#Issue : CCXVII fifffflffiflVFEX Forces ResponseZSE Slashes Entry BarriersSouthern Africa Reclaims Food SecurityPoverty Line Exposes RealityGovernment Shields Grain ProducersZSE Loses Another Giant..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
In Focus040608MarketsWorld NewsZSE & VFEX Weekly Markets Dashboard242526271011131415Gap Between Stability & Prosperity : Zim’s Poverty Remains DeepOiling the Economy : Soyabeans Build a New Growth StoryWheat Targets Face Delays : Government Protects Grain MarketsSouth Africa PMI Analysis : Regional Cost ImpactVFEX Takes the Crown : A New Era EmergesEconomic News and AnalysisZSE Cuts Listing Barriers : Bid To Revive ListingsFrom Scarcity to Surplus : Southern Africa's Agricultural RevivalReclaiming Margins : From a Hostile Tax RegimeBusiness Around the WorldPolitics Around the WorldRegional Economic Watch222328Theequityaxis.net @equity axis @equity axis zimbabwe @equity axis @equity axis @equity axis 08677 197 791 @ aaronc[at]equityaxis.netEQUITY AXISFinancial Insights at your FingertipsGuest Column17 Nampak Profit Falls Weekly Commodity PulseMarkets WatchZSE & VFEX WeeklyFinancial Markets At a GlanceThe AXiS CCXVII Jun 2026Cover PagePage 11Page 11Page 19Capital Markets 181921FMP Shareholders Approve ZSE DelistingNampak's Zimbabwe Exit : Delivers Harsh Verdict on Investment RiskRioZim at Record Lows : From Gold Producer to CaretakerZSE ASI VFEX ASI ZWG INTERBANK RATE 27/0528/0529/0601/0602/0603/0627/0528/0529/0601/0602/0603/0627/0528/0529/0601/0602/0603/06393.66 238.49391.12 244.09389.26 245.12385.95 232.42386.06 232.78389.31 229.62-1.11% -3.72%26.4626.8926.9226.8526.8926.85-1.44%ZSE TOP 10 INDEX MEDIUM CAP INDEX SMALL CAP INDEX 100.11100.11100.11100.11100.11100.110.00%388.40384.96384.31379.59380.60384.6715/0518/0519/0520/0521/0522/05-0.96%443.73445.06437.76440.52436.67436.4727/0528/0529/0601/0602/0603/06-1.64% 27/0528/0529/0601/0602/0603/06
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he Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) has unveiled the most significant relaxation of listing requirements in its recent history. The exchange has reduced the minimum market capitalisation requirement for new listings from US$10 million to US$1 million. It has lowered the minimum free-float requirement from 30% to 10%, relaxed shareholder spread requirements, waived initial listing fees for new issuers and eased selected compliance obliga- tions. The reforms, contained in Practice Note 18, will remain in place for three years.The announcement comes at a critical moment for Zimbabwe's capital markets. The ZSE is grappling with declining market capitalisation, subdued listing activity and intensifying compe- tition from the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange (VFEX). What was once an uncontested market leader is now operating in a more competitive environment where issuers have alternatives.Following the delisting of Econet Wireless Zim- babwe on March 31, 2026, the ZSE's market capitalisation fell sharply. By the end of April, market value had declined to approximately US$2.58 billion. Although the exchange recov- ered modestly to US$2.73 billion by the end of May, it remained well behind the VFEX, whose market capitalisation stood at US$3.78 billion.For an institution that has dominated Zimba- bwe's equity market for more than 130 years, the shift is significant. Practice Note 18 should therefore be viewed as more than a technical adjustment to listing rules. It represents a strate- gic attempt to rebuild the exchange's competi- tiveness and restore its role as a preferred plat- form for capital raising.The centrepiece of the reforms is the reduction in the minimum market capitalisation threshold. Under the previous framework, companies gen- erally needed a market value of at least US$10 million to qualify for listing. The new rules allow the exchange to accept applications from com- panies with a market capitalisation of not less than US$1 million.This ten-fold reduction fundamentally changes the pool of businesses that can realistically con- sider a public listing.Historically, many small and medium-sized enterprises have been excluded from the stock market because they could not meet the size requirements. This was not necessarily because they lacked growth potential. Many were simply too small to satisfy listing criteria designed with larger corporations in mind.Zimbabwe's economy is increasingly driven by SMEs, entrepreneurs and owner-managed businesses. These firms often face significant challenges when seeking growth capital. Bank lending can be expensive and difficult to access, particularly for younger businesses with limited collateral. Private equity remains rela- tively underdeveloped, leaving many firms dependent on retained earnings to fund expan- sion. Lower listing thresholds create an alterna- tive funding avenue.Businesses that previously viewed the stock market as inaccessible may now consider public capital raising as a realistic option. This could broaden participation in capital markets and increase the number of companies seeking funding through equity rather than debt.The reduction in free-float requirements is equally important. The exchange has reduced the minimum proportion of shares available for public trading from 30% to 10%.This addresses one of the most common con- cerns among business owners considering a public listing. Many entrepreneurs are reluctant to surrender large ownership stakes in exchange for access to capital. Family-owned businesses, in particular, often prioritise control and succession planning. Under the previous rules, listing could require a substantial dilution of ownership.The new framework provides greater flexibility. Founders can retain larger stakes while still accessing public markets. This may prove particularly attractive to growth-oriented busi- nesses that require capital but wish to maintain strategic control.The concession does, however, raise important questions. A lower free float can reduce liquidity within the market. Fewer shares available for trading can make it more difficult for investors to buy and sell positions efficiently. Thinly traded counters often experience greater price volatility and wider bid-ask spreads.Institutional investors generally prefer liquid markets. Pension funds, insurance companies and asset managers require the ability to deploy capital efficiently and exit positions when neces- sary. A market characterised by numerous small companies with limited public shareholding may not automatically attract institutional participa- tion.The challenge for the ZSE will be balancing accessibility with market quality. The same prin- ciple applies to the relaxation of shareholder spread requirements. The exchange has indi- cated that companies will require a minimum of 50 public shareholders. This is intended to reduce another barrier that has historically com- plicated the listing process for smaller firms.The ZSE wants more companies to list. The exchange has also moved aggressively to reduce listing costs. Initial listing fees for new issuers have been waived for the duration of the three-year concession period. The exchange has further relaxed certain compliance require- ments, including the obligation for interim finan- cial statements to undergo external auditor reviews under listing rules.Listing costs can be substantial, particularly for smaller businesses. Legal fees, advisory fees, audit costs and regulatory expenses often create barriers that discourage potential issu- ers. Reducing these costs improves the eco- nomics of going public. The reforms also reflect growing recognition that capital markets must compete for issuers.Historically, stock exchanges often functioned as gatekeepers. Companies sought listings because there were few alternatives for raising long-term capital. Today's environment is differ- ent. Businesses can access funding through private investors, venture capital, private equity, development finance institutions and alternative exchanges. The rise of the VFEX has reinforced this reality. Established only six years ago, the VFEX has rapidly evolved into Zimbabwe's larg- est stock exchange by market capitalisation. Its US dollar-denominated operating environment and various investment incentives have helped attract listings and investor interest.The emergence of a credible competitor has altered the dynamics of Zimbabwe's capital markets. The ZSE can no longer rely solely on its history and established position. It must actively compete for issuers, investors and market relevance. Practice Note 18 is therefore a competitive response as much as it is a regu- latory reform. The exchange appears to be repositioning itself as a platform for emerging businesses and growth companies. Rather than competing exclusively for large established corporates, it is widening its focus to include firms that may have previously been excluded from public markets.There are compelling reasons to support this strategy. A healthy stock exchange requires a continuous pipeline of new listings. New compa- nies bring fresh investment opportunities, improve market depth and increase the diversity of sectors represented on the exchange. They also contribute to capital formation by connect- ing businesses with long-term funding.For now, the exchange has made a decisive statement about the direction it intends to take. Faced with declining market share, increasing competition and a shrinking listing pipeline, the ZSE has chosen to lower barriers and broaden access to public capital. The strategy is bold, pragmatic and largely necessary given current market conditions.The next three years will determine whether Practice Note 18 succeeds in revitalising Zim- babwe's primary equities market or simply increases the number of listed companies with- out fundamentally changing market activi- ty.What is certain is that the battle for relevance within Zimbabwe's capital markets has entered a new phase, and the ZSE has responded with its strongest reform package in years.ZSE Cuts Listing BarriersThe AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 4Bid To Revive ListingsT
The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 5*To Page 6or much of the past two years, discus- sions around Southern African agricul- ture have been dominated by drought, food insecurity, inflation, and emergency grain imports. The El Niño-induced weather shock of 2024 exposed the vulnerability of agricultural systems across the region, with millions of households pushed into food stress and gov- ernments forced to intervene through imports, subsidies, and relief programmes. However, midway through 2026, a very different narrative is emerging.South Africa, the continent's largest maize producer, has resumed large-scale maize exports after forecasting what could become the largest maize harvest in its history. Commercial maize production is now projected at 17.06 million tonnes, significantly exceeding annual domestic requirements of approximately 12 million tonnes and creating an exportable surplus of nearly 5 million tonnes. The develop- ment is significant not merely because of its size, but because of what it signals about the broader agricultural trajectory of Southern Africa.The region's three major maize-producing econ- omies, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe, are simultaneously recording strong harvests. Taken together, these outcomes represent one of the most important agricultural recoveries in recent Southern African history.For Zimbabwe in particular, the implications extend beyond food security. The latest harvest data suggest that the country is entering a period where agricultural policy can gradually shift from crisis management towards strategic surplus management.Latest agricultural figures indicate that Zimba- bwe has harvested approximately 2.72 million tonnes of maize from the 2025/26 summer crop- ping season. This is a remarkable achievement when viewed against the backdrop of the severe drought conditions experienced only a year earlier. National maize requirements are estimated at roughly 2.2 million tonnes annually. Of this, approximately 1.8 million tonnes are required for direct human consumption while the remainder supports livestock feed, industrial processing, seed reserves and strategic stocks.At current production levels, Zimbabwe has effectively secured national food requirements while creating room for reserve accumulation.The significance of this cannot be overstated. Food security is not merely about producing enough grain for one season. It is about creat- ing sufficient buffers to withstand future climatic shocks, stabilise prices, support vulnerable households and reduce dependence on imports.The 2025/26 harvest appears to have achieved all four objectives simultaneously. Mashonaland West alone produced over 1.14 million tonnes of maize, while Mashonaland Central delivered more than 552,000 tonnes. Strong performanc- es were also recorded across Manicaland, Mashonaland East, Midlands and Masvingo.The geographical spread of production is equal- ly encouraging because it indicates that the recovery is not concentrated in one isolated farming zone but reflects broader national improvement.What makes Zimba- bwe's harvest particu- larly important is that it is occurring alongside similar gains across the region. Zambia is expected to produce approximately 4.9 million tonnes of maize during the 2025/26 season, surpassing its previous record harvest of about 3.9 million tonnes. With national maize require- ments estimated at roughly 4.2 million tonnes, Zambia is once again positioned as a net surplus producer.Meanwhile, South Africa's anticipated 17 million tonne crop places it among the strongest maize-producing seasons ever recorded on the continent. When Southern Africa's three largest maize-producing economies simultaneously generate surpluses, the implications extend well beyond national borders. In effect, Southern Africa becomes less vulnerable to global grain market disruptions.The timing of these harvests is particularly important when viewed against the latest regional food security assessments. The March 2026 Southern African Development Communi- ty (SADC) food security snapshot shows that despite improvements from the previous year's drought, approximately 38.8 million people across eight Southern African countries remain in IPC Phase 3 or above, meaning they face acute food insecurity and require urgent inter- vention.The report highlights continued food insecurity challenges across countries such as Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Lesotho, Namibia and Zambia, driven by climatic shocks, high food prices, macroeconomic pressures and recurring weather-related disruptions.Malawi alone is projected to see approximately four million people facing high levels of acute food insecurity during the lean season. Mozambique is expected to have around 3.5 million people in crisis condi- tions, while Madagas- car faces projections of approximately 1.8 million people experi- encing severe food insecurity.Against this backdrop, the emergence of sub- stantial grain surplus- es in South Africa, Zambia and Zimba- bwe becomes strategically important.The region's challenge is no longer simply producing food. The challenge is ensuring efficient movement of food from surplus zones to deficit zones. This distinction matters. History shows that food insecurity is often less about absolute shortages and more about access, affordability and distribution. Zimbabwe's bumper harvest creates an oppor- tunity that extends beyond domestic food secu- rity. The country can strengthen strategic grain reserves, reduce inflationary pressures on staple foods, support livestock recovery programmes and potentially participate more actively in regional grain markets. Food inflation has historically been one of the most politically and economically sensitive variables in Zimba- bwe.When grain supplies tighten, maize meal prices rise, household purchasing power weakens and broader inflationary expectations become more difficult to manage. Conversely, adequate grain availability creates a stabilising effect across the economy. Lower feed costs support poultry and livestock production. Stable maize prices sup- port household welfare. Reduced import requirements ease pressure on foreign curren- cy demand.These second-round benefits often generate economic gains that exceed the value of the grain itself. The most encouraging aspect of the current agricultural season is that it appears to reflect more than favourable rainfall alone. Across the region, governments increasingly emphasised input distribution programmes, climate adaptation measures, irrigation invest- ments and productivity support mechanisms.In Zimbabwe, Government-backed agricultural initiatives, improved access to inputs and enhanced extension support contributed to stronger production outcomes. While weather remains a decisive factor in Southern African agriculture, the 2025/26 season suggests that policy interventions are beginning to generate measurable results when combined with favour- able climatic conditions.The sustainability of these gains will depend on maintaining investment momentum. Storage infrastructure, irrigation systems, logistics networks and market efficiency will determine whether current surpluses translate into long-term agricultural resilience.The story unfolding across Southern Africa in 2026 is larger than maize. Only a year ago, much of the region was managing the conse- quences of one of the most severe drought episodes in recent memory. Today, the conver- sation has shifted towards surplus manageFrom Scarcity to SurplusSouthern Africa's Agricultural RevivalF
The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 6 ement, export opportunities and regional trade.South Africa's return to major maize exports, Zambia's record-breaking harvest and Zimba- bwe's production of more than 2.7 million tonnes collectively signal a region rebuilding agricultural momentum. For investors, policy- makers and agribusiness leaders, the most important takeaway may be that Southern Africa is demonstrating an ability to recover from climatic shocks faster than many anticipated.The 2026 harvest season may ultimately be remembered not simply for its record volumes, but for marking the moment when Southern Africa began moving from food vulnerability back towards food resilience.*From Page 5elta Corporation carries a live tax dispute of US$97 million. Zimplats contested US$7.1 million in royalties assessed on products for which no legal rate existed. Innscor paid US$9.26 million under protest. OK Zimba- bwe faces a US$2.05 million civil penalty. National Foods settled US$3.38 million under compulsion while disputing the legal basis. The aggregate disclosed tax dispute exposure across Zimbabwe's listed sector now exceeds US$130 million, and the true cost, once legal fees, management distraction, provisioning drag, and margin compression from pass-through levies are included, runs consid- erably deeper than the headline figures sug- gest.Zimbabwe's formalised corporate sector has become the primary revenue generation instru- ment for a government managing a budget in an economy where 76.1% of all operating estab- lishments are informal. ZIMRA's own data con- firms that revenue inflow from the informal economy is less than 0.5% of the economic activity that sector generates and the fiscal mathematics are stark. A government that needs to fund public expenditure across a full economy extracts the overwhelming majority of its tax revenue from the 23.9% of businesses that are formal, registered, and auditable. The listed companies on the ZSE and VFEX are the most visible, most auditable, and most legally constrained participants in the entire economy. They pay first, and they pay the most.The consequence is a tax pressure architecture that the companies themselves describe in con- sistent terms across their financial disclosures as volatile fiscal legislation, retrospective assessments, conflicting interpretations of currency rules, and a \"pay now, argue later\" enforcement posture that removes liquidity from operations before disputes are resolved. The cumulative effect on net margins, capital alloca- tion decisions, and investor perception of Zim- babwe as a project destination is the central analytical problem this article addresses.The Case Register- What Listed Compa- nies DiscloseDelta Corporation's tax dispute with ZIMRA, which originated from assessments for the 2019 to 2022 tax years, reached US$97 million by early 2026, up from US$73 million the previous year, with the US$24 million increase linked primarily to the 2021 tax year. The core dispute turns on ZIMRA's retroactive application of an apportionment method, the turnover-ratio method, which Delta contends had no legal establishment at the time it was applied. ZIMRA assessed that transactions settled in Zimbabwe dollars should have been paid exclusively in foreign currency, and issued additional VAT assessments based on public notices in advance of enacted legislation. Delta has already paid US$9.2 million under the pay now, argue later principle and lost its Constitutional Court challenge in July 2025, meaning the residual balance may require settlement unless tax court appeals succeed.The tax burden on Delta extends beyond the dispute figure. Delta paid US$315.2 million in total taxes in the year to December 2025, which is 39% of its US$807.47 million revenue for the period. The sugar tax, introduced in January 2024 at US$0.02 per gram of sugar content and later reduced under industry pressure, cost Delta US$31.2 million in the February to December 2024 period alone. At the time it was introduced at its original rate, analysts estimat- ed Delta's total tax obligations for the financial year ending March 2025 could reach US$255 million. For a company generating under US$1 billion in revenue, a combined tax, levy, and dispute provisioning burden of that magnitude compresses net margin to a figure that makes new capital investment difficult to justify.Zimplats, listed on the Australian Stock Exchange and operating as Impala Platinum's Zimbabwean arm, described its fiscal environ- ment as \"volatile, highly complex and subject to interpretation\" in its preliminary final report for the year ended June 2024. ZIMRA assessed Zimplats for royalty shortfalls of ZWL 2.03 billion, approximately US$7.1 million, on matte and concentrate exported between June 2018 and December 2021, arguing that royalties should have been calculated on the gross market value of the final refined mineral. The High Court ruled in January 2026 that no royalty rate had existed for mineral-bearing products in the Finance Act during the disputed period, and that a 2025 retrospective amendment to the Finance Act could not create a liability where none existed at the time. Zimplats won the case, but the legal and management cost of a multi-year dispute over a retrospectively applied tax on products for which the law contained no charging provision is a concrete example of the regulatory risk premium Zimbabwe's fiscal framework imposes on mining investors.Innscor Africa paid US$9.26 million under the pay now, argue later principle out of total assessed amounts disclosed in its financial results for the year ended June 2024. Innscor described \"legislative gaps giving rise to differ- ences in interpretations\" as the root cause of its disputes, covering periods 2019 to 2021, where ZIMRA assessed that amounts settled in Zimba- bwe dollars should have been paid in foreign currency with no credit given for the equivalent local currency payments already made.National Foods contested US$4.49 million in additional assessments covering income taxes, penalties, and interest for 2019 to 2021, paying US$3.38 million under compulsion while appealing. The company carried these pay- ments as prepayments on its balance sheet and not as tax expense, which is the mechanically correct accounting treatment for amounts under dispute, but one that reduces working capital availability for operations and procurement.OK Zimbabwe received a civil penalty order of US$2.05 million under Section 81B of the Value Added Tax Act, calculated on 914 tills over a 90-day period from January 2024, in connection with the Fiscalised Device Management System rollout. OK Zimbabwe contests both the legality of the penalty and the accuracy of the till count used in ZIMRA's calculation, arguing that tech- nical setbacks in system integration were com- municated to the authority in advance. The pen- alty was disclosed in results for the year ended March 2025, a period in which the retailer was already navigating compressed consumer spending and working capital pressure.Dairibord Zimbabwe absorbed US$2.26 million in sugar tax costs in 2024, which weighed directly on profitability in a business where mar- gins are structurally thin across the dairy and beverages value chain. It also reported a tax dispute and penalty with ZIMRA.The True Cost - Beyond the Dispute FigureThe disclosed dispute amounts understate the total cost of Zimbabwe's tax risk environment in three ways.Legal and professional fees consume manage- ment bandwidth and cash. Each of the compa- nies listed above has engaged tax practitioners and legal counsel to navigate objection processes, appeals, and court proceedings across multiple tax years simultaneously. These costs are not separately disclosed in financial statements but sit inside administrative and overhead lines. For a company like Delta man- aging a US$97 million dispute across multiple tax years and currency denominations, the legal cost over the dispute lifecycle is material.The pay now, argue later principle removes liquidity from operations before disputes are resolved. ZIMRA's legal authority to collect assessed amounts while appeals proceed means that companies are effectively extending an interest-free loan to the fiscus on amounts that courts may ultimately find were never owed. Delta has paid US$9.2 million on the disputed assessment. Innscor paid US$9.26 million. National Foods paid US$3.38 million. These cash outflows reduce the capital avail- able for working capital, procurement, and expansion investment in the period of dispute, with repayment mechanisms that may refund devalued local currency amounts even where the original dispute is resolved in the company's favour.DReclaiming MarginsFrom a Hostile Tax Regime*To Page 7
