabo Mont- pellier Panel, which consists of 17 African and European experts who specialise in agriculture, ecology, nutrition, public policy and global devel- opment revealed that only 6% of arable land in Africa is currently irrigated and 9% in SADC despite increasing erratic weather brought on by climate change and a growing population in the continent. In comparison, in Latin America and Asia, 14% and 37% of arable land are irrigated respectively. The report stated that there is potential for irrigat- ed land to increase, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, where the available land and water resourc- es could see irrigated land grow from 7.7m hect- ares, to 38m hectares, but irrigation must be made a priority by governments in order to ensure the continent’s food security. According to the report, due to a growing popula- tion on the continent, people are at risk of hunger which is projected to grow by 5% by 2030 and 12% by 2050 if additional investment into irriga- tion is not made. In Zimbabwe, the then SADC’s bread basket drought spells have been incessant over the past decade and are further exacerbated by fragile eco- nomic policies which are making it hard for indus- trial players to survive through distorted exchange rates, a poor currency, an inflationary environment leading to high exchange losses than gains in monetary terms. Since the 2015-2016 rainfall season, Zimbabwe has been receiving unreliable rainfall spells. Zimbabwe recorded the worst rain- fall in 2016 followed by the 2019 to 2020 farming season. It is against this background that a ZSE-listed agro-based concern, CFI Holdings presented its financial statements for the full year ended 30 September 2022. Most of the Group’s operations were stunned by erratic rain supplies and to offset further disappointments, the Group said it will put more focus on the importation of soya and maize for the half year of 2023. However, against the above stats, importation is just a short-term remedy for the company. There is a need for diversifica- tion into non-agro businesses or massive invest- ments in irrigation schemes. The Company’s man- agement needs to be more transformational leaders than continuity leaders. CFI Holdings Limited is a leading agricultur- al-based industrial holding company in Zimbabwe; primarily involved in manufacturing and selling fresh produce, stock feed, and property manage- ment. Through subsidiaries and joint ventures, it manages wholesale and retail outlets which offer products and services for animal health, operates maize and wheat mills, and is involved in poultry farming and producing and selling poultry prod- ucts. Commenting about the incessant drought spells, the Group’s chairperson Itai Pasi said, “The erratic rains received during the 2021/2022 agricultural season suppressed aggregate demand for agro-in- puts and the country experienced a mid-season drought resulting in a significant decline in local agricultural output.” “The Group is therefore expected to continue rely- ing on imports of maize and soya for the next half-year of FY2023.” With continued climate change risks looming due to geo-political tension in Eastern Europe between Russia and Ukraine, coal consumption has soared increasing global warming, hence, drought spells are here to stay. Therefore, importation is only a short-term solu- tion. There is a need to invest more in irrigation systems and or diversify to non-agro-based com- modities. Due to erratic rainfall patterns in the 2021/2022 rainfall season, aggregate demand for retail prod- ucts decreased for the first time since 2019’s drought spells when the Zimbabwe dollar was re-introduced to contribute 80.0% of 2021’s 92% to the Group’s turnover while farming operations accounted for 2.6% from 3.6% in 2021. Maize and soya beans output was 13% down from the previous season as a result of reduced planting following the late onset of rains but the potato harvest increased by 10%, whilst yields improved by 7% compared to the prior year. “The Estate invested in additional irrigation infra- structure to underpin horticultural production going into the future.” At Victoria Foods, maize utilisation operated below expected capacity utilisation levels given the poor cereal output in the 2021/2022 agricultural season. However, milling operations at Victoria Foods con tributed 17.4% to Group turnover up from 4.3% in 2021. Underpinned by Victoria Foods’ continued recapi- talisation, Group’s inflation-adjusted revenues for the year increased by 39.4%, from ZWL 35.39 billion in the previous year, to ZWL 49.37 billion. The Group invested ZWL548.19 million from ZWL540.6 million last year in capital expenditure for the different Strategic Business Units (SBUs) mainly covering IT infrastructure for various Farm & City Centre and Agrifoods, poultry and irriga- tion infrastructure at Glenara Estates. However, the tone was different on the profitabili- ty side. The company incurred exchange losses which amounted to ZWL 6.1 billion on its foreign currency-denominated loans while income tax dou- bled to ZWL1.5 billion from ZWL0.724 million in 2021. Resultantly, the Group recorded a loss before tax of ZWL2.59 billion against a loss of ZWL0.75 billion for the prior year and ultimately a loss after tax of ZWL4 billion from a loss of ZWL1 billion last year. Operations review FARM & CITY ('FCC') The year ended 30 September 2022 was challeng- ing due to both high domestic and imported infla- tion, multiple exchange rates and reduced agricul- tural output, which decreased key revenue driver volumes by 21% compared to the prior year. However, FCC opened the Builders City branch and refurbished the Sanyati and Chitungwiza branches to increase the trading space and bring convenience to customers. GLENARA ESTATES Maize and soya beans output was 13% down from the previous season as a result of reduced planting following the late onset of rains. The potato harvest increased by 10%, whilst yields improved by 7% compared to the prior year. The Estate invested in additional irrigation infrastructure in order to underpin horticultural production going into the future. In addition, cattle pen fattening and breeding operations were maintained with reason- able success. AGRIFOODS Stockfeed sales registered a flat performance against the prior year. Inconsistent raw material supplies limited the potential growth over the prior year despite an otherwise vibrant market demand throughout the period. In addition, distortions in USD prices in part contributed to constrained sales volume growth, especially in H2. VICTORIA FOODS The flour mill operated at satisfactory capacity utilization levels for the year on the back of reasonable wheat availability from the 2021 winter season. Maize utilization however operated below expected capacity utilization levels given the poor cereal output in the 2021/2022 agricultural season. “The Board will be focused on strengthening its human capital base, improving business models to be adaptive to the changing environment and strengthening its operational systems for the benefit of all stakeholders.” 7 dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ 'URXJKWUHGXFHVHɝFDF\ PDUNHWV CFI Holdings

$IULFDQ6XQ MRLQVWKHJUHDWPLJUDWLRQ 8 dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ frican Sun is the latest ZSE-listing to migrate to the USD-denominated bourse, Ajoining several companies that have made intentions to join the VFEX, including Axia Cor- poration, National Foods and SeedCo Limited. The “great migration” is the culmination of insurmountable investment deterrents playing out on the VFEX, but is part of a wider weak mac- roeconomic environment. Inflation levels are out- rageous, there currently exists zero policy mea- sures to fix the exchange rate debacle, and going into an election, businesses are betting on the incessant economic decline despite the RBZ’s recent contractionary monetary policy. The VFEX, as a USD-denominated bourse has inherent advantages over the ZSE, which is denominated in the ailing local unit. The prerog- ative for the firms following the trend seems to be preservation and stability rather than the out- landish returns that typically emanate from a stock market largely influenced by an inflation pandemic. According to the group’s latest cautionary state- ment, “The Directors of African Sun Limited (the “Company”) wish to advise all shareholders and the investing public that the Board has approved the delisting of the Company from the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, immediately followed by its listing on the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange (the “Transaction”)” said Comp- nay Secretary, Venon Musimbe. The migration has been accelerated by the blood- bath that occurred on the ZSE in the last half of 2022 following tough measures from the state, central bank and treasury. Our resident Market Analyst, Tinashe Duma has an interesting take on these developments. He says “the tough mea- sures targeted at the ZSE resulted in a record bloodbath on the bourse, which saw some eligi- ble companies migrating to the US$-denominated bourse, VFEX, while some have announced their intention to migrate to the less volatile bourse”. Going back to 2020 and 2021, where the ZSE recorded the world’s best performance on inves- tor returns basis in US$ terms, notching by over 400% and 100% in the two years respectively, the bourse outperformed all investment arenas in the economy. Duma says “the trend was sustained in the first quarter of 2022 before the controversial measures SPLY. Compared to pre-covid-19, occupancy for Q3 at 53% was 1 percentage point bettethan the comparable period in 2019. City hotels recorded a combined 59% (2021: 42%) occupancy, whilst the Resort hotels, which had not fully recovered from the impact of Covid 19, achieved an occupancy level of 47% (2021: 13%). During the quarter under review, 15% (Q3 2021: 8%) of the business was foreign business, which is still lower than the average foreign business contribution of 20% pre-Covid 19. Occupancy for the nine months ended 30 Septem- ber 2022, at 45% increased by 20 percentage points compared to 25% which was recorded during the SPLY. However, YTD occupancy at 45% was still 2 percentage points below the 47% achieved in 2019. Inflation-adjusted revenue for the nine months was up 156% at ZWL22,1 billion against ZWL14,8 billion achieved during the SPLY. In terms of profitability, the Group recorded an encouraging inflation-adjusted EBITDA of ZWL13,5 billion, on the back of increasing busi- ness volumes that spurred the growth of the top line. Total assets as at 30 September 2022 closed at ZWL 112,4 billion. Turning to liquidity, the Group closed Q3 with cash and cash equivalents of ZWL8,9 billion. Subsequent to 30 September 2022, the Group paid an interim dividend of ZWL0.102118 per share plus an additional US$0.000545 per share, payable for all ordinary shares of the Company. Outlook Based on African Sun’s financial performance we are at liberty to hold the view that the hospitality group will continue on the positive growth trajec- tory, buoyed by the global economic recovery and the of course, the group’s investments. However, the company still has to contend with macroeconomic challenges, particularly with infla- tionary pressures, mainly due to the parallel market exchange rates’ pass-through effect on prices, which exerts pressure on margins. High inflation trends not only in the domestic market but also in all of African Sun’s major source mar- kets, rising energy and food prices and the dim prospects of a global recession, among a plethora of challenges, will continue to be a threat to the recovery of international tourism in the short to medium term. r e - cord- e d a n 8 0 % n o mi n al growth in 2022, which translated to a loss of -72% in US$ terms. This was mainly due to the failure of the market to catch up with inflation and currency devalua- tion, with the ZWL recording an -86% depreci- ation against the greenback”.The tightened money supply heavily weighed on demand for ZWL-denominated asset classes. The reputation of the bourse as a safe haven was shaken and this resulted in heightened sell-offs, and kicked off the “great migration”. However, the measures deployed by the mone- tary authorities were not without success, as witnessed in the fourth quarter of 2022 as annual and month-on-month inflation cooled down, resulting in a gradual kickback of the ZSE as prospects of value preservation started to entice investor appetite. In December, the bourse surged by a whopping 34% followed by 17% in January. In the first week of February, the bourse rose by a nominal 17%. Further, the RBZ has reduced the bank policy rate from 200% to 150% per annum, to align with its inflation outlook. Refer to the “In Focus” section for an analysis of how the monetary policy will affect the stock markets. Financial Performance According to African Sun’s latest financial update, for the Q3 ended 30 September, infla- tion-adjusted revenue for Q3 increased by 213% to ZWL8,8 billion against ZWL2,8 billion recorded during the SPLY. Occupancy for the three months ended 30 September 2022, was at 53% representing a 26 percentage points increase from the 27% achieved during the r +RVSLWDOLW\JLDQWVHWWRWUDGH=6(IRU86'GHQRPLQDWHG9)(;

9 dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ ART Holdings 3RVWVPL[HG4SHUIRUPDQFH waste paper as the recovery of local collections remains slow. However, the Group said the con- solidation of the Mill, Waste Col- lection and Paper converting busi- nesses to reduce operating costs is almost complete and will enable the segment to compete in the export market where demand remains firm. “Pre-production and engineering cash costs related to the Mill and the Converting equipment will necessitate increased borrowings in the short term,” the Group said in a trading update.Overall volumes for batteries were 1% lower than the prior year whilst export vol- umes fell by 13% on account of product shortages. “The division was cushioned by the greater inventory holding levels which had been put in place in response to the global supply chain disruptions.” Eversharp Volumes increased by 5% from last year as opportunities to meet increased local demand were lost due to delays in receiv- ing imported raw materials in December. The Group failed to meet its export target. Despite the failure to meet exports, the retooling of the Eversharp divi- sion which had been held back was completed in December and this will ensure increased pen pro- duction capacity to avert product supply shortages. Mutare Estates timber volumes declined by 29% during the period as the focus remained on sustain- ability. However, value addition and seed- ling projects enabled the division to maintain its revenues and profit- ability. In the outlook, the group said, “We anticipate that the environ- ment will remain complex and challenging as measures to elimi- nate distortions, stabilize the local currency and tame inflation are maintained.”It added, “However, the improved power supply will enable the optimization of the paper projects.” increased local battery and pen sales despite the intermittent suppl gaps arising from outages in power and water supplies while margins were spurred as costs have general- ly been recovered from customers with However, the commercialisation of the new Tissue Mill was affected by the unprecedented power chal- lenges during the period with the delay necessitating additional sup- port from lenders to ease the strain on the Group. Consequently, paper volumes decreased by 10% compared to last year as the anticipated efficiency improvements from the recapitalisa- tion program were delayed. The Mill continued to rely on imported Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE)-listed outfit, ART Holdings recorded mixed per- formance during the first quarter to FY2023 with depressed volumes due to deficiency in raw materials uptake despite an increase in reve- nues. Amalgamated Regional Trading Holdings Limited (ART) manufac- tures and distributes products in three key categories paper products, stationery and batteries. Its product portfolio is diverse ranging from tissue paper, sanitary ware and disposable napkins to writing pens and automotive, solar and standby batteries under the brand names Exide, Eversharp, Softex and Chloride. The company also has substantial interests in timber plantations and offers forest- ry resources management services. The Group’s volumes declined by 3% impacted by reduced plant availability resulting in significant recoveries, particularly at the Mill. This resulted in exports declining by 13% as orders could not be met in December. Failure to meet orders was caused by a number of factors, including erratic power and water supplies and disruption of global supply chains. Local head- winds slowed production while global headwinds impacted high production. The Group’s revenue grew to 39% while margins remained strong. Revenue was spurred by the The graph below shows the Group’s Q1 mixed performance

ZSE-listed telecommunications giant, Econet Wireless has released its Q3 trad- ing update with pleasing financial results, anchoring the company’s territory in the digital service provider (DSP) space. The transforma- tion by the group will enhance service delivery and unlock several opportunities for a wider base of customers in fulfilment of the compa- ny’s vision of a digitally connected future that leaves no Zimbabwean behind. The group has however stressed the issue of foreign currency deficiency to cater for the sup- plies needed for expansion. This focal point has been a restraining factor in the expansion of the telecommunication industry claiming the after-remittance value cannot fully sustain the maintenance of the industry. Despite these challenges, for the 9 months that ended 30 November 2022, voice and data vol- umes increased by 32% and 46% respectively relative to the same period in the previous year. To improve the quality of service, Econet plans to modernise the current core network to one that is virtualized to increase its ability to effi- ciently allocate network resources. However, the latest release of the ZWL-US$ concentration in the market may be permeated as contradictory to the accused shortage of forex. Since at first glance, 74% of the transac- tions are recorded in the USD currency, this can be construed as reflective of the said company’s revenue spread. Econet operates in a typically oligopolistic market and as such lacks viable competition which can translate to lower-quali- typroducts and higher prices. To remedy this, and to improve the quality of service, it plans to modernize the current core network to one that is virtualized, in order to increase its ability to efficiently allocate network resources. Modernization of the current know-your-client (KYC) system is also under- way in line with the DSP strategy. This will include biometric detection as well as digital identification, leading to better protection for customers against growing cyber-security risks. During the quarter under review, POTRAZ, the sector regulator, authorised two separate tariff increases of 61% in September and November. The group in its report argued that the tariff increases were not adjacent to inflation increases and as such their impact on operational expendi- ture was insignificant. Whilst these tariff reviews provided some relief in aligning operating costs with the current inflationary operating environment, they were below the inflation rate in the economy. Zimba- bwe’s current telecom tariffs remain below regional benchmarks, resulting in investments in the sector being undermined. Further, the incessant power outages in Q3 and Q4 undercut operations for most businesses in 2022. Due to the unreliable national power grid, Econet continued to invest in alternative power solutions in a bid to ensure network availability. Green energy solutions, such as solar and battery storage, require significant foreign cur- rency investment. The pace of investment has remained below desired levels, thereby impact- ing service quality. The business has also had to continue using diesel engine generators in the face of sharp declines in available grid power. Outlook The group remains optimistic about persisting with network upgrades. However, 2023 is set to create a new arena of challenges for Econet. The presence of a renowned disruptor of markets in Africa has given itchy boils to telecommunication stakeholders, some local Internet Service Provid- ers, and even some governments. Starlink is a satellite internet constellation launched by SpaceX. It works by beaming inter- net signals from satellites closer to the earth to terminals on the ground. It requires low infra- structure in providing internet accessibility, making it economically viable for underserved areas. The Starlink advantage is its utilization of SpaceX’s achievement of significantly lowering the entry barriers and cost of launching satellites into orbit at a very low failure rate. Internet adoption across the continent as of 2019 is only about 28.2% according to the Internation- al Communications Union. Africans and Zimba- bweans, in particular, are missing out on global growth opportunities such as crypto and stock trading which could add massive economic gains to traditional economies. These incentives are bound to create substantial competition for Econet. Overall, this will be good for the telecoms sector both in terms of quality service delivery and prices. Econet will have to deploy innovative strategies in order to retain its market share. (FRQHW:LUHOHVV &KURQLFOHVLQFUHDVHGYROXPHV GHVSLWHWKHXQUHOLDEOHQDWLRQDOSRZHUJULG 10 dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ I n some organisations in Zimbabwe, there is a noticeable increase in diverse groups’ par- ticipation in the workplace. What has caused major problems within some organisations is that calls for diversity, inclusivity and equality from industry leaders, captains of industry and authorities from the public sector and groups of lobbyists are so many, however, the issue is still vague. At times, it is limited by inflexible sys- tems which may lead to limitations in the way people perceive inequality, injustice, criminality and the perpetration of other related matters. While correlation does not equal causation greater gender and ethnic diversity in corporate leadership doesn’t automatically translate into more profit, the correlation does indicate that when companies commit themselves to diverse leadership, they are more successful. More diverse companies, we believe, are better able to win top talent and improve their customer orien- tation, employee satisfaction, and decision-mak- ing, and all that leads to a virtuous cycle of increasing returns. This in turn suggests that other kinds of diversity—for example, in age, sexual orientation, and experience are also likely to bring some level of competitive advantage for companies that can attract and retain such diverse talent. Listed corporations in Zimbabwe are conscious of the need to achieve inclusive equity growth by achieving optimal diversity within the workplace. Delta, which is the big- gest listed corporation on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange has a 17% female representation at the executive management level and a 25% female representation at the board level. The company said its intake of graduate management trainees has consistently thrived to achieve the target of not less than 50% females. Delta is focussing on increasing the ratio of female employees particularly at senior level. The com- pany is pursuing programs that aim to increase the female-employee ratio in the organisation, therefore addressing diversity. FBCH a listed financial services company, one of the top banks in Zimbabwe, has 565 employ- ees; of these, 43% are female. The company however fares worse off with a female ratio of just 11% at executive management level and just 12.5% female representation at board level. These statistics call for more work ahead and this phenomenon is regionwide. In South Africa, females make up 15% of executive positions and 30% of non-executive directors in listed corporations. A research study by McKinsey found that com- panies in the top quartile for gender or racial and ethnic diversity are more likely to have financial returns above their national industry medians. It also found that companies in the bottom quartile in these dimensions are statisti- cally less likely to achieve above-average returns. And diversity is probably a competitive differen- tiator that shifts market share toward more diverse companies over time. Another study highlights age diversity as a potential source of value for corporations if prop- erly harnessed. Age-diverse teams (generational diverse) are valuable because they bring together people with complementary abilities, skills, infor- mation, and networks. If managed effectively, they can offer better decision-making, more-pro- ductive collaboration, and improved overall per- formance, but only if members are willing to share and learn from their differences. A multi-generational team of product developers merging the seasoned experience and broad client network of its older members with the fresh per- spectives and up-to-date supplier network of its younger ones can use its age diversity to build something no generation could, on its own. According to the study by McKinsey on 500 public corporations across 4 continents, compa- nies in the top quartile for racial and ethnic diversity are 35 percent more likely to have financial returns above their respective national industry medians. +RZLWFDQ\LHOGLQFUHPHQWDOYDOXHIRU=LPEDEZHFRPSDQLHV :RUNSODFHGLYHUVLW\ *To Page 11

