The Inter-University Symposium on Asian Megacities, Seoul, South Korea, July 11–13, 2024 Figure 1. Bayankhoshuu ger area Planning and implementation of Ulaanbaatar Green, Affordable Housing at Ger area Gantulga Nergui1 , Purev-Erdene Ershuu2 , Minjin Sodnomtseren3 1 AHURP, Deputy Team Leader, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, [email protected], 2 Associate Professor of MUST, Former consultant of the project [email protected] 3 PhD candidate of MUST, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, [email protected], ABSTRACT Mongolia faces significant urban challenges due to rapid population growth concentrated in Ulaanbaatar, with suboptimal living conditions exacerbated by heavy traffic, pollutions, and insufficient infrastructure, especially in the ger area. To address these issues, the Green Affordable Housing (GAH) initiative is introduced, focusing on environmentally friendly urban planning and energy-efficient building design. Despite obstacles like low income and sparse research on green building, GAH shows promise, with ongoing construction in two ger area sites, aiming for completion by Q4 2024. Resettlement efforts include land evaluations and low-interest mortgage programs. However, escalating construction costs pose a challenge, necessitating careful management. The conclusion stresses the importance of green-financed mortgages and community engagement to tackle Ulaanbaatar's urban development challenges sustainably. Keywords: Times Roman, image area, acronyms, references 1. INTRODUCTION The rapid growth of Mongolia’s population, reaching 3,340,454 in 2022 and an annual growth rate of 1.8%, poses unprecedented challenges in Ulaanbaatar city, where 46.9% of the total population is concentrated. Families, averaging 3.55 individuals, face suboptimal living conditions, especially in the ger area where 53% reside, amidst issues of heavy traffic, air and soil pollution, and insufficient infrastructure. Projections indicate that by 2050, the population will soar beyond 5 million, intensifying these challenges. Despite an annual upswing in supplied apartment housing (23,201 new apartment units in 2022), the demand remains unmet, particularly in the ger area. In response to these challenges, the introduction of Green, Affordable Housing (GAH) emerges as a possible solution. This initiative aims to reduce environmental impact and elevate living conditions through enhanced polycentric urban planning. The project strategically plans and implements GAH in two ger district sites, incorporating resilient urban planning, energy-efficient building design, and targeted low-income
First Author, Second Author and Third Author 2 programs. Despite obstacles like low income and sparse green building studies, the GAH, integrating 20% energy efficiency, low-interest green financing, and targeted low-income mortgage programs, demonstrates promising feasibility. 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1.Ulaanbaatar city brief 2.1.1. Geography and population of city and ger area Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia's dynamic capital, has witnessed a remarkable surge in population since the early 1990s, fueled by a confluence of historical transitions and climatic pressures, notably the harsh winter seasons that spurred nomadic migrations [1]. This demographic explosion has chiefly unfolded in the ger areas, characterized by sprawling, low-density settlements devoid of essential urban amenities. Housing predominantly comprises traditional Mongolian gers with wooden structures, beset by inadequate insulation and inefficient heating systems, exacerbating susceptibility to climate change impacts and perpetuating elevated levels of greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. Despite encompassing a mere 0.3% of Mongolia's vast landmass, Ulaanbaatar stands as the epicenter of the nation's economic activity, contributing a substantial 63% to the domestic product and hosting over 60% of its enterprises. With an estimated population of 1.73 million [2], representing approximately 46.9% of the country's populace, the city's demographic density underscores the urgency for strategic urban planning and sustainable development initiatives to ameliorate the social, environmental, and infrastructural deficits prevalent in its rapidly expanding ger areas. Nearly half, or approximately 53%, of Ulaanbaatar's urban population resides in the ger areas, underscoring the significant demographic presence and the critical need for targeted housing and urban development initiatives. 