The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 7! The margin compression from sectoral levies compounds the dispute exposure. Delta's effec- tive tax rate on revenue reached 39% in 2025 when all taxes, levies, and the sugar tax are aggregated. At a net margin of approximately 7% on revenue in recent years before the current tax cycle, a 39% revenue-to-tax ratio means the company retains roughly US$57 million of an US$810 million revenue base after tax. That retention level does not support the capital expenditure required to maintain com- petitive infrastructure, expand capacity, or fund the export development that Zimbabwe's foreign currency generation requires.For investors evaluating new project commit- ments in Zimbabwe, the disclosed dispute register functions as a risk disclosure docu- ment. A prospective investor reading Delta, Zim- plats, Innscor, OK Zimbabwe, and National Foods disclosures simultaneously sees a pattern of retrospective currency apportionment disputes, royalty assessments on legally ambig- uous product categories, civil penalties on tech- nical compliance failures, and a fiscal frame- work that its largest practitioners describe as volatile and open to conflicting interpretation. The pattern, across five major listed companies simultaneously, consolidates into a country risk premium that raises the required return for new investment and compresses the pipeline of proj- ects that clear the investment threshold.Why Government Keeps PressingGovernment's revenue imperative is legitimate and quantifiable. Zimbabwe's tax-to-GDP ratio sits at approximately 17%, against an African average of 22.5% and developed economy averages above 30%. The ZimStat Economic Census confirms that informalisation has deep- ened to 76.1% of establishments, with informal sector tax collection at less than 0.5% of that sector's economic contribution. The formal sector, led by listed companies, carries the fiscal weight of an economy three to four times its registered size.ZIMRA exceeded its revenue collection targets repeatedly through 2022 to 2025, which creates an institutional incentive to continue the enforcement approach that delivered those results. The pay now, argue later principle, aggressive retrospective assessment of curren- cy apportionment for the 2019 to 2022 transition period, and the use of public notices to establish tax bases before legislation is enacted all reflect a revenue authority under pressure to maximise collections from the sources it can access. The formal sector is that source. The informal sector, which accounts for 76% of establishments and close to 80% of employment, contributes 0.5% of its economic value to the revenue base.Five Disciplines Companies Can Deploy NowZimbabwe's listed companies can build a tax risk management architecture that reduces dispute exposure, improves predictability, and preserves the margin headroom that domestic demand growth requires to be commercially captured.The first discipline is contemporaneous docu- mentation. Every transaction involving currency conversion, intercompany pricing, or remunera- tion structure requires documentation created at the time of the transaction, filed in the manner ZIMRA would require if it audited that period three years later. ZIMRA holds that 80% of fiscal revenue loss arises from transfer pricing, which means transfer pricing documentation is the highest-risk exposure category for any compa- ny with related-party transactions. The Finance Act now mandates this documentation. Compa- nies that treat it as a compliance checkbox and not as a strategic risk mitigation instrument expose themselves to the full range of Section 98 commissioner override powers.The second discipline is proactive dispute engagement before assessment. ZIMRA's voluntary disclosure programme, open until June 30, 2026, offers companies the opportuni- ty to regularise their tax affairs for the 2025 assessment year without the full penalty and interest exposure that post-assessment disputes attract. Companies that use this window to resolve legacy ZiG-denominated currency apportionment exposures before ZIMRA raises assessments reduce their dispute stock and their pay now, argue later cash outflows simultaneously.The third discipline is tax provisioning as a stra- tegic variable. Companies that carry uncertain tax positions without provisions, relying solely on legal opinion that no liability exists, expose their financial statements to restatement risk and their boards to governance exposure. The correct accounting treatment, recognised by National Foods in its prepayment approach, is to carry disputed amounts as balance sheet provisions or prepayments with clear disclo- sure. This approach does not concede the legal position but manages the financial statement risk of a sudden crystallisation event.The fourth discipline is sector coordination. Delta, Innscor, Dairibord, and National Foods are all subject to the sugar tax and share the same currency apportionment dispute profile from the 2019 to 2022 transition period. The Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries and the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce provide platforms for coordinated industry engagement with Treasury and ZIMRA on legis- lative gaps that affect multiple companies identi- cally. Innscor's successful advocacy for extend- ing the sugar tax to imported beverages demon- strates that coordinated sector engagement produces policy outcomes that individual com- pany engagement does not. The same model applies to the currency apportionment dispute category, where a sector-wide negotiated reso- lution would benefit the fiscus, reduce ZIMRA's litigation load, and restore the operational predictability that investment decisions require.The fifth discipline is legal architecture review. The Zimplats High Court ruling of January 2026 and the ZIMASCO Supreme Court precedent establish that no tax obligation arises without a clear statutory charging provision, and that retrospective legislative amendments cannot create liabilities that did not exist at the time of the transaction. Companies facing assess- ments on products, transactions, or periods where the applicable rate or charging provision is legally ambiguous now have direct precedent to challenge those assessments. Engaging tax practitioners familiar with the Zimplats and ZIMASCO precedents at the objection stage, before assessment escalation, is the lower-cost path to dispute resolution.How Other Economies Resolved Compa- rable PressuresZimbabwe's dispute profile has direct parallels in economies that navigated rapid currency transitions combined with aggressive retroac- tive tax enforcement. Three cases carry appli- cable lessons.Ghana's currency transition disputes in the early 2010s, following the introduction of the Ghana Cedi and subsequent inflationary periods, produced a comparable pattern of retrospective VAT and corporate income tax assessments on companies that had transacted in multiple currency denominations. The Ghana Revenue Authority and the business sector reached a structured resolution through a Tax Amnesty Programme in 2012 and 2017, which allowed companies to regularise prior-period exposures at a discounted rate without the full penalty and interest load. The programmes widened the tax base by bringing informal operators into the formal net simultaneously, distributing the reve- nue impact across a larger number of contribu- tors.Rwanda's tax reform programme, executed between 2008 and 2018, produced a 10-per- centage-point increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio without increasing the statutory rate on formal sector companies. The mechanism was digital formalisation of the informal sector through Rwanda Revenue Authority's electronic billing system and SME registration programme, which converted informal traders into registered contributors. Zimbabwe's own Fiscalised Device Management System, which generated the OK Zimbabwe penalty dispute, is an ana- logue of this approach. The lesson Rwanda's experience delivers is that the formalisation technology works when it is implemented with a grace period, technical support, and a clear communication framework, ahead of immediate civil penalty enforcement on the first non-com- pliant quarter.South Africa's Tax Administration Act, enacted in 2011, created a Dispute Resolution function that separates the tax assessment process from the collection enforcement process, allowing companies to challenge assessments without the full pay now, argue later liquidity extraction that Zimbabwe's current framework imposes. The South African approach reduced litigation volume at the Tax Court by channelling disputes into a structured administrative objection process with defined timelines and outcomes. Zimbabwe's tax courts handle volumes that a structured administrative dispute resolution function could absorb more efficiently, reducing costs for both companies and the revenue authority.The Strategic ImperativeZimbabwe's domestic demand is growing. Del- ta's revenue rose to US$1.1 billion in 2026, up from US$800 million the prior year. Dairibord recorded a 66% rise in profit before tax to US$5.34 million for the year ended December 2025. The consumer economy is recovering and formal sector companies have the scale to capture that recovery. The risk is that a tax envi- ronment which consumes 39% of revenue at Delta and generates nine-figure dispute regis- ters across the listed sector simultaneously will compress the capital available for the capacity expansion that demand growth requires, and will deter the greenfield investment from outside Zimbabwe that would accelerate the cycle.Zimbabwe's government collects more from formal companies than those companies can sustain alongside the investment obligations that growth requires. The informal sector gener- ates 76% of economic establishments and con- tributes less than 0.5% of its value to the reve- nue base. The arithmetic of fiscal sustainability runs through informal sector formalisation, not through deeper extraction from the formal com- panies that are already at the margin of what their profit structures can absorb. ZIMRA's 2025 voluntary disclosure programme and the 2025 budget's mandatory income tax registration for informal traders in fabric, clothing, automotive, hardware, and groceries sectors are both steps in the right direction. The pace and the sequencing of those steps, however, need to move faster than the rate at which dispute-driv- en margin compression reduces the investable capacity of the companies that currently carry the revenue base.Reclaiming Margins From a Hostile Tax Regime Delta Corporation carries a live tax dispute of US$97 million. Zimplats contested US$7.1 million in royalties assessed on products for which no legal rate existed. Innscor paid US$9.26 million under protest. OK Zimbabwe faces a US$2.05 million civil penalty. National Foods settled US$3.38 million under compul- sion while disputing the legal basis. The aggre- gate disclosed tax dispute exposure across Zimbabwe's listed sector now exceeds US$130 million, and the true cost, once legal fees, man- agement distraction, provisioning drag, and margin compression from pass-through levies are included, runs considerably deeper than the headline figures suggest.Zimbabwe's formalised corporate sector has become the primary revenue generation instru- ment for a government managing a budget in an economy where 76.1% of all operating estab- lishments are informal. ZIMRA's own data con- firms that revenue inflow from the informal economy is less than 0.5% of the economic activity that sector generates and the fiscal *From Page 6*To Page 8
The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 8*To Page 9*From Page 7 mathematics are stark. A government that needs to fund public expenditure across a full economy extracts the overwhelming majority of its tax revenue from the 23.9% of businesses that are formal, registered, and auditable. The listed companies on the ZSE and VFEX are the most visible, most auditable, and most legally constrained participants in the entire economy. They pay first, and they pay the most.The consequence is a tax pressure architecture that the companies themselves describe in con- sistent terms across their financial disclosures as volatile fiscal legislation, retrospective assessments, conflicting interpretations of currency rules, and a \"pay now, argue later\" enforcement posture that removes liquidity from operations before disputes are resolved. The cumulative effect on net margins, capital alloca- tion decisions, and investor perception of Zim- babwe as a project destination is the central analytical problem this article addresses.The Case Register- What Listed Compa- nies DiscloseDelta Corporation's tax dispute with ZIMRA, which originated from assessments for the 2019 to 2022 tax years, reached US$97 million by early 2026, up from US$73 million the previous year, with the US$24 million increase linked primarily to the 2021 tax year. The core dispute turns on ZIMRA's retroactive application of an apportionment method, the turnover-ratio method, which Delta contends had no legal establishment at the time it was applied. ZIMRA assessed that transactions settled in Zimbabwe dollars should have been paid exclusively in foreign currency, and issued additional VAT assessments based on public notices in advance of enacted legislation. Delta has already paid US$9.2 million under the pay now, argue later principle and lost its Constitutional Court challenge in July 2025, meaning the residual balance may require settlement unless tax court appeals succeed.The tax burden on Delta extends beyond the dispute figure. Delta paid US$315.2 million in total taxes in the year to December 2025, which is 39% of its US$807.47 million revenue for the period. The sugar tax, introduced in January 2024 at US$0.02 per gram of sugar content and later reduced under industry pressure, cost Delta US$31.2 million in the February to December 2024 period alone. At the time it was introduced at its original rate, analysts estimat- ed Delta's total tax obligations for the financial year ending March 2025 could reach US$255 million. For a company generating under US$1 billion in revenue, a combined tax, levy, and dispute provisioning burden of that magnitude compresses net margin to a figure that makes new capital investment difficult to justify.Zimplats, listed on the Australian Stock Exchange and operating as Impala Platinum's Zimbabwean arm, described its fiscal environ- ment as \"volatile, highly complex and subject to interpretation\" in its preliminary final report for the year ended June 2024. ZIMRA assessed Zimplats for royalty shortfalls of ZWL 2.03 billion, approximately US$7.1 million, on matte and concentrate exported between June 2018 and December 2021, arguing that royalties should have been calculated on the gross market value of the final refined mineral. The High Court ruled in January 2026 that no royalty rate had existed for mineral-bearing products in the Finance Act during the disputed period, and that a 2025 retrospective amendment to the Finance Act could not create a liability where none existed at the time. Zimplats won the case, but the legal and management cost of a multi-year dispute over a retrospectively applied tax on products for which the law contained no charging provision is a concrete example of the regulatory risk premium Zimbabwe's fiscal framework imposes on mining investors.Innscor Africa paid US$9.26 million under the pay now, argue later principle out of total assessed amounts disclosed in its financial results for the year ended June 2024. Innscor described \"legislative gaps giving rise to differences in interpretations\" as the root cause of its disputes, covering periods 2019 to 2021, where ZIMRA assessed that amounts settled in Zimba- bwe dollars should have been paid in foreign currency with no credit given for the equivalent local currency payments already made.National Foods contested US$4.49 million in additional assessments covering income taxes, penalties, and interest for 2019 to 2021, paying US$3.38 million under compulsion while appealing. The company carried these pay- ments as prepayments on its balance sheet and not as tax expense, which is the mechanically correct accounting treatment for amounts under dispute, but one that reduces working capital availability for operations and procurement.OK Zimbabwe received a civil penalty order of US$2.05 million under Section 81B of the Value Added Tax Act, calculated on 914 tills over a 90-day period from January 2024, in connection with the Fiscalised Device Management System rollout. OK Zimbabwe contests both the legality of the penalty and the accuracy of the till count used in ZIMRA's calculation, arguing that tech- nical setbacks in system integration were com- municated to the authority in advance. The pen- alty was disclosed in results for the year ended March 2025, a period in which the retailer was already navigating compressed consumer spending and working capital pressure.Dairibord Zimbabwe absorbed US$2.26 million in sugar tax costs in 2024, which weighed directly on profitability in a business where mar- gins are structurally thin across the dairy and beverages value chain. It also reported a tax dispute and penalty with ZIMRA.The True Cost - Beyond the Dispute FigureThe disclosed dispute amounts understate the total cost of Zimbabwe's tax risk environment in three ways.Legal and professional fees consume manage- ment bandwidth and cash. Each of the compa- nies listed above has engaged tax practitioners and legal counsel to navigate objection processes, appeals, and court proceedings across multiple tax years simultaneously. These costs are not separately disclosed in financial statements but sit inside administrative and overhead lines. For a company like Delta man- aging a US$97 million dispute across multiple tax years and currency denominations, the legal cost over the dispute lifecycle is material.The pay now, argue later principle removes liquidity from operations before disputes are resolved. ZIMRA's legal authority to collect assessed amounts while appeals proceed means that companies are effectively extending an interest-free loan to the fiscus on amounts that courts may ultimately find were never owed. Delta has paid US$9.2 million on the disputed assessment. Innscor paid US$9.26 million. National Foods paid US$3.38 million. These cash outflows reduce the capital avail- able for working capital, procurement, and expansion investment in the period of dispute, with repayment mechanisms that may refund devalued local currency amounts even where the original dispute is resolved in the company's favour.The margin compression from sectoral levies compounds the dispute exposure. Delta's effec- tive tax rate on revenue reached 39% in 2025 when all taxes, levies, and the sugar tax are aggregated. At a net margin of approximately 7% on revenue in recent years before the current tax cycle, a 39% revenue-to-tax ratio means the company retains roughly US$57 million of an US$810 million revenue base after tax. That retention level does not support the capital expenditure required to maintain com- petitive infrastructure, expand capacity, or fund the export development that Zimbabwe's foreign currency generation requires.For investors evaluating new project commit- ments in Zimbabwe, the disclosed dispute register functions as a risk disclosure docu- ment. A prospective investor reading Delta, Zim- plats, Innscor, OK Zimbabwe, and National Foods disclosures simultaneously sees a pattern of retrospective currency apportionment disputes, royalty assessments on legally ambig- uous product categories, civil penalties on tech- nical compliance failures, and a fiscal frame- work that its largest practitioners describe as volatile and open to conflicting interpretation. The pattern, across five major listed companies simultaneously, consolidates into a country risk premium that raises the required return for new investment and compresses the pipeline of proj- ects that clear the investment threshold.Why Government Keeps PressingGovernment's revenue imperative is legitimate and quantifiable. Zimbabwe's tax-to-GDP ratio sits at approximately 17%, against an African average of 22.5% and developed economy averages above 30%. The ZimStat Economic Census confirms that informalisation has deep- ened to 76.1% of establishments, with informal sector tax collection at less than 0.5% of that sector's economic contribution. The formal sector, led by listed companies, carries the fiscal weight of an economy three to four times its registered size.ZIMRA exceeded its revenue collection targets repeatedly through 2022 to 2025, which creates an institutional incentive to continue the enforcement approach that delivered those results. The pay now, argue later principle, aggressive retrospective assessment of curren- cy apportionment for the 2019 to 2022 transition period, and the use of public notices to establish tax bases before legislation is enacted all reflect a revenue authority under pressure to maximise collections from the sources it can access. The formal sector is that source. The informal sector, which accounts for 76% of establishments and close to 80% of employment, contributes 0.5% of its economic value to the revenue base.Five Disciplines Companies Can Deploy NowZimbabwe's listed companies can build a tax risk management architecture that reduces dispute exposure, improves predictability, and preserves the margin headroom that domestic demand growth requires to be commercially captured.The first discipline is contemporaneous docu- mentation. Every transaction involving currency conversion, intercompany pricing, or remunera- tion structure requires documentation created at the time of the transaction, filed in the manner ZIMRA would require if it audited that period three years later. ZIMRA holds that 80% of fiscal revenue loss arises from transfer pricing, which means transfer pricing documentation is the highest-risk exposure category for any compa- ny with related-party transactions. The Finance Act now mandates this documentation. Compa- nies that treat it as a compliance checkbox and not as a strategic risk mitigation instrument expose themselves to the full range of Section 98 commissioner override powers.The second discipline is proactive dispute engagement before assessment. ZIMRA's voluntary disclosure programme, open until June 30, 2026, offers companies the opportuni- ty to regularise their tax affairs for the 2025 assessment year without the full penalty and interest exposure that post-assessment disputes attract. Companies that use this window to resolve legacy ZiG-denominated currency apportionment exposures before ZIMRA raises assessments reduce their dispute stock and their pay now, argue later cash outflows simultaneously.The third discipline is tax provisioning as a stra- tegic variable. Companies that carry uncertain tax positions without provisions, relying solely on legal opinion that no liability exists, expose their financial statements to restatement risk and their boards to governance exposure. The correct accounting treatment, recognised by