11 dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ Zimbabwe’s largest distributor and retailer of new tyres and tubes for the automo- tive industry, National Tyre Services has ices has reported reduced sales volumes in retreading and new tyres for the third quarter ended 31 December 2022 due to erratic power supplies. Power utility, ZESA has been struggling to gen- erate enough-average electricity required by the nation to sustain operations. During the period from October to December 2022, 12-18 hours load shedding schedules were introduced with other areas running up to 24 hours in darkness due to the depletion of water levels in Kariba dam for power generation and consistent failure of the ageing power plants at Hwange Power Station. The power utility even missed the 2023 electricity self-sufficiency target and the addition of Hwange’s Unit 7 on the national grid which was due by end of January 2023. The company’s new tyre sales volumes dropped by 1% to 8847 in the period under review from 8931 in the comparative 2021 period due to the negative impact of power outages on the Com- pany’s retail operations, which also affected the cumulative performance. Retreading sales volumes declined by 13% to 3081 from 3560 as retreading factories were severely affected by power challenges. Ultimately, year-to-date December 2022 overall volume performance decreased by 14% com- pared to the prior year as the energy crisis deepened, negatively affecting demand for tyre services across our retail outlets.“Depressed electricity generation during the third quarter of 2022 resulted in increased load curtailment countrywide,” the Company said in a trading update. “Revenue generation and customer service deliv- ery were negatively affected by power outages that disrupted the Company’s retreading facto- ries and retail operations,” added the Company. However, tyre services grew by 5% during the period under review compared to the same period last year courtesy of good workmanship that improved demand for tyre services across all our branches. In the outlook, the Company will continue to face power challenges as the government seems to be overwhelmed by the power crisis. Hence, there is a need to invest in solar systems. The Company needs to take transformational strategies, that will cost the Company’s earnings in the short-term but generate more returns in the long run. Zimbabwe is not only suffering from power anaemia as I illustrated in this article https://ww- w.bitlylinks.com/WTUsCflgs but from other head- winds such as curtailed consumer purchasing power due to usurious bank policy rate and rapid depreciation of the local currency. The Company, which heavily depends on Auction Market for foreign currency should be cautious this year as the elections mode is likely to cause scarcity of the US dollar as investors will be seeking to hedge their assets against the local currency. There is a need to employ cost-cutting strategies, increasing productivity though being mindful of the company budget. In 2021, the company lost a huge chink of prof- its due to power blackouts and foreign exchange delays. medians. It also found that companies in the bottom quartile in these dimensions are statisti- cally less likely to achieve above-average returns. And diversity is probably a competitive differen- tiator that shifts market share toward more diverse companies over time. Another study highlights age diversity as a potential source of value for corporations if prop- erly harnessed. Age-diverse teams (generational diverse) are valuable because they bring together people with complementary abilities, skills, infor- mation, and networks. If managed effectively, they can offer better decision-making, more-pro- ductive collaboration, and improved overall per- formance, but only if members are willing to share and learn from their differences. A multi-generational team of product developers merging the seasoned experience and broad client network of its older members with the fresh per- spectives and up-to-date supplier network of its younger ones can use its age diversity to build something no generation could, on its own. According to the study by McKinsey on 500 public corporations across 4 continents, compa- nies in the top quartile for racial and ethnic diversity are 35 percent more likely to have financial returns above their respective national industry medians. • Companies in the top quartile for gender diversity are 15 percent more likely to have financial returns above their respective national industry medians (exhibit). • Companies in the bottom quartile both for gender and for ethnicity and race are statistically less likely to achieve above-average financial returns than the average companies in the data set (that is, bottom-quartile companies are lagging rather than merely not leading). • In the United States, there is a linear relationship between racial and ethnic diversity and better financial performance: for every 10 percent increase in racial and ethnic diversity on the senior-executive team, earnings before inter- est and taxes (EBIT) rise 0.8 percent. • Racial and ethnic diversity have a stron- ger impact on financial performance in the United States than gender diversity, perhaps because earlier efforts to increase women’s repre- sentation in the top levels of business have already yielded positive results. • In the United Kingdom, greater gender diversity on the senior-executive team corre- sponded to the highest performance uplift in our data set: for every 10 percent increase in gender diversity, EBIT rose by 3.5 percent. • While certain industries perform better on gender diversity and other industries on ethnic and racial diversity, no industry or company is in the top quartile on both dimensions. We’re not suggesting that achieving greater diver- sity is easy. Women—accounting for an average of just 16 percent of the members of executive teams in the United States, 12 percent in the United Kingdom, and 6 percent in Brazil—re- main underrepresented at the top of corporations globally. The United Kingdom does comparative- ly better in racial diversity, albeit at a low level: some 78 percent of UK companies have senior-leadership teams that fail to reflect the demographic composition of the country’s labour force and population, compared with 91 percent for Brazil and 97 percent for the United States. These numbers underline the work that remains to be done, even as the case for greater diversity becomes more compelling. We live in a deeply connected and global world. It should come as no surprise that more diverse companies and institutions are achieving better performance. Most organizations must do more to take full advantage of diverse leadership teams’ opportuni- ties. That’s particularly true for their talent pipe- lines: attracting, developing, mentoring, sponsor- ing, and retaining the next generations of global leaders at all levels of organizations. Given the higher returns that diversity is expected to bring, we believe it is better to invest now since win- ners will pull further ahead and laggards will fall further behind. 'HSUHVVHGHOHFWULFLW\VXSSO\FXUWDLOV4RXWSXW 1DWLRQDO7\UH6HUYLFHV *From Page 10 The graph below summarises the Company’s Q3 performance

12 dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ As the expectation of a global recession intensifies, we reflect on how African Sun Limited (” The Company”) has been Masimba Holding's revenue soared at a com- pounded CAGR of 42% from FY2018 to FY2021; half-year revenue for the period ended June 31, 2022, increased by 52% to $9 billion attributable to rising orders from both the private and public sectors. Because of a diverse project portfolio, income earned in US dollars increased to 55% (2021: 35%) of total revenue in the half-year of 2022. Operating costs, which are on the rise as a result of inflationary pressures, will be easier to manage because the company now receives more than half of its income in USD terms. Masimba has a current ratio of 1.2, which shows that despite lingering recessionary con- cerns, the company has the financial means to stay afloat in the short term. Despite the mar- ket's liquidity constraints brought on by the National Treasury's temporary suspension of local payments, the company was able to main- tain favorable liquidity and gearing ratios by implementing strong and stringent working capi- tal measures. The fact that Masimba can provide positive free cash flows makes it a behemoth; in 2021, cash generated from operations increased to ZWL 2.5 billion from ZWL 616 million. With anFCF/Debt of 5% and an FCF yield of 15% in 2021, Masimba has been a credible source of free cash flow over the past two years. This indicates that the business is making enough money to quickly pay down its debt and fulfill its other obligations, such as dividend payouts. Free cash flows are what drives true growth and shareholder value, and Masimba's financial posi- tion is excellent in this regard. The business has three segments with the con- tracting business, driven by roads and earth- works, water, housing and mining infrastructure. The second segment is Properties segment’s swhich focuses on the refurbishment of its industrial assets to enhance their earning capaci- ty. Despite high capex demands, the business has so far managed to fund almost 80 percent of its financial position through equity. This is the type of strength that makes Masimba more attractive to long-term value investors. TheGroup also established a quarry mining sub- sidiary, Stemrich Investments (Private) Limited, whose plant was commissioned in the fourth quarter. Its main purpose is the manufacture of stone aggregates which are key in road con- struction.Because the nation has a significant infrastructure gap and the government is now undertaking a reconstruction effort, the construc- tion sector is anticipated to stay generally positive in 2023. Masimba is one of the main companies currently engaged to work on several of these projects. Here are a few significant government initiatives that Masimba is allegedly involved with. Building of the busy Beitbridge-Chirundu High- way, a 971-kilometer project that serves as the primary commerce route connecting South Afri- ca's southern ports to Zimbabwe and other SADC nations. The highway has been restored to about half of its original length. Beitbridge's modernization project will include the $300 mil- lion construction of 220 homes. The border post has undergone complete modernization. The Simon Mazorodze Road, Chitungwiza Road, and High Glen Road crossroads will soon have the US$85 million Mbudzi traffic interchange built there. Upon completion, a top-notch traffic interchange is anticipated to reduce congestion there. The majority of these government-led initiatives are expected to be finished by 2023. As a result, Masimba is probably going to be among Zimba- bwe's busiest businesses over the next 12 to 18 months. In conclusion, however, it is crucial to remember that this industry is cyclical by nature, making it opportunistic and not guaranteed to continue performing well for the next 5 to 10 years. 0DVLPED+ROGLQJV 86'GRPLQDWHGUHYHQXHWRLQVXODWHGHSUHFLDWLQJORFDOFXUUHQF\ ' ' 7HUPRI7KH:HHN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK ĂůŵĂƌŬĞƚƐ͘dŚĞƌŝƐŬŽĐĐƵƌƐǁŚĞŶĂĐŽŵƉĂŶLJĞŶŐĂŐĞƐŝŶĮŶĂŶĐŝĂůƚƌĂŶƐĂĐƟŽŶƐŽƌ ŵĂŝŶƚĂŝŶƐĮŶĂŶĐŝĂůƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚƐŝŶĂĐƵƌƌĞŶĐLJŽƚŚĞƌ ƚŚĂŶǁŚĞƌĞŝƚŝƐŚĞĂĚƋƵĂƌ- ƚĞƌĞĚ͘&ŽƌĞdžĂŵƉůĞ͕ZŝŽŝŵǁŚŝĐŚŝƐŚĞĂĚƋƵĂƌƚĞƌĞĚŝŶŝŵďĂďǁĞďƵƚŝƐĞŶŐĂŐĞĚ ŝŶŝŶƚĞƌŶĂƟŽŶĂů ƚƌĂĚĞŵĂLJ ƐĞůůŐŽůĚ ƚŽ^ŽƵƚŚĨƌŝĐĂ͕ ĨŽƌŝŶƐƚĂŶĐĞ͕ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞƌĞďLJ ƌĞĐĞŝǀĞZĂŶĚƐƚŽƐĞƩůĞƚƌĂŶƐĂĐƟŽŶƐ͘ĞĐĂƵƐĞƚŚĞĮŶĂŶĐŝĂůƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚƐŽĨZŝŽŝŵ ĂƌĞƌĞƉŽƌƚĞĚŝŶŝŵďĂďǁĞĂŶŽůůĂƌƐ͕ŝƚŝƐĞdžƉŽƐĞĚƚŽĨŽƌĞŝŐŶĞdžĐŚĂŶŐĞƌŝƐŬ͘dŚĞ ĮŶĂŶĐŝĂůƚƌĂŶƐĂĐƟŽŶƐ͕ǁŚŝĐŚĂƌĞƌĞĐĞŝǀĞĚĨƌŽŵ^ŽƵƚŚĨƌŝĐĂŶŝŶZĂŶĚƐ͕ŵƵƐƚďĞ ĐŽŶǀĞƌƚĞĚ ƚŽ ŝŵďĂďǁĞĂŶ ĚŽůůĂƌƐ ƚŽ ďĞ ƌĞƉŽƌƚĞĚ ŽŶ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ͛Ɛ ĮŶĂŶĐŝĂů ƐƚĂƚĞŵĞŶƚƐ͘ŚĂŶŐĞƐŝŶƚŚĞĞdžĐŚĂŶŐĞƌĂƚĞďĞƚǁĞĞŶƚŚĞZĂŶĚĂŶĚƚŚĞŝŵďĂďǁĞ- ĂŶ ĚŽůůĂƌ ;ĚŽŵĞƐƟĐ ĐƵƌƌĞŶĐLJͿ ǁŽƵůĚ ďĞ ƚŚĞ ƌŝƐŬ͕ ŚĞŶĐĞ ƚŚĞ ƚĞƌŵ ĨŽƌĞŝŐŶ exchange risk. &ŽƌĞŝŐŶĞdžĐŚĂŶŐĞƌŝƐŬĐĂŶďĞĐĂƵƐĞĚďLJĂƉƉƌĞĐŝĂƟŽŶͬĚĞƉƌĞĐŝĂƟŽŶŽĨƚŚĞďĂƐĞ ĐƵƌƌĞŶĐLJ͕ĂƉƉƌĞĐŝĂƟŽŶͬĚĞƉƌĞĐŝĂƟŽŶŽĨƚŚĞĨŽƌĞŝŐŶĐƵƌƌĞŶĐLJ͕ŽƌĂĐŽŵďŝŶĂƟŽŶŽĨ ƚŚĞ ƚǁŽ͘/ƚŝƐĂŵĂũŽƌ ƌŝƐŬ ƚŽĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌ ĨŽƌĞdžƉŽƌƚĞƌƐͬŝŵƉŽƌƚĞƌƐĂŶĚďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐĞƐ ƚŚĂƚƚƌĂĚĞŝŶŝŶƚĞƌŶĂƟŽŶĂůŵĂƌŬĞƚƐ͘ dŚĞƚŚƌĞĞƚLJƉĞƐŽĨĨŽƌĞŝŐŶĞdžĐŚĂŶŐĞƌŝƐŬŝŶĐůƵĚĞƚƌĂŶƐĂĐƟŽŶƌŝƐŬ͕ĞĐŽŶŽŵŝĐƌŝƐŬ͕ ĂŶĚƚƌĂŶƐůĂƟŽŶƌŝƐŬ͘ ϭ͘dƌĂŶƐĂĐƟŽŶƌŝƐŬ dƌĂŶƐĂĐƟŽŶƌŝƐŬŝƐƚŚĞƌŝƐŬĨĂĐĞĚďLJĂĐŽŵƉĂŶLJǁŚĞŶŵĂŬŝŶŐĮŶĂŶĐŝĂůƚƌĂŶƐĂĐ- ƟŽŶƐďĞƚǁĞĞŶũƵƌŝƐĚŝĐƟŽŶƐ͘dŚĞƌŝƐŬŝƐƚŚĞĐŚĂŶŐĞŝŶƚŚĞĞdžĐŚĂŶŐĞƌĂƚĞďĞĨŽƌĞ ƚƌĂŶƐĂĐƟŽŶ ƐĞƩůĞŵĞŶƚ͘ ƐƐĞŶƟĂůůLJ͕ ƚŚĞ ƟŵĞ ĚĞůĂLJ ďĞƚǁĞĞŶ ƚƌĂŶƐĂĐƟŽŶ ĂŶĚ ƐĞƩůĞŵĞŶƚŝƐƚŚĞƐŽƵƌĐĞŽĨƚƌĂŶƐĂĐƟŽŶƌŝƐŬ͘ Ϯ͘ĐŽŶŽŵŝĐƌŝƐŬ ĐŽŶŽŵŝĐƌŝƐŬ͕ĂůƐŽŬŶŽǁŶĂƐĨŽƌĞĐĂƐƚƌŝƐŬ͕ŝƐƚŚĞƌŝƐŬƚŚĂƚĂĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ͛ƐŵĂƌŬĞƚ ǀĂůƵĞŝƐŝŵƉĂĐƚĞĚďLJƵŶĂǀŽŝĚĂďůĞĞdžƉŽƐƵƌĞƚŽĞdžĐŚĂŶŐĞƌĂƚĞŇƵĐƚƵĂƟŽŶƐ͘^ƵĐŚĂ ƚLJƉĞŽĨƌŝƐŬŝƐƵƐƵĂůůLJĐƌĞĂƚĞĚďLJŵĂĐƌŽĞĐŽŶŽŵŝĐĐŽŶĚŝƟŽŶƐƐƵĐŚĂƐŐĞŽƉŽůŝƟĐĂů ŝŶƐƚĂďŝůŝƚLJĂŶĚͬŽƌŐŽǀĞƌŶŵĞŶƚƌĞŐƵůĂƟŽŶƐ͘ ϯ͘dƌĂŶƐůĂƟŽŶƌŝƐŬ dƌĂŶƐůĂƟŽŶƌŝƐŬ͕ĂůƐŽŬŶŽǁŶĂƐƚƌĂŶƐůĂƟŽŶĞdžƉŽƐƵƌĞ͕ƌĞĨĞƌƐƚŽƚŚĞƌŝƐŬĨĂĐĞĚďLJĂ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJŚĞĂĚƋƵĂƌƚĞƌĞĚĚŽŵĞƐƟĐĂůůLJďƵƚĐŽŶĚƵĐƟŶŐďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐŝŶĂĨŽƌĞŝŐŶũƵƌŝƐ- ĚŝĐƟŽŶ͕ ĂŶĚ ŽĨ ǁŚŝĐŚ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŵƉĂŶLJ͛Ɛ ĮŶĂŶĐŝĂů ƉĞƌĨŽƌŵĂŶĐĞ ŝƐ ĚĞŶŽƚĞĚ ŝŶ ŝƚƐ ĚŽŵĞƐƟĐĐƵƌƌĞŶĐLJ͘dƌĂŶƐůĂƟŽŶ ƌŝƐŬŝƐŚŝŐŚĞƌǁŚĞŶĂĐŽŵƉĂŶLJŚŽůĚƐĂŐƌĞĂƚĞƌ ƉŽƌƟŽŶŽĨŝƚƐĂƐƐĞƚƐ͕ůŝĂďŝůŝƟĞƐ͕ŽƌĞƋƵŝƟĞƐŝŶĂĨŽƌĞŝŐŶĐƵƌƌĞŶĐLJ͘ LJĚĞĮŶŝƟŽŶ͕ĨŽƌĞŝŐŶĞdžĐŚĂŶŐĞƌŝƐŬƌĞĨĞƌƐƚŽƚŚĞůŽƐƐŽƌŐĂŝŶƚŚĂƚĂďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ŵĂLJŝŶĐƵƌĂƐĂƌĞƐƵůƚŽĨĐƵƌƌĞŶĐLJŇƵĐƚƵĂƟŽŶƐ͘ hŶĚĞƌƐƚĂŶĚŝŶŐƚŚĞƚĞƌŵ &ŽƌĞŝŐŶĞdžĐŚĂŶŐĞƌŝƐŬŝƐĂůƐŽƌĞĨĞƌƌĞĚƚŽĂƐĞdžĐŚĂŶŐĞƌĂƚĞƌŝƐŬ͘/ƚŝƐĂŵĂũŽƌƌŝƐŬ ƚŽĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌĨŽƌĞdžƉŽƌƚĞƌƐ͕ŝŵƉŽƌƚĞƌƐ͕ĂŶĚďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐĞƐƚŚĂƚƚƌĂĚĞŝŶŝŶƚĞƌŶĂƟŽŶͲ