2.1.2. Pollutions and challenges Ulaanbaatar city has undergone rapid urbanization over the past thirty years, driven by a significant influx of rural migrants seeking opportunities in the city. However, this growth has led to the expansion of suburban residential areas that often fail to meet urban standards. Despite its natural beauty, Ulaanbaatar faces severe pollution challenges, particularly air pollution, ranking it among the most polluted capital cities globally. The primary contributor is the burning of coal for heating during harsh winter months, compounded by inefficient heating systems and inadequate dwelling insulation prevalent in the ger áreas. Data reveals that a staggering 80% of Ulaanbaatar's air pollution stems from these domestic sources, resulting in alarmingly high levels of particulate matter that pose grave health risks to its inhabitants [3]. Compounding the issue is the mismanagement of solid waste, with over 1.1 million tons of garbage deposited annually [4]. Water resources face escalating pressures, with demand doubling over the past two decades [5]. Groundwater depletion and soil pollution further exacerbate environmental concerns, driven by inadequate waste management practices and industrial activities [6]. Consequently, Ulaanbaatar has become synonymous with greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution and other pollution, posing substantial health risks to its residents
First Author, Second Author and Third Author 3 and exacerbating environmental degradation. Beyond pollution, the city grapples with deficient urban infrastructure, housing shortages, and socioeconomic disparities, especially pronounced in the ger areas. 2.2.Current urban planning conditions 2.2.1. Ger area planning Ulaanbaatar's Ger areas pose a unique urban planning challenge due to their sprawling nature and inadequate infrastructure. Historically, these areas lacked comprehensive planning, leading to haphazard growth and a lack of basic amenities. To address these issues, the Mongolian government initiated the "Ger Area Development Program" in collaboration with international partners [7]. This program aims to enhance living conditions through infrastructure upgrades, land tenure regularization, and community empowerment initiatives. Additionally, integrating informal settlements into the formal urban fabric and promoting participatory planning processes are crucial for fostering sustainable and inclusive development. 2.2.2. Polycentric urban planning Polycentric Urban Planning is a crucial element of Ulaanbaatar's developmental vision, as outlined in the General Development Plan endorsed by Order No. 23 of the State Ikh Khural in 2013. This approach signifies a departure from a monocentric urban model to a polymetric urban planning model. The primary aim is to promote sustainable settlement systems while preserving the city's ecological balance and encouraging economic diversification. The "General Development Plan 2040" identifies several sub-centers, including Bayankhoshuu, Selbe, Amgalan, Sonsgolon, Yaarmag, and New subcenters [8], slated for the development of green industries and as integrated, competitive, and relatively balanced regions for economic integration. Through meticulous planning of these sub-centers, the overarching objective is to ensure that residents can access their daily necessities and essential services within a 20-minute neighborhood concept, regardless of their location. The 20-minute neighborhood concept emphasizes local living, enabling individuals to meet most of their daily needs within a short walk from home [9]. This strategy reflects a forward-thinking approach aimed at fostering equitable development and enhancing the overall quality of life for Ulaanbaatar's residents. Figure 2. Polycentric Urban Planning of Ulaanbaatar city
First Author, Second Author and Third Author 4 2.3.Real estate market/affordability The housing market in Ulaanbaatar has experienced notable shifts, influenced by both longterm trends and short-term factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite a prolonged period of decline from 2014 to 2020, regulatory changes, notably Minister of Construction and Urban Development's Order No. 203 of 2016, catalyzed a sharp uptick in housing supply prices. By the end of 2023, the average price per square meter for new apartments surged to 3.8 million MNT, marking a significant increase from previous quarters [10]. This rise underscores the market's resilience and the pivotal role of regulatory interventions in shaping housing affordability. Looking ahead, research forecasts a continued upward trajectory, with prices projected to reach 4.8 million MNT per square meter over the next five years. Such projections pose challenges for prospective buyers while signaling opportunities for growth and investment in Ulaanbaatar's real estate sector. As stakeholders navigate these dynamics, proactive measures to address affordability concerns and promote sustainable development will be crucial in ensuring a resilient and inclusive housing market. 