The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 9*From Page 8 National Foods in its prepayment approach, is to carry disputed amounts as balance sheet provisions or prepayments with clear disclo- sure. This approach does not concede the legal position but manages the financial statement risk of a sudden crystallisation event.The fourth discipline is sector coordination. Delta, Innscor, Dairibord, and National Foods are all subject to the sugar tax and share the same currency apportionment dispute profile from the 2019 to 2022 transition period. The Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries and the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce provide platforms for coordinated industry engagement with Treasury and ZIMRA on legis- lative gaps that affect multiple companies identi- cally. Innscor's successful advocacy for extend- ing the sugar tax to imported beverages demon- strates that coordinated sector engagement produces policy outcomes that individual com- pany engagement does not. The same model applies to the currency apportionment dispute category, where a sector-wide negotiated reso- lution would benefit the fiscus, reduce ZIMRA's litigation load, and restore the operational predictability that investment decisions require.The fifth discipline is legal architecture review. The Zimplats High Court ruling of January 2026 and the ZIMASCO Supreme Court precedent establish that no tax obligation arises without a clear statutory charging provision, and that retrospective legislative amendments cannot create liabilities that did not exist at the time of the transaction. Companies facing assess- ments on products, transactions, or periods where the applicable rate or charging provision is legally ambiguous now have direct precedent to challenge those assessments. Engaging tax practitioners familiar with the Zimplats and ZIMASCO precedents at the objection stage, before assessment escalation, is the lower-cost path to dispute resolution.How Other Economies Resolved Compa- rable PressuresZimbabwe's dispute profile has direct parallels in economies that navigated rapid currency transitions combined with aggressive retroac- tive tax enforcement. Three cases carry appli- cable lessons.Ghana's currency transition disputes in the early 2010s, following the introduction of the Ghana Cedi and subsequent inflationary peri- ods, produced a comparable pattern of retro- spective VAT and corporate income tax assess- ments on companies that had transacted in mul- tiple currency denominations. The Ghana Reve- nue Authority and the business sector reached a structured resolution through a Tax Amnesty Programme in 2012 and 2017, which allowed companies to regularise prior-period exposures at a discounted rate without the full penalty and interest load. The programmes widened the tax base by bringing informal operators into the formal net simultaneously, distributing the reve- nue impact across a larger number of contribu- tors.Rwanda's tax reform programme, executed between 2008 and 2018, produced a 10-per- centage-point increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio without increasing the statutory rate on formal sector companies. The mechanism was digital formalisation of the informal sector through Rwanda Revenue Authority's electronic billing system and SME registration programme, which converted informal traders into registered contributors. Zimbabwe's own Fiscalised Device Management System, which generated the OK Zimbabwe penalty dispute, is an ana- logue of this approach. The lesson Rwanda's experience delivers is that the formalisation technology works when it is implemented with a grace period, technical support, and a clear communication framework, ahead of immediate civil penalty enforcement on the first non-com- pliant quarter.South Africa's Tax Administration Act, enacted in 2011, created a Dispute Resolution function that separates the tax assessment process from the collection enforcement process, allowing companies to challenge assessments without the full pay now, argue later liquidity extraction that Zimbabwe's current framework imposes. The South African approach reduced litigation volume at the Tax Court by channelling disputes into a structured administrative objection process with defined timelines and outcomes. Zimbabwe's tax courts handle volumes that a structured administrative dispute resolution function could absorb more efficiently, reducing costs for both companies and the revenue authority.The Strategic ImperativeZimbabwe's domestic demand is growing. Del- ta's revenue rose to US$1.1 billion in 2026, up from US$800 million the prior year. Dairibord recorded a 66% rise in profit before tax to US$5.34 million for the year ended December 2025. The consumer economy is recovering and formal sector companies have the scale to capture that recovery. The risk is that a tax envi- ronment which consumes 39% of revenue at Delta and generates nine-figure dispute regis- ters across the listed sector simultaneously will compress the capital available for the capacity expansion that demand growth requires, and will deter the greenfield investment from outside Zimbabwe that would accelerate the cycle.Zimbabwe's government collects more from formal companies than those companies can sustain alongside the investment obligations that growth requires. The informal sector gener- ates 76% of economic establishments and con- tributes less than 0.5% of its value to the reve- nue base. The arithmetic of fiscal sustainability runs through informal sector formalisation, not through deeper extraction from the formal com- panies that are already at the margin of what their profit structures can absorb. ZIMRA's 2025 voluntary disclosure programme and the 2025 budget's mandatory income tax registration for informal traders in fabric, clothing, automotive, hardware, and groceries sectors are both steps in the right direction. The pace and the sequencing of those steps, however, need to move faster than the rate at which dispute-driv- en margin compression reduces the investable capacity of the companies that currently carry the revenue base.Bank Anytime, Not Just Banking HoursDeposit your USD cash anytime at any Ecobank ATM—secure, convenient, and available 24/7.SCAN FOR LOCATIONS
The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 10*To Page 11he Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency has put the Food Poverty Line for one person in May 2026 at ZWG 916.59 per month, which translates to USD 36.66 per month or USD 1.22 per day using the formal market rate of ZWG 25 per dollar. However, using the parallel market rate of approximately ZWG 30 per dollar, the same figure declines further to USD 30.55 per month or USD 1.02 per day. As for the Total Consumption Poverty Line, Zim- Stat has placed it at ZWG 1,337.37 per person per month, which converts to USD 53.49 per month or USD 1.78 per day at the formal rate of 25, and USD 44.58 per month or USD 1.49 per day at the parallel rate of 30. The range between the formal rate conversion and the parallel rate conversion, USD 1.78 versus USD 1.49 per day for total consumption, is not a minor rounding difference. It is a 16.2% welfare gap that reflects the monetary duality that Zimbabwe's population navigates daily, where the exchange rate at which your income or savings are valued determines your effective poverty status regardless of what the nominal ZWG figure says.The dual-rate poverty line reality is the most honest framing of Zimbabwe's May 2026 pover- ty data, because it acknowledges that a citizen whose ZWG income is converted to purchasing power at the parallel rate of 30 is living on USD 1.49 per day rather than USD 1.78, a difference that at the poverty line level determines whether a household can meet its minimum non-food consumption requirements or must cut them further. The ZiG's formal rate stability, which ZimStat's poverty line calculation uses as its basis, reflects the monetary policy achievement of maintaining the official exchange rate at approx- imately ZWG 25 to the dollar through the RBZ's tight liquidity management and reserve back- ing of USD 1.4 billion. The paral- lel rate of approximately 30 reflects the market's indepen- dent assessment of ZWG's purchasing power when the formal exchange control con- straints are absent. For the majority of Zimbabwe's population, which transacts partly or entirely outside the formal banking system, the parallel rate is the operationally relevant conversion, and the poverty line at that rate is USD 1.49 per day, a number that is even further below every interna- tional benchmark than the formal rate equivalent.The World Bank maintains pov- erty benchmarks calibrated to national income classifications. The low-income country poverty line is USD 3.00 per day. The lower-middle-in- come country threshold is USD 4.20 per day. The upper-middle-income threshold, which is Zimbabwe's Vision 2030 target classification, is USD 8.30 per day. At the formal rate conversion of USD 1.78 per day, Zimbabwe's TCPL is 40.7% below the low-income country bench- mark of USD 3.00. At the parallel rate conver- sion of USD 1.49 per day, the TCPL is 50.3% below that same benchmark. Zimbabwe's official minimum consumption threshold, on the most favourable conversion available, does not reach half of what the World Bank considers the poverty floor for the world's poorest country classification. On the parallel rate conversion, it reaches approximately one fifth of the upper-middle-income benchmark that Vision 2030 targets.The Food Poverty Line tells the story with even greater starkness. At USD 1.22 per day on the formal rate, a person living at the FPL is spend- ing their entire income to access the minimum 2,100 calories per day that ZimStat defines as the energy threshold for survival. There is noth- ing left, no shelter budget, no transport, no clothing, no healthcare, and no education. The gap between the FPL of USD 1.22 and the TCPL of USD 1.78 per day at the formal rate is USD 0.56 per person per day, which is the entirety of the non-food consumption budget available to an individual classified as extremely poor. At the parallel rate, that non-food budget compresses further to USD 0.47 per day. Those are the numbers that explain why formal sector businesses across Zimbabwe's consumer economy are reporting the demand constraints they are documenting in their Q1 2026 results. A consumer operating on a total consumption budget of USD 1.49 to USD 1.78 per day is not a consumer whose purchasing behaviour supports the formal retail, packaged goods, finan- cial services, and property sectors that Zimba- bwe's listed companies serve.Meanwhile, the ZimStat release's provincial inflation data reveals that the national TCPL of ZWG 1,337.37 is more binding in some provinc- es than others, and that the national average conceals significant regional welfare variation. ZWG year-on-year inflation ranged from 0.7% in Manicaland to 8.9% in Matabeleland South in May 2026, a spread of 8.2 percentage points. Harare recorded 5.7%, Mashonaland East 6.5%, and Midlands 5.3%. The highest-inflation provinces are precisely those where the formal poverty line, calculated on national average prices, understates the actual cost of meeting the minimum consumption basket. A person in Matabeleland South whose ZWG income equals the national TCPL of ZWG 1,337.37 is experiencing 8.9% annual price inflation against a national basket priced at lower average rates. Their effective consump- tion poverty line is higher than the published figure, and their USD equivalent is lower than even the parallel rate conversion implies because the prices they face are rising faster than the national average that determines the ZWG nominal figure.The USD provincial inflation data adds a second layer. USD year-on-year inflation in May 2026 ranged from 1.7% in Mashonaland Central and Matabeleland North to 4.6% in Mashonaland East and 4.0% in Matabeleland South. Since 85% of Zimbabwe's economic transactions are USD-denominated, the USD provincial inflation dispersion is the more welfare-relevant mea- sure for the majority of the population. A USD CPI of 4.6% in Mashonaland East against the national USD average of 2.8% means that the USD purchasing power of every income in that province is eroding at nearly double the national rate. The consumer in Mashona- land East facing 4.6% USD annual inflation while living near the TCPL is experiencing a real consumption decline that the stable nominal ZWG figure does not capture.The April 2026 Producer Price Index data, the most recent avail- able in the ZimStat release, provides the forward signal for where the poverty lines are likely to move in subsequent months. The USD PPI for Agriculture was 120.41 in April 2026, with a monthly rate of change of 1.1%, above the 0.5% monthly change in the non-agricultural USD PPI of 112.78. Agricultural producer prices are rising faster than non-agricultural producer prices, and both are rising. Since the Food Poverty Line is anchored to the retail price of the food basket whose Gap Between Stability & ProsperityZim’s Poverty Remains Deep& AnalysisT
The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 11*To Page 12*From Page 10 upstream cost is the agricultural PPI, sus- tained above-average agricultural producer price inflation feeds directly into the FPL. ZimStat confirms that increases in Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages were the primary driver of the May 2026 CPI movement in all three measures, ZWG, USD, and blended. The agricultural PPI data suggests that food price pressure is being transmitted from the produc- tion side, driven substantially by the March 2026 fuel price shock whose second-round effects through logistics, distribution, and input costs are still working through agricultural supply chains in April and May.The Civil Engineering Material Price Index of 210.55 in ZWG terms and 103.21 in USD terms, with a 0.3% monthly change following March's 7.1% spike, affects the non-food component of the TCPL through housing maintenance costs. The ZWG CEMPI's March spike of 7.1% reflect- ed the direct transmission of the fuel price increase into construction material logistics costs, and the April moderation to 0.3% con- firms the second-round effect is partially com- plete rather than continuing to accelerate. For households living near the TCPL, the non-food budget of USD 0.56 per day at formal rates absorbs the housing cost implication of that CEMPI movement, reducing the remaining budget for every other non-food category proportionately.Zimbabwe's May 2026 blended inflation of 3.2% and ZWG annual inflation of 4.4% represent a genuine macroeconomic stabilisation achieve- ment. A country that recorded 92.1% ZWG annual inflation in May 2025 and is recording 4.4% in May 2026 has executed one of the most rapid disinflation cycles in its monetary history. The poverty lines' ZWG values, stable in nomi- nal terms at ZWG 916.59 and ZWG 1,337.37, are significantly lower in real purchasing power terms than they would have been under the previous monetary regime's inflation trajectory. That stabilisation benefit is real and reaches the households living at those poverty lines in the form of predictable food and non-food costs that allow minimal but genuine consumption plan- ning.What the poverty lines also reveal, at any exchange rate applied to convert them, is that the structural welfare gap between Zimbabwe's current population consumption capacity and its Vision 2030 upper-middle-income target is not a gap that monetary stability alone can close.At USD 1.78 per day on the formal rate or USD 1.49 per day on the parallel rate, reaching the USD 8.30 per day threshold requires a four to five times increase in real household consump- tion capacity. That increase requires employ- ment creation at scale, real wage growth above inflation, industrial expansion that generates productivity gains, and the broad-based eco- nomic transformation that converts Zimbabwe's gold supercycle revenues, its record maize harvest, its lithium export growth, and its manu- facturing value added improvement into house- hold income that reaches the population living at ZWG 1,337.37 per month. The ZWG has been stabilised. The poverty line remains at USD 1.49 to USD 1.78 per day. The distance between stabilisation and transforma- tion is the most important number in the May 2026 ZimStat release.imbabwe harvested 94,103 metric tonnes of soyabean in the 2025/26 season, with Mashonaland Central Prov- ince recording the highest provincial figure of 44,686 metric tonnes, equivalent to 47.5% of national output from a single province according to the 16th latest post cabinet briefing’s Second Round of Crops, Livestock and Fisheries Assessment Report. The number sits beneath the maize harvest headline of 2,341,857 metric tonnes that has dominated post-cabinet agricul- tural coverage. The soyabean harvest of 94,103 metric tonnes is the opening chapter of a food systems trans- formation story that Zimbabwe has been trying and failing to write for three decades, and Mash- onaland Central's dominance within it is both a validation of the province's agricultural potential and a warning that the geographic concentra- tion of soyabean production creates structural vulnerabilities that must be actively managed as the sector scales.The analytical failure of most agricultural cover- age of soyabean in Zimbabwe is the treatment of soyabean as a single commodity rather than as the multi-product raw material that it is. A metric tonne of soyabean in Zimbabwe does not go to one destination. It goes to several simulta- neously through a processing chain that sepa- rates the bean into its constituent outputs: soya oil, which enters the cooking oil market and sub- stitutes for imported vegetable oil; soya cake, which enters the livestock feed chain as the primary protein supplement for poultry, pig, and dairy cattle production; soya flour, which enters the human food market as a protein-fortified supplement for mahewu, blended flours, and baby food formulations; and whole beans, which enter the export market as raw agricultural com- modity when domestic processing capacity is insufficient to absorb the full harvest.Each of those market channels has a different value, a different import substitution potential, and a different strategic significance for Zimba- bwe's food security and foreign exchange archi- tecture. Soya oil produced domestically substi- tutes for imported vegetable oil, which has historically been one of Zimbabwe's most con- sistent agricultural import expenditure catego- ries. Soya cake produced domestically substitutes for imported protein meal that the poultry sector, which has been one of Zimbabwe's fast- est-growing protein categories through the Delta, Irvine's, and Suncrest platforms, requires to sustain its production economics. The value of the 94,103-tonne harvest is therefore the aggregate import substitution value across all those downstream channels, which at current global prices for vegetable oil and protein meal is substantially larger than the raw commodity value alone.Mashonaland Central's 44,686 metric tonnes, representing 47.5% of national soyabean production, is the product of a convergence of factors that the province's agricultural structure has built over time. The province's deep red and clay soils in the Bindura, Shamva, and Mazowe corridors provide the physical structure and water retention characteristics that soyabean requires for root nodule development and effec- tive nitrogen fixation. The provincial commercial farming sector, which survived the land reform programme in greater functional capacity than comparable provinces, maintains the mechani- sation, storage, and input supply infrastructure that smallholder soyabean expansion can piggyback on. The contract farming relationships between seed companies, input suppliers, and small- holder producers in Mashonaland Central have been more consistently maintained than in prov- inces where the commercial farming base was more thoroughly disrupted, providing the institu- tional framework through which technology transfer, certified seed, and inoculant access reach the smallholder farmer.The concentration creates a structural vulnera- bility that the 94,103-tonne total harvest number obscures entirely. When nearly half of Zimba- bwe's soyabean production comes from a single province, the national harvest is disproportion- ately sensitive to localised weather events, pest and disease outbreaks, and infrastructure failures within that province. A mid-season dry spell that specifically affects the Bindura to Mazowe rainfall corridor, as the specific topog- raphy of Mashonaland Central can produce even in years of otherwise adequate national rainfall, reduces Zimbabwe's national soyabean output by a larger percentage than a comparaZOiling the EconomySoyabeans Build a New Growth Story
The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 12*From Page 11 -ble dry spell anywhere else in the country would. The El Niño probability of 88% to 94% for the 2026/27 season, combined with the provincial concentration of soyabean production, creates a compound risk that the aggregate production forecast for the coming season should explicitly model rather than assume away.Diversifying soyabean production into Masho- naland East, Mashonaland West, and the Mid- lands, which have compatible soil types in spe- cific district-level geographies, is therefore a climate risk management strategy. A soyabean production base distributed across three or four provinces produces a more stable aggregate output across variable rainfall seasons than one concentrated in a single province, even if the total planted area is identical. The provincial extension services, input supply networks, and contract farming frameworks in those provinces require investment and time to develop, but the investment is justified by the risk reduction it delivers rather than solely by the incremental volume it produces.Zimbabwe's annual cooking oil import bill has historically ranged between USD 80 million and USD 150 million, depending on the volume imported, the prevailing global vegetable oil price, and the extent to which domestic crushing capacity has been operational in any given year. The global vegetable oil market, driven by palm oil, sunflower oil, and soya oil as the three domi- nant global products, has been elevated through the period of the Iran war supply disrup- tions and the Black Sea conflict's continued suppression of Ukrainian sunflower oil exports. At current global soya oil prices of approximate- ly USD 900 per metric tonne and an oil extraction rate of approximately 18% by weight from whole soyabean, the 94,103-tonne harvest has the theoretical capacity to yield approxi- mately 16,938 metric tonnes of soya oil, with a market value of approximately USD 15.2 million. That represents a meaningful fraction of Zimbabwe's annual cooking oil import bill, produced domestically rather than purchased with foreign exchange.The soya cake calculation adds a larger dimen- sion. The protein meal yield from soyabean processing is approximately 78% by weight, meaning the 94,103-tonne harvest can yield approximately 73,400 metric tonnes of high-pro- tein soya cake. At global protein meal prices of approximately USD 380 per metric tonne, the soya cake output has a market value of approxi- mately USD 27.9 million. For Zimbabwe's poultry sector, which requires high-quality protein meal to maintain feed con- version ratios that make commercial broiler and layer production economically viable, domesti- cally produced soya cake at a competitive landed cost is the difference between a profit- able poultry enterprise and one that struggles to sustain margins against imported frozen chick- en. The combined import substitution value of the soya oil and soya cake from the 2025/26 harvest is therefore approximately USD 43 million, a figure that dwarfs the raw commodity export value of the harvest and that represents a direct foreign exchange saving for Zimba- bwe's economy.The constraint on realising that import substitu- tion value is crushing and processing capacity. Zimbabwe's oilseed crushing sector has operat- ed at a fraction of its installed capacity in multi- ple seasons because the raw material supply was insufficient to justify running the plants at commercial throughput. With a 94,103-tonne harvest, the constraint begins to reverse: the raw material is arriving in sufficient volume that crusher operators can justify investment in plant operation, maintenance, and efficiency improvement. The strategic policy implication is that the gov- ernment should treat the growth of the soy- abean sector and the expansion of domestic crushing capacity as a single integrated invest- ment priority rather than as two separate agri- cultural and industrial policy questions, because neither achieves its full economic impact with- out the other.The AfDB's Africa Industrialisation Index 2025 identifies Zimbabwe's manufacturing sector as growing rapidly but remaining concentrated at 92.2% basic metals in manufactured exports, with food products, including oilseed processing, at less than 2% of manufactured exports. The development of a soy- abean processing sector that exports soya oil, protein meal, and value-added soya food products would be among the most direct available instru- ments for changing that ratio, because soyabean process- ing is a manufacturing activity with genuine value-added characteristics, significant employment intensity relative to metals processing, and a raw material base that Zimba- bwe is now demonstrating it can produce at meaningful scale.The Road from 94,103 Tonnes to Self-SufficiencyZimbabwe's total oilseed requirement, covering cooking oil for human consumption, protein meal for the formal poultry and dairy sectors, and industrial food manufacturing applications, implies an annual soyabean equivalent requirement of approximately 250,000 to 300,000 metric tonnes when all downstream uses are properly accounted for. The 2025/26 harvest of 94,103 metric tonnes represents approximately 35% to 38% of that total requirement, which is a mean- ingful foundation but not yet a self-sufficient one. Reaching self-sufficiency in oilseed production, eliminating the cooking oil import bill, and building an export-capable soya cake surplus requires a sustained expansion of soy- abean planted area, a seed variety improve- ment programme focused on high-yield and high-oil-content varieties adapted to Zimba- bwe's specific soil types and growing condi- tions, and the ginning and crushing infrastruc- ture investment that converts farm-gate produc- tion into consumer-ready products at competi- tive cost.The Mashonaland Central model, where 44,686 metric tonnes were produced from an agricultur- al structure that combines commercial farming infrastructure with smallholder contract farming, is the template that can be replicated in compat- ible provinces. The Integrated Provincial Spe- cial Economic Zones framework approved by Cabinet in May 2026 designates Mashonaland Central for mining beneficiation and agro-pro- cessing, which includes oilseed processing as a directly eligible activity. The designation creates the regulatory contain- er. What fills it with capital is the combination of credible raw material supply, consistent pricing policy that gives processors and farmers alike the planning certainty to make multi-year invest- ment decisions, and the access to concessional financing through NDB membership and domestic development finance institutions that reduces the cost of processing plant investment to commercially viable levels.Soyabean is not maize. It does not attract the same policy attention, the same public interest, or the same celebration when records are set. But it is, in the food systems architecture of a country that aims for upper-middle-income status by 2030, the crop that most directly deter- mines whether Zimbabwe can stop paying hun- dreds of millions of dollars in annual vegetable oil imports, whether its poultry sector can sus- tain the protein economics that make chicken affordable to urban consumers, and whether its agricultural sector can graduate from commodi- ty export dependence to value-added food man- ufacturing at scale. The 2025/26 harvest of 94,103 metric tonnes is the most encouraging soyabean season in recent memory. It deserves to be treated as the strategic foundation it is, not as a footnote beneath the maize headline it has been.