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$57&RUSRUDWLRQ :KDWWKHSDVWWHOOVXVDERXWWKHPDQXIDFWXULQJ JURXSȇVUHFHVVLRQSHUIRUPDQFHV n this article, we will analyse the current performance of Amalgamated Regional ITrading Limited (“the company, or “ART Corp”) as the base performance at which it will enter the possible looming recession. We will then analyse the performance of the company in preceding recessionary periods, as a means to approximate its general performance in times of declining demand. Finally, we will consider the arbitrary factors that may cause ART Corp’s performance in the coming recession to deviate from its prior recessionary performance. The purpose of this investigation is centred on the idea that past performance is useful in predicting future performance. By understanding the how and why of ART Corp’s performance in prior recessions we can gain insights on how they are likely to perform in future recessions. In the last few years, Art Corp has faced many challenges that have limited its scope of investment. From product range expansion plans that had to be postponed to export opportunities that were foregone due to policy inconsistencies, the company failed to sufficiently utilize its capacity. The company’s 2022 annual statements for the year ended September 2022 reported an increase in gearing of 2%, thereby increasing the debt-to-equity ratio from 10% to 12%. This puts pressure on the future earnings of the company and chokes future investments since repayment of the loans will be calculated according to the interest rate set by The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe. Although the rate was revised downwards to 150% in the first MPC meeting of 2023, this remains high by regional standards. Moreover, given the willingness shown by the government to aggressively and swiftly increase interest rates sharply in response to inflation, increases in debt obligations pose significant risks to growth opportunities. Already, the company has temporarily deferred some of its projects, such as the broadening of its product range within the batteries business unit, thereby forgoing the opportunity to increase its share of the growing batteries market. The driver of the increase in borrowing was the completion of the Paper Mill project in Kadoma which the company expects to future-proof the group’s perfor mance. The paper business unit was the big loser in terms of volumes in the period in review. On the back of a 15% decrease, the completion and commencement of production in the Kadoma Paper Mill are expected to improve volumes. For the investment to be worthwhile, the improvement in volumes must result in an increase in earnings that exceed the cost of loan repayments used to finance the paper mill, all within a time horizon that is acceptable to the average creditor. Overall volumes within the period in review grew by 10%, and overall export volumes increased by 12%. The latter was driven by strong demand from Zambia. The big winner, in terms of volume growth, was the stationary business unit which grew by 39%. Eversharp, the brand name of the stationary unit, saw an increase in export volumes of up to 177% from the prior year due to the low base of 2021 and the recovery owing to the easing of global lockdown regulations. Moreover, the business unit significantly supported the company’s foreign currency through sales in the informal sector which benefits from sales with favourable terms. This was useful in the improvement of raw materials and spare parts availability in the second half of 2022. Overall revenues for the year 2022 were ZWL 19.6 billion, an increase of 3% from the ZWL 19 billion recorded in 2021. Revenue performance was supported by increases in prices that were in line with inflation. The price inelasticity of the company’s product range can be assumed by the ability to increase prices while still observing volume increases. Product inelasticity is a safeguard attribute during times of recession. It is advisable to gear a product mix towards the production and trading of such product categories to weather economic contraction. Profit for the period stood at ZWL 1,46 billion compared to the loss of ZWL 2.5 billion in the prior year-2021. The year 2019 and 2020 were both recessionary periods, in which the Zimbabwean economy contracted by 6.5% and 5.3% respectively. In 2019, overall volumes contracted by 18% as a result of foreign currency shortages and liquidity constraints. However, export volumes for batteries and paper increased by 4% and 7% respectively, on the back of consistent product availability and increased selling effort in Zambia and Malawi. Moreover, volumes for solar and industrial batteries increased by 12% from the prior year. The drive at Softex to expand its product range yielded positive results with volume increases of 8% for both hygiene and femcare. Prices were adjusted following the rising cost of production thereby allowing revenue to increase to ZWL$267 million, from ZWL$212 million. Subsequent to the increase in the number of Exide Express branches, the company increased the number of employees from 802 to 864 but failed to utilize this increase in labour to increase capacity utilization. This is likely due to the frequent power shortages faced by the country during the period. Despite the challenges, the company was able to achieve an increase in profit after tax of ZWL$ 100247000 from ZWL$ 24622000 in the previous period. This was done by the company’s ability to contain operating costs as they decreased from 25% to 23% of turnover. In 2020, the operational environment was further complicated by the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic which disrupted global supply chains and constrained demand. Business units remained under pressure to continuously review pricing due to the persistent hyperinflation that characterized the operating environment. However, the company’s overall volumes for the year increased by 8% compared to the prior year. The batteries business segment continued to drive the Group’s performance with battery volumes increasing by 17% for the year. Export volumes increased by 13% for the year as the division managed to grow its presence in the region. The biggest loser within the period, in terms of volume growth, was the paper business unit which contracted by 37% compared to the same period last year. The continuing effects of the looming global recession are predicted to make the operating environment hard. Hopefully, government actions to control inflation and stabilize the currency rate will be examined in a way that recognizes the importance of assisting the manufacturing sector. With the current inflationary environment and the high-interest rates being set by the central bank, it will be prudent for the company to maintain a low level of debt. To support operations and investments, ART Corp is well advised to increase its cash generation activities. This can be done by increasing their drive further into the regional market. 14 dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ JURXSȇVUHFHVVLRQSHUIRUPDQFHV n this article, we will analyse the current completion and commencement of production increased by 12% from the prior year. The drive

7LJHUH5HLW %HFRPHVDUHDOWLJHUSURSHUW\ZLQJLQWKHLQGXVWU\ he real-estate sector in Zimbabwe seemed to have failed to find ground Tdespite a wave of a possible recovery in late 2021. The sector was heavily hit by the Covid-19 pandemic from 2020 to early 2021 as occupancy levels declined to a record low, globally, following the introduction of remote working which left commercial properties vacant. The pandemic also weighed on returns as incomes were subdued by the economic activities halt which led to low productivity and a recession in some parts of the world. The tourism sector was also put on hold for a longer duration during the pandemic era, and this led to almost zero occupancy for tourism properties including hotels. After a long hour of darkness, Terrace Africa’s Tigere Real Estate Investment Trust (TREIT), which was introduced on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) in November 2022, has hit a bull’s eye after declaring US$152,577 (being 0.021 United States cents per unit) as well as an additional ZWL 75,816,772 (being 10.54 Zimbabwe cents per unit) in respect of the period ended December 31, 2022. Since its launch, TREIT has delivered steady and consistent performance reports and currently has a market capitalization of over ZW$36.4 billion as of February 2023. TREIT has also proven to be a reliable investment due to its diversified portfolio of commercial and residential properties, offering investors long-term capital appreciation and income. At the time when they planned to go to market, Tigere had about 719 323 000 units available for sale at a planned $28 ZWL per unit. The share price has experienced an appreciation of 102% in less than a quarter, which is mind-blowing even after adjusting for 31.2% currency depreciation for the period under review. Historically, the ZSE-listed property sector has been the least performing sector, operating on consecutive loss margins with two players: Mashonaland Holdings (MASH) and First Mutual Properties (FMP). Dominated by First Looking ahead, Tigere is set to restore the legacy of the property sector in the country due to its investment affordability. The rental cost is constantly increasing, thus correlating with the property fund income. The Zimbabwean infrastructure legacy can find its way back to pre-covid status and possibly pre-industrial and infrastructure decline levels that have been incessant over the past two decades. Mutual Properties in terms of its sharp upward share price movement, the industry has been operating below the breakeven point. Terrace Africa investment trust has made clear its mandate to dominate the sector after its maiden declaration and the 2022 property dominance after the completion of the US$20 million Highland Park Mall in Harare and the Chinamano corner complexes. According to Brett Abrahamse, a representative of Terrance Africa Asset Management, the REIT performance since listing has yielded large returns on investments. This has emerged highly after the festive season saw the complex accumulating hospitality outlets in a short. “We have seen exceptional turnovers from our retail and food-related tenants. The performance of the portfolio was in line with expectations and our assets will reach 100% occupancy levels within Q1 of 2023. The key characteristic of a REIT distributing regular income is now a reality in Zimbabwe” he said. Outlook 15 dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ

16 dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ Elon Musk-owned, SpaceX, has announced plans to launch Star- link, its satellite Internet service, As technology develops, it is increas- ingly essential for business owners in Zimbabwe to invest more in artificial intelligence (AI) as a means of enhancing management systems and workers' productivity. Using automated chat boxes is just one use of AI investment; other business processes can also be integrated to be automat- ed. Games have been used to measure AI advancements since the "birth" of AI in the 1950s: Deep Blue won Chess, Watson beat the top Jeopardy contes- tants, AlphaGo defeated a world champion in Go, and Libratus defeat- ed the top Texas Hold'Em poker players. In the end, each of these wins contributed significantly to the development of AI. The future lies in multi-player, real-time strategy games. This is only one illustration of how artificial intelligence is far more intel- ligent than the brightest human. A.I systems and management Since time passes, AI systems like this can act as partners to strengthen managers' talents. These systems could be trained to work with manag- ers to cooperatively resolve significant business problems rather than replac- ing or competing with them. The combination of an AI's processing power's (almost) limitless reason and the intuition and judgment of quality managers promises to be unbeatable in the business world. The most significant technology under development at the moment is AI. AI enables people, businesses, and com- munities to reach their full potential by assisting in the earlier diagnosis of diseases and allowing users to access information in their native tongue. And it creates new possibilities that have the potential to greatly enhance the lives of billions of people. Source: Marketting Charts Chat GPT Launched by OpenAI in November 2022, ChatGPT (Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer) is a chatbot. The GPT-3 family of big language models from OpenAI provides the foundation for this system, which has been fine-tuned (a method of transfer learning) using both supervised and reinforcement learning strategies. On November 30, 2022, ChatGPT was introduced as a prototype. It soon gained popularity for its thorough responses and clear responses in a variety of subject areas. One key flaw was noted to be its uneven factual correctness. After ChatGPT was released, OpenAI (the business that owns Chat GPT) was valued at US$29 billion. Bringing the benefits of AI into everyday products For billions of users, employing AI to enhance search has a long history. The first Google Transformer model, BERT, was innovative in its ability to comprehend the nuances of spoken language. Two years ago, Google also unveiled MUM, a 1,000 times more potent version of BERT with multilin- gual, next-level information compre- hension that can identify key moments in films and deliver urgent informa- tion, such as crisis support, in more languages. Now, Google's most recent AI innova- tions are building on this by develop- ing completely new methods to inter- act with information, from language and images to video and audio. These technologies include LaMDA, PaLM, Imagen, and MusicLM. In addition, Google is attempting to incorporate these most recent AI developments into its products, starting with Search. One of the most popular Google services is search, so adding A.I. to it will completely transform the game. One of the most interesting possibili- ties is how AI might enhance human understanding of information and more effectively transform it into valuable knowledge, making it simpler for people to find what they're look- ing for and complete tasks. Finding out what you actually need to know about a subject can take a lot of work, and individuals frequently want to consider several points of view. The tech world's reception to ChatGPT: Microsoft doesn't mind if employees use ChatGPT as long as they don't share any "sensitive data" with it. The technology that powers ChatGPT is already being used by firms like Meta, Canva, and Shopify in their customer support chatbots, but experts caution that businesses should be aware of generative AI's originality and unpredictability. Companies in Zimbabwe are still "sleeping" on this technology, and Zimbabwean manage- ment shouldn't disregard it. Bard by Google Google has been working on technol- ogies that turn extensive research and technological advances into goods that genuinely benefit people. That has been Google's experience with huge language models. Google unveiled its Language Model for Dialogue Appli- cations in 2021, enabling the next-generation of language and con- versational capabilities (or LaMDA for short). With the help of LaMDA, Google has been developing the experimental conversational AI service Bard. By allowing trusted testers access to it in 2023 before making it more broadly accessible to the public in the following weeks, the Company is moving forward. Bard aims to bring together the depth of human knowledge with the strength, wit, and inventiveness of our massive language models. It uses data from the internet to deliver original, excellent answers. Bard can serve as a creative outlet and a springboard for curiosity, enabling users to do things like explain recent scientific findings from NASA's James Webb Space Telescope to a 9-year-old or learn more about the top football strikers of the moment before receiving drills to improve their skills. The competition from Bard will be fierce for Chat GPT, and investing in these A.I. apps will be interesting for Zimbabwean businesses. The software will initially be made available using LaMDA's lightweight model. We can scale to more people and get more input because this much simpler model uses a lot less comput- er power. This, along with their own internal testing and external evalua- tion, will be crucial in ensuring that Bard's solutions reach a high standard for quality, safety, and informational veracity. It will be fascinating to eval- uate whether the corporation will con- tinue to learn from this initial Bard deployment and make improvements to the product's quality and speed. Experiences built on these concepts must be presented to the public in a brave and responsible manner. The future of software and technology companies is dedicated to properly developing AI because of the follow- ing reasons: One of the first business- es to release a set of AI Principles was Google in 2018. The business keeps giving its researchers training and resources, collaborates with authorities and other groups to create standards and best practices, and works with communities and special- ists to make AI safe and practical. Google continues to be brave with innovation and prudent in its approach, whether it is using AI to drastically improve its own products or making these potent tools available to others. In conclusion, Zimbabwean businesses profit immensely from looking at AI from a business capabilities viewpoint rather than from a technological stand- point. Automating corporate processes, getting insight through data analysis, and engaging both staff and customers can be viewed broadly as the three key business needs. 6WDUOLQNWRODXQFKLQ ZimbDEZH :KDWLWPHDQVIRUWKHUXUDOSRSXODWLRQDQGFRPSHWLWRUV