2.3.1. Ger area market In housing and real estate research, many organizations adopt a district-based classification system to analyze housing supply. However, this approach overlooks the crucial concept of housing market concentration or zoning. To address this limitation, the housing market of Ulaanbaatar city is divided into 20 zoning areas grouped into 4 categories. This zoning framework offers a more nuanced understanding of housing dynamics, allowing researchers to delve deeper into market trends and address specific needs within each zone. Embracing this zoning approach enhances the precision and utility of research findings, benefiting policymakers, developers, and residents by offering a more accurate portrayal of the housing landscape. Notably, the ger area falls within zone C, underscoring its significance in the city's lack housing market dynamics. Figure 3. Real state market zoning of Ulaanbaatar city
First Author, Second Author and Third Author 5 Table 1. Apartment selling unit price of 2023 Q1 of Ulaanbaatar city (million MNT / 1m2) Table 2. Monthly household income range and Possible mortgage monthly payment (MNT) 2 Luxury High-class Business-class Medium-class Standard AA zone 11.6 7.5 4.6 3.9 2.7 A zone - 6.1 4.6 3.1 2.7 B zone - - 4.1 3.5 2.8 C zone - - 3.6 2.9 2.6 2.3.2. Affordability Supported by the World Bank, the "Affordable Housing Strategy of Ulaanbaatar City" initially utilized data from the 2012 "Household Socio-Economic Survey" to categorize household income into nine groups [11]. Despite these efforts, housing affordability remains a pressing issue in Ulaanbaatar, especially in the ger areas, where many residents face financial challenges. In response to this ongoing concern, a revised study was undertaken in 2022 to update and refine the understanding of low-income residents' situations. This revision highlights the urgent need for regulatory interventions and targeted policies to ensure housing accessibility across all income brackets. Furthermore, it underscores the importance of initiatives focused on sustainable development and infrastructure enhancement in these areas to achieve long-term affordability and foster inclusive growth No Monthly household income (MNT) Target household type Debt-to-income ratio Possible mortgage monthly payment (MNT) (1) 1 800,000- less Social 30% 240,000 2 800,001 – 1,058,000 30% 317,400 3 1,058,001 – 1,300,000 30% 390,000 4 1,300,001 – 1,476,000 Affordable 45% 664,200 5 1,476,001 – 1,700,000 45% 765,000 6 1,700,001 – 1,990,700 45% 895,815 7 1,990,701 – 2,800,000 45% 1,019,250 8 2,800,001 – 4,550,000 Market 45% 1,260,000 9 4,550,000- more 45% 2,047,500 Possible mortgage monthly payment calculation (PMMP) for housing: () = ℎ ℎℎ () × (%) (1) As shown in Table 2, the project targets households whose monthly income falls between the social and affordable ranges. Conversely, households with monthly incomesin the market range can afford market-rate housing.
First Author, Second Author and Third Author 6 3. PLANNING 3.1.Urban planning 3.1.1. Zoning Zoning plays a crucial role in the planning and implementation of the Ulaanbaatar Green, Affordable Housing project in the Ger area. By delineating different zones within the city, urban planners can strategically allocate resources and designate areas for specific purposes, such as residential, commercial, and industrial use. In the context of the Ger area, zoning can help ensure that new housing developments adhere to green and sustainable principles while also addressing the unique needs of the community. For instance, zoning regulations can promote mixed land use, integrating residential areas with green spaces, amenities, and public transportation hubs to create vibrant and livable neighborhoods. By establishing clear zoning guidelines, the project can foster cohesive and environmentally conscious urban development in the Ger area. 3.1.2. Eco-district planning Determining the boundaries of eco-districts for residential housing is a critical aspect of the project. To establish these boundaries, several factors are considered, including the fundamental principles of urban planning, mechanisms for selecting redevelopment sites, local demand and demographics, community engagement, available infrastructure, road networks, the presence of public social buildings, and existing general plans and topographical maps. Once the boundaries are delineated, the next step involves developing a comprehensive plan for the eco-neighborhood's future development and implementing appropriate strategies. The average density in Ulaanbaatar city is approximately 369.1 person per hectare [12]. However, in the ger area, it is approximately 40-50 person per hectare. To improve living conditions in the Ger neighborhoods and ensure parity with the city center, the project aims to achieve an average density of 350 person per hectare. As part of the Ulaanbaatar Green Housing Project, a preliminary study on residential zoning has identified the boundaries of eco-neighborhoods in Bayankhoshuu and Sharkhad sub-centers, marking a significant step forward in sustainable urban redevelopment. Figure 4. Land use zoning of Sharkhad subcenter Figure 5. Land use zoning of Bayankhoshuu subcenter