The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 13overnment's decision to extend the winter wheat planting deadline while simultaneously imposing levies on selected grain imports reflects a broader shift in agricultural policy. The two measures, announced within days of each other, are not isolated interventions. Together, they represent an attempt to protect domestic grain production, preserve farmer incentives and consolidate the gains Zimbabwe has achieved in its drive towards grain self-sufficiency.The extension of the wheat planting window from May 31 to June 15 follows delays in harvesting summer crops caused by unusually wet conditions. According to the Agricultural and Rural Development Advisory Services (ARDAS), approximately 91 000 hectares had been planted by May 31 against the national target of 125 000 hectares, translating to 73 percent completion. While the figure initially appears to suggest the country is behind sched- ule, a closer examination reveals that the situa- tion is more nuanced than a simple planting delay.The primary constraint is not a shortage of seed, fertiliser or financing. Instead, the chal- lenge stems from the success of the preceding summer season. Large volumes of maize, soy- abeans and traditional grains remain in fields awaiting harvesting, limiting the availability of land for winter wheat planting. In effect, strong summer production has delayed the transition into winter production.This distinction is important because it changes how the market should interpret the extension. Delays caused by poor agricultural performance often signal production risks and potential food security concerns. Delays caused by a large harvest point to logistical and operational bottle- necks rather than a collapse in production capacity. Government's decision to extend planting deadlines therefore appears designed to accommodate seasonal realities while preserving the objective of achieving the nation- al wheat target.The target itself remains ambitious. Authorities are aiming to plant 125 000 hectares and produce approximately 662 500 tonnes of wheat during the 2026 winter season. Achieving that output would comfortably satisfy domestic requirements and reinforce Zimbabwe's posi- tion as one of the region's most significant wheat success stories.The country's wheat transformation over the past three years has been remarkable. In 2024, farmers produced a record 518 502 tonnes from 106 238 hectares. That record was broken again in 2025 when output reached approxi- mately 639 942 tonnes from 122 566 hectares. Few agricultural sub-sectors have demonstrat- ed a comparable improvement in productivity, area expansion and overall output within such a short period.These gains have significantly altered Zimba- bwe's grain import requirements. For decades, wheat represented one of the country's major food import categories, exposing the economy to exchange rate pressures and international commodity price volatility. Rising domestic production has reduced this vulnerability while strengthening national food security. This prog- ress provides important context for Treasury's decision to introduce levies on selected grain imports.The new levies are designed to address a pric- ing imbalance between imported grain and locally produced grain. According to Treasury, the differential between import parity and production parity stands at approximately US$40 per tonne for maize and US$50 per tonne for soyabeans. Without corrective mea- sures, cheaper imports can enter the market and compete directly with locally produced grain, effectively undermining the incentives that encourage domestic production.From a policy perspective, this issue extends beyond simple trade protection. Agriculture operates on expectations. Farmers make production decisions months before harvests are marketed. Those decisions are influenced by expected prices, profitability and confidence in future market conditions. If producers believe imported grain will consistently depress local prices, investment in production can decline over time. Reduced planting ultimately trans- lates into lower output and increased depen- dence on imports.Treasury's argument is therefore centred on maintaining parity between imported and locally produced grain. The objective is not necessarily to eliminate imports but to ensure that imported products do not enjoy an artificial advantage over domestic production.The structure of the levy regime reflects this objective. Maize imports will attract a levy of US$40 per tonne. Soyabeans will attract US$20 per tonne, while soya meal imports will be charged US$35 per tonne. Soft wheat imports will attract a levy of US$89.25 per tonne. Hard wheat will only attract the levy once an importer exceeds the prescribed blending ratio of 70 percent local soft wheat and 30 percent import- ed hard wheat.The wheat provision deserves particular atten- tion. Government has deliberately avoided disrupting the existing wheat blending model used by millers. Local production predominantly consists of soft wheat, while certain industrial applications require hard wheat varieties. The 70:30 blending ratio allows processors to access imported hard wheat where necessary while preserving demand for local production. The levy only applies when imports exceed this threshold, creating a mechanism that protects local farmers without compromising industrial requirements.Zimbabwe has invested considerable public resources in rebuilding domestic grain produc- tion. Irrigation rehabilitation, input support programmes, contract farming arrangements and financing mechanisms have all contributed to recent production gains. Allowing imported grain to undercut local production would weaken the returns generated by those invest- ments.The decision to ring-fence levy proceeds adds another layer to the policy framework. Treasury has indicated that funds collected will be direct- ed towards Grain Marketing Board farmer pay- ments and the development of smallholder irrigation infrastructure. This transforms the levy from a purely protective measure into a financ- ing instrument designed to support future agri- cultural productivity.Climate variability remains one of the biggest threats facing Zimbabwean agriculture. Recent production gains have been supported by expanding irrigation capacity, especially in wheat production where irrigation provides greater control over growing conditions. Direct- ing levy revenues towards irrigation develop- ment effectively links current import activity to future production capacity.This creates a potentially self-reinforcing cycle. Import levies support farmer prices. Improved farmer incentives encourage production. Levy proceeds finance irrigation expansion. Expand- ed irrigation improves resilience and future output. In theory, the framework strengthens both current and future agricultural perfor- mance.Implementation, however, will determine wheth- er these objectives are achieved. Several irriga- tion projects across the country continue to face operational challenges. Waterlogging, delayed electrification and inadequate water supplies have slowed progress in some areas. The effec- tiveness of the levy system will therefore depend not only on revenue collection but also on the efficient deployment of resources towards productive infrastructure.Transparency will be equally important. Trea- sury has mandated monthly reporting on levy collections, import volumes and fund utilisation. This requirement reflects recognition that stake- holders will closely monitor whether revenues are reaching their intended destinations and generating measurable outcomes.The combined effect of the wheat planting extension and the grain levy regime reveals an increasingly coherent agricultural policy direc- tion. Government appears focused on protect- ing production gains rather than merely pursu- ing production targets. The emphasis is shifting towards strengthening incentives throughout the agricultural value chain, from planting deci- sions and irrigation investment to marketing arrangements and price support mechanisms.The underlying objective is straightforward. Zimbabwe's recent grain production gains are valuable, but they remain fragile. Sustaining self-sufficiency requires more than favourable weather conditions and strong harvests. It requires a policy environment that supports farmer profitability, encourages investment and protects domestic production from avoidable market distortions.The extension of the wheat planting deadline recognises the operational realities facing farm- ers during a delayed harvesting season. The grain levy framework seeks to preserve the eco- nomic incentives that underpin domestic production. Viewed together, the measures signal a government increasingly focused on consolidating agricultural gains rather than simply celebrating them.The real test will emerge over the next several seasons. If wheat production continues expand- ing, irrigation coverage improves and domestic grain output remains competitive, these mea- sures may be remembered as important steps in securing Zimbabwe's long-term food security objectives. If implementation falters, the country risks seeing recent gains eroded by the very market pressures the policies are designed to address.For now, the message from policymakers is clear. Zimbabwe is no longer concentrating solely on producing more grain. The focus is increasingly shifting towards protecting the con- ditions that make sustained production growth possible.Wheat Targets Face DelaysGovernment Protects Grain MarketsG
The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 14*To Page 16he Absa Manufacturing PMI closed May 2026 at 50.8, holding above the neutral threshold for a second consecutive month while the business activity sub-index fell to 43.5, the new sales orders index fell to 44.6, and input cost pressures held near historic highs. South Africa's industrial fragility transmits directly into the growth arithmetic of Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique, and Botswana through three compounding channels: import cost pass-through, labour market and remittance compression, and investment sentiment deteri- oration.South Africa's manufacturing sector spent six consecutive months in contraction between October 2025 and March 2026. The December 2025 PMI reading of 40.5 was the weakest since April 2020. April 2026 produced a recov- ery to 52.6, the first reading above 50 since September 2025, driven by demand pulled forward ahead of anticipated further cost increases. May's 50.8 composite reading con- firms that the front-loading effect has faded and underlying conditions have softened. The busi- ness activity index at 43.5 and new sales orders at 44.6 are both firmly in contraction, and Absa's own commentary acknowledges that some respondents warned the recent weakness in demand could persist through coming months.The cost environment driving this outcome is identifiable and persistent. The rand lost approximately 6% against the dollar from late February 2026 as Middle East conflict disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, lifted global oil prices, and triggered broad emerging market risk aversion. The South African Reserve Bank hiked the repo rate by 25 basis points in May 2026, citing rising inflationary pressures, bringing the rate to a level that forecloses the monetary easing manufacturers and consumers had priced into their forward plans. The purchasing price index eased only marginally to 84.8, which is elevated across logistics, services, and raw materials simultaneously. The SARB projects 2026 GDP growth at 1.4%. Independent forecasters includ- ing S&P Global place the figure at 1.1%. The manufacturing sector is operating inside a low-growth, high-cost, tight-money configura- tion that characterises stagnation.Three Channels of Regional Transmis- sionSouth Africa occupies a structural position in Southern Africa that combines the roles of industrial supplier, financial intermediary, and labour market absorber for the subregion. PMI weakness transmits outward through each of those roles, at different speeds and with differ- ent severity depending on the recipient coun- try's import composition, diaspora concentra- tion, and exposure to South African corporate investment decisions.The first channel is import cost pass-through. South Africa is the primary source of manufac- tured goods, food, machinery, and chemicals for Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique, and Botswa- na. When South African producers face higher input costs from energy, logistics, and a weaker rand, those costs move forward into export pric- ing. Each recipient country absorbs the increase with limited capacity to substitute sourcing in the near term. The cost transmission happens across food, industrial inputs, and cap- ital goods simultaneously, which is the configu- ration most damaging to productive sector activ- ity in import-dependent economies.The second channel is labour market and remit- tance compression. South Africa's manufactur- ing employment index improved for a second consecutive month in May 2026 to 48.4, its strongest level since mid-2025, and the figure remains sub-50. A manufacturing sector operat- ing below the employment expansion threshold over a sustained period reduces hiring across construction, logistics, and ancillary services sectors that absorb Southern African migrant labour. Household remittance flows into Zimba- bwe, Mozambique, and Zambia compress in proportion to employment and wage conditions in South Africa, reducing the consumer purchasing power that sustains informal sector activity in those economies.The third channel is investment deferral. South Africa is the primary origination point for formal private equity, development finance institution activity, and corporate regional expansion deci- sions across Southern Africa. JSE-listed retail- ers, financial services groups, and industrial companies navigating compressed domestic margins and weak order books defer cross-bor- der capital commitments. The investment defer- ral effect operates with a lag of two to four quar- ters and tends to outlast the underlying PMI weakness by a full cycle.Zimbabwe: The Deepest ExposureZimbabwe carries the most structurally entrenched import dependence on South Africa in the region. UN COMTRADE data places Zim- babwe's exports to South Africa at $2.05 billion in 2024, against $3.82 billion in South African exports to Zimbabwe in the same year, produc- ing a bilateral deficit of $1.77 billion in South Africa's favour. The composition of South African exports into Zimbabwe defines the eco- nomic risk precisely. Cereals accounted for $664 million, machinery and nuclear reactors for $474 million, mineral fuels and refined petro- leum for $388 million, vehicles for $229 million, plastics for $189 million, and iron and steel for $166 million. These categories cover agricultural food security, industrial production capacity, transport infrastructure, and construction inputs together, which is the full range of productive sector requirements.Higher South African production costs feed into Zimbabwe's import prices across all six catego- ries within one to two trade cycles. The food security dimension carries the most immediate consequence. Zimbabwe's 2025/26 agricultural season faced below-average rainfall in key production zones. A $664 million annual cereal supply line sourced from South Africa, com- bined with rising South African agribusiness production costs at a 6.75% repo rate and elevated fuel prices, produces upward pressure on Zimbabwe's food import bill in the second half of 2026. This arises from Zimbabwe having no comparable regional alternative for cereal imports at the volumes and delivery logistics that the South African corridor provides.The mining sector absorbs the same cost trans- mission through a different input category. Zim- babwe's mining industry spends approximately $2.1 billion annually on imported machinery, equipment, and services, with Afreximbank data placing 80% of intra-African mining-related imports as South African-sourced. Gold, plati- num group metals, chrome, and lithium opera- tions all depend on South African engineering and equipment supply chains. A South African manufacturing sector under margin pressure and passing costs forward raises Zimbabwe's mining production cost base at a point in the commodity cycle when cost discipline deter- mines project viability.Zimbabwe can accelerate three responses to reduce its exposure over the next 12 months. Expanding local cereal production capacity through the ARDA land utilisation programme reduces the annual $664 million cereal import dependency on South African agribusiness. Building domestic manufacturing capacity for plastics, steel products, and basic chemicals targets the $355 million combined import line where local substitution is technically achiev- able at current industrial scale. Deepening the REIT capital mobilisation pipeline, which has demonstrated the capacity to fund property and infrastructure development from domestic sources, reduces Zimbabwe's need for South African corporate investment decisions to drive its built environment pipeline.Zambia: Copper Revenue as a Partial BufferZambia's trade relationship with South Africa deepened in 2025, with South African exports to Zambia rising 13.8% year on year. The compo- sition mirrors the Zimbabwe pattern across manufactured consumer goods, agricultural inputs, and industrial machinery. South Africa's import cost inflation moves into Zambian con- sumer prices, agricultural input pricing, and mining capex costs through the same transmis- sion mechanism operating in Zimbabwe.Copper prices held at elevated levels through 2025 and into 2026, sustaining Zambia's export receipts and government revenue, and these receipts reduce the current account vulnerability to South African cost increases. The copper revenue buffer addresses the foreign exchange dimension of the shock. The production cost dimension operates independently. Zambia's greenfield copper projects currently in execution phases require sustained capital equipment deployment, and the South African engineering and machinery supply chain is the primary source for that equipment. Higher South African manufacturing costs raise the capital expendi- ture requirement for each unit of new copper production capacity, compressing the return profile for projects already in development.South Africa PMI AnalysisRegional Cost ImpactT