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dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ 18 $QDO\VLV As 2023 global growth prospects remain anaemic and the risk of recession in other large economies continues looming due to Both the military, police and the courts played crucial roles in the 2002 elections, 2008, 2013 and 2018 elections respectively where the then MDC-A Party led by Nelson Chamisa lost in a controver- sial constitutional court rule chaired by former Chief Justice, Luke Malaba. Zimbabwean elections are characterised by bountiful reports of assaults on the government critics and this was rife in 2008 re-run elections when ZANU-PF refused to hand over power to the opposition party of the time. This affected the country’s risk index to wane business sentiment in the country. Due to political violence especially during elections, major compa- nies shut down causing shortages of basic com- modities, and unemployment thus, affecting con- sumer purchasing power. When President Mnangagwa took power in 2017 through a coup and in 2018 through a controversial election that waited for 2 weeks to announce Presi- dential results, 96 companies have been reportedly shut, twenty companies closed in the month Presi- dent Mnangagwa took over in November 2017, and 13 the following month. The largest number of closures was in May 2018 due to election panic as quoted by the Sunday Times. According to The Standard published on March 10 2019, over 50 companies closed operations since President Em- merson Mnangagwa came to power in November 2017, throwing thousands of people out of employ- ment. FDI inflows declined from US$0.94 billion in 2018 to a lower of US$19 billion in 2020 due to Second Republic’s political toxicity. Due to exorbitant borrowing rates weak demand is expected to rock in 2023 exerting a significant drag on business activity this year as elevated borrowing costs retards companies’ revenue perfor- mance hence growth capacity. Of these, policy inconsistencies are a key factor ahead of elections that will threaten the competi- tiveness of the nation’s producers and run the risk of diverting supply chains and business activity away from the country. Companies further face a risk of downside policies due to excessive political influence on economic issues. As I predicted last year in my article dubbed Hawkish or Dovish: A look into Man- gudya’s monetary stance, I said the RBZ and Finance Ministry will shy off the aggressive mone- tary stance and loosen the bolts as high ZWL liquidity will be a necessity to fund government’s election campaigns. In the latest Monetary Policy Statement released by the Central Bank on the 2nd of February 2023, Repo Rates were slashed by 50 percentage points, from a higher of 200% to a lower of 150%. The government has been spread- ing utterances of a tight money supply stance but the parallel market is saying otherwise. Since November 2022, Parallel Market Rates soared from a lower of 850 to a higher of 1200 by January 2023 which proves that RBZ was not sleeping pumping more money into the market: fewer US dollars being chased by a pool of Zimbabwe dollars. Further, a slash of interest rates means ΖQGXVWU\GRXEWIXODERXWJURZWKSURVSHFWV 5HFHVVLRQQRWRXW RIWKHSLFWXUH to trade wars between the world's largest econo- mies, the USA and China, and geo-political tensions caused by Russian imperialistic aggression on Ukraine, the business community remains con- vinced that the Zimbabwean situation will be tougher than expected given an already polarised political and economic setup. On a global scale, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), expects around a third of the global economy to enter a recession in 2023 and it has cut its forecast of global GDP for the year to 2.9% from 3.2% in 2022. In a world of 'poly-crisis', how can companies pivot to resilience, while staying profitable and sustainable? The Zimbabwean economic environment is a field of contestation as far as political and economic policies are concerned. In a statement accompany- ing the full year ended 30 September 2022, ZSE-listed largest corporation by market capitalisa- tion Delta Corporation said, “The Zimbabwean operating environment is expected to remain com- plex and challenging in the face of difficult choices on economic policy, the unfolding global supply constraints, rising inflation and uncertainties of the COVID-19 pandemic and the country gears for a general election in 2023.” Other big industrial players which concur with Delta Corporation include but are not limited to Econet Wireless Zimbabwe, Innscor Africa, RioZim, Ariston and Seed Co Limited. Other likely headwinds pointed out by the industry include an aggressively tightened monetary policy system and power outages which however, are likely to be dealt with at the national level as Kariba Dam water levels are set to improve before the end of the summer while Units 7 and 8 of Hwange Power Station are set to be added to the national grid earlier this year. However, businesses face a key "triple challenge" in 2023, elections fever due to the upcoming presi- dential general elections which is set to up the Zimbabwe dollar liquidity, continued high prices of key inputs and weakening demand due to contin- ued disruptions in global supply chains and an aggressive monetary policy stance as well as policy inconsistencies leading to an influx of Zimbabwe dollar liquidity. Among the triple threats, election fever seems to be the toughest of all. Zimbabwean elections are usually infested by retro- gressive and reactionary monetary policies that wound the economy both at macro and micro levels. During elections, the government resorts to the cranking machine, bypassing RBZ’s degree of independence thus influencing it to pump more money into the system to fund especially the secu- rity personnel. Security personnel plays a crucial role during ZANU-PF elections and are blamed by the international community for political harassment of opposition members, political arrests and selec- tive application of the law in favour of the ruling party. In order to do these, they need to be cush- ioned. government, which is the biggest holder of the Zimba- bwe dollar will be able to borrow more and fund its suppliers though at a cost of renewed inflationary pres- sures. Policy inconsistency has already begun. It is not surprising that the monthly reserve money will be increasing at an increasing rate up to the election month. The 2018 Zimbabwe Auditor General report shows that in 2018, the latest previous election year, transactions worth US$5.8 billion were made with financial irregu- larities ranging from unsupported expenditure, excess expenditure, outstanding payments to suppliers of goods and services, transfers of funds without treasury approv- al among other issues. This constituted about 82% of government expenditure for the year. The result was renewed inflationary pressures in 2019 and 2020 respectively leading to the dumping of the Zimbabwe dollar. Based on history, Zimbabwe has a record of printing more money, upsetting the principle of balance between supply and demand mostly to fund government initia- tives towards elections. From June 2017 and June 2018 towards another elections period, RBZ increased broad money by 41% from US$6.5 billion to US$9.1 billion with a month-on-month increase of 6.84%. However, the following year was catastrophic one associated with shortages of fuel, core food staffs like bread and a year-on-year inflation rate which soared above 500%. According to the latest MPS, Broad money (M3) grew to ZWL2 338.26 billion by end-December 2022, com- pared to ZWL1 119.70 billion recorded in June 2022. The Zimbabwe dollar-denominated deposits also rose by ZWL548.08 billion between June 2022 and December 2022. To make it a triple threat in 2023 is the geo-political tension in Eastern Europe between Russia and Ukraine which heavily weighing on Africa, through disruption of supply chains and climate change which is impacting weather patterns. Zimbabwe is a net importer of fertilis- er, wheat and fuel commodities mostly imported from Russia and Ukraine. Due to geopolitical tensions, to be most affected is the agricultural sector, one of the key drivers for GDP behind mining. Companies within the agricultural sector will feel the pinch as well as those in the transport sector due to a record high fuel prices. How may prepare in such times? I will equate Zimbabwe’s 2023 situation to a recession. Therefore, I will take how various companies globally do to survive in a turmoil economic environment and use Delta Corporations, Zimbabwe’s largest company by market capitalisation as a case study. During difficult times like this, companies respond differently depending on their strengths and weaknesses to deal with threats and maximise opportunities. The best way is to be a transformational manager, than a continuity manager. In preparation for an economic crush in 2023, Twitter, Amazon, Google and Tesla laid down thousands of workers to cut expenditures. Meta, Alpha Media Hold- ings and Ariston Holdings also cut the number of employees during the years 2019 to 2023 when Zimba- bwe registered a hyper-inflated environment. *To Page 19

19 dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ world,35% are located in 10 countries and from those countries, Zimbabwe is nowhere to be found. Syria takes first place with over 2 mil- lion refugees and India takes 10th refugees place in countries with the most displaced people with close to a million. In this regard, further analysis of the other indicators must be done. State Apparatus(police and army) The military has become the key decision-mak- ing element in most countries. The main role of the army and police is to serve the citizens of the country as the priority. A military officer who expands his interests into non-military areas necessarily weakens his corporate identity and dilutes his responsibility by dividing it into both military and non-military spheres (through con- flicts of interest. In modern society, politics has found a way of mixing with the state apparatus for their inter- ests. In the case of Zimbabwe, the state appara- tus has been used countless times for self-inter- est. Just in 2017, the former president of Zimba- bwe, Robert Mugabe was deposed through the assistance of organised strategies by the state apparatus. In as much as people were happy about the actions in this regard, the fact remains that the army failed to be apolitical in this regard. Public service A public service is a service intended to serve all members of a community. Public services include services provided by a government to people living within its jurisdiction, either directly through public sector agencies or by financing the provision of services by private businesses or voluntary organizations. Certain services should be available to all, regardless of income, physical ability or mental acuity. Exam- ples of such services include the fire brigade, police, air force, and paramedics (see also public service broadcasting). Looking at the Zimbabwean case, however, all these services are available but the question that arises is the accessibility of such services. Public service delivery in Zimbabwe is amongst the worst in Africa. Every decade Zimbabwe undergoes a cholera outbreak for example and this can be blamed on poor service delivery and poor sanitation provision in the country.2008 and 2018 are years the country experienced cholera outbreaks with the latter being less fatal than the initial. Burst sewage pipes and slow service delivery have become characteristics of the Zim- babwean situation. Factionalized Elites Representative leadership, identity(nationalism), distribution of resources and equity are some of the factors considered when assessing a coun- try’s fictionalised elites. Zimbabwe is affected. The concentration of wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few people and the select few have got to the extent of plundering the econo- my by being direct beneficiaries of quasi-fiscal activity returns. When quasi-fiscal activities occur, the majority tend to suffer at the risk of a select few. In the case of Zimbabwe, key quasi-fiscal activities include the provision of Zupco busses which are benefiting a few(owners of the busses) at the expense of citizen utility. When it comes to big-money tenders in Zimbabwe, the lack of due diligence is alarming to the extent that getting a tender is almost impossible with no nepotism. Conclusion: Upcoming elections to determine a lot The upcoming elections will be interesting for Zimbabwe. The fragility index usually comes out around September and the elections might be before that meaning that many factors have to be considered to determine if Zimbabwe's position on the fragility index will worsen or not. Violence will also be considered as well as possible extremism. Looking at the past 4 years, Zimbabwe has been getting ranked 10th consistently. In 2023 we can also expect the same trajectory and the position could even worsen and we could see the coun- try's fragility index getting worse. world,35% are located in 10 countries and from found. Syria takes first place with over 2 mil- lion refugees and India takes 10th refugees place in countries with the most displaced people with close to a million. In this regard, further analysis of the other indicators must be The military has become the key decision-mak- ing element in most countries. The main role of the army and police is to serve the citizens of the country as the priority. A military officer who expands his interests into non-military areas necessarily weakens his corporate identity and dilutes his responsibility by dividing it into both military and non-military spheres (through conIn modern society, politics has found a way of mixing with the state apparatus for their inter- ests. In the case of Zimbabwe, the state appara- tus has been used countless times for self-inter- est. Just in 2017, the former president of Zimba- bwe, Robert Mugabe was deposed through the assistance of organised strategies by the state apparatus. In as much as people were happy about the actions in this regard, the fact remains that the army failed to be apolitical in this A public service is a service intended to serve all members of a community. Public services include services provided by a government to people living within its jurisdiction, either directly through public sector agencies or by financing the provision of services by private businesses or voluntary organizations. Certain services should be available to all, regardless of income, physical ability or mental acuity. Exam- ples of such services include the fire brigade, police, air force, and paramedics (see also Looking at the Zimbabwean case, however, all these services are available but the question that arises is the accessibility of such services. Public service delivery in Zimbabwe is amongst the worst in Africa. Every decade Zimbabwe undergoes a cholera outbreak for example and this can be blamed on poor service delivery and poor sanitation provision in the country.2008 and benefiting a few(owners of the busses) at the S )UDJLOH6WDWHV Index in 2023 tates of Fragility 2023 will arrive during an ‘age of crises’, where multiple, concur- ring crises are disproportionately affecting the countries involved. Chief among these crises are COVID-19, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and climate change, with the root causes of multidimensional fragility playing a central role in shaping their scale and severity. Adding to that list is the fear of an upcoming recession. The upcoming 2023 report should outline the state of fragility in 2023, review cur- rent responses to it, and present options to guide better policies for better lives in fragile contexts. As we approach the 2030 Agenda for Sustain- able Development, it is more critical than ever for development partners to focus on the furthest behind: the 1.9 billion people in fragile contexts that account for 24% of the world’s population but 73% of the world’s extremely poor. From 2006 to date, Zimbabwe has always been included in the top 20 list of countries that were once deemed as ‘failed states’.The term ‘failed states’ however has now been replaced by the term ‘fragile states’.Yearly in May, the Fragile States Index is released and it will be interesting to see where Zimbabwe stands amid all the indicators that have been used. This article will look at some of the indicators that are used at determining the rank of Zimbabwe on the list as well as the FSI score and try to ascertain if Zimbabwe will be in a better position or not this year. What is fragility? Fragility is the combination of exposure to risk and insufficient coping capacities of the state, system and/or communities to manage, absorb or mitigate those risks. Fragile contexts account for a quarter (24%) of the world’s population but three-quarters (73%) of people living in extreme poverty worldwide. Fragility is compromising people, the planet, and prosperity. In an interconnected world, addressing the root causes of multidimensional fragility is essential for sustainable development and peace. Refugees and Internally displaced persons The graph shows that only Zimbabwe only has 3% refugees and 3% asylum seekers. According to the latest report by Internal Displace- ment(GRID), the number of internally displaced people in the world has reached a record 50 million and this figure was before the Rus- sian/Ukraine war which means the number is more. Of those displaced people around the =LPEDEZHȇVSRVLWLRQWRZRUVHQ With Zimbabwe in recession in 2019 and a global recession in 2020, Delta Corporation remained productive and profitable though profits declined in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Delta responded to the COVID-19 pandemic through hybrid opera- tions and increased automation of processes. In this way, a few workforce with the help of artificial intelligence ensured productivity. Delta further employed cost-cutting strategies to deal with production costs and expenditure, diversification and acquisitions as well as increasing US dollar borrowings to sustain productivity. Between 2018 and 2019, Delta’s finance charges plummeted by 258%, from ZWL5 million in 2018 to ZWL21 million in 2019, a year of recession. This means Delta bor- rowed more to sustain operations as its inven- tory increased from ZWL66 million to ZWL128 million in 2019. In 2020, finance charges further soared by 100%, from ZWL110 million to ZWL160 million in 2020 meaning the company did not cease extending its credit lines to sustain operations in a cash-stripped environment coupled with forex shortages and exchange rate disparities. To cement that, the results further show that Delta incurred less monetary loss during the recession than in other periods meaning it capitalised more on US dollar sales and US Dollar credit lines. Through the accumulation of loans and prof- its, Delta finalised the 100% acquisition of United National Breweries in April 2020 and increased its shareholding stake in Afdis to 50.1% in 2019, thus, increasing competitive advantage and economies of scale. UNB is the leading brewer of traditional beer and owns the Chibuku brand in South Africa. As a result, the company shelved a 19% increase in operating income and a 10% increase in revenue despite a 9% decrease in profit after tax. However, the liquidity ratio remained firm at 1.2 meaning the company was able to finance its obligations in a recession and move forward. In 2019, the liquidity ratio was firmer at 1.2 as well. With the acquisi- tion of Schweppes Zimbabwe, Delta has killed the competition in the drinks and alco- hol market by 86%. With increased automation, a monopoly in the beverages sector in Zimbabwe and diversified footprints beyond, Delta corporation survived headwinds propped by the 2018 elections and a global recession in 2020. The same strate- gic management tactics can be employed by various companies to survive the triple threat. *From Page 18