First Author, Second Author and Third Author 7 3.2.Architecture planning 3.2.1. Building design The buildings, spanning 4 to 5 stories with dimensions of approximately 16.8m by 29.4m, efficiently accommodate 6 to 8 units per floor. This layout optimizes land use while providing housing for a significant number of residents. Notably, 10% of these housing units are specifically tailored to accommodate individuals with disabilities, ensuring inclusivity and accessibility within the housing project. The architectural design, featuring traditional Mongolian patterns on the facades, adds visual interest and reflects the local cultural identity. With apartment sizes ranging from 35 to 80 square meters, the project offers flexible living spaces suitable for various household sizes. 3.2.2. Green building Certified as EDGE (Excellence in Design for Greater Efficiencies), the project epitomizes a beacon of sustainable development principles. This prestigious accreditation underscores the project's unwavering commitment to environmental stewardship, emphasizing the astute Figure 6. Building design of Bayankhoshuu subcenter Figure 7. Building design of Bayankhoshuu subcenter Figure 8. Building design green criteria of AHURP subcenter
First Author, Second Author and Third Author 8 utilization of energy, water, and materials to curtail ecological impact. By prioritizing green building practices, the project aims to minimize overall energy consumption through a combination of passive and active strategies. Each building within the project is mandated to achieve a minimum 20% reduction in whole building energy consumption compared to ASHRAE 90.1 2016 standards. Additionally, individual buildings are required to maintain a thermal energy intensity of no more than 151 kWh/m²/year, encompassing energy use related to heating and ventilation demands. The embodied carbon footprint of construction materials needs to be considered as one of the project's green criteria. Due to the previous lack of studies in the Mongolian construction sector, the carbon footprint of each material needs to be studied substantially throughout the project. 4. IMPLEMENTATION 4.1.Ressetlement effort 4.1.1. Consultations In pursuit of transparency and effective stakeholder engagement, communication strategy prioritized the dissemination of project updates and pertinent information through various channels. Community workshops, information boards, and local media outlets served as key conduits for keeping stakeholders informed and fostering a sense of ownership and awareness within the affected communities. The enhanced communication approach involved proactive engagement with the communities, providing regular updates on project progress and revised construction schedules through various consultations including safeguard and gender, planning and design, enviromental protections etc. The community consultations mainly focus on each stage of the planning, design and constructions. The project team introduced AHURP and its design and planning concept, and further discussed environmental safeguards and public safety, aligning with the overall objective of empowering residents to submit concerns during construction. 4.1.2. Land and Asset Swapping Willing to Participate Survey (WPS) The objective of the Willingness to Participate Survey (WPS) is to define interests of households in participating in the Voluntary Land Swapping (VLS) under AHURP. The WPS is targeted to be conducted with 100% of titled households and non-tilted households living at the eco-districts and it’s impacted area. In the reporting period, the WPS was conducted at Bayankhoshuu and Sharkhad sites in 2022, 2023. Figure 9. Consultation at Bayankhoshuu site