The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 15In May 2026, the stock markets in Zimbabwe were defined by a new dawn of equilibrium between two markets that used to be of widely different sizes, with one being an offshore market of the other. The Victoria Falls Stock Exchange (VFEX) overtook the Zimba- bwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) in United States Dollar-equivalent market capitalisation in April, and further expanded in May. VFEX closed the month at US$3.74 billion against ZSE’s US$3.33 billion, a milestone that marks the structural rotation of the country’s strategic equity base from the local-currency board to the dollar board and reshapes the cost-benefit ratio- nale that every issuer must now consider when contemplating a future capital raise.The two markets registered diametrically inverse performance characteristics during the month. VFEX achieved a clean 7.1% All Share Index growth in real terms whilst the ZSE’s apparent 6.6% gain in local currency terms compressed to a marginal 0.4% in dollar terms once the unprecedented 6% one-month depre- ciation of the ZiG is taken into account. May is not therefore a story of broad-based equity market strength but one where real value is being created and where nominal performance is being eroded by currency translation.The ZSE’s turnover of ZWG531.1 million in May was 4% ahead of April’s ZWG510.9 million and the mainstream index gained 6.6% in nominal terms, with market capitalisation climbing 7% to ZWG89.56 billion. These indicators reveal a market that appears to be functioning normally on the surface and yet the composition of activi- ty beneath the surface tells a different story. Shares traded surged 52% and the trade count rose 14%, against a value traded increase of only 4%, which is the unmistakable signature of retail-led activity concentrated in medium and penny counters. The exit of Econet has reset the heavyweight universe and the depth that previously sat at the top of the ranking is now being filled by smaller-ticket trades at the lower end of the price spectrum. The 6.6% nominal return is meaningful in ZWG terms but produces almost no real value once the currency adjust- ment is applied, which means the apparent strength of the price index is overwhelmingly a function of money supply expansion and pass-through inflation rather than fundamental revaluation of the listed universe.While both recorded positive outturns, VFEX registered a rather cleaner indicator of underly- ing equity sentiment because the absence of currency distortion strips out the inflation noise that complicates ZSE’s viability. Aggregate value traded fell 81% to US$16.8 million from April’s US$89.3 million, but this comparison is distorted by the special one-off trades that inflated the April base. Stripping those out, May represents twice the year-on-year monthly average of US$8.1 million and the highest aggregate turnover in fourteen months. VFEX market capitalisation rose 7% to US$3.74 billion, in line with the average growth in share prices, confirming that the price action reflected genuine demand rather than illiquid revaluation of thin counters. The structural significance of VFEX overtaking the ZSE on a USD basis cannot be overstated. The dollar denominated market now hosts the larger share of strategic capital and the institutional pricing mechanism for Zimbabwean equity risk has migrated to its quotations.Foreign participation moved in a directionally constructive direction during the month without yet closing the structural deficit that continues to characterise the ZSE. Inflows ticked up 4% to ZWG97.7 million and outflows eased 6% to ZWG143.9 million on ZSE, with foreign outflows representing 27% of value traded against an 18% contribution from inflows. The net foreign selling position of ZWG46.2 million remains entrenched as an embedded feature of the local bourse and continues to act as a drag on price discovery and a constraint on the recovery of institutional turnover. The mix is normalising at the margin, with outflows down from 30% in April to 27% in May, but the gap between the two met- rics still stands at nine percentage points and reflects a foreign inves- tor community that treats existing ZSE positions predominantly as a release valve rather than a desti- nation. The behavioural pattern is rational given the prevailing arbi- trage. A USD-based foreign inves- tor choosing the ZSE must inter- nalise a considerate currency depreciation as an expected loss before any price performance accrues, and only an equity index gain materially above the currency drag delivers positive real returns. Until the cross-border arbitrage premium narrows further and exchange rate volatility moder- ates, this pattern is unlikely to reverse and net foreign selling will persist as the default mode for non-resident capital.The question, going forward, is whether May 2026 performance represents the inflection point or merely a waypoint in a longer rotation. The variable that matters most into June is the trajectory of the ZiG, given that a sustained depreciation of the local unit would accelerate further heavyweight migration to VFEX and compress the ZSE into a mid-cap and pen- ny-stock venue with diminishing strategic rele- vance to institutional allocators. Currency stabil- isation would conversely restore the ZSE’s rele- vance and reopen the institutional turnover channel that has been progressively closing through the past several reporting cycles. The strategic implication for listed companies is unambiguous and the case for VFEX as the listing venue for any future capital raise has now become difficult to argue against on commercial grounds. For investors, the discipline of the present phase is to read all ZSE performance in USD-equivalent terms and to treat divergent market outcomes as evidence of a durable structural rotation rather than a temporary aber- ration likely to mean-revert. The performance also underlines the urgency of anchoring the currency, since the further the ZWG slides, the deeper the migration of capital to the dollar board, and the more rapidly the ZSE risks losing its position as the central venue for Zimbabwe- an equity capital formation.VFEX Takes the CrownA New Era EmergesI
The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 16*From Page 14 Zambia's urban consumer sector in Lusaka and the Cop- perbelt consumes substantial volumes of South African branded consumer goods and food products. Retail price inflation passing through from South African producers feeds into Zambian house- hold inflation. This arises from Zambia's retail distribution infrastructure being deeply integrated with South African supply chains developed over two decades of SADC trade, making short-term sourcing diversification commercially unviable.Zambia can extract three practical lessons from this configuration. Locking in long-term supply agreements for mining equipment with Chinese and Indian manufac- turers creates a competitive alternative to South African engineering sourcing and hedges against cost inflation cycles. Developing Lusaka-based light manu- facturing capacity for consumer goods that currently arrive from South Africa converts import substitution intent into foreign exchange savings. Strengthening the Bank of Zambia's monetary coordination with SADC counterparts prepares the kwacha for the inflation pass-through that South African cost shocks historically produce within two quarters.Mozambique: Transit Corridor and Sur- plus AbsorberSouth Africa ran a $4.3 billion bilateral trade surplus with Mozambique in 2025, its largest country-specific surplus globally. Mozambique's exports to South Africa fell 20.2% year on year in the same period. Mozambique absorbs South African manufactured and processed goods at scale while its own export capacity into the South African market contracts.The energy infrastructure dimension carries the most consequential near-term risk. Mozam- bique's LNG development projects at Cabo Del- gado represent the country's primary hard currency earning potential at scale. A South African manufacturing sector seeking to contain energy input costs will resist higher pricing on electricity and gas import contracts from any regional source including Mozambique. This compresses the revenue certainty that project financiers require to advance Mozambican LNG infrastructure investment cases, extending the timeline between project commencement and commercial production.Mozambique also functions as a transit corridor for South African imports of goods from Asian and Middle Eastern trading partners through the ports of Maputo and Beira. South African manu- facturing softness reduces the volume of goods moving through those corridors, compressing port revenue, transit logistics income, and the broader economic activity that large-volume trade flows generate in the port-adjacent provinces.Mozambique can learn three commercial disci- plines from its current position. Accelerating the Cabo Delgado LNG production timeline ahead of South African energy contract renegotiations generates independent hard currency earnings that reduce exposure to South African surplus dominance as the defining bilateral economic relationship. Investing in Maputo and Beira port capacity to attract non-South African transit volumes from Zimbabwean and Zambian export corridors broadens the port revenue base. Developing domestic food processing and light manufacturing capacity along the Maputo corri- dor targets the manufactured goods import categories where South African cost inflation has the most direct pass-through effect on Mozambican household budgets.Botswana: The Customs Union Mecha- nismBotswana's exposure operates through a struc- tural fiscal mechanism that most bilateral trade analysis understates. As a member of the Southern African Customs Union alongside South Africa, Botswana receives revenue pool distributions tied to aggregate SACU trade volumes. South African import demand com- pression, produced by elevated borrowing costs and weak domestic consumer spending, reduc- es aggregate SACU trade and therefore reduc- es Botswana's revenue pool receipts in 2026 and 2027. South African exports to Botswana fell 4.7% in 2025, a directional confirmation that bilateral trade momentum is contracting on both sides of the relationship.The diamond trade channel adds a second dimension. Botswana's Debswana production and De Beers marketing decisions are influ- enced by South African financial and operation- al conditions. A weak South African consumer environment reduces domestic diamond retail demand, and rand depreciation affects the rand-denominated portion of diamond revenue at repatria- tion. Botswana's fiscal plan- ning assumptions for 2027 require downward revision on SACU receipts against a South African growth trajecto- ry that the SARB and inde- pendent forecasters place between 1.1% and 1.4%.Botswana can draw three fiscal management lessons from this exposure. Recali- brating SACU receipt projec- tions downward for 2026 and 2027 in the medium-term expenditure framework prevents a mid-year fiscal adjustment that damages investor confidence. Acceler- ating Botswana's own eco- nomic diversification programme into financial services, tourism, and tech- nology reduces the SACU and diamond revenue concentra- tion that makes Gaborone's fiscal position structurally sen- sitive to Johannesburg's PMI cycle. Deepening the Botswana Development Corporation's pipeline for domestic manufactur- ing investment creates import substitution capacity that reduces the bilateral trade surplus South Africa currently runs and retains more economic value inside the Botswana economy.The Forward PositionThe May 2026 PMI expectations index improved to 52.9 from 47.4, and purchasing managers collectively expect conditions to be better by year-end. The employment index rising for two consecutive months to its stron- gest level since mid-2025 adds a marginal posi- tive to the labour market outlook. These data points carry weight in a forward assessment.The SARB's repo rate at 6.75% and its revised end-2026 rate path sitting just below 6.50% confirms that monetary relief will arrive later and more slowly than manufacturers had priced into their plans at the start of the year. Fuel price inflation from the Middle East conflict feeds into logistics costs, chemical inputs, and production energy costs with a persistence that one or two months of PMI recovery cannot neutralise. The rand's 6% depreciation since February 2026 is embedded into import cost structures for the next two to three quarters.Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique, and Botswa- na each hold actionable substitution, hedging, and fiscal recalibration levers that reduce their South African exposure without waiting for the composite PMI to confirm a durable recovery. Zimbabwe's $140 million reduction in South African imports in 2025 as local industry rebounded demonstrates that the substitution vector is open and commercially executable at pace. The four economies that depend on South Africa most directly need a planning framework calibrated to structural pressure, operating across 2026 and into 2027, and the data to build that framework is available now.
The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 17Nampak Profit Fallsampak Zimbabwe Limited, the country's largest packaging firm, has reported a 89% decline in profit after tax to US$306,024 for the six months ended 31 March 2026, down from US$2.877 million recorded in the comparable period last year. The earnings collapse occurred despite reve- nue increasing 10% to US$41.7 million from US$38 million and group volumes rising 25%, driven primarily by a surge in tobacco packaging demand following the carryover of late-season tobacco case orders from the local tobacco industry.\"Group revenue at US$41.7 million was 10% ahead of the comparative period on the back of increased demand for tobacco packaging,\" managing director Van Gend said.Trading income collapsed 69% from US$3.779 million to US$1.167 million, while operating profit fell 79% from US$4.448 million to US$951,299. The company generated US$41.7 million in sales and retained only US$306,024 as profit, translating to a net profit margin of 0.73%. No interim dividend was declared as the board opted to preserve liquidity for critical capi- tal expenditure.The parent company, Nampak Limited of South Africa, continues to disclose its 51.43% stake in Nampak Zimbabwe as an asset held for sale as discussions with potential acquirers continue.The headline from the results is not revenue growth but the destruction of profitability. Nampak Zimbabwe sold more product, utilised more capacity and generated higher revenue, though a progressively smaller share of that activity translated into earnings.The group attributed the deterioration to rising raw material costs and aggressive competitor pricing across all operating segments. The cost pressures were largely external. Resin and fuel prices increased as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East filtered through global commodity markets. Resin remains a critical input for plas- tics manufacturing, while fuel affects manufac- turing, transportation and distribution costs throughout the business.The group warned that the full impact of these pressures is expected to become more pronounced during the second half of the year as trading conditions tighten. Margin pressure visible in the first half is therefore unlikely to represent the peak of the challenge.The second pressure emerged from within the domestic market. Nampak reported aggressive pricing competition across all segments, affect- ing commercial carton volumes at Hunyani and metal packaging volumes at CarnaudMetalbox. Faced with the choice of defending margins or defending market share, the company chose to preserve market participation. That decision protected revenue and volumes, though it came at the expense of profitability.The results are particularly important because packaging demand sits close to the centre of formal economic activity. Manufacturers order cartons, bottles, closures and packaging materi- als when production is taking place. Revenue growth across Nampak's operations therefore confirms that activity within several sectors of the economy remains intact.The challenge emerging from the results is profitability. Revenue growth remains supported by expanding volumes and a more stable operating environment. Earnings growth is prov- ing substantially harder to achieve as manufacturers absorb rising input costs and increasingly compete for price-sen- sitive customers. Nampak's results provide a clear example of that reality.The tobacco sector illustrates the dynamic clearly. Zimbabwe is on course for one of its largest tobacco marketing seasons on record. Through Day 60, tobacco deliveries had reached 294.8 million kilograms at an average price of US$2.52 per kilogram, placing the crop 16.4% ahead of last season's volumes. Every additional kilogram harvested, graded and prepared for export requires packaging. Hunyani's 54% increase in corrugated packag- ing volumes confirms the direct linkage between agricultural growth and industrial demand.The Printing and Converting segment, which houses Hunyani Paper and Packaging, grew revenue from US$15.1 million to US$20.4 million, a 35% increase. Operating profit, how- ever, fell from US$1.504 million to US$685,000, a 54% decline. The result demonstrates the extent to which rising costs and pricing pressure absorbed the benefit of stronger tobacco-relat- ed demand.The Plastics and Metals segment experienced a more severe deterioration. Revenue declined from US$23.3 million to US$21.5 million, an 8% contraction, while operating profit collapsed from US$2.900 million to US$413,000, an 86% decline. Mega Pak volumes remained 5% ahead of the prior period, though customer uptake slowed noticeably during the second quarter. HDPE demand was 15% below the comparative period, partly reflecting cyclical demand patterns across several product cate- gories.Operations at Ruwa remained adversely affect- ed by persistent power cuts, resulting in increased plant breakdowns and reduced oper- ational efficiency. CarnaudMetalbox volumes were 2% below the prior period following supply chain delays experienced during the first quar- ter.Taken together, the segmental performance highlights a clear divide within the business. Printing and Converting benefited from tobac- co-driven volume growth but suffered margin compression. Plastics and Metals faced pres- sure on both volumes and profitability. The com- bined outcome was a group profit of just US$306,024 from US$41.7 million in revenue.Nampak Zimbabwe remains the country's domi- nant packaging manufacturer with established positions across paper, plastics and metal pack- aging. Scale traditionally provides a competitive advantage because larger manufacturers can spread costs across higher production volumes. The latest results suggest that scale alone is no longer sufficient protection against rising costs and aggressive competition.Future earnings growth may therefore depend less on volume expansion and more on the group's ability to recover pricing power, improve operating efficiencies and strengthen cost man- agement. That challenge is increasingly becom- ing a defining theme across Zimbabwe's manu- facturing sector.The Government of Zimbabwe previously issued treasury bills to the group for outstanding amounts related to blocked funds and foreign currency allocations that were approved under the auction system but not paid to suppliers. These instruments are carried at fair value through profit and loss. During the current period, a negative fair value adjustment of US$36,133 reduced the carrying value of the instruments to US$187,595. The reversal from a positive adjustment in the prior period confirms that legacy auction-market exposures continue to weigh on corporate balance sheets years after the system ceased operating.Nampak Limited continues to classify its 51.43% shareholding in Nampak Zimbabwe as an asset held for sale as discussions with poten- tial acquirers continue. The classification has now persisted across multiple reporting periods without a concluded transaction.The status creates a unique operating environ- ment. Capital allocation decisions are likely influenced by the need to preserve asset quality and transaction value while avoiding investment that may not be recoverable through a future disposal. The decision not to declare an interim dividend and to preserve liquidity for capital expenditure is consistent with that approach.Capital expenditure declined 44% from US$2.31 million to US$1.30 million during the period. In a manufacturing business facing rising competition and cost pressures, sus- tained investment remains central to long-term competitiveness. The machines that are not upgraded today frequently determine cost struc- tures and production efficiency several years later.N