20 dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ $WDOHRI(FRQRPLF6HQVH96&RUUXSWLRQ Belarus was once Russia's industrial hub until The Soviet Union disintegrated. Today, Belarus is recognized for producing heavy-duty machinery for roads, agriculture, and mining. Zim- Zimbabwe currently depends primarily on agriculture and mining, thus aligning with a nation like Belarus would make economic sense. Many people are wary of the Belarusian president's visit since we are allying with yet another dictatorial country that has recently been subject to Western sanctions. This is in addition to Zimbabwe's existing strong connections with China and Russia. These autocratic governments have always supplied assistance without any conditions attached that the West often demands. Human rights, for instance, are a metric the West uses to assist, but in a nation like Zimbabwe, where culture holds sway, homosexuality will not be widely accepted. Since Zimbabwe is currently under Western sanctions, the West is unable to provide any assistance. Countries that have wel- comed Western ideologies, like South Africa, benefit economically from these relationships and have good relations with the West. The nation of Zimbabwe has always rejected assistance that compromises a sense of independence, and this has set it apart from its neighbour South Africa. In an attempt to reclaim what they believed to be their cultural inheritance, Zimbabwe drove out the white people, leaving the mining and agricultural sectors in the hands of the country's black citizens. The deci- sion has not yet benefited Zimbabwe's economy since the country's citizens lack the tools, expertise, and under- standing necessary to fully utilize the resources at their disposal and achieve economic stability. In this aspect, the decision to strengthen diplomatic ties with Belarus makes economic sense because Belarus is willing to teach Zim- babweans how to use the tech- nology it plans to import to fully exploit the country's resources, in addition to provid- ing the latter with equipment. Belarus is a country with very advanced scientific and techno- logical capabilities. The country is not just renowned for produc- ing top-of-the-line machinery for export; agriculture also plays a significant role in the GDP of the country. Despite having a popula- tion of just over 9 million, Belarus exports its products to over 100 nations. A few years ago, Zimbabwe sought to modernize its agriculture sector, and Belar- us' expertise was helpful. The MTZ tractor manufacturer in Belarus sent more than 1,800 vehicles to Zimbabwe between 2018 and 2022. Zimbabwe received more from Belarus than just trac- tors and tractor parts. Additionally, Belarusians taught local farmers how to operate and maintain these vehicles. The Belarusian tractor producer MTZ agreed to ship more than 3,500 trac- tors to Zimbabwe in 2023–2024 at the business roundtable held in Harare prior to Aleksandr Lukashenko's visit to Zimbabwe. Belarus is currently in talks with Zimbabwe about creating a sort of hub in Africa for the sale of Belarusian goods since local producers cannot meet the demand of the populace. Food, machinery, vehicles, equipment, clothing, and fertilizers are a few examples of the commodi- ties that Belarus can provide that are in short supply. Since Belarus gained independence, it has been steadily expanding its footprint on the African continent, and its efforts to break into the market there have been successful. Belarus traded $500 million worth of goods with Africa in 2021. Belarus exported goods worth around $480 million. There is another reason for Belarus to cooperate with Africa as well as with other traditional partners in current conditions. Belarus’ lost exports to Western countries and Ukraine have to be compensated for by stepping up their presence on the markets of Russia, China, coun- tries of the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa. Belarusian authori- ties intend to increase shipments to African countries by 10% in 2023. The important African partners that buy Belarusian goods include South Africa, Zimbabwe, Angola, Algeria, Egypt, and Kenya. Why Belarus is interested in Zimbabwe However, it must be acknowledged that the lithium (white gold) rush served as a magnet for a leader who has been termed "Europe's last dictator" and who, up until this point, had no close relations with sub-Saharan African nations. Belarus' sphere of influence before opening the new Zimbabwean frontier was in the Nubian region, which included Egypt and Sudan. Lukashenko was visiting Zimbabwe for the first time, and it was also his first trip to sub-Saharan Africa for geopolitical and bilateral rela- tions. There are now 20 agreements between the two nations, but lith- ium remains the most significant. Mnangagwa and Lukashenko agreed in private discussions. Lukashenko promised to build lithium processing plants if granted lithium concessions. Zimbabwe banned the export of raw lithium last year to curb foreign companies and smugglers from looting. The ban was later combined with a blanket prohibition of exports of base metals under Statutory Instrument 213 of 2022 (Ref- erend to as Base Minerals Export Control for unbene- ficiated Lithium Bearing Ores). The energy transition is centered on lithium, a soft, silvery mineral. Rechargeable batter- ies are required by nations as they work to transition to greener economies. Both of these are employed to fuel electric vehicles and to store power generated by renewable resources like the wind and sun. These batteries and the batteries in portable electronic gad- gets both include lithium, which serves as a medium for energy storage. The lack of transparency in nations like Belarus after joint activities is another element that gives many shivers. The finest example is China, which estab- lished solid foundations for a follow-up as evidenced by its paper trail, which leaves a trace of what to expect from the part- nership between Zimbabwe and Belarus. In 2016, Robert Mugabe, who was the president of Zimbabwe at the time, declared that a mining business had stolen $15 billion worth of diamonds from the nation. The busi- ness was called Anjin, a partnership between a Chinese firm and the Zimba- bwean military forces. Additionally, Anjin was charged with illegally exporting a total of US$344 million along with Jinan, a Chi- nese diamond company, according to President Mnangagwa's 2018 list of companies and people who had externalized foreign currency. Mnangagwa and Lukashenko not only share being hit by sanctions by the West but Zimbabwe, a close ally of Moscow’s for decades, refused to condemn Russian President Vladmir Putin for the Ukraine invasion, instead pledging neutrality and calling for dialogue in line with the position taken by many African countries. Whereas Belarus’ support for the Russian invasion is vivid since Belarus allowed Russia to stage part of its invasion from its territory last February and has also been a launching pad for Russian missiles into Ukraine. Mnangagwa and Lukashenko have repeatedly been accused by internal rivals and the West of using arrests and other forms of harassment to stifle dissent and remain in power in their countries allegations they deny. Lukashenko has been in power since 1994. His term was renewed in 2020, in elections widely denounced as a sham. The vote triggered mass opposition protests, and Lukashenko’s government responded with a violent crackdown on demonstrations with authorities arresting more than 35,000 and brutally beating thousands. It remains to be seen how the tale of economic sense against corrup- tion plays out but the result is obscure. What is certain is that Belarus has joined the new scramble of Africa, alongside big global powers, with its forum for engagement. Zimbabwe has now become its land- ing pad in southern Africa, especially after the two countries signed a joint permanent commission this week. %HODUXV9LVLW

Hwange Thermal Power Station, the biggest power plant in Zimbabwe with an installed capacity of 920 MW, once again leaves the to the plant damages and has been operating below average despite its mandate to fully deliver, as it provides an essential service. Rehabilitation of existing facility In May 2017, Standard Bank Group reported that it had agreed to a US$120 million debt package with ZPC in order to repair the power generator infrastructure at Hwange and Kariba South Hydro-Thermal Power Station. The deal was aimed at easing Zimbabwe's long-standing power genera- tion deficiency, which provides around 1,000 MW against average demand of 1,400 MW or more. The finance, however, did not curtail the situation. In fact, the deficit curve positively sharpened.In September 2018, it was reported that the Govern- ment of India was set to provide a line of credit of US$310 million to Zimbabwe to enhance the lifecycle of the Hwange thermal plant. This was later attended to in 2021 after the Febru- ary 10 fire incident which caused extensive damage to Units 1 and 2. At the time, the power station operated an average of two units against a target of five units. Unit 3 was on an extended major overhaul. The reliability of Units 1, 4, and 5 was also affected due to overdue planned outag- es. This reaction strategy to problems had cost the nation in multiple aspects including social damages which saw community members become victims of the fire explosion. In November 2022, the Zimbabwe Power Compa- ny stated that they expected to begin the refurbish- ment project, funded by the Export-Import Bank of India, in the third quarter of 2023. The rehabilita- tion would be conducted in three phases and would give the power station an updated capacity of 880 MW across the six existing units. Econet Wireless Group founder and chairman, Strive Masiyiwa also shared how he once tried to solve Zimbabwe’s power problem with a US $250 million project that would add 500MW of power to Zimbabwe’s national grid. In his statement, he approached the officials in 2007 with the intent to narrow the deficit. By the time the nation was heading into unprece- dented hyperinflation, the response according to his government, they will not listen to you. Let’s form /HIWRXWLQWKHFROGZLWKVXEVWDQWLDOGHȴFLW +ZDQJH7KHUPDO 3RZHU6WDWLRQ nation in serious debt due to its many inefficien- cies. The company was supposed to configure unit 7 before Jan 2023 end according to their Dec 2022 festive message. The company was initially com- missioned in 1983 with 4 x 120MW units between 1983 and 1986 and 2 x 220MW units were com- missioned in 1986 and 1987, with an installed capacity of 920MW. However, the power station has operated below 500MW for ages, with officials pointing fingers at incessant plant challenges. The proclaimed 14th largest power station in the region has over the past two decades almost always produced electricity in a deficit and plans to revive the ageing machin- ery have been all to no avail. Q4’2022 was a circus of numerous forced outages, with the nation plunged into darkness for at least 19 hours a day. Kariba South Power Station was allocated 22.5Bm3 of water by the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) for power generation in 2022. This is equivalent to an average generation capacity of 606MW. However, due to the incessant breakdown of the ancient units at the Hwange Power Station and the lack of foreign currency to import electricity, Kariba South Power Station used up more water in order to augment low generation at the coal-fired stations. This situation led to a reduction of water levels in Lake Kariba which is available for power genera- tion, and necessitated the reduction of the station’s generation by the ZRA to an average of 250MW, hence bringing about an increase in load shedding over the period under review. According to ZPC’s Q4 2022 report, Hwange Power Station generated an average of three units during the quarter compared to a target of five units as per the 2022 production plan, missing the quarterly energy sent-out target by 34.02%. Unit 5 at Hwange is currently awaiting a life extension which is expected to begin in the second quarter of 2023 This article traces how the company has responded statement was “since you are not popular with the a private company with some of our own executives, and you can lend money to that company secretly!” The system has always adopted the reaction strategy to problems proven by its latest overexcitement of the US$ 35 million smart metering deal aimed at reducing debt risks to payments defaulted by major electricity consumers. This could have been tailored for and addressed before putting the nation through the trauma. Phase III expansion project A project aimed at adding two generation units to Hwange Power Station, known as Phase III, was to be launched in 2000 but stalled due to a lack of funds. Fast forward to 2015, this was later reviewed and the contract was finalised with Chinese contractor Sino Hydro Corporation for the expansion of Hwange Power StationIn December 2016, the Zimbabwean government approved a US$1 billion loan facility from China Exim Bank. ++The loan would be paid back over 20 years with a grace period of seven years and an interest rate of 2% per annum. The contract for the expansion was awarded to Sino-Hydro Corporation Ltd. The special purpose vehicle created for overseeing proj- ect development was named the Hwange Electricity Supply Company (Hesco), owned by ZPC and Sino-Hy- dro. In January 2017, ZPC managing director Noah Gwariro said that the company "expects financial closure for the Hwange expansion project by the end of March 2017." The commissioning was supposed to be done in 2022 and later announced to be in Jan 2023, which of course was missed! Transmission line In December 2021, the government commenced con- struction of a 360 km electricity transmission project linking the power station to Bulawayo. In April 2022, it was reported that 810 of the 875 transmission towers had been placed. It had also been recently reported that cables were being stolen and it disrupted the smooth provision of energy. The Hwange station remains in dire need of organisa- tional restructuring and only then can we expect a posi- tive change in the energy distribution. 21 dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ

)URPWR ΖVWKHRYHUQLJKWOHQGLQJUDWHFXWWRR OLWWOHWRRODWH" tion rate that stood at 243.80% in December, the swift action taken by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) to restrain inflationary pres- sures has been supported by the data available. Although inflation has moderated, the RBZ stated that It will continue, through the Mone- tary Policy Committee (MPC), to monitor it closely and respond accordingly to the data as it comes. The outlook guiding the interest rate decisions of the RBZ forecasts a monthly blended inflation rate averaging below 1.5% and an annual blended rate of between 10%-30% by the end of the year. In the Bank’s 2023 Monetary Policy Statement, it was reported that the inflation data was satisfactory to the monetary authority to warrant an adjust- ment in the policy rate. The RBZ has cut the bank policy rate by 50 basis points, from 200% to 150% per annum. Furthermore, policy rates are expected to continuously be aligned to this forecasted inflation path with rate adjustments expected to end the year between 30% - 60%. Although the monetary policy stance remains tight, the marginal ease in rates is expected to encourage the capacity of the productive sector by allowing lines of affordable credit to busi- nesses that had foregone projects and expansion plans due to their financial feasibility. As the cost of borrowing reduces, projects that were out of budget may now be affordable. Result- ing in the seizing of opportunities and the increase of company spending in the economy. For instance, consider ART Corp’s deferment of its project to broaden its product range within the batteries business unit. Due to inade- quate financing, the company had to forgo the opportunity to increase its share of the growing batteries market, impacting both the company and government receipts. With the marginal easing of the bank’s monetary policy, ART Corp is better positioned to take advantage of the growing demand in Zambia and Malawi. Going forward, we expect the data to show an increase in the loan-to-deposit ratio from its low base of 55.67% in 2022. The high-interest rates had disincentivised the provision of loans. Although the current rate is still high in com- parison to other countries in the region, the projected trajectory of inflation is expected to increase loan activity and will thereby increase banks' interest income. The challenge may be the timing of the RBZ’s lenience. Given that the mitigation strategy to curb inflation can only be achieved at the expense of growth, the high cost of borrowing has put a strain on industries and ultimately on jobs. A decline in demand will eventually be reflected in unemployment data. The global economy is expected to slow down from a GDP growth rate of 3.4% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023. Domestically, the slowdown is projected to go from a GDP growth rate of 4.0% in 2022 to 3.8% in 2023. The easing of the central bank’s monetary stance will support businesses’ ability to weather this decrease in demand, but it may be too little too late to save the many jobs that industries will not be able to afford. As demand declines, so does consumer expenditure, and businesses will therefore need to find alternative source of fin22 dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ From the year-on-year inflation rate peak of 285% recorded in August 2022 through the 4th quarter which ended with an inflaance to cover their cost of doing business. A mone- tary policy that is too tight may risk the exacerbation of a serve recession, which may go beyond the econ- omy and spill into the social dynamics of an already vulnerable environment. Moreover, with the expected decline in commodity prices, the balance sheets of exporting businesses will be further strained. This will increase the stress on jobs. The decline in commodity prices will follow the decline in overall demand. Some com- modities such as gold may perform well through a recession, as evidenced in the past by their reputation as a store of value. But the overall trajectory of commodity prices will see a decline. With the heavy reliance and exposure, the Zimbabwe- an economy has on the mining sector, a decline in commodity prices will result not only in job losses but also in direct poverty and hunger given the number of small-scale informal miners without the capacity to hedge themselves from losses. The policy trajectory of the RBZ suggests this recognition of the importance of stabiliz- ing demand. In addi- tion to the Banks cut on its policy rate, it has increased export reten- tions to 75% across all sectors, including firms listed on the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange (VFEX). Moreover, Foreign currency retention on domestic sales in foreign currency has increased to 85%. The lend- ing rate on the Medium-term Bank Accommodation (MBA) Facility for the productive sectors, including individuals and MSMEs, has been reduced from 100% to 75% per annum. The aggregated message from the RBZs Mone- tary Statement is that although the bank intends to hold a firm grip on inflation, they are concerned about the looming recession and are willing to support businesses to weather it. Although this timely change of position may be seen to reflect the election period, in that government policies may be made to save face within the industry. Such a conclusion is unlikely given the lag between the time it takes for policies to be implemented and the time it takes for the intended benefits to occur. If the policy position were politically influenced for election purposes, they would have been implemented earlier and in a more drastic way. However, the policies have been consis- tent in their effort to stabilise a historically turbulent economic environment. From the introduction of the local currency, the auction market, and the gold coins among other mea- sures. The RBZ has since shown vigour in realising its mandate. Although the environment remains relav e l y volatile, an inspec- tion of the annual reports of companies across different industries shows an increase in confidence in the stern measures taken. This confidence is crucial to managing expectations. As was stated by the governor of the RBZ in an annual economic report, the management of public expectations is an important driver of inflation. When the public, specifically the business participants have confidence in the strategy of the monetary authority, they will behave in manners that support the strategy and thus support economic stability. As the global slowdown intensifies, it will be the RBZs strategy and the response of companies that will determine the depth of the impact on the Zimbabwean economy.

dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ Last week, this column commended authorities on the perpetual deceleration of the inflation rate experienced since July 2022. Recently, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) released its 2023 Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) with various policy proposals it is expecting to clamp ZWL depreciation and bring durable price stability. However, the last column indicated that the monetary authority is likely to face a monetary policymaking dilemma as the need for a contractionary stance may be overshadowed by a dovish fiscal policy stance in an election year. This piece, therefore, seeks to analyze selected policy mea- sures proposed by the Bank in its latest 2023 MPS. 1. Inflation Projections The Bank projects a downward trend of inflation rate in 2023 and expects it to average 1.5% per month. A continued tight monetary policy stance, strong fiscal stance, strong coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities on liquidity management, continued use of a dual currency system, and normal-to-above-normal rain- fall patterns to dampen food prices are the underpin- ning assumptions. A granular analysis, however, shows that in making its inflation projections the Bank through 2023 MPS has failed to price the impacts of the upcoming general elections and its associated risks. These risks, for instance, include the pending Private Voluntary Organization (PVO) Bill which is awaiting presidential assent after sailing through both chambers of the National Assembly. The Bill has a high potential to constrain the civic space which could affect NGO remittances to Zimbabwe. In 2022 alone, forex inflows from NGOs were up 16.6% to constitute about 10% of US$11.6 billion received abroad for the entire year. The foreign exchange markets risk losing a significant amount of these remittances if the Bill gets signed into law and this could exert severe ZWL exchange rate, social, and humanitarian impacts. Also, the Bank is projecting inflation to keep plunging through 2023. But a glance at statistics shows that gov- ernment borrowing is mounting unsustainably. The latest RBZ report shows that in 2022, Treasury Bills issuance expanded by 394% from ZWL40.24 billion in Jan 2022 to ZWL198.81 billion in Nov 2022. This is clear evidence of mounting spending pressures which could get worse in an election year (2023). As such, it is difficult to expect a decline in ZWL inflation when the ZWL had already lost about 20% of its value year-to-date in the parallel markets. 2. Exchange Rate Management The Bank promised to continue supporting the auction and the WBWS by availing forex from the surrender portion of forex receipts. While this foreign exchange market support is commendable, it is my view that the piecemeal approach to ZWL exchange rate liberaliza- tion being taken by authorities is hurting the price discovery process. The auction market should be disbanded as it is facilitating the creation of multiple exchange rates in the economy thus promoting round-tripping and rent-seeking behaviors. As such, to get a single unified official rate the Bank should only maintain the WBWS interbank market purely based on market forces of demand and supply. A market-driven exchange rate is essential in stabilizing ZWL andelimi- nating distortions caused by rent-seeking. 3. Statutory Reserves Requirements (SRRs) The statutory reserve requirements are meant to build up adequate liquidity in the banking sector. Generally, a lack of SRRs may create a financial imbalance in case of an untoward incident like fraud or scam which can lead to a risk of financial instability. These SRRs are key in building trust and confidence in the banking sector as investors and the public get assurances that- their money is secured through reserves. More impor- tantly, SRRs are used for liquidity management by thecentral bank. A high SRR ratio means a large portion of deposits is locked in RBZ’s vaults and there fore are not available for on-lending by banks thus constraining credit creation and expansion by banks. However, since SRRs are mostly non-interest bearing, a high SRR poses a high opportunity cost to banks, prevents full utilization of savings, and increases the cost of financial intermediation. Also, RBZ’s SRR ratio of 10% on ZWL call and demand deposits in a highly inflationary environment may be inadequate in reducing money supply. 4. Benchmark Policy Rate The Bank has proposed to reduce its benchmark policy rate by 50 percentage points to 150% in line with moderating inflation pressures experienced since Q4:22. From their perspective, this stance will bring positive real interest rates in the economy which are good as they encourage borrowing for productive purposes. Also, the exorbitant 200% interest rate had fuelled dollarization as shown by the increase in foreign currency loans and the relegation of ZWL to only a transactional currency. However, I question the wisdom behind RBZ’s deci- sion of decreasing the benchmark policy rate at a time the exchange rate is plummeting particularly in the parallel market. To me, this is counterproductive as it will encourage speculative borrowing which fuels inflation. With the ZWL already down by 18.2% on average in the parallel market since the start of 2023, ZWL prices will likely escalate months ahead. As alluded to earlier, the decline of the local unit will probably accelerate in response to excessive fiscal spending ahead of the upcoming harmonized elections. Last week I indicated that election seasons are highly distortionary as political pressures may increase the possibility of fiscal policy slippages and reversals. Many studies have shown that incumbent governments facing re-election tend to display dovish spending tendencies as political goals are prioritized at the expense of the long-term health of the general economy and the welfare of citizens. Cognizant of this, RBZ should have maintained a tight monetary stance to manage expectations and keep exchange rate depreciation pressures suppressed. 5. Deposit Interest Rates By adjusting the minimum deposit interest rates on both ZWL and US$ savings and time deposit accounts upwards, the Bank seeks to lure depositors to keep money aside for long-term goals while earn- ing interest. This ensures that excess moneywith the public does not end up being used for speculative purposes as it is kept in the bank account for a long time. In other words, the higher the deposit interest rate the greater the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing cash. However, for Zimbabwe’s scenario, ZWL deposit interest rates of between 30-50% are insignificant as they lag behind the inflation level. The value that will be lost due to price growth (measured at 229.8% as of end-January 2023) is higher than the value that will be gained on interest-earning deposit accounts. As such, there is no incentive for the public and investors to maintain such accounts in a hyperinfla- tionary environment. They would rather chase value by investing their free funds, for instance, in stocks or buying hard currency in the parallel market to keep under the pillow. 6. Export Retention The Bank has increased export retention on both export proceeds and domestic foreign currency sales. This will bring great relief to exporters and domestic firms as it reduces exchange rate losses from high- forex proceeds liquidation rates. So, by increasing forex retention thresholds the Bank will help reduce US$ demand in the formal market. With more free funds companies will be able to increase the importa 'HP\VWLI\LQJWKH0RQHWDU\3ROLF\6WDWHPHQW tion of industrial raw materials which are key in sustaining high domestic production, employment, and output. Generally, organic growth is preferred by business leaders as it is less risky. Also, allowing tobacco farmers to be paid 85% of their deliveries in forex is a step in the right direction that would positively affect future production and improve supply in the official markets by discouraging side marketing. If high forex retention is extended to other crops like maize and traditional grains, the rural economy that largely depends on farming will be uplifted from the grips of poverty. 7. Export of Forex Cash and Gold Coins The Bank has reviewed the export of forex cash and gold coins upwards from US$5 000 to US$10 000. Since the economy has now largely dollarized as confirmed by statistics from RBZ forex accounts balances, increasing forex export limit was inevita- ble to bring travel convenience. In my opinion, the Bank’s major aim in maintaining exchange controls is to manage or prevent an adverse balance of pay- ments (BoP) position. As such, these controls will help reduce capital flight that may emanate from speculative pressures on ZWL, protect local indus- try, restrict non-essential imports, build forex reserves, encourage the importation of priority goods, and manages the exchange rate. However, exchange controls may strengthen already flourish- ing currency black markets as foreign currency demand may end up exceeding supply in the official market. 8. Gold coins The gold coins were introduced by the Bank in July 2022. As of 13 January 2023, about 25 188 gold coins were purchased thus enabling RBZ to mop excess ZWL20 billion in the market. Of the total coins, 84% were acquired by corporates while the balance of 16% was bought by individuals. The gold coins are serving two primary functions -liquidity management (Open Market Operation) and alternative investment vehicle. Concerning the former, the fact that the gold coins are being largely sold in ZWLs at an overvalued WBWS interbank rate the Bank is selling at a loss. For instance, on 31 January 2023 an ounce of gold coin sold for US$1 923.05 which was equivalent to ZWL1.53 million at the prevailing official rate of ZWL/USD 796.52 (versus parallel market value of ZWL1.92 million at ZWL/USD 1000). All else constant, this variance gives an indicative loss of about ZWL0.39 million per 1-ounce gold coin sold that day. Since the turn of 2023, the ZWL is on a massive deterioration path against the US$ in both markets. It has already erased nearly 20% of its value in alternative markets pushing parallel market exchange premia above 35%. As such, the selling of precious gold in fragile ZWL is tantamount to a waste of gold reserves at a time the nation has become too susceptible to unforeseen contingencies like disease outbreaks, droughts, and cyclones. Despite the presence of these coins, RBZ statistics also show broad money supply mounting by 99.12% from ZWL1.12 trillion in June 2022 to about ZWL2.34 trillion in December 2022. This shows that the ZWL20 billion mopped by gold coins in more than 6 months is too little to influ- ence the exchange rate and inflation dynamics. It is therefore my view that gold coins are inefficient in managing liquidity hence the program of selling the coins in ZWL should be discontinued unless the Bank allows for full liberalization of the WBWS system. Zvikomborero Sibanda is an Economic Analyst for Zimbabwe Coalition on Debt and Development (ZIMCODD). He writes in his own capacity; his views do not represent those of the organization he works for. Email: [email protected]. Twitter: @bravon9 By Zvikomborero Sibanda 23

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Her message was delivered to the EU Council President’s last visit to Rome. “Italy,” she said “cannot cope with the matter alone”. The 27 EU-member summit will discuss the issue and Meloni has already highlighted that the EU “must intervene on the defence of the external borders”. During a first round of bilateral international meetings, Meloni’s approach was welcomed by both the German chancellor and Swedish prime minister. “When it comes to migration, Europe is eventual- ly moving in the same direction as Brothers of Italy and Meloni’s government," Sara Kelany, a Brothers of Italy MP said. -EuroNews Ukraine’s Zelenskyy makes emotional appeal for EU membership President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked his West- ern allies Thursday for more weapons and said “a Ukraine that is winning” its war with Russia should become a member of the European Union, arguing the bloc won’t be complete without it. Zelenskyy made his appeal during an emotional day at EU headquarters in Brussels as he wrapped up a rare, two-day trip outside Ukraine to seek new weaponry from the West to repel the inva- sion that Moscow has been waging for nearly a year. As he spoke, a new offensive by Russia in eastern Ukraine was under way. Zelenskyy, who also visited the U.K. and France, received rapturous applause and cheers from the European Parliament and a summit of the 27 EU leaders, insisting in his speech that the fight with Russia was one for the freedom of all of Europe. “A Ukraine that is winning is going to be member of the European Union,” Zelenskyy said, building his appeal around the common destiny that Ukraine and the bloc face in confronting Russia. “Europe will always be, and remain Europe as long as we ... take care of the European way of life,” he said. EU membership talks should start later this year, Zelenskyy said, an ambitious request given the huge task ahead. Such a move would help moti- vate Ukrainian soldiers in their defense of the country, he said. -AP Lula goes to Washington eyeing a ‘new era’ in US-Brazil relations Newly elected Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will seek to “kickstart a new era of relations” with the United States during talks with his US counterpart Joe Biden at the White House, analysts and Brazilian officials say, but ideological differences are likely to persist. Da Silva, commonly known as Lula, will meet with Biden on Friday in the left-wing leader’s first official visit to the US after he narrowly defeated Brazil’s former far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, in an October run-off election. The visit, which will come just weeks after Lula was sworn in at the beginning of January, under- scores “how much importance” the Brazilian pres- ident places on his country’s relationship with the US, said Filipe Nasser, a senior adviser to Brazil’s foreign minister. Speaking during a panel discussion on Tuesday organised by the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a US-based think tank, Nasser said the timing of Lula’s trip “reflects how big a moment this is for Brazil-US relations”. “I think this is an opportunity for the leaders to establish or re-establish a personal rapport between them,” he said. -Aljazeera UN chief fears world is heading toward a wider war The United Nations chief warned Monday that the world is facing a convergence of challenges “unlike any in our lifetimes” and expressed fear of a wider war as the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said experts who surveyed the state of the world in 2023 set the Doomsday Clock at 90 seconds to midnight — the closest ever to “total global catastrophe,” He pointed to the war in Ukraine, “runaway climate catastrophe, rising nuclear threats,” the widening gulf between the world’s haves and have-nots, and the “epic geopolitical divisions” undermining “global solidarity and trust.” Russia's Lavrov backs Sudan bid to lift UN sanctions Russia's top diplomat Sergei Lavrov held talks in Khartoum Thursday with Sudanese officials, pledging support for their call to lift long-standing UN sanctions on the African nation. Lavrov's two-day visit is part of Russian efforts to shore up influence on the African continent amid broad international attempts to isolate Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine last year. "We stand with the Sudanese side in its endeavour to lift the sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council," Lavrov told a press conference alongside Khartoum's acting foreign minister Ali al-Sadiq. Sadiq emphasised the need for the two countries to cooperate at the United Nations and to push "for reform... in the Security Council". Sudan has recently repeated calls for the body to lift sanctions and an arms embargo imposed during conflict in the country's Darfur region in 2005. Lavrov held talks Thursday with army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who in October 2021 led a mili- tary coup that derailed Sudan's transition to civil- ian rule and triggered cuts to crucial Western aid.-France24 Eritrea leader dismisses army rights abuse allegations Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has dismissed reports of alleged war crimes committed by his troops during the conflict in northern Ethiopia. In rare comments about the war, which begun in November 2020, President Isaias said the claims were part of a disinformation campaign by detrac- tors of the peace deal reached between the gov- ernment in Ethiopia and Tigrayan forces for a per- manent ceasefire in the country's civil war. He also declined to answer questions regarding when Eritrean troops will fully leave the Tigray region or on a succession plan in his country. Rights groups allege Eritrean soldiers have com- mitted atrocities in northern Ethiopia which include killing unarmed civilians, raping women and the widespread looting of public and private property. President Isaias was speaking in Kenya following a bilateral meeting with his counterpart, William Ruto. Mr Isaias took power after independence in 1993, but the country has never held a national election with critics accusing him of jailing people opposed to his rule.-BBC UN troops kill eight civilians in DRC convoy attack, says governor United Nations peacekeepers have killed eight civilians during an attack on their supply convoy in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), a military governor said. The troops were firing "warning shots", which also wounded 28 people in the violence on Tues- day, the governor of North Kivu province said. The UN convoy was returning from a resupply mission north of Goma, the provincial capital, when assailants set four trucks on fire, the UN mission in the country, Monusco, said on Wednes- day. The attack took place at Kanyaruchinya, where thousands of displaced people live. Monusco had said three people died when the peacekeepers, accompanied by Congolese soldiers, "tried to protect the convoy". Lieutenant-General Constant Ndima, the gover- nor’s spokesperson, said on Wednesday.- News24 EU summit: Italy's Giorgia Meloni pushes for stricter migration laws talian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has what could be called a straightforward communication style, even more so when it comes to addressing one of her political programmes’ key issues - such as migration. In a wide-ranging address Guterres urged the General Assembly’s 193 member nations to change their mindset on decision-making from near-term thinking, which he called “irresponsi- ble” and “immoral,” to looking “at what will happen to all of us tomorrow — and act.” He said this year’s 75th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights should serve as a reminder that the foundation of the inalienable rights of all people is “freedom, justice and peace.” Guterres said the transformation needed today must start with peace, beginning in Ukraine — where unfortunately, he said, peace prospects “keep diminishing” and “the chances of further escalation and bloodshed keep growing.” “I fear the world is not sleepwalking into a wider war. It is doing so with its eyes wide open,” he said. The world must work harder for peace, Guterres said, not only in Ukraine but in the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict “where the two-state solution is growing more distant by the day,” in Afghanistan where the rights of women and girls “are being trampled and deadly terrorist attacks continue” and in Afri- ca’s Sahel region where security is deteriorating “at an alarming rate.”-AP Pentagon '100 Percent' Certain China Bal- loon Was Surveillance Asset ADefense Department spokesperson said Wednesday that the Chinese high-altitude balloon shot down off the East Coast last weekend was definitely not civilian in nature. Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told a media briefing there was no possibility the dirigible was a weather-monitoring balloon, as has been insisted by Chinese officials. "I can assure you this was not for civilian pur- poses. We are 100 percent clear about that," said Ryder, who called the balloon "an intelli- gence-collection capability." If it were a weath- er balloon, he said, any "responsible nation" would have notified governments before an errant aircraft crossed into another's sovereign airspace. "The [People's Republic of China] did not do that. They didn't respond until after they were called out," Ryder said. The United States believes the balloon was part of a larger Chinese surveillance balloon pro- gram, whose purpose is to surveil military sites. The program has been operational for several years, with similar craft spotted over at least five continents, he said. According to Ryder, these intelligence-gathering assets vary in size and capability. On Monday, Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander of NORAD and USNORTHCOM, estimated the recently downed balloon was 200 feet tall and carried a payload the size of a regional jet airliner. The Pentagon said China declined a secure call between Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe shortly after the balloon was shot down on February 4. -Newsweek Mali: 6 senior military officials of the junta relieved of their duties The Malian government has announced that it is to release six senior military officials, includ- ing the army chief of staff and the national guard chief of staff, from their duties on Wednesday, according to a cabinet statement. The statement did not give reasons for the dismissal. The director general of the national gendar- merie, the director general of military security, the director of military engineering and the central director of the army's health services were also replaced. Mali has been plagued since 2012 by the spread of jihadism and a serious security, politi- cal and humanitarian crisis. The colonels who took power in Mali by force in 2020 broke off the military alliance with France and its partners in 2022, and turned to Russia. Three armed groups in northern Mali that have fought the central state in the past also merged on Wednesday, at a time of tension with 3ROLWLFV$URXQG7KH:RUOG dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ 25