First Author, Second Author and Third Author 9 Table 3. Responses about willingness to participate in the project by number and percentage at Sharkhad site The project information campaign and consultations was conducted to ensure residents received information about the Eco-District and land-swapping process to discuss within their household. Once residents had sufficient information about the project, they were asked to express their willingness in a follow-up survey administered by the project team during in person sessions with residents. A total of 98 households (60 titled and 38 non-titled) completed the Willingness to Participate Survey (WPS) of which 95% were willing to participate in Sharkhad and total of 110 households completed the Willingness to Participate Survey (WPS) of which 87% were willing to participate in Bayankhoshuu. # Willingness to participate status # of HH % 1 Willing to participate 94 95 2 Not willing to participate 4 5s Sub-total 98 100 Findings on housing preferences were similar among titled and non-titled households and in line with the project plans. Residents of both titled and non-titled households showed the highest interest in medium sized apartments (46–60 m2), but the general trend was that nontitled households preferred 2-room apartment units, while titled households preferred 3-room apartment units. Regarding housing arrangement for accessing the apartment units, it is notable that only 8% of non-titled households preferred rental only arrangement, while 72.9% expressed that they’d prefer rent-to-own, and 43.2% would prefer to purchase the apartment unit with low interest long term morgage loan. Socio-Economic Survey/Data Collection The project conducted the Socio-economic survey (SES) targeted for the Phase 1 Eco-District in Bayankhoshuu in 2021. The data was collected from September 27 to October 27 the previous year and covered 117 households in the project targeted areas of 8th and 9th khoroo of Bayankhoshuu district. The report showed that 52% of adult household members had fulltime jobs, 3% part-time jobs, and 4% had seasonal jobs which total to 59% of household members being employed. The remainder 41% are unemployed which showed a concerning aspect within the economic capacity of the community. After excluding a few very large business incomes, the average household income at Bayankhoshuu was 1.5 million a month. It is rather low considering the average number of family members in the households at Bayankhoshuu was 4, pushing the income per member to 375,000 MNT per month which was barely 100,000MNT higher than the Minimum subsistence level of income (277,800MNT per person per month). Involuntary Resettlement According to the approved detailed design drawings, incase of the household will be affected by the construction work of critical infrastruture intended to supply housing units, this method shall be placed. Consultation and negotiations with the affected household took place based on the third party approved land asset evaluations. In Sharkhad and Bayankhoshuu site, a mutual agreement was successfully reached with the affected household and a tripartite agreement for
First Author, Second Author and Third Author 10 Figure 10. Construction at Bayankhoshuu site Figure 11. Construction at Sharkhad site involuntary resettlement with compensation was signed. Voluntary Resettlement Currently, AHURP has been proceeding with organizing public consultations with Bayankhoshuu residents to disclose the price of housing units and negotiate with local residents as a last step of the resettlement process. Significant efforts were made to establish the swapping price of the housing units that are being constructed in Bayankhoshuu and Sharkhad. For instance, key stakeholders from the Mayor’s Office of Ulaanbaatar city and finding parties of the project convened a meeting to reach a consensus on the price of housing units under construction and defining certain subsity to lower swapping price of the housing units. Given the uncertainty of viability of voluntary resettlement, the project team sought the possibility of introducing alternative resettlement approaches. Depending on the outcome of the ongoing voluntary resettlement on Bayankhoshuu site, voluntary resettlement might be reconsidered and an alternative land acquisition measure might be sought in the future. 4.2. Construction 4.2.1. Progress and challenges As shown in the Figure 6 and 7, two construction sites of the GAH at Sharkhad sub-center and Bayankhoshuu sub-center, progress of those two construction sites currently reached 50% and it is scheduled to finish in Q4 of 2024. In addition to that, all related offsite and onsite infrastructure servicing civil work constructions are ongoing, and it is scheduled to finish same time. Moreover, it is observed that due to a lack of previousstudy and experience, local civil work contractors are facing challenges in finding and constructing with new green materials. The supply of these new construction materials like cellular glass insulation shown in the figure 12 is limited in the local construction market. In order to overcome these challenges, the project is mobilizing international experts Figure 12. Cellular glass insulation through its consultancy to provide technical