The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 18marketsirst Mutual Properties shareholders have approved the company's voluntary delis- ting from the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, clearing the way for First Mutual Holdings to acquire minority shareholders at US$0.033 per share and bring one of Zimba- bwe's largest property companies fully under private ownership.Every resolution tabled at the Extraordinary General Meeting on 2 June 2026 received unanimous support, including the termination of the listing, the minority shareholder offer, amendments to the company's articles of asso- ciation and authority for directors to implement the transaction. The 100% vote brings to a close nearly two decades of public market participa- tion for a company that has been among the most recognisable names in Zimbabwe's com- mercial property sector.Formerly known as Pearl Properties, First Mutual Properties listed on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange in 2007 and subsequently built one of Zimbabwe's largest institutional property portfo- lios. Independent valuations place the portfolio at approximately US$136 million, comprising more than 117,250 square metres of lettable commercial, retail, industrial and suburban office space. The portfolio spans premium office parks, neighbourhood retail centres, commer- cial buildings and industrial facilities, creating one of the most diversified property platforms available to public investors.Flagship assets include Arundel Office Park, Arundel Office Extension, First Mutual Park and Pearl House, properties that have become closely associated with formal sector business activity and institutional property investment in Zimbabwe. The portfolio generates income from a broad tenant base across professional services, retail trade, commercial enterprises and industrial operators, giving it exposure to multiple segments of the economy.The portfolio is also evolving. Recent exten- sions at Arundel Office Park have added more than 2,600 square metres of prime office space, while the development pipeline includes subur- ban commercial projects, SME-focused retail hubs and a mixed-use development in Zvisha- vane incorporating student accommodation. These are growth initiatives associated with companies actively deploying capital and expanding their asset base. The decision to pursue that next phase of growth as a private company makes the delisting particularly note- worthy.The significance of the transaction therefore extends beyond the company itself. The delist- ing removes one of the largest institutional prop- erty investment vehicles available to public investors. Pension funds, insurance companies, asset managers and retail investors will lose direct access to a substantial property portfolio through the stock market.Property occupies a unique position within Zim- babwe's financial system because it has contin- uously served as both an income-generating asset class and a long-term store of value for institutional investors. Listed property compa- nies provided a bridge between physical real estate ownership and public market participa- tion. The removal of FMP narrows that bridge further.The departure raises a broader question. If a growing property company backed by hard assets, recurring rental income, a sizeable balance sheet and an active development pipe- line no longer finds strategic value in remaining listed, what does that reveal about the state of Zimbabwe's capital markets?The answer increasingly points towards a market struggling to fulfil its valuation function. Capital markets are designed to establish efficient pricing by bringing together buyers and sellers in sufficient numbers to discover value. Zimbabwe's equity market has faced persistent liquidity challenges for years. Trading activity remains concentrated in a handful of counters, leaving large portions of the market thinly traded. Under such conditions, share prices frequently fail to capture underlying asset values or future earnings potential.For property companies, this challenge becomes particularly pronounced. Commercial real estate businesses derive value from tangi- ble assets that can be independently valued and from rental income streams that are often rela- tively predictable. Investors traditionally assign significant weight to net asset value when assessing property companies. Persistent discounts between market capitalisation and underlying asset value create frustration for both manaagement and shareholders. Over time, the rationale for remaining listed begins to weaken.That reality has become increasingly visible across Zimbabwe's corporate landscape.The departure of FMP comes against the back- drop of a steadily shrinking Zimbabwe Stock Exchange. Over the past four years, the market has lost companies across financial services, consumer goods, industrials, telecommunica- tions, construction, retail, exchange traded funds and now property.Simbisa Brands migrated to the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange in 2022. National Foods followed the same route later that year. Get- Bucks exited in 2023 citing liquidity concerns. Bridgefort terminated its listing following a corporate action. The Old Mutual Top 10 ETF was wound up in 2025. Khayah Cement and Truworths disappeared following corporate rescue proceedings. National Tyre Services cited low liquidity and weak price discovery when pursuing its own delisting process.The list continues to grow and FMP now joins that group as another sizeable corporate choos- ing to leave the public market. The exits now stretch across restaurants, consumer goods, financial services, industrials, construction, retail, telecommunications and property. The breadth of sectors involved demonstrates that Zimbabwe's capital market challenges are no longer isolated to specific industries. They increasingly affect the market as a whole.What began as isolated transactions has increasingly evolved into a structural trend. The scale of that trend becomes even more appar- ent when viewed through the departure of Econet Wireless Zimbabwe.After nearly three decades on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, Econet formally delisted on 31 March 2026 following shareholder approval at an Extraordinary General Meeting. The compaCBZ RecalibratesFunded Income Gains Momentum F
The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 19*To Page 20ampak Limited, the JSE-listed packag- ing manufacturer, reported normalised headline earnings of R346 million for the six months ended 31 March 2026, up 9% from R317 million in the comparable period of 2025, on revenue that declined marginally by 1% to R5.6 billion. Beverage Angola grew revenue 30% and delivered a R319 million impairment reversal, while beverage South Africa grew revenue 5%. The Diversified segment contract- ed 18% in revenue and 44% in normalised EBITDA, with net debt reduced 30% to R2.183 billion. These are the numbers that financial analysts covering the JSE packaging sector will dissect. However, the number that matters most for anyone reading this in Harare, or for any foreign investor assessing Zimbabwe’s investment climate, is R136 million.Nampak has recorded a R136 million impair- ment charge against its 51.43% stake in Nampak Zimbabwe Limited in the current period, converting a business that contributed a R68 million profit in H1 2025 into a R108 million loss in H1 2026. The company has placed the business in discontinued operations as an asset held for sale. Nampak is leaving Zimbabwe.Nampak’s results announcement contains this precise formulation regarding the planned disposal of its Zimbabwe stake: proceeds from the NZL disposal will contribute to the reduction of the group’s net debt and eliminate risk associ- ated with operating in the Zimbabwe economy.Four words in that sentence carry the full analyt- ical weight of the Zimbabwe story: “eliminate risk associated”. Nampak is not describing Zim- babwe as a market with cyclical challenges or a regulatory environment requiring engagement, it is describing Zimbabwe as a source of risk that requires elimination, a risk category so structural in its assessment that the correct corporate response is disposal rather than man- agement, restructuring rather than investment, and exit rather than engagement.This is analytically significant because Nampak is not a portfolio investor making a passive capi- tal allocation decision. It is a manufacturing company with physical assets in Zimbabwe, operational staff, customer relationships, supply chain infrastructure, and institutional knowledge of the market built across decades of operation. When a manufacturing company with embed- ded operational presence decides that the correct strategic response to a market is to clas- sify it as a risk to be eliminated, it is making a specific and weighty judgement about the fundamental investability of that operating envi- ronment. The judgement carries more information than a bond rating downgrade or a portfolio outflow statistic, because it comes from an operator who knows the market from the inside rather than from a risk model calibrated to external macroeconomic indicators.The R136 million impairment charge on Nampak Zimbabwe requires analytical context beyond its absolute size. Nampak Zimbabwe is a manufacturer of packaging products including beverage cans, glass, and flexible packaging, serving Zimbabwe's formal consumer goods sector. Its customers include the same compa- nies whose results Equity Axis covers regularly: Delta Corporation for beverages, Dairibord Holdings for dairy packaging, and the broader FMCG manufacturing base that constitutes Zim- babwe's formal industrial sector. An impairment against a manufacturing subsidi- ary means that Nampak's directors have assessed the recoverable amount of NZL's assets, including its property, plant, equipment, and working capital, and concluded that their carrying value in the consolidated accounts Nampak's Zimbabwe ExitDelivers Harsh Verdict on Investment RiskN*From Page 19 -ny was not merely another listed counter. It was Zimbabwe's most recognised listed corpo- rate and one of the largest constituents of the exchange.At the time it announced its intention to delist, Econet accounted for roughly one-third of total Zimbabwe Stock Exchange market capitalisa- tion. Its market value stood at approximately US$628 million when the first cautionary announcement was issued in December 2025. A rally that followed pushed that valuation closer to US$1 billion before the delisting was complet- ed.The departure immediately removed approxi- mately one-fifth of total market capitalisation from the exchange, reduced daily trading liquidi- ty and eliminated one of the few counters that pension funds, insurance companies and insti- tutional investors held in significant size.The symbolism was equally important. Econet's listing remains one of the defining moments in Zimbabwe's corporate history. The company represented the emergence of a new genera- tion of indigenous corporate leadership, became one of the country's most successful listed businesses and grew into a flagship counter for both local and foreign investors. Its departure marked more than the loss of a major listing. It highlighted a changing relationship between Zimbabwe's largest companies and the public market itself.The common thread running through many of these transactions is increasingly difficult to ignore. Companies across property, telecom- munications, manufacturing, hospitality, finan- cial services and distribution have arrived at similar conclusions regarding the benefits of remaining publicly listed. Each case carries its own company-specific dynamics. Collectively, they expose deeper structural pressures affect- ing the market itself.A functioning stock exchange serves three primary purposes. It enables companies to raise growth capital, allows investors to participate in corporate success and provides a transparent mechanism for valuing businesses. Zimbabwe's market continues to support investor participa- tion and trading activity. The capital formation function has weakened considerably. Few large companies are raising meaningful new equity. Several of the country's most significant corpo- rates are choosing private ownership, strategic investors or alternative exchanges as their preferred route forward.The shift becomes even more striking when viewed against the historical role of the Zimba- bwe Stock Exchange. For decades, a public listing represented a major milestone in a com- pany's growth journey. Businesses used the market to raise expansion capital, fund acquisi- tions and broaden ownership. Many of Zimba- bwe's largest corporates built portions of their growth story through public markets. Today, the conversation increasingly centres on why com- panies remain listed at all. The migration from public ownership towards strategic sharehold- ers, internal funding structures and private capi- tal marks a significant evolution in corporate financing behaviour.The emergence of the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange has added another dimension to this transition. The US dollar-denominated bourse has established itself as an increasingly attrac- tive destination for companies seeking hard-currency valuations and access to interna- tional capital pools. Turnover growth and strong index performance have enhanced its appeal. Every successful migration strengthens the investment case for the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange and simultaneously raises fresh questions about the future positioning of the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange.The challenge facing the ZSE extends beyond competition from the VFEX. Zimbabwe's prolonged history of currency instability altered the behaviour of market participants for years. Equities often functioned as inflation hedges and stores of value during periods of monetary uncertainty. The introduction of the Zimbabwe Gold curren- cy and the tighter monetary framework that followed have changed that environment. Speculative liquidity has moderated. The under- lying depth of long-term investment capital has become easier to observe. The market now faces the difficult task of attracting sustainable institutional demand capable of supporting valu- ations and facilitating meaningful capital forma- tion.The consequences extend well beyond stock- brokers, fund managers and listed companies. Strong capital markets channel savings into productive investment, support business expan- sion, create employment opportunities and improve economic efficiency. Weak capital mar- kets constrain those outcomes. Businesses become increasingly reliant on internal funding, bank debt or strategic investors. Smaller com- panies lose an important pathway to growth capital. Investors face fewer opportunities to participate in wealth creation through public ownership.Delta Corporation, the largest remaining com- pany on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, contin- ues to maintain that the exchange provides meaningful liquidity through pension funds and domestic institutional investors. Other compa- nies increasingly believe greater value can be unlocked through private ownership structures or alternative exchanges. The coexistence of these competing views highlights the complexi- ty of the challenge facing policymakers, regula- tors and market operators.From First Mutual Holdings' perspective, the transaction is strategically rational. Full owner- ship simplifies decision-making, reduces com- pliance obligations and creates greater flexibility in managing a substantial property portfolio. Capital allocation decisions can now be made entirely within the group structure while man- agement retains full control over future develop- ment projects and portfolio optimisation.
The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 20*From Page 19 exceeds what the assets would generate either in continued use or in a sale transaction. The R136 million write-down is the accounting recognition that NZL is worth less than Nam- pak's books previously stated.The H1 2025 to H1 2026 swing from a R68 million profit contribution to a R108 million loss contribution is a R176 million deterioration in a single six-month period. That deterioration includes the impairment, which is a non-cash accounting charge, but it also reflects the under- lying trading performance of the Zimbabwe business in a period when Zimbabwe's macro- economic statistics were, by most headline measures, constructive. The most instructive comparison in Nampak's H1 2026 results was between Nampak Zimba- bwe and Beverage Angola. These are two African markets outside South Africa in which Nampak operates manufacturing assets. In H1 2026, Beverage Angola grew revenue 30% to R664 million, grew normalised EBITDA 28% to R187 million, triggered a R319 million impair- ment reversal because the business's improv- ing performance and sustained positive outlook justified increasing rather than decreasing the carrying value of its assets, and is described in the outlook as a growth driver well positioned to capitalise on positive category and economic indicators. Nampak Zimbabwe in the same period generated a R108 million loss, triggered a R136 million impairment charge, and is being sold.Angola's performance is explicitly attributed to an improved economic environment, stable currency, and increased consumer demand. The parallel formulation for Zimbabwe, operat- ing in the Zimbabwe economy, is presented as a risk category requiring elimination. Two African manufacturing operations under the same corporate parent, operating in the same half-year period, producing diametrically opposed outcomes. The difference is coun- try-level operating environment quality, and Nampak's capital allocation response to those environments, investing in Angola and exiting Zimbabwe, is the clearest available signal from an embedded operator about how those two environments compare as destinations for man- ufacturing capital.The disposal of Nampak's 51.43% interest in Nampak Zimbabwe is progressing with interest- ed parties, according to the group, with NZL continuing to be disclosed as an asset held for sale. The identity of the interested parties, the implied valuation at which discussions are proceeding, and the timeline to a binding trans- action was not disclosed. What was disclosed was that Nampak intends to use the disposal proceeds to reduce group net debt, which at R2.183 billion excluding capitalised leases is still elevated relative to the R816 million normalised EBITDA run rate, implying a net debt to EBITDA ratio of approximately 1.3 times on the continuing operations basis. The disposal is therefore simultaneously a stra- tegic decision to exit a risk environment and a financial decision to accelerate deleveraging, and both motivations reinforce rather than con- tradict each other.For Zimbabwe's formal consumer goods manu- facturing sector, the departure of Nampak as a 51.43% controlling shareholder creates a spe- cific question about the future of NZL's manu- facturing capacity, customer supply relation- ships, and technical standards. Nampak Zimba- bwe supplies packaging to some of Zimbabwe's largest listed consumer goods companies. A change of controlling shareholder, depending on the identity and capital structure of the acquirer, could affect NZL's access to the raw material supply chains, technical expertise, and equipment procurement networks that a rela- tionship with a large JSE-listed parent provides. A well-capitalised domestic acquirer, or an acquisition by Mutapa or a similar state-aligned vehicle, preserves the operational continuity but changes the technology and capital access dynamic. An acquisition by a strategic packag- ing industry buyer from within the region provides continuity of both. A distressed acquisi- tion at a price reflecting the impaired carrying value could produce operational deterioration that affects the supply chain reliability of NZL's customers.The Broader Nampak Story and What the Zim- babwe Weight RemovesNampak's H1 2026 continuing operations result was stronger than the headline suggested once the Diversified drag is isolated. Excluding Diver- sified, revenue grew 6% and normalised EBITDA grew 9%, reflecting genuine momen- tum in the Beverage platform that now spans South Africa, Angola, and regional export mar- kets. The 33% reduction in net finance costs to R189 million from R282 million reflected the debt reduction programme's operational effect: as proceeds from the Bevcan Nigeria disposal in H1 2025 were applied to reduce net debt, the interest burden fell materially, and that reduction flows directly through to normalised headline earnings growth of 9%. Net gearing fell from 149% to 69%, a structural derisking that positionns the group to consider resuming dividends from year end subject to full year performance.The Springs Line 4 project, relocating a surplus Angolan can manufacturing line to the Springs facility in South Africa, was the most concrete capital investment signal in the results: R126 million of the R239 million capital expenditure in H1 2026 related to that relocation, with an addi- tional R94 million expensed for relocation and recommissioning costs. The project completion target is September 2026, adding smaller can format flexibility and 500ml capacity through a Springs Line 1 con- version by year end. The Diversified segment's 44% EBITDA collapse was the most immediate operational problem in the results, driven by a combination of fish supply disruption, seasonal fruit dynam- ics, the loss of the largest deodorant customer to a brand change, and the structural loss of aerosols and closures business. The strategic review of Diversified was conclud- ed during the period and actions are being implemented, including the exit of metal closures and Western Cape factory consolida- tion. Management is guiding that performance for the remainder of the year will be in line with the prior year comparative once the restructuring actions take effect, with a sustainable double-digit EBITDA margin targeted once the portfolio reset is complete.Nampak was a better business at the end of H1 2026 than the total operations headline, which shows an 86% profit decline driven entirely by the prior period's R2.5 billion Bevcan Nigeria disposal gain, would suggest. The continu- ing operations platform, led by Beverage Angola's growth momentum and Beverage SA's stable performance, is generating normalised earnings growth and genuine operating leverage. The Zimbabwe exit, when com- pleted, removes from the consoli- dated accounts both the loss con- tribution and what the group explicitly characterises as a risk category rather than an invest- ment. That elimination of Zimba- bwe risk from Nampak's balance sheet will be read differently in Johannesburg, where it is a deleveraging and simplification event, and in Harare, where it is a foreign manufacturing investor's verdict on the investability of oper- ating in the Zimbabwe economy. Both readings are correct, they are simply not equally comfort- able.