%XVLQHVV$URXQG7KH:RUOG Some politicians have criticised the deadline being set before February 25 elections for a new presi- dent and lawmakers because campaigns are funded by mostly hard-to-trace cash. Supreme Court Judge John Inyang Okoro said Wednesday’s decision to suspend the deadline was unanimous, pending a legal challenge from three states who had argued that the note swap plan was causing hardship before the elections. The court is due to hear the states’ challenge on February 15.-Aljazeera Shell profits hit record $40bn as Britons endure inflation Energy giant Shell has announced record annual profits nearing $40bn, after oil and gas prices surged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February. The British company’s earnings in 2022 were the highest in its 115-year history, a milestone that has angered many Britons struggling with a cost-of-living crisis largely driven by inflated energy bills. Shell’s annual profits soared to $39.9bn, more than doubling from a year earlier and surpassing a previous record of $31bn in 2008. The earnings mirror those reported by the compa- ny’s US rivals earlier this week and are certain to intensify pressure on governments to further raise taxes on the sector. The results demonstrate Shell’s “capacity to deliver vital energy to our customers in a volatile world”, new CEO Wael Sawan said in a statement. Russia’s war in Ukraine has rocked global energy markets and Shell, like its competitors, has bene- fitted through its large global footprint and leading trading operations. Governments struggling with soaring energy bills have responded by imposing windfall taxes on the energy sector, including in the United Kingdom. Shell said it expects about $2.4bn in costs related to the levies in 2022. At the beginning of January. the company announced it will pay tax in the UK for the first time since 2017.-Aljazeera US-China trade hits record high despite rising tensions Trade between the US and China hit a record high last year even as their diplomatic relations deteriorated. Imports and exports between the two countries totalled $690.6bn (£572.6bn) in 2022, official figures show. Relations between the countries have hit new lows in recent days after a Chinese balloon travelled across the US. Beijing denies US claims it was used for spying. The world's two biggest econo- mies have also been in a trade war since 2018. The new figures show that US imports from China increased to $536.8bn last year as American shoppers spent more on Chinese-made goods, including toys and mobile phones. In the same period, US exports to China increased to $153.8bn. While some of the increase in trade between the two countries is a result of the rising cost of living, the figures also point to how reliant the US and China still are on each other even after years of trade conflict between them. "I think it's an important indication of the diffi- culties of actually decoupling," Deborah Elms, the founder of Asian Trade Centre, told the BBC. "Even if governments, firms and consumers wanted to separate, the economics make it diffi- cult to deliver products in a decoupled world at a price that firms and consumers are willing to pay," she added. -BBC Congo’s president wants new exploration for green energy metals Exploration for the two minerals will begin ‘in the next few days’ in Congo’s southern, diamond-rich Kasai region, Tshisekedi said. Democratic Republic of Congo wants to position itself as a key source of metals in the green energy transition, and that will mean new explora tion for nickel and chrome, according to President Felix Tshisekedi. Exploration for the two minerals will begin “in the next few days” in Congo’s southern, diamond-rich Kasai region, Tshisekedi said Tues- day at the Investing in African Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town, South Africa. The country is also looking for partners to invest in cobalt, tantalum, tin and lithium processing. The transition to clean-energy technologies is a huge driving force for metals used in batteries, solar components, wind turbines and EVs. Mean- while, mine output has been limited, helping to send prices for the commodities higher. Copper on the London Metal Exchange is up more than 40% since the end of 2019, while nickel surged more than 90%. Congo provides more than two-thirds of the key battery mineral cobalt and is tied with Peru as the world’s second-biggest copper producer, according to the US Geological Survey. It also has signifi- cant deposits of other minerals including lithium, graphite and manganese. But only 19% of the country — Africa’s second-biggest by landmass — has been properly explored, Tshisekedi said. -Moneyweb Lithium reserves found in Jammu and Kash- mir for first time, says India govt The Geological Survey of India (GSI) on Thurs- day said that it has found lithium reserves for the first time in Jammu and Kashmir in Reasi district where 5.9 million tonnes of lithium reserves have been found. "Geological Survey of India has for the first time established Lithium inferred resources (G3) of 5.9 million tonnes in Salal-Haimana area of Reasi District of Jammu & Kashmir (UT), " the Minis- try of Mines said in a statement. Lithium is a non-ferrous metal and is one of the key components in EV batteries. Currently, India is import-dependent for many minerals like lithi- um, nickel and cobalt and has lately been looking to strengthen its supply of key minerals, including lithium, that will be critical for furthering its elec- tric vehicle plans. Mines Secretary Vivek Bharadwaj said, "For the first time, lithium reserves have been discovered and that too in Jammu and Kashmir." "Whether it is a mobile phone or a solar panel, critical minerals are required everywhere. In order to become self-reliant, it is very important for the country to find out critical minerals and also pro- cess it," he said. He also said that if gold imports are reduced, then "we will become aatmanirbhar (self-reliant)". During the 62nd Central Geological Programming Board (CGPB) meeting, a report on 51 Mineral Blocks including Lithium and Gold were handed over to state governments.-CNBC Pakistan seeks IMF bailout to stave off eco- nomic collapse Pakistan is holding last-ditch talks with the Inter- national Monetary Fund (IMF) to secure help to stem a deepening economic crisis that has all but emptied its foreign exchange reserves. It has enough dollars to cover less than a month of imports at normal levels and is struggling to service sky-high levels of foreign debt. An IMF team is due to leave the country on Thursday after 10 days of talks with the government aimed at unlocking vital international funds. In January annual inflation soared to over 27%, the highest its been in Pakistan since 1975, and there are mounting fears for the economy in a pivotal election year. This week the rupee sank to a historic low of 275 to the dollar, down from 175 a year ago, making it more expensive for Pakistan to buy and pay for things. The lack of foreign currency is one of the most pressing of Pakistan's problems. Factories like Jubilee Textiles in Faisalabad, the industrial heartland of Pakistan, were shut recently - not by the frequent power cuts that have dogged Pakistan for years, but because they couldn't get hold of dollars to pay for the goods they need.-BBC In South Africa, ‘load shedding’ takes a toll on small businesses In the five years since Corner Cafe opened its doors a few metres away from the South African Parliament building in Cape Town’s central busi- ness district, it has become a popular meeting place for politicians, researchers and other locals. But less than two years after the COVID-19 pan- demic flattened business in the area and led to many closing shops, Prisca Horonga, the cafe’s owner, who works up to 12 hours and employs three people, says it is facing another existential crisis. Since 2022, there have been scheduled blackouts, or load shedding, across the country for as long as 10 hours per day at a time.“You have to wait until the power returns … we cannot afford a generator, so we lose clients all the time,” 32-year-old Horonga, originally from Zimbabwe, told Al Jazeera. In the same district, beautician Nadine Iqani, who has been in operation for the past 15 years, has similar worries. In the past decade, she has man- aged to juggle her schedule to accommodate clients despite the blackouts, but she says things have worsened in the last year. “I am making a third of the income pre-the load shedding times, and I have clients shouting at me,” she told Al Jazeera. “It is just a nightmare … working long hours, including weekends, to accommodate clients.”-Aljazeera Zambia launches construction of €9.8m Kazu- ngula Water and Basic Sanitation Project in partnership with SADC Water Fund The Government of the Republic of Zambia, in partnership with the Southern African Develop- ment Community Fund for Water Infrastructure and Basic Sanitation (SADC Water Fund), launched the Kazungula Water and Basic Sanita- tion Project construction on 2nd February 2023. The €9.8 million Euro Project is funded by the SADC Water Fund which is hosted and managed by the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) on behalf of SADC, with the support of the German Government through the Federal Min- istry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) and KfW Development Bank, and aims to improve access to clean water and hygienic condi- tions for residents of Kazungula District. The Organisations will work closely with commu- nity leaders and residents to ensure the Project is implemented in a sustainable manner. The Zambi- an Government is co-financing the Project as part of its commitment to the SADC regional integra- tion agenda in infrastructure development and working towards sustainable development of the water sector for a socially and economically developed SADC Region. Kazungula border town sits at the crossroads of Zambia, Namibia, Botswana, and Zimbabwe, along the banks of the Zambezi River. In his remarks, the Minister of Water Develop- ment and Sanitation, Honourable Mike Mposha, noted that the Zambian Government considers Kazungula as a very strategic district in the pro- motion of regional integration, trade, and econom- ic corporation among the SADC Member States of Zambia, Botswana, Namibia, and Zimbabwe that share a common boundary in the district. -SADC News Nigeria’s Supreme Court suspends Friday dead- line for cash swap Nigeria’s Supreme Court has prevented the gov- ernment from enforcing a Friday deadline for citi- zens to swap old banknotes for new ones as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) flagged disrup- tions to trade and payments. Nigerians were due to turn in old 1,000, 500 and 200 naira banknotes (worth $2.17, $1.09 and $0.43) in exchange for newly designed notes by Friday as part of a central bank initiative to curb cash in circulation and control double-digit infla- tion. The plan has caused controversy with people saying there are not yet enough new notes avail- able, leading to chaotic scenes at banks and acute cash shortages. dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ 26

0DUNHWV ZDWFK T babwe dollar traded at ZWL831.8147 on the latest auction market held on the 7th of February 2023, from ZWL801.6023. Week-to-date deficits have widened by 4% same as month-to-date deficits while since January 2023, the Zimbabwe dollar has succumbed by 15% against the greenback, which is a month-on-month record decline since the Zimbabwe dollar was introduced in 2019. With bank policy rates slashed by 50 percentage points from 200% to 150% by the Central Bank during the latest presentation of the Monetary Policy Statement, borrowing activities from both the private and public sectors are expected to rise compared to the prior quarters, thus, adding more worthless-Zimbabwe dollar liquidity into the market against the few US dollars. In this regard, the Zimbabwe dollar is expected to experience record falls in the outlook due to high consumer activities and more corporate borrowings. As elections are closer, the government soon will be availing funds for its suppliers, increasing salaries for the security personnel which plays a fundamental role in ZANU PF elections through quashing and silencing opposition voices courtesy of the Maintenance of Peace and Order Act. The Zimbabwe dollar is expected to continue falling in the short term as investors will seek to hedge their assets with the United States dollar. Regional Markets Rand dips to 2-weeks low The South African Rand traded at 17.6 against the US dollar, its lowest since mid-December 2022, amid rising concerns over the impact of South Africa's power crisis on the country's outlook. Rolling blackouts enforced by the failing national power utility Eskom to curb a total grid collapse have increased across the country and continue to plague businesses and undermine economic growth, while also fuelling inflation. The South African Reserve Bank slowed the pace of tightening in January and slashed its 2023 growth forecast for South Africa to 0.3% from the previous 1.1% due to extensive and damaging load shedding. The bank also cut growth expectations to 0.7% in 2024 (down from 1.4%) and to 1.0% in 2025 (down from 1.5%) he underfired Zimbabwe dollar has shed by 93% on the Foreign Exchange Auction Market since it commenced in June 2020. The ZimMeanwhile, the mining production in South Africa shrank by 3.5% year-on-year in December 2022, after an upwardly revised 9.2% drop in the previous month and compared with market forecasts of a 6% slump. December marked the 11th consecutive monthly annual output decline in the sector but the smallest in the sequence that began in February 2022, partly due to unreliable power. The largest negative contributors were iron ore (-15.2% vs -19.3% in November), diamonds (-36.9% vs -21.6%) and PGMs (-5.3% vs -22%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, mining production rose by 1.2%, marking the first increase after four consecutive months of drops. Total mining production in South Africa contracted by 7.2% in 2022 over a year ago. It follows an increase of 11.6% in 2021 and a decrease of 10.4% in 2020. Naira trades at 500 ahead of project- ed gloomy outlook Naira traded at 500 on the 9th of February 2022 against a single green back with parallel market rates hovering around 800 per dollar. The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI fell to 53.5 in January of 2023, from an eight-month high of 54.6 in the previous month. Output and new business continued to rise markedly but at softer rates attributed to moderating customer numbers, despite increased demand. Meanwhile, ratings agency S&P on February 3rd 2023 affirmed Nigeria's credit rating at "B-/B" but turned negative on its outlook, citing increasing risks to the country's debt servicing capacity over the next one-to-two years. Nigeria, a major oil exporter, has faced production shortages in recent years due to crude theft, though output has begun to recover. It has also suffered chronic dollar shortages and high debt service which has eaten into government revenues. Moody's credit rating for Nigeria was last set at Caa1 with a stable outlook. Fitch's credit rating for Nigeria was last reported at B- with a stable outlook. In general, a credit rating is used by sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and other investors to gauge the credit worthiness of Nigeria thus having a big impact on the country's borrowing costs. Kenyan Shilling steadies at drops to 125 Shilling dropped by 1 percentage point on the 9th of February 2023 from 124 last week to ZWL125 this week against the United States dollar. Shilling is being stun by drought spells, inflationary pressures due to low USD reserves and high public debt. In December, Kenya’s public debt surpassed KES 9 trillion ($72 billion) for the first time, bringing the country closer to reaching the KES 10 trillion ($80 billion) limit set by Parliament in June 2022. Data from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) shows public debt hit KES 9.145 trillion (US$73 billion) in December, made up of KES 4.472 trillion (US$36 billion) in domestic debt, KES 37.88 billion (US$303 million) publicly-guaranteed debt and KES 4.673 trillion ($37 billion) in external debt. The debt is poised to get past the KES 9.44 trillion (US$75 billion) mark by June, according to earlier estimates by the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO), which will be just KES 560 billion (US$4.5 billion) shy of hitting the ceiling. Kwacha settles at 19 amid private sector rebound Zambian Kwacha traded at 19 against the single greenback on the 9th of February 2023 amid a rebound in private sector. The Stanbic Bank Zambia PMI rose to 50.6 in January of 2023 from 48.3 in the previous month, pointing to the first improvement in the country's private sector in four months and the most pronounced since December 2021. There were renewed upturns in output, new orders, employment and purchasing activity, spurred by strengthening demand, higher customer numbers and competitive pricing. Meanwhile, suppliers' delivery times shortened in January, thereby ending a six-month sequence of deteriorating vendor performance. On the price front, overall input prices increased at a solid pace in January, and one that was the fastest in nine months. Accordingly, companies increased their selling prices in January following no change in December. Finally, business sentiment was the strongest in 13 months, albeit still softer than the series average, on hopes that economic conditions will continue to improve over the course of the year. Pula decelerates to 13 against single greenback Botswana Pula traded at 13 against the single greenback on the 9th of February 2023. The Botswana Pula is expected to trade at 12.84 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts’ expectations. =LPEDEZHGROODUVXFFXPEV RQ$XFWLRQ0DUNHW dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ 28

=6(:((./<&200(17$5< Following the partial loosening of the contractionary monetary policy by the RBZ in the 2023 MPS, confidence in the prospects of value preservation on ZSE significantly improved in the week under review. The mainstream ZSE All Share Index surged by a staggering 25.27% in the week to close at a 9-month high of 29,631.6 points. Gains were spun across all the market's main indices in the week under review, while mainly skewed towards market heavies and medium caps which notched by 30.8% and 12.1% a piece. The ZSE closed the week at a month-to-date nominal growth of 29.89%, which is currently the second highest monthly outturn in over 10-months so far, while on a year-to-date basis the market closed at a nominal surge of 52%. In US$ terms, the ZSE boasts of a 20% growth, which is the highest in Africa so far, followed by Malawi Stock Exchange which closed at 12%. The notable slow-down in inflation in recent months, along with the new Monetary Policy measures, have boosted investor morale and liquidity on the market as the ZSE regains its reputation as a safe haven at least in the short-term. On the downside, the US$ denominated bourse, VFEX, extended prior week's looses owing to sell-offs induced by profit taking from investors. The trio of SeedCo Interna- tional, Padenga and Simbisa dwindled by -3.53%, -0.35% and -0.32% in that respec- tive order. Meanwhile, the shareholders of Axia passed the resolution to delist the company from ZSE for a subsequent listing on VFEX in the recent EGM. Despite a continued slow-down in inflation over the recent months owing to tightened liquidity and other measures implemented by the Central Bank, the ZWL continues to lose its grip on both the formal and informal currency markets against the US$. The ZWL depreciated by -3.73% of its value in the week under review against the green- back to close at ZWL835.0978 on the sole legal currency market (interbank). On the Reuters Auction market, the local unit depreciated by -3% against the US$ to settle at ZWL801.6023 at the close of the most recent currency auction trading week. dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ 29 ZSE ASI 23,653.77 24,782.89 25,345.22 26,658.62 28,676.92 29,631.60 25.27% ZSE TOP 10 14,407.72 15,222.34 15,536.68 16,671.77 18,149.19 18,844.57 30.79% D/hDW/Ey 49,388.84 50,707.50 51,419.50 52,103.25 54,301.03 55,373.79 12.12% ZSE TOP 15 16,134.99 17,012.45 17,306.08 18,465.22 20,104.84 20,871.15 29.35% ZWL INTERBAN< 803.9186 805.8788 812.1532 817.0563 831.8147 835.0978 -3.73% ^D>>W/Ey 497,412.08 504,953.31 503,052.75 508,840.28 511,966.43 511,401.70 2.81%