First Author, Second Author and Third Author 11 support for these construction activities. For those two projects only, a total of 220 apartment units, commercialspace, 52 indoor parking garages, and a greenhouse will be scheduled to be completed and ready for occupancy late this year in 2024. 4.2.2. Financing In 2018, MUB, ADB, and GCF signed the Funded Activity Agreement (FAA), and cofinancing of AHURP and five separate funding agreements for grant and loan modalities were established. The loan and grant agreements were established between ADB and the Ministry of Finance and have been effective since October 2019. The ongoing project budget is financed by Loan 3694 MON ADB-Ordinary Capital Resources, totaling US$60.00 million. 5. RESULT AND DISCUSSION 5.1.Challenges and Solutions 5.1.1. Ressetlement Voluntary Resettlement The escalated housing prices do not match the land asset evaluation prices of the ger areas, and this price gap affects the viability of voluntary resettlement. Moreover, non-title households who do not own the land but live in the one hashaa pose challenges for this resettlement effort. Based on the challenges of voluntary resettlement, alternative land acquisition measures need to be sought, and a long-term social housing program could be suitable for overcoming the nontitle household challenge. 5.1.2. Affordability Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the price of building materials and construction costs has almost tripled. As a result, the unit price of housing units has constantly increased, with the city average currently reaching 3.8 million MNT (US$1,117) per square meter. However, the household income in the ger area has not increased, and the city average household income per month was 2.4 million MNT (US$705) by Q4, 2023. Based on the ger area monthly household income, long-term mortgage analysis shows that the affordability of the unit price per square meter of an apartment is just 2.9 million MNT (US$852). The gap between the market unit price of the apartment and affordability is almost 1 million MNT (US$294) per square meter, and targeted subsidies and long-term low-interest mortgage programs could be one solution for this challenge. 5.1.3. Green technology Currently, green technology, green materials, and their standards are new to the Mongolian construction sector. The lack of technical studies and previous experience creates challenges in introducing green technologies such as the EDGE standard, which aims to save on energy
First Author, Second Author and Third Author 12 efficiency, water usage, and the embodied carbon footprint of materials. Local green standards for buildings are under development, and projects like AHURP are participating in and supporting local institutes and agencies through capacity building and policy reform initiatives. 5.1.4. Financing Given the challenges mentioned earlier such as voluntary land swapping, low affordability, and the adoption of green technology, it'simperative to establish appropriate financing mechanisms, or else the development of ger areas may become unfeasible. To address these financial hurdles, initiatives such as grants for green technology, low-interest housing mortgages, and the implementation of suitable social housing programs are necessary. 6. REFERENCE [1] M. N. S. Office, “Statistical study of population movement and resettlement in Mongolia based on recent census data,” Mongolian National Statistic Office, Ulaanbaatar, 2011. [2] M. N. S. Office, “Recent Data,” Ulaanbaatar, 2023. [3] W. H. Organization, “Air pollution in Mongolia,” Ulaanbaatar, 2019. [4] B. M. a. T. O, “"Улаанбаатар хотын төвлөрсөн хог хаягдлын цэгүүдээс хүрээлэн буй орчинд үзүүлэх нөлөөлөл,",” 4. B. M. and T. O., "Улаанбаатар хотын төвлөрсөн хог хаягдлын цэгүүдээс хүрээлэн буй орчинд үзүүлэх нөлөөлөл," Mongolian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 20, no. 01, pp. 165–172, Ulaanbaatar, 2017. [5] C. B. a. D. D. C. Sonomdava, “ "Улаанбаатар хотын суурьшлын бүсийн хөрсний бохирдлын судалгааны зарим дүн",” Proceedings of the Mongolian Academy of Sciences, vol. 56, no. 01, pp. 114–126, Ulaanbaatar, 2016. [6] O.Batkhishig, “"Улаанбаатар хотын хөрсний бохирдол,",” Proceedings of the Mongolian Academy of Sciences, vol. 53, no. 1, pp. 15–19, Ulaanbaatar, 2016. [7] M. Municipality of Ulaanbaatar, “Ulaanbaatar Urban Services and Ger Areas Development Investment Program,” Ulaanbaatar, 2015. [8] U. P. a. R. Institute, “Master Plan of Ulaanbaatar City Until 2040,,” Ulaanbaatar, 2023. [9] M. H. L. C. N. R. R. Y. M. A. T.M. Logan, “The x-minute city: Measuring the 10, 15, 20-minute city and an evaluation of its use for sustainable urban design,” ., 2022. [10] T. Zuuch, “Real Estate Market Of Ulaanbaatar City Research Report 2023.Q4,” Ulaanbaatar, 2023. [11] T. A. t. D. a. A. H. S. f. Ulaanbaatar, “Affordable Housing Strategy for Ulaanbaatar,” Ulaanbaatar, 2014. [12] M. N. S. Office, “ Recent Data,” Ulaanbaatar, 2023.