''Term of The WeekUnderstanding the termSimilar to most bonds, debentures may pay periodic interest payments called coupon payments. Like other types of bonds, debentures are documented in an indenture. An indenture is a legal and binding contract between bond issuers and bondholders.The contract specifies features of a debt offering, such as the maturity date, the timing of interest or coupon payments, the method of interest calculation, and other features. Corporations and governments can issue debentures.Governments typically issue long-term bonds—those with maturities of longer than 10 years. Considered low-risk investments, these government bonds have the backing of the government issuer.Corporations also use debentures as long-term loans. However, the debentures of corporations are unsecured. Instead, they have the backing of only the financial viability and creditworthiness of the underlying company.A debenture is a type of bond or other debt instrument that is unsecured by collater- al. Since debentures have no collateral backing, they must rely on the creditworthi- ness and reputation of the issuer for support. Both corporations and governments frequently issue debentures to raise capital or funds.DebentureThe AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 21n the year ended 31 December 2025, RioZim Limited reported a sobering financial and operational performance, a notably displeasing one amid a global gold rush. The Group produced 84 kilograms of gold across the entire financial year, a staggering 80% decline from the 428 kilograms delivered in the prior period and that places the company, in opera- tional terms, well below the threshold of a func- tioning gold mining enterprise.RioZim’s total revenue fell 47% to ZWG251.3 million, equivalent to approximately USD9.7 million at the closing interbank rate of ZWG25.98 per US dollar. Against a national backdrop in which Zimbabwe delivered more than 44 tonnes of gold to the Fidelity Gold Refin- ery in 2025, with artisanal/small-scale miners alone contributing in excess of 33 tonnes, RioZim's contribution is measured in fractions rather than competitive units. The Group record- ed a net loss of ZWG739.1 million attributable to equity holders of the parent, widening from ZWG627.4 million in FY2024, and total equity closed the year at a deficit of ZWG1.56 billion, deepened from a deficit of ZWG838.4 million twelve months earlier.The operational performance is underpinned by the protracted under-capitalisation that left both Renco and Cam & Motor mines incapable of sustaining production into 2025. Both opera- tions entered the year suspended. Cam & Motor recorded no production whatsoever through the twelve-month period. Renco, the Group's flag- ship gold mine in Masvingo Province, remained dormant through the first three quarters as man- agement conducted comprehensive due diligence on potential strategic partners. The breakthrough came in the form of a Mining and Extraction Services Agreement with FeiFan Mining (Private) Limited, concluded after mid-year and enabling production to resume at Renco in September 2025. From that restart through to 31 December, the mine produced the 84 kilograms that constitutes the entirety of the Group's gold output for the year. At Cam & Motor, dewatering of the flooded open pits com- menced in November following mobilisation of pumping infrastructure and continued through year-end, with completion achieved in the first quarter of 2026 and a production restart target- ed for the second half of 2026.RioZim’s gross loss narrowed from ZWG171.4 million to ZWG61.1 million, which on the surface might suggest improvement. The narrowing is not a function of revenue recovery but of cost reduction. Cost of sales fell 51.7% to ZWG312.5 million as the transition of mining execution to FeiFan under the contract arrangement stripped out a portion of the variable cost burden. Admin- istrative expenses, however, rose from ZWG488.1 million to ZWG595.2 million, absorb- ing the ongoing corporate overhead of an organisation maintaining a full management structure, holding care-and-maintenance obli- gations at the Empress Nickel Refinery in Kadoma. Finance costs of ZWG66.3 million reflect the interest charge on the FeiFan loan facility of ZWG389.7 million plus short-term advances from Takaoma Investments and Mountpack Investments, both secured or linked to Renco mine's cash flows. Beyond the operating losses attributable to RioZim's own operations, a ZWG303.4 million share of loss from associate represented the Group's proportionate claim on the losses of RZM Murowa, the diamond mining entity in which RioZim holds an associate interest. Mur- owa's production declined 58% to 149,000 carats on depressed international diamond prices, and the associated losses absorbed at the Group level have escalated from ZWG66 million in FY2024 to ZWG303.4 million in FY2025, a trajectory that raises the question of whether the ZWG346.1 million carrying value of the associate investment remains recoverable.The dominant variable for RioZim, going forward, is gold price, and gold has moved in the Group's favour in a manner that was not fore- seeable when the depth of the operational decline was being realised. The average real- ised price during FY2025 was USD3,436 per ounce, 44% above the FY2024 average of USD2,389 per ounce. By 2026, gold has contin- ued to trend toward USD5,000 per ounce. Applied to a fully operational two-mine produc- tion rate of 4,000 to 5,000 kilograms per year, which represents a credible steady-state target for Renco and Cam & Motor combined under capable management and adequate capital, the revenue potential is transformational relative to the FY2025 base. At USD5,000 per ounce and 5,000 kilograms of annual output, the implied gold revenue approaches USD800 million per year at current prices, a scale that would com- pletely reframe the Group's solvency position and earnings trajectory. The gap between the current 84-kilogram annual baseline and that production rate is, however, not a theoretical one as it requires the successful completion of the Cam & Motor restart, the progressive scal- ing of Renco output under the FeiFan arrange- ment, sustained power supply at both opera- tions, continued capital availability from the funding partners, and the resolution of the com- plex web of contractual economic rights that the FeiFan arrangement introduces into the Renco cash flow chain.RioZim at Record LowsFrom Gold Producer to CaretakerI
Dollar hovers near 2-mth high after fresh Gulf tensions; US jobs data loomsThe U.S. dollar held near a two-month high on Thursday after sharp gains in the previous ses- sion, driven by escalating Middle East tensions and expectations of higher-for-longer Federal Reserve interest rates.The US Dollar Index was little changed in Asian trading after climbing to its strongest level in roughly two months overnight.Washington said on Wednesday that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to implement a ceasefire deal, although the agreement depends on Hez- bollah halting its hostilities. However, fresh hostilities this week, including reported Iranian missile attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain, and U.S. strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz, stoked caution.– nytimesAmazon unveils new AI warehouse robot in $12 billion Europe pushAmazon on Thursday unveiled an upgraded AI-powered mobile robot for its warehouses that can respond to conversational prompts, as part of a €10 billion ($11.6 billion) investment in its European fulfilment network.The Seattle-based e-commerce giant show- cased the next-generation Proteus robot at its \"Delivering the Future\" event at its Dartford fulfil- ment centre east of London, as it works to speed up deliveries.The current Proteus, deployed at 25 U.S. sites, operates only in dock areas, moving carts weighing up to nearly 400 kg (882 lbs). - BloombergUK construction output falls at fastest pace in six yearsUK construction activity declined at its sharpest rate in six years during May, according to data released today by S&P Global.The S&P Global UK Construction PMI fell to 38.2 in May from 39.7 in April, marking the sev- enteenth consecutive month below the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contrac- tion.The latest decline was the steepest since May 2020, excluding the drop at the start of the pan- demic. The rate of contraction was the fastest since March 2009.All three main categories of construction work posted sharp declines in outputå during May. Residential activity recorded an index reading of 36.0, making it the weakest-performing seg- ment. Construction firms cited unfavorable market conditions and elevated borrowing costs as headwinds.- reutersGold prices rise after Israel-Lebanon cease- fire dealGold prices rose nearly 1% on Thursday as tentative signs of easing Middle East tensions alleviated some inflation concerns, while inves- tors awaited key U.S. labor market data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.Spot gold rose 0.9% to $4,476.07 an ounce by 02:12 ET (06:12 GMT), while U.S. Gold Futures advanced 0.8% to $4,502.84/oz.The yellow metal fell more than 1% in the previ- ous session, pressured by a stronger dollar. - cnbcBitcoin slides to 4-mth low at $61k as Iran tensions weigh, ETF outflows continueBitcoin slid to a near four-month low on Thurs- day, extending recent losses as markets remained largely averse towards cryptocurren- cies as heightened tensions in the Middle East spurred risk aversion.Continued institutional outflows in major Bitcoin exchange-traded funds continued to pressure the world’s largest crypto, as investors pivoted towards more topical sectors, such as artificial intelligence. - wsjChina-backed Wesizwe’s South African plat- inum project to cut 70% of workforceWesizwe Platinum will lay off nearly 500 work- ers, or around 70% of the workforce, at its Bakubung mine in South Africa, it said on Thurs- day, as it shifts from phased development of the delayed project to a single-stage ramp up.While South Africa accounts for more than 70% of the global supply of the metal used in autocat- alysts that reduce vehicle exhaust emissions, new platinum projects like Bakubung are increasingly rare.Platinum miners are apprehensive about expanding production as the industry faces a long-term threat from electric vehicles, which do not require autocatalyst metals. - DWSouth Africa says it complies with all obliga- tions on forced labour, after U.S. proposes tariffsSouth Africa is compliant with all domestic and international obligations on forced labour, its trade ministry said on Thursday, after the Trump administration proposed tariffs on imports from 60 countries including South Africa over the issue.“South Africa stands ready to … engage the US in this regard,” the ministry said in a statement.- MT NewswiresCANAL+ becomes first French company to list in JohannesburgPay-TV group CANAL+ is confident it can turn around struggling South African broadcaster MultiChoice, its CEO said on Wednesday, as it became the first French company to list on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.CANAL+, which retains its primary listing in London, had committed to a South African listing when it acquired MultiChoice in 2025, providing a boost to the Johannesburg exchange, which has suffered from a series of departures and a dearth of high-profile joiners in recent years.The stock remained near its debut price of 58.50 rand ($3.59) throughout the day.The French company’s push into English-speaking Africa is part of a strategy to become a global entertainment platform across Europe, Africa and Asia.Following its acquisition of MultiChoice, CANAL+ revealed the scale of challenges at the South African unit, which is bleeding subscrib- ers, and unveiled a €100-million ($116-million) plan to revive the business. - Retail Insight NetworkTLcom secures $70mn pan-African tech fundTLcom has secured $70 million in funding, the first tranche of its $150-million Africa-focused tech fund. The venture capital firm says it plans to expand to Egypt as it focuses on tech-en- abled African start-ups. - reutersGhana says Africa debt is ‘mispriced’ and targets investment-grade ratingGhana’s president and finance minister said on Wednesday that African debt was “mispriced” and there needed to be faster and fairer restruc- turing tools, adding that their country was target- ing an investment-grade credit rating within three years.President John Dramani Mahama and Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson made the com- ments at an investor conference in London.The West African gold, oil, and cocoa-producing country’s economy is on the mend after a 2022 debt default that required restructuring of the government’s external and domestic debt. - Bloomberg.Amazon launches Prime in South Africa for under $4 a monthE-commerce giant Amazon.com said on Wednesday it has launched its paid Prime service in South Africa, offering faster deliveries and media content for 59 South African rand ($3.61) a month or 399 rand a year. - cnbcU.S. proposes fresh tariffs on 60 economies over forced labour trade practicesThe Office of the U.S. Trade Representative has proposed additional tariffs of up to 12.5% on imports from 60 economies over their failure to ban goods made with forced labor, in a sweep- ing action that would hurt most trading partners, including China, the European Union and Japan.The determination, made under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, found that all 60 coun- tries have failed to impose or effectively enforce a prohibition on forced labor-related imports, creating what it called an “unlevel playing field” for American workers.USTR has proposed a 10% duty rate for econo- mies that have adopted a full or partial prohibi- tion on forced labor trade, and 12.5% for all other economies. - investing.comKenya private sector activity falls in May, PMI showsKenya’s private sector activity shrank for a third straight month in May, hurt by a general rise in costs for both businesses and their customers, a survey showed on Thursday.The Stanbic Bank Kenya Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 46.6 in May from 49.4 a month earli- er. Readings above 50.0 indicate growth in busi- ness activity, while those below that signal con- traction. The May figure was the fastest drop since July 2024.“When explaining the latest drop, panellists remarked on demand weakness, inflationary pressures and shortages of new work. Manufac- turing bucked the wider trend and was the only sub-sector to see growth,” Stanbic Bank said in comments accompanying the survey. - cnbcafricaAfrica Finance Corp raises record $2 billion syndicated loanThe Africa Finance Corporation raised $2 billion via a syndicated loan – the largest in its history – to support infrastructure and industrial growth.AFC Chief Executive Samaila Zubairu told Apnews that the money would enable “more master planning around infrastructure and industrial planning for economies”, regions and economic corridors across the continent. - ApnewsInflation hits 3.2% in the euro zone as Iran war pushes energy costs higherEuro zone inflation rose to an estimated 3.2% in May, driven by double-digit energy price growth, official data showed on Tuesday. - BbcJob openings in April surged to 7.6 million, the highest in nearly two yearsJob openings hit their highest level in nearly two years during April while hiring fell sharply, according to a government report Tuesday that showed rising demand but also slow hiring in the labor market.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that available employment hit 7.6 million for the month, a surge of 731,000 from the prior month and the highest level since May 2024. Econo- mists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 6.8 million openings from the BLS’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. - Reu- tersBusiness Around The World The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 22
Five countries elected to UN Security Coun- cilThe United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday elected Austria, Kyrgyzstan, Portu- gal, Trinidad and Tobago and Zimbabwe to the 15-member U.N. Security Council for two-year terms starting on January 1, 2027.Germany, which had lobbied hard for a seat, came third for the two places contested by the Western European and Others Group, with 104 votes, against 134 for Portugal and 131 for Austria.The contest between the Philippines and Kyr- gyzstan for the seat for the Asia-Pacific Group went to four rounds of voting, with Kyrgyzstan eventually achieving the necessary two-thirds majority and securing its first-ever Security Council seat by 142 votes to 49.” - Bbc.Israel, Lebanon agree to fragile ceasefireIsrael and Lebanon have agreed to renew their shaky ceasefire, bolstering hopes for an eventu- al peace deal between the U.S. and Iran.An agreement between Washington and Tehran has been contingent upon a cessation to fight- ing in Lebanon, where U.S.-aligned Israeli forces have been battling Iran-backed Hezbol- lah militants. Following a fourth round of U.S.-mediated discussions, both Israel and Lebanon said the truce would be \"contingent on a complete ces- sation of Hezbollah fire and the evacuation of all Hezbollah operatives\" from areas south of the Litani River in southern Lebanon.\"These steps will enable progress towards a comprehensive peace and security agreement,\" a joint statement said.Hezbollah, notably, did not take part in the nego- tiations.Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, edged down in the wake of the ceasefire announcement, sliding by 1.3% to $96.55 a barrel. - Abcnews.Zimbabwe presses ahead with bill that would extend president’s term to 2030Zimbabwe’s government introduced a bill to parliament on Tuesday that would extend Presi- dent Emmerson Mnangagwa’s term by two years to 2030, despite criticism from a fractured opposition and some veterans of the country’s liberation war.The draft legislation will be debated on Tuesday at a second reading in parliament.Mnangagwa, 83, is meant to step down in 2028 after serving two five-year stints as head of state, but his supporters want to change the constitution to extend presidential terms from five years to seven. - TheGuardian.Iran war disruption threatening delivery of lifesaving supplies for children, UN saysSurging global transport costs and supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East crisis are threatening the delivery of lifesaving aid to chil- dren, the U.N. children’s agency warned on Tuesday.Nearly 100 days after the outbreak of the Iran war, heightened insecurity around key Gulf ship- ping routes has driven up fuel prices and insur- ance premiums, while congestion at alternative ports has compounded disruptions, hampering aid deliveries.U.N. children’s agency UNICEF said it was increasingly relying on air freight due to shipping delays. In the first quarter alone, the agency nearly exhausted annual contributions from logistics partners that donate charter flights, as it flew supplies into Lebanon and Gaza amid delays of up to four to six weeks. That is unprec- edented, UNICEF’s Chief of Global Transport and Logistics, Jean-Cedric Meeus, told report- ers. - Npr.Malawi to repatriate citizens from South Africa amid anti-immigrant attacksMalawi will join other countries in repatriating its nationals seeking to leave South Africa, where attacks on African migrants have been reported in parts of the country.The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a state- ment late on Tuesday that the programme would be limited to citizens who have requested assistance, with details to be announced once logistical arrangements are finalised.Xenophobic attacks are a recurring problem in South Africa, where immigrants are often blamed for economic challenges such as high unemployment. - Aljazeera.US equipment, experts arrive at Kenya Ebola facility despite court order, protestsAround 20 flights carrying medical equipment and specialist staff have landed at a base in Kenya where the U.S. government is continuing to build an Ebola quarantine facility despite protests and Kenyan court orders blocking it, according to flight data and officials.At least two people have been killed in protests in the central Kenyan town of Nanyuki, home to the Kenyan air force base where the U.S. mili- tary is building a 50-bed unit for Americans who might be exposed to the virus, which has infect- ed hundreds in Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda.A U.S. diplomatic cable, part of which was seen by Reuters, said Kenya’s President William Ruto may have underestimated domestic oppo- sition to the plan, which has triggered criticism the U.S. is offloading the risk of caring for its own patients. - BBC.U.S. and Iran still without deal to end war after Trump says he’s not in a ‘hurry’The U.S. and Iran have yet to ink an agreement to end the war that has dragged on into its fourth month, with President Donald Trump saying Saturday that he is in “no hurry” to make a deal.Trump, in an interview with his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, on Fox News, said that he is press- ing for a deal that would ensure Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon. And while he said he would prefer that the pact is reached quickly, he is not rushing the process. The president also threatened further military action if negotia- tions break down.“I’d like to say I’m in a hurry because gasoline prices are going to come tumbling down, but if you’re going to be in a hurry, you’re not going to make a good deal,” Trump said. “And slowly but surely we’re getting, I think, what we want, and if we don’t get what we want we’re going to end it a different way.”- Reuters.Supreme Court allows Alabama to use con- gressional map that dilutes Black voteThe Supreme Court on Tuesday night said it would allow the state of Alabama to use a new map for congressional districts that a lower federal court had ruled was discriminatory to Black voters.The 6-3 ruling by the Supreme Court eliminates one of the two majority Black districts in Alabama, and is expected to result in Republi- cans gaining one seat from the state in the House of Representatives in November’s mid- term elections.The ruling by the Supreme Court’s six-member conservative majority was unsigned. Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote a dissent to the deci- sion, in which she was joined by her fellow liber- al justices, Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson. - AIM.Trump still protected from tax enforcement, but anti-weaponization fund is dead, Blanche saysThe Department of Justice has permanently abandoned plans for a $1.8 billion anti-weapon- ization compensation fund created to settle a lawsuit by President Donald Trump against the Internal Revenue Service, acting Attorney Gen- eral Todd Blanche testified to a House panel on Tuesday.But Trump, his family members and related business entities remain protected from tax audits and enforcement actions in connection with tax returns filed before last month’s out-of-court settlement of his lawsuit, Blanche told the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies.Blanche, who previously served as Trump’s criminal defense attorney, personally signed off on the DOJ’s May 19 addendum to the settle- ment of the lawsuit that gave Trump and his family that protection, a day after the deal was announced. - Zambianobserver.U.S. jury finds investor Andrew Left guilty of securities fraudA U.S. jury found prominent investor Andrew Left guilty of securities fraud on Monday, the Justice Department said, in a blow to a divisive cohort of short sellers who have for years goad- ed public companies in the U.S. and overseas with allegations of fraud and mismanagement.U.S. authorities charged Left in July 2024, alleg- ing he had manipulated the stock market and defrauded investors with misleading claims about his positions in multiple companies’ shares, including Nvidia and Tesla, making at least $20 million in the process.Left, who runs Citron Research, denied the alle- gations and had pleaded not guilty. - Polity. U.S. intercepted Iranian missiles targeting American forces in Kuwait, Central Com- mand saysU.S. Central Command on Monday said Iran fired two ballistic missiles overnight targeting American forces stationed in Kuwait, the latest in a series of attacks that further undermine a threadbare ceasefire.The missiles fired Sunday night at 11 p.m. ET were successfully intercepted and no U.S. personnel were harmed, CENTCOM said in an X post.“U.S. Central Command remains vigilant and will continue to protect our forces from Iranian aggression while supporting the ongoing cease- fire,” the post said.” - Cnn Netanyahu says he and Trump have ‘tactical disagreements’ but agree overall amid Iran warIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a wide-ranging interview with CNBC’s Sara Eisen in Jerusalem on Wednesday talked about his relationship with President Donald Trump, played down concerns about the world’s oil supply being constrained due to the war with Iran, and touted Israel to investors. - CNBCFinland’s president says EU should expand to 40 states — including CanadaFinnish President Alexander Stubb has outlined his vision for a much larger European Union, saying the 27-nation bloc needs to “think big” and seize the moment to project power on the global stage.Speaking at an energy conference in the Finn- ish capital on Wednesday, Stubb said the EU should push to increase its membership to 40 states and named the U.K., Canada, Turkey, Norway and Iceland as potential candidates to join.His comments come as the Trump administra- tion’s actions, alongside Russia’s war with Ukraine, prompt some countries to reconsider the benefits of EU membership.- PoliticoPolitics Around The World The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 23
The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 24WeeklyCommodity PulseAluminium was the strongest performer, in the past week, in percentage terms over the five-week period, gaining 7.8% to close at $3,752/t on the LME 3-month contract, its highest level since the peak supply-shock period of late April. Persistent output disruption at UAE and Bahrain smelting facilities following Iranian strikes maintained a structurally tight non-Chinese supply balance throughout May. Emirates Global Aluminium's warning that full capacity restoration could take over a year has not been revised, and Bahrain's ALBA opera- tions remained at reduced capacity for the entirety of the period.Chinese demand accelerated markedly through May: grid investment spending reached a new monthly record, EV production surpassed 1.2 million units for the second consecutive month, and solar panel manu- facturing output continued to grow at double-digit annual rates, all aluminium-intensive end uses. LME stocks fell for a sixth consecutive week,as buyers drew down inventory to cover near-term requirements. In the past week, nickel declined modestly by 1.6% over the five-week period, consolidating near two-year highs as the two competing forces of structural tight- ness and short-term demand concern balanced each other. The gradual easing of Hormuz-linked sulphur supply-chain disruption through May removed one of the metal's key near-term support pillars, the sulphur shortage that had been tightening High-Pressure Acid Leach battery precursor processing economics. LME nickel closed at $19,062/t, broadly flat with its April levels despite significant intra-period v olatility.Indonesia's RKAB ore quota discipline continued to constrain primary nickel feed throughout the period, and the International Nickel Study Group's revised 2026 market balance forecast, projecting a small deficit rather than the previously expected surplus, continues to anchor medium-term bullish sentiment. Battery demand from EV manufacturers remained firm, and several major European battery cell plants broke ground during the period, each representing multi-year offtake demand for nickel sulphate. Platinum fell 3.7% over the five-week period, tracking gold's broader decline as improving ceasefire prospects reduced both safe-haven demand and the infla- tion-hedge premium that had supported precious metals through April. The metal slipped below the psychologically significant $2,000/oz level in mid-May and settled near $1,960 by 4 June. The magnitude of the decline was moderated by ongoing structural industrial demand: South African producers continued to price in logistics premiums from Cape of Good Hope rerouting, adding 12–14 days per voyage and sustain- ing elevated freight costs.Autocatalyst demand from recovering automotive production provided a consistent demand floor throughout the period, as did accelerating procure- ment by European hydrogen fuel cell and electrolyser projects. The breakdown in Iran-linked palladium refin- ing chains continued to stimulate platinum substitution demand in autocatalyst applications. Despite the near-term price weakness, the medium-term structural case for platinum remains intact. Copper was the standout performer among base metals over the five-week period, rising 7.4% to close at $13,825/t on the LME 3-month contract. The prima- ry driver was the gradual easing of Hormuz supply-chain premiums as US–Iran negotiations toward a 60-day memorandum of understanding progressed through May. Reduced logistics cost uncer- tainty improved industrial demand confidence, while a stronger Chinese manufacturing PMI throughout the period reinforced the demand-side tailwind. The $13,000/t floor held comfortably throughout the entire period, establishing it as a technically robust support level. Accelerating datacenter construction , driven by hyperscaler capital expenditure running at near-record quarterly levels, and grid infrastructure investment provided structural demand well beyond the near-term geopolitical noise. Chilean permitting reforms announced in mid-May provided longer-term supply optimism without denting current price momentum, $14,000/t is now the key near-term resis- tance, with speculative long positions rising to their highest level since February 2026.In the past week, gold declined 3.6% over the five-week period from 28 April to 4 June 2026, falling to $4,437/oz. The primary headwind was a persistent repricing of US interest rate expectations: surging energy costs driven by the Hormuz supply shock elevated inflation well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and mixed US growth data stiffened market resolve that rates would remain higher for longer. On 1 June, gold surrendered nearly $70 in a single session, closing at $4,479 and testing its 200-day moving aver- age, a technically significant level last breached in March 2026 during the year's last major correction.The World Gold Council's June 1 Weekly Markets Mon- itor was headlined \"Point of Inflection\", noting that while the 200-day moving average test appeared routine on the surface, it carried deeper structural implications for the bull market. The WGC highlighted record Q1 2026 demand of $193 billion (up 74% in value year-on-year) as a key structural support at current levels. Central bank buying near record annual pace continued throughout the period. By 4 June, gold stabilised at $4,437 as traders awaited US jobs data and Fed remarks.In the past week, Brent fell 13.6% over the five-week period from $109.96 on 28 April to approximately $95.00 on 4 June, suffering its worst monthly perfor- mance since the COVID-19 pandemic. CNBC confirmed on 29 May that Brent was down almost 19% for the month of May alone as investors grew increasingly optimistic about a 60-day memorandum of under- standing between the US and Iran that would pause hostilities and partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The 29 May close was confirmed at $92.56. However, the market avoided a full collapse: Bob Parker of ICMA stated prices would remain $90–$100/b for months even with a deal, citing lasting Gulf infrastructure damage and residual shipping security risks.On 1 June, Brent surged more than 5% to approximate- ly $95 after Iranian media reported Tehran had suspended communications with Washington in protest at Israeli operations in Lebanon and was preparing to fully close the Strait again. By 4 June, prices remained near $95, up 4%, for the week, as the US and Iran traded fresh strikes near the Strait, and the Lebanon ceasefire remained fragile.