Copper (US$/t) Copper prices have been on an impressive run in recent weeks, as strong investor demand and a positive market sentiment have kept the precious metal's prices buoyant. Copper prices broke out of their three-week range on last week with prices reaching their highest level in several months. Investors have been drawn to the metal due to its status as a reliable safe-haven asset that provides protection and stability during periods of economic and political uncertainty. This week, however Copper prices pared 0.61%. Copper prices have fallen 7.44% since the start of the year. Aluminium (US$/t) On Thursday, aluminium prices fell to its lowest level in several months even as the metal attracted the attention of investors seeking a safe haven during turbulent economic times. The surge in prices has been largely driven by strong investor demand and an upbeat outlook in the global economy. In recent weeks, prices have been bolstered by reports of increased demand in several key mar- kets and a lack of predictable supply. This week aluminium prices fell 5.46% while paring 11.88% on a year-to-date basis. Nickel (US$/t) Nickel prices have been on a hot streak in recent weeks, gaining 31.65% since the year began with investors looking to the metal for protection and stability amid turbulent economic conditions. Prices have been boosted in part by reports of increased demand in several key markets and a lack of predictable supply. Last Monday nickel prices broke out of their three-week range before falling to cap the week at $27,327. The surge in prices has largely been driven by strong investor demand and a positive outlook in the global economy. However, this week Nickel declined 8.72%. Brent/Oil (US$/b) Oil prices moved higher this week, reaching a two-week high after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments bolstered buying interest in the precious commodity. Brent oil prices rose 3.94% on a week on week narrative, increasing from $82 to $85 on Thursday and overall gained 9.81% since the start of the year. Oil had traded mostly sideways until Thursday when Powell mentioned a dovish stance in his congressional testimony, leading to an uptick in oil prices, buoyed by the performance of the petrodollar. We expect a cool down next week as the market prices in. :HHNO\ &RPPRGLW\3XOVH Gold (US$/oz) Gold prices have remained relatively steady in recent weeks as traders remained cautious ahead of crucial data releases from the U.S. and other economies. The U.S. dollar has remained strong in the currency market, suppressing gold prices to some extent. Last week, gold prices ended with a modest gain on improved investment demand. In the week under review, price declined 1.12%. However on year-to-date basis, gold is up 3.62%. Gold prices have seen a steady incline over the past week as market sentiment remains optimistic of strong demand and higher prices ahead. The yellow metal, widely viewed as a hedge against inflation, has been sought as a safe-haven asset in times of economic uncertainty and political upheaval. Platinum (US$/oz) Platinum prices have been on a steady upwards trajectory in recent weeks, buoyed by strong demand and a positive market sentiment. Prices of the precious metal hit a three-week high early last month, due largely to its status as a safe-haven asset in times of economic and political volatility. Investors, seeking alternative stores of value during periods of turmoil, have increasingly turned to platinum as a reliable option. However, in the week under review, platinum prices plummeted 5.31%. However, on a year to date basis, platinum has gained 1.24% dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ 30 1͕828.60 Daily % ChĂnge 2-Feb-23 1͕916 3-Feb-23 1͕863 6-Feb-23 1͕866 7-Feb-23 1͕871 8-Feb-23 1͕877 9-Feb-23 1͕895 WoW -1.12% YTD 3.62% 1͕770 1͕790 1͕810 1͕830 1͕850 1͕870 1͕890 1͕910 1͕930 1͕950 9-Jan-23 15-Jan-23 21-Jan-23 27-Jan-23 2-Feb-23 8-Feb-23 965.80 Daily % ChĂnge 2-Feb-23 1͕033 3-Feb-23 980 6-Feb-23 975 7-Feb-23 986 8-Feb-23 987 9-Feb-23 978 WoW -5.31% YTD 1.24% 940 965 990 1͕015 1͕040 1͕065 1͕090 1͕115 9-Jan-23 15-Jan-23 21-Jan-23 27-Jan-23 2-Feb-23 8-Feb-23 9͕720.50 Daily % ChĂnge 2-Feb-23 9͕053 3-Feb-23 8͕981 6-Feb-23 8͕872 7-Feb-23 8͕925 8-Feb-23 8͕893 9-Feb-23 8͕997 WoW -0.61% YTD -7.44% 8͕100 8͕300 8͕500 8͕700 8͕900 9͕100 9͕300 9͕500 9-Jan-23 15-Jan-23 21-Jan-23 27-Jan-23 2-Feb-23 8-Feb-23 20͕757 Daily % ChĂnge 2-Feb-23 29͕790 3-Feb-23 28͕612 6-Feb-23 27͕258 7-Feb-23 27͕248 8-Feb-23 27͕390 9-Feb-23 27͕327 WoW -8.27% YTD 31.65% 25͕000 27͕000 29͕000 31͕000 9-Jan-23 15-Jan-23 21-Jan-23 27-Jan-23 2-Feb-23 8-Feb-23 77.78 Daily % ChĂnge 2-Feb-23 82 3-Feb-23 80 6-Feb-23 81 7-Feb-23 84 8-Feb-23 85 9-Feb-23 85 WoW 3.94% YTD 9.81% 77.0 79.0 81.0 83.0 85.0 87.0 89.0 9-Jan-23 15-Jan-23 21-Jan-23 27-Jan-23 2-Feb-23 8-Feb-23 2,808 Daily % ChĂnge 2-Feb-23 2͕617 3-Feb-23 2͕570 6-Feb-23 2͕534 7-Feb-23 2͕525 8-Feb-23 2͕481 9-Feb-23 2͕474 WoW -5.46% YTD -11.88% 2͕200 2͕400 2͕600 2͕800 9-Jan-23 15-Jan-23 21-Jan-23 27-Jan-23 2-Feb-23 8-Feb-23

FINANCIAL MARKETS AT A GLANCE 2023 ^ůů^ŚĂƌĞ/ŶĚĞdž ^dŽƉϭϬ/ŶĚĞdž ^^ŵĂůůĂƉ/ŶĚĞdž /ŶƚĞƌďĂŶŬDĂƌŬĞƚZĂƚĞ 7822.18 0.1% :^ůů^ŚĂƌĞ/ŶĚĞdž ^ůů^ŚĂƌĞ/ŶĚĞdž >Ƶ^ůů^ŚĂƌĞ/ŶĚĞdž E'^ůů^ŚĂƌĞ/ŶĚĞdž dKWϱt<>zZ/^Z^ dKWϱt<>z&>>Z^ &/^ Z/^dKE d CFI >d /Z/KZ ,/WWK /EE^KZ ƌŝĚŐĞĨŽƌƚ D/<>^ K< ^K ^dZ&Z/ d^> dĂŶŐĂŶĚĂ 28202.06 450.85 277300 49450 65129.1 7611.07 50700 81508.91 800 17325 5023.59 23917.66 189.59 5200 18318.87 25995.31 454.89 277300 43000 47672.52 6880 44603.56 80978.75 800 15800 4446.39 21800 192.99 5200 16799.13 >Ătest Price W>ĞŶts Previous Week W>ĞŶts ĨƌŝĐĂŶ^ƵŶ y/ 'Z^ Ed^ Zd' dZhtKZd,^ 3600 11484.14 960 1020 1200 250 4803 13904.93 999.88 1020 1200 280 ĐŽĐĂƐŚ KEd /DWWZ^ 7056.36 21855 400 5160.89 14559.88 380 D^,,K> FMP 709.28 1696.31 869 1520 ZdZ >&Z' WZKW>^d/^ dhZE>> tŝůůĚĂůĞ ZŝŽŝŵ 2000 14375 6255 444.25 297.47 16000 2000 14375 6259.76 444 305 14015 &ŝƌƐƚĂƉŝƚĂůĂŶŬ  &, &/>/dz &D> '&^ ED &, ,> 1807.7 14500 7000 2400 1905.14 2300 4440 11300 900 1440.36 14500 6600 2400 1905 2200 4400 11300 790.07 >Ătest Price W>ĞŶts Consumer Consumer ^ƚĂƉůĞƐ Previous Week W>ĞŶts >Ătest Price W>ĞŶts Materials ^ector Previous Week W>ĞŶts >atest Price W>ĞŶts Financial ^Ğctor Previous Week W>ĞŶts KEd >d ĨƌŝĐĂŶ^ƵŶ K^, EDW< 21855 65129.1 4803 7056.36 1725 7845.48 21602.56 1584.01 1917.52 459.87 D^,,K> 'ͬ>d/E'^ tŝůůĚĂůĞ Z/^dKE ^dZ&Z/ 709.28 160 297.47 450.85 189.59 -91.45 -10.25 -3.05 -4.01 -0.42 56% 50% 49% 37% 36% -11% -6% -1% -1% 0% KhEdZ WZ/ Ed^,E' >Ătest Price W>ĞŶts ICT ^ector Previous Week W>ĞŶts >Ătest Price W>ĞŶts ZĞĂůƐtate ^ector Previous Week W>ĞŶts 835.0978 -3.73% 497,412.08 4.8% 14,407.72 5.37% 23,653.77 6.98% 79975.59 0.22% KhEdZ WZ/ Ed^,E' й,E' й,E' 54427.05 0.79% 7233.82 -0.4% 29631.6 18844.57 ZSE ToƉ 10 Indedž ll ^hare inĚex ^ ToƉ10 inĚex WKW 30.8% MKM 63% zT 53% 29631.6 31357.51 ZSE FinĂnciĂls Secƚoƌ ll ^hare inĚex ^ Financials inĚex WKW 7.8% MKM 16% zT 9.3% 29631.6 32118.11 ZSE IndusƚƌiĂlsIndedž (Neǁ) ll ^hare inĚex ^ InĚustrialsInĚex ;newͿ WKW 10.8% MKM 55% zT 50.9% 20525.24 20281 ZSE ReĂl EsƚĂƚe Indedž ll ^hare inĚex ^ Zeal state InĚex WKW 1.2% MKM 14% zT 15.7% 7822… 29631.6 BSE All ShĂƌe Indedž ^ ll ^hare inĚex WKW 0.1% MKM 1.5% zT 1.2% 29631.6 511401.7 ZSE SŵĂll CĂƉ Indedž ll ^hare inĚex ^mall CaƉ inĚex WKW 2.8% MKM 13% zT 13% 29631.6 51429.55 ZSE Consuŵeƌ DiscƌeƟonĂƌLJ Indedž ll ^hare inĚex ^ Consumer iscreƟonary inĚex WKW 28% MKM 48% zT 44.9% 29631.6 36136.73 ZSE ICT Indedž ll ^hare inĚex ^ ICT InĚex WKW 49% MKM 131% zT 106% 22.5% 61% InƚeƌbĂnŬ DĂƌŬeƚ Interbank ll ^hare inĚex 7233.82 29631.6 LhSE All ShĂƌe Indedž >h^ ll ^hare inĚex WKW -0.4% MKM -1.4% zT -1.4% 54427.05 29631.6 NGSEAll ShĂƌe Indedž E'^ ll ^hare inĚex WKW 0.8% MKM 8.2% zT 6.2% 79975.59 29631.6 JSE All ShĂƌe Indedž J^ ll ^hare inĚex WKW 0.2% MKM 8.7% zT 9.5% 29631.6 17642.95 ZSE DĂƚeƌiĂlsIndedž ll ^hare inĚex ^ MaterialsInĚex WKW 4.4% MKM 31% zT 29.5% 29631.6 38831.1 ZSE Consuŵeƌ SƚĂƉlesIndedž ll ^hare inĚex ^ Consumers ^taƉlesinĚex WKW 25 MKM 61% zT 58.9% 29631.6 55373.79 ZSE DediuŵCĂƉ Indedž ll ^hare inĚex MeĚium CaƉ inĚex WKW 12.1% MKM 56% zT 51%

ance to cover their cost of doing business. A mone- tary policy that is too tight may risk the exacerbation of a serve recession, which may go beyond the econ- omy and spill into the social dynamics of an already vulnerable environment. Moreover, with the expected decline in commodity prices, the balance sheets of exporting businesses will be further strained. This will increase the stress on jobs. The decline in commodity prices will follow the decline in overall demand. Some com- modities such as gold may perform well through a recession, as evidenced in the past by their reputation as a store of value. But the overall trajectory of commodity prices will see a decline. With the heavy reliance and exposure, the Zimbabwe- an economy has on the mining sector, a decline in commodity prices will result not only in job losses but also in direct poverty and hunger given the number of small-scale informal miners without the capacity to hedge themselves from losses. The policy trajectory of the RBZ suggests this recognition of the importance of stabiliz- ing demand. In addi- tion to the Banks cut on its policy rate, it has increased export reten- tions to 75% across all sectors, including firms listed on the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange (VFEX). Moreover, Foreign currency retention on domestic sales in foreign currency has increased to 85%. The lend- ing rate on the Medium-term Bank Accommodation (MBA) Facility for the productive sectors, including individuals and MSMEs, has been reduced from 100% to 75% per annum. The aggregated message from the RBZs Mone- tary Statement is that although the bank intends to hold a firm grip on inflation, they are concerned about the looming recession and are willing to support businesses to weather it. Although this timely change of position may be seen to reflect the election period, in that government policies may be made to save face within the industry. Such a conclusion is unlikely given the lag between the time it takes for policies to be implemented and the time it takes for the intended benefits to occur. If the policy position were politically influenced for election purposes, they would have been implemented earlier and in a more drastic way. However, the policies have been consis- tent in their effort to stabilise a historically turbulent economic environment. From the introduction of the local currency, the auction market, and the gold coins among other mea- sures. The RBZ has since shown vigour in realising its mandate. Although the environment remains relav e l y volatile, an inspec- tion of the annual reports of companies across different industries shows an increase in confidence in the stern measures taken. This confidence is crucial to managing expectations. As was stated by the governor of the RBZ in an annual economic report, the management of public expectations is an important driver of inflation. When the public, specifically the business participants have confidence in the strategy of the monetary authority, they will behave in manners that support the strategy and thus support economic stability. As the global slowdown intensifies, it will be the RBZs strategy and the response of companies that will determine the depth of the impact on the Zimbabwean economy. 5HJLRQDO(FRQRPLF Watch Kenya In the latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey, Stanbic Bank Kenya economist Mulalo Madula said private sector activity held up well into January, with new businesses rising IRUWKHȴIWKFRQVHFXWLYHPRQWKRQWKHEDFNRIEHWWHURSHUDWing conditions. 7KLVOHGWRVWRFNSLOLQJH΍RUWVDQGDOVRVSXUUHGKLJKHURXWSXW and consequently growing employment, says the report. Mozambique :RUOG%DQNUDQNV%HLUD3RUWDVWKHPRVWHɝFLHQWLQ6RXWKHUQ Africa.The World Bank recently published the new Container Terminal Performance Index and the Port of Beira stood out by achieving the highest ranking of all Container Terminals in Southern Africa, ahead of Ports such as Durban, Cape Town, Dar Es Salaam and Walvis Bay, as we ranked #270 globally. This performance is a result of the strong investment that we have made in human resources, infrastructure, equipment DQGV\VWHPVDVZHOODVLQLPSURYLQJWKHHɝFLHQF\RIWKH3RUW of Beira. Currently, we are expanding the container yard, as well as the entry and exit complexes. Our target however is not to be the best of Southern Africa, EXW UDWKHU FRPSHWH IRUHɝFLHQF\ZLWK WKH EHVW WHUPLQDOVLQ the world. Competing on ship turn around time as a port with entry and exit restricted to 2 tidal windows per day is not easy. But we will continue to invest in people, infrastructure and new equipment and will deploy our own systems and of third SDUWLHVWRLPSURYHRXUHɝFLHQF\ The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) is produced by the World Bank and ranks ports based on a statistical approach, which is based on ship waiting time in port.In 2021, a total of 370 ports worldwide were assessed. Algeciras in Spain is the highest ranked European port, ranked 10th overall, while King Abdullah Port in Saudi Arabia is the highest ranked port globally. The rankings are based on DYDULHW\RI IDFWRUVVXFKDVHɝFLHQF\UHOLDELOLW\DQGFRVWHIfectiveness. Uganda Uganda’s central bank held its key lending rate UGCBIR=ECI at RQ0RQGD\VD\LQJLWH[SHFWHGLQȵDWLRQZRXOGVORZWR hit its target by the end of the year despite a pick-up in January that it thought would be short-lived. The decision, announced by deputy governor Michael Atingi-Ego at a news conference, was the second time in a row the bank has kept its policy rate unchanged.Last year it raised UDWHVE\EDVLVSRLQWVWRȴJKWLQȵDWLRQΖQȵDWLRQZDV year-on-year in January UGCPIY=ECI from 10.2% a month earOLHUEXW$WLQJL(JRVDLGFRUHLQȵDWLRQZDVH[SHFWHGWRGHFOLQH to the 5% target by the end of 2023. 5LVNVWRWKHLQȵDWLRQRXWORRNLQFOXGHWKHSRWHQWLDOLPSDFWRI LQWHUQDWLRQDO ȴQDQFLDO FRQGLWLRQV RQ WKH 8JDQGDQ VKLOOLQJ UGX= exchange rate, and higher food and energy prices, he added.“The current CBR (Central Bank Rate) would contain domestic demand pressures, while accommodating and supporting economic recovery,” Atingi-Ego said. Egypt Egypt’s central bank kept its overnight interest rates unchanged on Thursday, saying in a statement that steep rate increases put in place over the last year should help to tame LQȵDWLRQ QRZ UXQQLQJ DW 7KH EDQNȇV0RQHWDU\ 3ROLF\ Committee (MPC) kept the lending rate at 17.25% and the deposit rate at 16.25%. The MPC said in its statement that it had front-loaded rate hikes by 800 basis points (bps) over the last year, 500 bps of which were in the fourth quarter, and believed these should FRXQWHULQȵDWLRQDU\SUHVVXUHVΖQ6HSWHPEHU(J\SWȇVFHQWUDO bank increased the reserve ratio at banks by four percentage SRLQWVDPRYHDOVRGHVLJQHGWRGDPSHQLQȵDWLRQ The MPC expected demand-side pressure on prices to continXH DIWHU D 'HFHPEHU KHDGOLQH LQȵDWLRQ ȴJXUH RI  ȊDV evidenced by developments in real economic activity relative to potential capacity and the impact of recent exchange rate ȵXFWXDWLRQVERWKRIZKLFKDUHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKKLJKHUEURDG money growth outturns.” Since March, the central bank has allowed the currency to fall by nearly 50% against the dollar.The MPC said it left rates unchanged to “assess the impact of the implemented front-loaded tightening policies in a data-driven manner,” adding that future policy rates would remain a function of IRUHFDVWUDWKHUWKDQSUHYDLOLQJLQȵDWLRQ dŚĞyŝ^>y//&ƌŝĚĂLJϭϬ&ĞďϮϬϮϯ 32