MarketswatchZiG Sees 6% Weekly Declinehe Zimbabwe Gold moved from ZiG25.2889 per dollar on 28 April to ZiG26.8841 on 4 June, a 6.3% official depreciation across the reporting period. That movement is material on a full-period reading and changes the narrow weekly band narrative in mid-May. It confirms that the official market has allowed part of the price adjustment to pass through the interbank rate, limiting the concentration of pressure in informal pricing channels.The inflation data improved at the same time. May ZiG year-on-year inflation eased to 4.37%, with month-on-month inflation at 0.48%. USD annual inflation stood at 2.82%, with USD month-on-month inflation at 0.34%. The combination of official depreciation and lower monthly inflation gives policymakers room to argue that exchange-rate adjustment has remained controlled. The key test is still liquidity. If ZiG supplier payments, Treasury instruments or domestic arrears settlement accelerate reserve-money growth, the currency premium will widen again even if the official rate stays orderly.The ZiG's full-period movement changes the interpretation of stability. The exchange rate weakened 6.3% through the official window and inflation cooled in May. Money-supply control, payment discipline and parallel-market premium management remain the decisive watchpoints.Parallel-market references continued to cluster around the ZiG30-35 per dollar area through late May and early June, keeping the premium material for pricing decisions. The premium remains a working-capital issue for importers, contractors and retailers that price replacement stock ahead of official-market settlement. Official stability is useful. The commercial market still trades with a premium cushion against liquidity surprises.Regional MarketsRand: Hike Delivered, Carry ReturnsThe South African rand entered the period under pressure from a stronger dollar and higher oil prices linked to Middle East supply disruption. The currency softened around 28 April, then moved through a volatile May as markets recalibrated the inflation path, the SARB reaction function and the growth cost attached to fuel-led price pressure. The 4 June close around R16.31 per dollar leaves the rand firmer across the full period, with early June levels back near the stronger side of the reporting range.The decisive event was the SARB's 25 basis-point rate increase to 7%. April CPI at 4.0% and the fuel-driven price jump forced the MPC to defend the new 3% inflation anchor more visibly. The hike gave the rand immediate yield support and reduced the risk of an unanchored inflation premium. It also changed the market reading of South African monetary policy: the SARB is prepared to absorb a growth cost to protect the inflation target and the currency risk premium.South Africa's report period was dominated by one sequence: 4.0% CPI, a 25 basis-point SARB hike to 7%, and a rand close back near R16.31/USD. Monetary defence carried the exchange-rate result; the PMI contraction carried the growth cost.Kwacha: Copper Flow Drives OutperformanceThe Zambian kwacha was the strongest currency in this report. The rate improved from roughly ZMW18.97 per dollar on 28 April to ZMW17.91 by 4 June, delivering an appreciation of about 5.6% across the period. Reuters market quotes on 4 June also placed the kwacha around ZMW17.92 per dollar, confirming that the move extended beyond thin trading and into broader market pricing.The drivers remain clear: elevated copper prices, steady mining-sector dollar inflows, national debt restructuring momentum and the dedollarisation directive have reinforced local-currency demand. The Bank of Zambia's May policy rate cut to 13.25% demonstrates confidence in the inflation path, with the central bank citing a favourable maize harvest and relative exchange-rate stability. The kwacha held gains after the rate cut because commodity inflows and debt credibility are doing the support work alongside interest-rate carry.Pula: Basket Stability, Diamond DragThe Botswana pula traded inside a narrow band, with Bank of Botswana data showing 1 pula at US$0.0759 on 28 April and US$0.0762 on 4 June. The implied USD/BWP rate moved from about BWP13.17 to BWP13.12, a modest strengthening of roughly 0.4%. The currency's path remained closely tied to the rand and the crawling-peg framework, with limited independent volatility.Botswana's currency setting remains defensive. The 2026 exchange-rate framework retains the downward rate of crawl at 2.7%, designed around the inflation differential between Botswana and its trading partners. Domestic inflation remains within the Bank of Botswana target band, which reduces pressure for a sharp policy response. The bigger drag is the diamond sector. Weak rough-diamond demand and lab-grown competition continue to reduce the external revenue cushion that historically supported the pula.Naira: Official Stability, Parallel Premium ContainedThe Nigerian naira ended the period almost exactly where it began in the official market. The NFEM rate stood around N1,360.19 per dollar on 28 April and around N1,360 on 4 June. This stability is important because it followed a period of oil-price volatility and renewed import demand, two forces that usually place immediate pressure on Nigeria's foreign-exchange market.The official-parallel spread remained contained by Nigerian historical standards, with Reuters placing the street market around N1,393 per dollar on 4 June and market trackers showing quotes near N1,395-N1,400. FX sales by international oil firms helped official liquidity during the first week of June. The naira therefore remained supported by formal-market supply and a narrower Shilling: Stable FX, Weaker Private-Sector PulseKSh129.575/USD, May PMI: 46.6The Kenyan shilling remained one of the most stable currencies in the report. It traded around KSh129.3 per dollar at the beginning of the period and around KSh129.3-KSh129.5 by 4 June. Reuters market quotes placed the shilling at 129.25/35 per dollar on 4 June, supported by diaspora inflows and the Central Bank of Kenya's managed-float framework.The domestic backdrop weakened. Kenya's May PMI fell to 46.6 from 49.4 in April, the sharpest deterioration since July 2024, with weak demand and fuel-related price pressure affecting new work. Inflation rose to 6.7% in May from 5.6% in April, driven largely by fuel costs. The shilling's stability therefore rests on external inflows and reserves at a time when private-sector activity is contracting.Kenya's exchange-rate stability is credible. The operating economy is absorbing higher fuel costs. The CBK has room to keep the currency steady and limited room to ignore the demand slowdown.The AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 25T
ZSE & VFEX WEEKLY COMMENTARYhe ZSE took a breather in the week under review, partially reversing prior week’s gains as investors take out gains garnered in May amid fears of increased inflationary pressures. The ZSE All Share Index suffered a -0.73% decline week-on-week to Friday to close at 389.26 points, driven by sell-offs in market heavies and medium caps. Year-to-date, the ZSE All Share Index is up 40.1% (35.2% in US$ terms), which compares to a 27.7% nominal growth (26.8% in US$ terms) registered in 2025, and a 117.6% nominal growth (14.4% in US$ terms) achieved in 2024. In May, the ZSE mainstream index gained 6.6% (0.4% in USD terms), buttressing a nominal 1.8% (1.8% in US$ terms) growth achieved in April.The US$ denominated bourse, VFEX, sustained a positive trajectory throughout the holiday-shortened week, building on prior week's gains as investor morale improves amid a slow-down in MoM inflation. The mainstream VFEX All Share Index climbed by a further 3.81% against prior week to close at 245.12 points, driven by 7 risers which outweighed 4 laggards. The market strengthened by 7.1% in May, countering a -8.4% decline registered in April. The All-share index has climbed 38.6% year-to-date, compared to a staggering 70% growth achieved in 2025, and a mild growth of 4.1% registered in 2024. An aggregate of US$1,847,604 exchanged hands this week, down from US$5,542,681 traded in the prior week.On currency markets, the exchange rate has sustained stability for over a year amid a prolonged contractionary monetary policy since September 2024. A policy rate of 35%, since then, which has remained above the exchange premium which presently hovers at an average 31%, has significantly discouraged speculative borrowing and trading. Consequently, the parallel ex-rate has remained stable, with a positive year-to-date movement. The ZiG depreciated by -2.22% against the USD on the interbank market this week to close at ZWG26.92 per each US$.TThe AXiS CCXVII Friday 05 Jun 2026 26ZSE ASI VFEX ASI ZWG INTERBANK RATE 27/0528/0529/0601/0602/0603/0627/0528/0529/0601/0602/0603/0627/0528/0529/0601/0602/0603/06393.66 238.49391.12 244.09389.26 245.12385.95 232.42386.06 232.78389.31 229.62-1.11% -3.72%26.4626.8926.9226.8526.8926.85-1.44%ZSE TOP 10 INDEX MEDIUM CAP INDEX SMALL CAP INDEX 100.11100.11100.11100.11100.11100.110.00%388.40384.96384.31379.59380.60384.6715/0518/0519/0520/0521/0522/05-0.96%443.73445.06437.76440.52436.67436.4727/0528/0529/0601/0602/0603/06-1.64% 27/0528/0529/0601/0602/0603/06
TOP 5 WEEKLY RISERSTOP 5 WEEKLY FALLERS FINANCIAL MARKETS AT A GLANCE 2025AFDISARISTONBATCFIDELTADAIRIBORDHIPPOMEIKLESOKSEEDCOSTAR AFRICATSLTanganda 1580.48618499.956003000.55236.31000.0530011.36944023.51600597.62791580.48616300.056003076.26295.5960306.95311.36944014649524.2698Latest PriceZiG CentsPrevious WeekZiG CentsConsumerStaplesRTG 18.009 18.009Latest PriceZWL CentsConsumer Previous WeekZWL CentsCAFCAG/BELTINGSMASIMBANAMPAKUNIFREIGHTZECO1450.0511.95343.9597.251500.00181300.11234985.31750.0018Latest PriceZiG CentsIndustrialsSectorPrevious WeekZiG CentsARTZDRPROPLASTICSTURNALLWilldaleRioZim6.8054123.259.023.6765756.8054123.259.023.676575Latest PriceZiG CentsMaterialsSectorPrevious WeekZiG CentsTN CYBERTECHZIMPAPERS14.57.02157.02Latest PriceZiG CentsICTSectorPrevious WeekZiG CentsMASHHOLDFMP111121.25129.8105.4407Latest PriceZiG CentsReal EstateSectorPrevious WeekZiG CentsTANGANDAFMPNAMPAKCAFCAZSE LTD524.27121.2597.251450.05110.0013816121501035.8%15.0%14.0%11.5%10.0%COUNTER PRICE CENTS CHANGE % CHANGE MASHHOLDUNIFREIGHTARISTONFBCHTSL111.00150.006.001000.81649.00 (19) (25) (1) (99) (32)-14.5%-14.3%-12.4%-9.0%-4.7% COUNTER PRICE CENTS CHANGE ANGE Interbank Market Rate 26.32-1.93% ZSE Top 10 Index 381.442.36% ZSE All Share Index 384.842.58% NGSE All Share Index 249,175.4-0.46%11,1450.13%BSE All Share Index LuSE All Share Index 25,888.21-0.37%VFEX All Share Index 223.35-1.52% JSE All Share Index 115,162.1-2.31%CBZFBCHFIDELITYFMLNMBZZBFHZHLZSE Holdings16001000.8157.8513186.119652552069.964711016001099.7657.8513186.6667520.0553065100Latest PriceZiG CentsFinancialSectorPrevious WeekZiG Cents389.26437.76ZSE Medium Cap IndexZSE All Share indexMedium Cap indexWOW -2.6% MoM 17.1% YTD 57.4%389.26308.46ZSE Consumer Staples IndexZSE All Share indexZSE Consumers Staples indexWOW -0.9% MoM 12.7% YTD 32%389.26160.28ZSE Materials IndexZSE All Share indexZSE Materials IndexWOW -4.9% MoM -10.3% YTD 0.1%115096.5389.26JSE All Share Index JSE All Share IndexZSE All Share indexWOW 1.7% MoM -3.1% YTD -0.6%248651.7389.26NGSE All Share Index NGSE All Share IndexZSE All Share indexWOW -0.4% MoM 17.3% YTD 59.8%25596.91389.26LUSE All Share IndexLUSE All Share IndexZSE All Share indexWOW -0.7% MoM -4.5% YTD -1.3%-6.5%7.6%Interbank MarketInterbank MoM Mvt.ZSE All Share index389.26400.34ZSE ICT IndexZSE All Share indexZSE ICT IndexWOW 0% MoM -2.5% YTD 48.8%389.26853.98ZSE Consumer Discretionary IndexZSE All Share indexZSE Consumer Discretionary indexWOW -0.7% MoM 2.4% YTD 13.7%389.26384.31ZSE Top 10 IndexZSE All Share indexZSE Top10 indexWOW -0.3% MoM 5.4% YTD 36.4%389.26245.12VFEX All Share IndexZSE All Share index VFEX All Share IndexWOW 3.8% MoM 2.8% YTD 38.6%389.26299.92ZSE Financials SectorZSE All Share indexZSE Financials indexWOW 0.7% MoM -0.9% YTD -1%389.26169.86ZSE Industrials Index (New)ZSE All Share indexZSE Industrials Index (new)WOW -10.2% MoM 9.7% YTD 23.7%389.26648.97ZSE Real Estate IndexZSE All Share index ZSE Real Estate IndexWOW -0.5% MoM 4.4% YTD 5.4%11145389.26BSE All Share IndexBSE All Share IndexZSE All Share indexWOW 0% MoM 0.3% YTD 1.0%
Regional Economic WatchThe West African gold, oil, and cocoa-producing country’s economy is on the mend after a 2022 debt default that required restructuring of the government’s external and domestic debt.NigeriaNigeria’s upstream oil regulator said on Wednesday the country will start its 2026 oil licensing round in the third quarter after securing min- isterial approval, as it seeks to sustain investor interest in the sector. The move highlights Nigeria’s push to run back-to-back licensing rounds to sustain upstream investment momentum in Africa’s top oil producer. Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission chief Oritsemey- iwa Eyesan said the commercial bid phase of this year’s round will take place in July, with the 2026 round to follow shortly. Eyesan said rising investment and oil output pointed to a more attractive sector after recent policy moves to stabilise operations and draw in capital. Nigeria lowered the entry barriers to attract investors for the latest oil round.ZambiaZambia has extended the suspension of a 10% duty on copper concen- trate exports to September 30, to help clear stockpiles of unprocessed material as the country’s major smelters undergo extended mainte- nance and repairs. Copper miners in Africa’s second-largest producer of the metal used in electrical infrastructure are undertaking lengthy smelt- er maintenance programmes following technical challenges that have impacted processed output.Zambia mostly exports its copper in the form of refined cathodes, rather than as concentrate. The country exported 890,346 metric tons of copper in 2025 and plans to raise national output to 3 million tons by 2031. The suspension of the duty, first implemented in August 2025, covers 271,742 tons of copper concentrates, according to a government notice seen by Reuters on Wednesday.Mopani Copper Mines, jointly owned by Abu Dhabi-based International Resources Holding and Zambia’s state mining company ZCCM-IH, has the largest duty-free export quota of 100,000 tons of copper concen- trates. Barrick Mining Corp’s Lumwana Mining Company has a quota of 56,986 metric tons, followed by First Quantum Minerals and the Chinese-owned Nkana Mining and Minerals Processing, with about 43,000 tons each. Lubambe Copper Mine, 70% owned by China’s JCHX Mining, has a 15,000-ton duty-free export quota, while Vedanta’s Konko- la Copper Mines has a quota of 12,541 tons, according to the govern- ment notice.AfricaThe Africa Finance Corporation raised $2 billion via a syndicated loan – the largest in its history – to support infrastructure and industrial growth.AFC Chief Executive Samaila Zubairu told Reuters that the money would enable “more master planning around infrastructure and industrial plan- ning for economies”, regions and economic corridors across the conti- nent. AFC initially sought $1.6 billion via the facility but scaled it up to $2 billion amid strong demand. The loan, Zubairu said, underscored AFC’s strong track record, pointing to its financing for projects including Nigeria’s Dan- gote oil refinery and Africa’s largest copper smelter in the Democratic Republic of Congo..”Barclays, Commerzbank, First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC, and FirstRand Bank led the debt facility. AFC, founded in 2007, has assets surpassing $19 billion and counts 48 African countries as members.In January, the infrastructure-focused multilateral lender secured an A rating from S&P. It has an A3 rating from Moody’s, an AAAspc rating from S&P Ratings (China) and an A+ rating from the Japan Credit Rating Agency.KenyaKenya’s private sector activity shrank for a third straight month in May, hurt by a general rise in costs for both businesses and their customers, a survey showed on Thursday.The Stanbic Bank Kenya Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 46.6 in May from 49.4 a month earlier. Readings above 50.0 indicate growth in busi- ness activity, while those below that signal contraction. The May figure was the fastest drop since July 2024.Inflation rose to 6.7% year-on-year in May from 5.6% in April, hitting its highest in more than two years largely due to fuel price hikes linked to the Iran war. Kenya’s statistics office said in late April it forecasts the economy will expand 4.9% in 2026, compared with 4.6% last year.GhanaGhana’s president and finance minister said on Wednesday that African debt was “mispriced” and there needed to be faster and fairer restructur- ing tools, adding that their country was targeting an investment-grade credit rating within three years. President John Dramani Mahama and Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson made the comments at an investor conference in London.28 The AXiS CCXVII Friday 04 Jun 2026*From Page 4EQUITY AXISfifffflffiflffiFinancial insights at your fingertips.flflfl flffi fl fl fl flflfifl www.equityaxis.netEquity Axis Head Office32 Lawson Avenue, Milton Park, Harare, Zimbabwet: +263 (08677) 197791 c:+263 773 782 392 | 773 037 422 [email protected] us